Tom Moeller

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Manufacturing activity in Texas continued to weaken this month, according to the  Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The general business activity index of –15.7  compared to -13.5 in February; it’s been negative since last May. The latest reading compared to a low of -23.7 in July of last year.  A slightly improved 12.6% of respondents reported improved business activity in March, down from 17.2% in January. An increased 28.3% of respondents reported a worsening of business conditions, the most in three months. The company outlook index improved slightly to -13.3 in March from -17.5 in February, but it has been negative since March, 2022. Data were collected from March 14-22 from 92 Texas manufacturers.

The shipments index fell to -10.5 from -5.0 and stood at its lowest level since May 2020, down from 26.1 in November 2021. A greatly lessened 19.1% of respondents reported more shipments while a fairly steady 29.6% reported a decline. The hours-worked measure declined to 2.6 from 4.9. It was the weakest measure in four months.

To the upside, the employment index rose to 10.4 from -1.0 as a greatly increased 24.1% of respondents reported a rise in hiring, while a lessened 13.7% reported a decline. The production index improved to 2.5 in March from -2.8 in February. A slightly lessened 23.3% of respondents reported higher production while a greatly fewer 20.8% reported a decline. The growth rate of orders index rose this month to -15.2 from -16.9 in February, but has been negative since May of last year. The unfilled orders reading rose to -9.4 from -13.3.

Inflation indicators fell this month. The index for prices received for finished goods declined to 7.0 from 15.8. It was the lowest reading since November 2020. It was down from a high of  51.3 high in October 2021. A lessened 17.7% of respondents reported raising prices while an increased 10.7% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials weakened to 20.3 this month, the lowest level since July 2020, significantly below 73.4 last March and an 84.1 high in November 2021.

Expectations for future manufacturing activity deteriorated this month. The future general business activity index stood at -11.2 in March, its 11th consecutive negative reading. The future production index fell to 13 .5 from 21.3  as the future employment index also dropped sharply to its lowest level in five months. The future shipments index weakened as did the hours-worked measure. Showing improvement, the future capital spending measure rose to its highest level since July of last year.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- General business activity slips; expectations deteriorate.
- Shipments & hours-worked drop, but employment & production improve.
- Pricing & wage pressures diminish.

Texas Manufacturing Activity Indexes Remain Negative in March

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In this Advance Report, Durable Goods Orders declined 1.0% (+2.2% y/y) in February after a 5.0% weakening in January, revised from -4.5%. Expectations had been for a 1.0% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

A 2.8% decline (+3.4% y/y) in transportation sector orders led last month’s orders decline, following a 14.0% January drop. Orders for nondefense aircraft & parts dropped 6.6% last month after plummeting 56.3% in January. Orders for defense aircraft also weakened 11.1%. It followed a 2.6% in January gain. Elsewhere in the transportation sector, motor vehicle & parts orders weakened 0.9% (+11.6% y/y) after holding roughly steady in January.  Subtracting transportation sector orders altogether, durable goods orders held steady (+1.7% y/y) after rising 0.4% in January.

Machinery orders weakened 0.5% in February (+3.0% y/y) after rising 0.7% in January. Computer & electronic product orders slipped 0.1% (3.6% y/y) after a 0.2% January improvement. Improving by 1.0% (8.3% y/y) were electrical equipment & appliance orders, which added to a 2.1% jump in January. Fabricated metals orders improved 0.4% (-1.0% y/y) after easing for six consecutive months. Primary metals orders rose 0.3% (0.5% y/y), following a 1.0% rise.

Capital goods orders fell 2.2% (-1.3% y/y) after a 13.7% decline as nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft improved 0.2% (4.3% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. Defense capital goods orders fell 7.4% (+1.1% y/y) following a 2.8% January gain.

Shipments of durable goods fell 0.6% (+5.6% y/y) after weakening 0.4% in January. Shipments of nondurable goods fell 0.5% (+3.2% y/y) after a 1.0% January gain. Total manufacturing shipments declined 0.5% (+4.4% y/y) in February, reversing the 0.3% January rise. Transportation equipment shipments declined 1.4% (+12.1% y/y) last month after a 2.5% drop. Excluding transportation, shipments of durable goods eased 0.1% (+2.7% y/y) following a 0.6% January rise. Core capital goods shipments held steady (+5.5% y/y) after increasing 0.9% in January.

Unfilled durable goods orders eased 0.1% last month (+5.5% y/y) after holding roughly steady in January. Manufacturing inventories slipped 0.1% (+4.6% y/y) in February after a like decline in January. Durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (4.7% y/y) while nondurable goods inventories fell 0.5% (+4.4% y/y) during February.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable goods, as well as nondurable goods, are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Unfilled orders and inventories are also included. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total orders fall for third month in last four.
- Orders are mixed across categories.
- Shipments & order backlogs ease; inventories rise.


U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline in February, as Aircraft Orders Tumble

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New single-family home sales during February rose 1.1% (-19.0% y/y) to 640,000 (SAAR) after increasing 1.8% in January to 633,000, revised from 670,000. December sales were revised to 622,000 from 625,000. Despite three consecutive months of gain, sales remained 38.2% below the August 2020 peak. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 646,000 new homes during last month.

February’s gain in new home sales reflected varied movement amongst the regions of the country. In the West, sales rose 8.1% (-33.2% y/y) to 133,000 after falling 9.6% in January. This increase was accompanied by a 3.0% gain (-8.8% y/y) in sales in the South to 415,000 following a 4.4% rise in January. Offsetting these gains, new home sales in the Northeast collapsed 40.0% (-55.3% y/y) to 21,000 after rising 20.7% in January. Also declining last month, new home sales in the Midwest fell 1.4% (-20.2% y/y) to 71,000 which reversed a 1.4% January increase to 72,000.

The median price of a new home rose 2.7% last month (2.5% y/y) to $438,200 after falling 9.2% in January. The price has fallen 11.8% since its October peak of $496,800. The average sales price of a new home improved 3.9% (-4.5% y/y) to $498,700 following a 15.4% January decline. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market fell 0.7% in February (+10.1% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted 436,000 units, up from a low of 142,000 in July 2012. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale eased minimally m/m to 8.2 months. They remained down from a high of 10.1 months in September, but above its low of 3.3 months in August 2020. The median number of months a new home stayed on the market rose to 2.5 from 2.3 months in January. That remained up from the record low of 1.5 months in both September & October of last year, down from a high of 5.1 in March 2021. These data date back to January 1975.

New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Home sales rise for third straight month.
- Sales changes remain mixed regionally.
- Median sales price gain fails to recoup earlier decline.

U.S. New Home Sales Increase Further in February

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.19 during February from an unrevised +0.23 in January, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The figure was improved from its most negative reading a -0.62 in November. An unchanged index had been expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey.

The index's three-month moving average, which smooths out volatility, edged up to -0.13 last month from -0.27 in January. The reading was higher than a low of -0.38 in December. During the last 10 years, there has been a 71% correlation between the change in the Chicago Fed Index and quarterly growth in real GDP.

The Production & Income index fell to -0.08 in February from +0.15 in January. It compared to -0.66 in December. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours index declined to -0.02 from +0.10 in January. The Personal Consumption & Housing index weakened to -0.08 from +0.10 in January, which was a 12-month high. The Sales, Orders & Inventories index of -0.02 compared to -0.12 in January and was the sixth straight negative reading.

The CFNAI diffusion index, which measures the breadth of movement in the component series, improved to 0.02 in February from -0.07 in January. It was the first positive figure in four months. Thirty-eight of the 85 component series contributed positively to the index while 47 made negative contributions to the index overall.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity moves toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of February 21, 2023. January data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published at that time. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index.

The index is constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- Reading is below zero for fourth month in last five.
- All four components are negative.
- Recent trend roughly stabilizes.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Is Negative in February

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At today’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the targeted Federal Funds Rate was raised by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00%. The increase followed a similar action at the last meeting, one 50 basis point increase at the prior meeting and four consecutive 75 basis point increases. The rate was set to the highest level since September 2007.

Following the meeting, the Fed stated,  “The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”

“In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”

In the aftermath of recent financial market events, the statement also indicated that “The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals.”
 
In addition, “The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously released plans.”

Today’s action was endorsed by each member of the FOMC.

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The Fed also updated its economic projections as follows:

FOMC Projections

- The FOMC raised the targeted Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00%. 
- Today’s decision was endorsed by each member of the FOMC.

FOMC Gradually Lifts Funds Rate

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Mortgage applications increased 3.0% (-51.6% y/y) in the week ended March 17 following a 6.5% advance in the prior week. It was the third consecutive weekly gain. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

Applications to refinance an existing loan increased 4.9% (-68.4% y/y) following a 4.8% gain. It also was the third straight weekly rise. Purchase loan applications improved for the third straight month. The 2.2% gain (-36.2% y/y) followed a 7.3% increase.

The percentage of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 28.6% in the week ended March 17 from 28.2% in the previous week. The percentage of ARM loan applications edged higher to 8.6% from 8.5% in the prior week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan eased to 6.67% last week from 6.94% in the week previous. This compares to an average of 6.68% for the four weeks of February. The effective rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages declined to 6.17% from 6.33% in the prior week. It was the lowest rate in five weeks, down from a 6.77% high in the third week of October. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans fell to 6.46% from 6.56% in the week of March 10. The rate on a 5-year ARM fell to 5.86%, down from a 6.21% high early in November.

The average loan size rose 1.8% (0.4% y/y) to $389,000 in the week ended March 17. The series high of $401,900 was reached in the week ended May 6, 2022. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.6% (-4.9%) in the latest week to $437,700. The average loan size to refinance a mortgage gained 3.8% (-10.2% y/y) to $267,700.

The Mortgage Bankers Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- Refinancing & purchase loans both rise.
- Interest rates decline again.

Mortgage Applications Continue to Increase

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Despite higher mortgage rates, home demand has strengthened. Sales of existing homes increased 14.5% during February (-22.6% y/y) to 4.580 million (SAAR) after easing an unrevised 0.7% to 4.000 million in January. Sales stood at the highest level since September after falling in January to a roughly twelve-year low. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected February sales of 4.20 million units.

Single-family home sales rose 15.3% (-21.4% y/y) to 4.140 million after weakening an unrevised 0.8% in January to 3.590 million units. Sales had fallen consistently in each month since early-2022. Condo and co-op sales improved 7.3% (-32.3% y/y) to 440,000 after holding steady m/m in January.

Sales rose m/m across the country. In the West, sales strengthened 19.4% (-28.3% y/y) to 860,000 after a 2.9% January improvement. Sales in the South increased 15.9% (-21.3% y/y) to 211,000 last month following a 1.1% January rise. Also strengthening by 13.5% (-18.7% y/y) in February were sales in the Midwest to 1.090 million after falling 5.0% in the prior month to 960,000. Sales in the Northeast posted a lesser 4.0% gain (-25.7% y/y) to 520,000 which recovered all of the January decline.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) held steady (+15.3% y/y) at 980,000 in February after increasing 2.1% in January, which was the first after five straight months of decline. The supply of homes on the market (NSA) fell to 2.6 months from 2.9 months at the current selling rate, but remained higher than the record low of 1.6 months reached in January of last year. These figures date back to January 1999.

The median price of an existing home (NSA) rose 0.5% (-0.2% y/y) to $363,000 following seven straight months of decline. They were 12.3% below the June peak of $413,800. Prices rose last month in most regions of the country except the Northeast where they declined 7.1% (-4.5% y/y). The median price of an existing single-family home rose 0.6% (-0.7% y/y) to $367,500 while the price of existing co-ops and condos were fairly steady (+2.5% y/y) at $321,000.
		
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales strengthen to five-month high.
- Improvement is widespread across regions.
- Home price decline stabilizes.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Surge During February

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Retail gasoline prices declined in the week ended March 20 to $3.42 per gallon (-19.3% y/y) after rising to $3.46 per gallon in the previous week. Prices, nevertheless, remained above the $3.34 low at the end of February. Gasoline prices remained below the mid-June 2022 peak of $5.01 per gallon but above their late December 2022 low of $3.09. The retail price of diesel fuel declined to $4.19 per gallon (-18.5% y/y) last week from $4.25 per gallon in the previous week. The price reached a recent peak of $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June 2022.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil weakened to $69.71 per barrel (-30.6% y/y) in the week ended March 17 from $77.35 in the prior week. Prices stood at the lowest level since the first week of December 2021, down by almost half from the recent high in the second week of June 2022. Yesterday, the price as $67.62 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil eased to $74.98 per barrel (-31.6% y/y) last week after easing to $82.86 per barrel in the previous week. The price peaked at $127.40 in mid-June of 2022. Yesterday, the price was $72.42 per barrel.

The price of natural gas was little changed at $2.47/mmbtu (-47.2% y/y) from $2.48/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices have fallen from their recent high of $6.78/mmbtu in the third week of December and from $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August of 2022. The decline reflects unseasonably mild temperatures this winter and improved energy efficiency, which have reduced demand for natural gas. Yesterday, the price was $2.23/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended March 10, gasoline demand declined 0.4% from a year earlier after having fallen 0.2% y/y in the prior week. These declines compare to 15.2% y/y growth at the end of 2021. Demand for all petroleum products fell 6.4% y/y in the latest four weeks in contrast to the 14.4% annual growth at the end of 2021. Crude oil input to refineries fell 2.1% y/y.

Gasoline inventories declined 2.1% y/y in the week ended March 10 compared to a 2.7% y/y decline in the prior week, while crude oil inventories fell a steady 14.1% y/y. Working the other way, inventories of distillate fuel oil increased 4.8% y/y and residual crude oil inventories rose 14.8% y/y.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended March 10 fell to 26.8 days from 27.3 days in the previous week. It was the lowest level since late-December. The supply of crude oil eased to 31.8 days from 31.9 days in the prior week. It was increased from a low of 25.3 days at the end of last June.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** and **DAILY** databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in **USENERGY**.

- Retail gasoline prices weaken.
- Crude oil costs slip to late-2021 low.
- Natural gas prices	remain well below December high.

U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Fall

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) fell 2.1% (-19.1% y/y) during the four weeks ended March 17 to the lowest level since early-November. The index has fallen 5.3% since early-February. The decline accompanied a 0.1% improvement in factory sector output in February which followed a 1.3% January increase.

Prices in the **crude oil & benzene** group weakened 5.3% (-13.3% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 9.4% in four weeks to $71.75 per barrel and fell 29.7% y/y, while the price of the petro-chemical benzene declined 8.7% (-5.5% y/y). Excluding crude oil & benzene, the industrial commodity price index weakened 1.6% (-18.3% y/y) over the last four weeks.

**Metals** group prices fell 3.6% (-25.6% y/y) in the last four weeks. Zinc prices declined 5.6% (-23.6% y/y) while aluminum prices fell 5.7% (-32.6% y/y). The cost of scrap copper declined 2.5% in the last four weeks (-13.5% y/y) and tin prices weakened 16.7% (-47.7% y/y). Lead prices slipped 0.1% (-8.6% y/y) in the last four weeks. Working higher, the cost of steel scrap strengthened 8.4% (-27.9% y/y) in four weeks.

Prices in the **textile** group slipped 0.9% during the last four weeks and fell 8.3% y/y. Cotton prices declined 5.8% and weakened 34.3% y/y. The cost of burlap improved 0.1% (-17.0% y/y) in the last four weeks.

The **miscellaneous** group price index eased 0.1% (-23.5% y/y) during the last four weeks. Framing lumber prices rose 3.7% (-63.7% y/y) but the cost of natural rubber fell 1.7% (-16.5% y/y) in four weeks.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Crude oil prices touch 15-month low.
- Metals prices mostly weaken.
- Lumber prices improve.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Decline Broadly

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The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.3% (-6.5% y/y) during February after an unrevised 0.3% January weakening and a 0.8% December drop. The decline matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Six of the Leading Index's ten components contributed negatively to the index change including the average workweek, initial claims for unemployment insurance, the ISM new orders index, the spread between the 10- Treasury note and the Fed funds rate, consumer expectations for business/economic conditions and the leading credit index. 

The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators edged 0.1% higher in February (1.4% y/y) following two consecutive 0.2% increases. Three of the four components of the index made positive contributions to the February increase including payroll employment, personal income less transfers and manufacturing & trade sales. Contributing negatively was industrial production.

The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators increased 0.2% (6.8% y/y) in February after a 0.1% January gain. Four of the index's seven components made positive contributions to the index change including the average duration of unemployment, the business inventory-to-sales ratio, banks’ prime rate and the consumer installment credit-to-income ratio. The change in factory sector unit labor costs, C&I loans outstanding and the change in the services CPI contributed negatively.

The ratio of the Coincident index to the Lagging index suggests economic weakness ahead as it shows how the economy is performing against the excesses that are building. The ratio held steady m/m in February but remained down sharply from its March 2021 high.

The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's **BCI** database; the components are available there, and most are also in **USECON**. The expectations are in the **AS1REPNA** database. Visit the Conference Board's [site](https://www.conference-board.org/) for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.

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- Monthly decline is eleventh in a row. 
- Coincident indicators post minimal gain.
- Lagging indicators rise modestly.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Index Continues to Fall in February

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Total industrial production showed no increase during February (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.3% January rise, revised from no change, and a 1.4% December decline, revised from a 1.0% weakening, according to the Federal Reserve Board. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

By **industry groups**, manufacturing production increased 0.1% (-1.0% y/y) in February after strengthening 1.3% in January, revised from 1.0%. Durable goods output edged 0.1% higher (-0.5% y/y) after increasing 0.7% in January. Computer & electronic product production rose 1.2% (-6.0% y/y) after falling 1.7%. Electrical equipment & appliance production gained 0.9% (-1.6% y/y). Furniture production rose 0.3% (-10.9% y/y) but primary metals output held steady (-5.9% y/y). Machinery production weakened 0.4% (-1.9% y/y) after it rose 2.9% in January while motor vehicle & parts production fell 0.3% (+10.8% y/y).

Nondurable goods production increased 0.2% (-1.3% y/y) in February after rising 2.1% in January, reflecting a 0.8% decline (+10.8% y/y) in apparel & leather goods output. Textiles & product mills production weakened 2.1% (-12.2% y/y) and paper product production fell 0.9% (-11.2% y/y). Petroleum & coal production fell 0.4% (+1.3% y/y). To the upside, food, beverages & tobacco output edged 0.1% higher (-1.3 y/y) and chemicals production surged 1.2% (1.7% y/y). Production for printing & related support activities rose 0.5% (-1.5% y/y).

Utilities output increased 0.5% (-7.6% y/y) after declining 10.1% in January with warm temperatures. Meanwhile, mining activity fell 0.6 (+7.1% y/y) in February after rising 2.0% in January.

By **market groups**, consumer goods output edged 0.1% higher (-0.9% y/y) in February following three consecutive monthly declines. Nondurable consumer goods production rose 0.3% (-1.3% y/y) while durable consumer goods declined 0.5% (+0.6% y/y) with weakness in the auto sector. Business equipment output eased 0.2% (+1.4% y/y) in February following three consecutive m/m declines. Construction supplies production fell 0.5% (-2.6% y/y) while materials production edged 0.1% higher (0.3% y/y).

Amongst **special classifications**, factory output of selected high-tech industries declined 0.6% (-11.6% y/y) in February, the seventh successive m/m decline. Factory output excluding selected high-tech industries edged 0.1% higher (-0.7% y/y) and manufacturing production excluding both selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts also rose 0.1% (-1.5% y/y) following a 1.6% increase.

Capacity utilization held steady m/m at 78.0% in February. A 78.5% rate had been expected. Manufacturing capacity utilization eased to 77.6% in February after rising to 77.7% in January.

Industrial production and capacity are located in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Production weakness is broad-based amongst market groups.
- Capacity utilization is unchanged.

U.S. Industrial Production Stalls in February

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Total housing starts increased 9.8% (-18.4% y/y) during February to 1.450 million units (SAAR) from 1.321 million in January, revised from 1.309 million. The increase followed declines in six of the prior seven months. They remained 19.7% below the April 2022 peak of 1.805 million units. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.319 million starts in February.

The increase in total starts last month was powered by a 24.0% rise (9.9% y/y) in multi-family starts to 620,000, bringing them to the highest level since April 2022. The gain followed a 7.1% January increase. Single-family starts rose 1.1% (-31.6% y/y) to 830,000 after falling 6.8% in January. They remained 36.5% below the December 2020 peak.

Starts in the Northeast fell 16.5% (-20.9% y/y) to 106,000 after falling 36.2% in January. Starts in the Midwest surged 70.3% (-14.1% y/y) to 201,000, following two months of decline as multi-family starts jumped. Starts in the South increased 2.2% (-20.3% y/y) to 796,000 following a 9.6% January rise. Starts in the West rose 16.8% (-15.4% y/y) to 347,000, also reflecting strength in the multi-family sector

Building permits rose 13.8% (-17.9% y/y) to 1.524 million units during February from an unrevised 1.339 million in January. Multi-family permits rose 21.1% (14.4% y/y) to 747,000 after a 1.8% January increase. Single-family permits gained 7.6% (-35.5% y/y) to 777,000 after falling for eleven consecutive months.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Multi-family starts surge; single-family rise moderately.
- Starts are mixed across the country.
- Building permits surge, also powered by multi-family.


U.S. Housing Starts Improve in February

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