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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

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Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

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Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 5,000 to 210,000 in the week ending March 21, from an unrevised level of 205,000 in the week ending March 14. The four-week average declined 250 to 210,500 in the March 21 week from the unrevised average of 210,750 in the prior week. The Forecast Survey looked for 210,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—declined by 32,000 to 1.819 million in the week ending March 14, from 1.851 million in the week ending March 7 revised from 1.857 million. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since May 25, 2024, when it was 1,804 million. The four-week moving average stood at 1.847 million, a decline of 2,000 from 1.849 million in the week ended March 7. This is the lowest level for this average since October 5, 2024, when it was 1,846 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of March 14. It has remained at that level since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending March 7, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (3.00%), New Jersey (2.80%), Massachusetts (2.70%), Washington (2.40%), Minnesota (2.30%), California (2.20%), New York and Illinois (both 2.10%), Montana (2.07%) and Michigan and Montana (both 2.00%). The lowest rates were in Florida and Louisiana (both 0.30%), and Arkansas, Alabama and North Carolina (all 0.40%). Rates in other notable states include Connecticut (1.90%), Pennsylvania (1.80%), and Texas (1.10%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims rose by 5,000 to 210,000.
- Continuing claims declined by 32,000 to 1.819 million, the lowest level for insured unemployment since May 25, 2024.
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Edged Up in the Week of March 21

Robert Brusca

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**Current global money and credit trends**
Money supply growth accelerated in February over three months compared to six months in the United States and the United Kingdom. In the EMU, money growth backed down from a 6.3% growth rate over six months to a still hot 5.6% over three months. Japan, as always, was the exception, with money growth sinking to a weak 1.5% over three months from 2.1% over six months. And the Bank of Japan still has its sights on raising rates further and bringing the level of interest rates eventually to a normalized level. In the EMU, credit growth accelerated as private credit grew at a 5.4% pace over three months, up from 5.1% over six months.

**Excessive money growth**: Money and credit growth are excessive compared to what would seem to be equilibrium conditions. Those conditions right now have economic growth weak, in the region of 1% to 2%, and monetary targets are 2% all around. All of them are being exceeded—at least in terms of core inflation rates.

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**And yet the policy tilt had been toward more ease**: Central banks had been making ready to cut rates again in their perceived long march back to normalcy for their key benchmark rates. But inflation has been over target since the wake of COVID either for headline inflation, core inflation, or both, depending on the country. Yet, central bankers have been looking to reduce interest rates to perceived long-run equilibrium norms even in the face of excessive inflation. This has been a remarkable and frustrating period for anyone who thought that 2% meant 2%. Central bankers have been engaged in a strange new calculus we could call Wimpy-nomics (in honor of Popeye’s friend) because they would gladly promise you 2% in the future for something excessive today—accompanied by rate cuts.

**Bit-in-the-teeth-onomics**: Even the Trump tariffs did not untrack this train of thought. It spawned more excuses about how it was temporary and could be ignored. The Iran war brought more of that until oil prices hit triple digits; that seems have sobered up some central bankers. Still, in recent central bank meetings the Fed gave us no clues on policy, while both the ECB and the BOE talked of likely hikes if the war was still engaged at the time of their next meetings. And some central bankers try to disabuse us of the notion that policy is not on a preconceived course and is data dependent.

**Growth rules**: Money growth is and has been excessive, and money growth rates have progressed to excessive norms over three months, six months, and even 12 months (in the U.S.). Full employment growth plus 2% should max out money growth; those metrics would put max money growth at 3% or 4%, depending on the country. Maybe U.S. productivity is in gear, and the U.S. can step that up. But so far, the demonstrable excess is inflation, soaking up the extra nominal GDP growth.

**Back from the brink**: The Iran war has brought policymakers back from the brink even if some won’t tell us what they think. ‘Data dependent’ does not begin to cut it because the question is about oil prices—how long they will stay elevated and how high they will go. The rear-view mirror will not answer that question, nor will it set out a reliable trend. So, the concept of data-dependency does not work here. Meanwhile, oil prices are surging, and Iran is refusing to roll over and play dead, even though its leaders have very few options—and none of them are good. The country has no cohesive military left, just a few pockets of some military capability and a population that, if it could, would overrun the leadership over the way it has been abused and steamrolled. Leadership has refused to give in, but if the regime falls, none of its leaders would survive a rebellion by the locals after the way they were treated.

**The operative ‘model’**: The ‘model’ for Iran is catastrophe theory. It will look like the regime is in power until its repressive dam breaks, and then it will be all over. Will the regime hold? That is hard to predict—it’s hard to know—because the regime might even survive. What markets need to know especially about is control of the Strait of Hormuz. Securing that strait is now the policy and military focus. Can the strait be secured if the regime holds on? That may be the critical question we need answered about Iran. The economics are not about money or inflation anymore. The future is about oil more than money, and that is why the future is so uncertain. War is simply not predictable. Money supply is. But even then, central banks may choose to not control it as they should, and as they have promised, as we have seen. Whenever a policymaker has a choice to make, one option is always the wrong one. Let’s hope that is not the one they pick.

Globally Money Supplies Retain Hot Growth

Michael J. Moran

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The current account measures the economic interactions of the US with foreign economies. It could be viewed as a cash flow statement, showing receipts into the US economy and payments to foreign entities. Two broad categories are involved: trade in goods and services and income flows.

The US typically runs a deficit in the current account, registering a shortfall in every quarter since 1991-Q3; it last recorded an annual surplus in 1981. Current account deficits moved to striking levels the past two years, although the results were less alarming when measured as a share of GDP (4.0% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025 versus the record of 5.9% in 2006). Moreover, hints of improvement have emerged recently.

Last year involved considerable volatility in the trade portion of the current account, as President Trump’s tariff threats led to a burst in imports in Q1. The import surge was largely offset in the second quarter, leading to a narrower deficit, but the trade shortfall continued to improve in the third and fourth quarters. Dips in imports of goods in the third and fourth quarters suggest some residual offset to the Q1 increase, but solid growth in exports throughout 2025 after slow results in 2024 suggested that fundamentals might be turning in favor of the US. By the fourth quarter, the deficit in goods and service trade was not far out of line with readings before the pandemic.

The income portion of the current account also showed signs of improvement in the fourth quarter. This section of the current account has two subcomponents: primary income and secondary income. Secondary income covers transfer payments, which are advances for which no goods or services are received in return for the outlay. Examples include personal remittances, pension payments (including Social Security), casualty insurance settlements, and charitable donations. Secondary income flows changed little in Q4.

However, primary income flows jumped in the final months of last year. Historically, the US registered a healthy inflow of primary income, which includes investment income, labor compensation, and miscellaneous items. Primary income, led by the investment component, began to soften around the time of the pandemic, and it moved into negative territory during much of 2024 and 2025. The fourth quarter, though, brought a notable rebound, pulling it into the plus column. The improvement was the result of returns on direct investment rather than on portfolio income, and the new total was far above other recent readings. One wonders about random volatility or a one-time gain, but for now it represents a welcome development.

Balance of Payments data are in Haver’s **USINT** database, with summaries available in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Firm exports boosted the trade component.
- Primary income flows rebounded from soft showings in prior quarters.

Current Account: Notable Improvement in Q4

Winnie Tapasanun

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Import prices rose a more-than-expected 1.3% m/m in February, the largest monthly increase since March 2022, after upwardly revised rises of 0.6% in January (+0.2% initially) and 0.1% in December (+0.2% previously), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 1.3% in February, the highest since February 2025, from 0.3% in January. Export prices advanced a higher-than-expected 1.5% m/m in February, the fastest monthly pace since May 2022, after unrevised increases of 0.6% in both January and December. The y/y rate quickened to 3.5% in February, the highest since September, from 2.6% in January (2.7% in February 2025). The Action Economics Forecast survey had expected m/m rises of 0.4% in import prices and 0.5% in export prices for February. _(**Note**: Import and export price indexes are not directly affected by tariffs because they measure the prices of goods before taxes. Tariffs are classified as taxes and therefore are excluded from these calculations. October 2025 data were unavailable due to the U.S. federal government shutdown.)_

The m/m rise in February import prices reflected a 3.8% rebound (-10.6% y/y) in imported fuel prices after a 1.2% decline in January (-2.2% initially). The fuel price rebound was led by a 24.7% jump (+57.9% y/y) in natural gas, followed by rises of 6.3% (-6.2% y/y) in other petroleum products, 4.6% (-10.5% y/y) in fuel oil, 3.1% (-21.3% y/y) in liquefied petroleum gases, 2.5% (-14.8% y/y) in petroleum & petroleum products, and 1.1% (-17.4% y/y) in crude oil. Nonfuel import prices rose 1.1% (2.5% y/y) in February after a 0.8% increase in January (+0.5% initially). Import prices for the following categories all rose m/m in February: nonfuel industrial supplies & materials (+2.6%; +9.6% y/y), capital goods (+1.3%; +3.9% y/y), foods, feeds & beverages (+0.8%; -3.4% y/y), consumer goods excluding autos (+0.5%; +0.6% y/y), and automotive vehicles & parts (+0.2%; -0.9% y/y).

The February advance in export prices reflected m/m gains in both agricultural and nonagricultural export prices. Agricultural export prices rose 0.7% (2.2% y/y) in February, the fourth m/m rise in five months, on top of a 0.2% increase in January (unrevised). Nongricultural export prices climbed 1.7% (3.8% y/y) after rising 0.7% in January and December. Export prices for industrial supplies & materials (+3.5%; +4.4% y/y), foods, feeds & beverages (+0.9%; +2.8% y/y), consumer goods excluding autos (+0.7%; +4.0% y/y), capital goods (+0.2%; +3.0% y/y), and automotive vehicles & parts (+0.1%; +2.6% y/y) all increased m/m in February.

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Import prices +1.3% m/m (+1.3% y/y) in Feb., led by a 3.8% rebound in fuel import prices.
- Excluding fuels, import prices +1.1% m/m (+2.5% y/y) after a 0.8% Jan. increase.
- Export prices +1.5% m/m (+3.5% y/y), driven by a 1.7% gain in nonagricultural exp. prices.

U.S. Import and Export Prices Jump in February, Exceeding Expectations

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Mortgage applications dropped 10.5% w/w (+25.5% y/y) in the week ending March 20, after dropping 10.9% w/w (+37.5% y/y) in the week ending March 13, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 5.4% w/w (+5.0% y/y) in the latest week after rising 0.9% w/w (11.8% y/y) in the week ending March 13.  Applications for loan refinancing dropped 14.6% w/w (+52.2% y/y) in the week ending March 20, after declining 18.5% w/w (+68.8% y/y) in the week ending March 13.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 14bps to 6.62% in the week ending March 20 from 6.48% in the week ending March 13 and reaching the highest level since the September 26 week when it stood at 6.64%. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 19bps to 6.03% in the latest week from 5.84% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 12bps to 6.61% in the week ending March 20 from 6.49% in the March 13 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM jumped 10bps to 6.00% in the latest week from 5.90% in the week ending March 13, reaching the highest level since the September 5 week when it stood at 6.01%.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan dropped to 49.6% of total applications in the week of March 20 from 52.3% in the March 13 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.1% in the March 20 week from 8.0% in the March 13 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan declined 2.4% w/w (-0.9% y/y) to $394,500 in the week ending March 20, after declining 3.4% w/w (+0.5% y/y) to $404,000 in the week ending March 13. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.5% w/w (+2.3% y/y) to $453,200 in the March 20 week, after a rise of 2.0% w/w (1.0% y/y) to $455,300 in the March 13 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 6.3% w/w (+1.0% y/y) to $334,900, following a drop of 10.1% w/w (+6.9% y/y) to $357,300 in the week ending March 13.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and for loan refinancing dropped in the latest week.
- Double-digit basis-point rises in all interest rates.
- Average loan size declined.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped in the March 20 Week

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The IFO readings for March 2026 show that the all-sector climate fell to -17.9 from -14.9 in February. The current conditions index improved by the smallest amount possible, rising to -2.4 after reaching -2.5 in February. Expectations, however, were clobbered, with the index in March falling to -19.7 after posting a -10.8 reading in February.

This expectations module for businesses in March registers a month-to-month drop of nearly 9 points; it ranks 246th out of 252 monthly changes, marking it as an occurrence that is this bad or worse, only 2.4% of the time (only 7 worse readings in the last 21 years). It's a stunning one-month backtrack in expectations for Germany.

**Early reactions and developments**
We are currently in late March, so the reading reflects some reaction to the Iran war, and the reaction that we see certainly suggests that there is a relatively severe reaction by the business community to this war. Of course, the initial phase went extremely well from the standpoint of the United States and Israel, not from the standpoint of Iran. As the war has gone on, the U.S. and Israel have continued to register extremely successful military operations with very few of their own losses. However, it has also become clear that Iran intends to fight back on the ground and has tried to spread the conflict regionally using its missile capabilities—which appear to be more far-reaching than previously thought. We are left with the impression that Iran is prepared to engage in guerrilla warfare, which would be very difficult for conventional military operation to completely stamp out. The U.S. has resisted a call for boots on the ground although Donald Trump appears to be sending some paratroopers into the region. The U.S. has threatened to take control of Iran’s crown jewel of oil operations, Kharg Island. This threat has been made to counter Iran’s efforts to try to close the Strait of Hormuz, probably its only trump card. The U.S. has issued additional threats against Iran if it doesn't reopen the strait and allow oil traffic to pass again.

These conditions are, in many ways, a worst-case scenario for Europe and certainly a worst-case scenario for China and Japan that are so incredibly dependent on oil imports. Europe gets its oil imports substantially from the Middle East, meaning that those imports have to flow through the Strait of Hormuz. And then there's the embargoed Russian oil. There has been Iranian oil that has been on the market, having slipped through embargoes using clandestine tankers. U.S. actions in Venezuela have shut down the Venezuelan shipments that were substantially to China. All of these moves create a great impact, an impasse from oil scarcity, which has led to rising oil prices even though the U.S. has uncorked its strategic petroleum reserve and has promised to make more supplies available from that source. Unlike during 1973-75, the U.S. sits in the catbird seat.

The oil weapon has been broken out, and at the same time, turnabout has become fair play as the U.S. now has the upper hand on oil as Iran crimped the supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Strangely, much of Europe had said it would opt out of the U.S. plan to reopen the strait, but after a short period of time, 22 countries have now signed on to help unplug this strait.

**Beyond oil (...sort of)**
The IFO survey shows expectations have dropped exceedingly hard in response to these events, with the expectation standings by industry ranging from a high of 16.1% in manufacturing to a low of 3.1% in retailing and 5.8% for services in general. The net diffusion readings for March range from a negative reading of -39.3 in retailing to a negative reading of -13.8 in manufacturing.

The current conditions rankings range from a high percentile standing in its 70.6 percentile for construction to a low standing in its 16.9 percentile for services.

And this is a report that has not given survey respondents a lot of time to see and react to events.

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**The future is...unknown-gasp!**
As always (in fact!), no one knows where this goes or how long it is going to take to stabilize oil prices. Iranian leaders are in a very tough position, having run roughshod over their own people. If they lose their grip domestically, the U.S. and Israel will not need boots on the ground to do what Iran’s own people will do if they gain that capability through freedom. The question here is whether there is enough left of the secret police and its vast, nearly 50-year-old organization, to continue to suppress the people. The calculus for Iran fits in the category of a slippery slope—or perhaps what catastrophe theory describes—in which everything will remain under control unless the dam of control breaks, in which case everything will change.

**Precedents? Not really...**  For those looking for historic precedents, let’s remember that in the U.S. oil prices began around $3/barrel in 1973 and rose to about $12/barrel—a rise of some 300%. Today’s ‘painful’ increase from about $80 to over $100 is child’s play by comparison. In the 1970s, effectively it was worse, and oil price increases hit hard. There were homes being built with electric heat where people experienced heating bills larger than their mortgage payments in the U.S. Also, because of the Yom Kippur War and the U.S. siding with Israel, there was an Arab oil embargo in the U.S. and Europe that resulted in fuel rationing. These circumstances spawned the phenomenon known as stagflation. The oil impact was so much worse then, compared to now. I would be quick to say this unfolding episode has little in common with the 1973-75 recession experience with oil and oil prices. The U.S. is especially well-insulated from any potential worsening.

Germany

German IFO Sinks Even as the Current Reading Improves

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Productivity growth in the nonfarm business sector totaled 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, a full percentage point slower than the preliminary estimate. The adjustment reflected a downward revision to output growth (1.5% versus 2.6%) and no change in the preliminary estimate of hours worked, which dipped 0.2%.

The downward revision was disappointing, but the advance of 1.8% remained comfortably within the range of recent observations. In addition, productivity growth shows considerable variation from quarter-to-quarter, and thus heavy weight should not be placed on any single observation. A moving average provides the best perspective on underlying trends, and even a four-quarter average shows considerable volatility; stable patterns start to become visible with eight-quarter averages. The latest read on the long-term average totaled 2.4% in Q4, noticeably better than observations ranging from fractional gains to 2.0% in the decade before the pandemic (note the red line in the chart above).

The latest eight-quarter average lags the solid gains in 2010 (growth of more than 4.0%). However, this performance followed the recession in 2008-09, and productivity typically grows quickly after recessions. (Businesses return to optimal levels of production, and recessions often motivate new production methods and business models that boost efficiency).

The results for unit labor costs were more disappointing than those for productivity, as labor costs were revised 1.6 percentage points higher to 4.4 percent. In addition to the downward revision to productivity growth, the shift in unit labor costs was influenced by an upward revision of 0.6 percentage point to compensation per hour (now showing growth of 6.3%). A moving average also provides the best perspective on unit labor costs, and the latest observation of 2.5% is uncomfortable relative to the Federal Reserve’s inflation target of 2.0%.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

- Productivity growth was a percentage point slower than previously believed, but still respectable.
- A notable upward revision in unit labor cost is more concerning.

Productivity Growth: Downward Revision in Q4

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**A Broad Weakening**
The Standard and Poor’s global PMI data show broad weakness in March compared to February. The early ‘flash’ report provides sector details for seven countries plus the consolidated European Monetary Union reading. For each reporting unit, there are readings for the composite, the manufacturing sector, and services. In March, there was a weakening on a month-to-month basis for every reporter in all sectors except manufacturing. The four manufacturing exceptions were the United States, France, Germany, and the monetary union as a whole. That means India, Australia, Japan, and the United Kingdom recorded weakening in their composite, manufacturing, and services readings in March. Meanwhile, the monetary union, Germany, France, and the U.S. that posted stronger readings in manufacturing were still dominated by weaker readings in services, causing their composites to weaken month-to-month without exception.

**A Sudden Weakening**
These results compare to February when 13 of 24 reporters recorded stronger sector or composite readings month-to-month. In February, the monetary union and Germany reported stronger readings in all three measures—the composite, manufacturing, and services; Japan did the same. January had a much stronger month overall, with increases in most sectors across most reporting units with a few exceptions. France reported weaker services and a weaker composite, the monetary union reported weaker services and a weaker composite, and Germany reported only a weaker services sector. The remaining five reporters recorded stronger readings in all three sectors. The war in Iran has clearly interrupted what had appeared to be a strengthening, though still uneven, economic recovery.

**Sequentially Different Patterns**
Sequential data (3-month, 6-month, and 12-month averages) do not include March since March data are still preliminary. Sequentially, the trends are mixed, with the monetary union and Germany showing weaker conditions over the three months compared to six months, but stronger conditions over six months compared to 12 months for all three sectors The United States also reports weaker conditions over three months compared to six months, and it reports weakening over six months compared to 12 months for services as well. As for manufacturing, although the U.S. services sector is weaker consistently including for 12 months compared to 12 months ago, the United Kingdom and France show strengthening in all three sectors over three months compared to six months and over six months compared to 12 months. Japan shows strengthening on that same basis, except that there's a weakening of services over three months compared to six months. 

There is a mixed picture as far as trend is concerned and some areas have been stronger consistently, and others have progressed faster than others. But March has brought weakness across the board. 

**The Percentile Averages**: The queue standings (or rank standings) show and average percentile standing for the composites (unweighted) at 41.7% over all data since January 2022. Manufacturing currently is relatively strong on this comparison with a 66.9 percentile standing. Services are weak with a 30.4 percentile standing. 

**The Diffusion Average**: Based on data since January 2022, the average composite reading for this set of reporters is 51.9. The manufacturing average is 50.0, and the services average is 52.4. So, all rankings are relative to that set of data. Since 2022, France has had the lowest diffusion reading, with a composite average at 49.2—it has been consistently shrinking. 

**Manufacturing**: Manufacturing has been weakest in German, with an average PMI reading of 46.6. However, France, the United Kingdom, Japan, and the EMU also have average manufacturing sector readings below 50, indicating ongoing manufacturing contraction. 

**Services and Comparisons**: Only France has averaged a service sector contraction since January 2022. Over this period, India has had the strongest diffusion readings across all sectors. The U.S. has logged the second-strongest PMI readings in services, manufacturing, and the composite. 

**The U.S. as a benchmark and sticky conditions**: For the U.S., the average has been 52.2 for the composite, 51.0 for manufacturing, and 52.4 for services. Since these are the second-strongest set of readings, it makes clear that the readings for this period have been quite tepid. Whatever recovery was in progress was probably slow and fairly fragile. Central banks had largely brought inflation down and, in some sense, ‘under control,’ but still, not to target. These sticky realities have been dogging policy-makers. It has been a difficult period. Of course, the Russia-Ukraine war dragged on, Hamas attacked Isreal, Iran’s nuclear facilities were destroyed, the Trump tariffs remained in place, and a second attack on Iran—intended to undermine its surviving nuclear ambitions—was launched with a goal to degrade its huge cache of missiles and drones as well.

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**The Iran Attack and Beyond**
The Iran attack has achieved most of those objectives. However, it has revealed Iran to have much longer range missiles than the West had previously known about—this has helped to change European attitudes toward the attack and war. For ‘once’ it appears American intelligence was right (not so much for the Iraq war). Iran is fighting tenaciously for its leaders who are left to hold onto power. After 47 years as a police state, there is still a lot of oppressive infrastructure in place. The newest wrinkle is the attack is Iran’s threat to shut the strait of Hormuz. That can’t be a surprise, but it is also not an easy thing to deal with. So global energy prices are sharply higher, especially for those that depend on oil to pass through the strait. That reality is still in play, and it is hard to tell when it will change. This uncertainty overhangs the global economy and has brought many countries with various alliances into a sharper focus as to where they stand and what they are willing to do—and for whom.

S&P PMIs Show Weaker March; Iran War Disrupts Recovery Process

Sandy Batten

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Total job openings declined 4.9% m/m (-5.0% y/y) to 6.882 million in February from an upwardly revised 7.240 million in January (previously 6.946 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The job openings rate (the ratio of openings to nonfarm employment plus openings) fell to 4.2% in February from an upwardly revised 4.4% in January (previously 4.2%). In February, the number of unemployed increased while openings declined, meaning that the excess of unemployment over openings rose. The number of unemployed has exceeded the number of openings for seven consecutive months, highlighting the softening of labor market conditions over that period.

Private sector openings fell 3.7% m/m (-307k) in February to 6.181 million in January. Accordingly, the private sector openings rate declined to 4.4% from an upwardly revised 4.6% in January (previously 4.4%). Declines were widespread across major industries, led by 213k decline in leisure and hospitality openings. Manufacturing openings fell 71k, the first decline in three months. Construction openings dropped 28k, their third consecutive monthly decline. Private education and healthcare openings declined 78k, their second decline in the past three months. By contrast, professional and business services openings rose 64k in February, their fifth monthly gain in the past six months. Government openings declined 51k, their first monthly decline in three months, led by a 48k drop in state and local government openings.

Total hiring plunged 9.3% m/m (-498k) to 4.849 million in February, the lowest level since April 2020, from 5.347 million in January (previously 5.294 million). The hiring rate slumped to 3.1%, also the lowest since April 2020, from 3.4% in January. Private sector hiring plummeted 503k to 4.523 million with the private sector hiring rate falling to 3.3% from 3.7%. Declines were widespread across major sectors, led by a 185k drop in hiring in leisure and hospitality, a 154k decline in professional and business services hiring, a 103k drop in private education and healthcare hiring and a 88k decline in construction hiring. By contrast, financial activities hiring rose 40k. Government hiring edged up 5k, accounted completely by an 8k increase in state and local government hiring.

Total separations fell 3.4% m/m (-173k) to 4.971 million in February from 5.144 million in January (previously 5.203 million). The separation rate slipped to 3.1% from 3.2%. The February reading was the lowest separation rate since March 2013. Private separations declined 3.4% m/m (-163k) in February to 4.657 million with the private separation rate falling to 3.4% from 3.6%. Separations varied across major sectors. Separations in professional and business services fell 112k while leisure separations declined 111k. By contrast, separations in trade and transportation rose 66k while private education and healthcare separations increased 15k.

Within private sector separations, quits declined 157k, layoffs rose 62k and other separations fell 67k. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Amid the volatility, quits stabilized somewhat last year after having trended down since early 2022. However, they have fallen markedly for two consecutive months, pointing to some recent further softening in labor market conditions. In contrast, layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Even though layoffs have risen in each of the past two months, they have moved little since last fall. Low levels of quits indicate that there is more difficulty finding a new job, while flattish layoffs indicate that firms are less willing to lay off existing workers, a general theme of the current economic environment.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. 

- Openings fell 4.9% m/m to 6.882 million from an upwardly revised 7.240 million in January.
- Hiring plummeted 9.3% m/m to 4.849 million, the lowest reading since April 2020.
- Separations fell 3.4%% m/m to 4.971 million with a decline in Quits and an increase in Layoffs.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings and Hiring Fell in February

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**INTDAILY** → Selected Major Indicators by Concept → Retail Sales/Consumer Expenditure → **Israel** → Payment Card Transactions

Payment card transaction statistics for Israel were added to **INTDAILY**. Card types within the scope of this table include deferred debit cards, revolving credit cards, direct debit cards, and pre-paid cards. Transaction value and volume series are available for selected products and services. 7-day daily data are sourced from the Bank of Israel and start in January 2018.

Chart: Payment card usage in Israel has experienced robust growth characterized by government-led initiatives to reduce cash transactions, the widespread adoption of contactless POS terminals, the introduction of digital wallets and increasing e-commerce. The flight, tourism and hospitality sector has been one of the drivers, however regional conflicts cause immediate, sharp declines. Since the start of the latest conflict on February 28, transactions in this sector have decreased 42% and are down 37% YoY. Steep declines were also observed during the 12-day war in 2025 and the Hamas attacks in 2023.

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**USTRADE** → Calculated Import Duty by 2 and 4 Digit Harmonized System for Top 50 Trading Partners

Over 14,000 import duty series for the US were added to the **USTRADE** database. Detail includes import duties at the 2- and 4-digit harmonized system level for the US’s top 50 trading partners plus a world aggregate. Monthly data reported in thousands of USD are sourced from the Census Bureau and start in January 2002.

Chart: The US has maintained and expanded tariffs on goods imported from China since 2018, starting under the Trump administration, maintained under Biden, and reaching new peaks in 2025. China faces the highest tariffs (~50%) targeting electronics, machinery, and consumer goods. This has fundamentally reshaped trade patterns, shifting US imports toward other nations. China maintains a high global trade surplus, suggesting that while the US-China trade channel diminished, China pivoted to other markets.

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**GLSECTOR** → Competitiveness Measures → Bellwether Company Statistics → Oracle Corporation

Financial statistics for Oracle Corporation were added to **GLSECTOR**. Detail includes series for revenues, operating expenses, income and capital expenditures. Quarterly data are sourced from Oracle’s public filings and start as early as 1992.

Chart: Oracle achieved revenue of $17.2 bn in Q1 2026, a YoY increase of 22%. Cloud revenue has become its most important driver registering $8.9 bn, a YoY increase of 44%, accounting for more than half of total revenue. We are seeing Oracle’s transformation from a traditional software vendor to an AI computing infrastructure provider. To meet demands, Oracle is building data centers on a massive scale and expects capex to reach $50 billion this FY, funded through bond and equity financing. Investors worry that if AI demand grows less than expected, these data centers may not be able to generate sufficient return on investment.

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Featured Data Additions, March 27, 2026

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U.S. house prices inched up 0.1% m/m in January after rises of 0.3% in December (+0.1% initially) and 0.6% in November (+0.7% previously), according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. January marked the fifth m/m increase in six months and the smallest of four consecutive m/m gains. The HPI reached a record high of 440.99 in January, up 14.6% from its August 2022 low of 384.71. The year-on-year growth rate decelerated to 1.6% in January—the lowest since February 2012 (-0.2%)—from 1.9% in December (+5.2% in January 2025), remaining down from a high of 6.9% in February 2024 and well below a peak of 18.5% in February 2022.

House prices rose m/m in January (vs. December) in six of the nine census divisions. Gains were led by East South Central (+1.7% vs. -0.2%), followed by Mountain (+0.5% vs. +0.7%), New England (+0.5% vs. +0.3%), West North Central (+0.4% vs. +0.3%), Middle Atlantic (+0.3% vs. +0.8%), and Pacific (+0.2% vs. -0.1%). In contrast, house prices fell m/m in three census divisions in January (vs. December): West South Central (-0.7% vs. -0.4%), South Atlantic (-0.4% vs. +0.3%), and East North Central (-0.1% vs. +0.8%).

Year-on-year house prices continued to rise in January across most regions, except West South Central and Pacific. The y/y pace accelerated in January (vs. December) in three of the nine census divisions: East South Central (+3.5% vs. +2.1%), New England (+3.4% vs. +3.2%), and Mountain (+0.1% vs. -0.5%). Meanwhile, house price growth decelerated y/y in January (vs. December) in West North Central (+3.8% vs. +3.9%), Middle Atlantic (+4.3% vs. +4.6%), and East North Central (+4.4% vs. +5.4%). House prices in South Atlantic were unchanged y/y in January. To the downside, West South Central (-0.8% vs. +0.7%) and Pacific (-0.5% vs. -0.4%) posted y/y declines in January.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

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- FHFA HPI +0.1% (+1.6% y/y) in Jan., the smallest of four straight m/m gains.
- House prices up m/m in six of nine census divisions, led by East South Central (+1.7%), but down in West South Central (-0.7%), South Atlantic (-0.4%), and East North Central (-0.1%).
- House prices up y/y in six of nine regions, led by East North Central (+4.4%), but down in West South Central (-0.8%) and Pacific (-0.5%).

U.S. FHFA House Price Growth Continues to Decelerate in January

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- General Business Activity -0.2 in Mar. vs. +0.2 in Feb.; negative for the 12th time in 14 mths.
- Company Outlook (-3.5) and Production (6.8) at three-month lows.
- New Orders Growth (2.2) positive for a second mth.; New Orders (6.1) lowest since Dec.
- Employment (-1.0) negative for the first time in three mths.
- Prices Received up 0.5 pt. to 18.4; Prices Paid up 1.0 pt. to 32.7.
- Future General Business Activity down 2.1 pts. to 10.6, still positive for the 11th straight mth.

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