Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Sharp drop in China demand for oil helping to limit impact of Middle East conflict on the price

Robert Brusca

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**The Economic Situation**: This month the ZEW series from German financial experts shows improving economic situations. Two of the four featured economies improve: the euro area improves to a reading of -21.5 in August from -37.7 in July, and the German economy advances to -61.1 from -77.6. The U.S. worsens to a reading of 12.9 in August from 14.9 in July, and the Chinese assessment is nearly unchanged at -25.1 in August compared to -25.2 in July. Apart from these diffusion readings and quite different from the diffusion readings is the Chinese ranking in a top position with a 73.8 percentile standing. The euro area has a 56.6 percentile standing. The U.S. has a 41.7 percentile standing. Germany has a 30.9 percentile standing. Only China and the euro area have standings above the 50th mark, which place them above their historic medians for their respective periods.

**Macroeconomic expectations**: Macroeconomic expectations are provided for the country-level readings for Germany, the U.S., and China. All three countries make an improvement in August, with the largest improvement coming from Germany and the smallest improvement coming in China. The standings show that, in terms of macroeconomic expectations, Germany’s economy has a 58.8 percentile standing, the U.S. has a 48.2 percentile standing, close to its median but below it, and China has a 41.5 percentile standing.

**Inflation expectations**: The inflation expectations poll in August compared to July shows all countries with a drop off, including large drop-offs, in inflation concerns. Euro area expectations fall to 2.4 in August from 10.4 in July. In Germany, that expectation falls to a net diffusion reading of 1.8 from 14.9 in July. There is a sizeable drop off in China too, which logs 5.3 in August compared to 12.9 in July. The U.S. improvement is smaller at 11.8, down from 15.0 in July. While the diffusion readings are different across these countries, the percentile standings are fairly similar. The euro area, Germany, and China all have percentile standings in the range of roughly 36th to 38th percentile, while the U.S. percentile standing is lower at its 26th percentile. Despite what we are seeing in markets, the ZEW experts are undeterred in their inflation outlooks.

**Expectations for short-term rates**: Short-term interest rate expectations don't change in the euro area. There is some further backing off in the U.S. and substantial downshifting in China where there's a sign change to -2.1 in August from plus 8.8 in July. In August, the euro area has a nearly 80th percentile standing for its diffusion value. The U.S. has a slightly below-median 48th percentile standing, and China has a slightly above median standing at its 52nd percentile.

**Long-term rates moderate**: Long-term interest rate expectations show some moderation in August to pair with moderate queue standings. Germany falls to 24.2 in August from 27.7 in July, the U.S. steps back to 27.7 from 30.8 in July, and China backs down to a diffusion value of 12.3 from 17.0 in July. Germany and the U.S. have rankings around their 33rd percentile mark, while China has a ranking around its 55th percentile mark. Despite the lower diffusion reading, Chinese long-term rate expectations are high relative to historic experience in relation to the U.S. and Germany.

**Upbeat on Stocks**: One interesting feature is the positive outlook on stocks in August, with all four responding areas, the euro area, Germany, the U.S., and China, logging diffusion values close to 40. These are up from readings that were bunched around the 20 to 25 diffusion mark in July. Despite the clustering of the diffusion values, the queue percentile standings vary quite a lot. For China, the current reading, which is the weakest diffusion reading for stocks in the table of the four, has a 92.3 percentile standing. The U.S. has a 74.4 percentile standing, and the euro area has a 59.3 percentile standing. Germany has the lowest percentile standing, just below its median at a 49.7 percentile mark.

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The ZEW experts seem to be expecting a greater prospect of short-term interest rate increases based on the queue standings they report this month. Inflation expectations are relatively low by historic standards; however, that doesn't mean that interest rates can't or won't increase. Long-term interest rates seem to be in a pretty good spot, with 33rd percentile standings, except for the higher standing in China. All around, the ZEW experts are quite upbeat on the prospects for stocks that are well-supported by the low queue standings for things like short-term rate expectations, inflation expectations, and stable readings particularly in Germany and the U.S. for long-term interest rates. These expectations are particularly helpful in terms of the outlook for the stock market.

ZEW Survey Shows Some Stability and Improvement

Winnie Tapasanun

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The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions unexpectedly rose to 20.6 in August following a 9.9-point rebound to 15.6 in July, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. A reading of 10.0 for August had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The positive August figure indicated that business activity in New York State expanded for the fifth consecutive month and at the fastest pace since December 2021; it was a sharp improvement from 9.1 in August 2025 and a low of -29.7 in January 2024. The percentage of respondents reporting an increase in general business conditions was 43.8% in August, up from 39.0% in July; the percentage reporting a decrease was 23.1%, down from July’s 23.4%. The latest survey was conducted between August 3 and August 10.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity and is not calculated from the components. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. This calculated index declined to 55.4 in August following a 4.1-point gain to 57.5 in July, representing the eighth straight expansion but at a slightly slower pace; it was modestly up from 53.8 in August 2025 and well above a low of 43.0 in January 2024. The index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories, with equal weights (20% each).

In the latest survey, the new orders index fell to 17.3 in August after an 18.7-point jump to 22.2 in July, marking the eighth consecutive expansion but at a slower pace; it was a sharp improvement from a low of -30.7 in January 2024 but a decline from a high of 19.6 in April 2023. The shipments index dropped to 11.7 in August following a 15.8-point recovery to 24.4 in July, representing the fifth successive expansion; it was well above a low of -21.7 in April 2024 but below a high of 21.0 in June 2023. The unfilled orders index jumped to 15.5 in August after holding at 5.0 in July and June, indicating unfilled orders expanded for the seventh straight month and at the highest level since April 2022; the index reached a low of -24.2 in January 2024. The inventories index fell to -5.2 in August following a 4.0-point increase to 4.0 in July, signaling inventories contracted for the first time since January and at the lowest level since August 2025. Meanwhile, the delivery times index rose to 20.6 in August, the highest reading since April 2022, from 13.0 in July, with 26.8% of respondents reporting longer delivery times and 6.2% reporting shorter times, indicating that delivery times continued to lengthen substantially.

On the labor front, the number of employees index decreased to 9.3 in August after a 1.8-point increase to 11.4 in July (the highest level since December 2022), indicating that employment expanded for the seventh consecutive month but at the slowest rate since May. The index remained well above a low of -9.3 in December 2023 but below a peak of 24.9 in February 2022. In August, 14.8% of respondents reported an increase in employment while 5.5% reported a decline. The average workweek index rebounded to 6.9 in August, a three-month high, from 2.8 in July (the lowest level since March), remaining positive for the seventh successive month.

Inflation pressures remained elevated in August. The prices paid index rose to 58.6 in August after an 8.7-point drop to 52.3 in July. The index was above a low of 25.9 in December 2024 and a low of 20.8 in December 2023, albeit remaining well below a peak of 84.9 in April 2022. In August, 59.4% of respondents reported higher prices paid while only 0.8% reported lower prices paid. The prices received index slid to 22.7 in August, a four-month low, from 27.6 in July. The index was above a low of 7.5 in December 2024 and a low of 7.7 in July 2023 but far below a high of 51.9 in March 2022. In August, 26.6% of respondents reported higher prices received while 3.8% reported lower prices received.

Firms remained optimistic about the future business outlook in the latest survey. The index for future business conditions increased to 32.1 in August, the highest level since May, after a 2.2-point easing to 27.9 in July, with 47.0% of respondents expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months. Future new orders climbed to 37.1 in August, the highest level since March 2022, from 33.2 in July, and future shipments rose to 33.7, a seven-month high, from 30.6. Growth in future employment accelerated to 28.2, the highest reading since March 2022, from July’s 14.4. Capital spending plans remained positive for the 10th straight month in August, with the future capital expenditures index rising to 16.5, a five-month high, from July’s 15.0. Expected prices paid rose to 57.7 in August from a four-month-low 53.0 in July, and expected prices received increased to 48.7 from a three-month-low 41.9.

The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- General Business Conditions Index up 5.0 pts. to 20.6 in Aug.; fifth straight expansion.
- New orders (17.3) down 4.9 pts. and shipments (11.7) down 12.7 pts. from a four-year high, both still indicating expansion.
- Unfilled orders (15.5), highest since Apr. ’22; inventories (-5.2), first contraction since Jan.
- Employment (9.3), a three-month low following July’s highest level since Dec. ’22.
- Prices paid (58.6) up 6.3 pts. from July; prices received (22.7), a four-month low.
- Firms remaining optimistic: Future Business Conditions Index up to 32.1, a three-month high; future prices paid rising to 57.7 from a four-month low.

U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Surprises to the Upside in August, Highest Since Dec. ’21

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Japan's industrial production was revised up to show a 2.2% gain in June after falling by 0.5% in May. Industrial production in Japan is accelerating, showing a 2.5% growth rate over 12 months, a 7.9% annual rate over six months, rising to a 9.8% annual rate over three months. Manufacturing is accelerating in step with the total industry measure.

Key industries like textiles and transportation show acceleration underway or something close to it. In the case of transportation equipment, a 6.4% growth rate over 12 months rises to 14.7% over six months, although it steps back to a 12% growth rate over three months. That's still a great acceleration over its growth rate for the full 12 months, doubling that pace.

Japan's mining industry shows all negative numbers, with declines in each of the last three months and with sequential growth rates showing sharper and faster declines in output over shorter periods.

Utilities delivering gas and electric services showed a sharp decline of 4.7% in June. Sequential growth rates for this sector are negative as well but equivocally decelerating. We see a -7.1% pace over 12 months, which improves to -6.4% over 6 months, and then worsens sharply to a -14.4% annualized rate over three months.

The just-ended quarter (quarter-to-date) shows industrial production up 2.4%, with manufacturing up only 0.8%, both at annual rates. Consumer goods output is up with a sharp 5.4% annual rate in the quarter, and intermediate goods output is up by 1.2%. Investment goods output is declining at a 1.1% annual rate, and mining is falling at a 16.5% annual rate. Electricity and gas utilities show growth rates in the quarter as negative as well.

Japan has had a difficult run since COVID struck. All of the industry breakdowns in the table show declines compared to their levels of activity in January 2020, five and a half years ago. That is stunning and widespread weakness. The economy is adapting. Manufacturing is showing some encouraging acceleration over the past year despite challenges aided by yen weakness. Global conditions are still touch-and-go with such high oil prices and turbulent conditions in the Middle East.

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Japan

Japan’s IP Emerges as Stronger

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Total retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% m/m to $763.6 billion in July after increases of 0.2% in June (unrevised) and 0.9% in May (+1.0% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed, pointing to a soft start to Q3 2026. A 0.2% m/m July increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The decline interrupted a streak of five straight m/m gains dating back to February. The year-on-year growth rate decelerated to 5.0% in July, the lowest since March, from 6.8% in June (4.1% in July 2025); it remained far below a high of 17.1% in February 2022 and a record-high 51.8% in April 2021.

Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales unexpectedly decreased 0.3% (+5.8% y/y) in July following a 0.2% decline in June and five consecutive m/m gains. A 0.2% m/m July increase had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts fell 1.8% (+1.9% y/y), the first m/m fall since April, reversing a 2.4% June rise; this compared to a 1.0% decline (-1.3% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales after a 2.6% June advance.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, fell 0.4% (+4.6% y/y) in July after a 0.4% increase in June, snapping a string of gains since January. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials slid 0.3% (+4.7% y/y), the first m/m slide since December, following a 0.4% June increase.

Sales by category showed mixed performance in July. To the downside, nonstore retail sales decreased 2.2% (+7.7% y/y) in July, the biggest m/m decline among major categories, after a 0.9% rise in June and a streak of gains dating back to January. Gasoline station sales fell 0.9% (+16.2% y/y) following a 5.8% June drop and four consecutive m/m increases. Electronics & appliance store sales, down for the second time in three months, declined 0.5% (+4.7% y/y) in July after holding steady in June. Meanwhile, sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales were virtually unchanged m/m (+10.1% y/y) after five straight m/m rises.

To the upside, clothing & accessory store sales rebounded 1.9% (5.0% y/y) in July following a 0.7% decline in June. Miscellaneous store sales grew 0.5% (10.7% y/y), the smallest of three successive m/m increases, after a 2.1% June gain. Building materials & garden equipment store sales climbed 0.3% (6.7% y/y), the ninth straight m/m rise, on top of a 1.2% June increase. Furniture & home furnishing store sales grew 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) after a 0.1% June easing. General merchandise store sales rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y) in July after a 0.2% increase in June; within this category, department store sales edged up 0.1% (2.5% y/y) following a flat June reading.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales recovered 0.7% (1.1% y/y) in July, up for the second time in three months, after a 0.4% decline in June. Food & beverage store sales were essentially unchanged m/m (+0.9% y/y) following a 0.1% June dip and three consecutive m/m rises.

Consumers appeared to dine out more frequently in July despite still-high inflation (July CPI +0.1% m/m, +3.4% y/y; core CPI +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y). Restaurant & drinking place sales rose 0.5% (5.0% y/y) in July, the fifth m/m gain in six months, after an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in June (+0.1% initially).

Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total retail sales -0.6% (+5.0% y/y) in July vs. +0.2% (+6.8% y/y) in June.
- Ex-auto sales -0.3% (+5.8% y/y), second successive m/m decline; auto sales -1.8% (+1.9% y/y), first drop since Apr.
- Ex-gas sales -0.6% (+4.2% y/y) and ex-auto & gas sales -0.2% (+4.8% y/y); both up m/m from Jan. to June.
- Retail control group -0.4% (+4.6% y/y) after six consecutive m/m increases.
- Declines m/m: nonstore sales (-2.2%), gasoline stations (-0.9%), electronics stores (-0.5%).
- Gains m/m: clothing stores (+1.9%), health & personal care stores (+0.7%), misc. stores (+0.5%), restaurants (+0.5%).

U.S. Retail Sales Disappoint in July Following Five Straight M/M Gains

Andrew Cates

**AI-related global growth revisions**
The most striking feature of this month's forecasting round is not the level of growth but the pattern of the revisions. Over the past six months Blue Chip forecasters have raised their 2026 growth projections for the economies most exposed to the artificial-intelligence investment cycle and the trade associated with it — Taiwan and South Korea in particular — while lowering them for parts of the West, including Australia, Canada and the euro area. A revision in a single economy reflects local conditions; the same revision across several at once reflects something broader: a cycle tilting towards the producers of AI-related capital goods and away from those more dependent on consumer demand — and on oil (chart 1).

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**Investment-led resilience in the United States**
In the United States, where the headline growth forecast has been trimmed only marginally, the composition of growth has become more investment-led. Business capital spending — directed towards data centres, electrification and the reshoring of supply chains — has been revised progressively higher through the year, even as the overall growth projection has held broadly stable (chart 2). Whether this proves durable will depend on whether the spending raises the economy’s productive capacity or largely defends existing positions; for the present it remains a principal support for the expansion.

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**Inflation and the supply side**
That expansion has so far proceeded without a corresponding rise in inflation. Price data have continued to come in below expectations even as measures of supply-chain pressure have turned higher — a divergence that in previous cycles tended not to persist (chart 3). The most plausible interpretation is that firms are for now absorbing higher input and transport costs within their margins rather than passing them on. It is a benign configuration, and part of the reason markets have been able to look through the geopolitical backdrop, though possibly not a durable one: the gap between cost pressure and consumer prices is precisely what a further energy shock would be likely to close.

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**The role of Chinese demand**
Still, a further energy shock has so far been avoided, and the explanation lies less in Middle Eastern supply than in Chinese demand. Renewed conflict might in other circumstances have pushed crude prices sharply higher; instead, subdued activity in China has reduced its crude imports by several million barrels a day relative to late 2025, limiting the effect of any disruption to supply (chart 4). The composition of those imports has also shifted, with discounted Russian and sanctioned Iranian volumes displacing Gulf supplies, so that the Gulf’s share has fallen even as total imports have declined.

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**Global imbalances and the yen**
The re-widening of global current-account imbalances has acquired fresh significance against the backdrop of Japan’s recent intervention in the currency market. China’s external surplus has returned to near-record levels while the United States’ deficit has widened towards one, leaving the gap between the world’s largest surplus and deficit economies at its widest in more than a decade (chart 5). Large external surpluses are held as large stocks of foreign assets, and the coordinated action to support the yen — financed in part from Japan’s substantial reserves, much of which are invested in US Treasuries — is a reminder that the management of those holdings now carries direct implications for global bond markets. That the surpluses of the major creditors are no longer recycled into Western government debt as readily as in the past is also possibly one reason for why US long-term yields have been elevated.

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**The longer-run energy transition**
A final chart lengthens the horizon well beyond the week. Across thirty-one countries and a quarter of a century, the share of electricity generated by wind and solar has risen from a negligible level at the turn of the century to around a sixth of the world’s total today, and considerably more in the leading economies (chart 6). The progression is barely perceptible from one month to the next but unmistakable over longer periods — a reminder that the more consequential shifts in the global economy tend to occur gradually, and to continue irrespective of the immediate news.

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Global markets kept a composed tone this week even as the backdrop grew more unsettled. Renewed fighting in the Middle East lifted oil prices but left equities largely unmoved, the earlier decline in semiconductor shares having faded as earnings held up; long-term interest rates continued to grind higher, with the increase concentrated in real yields rather than inflation expectations; and the major central banks, having diverged over the course of the year, are now expected to move in different directions. Inflation, for its part, remained subdued. The charts that follow take up these themes. The first two draw on this month’s forecasting round: growth expectations for 2026 have been revised up across the AI-exposed economies of Asia and trimmed across much of the West, pointing to a global cycle growing at two speeds (chart 1), while in the United States the resilience of the expansion increasingly reflects business investment rather than household spending (chart 2). The next two concern the benign inflation backdrop: price data have continued to undershoot forecasts even as supply-chain pressures have edged higher (chart 3), and the oil market has remained well supplied in part because Chinese import demand has fallen sharply (chart 4). The final two look beyond the cycle: the current-account imbalance between the United States and China has widened close to record levels, a theme given fresh salience by Japan’s recent currency intervention (chart 5), while the longer-run shift towards wind and solar power has continued largely irrespective of the week’s events (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: Beneath the Calm

Michael J. Moran

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The Producer Price Index fell for the second consecutive month in July, but the latest change was almost imperceptible (-0.03%), and the drop in June was modest (-0.1%). The dips helped to slow the rate of inflation, but the year-over-year change remained elevated at 4.7%, up from a rate of approximately 3.0% around the turn of the year.

Lower energy prices account for most of the recent softness in the PPI, dropping 3.1% in July after a fall of 6.5% in June. However, restraint from the energy sector could well be short lived, as prices of most grades of gasoline in early August were above averages in July. Food prices also have eased in the past two months, dropping 0.5% in July and 0.9% in June.

The declines in food and energy prices are certainly welcome, but they do not signal the end of inflation as an issue, as underlying price pressure remained evident in the July PPI. The Bureau of Labor Statistics monitors producer prices excluding food, energy, and trade services to assess the underlying rate of inflation. This measure rose noticeably in the early months of the year, pulling the year-over-year inflation rate to 5.0% in May. It has improved slightly in the past two months, but it remained elevated at 4.7%.

The upward pressure on this “core” measure in the early months of the year was evident in both goods and services. The prices of goods excluding energy rose at an average rate of 0.5% in the first five months of the year. Goods prices ex-energy have barely changed in the  past two months, but the year-over-year change still totaled 3.8%. Prices of services rose at an average rate of 0.6% in the first four months of the year before easing to an average rate of only 0.1% in the past three months, but the year-over-year change remained brisk at 3.9%.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Both the food and energy components have declined in the past two months.
- Other items have decelerated recently, but the rate of inflation remained uncomfortably high.

July PPI: Restrained by Volatile Items; Underlying Inflation Remained Rapid

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 9,000 to 209,000 in the week ending August 8 from 200,000 in the week ending August 1, revised from 199,000. The four-week average was 199,000 in the August 8 week, unchanged from the prior week. Claims have been largely range-bound for most of the year between 200,000 and 220,000. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 203,000 claims to have been filed. 

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”— declined by 22,000 to 1. 777 million in the week of August 1 from 1.799 million in the week of July 25, revised from 1.801 million. The four-week moving average declined to 1.786 million in the August 1 week, from 1.791 million in the July 25 week. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2% in the week of July 25. 

The insured unemployment rate varies greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending July 25, the highest unemployment rates were in Oregon (2.03%), Minnesota (2.05%), Massachusetts (2.15%), Rhode Island (2.26%), New Jersey (2.61%), and Puerto Rico (2.65%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.29%), Florida (0.37%), North Carolina (0.41%), Alabama (0.42%), Louisiana (0.43%), and Arkansas (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.94%), New York (1.71%), Pennsylvania (1.68%), Illinois (1.57%), and Texas (1.10%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.


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- New claims rose by 9,000 to 209,000 in the week of August 8.
- Continuing claims declined by 22,000 to 1.777 million in the week ending August 1.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of August 1.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Edged Up in the Week of August 8

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Industrial production in the euro area was flat in June, interrupting a four-month string of increases that had been in place. Despite the flatness and the decline in manufacturing output in the month, trends still show that output is on an expanding path. Consumer goods output was particularly strong in June, up 2.7% month-to-month, led by a 3% increase in nondurable goods output. However, intermediate goods output fell by 0.8%, and capital goods output fell by 1.4%. Growth is a matter for the weighting-game more than a statement about breadth.

The sequential calculations that give us a look at trend show that output is accelerating overall, barely growing at a 0.1% pace over 12 months, edging up to a 0.6% annual rate over six months, and culminating at a 2.5% annual rate over three months. Manufacturing output similarly has a slow start but builds a head of steam to grow at a 2% pace over three months. Consumer goods output ramps up very sharply. Although it declines by 0.8% over 12 months, over three months it is up at a 38.3% annual rate, led by strong expansion in consumer nondurables with output surging at a 43.9% annual rate over three months. However, consumer durable goods are still lagging, with output falling by 2.7% over 12 months, although it is rebounding at a 1.8% annual rate over three months.

The story across countries is varied with many European economies showing output declines in June. Of the 14 early-reporting European economies in June, nine showed declines in output in the month. For individual European economies, Germany and Spain are on accelerating paths, while Italy, Luxembourg, and Greece are posting decelerating output patterns.

In the quarter to date, output is rising for most industrial categories across the monetary union. The exception is consumer durables, the only category showing a decline on a quarterly basis with the second-quarter results now in. Manufacturing output is up at a 4.6% annual rate in the quarter. Consumer goods output is up to a 12.3% annual rate. Intermediate goods output is up at a 4.2% annual rate, and capital goods output is advancing at a 3.4% annual rate. Of the 14 European countries summarized in the table, Austria, Malta, Greece, and Portugal are the only countries showing quarter-to-date declines in the second quarter.

For the most part, these readings are upbeat, showing acceleration in most of the overall European manufacturing categories. However, when we evaluate annual growth rates compared to historic norms, all of the industrial categories for the monetary union are below their historic medians except for intermediate goods output. Across the European economies reporting in this table, only five have output speeds taking them above their historic medians. Those are Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Greece. All the rest of the reporters are below the 50% mark. The median ranking across the monetary union economies is at its 44.5 percentile.

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Manufacturing in the monetary union hits a bit of a flat spot in June; however, it still continues to carry momentum from its earlier months, especially over three months. Obviously, conditions in the Middle East and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz are overhanging the industrial sector, and they will be important factors in how the sector performs from here through the rest of the year. As of June, conditions are carrying momentum, but that could change. The overview for Europe is an industrial sector that is expanding, mostly accelerating with more varied results across countries. Individual members show considerable variance in their performance. Compared to historic norms, year-over-year growth rates are mostly weaker than their median pace has been.

Europe

EMU IP Flat to Lower on the Month

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Mortgage applications edged down 0.4% w/w (-10.6% y/y) in the week ending August 14, after rising 3.6% w/w (-11.6% y/y) in the week ending August 7, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 2.0% w/w (-3.4% y/y) in the latest week, following a rise of 2.5% (-1.4% y/y) in the August 7 week.  Applications for loan refinancing rose 1.5% w/w (-18.4% y/y) in the August 14 week after rising 5.0% w/w (-22.2% y/y) in the August 7 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan was unchanged at 6.96% in the week ending August 14 from the week ending August 7, remaining at levels not seen since July/August 2025. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages declined 4bps to 6.29% in the August 14 week from 6.33% in the August 7 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate edged up 2ps to 6.85% in the latest week from 6.83% in the in the August 7 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM declined by 4bps to 6.26% in the August 14 week from 6.30% in the August 7 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 41.9% of total applications in the week of August 14 from 40.7% in the week ending August 7. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity declined to 7.7% in the latest week from 7.9% in the August 7 week.

The average size of a mortgage declined by 1.4% w/w (-3.5% y/y) to $374,100 in the week ending August 14 after inching down 0.7% w/w (-4.9% y/y) to $379,300 in the week ending August 7. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.2% w/w (+2.7% y/y) to $440,500 in the August 14 week after a similar decline of 0.2% w/w (+3.4% y/y) to $441,300 in the August 7 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage dropped 2.4% w/w (-17.0% y/y) to $282,200 in the latest week after declining 0.7% w/w (-21.1% y/y) to $289,200 in the August 7 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase declined, while applications for loan refinancing rose in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans was unchanged at 6.96%.
- Average loan size declined.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Edged Down in the August 14

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**CMDTY** → Spot Prices → Shanghai Metals Market Prices

We expanded our metal prices offering sourced from Shanghai Metals Market in the **CMDTY** database. Twenty-four new prices were added to this table including battery-grade lithium carbonate, three rare earth metals, four rare earth oxides, and fifteen minor metals. Daily data start as early as December 2006.

Chart: Erbium is a heavy rare earth element with a narrow but strategically significant demand profile anchored in telecommunications infrastructure. Secondary applications include laser technology, nuclear reactors, and certain alloys. These use cases position erbium as a heavy rare earth with genuine industrial demand but without the supply scarcity or explosive demand growth of magnet elements such as dysprosium and terbium. Erbium’s price trajectory is therefore more stable and is less exposed to the EV and wind turbine demand cycles that dominate rare earth investment narratives.

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**TRANSPRT** → Vehicle Statistics → **Singapore** → Motor Vehicle Registrations by Vehicle & Fuel Type

Motor vehicle registration statistics by class of vehicle and fuel type for Singapore were added to the **TRANSPRT** database. Vehicle classes include cars, taxis, motorcycles, goods transport vehicles, and buses. Fuel type detail includes petrol, diesel, full electric, and various forms of hybrid technologies. These monthly data are sourced from the Land Transport Authority and start in January 2016.

Chart: Although fossil fuel-powered cars still outnumber cars with EV technology by a margin of more than 2 to 1, the rate of EV technology adoption in Singapore has been significant. In January of 2016, the margin was 90 to 1. The total stock of passenger cars has increased by a modest 8.5% in the last decade in Singapore, but during this time we have seen a decrease in the stock of fossil fuel-powered cars decrease by 23%. During this same period, registrations of electric and hybrid cars increased by 2,900%, making Singapore a regional leader in EV technology adoption.

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- Freight transport cost statistics for Russia were added to the **TRANSPRT** database.
- We expanded our metal prices offering sourced from Shanghai Metals Market in the **CMDTY** database.
- Motor vehicle registration statistics by class of vehicle and fuel type for Singapore were added to the **TRANSPRT** database.

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