- Federal receipt growth slows in FY 2025.
- Outlay growth surges this fiscal year.
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Metals prices are mixed.
- Crude oil prices fall sharply.
- Textile prices ease.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 09 2025U.S. Wholesale Inventories & Sales Increase in March
- Inventories trend higher y/y.
- Sales increase broadly.
- Inventory-to-sales ratio steadies.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 08 2025U.S. Productivity Declines in Q1’25; Unit Labor Costs Surge
- Productivity declines with lower output.
- Compensation surge exacerbates labor market stress.
- Factory sector productivity surge lessens cost pressure.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 08 2025U.S. Housing Affordability Improves Slightly in March
- Home prices rise but mortgage rates decline.
- Median income improves.
- Affordability increases across the country.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- FOMC holds funds rate target at late-December level.
- Risk assessments include higher unemployment & inflation.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 07 2025Mortgage Applications Surge as Interest Rates Ease Last Week
- Purchase & refinancing loan applications jump.
- Effective interest rates remain range-bound.
- Average loan size increases.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 06 2025U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens to Record in March
- Goods deficit grows as imports surge ahead of tariff imposition.
- Exports edge higher, led by autos.
- Petroleum product imports fall as crude oil prices decline.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 06 2025U.S. Energy Prices Remain Mixed in Latest Week
- Gasoline prices edge higher.
- Crude oil prices decline.
- Natural gas costs rise.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 05 2025U.S. ISM Services PMI Edges Higher in April; Prices Strengthen
- Total index remains near nine-month low.
- Employment, new orders & supplier deliveries edge up. Business activity weakens.
- Prices Index strengthens to roughly two-year high.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 02 2025U.S. Job Growth Is Firm in April but March Gain Is Lessened
- Job growth spreads across most sectors.
- Earnings growth trend decelerates.
- Jobless rate holds steady.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 01 2025U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Fall in April
- Light truck sales pull back, while auto sales tumble.
- Both domestic and imported sales decline.
- Imports' market share slips further.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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