Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

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Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

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Data Link Express

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Sectoral shift in US job openings

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total factory orders rose a more-than-expected 0.9% m/m in July, the first monthly rise since April, reversing a 0.2% decline in June, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.5% m/m July increase. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 9.9% in July, the highest since April, from 7.6% in June (+1.6% in July 2025), while remaining far below the April 2021 peak of 39.6%. Factory orders excluding defense rebounded 1.0% (8.8% y/y), up for the first time in three months, following a 0.3% June decrease. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.6% (9.2% y/y), the eighth m/m gain in nine months, after a 0.1% June downtick.

Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts jumped 12.7% in July following a 2.9% decline in June and a 51.1% plunge in May; orders for defense aircraft & parts increased 4.9% (53.5% y/y), the fifth m/m rise in six months, after a 7.0% June drop and an 8.9% May gain. Additionally, orders for ships & boats climbed 5.3% in July after rising 7.5% and 3.5% in the prior two months.

Durable goods orders advanced 1.1% (12.0% y/y) in July after a 0.6% increase in June (matching +1.1% m/m in the advance report on August 26), marking the fourth m/m rise in five months. The July m/m gain was led by a 2.3% rebound (13.7% y/y) in transportation equipment, followed by increases of 2.0% (19.1% y/y) in primary metals, 0.8% (15.3% y/y) in machinery, 0.7% (1.6% y/y) in furniture & related products, and 0.6% (10.9% y/y) in fabricated metal products. In contrast, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products (-1.1%; +14.8% y/y) and electrical equipment, appliances & components (-0.3%; +6.7% y/y) declined m/m in July.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, rose 0.7% (7.9% y/y) in July, the seventh m/m gain in eight months, after a 0.9% decline in June. The July m/m increase was driven by a 2.4% rebound (+26.2% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, followed by rises of 1.7% (+2.3% y/y) in textile products, 1.2% (-0.5% y/y) in printing, 0.7% (+2.7% y/y) in paper products, 0.6% (+2.2% y/y) in beverage & tobacco products, 0.4% (-4.7% y/y) in textile mills, 0.1% (+7.7% y/y) in chemical products, 0.1% (+1.4% y/y) in food products, and 0.1% (+3.1% y/y) in plastics & rubber products. To the downside, nondurable goods shipments for leather & allied products (-1.9%; -1.0% y/y) and apparel (-0.5%; +5.5% y/y) fell m/m in July.

Total shipments increased 0.8% (8.3% y/y) in July, up for the seventh time in eight months, after no change in June. Excluding transportation, shipments rose 0.7% (8.1% y/y), the eighth m/m gain in nine months, following a 0.1% June easing. Shipments of durable goods industries grew 0.9% (8.6% y/y), the eighth straight m/m rise, after a 1.0% June increase. This reflected m/m gains in almost all durable goods shipments categories, led by a 2.9% advance (12.6% y/y) in machinery, alongside rises of 1.9% (16.8% y/y) in primary metals, 1.3% (9.1% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.1% (2.4% y/y) in wood products, 0.8% (7.0% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods, 0.7% (2.0% y/y) in furniture & related products, and 0.2% (6.6% y/y) in fabricated metal products. In contrast, durable goods shipments for computers & electronic products (-1.2%; +8.1% y/y) and nonmetallic mineral products (-0.7%; +1.5% y/y) fell m/m in July, while those for electrical equipment, appliances & components were virtually unchanged (+5.5% y/y) following five successive m/m increases.

Unfilled orders rose 0.6% (8.9% y/y) in July, the 12th consecutive m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in June. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders climbed 0.9% (6.4% y/y), also up for the 12th straight month, on top of a 1.0% June rise. Backlogs of durable goods grew 0.6% (8.9% y/y) in July, reflecting gains of 1.9% (8.2% y/y) in primary metals, 1.1% (6.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 1.0% (5.9% y/y) in computers & electronic products, partially offset by a 0.2% decline (-2.2% y/y) in furniture & related products.

