Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

Tom Moeller

250701F5.jpg

250701G5.jpg

U.S. light vehicle sales dipped 0.5% (+2.4% y/y) to 15.65 million units (SAAR) in June after falling 8.8% to 15.73 million units in May. The retreat in June vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through May, which compared to 2.1% growth last year.

Sales declines were mixed last month. Light truck sales fell 0.4% (+4.9% y/y) during June to 12.97 million units (SAAR), after falling 8.9% to 13.02 million in May and weakening 1.7% in April to 14.29 million. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.8% (+4.6% y/y) to 9.99 million units, after falling 7.5% in May. Sales of imported light trucks rose 4.6% (5.7% y/y) to 2.97 million units, following a 14.5% fall during May.

Trucks’ record 83.0% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 82.8% in May and 80.8% in June of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales rose a slight 0.4% last month, down 8.5% y/y, to 2.69 million units (SAAR) following an 8.8% May decline. Purchases of domestically-produced cars were off 2.5% (-9.2% y/y) last month to 1.98 million units, after declining 8.6% in May. Sales of imported autos rose 9.2% (-6.6% y/y) to 0.71 million units, following a 12.2% May decline.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was increased from 22.2% in May. It compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market rose to 26.4% last month and compared to 25.9% in June of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market rose to 22.9% last month after falling to 21.8% in May.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

250701H5.jpg

250701I5.jpg

- Light truck sales ease while auto sales improve.
- Domestic sales tumble but imports increase.
- Imports' market share recovers May decline.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Slip in June

250701J20.jpg

250701K20.jpg

The ISM Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector improved to 49.0 in June from 48.5 during May and from 48.7 in April. The index stood below the recent high of 50.9 in January, but above a low of 46.9 in October of last year. A level of 50 is the break-even point between a rising and falling level of activity. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 49.6 for June. The series reached a monthly high of 63.8 in March 2021.

Of the five component indexes, two improved m/m. The June production index rose to 50.3 from 45.4 in May. It was the highest level in four months. Twenty one percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while 18.7% reported lower. The inventory series improved to 49.2 from 46.7 in May. Sixteen percent (NSA) of respondent reported higher inventories while 19.5% reported lower.

Offsetting these increases, the new orders series declined to 46.4 from 47.6 in May. It was below the high of 55.1 reached in January. Twenty-one percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 27.3% indicated lower. The employment series fell to 45.0 from 46.8 in May. It remained below a January high of 50.3. Ten percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 17.5% reported less. The supplier delivery series eased to 54.2 last month from 56.1 in May. Fifteen percent (NSA) of respondents indicated slower delivery speeds while 6.3% indicated faster speeds.

The prices index, which is not part of the composite series, improved to 69.7 (NSA) in June, and reversed its decline to 69.4 in May. It remained up from a December 2022 low of 39.4. An increased 45.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices last month, while a steady 6.3% reported lower prices.

In other series, the export orders reading surged to 46.3 in June from 40.1 in May. It remained below its high of 52.4 in January. The imports index also rose sharply to 47.4, reversing its decline to 39.0 in May. The order backlog reading declined to 44.3 (NSA) last month from 47.1 in May. It remained well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These indexes are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 points to contraction. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

250701L20.jpg

250701M20.jpg

- Reading remains below expansion level for fourth straight month.
- Production & inventory readings improve; new orders & employment weaken.
- Prices index remains near three-year high.

U.S. ISM Factory Index Edges Higher in June

Winnie Tapasanun

250701N25.jpg

250701O25.jpg

The value of construction put in place unexpectedly fell 0.3% m/m in May after revised declines of 0.2% in April (-0.4% initially) and 0.7% in March (-0.8% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The May reading was the seventh consecutive m/m fall. A 0.3% m/m May increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate was -3.5% in May following -2.8% in April, registering the fourth successive y/y decline and the deepest since May 2011 (-5.9% y/y). The latest y/y number compared to a positive 7.8% in May 2024; thus, having remained well below its recent high of 12.9% in December 2023 and a peak of 18.4% in April 2022. (Note: Today the Census Bureau released standard annual revisions along with May 2025 construction spending data. NSA series were revised back to 2023, and SA series were revised back to 2018.)

