- Consumer spend growth is reduced.
- Business investment growth unchanged.
- Price inflation is forecast to pick up, then moderate.
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
USA| Jun 16 2025NABE Forecasts Sharply Reduced Growth for 2025 & 2026
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 13 2025U.S. Housing Affordability Declines in April
- Home prices & mortgage rates rise.
- Median income improves.
- Affordability falls across country.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 12 2025U.S. Producer Price & Core Price Indexes Edge Higher in May
- Annual increase remains below January peak.
- Core price gain slows y/y.
- Final demand goods price increase is steady y/y while services decelerate.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 11 2025U.S. Consumer Price Index & Core Prices Rise Minimally in May
- Annual total & core gains remain on downward trend.
- Food prices increase but energy costs fall sharply.
- Core goods prices are unchanged and service price gain eases.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Deficit deepens in first eight months of FY 2025.
- Outlay growth well outpaces revenue growth so far this year.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 10 2025U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Rebounds in May
- Economic & sales expectations rise.
- Employment plans & job openings continue to weaken.
- Percent raising prices steadies but price expectations increase.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 10 2025U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week
- Gasoline prices decline to three-month low.
- Crude oil prices continue to rise.
- Natural gas prices fall further.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 09 2025U.S. Wholesale Inventories & Sales Edge Higher in April
- Inventory accumulation has been broad-based this year.
- Sales rise slightly.
- I/S ratio trends slower.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Job growth is concentrated in private services.
- Earnings gain picks up.
- Jobless rate has been roughly steady since mid-2024.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 06 2025U.S. Consumer Credit Surges in April
- Consumer credit strength exceeds expectations.
- Both nonrevolving and revolving credit move notably higher.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 05 2025U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply in April as Imports Plummet
- Tariff impositions prompt sharp decline in imports.
- Exports surge led by industrial supplies & materials.
- Petroleum product imports weaken as crude oil prices decline.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Total index nears one-year low.
- Business activity & new orders weaken. Employment & supplier deliveries improve.
- Price index approaches late-2022 high.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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