Robert Brusca

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081027e.jpg" width="353">
Europe&#146;s money supply growth and credit growth do not show signs of further slowing in September. Growth is slower that it has been over the past 12months but 3-month growth rates are about the same or a bit higher than 6-month rates of growth. In the US and the UK rates of growth in three months have picked up beyond those for their respective 12-month paces. In Japan money growth rates are very low and continue to ease. The grow rates for real money balances actually look a bit stronger all around except in Japan. 
As the financial problems have gotten worse one thing we have seen is that money supply numbers have bulged. Money demand has three components: precautionary, speculative and transactions demand. We tend to look at increases in money supply as being for transactions demand but in times such as these the precautionary element could be spiking as investors ditch riskier investments and flock to bank deposits. I would not look at the pick up in money growth or in the growth in real money balances as something that is inflationary for that reason. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr><th colspan="8" scope="col">Look at Global and Euro Liquidity Trends </th>

</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Saar-all</td>
<td colspan="3">Euro Measures (E13): Money &amp; Credit</td>
<td colspan="3">G-10 Major Markets: Money</td>
<td>Memo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&#128;&#128;-Supply M2</td>
<td>Credit:Resid</td>
<td>Loans</td>
<td>$US M2</td>
<td>&pound;&pound;UK M4</td>
<td>&yen;&yen;Jpn M2+Cds</td>
<td>OIL:WTI</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">3-MO</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>-63.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">6-MO</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>14.3%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">12-MO</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>10.5%</td>
<td>8.7%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>30.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2Yr</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>12.3%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>27.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">3Yr</td>
<td>9.6%</td>
<td>11.2%</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>13.0%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>16.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Real Balances: deflated by Own CPI. Oil deflated by US CPI</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">3-MO</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-64.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">6-MO</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-8.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">12-MO</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>24.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2Yr</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>22.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">3Yr</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>9.6%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>12.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Europes money supply growth and credit growth do not show signs of further slowing in September. Growth is slower that it has been over the past 12months but 3-month growth rates are about the same or a bit higher than 6-month rates [...]

Money Supply Growth Stabilizes

Louise Curley

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081027d.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
It is no surprise, given the world economic turmoil that
German firms have become increasingly pessimistic regarding their
economic outlook. The IFO Business climate indicator fell 2.9% to 90.2
(2000=100) in October from 92.9 in September. The indicator is now
approaching the lows last reached in 2001 and 2002.The Business Climate
Indicator is based on the responses of some 7000 firms in the
manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade industries to
questions regarding current conditions and expected conditions over the
next six months. In the current survey, the index for current
conditions increased minimally by 0.1%,while the index for expectations
declined 5.9%. The indexes for the business climate, current conditions
and expectations for the next six months are shown in the first chart.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081027c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
In addition to the indexes, the data are also shown as
percentage balances of good versus poor for current conditions and more
favorable versus less favorable for expectations. The percentage
balances for the business climate in the manufacturing, construction,
wholesale and retail trade industries are shown in the second chart.
All the indicators have been declining since the sub prime problem
arose in the United States in the Fall of 2007, but the declines in
manufacturing and retail trade appear to have accelerated in the past
few months.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">GERMANY
IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 08</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Oct&nbsp; 07&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">M/M %chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y&nbsp; chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">INDEXES&nbsp;
(2000=100)</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Climate</td>
<td>90.2</td>
<td>92.9</td>
<td>104.1</td>
<td>-2.91</td>
<td>-13.35</td>
<td>106.2</td>
<td>105.4</td>
<td>95.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Current
Conditions</td>
<td>99.9</td>
<td>99.8</td>
<td>109.7</td>
<td>0.10</td>
<td>-8.93</td>
<td>111.2</td>
<td>108.4</td>
<td>94.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;
Expectations for Next Six Months</td>
<td>81.4</td>
<td>86.5</td>
<td>98.8</td>
<td>-5.90</td>
<td>-17.61</td>
<td>101.4</td>
<td>102.7</td>
<td>96.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">PERCENT BALANCES (%)</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>&nbsp;Pt chg</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Industry</td>
<td>-20.2</td>
<td>-14.9</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>-5.3</td>
<td>-27.7</td>
<td>11.6</td>
<td>10.2</td>
<td>-9.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;
Manufacturing</td>
<td>-18.9</td>
<td>-11.9</td>
<td>18.4</td>
<td>-7.2</td>
<td>-37.3</td>
<td>22.4</td>
<td>19.8</td>
<td>1.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;
Construction&nbsp;</td>
<td>-27.6</td>
<td>-25.2</td>
<td>-20.3</td>
<td>-2.4</td>
<td>-7.3</td>
<td>-16.1</td>
<td>-15.8</td>
<td>-37.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale
Trade</td>
<td>-15.1</td>
<td>-10.3</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>-4.8</td>
<td>-17.7</td>
<td>11.1</td>
<td>11.7</td>
<td>-9.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail
Trade</td>
<td>-25.0</td>
<td>-24.1</td>
<td>-6.4</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>-18.6</td>
<td>-6.5</td>
<td>-6.0</td>
<td>-28.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

It is no surprise, given the world economic turmoil that German firms have become increasingly pessimistic regarding their economic outlook. The IFO Business climate indicator fell 2.9% to 90.2 (2000=100) in October from 92.9 in [...]

