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[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

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Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

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Crude oil price has returned to pre-conflict level but traffic through Hormuz still subpar

Robert Brusca

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Unemployment rates in the European Monetary Union (EMU) were steady in May at 6.2%, the same level as in April, after April had fallen to 6.2% from 6.3%. The 6.2% reading is the lowest for the community since it was formed. Meanwhile, for the larger community, the EU, the unemployment rate has stabilized at 5.9%, the same as in April, again, a tick lower than it was in March. This 5.9% reading is a tick above the historic low for the European Union (EU). In both cases, the performance of these two economic conglomerations is quite excellent.

**Monthly**
The table looks at 12 of the most senior members of the monetary union, including an observation for the United Kingdom based on its claimant-count unemployment rate, presented at the bottom of the table. In May, the monetary union saw 4 of 12 members in the table with lower unemployment rates than they had in April. In April, five members had lower unemployment rates than in March. In March, seven members had lower unemployment rates than they posted in February. The progression to lower unemployment rates has slowed based on monthly data.

**Sequentially**
Looking at changes in the unemployment rates over broader sequential periods—three months, six months, and 12 months—6 out of 12 reporters have lower unemployment rates over three months; 7 have lower unemployment rates over six months; only 4 report unemployment rates that are lower over 12 months. The broader periods for comparison show changes in the unemployment rates that report more declines over the shorter and more recent periods compared to the longer/older periods. This is not the same trend leaning that we get from the last three months of data. It'll be good to watch these developments in the coming months to see if the tendency to lower unemployment rates is slowing or whether dropping unemployment is continuing in force.

**Rankings**
The ranking of unemployment rates since 1990 finds only three of these 12 monetary union members with unemployment rates above their medians. Those are Luxembourg, with a 98.2 percentile standing, Finland with an 81.9 percentile standing, and Austria with a 76.6 percentile standing. Italy, on the other hand, is reporting the lowest unemployment rate that it has seen during this period. The Greek unemployment rate has been this low or lower only about 3% of the time, while in Spain the unemployment rate has been this low or lower 11% of the time. For Portugal, the unemployment ranking figure has been weaker 13% of the time. The monetary union continues to report excellent labor market results even though economic growth has been relatively disappointing.

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**Summing up and central bankers**
In the wake of the monetary conference in the Sintra this past week, central banks featuring contributions from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Canada, saw central bank heads talking about getting back to basics and stopping the use of some of the newer tools that had been pressed into service after the great financial crisis and during COVID. Bankers are getting back to basics to focus on short-term interest rates and say they will stop fiddling with the size of the balance sheet and to largely set aside the use of forward guidance. It will take time to determine what these changes are going to mean in terms of how policy performs and how markets will react. While there was a lot of discussion, and in some places concerns about the loss of forward guidance, what is clear is that, with forward guidance gone, there will be more volatility; however, the markets will be freer to price economic events themselves and will not be so stuck to the outlook of the central bank.  That could turn out to be a gigantic win for both markets and central bankers.

Europe

Unemployment Remains Quite Low in Europe

Winnie Tapasanun

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The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to a lower-than-expected 53.3 in June, the first m/m fall since February, following a 1.3-point increase to 54.0 in May, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management. The June reading, above the 50 expansion-contraction threshold, indicated the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the sixth straight month, albeit at a slightly slower pace. A reading of 53.8 for June had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The June manufacturing PMI, while above a contraction-level 49.0 in June 2025 and a low of 47.0 in October 2024, remained below a peak of 63.8 in March 2021.

The production index declined to 52.2 in June from 54.3 in May, indicating production expanded for the eighth consecutive month but at the slowest pace since December. The index was above a low of 44.8 in April 2025 but below a peak of 66.5 in March 2021. In June, 19.0% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while 13.0% reported lower production. The new orders index slipped to 56.0 in June from 56.8 in May, signaling new orders grew for the sixth straight month following four successive months of contraction. The index remained well above a low of 41.8 in January 2023 but below a high of 67.0 in May 2021. In June, 22.3% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 13.4% reported declines. The inventories index climbed to 51.4 in June from 49.9 in May, marking the first expansion since April 2025. The index was slightly below a high of 52.7 in March 2025 but above a low of 43.8 in October 2024. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index fell to 57.4 in June from 60.6 in May and April, indicating slowing delivery performance for the seventh consecutive month after faster deliveries in November. In June, 18.1% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while 3.4% reported faster speeds.

