Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

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DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

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All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

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Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
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- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

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Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Higher energy prices providing most of the boost to recent increase in EA inflation

Sandy Batten

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) narrowed slightly to $105.0 billion in September from an upwardly revised $105.7 billion in August (previously -$105.6 billion), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a deficit of $107.9 billion. The goods deficit narrowed to $135.9 billion in September from $136.6 billion in August while the services surplus was essentially unchanged at +$30.9 billion.

The real (inflation-adjusted) trade deficit in goods widened to $119.5 billion (2017$) in September from $116.0 billion in August. For all of Q3, the real deficit totaled $341.6 billion versus $277.8 billion in August. This marked widening in the real deficit was already noted in the release of the first estimate of real GDP for Q3 where it was reported that the widening of the trade deficit subtracted 3.3%-points from overall real GDP growth in Q3.

Exports of goods and services increased 1.9% m/m (+10.0% y/y) in September on top of a 1.6% monthly gain in August. These two consecutive months of increased exports followed three consecutive monthly declines. Goods exports (Census basis) rose 2.5% m/m (12.6% y/y) in September, the largest monthly gain since April. Increases were widely spread across major end-use categories. Exports of food and feeds jumped 13.3% m/m, the largest monthly increase since October 2021. Exports of capital goods excluding autos increased 5.5% m/m, the third consecutive monthly rise. Exports of consumer goods ex autos increased 3.7% m/m, the third increase in the past four months. By contrast, auto exports slumped 5.6% m/m, the third consecutive monthly decline and the fifth decline in the past six months. Services exports increased 0.7% m/m (+4.4% y/y) in September following a 0.3% monthly rise in August. Transport exports increased 0.8% m/m; travel was up 1.8% m/m; charges for the use of intellectual property rose 0.6% m/m, the fourth consecutive monthly gain.

Imports of goods and services increased 1.2% m/m (21.3% y/y) in September, a slowdown from a 4.4% monthly gain in August. Goods imports (Census basis) increased 2.4% m/m (28.2% y/y) in September but were generally weak apart from imports of capital goods with goods imports declining in four of the six major end-use categories. The importance of AI-related investment continued to dominate with imports of capital goods ex autos up 7.9% m/m (77.8% y/y). In the past three months, capital goods imports have risen 25.5%. Excluding capital goods imports, the remainder of imports fell 1.9% m/m, the third monthly decline in the past four months. Imports of consumer goods ex autos rose 4.1% m/m in September, more than offsetting a 0.8% monthly decline in August. Service imports increased 1.0% m/m (3.0% y/y) in September following a 0.5% m/m increase in August. The September increase was led by a 1.8% m/m gain in transport imports and a 3.4% m/m gain in travel imports.

By country, the goods trade deficit with China widened to $17.9 billion in September from $16.4 billion in August. This was the widest deficit with China since April 2025. The trade deficit with the European Union widened to $14.2 billion in September from $11.0 billion in August. The trade deficit with Japan increased to $4.8 billion in September from $3.7 billion in August.

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The deficit in goods and services narrowed to $105.0 billion in September from $105.7 billion in August.
- This capped off a quarter in which the trade deficit widened markedly, subtracting 3.3%-points from overall GDP.
- The goods deficit narrowed to $135.9 billion in September, while the services surplus was essentially unchanged at $30.9 billion.
- Exports rose 1.9% m/m, led by strong increases in exports of food and feeds and of capital goods.
- Imports increased by 1.2% m/m, once again dominated by increased AI-related capital goods imports.

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in September

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications fell 1.2% w/w (-42.0% y/y) in the week ending October 30, after rising 3.4% w/w (-42.4% y/y) in the week ending October 23, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 2.0% w/w (-19.5% y/y) in the latest week, after rising 3.8% w/w (-18.4% y/y) in the October 23 week. Applications for loan refinancing edged up 0.1% w/w (-59.9% y/y) in the October 30 week following a rise of 2.7% w/w (-61.1% y/y) in the October 23 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 7bps to 7.52% in the week ending October 30 from 7.59% in the week ending October 23, its third consecutive weekly decline from 7.75% in the October 9 week. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 9bps to 7.00% in the October 30 week from 6.91% in the October 23 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate fell 12bps to 7.34% in the latest week from 7.46% in the October 23 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped by 20bps to 6.66% in the October 30 week from 6.86% in the October 23 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 39.8% of total applications in the week of October 30 from 38.9% in the week ending October 23. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity edged up to 11.4% in the latest week from 11.3% in the October 23 week.

