Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, W
indows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

Tom Moeller

250312F1.jpg

250312G1.jpg

The U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $1.147 trillion for the first five months of FY 2025 in contrast to a $828.1 billion deficit for the first five months of FY’24. For February alone, the government ran a budget deficit of $307.0 billion, which compared to a deficit of $296.3 billion twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $287.0 billion deficit in February.

Overall revenues in the first five months of FY’25 increased 2.0% y/y compared to a 7.0% y/y rise in the first five months of last year. Individual income tax receipts rose 3.3% y/y compared to last year’s 5.6% gain. The level of corporate tax receipts fell 17.6% y/y so far this year after a 25.8% y/y rise in the first five months of FY’24. Social insurance revenues increased 3.8% y/y after a 5.7% y/y rise early in FY’24 and excise taxes rose 13.4% y/y so far in FY’25 compared to an 8.8% gain early last year. Customs duties rose 12.0% y/y in the first five months of FY’25 after a 9.8% decline in the first five months of last fiscal year.

Federal government outlays surged 13.2% y/y so far in FY’25 versus a 9.2% rise early in FY’24. Defense spending rose 9.9% y/y versus a 12.0% y/y rise in the first five months of last fiscal year. Social Security outlays rose 6.4% y/y in the first five months of FY’25 versus a 9.7% gain last year. Interest payments rose 13.1% y/y so far in FY’25 after a 49.3% rise one year earlier. Health program spending rose 8.0% y/y after increasing 1.3% early in FY’24 while Medicare payments surged 36.6% y/y versus an 11.9% rise last year. Income security outlays rose 18.4% y/y early this year compared to a 23.0% y/y decline in the first five months of FY’24.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250312H1.jpg

250312I1.jpg

- Federal receipt growth improves.
- Outlay growth surges.


U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens in FY 2025

Winnie Tapasanun

250312A9.jpg

250312B9.jpg

Mortgage applications rose 11.2% w/w (33.6% y/y) in the week ending March 7 following a 20.4% jump in the week ending February 28 and two consecutive weekly declines, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the second successive weekly rise to the index level of 269.3, the highest since the October 4 week. Applications for loans to purchase a house increased 7.0% (4.7% y/y) in the March 7 week after a 9.1% rise in the February 28 week and five straight w/w decreases. Applications for loan refinancing gained 16.2% (89.7% y/y) in the March 7 week following a 37.0% surge in the previous week and two consecutive weekly drops.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 6bps to 6.85% in the week ending March 7 after declining to 6.91% in the week ending February 28, posting the sixth straight w/w fall and the lowest since the October 18 week; it was up from a low of 6.29% in the September 20 week but down from a high of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell 7bps to 6.21% in the March 7 week, the lowest since the October 18 week, from 6.28% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the September 20 week but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans decreased 15bps to 6.82% in the March 7 week, the lowest since the October 4 week, from 6.97% in the prior week; it was up from a low of 6.57% in the September 13 week but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. By contrast, the rate on a 5-year ARM rose 6bps to 6.07% in the March 7 week, the first w/w rise since the February 3 week, from 6.01% in the previous week; it was above a low of 5.84% in the September 13 week but down from a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 45.6% of total applications in the week ending March 7 from 43.8% in the week ending February 28, registering the third successive w/w rise and the highest since the December 13 week; however, that was down from a peak of 55.7% in the September 20 week. Meanwhile, the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity jumped to 7.2% in the March 7 week, the highest since the August 9 week, from 5.8% in the prior week; it was up from its recent low of 4.7% in the January 3 week but below a high of 10.7% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The average size of a mortgage loan advanced 5.1% w/w (7.4% y/y) to $419,700 in the March 7 week, the highest on record, after a 3.7% rise to $399,200 in the February 28 week. The average size of a purchase loan rose 2.8% (3.7% y/y) to $460,800 in the March 7 week, also the highest on record, after a 1.6% increase to $448,300 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage gained 10.2% (35.0% y/y) to $370,600 in the March 7 week, the highest since the September 27 week, on top of a 13.4% jump to $336,200 in the previous week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications increase 7.0% w/w; refinancing loan applications gain 16.2% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans declines to a still-elevated 6.85%.
- Average loan size rises to a record high.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise 11.2% in the March 7 Week

Robert Brusca

250312E.jpg

**The Cabinet Office:**
**General business conditions**
Japan's Cabinet Office survey of general business conditions shows a diffusion reading of +2 in the first quarter of 2025 compared to a net of +5.7 last quarter. This is the reading for all big companies. The reading for large manufacturers slipped to -2.4 from +6.3, a much sharper drop. Unfortunately, manufacturing is often looked upon as the harbinger for future developments in the economy. Non-manufacturers show their reading slip as well, to +4.1 from +5.4 in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

**Smaller company results-** Medium-sized manufacturing companies, posted a decline in the fourth quarter and a bigger decline than this first quarter, logging a reading of -1.5 at the end of last year and the reading of -6.9 in the current quarter. Small manufacturing companies continue to post negative results, and they also saw substantial slippage, falling from a -12.4 reading in the fourth quarter to a -18.3 reading in the first quarter of 2025.

**Rankings**
In the table, I include rank standings for these readings on data that are back to 2004, an approximate 20-year horizon. The overall reading for large companies has a 54.8 percentile standing, which is above its historic median for that timeline. However, large manufacturing companies have a standing only at their 38.1 percentile. Medium-sized manufacturers have a reading at their 34.9 percentile, not too different from large manufacturing enterprises. Small manufacturers, despite their much-weaker negative reading in the first quarter, show a queue percentile standing in their 44.6 percentile. They chronically pose weaker numbers than their larger counterparts; therefore, when ranked relative to their own history, their current weaker diffusion readings don't seem to be quite as weak on a ranking basis. However, none of this puts too much positive spin on the data for the quarter.

**General domestic conditions**
The readings for general business conditions show even a higher percentage of readings that are below their 50th percentile which puts them below their median ranking. The reading for all large companies decreased to 3.1 in the first quarter of 2025 from 4.2 at the end of last year. Large manufacturers slipped from +2 at the end of the year to -1.3 in the current quarter; medium-sized manufacturers slipped to -8.7 in the current quarter from -3.8 in the fourth quarter of last year while small manufacturers slipped to -22.8 from -20.9. The standings show the reading for all big companies at a 45.8 percentile standing; the standing for large manufacturers at 33.7 percentile; the standing for medium-sized manufacturers had a 34.1 percentile standing and for small manufacturers there is a 43.9 percentile standing.

**Number of employees**
The readings for the number of employees conversely improved for large companies, moving to 28.3 in the first quarter of 2025 from 27.4 at the end of the year; for large manufacturers there is an improvement as well to 20 in 2025-Q1 from 19 in the fourth quarter. Medium-sized manufacturers see slight slippage to 32.7 from 33.3 at the end of the year, and small manufacturers see a slippage as well to 21.7 from 24.4 at the end of the year. Large companies and large manufacturers are improving while the smaller firms are falling behind. However, there's a proliferation of rankings for these results in the 90th percentile in fact, in the high 90th percentiles. For all big companies, there's a 98-percentile standing, the same as for large manufacturers. Medium-sized manufacturing companies have an 89.3 percentile standing and small manufacturers have a 79.8 percentile standing. None of these are weak or disappointing readings.

**Quarters ahead...**
Beyond the current quarter, there are also readings in the table for the next quarter and the second quarter ahead. I provide only rankings for these readings and what we see is that for the quarter ahead conditions for large firms and large manufacturers are generally weakening and weakening significantly comparing the queue percentile standings in the current quarter to the standings for the next quarter ahead. However, for the second quarter ahead, there's generally a bounce back from the weakness in the quarter ahead, but that bounce back still does not take the ranking readings back to the levels achieved in the first quarter. For the most part, this is not particularly impressive result. The cabinet report retains a downcast view of the futures as well as a weak – and weakening- assessment of current economic performance. This deteriorated view is not as widespread as it might have been since it seems to have bypassed at least a piece of the job market where readings remain firm to strong in historic comparison.

250312.jpg

Japan

Japan’s Cabinet Office Survey Edges Lower in 2025-Q1

250311X.jpg

250311Y.jpg

The number of job openings increased 232,000 (-8.6% y/y) to 7.74 million during January after declining 523,000 in December, revised from 556,000, and rising 416,000 in November, revised from 317,000, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The number of job openings has been trending downward since the peak of 12.134 million reached in March 2022. The job openings rate edged up to 4.6% from an unrevised 4.5% in December. The rate remains well below a high of 7.4% in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings. Data in this report was revised back to January 2020.

Private sector openings rose 226,000 (-9.5% y/y) in January to 6.86 million after declining 528,000 in December, revised from -548,000. The January increase reflected a 143,000 rise (15.9% y/y) in retail trade and a 58,000 increase (-21.7% y/y) in health care & social assistance. Construction (-42.0% y/y) and manufacturing (-16.9% y/y) openings both rose 31,000. Offsetting these gains, professional & business service openings declined 122,000 (-13.9% y/y) while leisure & hospitality job openings fell 46,000 (+1.5% y/y). Government job openings rose 6,000 (-1.2% y/y). The private sector job openings rate edged up to 4.8% in January from 4.7% in December. It remained below 5.4% twelve months earlier and 7.9% at its peak in March 2022.

Total hiring rose 19,000 (-3.2% y/y) to 5.393 million during January after a 67,000 December increase, revised from 89,000, following a 43,000 drop in November. Private sector hiring rose 18,000 (-3.2% y/y) after a 37,000 December increase and a 26,000 November fall. Professional & business services hiring rose 36,000 (-6.4% y/y) while retail trade jobs rose 26,000 (12.0% y/y). Factory sector hiring increased 32,000 (-13.5% y/y) while the number of construction jobs rose 26,000 (-5.1% y/y). Leisure & hospitality employment fell 50,000 (-12.1% y/y). Government hiring rose 2,000 (-3.6% y/y).

Total job separations rose 170,000 (-3.3% y/y) to 5.252 million in January after falling 5,000 in December, and sliding 198,000 in November. Quits rose 171,000 (-2.6% y/y) after rising 63,000 in December. Construction sector jumped 53,000 (21.2% y/y), professional & business services quits rose 30,000 (18.7% y/y) while leisure & hospitality gained 7,000 (-20.9% y/y). Layoffs & discharges declined 34,000 (-3.4% y/y), the fifth decline in the last six months. Other separations rose 32,000 (-8.9% y/y). Private layoffs fell 13,000 (-3.7% y/y) in January, reflecting a 29,000 decrease (+14.8% y/y) in retail trade. Leisure & hospitality layoffs declined 33,000 (+5.0% y/y). This was offset by a 62,000 rise (-23.7% y/y) in professional & business services layoffs. Layoffs in the government sector fell 21,000 (+4.2% y/y).

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Job openings rise during January 	following a lessened December decline.
- Increase is concentrated in retail trade & financial industries.
- Hiring improves but separations increase.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings & Hiring Improve in January

250311T36.jpg

250311U36.jpg

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 100.7 in February, the lowest level since October, after a 2.3-point drop to 102.8 in January, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. This was the fourth straight month that the index was above the 51-year average of 98. The index was down from its recent peak of 105.1 in December but up from its recent low of 88.5 in March 2024 and 89.4 in February 2024. Seven of the 10 index components fell and three increased. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index rose to 104 in February on top of a 14-point jump to 100 in January, registering the second highest reading on record. The index, while down from its record high of 110 in October, was well above its recent low of 65 in November 2023.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months remained positive for the fourth consecutive month in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve fell to 37% in February, the lowest level since November, after a 5-point drop to 47% in January; however, having remained significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales dropped to a net 14% in February after a 2-point decline to 20% in January, posting the fourth successive positive reading and the lowest since November. The latest figure was up from a low of -21% in May 2023 and a low of -29% in July 2022. A net -12% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up from -14% in January and registering the highest reading since June 2024. The latest result, however, was below the most recent positive reading of 1% in May 2022 and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to make capital outlays dipped to 19% in February, the lowest level since September, following a seven-point decline to 20% in January. These numbers were down from its recent high of 28% in November and a high of 31% in October 2021. Plans to expand the business fell to 12% in February, the lowest reading since October, after a three-point decline to 17% in January; the latest figure was down from its most recent high of  20% in December but up from a low of 2% in March 2023. Meanwhile, expected credit conditions edged up to -3% in February after a two-point decline to -4% in January; these readings were above a low of -11% in November 2023.

On the labor front, forty-eight percent of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in February, slightly up from 47% in January. These numbers were below a high of 57% in September 2023, a high of 61% in May 2022, and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 15% planned to increase employment in February, down from 18% in January; it was below a high of 26% in May 2022 and a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 38% reported positions not able to be filled in February, up from 35% in January and the highest reading since August; these figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The figure inched up to -24% in February, still a poor reading, following a one-point increase to -25% in January. These readings were up from a low of -37% in August; nevertheless, having remained below a high of -18% in March 2023 and a high of -5% in June 2021.

On the pricing front, inflation pressures, while trending down, remained at an inflationary level. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices jumped 10 points to 32% in February after a two-point decline to 22% in January, posting the biggest m/m increase since April 2021 and the highest reading since May 2023. These numbers were up from 21% in February 2024 but well below a high of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices rose to 29% in February, the highest reading since March 2024, following a two-point decline to 26% in January; these figures were below a high of 33% in March 2024 and a high of 52% in March 2022.

Wage inflation remained relatively high in the February survey. A net 33% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, unchanged from 33% reported in the January survey and registering the highest reading since August. It was down from a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 18% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, down from 20% reported in January and the lowest reading since July 2024; these numbers were below a high of 28% in November, a high of 30% in November 2023, and a high of 32% in October 2022.

Inflation continued to be a problem facing small businesses, as reported by 16% of NFIB members in February. The February figure was down from 18% in January and a peak of 37% in July 2022. However, the quality of labor (19% in February vs. 18% in January) had taken over as the single most important problem facing small businesses. Other concerns (in February vs. January) included taxes (16% vs. 17%), the cost of labor (12% vs. 9%), poor sales (9% vs. 9%), insurance cost/availability (7% vs. 7%), competition from large businesses (7% vs. 5%), and government requirements (6% vs. 10%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

250311V36.jpg

250311W36.jpg

- Feb. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index down 2.1 pts. to 100.7; second consecutive m/m decline following four straight m/m rises.
- Uncertainty Index up 4 pts. to 104, the second highest reading.
- Expectations for economy down 10 pts. to 37%, the lowest since November.
- Expected real sales down 6 pts. to 14%, a three-month low.
- Net percent of firms raising avg. selling prices up 10 pts. to 32%, the biggest m/m increase since Apr. ’21 and the highest reading since May '23.
- Quality of labor (19%) and inflation (16%) are top business concerns.

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Recedes to a Four-Month Low in February Amid Uncertainty

250311C1.jpg

250311D1.jpg

Retail gasoline prices for all grades slipped to an average $3.20 per gallon (-8.4% y/y) last week after falling to $3.21 in the week ending March 3. Prices remained up from a low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Its all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel fell to $3.58 per gallon (-10.5% y/y) in the week of March 10 from $3.64 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $67.27 per barrel (-15.0% y/y) in the week ended March 7, after falling to $69.67 per barrel in the prior week. Prices remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $66.03 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil of $71.93 per barrel (-16.0% y/y) slumped in the week of March 7 compared to $74.25 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $71.08 per barrel.

Natural gas prices recovered last week to an average $4.24 per mmbtu (173.5% y/y) in the week ended March 7 after plunging to $3.89/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $4.58 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand rose 0.9% y/y in the four weeks ending February 28 following a 0.1% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products rose 3.4% y/y in the four weeks ending February 28 after a 4.2% y/y rise in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 4.9% y/y in the four weeks ending February 28 after a 5.6% y/y increase in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories rose 3.0% y/y in the week ending February 28 after a 1.7% y/y rise in the week ending February 21. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 16.3% y/y in the week of February 28, after an 18.0% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 2.4% y/y in the week of February 28 after a 2.2% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell to 28.9 days in the week of February 28. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8. The supply of crude oil rose to 28.0 days in the week of February 28 from 27.8 days in the prior week, up from 24.6 days in the week of January 10 but remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices ease.
- Crude oil prices decline.
- Natural gas costs rebound.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week

250311E.jpg

Japan's GDP growth has picked up rising by 2.2% in the fourth quarter at an annual rate and rising 1.2% in the fourth quarter over the 4th quarter of one year ago. The 1.2% year-over-year growth rate in GDP is the strongest since the second quarter of 2023, six quarters ago. The chart showed that both measures- both the year-over-year and the annualized quarter-to-quarter results, for Japan's GDP are signaling an ongoing revival in growth after a more difficult period from mid-2023 to early-2024.

**Consumption-** Private consumption spending in Japan rose by only 0.1% quarter-to-quarter but it's rising by 1.1% year-over-year; the year-over-year gain was last stronger in the first quarter of 2023. Public consumption in Japan rose by 1.6% at an annualized quarter-to-quarter rate, at almost the same pace, at 1.7% in year-over-year terms. The 1.7% year-over-year pace is strong, the strongest since the first quarter of 2022, again, in terms of year-over-year public sector consumption spending.

**Fixed capital-** Gross fixed capital formation rose by 0.9% in the quarter at an annual rate, reversing a decline of the same magnitude one quarter ago. Capital spending generally has been higher than this in the preceding quarters.

**Plant & Equipment-** Spending on plant & equipment rose by 2.3% annualized in the quarter; its rise year-over-year in the fourth quarter is 1.2%. That 1.2% rise is one of the weaker increases recently. This is the weakest result in the last four-quarters in plant and equipment spending. While consumption seems to have come online, fixed investment and plant & equipment capital spending definitely are lagging behind the consumer sector.

**Housing-** Spending on housing fell by 0.8% at an annual rate in the fourth quarter compared to 1.8% annual rate gain in the third quarter. The Q4 year-over-year change in housing spending is -1.2%; for this particular series there are negative year-over-year numbers for the last four-quarters. However, the -1.2% year-over-year rate on the fourth quarter of 2024 is the ‘least weak’ of the last four quarters in terms of year-on-year growth rates, so there may be some signal of progress buried in these numbers on housing.

**International Sector-** The quarter-to-quarter change in Japan's real net export numbers move into positive territory in the fourth quarter after four previous quarters of negative numbers. Turning to year-over-year changes in Japanese net exports, they remain negative in the fourth quarter, the third consecutive negative year-over-year change in a row by quarter. However, it's the smallest negative change of the last three quarters so this period of net export deterioration may be coming to a close, which is what the strong quarter-to-quarter reading implies. Looked at separately, export growth has been slowing down; the annualized quarterly rate had logged a -15.5% annual rate in the first quarter of 2024 accelerated to 6.8% at an annualized quarterly rate in Q2, softened to a 6.1% annual rate gain in Q3 and now, in the fourth quarter, it logs an even weaker 4.1% annualized rate quarter-to-quarter. The year-over-year export growth figures turn negative in the fourth quarter to -0.1% and this is the first negative growth rate for exports year-over-year since the fourth quarter of 2020. On the import side, imports fall by 8.3% at an annual rate quarter-to-quarter after rising 8.1% at an annualized rate in the third quarter. Imports also fall by 0.1% year-over-year at end 2024; the last time import numbers were negative year-over-year was in the first quarter of 2024. So, this is not such a watershed for weakness. But weakness in imports suggests that GDP may not be doing as well as the aggregate number suggests because we'd expect with strong GDP to have stronger imports in place.

**Summing up-** In fact, the weak import numbers are in some way also inconsistent with domestic demand. Year-over-year domestic demand rises by 1.1%, a bit weaker than it posted in the third quarter of 2024, but still the number that is quite solid by recent experience. I’d expect to see either Japan’s imports pick up, or GDP to cool. Since GDP seems to be in an early acceleration phase, Japan is probably going to see imports step up.

250311.jpg

Japan’s GDP Posts Solid Results

250310A12.jpg

250310D12.jpg

The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose 0.6% (0.4% y/y) during the four weeks ended March 7, 2025, adding to gains early in the year. Weakness during the latest two weeks, however, pulled the index to the lowest level since early February.

Prices in the Metals group led the increase and rose 3.5% (9.4% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Tin prices increased 5.4% (18.4% y/y) while copper scrap costs rose 5.1% in four weeks (12.0% y/y). The cost of lead climbed 3.1% (-3.0% y/y) and zinc prices increased 3.1% (16.3% y/y) in four weeks. Steel scrap costs rose 2.9% (-3.1% y/y) and aluminum costs moved up 1.5% (21.0% y/y) in four weeks.

Prices in the Miscellaneous group increased 1.2% during the last four weeks and rose 4.3% y/y. Framing lumber prices jumped 11.1% over the last four weeks and increased 12.8% y/y. Offsetting this rise, natural rubber prices declined 2.6% (+4.9% y/y) in four weeks. Hide prices held steady over the same period (+7.8% y/y).

Offsetting these gains, prices in the Crude Oil & Benzene group declined 3.7% (-12.6% y/y) in the latest four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil slumped 5.8% to $67.81 per barrel and was 14.1% lower y/y. The cost of the petro-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, fell 7.5% (-33.1% y/y) in the last four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index rose 1.0% (1.3% y/y).

Textile group prices weakened 0.6% (-4.9% y/y) in the latest four weeks. Burlap costs fell 2.2% (+11.7% y/y) in four weeks and the cost of cotton fell 2.0% (-32.5% y/y).

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

250310C12.jpg

250310B12.jpg

- Metals prices lead the increase.
- Lumber prices strengthen.
- Crude oil prices decline sharply.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Index Edges Higher

large_250314F0.jpg

medium_250314F0.jpg

small_250314F0.jpg

thumbnail_250314F0.jpg

250314F0.jpg

large_250314G0.jpg

medium_250314G0.jpg

small_250314G0.jpg

thumbnail_250314G0.jpg

250314G0.jpg

The National Association of Realtors' Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index (HAI) eased 0.2% (-3.6% y/y) in January to 100.7 after rising 1.5% to 100.9 in December and falling 2.9% in November to 99.4. The level of home affordability has risen 12.0% from its low of 89.9 in October 2023. It remains 43.8% below the high of 179.2 in April 2020.

The slip in affordability in January reflected a 1.6% drop (+5.0% y/y) in the median price of an existing single-family home to $402,000 which was offset by a rise in mortgage rates to 7.04% from 6.80% in December. The price decline was the sixth in the last seven months from the record $432,900 in June. The rise in mortgage rates compared to a September low of 6.26% and a 7.14% high during May. It remained increased from a December 2020 low of 2.73%. These changes raised the principal & interest payment by 0.8% (8.4% y/y) to $2,148 per month. That was well above the most recent low of $984 in February 2020. Monthly mortgage payments averaged a steady 24.8% of income during January. They remained up from a low of 14.0% in April 2020.

The rise in housing costs in January was accompanied by improvement in median family income. It increased 0.7% (4.5% y/y) to a record $103,850 after rising 0.3% in December and 0.4% in November.

Housing affordability was mixed m/m across the country in January. The index rose 0.4% (-5.9% y/y) to 134.2 in the Midwest. It remains the most affordable region of the country. In the South, the index eased 0.6% (-2.5% y/y) to 103.3 and the affordability index in the Northeast fell 1.9% (-8.7% y/y) to 89.9. In the West, where homes are the least affordable, the index weakened 1.8% (-5.5% y/y) to 69.8 in January.

The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) equals 100 when a median-income borrower qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home. The HAI had exceeded 100 in each month since July 1990 and reached its all-time high of 213.3 in January 2013; since then, it fell below 100 for the first time in June 2022 (98.8).

Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver’s **REALTOR** database. Median home sales prices are also available in **USECON**. Higher frequency interest rate data are found in **SURVEYS**, **WEEKLY**, and **DAILY**.

large_250314H0.jpg

medium_250314H0.jpg

small_250314H0.jpg

thumbnail_250314H0.jpg

250314H0.jpg

large_250314I0.jpg

medium_250314I0.jpg

small_250314I0.jpg

thumbnail_250314I0.jpg

250314I0.jpg

- Home prices ease but mortgage rates rise.
- Median income strengthens.
- Affordability weakens in most of country.

U.S. Housing Affordability Is Little Changed in January

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

#### Academic Data Scope
National Account (GDP), Production, Labour Market, Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Policy & International Trade. High-frequency data covering financial variables and drivers of the real economy, and key ESG environmental indicators. Plus, time series from the IMF on 190+ countries to aid cross comparison.

University

#### Move Back through Time
Terabytes of time series from primary sourced databases available in monthly snapshots as early as 2000, in weekly snapshots as early as 2007 or the point of inception of the database. 

#### True DLX Database Snapshots
The data are true snapshots of DLX databases unrevised from the point in time of update.  Easily view our archive data in HaverView with thousands of monthly archives currently available for over 60 unique databases. 

Carol Stone, CBE

250314F2.jpg

250314G2.jpg

Yesterday, March 13, the Federal Reserve published the Financial Accounts for Q4 2024. They show, among numerous other things, that domestic nonfinancial participants in the U.S. economy had borrowings that represented 11.4% of GDP during Q4. This is down moderately from 12.3% in Q3 and produced an amount for the whole year of 2024 of 11.9% of GDP. The quarterly amounts cited here are at seasonally adjusted annual rates.

In Q4, the largest borrowing sector was the federal government, which used $2,602.9 billion, or 8.8% of GDP, up from $2,261 billion in Q3, or 7.7% of GDP.  Households borrowed $624.3 billion or 2.1% of GDP; this amount included $294.3 billion of home mortgages and $133.1 billion of consumer credit.

Nonfinancial business corporations actually paid down debt of $64.1 billion in Q4, or 0.2% of GDP. In Q1 of 2024, businesses had borrowed $698.2 billion and for the whole year, they borrowed $436.6 billion or 1.5% of GDP. State and local governments paid down $46.0 billion in Q4; for the whole year they did use $97.8 billion or 0.3% of GDP.

In addition to domestic borrowers, the foreign sector borrowed $341.3 billion in Q4, or 1.1% of GDP and up from $196.7 billion in Q3.  For all of 2024, foreign participants used $345.5 billion, or 1.2% of GDP.

The Financial Accounts data are in Haver's **FFUNDS** database. The Federal Reserve is the main source, while associated information is compiled in the Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts produced jointly with the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); those nonfinancial data are carried in Haver's **USNA** database as well as in **FFUNDS**. Note that revisions are common throughout the accounts with every quarterly release.

250314H2.jpg

250314I2.jpg

- Nonfinancial sectors together borrowed 11.4% of GDP in Q4.
- Not surprisingly, the largest borrowing sector was the federal government.
- Households had sizable amounts of home mortgage borrowing, though this was less than in Q3.
- Businesses paid down debt in Q4.

U.S. Economic Sectors Borrowed Moderately in Q4 and for All of 2024

Andrew Cates

**Falling US growth momentum**
The latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey reflects a shifting global economic landscape, with the US experiencing a notable loss of momentum. After climbing above 2.0% on the back of a strong economic performance in late 2024, consensus forecasts for US growth in 2025 have now been revised downward for the first time in nearly a year. This reversal reflects weaker-than-expected economic data and emerging challenges tied to the policy shifts of the new administration. The downgrade in US growth projections also coincides with a further downward revision to an already subdued outlook for the UK and the euro area, reinforcing concerns about a sluggish global growth outlook (chart 1).

250313Z1.jpg

**Global inflation expectations**
In the meantime the same survey reveals growing concerns about the inflation outlook in the US and Europe this year, and possibly reflecting the impact of US tariff policies on global price pressures. Japan’s inflation forecast for 2025 has also surged, as rising import costs and shifting trade dynamics have additionally contributed to stronger price pressures. This all stands in contrast to China with inflation expectations for this year falling below 1%, reinforcing concerns about deflation and weak demand (chart 2).

250313Z2.jpg

The recent financial market volatility, marked by sharp swings in bond yields and equity market repricing, reflects growing uncertainty about the trajectory of the US economy amid a rapidly shifting policy environment. The US administration’s latest tariff measures, and their conflicting objectives, have amplified uncertainty, stifled risk appetite and further ignited inflation concerns (charts 1 and 2). Markets are grappling with the inflationary impact of rising import costs, the potential supply chain disruptions caused by abrupt shifts in trade policy, and the broader implications of protectionism on corporate investment. Meanwhile, recent policy announcements from Germany and China, coupled with firming inflationary pressures in Japan, have pushed global (ex-US) bond yields sharply higher, potentially amplifying global financial instability (charts 3 and 4). These shifts could profoundly reshape global trade and investment, not just through economic fundamentals but also through a growing erosion of goodwill toward the United States. As policy unpredictability forces companies and governments to hedge against potential disruptions, trust in the stability of US economic leadership is weakening. At the same time, concerns are mounting over the effectiveness of US policy choices, particularly in relation to one of its core ambitions—reshoring manufacturing jobs (charts 5 and 6). The question remains whether these interventions will achieve their intended goals or simply accelerate automation and supply chain realignment elsewhere.

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/3jhzSO4G2WNbw3KYrYFowF?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

<iframe allow="autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *; clipboard-write" frameborder="0" height="175" style="width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;border-radius:10px;" sandbox="allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" src="https://embed.podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/from-blue-to-red/id1706849345?i=1000699027560"></iframe>

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

U.S. Housing Affordability Is Little Changed in January

Recent Commentaries

U.S. Economic Sectors Borrowed Moderately in Q4 and for All of 2024

Charts of the Week: From Blue to Red

U.S. PPI Is Unchanged in February; Rise in Core Index Moderates

Unemployment Insurance Claims Ease Slightly in March 8 Week

EMU IP: A Long Dig-out Is Underway

U.S. Consumer Price Inflation & Core Price Gains Ease in February

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints