Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Regional Fed surveys showing further manufacturing acceleration in August

Robert Brusca

260820E.jpg

The U.K. CBI (Confederation of British Industry) survey saw orders advance to a diffusion reading of -25 in August from -45 in July. Despite this huge shift, the percentile standing of the August measure is only in its 27th percentile. This ranking emerges after the third largest month-to-month change in the orders reading since late 1993.

In contrast, export orders made their largest monthly change in their month-to-month reading in August, and that boosted the diffusion reading to zero in August from -33 in July. This has impact of boosting the rank or queue standing to its 86.9 percentile, a strong historic standing. We are seeing strong increases in orders in August. These improvements are not always boosting the readings into a zone of strength or even normalcy, but they have taken the readings out of the extreme weak tails of their respective distributions.

**Looking ahead...**
The output volume diffusion reading, looking ahead to the next three months, improved to -7 in August from -30 in July. The month-to-month change in the reading is the seventh largest back-to-back improvement in that series. The expected output reading, however, is still only in its 16th percentile despite the extremely large monthly change.

On the other hand, the price expectations jumped to 22 in August from 11 in July, logging the 19th largest month-to-month increase, again on data back to late 1993. Average prices rank in their 84th percentile. So, their recent sizeable rise has pushed them up to the high distribution levels. Manufacturing output, which lags the CBI survey, is still much weaker and draws from a weaker period, judging from the CBI readings.

Growth seems to have picked up, but unfortunately so has inflation. The U.K. CPI-H measure rose by 0.6% m/m in July. It is now on an accelerating plane from 3.1% over 12 months to 3.4% annualized over six months to an annual pace of 3.7% over three months. Core inflation has been excessive and has popped over three months.

The U.K. situation remains a difficult one. Economic growth has not been very good. The party leader and labor party PM recently stepped down and has been replaced. Inflation has been excessive for a while. Despite deflating, inflation is moving back up again, and despite the unwind, it did not get back to 2% when it eased.

The pick-up in the CBI index is encouraging, but it is coming with increased price pressures. Relatively more of the improvement in orders is from exports, so the domestic economy is not looking like it will generate much in the way of sustainable inflation. A lot of inflation is still coming from energy, and no one really knows how to handicap that.

260820.jpg

United Kingdom

U.K. Industry Shows Sharp Improvement in CBI Survey

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

260819A2.jpg

260819B2.jpg

Mortgage applications edged down 0.4% w/w (-10.6% y/y) in the week ending August 14, after rising 3.6% w/w (-11.6% y/y) in the week ending August 7, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 2.0% w/w (-3.4% y/y) in the latest week, following a rise of 2.5% (-1.4% y/y) in the August 7 week.  Applications for loan refinancing rose 1.5% w/w (-18.4% y/y) in the August 14 week after rising 5.0% w/w (-22.2% y/y) in the August 7 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan was unchanged at 6.96% in the week ending August 14 from the week ending August 7, remaining at levels not seen since July/August 2025. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages declined 4bps to 6.29% in the August 14 week from 6.33% in the August 7 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate edged up 2ps to 6.85% in the latest week from 6.83% in the in the August 7 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM declined by 4bps to 6.26% in the August 14 week from 6.30% in the August 7 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 41.9% of total applications in the week of August 14 from 40.7% in the week ending August 7. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity declined to 7.7% in the latest week from 7.9% in the August 7 week.

The average size of a mortgage declined by 1.4% w/w (-3.5% y/y) to $374,100 in the week ending August 14 after inching down 0.7% w/w (-4.9% y/y) to $379,300 in the week ending August 7. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.2% w/w (+2.7% y/y) to $440,500 in the August 14 week after a similar decline of 0.2% w/w (+3.4% y/y) to $441,300 in the August 7 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage dropped 2.4% w/w (-17.0% y/y) to $282,200 in the latest week after declining 0.7% w/w (-21.1% y/y) to $289,200 in the August 7 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase declined, while applications for loan refinancing rose in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans was unchanged at 6.96%.
- Average loan size declined.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Edged Down in the August 14 Week

260819E.jpg

**Inflation in the Euro Area**
Inflation in the euro area was up in July, rising 0.5% month-to-month after prices fell by 0.1% in June. Core inflation notched up, increasing 0.3% in the month after rising by just 0.1% in June. Core inflation is steadily ramping up. Headline inflation ramps up but eases off over three months compared to six months.

Month-to-month inflation in July accelerated in over 84% of the categories. June was an anomaly with inflation accelerating in only 15% of the categories after accelerating in 46% of the categories in May. Sequential diffusions find inflation higher over three months than over six months in 38.5% of the categories, and in 69% of the categories over six months compared to 12 months. Inflation rates over 12 months are higher than 12 months ago also in 69% of the categories.

At 2.9% over 12 months, ECB inflation is above its targeted pace of 2%. At 2.5%, core inflation is also overshooting but not as badly. The graphic shows that inflation is overshooting in each of the four largest monetary union members. Food inflation is below 2% (0.8%), annual clothing & footwear inflation is low (0.1%), furnishing & household equipment inflation is low (0.4%), and communications inflation (1.7%) and recreation & culture inflation (1.5%) are both still within the bounds sought by the ECB. That’s five of eleven categories below 2%, running at their own individual paces. Housing & utilities costs and transportation are both logging inflation numbers far above the 2% mark; both are affected by rising energy costs. Education and hotels & restaurants are showing strong pressure for an assortment of other reasons.

260819.jpg

Clearly, the way forward for the ECB is going to depend a great deal on developments in the Middle East and the ease of traffic flow through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Europe has even deeper energy problems. Its inventories have been run down and are low. Those countries using nuclear power have found that drought conditions in Europe have reduced the flow of water across their major waterways and led to a reduction in nuclear power output or in some cases a shuttering of nuclear facilities because not enough cooling water can be obtained for reactors. Not only that, but transportation has been choked, supply lines interrupted, and deliveries delayed.

Come winter, Europe may have more power issues, as it will be depending on LNG shipments for its winter power.

Europe faces challenges. The inflation picture, previously benign, has become acute or at least difficult. Europeans can be angry at the U.S. for backing Israel and participating in an attack on Iran, an act that jolted European inflation out of its target path into the danger zone. But the U.S.-Israel joint action did destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, which it is now rebuilding. It exposed Iran as having longer-range missiles that it denied possessing. While the war, often now referred to as Trump’s war, is unpopular, you can ask yourself: would you really have preferred to let Iran go and develop nuclear weapons and make more long-range missiles so you could have cheap gasoline, for now? Would that world have been safer or better than this world? No one likes war. But Iran, acting through its vassal groups in the region, precipitated all this, starting with the attack on Israel by Hamas. One thing led to another and put us on this path. We cannot go back; time does not rewind. But the way forward now is much harder to see. And the way ahead seems to have a lot more risk, as levels of fiscal debt and the demand for military spending stoke more inflation and push monetary policy to be tighter. The war between Ukraine and Russia continues; Russia may be taking steps to make it broader. It is a series of events now feeding on itself, and it is a difficult and dangerous dynamic. It is no longer just about growth, monetary, and fiscal policy. The whole outlook is much more complicated.

Europe

Inflation in the Euro Area Gets Worse

Winnie Tapasanun

260818R23.jpg

260818S23.jpg

Industrial production (IP) rose a slightly less-than-expected 0.2% m/m in July, the third monthly rise in four months, following an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in June (+0.1% initially) and no change in May (+0.1% previously), according to data from the Federal Reserve Board. A 0.3% m/m July increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate held at 1.1% in July and June (1.4% in July 2025). The July IP index at 103.0 was 3.7% above a low of 99.3 in November 2024 and 3.8% above a low of 99.2 in January 2024.

By **industry groups**, manufacturing production grew 0.2% (1.2% y/y) in July, the fifth m/m gain in six months, after an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in June (0.0% initially) and a flat reading in May (+0.1% previously). Durable goods production advanced 0.7% (3.9% y/y) in July, the seventh consecutive m/m rise, adding to a 0.2% increase in June. Within durables, almost all categories rose m/m in July, led by a 2.4% rebound (0.6% y/y) in wood products, followed by rises of 1.9% (9.9% y/y) in computer & electronic products, 1.4% (4.5% y/y) in aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, 1.4% (1.6% y/y) in primary metals, 1.3% (6.2% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 1.2% (2.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.8% (4.4% y/y) in machinery, 0.7% (-5.0% y/y) in furniture & related products, and 0.4% (2.8% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods. Notably, aircraft & parts production climbed 1.6% (8.2% y/y), the sixth successive m/m rise, after a 1.0% June increase. To the downside, durable goods categories for motor vehicles & parts (-2.1%; +2.1% y/y) and nonmetallic mineral products (-0.2%; +3.8% y/y) posted m/m decreases in July.

Nondurable goods production fell 0.4% (-1.6% y/y) in July, the second m/m fall in three months, following a 0.5% increase in June. The July output decline was led by a 2.5% drop (-2.5% y/y) in printing & related support activities, followed by decreases of 1.9% (+0.5% y/y) in apparel & leather goods, 0.7% (-1.6% y/y) in food, beverages & tobacco, 0.7% (-3.5% y/y) in paper, and 0.2% (-2.9% y/y) in chemicals. To the upside, the following nondurable goods categories rose m/m in July, including output rises of 0.8% (-0.1% y/y) in textiles & product mills, 0.2% (0.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, and 0.2% (2.2% y/y) in plastics & rubber products.

Utilities output rose 0.5% (0.7% y/y), the fourth consecutive m/m gain and the fifth in six months, following a 0.1% uptick in June (+0.4% initially), reflecting a 0.5% increase (1.3% y/y) in electric utilities output and a 0.4% rebound (-3.0% y/y) in natural gas utilities output. Mining activity grew 0.2% (1.0% y/y), the third m/m rise in four months, after a 0.3% June increase (+0.4% initially).

By **market groups**, business equipment output rose 0.8% (6.6% y/y), the eighth straight m/m rise, on top of a 0.4% increase in June. Construction supplies production advanced 0.8% (2.4% y/y), the fourth m/m gain in five months, after a 0.1% June uptick. Materials production increased 0.3% (1.0% y/y), up for the third time in four months, after a 0.2% June rise. In contrast, consumer goods output fell 0.4% (-1.8% y/y) in July after a 0.3% rebound in June, reflecting declines of 1.4% (-1.6% y/y) in durable consumer goods and 0.1% (-1.8% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods.

In **special classifications**, factory output of selected high-tech industries strengthened 1.9% (11.8% y/y) in July after a 1.6% increase in June, marking the fourth successive m/m gain and the ninth in 10 months. Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech industries edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y) in July after a 0.3% rise in June, and manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts rose 0.3% (0.7% y/y) after a 0.2% increase; both registered the fifth m/m gain in six months.

Capacity utilization inched up to 76.3% in July, the highest since July 2025, from an upwardly revised 76.2% in June (76.1% initially). The result matched the forecast by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The July reading was 3.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization edged up to 76.0% in July, the highest since June 2024, from an upwardly revised 75.9% in June (75.7% previously). The July rate was 2.2 percentage points below its long-run average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

260818T23.jpg

260818U23.jpg

- July IP +0.2% (+1.1% y/y), third m/m increase in four months.
- Manufacturing +0.2% (+1.2% y/y), w/ durables +0.7% and nondurables -0.4%.
- Selected high-tech +1.9%, ninth gain in 10 mths.; motor vehicles -2.1%, first m/m drop since March.
- Utilities +0.5% (+0.7% y/y), fourth straight m/m rise, led by a 0.5% gain in electric utilities output.
- Mining +0.2% (+1.0% y/y), up for the third time in four mths.
- Key categories in market groups mostly increase.
- Capacity utilization up to 76.3%, a one-year high; mfg. capacity utilization up to 76.0%, highest since June ’24.

U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output Up in July, Extending Growth Trend

Michael J. Moran

260818A.jpg

260818B.jpg

Import prices fell 0.4% in July, led by a drop of 3.2% in industrial supplies and materials, which, in turn, was heavily influenced by prices of petroleum products. July marked the second consecutive decline in the industrial supply category (off 1.4% in June), but these changes followed pronounced increases in the preceding three months. Prices of industrial supplies were still noticeably higher than readings before the start of the conflict with Iran (up 15.7% yr/yr).

Excluding petroleum products, import prices rose 0.3%, with a jump of 0.9% in the prices of capital goods standing out. Prices of imported capital goods have climbed steadily throughout the year, with the year-over-year increase totaling 6.6%. The pressure was no doubt led by tech investment.

Other categories of import prices were generally contained. Prices of imported food jumped 0.9% in July, but they had declined in the prior two months and were well contained in preceding months. The year-over-year change in the prices of imported food totaled only 0.2%. Motor vehicles also have been restrained in the past year. They rose 0.2% in July, but softness in prior months left a year-over-year change of -0.1%. Prices of imported consumer goods were unchanged in July, and they were well behaved in most prior months. However, the latest report brought an upward revision of 1.1 percentage points in April, which was followed by an increase of 0.4% in May. The consumer goods category rose 2.3% in the past 12 months.

Some observers might be seeking clues to the effects of tariffs on import prices. The upward revision to consumer goods prices in April might stir thoughts of a tariff effect. However, prices in this report are based on invoices before the imposition of tariffs. If a foreign business was absorbing the effect of a tariff, that would be reflected in a lower price or a smaller increase than would have occurred otherwise. Such unpacking is difficult with these figures.

On the export side, prices fell 1.3%, with a drop of 4.0% in the industrial supplies category generating all of the decline. The industrial supply category also fell in June (off 2.0%), but was up 15.7% in the past year. Capital goods prices, like those on the import side, have been under upward pressure, although the degree of pressure has been less intense. Prices rose 0.5% in July and were up 3.6% in the past year. Prices of exported food have moved erratically, but they are trending noticeably higher on balance. An increase of 1.0% in July, along with spikes in other recent months, has left a year-over-year increase of 5.7% in food exports. Prices of motor vehicles jumped 0.7% in July, but they have been subdued in many recent months, resulting in a year-over-year advance of 2.3%. Prices of exported consumer goods rose 3.5% in the past year, but most of the increase occurred in late 2025 and early this year; this category has been quiet in recent months (averaging increases of 0.1% in the past three months).

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260818C.jpg

260818D.jpg

- The retreat in the price of crude oil pushed both import and export prices lower.
- Prices of capital goods are under upward pressure on both sides of the trade ledger.

Import and Export Prices in July: Petroleum-Led Restraint

Sandy Batten

260818F4.jpg

260818G4.jpg

Weighed down by further rises in longer-term interest rates and elevated inventories, housing construction fell markedly in July, declining a larger-than-expected 12.4% m/m (-13.5% y/y) to 1.239 million units at an annual rate following a surprising 19.7% monthly surge in June. This is the second lowest level of starts since the economy was shut down during the COVID pandemic in 2020. The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 5.4% m/m decline in July. Residential investment has been a persistent drag on real GDP growth recently but surprisingly added 0.05%-point to overall GDP growth in Q2 after having subtracted from overall growth in each of the previous five quarters. However, today’s report indicates that residential investment could return to being a drag in Q3.

Single-family starts plunged 9.9% m/m (-15.7% y/y) in July, the third monthly decline in the past four months, to the lowest level since November 2022. They had edged up 0.9% m/m in June. Usually volatile multi-family starts have been even more erratic over the past few months. They plummeted 16.8% m/m (-8.9% y/y) in July after a 76.8% monthly surge in June but a 41.4% monthly decline in May.

Starts fell in three of the four major geographic regions. Starts rose 17.1% m/m (62.4% y/y) in the Northeast in July on top of a 27.3% monthly gain in June. By contrast, starts fell 27.6% m/m (-27.0% y/y) in the Midwest, nearly reversing a 28.5% m/m jump in June. Starts declined 12.6% m/m (-24.1% y/y) in the South, the third monthly decline in the past four months. Starts decreased 13.8% m/m (+5.3% y/y) in the West, also the third monthly decline in the past four months.

In contrast to the marked decline in housing starts, housing permits rose 5.0% m/m (+3.1% y/y) in July, the first monthly increase in three months, to the highest level (1.443 million units) since February. Expectations were for little change in permits in July. Single-family permits rebounded, rising 2.5% m/m (+1.1% y/y) in July following a 2.2% monthly decline in June. Multi-family permits jumped 9.4% m/m (+6.4% y/y) in July, the first monthly increase in three months.

Reversing the regional performance of starts, permits fell in the Northeast (-2.6% m/m, +16.2% y/y), the first monthly decline in four months, but rose in each of the other three regions. Permits jumped 12.3% m/m (+2.7% y/y) in the Midwest, rose 6.6% m/m (-0.9% y/y) in the South and edged up 0.3% m/m (+8.0% y/y) in the West. 

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260818H4.jpg

260818I4.jpg

- Housing starts plunged 12.4% m/m in July after a 19.7% monthly surge in June.
- Single family starts fell 9.9% m/m to their lowest level since November 2022 while multi-family starts plummeted 16.8% m/m.
- Less volatile permits increased 5.0% m/m in July, the first monthly increase in three months, with a 2.5% monthly gain in single-family permits and a 9.4% monthly jump in multi-family permits.

U.S. Housing Starts Fell Markedly in July

260818E.jpg

**The Economic Situation**: This month the ZEW series from German financial experts shows improving economic situations. Two of the four featured economies improve: the euro area improves to a reading of -21.5 in August from -37.7 in July, and the German economy advances to -61.1 from -77.6. The U.S. worsens to a reading of 12.9 in August from 14.9 in July, and the Chinese assessment is nearly unchanged at -25.1 in August compared to -25.2 in July. Apart from these diffusion readings and quite different from the diffusion readings is the Chinese ranking in a top position with a 73.8 percentile standing. The euro area has a 56.6 percentile standing. The U.S. has a 41.7 percentile standing. Germany has a 30.9 percentile standing. Only China and the euro area have standings above the 50th mark, which place them above their historic medians for their respective periods.

**Macroeconomic expectations**: Macroeconomic expectations are provided for the country-level readings for Germany, the U.S., and China. All three countries make an improvement in August, with the largest improvement coming from Germany and the smallest improvement coming in China. The standings show that, in terms of macroeconomic expectations, Germany’s economy has a 58.8 percentile standing, the U.S. has a 48.2 percentile standing, close to its median but below it, and China has a 41.5 percentile standing.

**Inflation expectations**: The inflation expectations poll in August compared to July shows all countries with a drop off, including large drop-offs, in inflation concerns. Euro area expectations fall to 2.4 in August from 10.4 in July. In Germany, that expectation falls to a net diffusion reading of 1.8 from 14.9 in July. There is a sizeable drop off in China too, which logs 5.3 in August compared to 12.9 in July. The U.S. improvement is smaller at 11.8, down from 15.0 in July. While the diffusion readings are different across these countries, the percentile standings are fairly similar. The euro area, Germany, and China all have percentile standings in the range of roughly 36th to 38th percentile, while the U.S. percentile standing is lower at its 26th percentile. Despite what we are seeing in markets, the ZEW experts are undeterred in their inflation outlooks.

**Expectations for short-term rates**: Short-term interest rate expectations don't change in the euro area. There is some further backing off in the U.S. and substantial downshifting in China where there's a sign change to -2.1 in August from plus 8.8 in July. In August, the euro area has a nearly 80th percentile standing for its diffusion value. The U.S. has a slightly below-median 48th percentile standing, and China has a slightly above median standing at its 52nd percentile.

**Long-term rates moderate**: Long-term interest rate expectations show some moderation in August to pair with moderate queue standings. Germany falls to 24.2 in August from 27.7 in July, the U.S. steps back to 27.7 from 30.8 in July, and China backs down to a diffusion value of 12.3 from 17.0 in July. Germany and the U.S. have rankings around their 33rd percentile mark, while China has a ranking around its 55th percentile mark. Despite the lower diffusion reading, Chinese long-term rate expectations are high relative to historic experience in relation to the U.S. and Germany.

**Upbeat on Stocks**: One interesting feature is the positive outlook on stocks in August, with all four responding areas, the euro area, Germany, the U.S., and China, logging diffusion values close to 40. These are up from readings that were bunched around the 20 to 25 diffusion mark in July. Despite the clustering of the diffusion values, the queue percentile standings vary quite a lot. For China, the current reading, which is the weakest diffusion reading for stocks in the table of the four, has a 92.3 percentile standing. The U.S. has a 74.4 percentile standing, and the euro area has a 59.3 percentile standing. Germany has the lowest percentile standing, just below its median at a 49.7 percentile mark.

260818.jpg

The ZEW experts seem to be expecting a greater prospect of short-term interest rate increases based on the queue standings they report this month. Inflation expectations are relatively low by historic standards; however, that doesn't mean that interest rates can't or won't increase. Long-term interest rates seem to be in a pretty good spot, with 33rd percentile standings, except for the higher standing in China. All around, the ZEW experts are quite upbeat on the prospects for stocks that are well-supported by the low queue standings for things like short-term rate expectations, inflation expectations, and stable readings particularly in Germany and the U.S. for long-term interest rates. These expectations are particularly helpful in terms of the outlook for the stock market.

ZEW Survey Shows Some Stability and Improvement

260817J53.jpg

260817K53.jpg

The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions unexpectedly rose to 20.6 in August following a 9.9-point rebound to 15.6 in July, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. A reading of 10.0 for August had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The positive August figure indicated that business activity in New York State expanded for the fifth consecutive month and at the fastest pace since December 2021; it was a sharp improvement from 9.1 in August 2025 and a low of -29.7 in January 2024. The percentage of respondents reporting an increase in general business conditions was 43.8% in August, up from 39.0% in July; the percentage reporting a decrease was 23.1%, down from July’s 23.4%. The latest survey was conducted between August 3 and August 10.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity and is not calculated from the components. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. This calculated index declined to 55.4 in August following a 4.1-point gain to 57.5 in July, representing the eighth straight expansion but at a slightly slower pace; it was modestly up from 53.8 in August 2025 and well above a low of 43.0 in January 2024. The index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories, with equal weights (20% each).

