Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Michael J. Moran

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The Producer Price Index rose 0.5% in December, exceeding both the expected increase of 0.2% and the average advance of 0.3% in the prior six months. However, a surge of 0.7% in the service category accounted for much of the increase. The service component often moves erratically, and thus the sizeable increase in the headline index is not especially troubling. Within services, trade services are especially volatile, and prices here jumped 1.7% in December. Lower prices of food and energy (-0.3% and -1.4%, respectively) offset some of the pressure in the service area.

Prices of goods excluding food and energy, a grouping that shows less volatility than the food, energy, and service areas, rose 0.4% in December. The increase exceeded the average of 0.3% in the prior six months, but goods destined for export pushed the measure higher, jumping 0.7%. Goods intended for the domestic market (consumers, businesses, governments) saw price increases close to the recent average of 0.3%.

While the latest report on producer prices showed several notable shifts, underlying trends were little changed. The year-over-year increase in final-demand prices (the headline measure in this report) totaled 3.0% in December, a reading comfortably within the range evident since mid-2024 (chart, above left). The year-over-year increases in the goods and services categories changed only marginally: slightly higher for services and a tad lower for goods (chart, above right).

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The monthly report on the PPI also includes prices on intermediate goods and services, which might provide insight into final prices in coming months. The service category has been moving along a steady path, with year-over-year changes running in a range of approximately 1.5% to 2.5%. Prices of intermediate goods have been trending upward, moving from deflation during much of 2023-24 to an average year-over-year increase of approximately 3.5% in the past four months.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

- Prices of food and energy declined in December, but service prices surged.
- Prices of goods excluding food and energy rose more than the recent average, but the change did little damage to the underlying trend.

December PPI: Marked Shifts in Volatile Areas; Underlying Trends Steady

Robert Brusca

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GDP in the European Monetary Union rose by 1.3% at an annual rate quarter-to-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is a step up from 1.1% in the third quarter and from 0.6% in the second quarter. Year-over-year growth in the monetary union slowed to 1.3% in the fourth quarter compared to 1.4% in the third quarter and 1.5% in the second quarter; however, GDP growth is holding up well, and the quarterly profile suggests that the current growth rate is solid.

**Early-stage GDP reporters**
At this early stage, only seven countries have reported publicly GDP figures, and we see them in the table. Among them, the strongest growth rate in the fourth quarter is from Portugal at 3.2%, followed by Spain at 3.1%, and then the Netherlands at 2.1%; the weakest growth rate reported in the table is from France at 0.7% at an annual rate in Q4.

**Quarterly acceleration/deceleration**
In the fourth quarter with GDP measured quarter to quarter, GDP has accelerated in the monetary union from 1.1% in Q3 to 1.3% in Q4. At the country level, there are accelerations in Germany, Italy, Portugal, and Spain; the Netherlands logs the same growth rate in Q3 as in Q4 at 2.1%. Belgium and France log slowdowns, with Belgian growth posting a 0.8% annual rate in Q4 compared to 1.0% in Q3 and with France at 0.7% in Q4 compared to 2.1% in Q3.

**Year-on-year trends**
Year-over-year trends are different from this, however. On a year-over-year basis, the monetary union shows slightly slower growth at 1.3% in Q4 compared to 1.4% in Q3. Accelerating comparisons show Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands all on rising growth rate profiles for year-on-year growth. Growth slows quarter-to-quarter in Portugal and in Spain.

**Growth in historic context**
The year-on-year growth rate overall ranked on data back to 1997 shows only Italy and Portugal with rates of growth above their respective medians for the period (back to 1997). Italy's growth rate has a 55.4 percentile standing, the same as for Portugal. Spain’s 48.9 percentile standing places its growth rate near its median, while the other countries produce growth rates largely in the mid-30th to low 40th percentiles for this period.

**Large economy/small economy**
Comparing growth rates for the largest four economies to the rest of the monetary union, we have the large economies growing stronger quarter-to-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2025 at 1.4% compared to 1.2%; this is a reversal of the pattern that we saw in Q3 and Q2. In fact, the year over year growth rates show the four largest economies growing slower than the rest of the monetary union, for the last four quarters. In the fourth quarter, they have a 40.2 percentile standing on growth rates back to 1997 while the rest of the monetary union comes in very close to its median growth rate with a percentile standing at 48.9%. It doesn't appear that any particular part of the monetary union is doing especially well, but the smaller countries appear to be closer to normal than the larger countries where growth remains more significantly challenged than it has been over the last 30 years.

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Europe

EMU GDP Steps Up on the Quarter

Andrew Cates

**Global Growth Conditions**
Flash PMI readings for January 2026 point to a global growth backdrop that remains uneven, with notable differences across economies in both activity levels and recent momentum. Several economies, including the UK, Australia and Japan, are firmly in expansionary territory above the 50 threshold and have also recorded solid positive three-month gains, suggesting some strengthening in activity entering the new year. The euro area and Germany are also comfortably above 50, indicating ongoing expansion, although recent momentum has been more subdued compared with some peers. France stands out as the main laggard, with the composite PMI still below the expansion threshold despite an improvement over the past three months. The US, meanwhile, has seen some softening in recent momentum even as activity remains in expansionary territory. India continues to post the strongest headline reading, though with little additional acceleration. Overall, the flash PMI data continue to portray a global economy that is expanding, but in a differentiated and uneven fashion rather than through a synchronised upswing.

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**The US dollar**
Alongside the uneven global growth signals, financial markets have also begun to reflect a shifting pattern in demand for US assets. The chart below shows a notable depreciation in the broad nominal effective exchange rate of the US dollar through the first half of 2025, followed by a period of relative stabilisation in the second half of the year and a more abrupt weakening at the start of 2026. While the earlier decline likely reflected narrowing growth and interest-rate differentials, the recent sharper move points more clearly to changing capital-flow dynamics and a partial erosion of the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. Although far from a disorderly adjustment, the renewed softness has revived discussion of a broader “sell America” theme, suggesting that geopolitical uncertainty and policy risk may now be playing a larger role in currency markets alongside traditional cyclical drivers.

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**Consumer confidence in the US and Europe**
The recent depreciation in the US dollar has coincided with a marked relative weakness in US consumer confidence compared with other major economies. As the chart illustrates, this week’s data from the Conference Board revealed that US sentiment has fallen well below its long-run average and now sits at notably weaker levels than in both the euro area and the UK (based on normalised readings), where confidence has shown tentative signs of stabilisation. The deterioration in US readings appears less related to financial conditions and arguably more reflective of political uncertainty and a softening in labour-market perceptions.

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**Financial markets and data surprises**
Despite the recent softness in the US dollar and signs of shifting capital flows, global equity markets have remained relatively upbeat, reflecting a still-supportive macro backdrop. As the chart illustrates, periods of stronger global growth surprises have tended to coincide with weaker inflation surprises, a combination that has historically been favourable for risk assets and has again been evident in recent months. This pattern tentatively points to an improving supply-side dynamic, where activity has been outperforming expectations without a corresponding resurgence in price pressures. One possible factor behind this development is the early impact of productivity-enhancing technologies, including artificial intelligence, which may be helping to lift growth while easing inflation constraints at the margin.

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**The US economy and AI**
Hard data released this week also continue to point to robust demand for advanced technology products in the US economy. The latest durable goods orders figures showed further strength in new orders for computers and related products, reinforcing the upward trend evident over the past two years. At the same time, recent trade data highlight a sustained rise in US imports of information and communications equipment, suggesting that domestic investment demand is being complemented by strong inflows of high-tech capital goods. Together, these series underscore the resilience of technology-related spending, consistent with ongoing investment linked to digitalisation, cloud infrastructure and artificial intelligence.

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**Industrial production in Taiwan**
The strength in US technology-related demand is also being echoed upstream in global supply chains, particularly in East Asia. As the chart shows, Taiwan’s industrial production has rebounded sharply over the past year, led by a pronounced acceleration in output of computers, electronic and optical products. Growth in electronic parts and components has likewise strengthened, outpacing the broader industrial sector and underscoring the central role of the semiconductor and advanced electronics cycle in the current upturn. This pickup aligns closely with the robust US orders and import data discussed above, suggesting that strong end-demand for high-tech equipment is translating into rising production across key manufacturing hubs.

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Financial markets have seen renewed gyrations in recent weeks, with a weaker US dollar, higher interest rate volatility and shifting capital flows reviving discussion of a “Sell America” narrative — so far more a marginal rebalancing than a wholesale retreat. The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate unchanged at its latest meeting, as widely expected, but communications around the outlook for future easing were arguably a little more hawkish than anticipated, reinforcing a cautious and increasingly data-dependent policy stance. In our charts this week we begin with January’s flash PMIs, which point to ongoing expansion across most major economies but with clear cross-country divergence in momentum (chart 1). That uneven real-economy picture has been mirrored in FX: the broad trade-weighted dollar depreciated through the first half of 2025, stabilised later in the year, but has now softened more abruptly at the start of 2026—suggesting a shift in risk premia and capital-flow dynamics (chart 2). Consistent with that, consumer confidence has weakened noticeably in the US relative to the euro area and UK, with the deterioration looking more tied to politics and labour-market perceptions (chart 3). Even so, global equity sentiment has remained comparatively upbeat, supported by a still-favourable macro mix in which global growth surprises have tended to run ahead of expectations while inflation surprises have been softer—tentatively consistent with an improving supply-side backdrop that markets increasingly associate with AI (chart 4). Finally, that theme is reinforced by hard activity indicators: US orders and imports of advanced technology products remain strong (chart 5), and Taiwan’s production data show a parallel surge in electronics output upstream (chart 6), pointing to a still-powerful global tech cycle even as broader macro and market narratives become more unsettled.

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Charts of the Week: Weaker Dollar, Stronger Tech

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total factory orders rose a more-than-expected 2.7% m/m in November after a 1.2% drop in October and a 0.2% increase in September, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. November registered the third m/m rise in four months following m/m declines in July and June. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.6% m/m November increase. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 5.4% in November, the fastest pace since June, up from 2.3% in October and -0.9% in November 2024, while remaining well below a peak of 39.6% in April 2021. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts surged 97.6% m/m in November after falling 17.9% in October and 6.8% in September. Factory orders excluding defense rebounded 3.2% (5.3% y/y), the first m/m increase since August, after a 0.8% October decline. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector grew 0.2% (1.0% y/y), the second m/m increase in three months, after a 0.1% October easing.

Durable goods orders rose 5.3% (12.3% y/y) in November, up for the third time in four months, following a 2.1% decline in October (matching +5.3% m/m in the advance report on January 26). The November rise reflected m/m increases across nearly all major categories, led by a 14.7% rebound in transportation equipment (the third m/m rise in four months and the largest since May; +29.1% y/y), followed by increases of 1.0% (6.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 0.9% (5.2% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.4% (1.4% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.3% (7.7% y/y) in machinery, and 0.1% (4.4% y/y) in primary metals. Meanwhile, orders for computers & electronic products were virtually unchanged (+5.1% y/y) after two consecutive m/m rises.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, held steady (-1.3% y/y) in November following a 0.3% decline in October. The flat November reading reflected m/m increases of 5.0% (-9.3% y/y) in leather & allied products, 0.8% (3.6% y/y) in chemical products, 0.5% (-1.5% y/y) in textile mills, 0.3% (1.3% y/y) in apparel, 0.3% (-0.4% y/y) in printing, 0.2% (0.3% y/y) in paper products, and 0.2% (0.6% y/y) in plastics & rubber products. To the downside, the following nondurable goods shipments declined m/m in November: textile products (-1.7%; -0.1% y/y), petroleum & coal products (-1.1%; -12.2% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (-0.6%; +3.8% y/y), and food products (-0.1%; -0.3% y/y).

Total shipments dipped 0.1% (+2.1% y/y) in November following a 0.1% uptick in October and two successive m/m declines. Excluding transportation, shipments rose 0.2% (0.6% y/y), the second m/m rise in three months, after a 0.1% October dip. Shipments of durable goods industries fell 0.3% (+5.6% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after a 0.5% October increase. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments declines of 1.7% (+10.3% y/y) in transportation equipment, 0.1% (+3.7% y/y) in primary metals, and 0.1% (-3.3% y/y) in wood products. In contrast, the following durable goods shipments rose m/m in November: furniture & related products (1.3%; 2.6% y/y), computers & electronic products (0.9%; 4.9% y/y), fabricated metal products (0.9%; 3.5% y/y), miscellaneous durable goods (0.6%; 2.6% y/y), nonmetallic mineral products (0.5%; 1.0% y/y), and machinery (0.2%; 5.8% y/y). Meanwhile, durable goods shipments for electrical equipment, appliances & components were essentially unchanged (4.2% y/y) in November after five straight m/m rises.

Unfilled orders advanced 1.4% (9.3% y/y) in November, the largest of four consecutive m/m gains, on top of a 0.2% increase in October. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.3% (1.3% y/y), up for the fourth straight month, after a 0.3% October rise. Backlogs of durable goods increased 1.4% (9.3% y/y) in November, led by m/m gains of 2.0% (14.7% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.7% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, partially offset by a 0.1% decline (-0.8% y/y) in computers & electronic products.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (1.1% y/y) in November after holding steady in October and declining 0.1% in both September and August. Excluding transportation, inventories ticked up 0.1% (1.2% y/y), the sixth m/m increase in seven months, after no change in October. Durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (1.5% y/y) following a 0.2% October rise and two successive 0.1% declines, while nondurable goods inventories inched up 0.1% (0.3% y/y) after a 0.2% October decrease.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Factory orders +2.7% m/m in Nov.; +5.4% y/y, largest y/y increase since June.
- Durable goods +5.3% m/m; nondurable goods orders flat; shipments marginally down.
- Transportation orders +14.7% m/m, led by a 97.6% surge in nondefense aircraft orders.
- Unfilled orders +1.4%, biggest of four straight m/m gains.
- Inventories +0.1% after October’s flat reading.

U.S. Factory Orders Rebound in November; Third M/M Gain in Four Months

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Revised data show no adjustment to the initial estimate of 4.9% growth in labor productivity during the third quarter (nonfarm business sector). This strong showing reflected a robust advance in output (5.4%) with little increase in labor input (0.5%).

Productivity figures often swing widely from quarter-to-quarter, and thus, quarterly observations should be interpreted cautiously. In this case, though, the strong results continued a pattern of generally firm increases that have been evident since late 2022. In the chart above, the 8-quarter moving average (to smooth volatility) shows stronger results than those seem before the pandemic. Average compound productivity growth from the end of 2022 to the present totaled 2.6%, up considerably from the average of 1.1 percent in the 2013-18 period.

The chart shows a jump in productivity in 2020-21. However, this gain probably reflects emergency measures adopted by businesses to survive during the Covid pandemic rather than genuine gains in efficiency, although lessons might have been learned that added momentum in subsequent quarters.

Productivity is a key factor in an economy’s inflation environment, as healthy efficiency gains allow businesses to absorb labor costs without raising prices. With strong gains in productivity, unit labor costs (labor compensation adjusted for productivity) have settled recently. Indeed, unit labor costs have declined in the past two quarters and the latest reading on the 8-quarter moving average totaled only 1.8%, easily consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation target of 2.0%.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

- Strong growth in output with little increase in labor input reinforced a firm underlying trend in productivity.
- Efficiency gains in Q3 more than offset growth in labor compensation.

Revised Productivity: No adjustment to Robust Growth in Q3

Sandy Batten

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) widened to $56.8 billion in November from $29.2 billion in October, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The goods deficit increased to $86.9 billion from $59.0 billion while the services surplus widened slightly to $30.1 billion from $29.8 billion. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a deficit of $43.2 billion. The real (inflation-adjusted) trade deficit in goods widened to $87.1 billion (2017$) in November from $63.6 billion in October. When the November reading is combined with the much lower-than-usual October reading, the narrowing of the real trade deficit in the first two months of Q4 puts it on course to add around 0.5%-point to overall real GDP growth.

Exports of goods and services fell 3.6% m/m (+5.9% y/y) in November, more than reversing a 3.0% m/m gain in October. This was the first monthly decline in six months. Goods exports (Census basis) plunged 5.7% m/m in November after monthly increases of 4.3% in October and 5.6% in September. The November weakness was widespread. “Other” exports slumped 13.5% m/m; exports of consumer goods ex autos fell 12.9% m/m; industrial supplies exports declined 7.9% m/m (with nonmonetary gold exports falling $4.2 billion); auto exports slumped 5.8% m/m; food exports decreased 4.0% m/m. A 1.2% monthly gain in capital goods exports was the only major end-use category to report an increase in November. Services exports edged up 0.2% m/m with travel rising 1.4% m/m.

Imports of goods and services rebounded 5.0% m/m (-1.9% y/y) in November, more than reversing their 3.0% monthly decline in October. Goods imports (Census basis) surged 6.5% m/m after tumbling 4.1% m/m in October. Imports of non-auto consumer goods jumped 17.6% m/m but failed to reverse the 20.4% plummet in October. Imports of “other goods” soared 16.1% m/m, its largest monthly gain since July 2020. Capital goods imports rose a solid 7.9% m/m on top of a 7.8% monthly gain in October. Food imports gained 3.8% m/m, their first monthly gain in four months. By contrast, imports of industrial supplies fell 5.0% m/m, their third monthly decline in the past four months. Auto imports edged down 0.6% m/m, their third consecutive monthly decline. Service imports slipped 0.1% m/m in November, their first monthly decline in three months. Travel imports fell 1.4% m/m; charges for imported intellectual property decline 1.3% m/m; imported maintenance and repair services fell 3.6% m/m, their first monthly decline since March 2025.

By country, the goods trade deficit with China widened to $14.7 billion in November from $13.7 billion in October. US exports to China slumped 19.4% m/m, the fourth monthly decline in the past five months. Imports from China declined 2.3% m/m, their third monthly decline in the past four months. The trade deficit with the European Union widened markedly to $14.5 billion in November from $6.3 billion in October. The deficit with Japan widened slightly to $4.7 billion from $4.2 billion.

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The overall deficit widened to $56.8 billion in November from $29.2 billion in October.
- The goods deficit widened markedly to $86.9 billion from $59.0 in October.
- The services surplus widened modestly to $30.1 billion from $29.8 billion in October.
- Exports fell 3.6% m/m, the first monthly decline in six months, while imports rebounded 5.0% m/m.

U.S. Trade Deficit Widened in November

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged down 1,000 to 209,000 in the week ending January 24, from 210,000 in the week ending January 17, revised from 200,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 206,250 in the January 24 week, up 2,250 from 204,000 revised from 201,500 in the January 17 week.

Federal government employees initially filed 798 (NSA) jobless insurance claims in the week ended January 17, after filing 1010 (NSA) claims in the week ended January 10.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” –decreased by 38,000 to 1.827 million in the week ending January 17, from 1.865 million in the week ending January 10, revised from 1.849 million. This is the lowest level for continuing claims since September 21, 2024, when it was 1.825 million. The four-week moving average was 1.867 million in the latest week, down from 1.875 million, revised from 1.871 million in the prior week. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of January 17, unchanged from previous 7 weeks.

Federal government employees’ continuing benefits claims were 13,360 (NSA) in the week ending January 10, up from 12,977 (NSA) in the week ending January 3.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending January 10, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (2.91%), New Jersey (2.77%), Massachusetts (2.68%), Washington (2.67%), Minnesota (2.49%), California (2.33%), Puerto Rico (2.24%), Montana (2.08%), and Michigan (2.07%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), North Carolina (0.42%), Louisiana (0.44%), and Alabama (0.48%). Rates in other notable states include Illinois (2.30%), New York (2.06%), Pennsylvania (1.96%), and Texas (1.21%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- Initial claims declined by 1,000 from the prior week.
- Continuing claims declined by 38,000 from the prior week to the lowest level since September 2024.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged.

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Edged Down in Latest Week

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In January, we see an uptick in the EU Commission indexes that chronicle conditions in the European Monetary Union. The overall index is up smartly to 99.4 in January from 97.2 in December with improvement in four of the five subindexes with construction being unchanged month-to-month and for three months in a row; construction is also the strongest sector among the five by a long shot. The top line EMU reading was last this strong in January 2023, two years ago, on an isolated reading. It was last stronger for a string of period March 2021 through February 2022, in the heat of the post-Covid revival, averaging 111.6 on that span and reaching a monthly value as high as 119.9.

**Rank standings rise and firm**
The overall EU Commission index has the queue percentile standing at its 46.7 percentile, very close to the 50% mark that establishes the median for the series among the five components. Retailing and construction are both above their respective 50% marks, with retailing at a 56-percentile standing and construction at an 81.9 percentile standing. The weakest reading is on consumer confidence at a 26.6 percentile standing, while services have a 43.5 percentile standing with the industrial sector at a 43.4 percentile standing. Both the services and industrial readings are climbing up closer to their respective medians but not quite there yet.

**Largest economies show the clearest turns**
All four of the largest economies showed monthly increases in January with the largest increase a 6.1% month-to-month increase by France; the smallest was a 1.3% increase by Italy. While that's good news, it's also true that all four of those readings had declined in December compared to November. For the rest of the countries of the Monetary Union, eight of those 14 countries experienced month-to-month setbacks to their overall confidence readings in January, but only 3 of those 14 countries had experienced contractions in December and only 3 of them had experienced contractions in November; and, in November, only one of the four largest economies had experienced contraction.

**Generally, positive developments are afoot**
Generally speaking, the trends are moving in a positive direction despite monthly volatility across the 18 early reporting countries; 9 of them show queue percentile standings above the 50th percentile, 2 of those are among the four largest economies, Italy and Spain. Quite clearly conditions within the monetary union remain mixed but the upward momentum and recent improvement is unmistakable.

**Sector performance in largest EMU economies**
Among the four largest economies, the industrial sector has an above 50 percentile ranking in France and in Spain. Germany, and Italy are lagging behind. Construction has above 50-percentile standing in each of the four largest economies except France where its percentile standing is in its 42nd percentile. Spain does not report consumer confidence, retailing, and services numbers separately. Among the remaining big three countries, only Italy has readings above its 50-percentile mark and those are only in retailing and services. Consumer confidence continues to lag everywhere with the highest assessment among the BIG-4 economies in Germany with the 45.8 percentile standing and the lowest in France at a 20.4 percentile standing.

**Tracking improvement**
The chart at the top shows that in broad terms we can see the improvement is relatively long lived for the BIG-3 economies and in EMU. We can be hopeful that there really is a trend of improvement that is taking hold. From mid-2025 or so onward, there are steady improvements in gear. Two of the BIG-3 economies are improving along with the EMU aggregate; only Germany tends to flatline on that timeline. The recent improvement in Germany is a relatively new feature in what otherwise looks like German stability. These trends now have some length, making the momentum seem more durable.

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EU Commission Indexes for EMU Turn Higher

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The U.S. ISM Services PMI held at 53.8 in January and December following ISM’s latest seasonal adjustments, slightly up from 52.4 in November, according to today’s report by the Institute for Supply Management, indicating expansion in the services sector for the 19th consecutive month. The January index was above 52.6 in January 2025 and a low of 49.4 in June 2024 but below a high of 55.5 in October 2024 and a record-high 67.5 in November 2021. The 12-month average was 51.8, pointing to continued growth in the U.S. services sector. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 53.6 for January.

Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing reading. This index rose to 53.7 in January from 53.1 in December and 51.9 in November, signaling expansion for the eighth straight month and at the fastest pace since October 2024. The latest figure was above a low of 49.3 in June 2024 and a low of 48.9 in December 2022 but below 52.3 in January 2025 and a record-high 66.7 in November 2021. These series date back to July 1997.

In the latest services survey, the business activity index advanced to 57.4 in January after increasing to 55.2 in December, indicating continued expansion in business activity for 19 straight months and at the fastest pace since October 2024. The index was up from a low of 50.0 in June 2024 but below a record-high 70.9 in November 2021. An increased 25.4% of respondents (NSA) reported higher activity in January while a reduced 17.7% reported an activity decline. The new orders index fell to 53.1 in January after rising to 56.5 in December, reflecting expansion in new orders for the eighth straight month. The index was above its recent low of 47.2 in May 2025 but below a high of 61.0 in February 2023 and a record-high 69.2 in October 2021. An increased 22.5% of respondents (NSA) reported higher new orders in January while 20.5% reported declines. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index (NSA) increased to 54.2 in January from 51.8 in December, indicating slower supplier delivery performance for the 14th straight month after one month in faster territory in November 2024.

On the labor front, the employment index fell to 50.3 in January after rising to 51.7 in December, showing employment activity in the services sector expanded for the second consecutive month, albeit at a slightly slower pace. The latest reading was above a low of 43.5 in December 2023 but below a high of 54.1 in June 2023 and a high of 58.9 in April 2021. In January, 13.8% of respondents (NSA) indicated higher employment while 16.2% reported declines.

On the inflation front, the prices index rose to 66.6 in January from 65.1 in December, indicating prices paid by services organizations for materials and services had risen (i.e., above 50) since June 2017. The index was above a low of 53.9 in March 2024 and a low of 55.1 in June 2023 but significantly below a record-high 83.7 in March 2022. An increased 33.4% of respondents (NSA) reported higher prices in January while only 2.0% reported price declines.

Additionally, the new export orders index dropped to 45.0 in January after rising to 54.2 in December, showing new export orders contracted for the sixth time in seven months and at the lowest level since March 2023. The imports index fell to 48.2 in January from 50.3 in December, registering the fourth contraction in five months and the lowest level since October. The inventories index decreased to 45.1 in January from 54.2 in December, indicating inventories contracted after expanding in December and November. The inventory sentiment index edged up to 54.3 in January from 54.1 in December, showing continued expansion since May 2023. The backlog of orders index increased to 44.0 in January after falling to 42.6 in December, marking the 11th straight contraction. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector; below 50 suggests contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- ISM Services PMI 53.8 in Jan. & Dec., above expectations and the 12-month avg. of 51.8.
- Business Activity (57.4, 19th straight month of expansion), New Orders (53.1, eighth consecutive month of expansion), Employment (50.3, second successive month of expansion), and Supplier Deliveries (54.2 vs. 51.8).
- Prices Index (66.6) shows prices rising since June ’17, the fastest pace in three mths.

U.S. ISM Services PMI Holds Steady in January; 19 Straight Months of Expansion

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