On the labor front, the employment index improved to 49.7 in June from 48.6 in May, showing employment contracted for the 33rd straight month but at the slowest contraction pace since January 2025. The index was above a low of 44.1 in November 2025 but below a high of 56.5 in March 2022. In June, 16.2% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 13.8% reported lower hiring.

On the pricing front, the prices paid index fell to a still-high 73.0 (NSA) in June, a 9.1-point drop—the largest decline since July 2022—from 82.1 in May, indicating raw materials prices rose for the 21st straight month but at the slowest rising pace since February. The index remained well above a low of 39.4 in December 2022 but below a high of 87.1 in March 2022 and a peak of 92.1 in June 2021. In June, 55.1% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while 9.2% reported price declines.

In other ISM series not included in the composite index, the new export orders index fell to 48.5 in June from 50.6 in May, indicating new export orders contracted for the third time in four months. The index was up from a low of 40.1 in May 2025 but down from a high of 52.4 in January 2025 and a peak of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index edged down to 52.9 in June from 53.0 in May, suggesting imports expanded for the fifth successive month. The index was below its recent high of 54.9 in February but above a low of 39.9 in May 2025. The order backlog index decreased to 50.5 (NSA) in June from 52.2 in May, showing backlog levels grew at the slowest pace in six months. The index was below a high of 56.6 in February and a peak of 70.6 in May 2021 but well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- ISM Mfg. PMI down slightly to 53.3 in June; sixth straight month above 50.
- Production (52.2) expands for the eighth consecutive mth.; new orders (56.0) for the sixth successive mth.
- Employment (49.7) contracts for the 33rd straight mth.; at the slowest contraction pace since Jan. ’25.
- Prices Index (73.0) at a four-month low, still indicating prices rising for the 21st consecutive mth.
- Exports (48.5) contract for the third time in four mths.; imports (52.9) continue to grow.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Still Expansionary in June; New Orders and Production Growing at a Slower Pace; Employment Contracting

Michael J. Moran

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The monthly report on construction activity receives scant attention in the financial press, and investors and traders in financial markets typically pay little heed. However, it is a valuable report for economists, as it provides a broad-based view of building activity, covering private residential and business construction, as well as government-related activity. The figures feed into the calculation of GDP. Unfortunately, results have been soft since early 2025.

Total construction activity rose 0.1 percent in May, marking the third consecutive increase. However, the gains have not been especially large, averaging 0.3%, and they have barely dented the string of weak readings in the preceding 17 months. The year-over-year change in May totaled -1.5%.

Private residential construction, the largest component of the total (41% share), rose 0.3% in May, adding to an average gain of 1.1% in the prior two months and leaving a year-over-year increase of 1.8% (chart, upper left). Most of the advance in the past year was the result of improvements to existing homes (up 8.1%). Construction of new multi-family units has shown little net change in the past year or so, while new single-family building has traced a mild downward trend (off 4.0% in the past year). Public construction has been flat in the past year, with both the federal government and state and local governments showing little net change (chart, upper right).

Private nonresidential construction (34% of the total) has received considerable press attention in the past few years because of explosive growth in the building of data centers. Growth has indeed been vigorous. Building started in 2020 and grew moderately at first, but this sector took off in 2022, about the time when artificial intelligence models became publicly available (chart, lower left, in levels to show the strong trend more clearly). Average annual growth for the three years ended 2025 totaled 48%.

Interestingly, despite the rapid growth in the building of data centers, the private nonresidential sector has been the weakest area of the construction report, with activity trending lower since early 2025 (chart, lower right). Some components of private nonresidential construction have held steady or improved (e.g. amusement & recreation, electric power), but three areas stand out on the soft side: general office, commercial, and manufacturing.

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Building activity in the US was firm in 2023 and 2024, but it has lost ground since then.
- Government-related construction and private residential building have been little changed in the past year or so.
- Private nonresidential construction has been notably weak, despite robust activity in the building of data centers.

Construction in May: Another Soft Reading

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The manufacturing PMI values for June showed more worsening than improving, with 10 of 18 reporters showing conditions unchanged or getting worse on a month-to-month basis. However, taking into account the size of the changes across the various reporters, the median PMI rating for manufacturing in June improved to 51.4, an increase of 0.5 points from the month before. The month-to-month deterioration is relatively broad; however, it's also relatively mixed, and when taking the size of the changes into account, there's actually a monthly improvement.

The chart shows that manufacturing has been undergoing improvements generally since late last year, although in the last few months, there has been a topping, a capping, and in some cases a backtracking from the recent high readings. That action reflects the onset of hostilities between the United States and Iran and the on-again, off-again situation with the Strait of Hormuz being open or closed.

Over three months compared to six months ago, the average readings show deterioration in only 5 of 18 reporters. This clearly reflects what we see in the chart, which is a recent improvement over three months compared to six months. The next comparison of 6-month averages to 12-month averages finds that only four reporters are worse off over six months than they were over 12 months. Those four are Mexico, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Over 12 months compared to 12 months ago, conditions are better everywhere except in India.

In addition, we can evaluate the manufacturing performance by ranking the current month's observation in a queue of data back to January 2022, a period of about 4½ years. Viewed over that span, only four countries have readings in June below their period medians. Those are Indonesia, India, Turkey, and Russia. All the rest have readings above the 50th percentile, putting them above their historic medians. Japan has an exceptionally strong reading in June relative to its history, posting a 95.4 percentile standing. Mexico, China, Malaysia, and Taiwan also post strong standings, in their 80th percentile.

The median queue standing for the entire group is a 69.2 percentile standing, which is still quite strong. Other summary measures of sequential diffusion show that the proportion of reporters improving over 12 months is 94.4%, compared to 72.2% over 6 months and 61.1% over 3 months. The breadth of this improvement is shrinking over the near-term horizons; however, the tendency for improvement is unmistakable.

Average readings for certain groups at the bottom of the table show that the United States, the United Kingdom, EMU countries, Canada, and Japan, on an unweighted basis, have steady improvements in place from 12 months to six months to three months, with a one-month reading even stronger. The BRIC countries have readings that are marginally stronger but are staying in a tight low range around 50.8 to 51.5. The Asian average shows an improvement from 12 months to 6 months and then backtracking, with the current 3-month diffusion values just slightly above 51, around 51.5.

The global economy has shown some significant improvement recently in the manufacturing sector, and this has occurred despite the ongoing war in Ukraine and stepped-up hostilities involving Iran, including the on-again, off-again closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have spiked and have since come down substantially. However, the outlook for peace remains clouded as both sides continue to talk positively about an agreement and a ceasefire, then turn around and violate near-term conditions they have set. This makes it very difficult to handicap the future.

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Mixed but Broad Backtrack in Global Manufacturing in June 

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The Conference Board U.S. Consumer Confidence Index rose 0.7% m/m (-4.2% y/y) to a lower-than-expected 91.2 in June, the fourth monthly rise in five months, after a downwardly revised 3.4% decline to a four-month-low 90.6 in May (-0.7%; 93.1 initially). A reading of 94.3 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The June reading was 6.4% above a low of 85.7 in April 2025 but down from 95.2 in June 2025 and 19.1% below a high of 112.8 in November 2024.

Consumers' views of present economic conditions weakened for the second consecutive month in June, while the views of future economic conditions improved m/m. The Present Situation Index—which assesses current business and labor market conditions—fell 2.5% m/m (-12.5% y/y) to 116.4 in June, the lowest level since February 2021, following a 4.0% drop to 119.4 in May and two successive m/m increases. The index was lower than 133.0 in June 2025 and 25.0% below a high of 155.3 in June 2023. The Expectations Index—which measures the short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose 4.2% m/m (6.4% y/y) to 74.4 this month, the highest level since December and the second increase in three months, after a 2.7% decline to 71.4 in May. The index was higher than 69.9 in June 2025, while 20.6% below a high of 93.7 in November 2024.

Labor market readings showed less optimism this month. The jobs gap—representing the difference between respondents indicating that jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—dropped to 2.4% in June, the lowest reading since February 2021, from 5.0% in May. Calculated by Haver Analytics, this series had an 85% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last 20 years. The jobs plentiful measure inched up to 24.9% of respondents in June from 24.8% in May (the lowest since February 2021). Perceptions of the current labor market weakened, with the jobs hard-to-get measure rising to 22.5% this month, the highest level since January 2021, from 19.8% in May.

Consumers generally viewed business conditions as slightly more favorable compared to last month. Current business conditions were perceived as good by 20.0% of respondents in June, up from 19.2% in May but below a high of 23.4% in June 2023. Expectations that business conditions would improve in six months were 19.0% of respondents, up from 18.8% in May but below a high of 24.7% in November 2024. More jobs were expected in six months by 15.2% of respondents, slightly down from 16.6% in May and below a high of 22.8% in November 2024. The percentage expecting rising income rose to 20.8% in June from 19.2% in May, the highest since February 2020 and above a low of 14.4% in February 2023.

Inflation expectations eased this month but remained elevated. The expected inflation rate in twelve months slipped to 6.0% in June, the lowest since February, after holding at 6.2% for three straight months. The latest reading was below a high of 7.0% in April 2025 but above a low of 5.0% in November 2024. In June, 61.5% of respondents expected that interest rates would rise over the next twelve months, down from 62.4% in May but up from 42.1% in January 2024.

The share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months rebounded to 6.6% in June from 6.5% in May. It was below its most recent high of 7.0% in April but above a low of 4.6% in February 2024. Those planning to buy automobiles rose to 13.3% of respondents this month from 12.6% in May; it was up from a low of 10.6% in April 2025. Meanwhile, the share of respondents planning a vacation within six months declined to 39.1%, the lowest since April 2021, from 41.4% in May.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Headline up 0.6 pts. to 91.2 in June, below expectations; fourth m/m increase in five mths.
- Present Situation Index down 3.0 pts. to 116.4, lowest since Feb. ’21.
- Expectations Index up 3.0 pts. to 74.4, a six-month high.
- Consumers less optimistic about current business & labor market conditions; more upbeat about future business & financial conditions.
- Inflation expectations down to 6.0%, lowest since Feb., as lower oil prices in recent weeks eased consumer inflation fears.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Rebounds in June from a Four-Month Low

Sandy Batten

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Total job openings edged up 0.1% m/m (+3.9% y/y) to 7.594 million in May from a downwardly revised 7.585 million in April (previously 7.618 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Even with only a small rise, the level of openings in May was the highest since May 2024. Accordingly, the job openings rate (the ratio of openings to nonfarm employment plus openings) was unchanged at 4.6% in May. The April and May readings for the job openings rate were the highest since November 2024. In May, the number of unemployed fell while the number of openings edged up. Consequently, the number of openings rose further above the number of unemployed for the second consecutive month, another sign that previously observed softening in labor market conditions may be reversing.

Private sector openings were essentially unchanged in May from April, edging up 2,000 (+4.3% y/y) with the private job openings rate unchanged at 4.8%. The sluggishness in private openings in May was due entirely to a 119,000 decline in private education and health care openings. However, this followed a total increase of 298,000 in March and April. Openings increased in all other major sectors, led by a 95,000 increase in openings in leisure and hospitality. Openings were up 32,000 in construction, 33,000 in manufacturing, and 37,000 in trade and transportation. Total government openings rose 7,000 in May after an upwardly revised 63,000 jump in April (previously +47,000).

Total hiring slipped 0.9% m/m (-3.0% y/y) to 5.170 million in May from an upwardly revised 5.215 million in April (previously 5.116 million). This was the third monthly decline in hiring in the past four months. The hiring rate was unchanged in May at 3.3%. Private sector hiring fell 1.6% m/m (-3.5% y/y) in May, also the third monthly decline in the past four months. The weakness in hiring in May was concentrated in trade and transportation (-56,000) and in construction (-24,000). Manufacturing posted a small decline while professional and business services, and private education and health care posted small increases. Leisure and hospitality hiring rose 15,000, the second monthly increase in the past three months. Total government hiring increased 32,000 in May.

Total separations increased 1.3% (-3.5% y/y) to 5.101 million in May from an upwardly revised 5.038 million in April (previously 4.978 million). Both quits (+22,000) and layoffs (+41,000) increased in May with no change in other separations. The separation rate in May was unchanged at 3.2%. Private separations also rose 1.3% m/m (+62,000, -2.9% y/y) in May. Private quits increased 37,000, private layoffs rose 27,000, while other private separations declined 2,000. The rise in private layoffs was concentrated in construction (+47,000), trade and transportation (+52,000), and private education and healthcare (+52,000). Layoffs declined 18,000 in manufacturing, fell 37,000 in professional and business services, and decreased 50,000 in leisure and hospitality. Even with the rise in private quits in May, they have been trending down in 2026, implying that workers are feeling less comfortable with their employment prospects and hence are choosing to remain in their current jobs.

On the whole, employers remain cautious in hiring. Furthermore, workers are sufficiently unsure of their alternative employment prospects that they are refraining from leaving their current position. Still, openings have gradually risen since the end of last year after having gradually fallen throughout 202 and once again exceed the number of unemployed.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Openings edged up 9,000 but to the highest level since May 2024.
- However, hiring fell 45,000 for the third monthly decline in the past four months.
- Separations rose 63,000 with increases in both quits and layoffs.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings and Hiring Little Changed in May

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**Some inflation progress, but not enough**: The headline HICP in June for the largest monetary union economies have largely broken lower, with the exception of Spain. The German headline HICP fell by 0.1% in June after being flat in May. In France, the price index fell by 0.5% in June after growing by 0.3% in May. In Italy, the June index rose by 0.1% after rising by 0.3% in May. In Spain, June brought a 0.3% increase after a 0.2% increase in May.

**Core or ex-energy (Germany)**: The core inflation readings are available for Germany, Italy, and Spain. In the case of Germany, it's an index excluding energy only. June brought a 0.1% increase for the German index, a 0.1% decline for Italy's core index, and a 0.2% increase for Spain’s core measure. On balance, these are a good collection of results from the standpoint of the ECB that has an inflation target of 2% for the European Monetary Union as a whole, but no guidance for individual countries.

**Sequentially**: Sequentially, the headline inflation rate shows progress in Germany and France, while excesses are stubborn in Italy and Spain. Over 12 months, all the inflation rates are excessive, but France is only technically excessive and probably acceptable at 2.1% year-over-year. Germany's increase over 12 months is 2.4%, Italy's is 3.1%, and Spain’s is 3.6%. The progression of inflation from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months shows accelerations over six months compared to 12 months for France and Italy, while Germany and Spain show decelerations. However, Spain's six-month inflation rate is still 3.3%. Germany has dropped to 2.2%, France is at 3.3%, and Italy has jumped up to 5.5%. Over three months, the German headline inflation rate is zero and France has fallen to 2%, but in Italy’s headline pace has accelerated to 6.9% and Spain remains at 3.3%. These are all compounded rates of change over three months.

**Three-month trends are mixed**: None of this is really surprising since oil prices have been surging over the period and are now starting to decline. Over 12 months, the oil price is down by 22.6%; over six months, it’s down by 37% at an annual rate; and over three months, the oil price is flat. Much of this price action is still quite recent. These figures are for Brent crude measured in euros. Over three months, German inflation is flat for the headline HICP, while France’s inflation rate is down to 2%. In Italy, the three-month pace is 6.9%; in Spain it’s at 3.3%. Headline inflation still has a somewhat erratic performance over three months, although it's quite acceptable in Germany and France and quite not acceptable in Italy and Spain.

**Core inflation is lower but still too high**: Core inflation shows much more moderation because the behavior of energy prices leaves core inflation largely unaffected. If the core is affected, it occurs only after a more substantial knock-on effects from other industries. German ex-energy inflation is at 2.3% over 12 months and then settles down to a 2% annualized pace over six months and three months. Italian core inflation is golden on all three periods, at 1.5% over 12 months, down to 1.4% over six months, and down to 1.2% over three months. Spain's core inflation is excessive, although it is making progress toward a more agreeable rate from a European standpoint. Spain’s core inflation is 2.9% over 12 months, remains at 2.9% over six months, then decelerates to a 2.4% annualized rate over three months. 

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**Policy**: The ECB has already started to raise rates and warned that there could be more ahead, depending on circumstances. However, we are seeing signs here that inflation is beginning to behave, particularly for the core measures. We could see the headlines improve more dramatically if oil prices continue to drop as they have been. Growth in the European area has been mixed on the continent; in the United Kingdom, growth is showing signs of weakening as the U.K. inflation rate has dropped rather sharply.

**Outlook**: The outlook is still guarded. There continues to be a war in Ukraine and unsettled conditions in the Middle East, including concerns over the Strait of Hormuz where Iran continues to say that it wants to be in control of traffic through the Strait. That position doesn't seem likely to be palatable to the U.S, although time will tell what kind of deal, if any, emerges from that conflict. Inflation developments are going to depend importantly on what happens with oil and how open the Strait becomes. As we can see, Germany and Italy already present relatively controlled core inflation rates. The rest of the monetary union should follow suit as all prices should continue to behave and follow oil prices lower. It has been a long period with inflation misbehaving. The core and ex-energy inflation statistics show us that over the last five years, Germany has had a compounded ex-energy inflation rate of 3.8%, Italy 3.1%, and Spain 3.9%. These are readings excluding energy and over that five-year period. Oil and energy are not the only price concerns. Energy prices had a compounded annual rate increase of 9.7% over the last five years. Monetary policy has gotten far behind where it's supposed to be and has allowed prices to rise far more than they should have. Central banks need to pay more attention to hitting their inflation targets in the future; they can't keep missing to this extent and convince anybody that they have a viable credible inflation target at 2%.

Large EU Economies Show Some Inflation Cooling

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Headline indexes for the European Monetary Union improved in June to a reading of 95.0 from 93.7 in May. The index had been stronger at 96.4 in March; however, it fell to 93.3 in April, recovered slightly to 93.7 in May, and has now reached 95.0. While still below its March high, the index has made progress in the wake of the outbreak of war-like conditions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

**Sector performance**
The industrial reading for the sector, at -8, has a 36.3 percentile standing, which better than the headline index for the Monetary Union with a 25.4 percentile standing. The EMU-wide sector index, consumer confidence, improved to a net diffusion reading of -17.7 in June from -19 in May, but that still leaves it with a very weak 8.1 percentile standing, the lowest among sector readings. Retailing improved to a net diffusion reading of -10 in June from -11 in May and posted a 38.1 percentile standing. The construction sector deteriorated, falling back to -5 from -4 in May; it has been undergoing steady degradation since at least March, but it still has a 68.4 percentile standing. It is the only sector with a percentile standing above 50, placing it above its historic median. The services sector had a net diffusion reading of +3, identical to its May reading and has a 24-percentile standing.

**Sector index ranking**
The sector readings clearly show that the monetary union is exhibiting a number of sectors with subpar growth; beyond ‘subpar,’ many are quite weak. The exception is—and has been for some time—the construction sector, which continues to perform above average and post an above-median metric. It is, perhaps surprising that we often think of consumer confidence as being relatively forward-looking, but in this schematic, consumer confidence is the weakest of the sectors; in fact, like statistics from the U.S., we find the same prevailing situation with consumer readings exceptionally weak. These weak consumer readings coexist with much stronger retailing readings and stronger industrial readings, although both of those are below their historic medians in Europe. This report is a sort of gut check for what consumer confidence means; it may not be as important as we used to think it was. Although the business cycle at this juncture seems to be concentrated more on the supply side and on recovery in the business community, that effect compounded by the influence of AI is much stronger in the U.S. than in Europe.

**Country detail – Large economies**
The country detail shows 16 of 20 early reporting countries with only one of the top four countries showing a decline month-to-month, and that's France. France recorded a 0.2% decline in June, while Germany posted a 1.9% increase, Italy gained 1.3%, and Spain rose 0.7%. Spain had the lone small decrease in May, while in April all of the large countries showed significant monthly declines in their overall indexes in the wake of the onset of the war with Iran.

**Smaller economies in EMU**
Apart from the Big Four economies, 12 other EMU members report in June; of those, 5 showed month-to-month declines in their country level indexes. This was up from three showing declines in May, although it was a vast improvement from April, when all of the country indexes turned negative and generated substantial month-to-month declines, except for Slovakia and Lithuania.

**Big Four economy rankings**
Among the Big Four economies, the strongest ranking reading in June is Spain at a 52.3 percentile standing, followed by Italy at a 41.6 percentile standing, France at a 22.7 percentile standing, and Germany at an 18.7 percentile standing.

**Other economy rankings**
Among the other 12 countries, the percentile standing readings range from a high of 76.1% for Greece to a low of 9.3% for Austria. Five of 12 of the smaller EMU members have percentile standings of 50% or greater, putting them above their historic medians, while the other 7 have rankings that range from a high of 44.6% in Portugal to a low of 9.3% in Austria.

**Summing up**
Conditions in the monetary union have improved over the last two months after a substantial stumble in the wake of the war in the Middle East with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the rebound in the European recovery is in gear; it is slow and measured. Conditions are still weak on balance.

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EU Indexes Show European Improvement in June

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) widened markedly to $77.6 billion in May from a downwardly revised $54.6 billion in April (previously -$55.9 billion), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a deficit of $78.6 billion. The goods deficit widened to $106.5 billion in May, the largest monthly shortfall since March 2025 when imports flooded in ahead of expected tariff increases, from a downwardly revised $82.9 billion in April (previously -$83.7 billion) while the services surplus widened to $28.9 billion in May from an upwardly revised $28.3 billion in April (previously +$27.8 billion).

The real (inflation-adjusted) trade deficit in goods widened to $100.0 billion (2017$) in May from an unrevised $84.3 billion in April. The April/May average is considerably higher than the Q1 average although some of this reflects a decline in exports of nonmonetary gold and other precious metals that are not included in the calculation of GDP. Still, the May report implies that net exports will once again subtract from overall GDP growth in Q2. They subtracted 0.37%-point in Q1.

Exports of goods and services fell 3.2% m/m (+12.6% y/y) in May following an upwardly revised 3.0% monthly increase in April (previously +2.6% m/m). This was the first monthly decline in exports since last December. Goods exports (Census basis) slumped 5.3% m/m (+15.1% y/y) led by outsized declines in exports of nonmonetary gold and other precious metals. In dollar terms, goods exports declined $11.6 billion in May. A $7.5 billion decline in exports of nonmonetary gold and other precious metals accounted for 65% of that decline. However, exports of capital goods ex autos (-4.9% m/m) and nonfood consumer goods ex autos exports (-9.1% m/m) were also very weak. Service exports edged up 0.7% m/m (6.6% y/y) in May following a 0.1% monthly rise in April. Travel service exports rebounded 2.4% m/m in May after having declined in both March and April. Transport exports rose 1.1% m/m in May, their third consecutive monthly gain. Over the past three months, transport exports have increased 6.7%.

Imports of goods and services increased 3.3% m/m (13.3% y/y) in May for their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Over the four months to May, imports rose 11.7%. Goods imports (Census basis) jumped 4.0% m/m (15.3% y/y) in May after a 1.9% monthly gain in April. Imports rose in every major end-use category in May, led by a 10.3% m/m jump in “other” imports, a 6.3% m/m rise in auto imports, a 6.2% m/m increase in nonfood consumer goods imports ex autos, and a 5.8% m/m rise in industrial supplies imports. Service imports increased 0.3% m/m (5.1% y/y) in May, slowing from a 1.6% monthly gain in April. Performance varied meaningfully across end-use categories. Imports of insurance services rose 1.4% m/m, their sixth consecutive monthly rise. Imports of personal and recreational services increased 1.1% m/m in May. Imports of financial services rose 0.6% m/m. By contrast, imported maintenance and repairs services slumped 3.9% m/m, their second monthly decline in the past three months. Imported intellectual property fell 0.3% m/m, their fourth monthly decline in the past five months. Imports of transport services declined 0.4% m/m, their fourth monthly decrease in the past five months.

By country, the goods trade deficit with China widened to $14.5 billion in May from $12.0 billion in April. The trade deficit with the European Union widened to $9.3 billion in May from $7.2 billion in April. The trade deficit with Japan declined to $2.0 billion in May from $2.8 billion in April.

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The deficit in goods and services widened to $77.6 billion in May from $54.6 billion in April.
- Exports slumped 3.2% m/m, led by an outsized fall in exports of nonmonetary gold and other precious metals.
- Imports increased by 3.3% m/m with increases in each major end-use category.
- The goods deficit widened to $106.5 billion, while the services surplus widened to $28.9 billion.

U.S. Trade Deficit Widened Markedly in May

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<br></br>

**ENERGY** → Country-Sourced Statistics → **China** → Gas Consumption

Natural gas consumption statistics for China were added to the **ENERGY** database. These monthly series complement the annual data available from the China National Bureau of Statistics (CNBS) and allow for more current consumption insights. Monthly levels, YTD series, and growth rates are included on this table. Data are sourced from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and start in September 2022.

Chart: China's natural gas consumption has skyrocketed since 2000, growing from roughly 25 billion cubic meters (bcm) to an estimated 431 bcm in 2025. This transformation has been driven by rapid economic development, massive infrastructure builds, and government initiatives to replace coal to reduce air pollution. However, consumption outpaces local extraction, making China one of the world's largest importers of both pipeline gas and LNG.

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<br></br>

**AGRI** → **Australia** → Livestock Slaughtered

Livestock statistics for Australia were added to the **AGRI** database. Available concepts include livestock slaughtered in units, gross value of livestock slaughtered, and meat produced in MT. Detail is available by type of animal and by region. Quarterly and annual adjusted and unadjusted data are sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and start as early as 1972.

Chart: Australia’s cattle slaughter is currently at record levels, registering 2.4 million head in Q1, driven by a stark regional divide. Persistent and severe dry conditions have hit major southern producing states, particularly NSW and Victoria. Confronted with dwindling feed and water, southern producers are being forced to offload their stock resulting in slaughter levels at or near all-time highs. Conversely and despite destocking in the south, favorable seasonal conditions and solid pasture growth across Queensland in the north is keeping cattle availability high, and thus slaughter rates.

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Featured Data Additions, June 30, 2026

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The U.S. ISM Services PMI edged down to 54.0 in June, the third m/m decline in four months, following a 0.9-point increase to 54.5 in May, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management, indicating expansion in the services sector for the 24th straight month, albeit at a slightly slower pace. The June index, while above 50.8 in June 2025 and a low of 49.4 in June 2024, remained below its recent high of 56.1 in February and a record-high 67.5 in November 2021. The 12-month average was 53.1, pointing to continued growth in the U.S. services sector. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had also expected 54.0 for June.

Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing reading. This index slipped to 53.9 in June after a 0.9-point increase to 54.4 in May, signaling expansion for the 13th consecutive month but at a slightly slower rate. The latest reading was above 50.6 in June 2025 and a low of 49.3 in June 2024, while remaining below a record-high 66.7 in November 2021. These series date back to July 1997.

In the latest services survey, the business activity index fell to 55.4 in June following a 1.8-point rise to 57.7 in May, indicating continued expansion in business activity for 24 months in a row, though at the slowest pace since March. The index was above a low of 50.0 in June 2024 but below a peak of 70.9 in November 2021. In June, 24.3% of respondents (NSA) reported higher activity while 14.5% reported an activity decline. The new orders index decreased to 55.1 in June after a 3.8-point gain to 57.3 in May, reflecting expansion in new orders for the 13th successive month but at a slower pace. The index was above a low of 47.2 in May 2025 but below a high of 61.0 in February 2023 and a record-high 69.2 in October 2021. In June, 25.9% of respondents (NSA) reported higher new orders while 17.1% reported declines. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index (NSA) fell to 54.4 in June from 55.2 in May, indicating slower supplier delivery performance for the 19th straight month after one month in faster territory in November 2024.

On the labor front, the employment index recovered to 51.2 in June from 47.9 in May, showing employment activity in the services sector expanded for the first time since February. The latest reading was above a low of 43.5 in December 2023 but below a high of 54.1 in June 2023 and a peak of 58.9 in April 2021. An increased 16.0% of respondents (NSA) indicated higher employment in June while 10.9% reported declines.

On the inflation front, the prices index fell to a still-elevated 67.7 in June from 71.3 in May, indicating prices paid by services organizations for materials and services had risen (i.e., above 50) since June 2017 but at the slowest rising pace in four months. The index was above a low of 53.9 in March 2024 but significantly below a peak of 83.7 in March 2022. In June, 40.7% of respondents (NSA) reported higher prices while only 3.8% reported price declines.

Additionally, the new export orders index edged up to 50.4 in June from a neutral 50.0 in May, showing new export orders expanded for the fourth time in five months, while the imports index fell to 49.4 from 51.1, marking the first contraction since January. The inventories index dropped to 51.2 in June from 62.5 in May (the highest level since May 2010), indicating inventories expanded for the fifth successive month. The inventory sentiment index fell to 52.6 in June from 55.2 in May, showing continued expansion since May 2023. The backlog of orders index rebounded to 54.9 in June from 51.3 in May, registering the fifth consecutive month of expansion following 11 straight months of contraction. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector; below 50 suggests contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

- ISM Services PMI down to 54.0 in June, remaining above the 12-month avg. of 53.1.
- Business Activity (55.4) expands for the 24th consecutive mth.; New Orders (55.1) for the 13th straight mth.; Employment (51.2, first expansion since Feb.); Supplier Deliveries (54.4 vs. 55.2).
- Prices Index (67.7) at a four-month low, still indicating prices rising since June ’17.

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