No Surprise: German Ifo's Business Climate Indicator Continues To Decline

Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081027a.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. Census Department reported that September sales of new single-family homes ticked up 2.7% m/m to 464,000. The rise followed a 12.6% m/m decline during August that was little revised. The level of sales in September was down 66.6% from the July 2005 peak but it was slightly better than Consensus expectations for 450,000 sales.
By region sales in the West accounted for most of last month&#39;s increase in the total with a 22.7% gain. However, the rise did not wholly make up a 30.2% slide during August. In the South sales ticked up 0.7% but that hardly dented a 5.7% August drop. Reflecting the weakness in the auto industry, new home sales in the Midwest sales reversed all of their August rise with a 5.6% slide. Suffering greatly from weakness in the financial industry, new home sales in the Northeast dropped 21.4% m/m after an August slide of 34.9%. September sales in the Northeast were roughly 80% below the peaks in 2004-05.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081027b.jpg" width="353">
The median price for a new single-family home declined a slight 0.9% to $218,400. However, that slip followed a sharp 7.1% m/m drop in August and prices were off 9.1% y/y. New home prices in September were back to where they were late in 2004. The decline in home prices roughly matched the drop reported last week by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (FHFA). The FHFA figures, (formerly the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), as well as the Census Dept. figures, are available in Haver&#39;s USECON database. 
The number of new homes for purchase again fell sharply, by 7.3% (-25.4% y/y). That reduced the inventory of unsold homes to the lowest level since late-2004. In each of the country&#39;s regions the inventory is down roughly one-quarter during the last year.
The month&#39;s supply of new homes for sale ticked lower m/m to 10.4, not far from the peak of 11.4 months during August.
Foreclosure prevention efforts and market stability is last week&#39;s Senate testimony given by Fed Governor Elizabeth A. Duke and it can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/duke20081023a.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">US New Homes</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y (%)</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Sales (SAAR, 000s)</td>
<td>464</td>
<td>452</td>
<td>-33.1</td>
<td>768</td>
<td>1,049</td>
<td>1,279</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>&nbsp;-65.1</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>81</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>69</td>
<td>-37.5</td>
<td>118</td>
<td>161</td>
<td>203</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>269</td>
<td>267</td>
<td>-23.8</td>
<td>408</td>
<td>559</td>
<td>638</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>108</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>-37.9</td>
<td>178</td>
<td>266</td>
<td>356</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Median Price (NSA, $)</td>
<td>218,400</td>
<td>220,400</td>
<td>-9.1</td>
<td>243,742</td>
<td>243,067</td>
<td>234,208</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The U.S. Census Department reported that September sales of new single-family homes ticked up 2.7% m/m to 464,000. The rise followed a 12.6% m/m decline during August that was little revised. The level of sales in September was down [...]

September U.S. New-Home Sales Ticked Up but Still Near the Cycle's Low

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081027a.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. Census Department reported that September sales of new single-family homes ticked up 2.7% m/m to 464,000. The rise followed a 12.6% m/m decline during August that was little revised. The level of sales in September was down 66.6% from the July 2005 peak but it was slightly better than Consensus expectations for 450,000 sales.
By region sales in the West accounted for most of last month&#39;s increase in the total with a 22.7% gain. However, the rise did not wholly make up a 30.2% slide during August. In the South sales ticked up 0.7% but that hardly dented a 5.7% August drop. Reflecting the weakness in the auto industry, new home sales in the Midwest sales reversed all of their August rise with a 5.6% slide. Suffering greatly from weakness in the financial industry, new home sales in the Northeast dropped 21.4% m/m after an August slide of 34.9%. September sales in the Northeast were roughly 80% below the peaks in 2004-05.
The median price for a new single-family home declined a slight 0.9% to $218,400. However, that slip followed a sharp 7.1% m/m drop in August and prices were off 9.1% y/y. New home prices in September were back to where they were late in 2004. The decline in home prices roughly matched the drop reported last week by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (FHFA). The FHFA figures, (formerly the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), as well as the Census Dept. figures, are available in Haver&#39;s USECON database. 
The number of new homes for purchase again fell sharply, by 7.3% (-25.4% y/y). That reduced the inventory of unsold homes to the lowest level since late-2004. In each of the country&#39;s regions the inventory is down roughly one-quarter during the last year.
The month&#39;s supply of new homes for sale ticked lower m/m to 10.4, not far from the peak of 11.4 months during August.
Foreclosure prevention efforts and market stability is last week&#39;s Senate testimony given by Fed Governor Elizabeth A. Duke and it can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/duke20081023a.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">US New Homes</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y (%)</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Sales (SAAR, 000s)</td>
<td>464</td>
<td>452</td>
<td>-33.1</td>
<td>768</td>
<td>1,049</td>
<td>1,279</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>&nbsp;-65.1</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>81</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>69</td>
<td>-37.5</td>
<td>118</td>
<td>161</td>
<td>203</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>269</td>
<td>267</td>
<td>-23.8</td>
<td>408</td>
<td>559</td>
<td>638</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>108</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>-37.9</td>
<td>178</td>
<td>266</td>
<td>356</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Median Price (NSA, $)</td>
<td>218,400</td>
<td>220,400</td>
<td>-9.1</td>
<td>243,742</td>
<td>243,067</td>
<td>234,208</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Money Supply Growth Stabilizes 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert Brusca</a> October 27, 2008


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081027e.jpg" width="353">
Europe&#146;s money supply growth and credit growth do not show signs of further slowing in September. Growth is slower that it has been over the past 12months but 3-month growth rates are about the same or a bit higher than 6-month rates of growth. In the US and the UK rates of growth in three months have picked up beyond those for their respective 12-month paces. In Japan money growth rates are very low and continue to ease. The grow rates for real money balances actually look a bit stronger all around except in Japan. 
As the financial problems have gotten worse one thing we have seen is that money supply numbers have bulged. Money demand has three components: precautionary, speculative and transactions demand. We tend to look at increases in money supply as being for transactions demand but in times such as these the precautionary element could be spiking as investors ditch riskier investments and flock to bank deposits. I would not look at the pick up in money growth or in the growth in real money balances as something that is inflationary for that reason. 


<colgroup></colgroup>


<tr><th colspan="8" scope="col">Look at Global and Euro Liquidity Trends </th>
</tr>

<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Saar-all</td>
<td colspan="3">Euro Measures (E13): Money &amp; Credit</td>
<td colspan="3">G-10 Major Markets: Money</td>
<td>Memo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&#128;&#128;-Supply M2</td>
<td>Credit:Resid</td>
<td>Loans</td>
<td>$US M2</td>
<td>&pound;&pound;UK M4</td>
<td>&yen;&yen;Jpn M2+Cds</td>
<td>OIL:WTI</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">3-MO</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>-63.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">6-MO</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>14.3%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">12-MO</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>10.5%</td>
<td>8.7%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>30.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2Yr</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>12.3%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>27.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">3Yr</td>
<td>9.6%</td>
<td>11.2%</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>13.0%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>16.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Real Balances: deflated by Own CPI. Oil deflated by US CPI</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">3-MO</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-64.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">6-MO</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-8.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">12-MO</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>24.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2Yr</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>22.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">3Yr</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>9.6%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>12.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>

No Surprise: German Ifo's Business
Climate Indicator
Continues To Decline
 
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise
Curley</a> October 27, 2008



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081027d.jpg" width="353">
It is no surprise, given the world economic turmoil that German firms have become increasingly pessimistic regarding their economic outlook. The IFO Business climate indicator fell 2.9% to 90.2 (2000=100) in October from 92.9 in September. The indicator is now approaching the lows last reached in 2001 and 2002.The Business Climate Indicator is based on the responses of some 7000 firms in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade industries to questions regarding current conditions and expected conditions over the next six months. In the current survey, the index for current conditions increased minimally by 0.1%,while the index for expectations declined 5.9%. The indexes for the business climate, current conditions and expectations for the next six months are shown in the first chart.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081027c.jpg" width="353">
In addition to the indexes, the data are also shown as percentage balances of good versus poor for current conditions and more favorable versus less favorable for expectations. The percentage balances for the business climate in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade industries are shown in the second chart. All the indicators have been declining since the sub prime problem arose in the United States in the Fall of 2007, but the declines in manufacturing and retail trade appear to have accelerated in the past few months.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">GERMANY IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 08</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Oct&nbsp; 07&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">M/M %chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y&nbsp; chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">INDEXES&nbsp; (2000=100)</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Climate</td>
<td>90.2</td>
<td>92.9</td>
<td>104.1</td>
<td>-2.91</td>
<td>-13.35</td>
<td>106.2</td>
<td>105.4</td>
<td>95.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Current Conditions</td>
<td>99.9</td>
<td>99.8</td>
<td>109.7</td>
<td>0.10</td>
<td>-8.93</td>
<td>111.2</td>
<td>108.4</td>
<td>94.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Expectations for Next Six Months</td>
<td>81.4</td>
<td>86.5</td>
<td>98.8</td>
<td>-5.90</td>
<td>-17.61</td>
<td>101.4</td>
<td>102.7</td>
<td>96.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">PERCENT BALANCES (%)</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>&nbsp;Pt chg</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Industry</td>
<td>-20.2</td>
<td>-14.9</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>-5.3</td>
<td>-27.7</td>
<td>11.6</td>
<td>10.2</td>
<td>-9.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>-18.9</td>
<td>-11.9</td>
<td>18.4</td>
<td>-7.2</td>
<td>-37.3</td>
<td>22.4</td>
<td>19.8</td>
<td>1.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Construction&nbsp;</td>
<td>-27.6</td>
<td>-25.2</td>
<td>-20.3</td>
<td>-2.4</td>
<td>-7.3</td>
<td>-16.1</td>
<td>-15.8</td>
<td>-37.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale Trade</td>
<td>-15.1</td>
<td>-10.3</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>-4.8</td>
<td>-17.7</td>
<td>11.1</td>
<td>11.7</td>
<td>-9.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail Trade</td>
<td>-25.0</td>
<td>-24.1</td>
<td>-6.4</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>-18.6</td>
<td>-6.5</td>
<td>-6.0</td>
<td>-28.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081024c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Europe&#8217;s PMIs are now weak. They are at or near the lows we
have seen since the services PMI was issued in July of 1998. Both
service sand MFG PMIs are below their respective neutral readings of 50
and are thus indicating CONTRACTION.

The MFG PMI is even at its lowest level since June of 1997
when its survey began. 
 

The month to month drop in the MFG index is the largest over
this period while the services drop ranks as about the 18th smallest
&#8216;gain&#8217; in its history of the 63 drops in the 123 observation of the
series. This months&#8217; drop also ranks 45 in size among all drops or as
the eighteenth largest drop when ranked among drops (or the bottom 28
percentile). In relative magnitude this month&#8217;s service sector drop is
a bottom third affair. The MFG sector is taking the relatively larger
hit for this month. It is taking its largest drop on record and falling
to its lowest position in its history.

Europe has been a late comer to weakness but is catching up
with the US. In September the US MFG PMI stood at a level 43.5, below
where Europe was then but above where Europe is now. The US ISM may yet
fall to a lower level in October and be weaker than Europe. But the two
indices are clearly now sharing the same dimension of weakness
regardless of which is the weaker. Last month the US non-MFG PMI stood
at a level of 50 above the service sector reading for EMU. EMU&#8217;s drop
to 46.91 seems clearly a weaker reading than what we get out of the US
Non-MFG PMI (where 44.6 is the weakest reading ever) since sharp
declines have not marked its recent trend. But things are changing fast
and maybe the US non-MFG sector will weaken beyond Europe&#8217;s reading. We
do not yet know how rapidly the economy descended in October. But this
is not a time that has rewarded optimistic projecting. Maybe the
message from Europe is that we should brace ourselves for even worse
news from the US.

One message from Europe is nonetheless clear. Both MFG and
Services indices are quite weak and the MFG sector is falling very hard
right now. Expect the more conventional readings for Europe to start to
look a lot weaker. Since this report is topical and up-to-date as of
October it is a month or two ahead of the release of more conventional
economic reports form Europe. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="3" scope="col"> FLASH
Readings</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="3" class="firstcol">Market PMIs for the
E-Zone-13</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>MFG</td>
<td>Services</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Oct-08</td>
<td>41.33</td>
<td>46.91</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Sep-08</td>
<td>44.97</td>
<td>48.44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Aug-08</td>
<td>47.55</td>
<td>48.46</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Jul-08</td>
<td>47.38</td>
<td>48.32</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="3" class="firstcol">Averages</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">3-Mo</td>
<td>46.63</td>
<td>47.76</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">6-Mo</td>
<td>48.40</td>
<td>48.60</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">12-Mo</td>
<td>50.37</td>
<td>50.52</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="3" class="firstcol">33-Mo
Range</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">High</td>
<td>57.61</td>
<td>60.65</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Low</td>
<td>41.33</td>
<td>46.68</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">% Range</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Europe’s PMIs are now weak. They are at or near the lows we have seen since the services PMI was issued in July of 1998. Both service sand MFG PMIs are below their respective neutral readings of 50 and are thus indicating CONTRACTION. [...]

Europe's PMIs Are Weak- Showing Contraction!

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081024a.jpg" width="353">
The level of September existing homes jumped 5.5% from August to 5.180 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. The rise followed an unrevised 2.2% August decline and beat Consensus expectations for a selling rate of 4.95M homes. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
Median home prices fell 5.7% (NSA) last month for the third consecutive monthly drop. That pulled the y/y comparison to -9.0%. Prices have fallen 16.7% since their peak in April 2007.
Sales of existing single-family homes rose 6.2% after an unrevised 1.4% August decline. The y/y gains in both total sales and sales of single family homes turned positive for the first time since November 2005. Sales of existing homes, nonetheless, are down by one-third from their peak in mid-2005.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081024b.jpg" width="353">
By region, home sales in the West led last month&#39;s increase with a 16.8% m/m gain. That lifted sales by more than one third versus the year ago level. Sales in the Midwest also rose but by a lesser 4.4%; the y/y change is still a negative 2.5%. In the South rose 2.2% (-7.8% y/y) but sales in the Northeast were off 1.2% (-7.7% y/y).
The number of unsold homes (condos &amp; single-family) on the market fell 1.6% during September (-2.4% y/y) after a 5.2% August drop. At the current sales rate, the inventory fell to a 9.9 months supply versus the April peak of 11.2 months. For single-family homes, however, the inventory fell a bit more to a 9.4 months supply at the current sales rate, down from an 11.0 months supply in June.
Subprime Facts: What (We Think) We Know about the Subprime Crisis and What We Don&#146;t from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston is available <a href="http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/ppdp/2008/ppdp0802.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Existing Home Sales (Thous)</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">y/y %</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">September &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>5,180</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>4,910</td>
<td>5,020</td>
<td>5,672</td>
<td>6,508</td>
<td>7,076</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>840</td>
<td>-7.7</td>
<td>850</td>
<td>910</td>
<td>1,008</td>
<td>1,090</td>
<td>1,168</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>1,190</td>
<td>-2.5</td>
<td>1,140</td>
<td>1,220</td>
<td>1,331</td>
<td>1,491</td>
<td>1,589</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>1,900</td>
<td>-7.8</td>
<td>1,860</td>
<td>2,060</td>
<td>2,240</td>
<td>2,576</td>
<td>2,704</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>1,250</td>
<td>34.4</td>
<td>1,070</td>
<td>930</td>
<td>1,093</td>
<td>1,353</td>
<td>1,617</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Single-Family</td>
<td>4,620</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>4,350</td>
<td>4,450</td>
<td>4,958</td>
<td>5,703</td>
<td>6,181</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Median Price, Total, $</td>
<td>191,600</td>
<td>-9.0</td>
<td>203,100</td>
<td>210,500</td>
<td>216,617</td>
<td>222,000</td>
<td>218,217</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The level of September existing homes jumped 5.5% from August to 5.180 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. The rise followed an unrevised 2.2% August decline and beat Consensus expectations for a selling rate [...]

Lower Prices Spurred U.S. Existing Home Sales

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081024a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The level of September existing homes jumped
5.5% from August to 5.180 million, according to the National
Association of Realtors. The rise followed an unrevised 2.2% August
decline and beat Consensus expectations for a selling rate of 4.95M
homes. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
Median home prices fell 5.7% (NSA) last
month for the third consecutive monthly drop. That pulled the y/y
comparison to -9.0%. Prices have fallen 16.7% since their peak in April
2007.
Sales of existing single-family homes rose 6.2% after an
unrevised 1.4% August decline. The y/y gains in both total sales and
sales of single family homes turned positive for the first time since
November 2005. Sales of existing homes, nonetheless, are down by
one-third from their peak in mid-2005.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081024b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
By region, home sales in the West led last month's increase
with a 16.8% m/m gain. That lifted sales by more than one third versus
the year ago level. Sales in the Midwest also rose but by a lesser
4.4%; the y/y change is still a negative 2.5%. In the South rose 2.2%
(-7.8% y/y) but sales in the Northeast were off 1.2% (-7.7% y/y).
The number of unsold homes (condos &amp; single-family) on
the market fell 1.6% during September (-2.4% y/y) after a 5.2% August
drop. At the current sales rate, the inventory fell to a 9.9 months
supply versus the April peak of 11.2 months. For single-family homes,
however, the inventory fell a bit more to a 9.4 months supply at the
current sales rate, down from an 11.0 months supply in June.
Subprime Facts: What (We Think) We Know about the
Subprime Crisis and What We Don&#8217;t from the Federal Reserve
Bank of Boston is available <a href="http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/ppdp/2008/ppdp0802.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Existing
Home Sales (Thous)</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">y/y %</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">September '07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>5,180</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>4,910</td>
<td>5,020</td>
<td>5,672</td>
<td>6,508</td>
<td>7,076</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>840</td>
<td>-7.7</td>
<td>850</td>
<td>910</td>
<td>1,008</td>
<td>1,090</td>
<td>1,168</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>1,190</td>
<td>-2.5</td>
<td>1,140</td>
<td>1,220</td>
<td>1,331</td>
<td>1,491</td>
<td>1,589</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>1,900</td>
<td>-7.8</td>
<td>1,860</td>
<td>2,060</td>
<td>2,240</td>
<td>2,576</td>
<td>2,704</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>1,250</td>
<td>34.4</td>
<td>1,070</td>
<td>930</td>
<td>1,093</td>
<td>1,353</td>
<td>1,617</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Single-Family</td>
<td>4,620</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>4,350</td>
<td>4,450</td>
<td>4,958</td>
<td>5,703</td>
<td>6,181</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Median Price, Total, $</td>
<td>191,600</td>
<td>-9.0</td>
<td>203,100</td>
<td>210,500</td>
<td>216,617</td>
<td>222,000</td>
<td>218,217</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Europe's PMIs Are Weak- Showing
Contraction! 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> October 24, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081024c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Europe&#8217;s PMIs are now weak. They are at or near the lows we
have seen since the services PMI was issued in July of 1998. Both
service sand MFG PMIs are below their respective neutral readings of 50
and are thus indicating CONTRACTION. 
 

