Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 7,000 to 221,000 (-7.9% y/y) in the week ended July 12 from 228,000 in the previous week, which was revised from 227,000. Initial claims have declined for five consecutive weeks. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 233,000 initial claims for last week. The four-week moving average of initial claims edged down to 229,500 from 235,750, revised from 235,500. It was the lowest level since the first week of May.

In the week ended July 5, the total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – rose to 1.956 million (4.8% y/y) from 1.954 million in the prior week. The previous week’s level was revised down by 11,000 from 1.965 million.

In the week ending July 5, the insured rate of unemployment (the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment) was unchanged at 1.3% for the sixth straight week. It has increased from 1.2% since the beginning of 2023 and 1.0% in November 2022.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ended June 28, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.49%), Rhode Island (2.48%), Puerto Rico (2.43%), Minnesota (2.17%), California (2.11%), Massachusetts (2.03%) and Washington (2.01%). The lowest were in South Dakota (0.29%), Florida (0.37%), North Carolina (0.46%), and Alabama (0.48%). Rates in other notable states include Pennsylvania (1.83%), Illinois (1.65%), New York (1.62%), and Texas (1.22%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims have declined for five consecutive weeks.
- Continuing claims rose slightly in the July 5 week.
- Insured unemployment rate was unchanged for the sixth consecutive week.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fell in Latest Week

Robert Brusca

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The National Australia Bank (NAB) survey for June shows a jump in Australia’s business confidence to 5.1 from 2.2 in May and those compared to a reading of -0.7 in April. The sequential averages show a steady improvement from a 12-month average of 0.2 to a six-month average of 1.3 and to a three-month average of 2.2. The monthly May reading is at 2.2. With the June reading moving up to 5.1, it looks like this progression toward improvement remains in train.

**Smoothed assessments**
Smoothing out the monthly data shows that the three-month smoothing operation switches the progression from 12-months to six-months to three-months to reveal improvement that has stalled out. Looking at 12-month averages, there's an improvement over six months compared to 12-months, and then a slight set-back over three months.

**Components**
The components over three months show improvement in train for about half of the categories, compared to 43.8% improving over six months and 25% improving over 12 months. The sense of improvement across categories has been broadening over the more recent periods.

**Standings**
Percentile standings on the data back to 2002 show above-median standings in seven of the thirteen survey categories. Over this period, business confidence itself ranks slightly below its median with a 49.5 percentile standing; the median occurs at a standing of 50-percentile. The index of business confidence is currently close to its median on this, but slightly below it. However, the rankings for the three-month moving average and the 12-month moving average both are considerably lower, indicating that much of the improvement that we see in the Australian index is relatively recent.

**Summing up**
Australia remains caught up in tariff negotiations with the United States along with every other country, a factor that extends uncertainty and could be holding back progress in the economy. However, the current survey suggests that progress is in train, nonetheless.

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Australia

Aussie Business Confidence -National Australia Bank Survey

Tom Moeller

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The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged (2.3% y/y) in June after rising 0.3% in May, revised from 0.1%, and easing 0.3% in April, revised from a 0.2% fall, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% increase in June. Producer prices excluding food, energy & trade services also were unchanged (2.5% y/y) after a 0.1% May gain, and falling 0.2% in April, which was revised from -0.1%. A 0.2% increase had been expected.

Food prices rose 0.2% (3.3% y/y) in June after holding steady in May. Finished consumer food prices rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) after increasing in May. Energy prices for final demand rose 0.6% (-2.6% y/y) last month after falling 0.3% in May. Finished consumer energy prices rose 0.9% last month (-1.7% y/y) after a 0.6% increase.

Final demand services prices continued to hold back overall pricing pressure last month with a 0.1% dip (+2.7% y/y), following a 0.4% increase. Final demand trade services prices held steady (+2.9% y/y) after surging 1.1%, while the trade of finished goods index remained unchanged (+2.8% y/y) following a 1.2% surge. Transportation & warehousing prices fell 0.2% (+2.5% y/y) after a 0.4% gain in May. Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing eased 0.1% last month (+2.6% y/y) after improving 0.1% in May.

The price index for final demand goods less foods & energy increased 0.3% (2.5% y/y) in June following a 0.2% increase. Nondurable consumer goods prices less food & energy rose 0.1% (2.3% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Durable consumer goods prices rose 0.4% (2.4% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. The private capital equipment price index improved 0.3% (3.2% y/y) for the second straight month. Government prices less food & energy rose 0.4% (2.9% y/y) after increasing 0.2% in May.