Inventories advanced 0.4% (2.0% y/y) in July, the ninth successive m/m rise, after a 0.1% uptick in June. Excluding transportation, inventories rose 0.4% (2.1% y/y), up for the sixth consecutive month, following a 0.1% June increase. Durable goods inventories grew 0.4% (2.3% y/y) in July, the 10th straight m/m gain, after a 0.4% rise in June, while nondurable goods inventories rebounded 0.3% (1.4% y/y), the fifth m/m increase in six months, following a 0.3% June decline.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Factory orders +0.9% (+9.9% y/y) in July, first m/m increase since Apr.; 15.2% above the Jan. ’24 low.
- Durable goods orders +1.1%, fourth m/m rise in five mths.; nondurable goods orders +0.7% and shipments +0.8%, seventh m/m gains in eight mths.
- Transportation orders +2.3%, led by a 12.7% jump in nondefense aircraft orders.
- Unfilled orders +0.6%, 12th straight m/m increase.
- Inventories +0.4%, ninth consecutive m/m rise.

U.S. Factory Orders Rebound More Than Expected in July on Strong Nondefense Aircraft Orders

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications rose 0.8% w/w (-9.2% y/y) in the week ending August 28, after declining 1.0% w/w (-11.1% y/y) in the week ending August 21, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house rose 2.2% w/w (-0.6% y/y) in the latest week, after inching down 0.3% w/w (-5.7% y/y) in the August 21 week.  Applications for loan refinancing fell 1.1% w/w (-18.8% y/y) in the August 28 week following a decline of 2.0% w/w (-17.1% y/y) in the August 21 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged up 1bp to 6.98% in the week ending August 28 from 6.97% in the week ending August 21, remaining at levels not seen since July/August 2025. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 4bps to 6.36% in the August 28 week from 6.32% in the August 21 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate inched down1bp to 6.87% in the latest week from 6.88% in the August 21 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped by 12bps to 6.18% in the August 28 week from 6.30% in the August 21 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 41.8% of total applications in the week of August 28 from 42.0% in the week ending August 21. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.0% in the latest week from 7.9% in the August 21 week.

The average size of a mortgage fell 0.9% w/w (-3.2% y/y) to $372,500 in the week ending August 28, after inching up 0.5% w/w (-1.8% y/y) to $376,000 in the week ending August 21. The average size of a purchase loan declined 1.1% w/w to $439,200 in the August 28 week after rising 0.8% w/w to $444,100 in the August 21 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage fell 0.8% w/w to $279,800 in the week ending August 28 after declining 0.1% w/w to $282,000 in the August 21 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase rose and applications for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans edged up 1bp to 6.98%.
- Average loan size fell moderately in the August 28 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose in the August 28 Week

Robert Brusca

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Norwegian industrial production surged in June, rising 7.6% month-to-month after falling by 0.9% month-to-month in May. The gain was lifted by utilities output and by a screamingly strong increase in mining & quarrying output. Output in manufacturing fell by 1%, in sharp contrast.

**A bifurcated economy**: Sequentially overall output is rising by 8.2% year-over-year and at a 32% annual rate over the last three months. Both utilities & mining are showing output up at a fantastically strong pace over the most recent three months, driving overall industrial production up at an extremely strong pace. However, for the same three-month period, manufacturing output has been weak, falling at a 3.7% annual rate while rising only 0.7% over 12 months.

**Moderate to weak manufacturing**: In June, manufacturing output fell by 1%, with consumer goods output falling by 1.5%, intermediate goods output rising by 3.6%, and capital goods output falling by 1.5%. Sequentially, the main manufacturing sectors are all showing tempered rates of increases. The lone exception is intermediate goods where there is an acceleration underway, with output rising 1.3% over 12 months, at a 4% annual rate over six months, and at a 6.5% annual rate over three months. Capital goods output is weak, falling at an 8.6% annual rate over three months. Consumer goods output is falling at a 0.4% annual rate over three months, led by a sharp decline in consumer durables, which are falling at a 29% annual rate over three months. The Norwegian economy is undergoing substantial crosscurrents in manufacturing. Manufacturing is feeling some amount of duress while a boom is going on in utilities and mining & quarrying.

