Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Sandy Batten

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) widened to $70.3 billion in December from a downwardly revised $53.0 billion in November (previously $56.8 billion), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The goods deficit increased markedly to $99.3 billion from a downwardly revised $83.6 billion in November (previously $86.9 billion) while the services surplus narrowed slightly to $29.0 billion from $30.6 billion (previously $30.1 billion). The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a deficit of $55.5 billion.

The real (inflation-adjusted) trade deficit in goods widened to $97.1 billion (2017$) in December from $84.5 billion in November (previously $87.1 billion). However, for all of the fourth quarter, the real deficit narrowed to $245.0 billion from $261.6 billion in Q3. This suggests that trade contributed around 0.5%-point to overall GDP growth in Q4. Q4 GDP will be released tomorrow, December 20.

Exports of goods and services fell 1.7% m/m (+6.3% y/y) in December on top of a 3.4% monthly decline in November. Goods exports (Census basis) dropped 3.0% m/m in December following a 5.2% m/m decline in November. The December decline was led by a 14.5% m/m fall in exports of “other goods,” the fourth monthly decline in five months. Exports of industrial supplies and materials slumped 12.3% m/m on top of an 8.0% m/m decline in November. The $8.7-billion December drop in industrial supplies exports was almost completely accounted for by a $7.1 billion decline in nonmonetary gold exports. By contrast, exports of nonfood consumer goods excluding autos jumped 8.4% m/m in December and capital goods exports gained 4.2% m/m. Exports of services increased 0.4% m/m in December after a 0.2% monthly decline in November. The December gain was led by a 2.5% m/m increase in travel exports and a 1.6% m/m rise in transport exports.

Imports of goods and services increased 3.6% m/m (-2.6% y/y) in December on top of a 4.2% monthly jump in November. Goods imports (Census basis) rose 3.8% m/m on top of a 5.8% monthly jump in November. Imports of industrial supplies surged 15.9% m/m in December, more than reversing a 5.6% m/m decline in November. Capital goods imports increased 5.5% m/m, their third consecutive solid monthly gain. Auto imports rose 3.9% m/m in December, the first monthly increase in four months. By contrast, imports of nonfood consumer goods excluding autos fell 5.9% m/m, but this was after a 15.6% m/m surge in November. Imports of services rebounded in December, rising 2.7% m/m following a 1.3% m/m decline in November. Transport imports jumped 12.1% m/m, their first monthly gain in three months. Travel imports rose 2.4% m/m following a 1.6% monthly decline in November.

By country, the goods trade deficit with China narrowed to $12.4 billion in December from $14.4 billion in November. Exports to China rebounded in December, surging 26.5% m/m after slumping 20.1% m/m in November. Imports from China declined 2.0% m/m in December on top of 4.1% monthly decline in November. This was their fourth monthly decline in the past five months. The trade deficit with the European Union narrowed to $11.1 billion from $14.3 billion in November. The deficit with Japan widened to $5.3 billion from $4.7 billion in November.

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The overall deficit widened to $70.3 billion in December from $53.0 billion in November.
- The goods deficit widened markedly to $99.3 billion from $83.6 billion in November.
- The services surplus narrowed slightly to $29.0 billion from $30.6 billion in November.
- Exports fell 1.7% m/m on top of a 3.4% monthly decline in November while imports rose 3.6% m/m following a 4.2% gain in November.
- For all of Q4, the real goods trade balance narrowed, suggesting that trade contributed to overall GDP growth.

U.S. Trade Deficit Widened Much More Than Expected in December

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 23,000 to 206,000 in the week of February 14, from 229,000 in the week of February 7, revised from 227,000. The four-week average edged down 1,000 to 219,000 in the latest week from 220,000 in the prior week, revised from 219,500. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for 225,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—increased by 17,000 to 1.869 million in the week ending February 7 from 1.852 million in the week ending January 31, revised down 10,000 from 1.862 million. The four-week moving average stood at 1.845 million in the February 7 week, from 1.844 million in the January 31 week, revised from 1.847 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of February 7, unchanged from the previous ten weeks.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending January 31, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (3.01%), New Jersey (2.90%), Massachusetts (2.74%), Minnesota (2.60%), Washington (2.56%), Montana (2.18%), California (2.15%), Michigan (2.04%) and Oregon (2.01%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), Louisiana (0.39%), North Carolina (0.43%), Alabama (0.45%), Arkansas (0.46%), and Arizona (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include New York (2.24%), Illinois (2.17%), Pennsylvania (2.10%), and Texas (1.10%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims dropped by 23,000 to 206,000.
- Continuing claims rose by 17,000 to 1.869 million.
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% for the 11th consecutive week.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Declined in Latest Week

Robert Brusca

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Belgian consumer confidence slipped in February. But it has made a long climb back to positive territory and that reading is holding on at +1 in February, down from +4 in January.

Belgian consumer confidence has been slowing progressing from a reading of -4 twelve-months ago to -2 six-months ago and to +2 just three-months ago. This progression shows a trend of improvement under way for the Belgian consumer.

Also, importantly, the queue reading of the consumer index in February is at a standing of 85.3, a top 15-percentile reading on data since 1991.

The economic situation is not as robust. It has improved for the next 12 months to -25 from a reading of -29 in January. There is a slight weakening in readings from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months, and the current February reading of -25 diffusion has a 15-percentile standing on data back to 1991. This concept carries a larger negative value over the next 12 months than under the last 12 months. However, that reading nonetheless has a stronger standing at its 24.9 percentile than the outlook for the 12 months ahead. The economic situation is clearly suppressed compared to the confidence reading.

Prices show a slight weakening for the next 12 months compared to the January reading. However, the 12-month to 6-month to 3-month readings show a move up to stronger price levels. The ranking of the February price reading is a top 16-percentile reading; inflation in Belgium is still on the hot side.

However, prospects for unemployment have shifted sharply to show a much lower expectation of unemployment; unemployment expectations increased from -20 in January to a diffusion reading of -11 in February, with a ranking in its lower two percentile.
   
The environment for making a major household purchase over the next 12 months has eroded over the past few months, although it shows a trend toward improvement from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months. Still, the February reading has a 29.7 percentile standing, well below its historical median (represented by a 50 percentile standing).

The ‘favorable to spend at present’ index weakened quite sharply in February and has been slipping from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months. It registered in February a standing in only its 10th percentile, extremely weak. The consumer is not leading Belgium into recovery on the back of spending.

The financial situation expected over the next 12 months has been relatively static month-to-month as well as across the last 12 months. The ranking for expected conditions is weak at a 34th percentile reading. But the current financial situation, while stepping back on the month, has an 82.7 percentile standing. The financial situation reading appears to be in some flux, but the actual current readings have been firm in relatively strong territory for some time.

Household savings for the next 12 months backed down in February but had been strengthening over the past year. The February reading is quite high, a top 9-percentile reading. The favorability to save has not changed much over the past year but has eroded slightly in February. The February current assessment for savings is at a 62.2 percentile reading, much weaker than its 12-month outlook reading.

The Belgian consumer is experiencing some crosscurrents. Consumer readings are underpinned by low expectations for unemployment and by a solid current situation appraisal. However, the economic situation remains weak and is not trending higher and inflation readings are still uncomfortably high.

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Belgium

Belgian Consumer Confidence Clings to a Positive Reading

Michael J. Moran

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New orders for durable goods fell 1.4% in December, but the change followed a strong advance in the prior month, leaving little damage to the upward trend that began early last year. The improvement in 2025 ended a period of little net change in the prior two years and left year-over-year growth of 10.0% in December.

As is often the case, the decline in headline bookings was influenced by the volatile aircraft and parts component, which fell 19.7%. Excluding aircraft, durable orders rose 1.3% month-to-month. Moreover, the advance was broadly based, with five of the six non-transportation categories contributing to the gain (only the miscellaneous category fell and the decline was modest at 0.2%).

With order flows trending up, manufacturers have started to register increases in unfilled orders. The backlog outside of transportation has increased for five consecutive months, averaging 0.3% per month. The aircraft industry, although not experiencing robust new orders, also has built up a backlog because of the long gestation period in building aircraft. Total unfilled orders have increased 10.2% in the past 12months.

New orders for nondefense capital goods other than aircraft is a component worthy of special attention because of the insight it provides into investment spending by businesses. This measure rose 0.6% in December, marking the sixth consecutive monthly advance. As with the headline figure, the improvement in 2025 ended a lethargic performance in the prior two years.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- A broad-based advance in December offset a drop in aircraft bookings.
- Unfilled orders are beginning to build.
- Orders for nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft remain on a solid path.

Durable Goods Orders: Irregular Upward Trend Continues

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Industrial production (IP) rose a larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m (2.3% y/y) in January following downwardly revised readings for both December (0.2% m/m versus 0.4% m/m previously) and November (0.1% m/m versus 0.4% m/m previously) according to data released by the Federal Reserve Board. The Action Economics Survey looked for a 0.4% monthly gain. The 2.3% annual increase was the second highest since September 2022.

Manufacturing output increased 0.6% y/y (2.4% y/y) in January following a downwardly revised unchanged reading in December (previously +0.2% m/m). Weakness in mining output continued with a 0.2% m/m decline (+2.5%y/y) in January after a downwardly revised 0.9% monthly drop in December (previously -0.7% m/m). This was fourth monthly decline in mining output in the past five months. Reflecting continued unseasonably cold temperatures, utilities output jumped 2.1% m/m (1.1% y/y) in January on top of an upwardly revised 3.0% monthly gain in December (previously 2.6% m/m). This reflected 2.1% monthly gains in both electricity and natural gas distribution.

Within manufacturing, durable goods production rose 0.8% m/m (3.7% y/y) in January after a 0.2% monthly increase in December. Gains were widespread across sectors. Production of nonmetallic mineral products increased 2.2% m/m, the first monthly gain in four months. Machinery output increased 1.2% m/m; computer production gained 1.0% m/m; output of motor vehicles rose 1.3% m/m. By contrast, production of aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment slipped 0.2% m/m, the second monthly decline in the past three months. Output of nondurable goods increased 0.4% m/m (1.3% y/y) in January, more than reversing a 0.2% monthly decline in December. Performance by sector was varied. Output of plastics and rubber products rose 1.3% m/m in January; chemical production increased 1.1% m/m; paper production gained 0.8% m/m. By contrast, output of apparel and leather goods fell 0.7% m/m, their first monthly decline in three months; food output fell 0.4% m/m; textile output declined 0.3% m/m.

By market groups, output of consumer goods increased 0.7% m/m (1.3% y/y) in January on top of a 0.8% monthly gain in December. Production of business equipment gained 0.9% m/m (9.3% y/y) in January, the same monthly advance as in December. Output of construction supplies rose 0.5% m/m (1.2% y/y) in January, more than reversing the 0.4% monthly decline in December. Output of material increased 0.6% m/m (1.9% y/y) in January after having been unchanged in December from November.

In special classifications, output of selected high-tech industries jumped 1.9% m/m (8.9% y/y) in January, the fourth consecutive monthly gain, following a 0.2% monthly increase in December. Output of motor vehicles and parts rose 1.3% m/m (5.5% y/y) in January after having been unchanged in December. The January gain was led by a 1.9% monthly jump in motor vehicle production. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries was up 0.6% m/m (2.2% y/y) in January following an unchanged monthly reading in December. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries and motor vehicles and parts increased 0.5% m/m (2.0% y/y) in January versus unchanged in December.

Capacity utilization rose to 76.2% in January, 3.2%-points below its long-term (1972-2025) average, from a downwardly revised 75.7% in December (previously 76.3%). The January reading was the highest since July. Manufacturing capacity utilization increased to 75.6% in January, 2.6%-points below its long-term (1972-2025) average, from 75.2% in December.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total industrial output increased a larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m in January.
- However, there were meaningful downward revisions to the previous two months.
- Manufacturing output increased 0.6% m/m, mining declined 0.2% m/m, and utilities production jumped 2.1% m/m.
- Rates of capacity utilization edged up in January but remained well below their long-term averages.

U.S. Industrial Production Jumped in January

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total housing starts rose 6.2% m/m in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.404 million units—above expectations—following a 3.9% increase to 1.322 million in November and an upwardly revised 4.2% decline to 1.272 million in October (-4.6% m/m, 1.246 mil. previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 1.320 million starts for December. The latest figure marked the third m/m rise in four months and the highest level since July. The year-on-year rate was at -7.3% in December, the steepest y/y drop since November 2024, following +2.1% in November and -0.5% in December 2024. Overall, starts remained 22.9% below the April 2022 peak of 1.820 million. For all of 2025, housing starts declined 0.9% after decreases of 3.5% in 2024 and 8.4% in 2023.

Single-family starts, up for the third straight month, increased 4.1% (-9.0% y/y) to 981,000 in December, the highest level since February 2025, after rises of 5.4% to 942,000 in November and 6.9% to 894,000 in October (874,000 previously). They reached a high of 1.218 million in November 2021 and a peak of 1.273 million in December 2020. Multi-family starts jumped 11.3% (-3.0% y/y) to 423,000, the third m/m gain in four months and the highest level since September, following a 0.5% November increase to 380,000 and a 23.2% October plunge to 378,000 (372,000 previously). They reached a peak of 629,000 units in November 2022 and a high of 616,000 units in April 2022.

By region, December housing starts mostly increased m/m. Starts in the West surged 37.4% (19.7% y/y) to 334,000 in December after a 5.8% decrease in November, registering the largest m/m gain since January 2025 and the highest level since February 2025. Starts in the Northeast rose 5.6% (2.7% y/y) to 152,000 after holding at 144,000 in November and October. Starts in the Midwest grew 2.3% (-13.2% y/y) to 177,000 following a 14.8% November slump. To the downside, starts in the South fell 2.8% (-16.1% y/y) to 741,000 in December, the first m/m fall since September, after a 14.2% advance in November. Despite the m/m pullback, the South continued to lead all regions, accounting for 52.8% of total U.S. housing starts; the region previously peaked at 1.044 million in April 2022.

Building permits recovered 4.3% (-2.2% y/y) to 1.448 million in December, the highest level since March 2025, after declines of 1.6% to 1.388 million in November and 0.3% to 1.411 million in October. They remained well below a high of 1.920 million in January 2022 and a high of 1.855 million in January 2021. Single-family permits slid 1.7% (-10.9% y/y) to 881,000 following a 2.1% November rebound to 896,000. They reached highs of 1.243 million in both January 2022 and January 2021. Multi-family permits jumped 15.2% (15.5% y/y) to 567,000, the highest level since August 2023, after a 7.7% November decline to 492,000. They reached a peak of 817,000 units in February 2023 and a high of 787,000 units in June 2022. Regionally, permits rebounded m/m in the Northeast (+44.4%; +17.4% y/y), West (+8.0%; +13.5% y/y), and Midwest (+6.6%; -5.0% y/y), but fell m/m in the South (-4.1%; -10.9% y/y).

The housing starts and building permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

The minutes to the latest **FOMC** meeting are available [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20260128.pdf).

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- Housing starts +6.2% (-7.3% y/y) to 1.404 mil. in Dec.; third m/m gain in four months.
- Single-family starts up to a 10-month high; multi-family starts up to a three-month high.
- Housing starts m/m up in the West, Northeast, and Midwest, but down in the South.
- Building permits recover to a nine-month high, led by a rebound in multi-family permits.

U.S. Housing Starts Advance in December to a Five-Month High

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Mortgage applications rose 2.8% w/w (57.7% y/y) in the week ending February 13, following a decline of 0.3% w/w (+43.4% y/y) in the week ending February 6, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 2.7% w/w (+9.1% y/y) in the latest week, after a decline of 2.4% w/w (+5.5% y/y) in the week ending February 6.  Applications for loan refinancing rose 7.1% w/w (131.8% y/y) in the February 13 week after a rise of 1.2% w/w (100.5% y/y) in the February 6 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged down 5bps to 6.33% in the week ending February 13 from 6.38% in the week ending February 6. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped 14bps to 5.68% in the latest week from 5.82% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate fell 11bps to 6.29% in the February 13 week from 6.40% in the February 6 week, reaching its lowest level since the week of February 10, 2023. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped 6bps to 5.52% in the latest week from 5.58% in the week ending February 6.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 57.4% of total applications in the February 13 week from 56.4% in the February 6 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.2% in the February 13 week from 8.0% in the week ending February 6.

The average size of a mortgage loan rose 2.3% w/w (8.6% y/y) to $415,100 in the week ending February 13, after a decline of 1.2% w/w (+3.1% y/y) to $405,700 in the week ending February 6. The average size of a purchase loan edged up 0.7% w/w (2.0% y/y) to $448,000 in the latest week, following a decline of 1.6% w/w (-2.4% y/y) to $445,000 in the week ending February 6. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 4.1% w/w (34.1% y/y) to $390,700 in the week ending February 13, following a decline of 1.2% w/w (+24.9% y/y) to $375,200 in the week ending February 6.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase declined in the latest week while refinancing loan applications rose.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans declined 5bp to 6.33%.
- Average loan size rose.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose in the February 13 Week

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Inflation in the United Kingdom has irregularly downshifted over the past two months. In January, consumer price inflation remained steady at 2.8% over three months, the same pace as over six months. Core inflation ticked up to 3.3% over three months from 3.1% over six months but settled below the 12-month pace of 3.4%. Yet another measure, the HICP, comparable to the inflation rates reported by ECB numbers, logs 2.5% over three months, a slight uptick from six-month pace but less than the 12-month pace of 3%.

**Diffusion**
The diffusion statistics that measure the breadth of acceleration of inflation across categories month-to-month came in at only 16.7% in January, down from 66.7% in December and compared to 33.3% in November. Diffusion readings below 50% indicate more deceleration than acceleration. So, inflation has been under control, with recent results showing more deceleration for inflation monthly than to accelerate. December was an exception. Over the 3 , 6 , and 12 month periods, inflation shows some acceleration tendency over 3 months, with diffusion at 58.3%; but that compares to 6-month diffusion at 16.7% and 12-month diffusion at 25%. Once again, the broad stroke for inflation, trending from 12 months to 6 months to 3 months, is showing more categories decelerating than accelerating.

**Inflation rate ranking**
The final right-hand column ranks inflation rates on data back to 2000 based on their year-over-year performance. The current HICP, at 3%, has a 73.8 percentile standing among inflation rates back to 2000, marking it near the upper 25 percentile of the collection of results. The CPIH has a 79.6 percentile standing, putting it closer to the top 20% of observations over that same span. Core inflation at 3.4% has an 83.7 percentile standing, putting it in nearly the top 15% of results on data back to 2000.

**Convergence around 2.8%**
The chart, supplemented by diffusion data, clearly shows that there is some inflation deceleration in progress; however, the level of year-over-year inflation still shows inflation among the upper ranges of what it's been over the last 25 years.

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**BOE**
A lot of attention is focused on the Bank of England and when it will cut rates. While there is some evidence of near term softness in inflation and certainly there is an evenness in economic growth and reason to wonder about the strength of economic growth, inflation results are still probably a little bit too high to allow for rate cuts at this point.

**Summing up**
The Bank of England has a 2% inflation target and current numbers are hovering around or just below 3%. The only reading as low as 2.5% is the 3 month measure. The collection of results simply doesn’t show enough downward movement or stability at lower levels for the BOE to be taken seriously and for the bank to cut rates. Remember, of course, that when the central bank cuts rates, it's taking away some of the braking effects for interest rates on inflation. So, if inflation isn't where you want it and you cut rates, you're taking away a tool that is promoting the reduction of inflation to a lower level closer to your target. When you take that away, you’re acknowledging that you're going to allow inflation to progress more slowly toward the target. I'm not sure that's the signal that the Bank of England would like to make at this time.

United Kingdom

U.K. Inflation Waffles and Percolates

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Total factory orders unexpectedly fell 0.7% m/m in December after a 2.7% gain in November and a 1.2% drop in October, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. December marked the second m/m fall in three months following m/m increases in September and August. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.8% m/m December increase. The year-on-year growth rate slowed to 4.3% in December from 5.4% in November (-1.8% in December 2024), while remaining far below a peak of 39.6% in April 2021. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts plunged 24.8% m/m in December after a 98.2% surge in November and a 17.9% drop in October. Factory orders excluding defense fell 1.2% (+3.8% y/y) following a 3.2% November rebound. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.4% (1.2% y/y), the third m/m rise in four months, after a 0.1% November uptick. For all of 2025, factory orders gained 4.0% after a 0.5% decline in 2024 and a 0.3% increase in 2023.

Durable goods orders fell 1.4% (+10.1% y/y) in December after a 5.4% rebound in November (matching -1.4% m/m in the advance report on February 18). The December m/m fall was led by a 5.4% orders drop (+20.2% y/y) in transportation equipment following a 15.2% November jump. Other major durable goods orders categories rose m/m, led by a 3.1% gain (7.4% y/y) in computers & electronic products, followed by increases of 2.1% (9.1% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (3.5% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.5% (10.0% y/y) in machinery, 0.3% (4.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, and 0.1% (4.5% y/y) in furniture & related products.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, were essentially unchanged (-1.4% y/y) in December after a 0.1% dip in November (the fourth successive m/m decline). The flat December reading reflected m/m increases of 2.1% (-0.7% y/y) in textile products, 1.9% (0.3% y/y) in apparel, 0.6% (3.4% y/y) in beverage & tobacco products, 0.6% (4.3% y/y) in chemical products, 0.3% (-0.1% y/y) in paper products, and 0.2% (-0.3% y/y) in food products. To the downside, the following nondurable goods shipments declined m/m in December: petroleum & coal products (-1.3%; -13.4% y/y), textile mills (-1.0%; -1.4% y/y), leather & allied products (-0.5%; -7.8% y/y), and printing (-0.4%; -1.2% y/y). Meanwhile, shipments for plastics & rubber products were virtually unchanged (+0.5% y/y) after a 0.4% November rebound.

Total shipments rose 0.5% (2.2% y/y) in December, the second m/m rise in three months, following a 0.2% decline in November. Excluding transportation, shipments increased 0.4% (1.0% y/y), the third m/m gain in four months, after a 0.1% November uptick. Shipments of durable goods industries recovered 1.0% (5.8% y/y), also up for the third time in four months, after a 0.3% November decline. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments gains of 2.5% (7.2% y/y) in primary metals, 1.4% (8.8% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.3% (8.1% y/y) in machinery, 0.7% (4.6% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.6% (5.1% y/y) in computers & electronic products, and 0.5% (1.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products. Durable goods shipments for furniture & related products (-0.3%; +4.0% y/y) and wood products (-0.3%; -3.9% y/y) fell m/m in December, while durable goods shipments for electrical equipment, appliances & components (+2.4% y/y) and miscellaneous durable goods (+2.3% y/y) were flat m/m.

Unfilled orders rose 0.9% (10.3% y/y) in December on top of a 1.4% advance in November, registering the fifth consecutive m/m rise and the seventh in eight months. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders grew 0.4% (1.6% y/y), the strongest of five straight m/m increases, after a 0.3% November rise. Backlogs of durable goods rose 0.9% (10.3% y/y) in December, led by m/m gains of 1.2% (16.1% y/y) in transportation equipment and 1.0% (3.7% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, partially offset by a 0.1% decline (+2.2% y/y) in primary metals.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in December after a 0.2% rise in November and no change in October. Excluding transportation, inventories inched up 0.1% (1.2% y/y), the seventh m/m increase in eight months, after a 0.1% November uptick. Durable goods inventories grew 0.3% (1.5% y/y), the third successive m/m gain, after a 0.2% November rise, while nondurable goods inventories fell 0.2% (-0.1% y/y), the third m/m fall in four months, after a 0.1% November increase.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- December factory orders -0.7% m/m (+4.3% y/y); still 7.2% above the Jan. ’24 low.
- Durable goods -1.4% m/m; nondurable goods orders flat; shipments +0.5% m/m.
- Transportation orders -5.4% m/m, led by a 24.8% plunge in nondefense aircraft orders.
- Unfilled orders +0.9%, the fifth straight m/m rise.
- Inventories +0.1%, the second consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Fall in December on Weak Nondefense Aircraft Orders

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