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Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we focus on the Asian consumer against the backdrop of recent global developments, alongside longer-running structural trends and economy-specific nuances. At a broad level, demographic headwinds are becoming more binding: as economies mature, population growth is slowing and ageing is accelerating, weighing on the expansion of the consumer base. At the same time, several economies are attempting to pivot toward more consumption-driven growth to help offset these forces (chart 1). More recently, while electoral outcomes in some countries have provided a boost to consumer sentiment, the renewed flare-up in the Middle East poses a near-term risk. Higher oil and energy prices threaten to squeeze household purchasing power, potentially weighing on sentiment and spending.

In China, policy efforts to raise the consumption share of GDP have delivered some early gains, reflected in firmer consumer sentiment and retail sales (chart 2). However, the impact of these measures may prove transitory if deeper structural constraints are not addressed. Encouragingly, authorities are increasingly looking to services as a new driver of consumption, given its relative underdevelopment compared to goods and manufacturing, and its potential for more sustained growth (chart 3). In Japan, post-election optimism surrounding Prime Minister Takaichi’s pro-growth agenda—including a proposed removal of the 8% consumption tax—has supported sentiment. However, rising oil prices risk reintroducing inflationary pressures, which could erode real wage gains and weigh on spending (chart 4). 

In South Korea, early signs of such pressures are already emerging (chart 5). Attention is also turning to consumer expectations, particularly around housing prices following recent cooling measures, as well as inflation expectations—especially if they begin to show signs of becoming unanchored. In Thailand, post-election optimism has similarly supported sentiment and consumption (chart 6). Nonetheless, headwinds persist, notably elevated household debt and higher oil prices. While the agreement between Thailand and Iran to allow vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz is a positive development, it remains uncertain how much relief it will ultimately provide.

**The Asian consumer**
Asia is at a crossroads. On the one hand, as is typical for maturing economies, the region is confronting slowing population growth and rapid ageing. This implies a more slowly expanding—and in some cases shrinking—consumer base, as already evident in economies such as China and Japan. At the same time, consumption patterns are shifting toward goods and services tied to ageing and retirement, as older cohorts account for a larger share of demand. On the other hand, Asia’s household consumption share of GDP has edged higher in recent years. Much of the remaining upside—relative to global averages—is concentrated in a handful of economies, most notably China, which we discuss later. A more decisive rebalancing toward consumption could unlock additional spending power across the region, partly offsetting demographic headwinds, though the net impact remains uncertain.

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**China**
Based on nominal values, China’s residential consumption share of GDP has trended higher in recent years, reaching just under 40% in 2024. However, this remains well below levels seen in most other economies, particularly developed ones. As such, China still has some distance to go in pivoting away from its traditional reliance on exports and investment toward a more consumption-led growth model. To support this shift, authorities have rolled out a range of measures to boost consumption, including subsidies for consumer durable goods trade-ins. However, given the nature of durables, such policies tend to front-load demand, raising questions about the sustainability of any initial consumption boost once replacement cycles are largely exhausted. Indeed, while retail consumption has posted decent growth in recent years, the pace has been gradually moderating, suggesting some loss of momentum.

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At the same time, policymakers are increasingly focusing on services as a potential next driver of consumption growth. This shift is intuitive, given that the services sector remains relatively underdeveloped compared to the goods sector, where years of manufacturing expansion have led to substantial capacity and, in some areas, oversupply. In response, authorities have extended tax incentives and subsidies to selected service industries to stimulate demand. That said, beyond targeted incentives, a more durable rebalancing toward consumption will likely require deeper structural reforms. Economists have long pointed to the need for stronger social safety nets, improvements in healthcare and pension systems, and sustained wage growth to reduce precautionary savings and support household spending. In addition, addressing the prolonged weakness in the property sector could provide a meaningful boost to consumption via wealth effects.

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**Japan**
Turning to Japan, chart 4 suggests the consumer backdrop remains mixed. Growth in retail sales and household spending has struggled to stay consistently in positive territory, while real wage growth has been negative for much of recent years—albeit with a return to positive territory in January. That said, expectations are building around Prime Minister Takaichi’s pro-growth agenda to support consumption, including proposals such as eliminating Japan’s 8% consumption tax. However, questions remain over both the effectiveness of such measures and their fiscal implications More recently, external factors have also come into play. In particular, the inflationary impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict—via higher oil prices—poses a renewed risk. While this year’s Shunto spring wage negotiations have delivered strong nominal wage gains, sustained price pressures could erode real incomes, potentially reversing recent gains. This, in turn, may also prompt further monetary policy tightening, adding another headwind to consumption.

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**South Korea**
Turning to South Korea, retail sales volumes have shown some encouraging growth in recent months. However, as with many Asian economies—particularly oil importers—this momentum risks being undermined by the recent surge in energy prices following the Middle East conflict. Early signs of a softening consumer outlook are already evident. South Korea’s latest consumer survey readings have fallen to a 10-month low, pointing to a deterioration in sentiment. A closer look suggests that domestic factors are also at play. Notably, expectations for housing prices have weakened following recent policy measures aimed at curbing property prices and household debt. At the same time, inflation expectations have edged higher, albeit modestly. Should these expectations become unanchored and rise more sharply, this could increase the likelihood of further monetary policy tightening—adding another potential headwind to consumption.

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**Thailand**
Lastly, we turn to Thailand, where the consumer backdrop has improved in recent months (chart 6), with both sentiment and growth in the central bank’s private consumption measure picking up. This likely reflects, in part, post-election optimism following Prime Minister Anutin’s victory, alongside expectations of supportive stimulus measures and a reduction in prior political uncertainty. That said, headwinds remain. Thai households continue to face elevated, though not identical, indebtedness challenges relative to peers such as South Korea, with household debt-to-disposable income still just above 150% as of Q3 2025. While such levels have been sustained for some time, risks may crystallise further out if households become less able to service their debt burden. More recently, external pressures have also re-emerged via the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices. Although Thailand and Iran have reportedly reached an agreement allowing oil vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz—an encouraging development—price risks persist amid broader supply constraints that continue to keep energy markets tight.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Consumer Watch

Robert Brusca

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French manufacturing, as assessed by the INSEE survey, fell sharply to a reading of 98.7 in March from February’s 101.7. The industrial sector reading weakened further, having already fallen to 101.7 in February from 105.4 in January. The January reading was the strongest reading since July 2022, as the rebound from COVID had gathered momentum.

Now, events in the Middle East, a dragged-out war in Ukraine, and a long period of inadequate growth in the wake of COVID, and the imposition of Tariffs by the United States are taking a toll on an economy less able to absorb shocks.

Just as inflation had settled down, there is a new oil shock in progress, a result of the attack in Iran, meant to defang it from its nuclear obsessions and its ambitions to dominate geopolitics in the Middle East by supporting various regional militia groups. The European Central Bank had corralled inflation more than controlled it, but now the ECB is more worried about oil and its impact on inflation and is determined not to make ‘the same mistake again’ referring to its procrastinated timeline for raising rates during COVID. Both the BOE and the ECB have said if the war is still in progress at the time of their next meetings, a rate hike is likely.

So, in several ways, it is a different world. In the United States, it is the same old world as the Fed has been uncommunicative about its strategy in the face of war and rising energy prices. The Fed has offered essentially no guidance. But the ECB and BOE have made clear they are not waiting on the Fed this time around.

The French economy’s main industrial indicator has a 25-percentile standing in March, a lower one-quartile ranking. Production expectations slipped to -9.4 in March from -5.7 in February, corresponding to a 37.5 percentile standing. The recent trend and own industrial likely trend both eased on the month, with the overall trend to 23.4 percentile standing and the personal likely trend to a still-above-median 50.9 percentile standing. Industrial respondents see the overall manufacturing situation as worse than their own personal prospect. Is that denial in action or excessive macroeconomic pessimism? That is something to watch for.

Orders and demand as well as foreign orders and demand fell in March. They had also fallen in February relative to January. The March readings show a 40.9 percentile standing for orders and demand against a slightly higher 47.8 percentile standing for foreign orders and demand.

The price survey news is bad. Both the own likely price trend and the manufacturing price level are higher in March and had already moved higher in February relative to January. The price expectations rank in the 74.9 percentile for own likely price trend and at the 66.3 percentile for the manufacturing price level.