The MFG PMI is even at its lowest level since June of 1997
when its survey began. 
 

The month to month drop in the MFG index is the largest over
this period while the services drop ranks as about the 18th smallest
&#8216;gain&#8217; in its history of the 63 drops in the 123 observation of the
series. This months&#8217; drop also ranks 45 in size among all drops or as
the eighteenth largest drop when ranked among drops (or the bottom 28
percentile). In relative magnitude this month&#8217;s service sector drop is
a bottom third affair. The MFG sector is taking the relatively larger
hit for this month. It is taking its largest drop on record and falling
to its lowest position in its history. 
 

Europe has been a late comer to weakness but is catching up
with the US. In September the US MFG PMI stood at a level 43.5, below
where Europe was then but above where Europe is now. The US ISM may yet
fall to a lower level in October and be weaker than Europe. But the two
indices are clearly now sharing the same dimension of weakness
regardless of which is the weaker. Last month the US non-MFG PMI stood
at a level of 50 above the service sector reading for EMU. EMU&#8217;s drop
to 46.91 seems clearly a weaker reading than what we get out of the US
Non-MFG PMI (where 44.6 is the weakest reading ever) since sharp
declines have not marked its recent trend. But things are changing fast
and maybe the US non-MFG sector will weaken beyond Europe&#8217;s reading. We
do not yet know how rapidly the economy descended in October. But this
is not a time that has rewarded optimistic projecting. Maybe the
message from Europe is that we should brace ourselves for even worse
news from the US. 
 

One message from Europe is nonetheless clear. Both MFG and
Services indices are quite weak and the MFG sector is falling very hard
right now. Expect the more conventional readings for Europe to start to
look a lot weaker. Since this report is topical and up-to-date as of
October it is a month or two ahead of the release of more conventional
economic reports form Europe. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="3" scope="col"> FLASH
Readings</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="3" class="firstcol">Market
PMIs for the
E-Zone-13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>MFG</td>
<td>Services</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Oct-08</td>
<td>41.33</td>
<td>46.91</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Sep-08</td>
<td>44.97</td>
<td>48.44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Aug-08</td>
<td>47.55</td>
<td>48.46</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Jul-08</td>
<td>47.38</td>
<td>48.32</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd&quot;">
<td colspan="3" class="firstcol">Averages</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">3-Mo</td>
<td>46.63</td>
<td>47.76</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">6-Mo</td>
<td>48.40</td>
<td>48.60</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">12-Mo</td>
<td>50.37</td>
<td>50.52</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd&quot;">
<td colspan="3" class="firstcol">33-Mo
Range</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">High</td>
<td>57.61</td>
<td>60.65</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Low</td>
<td>41.33</td>
<td>46.68</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">% Range</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

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<html><head>
<style>
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}
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<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081023c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Industrial orders in the e-zone fell by a relatively sharp
1.2% in August. Still there has been enough strength recently for the
3-mo growth rate of e-Zone orders to stand at a positive 5.3%. Over six
months and 12-months orders are still declining. And in the quarter-to
date orders are falling as well at a sharp -6% pace. Order weakness
continues to be led by orders from abroad (see table). Domestic orders
are not so much stronger (see chart) as they are more volatile. 

The selected country level reports in the table shows weakness
of a significant magnitude across the group albeit there are timing
differences and volatility in orders within this group. But in
Q3-to-date only Italy shows an order rise. The UK shows an annual rate
of decline at a -40% rate. Italy is posting a gain in the quarter at
nearly a 10% pace. Germany and France are showing quarter-to-date order
drops on the order of 6% to 7%. 
 
 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="10" scope="col">E-zone
and UK Industrial Orders &amp; Sales Trends </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Saar except m/m</td>
<td colspan="3">% m/m</td>
<td>Aug 
08</td>
<td>Aug 
08</td>
<td>Aug 
08</td>
<td>Aug 
07</td>
<td>Aug 
06</td>
<td>Qtr-2 
Date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Ezone Detail</td>
<td>Aug 
08</td>
<td>Jul 
08</td>
<td>Jun 
08</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">MFG Sales</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capital</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">MFG Orders</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Orders</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>-5.1%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">E-13 Domestic MFG orders</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">E-13 Foreign MFG orders</td>
<td>-2.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>16.4%</td>
<td>-5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Countries:</td>
<td>Aug 
08</td>
<td>Jul 
08</td>
<td>Jun 
08</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Qtr-2 
Date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany:</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-6.4%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>17.0%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France:</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>-6.9%</td>
<td>-18.5%</td>
<td>-7.8%</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>-5.3%</td>
<td>-7.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>13.2%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>18.2%</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK(EU)</td>
<td>-15.2%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>-53.6%</td>
<td>-37.2%</td>
<td>-16.4%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>-40.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Industrial orders in the e-zone fell by a relatively sharp 1.2% in August. Still there has been enough strength recently for the 3-mo growth rate of e-Zone orders to stand at a positive 5.3%. Over six months and 12-months orders are [...]

European Orders Head Sharply Lower In August

Next year's inflation forecasts are on the rise and above target

Disrupted global supply chains placing upward pressure on US goods prices

Construction of data centers has overtaken transportation construction in US

Elevated energy prices putting intense upward pressure on input prices around the globe

US is big leader in global surge in private AI investment

Larger-than-usual income tax refunds this year are supporting consumer spending

Sharply rising share of AI-related jobs

Inflationary impact of surge in oil prices larger in Europe than in the US

Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

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260623E.jpg

**PMIs in June mark some progress**
The PMI report from S&P shows modest firming in conditions in June, even with the Middle East situation unresolved.

**Monthly:** The median reading for the 8 reporting countries or regions rose to 50.8 in June from 50.1 in May. Manufacturing improved to 52.7 from 52.4, while the services reading rose to 50.3 from 49.6, leaving a month of mild contraction behind.

**Most show June improvement:** Most countries or regions improved in June; the exceptions were Germany, the United Kingdom, and India, which were weaker. India was dragged down by a weaker service sector reading in June; the U.K. and Germany showed weakening conditions across the board for the composite index, the manufacturing sector, and services. On the other side of the coin, France, Japan, Australia, and the U.S. all showed improvement in each of three sectors: the composite, manufacturing, and services, in June compared to May.

**Sequentially still mixed:** The broader sequential readings show ongoing weakness, but these are derived from hard data and lag the monthly observations in the table that include preliminary flash estimates. All the composite readings weakened based on three-month averages except for India. However, seven of eight reporting areas showed improvement in manufacturing over three months compared to six months; the exception was Australia. Over six months, conditions are mixed, with four composite readings weaker compared to 12 months and with four stronger. However, over six months, all eight manufacturing sectors improved compared to 12 months. The 12-month readings are consistently stronger than their readings of 12 months ago. The only composite that's weaker is the U.S., while the services sectors in the monetary union, Germany, France, and the U.S. are weaker than they were 12 months ago.

**Standings are weak:** The queue percentile standings evaluate the current diffusion index in June compared to where it has been since January 2022, a period of about 4½ years. The queue standings show weakness up and down the line, with the exception of the manufacturing sector; that has the standing above its historic median in the monetary union, Germany, France, the U.K., the U.S., and Japan. Only Australia and India show manufacturing sectors whose current monthly standings are below their medians of the last 4½ years. In addition, Japan has a strong composite reading at its 81st percentile. Overall, the services sectors are weak and below their 50% standing every place, and below that mark by a large margin, except for Japan, where the services sector has a 47th percentile standing, only a few ticks below its median.

260623.jpg

**Summing up: A glimmer of hope but still a lot of weakness**
Manufacturing is stronger sequentially over three months, six months, and 12 months for every reporter except for Australia over three months. The rest of the report is not very impressive. There is some rebound in June, but here we're talking about volatile monthly data. The services sectors still show sequential weakness over 12 months, six months, and three months in the European Monetary Union, Germany, France, and the U.S. The U.K. and Japan showed three-month and six-month weakness as well. That’s too much weakness in the key job creation sector to think that this report is a positive signal.

S&P PMIs in June Firm

260622E.jpg

Danish consumer confidence rose to -14 in June from -19.8 in May, a small pickup for a still-negative net reading. In June, the reading has a standing at its 7.9 percentile on data back to 1995. So, this confidence headline still has a lower 8% reading overall.

On the month, all seven component readings improved compared to May, although the environmental assessments were little changed across four components. As for the environment, the most changed reading is the improved favorability of the time to save, a metric that is not always a positive category.

As for the seven categories, the readings on the financial situation, general economy and the unemployment rate all improved month-to-month, while the inflation metrics both backed down sharply.

These changes show the financial situation and general economy gauges all at rankings in the lower 20th percentiles, with the outlook for the next 12 months having a standing in their lower 10th percentiles and lower for both the financial situation and the general economy.

Consumer prices, despite a strong monthly step-back, have a 90.2 percentile standing for prices over the past 12 months and a 94.3 percentile standing for the CPI over the next 12 months. Despite some let-up in concerns about unemployment, the unemployment gauge has an 85.1 percentile standing, still substantially elevated.

The environmental readings are less negative, starting with the ‘favorability of the time to purchase,’ a bit weaker month-to-month but improved on balance over two months. The June reading is slightly better than its 12-month average but still has a ranking only in its 21st percentile. The favorability of the time to purchase over the next 12 months is a tick weaker month-to-month and about a point worse than its 12-month average. Its June ranking is in its lower 10th percentile of its historic queue. The favorability of the time to save has a stronger ranking, but this is a more equivocal category. It is improved month-to-month and only slightly stronger over two months The June reading is stronger than its 12-month average, with a ranking in its 47.6 percentile—improved compared to previous categories but still worse than its historic median since 1995 (the median occurs at a ranking of 50%). The ‘general financial situation of households now’ ticked lower in June from May but is stronger on balance over two months. The June reading is above its 12-month average and has a 59.2 percentile standing—above its median.

On balance, Denmark shows improving confidence, progressing slowly but on the right path. There is a sharp downward adjustment in inflation, especially over the next 12 months, despite global conditions. Still, the ranking of the confidence metrics are uniformly weak.

260622.jpg

Denmark

Danish Confidence Improves As Inflation Expectations Pull Back Sharply

Andrew Cates

**US Outperformance Holds; Europe and China Continue to Disappoint**
One of the most persistent features of the global macro landscape in 2026 has been the widening divergence between growth outcomes in the United States and those in Europe and China. Citigroup’s global growth surprise indices—which measure the gap between actual economic releases and consensus expectations—capture this divergence with unusual clarity. US data have continued to surprise on the upside, supported by resilient consumer spending, a stronger-than-expected labour market and the ongoing AI-driven capital spending boom. The picture elsewhere is less encouraging. Growth surprises have turned negative across the euro area, reflecting the cumulative toll of elevated energy costs, weak industrial activity and subdued business confidence. And China's growth surprise index has also fallen sharply in recent weeks, with weaker-than-expected retail sales and fixed asset investment data for May this week reinforcing concerns that domestic demand remains fragile and that policy support is yet to gain meaningful traction.

260618Z1.jpg

**The Oil Risk Premium in the UK Has Been Fading**
One of the more notable features of UK markets this year has been the close relationship between oil prices and two-year gilt yields. The link is not mechanical, but in an economy heavily exposed to imported energy, swings in oil prices can materially alter the inflation outlook and, by extension, expectations for Bank of England policy. That relationship was on display again this week. A softer-than-expected UK CPI reading for May—helped in part by easing energy price pressures—led investors to scale back expectations that inflation would remain persistently above target, pushing two-year gilt yields to their lowest level in six weeks. The question now is whether this marks the start of a more sustained easing in inflation pressures or merely a temporary reprieve. Much will depend on whether the recent decline in oil prices following the US-Iran ceasefire agreement proves durable.

260618Z2.jpg

**The AI Investment Boom Is Rewriting the Rule Book for the Chip Industry**
If the divergence in global growth surprises noted above tells a story of a world economy under strain, the semiconductor sales data tell a very different one — of a technology-driven investment cycle that is accelerating almost regardless of the broader macro environment. Global semiconductor sales have surged to record levels over the past twelve months, driven primarily by insatiable demand for the chips that underpin AI infrastructure: graphics processing units, high-bandwidth memory, and advanced logic chips. Data centre capital expenditure from the hyperscalers continues to exceed even the most optimistic forecasts from a year ago, and the investment pipeline shows no sign of moderating. The gains are concentrated in AI-adjacent products; legacy chips for consumer electronics and industrial applications remain relatively soft.

260618Z3.jpg

**Copper Holds Firm As Oil Retreats**
The commodity markets are telling two quite different stories this week, and the contrast is instructive. Oil has moved sharply lower on the US-Iran MoU news as investors trim the conflict risk premium that has been embedded in energy markets since March — a welcome development for inflation and central bank optionality alike. But the three commodities shown in this chart tell a different story. Copper, one of the most reliable proxies for global electricity infrastructure investment, remains near multi-year highs, reflecting the extraordinary volume of data centre construction, grid expansion and electrification spending flowing through the global economy. Aluminium — energy-intensive to produce and increasingly in demand for the structural components of both data centres and electric vehicles — has, until quite recently, held its ground. Lithium hydroxide, the battery-grade refining product that sits at the heart of the energy storage supply chain, has seen some cyclical softness but remains structurally underpinned by the scale of demand being projected for grid-scale storage and electric mobility over the next decade.

260618Z4.jpg

**Is Energy Availability a Binding Constraint on Growth?**
This next chart is a scatter plot that maps electricity generation per capita against GDP growth per capita across a broad sample of countries over the past five years. The positive relationship is striking. Economies with higher electricity generation per capita, including the United States, have generally delivered stronger GDP growth, while those with more constrained electricity systems have tended to lag. The obvious objection is reverse causality: richer economies generate more electricity because they have more to power. That is partly true. But the broader evidence is difficult to dismiss. The US shale revolution delivered an abundance of cheap energy that supported a sustained period of industrial outperformance relative to many advanced economies. Mainstream commentary often attributed this advantage to factors such as labour market flexibility or technological innovation, but energy costs were arguably at least as important.

260618Z5.jpg

**Corporate America Is Investing from a Position of Unusual Financial Strength**
The surge in US corporate investment—particularly in AI infrastructure, data centres and semiconductors—has inevitably drawn comparisons with the late-1990s dot-com boom. Yet the financial balance data suggest an important difference. During the dot-com era, US non-financial corporates moved into a financial deficit approaching 4% of GDP, relying heavily on external financing to fund investment. Today, despite another ambitious investment cycle, the sector remains in surplus, currently around 1.8% of GDP. Corporate America is investing aggressively, but it is still generating more cash than it is spending. The boom is being financed largely through profits rather than debt. Risks remain—not least the growing fiscal burden on the federal government—but the balance-sheet fragilities that turned previous investment booms into systemic crises appear far less pronounced. If a major constraint emerges in the years ahead, it may be energy and resources rather than leverage.

260618Z6.jpg

The signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran earlier this week has offered financial markets their most significant moment of geopolitical relief since the Middle East conflict escalated in early March. Oil prices fell sharply on the news, short-dated bond yields moved lower across several major economies, and risk assets recovered ground. But relief, as investors have learnt repeatedly over the past three months, is arguably not the same as resolution. The MoU sets a framework for negotiations rather than a final settlement, and the history of US-Iran diplomacy is not one that encourages complacency. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve — concluding its June meeting yesterday under new chair Kevin Warsh — held rates steady but delivered a distinctly hawkish dot plot that shifted the median year-end projection from a cut to a hike, a reminder that the easing cycle the market had been pricing is no longer the base case. Against this backdrop, this week's charts take stock of where the global economy presently stands — and what the underlying data, beneath the geopolitical noise, are telling us. The picture that emerges is one of divergence. The United States continues to outperform consensus growth expectations while Europe and China disappoint (chart 1). UK short-dated yields have tracked oil prices with unusual consistency this year, and today's softer-than-expected CPI print for May — arriving just as the MoU has knocked crude lower — potentially changes the policy calculus for the Bank of England (chart 2). Global semiconductor sales, meanwhile, are storming ahead regardless of the geopolitical noise, powered by AI infrastructure spending that shows no sign of fatigue (chart 3). A cross-section of commodity prices tells two stories simultaneously: the geopolitical risk premium is draining out of oil, but the metals and materials the AI economy actually needs — copper, uranium, critical minerals — are holding firm (chart 4). Meanwhile a cross-country scatter of electricity generation and GDP growth over the past five years raises a question that deserves more attention than it typically gets: is energy availability a constraint on growth, or merely a consequence of it? The evidence, we would argue, points firmly in one direction (chart 5). And finally, for all the comparisons being drawn between the current investment boom and the late 1990s, the financial balance of the US corporate sector tells a rather different story — one that matters for how any correction might unfold (chart 6).

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/7rw2v1Ri8gUVHbFrZfgANL?utm_source=generator&si=75d98727e9524d75" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Between Relief and Reality

Winnie Tapasanun

260618N12.jpg

260618O12.jpg

The current general activity diffusion index rebounded to a slightly stronger-than-expected 10.3 in June following a 27.1-point drop to -0.4 in May, the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed, indicating a return to expansion in manufacturing activity in the Third Federal Reserve District this month. A reading of 10.0 for June had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. June marked the fifth m/m increase in six months, showing a sharp improvement from -1.4 in June 2025. In June, 32.1% of firms reported increases in current general activity (up from 22.5% in May), while 21.9% reported decreases (down from 22.9%); 45.4% reported no change (down from 54.6%). Survey responses were collected from June 8 to June 15.

Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from five key components using the methodology along the lines of the national ISM index. The index rose to 53.1 in June after a 4.8-point decline to a contraction-level 49.7 in May, indicating manufacturing activity expanded for the third time in four months; it was slightly above 51.0 in June 2025.

In the latest survey, the new orders index surged to 27.3 in June following a 34.7-point plunge to -1.7 in May, signaling new orders expanded for the sixth time in seven months. The shipments index rebounded to 14.9 this month from 4.9 in May, registering the seventh consecutive expansion. The unfilled orders index advanced to 10.5 from -2.5, indicating expansion for the first time since July 2025 and the highest level since January 2025. In contrast, the inventories index dropped to -8.5 in June from 6.6 in May, showing inventories contracted for the second time in three months and at the lowest level since July 2024. Meanwhile, the delivery times index increased to -2.6 this month from -10.4 in May (the lowest reading since March 2024).

On the labor front, the number of employees index climbed to 7.9 in June from -2.8 in May, indicating employment expanded for the first time in three months and at the highest level since January. In June, a higher 17.0% of respondents reported increases in employment, while 9.2% reported declines; 73.8% reported no change in employment levels. The average employee workweek index fell to -6.5 this month, the first negative reading and lowest since February, from 1.2 in May.

Inflation indicators were mixed in June. The prices paid index rose to 53.2 this month following an 11.4-point drop to 47.9 in May. A higher 53.5% of respondents reported increases in input prices in June, while only 0.4% reported decreases. The prices received index fell to 20.3, a four-month low, after a 7.2-point May decline to 26.3. In June, 20.3% of respondents reported increases in prices received, while 0.0% reported decreases.

The future indexes remained in positive territory, signaling continued overall growth over the next six months, with most future indicators rising. The future general activity diffusion index edged down to 50.2 in June from 53.2 in May, staying positive since February 2024. Future indexes for new orders (60.8 vs. 53.5) and shipments (60.3 vs. 45.7) increased in June (vs. May) and remained positive. Notably, the future capital expenditures index rose to 41.2 this month, the highest level since June 2021, from 30.9 in May. The following future indexes slipped in June (vs. May) but stayed in positive territory: employment (30.8 vs. 31.7), unfilled orders (17.3 vs. 19.2), and inventories (10.0 vs. 11.8). Prices continued to increase, with the future prices paid index easing to a still-elevated 63.2 in June from 70.0 in May and the future prices received index rising to 67.2, the highest level since August 2021, from 60.5.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The indexes range from -100 to +100 with positive values indicating an increase in activity. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Current General Activity Index up 10.7 pts. to 10.3 in June; fifth rise in six months.
- New Orders (27.3), sixth expansion in seven mths.; Shipments (14.9), seventh straight expansion; Unfilled Orders (10.5), first expansion since July ’25.
- Employment (7.9), a five-month high after two mths. of contraction.
- Inflation indicators: Prices Paid up (53.2); Prices Received down (20.3, a four-month low).
- Future General Activity Index down to a still-expansion-level 50.2; most subindexes up and positive; future price indexes remaining above long-run avgs.

U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Returns to Positive Territory in June

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Unemployment in the European Monetary Union stayed at 6.3% in April, just a tick above its all-time low. In the more inclusive EU, the unemployment rate hovered at 6%, just two tenths of a percentage point above its all-time low. Unemployment conditions in the monetary union remain low without many signs of acceleration.

The unemployment rate in April fell in Italy, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, and the Netherlands. The unemployment rate increased month-to-month in Finland.

In March, the unemployment rate declined in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Finland, Italy, and the Netherlands. It rose month-to-month in Greece and Luxembourg.

Over three months, the unemployment rate in these 12-early reporting monetary union members fell in five countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, Ireland, and the Netherlands. In contrast, unemployment rose in five countries: Portugal, Greece, France, Finland, and Austria.

Over six months, unemployment rates fell in six countries: the Netherlands, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Belgium, and Austria. This was against increases in six countries: Greece, Finland, France, Luxembourg, Spain, and Ireland.

Year over year, the degree of inflation progress is much thinner, with the unemployment rates falling in only three countries Italy, Spain, and Portugal with increases in unemployment for all the other countries in the table.

Unemployment rates continue to rank low in the monetary union, with only three monetary union countries having their unemployment rates ranked above 50%, putting them above their respective medians on data back to the year 2000. Those three countries are Luxembourg, Finland, and Austria. For the remaining countries, the rankings of their unemployment rates over this period are not even as high as their 30th percentiles. Italy, at present, is experiencing its lowest unemployment rate of the period.

Unemployment conditions in the monetary union remain solid. The past two weeks were significant for monetary policy and global economics, with the ECB raising rates, Japan raising rates, and the United States keeping rates unchanged but moving away from an easing bias in policy that had been in effect for quite a number of months. Today the Bank of England, after experiencing some significant inflation progress, decided to keep its policy on hold for another session. An agreement between the U.S. and Iran securing an opening of the Strait of Hormuz was signed, paving the way for potentially improved oil flows, lower inflation, and less uncertainty in the period ahead.

Economy in Brief

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