- Hiring weakens broadly; factory, construction & government jobs decline.
- Earnings gain slows y/y.
- Unemployment rate increases as job growth lags rise in labor force.
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
USA| Sep 05 2025U.S. Payroll Employment Report Reveals Unexpected Weakness in August; Earnings Rise Steadily, but Jobless Rate Increases
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 04 2025U.S. ISM Services PMI Increases in August
- Total index rebounds to six-month high.
- Business activity and new orders improve.
- Prices index eases.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 04 2025U.S. ADP Employment Increase Slows in August
- Private payroll job increase is half July’s gain.
- Goods-producing employment slows as factory hiring falls; service-sector jobs also moderate.
- Job-stayer wage growth eases.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 03 2025U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Ease in August
- Light truck sales decline while auto purchases improve.
- Domestic and import sales decline.
- Imports' market share steadies.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 03 2025U.S. JOLTS – Job Openings Decline While Hiring Improves in July
- Job openings fall for second straight month.
- Hiring improves after two consecutive months of sharp decline.
- Separations fall, quits ease but layoffs rise slightly.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 03 2025U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Rise Last Week
- Gasoline prices increase to highest level in four weeks.
- Crude oil prices recover after earlier declines.
- Natural gas prices at early-June low.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 02 2025U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Increases in August; Prices Ease
- Improvement fails to recover all of July decline.
- New orders gain offsets production decline.
- Price index falls to six-month low.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Core price increase y/y matches highest since February.
- Real spending moderation centers on services.
- Real disposable income improves; personal savings rate steadies.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 28 2025U.S. GDP Q2’25 Growth Revised Up; Profits Improve
- Business investment strengthens & consumer spending firms.
- U.S. business earnings reverse Q1 decline.
- Increase in price index is unrevised, remaining roughly half of Q1’s gain.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 28 2025U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline in July
- Decline adds to June weakness.
- Regional changes are mixed.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Purchase applications increase while loan refinancing eases.
- Fixed-interest rate on 30-year loan holds at four-month low.
- Average loan size declines again.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Monthly decline is slight, level remains up sharply from April low.
- Expectations and present situation readings decline.
- Inflation expectations rise after falling for two months.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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