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**Summing up**
All in all, the manufacturing situation in France is in flux. Monetary policy is hostage to war developments, as seems reasonable. But the war is not concluding quickly, despite a quick miliary emasculation of Iran’s armed forces. The leadership is trying to cling to power in a country where it has brutalized and subjugated its people, knowing full well that if the regime falls, the leadership will be on the run. So, the leadership, decimated as it is, has dug in and moved to be as defiant and possible—hoping that ‘politics’ on the other side will cave in first. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz is its key trump card, but it is not clear how long it will be able to make that threat effective. That is the whole ‘game’ in the Middle East now. It is less about Iran and more about oil and oil supply. Stay focused on that.

France

France: INSEE MFG Weakens as Inflation Expectations Surge

Andrew Cates

**The global business cycle**
Our first chart this week looks at the March flash composite PMIs—one of the earliest sentiment reads on how the Middle East crisis, which escalated at the end of February, is feeding through into global activity. The message on momentum is soft. Three-month changes are generally weak—and in several cases negative—pointing to a modest cooling in growth as we moved into March. But the level still matters. Most major economies remain in expansion territory (above 50), including India, the US, UK, euro area and Japan. So while growth has lost a little pace, it has not collapsed. The main exceptions are France and Australia, where PMIs are now below 50, signalling contraction. Elsewhere, this looks less like a sharp shock and more like an early loss of momentum—potentially just the first pass of the geopolitical impact rather than the full effect.

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**The age of uncertainty**
Our second chart underscores just how elevated—and persistent—global policy uncertainty has become. While spikes in uncertainty are nothing new, what stands out here is the shift in regime: rather than brief, event-driven surges, uncertainty now appears to be running at structurally higher levels, punctuated by sharper geopolitical shocks—most recently the escalation in the Middle East. This matters because uncertainty is no longer just cyclical noise around the business cycle; it is increasingly a feature of the economic backdrop itself. A more fragmented geopolitical order, the weaponisation of trade and finance, the energy transition, and more activist—and at times less predictable—fiscal and industrial policy are all contributing to a world where firms and households face a more complex and less stable decision-making environment.

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**Global supply chains under strain**
A key channel through which this elevated uncertainty is manifesting is in global supply chains. After easing back from the pandemic-era extremes, supply chain stress is once again trending higher—and, more importantly, appears to be settling at a structurally elevated level. The drivers are increasingly familiar. Geopolitical fragmentation and trade tensions are reshaping production networks; conflict-related disruptions (including in the Middle East) are affecting key shipping routes; and firms are deliberately trading efficiency for resilience via reshoring, friend-shoring and inventory rebuilding. Layer on top the energy transition—which is reconfiguring commodity flows—and the result is a system that is inherently more complex and arguably more prone to disruption. Methodologically, the index captures these pressures by tracking the movement of large, globally significant container vessels (Panamax and above, >4,000 TEU) using shipping data. In other words, it focuses on the core arteries of global trade rather than regional flows—making the recent rise all the more telling.

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**Monetary policy in an uncertain world**
It almost goes without saying that, in a world of greater supply-side complexity, uncertainty around the path of monetary policy has also moved higher. The challenge for central banks is clear: they are attempting to steer demand in an environment where inflation is increasingly being driven by supply shocks—energy, geopolitics, supply chains—rather than traditional cyclical forces. That makes the reaction function harder to read, both for policymakers and markets. This is reflected in the Kansas City Fed’s measure of policy rate uncertainty, which has risen markedly since the pandemic and remains elevated. The index is derived from market pricing and captures the dispersion of expectations around where short-term U.S. interest rates will be one year ahead—effectively a real-time gauge of how confident (or not) markets are about the policy outlook. In that sense, monetary policy uncertainty is no longer just about timing or calibration. It reflects a deeper question about effectiveness: how central banks respond in a world where the sources of inflation—and the structure of the economy itself—have fundamentally shifted.

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**The limits of monetary policy**
This brings us to a more subtle—but arguably more important—challenge for policymakers: credibility. The Bank of England/Ipsos inflation attitudes survey shows that a consistently large share of respondents do not believe that higher interest rates will slow inflation over the medium term. In other words, the core transmission mechanism of monetary policy—working through expectations—is being called into question. That matters because if households don’t see rate hikes as disinflationary, then managing inflation expectations becomes significantly harder. Instead of anchoring expectations, tighter policy may even be perceived as part of the inflation problem itself—raising mortgage costs and reinforcing the sense that prices are still rising. In the context of a supply-constrained world, this is a serious complication. Monetary policy is being asked to do more, in an environment where its effectiveness may be diminished—and where expectations are increasingly shaped by lived experience (energy, food, housing) rather than central bank signalling.

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**Anchored inflation expectations**
Finally, and on a slightly more reassuring note, markets are not (yet) extrapolating the recent energy shock into a sustained inflation problem. Oil prices have spiked sharply in response to the latest Middle East escalation, but US medium-term inflation expectations—proxied here by the 5-year forward—have remained relatively contained. That divergence matters. It suggests that, for now at least, markets still see energy-driven inflation as temporary rather than systemic. In other words, while the supply side remains volatile, the broader inflation regime has not become unanchored. In the context of everything discussed above—higher uncertainty, strained supply chains and more complex policy trade-offs—that resilience in expectations offers a degree of comfort. It implies that credibility, while challenged, has not been lost—and that the system still has some anchors, even in a more fragmented and supply-constrained world.

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Recent de-escalation signals in the Middle East have offered some relief to markets, but the economic aftershocks from the earlier escalation are still feeding through—particularly via energy prices and heightened geopolitical risk. Crucially, these shocks are not hitting a clean cyclical backdrop. Instead, they are amplifying a set of pre-existing supply-side pressures—fragmented trade, strained supply chains, and a more complex policy environment—that have been building for some time. The charts this week pick up that theme. Forward-looking sentiment indicators suggest global growth has lost some momentum, even if activity remains in expansion territory (chart 1). At the same time, broader measures of uncertainty remain elevated (chart 2), while supply chain stress is once again moving higher, reinforcing the idea that disruption is becoming more structural (chart 3). Financial markets are reflecting this shift, with increased uncertainty around the future path of policy rates (chart 4), and survey evidence pointing to a more fundamental challenge around the credibility and transmission of monetary policy itself (chart 5). And yet, there are some offsets. Despite the recent spike in oil prices, medium-term inflation expectations—at least in the US—remain relatively well anchored (chart 6). Even so, the overall message is one of a more fragile, supply-driven cycle—where shocks like the Middle East do not just disrupt the outlook, but intensify the underlying constraints shaping the global economy.

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Charts of the Week: A Supply-Constrained World Comes into Sharper Focus

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 5,000 to 210,000 in the week ending March 21, from an unrevised level of 205,000 in the week ending March 14. The four-week average declined 250 to 210,500 in the March 21 week from the unrevised average of 210,750 in the prior week. The Forecast Survey looked for 210,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—declined by 32,000 to 1.819 million in the week ending March 14, from 1.851 million in the week ending March 7 revised from 1.857 million. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since May 25, 2024, when it was 1,804 million. The four-week moving average stood at 1.847 million, a decline of 2,000 from 1.849 million in the week ended March 7. This is the lowest level for this average since October 5, 2024, when it was 1,846 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of March 14. It has remained at that level since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending March 7, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (3.00%), New Jersey (2.80%), Massachusetts (2.70%), Washington (2.40%), Minnesota (2.30%), California (2.20%), New York and Illinois (both 2.10%), Montana (2.07%) and Michigan and Montana (both 2.00%). The lowest rates were in Florida and Louisiana (both 0.30%), and Arkansas, Alabama and North Carolina (all 0.40%). Rates in other notable states include Connecticut (1.90%), Pennsylvania (1.80%), and Texas (1.10%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims rose by 5,000 to 210,000.
- Continuing claims declined by 32,000 to 1.819 million, the lowest level for insured unemployment since May 25, 2024.
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Edged Up in the Week of March 21

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**Current global money and credit trends**
Money supply growth accelerated in February over three months compared to six months in the United States and the United Kingdom. In the EMU, money growth backed down from a 6.3% growth rate over six months to a still hot 5.6% over three months. Japan, as always, was the exception, with money growth sinking to a weak 1.5% over three months from 2.1% over six months. And the Bank of Japan still has its sights on raising rates further and bringing the level of interest rates eventually to a normalized level. In the EMU, credit growth accelerated as private credit grew at a 5.4% pace over three months, up from 5.1% over six months.

**Excessive money growth**: Money and credit growth are excessive compared to what would seem to be equilibrium conditions. Those conditions right now have economic growth weak, in the region of 1% to 2%, and monetary targets are 2% all around. All of them are being exceeded—at least in terms of core inflation rates.

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**And yet the policy tilt had been toward more ease**: Central banks had been making ready to cut rates again in their perceived long march back to normalcy for their key benchmark rates. But inflation has been over target since the wake of COVID either for headline inflation, core inflation, or both, depending on the country. Yet, central bankers have been looking to reduce interest rates to perceived long-run equilibrium norms even in the face of excessive inflation. This has been a remarkable and frustrating period for anyone who thought that 2% meant 2%. Central bankers have been engaged in a strange new calculus we could call Wimpy-nomics (in honor of Popeye’s friend) because they would gladly promise you 2% in the future for something excessive today—accompanied by rate cuts.

**Bit-in-the-teeth-onomics**: Even the Trump tariffs did not untrack this train of thought. It spawned more excuses about how it was temporary and could be ignored. The Iran war brought more of that until oil prices hit triple digits; that seems have sobered up some central bankers. Still, in recent central bank meetings the Fed gave us no clues on policy, while both the ECB and the BOE talked of likely hikes if the war was still engaged at the time of their next meetings. And some central bankers try to disabuse us of the notion that policy is not on a preconceived course and is data dependent.

**Growth rules**: Money growth is and has been excessive, and money growth rates have progressed to excessive norms over three months, six months, and even 12 months (in the U.S.). Full employment growth plus 2% should max out money growth; those metrics would put max money growth at 3% or 4%, depending on the country. Maybe U.S. productivity is in gear, and the U.S. can step that up. But so far, the demonstrable excess is inflation, soaking up the extra nominal GDP growth.

**Back from the brink**: The Iran war has brought policymakers back from the brink even if some won’t tell us what they think. ‘Data dependent’ does not begin to cut it because the question is about oil prices—how long they will stay elevated and how high they will go. The rear-view mirror will not answer that question, nor will it set out a reliable trend. So, the concept of data-dependency does not work here. Meanwhile, oil prices are surging, and Iran is refusing to roll over and play dead, even though its leaders have very few options—and none of them are good. The country has no cohesive military left, just a few pockets of some military capability and a population that, if it could, would overrun the leadership over the way it has been abused and steamrolled. Leadership has refused to give in, but if the regime falls, none of its leaders would survive a rebellion by the locals after the way they were treated.

**The operative ‘model’**: The ‘model’ for Iran is catastrophe theory. It will look like the regime is in power until its repressive dam breaks, and then it will be all over. Will the regime hold? That is hard to predict—it’s hard to know—because the regime might even survive. What markets need to know especially about is control of the Strait of Hormuz. Securing that strait is now the policy and military focus. Can the strait be secured if the regime holds on? That may be the critical question we need answered about Iran. The economics are not about money or inflation anymore. The future is about oil more than money, and that is why the future is so uncertain. War is simply not predictable. Money supply is. But even then, central banks may choose to not control it as they should, and as they have promised, as we have seen. Whenever a policymaker has a choice to make, one option is always the wrong one. Let’s hope that is not the one they pick.

Globally Money Supplies Retain Hot Growth

Michael J. Moran

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The current account measures the economic interactions of the US with foreign economies. It could be viewed as a cash flow statement, showing receipts into the US economy and payments to foreign entities. Two broad categories are involved: trade in goods and services and income flows.

The US typically runs a deficit in the current account, registering a shortfall in every quarter since 1991-Q3; it last recorded an annual surplus in 1981. Current account deficits moved to striking levels the past two years, although the results were less alarming when measured as a share of GDP (4.0% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025 versus the record of 5.9% in 2006). Moreover, hints of improvement have emerged recently.

Last year involved considerable volatility in the trade portion of the current account, as President Trump’s tariff threats led to a burst in imports in Q1. The import surge was largely offset in the second quarter, leading to a narrower deficit, but the trade shortfall continued to improve in the third and fourth quarters. Dips in imports of goods in the third and fourth quarters suggest some residual offset to the Q1 increase, but solid growth in exports throughout 2025 after slow results in 2024 suggested that fundamentals might be turning in favor of the US. By the fourth quarter, the deficit in goods and service trade was not far out of line with readings before the pandemic.

The income portion of the current account also showed signs of improvement in the fourth quarter. This section of the current account has two subcomponents: primary income and secondary income. Secondary income covers transfer payments, which are advances for which no goods or services are received in return for the outlay. Examples include personal remittances, pension payments (including Social Security), casualty insurance settlements, and charitable donations. Secondary income flows changed little in Q4.

However, primary income flows jumped in the final months of last year. Historically, the US registered a healthy inflow of primary income, which includes investment income, labor compensation, and miscellaneous items. Primary income, led by the investment component, began to soften around the time of the pandemic, and it moved into negative territory during much of 2024 and 2025. The fourth quarter, though, brought a notable rebound, pulling it into the plus column. The improvement was the result of returns on direct investment rather than on portfolio income, and the new total was far above other recent readings. One wonders about random volatility or a one-time gain, but for now it represents a welcome development.

Balance of Payments data are in Haver’s **USINT** database, with summaries available in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Firm exports boosted the trade component.
- Primary income flows rebounded from soft showings in prior quarters.

Current Account: Notable Improvement in Q4

Winnie Tapasanun

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Import prices rose a more-than-expected 1.3% m/m in February, the largest monthly increase since March 2022, after upwardly revised rises of 0.6% in January (+0.2% initially) and 0.1% in December (+0.2% previously), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 1.3% in February, the highest since February 2025, from 0.3% in January. Export prices advanced a higher-than-expected 1.5% m/m in February, the fastest monthly pace since May 2022, after unrevised increases of 0.6% in both January and December. The y/y rate quickened to 3.5% in February, the highest since September, from 2.6% in January (2.7% in February 2025). The Action Economics Forecast survey had expected m/m rises of 0.4% in import prices and 0.5% in export prices for February. _(**Note**: Import and export price indexes are not directly affected by tariffs because they measure the prices of goods before taxes. Tariffs are classified as taxes and therefore are excluded from these calculations. October 2025 data were unavailable due to the U.S. federal government shutdown.)_

The m/m rise in February import prices reflected a 3.8% rebound (-10.6% y/y) in imported fuel prices after a 1.2% decline in January (-2.2% initially). The fuel price rebound was led by a 24.7% jump (+57.9% y/y) in natural gas, followed by rises of 6.3% (-6.2% y/y) in other petroleum products, 4.6% (-10.5% y/y) in fuel oil, 3.1% (-21.3% y/y) in liquefied petroleum gases, 2.5% (-14.8% y/y) in petroleum & petroleum products, and 1.1% (-17.4% y/y) in crude oil. Nonfuel import prices rose 1.1% (2.5% y/y) in February after a 0.8% increase in January (+0.5% initially). Import prices for the following categories all rose m/m in February: nonfuel industrial supplies & materials (+2.6%; +9.6% y/y), capital goods (+1.3%; +3.9% y/y), foods, feeds & beverages (+0.8%; -3.4% y/y), consumer goods excluding autos (+0.5%; +0.6% y/y), and automotive vehicles & parts (+0.2%; -0.9% y/y).

The February advance in export prices reflected m/m gains in both agricultural and nonagricultural export prices. Agricultural export prices rose 0.7% (2.2% y/y) in February, the fourth m/m rise in five months, on top of a 0.2% increase in January (unrevised). Nongricultural export prices climbed 1.7% (3.8% y/y) after rising 0.7% in January and December. Export prices for industrial supplies & materials (+3.5%; +4.4% y/y), foods, feeds & beverages (+0.9%; +2.8% y/y), consumer goods excluding autos (+0.7%; +4.0% y/y), capital goods (+0.2%; +3.0% y/y), and automotive vehicles & parts (+0.1%; +2.6% y/y) all increased m/m in February.

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Import prices +1.3% m/m (+1.3% y/y) in Feb., led by a 3.8% rebound in fuel import prices.
- Excluding fuels, import prices +1.1% m/m (+2.5% y/y) after a 0.8% Jan. increase.
- Export prices +1.5% m/m (+3.5% y/y), driven by a 1.7% gain in nonagricultural exp. prices.

U.S. Import and Export Prices Jump in February, Exceeding Expectations

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Mortgage applications dropped 10.5% w/w (+25.5% y/y) in the week ending March 20, after dropping 10.9% w/w (+37.5% y/y) in the week ending March 13, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 5.4% w/w (+5.0% y/y) in the latest week after rising 0.9% w/w (11.8% y/y) in the week ending March 13.  Applications for loan refinancing dropped 14.6% w/w (+52.2% y/y) in the week ending March 20, after declining 18.5% w/w (+68.8% y/y) in the week ending March 13.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 14bps to 6.62% in the week ending March 20 from 6.48% in the week ending March 13 and reaching the highest level since the September 26 week when it stood at 6.64%. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 19bps to 6.03% in the latest week from 5.84% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 12bps to 6.61% in the week ending March 20 from 6.49% in the March 13 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM jumped 10bps to 6.00% in the latest week from 5.90% in the week ending March 13, reaching the highest level since the September 5 week when it stood at 6.01%.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan dropped to 49.6% of total applications in the week of March 20 from 52.3% in the March 13 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.1% in the March 20 week from 8.0% in the March 13 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan declined 2.4% w/w (-0.9% y/y) to $394,500 in the week ending March 20, after declining 3.4% w/w (+0.5% y/y) to $404,000 in the week ending March 13. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.5% w/w (+2.3% y/y) to $453,200 in the March 20 week, after a rise of 2.0% w/w (1.0% y/y) to $455,300 in the March 13 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 6.3% w/w (+1.0% y/y) to $334,900, following a drop of 10.1% w/w (+6.9% y/y) to $357,300 in the week ending March 13.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and for loan refinancing dropped in the latest week.
- Double-digit basis-point rises in all interest rates.
- Average loan size declined.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped in the March 20 Week

Sandy Batten

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Total retail sales rebounded in February, rising a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m (+3.7% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.1% monthly decline in January (previously -0.2% m/m), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.4% monthly increase. Excluding autos, other sales were up 0.5% m/m (+3.6% y/y), the first monthly increase in three months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.3% m/m increase.

The control group of sales (those categories that the BEA uses to construct PCE in the national accounts) increased 0.5% m/m in February following a 0.2% increase in January. The January/February average for this variable is 2.1% annualized above the Q4 average. In Q4, the control group rose 2.8% saar from Q3. So, today’s figures point to a slight slowdown in PCE growth in the first quarter. Note, however, that the data released today predates the escalation of the conflict between the US/Israel and Iran which has led to a marked rise in gasoline/energy prices. The increase in energy prices to date, if maintained, could stress household finances and thereby significantly slow consumer spending ahead.

Sales of motor vehicles and parts jumped 1.2% m/m in February, their first monthly gain in three months and their largest monthly increase since last July. Furniture sales declined 1.0% m/m in February while sales of electronics and appliances rose 0.5% m/m. Sales of building materials increased 0.4% m/m, their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Sales at health and personal care stores jumped 2.3% m/m, their first monthly gain in five months. Sales at gasoline stations rose 0.9% m/m in February, their third monthly gain in the past four months, ahead of the sharp price increases that occurred in March. Clothing store sales jumped 2.0% m/m, their first monthly increase in three months. Department store sales gained 3.0% m/m, their first monthly increase in four months. Food sales slumped 1.0% m/m in February, their first monthly decline in three months. Sales of nonstore retailers increased 0.7% m/m in February on top of a 1.4% m/m jump in January. Eating out sales rose 0.4% m/m, their first monthly gain in three months.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total sales increased 0.6% m/m after a 0.1% m/m decline in January
- Excluding autos, sales increase 0.5% m/m in February after having been unchanged in January.
- Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.5% m/m in February.

U.S. Retail Sales Rebounded in February

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