Over this period, inflation in Norway has been extremely well tempered, with the HICP for June falling by 0.4% and the core HICP falling by 0.2%. Headline inflation is decelerating from a 2.6% pace over 12 months to 2.2% over six months, and it is falling at a 0.8% annual rate over three months. Core inflation is even well-behaved, rising 2.8% at an annual rate over 12 months and six months, and then rising at only a 1.6% annual rate over three months. Despite the strong growth in Norwegian output, there's no sign of overheating since the manufacturing sector is weak and the strength is lodged in mining & quarrying and utilities. The inflation environment remains tempered. Norwegian manufacturing output shows that all sectors have recovered beyond their 2020 pre-COVID levels except consumer durables. Durables output is still 12% below the output levels that had prevailed in January 2020; the rest of the sectors are showing, for the most part, reasonable increases in output over that period of time, ranging from moderate to quite strong—strong in the case of utilities and mining. Capital goods output is also up 21% from its January 2020 level. The Norwegian economy is experiencing some mixed patterns.

In the quarter to date, which is now the complete second quarter, overall output grew by 6.4% at an annual rate, with manufacturing growing at a modest 2.6% annual rate. Consumer goods output grew at a 2.6% annual rate, intermediate goods output grew at a 5.4% annual rate, and capital goods output grew at a skinny 0.1% annual rate. In the quarter, inflation rose at a 0.9% pace, with the core HICP up at a 2.8% annual rate. Obviously, as this quarter was ending, conditions have progressed differently as we're now looking at extreme strength in overall industrial production, declines in manufacturing, and moderation of inflation. These trends will have to be watched closely as things are changing in Norway.

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Norway

Norway’s Industrial Production Grows Strongly, but Not in Manufacturing

Michael J. Moran

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The manufacturing index published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) fell 1.0 index point in August, but the reading of 54.6 still suggested a solid performance in the manufacturing sector. (The index can range from 0 to 100, with 50 representing the critical point separating expansion from contraction.) August marked the eighth consecutive month with a reading above 50, and the past two observations were the best of the year thus far (chart, above left). 

The performance of the index this year represents a marked improvement from that in the prior three years. Indeed, the headline index was at 50 or above in only two months during the 2023-25 time span (and barely so at that: 50.5 and 50.0 in January and February 2025).

The new orders component accounted for most of the softening in the headline measure in August, falling 3.0 points to 53.7 (chart, above right). Still, the new orders index remained within the range of  observations so far this year, and the average reading of 55.46 in the past eight months easily exceeds the average of 47.69 in the prior three years. The slowdown in new orders led to a similar-sized drop in the backlog of bookings, as this index fell 3.2 points to 51.8 (this item is not seasonally adjusted). Like new orders, the backlog index remained within the range of observations this year and represented a far better performance than that in the prior three years.

The slowdown in orders had little effect on the pace of production, as this component fell only marginally (down 0.2 point to 58.3) and remained comfortably above results in the first six months of the year (which averaged of 54.07). The employment component registered a slightly larger response, dropping 1.6 points to 51.2. Despite the easing in the employment index, the reading above 50 was encouraging, as this measure was below the expansion/contraction threshold in the first six months of the year. In fact, July and August marked the first above-50 readings since September 2023.

The prices index, which is not a component of the headline measure and is not seasonally adjusted, was unchanged at 71.7. A reading far above the critical point of 50 might seem striking, but this measure often runs high; readings above 80 are not uncommon. In fact, the recent high was 84.6 in April and the index touched 92.1 during the inflationary burst in 2021-22. Much of the pressure, no doubt, reflects the jump in energy prices this year and supply chain disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. Problems with supply chains were evident in the supplier delivery index, which rose 0.4 point to 59.3 (higher values in this measure signal slower delivery times). The latest observation remained below the recent highs of 60.6 in April and May, but those observations were above readings in other recent years, signaling difficulty in securing supplies (charts, below).

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- New orders accounted for most of the easing in the headline index.
- The production index showed a small decline; the employment index posted a moderate drop.
- The prices index was unchanged at an elevated level, but still below recent peaks.

ISM Manufacturing: A Dip in August, but still Signaling Expansion

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The value of construction put in place unexpectedly fell 0.5% m/m in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,157.6 billion following no change in June (-0.1% initially) and May (unrevised), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The July reading was the first m/m fall since April (-1.4%). A flat reading for July had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate was -3.8% in July, the 12th straight y/y decline and the deepest in three months, after -3.1% in June (+0.1% in July 2025), remaining well below a high of 13.1% in November 2023 and a peak of 18.5% in April 2022.

Private construction slid 0.5% (-5.5% y/y) to $1,614.2 billion in July, the fourth consecutive m/m slide and the sixth in seven months, after a 0.1% downtick in June (unrevised). Residential private construction fell 1.3% (-7.3% y/y) to $859.0 billion in July, down for the fourth month running, after a downwardly revised 0.5% decline in June (-0.3% initially). Single-family building dropped 3.2% (-6.5% y/y), the third successive m/m fall, after a 0.1% June downtick; it was 46.0% of the residential private construction. Home improvement building, however, rebounded 0.3% (-10.2% y/y), the first m/m gain since March, following a 0.8% June decline; it was 40.6% of the residential private construction. Multi-family building rose 0.2% (-0.9% y/y), the first m/m rise in four months, after a 0.7% June decrease; it was 13.4% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction grew 0.4% (-3.3% y/y) to $755.2 billion in July, the third consecutive m/m increase, after an upwardly revised 0.4% rise in June (+0.1% initially). The July gain reflected m/m increases in nonresidential private construction categories for office (+3.3%; +21.3% y/y), communication (+0.6%; +3.3% y/y), utilities (+0.5%; +6.5% y/y), lodging (+0.3%; -9.9% y/y), and transportation (+0.3%; -1.6% y/y). Significantly, within the office category, private construction for data center jumped 6.2% (57.2% y/y) in July, the eighth straight m/m gain, on top of a 7.7% advance in June. To the downside, the following nonresidential private construction categories fell m/m in July, including educational (-1.0%; -5.0% y/y), religious (-1.0%; +19.2% y/y), manufacturing (-0.8%; -21.7% y/y), amusement & recreation (-0.6%; +3.4% y/y), health care (-0.4%; -5.3% y/y), and commercial (-0.2%; -4.7% y/y).

The value of public construction was down 0.2% (+1.7% y/y) to $543.4 billion in July, the first m/m decrease since December, after an upwardly revised 0.1% increase in June (0.0% initially), reflecting declines of 0.4% (-5.2% y/y) in residential public construction and 0.2% (+1.9% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. Several nonresidential public construction categories fell m/m in July, led by conservation & development (-1.4%; +26.9% y/y), followed by transportation (-0.8%; +3.3% y/y), health care (-0.7%; +7.9% y/y), educational (-0.2%; +0.4% y/y), office (-0.2%; -7.9% y/y), and amusement & recreation (-0.1%; +2.5% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which accounted for 27.7% of public construction spending, declined 0.2% (+4.5% y/y) following a 0.1% June easing and two successive m/m gains. In contrast, the following public constructions rose m/m in July, led by commercial (+2.5%; -8.7% y/y), followed by water supply (+0.5%; +1.1% y/y), public safety (+0.4%; -8.4% y/y), sewage & waste disposal (+0.4%; -1.1% y/y), and utilities (+0.1%; -3.7% y/y).

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Headline -0.5% m/m in July, first decrease since Apr.; -3.8% y/y, 12th straight y/y drop.
- Residential private construction -1.3% m/m, driven by a 3.2% fall in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction +0.4% m/m, third consecutive monthly gain, boosted by data center office construction.
- Public construction -0.2% m/m, led by a 0.4% decline in residential public building.

