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[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Larger-than-usual income tax refunds this year are supporting consumer spending

Winnie Tapasanun

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Mortgage applications fell 4.4% w/w (+14.9% y/y) in the week ending May 1 following a 1.6% drop in the week ending April 24 and two consecutive w/w increases, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the second successive w/w decline and the deepest since the March 27 week, easing the index to a three-week-low 285.3. Applications for loans to purchase a house slid 3.7% (+5.1% y/y) in the May 1 week, the first w/w slide since the April 10 week, after a 1.2% rise in the previous week. Applications for loan refinancing dropped 5.0% (+28.8% y/y) in the May 1 week following a 4.4% decline in the April 24 week and two straight w/w gains.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 10bps to 6.64% in the week ending May 1, the highest since the April 3 week, from 6.54% in the week ending April 24; it was above its most recent low of 6.24% in the February 27 week but below a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 9bps to 6.01% in the May 1 week after holding at 5.92% in the previous two weeks; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the week of September 20, 2024 but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans increased 4bps to 6.60% in the May 1 week from 6.56% in the prior two weeks; it was above a recent low of 6.25% in the February 27 week but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. Meanwhile, the rate on a 5-year ARM fell 12bps to 5.90% in the May 1 week, the first w/w decline in three weeks, from 6.02% in the previous week (the highest since the week of August 29, 2025); it was above a low of 5.38% in the February 20 week but below a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 42.0% of total applications in the week ending May 1—the eighth w/w fall in nine weeks and the lowest level since the week of August 1, 2025—after declining to 42.5% in the week ending April 24; it remained below a peak of 61.9% in the January 16 week but above a low of 34.6% in the week of May 23, 2025. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.8% in the May 1 week, the highest since the March 6 week, from 8.3% in the prior week; it was below a peak of 12.9% in the week of September 12, 2025 but above a low of 4.7% in the week of January 3, 2025.

The average size of a mortgage loan, up for the fifth consecutive week, rose 0.7% w/w (2.7% y/y) to $410,900 in the May 1 week, the highest level since the March 6 week, after a 2.0% rise to $407,900 in the April 24 week. The average size of a purchase loan grew 1.5% (5.2% y/y) to $467,300 in the May 1 week—the third w/w gain in four weeks and a record high—following a 1.0% rebound to $460,200 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage fell 1.3% (+2.3% y/y) to $332,800 in the May 1 week, the first w/w fall since the March 27 week, after a 2.3% rise to $337,100 in the previous week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications -3.7% w/w, first decrease in three weeks; refinancing loan applications -5.0% w/w, second consecutive drop.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans up 10bps to 6.64%, a four-week high.
- Average loan size up for the fifth straight week, highest level since the March 6 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Down 4.4% in the May 1 Week, Second Straight Decline

Michael J. Moran

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The number of job openings fell slightly in March (off 0.8%), but the new total remained within the range of recent observations, with the monthly ups and downs tracing the slightest of downward drifts. Most industries posted increases in available jobs, but a sharp drop in the business services sector provided an offset. Interestingly, the business services sector also was active in hiring during March, which might explain the drop in openings. Considering the industry detail, the decline in job postings was not especially troubling.

Although the number of job openings fell in March, the number of unemployed individuals fell by a larger amount (off 332,000; published with the monthly employment report), leaving an improvement in the ratio of openings to unemployed. The new reading of 0.95 still indicates that there is less than one job per unemployed individual, but it is an improvement from 0.91 in February. Recent readings in this ratio are still respectable relative to the long-run historical experience, but they are below observations near 1.2 in the years immediately before the pandemic and well below readings close to 2.0 during the post-pandemic surge.

Businesses have been cautious in hiring in the past year or so, but they became more active in March, with hirings increasing 13.4%. The new level of hirings was the best since early 2024. Retail establishments were active in hiring, and as noted, firms in the business services area also brought on more workers.

Hiring picked up in March, but layoffs increased as well (up 8.9%). The move was sizeable, but it also might be viewed as random volatility, as this series often shifts widely from month-to-month and it remained within its recent range. The latest reading might be an offset to light observations around the turn of the year. The fact that nonfarm payrolls rose sharply in March (up 178,000) also indicates that layoffs in that month were not troubling.

All told, the JOLTs report for March might be viewed as mildly favorable; or at least the decline in openings and the increase in layoffs should not stir concern. A pickup in the number of quits in March (up 4.1%) might suggest that individuals perceive improved prospects in finding a new job. However, the number of quits has waxed and waned in recent months, leaving an ambiguous trend. Certainly, a clear upward trend has not emerged.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

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- Job openings were little changed...
- ...but hirings and layoffs picked up.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS): Mixed Results in March

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New home sales data for March and February were released today to catch up from delays due to the federal government shutdown in October 2025. New single-family home sales rose 7.4% m/m (3.3% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 682,000 units in March—above expectations—following an 8.9% gain to 635,000 in February and a downwardly revised 19.9% drop to 583,000 in January (initially -17.6%, 587,000), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected March sales of 655,000. March marked the second consecutive m/m increase after two straight m/m decline and the highest level since December, remaining 31.4% above the July 2022 low of 519,000. The March m/m sales gain occurred alongside an increase in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.18%, the highest in three months, up from 6.05% in February and 6.11% in January, according to Freddie Mac.

Regionally, March new home sales showed a mixed performance. Sales in the Northeast surged 80.0% (3.8% y/y) to 27,000 in March, the first m/m increase in three months and the largest since January 2024, reversing a 48.3% plunge in February. Sales in the South rose 11.1% (8.1% y/y) to 441,000, the highest level since November, following a 14.7% February advance and two successive m/m declines. In contrast, sales in the Midwest fell 5.0% (+11.8% y/y) to 76,000 after a 6.7% February rise, and sales in the West slid 3.5% (-12.7% y/y) to 138,000 following a 7.5% February gain; both posted the second m/m fall in three months. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 64.7% of total U.S. new home sales.

The median sales price of a new home fell 5.3% (-6.2% y/y) to $387,400 in March—the sixth m/m decrease in seven months and the lowest level since July 2021—after declines of 0.9% to $409,000 in February and 3.8% to $412,900 in January. The median sales price was 15.8% below its record high of $460,300 in October 2022. The average sales price of a new home decreased 3.4% (-1.2% y/y) to $503,100, the lowest level since July 2025, following a 1.7% February increase to $521,000 and a 5.2% January drop to $512,200. The average price was 7.0% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market slid 0.4% (-4.6% y/y) to 481,000 in March, the first m/m slide since December, after rises of 1.3% to 483,000 in February and 0.2% to 477,000 in January. The latest figure was 12.9% above a low of 426,000 in July 2023. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale fell to 8.5 months in March, a three-month low, from 9.1 months in February and 9.8 months in January. The latest reading, while above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023, remained below a high of 10.6 months in July 2022.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market increased to 3.6 months in March, the highest since August 2021, from 3.3 months in February and 3.0 months in January. The latest number was above its record low of 1.5 months in September and October 2022 but well below a peak of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales +7.4% m/m (+3.3% y/y) to 682,000 in Mar., a 3-month high; +8.9% m/m (-1.1% y/y) to 635,000 in Feb.
- Sales m/m up in the Northeast and South, down in the Midwest and West; sales y/y up in all regions except the West (-12.7% y/y).
- Median sales price -5.3% m/m to $387,400, lowest since Jul. ’21; avg. price -3.4% m/m to $503,100, lowest since Jul. ’25.
- Months' supply: 8.5 mths. in Mar., a 3-month low; 9.1 mths. in Feb.

U.S. New Home Sales Gain in March and February After Two Monthly Declines

Sandy Batten

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) widened to $60.3 billion in March from a revised $57.8 billion February (previously -57.3 billion), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a deficit of $60.1 billion. The goods deficit increased to $88.7 billion in March from $84.6 billion in February while the services surplus widened $28.4 billion from a downwardly revised $26.8 in February (previously +$27.3 billion).

The real (inflation-adjusted) trade deficit in goods widened to $90.8 billion (2017$) in March from $85.2 billion in February. For all of the first quarter, the real goods deficit widened to $258.9 billion from $245.8 billion in last year’s fourth quarter. Accordingly, as reported last week, the widening real trade deficit subtracted 1.3%-points from overall GDP growth in Q1.

Exports of goods and services increased 2.0% m/m (13.3% y/y) in March following monthly gains of 4.1% in February and 5.6% in January. For all of Q1, exports were up 6.8% q/q, the largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022. Goods exports (Census basis) increased 3.0% m/m in March, led by a 6.1% m/m increase in exports of industrial supplies, which included a 33.5% monthly jump in exports of petroleum and petroleum products. This was the largest monthly increase in petroleum exports since June 2008 and reflected meaningful gains in both volume and prices. The $6.9 billion increase in exports of petroleum and petroleum products more than accounted for the $6.3 billion increase in total goods exports in March. However, apart from a 7.5% m/m decline in exports of nonfood consumer goods ex autos, exports of all of the other major sectors increased in March. Service exports edged down 0.3% m/m (+8.2% y/y) in March following a 0.8% m/m increase in February and their first monthly decline in four months. Exports of transport services rebounded, rising 2.7% m/m in March after a 1.5% monthly decline in February. By contrast, travel exports slumped 5.8% m/m in March, the second decline in the past three months.

Imports of goods and services increased 2.3% m/m in March (-9.0% y/y) on top of a 4.4% monthly gain in February. The annual comparison is distorted by an outsized jump in imports last March (particularly of nonmonetary gold) ahead of expected tariff increases. Good imports (Census basis) increase 3.5% m/m in March following a 5.1% monthly rise in February. While the March increase was relatively widespread, it was led by a 11.2% m/m jump in imports of autos, parts and engines (accounting for more than a third of the monthly. increase in total goods imports). Imports of nonfood consumer goods ex auto rose 4.4% m/m in March after a 4.2% m/m gain in February. Imports of industrial supplies rose 3.9% m/m in March on top of a 6.1% m/m jump in February. Service imports fell 2.3% m/m in March, their first monthly decline in four months. Imports of intellectual property plummeted 19.6% m/m in March, their largest monthly decline since March 2022. Travel services imports fell 2.4% m/m, their second decline in the past three months.

By country, the goods trade deficit with China widened slightly to $14.0 billion in March from $13.1 billion in February. Exports to China jumped 23.5% m/m while imports from China rose 13.5% m/m. The trade deficit with the European Union widened markedly to $9.2 billion March from $5.1 billion in February, reflecting a 0.8% m/m fall in exports and a 9.0% m/m jump in imports. The trade deficit with Japan narrowed to $4.1 billion in March, the smallest since last September, from $4.7 billion in February.

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The deficit in goods and services widened to $60.3 billion in March from $57.8 billion in February,
- Exports rose 2.0% m/m, led by a 33% monthly jump in petroleum exports.
- Imports increased 2.3% m/m, led by an 11.2% m/m jump in auto imports.
- The goods deficit widened to $88.7 billion while the services surplus widened to $28.4 billion.

U.S. Trade Deficit Widened in March

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we take another pulse on recent key developments relating to, and affecting, Asia. The week has once again begun on a hopeful note, following reports that the US will guide neutral vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, signalling a partial easing of trade flows through the waterway. Asian markets, including South Korea and Taiwan, were further buoyed by persistent AI-related optimism (chart 1). A full tally of central bank decisions since February highlights a growing divergence across the region. While most central banks have opted to hold back on tightening, a subset has already moved to raise policy rates in response to inflation pressures stemming from higher oil prices (chart 2). A cross-country comparison of consumer inflation reinforces this divergence, with more pronounced CPI increases in economies such as Australia and the Philippines, where central banks have recently hiked rates (chart 3).

In the meantime, amid the absence of oil flows through the Strait, many Asian importers have begun sourcing supplies from alternative producers, including the United States (chart 4). At the same time, major oil exporters affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have been forced to scale back crude production significantly due to storage constraints (chart 5). Looking ahead, attention turns to a three-pronged week featuring regional PMIs, additional central bank decisions (chart 6), and further Q1 GDP releases.

**Early-week optimism**
Asian markets began the week on an optimistic footing, supported by developments in the Middle East. Reports that the US will guide neutral vessels through the Strait of Hormuz have lifted expectations of a partial resumption in trade flows through what has been a severely constrained passage. That said, while any reopening of oil and broader shipping routes is a key factor in easing the supply shock stemming from the conflict, the situation remains far from resolved. Uncertainty persists over both the scale and durability of any recovery in shipping activity. Elevated tensions between the US and Iran—underscored by exchanges of fire as US forces escorted vessels through the waterway on Monday—continue to leave the outlook vulnerable to renewed disruption. Nonetheless, ongoing AI-related optimism has continued to underpin equity markets. Asia stands to benefit disproportionately given its central role in the global AI supply chain, helping keep equity prices elevated across key markets such as South Korea and Taiwan (chart 1).

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**Central bank decisions, inflation**
Given that the Middle East conflict has already persisted for some time, chart 2 shows the first full tally of Asia’s policy rate decisions in April. Most central banks opted to hold their policy rates steady, signalling a broadly wait-and-see approach despite still-elevated and persistent inflation risks. In contrast, a smaller group, including Australia and the Philippines, moved to raise rates, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns. It should be noted, however, that Australia had already been tightening its policy prior to the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. While the majority of central banks have so far refrained from further tightening, this stance should not be assumed to persist. This is particularly true if inflation were to accelerate further, or more critically, if inflation expectations begin to show sustained signs of becoming unanchored. Such dynamics could trigger feedback loops that become increasingly difficult to contain if left unaddressed. 

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As such, while the broad policy balance currently leans toward avoiding unnecessary damage to growth while monitoring inflation risks, that equilibrium may soon be forced to shift toward more decisive action if inflation pressures begin to accelerate. Turning to inflation, chart 3 presents a comparison of March CPI inflation readings against February’s, the latter of which preceded the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. The data again highlights recent central bank actions, particularly in Australia and the Philippines, where CPI inflation has picked up, helping to explain the rationale behind their rate hikes. In Vietnam’s case, CPI inflation has also accelerated in recent months. However, the central bank has thus far opted for a more growth-supportive stance. It remains to be seen how long this position can be sustained if inflation continues to build.

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**Pivotal moves**
Amid the ongoing constraints in the Strait of Hormuz, Asian economies have already moved to secure oil supplies from alternative sources. In Japan’s case, imports have increasingly shifted toward suppliers such as the US, reflecting the disruption to traditional flows that are heavily reliant on transit through the Strait. South Korea has similarly diversified its sourcing to supplement its energy needs. A comparable trend can be observed across other Asian economies, with oil imports gradually being redirected toward exporters that can deliver shipments without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. While these adjustments represent a pragmatic response to the current supply shock, it remains unclear whether the resulting shifts in market share for alternative suppliers are merely temporary. The crisis has, in any case, reinforced a broader reassessment of energy security and supply chain diversification strategies across the region.

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Meanwhile, major oil producers affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE, have been forced to scale back crude oil production significantly (chart 5). With exports through the Strait effectively constrained, output has increasingly had to be diverted into storage facilities. The UAE’s recent announcement of its departure from OPEC adds an additional layer of uncertainty to the regional production landscape. The key constraint lies in limited storage capacity. Once storage sites approach saturation, additional production cannot be efficiently absorbed, effectively forcing output cuts in the absence of alternative export routes. This bottleneck explains the recent adjustments in production levels across affected producers. Looking ahead, elevated inventory levels could also complicate a normalization of production flows should the Strait conclusively reopen. Producers would likely need to draw down existing stockpiles before meaningfully ramping up output again. In addition, a sufficient return of tanker capacity would be required to facilitate the shipment of accumulated inventories back into global markets.

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**Asia this week**
It is a three-pronged week in Asia, with regional PMIs, a pair of central bank decisions, and several Q1 GDP releases due. Beyond the region’s manufacturing PMIs released earlier this week, China’s unofficial April services PMI will also be closely watched, helping to complete the month’s activity picture. On the monetary policy front, attention will be on decisions from Australia and Malaysia. Australia, as widely expected, delivered a third consecutive rate hike in response to persistent inflation risks. Malaysia, who is scheduled to announce its decision on Thursday, is seen keeping its policy rate on hold. In addition, Q1 GDP readings from the Philippines are due over the course of the week. Meanwhile, in markets, Japan-focused attention is likely to remain on the yen amid ongoing talk about authorities’ intervention in response to recent weakness.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Everybody’s Changing

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Total factory orders rose a stronger-than-expected 1.5% m/m in March following a 0.3% increase in February and a flat reading in January, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.5% m/m March increase. The year-on-year growth rate decelerated to 2.1% in March, the lowest since July 2025, from 4.0% in February (+4.9% in March 2025), remaining far below the April 2021 peak of 39.6%. Notably, orders for ships & boats surged 30.9% m/m in March after a 12.8% decrease in February and an 8.1% rise in January, and orders for defense aircraft & parts jumped 17.8% following a 0.6% February increase and a 26.9% January slump, while orders for nondefense aircraft & parts dropped 21.1% on top of a 33.3% February plunge and a 1.7% January decline. Factory orders excluding defense climbed 0.9% (0.8% y/y), the fourth m/m gain in five months, following a 0.3% February increase. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector rose 1.6% (5.1% y/y), the fifth straight m/m rise, after a 1.6% February gain.

Durable goods orders rose 0.8% (0.9% y/y) in March after a 1.2% decline in February (matching +0.8% m/m in the advance report on April 29), marking the first m/m gain since November. The March m/m orders rise reflected a 0.8% rebound (-10.4% y/y) in transportation equipment—the first m/m increase in four months—following a 5.6% February drop, alongside m/m gains of 3.6% (15.0% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.9% (10.5% y/y) in machinery, 0.8% (6.3% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, and 0.5% (10.3% y/y) in primary metals. Durable goods orders for furniture & related products, however, slipped 0.2% (+0.8% y/y) in March, the fourth consecutive m/m decline, after a 1.4% drop in February. Meanwhile, orders for fabricated metal products were virtually unchanged (+6.9% y/y) following 1.1% February increase.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, advanced 2.1% (3.4% y/y) in March, the biggest of four successive m/m gains, after a 1.9% rise in February. The March m/m increase was led by a 9.9% jump (8.5% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, followed by gains of 1.1% (4.9% y/y) in chemical products, 0.6% (4.3% y/y) in beverage & tobacco products, 0.6% (1.9% y/y) in plastics & rubber products, and 0.2% (-1.6% y/y) in textile products. To the downside, the following nondurable goods shipments fell m/m in March: leather & allied products (-2.4%; -7.2% y/y), textile mills (-1.4%; -4.2% y/y), printing (-0.9%; -1.8% y/y), paper products (-0.4%; +0.8% y/y), apparel (-0.2%; +2.7% y/y), and food products (-0.2%; +0.4% y/y).

Total shipments rose 1.4% (5.5% y/y) in March, up for the fourth consecutive month, after increases of 1.7% in February and 0.7% in January. Excluding transportation, shipments grew 1.6% (4.5% y/y), the fifth straight m/m gain, following a 1.7% February rise. Shipments of durable goods industries rose 0.7% (7.7% y/y), the fourth successive m/m increase, after a 1.6% February rise. This reflected m/m gains across nearly all durable goods shipments categories, led by a 2.3% advance (9.7% y/y) in machinery, followed by rises of 0.8% (6.4% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.8% (11.0% y/y) in transportation equipment, 0.5% (6.2% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.5% (3.2% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods, 0.5% (-2.4% y/y) in wood products, 0.2% (4.7% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 0.2% (3.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, and 0.1% (9.6% y/y) in primary metals. In contrast, durable goods shipments for furniture & related products were the only category with a monthly decline in March, dropping 1.2% (+2.3% y/y) following a 1.7% February rebound.

Unfilled orders edged up 0.1% (9.4% y/y) in March, the eighth consecutive m/m increase, following a 0.1% uptick in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y), also up for the eighth straight month, after a 0.3% February rise. Backlogs of durable goods ticked up 0.1% (9.4% y/y) in March, led by gains of 0.9% (1.5% y/y) in computers & electronic products and 0.4% (5.3% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, partially offset by a 0.6% decline (+0.2% y/y) in furniture & related products.

Inventories rose 0.6% (1.3% y/y) in March, the largest of five successive m/m gains, following a 0.1% increase in February. Excluding transportation, inventories grew 0.7% (1.5% y/y) after edging up 0.1% in February. Durable goods inventories rose 0.3% (1.9% y/y) in March after inching up 0.1% in February, while nondurable goods inventories advanced 1.2% (0.3% y/y) following a 0.1% February uptick and declines of 0.3% in January and December.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Factory orders +1.5% m/m (+2.1% y/y) in Mar.; 9.5% above the Jan. ’24 low.
- Durable goods orders +0.8%, first m/m increase since Nov.; nondurable goods orders +2.1%, largest of four straight m/m gains; shipments +1.4%, fourth successive m/m rise.
- Transportation orders +0.8%, driven by m/m surges of 30.9% in ships & boats and 17.8% in defense aircraft orders.
- Computers & electronic products +3.6%, fastest of seven consecutive m/m rises.
- Unfilled orders +0.1%, eighth straight m/m increase.
- Inventories +0.6%, biggest of five consecutive m/m gains.

U.S. Factory Orders Exceed Expectations in March

Robert Brusca

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You may recognize the excerpted headline quote as ‘borrowing’ from U.S. Admiral David Farragut. It is a famous quote from a U.S. Civil war battle in which he charged ahead in his ship regardless of the risk. This month the global manufacturing PMIs themselves are charging ahead regardless of the rise of inflation, the war in Ukraine, the war in Iran, the closure or impedance in the Strait of Hormuz, and the mucking up of oil and nonoil supply lines. Full speed ahead! 

**Trend...**
The chart shows an ongoing recovery in manufacturing. It also shows that conditions are only ‘better’ and not ‘strong.’ Yet when we rank these individual PMIs against their historic results back to January 2022, the median rank across these 18 reporters is 90.8%, signaling that they have been higher less than 10% of the time back to 2022. Of course, 2022-2023 represented low points for manufacturing after COVID. There was a strong recovery from COVID and then the sucker-punch from the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Nonetheless, on that timeline, recovery is still in progress and—so far—not even the war in the Middle East and other geopolitical turmoil, including a real donnybrook within NATO, has sidetracked it, despite the impact on oil prices. That may not last, but it is the current situation.

**A test for central banks**
With inflation rising, central banks are being put to the test. They failed the post-COVID test and waited too long to hike rates. We did get recovery but inflation, too. Will they do that again? Or will they hike rates sooner? Will they try not to make the same mistake and make, instead, a new mistake by getting too tight too soon? Markets simply do not know. But in the U.S. and U.K., there are five years of missing monetary inflation targets, and in other key countries the inflation targets also have been broadly missed, even if headline inflation recently had dipped into the target range in the last few months or so. Central banks are facing a challenge after their last challenge was not met with success and after a relatively long period—a solid legacy—of missing on the promises they made to the public on inflation.

**Solid PMI trends**: The sequential, as well as the current, monthly data show how widespread change has been tilted in a positive direction. While conditions are broadly better, the current month’s median reading is only at a PMI value of 52.4. So, manufacturing conditions are only slightly above breakeven (a PMI of 50), but they have been weak for so long that this is an exceptionally strong reading compared to the last four and half years of results.

**Some examples**: The weak manufacturing readings on the month by ranking are for Turkey, Russia, India, and Indonesia. However, these are own-PMI comparisons, and India is one of the strongest readings in April on a cross-section basis (compared to other countries in April, rather than to its own history) having the third strongest manufacturing reading in April. Malaysia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan each have the strongest readings (or nearly so) since January 2022; as a result, Taiwan and Japan also rank one and two among 19 reporter readings in April. South Korea ranks sixth. But Malaysia has been so weak; it still ranks only 11th despite a 99.2% high-low standing.

**In Sum**: The bottom line is that recovery has not been derailed—yet. But this is only an April report. Given time, this rebound could be untracked. It is only a rebound from the lows. So, the expansion is still at risk, even with global labor markets still tight based on unemployment readings. Economic growth is a slippery slope; the trend is only your friend until it turns on you.

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Global MFG PMIs Sweep Higher: Damn the Torpedoes!

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The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI held at a lower-than-expected 52.7 in April and March following a 0.2-point easing to 52.4 in February, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed. The April reading, above the 50 expansion-contraction dividing line, indicated the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the fourth successive month. A reading of 53.0 for April had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The April manufacturing PMI, while above a contraction-level 48.8 in April 2025 and a low of 47.0 in October 2024, remained below a peak of 63.8 in March 2021.

The production index slipped to 53.4 in April from 55.1 in March, indicating production expanded for the sixth consecutive month but at the slowest pace since December. The index was above its recent low of 44.8 in April 2025 but below a peak of 66.5 in March 2021. In April, 28.3% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while 13.0% reported lower production. The new orders index rebounded to 54.1 in April from 53.5 in March, signaling new orders grew for the fourth straight month following four successive months of contraction. The index remained well above a low of 41.8 in January 2023. In April, an increased 31.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 15.2% reported declines. The inventories index increased to 49.0 in April from 47.1 in March, marking the 12th straight month of contraction. The index was below its recent high of 52.7 in March 2025 but above a low of 43.8 in October 2024. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index rose to 60.6 in April from 58.9 in March, indicating slower delivery performance for the fifth consecutive month after faster deliveries in November. In April, 22.6% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while only 1.5% reported faster speeds.

On the labor front, the employment index slid to 46.4 in April from 48.7 in March, showing employment contracted for the 31st straight month and at the lowest level since December following a brief expansion in September 2023. The index was above its recent low of 44.1 in November 2025 but below a high of 49.7 in January 2025 and a high of 56.5 in March 2022. In April, 17.5% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 20.2% reported less hiring.

On the pricing front, the prices paid index jumped to 84.6 (NSA) in April from 78.3 in March, indicating raw materials prices rose for the 19th consecutive month and at the fastest pace since April 2022. The index remained well above a low of 39.4 in December 2022 but below a high of 87.1 in March 2022 and a peak of 92.1 in June 2021. In April, an increased 70.3% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while only 1.2% reported price declines.

In other ISM series not included in the composite index, the new export orders index fell to 47.9 in April from 49.9 in March, indicating new export orders contracted for the second successive month after expanding in February and January. The index was up from a low of 40.1 in May 2025 but down from its recent high of 52.4 in January 2025 and a high of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index decreased to 50.3 in April from 52.6 in March, suggesting imports expanded at the weakest pace in three months. The index was below its recent high of 54.9 in February but above a low of 39.9 in May 2025. The order backlog index declined to 51.4 (NSA) in April from 54.4 in March, showing backlog levels grew at the slowest pace in four months. The index was well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023 but far below a peak of 70.6 in May 2021.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- ISM Mfg. PMI at 52.7 in Apr. and Mar.; fourth consecutive month of expansion.
- Production (53.4) expands for the sixth straight mth.; new orders (54.1) for the fourth successive mth.
- Employment (46.4) contracts for the 31st straight mth.; at a four-month low.
- Prices Index (84.6) highest since Apr. ’22; prices rising for the 19th consecutive mth.
- Exports (47.9) contract; imports (50.3) still grow but at a three-month low.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Steady in April; New Orders and Production Growing; Employment Contracting

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Nonfarm payrolls rose 115k in April, exceeding an expected gain of 70k. The increase represented the second consecutive advance, ending a nine-month string of up and down shifts. The erratic changes in prior months had left average job growth close to zero, but the new results showed a solid six-month average of 55k.

The soft results in prior months reflected respectable gains in the health-care sector that were largely offset by declines in other areas. However, job growth excluding health care also rose for the second consecutive month, and the six-month average moved into positive territory (although barely so, 1K). The construction industry has done well recently, and employment in wholesale and retail trade has improved as well. Employment in the business-services sector has inched up recently. Employment remained weak in financial services and information (motion pictures, publishing, internet-based services).

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, but when calculated with more precision it showed an increase of almost 0.1 percentage point (4.337% versus 4.258% in March). The steady reading was soft in that both the labor force and employment as measured by the household survey declined, with the drop in employment exceeding the shift in the size of the labor force (-226K and -92k, respectively). The broad unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage point to 8.2%, but it remained below the recent high of 8.7% in November of last year. A jump in the number of individuals working part time for economic reasons dominated a drop in the number of individuals marginally attached to the labor force (those that would like a job but are not actively searching).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published an increase of 0.2% in average hourly earnings, but the change almost rounded down to 0.1% (0.161%). Most monthly changes in the past year have been in a range of 0.2% to 0.4%, with a slight downward drift developing recently. The year-over-year change in April totaled 3.6% versus readings close to 4.0% in most of 2025.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Nonfarm payrolls advance for the second consecutive month.
- Unemployment rate steady; average hourly earnings tame.

April Employment: Signs of Improvement

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