Construction costs rose 0.3% (1.6% y/y) in June after rising 0.2% in May.

Prices for intermediate demand of processed goods edged 0.1% higher (1.9% y/y) in June for the second consecutive month. Processed energy goods prices improved 0.6% following a 1.9% decline while processed foods and feeds prices fell 0.3% after rising 0.7% in May.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Unchanged monthly levels extend weakness earlier this year.
- Core price gain slows y/y.
- Final demand price index is steady; services prices decline.

U.S. Producer Price & Core Price Indexes Hold Steady in June

Winnie Tapasanun

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Industrial production (IP) increased a more-than-expected 0.3% m/m in June after no change in May (-0.2% initially) and April (+0.1% previously), data from the Federal Reserve Board showed. A 0.1% m/m June uptick had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate of increase picked up to 0.7% in June after decelerating to 0.6% in May (lowest since December); however, it was down from +1.6% y/y in June 2024. The June IP index was at 104.0, the highest since December 2018 and 2.5% above a low of 101.5 in January 2024.

By **industry groups**, manufacturing production edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y) in June, the fourth m/m increase in five months, after an upwardly revised 0.3% rise in May (+0.1% initially). Durable goods production was essentially unchanged (+1.5% y/y) in June following a 0.7% rebound in May. Within durables, the following categories fell m/m in June, including output drops of 2.6% (-2.2% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts, 2.5% (-1.7% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 0.9% (+2.8% y/y) in wood products, and 0.2% (-1.2% y/y) in fabricated metal products. To the upside, the following durable goods categories rose m/m in June, including output rises of 3.1% (5.0% y/y) in primary metals, 1.6% (5.4% y/y) in aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, 1.3% (-1.9% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.8% (3.3% y/y) in machinery, 0.6% (1.6% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.2% (6.6% y/y) in computer & electronic products, and 0.1% (-1.9% y/y) in miscellaneous durables goods. Notably, aircraft & parts production climbed 1.8% (9.1% y/y) in June, the eighth straight m/m rise, on top of a 0.7% increase in May.

Nondurable goods production rose 0.3% (0.4% y/y) in June, the first m/m rise in three months, following a 0.1% dip in May. The June rise reflected m/m output increases of 2.9% (0.7% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, 0.5% (-5.1% y/y) in apparel & leather goods, and 0.2% (-0.8% y/y) in food, beverages & tobacco. To the downside, the following nondurable goods categories fell m/m in June, including output drops of 1.0% (-3.4% y/y) in textiles & product mills, 0.7% (-2.0% y/y) in printing & related support activities, 0.6% (-2.8% y/y) in plastics & rubber products, and 0.3% (-0.8% y/y) in paper. Meanwhile, production for chemicals held steady (3.2% y/y) for two months.

Utilities output rebounded 2.8% (-0.8% y/y) in June, the second m/m increase in three months, following a revised 2.5% decline in May (-2.9% initially). In contrast, mining activity fell 0.3% (+1.6% y/y), down for the second month in three, after an unrevised 0.1% May uptick.

By **market groups**, materials production recovered 0.4% (1.3% y/y) in June, up for the second month in three, following a 0.1% easing in May. Construction supplies production rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y), the fourth m/m rise in five months, after a 0.1% May uptick. Consumer goods output increased 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) in June following no change in May, reflecting a 1.4% drop (-3.4% y/y) in durable consumer goods and a 0.7% rebound (0.0% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods. Business equipment output inched up 0.1% (3.2% y/y), the eighth straight m/m increase, on top of a 0.8% May rise.

In **special classifications**, factory output of selected high-tech industries rose 0.5% (13.2% y/y) in June, the sixth m/m rise in seven months, after an upwardly revised 1.9% gain in May (+0.4% initially). Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech industries inched up 0.1% (0.5% y/y) in June, rising for the fourth month in five, following a 0.3% increase in May; manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts rebounded 0.3% (0.7% y/y), up for the first time since March, following a 0.1% May easing.

Capacity utilization rebounded to 77.6% in June from a four-month-low 77.5% in May (77.4% previously). The Action Economics Forecast Survey forecasted 77.4%. The June reading was 2.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization increased to 76.9% in June, the highest since March, from 76.8% in May (76.7% initially); the June rate was 1.3 percentage points below its long-run average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- June IP +0.3% (+0.7% y/y), led by a 2.8% rebound in utilities output.
- June IP Index at the highest level since Dec. ’18.
- Mfg. IP +0.1%, w/ durables unchanged and nondurables up 0.3%.
- Mining activity -0.3%, the second m/m fall in three months.
- Key categories in market groups all increase.
- Capacity utilization up 0.1%pt. to 77.6%; mfg. capacity utilization up 0.1%pt. to a 3-month-high 76.9%.

U.S. Industrial Production Rises in June After Holding Steady for Two Months

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Mortgage applications fell 10.0% (+18.4% y/y) in the week ending July 11, after rising 9.4% w/w (36.6% y/y) in the week ending July 4, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading broke the string of three consecutive w/w rises. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 11.8% (+13.7% y/y) in the July 11 week, following a rise of 9.4% (25.4% y/y) in the July 4 week. Applications for loan refinancing dropped 7.4% (+25.2% y/y) after rising 9.2% (55.8% y/y) in the July 4 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 5bps to 7.00% in the week ending July 11, from 6.95% in the week ending July 4; it was up from a low of 6.29% in the September 20 week but down from a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 12bps to 6.32% in the latest week from 6.20% in the July 4 week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the September 20 week. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans rose 6bps to 6.94% in the July 11 week from 6.88% in the July 4 week; it was up from a low of 6.57% in the September 13 week. Meanwhile, the rate on a 5-year ARM edged down 4bps to 6.24% in the latest week from 6.28% in the July 4 week; it was above a low of 5.84% in the September 13 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 41.1% of total applications in the week ending July 11 up from 40.0% in the week ending July 4. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity dropped to 7.1% in the July 11 week from 7.7% in the July 4 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan, down for the fourth week in five, fell 2.8% (+3.0% y/y) to $375,500 in the July 11 week, following a decline of 1.3% w/w (+4.5% y/y) to $386,400 in the July 4 week. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.9% (+2.9% y/y) to $428,900 in the July 11 week, after declining 2.5% (+1.8% y/y) to $432,600 in the July 4 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage dropped 5.6% (+6.1% y/y) to $299,200 in the latest week, after rising 1.1% (18.8% y/y) to $317,100 in the July 4 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both purchase applications and refinancing loan applications fell in July 11 week.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose to 7.0%.
- Average loan size declines for the fourth time in five weeks.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped 10.0% in the Latest Week

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Inflation in the United Kingdom is still running hot in June. The CPIH rose by 0.4% in the month with its core rate that excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages & tobacco also rising 0.4% month-to-month. In both cases, these increases compare to a rise of 0.1% in May. On that perspective, the two-month trend is somewhat muted. However, in April the CPIH headline rose by 0.6% and the core rose by 0.4%, so the U.K. finds itself in another period of excess inflation.

**Sequential inflation**
The sequential inflation rate from 12-months to six-months to three-months shows the headline at 4.1% over 12 months, 4.2% over six months and 4.3% over three months, a very slight acceleration, but clearly inflation that is over 2 percentage points above the target set by the Bank of England across the entire span. The core rate for the CPIH is up 4.3% over 12 months, up at a 4.4% annual rate over six months and looks slightly muted at 4.2% over three months. Again, we are looking at a solid inflation overshoot that is more than 2 percentage points above the target set by the Bank of England.

**Inflation breadth**
In the month of June, inflation accelerated in 45% of the categories, the same proportion as in May; however, in April acceleration occurred in 54% of the categories. These sequential data show that over three months inflation in the U.K. accelerated across 54% of the categories, the same proportion as over six months although both of those marks were below the 63% acceleration breadth logged over 12 months. The data clearly show that there isn't any deceleration to any great extent in play over any of these horizons and that the monthly data offer only a modicum of solace for June and May.

The far-right hand column evaluates current inflation rates year-over-year compared to where they have been since January 2000, monthly. The comparison is a ranked percentage of the current inflation rate vs. this history. For example, the current CPIH 12-month inflation rate of 4.1% sits at the 88.6 percentile of its historic queue of data. This tells us that inflation has been this high or higher, less than 12% of the time over this period, clearly marking the 4.1% growth rate as high and as substantial by historic experience. The CPIH core has a slightly higher standing and it's 89th percentile. Looking across the components, all but two have rankings over this 50%. Rankings that are above 50% place them above their medians for the period. The exceptions here, are a 26.5 percentile standing for restaurants & hotels inflation where prices are running at 2.6%, and transportation where prices are running at 1.6%.  Furniture, household equipment & maintenance prices have a 56.2 percentile standing, only marginally above the category’s historic median. After that, there's only one category in its 60th percentile, two categories in their 70th percentile and the rest are higher.

**Summing up**
Needless to say, the U.K. has an entrenched inflation problem. It's lodged in the headline; it's lodged in the core; it's lodged across most of the commodity categories! The Bank of England simply has work to do and there isn't much evidence that the BOE is making any progress; in fact, the trends seem to suggest that there may be much more work to do.

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United Kingdom

U.K. CPIH Inflation Runs Hot

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The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in June after rising 0.1% in May and increasing 0.2% in April. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 2.7% y/y increase in the headline CPI in June compared to 2.4% in May and remained below the 9.1% peak in June 2022. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.2% last month after a 0.1% uptick in May and a 0.2% April gain. A 0.3% rise had been expected. The 2.9% y/y June rise compared to 2.8% in May, still well below the 6.6% peak in September 2022.

Energy prices rose 0.9% (-0.8% y/y) last month after falling 1.0% in May. Gasoline prices strengthened 1.0% (-8.3% y/y) after falling 2.6% in May. Fuel oil prices rose 1.3% (-4.7% y/y) after rising 0.9% in April. Natural gas prices rose 0.5% (14.2% y/y) following a 1.0% decline, and electricity prices gained 1.0% (5.8% y/y) after rising 0.9% in May.

Food prices rose 0.3% in June (3.0% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Egg prices fell 7.4% (+27.3% y/y), the third straight month of sharp decline. Meat, poultry & fish prices rose 0.8% (+4.1% y/y) after easing 0.1%, while dairy product prices declined 0.3% (0.9% y/y) after easing 0.1% in May. Cereal & bakery product costs eased 0.2% (0.9% y/y) after a 1.1% increase while fruit & vegetable prices rose 0.9% (0.7% y/y), following a 0.3% gain. Nonalcoholic beverage prices strengthened 1.4% (4.4% y/y) in June after falling 0.3% in May.

Goods prices less food and energy rose 0.2 (0.7% y/y) in June after holding steady in May. Prices of used cars and trucks fell 0.7% (+2.8% y/y) last month, after falling 0.5% in May, while new vehicle costs weakened 0.3% (+0.2% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Apparel prices rose 0.4% in June (-0.5% y/y) and reversed the prior month’s 0.4% decline. Appliance prices surged 1.9% (0.8% y/y), after increasing 0.8%. Home furnishings prices jumped 1.0% (1.7% y/y) after rising 0.3%. Recreation	 product costs rose 0.8% (-0.8% y/y) in May, doubling the May increase. Education & communication product costs held steady last month (-3.3% y/y) after rising 0.1% in May. Medical care goods prices rose 0.1% (NSA, 0.2% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in May.

Services prices less energy moved up 0.3% (3.6% y/y) last month following a 0.2% May gain. Shelter prices rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) last month after two months of 0.3% increase as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.3% (4.2% y/y), the same as in May. The cost of lodging away from home declined 2.9% (-2.5% y/y), the fourth straight month of decline. Rents of primary residences gained 0.2% (3.8% y/y), the same as in May. Transportation service prices moved up 0.2% (3.4% y/y) after easing 0.2% as the cost of motor vehicle insurance edged up 0.1% (6.1% y/y) in June after strengthening 0.7% in May. Public transportation costs increased 0.4% (-2.7% y/y) after falling 2.5% during May. The cost of medical services increased 0.6% (3.4% y/y) after a 0.2% increase, and the cost of recreation services rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in May. Education & communication services prices rose 0.1% (1.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

**The Economic Implications of Tariff Increases** from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found [here](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2025/07/economic-implications-of-tariff-increases/#wp--skip-link--target).

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- Monthly increase is highest in five months. Core gain moves up minimally.
- Energy costs post solid increase.
- Both core goods and core services prices move higher.

U.S. Consumer Price Index Strengthens in June

Sandy Batten

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The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions jumped nearly 22 points to 5.5 in July from -16.0 in June, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. A reading of -8.5 for July had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The unexpected positive reading in July indicated that business activity in New York State increased for the first month since February. The percentage of respondents reporting an increase in general business conditions in July rose to 32.4% from 16.9% in June while the percentage reporting a decrease fell to 26.9% from 32.9%. The July survey was conducted between July 2 and July 10.

The headline index just reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. This calculated index increased to 54.7 in July, its highest reading since July 2022 and well above the critical 50 value that separates expansion from contraction, from 48.6 in June. The calculated index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each).

The July jump reflected meaningful increases in most component indexes. The new orders index rose to 2.0 from -14.2. The shipments index increased to 11.5 from -7.2. Unfilled orders edged up to -6.4 from -8.3. Delivery times lengthened to 8.3, the highest reading since July 2022 and possibly an early indication that trade policy uncertainty is beginning to disrupt some supply chains, from 1.8 in June. Moreover, the relatively new supply availability index fell deeper into negative territory at -11.0 versus -8.1 in June. Inventories rose markedly to 15.6 in July, the highest reading since November 2022, from 0.9 in June.

On the labor front, the index for the number of employees rose five points to 9.2, and the average workweek index rose to 4.2, the first positive reading in eight months. This marks the first time that both indexes have been positive since 2022, suggesting that both employment and hours worked increased in July. Sixteen percent of respondents reported an increase in employment, the highest since March 2023, versus 14.6% in June while only 6.9% reported a decline in employment, the lowest since June 2022, down from 9.9% in June.

The prices paid index rose nine points to 56.0, pointing to a pickup in input price increases, while the prices received index held steady at 25.7, suggesting that selling price increases remained moderate though elevated relative to normal pre-pandemic levels. Slightly more than 29% of respondents reported an increase in prices received in July, the same as in June.

Firms remained fairly optimistic about the outlook. The index for future general business conditions edged up to 24.1 from 21.2 in June, suggesting that, on the whole, businesses expect activity to increase in the months ahead. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and supply availability is expected to be little changed. Capital spending plans jumped markedly to 9.2 in July from -7.3 in June and -6.7 in May.

The headline index reflects the answer to only one question concerning general business conditions and is not calculated from the components. The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- The first positive reading for the index since February.
- The July jump reflected widespread increases across components.
- Evidence of some nascent supply-chain problems.
- Outlook six months ahead continues to brighten.

FRBNY Empire State Manufacturing Index Jumped 22 points in July

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Total housing starts increased 4.6% (-0.5% y/y) in June to 1.321 million units (SAAR) after falling a little-revised 9.7% in May to 1.263 million, revised from 1.256 million, and rising 3.2% in April to 1.398 million, revised from 1.392, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Total starts in June were 27.4% below their peak of 1.820 million units reached in April 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.30 million starts in June.

Single-family starts in June fell 4.6% (-10.0% y/y) to 883,000 after declining 2.3% in May to 926,000, revised from 924,000, and holding steady at 948,000 in April, revised from 920,000. Multi-family starts rebounded 30.0% in June (26.6% y/y) to 438,000 after declining 25.1% in May to 337,000, revised from 332,000, and increasing 10.6% to 450,000 in April, revised from 472,000.

All of the increase in starts last month was due to a 73.3% surge (52.9% y/y) in the Northeast to 182,000 units, following a decline of 42.6% in May. Offsetting this increase, starts in the South weakened 0.7% (-9.0% y/y) to 674,000 after falling 9.0% in May. Starts in the West declined 1.4% (-1.7% y/y) to 286,000 after rising 22.4% in May. Housing starts in the Midwest declined 5.3% (+1.7% y/y) to 179,000 after falling 18.5% in May.

Building permits improved 0.2% (-4.4% y/y) last month to 1.397 million after falling 2.0% in May and declining 4.0% in April. Single-family permits fell 3.7% (-8.4% y/y) in June to 866,000 after weakening 2.6% in May. Multi-family permits rose 7.3% (+2.9% y/y) after easing 0.8% in May. Building permits fell 11.4% (-7.6% y/y) in the Northeast and in the West, permits fell 5.1% (-9.2% y/y). In the South, building permits rose 4.4% (-4.2% y/y), while in the Midwest, building permits held steady (+4.1% y/y).

The housing starts and building permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Increase recovers half of prior month’s drop.
- Multi-family starts surge but single-family starts fall.
- Building permits rise negligibly after two months of decline.

U.S. Housing Starts Rebound in June

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No one will be critical of Japan’s efforts to free itself of its torpor into disinflation and deflation that it suffered for many years. The Bank of Japan struggled long and hard to remove the contraction in prices from its economy since falling prices can have a pernicious effect on growth and investment. Japan still faces challenges: it has a contracting population and faces dealing with tariff demands from the United States as negotiations on that front continue to drag and have become harder to settle than Japan had expected. Despite the current inflation overshoot, on data back to January 2011, Japan’s to-date inflation is only averaging 1%; that is still well below its 2% target and ample reason for the Bank of Japan to continue to move carefully to corral inflation especially if inflation has stopped accelerating – as it seems to have done. Against this background, we look at Japan’s CPI report.

**Current inflation: June**
Japan has dispatched deflation and currently faces an inflation problem. In June, the BOJ’s preferred gauge for the CPI excluding fresh foods & energy rose 0.4% month-to-month for the second month in a row; it rose by 0.2% in April. Japan’s headline inflation rate seems to have fallen into line A traditional ‘core reading’ excluding all food & energy flies under the BOJ’s target pace. But the BOJ’s preferred inflation gauge shows a 3.4% rise over 12 months and then gains at a pace of 3.7% over both six months and three months. All of those numbers are too hot to handle.

**Line-items**
Education costs in Japan are falling sharply and sequentially. Medical care costs are deescalating too. And while food & beverage prices continue to overshoot, 2% by a wide margin, the pace of total food & beverage inflation has been falling. No broad category has steadily accelerating inflation. But the BOJ’s preferred gauge of inflation, a specialized core measure excluding energy & fresh foods, sees inflation ramping up and staying high over three months and six months.

**Diffusion/breadth**
Among the eight major categories, year-on-year inflation has accelerated compared to where it was one-year ago in four of the eight. Inflation is above the 2% benchmark for four of eight categories as well.

**Acceleration or not...**
The chart on sequential inflation for the BOJ’s preferred core gauge shows that this measure has accelerated since August or December of last year and since then has more or less marked time oscillating without any clear trend.

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**BOJ policy and communication**
With interest rates having been elevated, this may be the peak for inflation rates in the wake of past interest rate increases- but the BOJ moves to-date have been more about communication and signaling than about actual restraint. These sorts of determinations about the impact of policy are always preliminary and never made clear until time passes and we are able to observe how the trend unfolds. Has inflation really peaked or not?

**BOJ actions**
The BOJ has raised its policy rate in very small and careful steps with an eye to not disrupt markets. Until early 2024, the BOJ has promoted a negative policy rate coupled with policy of yield curve control. However, in early 2024 the BOJ switched the -0.1% target rate to +0.1% and then moved it up to 0.25% just after mid-year 2024, then, early in 2025, it hiked it again to 0.5%. These have been cautious step-wise moves that after three hikes leave the official rate higher by less than one percentage point. But it also reversed an eight-year period of having a negative policy rate and one coupled with yield curve control policy. The BOJ’s careful steps may owe to some learning from the Federal Reserve’s SNAFU when it announced a coming end to its policy of QE for the first time creating a ‘taper tantum.’   

**The environment**
While Japan’s economy is growing, it has logged four quarters of negative growth in the past seven quarters (Q/Q). Year-on-year growth is positive for three quarters in a row after two in a row that logged declines. The economy is not strong, but it is growing in Q1; it grew by 1.7% over the past four quarters even though the Q/Q change was -0.2%, annualized.

**Summing up**
The BOJ is taking policy steps slowly with national elections hovering in the background, keeping monetary policy out of the way of election discussions. So far, we would regard the BOJ’s anti-inflation steps as being more about communicating an end to a period of super easy policy than as a frontal-attack on rising inflation. Given that, Japan’s prices declined for many months from August 2020 to March 2020; the BOJ is being careful to try to arrest inflation increases without pummeling prices and restarting deflation. From January 2011 to September 2022, Japan had only 12 (out of 141) months of inflation above 2% on its preferred gauge. It is now on a run of 33 (well 32 out of 33) months in a row with year-on-year inflation at or above 2%. It is understandable that the BOJ is walking on eggshells when it comes to hiking rates. If its inflation requires a monetary brake, the BOJ has more to do. If inflation merely needs to be ‘reminded’ that the period of excess is over, the recent flattening of inflation could be a sign that the message has been heard. A turn lower for inflation may still be achievable without draconian monetary steps.

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