Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

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DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

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Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

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Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Decades high real price of copper posing physical challenge to investment boom

Winnie Tapasanun

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The U.S. ISM Services PMI inched up to a lower-than-expected 54.1 in July following a 0.5-point decline to 54.0 in June, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management, showing expansion in the services sector for the 25th straight month. The July index was above 50.5 in July 2025 and a low of 49.4 in June 2024, while remaining below its recent high of 56.1 in February and a record-high 67.5 in November 2021. The 12-month average was 53.4, pointing to continued growth in the U.S. services sector. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 54.4 for July.

Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing reading. This index rebounded to 54.3 in July after a 0.5-point decrease to 53.9 in June, signaling expansion for the 14th successive month. The latest reading was above 50.3 in July 2025 and a low of 49.3 in June 2024, albeit remaining below a high of 55.7 in February and a record-high 66.7 in November 2021. These series date back to July 1997.

In the latest services survey, the business activity index rose to 59.1 in July following a 2.3-point drop to 55.4 in June, indicating continued expansion in business activity for 25 months in a row and at the fastest pace since February. The index was above a low of 50.0 in June 2024 but below a peak of 70.9 in November 2021. In July, an increased 31.4% of respondents (NSA) reported higher activity while 10.1% reported an activity decline. The new orders index increased to 57.2 in July after a 2.2-point drop to 55.1 in June, reflecting expansion in new orders for the 14th consecutive month. The index was above a low of 47.2 in May 2025 but below a high of 61.0 in February 2023 and a record-high 69.2 in October 2021. In July, an increased 27.3% of respondents (NSA) reported higher new orders while 13.9% reported declines. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index (NSA) fell to 52.8 in July from 54.4 in June, indicating continued slowing in supplier deliveries for the 20th straight month, albeit at a less pronounced rate than in June, following one month in faster territory in November 2024.

On the labor front, the employment index dropped to 47.4 in July following a 3.3-point gain to 51.2 in June, showing employment activity in the services sector contracted for the fourth time in five months and at the fastest contraction rate since March. The latest reading was above a low of 43.5 in December 2023 but below a high of 54.1 in June 2023 and a peak of 58.9 in April 2021. In July, 14.3% of respondents (NSA) indicated higher employment while an increased 19.0% reported declines.

On the inflation front, the prices index, above 70 for the fourth time in five months, advanced to an elevated 70.3 in July from 67.7 in June, indicating prices paid by services organizations for materials and services had risen (i.e., above 50) since June 2017. The index was above a low of 53.9 in March 2024 but far below a peak of 83.7 in March 2022. In July, an increased 44.7% of respondents (NSA) reported higher prices while only 3.2% reported price declines.

Additionally, the new export orders index rose to 52.0 in July from 50.4 in June, showing new export orders expanded for the fifth time in six months and at the fastest rate since April. The imports index rebounded to 51.8 in July from 49.4 in June, marking the fifth expansion in six months. The inventories index edged up to 51.4 in July from 51.2 in June, indicating inventories expanded for the sixth successive month, while the inventory sentiment index dipped to 52.5 from 52.6, showing continued expansion since May 2023. The backlog of orders index slid to 50.9 in July from 54.9 in June, marking the slowest pace of expansion in six consecutive months following 11 straight months of contraction. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector; below 50 suggests contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- ISM Services PMI slightly up to 54.1 in July, remaining above the 12-month avg. of 53.4.
- Business Activity (59.1) expands for the 25th consecutive mth.; New Orders (57.2) for the 14th straight mth.; Employment (47.4), at a four-month low, contracts in four of five mths.; Supplier Deliveries (52.8 vs. 54.4).
- Prices Index (70.3) elevated and above 70 for the fourth time in five mths., indicating prices rising since June ’17.

U.S. ISM Services PMI Edges Up in July, Indicating Expansion for the 25th Straight Month

Sandy Batten

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U.S. nonfarm private sector payrolls rose a significantly less-than-expected 44,000 in July, the smallest monthly gain since January, following a downwardly revised 95,000 increase in June (previously +98,000), according to the ADP National Employment Report. The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 75,000 increase. The three-month average slid to 87,000 from 107,000 in June.

Employment growth slowed across all business sizes in July. Employment at small firms (less than 50 employees) rose 23,000, the smallest monthly gain since January, following a 53,000 increase in June. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) edged up 8,000 in July versus a 29,000 increase in June. Employment at large firms (500 or more employees) increased just 13,000 in July, the weakest performance since March, after a 23,000 increase in June.

Goods-producing jobs fell 3,000 in July, the first monthly decline since December 2025. Construction employment edged up 1,000 while manufacturing employment rose 2,000, its third consecutive monthly gain. By contrast, employment in natural resources and mining fell 6,000 in July, its third consecutive monthly decline. Service-producing jobs increased by 47,000 in July, the smallest monthly gain since March, following a 93,000 increase in June. The largest monthly gain in July was a 36,000 increase of education and health services jobs, but this was the smallest monthly increase in this sector since August 2025 and down from a 48,000 increase in June. The financial sector added 10,000 jobs in July while professional and business services gained 9,000 jobs. By contrast, leisure and hospitality jobs fell 11,000 and trade, transportation and utilities jobs declined 8,000.

By major region, private-sector payrolls rose 37,000 in the Northeast, the largest monthly gain since March 2024, 9,000 in the South and 7,000 in the West. By contrast, payrolls fell 9,000 in the Midwest, the first monthly decline in four months.

Wage growth for job changers accelerated further in July with the y/y growth rate rising to 7.0%, the fastest pace since August 2025, from 6.8% in June and 6.5% in May. A faster pace of wage growth for job changers may indicate some supply constraints in parts of the labor market. By contrast, wage growth for job stayers was unchanged at 4.4% y/y for the fourth consecutive month. By industry, wage growth picked up to 5.0% y/y in manufacturing and to 5.2% in financial activities but either slowed or was unchanged in the other sectors.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Private sector jobs rose only 44,000 in July versus 95,000 in June.
- Goods-producing jobs fell 3,000, the first monthly decline in seven months.
- Service-producing jobs rose 47,000, the smallest monthly increase in four months.
- Wage growth for job changers picked up for the second consecutive month.

U.S. ADP Employment Disappoints in July

Robert Brusca

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The total or composite PMIs in July released by S&P showed mixed performance although the average and median readings for the 25 reporters improved slightly month-to-month. The average reading rose to 52 in July from 51.3 in June, and the median reading rose to 52.2 from 50.8.

**Contraction is mostly avoided, but not rare**
In July, seven of the reporters showed total PMI gauges below 50, indicating that those economies are contracting. The seven economies with that characteristic are France, Russia, Brazil, Zambia, Ghana, Egypt, and Qatar. For the most part, these are smaller economies. France, of course, is a large European economy; Russia is engaged in its ongoing war with Ukraine, which is taking a toll on its economy; and Brazil is one of the large BRIC economies.

**The contracting count worsened, then stopped**
In June, nine countries had PMIs below 50, the same as in May. Over broader periods, such as three months, 10 countries show PMI values averaging below 50. That compares to seven over six months and six over 12 months. The slippage has actually progressed from 12 months to six months to three months, then improved on monthly data.

**Contraction seems more structural than cyclical**
The shaded parts of the table correspond to PMI values below 50. We see that there's a long string of those readings in France, Russia, Egypt, and Qatar. For those countries, the one-month appearance of a below-50 reading in July was not episodic; it was structural. Germany has had two months in a row and a three-month average below 50; however, Germany turned stronger in July. The European Monetary Union as a whole had two months below 50 as well as very weak three-month and six-month averages, but it also turned higher in July. Zambia has a recent string of ongoing weakness; Ghana has a nearly unbroken streak of values below 50 as well. Brazil’s signal is like a flashing light.

**There is good news**
However, the good news is that only eight of the reporting areas actually got weaker month-to-month in July, compared to nine in June and 11 in May. Over three months, we see 13 areas reporting PMIs that have weakened month-to-month. That compares to 21 that weakened over six months. On year-over-year comparisons, only 11 are weaker period-to-period. The weakening trend is much reduced in the recent monthly data.

**Lingering weakness**
PMIs chronicle a great deal of lingering weakness, although for the most part conditions aren't worsening month-to-month over the past two months. However, there are a number of areas where activity, as designated by the PMI values, is declining. The sequential readings confirm that the growing weakness is a real factor and has only reversed in the last two months, if that result can be durable. How much of this weakness and subsequent rebound is linked to the war in Ukraine and the new deterioration and stalemate in the Middle East; those up-and-down dynamics are going to be hard to puzzle out.

**Activity and performance assessments**
The queue percentile standings show that 12 of the 25 reporting entities have standings below their medians on data back to January 2021. That means nearly half are weaker in July than they have been on readings back to January 2021. On that timeline, conditions have not been strong, with an average diffusion (PMI) reading across the board of 52.3 and a median of 51.4. It has been a low-growth period in general.

**The rich get richer? Even if only slowly...**
The large, developed economies, for the most part, have PMI rankings and queue standings above their 50th percentiles. The exception is the United Kingdom, with a 47.8 percentile standing. The exceptions also include the BRIC countries: Russia having a 26.9 percentile standing, India with an exceptionally low 9.0 percentile standing, Brazil with an 11.9 percentile standing, and China with a 22.4 percentile standing.

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**The future remains chaotic**
There's been some flirtation with better numbers and some improved data, especially in manufacturing. The global economy, battling through its recovery from COVID, dealt with an inflation problem that developed. While avoiding a significant recession (just suffering an induced short one), it is still dealing with special factors that have emerged since COVID ended, including U.S. tariffs, war in Ukraine, war in Iran, and the knock-on effects on oil and commodities markets.

Total PMIs Show Confused Trends

Jonathan Basile

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The June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) portrayed less optimism for the U.S. labor demand picture as the second quarter came to an end. After running up to a two-year high in April, total nonfarm job openings fell 178,000 in June after May’s 48,000 decline. This left the current level of 7.359 million up a modest 2.2% compared to a year ago. Looking farther back, job openings loosely traveled in the 7.0-7.5 million range since June 2024. The latest showing reinforced the sideways track for labor demand.

Total nonfarm hires had the same feel to them. Back-to-back moderate gains in May (37,000) and June (96,000) saw hires come in at a 5.348 million rate at second quarter’s end. Hires stood just 0.4% above the June 2025 figure. Relative stability in hires goes as far back as late-2023. The current figure fits within the 5.1-5.6 million range since that point.

Total nonfarm quits rose 79,000 to 3.232 million in June, up from a downwardly revised 3.153 million in May. The current job openings level is nearly in line with readings from six months ago (December’s 3.225 million) and twelve months ago (June 2025’s 3.254 million). The year-over-year (YoY) rate of -0.7% was still in the red, though.

To be sure, since September 2022, quits have posted 43 YoY declines over a 46-month span. The compression streak continues to stand figuratively above (but literally below) the other two longest since the December 2000 inception of the series: 26 of 27 months from December 2001 to February 2004 and 33 straight from June 2007 to February 2010. Quits’ persistent compression translates to persistent wage disinflation impulses from this cyclical money grab dynamic.

Nonfarm layoffs were little changed in June, rising a mere 5,000 following May’s 94,000 advance. This left the YoY comparison at -4.2% in June. For perspective, the current 1.766 million level of layoffs nearly bisected the 1.6-1.9 million range that has been in place since July 2024. Since bottoming in 2022, nonfarm layoffs have moved in a similar manner to the higher frequency series, weekly continuing claims. JOLTS layoffs lag continuing claims, but the sideways movement at least through June is not suggestive of a notable improvement in the news from pink slips anytime soon.

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The nonfarm hires-separations spread acts as a channel check for the monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment (NFP). The JOLTS report implies that NFP revisions for May and June could disappoint significantly to the downside. The hires-separations spread in May and June was -8,000 and -3,000, respectively. This compares with respective monthly NFP gains of 129,000 and 57,000.

Were this risk realized, it would be the first back-to-back net NFP downward revisions since November and December 2025. This would change the tone of recent revisions back to pessimism from optimism as three of the four months from January to April saw net upward adjustments. In every month of 2025, NFP monthly changes were revised down from the first print to the third print. This would makes the January to April 2026 stretch look more like an aberration than a trend.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Sideways tracks reinforced for job openings and hires.
- Quits continue to signal wage disinflation.
- Hires-Separations point to May and June downward nonfarm payroll revisions.

U.S. JOLTS: Labor Demand Takes a Breather in June

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Total factory orders unexpectedly fell 0.3% m/m in June following a 1.1% decline in May and a 5.3% advance in April, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.4% m/m June increase. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 7.4% in June from 2.5% in May (+5.6% in June 2025), while remaining far below the April 2021 peak of 39.6%. Factory orders excluding defense fell 0.4% (+6.5% y/y) following a 1.1% May decline and four successive m/m gains. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector slid 0.4% (+8.8% y/y), the first m/m slide in eight months, after a 2.0% May increase.

Notably, orders for mining, oil field & gas field machinery plunged 27.2% (+27.1% y/y) in June, the first m/m fall in three months and the deepest since April 2016, reversing an 11.0% gain in May. Orders for defense aircraft & parts dropped 7.2% (+46.9% y/y) in June after increasing 8.9% in May and 2.4% in April, and orders for ships & boats fell 3.9% after rising 3.5% and 5.0% in the prior two months, while orders for nondefense aircraft & parts rose 3.7% following a 51.1% May plunge and a 167.4% April surge.

Durable goods orders rose 0.5% (7.6% y/y) in June after a 4.0% drop in May (revised up slightly from +0.3% m/m in the advance report on July 27), marking the third m/m gain in four months. The June m/m rise was led by a 3.2% advance (16.8% y/y) in computers & electronic products, followed by increases of 1.6% (7.6% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 1.3% (17.8% y/y) in primary metals, and 0.3% (14.8% y/y) in machinery. In contrast, durable goods orders for fabricated metal products (-0.6%; +10.7% y/y), furniture & related products (-0.4%; +1.1% y/y), and transportation equipment (-0.1%; +1.2% y/y) declined m/m in June.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, fell 1.2% (+7.1% y/y) in June, the first m/m fall since November, after a 2.2% increase in May. The June m/m decline was led by a 6.3% drop (+21.8% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, followed by decreases of 1.6% (+0.7% y/y) in textile products, 0.8% (+8.8% y/y) in apparel, 0.4% (-3.3% y/y) in textile mills, and 0.1% (-2.9% y/y) in printing. To the upside, the following nondurable goods shipments rose m/m in June: leather & allied products (+4.9%; -2.7% y/y), plastics & rubber products (+0.7%; +3.6% y/y), food products (+0.4%; +1.4% y/y), paper products (+0.3%; +2.4% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (+0.1%; +2.0% y/y), and chemical products (+0.1%; +8.3% y/y).

Total shipments fell 0.2% (+8.2% y/y) in June, the first m/m decline since November, after increases of 1.6% in May and 1.3% in April. Excluding transportation, shipments fell 0.3% (+7.6% y/y), the first m/m fall since October, following a 1.6% May gain. Shipments of durable goods industries rose 0.8% (9.1% y/y), the seventh straight m/m increase, after a 1.1% May rise. This reflected m/m gains in almost all durable goods shipments categories, led by a 2.5% advance (9.6% y/y) in computers & electronic products, alongside rises of 1.8% (10.0% y/y) in machinery, 1.0% (7.2% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 1.0% (6.5% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods, 0.8% (15.5% y/y) in primary metals, 0.6% (7.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.4% (10.8% y/y) in transportation equipment, and 0.4% (2.2% y/y) in wood products. In contrast, durable goods shipments for furniture & related products (-0.5%; +1.0% y/y) and nonmetallic mineral products (-0.5%; +2.7% y/y) fell m/m in June.

Unfilled orders rose 0.6% (8.3% y/y) in June, the 11th consecutive m/m rise, following a 0.7% increase in May. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders climbed 0.9% (5.4% y/y), also up for the 11th straight month, after a 1.1% May rise. Backlogs of durable goods grew 0.6% (8.3% y/y) in June, driven by gains of 1.6% (6.5% y/y) in primary metals, 1.1% (6.0% y/y) in machinery, and 1.0% (5.0% y/y) in computers & electronic products, partially offset by a 0.4% decline (-2.1% y/y) in furniture & related products.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (1.8% y/y) in June, the eighth successive m/m increase, after a 0.2% rise in May. Excluding transportation, inventories were virtually unchanged m/m (+1.9% y/y) following four consecutive m/m gains. Durable goods inventories rose 0.3% (2.2% y/y) in June, the ninth straight m/m rise, after a 0.1% uptick in May, while nondurable goods inventories fell 0.3% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m decrease since January, following a 0.4% May increase.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Factory orders -0.3% (+7.4% y/y) in June, second straight m/m decrease; still 14.0% above the Jan. ’24 low.
- Durable goods orders +0.5%, third m/m gain in four mths.; nondurable goods orders -1.2% and shipments -0.2%, first m/m declines since Nov.
- Mining, oil field & gas field machinery -27.2%, steepest m/m drop since Apr. ’16.
- Transportation orders -0.1%, led by m/m falls of 7.2% in defense aircraft orders and 3.9% in ships & boats.
- Unfilled orders +0.6%, 11th straight m/m rise.
- Inventories +0.1%, eighth consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Unexpectedly Decline in June

Michael J. Moran

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The US trade balance improved slightly in June, as a drop in imports exceeded a dip in exports. The declines represented partial offsets to strong performances in the early months of the year. Exports posted average monthly gains of 3.6% (not annualized) in the first four months of 2026 before giving back a good portion of the gains in May and June (off 3.2% and 0.9%, respectively). Imports rose an average of 2.8% per month from February to May, with these gains sandwiched between drops of 2.0% in January and 1.8% in June.

The ups and downs in exports and imports have left a largely flat trend in the US trade balance, with the monthly deficit in line with the results seen before the tariff-induced noise in 2025. However, results this year have moved within a noticeably wider range, suggesting that the frequently changing tariff regime is generating noise in the monthly trade flows.

The breakdown of trade flows between goods and services reinforces the view that markets have not settled into an equilibrium in a world of higher US tariffs. Exports and imports of services (generally not subject to tariffs) have changed modestly and moved along generally smooth paths. Exports and imports of goods, in contrast, have shown sizeable monthly changes (charts below).

The effect of international trade on US GDP growth in the past year has resembled the flat trend in the trade deficit. Net exports have made no net contribution to GDP growth in the past four quarters, but the quarterly results have ranged from a contribution of 1.6 percentage points in 2025-Q3 to -1.0 percentage point in 2026-Q2 (and contributions of -0.2 percentage point in 2025-Q4 and -0.4 percentage point in 2026-Q1).

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Both exports and imports cool after strong performances in early 2026.
- The US trade balance is moving sideways within a wide range.

US International Trade in June: Searching for Normal

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Swiss HICP inflation in July was zero month-to-month. In June, it was zero month-to-month. In May, it was 0.1% month-to-month. Year-over-year HICP inflation is 0.7%, compared to a year ago when it was 0.1% over 12 months.

The same metrics viewed through the domestic measure of Swiss inflation are even lower. In July, domestic prices rose 0.1%; in June, they fell by 0.1%; and in May, they were unchanged. The 12-month inflation rate for the Swiss CPI in July was 0.4%; a year ago the 12-month change was 0.2%. Pinch me! Am I dreaming?

And yes, Switzerland is on the same planet as the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom.

Swiss inflation going back to 2020 has a peak year-over-year rate in its core of 2% based on monthly data. The headline 12-month rate at its peak was 3.4%. Excluding administered prices, the peak inflation rate in Switzerland was 2.7%. One of the main things that Switzerland has going forward is that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has incredible credibility. It waited as long as the Fed did to raise interest rates, but it raised rates quickly up to the level of the core inflation rate. Once inflation began to fall, the SNB continued to raise rates until it became clear that the policy rate had begun to hover above the inflation rate. At that point, the bank flattened out its rate profile, then turned into a rate-cutting mode.

Once again after the inflation rate had been arrested and fell below 1%, the SNB continued to cut rates until inflation was at zero and so were rates.

The U.S. has not had the same experience with inflation. U.S. inflation has lingered and the Federal Reserve has continued to hold its policy rate above the 12-month trailing inflation rate.

Swiss performance is unique, suggesting that monetary policy right now is not needed to control inflation, at least not in Switzerland. But this undoubtedly has a lot to do with expectations about the behavior of the SNB and the dynamics of the Swiss economy and capital markets.

Swiss inflation began to track the 1% mark in early 2024. The core rate fell into line at the same time, with very little lag. This also is very unlike the U.S. experience.

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The Federal Reserve likes to tout its credibility. However, it's hard to see a central bank crowing about its credibility when it's missing its inflation target for five years; it continues to miss its inflation target as it observes inflation is still stubborn and possibly accelerating, and yet doing nothing about it.

The Federal Reserve makes policy in a way that is deeply rooted in the concepts of modern neo-Keynesian theory, policies that have completely embraced to the point of smothering the concept that expectations matter. Treasury Secretary Bessent has authored an article in _The International Economy_ magazine entitled “The Fed’s ‘Gain of Function’ Monetary Policy” in which he is critical of this idea that by talking to markets the Fed can change expectations and control inflation. While this is a precept of modern monetary economics, it only works if the central bank is as good as its word and the Fed has been far from that. So, it's unclear how a central bank, with an inflation target that it is (or has been) ambivalent about hitting, carries the credibility to hit it in the future when it's only willing to put forth a de minimis effort.

Switzerland is an example of how well monetary policy can work and how well expectations can work when the central bank really has credibility. The Federal Reserve knows how important credibility is and so it tries to assert that it has it. However, credibility is not the kind of thing that you can assert. It's the kind of thing that a central bank has to earn. When Powell was Fed Chair, he tried to harken back to the days of Paul Volcker and say, “see what we can do.” However, it was clear to everyone that Powell was not Volcker, and he was unwilling to do any of the things that Volcker did.

As that played out, Powell eventually took this system of inflation targeting that Bernanke had put in place and turned it into a system of unemployment rate targeting and began a process of missing the inflation target for five years running. At some point, the Fed pays the price for that, and the price it pays is an erosion of its credibility. But that is something the Fed is never going to admit that it has lost. Switzerland is the perfect example of what it looks like when a central bank has that credibility. Monetary policy works much better and is almost effortless.

Switzerland

Swiss Inflation: Nonexistent; Switzerland: Existent!

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The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a higher-than-expected 55.6 in July following a 0.7-point decline to 53.3 in June, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management. The July reading, above the 50 expansion-contraction threshold, indicated the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the seventh consecutive month and at the fastest pace since May 2022. A reading of 53.8 for July had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest manufacturing PMI, while above a contraction-level 48.4 in July 2025 and a low of 47.0 in October 2024, remained below a peak of 63.8 in March 2021.

The production index rebounded to 58.5 in July from 52.2 in June, indicating production expanded for the ninth straight month and at the strongest pace since November 2021. The index was above a low of 44.8 in April 2025 but below a peak of 66.5 in March 2021. In July, 25.1% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while 10.4% reported lower production. The new orders index increased to 56.7 in July from 56.0 in June, signaling new orders grew for the seventh consecutive month following four successive months of contraction. The index remained well above a low of 41.8 in January 2023 but below a high of 67.0 in May 2021. In July, 25.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 14.2% reported declines. The inventories index slipped to 51.2 in July from 51.4 in June, marking the second month of expansion following 13 months of contraction. The index was slightly below a high of 52.7 in March 2025 but above a low of 43.8 in October 2024. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index rose to 58.9 in July from 57.4 in June, indicating slowing delivery performance for the eighth straight month after faster deliveries in November 2025. In July, 21.3% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while 3.5% reported faster speeds.

On the labor front, the employment index advanced to 52.8 in July from 49.7 in June, showing employment expanded for the first time since September 2023 and at the highest level since August 2022. The index was above a low of 44.1 in November 2025 but below a high of 56.5 in March 2022. In July, 16.3% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 13.3% reported lower hiring.

On the pricing front, the prices paid index declined to a still-high 71.1 (NSA) in July following a 9.1-point drop to 73.0 in June, indicating raw materials prices rose for the 22nd consecutive month but at the slowest rising pace since February. The index remained well above a low of 39.4 in December 2022 but below a high of 87.1 in March 2022 and a peak of 92.1 in June 2021. In July, 50.2% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while 8.1% reported price declines.

In other ISM series not included in the composite index, the new export orders index rebounded to 53.0 in July from 48.5 in June, indicating new export orders grew for the second time in three months and at the highest level since March 2022. The index was up from a low of 40.1 in May 2025 but down from a peak of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index climbed to 55.7 in July from 52.9 in June, suggesting imports expanded for the sixth successive month and at the strongest rate since June 2021. The index was above a low of 39.9 in May 2025 but below a peak of 61.0 in June 2021. The order backlog index increased to 55.0 (NSA) in July from 50.5 in June, showing backlog levels grew for the seventh straight month and at the fastest pace since February. The index was below a high of 56.6 in February and a peak of 70.6 in May 2021 but well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- ISM Mfg. PMI up to 55.6 in July; seventh straight month above 50.
- Production (58.5) reaches highest level since Nov. ’21 and expands for the ninth consecutive mth.; new orders (56.7) for the seventh successive mth.
- Employment (52.8) above 50 for the first time since Sept. ’23; at highest level since Aug. ’22.
- Prices Index (71.1) at a five-month low, still indicating prices rising for the 22nd straight mth.
- Exports (53.0) highest since Mar. ’22; imports (55.7) highest since June ’21.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at Highest Level Since May ’22; New Orders, Production, and Employment Growing

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For the second consecutive month, the employment report disappointed. Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July with significant downward revisions to both May and June, according to today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected an increase of 85,000. The 129,000 increase previously reported for May was revised down to 63,000 while the much lower-than-expected 57,000 increase previously reported for June was revised down to 20,000. The average gain over the past three months fell to 20,000 from 77,000 in June while the average increase over the past six months declined to 44,330 from 74,830 in June. Both remain stronger than in the second half of last year but in the past two months have slowed from the pace exhibited in the spring.

In contrast to the headline figure, private-sector payrolls posted a 30,000 increase in July. However, this was still much lower than the expected 79,000 increase, and there were also significant, though smaller than for the headline figure, downward revisions to both May and June (totaling 55,000). Government employment fell 53,000 in July, almost completely accounted for by a surprising 49,600 decline in local government education jobs.

The weaker-than-expected payroll report was once again reinforced by a weak report from the **household survey** for July. While the number of unemployed fell 178,000, the third consecutive monthly decline, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged down to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, the number of employed fell 87,000, the fifth monthly decline in the past six months, on top of a 507,000 plunge in June. The labor force continued its sharp fall, declining 264,000 in July following a 720,000 drop in June. The labor force participation rate decreased to 61.4%, its lowest reading since February 2021.

On a slightly brighter note, wage growth was well behaved. Private sector average hourly earnings, a key variable for the Federal Reserve, edged up a less-than-expected 0.1% m/m in July, the smallest monthly gain since last December. The 3.2% increase from a year ago was the lowest May 2021. Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.3% m/m rise. Wages in private service-producing firms were unchanged and advanced just 2.9% from a year ago, the slowest pace of advance since May 2021. Goods-producing wages rose 0.3% m/m (4.1% y/y) in July, up slightly from a 0.2% monthly increase in June.

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In the **establishment survey**, goods-producing jobs increased a solid 25,000 in July, the largest monthly advance since March, led by a 22,000 rise in construction jobs. Manufacturing jobs rose 5,000 in July, the second consecutive monthly gain. Private-sector service-producing jobs rose only 5,000 in July, the weakest performance since a 127,000 decline in February. Job performance varied significantly across sectors. Surprisingly, leisure and hospitality was the weakest sector with jobs declining 40,000 in July on top of a 43,000 decline in June. There were expectations that the World Cup would generate additional leisure and hospitality jobs, but this obviously has failed to pan out. Retail trade jobs fell 19,400 following a 3,700 decline in June. Financial activities jobs declined 14,000, the fifth consecutive monthly decline. By contrast, private education and healthcare jobs increased 25,000 in Jul, though this was well below the 60,000 monthly increase averaged over the previous four months. Professional and business services jobs rose 18,000, and information jobs gained 11,000, the first monthly increase in four months.

The breadth of private job growth narrowed in July from June with the one-month diffusion index falling to 51.8 from 53.2, though still above the key 50 level that indicates that more industries were adding jobs than losing them. Moreover, the six-month diffusion index rose to 55.0 in July, its highest reading since January 2024.

The length of the workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours in July, where it has been for the past four months. The aggregate weekly hours index was also unchanged in July as it had been in June. The goods-producing workweek edged up to 40.2 hours in July, the highest since January 2023, from 40.1 in June. The private service-producing workweek was unchanged at 33.2 hours in July.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 23,000 in July with meaningful downward revisions to both May and June.
- The market consensus looked for an 85,000 increase.
- The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, its lowest since June 2025, from 4.2%, due mostly to another significant decline in the labor force.
- Average hourly earnings edged up 0.1% m/m (3.2% y/y), meaningfully lower than expectations.

U.S. Payroll Employment Unexpectedly Declined in July

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