Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

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Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

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Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

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Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

US labor's share of total income at a series low

Robert Brusca

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German industrial production rose by 0.7% in September after rising 1% in August. Consumer goods and capital goods sectors also had strong gains in each of the last two months. Intermediate goods showed milder and more erratic output results and trends.

Sequentially, IP headline gains are 0.5% over 12 months; that rises to a 1.5% annualized pace over six months but edges slightly lower to a 1.3% pace over three months. Still, there are output gains on all horizons, and the three-month and six-month gains are each stronger than the year-on-year.

Consumer goods output sequentially is less buoyant even over three months, largely because of a huge drop in July that gains in August and September could not erase. So, the sequential output trend for consumer goods is erratic despite two solid months of back-to-back gains. Capital goods output shows acceleration and building momentum, with its annualized pace at 8% over three months. Intermediate goods output shows contractions over each of the sequential horizons and a tendency toward deceleration.

September data conclude the data for Q3. On a full quarter-over-quarter basis, output is falling in two of three sectors. The exception is capital goods, where output posts a quarterly gain of just 0.4% at an annual rate.

To put growth in a greater perspective, annual growth rates of output ranked on data back to 2006 place total German IP growth at a 50.8 percentile standing. Capital goods have a 52.4 percentile standing for growth, while consumer goods growth is a laggard at a 36.7 percentile standing and intermediate goods at a 42.7 percentile standing. Only total IP growth and capital goods have standings above their respective 50% mark, placing them above their median gain on this horizon.

German manufacturing output, real orders, and real sales show erratic-to-weaker trends. Manufacturing output shows gains on all sequential horizons, while real orders and real sales are both showing significant declines as well as a pattern of deceleration. Manufacturing output and real sales are falling in Q3. But in terms of ranked year-over-year growth rates, real orders and real sales have standings above their historic median rates.

The survey indicators for the German economy show a progression toward strength over the last three months, and so do the sequential readings, for the most part. All the indicators are higher month-to-month. But their percentile standings, conducted on levels of these survey data, all register below median standings on data back to 2006. Recent performance is good, but it is weak in a historic context.

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Data for three early reporting EMU members, France, Spain, and Portugal, show output increases in September. However, their respective sequential footprints are not as upbeat. France shows output declines over each sequential horizon; Spain and Portugal are erratic. However, Spain’s IP growth rate over 12 months is above its median result, while France and Portugal have IP growth rates ranking near the lower third of their respective historic queues of growth rates for output.

On balance, the German data reported are fairly solid, with the surveys being quite upbeat. Real orders and real sales trends are cautionary and must be monitored. The three European reporters underline the fact that Europe is faring less well than Germany. Just another reason to be wary of good news. But what we do have here is a nice slug of good news. Maybe it can last?

Germany

German IP: Solid Gains in September; Strong Survey Results

Andrew Cates

**Half a pass-through**
Interest-rate expectations have moved higher this year, but long-term bond-yield forecasts have risen by much less. The Blue Chip Financial Forecasts panel has repeatedly revised its policy-rate outlook upwards, reflecting a more restrictive monetary environment, while making more modest adjustments to longer-term yields (chart 1). This divergence might suggest that forecasters expect tighter monetary policy to prove less persistent than current interest-rate settings imply, or that other forces are impacting longer-term yields. Japan provides an important contrast. There, long-term yield forecasts have risen more sharply than policy-rate expectations, reflecting growing concerns about government borrowing and fiscal sustainability. The broader message is that bond markets are responding not only to the outlook for monetary policy, but also to differences in fiscal conditions and the credibility of public finances.

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**The market has already voted**
South Korea offers a striking example of the gap between market prices and economic forecasts. The KOSPI has fallen sharply since its June peak, yet consensus growth projections have continued to improve (chart 2). Korea's position at the heart of the global semiconductor supply chain makes it especially sensitive to changes in expectations for AI spending. Its equity market may be signalling a turn in the investment cycle that forecasters have yet to acknowledge. Equities are imperfect predictors, of course, and a correction need not foreshadow an economic downturn. But the divergence may now be too large to dismiss.

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**Borrowers have stopped asking**
The latest Federal Reserve loan officer survey published this week offers a less reassuring view of the American economy. Demand for mortgages, commercial property loans and broader business credit has weakened sharply and together (chart 3). That matters because conventional (i.e. non-AI-related) investment has already been lacklustre. Large-scale technology construction may be sustaining aggregate capital spending, but it does not mean the wider private sector is eager to expand. Monetary policy could already be restraining the borrowers it reaches most directly, even as the most conspicuous investment boom continues elsewhere. This is an uncomfortable imbalance for the Fed — and a warning against treating strong headline investment as evidence of broad-based strength.

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**Where the credit is going instead**
US credit has not disappeared. It has increasingly changed its route. US banks have expanded lending to non-bank financial institutions at a remarkable pace in recent months, and such loans now account for a much larger share of bank balance sheets than they did before the pandemic (chart 4). Some of that money ultimately supports borrowers through private funds and other intermediaries, making the final destination of credit harder to trace. The IMF has also drawn attention to complex financing arrangements within the technology sector. None of this proves that AI investment is chiefly funded through these channels. It does hint that conventional bank-loan data provide an incomplete picture of leverage and risk. A less visible credit cycle is not necessarily a safer one.

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**Lead times lengthen again**
This week’s manufacturing PMI surveys suggest that supply constraints are returning just as demand is becoming more uneven. Manufacturers across major economies report longer delivery times and renewed pressure on input costs (chart 5). Competition for electrical equipment and specialist components, alongside tariffs and disrupted trade routes, are probably adding to the strain. This is arguably not a repeat of the supply shock of 2021–22. But it is a reminder that inflation can persist even when ordinary borrowers and consumers are retrenching. Central banks face the familiar difficulty of responding to higher prices without unnecessarily amplifying weakness elsewhere.

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**No room at the margin**
Fiscal policy offers little comfort. France's debt burden has risen markedly since 2019, while its primary balance and credit standing have deteriorated. Japan faces its own scrutiny, and the UK is hardly immune. By contrast, several countries once regarded as Europe's fiscal weak links have reduced their debt ratios and improved their standing (chart 6). The old division between prudent core and vulnerable periphery no longer fits the evidence. That helps explain why sovereign bond investors are paying closer attention to fiscal credibility. Yet the deeper concern is what happens if private investment falters. Governments with limited fiscal room may find themselves asked to support an economy at precisely the moment markets are least willing to finance the response.

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The US midterm elections have significantly altered the political landscape in Washington. Democrats have secured control of both houses of Congress, ending unified Republican control and introducing a period of divided government for the remainder of President Trump's term. Concerns about living costs and the war with Iran appear to have influenced voting patterns, contributing to Democratic gains that exceeded expectations. The economic implications are arguably mixed. Divided government could limit the scope for further tax cuts and additional public spending, but may also complicate negotiations over budgets and federal borrowing. The election arrives at an awkward moment for markets. Confidence in the AI investment boom has already been shaken by doubts over financing, valuations and eventual returns. Greater scrutiny of data centres and energy demand adds another uncertainty, but politics did not create the underlying problem. Nor is technology the only source of unease. This week's charts show forecasters struggling to keep pace with changing interest-rate expectations (chart 1), a Korean equity market at odds with increasingly optimistic growth projections (chart 2), and a marked retreat in US loan demand (chart 3). Yet lending to non-bank financial institutions continues to expand (chart 4), supply pressures are reappearing (chart 5), and stretched public finances are unsettling sovereign bond markets (chart 6). The common theme is a world economy whose apparent resilience conceals growing imbalances — and markets that may be recognising them before forecasters do.

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Charts of the Week: When Expectations Meet Reality

Sandy Batten

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Nonfarm business productivity (output per hour) jumped 3.6% q/q saar in Q3 following an upwardly revised 2.1% quarterly gain in Q2 (previously 1.4%). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 2.7% quarterly increase in productivity. Compared with a year, productivity was up 2.1%, slightly slower than 2.3% y/y in Q2. Since productivity growth began to accelerate at the beginning of 2023, it has grown at a well above trend 2.7% annual rate, likely a reflection of AI and other technology advances. Strong productivity is a key factor for boosting real incomes and restraining inflation pressures.

Nonfarm business output (a little different from real GDP) increased 3.7% q/q saar in Q3 versus an upwardly revised 2.4% in Q2 (previously 1.7%). By contrast, real GDP grew 3.4% q/q in Q3. Hours worked edged up 0.1% q/q in Q3 following an unrevised 0.3% quarterly increase in Q2. Compensation growth slowed to 2.9% in Q3 from an upwardly revised 4.0% increase in Q2 (previously 2.6%). Compared to a year ago, compensation growth slowed to 4.5% y/y from 4.9%. With quarterly productivity growth exceeding compensation growth in Q3, unit labor costs fell 0.7% q/q in Q3 after an upwardly revised 1.9% quarterly gain in Q2 (previously +1.2%). The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 1.1% q/q increase in unit labor costs in Q3. The y/y rate of advance for unit labor costs slowed, to 2.4% y/y in Q3 from 2.6% in Q2.

Manufacturing productivity growth slowed markedly in Q3, to 0.3% q/q saar from an upwardly revised 2.9% quarterly gain in Q2 (previously 2.4%). Factory output rose only 1.3% q/q in Q3 following an upwardly revised 5.8% q/q jump in Q2 (previously +5.4%). Hours worked increased 1.0% q/q, down from 2.9% (unrevised) in Q2. Compensation growth picked up to 3.0% from an upwardly revised 2.4% in Q2 (previously 2.1%). With the slowdown in productivity growth and the pickup in compensation growth, unit labor costs jumped 2.7% q/q in Q3 after a 0.4% quarterly decline in Q2 (previously -0.3%). Compared with a year ago, manufacturing unit labor costs were up 4.0% y/y, the highest yearly rate of advance since Q4 2024.

Today’s release also contained benchmark revisions from the beginning of 2021. They were modest but generally positive. Over the 22 quarters of revision, productivity grew at a revised 1.62% annual rate, compared to 1.50% prior to the revisions.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Output per hour jumped a larger-than-expected and well above trend 3.6% q/q saar in Q3 with an upward revision to Q2.
- Compensation growth slowed to 2.9% q/q resulting in a 0.7% quarterly decline in unit labor costs. 
- Benchmark revisions back to the beginning of 2021 were modest but generally positive, pushing up productivity growth from Q4 2020 to 1.62% from 1.50%.

U.S. Productivity Jumped in Q3 2026

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped by 6,000 to 189,000 in the week ending October 31 from 195,000 in the week ending October 24, revised from 194,000. The four-week average was 194,750 in the October 31 week, down from 197,000 in the October 24 week, revised from 196,750. Claims matched the July 18 week’s level and remain range-bound at historically low levels. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 196,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose 23,000 to 1.718 million in the week ending October 24, up from 1.695 million in the week ending October 17, revised from 1.701 million. The four-week moving average was 1.710 million in the October 24 week, little changed from 1.709 million in the October 17 week. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.1% in the October 24 week.

The insured unemployment rate varies greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending October 17, no state had a rate above 2.00%; the highest rates were in Massachusetts (1.71%), Washington (1.82%), and New Jersey (1.98%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.22%), Louisiana (0.28%), Florida (0.31%), Alabama (0.33%), North Carolina and North Dakota (both 0.34%), Arkansas (0.37%), Iowa and Nebraska (both 0.39%), Kansas and Tennessee (both 0.43%), New Hampshire (0.46%), Georgia (0.47%), Kentucky, Mississippi and Virginia (all 0.48%), and Idaho (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include Texas (0.93%), Pennsylvania (1.21%), Illinois (1.28%), New York (1.40%) and California (1.70%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims declined by 6,000 to 189,000 in the week of October 31.
- Continuing claims rose by 23,000 to 1.718 million in the week ending October 24.
- The insured unemployment rate held at 1.1% in the week of October 24.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Dropped in the Week of October 31

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On the German long-term chart of year-over-year growth rates, we can see that German orders, both domestic- and foreign-sourced, while quite volatile, are making a consistent trend move to stronger ground.

The table, in contrast, focuses on growth rates over the last two years and principally over the last year and shorter horizons. On that shorter time horizon, orders are generally weakening.

**Orders overview**
Total orders show improved growth over 12 months compared to the growth rate a year ago. On a shorter view, however, comparing the six-month growth rate to the 12-month growth rate finds a step down to -4.7% over six months from 3.3% over 12 months, then comparing the three-month growth rate to the six-month growth rate, another step down to an -11.9% annual rate from a -4.7% annual rate occurs. Despite improvement in the year-over-year growth performance, the pattern of orders from the one-year horizon on shows a general weakening.