U.S. Construction Spending Declines in July, Led by Residential Weakness

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There's a good deal of concern about the development of inflation globally and across individual areas where central banks are making decisions on what to do with policy. In the euro area in August, the headline rate rose by 0.4%, with the core rising by just 0.2%. The three-month inflation rate for headline HICP inflation is 3.3% annualized while the pace for the core is only 2.4% annualized. That's excessive relative to the 2% target but not a particularly strong acceleration for inflation. It's not the kind of number that says to the ECB that it has to raise rates right now.

Sequentially, the headline rate goes from 3.3% to 4.3% to 3.3% over 12 months, six months, and three months on an annualized basis. These are all too high and too uncomfortable, topping 3% and in one case topping 4%. These are the kinds of numbers that require some kind of remedy. However, core inflation posts a very different set of numbers that go from 2.4% to 2.5% to 2.4% over 12 months, six months, and three months, again all annualized. These numbers show inflation skimming too high over the target but not even half a percentage point too high. It’s the kind of thing that a central bank might be willing to continue to tolerate for a while. There's nothing about a 2% target that says 2.4% is an outrageous miss and requires a monetary policy remedy. On the other hand, the fact that that's happening and the headline rate is cruising at a much higher pace over the top of the target may be something that will cause the central bank to say, well, core inflation is too high and I'm also concerned that headline inflation is going to pull it even higher, so maybe it is time to act. These sorts of considerations will keep the market a little bit off balance and wondering what the ECB is going to do.

The Big Four economies in the monetary union all have year-over-year inflation rates for the headline that are excessive compared to the target set for the entire community. France has the lowest 12-month headline pace at 2.7%. Spain has the highest at 4.5%. Over three months, both France and Italy run headline inflation near a pace of 1.5%, while German inflation runs hot at 3.7% and Spanish inflation sizzles at a 7.0% pace.

Once again, however, core is a better-behaved series, at a 12-month pace of 2.9% for Spain, 1.4% for Italy, and with German ex-energy inflation up at a 12-month pace of 2.2%. Over three months, the ex-energy or core paces run at 0.4% for Italy, 2.0% for Germany, and 2.6% for Spain.

**Bottom line**
European inflation is too high. The inflation rate in the community appears to be irregular, just judging by the Big Four countries and all their variation. Core inflation is mostly contained, but the headline is not. Still, core inflation is running mildly hot. It is decision time for the ECB. The safe course would seem to hike rates again to be sure. But nothing here is clear. Stay tuned.

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Europe

EMU Inflation Is Too High but Not Jet-setting

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we examine why the continuing oil shock is placing renewed pressure on several Asian currencies—and why the mechanisms differ significantly across economies. The US–Iran conflict shows no meaningful sign of abating, with further strikes exchanged earlier this week. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted (chart 1), effectively putting a floor beneath crude prices. The resulting increase in energy costs is sustaining inflation risks and worsening the terms of trade for oil-importing economies. This has contributed to the weakness of both the yen and the rupee this year, although energy dependence is only part of the explanation (chart 2). Unfavourable interest-rate differentials remain the principal constraint on the yen, while portfolio flows have amplified the rupee’s decline. Pressure on the Indonesian rupiah, by contrast, owes more to concerns about domestic politics and fiscal credibility. Although broad dollar strength is often blamed for the region’s currency weakness, our trade-weighted nominal dollar index has moved largely sideways.

India’s vulnerability to the oil shock is particularly pronounced. Domestic crude production covers only a small share of consumption, leaving the economy highly exposed to movements in global prices (chart 3). South Korea, Japan and Taiwan face similarly heavy import dependence, while the headline figures for China probably understate its underlying exposure. For India, however, a deteriorating energy bill has coincided with financial-account pressure. Portfolio investors withdrew capital for an extended period after conflict erupted in late February (chart 4). These outflows subsequently reversed after the RBI introduced incentives in June to attract dollar deposits—measures that proved effective enough to be withdrawn ahead of schedule. Nevertheless, the rupee has recovered little of its earlier decline. Indonesia presents a different risk profile. Investor unease centres less on oil-import dependence than on the direction of fiscal policy and the broader political environment. Foreign ownership of rupiah-denominated government bonds has fallen below 13%, even as the outstanding stock of debt has continued to expand (chart 5). President Prabowo’s USD 230bn budget for 2027 targets a smaller deficit (chart 6), but it remains unclear whether this will be sufficient to restore investor confidence.

