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US retail sales accelerate even as consumers remain gloomy

Robert Brusca

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The German PPI excluding construction fell by 0.3% in June following three months of increases. Sequentially, the PPI is accelerating, with a 1.8% rise over 12 months, a gain at a 4.3% annual rate over six months, and a gain at a 4.8% annual rate over three months. They are joined by PPI excluding energy index, which also shows an accelerating pattern, rising 2.4% over 12 months, at a 4.4% annual rate over six months, and then at a 6.4% annual rate over three months.

The inflation picture for in June is fine if you restrict your view to the headline, where it dropped by 0.3%. However, the PPI excluding energy rose by 0.3% in June after rising by 0.7% in May and by 0.5% in April, definitely a string of unruly increases for producer prices in Germany.

**Sector trends**: The sector inflation metrics are not seasonally adjusted; as a result, a sequential trend may not be as reliable. On the other hand, when data aren't seasonally adjusted, it's often because the statistical authorities haven't detected stable patterns of seasonality and so they present the data as not seasonally adjusted. Let’s look at the sector trends, NSA. For consumer goods, prices fall by 1.7% over 12 months, followed by a 0.2% annualized fall over six months and at a 0.3% annual drop over three months. The pattern is not particularly reassuring as the pace of decline is waning sequentially, although consumer goods are producing declines and showing price weakness. Investment goods, on the other hand, show prices steadily expanding, by 2.1% over 12 months, by 3.2% annually over six months but then stepping back slightly toward a 2.4% annual gain over three months. Not surprisingly, the inflation fire is really cooking under intermediate goods, where raw materials have a bigger role. Intermediate goods prices are up by 5.1% over 12 months; unadjusted prices are up at a 10.9% annual rate over six months and then at a 13.8% annual rate over three months. This is clearly the source of the price pressure in the PPI.

**Energy prices**: Energy prices are only part of the problem, however, and we can see in the energy prices at the bottom of the table that they are producing some strange and unstable price trends. Brent oil prices measured in euros fell 17% month-to-month in June after rising by 0.8% in May and by 1.6% in April. Sequentially, Brent prices are up by 20.2% over 12 months and up at a 94.1% annual rate over six months, but then they fall to a 47.6% annual rate over three months. Against that background, prices in the second quarter compared to the first quarter show an increase at a 141.3% annual rate. These metrics explain why it's hard to pin down the oil-price impact on the PPI. The quarter-to-quarter changes are enormous, the three-month change is extremely weak, but that follows an extraordinary annualized gain over six months, and in June alone oil prices fell sharply by 17%. It is hard to keep track of the oil-price passthrough cycle. So, we're going to have to wait for these trends to sort themselves out to get a better fix on the impact of oil and energy prices. However, we know that the recent good news on oil has since been rescinded as the Strait of Hormuz, which was briefly open, is shut again and the U.S. and Iran have scrapped their fledgling ceasefire agreement.

**Euro area—what matters**: Policy in the euro area is made based upon inflation for the whole union, not just for Germany, but it pays closer attention to the CPI than the PPI. Germany is still the largest economy in the monetary union, and its CPI is up 2.3% over 12 months, up at a 2.5% annual rate over six months, and rising at a 0.3% annual rate over three months. The CPI excluding energy for Germany is considerably more stable, up by 2.3% over 12 months and then rising at a 2% annual rate over both six months and three months. German ex-energy CPI prices appear to be calm, with inflation arrested; however, we can't say the same thing for the PPI ex-energy, with the inflation rate in a clear accelerating mode.

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With the Strait of Hormuz closed again, we will be looking at the impact of higher energy prices on inflation in the local economies. The ECB will be meeting this week; it is not expected to change rates. However, it started to raise rates at its previous meeting while it forged ahead not waiting for the U.S. to start the next cycle. Having had a brief hiatus from rising oil prices because of the short closure of the Strait and the relief that it brought in June may be enough to keep the ECB on the sidelines for a meeting. But looking farther ahead, there is still a great deal of geopolitical conflict with Ukraine showing an ability to reach and bomb Russian oil facilities as well as some of its more important commercial sites. The U.S. has gone back to bombing Iran, focusing more on its infrastructure and threatening to some of its power supplies. Iran has shown some unexpected teeth, unleashing missile attacks on fellow Arab countries in the Middle East rather than aiming at Israel; Iran has struck at a U.S. base in Jordan. After thinking that the U.S. had defanged Iran, it continues to launch missiles and now appears to have missiles that are faster and more evasive than those used earlier, raising the question of where Iran is getting help from and perhaps also how that help is getting into the country. It is unclear what the next move will be in the Middle East.

Germany

German PPI Shows Pressure but Backs Off in June

Tian Yong Woon

In this week's Letter, we examine China's increasingly two-speed economy, where robust AI-driven exports mask faltering domestic demand and a stalled rebalancing. Q2 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% y/y from 4.8%, dragging the year-to-date (ytd) rate towards the lower bound of its 4.5% to 5% target (chart 1). Beneath the headline, a two-speed split has widened, with external-oriented sectors holding up while more inward-focused prints such as retail sales and fixed asset investment weaken (chart 2). 

Exports have kept climbing even as rebalancing stalls, with the export share of GDP rising to about 21% and consumption stuck near 40% (chart 3). With consumption hard to lift, tilting away from exports would sacrifice China's main growth driver, making rebalancing a difficult path. That export strength owes much to the AI boom, as integrated circuits added nearly 6.5 ppts to June's 27% y/y growth (chart 4). Part of the surge, though, likely reflects importer front-loading ahead of expected tariff hikes and the coming holiday seasons. Domestically, however, growth in retail sales had floundered, dragged down by autos, furniture and appliances, while trade-in subsidies likely delivered only one-off, front-loaded gains (chart 5). All while a fragile consumer climate, unsettled by the ongoing property crisis, continues to hold spending back. That crisis runs deep, with property price declines now into a fifth year and no clear bottom in sight (chart 6). 

**China’s Q2 GDP**
China's Q2 GDP results disappointed when posted last week, with growth slowing to 4.3% y/y from Q1's 4.8%. That drop dragged the y/y ytd growth rate towards the lower bound of the 4.5% to 5% target for the year (chart 1). The reading followed a run of soft monthly data, leaving investors increasingly concerned about domestic growth. Even so, China continues to benefit from more robust growth in its externally oriented sectors. This increasingly two-speed dynamic, alongside a persistent lack of economic rebalancing, remains a concern for investors. It has left them looking to Chinese authorities for signs of fresh stimulus to keep the economy on track for its full-year target. We return to these themes in later sections.

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**China’s two-speed economy**
China's two-speed economy is captured in chart 2, where externally oriented sectors have held up comparatively well. They are proxied here by data for export-heavy industrial production growth. The inward, domestically oriented readings of retail sales and fixed asset investment have fared markedly worse. Retail sales growth deteriorated to the point of posting declines in May this year, despite multiple rounds of government-led incentives to spur consumption. On fixed asset investment, y/y ytd figures have sat in negative territory for months. That followed only a brief period of growth earlier this year. It underscores how weak investment flows have become, largely hit by China's protracted property slump.

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Exports and related sectors have continued to enjoy robust growth, helped in part by strong demand for AI-related goods, even as domestically oriented sectors falter. Rebalancing towards consumption was a resurgent initiative touted by authorities last year. Instead, China's export share of nominal GDP rose again in 2025, to about 21% (chart 3). The share of residential consumption, meanwhile, has been broadly unchanged at 40%. However, China's gross capital formation share of GDP has continued its downward trend, to about 39%. Against that backdrop, rebalancing looks hard to pursue now, especially if consumption growth cannot be reliably and sustainably boosted. Without that support, the burden of adjustment falls on exports. Paring them back would sacrifice the main growth driver, with little ready to replace it.

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**China’s exports**
Delving deeper into exports, chart 4 shows how far the current AI boom has driven China's recent export growth. Integrated circuits accounted for only about 7% of China's goods exports over the past 12 months. Yet these goods, central to the global AI buildout, have contributed in outsized fashion to export growth in recent months. In June, they added nearly 6.5 percentage points to China's 27% y/y export growth. Other notable contributors include automatic data processing machines and parts, and motor vehicles. Part of the recent surge, however, also likely reflects importer front-loading, ahead of expected tariff hikes on China and the approaching holiday seasons. Even so, with this boom in place, exports have become just about the only significant growth driver China can lean on, amid a faltering domestic economy.

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**China’s domestic sector**
On the flip side, more domestically oriented sectors, captured by prints such as retail sales, have been floundering. Digging beneath the headline, chart 5 shows that the recent lacklustre performance has been dragged down by a few select sectors. Chief among them are automobiles, furniture and household appliances. These slumps have come in spite of recent government measures to spur consumption, such as trade-in subsidies. Admittedly, measures like these likely delivered only one-off effects, front-loading demand from the outset. That payback can be seen in this year's numbers. Also weighing on retail sales is a fragile consumer climate, unsettled in part by China's ongoing property crisis. That crisis, among other factors, continues to hold consumers back from spending more freely.

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Turning to the property market, chart 6 shows that China's price declines have now stretched into a fifth year, with a bottom still too unclear to call. The dampening effects have fed through to other figures, running from wealth effects on consumer sentiment and spending to weaker demand for new residential building, which in turn drags on construction-related investment and employment. In a way, though, this painful and gradual unravelling is arguably what the market needs, shifting the sector away from its speculative past. There have been some signs that the bulk of the pain may have passed, such as smaller price declines, though these remain disparate across cities and unevenly spread. So while there have been city-specific measures to stem further fallout, nationwide stimulus to revive the sector looks unlikely for now.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Two Speed Ahead

Winnie Tapasanun

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Industrial production (IP) edged up a slightly less-than-expected 0.1% m/m in June, the fourth monthly gain in five months, following a 0.1% increase in May (unrevised) and a downwardly revised 0.8% rise in April (+0.9% previously), according to data from the Federal Reserve Board. A 0.2% m/m June increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate decelerated to 1.1% in June, the lowest since March, from 1.7% in May (0.7% in June 2025). The June IP index at 102.6 was 3.3% above a low of 99.3 in November 2024 and 3.4% above a low of 99.2 in January 2024. IP rose 1.0% q/q in Q2 2026 after a 0.3% q/q rebound in Q1 2026, rising at a 4.0% annualized rate following a 1.1% Q1’26 annualized pace.

By **industry groups**, manufacturing production was virtually unchanged m/m (+1.1% y/y) in June after increases of 0.1% in May (0.0% initially) and 0.7% in April (unrevised). Durable goods production dipped 0.1% (+3.2% y/y) in June, the first m/m easing since March, following a 1.0% rise in May. Within durables, most categories fell m/m in June, led by a 0.8% drop (-1.1% y/y) in wood products, followed by declines of 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) in machinery, 0.6% (+5.7% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 0.6% (+3.3% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.2% (+5.0% y/y) in aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, 0.2% (+2.1% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.2% (+1.9% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods. To the upside, the following durable goods categories rose m/m in June, including output rises of 0.7% (1.2% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts, 0.3% (-5.0% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.2% (1.5% y/y) in primary metals, and 0.1% (9.2% y/y) in computer & electronic products. Notably, aircraft & parts production climbed 0.3% (9.1% y/y), the fifth straight m/m rise, after a 1.0% May increase.

Nondurable goods production rose 0.2% (-1.1% y/y) in June, the fourth m/m gain in five months, following a 0.9% decrease in May. The June output rise was led by a 2.1% rebound (-0.9% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, followed by increases of 1.9% (2.1% y/y) in apparel & leather goods, 0.4% (-1.9% y/y) in printing & related support activities, 0.1% (-0.7% y/y) in food, beverages & tobacco, and 0.1% (0.7% y/y) in plastics & rubber products. To the downside, the following nondurable goods categories fell m/m in June, including output declines of 0.4% (-4.6% y/y) in paper, 0.3% (-4.7% y/y) in textiles & product mills, and 0.2% (-1.3% y/y) in chemicals.

Mining activity grew 0.4% (2.4% y/y) in June, the third successive m/m gain and the fourth in five months, after a 1.1% increase in May (+1.3% initially). Utilities output, up for the second time in three months, rose 0.4% (0.3% y/y) following a 0.7% May decline (-0.4% initially), reflecting a 0.9% rebound (1.3% y/y) in electric utilities output and a 3.3% decline (-6.7% y/y) in natural gas utilities output.

By **market groups**, consumer goods output rebounded 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) in June after a 0.6% decline in May, reflecting gains of 0.4% (-0.9% y/y) in durable consumer goods and 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods. Materials production inched up 0.1% (1.3% y/y), the fourth m/m increase in five months, after a 0.3% May rise. In contrast, business equipment output fell 0.4% (+5.4% y/y), the first m/m fall since March, following a 0.9% May gain. Construction supplies production slid 0.4% (+1.5% y/y), the second m/m decline in three months, after a 1.0% May increase.

In **special classifications**, factory output of selected high-tech industries rose 0.5% (11.0% y/y) in June on top of a 1.8% advance in May, marking the third consecutive m/m gain and the eighth in nine months. Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech industries held steady m/m (+0.8% y/y) in June after four straight m/m gains, while manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts dipped 0.1% (+0.8% y/y) for the second successive month.

Capacity utilization held at 76.1% for the third consecutive month in June (with May’s reading revised down from 76.2%). The Action Economics Forecast Survey forecasted 76.2%. The June reading was 3.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization slipped to 75.7% in June from an upwardly revised 75.8% in May (the highest since September 2025; 75.7% initially). The June rate was 2.5 percentage points below its long-run average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- June IP +0.1% (+1.1% y/y), fourth m/m increase in five months.
- Manufacturing unchanged (+1.1% y/y), w/ durables -0.1% and nondurables +0.2%.
- Selected high-tech +0.5%, eighth gain in nine mths.; motor vehicles +0.7%, sixth rise in seven mths.
- Mining +0.4% (+2.4% y/y), third consecutive m/m increase.
- Utilities +0.4% (+0.3% y/y), led by a 0.9% rebound in electric utilities output.
- Key categories in market groups post mixed results.
- Capacity utilization steady at 76.1%; mfg. capacity utilization marginally down to 75.7%.

U.S. Industrial Production Up Slightly in June; Manufacturing Flat

Michael J. Moran

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Total housing starts jumped 19.0% in June, but the sharp advance was less impressive than it might appear. The increase reflected a striking gain of 76.2% in the multi-family sector, but the surge followed a soft month in May. Moreover, single-family building lost a bit of ground (off 0.2%).

The increase in multi-family starts was the fourth largest in the history of the series (data available from 1959). The change involved a large dose of random volatility, as it followed a drop of 39.6% in the prior month, which pushed the level of multi-family starts to the low end of the recent range. Still, the surge in June moved multi-family starts to the upper end of the range from the current cycle and reinforced the upward trend in multi-family activity.

The dip in single-family starts occurred from upwardly revised readings in both April and May (1.7% firmer than previously believed in both months). The revisions, although notable, were not strong enough to have a marked influence on the generally soft performance in the single-family sector. After trending lower during most of 2024 and 2025, single-family building has changed modestly in recent months. The upward revision in April and May gave an upward bump to single-family starts, but the underlying trend is still close to flat.

Building permits are less volatile than starts, and the higher degree of stability usually provides a clearer view of underlying trends. Overall, permits drifted lower during 2024 and 2025 before inching up in the first half of this year. The upward nudge in 2026 primarily reflects planned activity in multi-family building; single-family permits have been tracing a largely sideways trend (charts below).

In general, the housing sector has been soft in the past few years. Activity slowed noticeably in 2022 and 2023 in response to higher interest rates. (Mortgage rates rose from the neighborhood of 3.0% in 2021 to a peak of more than 8.0% in late 2023.) With higher interest rates generating affordability challenges, residential construction has constrained GDP growth in most recent quarters (negative contributions to GDP growth in 12 of the past 17 quarters; an average drag of 0.2 percentage point).

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Multi-Family starts rebounded from a soft reading in May.
- Single-family activity dipped from upwardly revised levels; softish trend overall.

June Housing Starts: Contrasting Movements in Multi-Family and Single-Family

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**Inflation in EMU**
The recent inflation data in the European Monetary Union is emblematic of the kind of issues that central banks typically have to deal with. Casual central bank observers think of central banks as “leaning against the wind,” meaning that they raise rates when inflation is high and then cut rates when the economy gets weak. Indeed, this is largely what central banks do. However, they also try to be anticipatory when they can, seeking to get ahead of surges in inflation and periods when the economy is going to weaken. It's very hard to forecast those shifts in the best of circumstances, and so a great deal of the judgment that central banks form comes from the near-term trends, even though central banks are aware that the most recent data can also be some of the most volatile and prone to revision. With these sorts of caveats, we look at the recent inflation data from the European Monetary Union, and we see less than straightforward trends.

At its last meeting, the European Central Bank got out in front of events and started raising rates ahead of any action by the Federal Reserve. In June, its year-over-year HICP and core HICP rates both decelerated compared to their May values, with the headline easing to 2.8% from 3.2% and the core to 2.4% from 2.6%. Having inflation rates move in the opposite direction of policy, even in the short run, can create rough sledding for a central bank that is, in any event, trying to look at the broader trend rather than the most recent wiggle in the inflation rate. 

**The good, the bad, and the unexpected**
If we go back to December, we see the HICP in the monetary union at 2%, followed by 1.7% in January and 1.9% in February. At that point, things seemed to be well in hand. The problem was that the core inflation rate in December was 2.3%; while it fell to 2.2% in January, it popped back up to 2.4% in February. So, February was one of those uncomfortable months where both the headline and core rates were popping up, but the headline rate was still below the 2% target that the ECB seeks to attain. After February, of course, the world changed; the war in Iran spiked up oil prices and that's when inflation rate in the monetary union rose to 2.6% in March, 3% in April, and 3.2% in May. June inflation has backed down from those higher rates of change; however, conditions in the Middle East that had prompted some release of air from the inflation balloon in June have reversed, and so, the outlook once again is for oil prices to remain high and for inflation to remain troublesome.

**Inflation still percolates**
At the bottom of the table, I show the percentage of categories with inflation accelerating over three months, and since February, that percentage is over 50% in each month. The percentage of categories with inflation accelerating over six months strings out to three months in a row. The decision by the ECB to raise rates is entirely understandable given these trends. In addition, and perhaps less tethered to any particular monetary rule, included in the right-hand column, the inflation ranking in June is compared to data back to the year 2001, a roughly 25-year period. Over this timeline, the headline HICP ranks in the 83rd percentile and the core rate in the 82nd percentile. In both cases, we're looking at inflation being higher only 17% or 18% of the time during this span, which once again marks this as a strong inflation period.

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**Haunted by their legacy**
In addition, central banks are coming off a period where they had missed their inflation targets quite a lot. While the ECB had been able to land its inflation rate inside its target zone for a while, the Federal Reserve has not been able to accomplish that at all; the Bank of England is still struggling with that, and the Bank of Japan, after dueling with deflation, now has an excess of inflation. Globally, there is this environment that's looking a lot more fundamentally inflationary rather than disinflationary and certainly not deflationary, thanks to oil and war. 

**Complex circumstances but a clear objective**
Central banks certainly have to set their policies for their own domestic conditions, but global conditions do matter. The war or warlike conditions continue in Ukraine and Iran. Although the United States and Israel were able to deal Iran a potentially crippling blow to its nuclear operations, Iran tenaciously clings to its ambition to eventually nuclearize and it has added to that a claim to control traffic at the Strait of Hormuz, which most countries find to be unacceptable and which is also in violation of international law. At the same time, Ukraine has been able to penetrate Russian defenses to make strikes deep into Russia against Russian energy resources, so the war in Ukraine is going a lot better for the Ukrainians, although it also is putting the energy sector under greater peril and pressure. These days circumstances are so complicated that sometimes even good news can play out as bad news. One might think that after the evisceration that Iran got in the hands of the United States and Israel, it would be more contrite. But it has not and has only hardened its resistance. Iran is using its advantage over a peculiar piece of geography in the Strait of Hormuz to try to become a global power despite having been stripped of almost all of its military might. As it turns out, the Strait of Hormuz is so delicate that it doesn't take much for Iran to be able to create a good deal of chaos with tanker traffic using missiles, drones, and mines. All of this makes the inflation outlook so much harder to pin down. Monetary policy should not require central bankers to be military strategists, but we have, in some sense, been relegated to that sort of situation.

Europe

HICP Detail in EMU Shows Inflation Lurking

Sandy Batten

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Total retail sales rose a slightly smaller-than-expected 0.2% m/m (6.7% y/y) in June following an upwardly revised 1.0% monthly gain in May (previously +0.9% m/m), according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.3% m/m gain. For all of Q2, total sales were up 2.9% q/q versus a 1.3% quarterly gain in Q1. Excluding autos, other sales fell 0.2% m/m (+6.9% y/y) in June after an upwardly revised 1.0% m/m increase in May (previously +0.8% m/m). Expectations were for an unchanged reading in June. For all of Q2, ex-auto sales were up 3.2% q/q versus 1.5% in Q1.

Retail gasoline prices fell markedly in June following the announced MoU between the US and Iran. Accordingly, gasoline sales plummeted 5.3% m/m, the first monthly decline since January, thereby markedly restraining total sales. Sales excluding gasoline were up a solid 0.7% m/m (5.7% y/y) in June following a 0.9% monthly increase in May. For all of Q2, ex-gasoline sales rose 2.1% q/q, up from 1.1% in Q1.

The control group of sales (total sales excluding food services, autos, gasoline and building materials that the BEA uses to construct PCE in the national accounts) posted another solid increase in June, rising 0.5% m/m (6.4% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.8% monthly increase in May (previously 0.7% m/m). For all of Q2, control-group sales rose 2.2% (9.2% annualized) versus a 1.4% quarterly rise in Q1, auguring a Q2 pickup in consumer spending in the national accounts.

Sales across major sectors were mixed in June. Auto sales added to the May rebound with a 1.9% m/m jump in June on top of a 1.1% monthly increase in May. The 1.7% q/q rise in auto sales in Q2 was the strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2024. Electronic and appliance store sales rose 0.8% m/m in June, more than offsetting a 0.2% m/m decline in May. Sales at sporting goods, hobby and music stores jumped 1.3% m/m in June for a strong 4.8% quarterly gain in Q2, the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2021. Sales of nonstore retailers continue their stronger performance rising 1.9% m/m on top of a 1.4% monthly increase in May and a 1.5% monthly gain in April. Over the first six months of this year, nonstore retail sales have risen 9.6% (20.1% annualized).

By contrast, food and beverage store sales fell 0.2% m/m in June, the first monthly decline in four months. Sales at health and personal care stores declined 0.8% m/m, their second monthly decline in the past three months. Clothing sales fell 0.3% m/m in June. And miscellaneous store sales fell 0.3% m/m, the third monthly decline in the past four months. Sales at food services and drinking places, a popular indicator of discretionary spending, edged up only 0.1% m/m in June, down markedly from a 1.2% monthly gain in May and a 1.0% increase in April. And general merchandise store sales edged up 0.1% m/m in June.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total sales increased 0.2% m/m in June, slightly below expectations, with an upward revision to May.
- Gasoline sales plunged 5.3% m/m, reflecting lower prices.
- Excluding gasoline sales, remaining sales rose a solid 0.7% m/m in June after a 0.9% monthly gain in May.
- Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.5% m/m in June and were up 9.2% at an annual rate in Q2 from Q1.

U.S. Retail Sales in June Slowed by Drop in Gasoline Sales

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The Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo fell 5.6% m/m (+3.0% y/y) to a slightly lower-than-expected 34 in July following a 2.7% decrease to 36 in June (initially -5.4%; 35) and an 8.8% increase to 37 in May (unrevised). July marked the third m/m decline in four months and a three-month low. A reading of 35 had been expected in the INFORMA Global Markets survey. The HMI had remained below the breakeven 50 level since May 2024. The July index, while slightly above 33 in July 2025, was 39.3% below a high of 56 in July 2023 and 62.2% below a record-high 90 in November 2020.

Notably, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.55% in the July 16 week—the highest since the week of August 28, 2025—from 6.49% in the July 9 week, compared to 6.49% during all of June, according to Freddie Mac. The rate was above its recent low of 5.98% in the February 26 week but below a high of 7.22% in the week of May 2, 2024 and a peak of 7.79% in the week of October 26, 2023.

All three HMI components declined this month. The index of present single-family sales conditions fell 2.6% (+2.8% y/y) to 37 in July, the third m/m fall in four months, after a 5.0% decrease to 38 in June. The index was 40.3% below a high of 62 in July 2023 and 61.5% below a record-high 96 in November 2020. The index of expected single-family sales for the next six months slid 4.4% (0.0% y/y) to 43 in July after being unchanged m/m at 45 in June. The index was 34.8% below a high of 66 in December 2024 and 51.7% below a peak of 89 in November 2020. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers dropped 8.0% (+15.0% y/y) to 23 in July after holding steady m/m at 25 in June. The index was 42.5% below a high of 40 in July 2023 and 70.1% below a record-high 77 in November 2020. These three HMI components posted their lowest levels since April.

By region, the HMIs were down m/m in the Northeast and West this month, while up in the Midwest and flat in the South. The index for the Northeast plunged 18.0% (-14.6% y/y) to 41 in July, the first m/m decline since April and a three-month low, following a 13.6% advance to 50 in June. The index for the West fell 7.4% (0.0% y/y) to 25, the lowest level since July 2025, after registering at 27 in June and May. In contrast, the index for the Midwest rose 2.2% (7.0% y/y) to 46, the highest level since December, after holding at 45 in June and May. Meanwhile, the index for the South was unchanged at 31 (+6.9% y/y) in July and June following a 5.9% rebound to 36 in May.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low". The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The regional indexes run back to December 2004.

These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The Informa Global Markets survey is in Haver's **MMSAMER** database.

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- HMI weakens m/m in July, indicating most builders remain pessimistic about the current and near-term housing outlook.
- All three HMI components down, w/ the steepest m/m drop in prospective buyer traffic (-8.0%).
- Mixed regional performance m/m: down in the Northeast (-18.0%) and West (-7.4%); up in the Midwest (+2.2%); flat in the South.

U.S. Housing Market Index Falls in July; Third M/M Decline in Four Months

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The Current Activity Diffusion Index from the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia jumped to 41.4 in July, its highest reading since November 2021, from 10.3 in June. The survey covers the third Federal Reserve District. A reading of 12.0 for July was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. More than 53% of respondents reported increases (up from 32% last month), far exceeding the 12% reporting decreases (down from 22%); 24% of respondents reported no change in current activity (down from 45%). Survey responses were collected from July 6 to July 13.

The headline index is the answer to just one question: whether activity increased, decreased or was unchanged from the previous month. Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from the five key components using the methodology employed to construct the national ISM index. This figure rose to 58.1 in July, the highest reading in a year and a half, from 53.1 in June and well above the critical 50 value that separates contraction from expansion.

For the component indexes, the new orders index rose to 37.0 in July, a nearly five-year high, from 27.3 in June with 50.4% of respondents reporting an increase in orders. The shipments index jumped to 33.7 in July from 14.9 in June with 44.7% of respondents reporting an increase. Delivery times lengthened meaningfully to 9.6 in July from -2.6 in June and -10.4 in May, pointing to incipient supply chain problems stemming from the escalated US-Iran conflict. Employment indicators strengthened in July with the number of employees index rising to 10.0, the highest reading since last December, from 7.9 in June. The average workweek index jumped to 14.0 in July from -6.5 in June.

Respondents continued to report elevated prices, both paid and received. The prices paid index edged up to 53.9 in July from 53.2 in June with 53.9% of respondents reporting paying higher input prices and none reporting a decrease. The prices received index rose to 27.4 in July from 20.3 in July but was still below the 33.5 reading in April just after the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Twenty-seven percent of respondents reported receiving higher prices while none reported receiving lower prices.

The survey’s broad indicators for future activity continued to point to expectations for growth over the next six months, although readings moderated. The diffusion index for future general activity fell 16 points this month to 34.4. The future new orders index fell 26 points to 35.1, and the future shipments index decreased 21 points to 39.3. The firms continue to expect increases in employment over the next six months, but the future employment index inched down 1 point to 29.5. Both future price indexes declined but remained above their long-run averages: The future prices paid index moved down from 63.2 to 56.7, and the future prices received index dropped 26 points to 41.4. The index for future capital expenditures remained elevated but fell 11 points to 30.1.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The indexes range from -100 to +100 with positive values indicating an increase in activity. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The headline index jumped to 41.4 in July, much larger than expected and the highest reading since November 2021.
- The outsized increase was widespread across components with the ISM-adjusted index rising to 58.1, its highest reading since January 2025.
- Prices remained elevated but were little changed in July from June.
- Delivery times lengthened meaningfully, indicating some incipient supply chain problems.
- The survey’s broad indicators for future activity continued to suggest expectations for growth over the next six months, although most readings fell meaningfully.


U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in July

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was at -0.02 in June, up from -0.19 in May (-0.10 initially) and down from +0.05 in April (+0.19 previously), today’s report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed, indicating that economic activity remained slightly below its historical trend in June but improved from May. The latest CFNAI marked the third negative reading in four months. It was above a low of -0.50 in October 2025 and a reading of -0.09 in June 2025 but below a high of +0.39 in February 2025.

The index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, inched up to -0.05 in June from -0.10 in May (-0.03 initially), registering the third negative reading in four months. It was above a low of -0.39 in October 2025 and -0.25 in June 2025 but below a high of +0.07 in February 2025. The CFNAI-MA3 is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the Chicago Fed indicates that an average reading of -0.70 or below is consistent with the economy being in a recession. Thus, the June reading suggested that the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession.

The June reading reflected a m/m decline in one of the four CFNAI key components and two negative contributions. The contribution of the Production & Income index to the CFNAI dipped to -0.05 in June, a three-month low, from -0.03 in May; it was below +0.04 in June 2025 and a high of +0.36 in February 2025 but above a low of -0.61 in January 2024. The contribution of the Sales, Orders & Inventories index increased to +0.01 in June, the first positive reading since February, from -0.09 in May; it was above a low of -0.20 in April 2025 and -0.06 in June 2025 but below a high of +0.16 in March 2025. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours index contributed -0.04 in June, unchanged from May; it was above its recent low of -0.13 in February and -0.07 in June 2025 but below its recent high of +0.05 in January. The contribution of the Personal Consumption & Housing index rose to +0.05 in June, the highest level since March 2025, from -0.03 in May; it was above a neutral value (0.00) in June 2025.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index—which measures the breadth of change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average—slipped to -0.03 in June, a four-month low, from -0.01 in May (unrevised). A string of negative readings was posted during the March 2023 to February 2026 period. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. The June reading was above a low of -0.56 in October 2025 and -0.39 in June 2025 but below a high of +0.14 in September 2022.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- CFNAI up to -0.02 in June, remaining negative for the third time in four months.
- One of four CFNAI components down m/m; two make negative contributions.
- CFNAI-MA3 slightly up to -0.05, third negative reading in four mths.; above -0.70 (recession signal).
- CFNAI Diffusion Index down to -0.03, lowest since February.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Up in June but Still Negative

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**EMERGEMA** → **Türkiye** → International Trade and Balance of Payments → Trade by Mode of Transport

International trade by mode of transport statistics for Turkiye were added to **EMERGEMA**. Imports and exports reported in USD are available for modes of transport such as maritime, road, rail, and air. Monthly data are sourced from the Turkish Statistical Institute and start in January 2013.

Chart: Maritime transport dominates Turkiye’s foreign trade, accounting for roughly 55% of total export and import activities, followed by road transport at about 32%. However, air transport volumes have been expanding rapidly - showing double-digit YTD year-on-year growth throughout 2025 and into 2026 - driven by the growing popularity of e-commerce and the scaling of mega-hubs like Istanbul Airport. Turkiye has become one of the air cargo transit points for Asian merchandise destined for Europe.

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