**Foreign vs. domestic patterns: inconsistent meets convoluted**
Foreign orders improve over 12 months compared to their year-ago growth rate, with the year-ago growth rate at -2.5% compared to +0.2% over the last 12 months. Over six months, that pace degrades to a -13% annual rate, then, over three months, it makes the most modest improvement to -12.1% from -13%. In contrast, domestic orders make a sharp improvement over 12 months compared to a year ago as the 12-month growth rate jumps to 7.9% compared to -1% a year ago. Over six months, that growth rate steps up from 7.9% to 9.1% at an annual rate, but then over three months, it falls back hard to a -12.1% growth rate.

**Monthly patterns**
Monthly growth rates tell somewhat similar stories about the twists and turns being convoluted and echoing the sequential pattern since the month-to-month data show an extremely weak August with a strong bounce-back in September, but that September bounce-back is paltry in comparative terms, compared to the setback experienced in August. Rolling all of this up into a pattern for the quarter-to-date results for the now-completed third quarter shows total foreign order growth falling at an 11.8% annual rate, as domestic orders surge ahead at a 21.8% annual rate, pushing total orders up at a paltry 0.7% annual rate. Evaluating performance by looking at the standing of the 12-month growth rates, those growth rates year-over-year for total orders have a 58.2 percentile standing driven substantially by domestic orders that have an 82.8 percentile standing against what are weak foreign growth rates for orders at a 38.1 percentile standing.

**Real sales overall and by sector**
Moving on to look at real sales and what's going on with sector sales expressed in real terms, we see a smaller increase in real sales that rose by 0.2% in September after rising by 0.1% in August compared to a 1.4% drop in July. Sequential real sales follow the pattern for orders, with the year-over-year growth rate at 1.8% stronger than a -2.6% year-ago pace, then, over six months that growth rate falls from 1.8% to -2.5%, and then over three months it falls again to -4.1%. Real sales across sectors generally follow this same pattern. The growth rates for manufacturing sales are nearly identical to the headline number for mining and manufacturing.

**EU Commission industrial confidence in EMU’s Big-Four economies**
The panel at the bottom looks at a sampling of the large monetary union economies, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, comparing the results in terms of the EU industrial confidence metrics. These measures generally find improvement for the economies in September compared to August with France as the exception. In France, the September value of -5.3 was a decline from -3.3 in August, whereas the other countries experienced slightly less deeply negative assessments in September compared to August. The average data presented in the sequential pattern find Germany slightly improving on the EU industrial confidence index from a -15 reading over 12 months to -12.4 over six months, to -10.6 over three months, a clear progression toward improvement. Even France has a progression toward improvement although with a much slighter tendency for improvement. Italy and Spain also show small movements toward improvement from 12 months to six months, to three months. However, the 12-month change shows some mixed performance. Compared to a year ago, Germany and Italy show improvement, from their year-ago values, while France and Spain show deterioration. Evaluating the September industrial confidence level readings by comparing them to those back to 1990, we find all of them reside at a level at or above their 50th percentile except for Germany; the German reading has a 45.7 percentile standing, fewer than 5-percentile points below its median. Italy has a standing at its 52.6 percentile, France at its 59.7 percentile. In Spain, the ongoing success story of the Monetary Union, there is a 76.8 percentile standing.

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**Summing up**
On balance, we have disappointing data for Germany over the near term although still evidence that viewed more broadly there is improvement in train for the German economy. The EU industrial confidence data are mixed on the Big-Four EMU economies, although the sequential ratings suggest that there was improvement in train there. These economies continue to face an uncertain future with the war in Ukraine and still unsettled conditions in Iran that are hard to characterize and continue to be associated with an unusual elevation in oil prices and the interruption of other supply lines. Meanwhile, central banks are raising rates, with the Bank of England joining the club, offering a rate hike today and warning that there could be more ahead. Investors are also trying to puzzle out the implications for global policy of the substantial and unexpected loss of power by Republicans in the midterm elections in the United States, raising the question of how different the next two years might look. So far, the market reaction seems to be positive, but that's going to be something to continue to watch. Markets often like it when there's political impasse, and the U.S. may be exactly in that situation for the next two years.

German Orders Make Strong Jump, but from a Too-Deep Hole

Winnie Tapasanun

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The U.S. ISM Services PMI declined to a lower-than-expected 54.5 in October from 54.9 in September and 55.4 in August, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed, indicating expansion in the services sector for the 28th straight month but at the slowest pace since July. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 54.7 for October. The latest reading was above 52.0 in October 2025 and a low of 49.4 in June 2024, while remaining below its recent high of 56.1 in February and a record-high 67.5 in November 2021. The 12-month average was 54.3, pointing to continued growth in the U.S. services sector.

Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing reading. This index slipped to 54.6 in October from 54.9 in September and 55.3 in August, signaling expansion for the 17th consecutive month but at the weakest pace since July. The latest result was above 51.6 in October 2025 and a low of 49.3 in June 2024, albeit remaining below a high of 55.7 in February and a record-high 66.7 in November 2021. These series date back to July 1997.

In the latest services survey, the business activity index fell to 53.8 in October from 56.5 in September and 61.7 in August, indicating continued expansion in business activity for 28 months in a row but at the slowest rate since September 2025. The index was above a low of 50.0 in June 2024 but below a peak of 70.9 in November 2021. In October, 20.8% of respondents (NSA) reported higher activity while 11.4% reported an activity decline. The new orders index decreased to 55.9 in October from 59.8 in September and 60.9 in August, reflecting expansion in new orders for the 17th successive month but at the slowest pace since June. The index was above a low of 47.2 in May 2025 but below a high of 61.0 in February 2023 and a record-high 69.2 in October 2021. In October, 26.1% of respondents (NSA) reported higher new orders while 9.0% reported declines. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index (NSA) rose to 56.7 in October from 53.2 in September, indicating slower performance in supplier deliveries for the 23rd straight month, following one month in faster territory in November 2024.

On the labor front, the employment index advanced to 51.4 in October from 50.1 in September, showing employment activity in the services sector expanded for the second straight month after contracting in August and July. The latest reading was above a low of 43.5 in December 2023 but below a high of 54.1 in June 2023 and a peak of 58.9 in April 2021. In October, an increased 16.6% of respondents (NSA) indicated higher employment while a lessened 13.5% reported declines.

On the inflation front, the prices index, above 70 for the seventh time in eight months, edged down to a still-elevated 73.0 in October from 74.0 in September, indicating prices paid by services organizations for materials and services had risen (i.e., above 50) since June 2017. The index was well above a low of 53.9 in March 2024 but below a peak of 83.7 in March 2022. In October, 48.6% of respondents (NSA) reported higher prices while only 4.0% reported price declines.

Additionally, the new export orders index rebounded to 55.2 in October from 46.9 in September, showing new export orders expanded for the fourth time in five months. The imports index climbed to 54.2 in October from 52.9 in September, marking the eighth expansion in nine months. The inventories index slid to 55.4 in October from 57.8 in September, indicating inventories expanded for the ninth consecutive month but at the weakest pace since July, while the inventory sentiment index edged up to 52.1 from 51.7, showing continued expansion since May 2023. The backlog of orders index increased to 58.0 in October from 56.6 in September, marking the fastest pace of expansion since July 2022, following an 11-month period of contraction from March 2025 through January 2026. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector; below 50 suggests contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- ISM Services PMI down slightly to 54.5 in Oct., still above the 12-month avg. of 54.3.
- Business Activity (53.8) lowest since Sept. ’25; expanding for the 28th consecutive mth.
- New Orders (55.9) lowest since June; growing for 17 mths. running. 
- Employment (51.4) highest since February; second successive mth. above 50.
- Prices Index (73.0) down modestly but above 70 for the seventh time in eight mths., indicating prices rising since June ’17.

U.S. ISM Services PMI at a Three-Month Low, Still Indicating Expansion for the 28th Straight Month

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) narrowed slightly to $105.0 billion in September from an upwardly revised $105.7 billion in August (previously -$105.6 billion), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a deficit of $107.9 billion. The goods deficit narrowed to $135.9 billion in September from $136.6 billion in August while the services surplus was essentially unchanged at +$30.9 billion.

The real (inflation-adjusted) trade deficit in goods widened to $119.5 billion (2017$) in September from $116.0 billion in August. For all of Q3, the real deficit totaled $341.6 billion versus $277.8 billion in August. This marked widening in the real deficit was already noted in the release of the first estimate of real GDP for Q3 where it was reported that the widening of the trade deficit subtracted 3.3%-points from overall real GDP growth in Q3.

Exports of goods and services increased 1.9% m/m (+10.0% y/y) in September on top of a 1.6% monthly gain in August. These two consecutive months of increased exports followed three consecutive monthly declines. Goods exports (Census basis) rose 2.5% m/m (12.6% y/y) in September, the largest monthly gain since April. Increases were widely spread across major end-use categories. Exports of food and feeds jumped 13.3% m/m, the largest monthly increase since October 2021. Exports of capital goods excluding autos increased 5.5% m/m, the third consecutive monthly rise. Exports of consumer goods ex autos increased 3.7% m/m, the third increase in the past four months. By contrast, auto exports slumped 5.6% m/m, the third consecutive monthly decline and the fifth decline in the past six months. Services exports increased 0.7% m/m (+4.4% y/y) in September following a 0.3% monthly rise in August. Transport exports increased 0.8% m/m; travel was up 1.8% m/m; charges for the use of intellectual property rose 0.6% m/m, the fourth consecutive monthly gain.

Imports of goods and services increased 1.2% m/m (21.3% y/y) in September, a slowdown from a 4.4% monthly gain in August. Goods imports (Census basis) increased 2.4% m/m (28.2% y/y) in September but were generally weak apart from imports of capital goods with goods imports declining in four of the six major end-use categories. The importance of AI-related investment continued to dominate with imports of capital goods ex autos up 7.9% m/m (77.8% y/y). In the past three months, capital goods imports have risen 25.5%. Excluding capital goods imports, the remainder of imports fell 1.9% m/m, the third monthly decline in the past four months. Imports of consumer goods ex autos rose 4.1% m/m in September, more than offsetting a 0.8% monthly decline in August. Service imports increased 1.0% m/m (3.0% y/y) in September following a 0.5% m/m increase in August. The September increase was led by a 1.8% m/m gain in transport imports and a 3.4% m/m gain in travel imports.

By country, the goods trade deficit with China widened to $17.9 billion in September from $16.4 billion in August. This was the widest deficit with China since April 2025. The trade deficit with the European Union widened to $14.2 billion in September from $11.0 billion in August. The trade deficit with Japan increased to $4.8 billion in September from $3.7 billion in August.

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The deficit in goods and services narrowed to $105.0 billion in September from $105.7 billion in August.
- This capped off a quarter in which the trade deficit widened markedly, subtracting 3.3%-points from overall GDP.
- The goods deficit narrowed to $135.9 billion in September, while the services surplus was essentially unchanged at $30.9 billion.
- Exports rose 1.9% m/m, led by strong increases in exports of food and feeds and of capital goods.
- Imports increased by 1.2% m/m, once again dominated by increased AI-related capital goods imports.

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in September

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Mortgage applications fell 1.2% w/w (-42.0% y/y) in the week ending October 30, after rising 3.4% w/w (-42.4% y/y) in the week ending October 23, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 2.0% w/w (-19.5% y/y) in the latest week, after rising 3.8% w/w (-18.4% y/y) in the October 23 week. Applications for loan refinancing edged up 0.1% w/w (-59.9% y/y) in the October 30 week following a rise of 2.7% w/w (-61.1% y/y) in the October 23 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 7bps to 7.52% in the week ending October 30 from 7.59% in the week ending October 23, its third consecutive weekly decline from 7.75% in the October 9 week. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 9bps to 7.00% in the October 30 week from 6.91% in the October 23 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate fell 12bps to 7.34% in the latest week from 7.46% in the October 23 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped by 20bps to 6.66% in the October 30 week from 6.86% in the October 23 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 39.8% of total applications in the week of October 30 from 38.9% in the week ending October 23. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity edged up to 11.4% in the latest week from 11.3% in the October 23 week.

The average size of a mortgage fell 0.3% w/w (-9.0% y/y) to $377,400 in the week ending October 30, after rising 1.7% w/w (-8.2% y/y) to $378,600 in the week ending October 23. The average size of a purchase loan edged up 0.1% w/w to $452,600 in the October 30 week after rising 1.7% w/w to $452,100 in the October 23 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 0.2% w/w to $263,500 in the week ending October 30 after increasing 1.7% w/w to $262,900 in the October 23 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase declined and applications for loan refinancing edged up in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans fell 7bps to 7.52%.
- Average loan size edged down in the October 30 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fell in the October 30 Week

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 97.8 in October from 97.9 in September and 98.7 in August, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey from the National Federation of Independent Business, indicating that small business sentiment was little changed and declined m/m for the third consecutive month. Job openings and reports that it is a good time to expand increased, while inventory components and earnings trends fell. The index was below its 53-year average of 98.0 for the second consecutive month; it was also below 98.2 in October 2025 and a peak of 105.1 in December 2024, albeit above a low of 88.5 in March 2024. Four of the 10 index components rose, five declined, and one was unchanged. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index fell to 84 in October, matching the lowest level since December 2025, following a one-point rise to 90 in September, while remaining above its historical average of 68. The index was well above a low of 65 in November 2023 but below its record high of 110 in October 2024.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months, up in the October survey, stayed positive for the 24th straight month. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve rebounded to 8% in October following a four-point decline to 6% in September; these readings were far below a high of 52% in December 2024 but significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales held steady at a net 9% in October, matching the highest level since June; the latest result was below a high of 22% in December 2024 but above a low of -18% in August 2024. A net -4% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up from -8% in September and equaling the highest reading since July; the measure remained above a low of -20% in October 2024 but below the recent positive reading of 1% in February and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to expand the business advanced to 11% in October following a five-point drop to 7% in September (the lowest level since May); the latest figure was below a high of 20% in December 2024 but above a low of 2% in March 2023. Plans to make capital outlays edged down to 21% in October, the lowest level since June, from 22% in September; these numbers were above a low of 16% in May but below a high of 28% in November 2024 and a peak of 31% in October 2021. Expected credit conditions decreased to -5% in October, the lowest reading since June, from -3% in September; this result remained above a low of -11% in November 2023. Meanwhile, a net -3% of respondents viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in October, down from 0% in September and marking the weakest reading since May; the series had been negative since June 2025, with zero readings only for three months (September 2026, June 2026, and August 2025); a positive reading of 1% was recorded in May 2025.

On the labor front, 48% of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in October, up from 45% in September and posting a three-month high. These numbers were above a low of 43% in August 2025 but below a high of 56% in August 2024 and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 18% planned to increase employment in October, up from 17% in September and marking the highest level since July; it remained above a low of 9% in May but below a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 36% reported positions not able to be filled in October, up from 32% in September and matching the highest reading since July; these figures remained above a low of 29% in May but below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The measure fell to -23% in October, the weakest reading since March, following a one-point decline to -20% in September. These readings were below a recent high of -14% in February and a high of -5% in June 2021 but above a low of -37% in August 2024.

On the pricing front, actual and expected selling prices remained at an elevated level, indicating continued inflationary pressures. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices increased to 33% in October, the highest level since June, after holding at 31% for three successive months. The latest reading was up from a low of 20% in August 2024 but well below a peak of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices jumped to 37% in October, the highest reading since July 2022, following a three-point rise to 31% in September; these readings remained above a low of 21% in April 2023.

Wage inflation remained relatively high in the October survey. A net 29% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, up from 28% in September. It was above a low of 26% in November 2025 but below a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 24% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, up from 20% in September and equaling the highest level since December 2025; this was above a low of 17% in June but below its highs of 28% in November 2024, 30% in November 2023, and 32% in October 2022.

Labor quality was cited as the single most important problem facing small businesses for the fourth straight month, as reported by 25% of NFIB members in October, down from 26% in September. Taxes ranked second as the next most important problem, as reported by 21% of respondents in October, surging from 11% in September and representing the highest since May 2021. Inflation ranked third and remained a key challenge for small businesses, as reported by 17% of respondents in October, down from a three-month high of 20% in September; these readings were well below a peak of 37% in July 2022. Other concerns (in October vs. September) included government requirements (7% vs. 7%), labor costs (7% vs. 6%), insurance cost/availability (7% vs. 6%), poor sales (6% vs. 11%), and competition from large businesses (5% vs. 6%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- NFIB Small Business Optimism Idx down 0.1 pts. to 97.8 in Oct., slightly below its 53-year avg. of 98.0.
- Uncertainty Idx down 6 pts. to 84, lowest level since Dec. ’25.
- Expectations for economy up 2 pts. to 8%, positive for the 24th straight month.
- Expected real sales unchanged at 9%, matching highest level since June.
- Plans to expand business up to 11% from September’s 7% (lowest since May).
- Hiring plans up to 18%, highest since July; earnings trends down to -23%, lowest since March.
- Avg. selling prices up to 33%, highest since June; planned price hikes up to 37%, highest since July ’22.
- Top three business concerns: labor quality (25%), taxes (21%), and inflation (17%).

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Little Changed in October

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