**The oil situation**
There is little sign of a substantive let-up in the US-Iran situation. Both sides exchanged strikes earlier this week, the first such exchange in about a month. Absent the strikes, the underlying economic reality remains broadly unchanged. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has remained weak (chart 1), leaving an implicit floor under crude oil prices. Upside inflation risks stemming from energy therefore remain alive, and with them the implications for monetary policy. Beyond inflation, this protracted bout of elevated oil prices continues to add to the hefty bills faced by net energy importers, in the region and well beyond it.

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**Currencies**
Among other drivers, the exposure of Japan and India to oil imports has weighed on their currencies this year. The surge in oil prices has raised their energy bills sharply. Other factors are also at play, with rate differentials weighing on the yen and capital flows compounding rupee weakness. The latter is a topic we revisit later in this Letter. Other Asian currencies have also shown significant weakness this year, though energy is not the main driver of their depreciation. The Indonesian rupiah has fallen sharply (chart 2), largely on fiscal concerns as the government pursues a highly expansionary fiscal policy. That has raised worries about fiscal sustainability, among other woes, which we also return to later. Dollar strength has been frequently cited as an additional driver of this Asian currency weakness. Yet the broadly sideways pattern of our trade-weighted nominal dollar index suggests otherwise.

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**India**
Focusing more on India, chart 3 shows how dependent the country is on imported petroleum for its consumption needs. Compared with oil producers in Asia such as Malaysia, India's production is minuscule as a proportion of its consumption. That implies an extremely high dependence on imported sources. It leaves India almost wholly exposed to fluctuations in global oil prices, apart from supply supplements drawn from oil reserves. Several other Asian economies fall into the same bucket, namely South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Their production is slightly higher relative to consumption for petroleum and other liquids, but still very low. For other Asian economies such as China, the statistic does not tell the whole story, since much of China's refined production also relies on imported crude.

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India's hefty imported energy bill aside, another drag on the rupee came from persistent capital outflows earlier in the year. These immediately followed the initial outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in late February. As shown in chart 4, India faced protracted outflows from foreign institutional and portfolio investors during that early period. Those outflows were subsequently reversed following concerted measures by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to spur inflows. Specifically, the central bank introduced a raft of measures in June to boost dollar inflows. These allowed banks to offer attractive rates on FX deposits, with the RBI subsidising hedging costs. They have apparently been so successful in attracting inflows that the central bank has decided to shut them down early. That said, the rupee has not yet regained the ground it lost this year, despite the surge in inflows.

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**Indonesia**
Moving to Indonesia, the driver landscape behind the year's persistent rupiah weakness looks rather different. It is characterised more by investor perceptions of the country's political and fiscal state than by the energy-driven narrative facing India. Chart 5 shows one symptom of this loss of standing among foreign investors. The share of non-resident ownership of tradable rupiah government bonds has extended its mild decline through the year, falling to just under 13%. That decline reflects broadly unchanged non-resident holdings against a total stock of government securities that has continued to grow. Driving that expansion in the debt stock, and possibly further expansion ahead, are the fiscal-intensive measures of the current government, including its Free Nutritious Meals programme. Other measures, notably energy subsidies, have also bitten into the fiscal spend. All in, these have raised concerns about the country's future fiscal position, weighing on the rupiah in turn.

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On that note, Indonesia's President Prabowo has unveiled a USD 230bn "expansive" budget for 2027. This came earlier last month, perhaps in an attempt to allay the above-mentioned investor concerns about fiscal sustainability. The fiscal deficit is set at 2.4% of GDP, the narrowest in three years. It remains to be seen whether investor concerns will be substantially allayed by the news. Nor is it clear whether the rupiah could recover meaningfully on the back of these announced measures. Also still lacking is the full scale of the ongoing Free Nutritious Meals programme, which has already been beset by issues and scaled back. A further point to watch is whether expectations of Indonesia's fiscal trajectory shift substantially. That applies to investors and to organisations such as the IMF, in its upcoming fiscal outlook publication.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Lingering Unease

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Growth among the eleven reporting EMU countries continues to be mixed. Growth in EMU is stable enough but modest at 0.5% to 1.2% over four quarters when assessed over the last four quarters. Quarterly results are more volatile, of course. Median annual growth is 1.3% to 2.1%.

**Mixed Result on Growth**
In Q2, five of these eleven countries showed lower growth based on annualized quarter changes, while three showed weaker growth quarter-to-quarter based on four-quarter rates of growth. Belgium, Denmark, and France were weaker based on four-quarter growth rates. Growth in Spain was unchanged at 2.7%. Danish growth slowed to 4.6% from 6.1%.

**Assessing Rates of Growth**
The change in growth rate assessment is useful but never quite definitive, as you can see from the still-strong, although slower, Danish pace of growth. 4.6% is less than 6.1%, but it is still quite strong, hardly a problem. Similarly, Ireland shows better growth, but that is an ‘improvement’ to -5.6% from -13.2%, an improvement and a sharp one, but still chillingly weak. Of course, Ireland, with a preponderance of multinational corporations headquartered there, shows some accounting fluctuations that are not that representative of a real macroeconomic impact on the Irish economy but can have a big impact on reported GDP. Ireland logs the only negative growth rate in the monetary union over four quarters, with Belgium the next weakest at 0.5%, and Germany and Italy at 1%.

**The Big Four Economies**
The four largest EMU countries with GDP pooled have run an annual growth that has been quite steady around the 1% mark (0.9% to 1.1%). The rest of the EMU has had a more volatile growth rate. Pooling the remaining countries’ GDP performance yields growth rates over fourth quarters ranging from -0.9% to +2.1% over the last four quarters.

**Within EMU**
The table chronicles growth rates for 11 EMU members plus the United Kingdom, the United States, and Japan. Among these 14 countries, year-over-year growth rates on data back to 1998 show only five countries with GDP growth rates ranking over four quarters above 50%; rankings above 50% put them above their median for that period. Those five countries are Spain, Finland, Italy, Portugal, and Denmark. While Spain and Italy have rankings above their medians for the period, German growth ranks at only 45.7%, and French growth is quite weak at a 17.4 percentile standing, marking a split in performance among the Big Four economies.

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German GDP trends higher, U.K. waffles, and French trends continue to deflate.

**Other Considerations**
Growth in the EMU is uneven across the community, and inflation has begun to rise with Germany recently showing an adverse uptick to 2.9% from 2.8%. Conditions in the Middle East regarding the Strait of Hormuz are impacting growth, inflation, and the outlook; conditions are still touch and go. While it is still August, colder weather is coming and LNG supplies are going to be very important for winter in Europe. Weather has been a factor with drought conditions again sapping many important European rivers of their lifeblood flow, causing ships and barges to either run with lighter loads or not at all. In a number of cases, European nuclear facilities were run at a slower pace; some were shut completely because river flows were so low and river temperatures were too high to permit cooling at full capacity.

Between nature and geopolitics, conditions remain uneven and that extends to the outlook. International relations are strained as well, and Russia has been creating mischief and trying to unnerve NATO members with threats of broadening the war in Ukraine. All in all, it is a difficult picture and one of considerable instability on offer. The shake-out in the Middle East will be important for inflation and the evolution of energy prices and more. The outlook is in flux.