The average size of a mortgage fell 0.3% w/w (-9.0% y/y) to $377,400 in the week ending October 30, after rising 1.7% w/w (-8.2% y/y) to $378,600 in the week ending October 23. The average size of a purchase loan edged up 0.1% w/w to $452,600 in the October 30 week after rising 1.7% w/w to $452,100 in the October 23 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 0.2% w/w to $263,500 in the week ending October 30 after increasing 1.7% w/w to $262,900 in the October 23 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase declined and applications for loan refinancing edged up in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans fell 7bps to 7.52%.
- Average loan size edged down in the October 30 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fell in the October 30 Week

Robert Brusca

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The S&P Global PMI data for October show a very broad worsening, with only 6 of 25 reporting countries logging month-to-month improvement. However, the average PMI reading for the total PMIs on an unweighted basis in October yields a value of 52.1 compared to 52.8 in September, a modest drop for such broad weakening. The group median, however, was unchanged at 52.3 in October compared to 52.3 in September. The number of jurisdictions contracting in October rose to 7 from 5 in September, back to where it was in August and back to its six-month average for the number of reporters contracting.

There is no single number that can adequately pin down exactly how this diverse group of countries is performing; no single metric can characterize the global economy adequately. However, we can see from the various metrics that there's a good deal of irregularity, and the deterioration itself may not have been large. There's a fairly broad-based deterioration that occurred from September to October. Even so, the average reading in October is slightly below the three-month average of 52.4, which is stronger than its six-month and 12-month readings for the pooled group average. The group median, at 52.3, is nearly the same as the 52.4 reading for the last three months, which is a reading above its six-month and 12-month values. In short, there appears to be some mixing around and oscillation of the performance metrics by some of the reporting countries, but not so clear erosion.

The average reading for the group consisting of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Monetary Union shows 52.1 for the 12-month average, 52.4 for the six-month average, and then a rise to 53.9 for the three-month average. The October reading for this group at 53.6 is below the three-month average. But the October reading is still above the six-month and 12-month averages.

The shaded areas in the table identify periods when the readings are below 50, indicating a decline in activity in PMI terms. There are five reporting areas that have this characteristic over three months, six months, and 12 months. They are France, Brazil, Zambia, Egypt, and Qatar.

Despite various degrees of improving or deteriorating, there are 17 reporters that record total PMI values above 50 over three months, six months, and 12 months. And there are 16 that show expansion over each of the last three months. Growth rules.

At least growth has been the rule. It's not clear that there's been a lot of strength. To assess strength, we look at the queue percentile standings that rank the current October readings against all previous values back to January 2021. Queue percentile standings have an average value of 52.1% and a median of 48%. The average is about two percentile points above the neutral diffusion reading of 50, while the median across these reporters is about two percentile points below the neutral reading, indicating no change in output. There are 11 reporters with queue standings below their 50th percentile, putting them below their medians for the period. Among the weakest reporters are Qatar at a 4.3% standing and Brazil at a 7.2% standing; Australia and Zambia have standings at their respective 17th percentiles. That leaves 14 countries above their 50% mark and, therefore, above their historic medians. Only two countries log standings in their 90th percentiles, Kenya and Nigeria. Other than these two, the highest standings are in the 70th percentile, such as the U.S. (at a 79.7 percentile), Spain, Germany, Singapore, and Japan. The more advanced countries have standings at higher percentile markers; however, France and Italy are exceptions with readings that are in their respective 30th percentiles.

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The global economy is in a period of significant transition with countries fighting off inflation stemming from war in the Middle East owing to substantially higher oil prices, but also from the interruption of other supply lines, and the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. All of this, of course, is occurring in the aftermath of COVID; the main COVID disruption ended slightly less than five years ago. It has been a difficult period. And it is leading now to some significant political displacements, with Europe seeing significant domestic discord particularly over fiscal positions. And the U.S. just recently witnessed a significant loss of support for the Republican Party in power, paving the way for some new and unknown policy tilts in the period ahead as Democrats will rule in the Senate and the House for the next two years.

Composite Global PMIs Lose Breadth but Not Much Strength

Jonathan Basile

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The September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) portrayed optimism for the U.S. labor demand picture as the third quarter came to an end. On the surface, total nonfarm job openings rose 333,000 in September, following August’s 145,000 decline. This left the current level of 7.523 million up 4.9% compared to a year ago. Looking closer in, however, job openings have yet to reattain the April 2026 high (7.585 million), running 2.0% annualized below this point. Large one-month industry gains were notable in Professional & Business Services (106,000) and State and Local Excluding Education (104,000).

Total nonfarm hires did not have the same feel as job openings. Despite rising back-to-back in August (125,000) and September (131,000), the current 5.402 million rate stood 4.7% annualized below the March 2026 high (5.535 million). Granted, the year-over-year trend was up 3.0%, but this didn’t shake hires out of the 4.9-5.6 million range that has been in place since mid-2024. Moreover, one industry – accommodation & food services (up 158,000) – was responsible for more than the entire gain in September nonfarm hires. This questions the sustainability of the rise.

Total nonfarm quits advanced 321,000 to 3.365 million in September, reaching the highest level since March 2025’s 3.456 million. The 12.5% year-over-year rise bucked the prior trend that had seen just three trailing 12-month increases in the previous 48 months. From a technical standpoint, September’s gain was the fifth largest on record, suggesting a high hurdle to improve from the end of the third quarter. Like with hires, accommodation & food services (up 197,000) had a sizable influence, questioning the strength of the aggregate signal. To be sure, September’s quits ran counter to the 173,000-drop in job leavers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Household Survey’s sister quits gauge, that fell to a 16-month low of 10.5% of the total unemployed in September.

Nonfarm layoffs fell in September by 127,000 to 1.641 million. This left the YoY comparison at -9.6% for September. While this reinforced the wider “low fire” narrative, the current level of layoffs remained in the wider 1.6-1.9 million range that has been in place since July 2024. Since bottoming in 2022, nonfarm layoffs have moved in a similar manner to the higher frequency series, weekly continuing claims. JOLTS layoffs are reported with a lag relative to continuing claims. The latter’s sideways movement in September (1.709 million) and October (1.709 million month-to-date average) suggests no further improvement in the near-term pink slip picture.

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The nonfarm hires-separations spread acts as a channel check for the monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment (NFP). The JOLTS report points to mixed results for NFP revisions in this Friday’s U.S. Employment report. The hires-separations spread in August was revised down to 96,000 from the previous 122,000; the -26,000 difference translates to the direction of the NFP revision. For September, the hires-separations spread came in at 83,000 versus the 29,000 initial NFP gain for that month, implying a +54,000 adjustment. Taken together, the net two-month revision would be +28,000.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Large industry gains drove September increases in job openings and hires.
- Quits jump ran counter to alternative job leavers.
- Hires-Separations point to mixed nonfarm payroll revisions.

U.S. JOLTS: Labor Demand Improved in September

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total factory orders rose a more-than-expected 1.8% m/m in September, the third straight monthly rise, after a 0.3% increase in August, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 1.2% m/m September increase. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 10.5% in September, the highest since April, from 8.8% in August (+3.6% in September 2025), while remaining far below the April 2021 peak of 39.6%. Factory orders excluding defense grew 2.0% (10.8% y/y) in September following a 0.4% gain in August, and factory orders excluding the transportation sector climbed 1.3% (11.1% y/y) after a 0.4% rise; both posted the third consecutive m/m increase.

Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts surged 28.3% in September after rises of 0.3% in August and 12.0% in July. Orders for defense aircraft & parts rose 5.8% (-30.7% y/y) following a 2.3% August increase and a 13.0% July drop, while orders for ships & boats fell 9.9% after a 0.7% August decline and a 6.4% July gain.

Durable goods orders advanced 1.9% (10.0% y/y) in September after a 0.1% uptick in August (in line with +1.8% m/m in the advance report on October 27), marking the fourth successive m/m increase and the sixth in seven months. The September m/m gain was led by a 4.6% rebound (8.0% y/y) in transportation equipment, followed by increases of 1.5% (16.3% y/y) in machinery, 0.8% (16.7% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.5% (8.6% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.4% (20.3% y/y) in primary metals. In contrast, durable goods orders for electrical equipment, appliances & components (-0.3%; +4.8% y/y) and furniture & related products (-0.3%; +1.3% y/y) declined m/m in September.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, rose 1.8% (11.0% y/y) in September, the third straight m/m gain and the ninth in 10 months, after a 0.5% rise in August. The September m/m increase was driven by a 5.2% jump (39.7% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, followed by gains of 2.0% (10.4% y/y) in chemical products, 1.3% (2.4% y/y) in beverage & tobacco products, and 0.2% (1.5% y/y) in food products. To the downside, nondurable goods shipments for apparel (-1.9%; +6.9% y/y), leather & allied products (-1.2%; +7.0% y/y), textile mills (-0.9%; -2.8% y/y), paper products (-0.2%; +2.7% y/y), and plastics & rubber products (-0.2%; +3.3% y/y) fell m/m in September. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments for printing (+0.3% y/y) and textile products (-0.1% y/y) were virtually unchanged m/m following August’s declines.

Total shipments strengthened 1.3% (10.2% y/y) in September, the third consecutive m/m rise and the ninth in 10 months, after a 0.1% uptick in August. Excluding transportation, shipments grew 1.3% (10.3% y/y), the 10th m/m gain in 11 months, on top of a 0.5% August increase. Shipments of durable goods industries rebounded 0.9% (9.4% y/y), up for the ninth time in 10 months, reversing a 0.2% August decline. This reflected m/m gains in almost all durable goods shipments categories, led by a 1.6% advance (13.6% y/y) in machinery, followed by increases of 1.5% (9.8% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.4% (9.7% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.6% (7.9% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods, 0.4% (17.8% y/y) in primary metals, 0.3% (7.5% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.1% (2.2% y/y) in wood products. In contrast, durable goods shipments for nonmetallic mineral products (-0.5%; +1.8% y/y) and furniture & related products (-0.4%; +1.1% y/y) fell m/m in September, while those for electrical equipment, appliances & components were essentially unchanged m/m (+5.9% y/y) following seven successive m/m rises.

Unfilled orders rose 0.9% (9.0% y/y) in September, up for the 14th month running, after rising 0.6% in August, July, and June. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders climbed 0.8% (7.8% y/y), also up for the 14th straight month, on top of a 0.9% August rise. Backlogs of durable goods grew 0.9% (9.0% y/y) in September, with m/m gains across categories, led by increases of 2.0% (11.3% y/y) in primary metals, 1.0% (8.3% y/y) in computers & electronic products, and 0.9% (9.7% y/y) in transportation equipment.

Inventories were up 0.4% (3.1% y/y) in September, the 11th consecutive m/m gain, after a 0.5% rise in August. Excluding transportation, inventories rose 0.4% (2.9% y/y), up for the eighth successive month, following a 0.5% August increase. Durable goods inventories grew 0.3% (3.5% y/y) in September, the 12th straight m/m gain, after climbing 0.5% in August, while nondurable goods inventories rose 0.5% (2.5% y/y), the seventh m/m increase in eight months, after rising at the same pace in August.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Factory orders +1.8% (+10.5% y/y) in Sept., third straight m/m rise; 17.6% above the Jan. ’24 low.
- Durable goods orders +1.9%, fourth consecutive m/m increase; nondurable goods orders +1.8% and shipments +1.3%, ninth m/m gains in 10 mths.
- Transportation orders +4.6%, led by a 28.3% jump in nondefense aircraft orders.
- Unfilled orders +0.9%, up for the 14th month running.
- Inventories +0.4%, 11th successive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Up More Than Expected in September on Strong Nondefense Aircraft Orders

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The Swiss inflation rate is the envy of every central banker in the G7 and beyond. Yet, Swiss inflation has turned north in October, with the headline HICP rate gaining 0.4% in October, the Swiss domestic headline metric rising by 0.4% on the month, and the Swiss domestic core inflation rate remaining flat at a 0% change on the month.

**Inflation breadth is gaining**
In October, Swiss inflation showed acceleration in 72.7% of the categories, a sharp increase from September when inflation accelerated in only 18.2% of the categories. However, in August, inflation month-to-month had accelerated in 81.8% of the categories.

**Pressure is evident in all measures**
Switzerland is dealing with real inflation pressures. The 12-month inflation rate has hit a recent high at 1.6%, still an enviably low pace on the HICP measure. The Swiss domestic headline inflation rate is at 1.5%, while the Swiss core rate continues to be mild at a 0.5% increase over 12 months.

**Acceleration is also real**
Turning to the sequential numbers, the HICP inflation rate moves up from 1.6% over 12 months to a 2.1% annual rate over six months to a 3.6% annual rate over three months, a clear pattern of acceleration. The Swiss domestic headline inflation rate is at 1.5% over 12 months, moves up to 1.9% over six months, and elevates to a 3.9% annual rate over three months. The Swiss core inflation rate, which is only 0.5% over 12 months, rises to 0.8% over six months and to 1% over three months, all expressed at annual rates.

**Controlling for administered prices**
A lot of prices in Switzerland face administrative conditions, and there is a separate index for prices excluding administered prices. However, those also show inflation is moving up in October. The index excluding administered prices rose by 0.2% in October after rising 0.1% in September. The sequential move in the index excluding administered prices is up by 0.9% over 12 months; it’s up to a 1.3% annual rate over six months and to 1.6% at an annual rate over three months.

**Broad acceleration identified by diffusion gauges**
Looking at the detailed Swiss categories, inflation accelerates in 81.8% of the categories over three months compared to six months, and in 54.5% of the categories over six months compared to 12 months. Then, 72.7% of the categories over 12 months show acceleration compared to the pace of 12 months ago. Inflation, on all these horizons, clearly is accelerating in more categories than it is decelerating. The tendency for acceleration appears to be moving higher based on the three-month diffusion reading of 81.8%.

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**Monetary policy remains on hold**
Despite the rising pressures and a rising inflation rate, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has kept policy steady, with the policy rate unchanged at 0% at its last meeting in late September. The SNB recognizes that markets have moved interest rates up and that there's a focus on events in the Middle East. But thus far, it has chosen to keep interest rates at its unchanged low levels. At the time of the last meeting, there had been an increase in market rates and some deterioration in the Swiss franc exchange rate in some sense offsetting one another. The bank's policy deliberations noted that inflation expectations remained well anchored.

The next monetary policy meeting for Switzerland will come on December 10. Switzerland has been the clear inflation success globally since COVID, the war, oil, and other supply shocks have struck. While it clearly is experiencing some inflation transmission from the global economy, and while some of that has even crept into its core rate, the core remains quite stable and low.

Switzerland

Even Swiss Inflation Heads North

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The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a higher-than-expected 55.5 in October from 54.5 in September and 54.6 in August, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management. The October reading, above the 50 expansion-contraction threshold, indicated the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the 10th consecutive month and at the fastest pace since July. A reading of 54.7 for October had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest manufacturing PMI was above a contractionary 48.8 in October 2025 and a low of 47.0 in October 2024, while remaining below a peak of 63.8 in March 2021.

The production index advanced to 59.0 in October from 56.7 in September, indicating production expanded for the 12th straight month and at the highest level since November 2021. The index was above a low of 44.8 in April 2025 but below a peak of 66.5 in March 2021. In October, 27.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while 11.5% reported lower production. The new orders index edged up to 55.5 in October from 55.3 in September, signaling new orders grew for the 10th successive month and at the fastest rate since July. The index remained well above a low of 41.8 in January 2023 but below a high of 67.0 in May 2021. In October, 24.2% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 16.9% reported declines. The inventories index rebounded to 51.4 in October from 48.6 in September, showing the fourth expansion in five months and matching the highest level since June. The index was below a high of 52.7 in March 2025 but above a low of 43.8 in October 2024. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index ticked up to 59.1 in October from 59.0 in September, indicating slowing delivery performance for the 11th straight month after faster deliveries in November 2025. In October, 21.2% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while 3.1% reported faster speeds.

On the labor front, the employment index slipped to 52.4 in October from 52.7 in September, showing employment expanded for the fourth consecutive month but at a slower pace, following 33 months of contraction. The index was above a low of 44.1 in November 2025 but below a high of 56.5 in March 2022. In October, 14.4% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 10.8% reported lower hiring.

On the pricing front, the prices paid index declined to a still-elevated 75.2 (NSA) in October from 77.9 in September, indicating raw materials prices rose for 25 months running but at a slower rising pace. The index remained well above a low of 39.4 in December 2022 but below a high of 87.1 in March 2022 and a peak of 92.1 in June 2021. In October, 53.1% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while only 2.8% reported price declines.

In other ISM series not included in the composite index, the new export orders index rebounded to 51.2 in October from 50.9 in September, indicating new export orders grew for the fourth successive month and the fifth in six months. The index was up from a low of 40.1 in May 2025 but down from a peak of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index rose to 52.9 in October from 51.0 in September, suggesting imports expanded for the ninth consecutive month and at the strongest rate since July. The index was above a low of 39.9 in May 2025 but below a peak of 61.0 in June 2021. The order backlog index slid to 54.6 (NSA) in October from 56.4 in September, showing backlog levels grew for the 10th straight month but at a slower pace. The index was well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023 but below a peak of 70.6 in May 2021.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- ISM Mfg. PMI up to 55.5 in Oct.; 10th straight month of expansion.
- Production (59.0) highest since Nov. ’21; expanding for the 12th consecutive mth.
- New orders (55.5) highest since July; 10th successive mth. above 50.
- Employment (52.4) expanding for the fourth straight mth., albeit at a slower rate.
- Prices Index (75.2) down modestly, still indicating prices rising for 25 mths. running.
- Exports (51.2) up and imports (52.9) at a three-month high; both expanding.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at a Three-Month High in October; Production & New Orders Accelerating; Employment Moderating

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The PMI story for October shows PMIs weakening in 11 of the 18 countries that report manufacturing data. The manufacturing PMIs ticked down only slightly month-to-month, falling in 11 of eighteen reporters in October. The median reading over 12 months, six months, and three months progresses from 51.2 over 12 months to 52.2 over six months to 52.1 over three months. There's really not much change there to base a lot of analysis on; conditions have been substantially the same across this broad group of countries.

Sequentially the PMI data show that over three months 13 of the 18 early reporting countries have lower PMI values with only 5 showing better values. Over six months, six countries show worsening results with 12 showing improvement. Over 12 months, only four countries show worsening results with 14 showing improvement. As we look at the breadth of improvement versus deterioration from 12 months to six months to three months, there's a narrowing, a clear narrowing, in terms of the breadth of countries showing conditions getting better compared to those showing conditions getting worse. However, that statement also exists in the same world where the median for the group hasn't changed very much over any of those horizons.

**Understanding this period – is it representative?**
To get a broader perspective, we can look at the rank or queue percentile standings that give us a percentile standing for each of the reporting countries or areas on data back to January 2021, a relatively broad period. However, it's not a time span in which activity was particularly strong. Still, using the EMU Commission readings on the EMU as a benchmark, the average back to 1990 shows the ranking of the current period average assessment has nearly normal average for the shorter period that makes the short period average seem representative in terms of the longer timeline as well. The reading for October is only 3% below the EMU mean on data back to 1990. So, the rankings over this period may also be a reasonable proxy for longer term rankings in the broadest sense.

There was some strength in the recovery and in the immediate post-COVID. And then there was the invasion of Ukraine that really knocked things back down. Subsequently there were U.S. tariffs imposed that created another international kerfuffle, and then the attack by Hamas on Israel, and the subsequent attempt to rein in Iran by the U.S. and Israel with significant knock-on effects that are largely still in place involving the difficulty for oil and other commodities to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz. So, rankings on this timeline are not for a period of robust growth, but then that is not unusual, statistically. Part of that is that our period begins on a post-COVID high with activity having rebounded. The median percentile standing for this group on data back to January 2021 is a 67.2 percentile standing, which places it just barely into the top third of all observations on this timeline. Only three countries log percentile standings in the top 20% of all their observations during this span. They are Japan, Indonesia, and Malaysia, all Asian economies. The weakest readings on the period, at readings of around 25% and lower, include India at a 20.9 percentile standing, Turkey at a 22.4 percentile standing, and Brazil at a very weak 6th percentile standing. The grouping of these weakest economies includes two BRIC economies plus Turkey.

The large economies are doing well compared to their performance over this timeline, with the euro area economies having a 76.1 percentile standing, Germany, in particular, having a 76.1 percentile standing, the U.S. having a 79.1 percentile standing, the U.K. having a 73.1 percentile standing, and Japan having an 80.6 percentile standing. However, in contrast, France, with all of its fiscal trouble, has only a 53.7 percentile standing over the same period. Oil prices are shooting up again as the U.S. midterm elections draw near. There is a creeping rumor mill of commentary that suggests that the U.S. will be increasing hostilities against Iran after the midterm elections. That buzz has markets on edge and oil prices are moving higher again.

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To be sure, the outlook is quite uncertain and the potential for things to go wrong and to get worse is certainly present. Markets are largely undisturbed, perhaps because fiscal policy globally remains supportive and expansive and then, in the U.S., because the tremendous amount of investment in AI is underpinning growth and the buildout of data centers is helping to generate more income and support consumer spending. However, if things go very wrong in global politics, it's unclear that the tech revolution in the United States is going to be enough to support conditions, and that's where the problem breaks out.

Concerns about growth might be greater than what market momentum would seem to suggest. Bond markets are certainly wary about inflation and some of the recent talk about monetary policy has made it clear that central banks may not have as firm of a grip on what inflation is or on how to deal with it, particularly in an era where we're getting repeated supply shocks. Monetary policy is not geared up to deal with supply shocks. That really falls into the realm of fiscal policy, but fiscal policy has its hands tied in many places because it's been so overused.

There is a clear lesson here, but I'm not sure we're going to learn it. Fiscal policy has to be used sparingly. If fiscal policy is not brought back down to normal levels of spending and if it just ratchets up during the business cycle, countries find themselves at an extreme part of the business cycle, as we are now, with high debt-to-GDP ratios and suddenly very worried about what's going to happen to that ratio if growth falls short. Monetary policy has coddled the inflation rate to preserve employment which also has developed, not surprisingly, in an era with so much excess fiscal policy. But doing so allows even more inflation to get out of control and then that might require a much more crushing increase in interest rates which, given the high debt levels, would have an even more crushing impact on the economy. So, what have we learned here? Anything?

Monetary policy has played the same game that fiscal policy has. It has been inattentive to the underlying inflation pace in the U.S., in particular. Inflation has overshot its target for five and a half years. Inflation in other countries has been too high for too long as well, now with another surge of inflation coming in the guise of another supply shock. Central banks aren't even sure what they're supposed to do with supply-shock inflation. In some quarters, economists think they should do very little, except that inflation is already excessive; a central bank that doesn't do anything to an inflation rate that accelerates when it's already over target is going to have huge credibility problems.

While these issues may seem mundane at the moment, the debt-to-GDP ratio is not exactly the stuff of headlines, but maybe it should be. What if it puts us in an era of fiscal dominance and tries to subvert monetary policy? We could wind up in a situation that is less like the Great Inflation of the 1970s and more like the downturn of the Great Depression. You can't dig yourself out of depression if you've already racked up too much debt and if monetary policy is hamstrung because the inflation rate is too high. We've kicked the can far too hard, and far too far, down the road. That does not go on forever. We're beginning to see the cul-de-sac at the end, and we don't have any plans for what to do when we get there.

S&P MFG PMIs Show Modest Global Slowing

Michael J. Moran

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Nonfarm payrolls rose 165K in October, marking one of the best readings of the past few years and easily beating the expected increase of 65K. Moreover, the results in August and September were revised upward by a combined total of 84K. The new figures left the six-month average at 82K, a far better performance than the average monthly increase of only 10K in all of 2025.

Several sectors stood out on the strong side of job growth. Employment in the business-service category jumped 70K, the strongest showing since mid-2022, when the economy was still experiencing the post-Covid boom. In addition, business services contributed importantly to the upward revisions in August and September (an additional 52K jobs). Manufacturing industries are showing signs of life, as they posted their fifth consecutive monthly gain (up 19K) and added 10K to the revisions total. The health-care sector, a reliable area for job growth, had posted below-average results in the prior five months, but the gain of 55K in October brought it close to its long-run average.

The headline unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%, a reading comfortably within the range of 4.0-4.5% seen in the past two years (although above readings in the neighborhood of 3.5% in the latter part of 2022 and the early months of 2023). It was a “strong” drop in unemployment in the sense that job growth as measured by the household survey exceeded the increase in the size of the labor force (463K versus 421K). October marked the third consecutive month of strong gains for employment and the labor force in the household survey, ending a string of eight months of generally negative results.

Although the headline unemployment rate eased in October, the broad unemployment rate (the so-called U-6 measure) rose 0.3 percentage point to 7.9%. This measure includes individuals working part-time involuntarily and individuals who would like a job and have searched for employment in the past 12 months but have not looked in the past four weeks. Both of these metrics rose in October, contributing to the increase in broad unemployment. The jump in the U-6 measure reversed a good portion of the noticeable improvement since late last year.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in October, matching the firmest increase of the year thus far. The latest results left the year-over-year change at 3.1%, about equal to the readings in the prior two months, suggesting that the downward trend in wage growth may be starting to stabilize.

The surge in energy prices this year has pushed CPI inflation above the annual increase in average hourly earnings, leaving a drop in aggregate real wage income. However, the financial position of the typical wage earner is difficult to assess because the recent period of negative real wage growth followed several years of real gains, which followed sharp real declines during the inflation burst in 2021-22. The ups and downs over the past several years have been largely offsetting, but individuals in total have registered real wage gains. Still, the surge in prices this year has been sharp enough to generate strains for many households. The strains certainly seem to have had an influence on the midterm elections.

The average workweek is an underappreciated element of the monthly employment report; it receives little attention in the financial press and is not scrutinized by financial market participants. However, it is an important indicator. The current workforce comprises more than 159 million individuals, and thus a change of just a few tenths of an hour can have a noticeable effect on production. The average workweek remained at 34.4 hours for the third consecutive month in October, a better showing than readings of 34.2 to 34.3 in the prior two years or so.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Payrolls posted a solid gain; Aug/Sep revised upward.
- Headline unemployment edged lower, although broad unemployment rose.
- Average hourly earnings exceeded expectations.

October Employment Report: Firm in Most Respects

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**CANADA** → Financial → OSFI Leverage Requirements Return

The Leverage Requirements Return (LRR) statistics were added to **CANADA**. The LRR is a regulatory filing that Canadian deposit-taking institutions submit reporting leverage ratios along with the details of how it was calculated. Exposures and Tier 1 capital measures for all banks, domestic banks and foreign bank subsidiaries are available. Quarterly data are sourced from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and start in Q1 2018.

Chart: Canadian banks’ balance sheets have grown by 80% since 2018, with exposures rising from 5.8 trillion CAD to 10.4 trillion CAD. Tier 1 capital has kept pace, leaving the system-wide leverage ratio at 4.4%, almost unchanged from 2018. However, the path has not been smooth. The ratio climbed to nearly 5% by late 2021, then stepped down in 2022 and again in 2023. Looking at the detail, domestic banks account for virtually all of the system (99.6%), so their ratio mirrors the aggregate. Foreign bank subsidiaries have a leverage ratio near 12%, but hold less than half a percent of exposures.

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- Government gross financing statistics for Fiji were added to the **EMERGEPR** database.
- The Leverage Requirements Return (LRR) statistics were added to **CANADA**.
- Insolvency statistics for Australia were added to the **INTDAILY** and **INTWKLY** databases.

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