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Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we take stock of the latest economic data from China, assessing what it tells us about the outlook for growth and policy. We also continue our coverage of the Middle East conflict, focusing on its broader implications for Asia through energy markets, trade routes, and regional risk sentiment.On China, while Q1 GDP data exceeded expectations, putting the economy on a firm footing to meet its annual growth target (chart 1), a closer look at the underlying monthly indicators suggests the headline resilience may be masking a more uneven underlying picture (chart 2). 

As for the Middle East, the latest round of regional March CPI prints largely confirms the initial pass-through from higher oil prices to consumer inflation. If energy prices remain elevated, second-round effects will likely become more evident in the coming months (chart 3). Turning to the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data point to a gradual recovery in flows. However, conflicting signals on the strait’s status—alongside renewed US–Iran tensions—continue to cloud the outlook for a sustained normalization in global oil supply (chart 4). In response, global players have begun to adapt, including rerouting shipments via the longer but safer Cape of Good Hope route, and exploring alternative export channels through Red Sea ports, even though these remain exposed to regional risks (chart 5). Finally, the conflict has prompted a reassessment of the global outlook. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF delivered broad-based growth downgrades across economies, with only a handful of exceptions (chart 6).

**China**
China released a raft of data late last week, with March figures particularly pertinent as they capture the initial effects of the Middle East conflict that erupted in late February. Notably, Q1 GDP exceeded expectations, with the economy expanding 5% y/y despite incorporating March data (chart 1). This suggests China has secured a firm early footing toward its 4.5%–5% growth target for the year—a slight step down from last year’s “about 5%” goal. But a closer look at the March data reveals several nuances. On the external front, export growth slowed sharply year-to-date, falling behind import growth, thereby dragging on trade balance growth. 

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On a more downbeat note, growth in retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment all moderated in March (chart 2). While this may partly reflect spillovers from the Middle East conflict, it likely also points to underlying domestic factors, including the fading impact of earlier, possibly one-off, policy support measures. That said, not all signals point to deterioration. Industrial profits have shown signs of improvement, likely supported in part by authorities’ efforts to curb intense price competition, also termed as “involution”, amid excess supply. This has contributed to a gradual easing in producer price deflation, which is beginning to feed through to a modest improvement in consumer inflation.

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**The Middle East conflict – Impacts**
Among economies that have reported March CPI so far, chart 3 shows that Asian inflation prints have more often than not come in higher y/y than in February. While specific domestic factors are also at play, the uptick has largely coincided with a rebound in energy-related inflation, in line with the global price surge following the Middle East supply shock. Given the pervasive role of energy as a key input across economic activity—from manufacturing to trade—what we are observing thus far likely reflects primarily first-round effects. Should energy prices remain elevated, second-round effects are likely to emerge in subsequent inflation prints.

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Whether energy prices remain elevated in the near term ultimately hinges on the same factor that drove the initial surge: oil flows through the critical Strait of Hormuz. On that front, IMF data suggest shipping volumes have continued to edge higher, though recent headlines have kept crude prices volatile. For instance, earlier assurances by Iranian authorities that the strait was “fully open” triggered a sharp decline in crude oil prices. However, weekend reports of a renewed closure—alongside news that the US had seized an Iranian-flagged vessel—serve as a stark reminder that tensions remain elevated and that disruptions to oil flows may well be set to persist. 

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**The Middle East conflict – Considerations**
That said, the global response has not been passive. Economies have increasingly sought alternative energy sources and rerouted oil shipments via other channels. Over a longer horizon, both producers constrained by exports through the Strait of Hormuz and importers heavily reliant on the route are likely developing contingency plans to hedge against the risk of a prolonged disruption at this critical chokepoint. For instance, amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, more shipments are being diverted along the longer—but relatively safer—route via the Cape of Good Hope, bypassing the region. At the same time, there has been growing consideration of redirecting exports through Red Sea ports by shifting flows away from Hormuz-linked terminals. However, these alternatives are not without limitations. They remain exposed to regional risks, while capacity constraints—particularly in existing pipeline infrastructure—mean they could not fully offset a disruption to flows through the strait.

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Lastly, we turn to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, released last week. Reflecting the growth-dampening effects of the Middle East crisis, the IMF downgraded its real GDP forecasts for most economies, resulting in a modest downward revision to global growth overall. Across Asian and major non-Asian economies (chart 6), only India and Japan saw upgrades, likely supported by offsetting domestic or structural drivers. European economies registered the steepest downgrades, while China and the US, though also revised lower, appear relatively more insulated. Importantly, these projections assume the conflict remains contained in duration, intensity, and scope, and begins to fade by mid-year. Should it persist or escalate beyond that, further downside risks to growth are likely to materialize.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Barrel of Doubt

Michael J. Moran

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The industrial production index fell 0.5% in March, noticeably weaker than the expected increase of 0.1%. In addition, the March results were joined by slight net downward revisions in prior months (sharp upward revision in February offset by a larger downward adjustment in January and tweaks in earlier months). A good portion of the March softness was the result of a drop of 2.3% in utility output, which is not deeply concerning because changes in this sector typically are driven by weather conditions. However, mining activity also was soft (-1.2%), and manufacturing production dipped 0.1%.

Within manufacturing, auto production played a large role in the dip, registering a decline of 3.7%. However, the auto sector had plenty of company on the soft side, as furniture, textiles, apparel, and printing all posted declines of more than 1.0%. Given these drags, manufacturing output excluding autos rose only 0.1%. There was a nearly even split between expanding and contracting industries within manufacturing: 11 boosting production and 9 reducing activity.

The dip in manufacturing activity in March might seem inconsequential in light of solid advances in January and February (up 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively). However, the gains early in the year followed a weak fourth quarter, leaving an unimpressive trend.

Trends in industrial activity are often more apparent by focusing on the level of production indexes rather than month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes. As shown the chart below, the level of the manufacturing index stirred for a time in 2025, but it lost momentum in the closing months of the year. Changes so far in 2026 have not pushed the index above the September 2025 peak. The 6-month moving average of the manufacturing index is now running sideways.

The capacity utilization rate in manufacturing has naturally reflected movement in production. Utilization rose in 2025 as production strengthened, but it retraced most of the upward movement once momentum in production faded. The utilization rate in manufacturing stood at 75.2% in March, down slightly from the average of 75.4% in 2025.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Downward noise in utility output; slow activity in manufacturing and mining.
- Flat underlying trend in recent months.

Industrial Production: Soft in March

Winnie Tapasanun

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The current general activity diffusion index unexpectedly jumped to 26.7 in April from 18.1 in March and 16.3 in February, the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activity in the Third Federal Reserve District this month and at the highest level since January 2025. April was the fourth successive m/m increase and the fifth in six months, showing a sharp improvement from -12.9 in April 2025. A reading of 15.0 for April had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. In April, 32.6% of firms reported increases in current general activity (down from 39.2% in March), while 5.9% reported decreases (down from 21.1%); 61.5% reported no change (up from 34.6%). Survey responses were collected from April 6 to April 13.

Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from five key components using the methodology along the lines of the national ISM index. The index eased to 54.5 in April after a 6.2-point rebound to 54.8 in March, indicating manufacturing activity expanded for the fourth time in five months; it was above a contraction-level 44.8 in April 2025.

In the latest survey, the new orders index surged to 33.0 in April from 8.6 in March, signaling new orders expanded for the fifth straight month and at the highest level since November 2021. The shipments index advanced to 34.0 this month from 22.2 in March, marking the fifth consecutive expansion and the highest level since May 2022. In contrast, the unfilled orders index dropped to -10.2 in April from -4.7 in March, extending its ninth straight contraction. The inventories index decreased to -1.9 this month from 1.4 in March, showing the third contraction in four months. Meanwhile, the delivery times index fell to a near‑neutral 1.7 in April from 18.9 in March (the highest reading since April 2022), suggesting a rapid easing of supply‑chain pressures rather than a demand‑driven slowdown.

On the labor front, the number of employees index slid to -5.1 in April from 0.8 in March, indicating employment contracted for the second time in three months and hit its lowest level since June 2025. In April, 10.1% of respondents reported increases in employment, while a higher 15.2% reported declines; 70.4% reported no change in employment levels. The average employee workweek index rose to 7.7 this month, the highest reading since January, from 2.8 in March.

Inflation indicators remained elevated in April. The prices paid index jumped to 59.3 this month, the highest level since August, after a 5.8-point rise to 44.7 in March. A higher 61.4% of respondents reported increases in input prices in April, while only 2.1% reported decreases. The prices received index rose to 33.5, an eight-month high, after a 4.5-point March increase to 21.2. In April, 33.5% of respondents reported increases in prices received, while 0.0% reported decreases.

The future indexes generally remained in positive territory, signaling continued overall growth over the next six months, although most future indicators declined. The future general activity diffusion index rebounded to 40.8 in April from 40.0 in March, staying positive since February 2024. The following future indexes fell in April (vs. March) but remained in positive territory: new orders (45.7 vs. 49.6), shipments (40.8 vs. 53.6), and employment (35.9 vs. 40.4). Future indexes for unfilled orders (-4.1 vs. 15.3) and inventories (-0.7 vs. 16.8) moved into contraction in April after expanding in March. Notably, the future capital expenditures index rose to 35.2 this month, the highest level since August, from 25.8 in March. Prices continued to increase, with the future prices paid index easing to a still‑high 50.2 in April from 53.7 in March and the future prices received index rising to a three-month-high 50.2 from 38.4.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The indexes range from -100 to +100 with positive values indicating an increase in activity. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Current General Activity Index up 8.6 pts. to 26.7 in Apr.; fourth consecutive m/m rise.
- Positive: Shipments (34.0), highest since May ’22; New Orders (33.0), highest since Nov. ’21.
- Negative: Employment (-5.1), lowest since June ’25; Unfilled Orders (-10.2), ninth straight contraction.
- Inflation indicators at eight-month highs and well above long-run nonrecession avgs.
- Future General Activity Index up to 40.8; most subindexes down but still positive; future price indexes still above long-run avgs.

U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Climbs in April to Highest Level Since Jan. ’25

Sandy Batten

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 11,000 to 207,000 in the week ending April 11, from 218,000 in the week ending April 4, revised down slightly from 219,000. The four-week average edged up to 209,750 from 209,250. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for 215,000 new claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 31,000 to 1.818 million in the week ending April 4, from 1.787 million in the week ending March 28 (revised down from 1.794 million). The four-week moving average declined to 1.813 million in the latest week from 1.821 million in the March 28 week. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of April 4. It has remained at that level since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending March 28, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (2.50%), Massachusetts (2.50%), New Jersey (2.49%), Washington (2.28%), and Minnesota (2.16%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.31%), Louisiana (0.31%), Alabama (0.36%), North Carolina (0.39%), and Virgin Islands (0.39%). Rates in other notable states include California (2.06%), New York (1.91%), Illinois (1.88%), Michigan (1.75%), Pennsylvania (1.56%), and Texas (1.05%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.


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- New claims fell by 11,000 to 207,000.
- Continuing claims jumped 31,000 to 1.818 million.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2%.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Fell in Most Recent Week

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Import prices rose a less-than-expected 0.8% m/m (2.1% y/y) in March notwithstanding a 9.4% monthly jump in imported petroleum and petroleum products prices, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The 1.3% m/m increase previously reported for February was revised down to a 0.9% monthly gain. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 2.4% m/m increase in March. Export prices rose more than did import prices but also less than expected. They were up 1.6% m/m (5.6% y/y) in March following an upwardly revised 1.9% monthly rise in February. The 5.6% annual gain was the largest since November 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 2.1% monthly increase. (**Note**: Import and export price indexes are not directly affected by tariffs because they measure the prices of goods before taxes. Tariffs are classified as taxes and therefore are excluded from these calculations. October 2025 data were unavailable due to the U.S. federal government shutdown.)

Apart from the jump in imported petroleum prices, increases in other import prices were rather moderate in March. Import prices for fuels and lubricants increased 2.9% m/m in March, following an advance of 2.4% in February. The March increase was the largest monthly gain since the index rose 3.0% m/m in January 2025. Higher prices for petroleum more than offset lower prices for natural gas. In March, prices for imported petroleum and petroleum products advanced 9.4% while natural gas import prices declined 71.0% m/m in March, after having risen 77.3% over the prior three months. Prices for nonfuel imports advanced 0.6% m/m in March, following a rise of 0.8% m/m in February. Higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials (1.6% m/m), capital goods (0.5% m/m), consumer goods excluding automotives (0.4%), and foods, feeds, and beverages (0.5%) drove the increase. Nonfuel import prices advanced 2.8% y/y, the largest annual advance since the index rose 2.9% y/y in October 2022.

The March increase in exports prices reflected monthly gains in both agricultural and nonagricultural export prices. The price index for agricultural exports increased 0.9% m/m in March, following a 0.9% monthly rise in February. Higher prices for soybeans, fruit, and meat drove the advance in agricultural export prices in March. Export prices for nonagricultural commodities increased 1.7% m/m in March, after rising 2.1% in February. Higher prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials (+4.3% m/m, reflecting an 18.4% monthly jump in prices of petroleum and petroleum products) more than offset lower prices for capital goods (-0.2% m/m) and for consumer goods excluding automotives (-0.2% m/m). 

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Despite a 9.4% m/m jump in imported petroleum prices, import prices rose a less-than-expected 0.8% in March with a small downward revision to February.
- Export prices increased more than did import prices, rising 1.6% m/m in March, but this was also less than expected.

U.S. Import and Export Prices Increase Less than Expected in March

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Mortgage applications rebounded 1.8% w/w (5.0% y/y) in the week ending April 10 following a 0.8% decline in the week ending April 3, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the first w/w increase in five weeks, lifting the index to 281.0, its highest level since the March 20 week. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 1.0% (-2.9% y/y) in the April 10 week, the third w/w fall in four weeks, after a 1.1% gain in the previous week. Applications for loan refinancing rose 5.1% (14.8% y/y) in the April 10 week, the first w/w rise since the March 6 week, reversing a 2.8% drop in the April 3 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 8bps to 6.60% in the week ending April 10, the lowest since the March 13 week, from 6.68% in the week ending April 3; it was above a low of 6.29% in the week of September 20, 2024 but below a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages declined 5bps to a three-week-low 6.04% in the April 10 week from 6.09% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the week of September 20, 2024 but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans eased 4bps to 6.61% in the April 10 week, the lowest since the March 20 week, from 6.65% in the prior week; it was above a low of 6.57% in the week of September 13, 2024 but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on a 5-year ARM fell 5bps to 5.80% in the April 10 week, the lowest since the March 6 week, from 5.85% in the previous week; it was above its most recent low of 5.38% in the February 20 week but below a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rebounded to 45.5% of total applications in the week ending April 10, the first w/w increase since the February 27 week, from 44.3% in the week ending April 3; those numbers remained below a peak of 61.9% in the January 16 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity slipped to 8.4% in the April 10 week from 8.6% in the prior week; it was below a peak of 12.9% in the week of September 12, 2025 but above a low of 4.7% in the week of January 3, 2025.

The average size of a mortgage loan climbed 1.3% w/w (-4.8% y/y) to $395,000 in the April 10 week, the highest level since the March 13 week, after a 0.2% increase to $390,100 in the April 3 week. The average size of a purchase loan recovered 1.8% (2.4% y/y) to $456,100 in the April 10 week after a 0.3% decline to $448,100 in the prior week, marking the first w/w rise in four weeks and the highest level since the week of March 7, 2025. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 1.5% (-13.6% y/y) to $321,800 in the April 10 week, the highest level in three weeks, following a 0.1% uptick to $317,000 in the previous week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications -1.0% w/w, third decline in four weeks; refinancing loan applications +5.1% w/w, first rise since the March 6 week.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans down 8bps to 6.60%, a four-week low.
- Average loan size up to the highest level since the March 13 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Up 1.8% in the April 10 Week, First Gain in Five Weeks

Robert Brusca

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**The rebound that wasn’t**
Industrial production rebounded without vigor in February, gaining 0.4% after falling by 0.8% in January. Moreover, the trends are poor and show no sign of stabilization. 12-month to 6-month to 3-month overall output is sinking faster than is manufacturing output. And all the major manufacturing sectors show either clear signs or strong hints of progressively faster declines in output.

Half or more of the countries in the table report output falling in January and in February. This is not a stabilizing condition.

All sectors show quarter-to-date (QTD) declines in the unfolding Q1 output stream, and only six countries show QTD output increases in progress. The breadth of output increases is poor, and their trends for growth are extremely poor. So I have to brand this rebound as technically visible in February alone, but in a broader perspective, conditions are weakening.

In terms of sectors, only one EMU-wide sector has a 12-month growth rate above its median pace—that sector is capital goods, with a ranking in its 57th percentile compared to the median whose ranking is 50%. Only six countries in the table have manufacturing growth rates that exceed their historic median pace. That makes the breadth of IP growth as weak as well.

**Not reassuring**
There is nothing reassuring about the February IP report, and it precedes the onset of the Iran war. We have since seen very broad weakness ahead in the S&P PMI indexes. We are certainly headed for a difficult period ahead. Since the period of international disruption has just begun in March, we are entering this difficult time in a weakened position. It would seem to be a good time to get defensive since inflation is bound to go up and high oil prices will weaken demand and already are creating some significant local chaos in developing economics that already were hand-to-mouth.

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Europe

Euro Area IP Makes Modest Rebound—or Does it?

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As widely expected, energy prices surged in March, with the increase of 8.5% among the firmest in the history of the series. A reading in August 2023 was close (8.4%), and the increase in June 2022 was a touch firmer (8.9%). Only the June 2020 observation was decidedly stronger at 9.6%. (Data on the current version of the PPI begin in 2010.) The jump in energy prices pushed the headline index 0.5% higher, an uncomfortable reading but better than expectations in the market, which clustered in the range of 0.8% to 1.2%.

March represented the third consecutive month with a headline increase of 0.5%, and the advances in the prior two months were not entirely due to energy. Prices excluding food and energy also rose 0.5% in January and February (and December as well), which might stir thoughts of accelerating inflation.

However, pressure outside of energy cooled in March. Food prices fell 0.2% and prices excluding food and energy rose only 0.1%. Service prices, which rose an average of 0.6% in the prior three months, increased less than 0.1%. The modest changes outside of food and energy raised the prospect that an upward trend that seemed to be developing might now be fading. The March change, alone with a less-than-troubling increase in February, led to a downward tilt in the six-month moving average of core price changes (chart, below left).

All of the prices in the headline PPI and its components are final prices – that is, prices paid by the ultimate buyer of goods and services. For goods, the products involved will not undergo further processing. The full report on producer prices also includes price indexes for intermediate inputs. These indexes could provide clues on what might unfold for finished goods in months ahead. This obscure part of the PPI also offered a hint of encouragement.

Input prices for stage four production (i.e. the final stage of the production process) rose 0.5% in March. The increase, while hefty, was slower than the results in the prior two months and it stabilized the upward trend in the six-month average (chart, below right). The input price indexes should be interpreted cautiously because they tend to be more volatile than those for finished goods, but with broad-based cooling in March, this measure might have signal value in this instance.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Energy prices surged in March, but most other items showed modest changes.
- Tame readings were a relief from hints of upward pressure in prior months.

March PPI: Tame Excluding Energy

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Mortgage applications rose 7.9% w/w (29.9% y/y) in the week ending April 17 following a 1.8% rebound in the week ending April 10, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the second successive w/w gain and the largest since the February 27 week, lifting the index to 303.3, its highest level since the March 20 week. Applications for loans to purchase a house jumped 10.1% (14.5% y/y) in the April 17 week, the biggest w/w increase since the January 9 week, after a 1.0% decline in the previous week. Applications for loan refinancing rose 5.8% (51.9% y/y) in the April 17 week following a 5.1% rebound in the April 10 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 7bps to 6.53% in the week ending April 17 from 6.60% in the week ending April 10; it was above a low of 6.29% in the week of September 20, 2024 but below a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped 12bps to 5.92% in the April 17 week from 6.04% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the week of September 20, 2024 but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans declined 5bps to 6.56% in the April 17 week from 6.61% in the prior week; it was above its most recent low of 6.25% in the February 27 week but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. These three rates hit their lowest levels since the March 13 week. Meanwhile, the rate on a 5-year ARM edged up to 5.81% in the April 17 week, the first w/w increase in four weeks, from 5.80% in the previous week (the lowest since the March 6 week); it was above its most recent low of 5.38% in the February 20 week but below a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 44.2% of total applications in the week ending April 17—the sixth w/w fall in seven weeks and the lowest level since the week of August 1, 2025—after rising to 45.5% in the week ending April 10; those numbers remained below a peak of 61.9% in the January 16 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity declined to a three-week-low 8.0% in the April 17 week from 8.4% in the prior week; it was below a peak of 12.9% in the week of September 12, 2025 but above a low of 4.7% in the week of January 3, 2025.

The average size of a mortgage loan, up for the third consecutive week, rose 1.2% w/w (3.4% y/y) to $399,900 in the April 17 week, the highest level since the March 13 week, after a 1.3% increase to $395,000 in the April 10 week. The average size of a purchase loan eased 0.1% (+3.6% y/y) to $455,600 in the April 17 week, the fourth w/w decline in five weeks, following a 1.8% rebound to $456,100 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage climbed 2.4% (10.7% y/y) to $329,500 in the April 17 week after a 1.5% rise to $321,800 in the previous week, marking the third successive w/w increase and the highest level since the March 20 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications +10.1% w/w, biggest increase since the Jan. 9 week; refinancing loan applications +5.8% w/w, second consecutive rise.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans down 7bps to 6.53%, a five-week low.
- Average loan size up for the third straight week, highest level since the March 13 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Up 7.9% in the April 17 Week, Largest Gain Since Late February

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