Private construction slid 0.5% (-5.4% y/y) in May, the ninth straight m/m slide, after decreases of 0.5% in April (-0.7% initially) and 1.1% in March (-1.0% previously). Residential private construction fell 0.5% (-6.7% y/y) in May, down for the fifth consecutive month, on top of a 0.5% fall in April (-0.9% initially). Single-family building fell 1.8% (-4.5% y/y), the third successive m/m fall, after a 1.5% April decline; it was 47.4% of the residential private construction. Home improvement building, however, rose 0.9% (-7.8% y/y) following a 0.7% April rise and three straight m/m decreases; it was 39.7% of the residential private construction. Meanwhile, multi-family building was virtually unchanged (-10.9% y/y) after a 0.1% April easing and three consecutive m/m increases; it was 12.9% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction fell 0.4% (-3.9% y/y) in May, down for the third successive month, after a 0.6% drop in April (-0.5% initially). The May fall reflected m/m declines in the following nonresidential private constructions. These included religious (-1.7%; +11.6% y/y), lodging (-1.3%; -8.3% y/y), transportation (-0.9%; -3.8% y/y), commercial (-0.8%; -12.0% y/y), utilities (-0.6%; +0.6% y/y), office (-0.2%; +0.8% y/y), educational (-0.1%; -4.3% y/y), and manufacturing (-0.1%; -3.8% y/y). To the upside, the following nonresidential private constructions rose m/m in May: health care (0.4%; -3.8% y/y), amusement & recreation (0.3%; -1.6% y/y), and communication (0.3%; -1.5% y/y).

The value of public construction edged up 0.1% (3.3% y/y) in May, the third straight m/m increase, after a 0.6% rise in April (+0.4% initially), reflecting a 1.4% gain (8.4% y/y) in residential public construction and no change (3.1% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. The following nonresidential public construction subcategories registered m/m gains in May. These included public safety (0.8%; 6.8% y/y), amusement & recreation (0.7%; 8.6% y/y), transportation (0.6%; 7.4% y/y), conservation & development (0.5%; 5.2% y/y), sewage & waste disposal (0.5%; 9.6% y/y), health care (0.4%; 15.1% y/y), and educational (0.2%; -0.3% y/y). In contrast, the following nonresidential public constructions fell m/m in May: commercial (-1.5%; +29.1% y/y), office (-0.5%; +2.1% y/y), water supply (-0.5%; +6.1% y/y), and utilities (-0.1%; -9.8% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which made up 28.0% of public construction spending, fell 0.3% (-0.3% y/y) in May, the first m/m fall since February, following a 0.9% increase in April.

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

250701P25.jpg

250701Q25.jpg

- Headline: -0.3% m/m, the seventh straight m/m fall; -3.5% y/y, the deepest y/y drop since May ’11.
- Residential private construction -0.5% m/m, led by a 1.8% fall in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.4% m/m, the third straight m/m slide.
- Public sector construction +0.1% m/m, led by a 1.4% gain in residential public building.

U.S. Construction Spending Registers a String of Declines in May

Sandy Batten

250701X.jpg

250701Y.jpg

Job openings jumped 374,000 (-1.7% y/y) in May to 7.769 million, the highest level since last November, versus 7.395 million in April, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The market consensus had expected a slight decline to 7.3 million in May. The job openings rate increased to 4.6% in May from 4.4% in April. This rate has fluctuated between 4.3% and 4.8% over the past year. The record high for this rate was 7.4% reached in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings. The number of openings in May was 532,000 higher than the number of people unemployed, an increase from 229,000 in April and 117,000 in March, pointing to a little less softening of labor-market conditions.

Private sector openings increased 374,000 (+1.2% y/y) to 6.936 million in May, the second consecutive monthly rise. This was the first y/y increase since July 2022. The private openings rate rose to 4.9% in May from 4.6% in April. The May increase in private openings was led by a 279,000 increase in leisure and hospitality openings, the first monthly gain in five months. Manufacturing saw a 22,000 increase in openings, only the second monthly increase in the past eight months. Openings in private educational and health services rose 47,000 in May on top of a 204,000 jump in April. Federal government openings slumped 39,000, the largest monthly decline since June 2024 while state and local government openings increased by 40,000.

Total hiring fell 112,000 (-1.3% y/y) to 5.503 million in My from 5.615 million in April. This was the first monthly decline in three months and the largest since last October. The hiring rate edged down to 3.4% in May from 3.5% in April. This rate has fluctuated between 3.3% and 3.5% for nearly a year. Private sector hiring declined 95,000 in May after having jumped 204,000 in April. The May decline was the first one in six months and was widely spread across sectors. New hiring in private educational and health services fell 83,000 in May; professional and business services hiring fell 47,000. In contrast, leisure and hospitality hiring rose 121,000, the third consecutive monthly increase. Government hiring fell 18,000 with declines in both federal and state & local government hiring.

Total separations fell 71,000 (-1.4% y/y) to 5.242 million in May from 5.313 million in April. The separation rate was unchanged at 3.3%, where it has been for the past four months. Quits rose 78,000 (-1.8% y/y) to 3.293 million in May from 3.215 million in April after falling 129,000 in April. Layoffs and discharges fell 188,000 (-3.8% y/y) to 1.601 million in May from 1.789 million in April, just short of offsetting a 199,000 increase in April. Other separations rose 40,000 (+18.7% y/y) to 349,000 in May from 309,000 in April. Total private separations fell 89,000 to 4.892 million in May with a 69,000 increase in private quits, a 202,000 decline in layoffs and a 45,000 increase in other separations.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Job openings increased 374,000 in May, the largest monthly gain since last November.
- Hiring fell 112,000, the largest monthly decline since last October.
- Separations fell 71,000, led by a 202,000 decline in layoffs.

JOLTS: Job Openings Jumped but Hiring Fell in May

250701C0.jpg

250701D0.jpg

Retail gasoline prices for all grades declined to an average $3.29 per gallon (-8.5% y/y) last week after rising to $3.34 in the prior week. Prices remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Its all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel eased to $3.73 per gallon (-2.3% y/y) in the week of June 30 after rising to $3.78 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $65.71 per barrel (-19.5% y/y) in the week ended June 27 as tensions in the Middle East eased. The decline more than reversed the prior week’s runup to $74.17 per barrel, but remained up from a low $59.04 low in the second week of May 2025. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $65.11 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude fell to $69.96 per barrel (-19.3% y/y) in the week of June 27 after rising to $78.25 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $68.15 per barrel.

Natural gas prices rose last week to an average $3.30 per mmbtu (31.0% y/y) in the week ended June 27, after increasing to an average $3.08/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $3.26 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand rose 0.2% y/y in the four weeks ending June 20 following a 0.9% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 1.6% y/y in the four weeks ending June 20 after a 0.3% y/y decline in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 0.9% y/y in the four weeks ending June 20 after a 0.9% y/y weakening in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories fell 2.5% y/y in the week ending June 20 after a 0.5% y/y decline in the week ending June 13. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 20.3% y/y in the week of June 20, after a 21.9% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories declined 1.8% y/y in the week of June 20 after a 0.6% y/y easing in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell to 25.0 days in the week of June 20 from 25.4 days in the prior week. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8, 2024. The supply of crude oil fell to 24.4 days in the week of June 20 from 25.0 days in the prior week, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices retreat.
- Crude oil costs decline sharply.
- Natural gas prices move up.

U.S. Energy Prices are Mixed in Latest Week

Robert Brusca

250701E.jpg

The global manufacturing PMIs from S&P are largely mixed in June with 9 of the 18 surveyed economies showing manufacturing improvement and 9 showing deterioration. However, there's relatively more improvement shown among the large economies with the euro area, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan also showing improvement in the manufacturing sector in June.

Median manufacturing readings moved down slightly month to month in June; the sequential readings from 12-months to six-months to three-months still show slight slippages in train.

Diffusion readings measure a breadth of improvement from period to period. These readings show a 61.1% breadth over 12 months compared to a year ago; over six months compared to 12-months the breadth slips sharply to about 27%; over three months compared to six-months breadth improves to about 39%; however, that's still below 50% which is the neutral reading. Clearly on balance more are slipping that are improving.

There are some sequential trends clearly showing that conditions are still touch and go and still not improving although the counterpoint to that is that year-over-year, the six-month to 12-month, and the three-month to six-month changes show consistent improvement for the United States, France, Germany, the euro area and that on that comparison India is also doing better at each venue.

The pooled data are not particularly impressive or encouraging. However, it's clear that there are some centers of strength and of firmness and enough to be somewhat encouraging because the large economies do tend to lead the way and right now, they are the stronger group of economies.

Readings in terms of strength show that, on the whole period, back to January 2021, the euro area, Germany, France, and the U.S. all have standings in their June readings that are above their medians; for that period Japan also has a standing above its median. India has a standing in its 90th percentile, an extremely strong reading. The large economies, and at least one of the large developing economies, are having some success.

The percentile standings, however, drive home a message that the median ranking among reporting countries for this period is in its 32nd percentile, close to the one third mark and nowhere near the median for its historic queue of data - and that's not encouraging.

Polled together on unweighted data, the U.S., the U.K., the European Monetary Union, Canada, and Japan have a queue standing on the period in only its 45th percentile. The BRIC countries are only in their 40th percentile. The average among Asian countries is only in its 37th percentile.

250701.jpg

The report for the month is more disappointing that we would hope for; however, it's not without a few bright spots and those bright spots are substantially linked to performance in the larger, more developed, economies where inflation appears to be coming to head and where central banks will, because of that progress, gain more flexibility. There's also some good news/bad news operating in the background and that is that, because of the more hostile geopolitical environment, there's going to be more military spending going forward. The good news part of that is that military spending will help to underpin growth and jobs and help to sustain economic growth going forward.

Global Manufacturing PMIs Mixed Story in June

250630A1.jpg

250630B1.jpg

The rate of decline in Texas manufacturing activity ease in June, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The General Business Activity index rose to -12.7% this month from -15.3% in May but remained below a high of +14.1 in January. A higher 17.9% of respondents reported improved business activity in June. The Future Business Activity index rose sharply to 14.4 this month to its highest level since January. The data was collected from June 13-21 from 85 manufacturing firms.

The employment index rose in June to 5.7, its best reading since July 2024 as a higher 17.8% of respondents reported higher employment this month. Also moving higher was the new orders index to -7.3, though the level still was negative. Improving sharply, the capital expenditures index surged to 10.9, the highest level since January. The production index of 1.3 was up from 0.9 in May as an increased 31.7% of respondents reported gains in output.

The shipments reading fell to -7.3 from +0.5. The hours-worked index declined to -8.4, its lowest point since in four months. The growth rate of new orders index dropped to -17.2; it hasn’t been positive since January. The wages & benefits index declined to 13.4, down from a high of 55.0 in March 2022.

Inflation indicators strengthened this month. The index for prices received for finished goods jumped to 26.1 from 15.1 in May. It was the highest level since July 2022. A higher 29.8% of respondents reported raising prices this month while 3.7% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials rose to 43.0 from 40.7 this month, up from a low of 1.0 in June 2023 but still below a high of 82.2 in June 2021.

The jump in the Future Manufacturing Activity Index reflected a strengthening in expected new orders growth to 15.3 and expected shipments to 27.3, though expected production fell to 22.6. The future wages & benefits reading jumped to 32.1, its highest level since February. The future employment index rose to 15.4 and the future wages & benefits reading doubled to 32.1. The future capital spending reading, however, fell to 16.9 and the future production weakened to 22.6 and remained below a November high of 45.2. The future capital spending reading declined to 16.9 and reversed half of its May improvement.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease in activity from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

250630C1.jpg

250630D1.jpg

- Weakness in general business activity index has diminished.
- Employment & capital spending readings improve.
- Expectations for shipments & new orders rise. 
- Current capital spending jumps but expectations weaken.

Texas Manufacturing Activity Improves Modestly in June; Expectations Jump

250630E.jpg

Globally money growth has stabilized more in the month of May.  

**In the European Monetary Union** (EMU) over three months the annualized money growth rate ticked up to 2.9%, compared with 2.5% growth rate over six months and a 3.6% growth rate over 12 months; over two and three years the growth rate for money in EMU has been 2% for two years and 1.4% for three years. Compared to that, we have money growth sustaining itself at a stronger level.

**In the United States**, money growth continues to accelerate but slightly; the three-month growth rate for money is 6.2%; at an annual rate over six months it's 4.9%; over 12 months its pace is 4.5%. Money growth has steadily accelerated compared to a 0.4% growth over 3 years and a 2.7% pace over 2 years. The U.S. is the one exception where money growth rates are looking hot and where there has been steady acceleration in these growth rate; these calculations are in terms of M2.

**The United Kingdom** shows more variability as 12-month growth in U.K. for the money aggregate M4 is 3.5%. That moves up to 4.1% over 6 months and is back down to 1.7% annualized over 3 months. So, the 3-month growth rate in the U.K. is looking more like the 1.8% growth rate over 2 years, but even that stepped up from 1.1% over 3 years. In the case of the U.K., money growth rates have picked up and do seem to have steadied and they are off their top growth pace. However, at 1.7% the nominal growth rate of money over three months is on the light side

**Japan**, of course, is the central bank that is still engaged in raising rates and still has an acknowledged inflation problem. In Japan, the 3-month growth rate for M2 plus CDs is -1.3% annualized, weaker than 0.1% over 6 months which is weaker than 0.6% over 12 months; the Japanese money growth rates also decelerate from three-years to two-years and continue to decelerate on down to three-months. The Bank of Japan is still plotting its strategy for an inflation rate that appears to be both stubborn and slightly excessive. However, it's a welcome set of problems compared to the deflation that Japan dealt with the decade earlier.

**Real money balances**
Real money balances tend to show some step up in pace. In the case of the European Monetary Union, there's a steady acceleration of money growth from -2% at an annual rate over three years to +2.3% over 3 months and more or less steady pickups from period to period in between.

In the U.S., real money growth rates show a persistence acceleration from -2.8% at an annual rate over three years to the 5.2% annual rate over three months. Real money supply growth in the U.S. is cooking and strong, particularly over three months. However, over six months the growth rate is only 2.2% so the heat in terms of U.S. money supply growth is a relatively recent phenomenon.

In the U.K., real M4 growth continues to show contraction and M4 growth contracts over all horizons; over three years, two years 12 months, six months and three-months. However, the three-month contraction is at a -1.6% rate, deeper contraction than the 12-month rate (-0.4%) and pretty close to what it's done over two years on balance (-1.5%) although that's a step up in the pace of contraction compared to 12-months to six-months. U.K. growth has been running on the weak side in addition to its weak real and nominal money supply growth.

Japan shows contraction and money supply overall horizons and the contraction gets progressively larger over more recent periods; money growth is at a -4.1% annual rate over three months and that compares to -2.8% over 12 months, logging a declining rate of -1.4% at an annual rate over three years. Japan’s weak real money growth is a policy decision.

The background for real and nominal money growth is that oil prices are continuing to fall. They're falling in nominal terms and in real terms with year-over-year oil prices falling at about a 23% annual rate and in real terms the oil price is falling at about a 25% annual rate. The weakness in oil is helping central banks catch up on their inflation mandates at least four headline inflation.

**EU credit growth is lax**
And the European Monetary Union credit growth continues to expand but it is slowing. Private credit grows 2.4% at an annual rate over 12 months, but that slips to 1.5% annualized over three months and compares to the kind of growth that Europe had been seeing over two and three years where the growth rates averaged 1.4% and 1.7%. Real credit growth in the monetary union shows that there has been a pickup in the growth rates from 12 months to six months to three months; all show expansion although there's not steady acceleration there is steady positive growth. Those are good developments for the outlook for growth.

250630.jpg

**Global conditions**
Global inflation rates have begun to coalesce a little bit more around a 2% pace. Tariffs continue to be a sticking point as they haven't been sorted out yet and the U.S. and China continue to go back and forth while the U.S. and Canada appeared to have hit some sort of stalemate. Still, global geopolitics don't look quite as grim as they did a while ago. NATO has sided with the U.S. demand for them to spend more. More NATO countries have generally decided to spend 5% of GDP on military. In the Middle East, the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has resulted in a ceasefire and a cooling off of the Iran-Israeli conflict although we can't report any such cooling that is extended to Ukraine-Russia. The global geopolitical situation remains touch and go, but the fact that NATO countries were able to cut a deal is good news; having a ceasefire between Israel and Iran is good news; and we're waiting to see if we can report any kind of news on the tariff front as deadlines approach.

**Money seems a less active force**
Money growth on its own has become more of a neutral factor with money generally not signaling growth that's too hot or too cold although with some very particular country level differences and especially with Japan continuing to try to reduce its domestic inflation rate. The main fly-in-the-ointment right now is excessive U.S. money growth. That's occurring while some U.S. statistics have been a little more touch and go and where the Federal Reserve is pursuing a wait-andsee attitude on future policy, but with the central bank still planning to tip the balance on the side of easing further.

Globally Money Growth Stabilizes Except in Japan

large_250703A1.jpg

medium_250703A1.jpg

small_250703A1.jpg

thumbnail_250703A1.jpg

250703A1.jpg

large_250703B1.jpg

medium_250703B1.jpg

small_250703B1.jpg

thumbnail_250703B1.jpg

250703B1.jpg

Nonfarm payrolls increased 147,000 (1.1% y/y) during June after rising 144,000 in May, revised from 139,000, and 158,000 in April, revised from 147,000. Expectations had been for a 113,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average change of 150,000 in June compared to 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% during June after an unrevised 0.4% May gain, and a 0.2% April increase. Earnings growth of 3.7% y/y is down from a high of 4.2% last November, and has been trending lower from the 5.9% high in March 2022. A 0.3% increase expected for June.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, fell m/m to 4.1%. It compared to 4.2% in May where it had been for three straight months. A rise to 4.3% was expected. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 7.7% last month from 7.8% In May. It was 6.6% in April 2023.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment in June rose 74,000 (1.0% y/y) after a 137,000 May increase. Factory sector jobs declined 7,000 (-0.7% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Construction sector employment increased 15,000 (1.4% y/y), after rising 6,000 in May.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 68,000 (1.2% y/y) in June after improving 141,000 in May. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 51,000 (3.3% y/y) last month while leisure & hospitality employment rose 20,000 (1.4% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities employment gained 3,000 (0.6% y/y) and financial activities employment improved 3,000 (1.0% y/y).

Government sector payrolls strengthened 73,000 (1.5% y/y) last month following a 7,000 rise in May. State government employment increased 47,000 (2.8% y/y) while the number of local government jobs rose 33,000 (1.7% y/y). Federal government payrolls fell 7,000 (-2.1% y/y), the fifth straight monthly decline.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in June following unrevised increases of 0.4% in May and 0.2% in April. Earnings in the goods-producing sector edged 0.1% (3.6% y/y) higher. In construction earnings rose 0.4% (3.9% y/y) but factory sector earnings eased 0.1% (+3.5% y/y). In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in June.

large_250703C1.jpg

medium_250703C1.jpg

small_250703C1.jpg

thumbnail_250703C1.jpg

250703C1.jpg

large_250703D1.jpg

medium_250703D1.jpg

small_250703D1.jpg

thumbnail_250703D1.jpg

250703D1.jpg

The length of the average workweek shortened to 34.2 hours in June from 34.3 hours in May. The workweek in the goods-producing sector was unchanged at 39.8 hours. The construction sector average workweek eased to 38.9 hours while the factory sector workweek held steady at 40.1 hours. The average workweek in the private service sector eased to 33.1 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% in June from 4.2% in May as employment rose 96,000 and the size of the labor force declined 130,000, off for the second straight month. The labor force participation rate eased to 62.3% last month and remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers plunged to 35.1%, a five-year low. For workers aged 20-24, the rate declined to 71.0%. For workers aged 25-54, the participation rate edged up to 83.5%. For individuals 55 and over, the rate eased to nearly a 20-year low of 38.0% in June.

The employment/population ratio for all workers held steady at 59.7% last month. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

large_250703X1.jpg

medium_250703X1.jpg

small_250703X1.jpg

thumbnail_250703X1.jpg

250703X1.jpg

large_250703F1.jpg

medium_250703F1.jpg

small_250703F1.jpg

thumbnail_250703F1.jpg

250703F1.jpg

- Job growth improves with strength in state & local gov’t hiring.
- Earnings gain decelerates.
- Jobless rate falls to four-month low.

U.S. Job Growth Firms in June, While Earnings Growth & Jobless Rate Decline

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

#### Academic Data Scope
National Account (GDP), Production, Labour Market, Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Policy & International Trade. High-frequency data covering financial variables and drivers of the real economy, and key ESG environmental indicators. Plus, time series from the IMF on 190+ countries to aid cross comparison.

University

#### Move Back through Time
Terabytes of time series from primary sourced databases available in monthly snapshots as early as 2000, in weekly snapshots as early as 2007 or the point of inception of the database. 

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

U.S. Job Growth Firms in June, While Earnings Growth & Jobless Rate Decline

Recent Commentaries

U.S. Trade Deficit Widened in May

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Decreased in Latest Week

Charts of the Week: Headwinds and Heatwaves

U.S. ADP Payroll Employment Unexpectedly Declines in June

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise 2.7% in the June 27 Week

Unemployment Rates Remain Low, Stable

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints