Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

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DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

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Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

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Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Rising US long-term real yields point to strong demand for investment funding

Michael J. Moran

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The price index for personal consumption expenditures, the inflation measure targeted by the Federal Reserve, fell 0.1% in June, led by a drop of 5.9% in the energy component. The decline pushed the year-over-year increase to 3.7%, down from 4.1% in May but still above readings of 2.9% in January and February, before the Iran conflict became a factor.

The drop in the energy component would be more encouraging were it not for the re-escalation of fighting with Iran and renewed pressure on oil prices. The average prices of crude oil and gasoline in July are likely to be below those in June, raising the prospect of another drop in the energy component of the PCE price index. However, prices near the end of the month climbed above the June average, leaving upside risks for August.

While the energy component dominated the change in the headline price index, other items also were restrained. Food prices rose 0.3%, although they almost rounded down to 0.2% (0.253%) and the monthly change was comfortably within the range of the past few years. The core index (excluding food and energy) rose only 0.1%, matching the lightest readings in the post-pandemic period (although a few observations were smaller if rounded to more than one decimal point). The core index has risen 3.3% in the past year, down from 3.4% in May, but still far above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%.

The Fed pays close attention to a subcomponent of the core index (services excluding energy and housing), which has been responsible for much of the advance in the core index in recent years. This measure, too, was restrained in June (0.1%), but the year-over-year change of 3.8% remained near the top of the range of the past two years.

Personal income rose 0.2% in June, with employee compensation, non-farm proprietors’ income, and dividends all posting favorable results. The increase translated into a gain of 0.3% after adjusting for inflation, following an advance of 0.2% in May. The back-to-back increases are notable in that they perhaps signal the end of a soft patch that began in the closing months of 2025. The growth of real personal income slipped into negative territory in March, influenced by the surge in energy prices, but growth had been decelerating since October of last year and had slipped to a pace of less than 1.0% before the conflict with Iran became a factor. Results in the past two months suggest that real income growth might be returning to a firm path.

Real income growth in the past two months certainly supported spending by households, as real consumption expenditures rose 0.4% in both May and June. For the second quarter, the GDP report published today showed annual growth of 3.2%, a brisk pace. Moreover, the firm results at the end of the quarter brighten prospects for the third quarter. With real outlays in June already above the average for Q2, the summer quarter is likely to show a higher average than that in Q2. Indeed, even if real PCE remains unchanged over the July-September period, the average for Q3 would translate to real PCE growth of approximately 2.0% (annual rate).

The active spending by consumers has provided solid support for the economy, but it has come at the expense of an eroding saving rate. The saving rate averaged 5.5% in 2023 and 2024, peaking at 6.4% in January 2024. Deceleration since then left the saving rate at 2.7% in June. One could put either a positive or negative spin on the downward trend. An optimist could argue that wealth gains from the stock market are allowing many households to live the high life. Others might counter that affordability issues leave households with little ability to save. These explanations for a low saving rate are not mutually exclusive; both are likely having an influence.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- (Temporary?) relief on price pressures
- Respectable income gain and active spending by consumers

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in June

Sandy Batten

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Real GDP grew 1.5% q/q saar in Q2 following a 2.1% increase in Q1, according to the Advance release from the BEA. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 2.3% quarterly gain. Compared with a year ago, GDP was up 2.1%. The slightly subpar performance in the second quarter was due mostly to significant drags exerted by trade and inventory investment. A 11.5% quarterly surge in imports widened the trade deficit markedly resulting in net exports subtracting 1.0%-point from overall growth. Inventory investment declined $50.8 billion (2017$) in Q2, subtracting 0.7%-point. This was the fifth consecutive quarter in which inventories declined, a very unusual occurrence when the economy is not in a recession.

Personal consumption expenditures and business spending on equipment and intellectual property provided much of the boost to overall GDP growth in Q2. PCE grew 3.2% q/q saar in Q2, accounting for 2.1%-points of overall GDP growth, after a tepid 0.5% quarterly increase in Q1. The Q2 rebound was led by a 5.2% quarterly jump in spending on goods (a 6.8% rise in spending on durables and a 4.4% increase in spending on nondurables) although spending on services rose a solid 2.2%. Larger-than-normal income tax refunds this year likely played a key role in the rebound in PCE in Q2.

Business spending on equipment posted a second consecutive double-digit quarterly gain in Q2, increasing 15.2% on top of a 15.8% quarterly gain in Q1. Business spending on intellectual property increased a solid 8.8% in Q2 though a slowdown from the 13.8% quarterly jump in Q1, due mostly to a slowdown in spending on software. Together, these two added 1.3%-points to total GDP growth. Surprisingly, residential construction added marginally to GDP growth in Q2, posting its first quarterly gain in six quarters. It edged up 1.5% q/q and contributed just 0.1%-point to total GDP growth.

In addition to the drags from weaker inventory investment and a wider trade deficit, business construction spending and federal government spending also subtracted from Q2 GDP growth. In sharp contrast to the strength of business spending on equipment and intellectual property, business construction spending fell 5.0% q/q in Q2, its tenth consecutive quarterly decline, and subtracted 0.1%-point from total growth. Building of data centers has been vigorous, but softness in offices and manufacturing facilities has dwarfed the strength in this relatively new area.

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Total government spending fell 0.8% q/q in Q2 after a 4.4% rebound in Q1, subtracting 0.1%-point from overall growth. A 12.8% q/q slump in federal government nondefense spending accounted for the decline in total government spending. Federal defense spending rose 2.4% and state and local government spending increased 1.1%. Federal defense spending most likely will pick up further in coming quarters because of the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Led by the solid gains in personal consumption expenditures and business spending, domestic demand posted stellar growth in Q2. Real final sales to domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory investment and net exports) increased a well above trend 3.1% q/q saar in Q2 after a 2.2% quarterly increase in Q1. Compared to a year ago, this measure of domestic demand was up 2.2%. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers (the Fed’s preferred measure of domestic demand) jumped 3.9% q/q in Q2, its largest quarterly gain since Q1 2023, to be up 2.6% from a year ago.

As was generally expected given the surge in energy prices following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict in early March, the GDP price index jumped 6.2% q/q saar in Q2 after rising 3.6% in Q1, reflecting an 87% annualized rise in energy prices. The PCE price index also reflected the jump in energy prices, rising 5.1% q/q in Q2 versus 4.6% in Q1. The performance of the core GDP and PCE price indexes (that is, excluding food and energy prices) was less worrisome. The core GDP price index was up 4.4% in Q2 versus a 3.2% quarterly gain in Q1. However, core PCE price inflation slowed to 3.4% in Q2 from 4.4% in Q1.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The quarterly gain was led by personal consumption and business spending on equipment and intellectual property.
- Inventory investment and net exports were meaningful drags on overall growth.
- Domestic demand growth accelerated to well above trend.
- Reflecting the jump in energy prices after the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, GDP inflation accelerated markedly.

U.S. GDP Increased 1.5% in Q2

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 9,000 to 197,000 in the week ending July 25, from 188,000 in the week ending July 18, revised from 187,000. The four-week average was 202,750 in the July 25 week, down from 207,750 in the July 18 week. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 205,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—declined by 7,000 to 1.782 million in the week ending July 18, from 1.789 million in the week ending July 11, revised from 1.796 million. The four-week moving average declined to 1.798 million in the July 18 week, from 1.804 million in the July 11 week, revised from 1.805. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2% in the week of July 18.

The insured unemployment rate varies greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending July 11, the highest unemployment rates were in Oregon (2.04%), Minnesota (2.11%), Massachusetts (2.15%), Rhode Island (2.33%), Puerto Rico (2.55%) and New Jersey (2.65%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.28%), Florida (0.33%), Louisiana (0.42%), North Carolina (0.41%), Alabama (0.45%), and Arkansas (0.48%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.91%), New York (1.74%), Pennsylvania (1.69%), Illinois (1.58%), and Texas (1.11%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims rose by 9,000 to 197,000 in the week of July 25, after reaching their lowest level since 1969 in the July 18 week.
- Continuing claims declined by 7,000 to 1.782 million in the week ending July 18.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of July 18.


U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Rose in the Week of July 25

Robert Brusca

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GDP in the second quarter accelerated for most of the countries in the monetary union. The overall figure for the EMU improved to 1.8% as an annualized quarter-over-quarter gain from 0% in the first quarter and 0.8% in the fourth quarter. Among the 8 early reporters of GDP, there was a deceleration in Italy, Germany, and Belgium, while the other five countries showed an increase in their growth rates in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

The four largest monetary union economies showed a technical weakening, but at the one-digit level, growth was 1.1% in the second quarter, the same as in the first quarter. The rest of the monetary union saw an increase in growth from -2.9% annualized in the first quarter to a gain of 3.7% at an annualized rate in the second quarter, a huge shift.

On a year-over-year basis, growth rates improved for all but three countries: Belgium, France, and Spain. For Spain, the year-over-year growth rate was unchanged at 2.7% in the second quarter. For France, the growth decelerated from 0.8% in the first quarter to 0.7% in the second quarter; for Belgium, the growth rate slowed from 0.8% to 0.5%.

The overall monetary union growth rate rose to 1% in the second quarter compared to a 0.5% increase in the first quarter. The four largest economies showed stronger growth at 1.1% year-over-year compared to 1% last quarter, while the rest of the monetary union showed a GDP gain of 0.5% compared to a year-over-year decline of 0.9% in the first quarter.

Evaluating growth over a longer timeline, three early-reporting monetary union members have standings in their growth rates above their respective 50th percentiles. Those countries are Portugal at 69.6%, Italy at 60.9%, and Spain at 51.1%.

The four largest monetary union economies, pooled together, have a growth ranking year-over-year in their 43.5 percentile. The rest of the monetary union has a growth ranking at the 25th percentile. From this, we can conclude that most of the growth has come from the four large economies, even though in the current quarter it's the smaller economies that seem to be performing much better.

On these same timelines, the United States posted a weaker quarterly growth rate in the second quarter at 1.5%, compared to 2.1% in the first quarter. U.S. growth at 2.1% year-over-year is slower than its 2.7% year-over-year growth rate in the first quarter; it has a queue-percentile standing of its growth rate on data back to 2001 in its 37.5 percentile, a standing well below its historic median for the period. U.S. consumer spending held up pretty well in Q2 and business investment spending remained strong, but the trade account did a turnaround and sucked a lot of life out of the growth rate in the second quarter, keeping the U.S. economy as an important driver of global growth.

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Europe

European GDP Improves in Q2

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Mortgage applications dropped 6.4% w/w (+0.6% y/y) in the week ending July 24, after rising 1.9% w/w (3.3% y/y) in the week ending July 17, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 3.6% w/w (+2.7% y/y) in the latest week, after rising 5.5% w/w (0.4% y/y) in the July 17 week.  Applications for loan refinancing plummeted another 9.9% w/w (-2.2% y/y) in the July 24 week, following a decline of 2.4% w/w (+7.3% y/y) in the week ending July 17.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 9bps to 6.96% in the week ending July 24 from 6.87% in the week ending July 17. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 10bps to 6.36% in the July 24 week from 6.26% in the July 17 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate jumped 28bps to 6.85% in the latest week after dropping 20bps to 6.57% in the July 17 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose 6bps to 6.44% in the July 24 week from 6.38% in the July 17 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan declined to 39.5% of total applications in the week of July 24 from 41.2% in the July 17 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.1% in the July 24 week from 7.7% in the July 17 week.

The average size of a mortgage edged up 0.3% w/w (2.8% y/y) to $384,700 in the week of July 24, after rising 1.1% w/w to $383,700 in the week ending July 17. The average size of a purchase loan edged up 0.4% w/w (3.8% y/y) to $445,400 in the July 24 week, after rising 0.4% w/w to $443,800 in the July 17 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 2.0% w/w (-0.9% y/y) to $291,800 in the week ended July 24, following a small rise of 0.2% w/w to $297,900 in the week ending July 17. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose 9bps to 6.96%. 
- Average loan size edged up.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Declined in the July 24 Week

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The Conference Board’s index of Consumer Confidence fell 1.4 points to 90.8 in July from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June (previously 91.2). The overall index has generally trended down from a reading of 112.8 in November 2024. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a reading of 92.3 in July. The July decline was due entirely to a gloomier view of present conditions. The Present Situation index fell to 114.9 in July from 118.5 in June, the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since February 2021. By contrast, the Expectations index was unchanged at 74.7. The survey period for today’s report was July 1-22.

The pessimism over the state of the economy was markedly larger in the under 35 years age group with confidence dropping to 100.7 in July, the lowest reading since January 2021, from 114.1 in June. Confidence also fell in the over 55 years age group, but by much less, slipping to 76.8 from 79.7. By contrast, confidence in the 35-55 years age group jumped up to 97.6 from 90.4 in June, the highest reading since last October.

Notwithstanding the breakdown of the Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran during July, inflation expectations for the year ahead fell for the third consecutive month to 4.5% in July from 4.9% in June and 5.3% in April, which had reflected the initial escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Inflation expectations had soared to a recent high of 5.9% in April 2025 after significant tariff increases were announced. Prior to the pandemic, inflation expectations were generally around 4%.

Assessment of labor market conditions softened further in July as indicated by a further decline in the labor market differential (the percentage of respondents who think that jobs are plentiful minus the percentage who think that jobs are hard to get). Respondents still have a slightly favorable view of the labor market as the percentage thinking jobs are plentiful (24.6%) still exceeds the percentage thinking that jobs are hard to get (21.5%). However, that differential slumped to 3.1% in July from 3.8% in June and 5.0% in May. This was the lowest reading since February 2021. The correlation between the labor market differential and the BLS’s unemployment rate over the past 15 years has been -0.78. Thus, the recent decline in the labor market differential points to increases in the overall unemployment rate.

Respondents generally felt that business conditions had deteriorated in July with the percentage considering conditions to be good falling to 18.9% from 20.2% in June while the percentage considering conditions to be bad increasing to 17.8% from 16.5% in June. Furthermore, the respondents expressed similar feelings about the coming six months with the percentage expecting business conditions to improve falling to 17.8% from 18.9% in June while the percentage expecting conditions to worsen rose to 21.1% from 20.7%.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence fell to 90.8 in July from 92.2 in June, continuing its downtrend since early last year.
- The Present Situation index fell to 114.9, its lowest reading since February 2021. The Expectations index was unchanged at 74.7.
- Inflation expectations one year ahead fell to 4.5% in July from 4.9%.
- The labor market differential fell to 3.1% in July, its lowest level since February 2021, from 3.8%, pointing to further softening of labor market conditions.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Continues Downtrend in July

Winnie Tapasanun

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The U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to a larger-than-expected $101.46 billion in June after widening to $105.89 billion in May (the largest since March 2025), according to the advance estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau. The June reading marked the second narrowing in the goods trade deficit in three months, still exceeding an $84.17 billion shortfall in June 2025. A deficit of $99.0 billion for June had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a low of $61.44 billion in October 2025 (the smallest since February 2020) and a record high of $158.73 billion in March 2025. On a quarterly basis, the deficit averaged $96.53 billion in Q2'26, the largest since Q1'25, versus $81.96 billion in Q1'26.

Total goods exports declined 1.8% m/m (+14.8% y/y) to $204.70 billion in June, the lowest level since January, following a 5.3% drop to $208.50 billion in May and a 4.1% gain to a record-high $220.11 billion in April. However, exports were up 25.9% from a June 2023 low. The m/m decline in exports in June reflected drops of 4.4% (+31.3% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 3.1% (+11.5% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, 2.8% (+12.3% y/y) in other goods, and 1.1% (+10.9% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos. To the upside, exports of automotive vehicles & parts (+5.1%; -0.5% y/y) and nonfood consumer goods excluding autos (+3.2%; -7.2% y/y) rose m/m in June.

Total goods imports fell 2.6% m/m (+16.6% y/y) to $306.17 billion in June, the first monthly fall since January, after a 4.0% rise to $314.40 billion in May (the highest level since the March 2025 record high of $340.11 billion). Nevertheless, imports were up 22.1% from a March 2023 low. The m/m fall in imports in June was broad-based across all end-use categories, led by a 6.3% drop (+16.3% y/y) in other goods, followed by declines of 3.8% (-0.3% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 2.5% (+1.9% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, 2.5% (-1.3% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, 2.0% (+37.4% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 1.9% (+15.0% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Deficit: $101.46 bil. in June, down $4.43 bil. (-4.2%) from May’s $105.89 bil.
- Exports -1.8%, second straight m/m decline to a five-month low, driven by a 4.4% drop in exports of industrial supplies & materials.
- Imports -2.6%, first m/m decrease since Jan., w/ all end-use import categories down, led by drops of 6.3% in other goods and 3.8% in nonauto consumer goods.

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows in June from May’s 14-Month High

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Household confidence in France improved in July, rising to 86.4 from 84.3 in June. Confidence was last higher in March, and the average for confidence over the last 12 months is 87.7. The July value, despite its climb, is still below that average; confidence is still weak in a historic context. According to data back to 2001, the current confidence metric in July has a 16.2 percentile ranking, an extremely weak reading. The mean of confidence readings back to 2001 is 95.1. The July reading is nearly nine points below that.

**Weak but improved living standards readings**: Living standards in July improved slightly compared to June. The assessment of the last 12 months is -79 compared to -81 previously. However, the 12-month average is a rating of -74; the July reading is still short of that. Looking to the next 12 months, living standards are expected to improve; the reading of -59 in July compares to -65 logged a month ago. It compares to a 12-month average of -61. The expectation for living standards over the next 12 months is higher than it has been on average for the last 12 months, although the reading itself is still quite weak. The standing in its 10th percentile for a current rating at -59 is below its full-period average of -38.

**Fewer unemployment worries**: Unemployment over the next 12 months is expected to be less of a concern, but the reading in July drops to 55 from 61 in June; however, the July reading is still above the 12-month average of 52. The ranking for unemployment concerns has a 72nd percentile standing, putting it in the top third of its historic range of readings.

**Inflation fears drop, comparatively**: Price developments show that over the past 12 months inflation has been a concern, with the July reading falling relative to June to 17 from 22, but this reading is much higher than its 12-month average of +2. However, looking to the next 12 months, the July reading is -33 compared to -15 in June, and it compares to -20 on average over the last 12 months. Inflation expectations are for conditions to show weaker inflation pressures. The ranking of the July reading is at its 44th percentile, below its historic median; the medians on rankings occur at a ranking of 50. Of course, all these readings will be dependent on how oil prices evolve.

**Saving/spending**: Both the favorability and the ability to save improved in July compared to June; both readings in July are above their respective 12-month averages. The rankings of these observations are around their high 90th percentiles; for the favorability to save, the reading is the highest in the whole period back to June 2001. The ability to save is often not a good reading but rather one that reflects consumer defensiveness, and we see that as we move to the next metric, the favorability to make a major purchase. In July, that reading improved to -36 from -38 in June, but it's weaker than its 12-month average of -31.8. In historic context, it's extremely weak and has an 8.3 percentile standing. So, the favorability to make a major purchase is in the lower 10th percentile of all monthly observations back to June 2001, indicating considerable consumer defensiveness.

**Financial situation**: The financial situations over the past 12 months and projected over the next 12 months show slightly improved readings compared to June. The past 12 months reading is weaker than its 12-month average, while the expectation for the next 12 months is the same as its 12-month average. The rankings of the two financial situations are just below their respective 40th percentiles, placing them about 10 percentile points below their historic medians.

**Summing up**
The consumer in France sees some improvement in July, and conditions remain mixed across these various components. But most of the rankings for the components are quite weak, with the exception being concerns about unemployment and the favorability to save, which was a defensive reading. The weighting scheme for this survey gives us a slightly more positive read on the month, but it's clear that the French consumers are still concerned about economic conditions and the future.

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France

French Household Confidence Improves

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The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a higher-than-expected 55.6 in July following a 0.7-point decline to 53.3 in June, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management. The July reading, above the 50 expansion-contraction threshold, indicated the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the seventh consecutive month and at the fastest pace since May 2022. A reading of 53.8 for July had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest manufacturing PMI, while above a contraction-level 48.4 in July 2025 and a low of 47.0 in October 2024, remained below a peak of 63.8 in March 2021.

The production index rebounded to 58.5 in July from 52.2 in June, indicating production expanded for the ninth straight month and at the strongest pace since November 2021. The index was above a low of 44.8 in April 2025 but below a peak of 66.5 in March 2021. In July, 25.1% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while 10.4% reported lower production. The new orders index increased to 56.7 in July from 56.0 in June, signaling new orders grew for the seventh consecutive month following four successive months of contraction. The index remained well above a low of 41.8 in January 2023 but below a high of 67.0 in May 2021. In July, 25.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 14.2% reported declines. The inventories index slipped to 51.2 in July from 51.4 in June, marking the second month of expansion following 13 months of contraction. The index was slightly below a high of 52.7 in March 2025 but above a low of 43.8 in October 2024. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index rose to 58.9 in July from 57.4 in June, indicating slowing delivery performance for the eighth straight month after faster deliveries in November 2025. In July, 21.3% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while 3.5% reported faster speeds.

On the labor front, the employment index advanced to 52.8 in July from 49.7 in June, showing employment expanded for the first time since September 2023 and at the highest level since August 2022. The index was above a low of 44.1 in November 2025 but below a high of 56.5 in March 2022. In July, 16.3% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 13.3% reported lower hiring.

On the pricing front, the prices paid index declined to a still-high 71.1 (NSA) in July following a 9.1-point drop to 73.0 in June, indicating raw materials prices rose for the 22nd consecutive month but at the slowest rising pace since February. The index remained well above a low of 39.4 in December 2022 but below a high of 87.1 in March 2022 and a peak of 92.1 in June 2021. In July, 50.2% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while 8.1% reported price declines.

In other ISM series not included in the composite index, the new export orders index rebounded to 53.0 in July from 48.5 in June, indicating new export orders grew for the second time in three months and at the highest level since March 2022. The index was up from a low of 40.1 in May 2025 but down from a peak of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index climbed to 55.7 in July from 52.9 in June, suggesting imports expanded for the sixth successive month and at the strongest rate since June 2021. The index was above a low of 39.9 in May 2025 but below a peak of 61.0 in June 2021. The order backlog index increased to 55.0 (NSA) in July from 50.5 in June, showing backlog levels grew for the seventh straight month and at the fastest pace since February. The index was below a high of 56.6 in February and a peak of 70.6 in May 2021 but well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- ISM Mfg. PMI up to 55.6 in July; seventh straight month above 50.
- Production (58.5) reaches highest level since Nov. ’21 and expands for the ninth consecutive mth.; new orders (56.7) for the seventh successive mth.
- Employment (52.8) above 50 for the first time since Sept. ’23; at highest level since Aug. ’22.
- Prices Index (71.1) at a five-month low, still indicating prices rising for the 22nd straight mth.
- Exports (53.0) highest since Mar. ’22; imports (55.7) highest since June ’21.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at Highest Level Since May ’22; New Orders, Production, and Employment Growing

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**EMERGEFM** → **Eswatini** → Production → Mineral Production

Mineral production statistics for Eswatini were added to the **EMERGEFM** database. Metrics for coal, quarried stone, iron ore and gold are available on this table. Quarterly data are sourced from the Central Bank of Eswatini and start in Q1 2003.

Chart: Despite having a relatively minor overall mining sector, Eswatini boasts a leading regional output of anthracite coal, which accounts for roughly 1% of global coal reserves. Anthracite is a highly valued grade of coal used extensively in the production of iron and steel. Eswatini mined 463k MT of anthracite coal in 2025 – down 5.9% from 2024, but up 321% since 2019. Almost all of it is exported to neighboring South Africa where it is primarily used as a specialized fuel in the metallurgical and steel industries.

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