EMU GDP in Member Countries: Some Minor Revisions

Sandy Batten

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After two consecutive months of disappointingly weak employment reports, the August report was much stronger than expected. Nonfarm payrolls increased 162,000 with meaningful upward revisions to both June and July, according to today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected an increase of 52,000. The 23,000 decline previously reported for July was revised up to a 21,000 **increase** while the 20,000 increase previously reported for June was revised up to a 31,000 gain. The average gain over the past three months rebounded to 71,000 from 38,000 in July while the average increase over the past six months jumped to 106,000 from 54,000 in July. Both are on a modest uptrend and remain significantly stronger than in the second half of last year.

Private-sector payrolls also rose much more than expected in August after having disappointed in both June and July. They increased 127,000 against an expected increase of 46,000 with upward revisions to both June and July totaling 48,000. Government employment rebounded in August, increasing 35,000 after falling 50,000 in July. The swing from July to August was due to local government education jobs, which fell 58,000 in July but jumped 42,000 in August. It is usually difficult to seasonally adjust education jobs in the summer, but this seemed to be even more difficult this year. The July collapse in education jobs was the largest fall since September 2020 while the August rebound was the largest increase since July 2022.

The stronger-than-expected payroll report was echoed by a very strong report from the **household survey**. The civilian labor force jumped 683,000, the largest population-adjusted monthly increase since October 2020. The labor force had declined in four of the preceding five months. Employment increased 569,000 in August, again after having declined in four of the previous five months. The August rise was the largest population-adjusted monthly gain since November 2023. The number of unemployed increased 115,000 in August, its first increase in four months while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, the lowest reading since June 2025. The labor force participation rate rebounded to 61.6 in August from 61.4 in July.

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In the **establishment survey**, private-sector goods-producing jobs increased a strong 41,000 in August, the largest monthly gain since January, on top of an upwardly revised 29,000 in July. Construction jobs rose 22,000 in August, the sixth consecutive monthly increase, while manufacturing jobs increased 16,000 in August, the third consecutive monthly gain and the largest since November 2023. Private-sector service-producing jobs rose 86,000 in August following an upwardly revised 42,000 gain in July (previously +5,000). The August increase in service-producing jobs was led by a surprising 62,000 increase in leisure and hospitality jobs following monthly declines in both June and July. The World Cup had been widely expected to generate jobs but leisure jobs fell in both June and July. So, the August rebound was surprising and accounted for nearly ¾ of the total increase in service-producing jobs. Healthcare and social assistance added 28,000 jobs in August while information jobs fell 23,000, the fourth monthly decline in the past five months, and financial activities jobs declined 11,000, the fifth monthly decline in the past six months. The declines in information and financial jobs may be related to AI.

The monthly change in private-sector average hourly earnings picked up a bit in August, rising 0.3% m/m versus an upwardly revised 0.2% monthly gain in July. The 0.3% monthly increase was in line with market expectations. However, the y/y rate continued to trend down with the y/y rate sliding to 3.1% in August, the lowest rate since May 2021, from 3.2% y/y in July. Wages in private service-producing firms rose 0.3% m/m in August versus 0.1% m/m in July but the y/y rate slowed to 2.9% from 3.0% in July. Goods-producing wages rose 0.2% m/m (4.0% y/y) in August, down slightly from a 0.3% monthly gain in July.

The breadth of private job growth widened markedly in August from July with the one-month diffusion index jumping to 55.6, its highest reading since December 2024, from 52.8 in July. This was well above the key 50 level and indicates that more industries were adding jobs than losing them. Moreover, the six-month diffusion index rose to 55.8 in August, its highest reading since January 2024.

The workweek lengthened to 34.4 hours in August, the longest week since March 2024, from 34.3 hours in July. The longer workweek and the jump in employment combined to pushed up aggregate weekly hours index by 0.3% m/m, the largest monthly gain since April.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000 in August with upward revisions to both June and July.
- The market consensus looked for a 52,000 increase.
- The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, the lowest rate since June 2025.
- In the household survey, employment jumped 569,000, its largest population-adjusted increase since November 2023.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m, but the y/y rate continued to trend down, sliding to 3.1%, the lowest since May 2021.

U.S. Payroll Employment Surged in August

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