In the latest survey, the new orders index fell to 17.3 in August after an 18.7-point jump to 22.2 in July, marking the eighth consecutive expansion but at a slower pace; it was a sharp improvement from a low of -30.7 in January 2024 but a decline from a high of 19.6 in April 2023. The shipments index dropped to 11.7 in August following a 15.8-point recovery to 24.4 in July, representing the fifth successive expansion; it was well above a low of -21.7 in April 2024 but below a high of 21.0 in June 2023. The unfilled orders index jumped to 15.5 in August after holding at 5.0 in July and June, indicating unfilled orders expanded for the seventh straight month and at the highest level since April 2022; the index reached a low of -24.2 in January 2024. The inventories index fell to -5.2 in August following a 4.0-point increase to 4.0 in July, signaling inventories contracted for the first time since January and at the lowest level since August 2025. Meanwhile, the delivery times index rose to 20.6 in August, the highest reading since April 2022, from 13.0 in July, with 26.8% of respondents reporting longer delivery times and 6.2% reporting shorter times, indicating that delivery times continued to lengthen substantially.

On the labor front, the number of employees index decreased to 9.3 in August after a 1.8-point increase to 11.4 in July (the highest level since December 2022), indicating that employment expanded for the seventh consecutive month but at the slowest rate since May. The index remained well above a low of -9.3 in December 2023 but below a peak of 24.9 in February 2022. In August, 14.8% of respondents reported an increase in employment while 5.5% reported a decline. The average workweek index rebounded to 6.9 in August, a three-month high, from 2.8 in July (the lowest level since March), remaining positive for the seventh successive month.

Inflation pressures remained elevated in August. The prices paid index rose to 58.6 in August after an 8.7-point drop to 52.3 in July. The index was above a low of 25.9 in December 2024 and a low of 20.8 in December 2023, albeit remaining well below a peak of 84.9 in April 2022. In August, 59.4% of respondents reported higher prices paid while only 0.8% reported lower prices paid. The prices received index slid to 22.7 in August, a four-month low, from 27.6 in July. The index was above a low of 7.5 in December 2024 and a low of 7.7 in July 2023 but far below a high of 51.9 in March 2022. In August, 26.6% of respondents reported higher prices received while 3.8% reported lower prices received.

Firms remained optimistic about the future business outlook in the latest survey. The index for future business conditions increased to 32.1 in August, the highest level since May, after a 2.2-point easing to 27.9 in July, with 47.0% of respondents expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months. Future new orders climbed to 37.1 in August, the highest level since March 2022, from 33.2 in July, and future shipments rose to 33.7, a seven-month high, from 30.6. Growth in future employment accelerated to 28.2, the highest reading since March 2022, from July’s 14.4. Capital spending plans remained positive for the 10th straight month in August, with the future capital expenditures index rising to 16.5, a five-month high, from July’s 15.0. Expected prices paid rose to 57.7 in August from a four-month-low 53.0 in July, and expected prices received increased to 48.7 from a three-month-low 41.9.

The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

260817L53.jpg

260817M3.jpg

- General Business Conditions Index up 5.0 pts. to 20.6 in Aug.; fifth straight expansion.
- New orders (17.3) down 4.9 pts. and shipments (11.7) down 12.7 pts. from a four-year high, both still indicating expansion.
- Unfilled orders (15.5), highest since Apr. ’22; inventories (-5.2), first contraction since Jan.
- Employment (9.3), a three-month low following July’s highest level since Dec. ’22.
- Prices paid (58.6) up 6.3 pts. from July; prices received (22.7), a four-month low.
- Firms remaining optimistic: Future Business Conditions Index up to 32.1, a three-month high; future prices paid rising to 57.7 from a four-month low.

U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Surprises to the Upside in August, Highest Since Dec. ’21

large_260824A55.jpg

medium_260824A55.jpg

small_260824A55.jpg

thumbnail_260824A55.jpg

260824A55.jpg

large_260824B55.jpg

medium_260824B55.jpg

small_260824B55.jpg

thumbnail_260824B55.jpg

260824B55.jpg

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was at -0.08 in July, down from an upwardly revised +0.06 in June (-0.02 initially) and up from -0.12 in May (-0.19 previously), today’s report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed, indicating that economic activity was below its historical trend for the second time in three months in July after slightly above the historical trend in June. The latest CFNAI was above a low of -0.50 in October 2025 but below a reading of +0.02 in July 2025 and a high of +0.39 in February 2025.

The index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, declined to -0.04 in July from an upwardly revised +0.01 in June (-0.05 initially), registering the second negative reading in three months. It was above a low of -0.39 in October 2025 and -0.13 in July 2025 but below a high of +0.07 in February 2025. The CFNAI-MA3 is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the Chicago Fed indicates that an average reading of -0.70 or below is consistent with the economy being in a recession. Therefore, the July reading suggested that the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession.

The July reading reflected m/m declines in three of the four CFNAI key components and two negative contributions. The contribution of the Production & Income index to the CFNAI eased to +0.01 in July, still the third positive reading in four months, from +0.04 in June; it was below +0.09 in July 2025 and a high of +0.37 in February 2025 but above a low of -0.61 in January 2024. The contribution of the Sales, Orders & Inventories index edged down to +0.02 in July from +0.04 in June; it was above +0.01 in July 2025 and a low of -0.20 in April 2025 but below a high of +0.16 in March 2025. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours index contributed -0.01 in July, the best of three consecutive negative readings, up from -0.05 in June; it was above its recent low of -0.13 in February and -0.12 in July 2025 but below its recent high of +0.05 in January. The contribution of the Personal Consumption & Housing index fell to -0.09 in July, the third negative reading in four months and the lowest level since May 2025, from +0.04 in June; it was below +0.03 in July 2025 and a high of +0.10 in March 2025 but above a low of -0.14 in January 2025.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index—which measures the breadth of change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average—slipped to +0.05 in July, the fourth positive reading in five months, from an upwardly revised +0.09 in June (-0.03 initially). A string of negative readings was posted during the March 2023 to February 2026 period. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. The July reading was above a low of -0.56 in October 2025 and -0.20 in July 2025 but below a high of +0.15 in September 2022.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- CFNAI down to -0.08 in July, negative for the second time in three months.
- Three of four CFNAI components down m/m; two make negative contributions.
- CFNAI-MA3 down to -0.04, second negative reading in three mths.; still above -0.70 (recession signal).
- CFNAI Diffusion Index down to +0.05, remaining positive for the fourth time in five mths.


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Negative in July After June’s Upwardly Revised Positive Reading

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

Tokyo

London

Singapore

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

#### Academic Data Scope
National Account (GDP), Production, Labour Market, Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Policy & International Trade. High-frequency data covering financial variables and drivers of the real economy, and key ESG environmental indicators. Plus, time series from the IMF on 190+ countries to aid cross comparison.

University

#### Move Back through Time
Terabytes of time series from primary sourced databases available in monthly snapshots as early as 2000, in weekly snapshots as early as 2007 or the point of inception of the database. 

#### True DLX Database Snapshots
The data are true snapshots of DLX databases unrevised from the point in time of update.  Easily view our archive data in HaverView with thousands of monthly archives currently available for over 60 unique databases. 

260819DA1.jpg

<br></br>

**CMDTY** → Spot Prices → Shanghai Metals Market Prices

We expanded our metal prices offering sourced from Shanghai Metals Market in the **CMDTY** database. Twenty-four new prices were added to this table including battery-grade lithium carbonate, three rare earth metals, four rare earth oxides, and fifteen minor metals. Daily data start as early as December 2006.

Chart: Erbium is a heavy rare earth element with a narrow but strategically significant demand profile anchored in telecommunications infrastructure. Secondary applications include laser technology, nuclear reactors, and certain alloys. These use cases position erbium as a heavy rare earth with genuine industrial demand but without the supply scarcity or explosive demand growth of magnet elements such as dysprosium and terbium. Erbium’s price trajectory is therefore more stable and is less exposed to the EV and wind turbine demand cycles that dominate rare earth investment narratives.

260819DA2.jpg

<br></br>

**TRANSPRT** → Vehicle Statistics → **Singapore** → Motor Vehicle Registrations by Vehicle & Fuel Type

Motor vehicle registration statistics by class of vehicle and fuel type for Singapore were added to the **TRANSPRT** database. Vehicle classes include cars, taxis, motorcycles, goods transport vehicles, and buses. Fuel type detail includes petrol, diesel, full electric, and various forms of hybrid technologies. These monthly data are sourced from the Land Transport Authority and start in January 2016.

Chart: Although fossil fuel-powered cars still outnumber cars with EV technology by a margin of more than 2 to 1, the rate of EV technology adoption in Singapore has been significant. In January of 2016, the margin was 90 to 1. The total stock of passenger cars has increased by a modest 8.5% in the last decade in Singapore, but during this time we have seen a decrease in the stock of fossil fuel-powered cars decrease by 23%. During this same period, registrations of electric and hybrid cars increased by 2,900%, making Singapore a regional leader in EV technology adoption.

260819DA3.jpg

- Freight transport cost statistics for Russia were added to the **TRANSPRT** database.
- We expanded our metal prices offering sourced from Shanghai Metals Market in the **CMDTY** database.
- Motor vehicle registration statistics by class of vehicle and fuel type for Singapore were added to the **TRANSPRT** database.

Featured Data Additions, August 19, 2026

Tian Yong Woon

In this week's Letter, we examine how Japan's hard-won reflation is being tested by an energy shock and a fiscal turn. Japan has come a long way in achieving substantive inflation and, more recently, real wage growth, substantiating its tightening cycle (chart 1). Q2 real GDP growth nonetheless underwhelmed, dragged partly by a slump in public inventories that may prove one-off (chart 2). More discouraging was private consumption, whose contribution to growth was flat over the quarter. Delving into the household picture, real spending has continued to shrink despite real wage gains in recent months (chart 3). Elevated energy prices appear to be affecting household behaviour, stalling the translation of higher wages into domestic demand-led growth. 

Recent market moves have reflected other drivers, including renewed yen weakness after a short-lived appreciation prompted by intervention. Government bond yields have surged, reflecting both tightening expectations and concerns over Japan's fiscal health, in a climb extending well beyond Japan (chart 4). One potential offset to elevated global oil prices is domestic, and it lies in rice. Last year's constrained supply has evolved into a glut this year, with prices diving (chart 5). Given rice's weight in the consumption basket, the deflationary effects may be significant. Lastly, we turn to fiscal prospects, with talk of the 2027 budget already underway. Investors are watchful of the cabinet's expansionary bias, and how increased spending and food tax cuts may lift bond issuance, with details still scant at this juncture (chart 6).
 
**Japan’s state of play**
Japan has already managed to get many things going in its favour. After decades of low to negative inflation, consumer inflation rose above 2%, though it has since eased to just above 1% (chart 1). Accompanying the pickup in price pressures is wage growth, which has risen in nominal terms over recent years. Only more recently has it grown in excess of consumer inflation, indicating an interim period of real wage growth that generally benefits households. Sustained inflation alongside wage growth is what the Bank of Japan has long sought. With such conditions among others fulfilled, the central bank had some justification to begin normalising monetary policy, with its latest rate hike in June this year. Complications nonetheless remain. Persisting tensions between the US and Iran are keeping oil prices elevated, threatening to upend Japan's recovery in its domestic sector. They have also prompted government measures to support growth and help households tide through price increases. Those measures have drawn their own concerns, especially over Japan's fiscal health, which we discuss in more detail later.

260824T1.jpg

**Japan’s Q2 GDP**
Touching more on Japan's recent growth readings, the latest Q2 figures grant us an updated snapshot. Real GDP rose 1.1% q/q SAAR, missing estimates, with the drag coming predominantly from private non-residential investment and a sharp decrease in public inventories. Some sources attribute the latter to the release of national oil reserves. If true, that would point to likely one-off growth dampening effects from such a move. These effects aside, the nil contribution of private consumption to growth is more discouraging (chart 2). It underscores some weakness in domestic demand, perhaps as consumers still grapple with rising costs of living. Much of the growth during the quarter was instead driven by government spending and net exports.

260824T2.jpg

**Japanese households**
And therein lies the puzzle, whereby Japan has seen sustained real wage growth over the past few months. At the same time, real household spending has persistently shrunk (chart 3). The largest slumps in June came in apparel, furniture and utilities. These underscore a dialling back of expenditure as elevated costs of living continue to bite, even as real earning power has improved. Thus, at least for now, the supposed transmission mechanism from improved wages to consumption has not yet fully materialised. That may hampers so-called domestic demand-led growth, and may complicate monetary policy decision making should such a bottleneck persist. 

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Negative in July After June’s Upwardly Revised Positive Reading

Recent Commentaries

Economic Letter from Asia: Heating Up

Flash S&P PMIs Show Ongoing Improvement Amid Unsettled Geopolitics

State Labor Markets in July 2026

U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Rose to Five-Year High in August

Charts of the Week: The Cost of Capital Climbs

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Declined in the Week of August 15

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Regional Fed surveys showing further manufacturing acceleration in August

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints