Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

Michael J. Moran

260211A.jpg

260211B.jpg

Nonfarm payroll employment rose 130,000 in January, notably better than the expected increase of approximately 50,000 and far better than the average monthly gain of 15,000 in 2025. Some observers might not be impressed because the increase was concentrated in the health-care and social-services category (124,000), which is not especially sensitive to the business cycle. In addition, the increase in this category was unusually sharp, suggesting the possibility of random volatility.  The increase was the largest since the summer of 2020, when pandemic-related noise was driving activity.

To be sure, the employment gain outside of health-care and social-services was modest, but the report carried some bright spots nonetheless. The construction sector, which is highly sensitive to business conditions, rose sharply for the second time in the past three months (net gain of 65,000). Similarly, employment in business services, another area sensitive to the business cycle, rose for the third consecutive month, a marked shift from declines in nine of the prior ten months. The manufacturing sector added 5,000 jobs, a moderate change but a welcome break from 13 consecutive declines before January.

Results from the household survey also were favorable, with the unemployment dipping 0.1 percentage point for the second consecutive month. Also, it was a “strong” decline, with the drop reflecting a surge in employment as measured by the household survey (528,000) that exceeded a sharp increase in the size of the labor force (387,000). The broad unemployment rate (the so-calledU-6 measure) showed even sharper improvement (off 0.4 percentage point to 8.0%). Both of the two items added to the headline measure in the broad rate contribute to the decline. The number of individuals working part time for economic reasons fell 8.5% and the number of individuals marginally attached to the labor force fell 4.9%.

An increase of 0.4% in average hourly earnings could be viewed as a bright spot. The monthly change was in the upper end of the range from the past year or two, which left little change in the year-over-year increase (3.7%). The steady advance at a rate in excess of inflation shows that demand for workers has not evaporated.

The length of the average workweek often receives scant attention in reviews of the labor market, but it can be an important variable. Businesses can alter the pace of activity by adjusting hours worked rather than changing payrolls, and thus, shifts in the workweek can signal changes in the tempo of the economy. Fortunately, the workweek has been steady recently, rising 0.1 hour in January and moving to the upper end of the tight range that has been in place for the past year or two.

While we judged the report to be favorable overall, it also contained some soft elements, as several industries posted slow job growth in January: transportation and warehousing (-11,000), information (-12,000), financial activity (-22,000), and the federal government (-34,000).

The annual benchmark adjustment also involved troublesome news. The universe job count taken as of March every year showed that total employment in March 2005 was 862,000 lower than previously believed (not seasonally adjusted). That revision left average monthly job growth from April 2004 to March 2005 (the period between the two benchmark months) at 76,000, down substantially from the average of 147,000 in the monthly reports (seasonally adjusted). Results from April to December 2025 also were nudged lower (monthly job growth of 13,000 rather than 28,000). The adjustments after the latest benchmark date reflected a recalibration of models used in the estimation process and the normal monthly adjustments in the prior two months of the latest survey. Revisions to seasonal factors back to 2021 also influenced all results. 

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260211C.jpg

260211D.jpg

•	The increase in employment in January was firm, although narrowly based.
•	The unemployment rate dipped for the second consecutive month, led by strong employment as measured by the household survey.
•	The benchmark revision included with this report showed that job growth in much of 2024 and early 2025 was softer than previously believed.

January Employment Report: The Labor Market Has a Pulse

Robert Brusca

260211E.jpg

Italian industrial production fell nearly across the board. In December, headline production fell by 0.2%; consumer goods output fell by 0.9% and intermediate goods output fell by 0.4%, while capital goods output was the exception, rising by 0.5%. Output had risen in all sectors in November; it had fallen across all sectors in October. As a result, the recent data are quite choppy and it's hard to make sense of what the underlying trend is or what might be developing.

Sequential data offer some opinions on this idea of where the trend is going. The headline output shows a 3.6% gain over 12 months, advances at a 1.1% annual rate over six months, and then declines at a 1.3% annualized rate over three months. The headline rate is clearly in a persistently declining phase. That phase is supported by intermediate goods where output is up 3.4% over 12 months, rises at a 0.7% annual rate over six months, and then falls at a 2.2% annualized pace over three months. Consumer goods and capital goods do not offer much clarity, swinging sequentially and failing to provide steppingstones to a new trend. Consumer goods output shows a 12-month gain of 0.3%, but that is substantially undermined by a 6.1% annualized decline over three months. However, for capital goods, a 7.2% growth rate over 12 months is quite similar to a 7% annualized gain over three months, showing that capital goods output has hardly lost a step despite a stumble over six months.

Output in the transportation sector in Italy is contrarily showing a tendency to acceleration in monthly data from October to November to December. Sequentially, this series is giving us no clear signals.

**Other trends**
In the quarter to date, Italian output is falling by a 0.8% annual rate, led by a 4.3% annual rate decline in consumer goods. However, capital goods output is increasing at a 3.4% annual rate, and intermediate goods output is up at a tepid 1.6% annualized pace. Since January 2021, the cumulative change in output is lower for manufacturing overall, for consumer goods output, and for intermediate goods, while capital goods output is up by 1.6% over that span. The ranking of year-over-year growth rates on data back to 2004 shows all the sectors with growth rates above the 50% mark, indicating that year-over-year growth across the Italian sectors is greater than their median over this broad period. Headline growth is exceptionally solid, with the ranking in its 81st percentile. The transportation sector, however, has a growth rate that ranks only at its 24th percentile.

**Indicators and surveys**
The bottom panel of the table presents performance by surveys; these tend to be more up-to-date, and they've come to be relied upon. Here we feature indicators from the EU industrial survey and from Istat on current orders and on the outlook for current production. In December, all three of these metrics showed declines; in November they all showed increases, and they showed increases in October similar to the increases logged in November. The changes in the levels of the variables over different horizons show a mild tendency toward weakening, but nothing that is clear or dramatic, looking at changes from 3-months. to 6-months, to 12-months. In the just-completed quarter (QTD), the change in the indicators is either flat or lower. All of them track below their historic median levels (rankings <50). The indicators clearly are showing weaker conditions than actual production data. These sorts of rifts are common between accounting data and survey-style diffusion data. They also generate controversy about which is right. I favor the accounting data.

260211.jpg

Italy

Italian IP Shows Gains in Progress

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

260211A5.jpg

260211B5.jpg

Mortgage applications edged down 0.3% w/w (+43.4% y/y) in the week ending February 6, following a drop of 8.9% w/w (+47.2% y/y) in the week ending January 30, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 2.4% w/w (+5.5% y/y) in the latest week, after contracting 14.4% w/w (+5.6% y/y) in the week ending January 30.  Applications for loan refinancing rose 1.2% w/w (100.5% y/y) in the February 6 week, after declining 4.7% w/w (+117.3% y/y) in the January 30 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged up 1bp to 6.38% in the week ending February 6 from 6.37% in the week ending January 30. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 6bps to 5.82% in the latest week from 5.76% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate fell 2bps to 6.40% in the February week from 6.42% in the January 30 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM edged down 1bp to 5.58% in the latest week from 5.59% in the week ending January 30.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan declined to 56.4% of total applications in the February 6 week from 57.1% in the January 30 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.0% in the week ending February 6 from 7.5% in the week ending January 30.

The average size of a mortgage loan declined 1.2% w/w (+3.1% y/y) to $405,700 in the week ending February 6, after rising 1.9% w/w (6.6% y/y) to $410,800 in the week ending January 30. The average size of a purchase loan declined 1.6% w/w (-2.4% y/y) to $445,000 in the latest week, following a 2.6% w/w to $452,100 in the week ending January 30. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 1.2% w/w (+24.9% y/y) to $375,200 in the week ending February 6, following a rise of 1.5% w/w to $379,700 in the week ending January 30.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase declined in the latest week while refinancing loan applications rose.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans rose 1bp to 6.38%.
- Average loan size declined.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Edged Down in the February 6 Week

Winnie Tapasanun

260210N39.jpg

260210O39.jpg

Total retail sales were essentially flat m/m in December, falling short of expectations, following a 0.6% increase in November (unrevised) and a 0.2% decline in October (-0.1% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 0.5% m/m December increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate decelerated to 2.4% in December, the lowest since September 2024, from 3.3% in November; this compared with 4.6% in December 2024 and remained far below a high of 17.1% in February 2022 and a record-high 51.8% in April 2021. For all of 2025, retail sales increased 4.0% after gains of 2.6% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2023.

Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales were virtually unchanged (3.3% y/y) in December after a 0.4% rise in November (+0.5% initially), which marked the sixth consecutive m/m gain. A 0.4% m/m December increase had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts fell 0.2% (-1.1% y/y) following a 1.2% November rebound; this compared to a 2.8% rise (-4.2% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales after a 2.7% November increase.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, eased 0.1% (+3.4% y/y) in December, the first m/m decline since September, after a 0.2% increase in November. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials dipped 0.1% (+3.6% y/y), also down for the first time since September, following a 0.3% November rise.

Sales by category showed mixed performance in December. To the downside, furniture & home furnishing store sales slid 0.9% (-5.6% y/y) in December, the fourth m/m slide in five months, after a 0.1% easing in November. Miscellaneous store sales fell 0.9% (+9.4% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after a 1.3% November rise. Clothing & accessory store sales declined 0.7% (+5.1% y/y), the first m/m decrease in three months, reversing a 0.5% November increase. Electronics & appliance store sales fell 0.4% (+2.1% y/y) after rising 0.2% in November and October. General merchandise store sales slipped 0.1% (+1.2% y/y) for the second consecutive month in December; within this grouping, department store sales fell 0.7% (-0.3% y/y), the third m/m fall in four months, following a 3.1% November drop.

To the upside, building materials & garden equipment store sales climbed 1.2% (0.5% y/y) for the second successive month in December. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales rose 0.4% (6.0% y/y), the fifth m/m rise in six months, after a 0.9% November increase. Gasoline station sales grew 0.3% (1.6% y/y), the sixth m/m gain in seven months, on top of a 1.7% November rebound. Nonstore retail sales were up 0.1% (5.3% y/y) in December after virtually unchanged in November.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales fell 0.2% (+6.4% y/y) in December, down for the second time in three months, following a 0.3% increase in November. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y) after a 0.1% November dip.

Consumers appeared to dine out less frequently in December amid still-high inflation (December CPI +0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/y; core CPI +0.2% m/m, +2.6% y/y). Restaurant & drinking place sales eased 0.1% (+4.7% y/y) in December, the second m/m decline in three months, following an upwardly revised 0.7% rise in November (+0.6% initially).

Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

260210P39.jpg

260210Q39.jpg

- December total retail sales -0.02%, below expectations; +2.4% y/y, lowest since Sept. ’24.
- Ex-auto sales +0.02% (+3.3% y/y) after six straight m/m rises; auto sales -0.2% (-1.1% y/y).
- Declines m/m: furniture stores (-0.9%), misc. stores (-0.9%), clothing stores (-0.7%).
- Gains m/m: bldg. materials (+1.2%), sporting goods (+0.4%), gasoline stations (+0.3%).

U.S. Retail Sales Hold Steady in December Following November’s Rebound

Sandy Batten

260210J2.jpg

260210K2.jpg

The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish a report on export and import prices for October because of the government shutdown, and BLS was unable to construct statistics for October. Therefore, the charts here have a gap for October between the September and the November and December values.

Import prices rose 0.1% m/m (unchanged y/y) in December from November, in line with the expectations of the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Since there was no value for October value, a monthly change for November could not be calculated. Import prices fell 0.1% y/y in November. Export prices rose 0.3% m/m in December. Again, a monthly change for November could not be calculated. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% monthly increase in December. The y/y reading fell to 3.1% in December from 3.2% in November.

Note that these indexes are not directly affected by tariffs because they measure the price of goods before taxes. Tariffs are considered taxes and thus are excluded from these calculations.

For imports, a 3.3% monthly decline in prices of imported petroleum and petroleum products restrained the rise in overall prices. Prices of nonpetroleum imports rose 0.4% m/m (1.0% y/y). Prices of imported food increased 0.5% m/m while prices of imported industrial supplies rose 0.4% m/m even with a 0.8% monthly decline in prices of fuels and lubricants. Prices of the remaining end-use categories were little changed in December. Given the recent weakness of the foreign exchange value of the dollar, there could be further upward pressure on nonpetroleum import prices in coming months.

For exports, prices of agricultural products 0.2% m/m (2.1% y/y) in December following a 0.9% m/m jump in November. Prices of nonagricultural exports increased 0.3% m/m in December. A monthly change could not be calculated for November. The y/y rate slowed to 3.1% in December from 3.3%. Exported food prices rose 0.4% m/m, down from a 1.1% monthly jump in November. Prices of exported industrial supplies also increased 0.4% m/m in December. Prices of exported consumer goods excluding autos jumped 0.8% m/m in December, their largest monthly increase since January 2023.

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260210L2.jpg

260210M2.jpg

- Import prices rose 0.1% m/m in December, in line with expectations.
- The December increase reflected a 0.2% monthly gain in non-fuel import prices and a 0.8% m/m decline in fuel prices.
- Export prices rose 0.3% m/m against expectations of a 0.1% m/m increase. Both agricultural and nonagricultural prices rose in December.


U.S. Import and Export Prices Rise in December

260210F.jpg

260210G.jpg

The Employment Cost Index rose at an annual rate of 3.0% in the final three months of 2025 (0.7% not annualized). The latest observation reinforced the deceleration that began in the latter part of 2022 and returned the change to the range in place before the pandemic - albeit the upper portion of that range.

Most of the deceleration occurred in the goods-producing sector, where the latest increase of 2.5% (annual rate) trailed the average of 3.9% in the prior three quarters. The service sector saw compensation growth of 3.1%, down from an average of 3.5% in the prior three quarters. The difference between the performances of goods and service is not surprising, as compensation growth in the goods-producing sector tends to be more volatile, and it has typically been softer in the past few years.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has argued recently that labor costs are not a driving force behind above-target inflation, and recent results on the employment cost index support this view. While the increase in compensation of 3.0% in Q4 is a percentage point above the Fed’s target, businesses can maintain profits without passing along the full extent of the increase. Productivity growth, which has been strong recently (average growth of 2.3% in the past eight quarters), can effectively offset compensation growth and dampen the inflation impulse.

The chart on the upper right shows quarterly growth in total compensation less the 8-quarter increase in productivity (the 8-quarter average smooths the high degree of volatility in productivity growth). This metric, which gives insight into the likely path of inflation, has been below 2.0% for the past 6 quarters, with the latest increase totaling less than 1.0%. (the chart ends in 2025-Q3 because productivity statistics for Q4 are not available).

260210H.jpg

Total compensation in the ECI includes both wages and benefits. In the third quarter, both components rose by the same amount (0.7% quarter-to-quarter, or 3.0% at an annual rate). This balance is a shift from the pattern of recent years, when wages typically posted firmer growth. The advantage to wages in the past few years, in turn, represents a break from the more common tendency for benefits to grow at a faster pace.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

- Vigorous growth during the pandemic-related recovery gives way to moderate advances recently.
- Labor costs seem in line with the Fed’s inflation target.

Employment Cost Index: Continued Deceleration

260210E.jpg

In December, among ten reporting monetary union members, output increased for six of them and declined in four of them. In addition, two reporting European economies, Sweden and Norway, each showed increases in output in December. In November, five monetary union members showed decreases, while only two showed declines in October. The recent trends and data on industrial production are not exactly friendly, but neither are they scathing results. In December, the median change in the monetary union was a 0.1% increase in manufacturing output following a 0.9% median drop in November and a 0.3% median increase in October.

For the full set of reporting countries, 60% showed acceleration in December, about the same as in October. However, in November only 23% showed output accelerating on a month-to-month basis. Coupled with weak median results, the recent reports on industrial production are not particularly impressive.

Sequential results, looking at 12-month, to 6-month to 3-month growth rates, are disappointing as well. The 12-month growth rate puts the annualized median rise of manufacturing output at 2.2%, the 6-month annualized growth rate at -2%, and the 3-month growth rate at -2% for EMU member countries. For the full sample of countries, there is acceleration in 50% over 12 months, 61.5% of them over six months, and that drops down to 38.5% over three months.

In addition, these sequential data show that five reporting countries have persistent decelerations in output growth rates from 12-months to 6-months to 4-months. Those countries include France, the Netherlands, Spain, Greece, and Portugal. However, there are contrary accelerating trends in three reporting countries Malta, Sweden, and Norway; the latter two, of course, are not monetary union members but have various affiliations with the European trading bloc.

Quarter-to-date data (covering the completed fourth quarter) for the full sample show that five countries have output declining on balance in Q4. However, among monetary union members, the median change in the quarter is an annual rate of 1.1% increase in manufacturing industrial production.

Assessing the growth rates based on year-over-year growth in industrial output, only four countries in the sample have output growth rates below their historic medians on data back to 2006. Those are Austria, Germany, Luxembourg, and Malta. Other reporters have growth rates that rank above the 50% mark which puts them above their historic median. Sweden has a year-over-year growth rate in its 93.7 percentile; Norway has a growth rate in its 85.3 percentile; Greece, Portugal, and France have growth rates in their 70th percentiles, respectively.

The December news is not upbeat, but it is not dismal either. It suggests the same old industrial slog is still underway in Europe.

260210.jpg

Europe

IP in Europe Shows Lethargy

Tian Yong Woon

In our Letter this week, we explore Asia in two parts. The first reviews key developments from the past week, focusing on snap election outcomes in Japan (chart 1) and Thailand (chart 2), both of which delivered victories for incumbent parties and helped reduce near-term political uncertainty.

The second, and larger, section builds on last week’s discussion of Asia and AI, shifting the focus to AI’s potential impact on the region from an end-user perspective. On the upside, Asia stands to benefit meaningfully from the eventual large-scale adoption of AI-powered robotics, reflecting the region’s relatively high share of manufacturing value added (chart 3). That said, important considerations remain, including the cost viability of transitioning towards humanoid robotics given the sizeable upfront capital expenditure involved. Beyond manufacturing, AI adoption could also deliver gains in healthcare, particularly as many Asian economies grapple with ageing populations—implying a growing care burden alongside a shrinking domestic caregiver base (chart 4). However, regulatory, ethical, and implementation challenges persist. 

At the same time, the AI transition will likely displace certain jobs, making this a race not only of adoption but of adaptability, where education—while an imperfect proxy—offers some insight into which economies may be better positioned to adjust (chart 5). Finally, bureaucratic frictions also matter (chart 6), although even traditionally more bureaucratic economies have begun introducing fast-track frameworks to avoid falling behind in what could prove to be a pivotal transition reshaping the regional, and potentially global, economic landscape.

**Japan’s snap election**
Following a snap election held on Sunday, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a historic landslide victory, winning a more than two-thirds majority in Japan’s 456-seat Lower House. The LDP’s coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, also expanded its presence to 36 seats. The outcome suggests that Takaichi’s political gamble to capitalise on strong opinion polling has paid off. While the election result has removed a key source of near-term political uncertainty for Japan, attention now turns to the policy agenda enabled by the government’s newly strengthened mandate. Among the first expected moves, Takaichi appears set to proceed with a temporary food tax pause, reducing the 8% consumption tax on food to 0% for two years. This proposal reinforces the perception that her policy stance is fiscally accommodative, even as critics raise concerns around fiscal discipline and long-term sustainability. As for the market reaction, Japanese equities rallied on stimulus expectations, bond yields rose on prospects of increased issuance to fund higher spending, while the yen recorded only muted net moves (chart 1)—prompting some speculation that some intervention may have taken place.

260210T1.jpg

**Thailand’s snap election**
Thailand also held snap elections last Sunday, which saw the incumbent deliver a strong showing at the polls. Unlike Japan’s election outcome, however, the scale of the increase in the incumbent Bhumjaithai (BJT) Party’s parliamentary footprint came as a surprise to many observers. That said, despite these sizable gains, the BJT Party fell short of an outright majority, securing 193 of the 500 seats in parliament, implying that a coalition government will likely still be required to pass legislation smoothly. Thai equities and the baht nevertheless rallied on the election results (chart 2). Attention now turns to whether—and how—Prime Minister Anutin will follow through on key campaign promises, including the revival of a popular shopping subsidy programme. While such measures would provide a near-term boost to consumption, they would also raise concerns around fiscal sustainability. Beyond the parliamentary vote, Thai voters also approved a proposal to replace the constitution. If pursued, this could pave the way for deeper structural reforms to Thailand’s economy.

260210T2.jpg

**AI’s (potential) impact on Asia**
We now turn to the longer, second part of this week’s letter, where we examine AI’s potential impact on Asia. In contrast to last week’s discussion, the focus here is on Asia’s role as an end-user of AI, rather than its position within the global AI supply chain. While AI broadly promises substantial productivity gains if deeply embedded across economies, one sector where Asia may benefit disproportionately is manufacturing. This reflects the relatively high share of manufacturing value added in GDP across many Asian economies compared with the global average (chart 3). In particular, Asia stands to reap significant productivity gains through the widespread adoption of AI-powered robotics. Cost, however, remains a key consideration: relative to the overall cost of human labour, AI-enabled robots have yet to become unequivocally competitive once high upfront capital outlays are taken into account. That said, recent advances in humanoid, AI-enabled robots have demonstrated increasingly broad and sophisticated capabilities in replicating human tasks, including delicate and precision operations. Over time, this could meaningfully alleviate a persistent structural challenge facing many advanced Asian economies—ageing populations and the associated labour constraints.

260210T3.jpg

Digging deeper into the ageing population challenge faced by many Asian economies, another area where AI and robotics could play a meaningful role is healthcare. Ageing societies face a twin burden: a rising number of elderly individuals requiring care alongside a shrinking pool of working-age caregivers, absent offsetting labour inflows. One proxy for this imbalance is the old-age dependency, which, as shown in chart 4, is already relatively high in several Asian economies, including China, Japan, and South Korea. That said, adoption remains at a very early stage. Significant barriers to widespread deployment persist, including regulatory and ethical considerations, high implementation costs, and questions around the consistency, reliability, and safety of AI-enabled systems in delivering healthcare-related tasks.

260210T4.jpg

**Asia’s challenges in AI adoption**
That said, the outlook is not entirely positive for Asia in the context of widespread AI adoption. As with previous waves of transformative technology, AI will inevitably render some jobs—at least in their current form—obsolete, even as it creates new roles and reshapes others. This implies that many Asian economies will need to navigate a significant structural adjustment in their labour markets, as certain types of work are displaced while demand for new skill sets emerges. How effectively Asia manages this transition will be critical in determining whether its economies move ahead of—or fall behind—the global shift towards AI. At present, and using education quality as a rough proxy, some Asian economies appear better positioned to manage this adjustment than others. As illustrated in chart 5, economies such as China, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea seem relatively well placed to absorb and adapt to the coming changes. That said, education quality is only an imperfect indicator. Other factors will also matter, including the capacity to rapidly retool and reskill the workforce, as well as the inclusiveness of the transition. Ensuring that lower-skilled and more vulnerable segments of society are not left behind will be an important determinant of the long-term economic and social outcomes of AI adoption across the region.

260210T5.jpg

Another potential hurdle relates to bureaucratic costs, which—when elevated—can act as a meaningful source of friction in the adoption of new AI-driven technologies. On this front, some Asian economies stand out for having comparatively low bureaucratic burdens, notably Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea, while others, such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and China, tend to lag (chart 6). That said, as with many broad-based indicators, this picture masks important nuances. Several of these economies have introduced industry-specific—particularly AI-focused—fast-tracking initiatives aimed at accelerating development within targeted domestic sectors. Even so, in an increasingly competitive and intensifying global race to adopt AI and capture its economic upside, we may see a growing tendency toward an “adopt first, regulate later” approach in the years ahead. This is likely to persist unless and until major incidents or heightened concerns emerge that materially slow the pace of AI adoption.

260210T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Of Ballots and Bots

large_260217N3.jpg

medium_260217N3.jpg

small_260217N3.jpg

thumbnail_260217N3.jpg

260217N3.jpg

large_260217O3.jpg

medium_260217O3.jpg

small_260217O3.jpg

thumbnail_260217O3.jpg

260217O3.jpg

The Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo fell 2.7% m/m (-14.3% y/y) to a lower-than-expected 36 in February following a 5.1% decline to 37 in January (unrevised) and a 2.6% rise to 39 in December (unrevised). February marked the second successive m/m decline after three straight m/m increases. A reading of 38 had been expected in the INFORMA Global Markets survey. The HMI had been below the breakeven 50 level since May 2024. The February index, lower than 42 in February 2025, was 35.7% below a high of 56 in July 2023 and 60.0% below a record-high 90 in November 2020.

Notably, the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to 6.09% in the February 12 week, the lowest in three weeks, from 6.11% in the February 5 week, according to Freddie Mac. The rate was below a high of 7.22% in the week of May 2, 2024 and a peak of 7.79% in the week of October 26, 2023.

Two of the three HMI components decreased this month. The index of present single-family sales conditions was unchanged m/m at 41 (-10.9% y/y) in February after a 2.4% decline in January. The index was 33.9% below a high of 62 in July 2023 and 57.3% below a record-high 96 in November 2020. The index of expected single-family sales for the next six months fell 6.1% (-2.1% y/y) to 46 in February after a 5.8% decrease to 49 in January, marking the third m/m fall in four months and the lowest level since September 2025. The index was 30.3% below a high of 66 in December 2024 and 48.3% below a peak of 89 in November 2020. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers slid 8.3% (-24.1% y/y) to a five-month-low 22 in February on top of a 7.7% drop to 24 in January. The index was 45.0% below a high of 40 in July 2023 and 71.4% below a record-high 77 in November 2020.

By region, the HMIs mostly fell m/m this month. The index for the West dropped 11.8% (-14.3% y/y) to 30 in February, the lowest level since September 2025, after a 5.6% decline to 34 in January. The index for the Northeast decreased 10.6% (-16.0% y/y) to 42, down for the third time in four months, following a 14.6% January rebound to 47. The index for the Midwest fell 2.4% (-4.7% y/y) to 41 after a 10.6% January fall to 42, registering the third m/m decline in four months and the lowest reading since November. Meanwhile, the index for the South held steady at 35 for three consecutive months (-14.6% y/y).

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low". The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The regional indexes run back to December 2004.

These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The Informa Global Markets survey is in Haver's **MMSAMER** database.

large_260217P3.jpg

medium_260217P3.jpg

small_260217P3.jpg

thumbnail_260217P3.jpg

260217P3.jpg

large_260217Q3.jpg

medium_260217Q3.jpg

small_260217Q3.jpg

thumbnail_260217Q3.jpg

260217Q3.jpg

- HMI continues to weaken in Feb., indicating most builders remain pessimistic about the current and near-term housing outlook.
- Two of three HMI components fall, w/ the steepest m/m decline in potential buyers' traffic (-8.3%).
- Regional weakness continues, w/ the sharpest m/m drop in the West (-11.8%).

U.S. Housing Market Index Falls for Second Consecutive Month in February

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

#### Academic Data Scope
National Account (GDP), Production, Labour Market, Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Policy & International Trade. High-frequency data covering financial variables and drivers of the real economy, and key ESG environmental indicators. Plus, time series from the IMF on 190+ countries to aid cross comparison.

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

U.S. Housing Market Index Falls for Second Consecutive Month in February

Recent Commentaries

FRBNY Empire State Manufacturing Index Slipped Slightly in February

Consumer Price Index: Slow, but Steady, Deceleration

Charts of the Week: AI-Led Growth Meets Monetary Divergence

U.S. Existing Home Sales Drop in January; Lowest Level Since Sept. ’24

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Declined in Latest Week

U.K. Second Half GDP Slows to a Crawl

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints