Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Tom Moeller

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Job openings edged up 0.2% (0.7% y/y) to 7.670 million in October, after surging to 7.658 million in September, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The job openings rate held steady at 4.6%.	It remained below its record of 7.4% reached in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.

Private sector openings rose 0.3% (2.7% y/y) to 6.894 million in October, after surging 6.4% in September. The private openings rate held steady at 4.8%. Job openings in construction fell 7.8% (-14.5% y/y), after rising 22.9%, while manufacturing openings rose 6.5% (-9.9% y/y) following a 5.9% shortfall. Professional & business services openings fell 7.6% (+2.2% y/y), after surging 21.6% in September. Leisure/hospitality openings declined 1.9% (-0.6% y/y) after strong increases in the prior two months. Openings in private education & healthcare rose 3.0% (-3.0% y/y), after easing 0.7% in September. Financial sector openings plummeted 20.0% (-22.0% y/y), after increasing 15.1% in September. Government openings fell 1.5% (-13.9% y/y) in October, after rising 2.2% in September.

Private sector hiring declined 4.5% (-3.8% y/y) to 4.796 million in October, after a 4.5% September Increase. This was the fifth shortfall in six months and nearly the lowest reading in over a year. The total hiring rate fell to 3.2%, equaling its lowest reading since April 2020. Construction jobs declined 11 .8% (-3.1% y/y), following a 0.6% rise while manufacturing employment declined 4.4% both m/m and y/y, after rising 4.9%. Hiring in trade, transportation & utilities rose 1.5% (-8.9% y/y), after a 3.2% increase. Financial services hiring fell 5.5% (+11.9% y/y), after rising 3.3%. Professional & business services declined 7.7% (-1.8% y/y), after a 1.5% rise. Private educational & health services employment declined 10.5% (-4.4% y/y), after a 17.5% strengthening. Government jobs rose 2.0% (-2.5% y/y), after strengthening 7.8% in September.

Total separations fell 4.1% (-4.4% y/y) to 5.050 million in October, after a 3.0% September rise. The total separations rate slipped to 3.2%. Private separations fell 3.9% (-5.4% y/y) to 4.708 million, while government sector separations weakened 6.3% (+10.3% y/y). Total quits declined 6.0% (-8.6% y/y), the eighth monthly drop this year. Private sector quits fell 5.2% (-9.1% y/y), the fourth monthly decline in the past five months. Layoffs and discharges rose 4.1% (3.7% y/y) to 1.854 million in October, after a 3.2% September rise. Private sector layoffs rose 3.1% (2.9% y/y) in October.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Minimal rise in job openings follows sharp September increase.
- Sizable hiring decline reverses earlier increase.
- Separations fall sharply as quits plunge and layoffs rise.

U.S. JOLTS—Openings Rise Slightly; Hiring Declines in October

Winnie Tapasanun

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 99.0 in November, the highest level since August, from 98.2 in October and 98.8 in September, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. This was the seventh consecutive month that the index was above the 52-year average of 98. The index was down from its recent peak of 105.1 in December 2024 and 101.7 in November 2024 but up from a low of 88.5 in March 2024. Six of the 10 index components rose, three fell, and one was unchanged. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index rose to 91 in November following a 12-point plunge to 88 in October, driven primarily by an increase in business owners expressing uncertainty about their capital expenditure plans over the next three to six months. The index, while down from its record high of 110 in October 2024, was above its recent low of 86 in December 2024 and a low of 65 in November 2023.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months remained positive for the 13th straight month in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve fell to 15% in November, the lowest level since April, on top of a three-point decline to 20% in October; these readings were well below their recent high of 52% in December 2024 but significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales rose to a net 15% in November from 6% in October, marking the strongest of seven successive positive readings and the highest level since January 2025. The latest figure was below its recent high of 22% in December 2024 but above a low of -18% in August 2024. A net -9% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up from -13% in October. The latest result remained below the most recent positive reading of 1% in May 2022 and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to expand the business held steady at 13% in November and October, the highest reading since August; the latest figure, while down from its recent high of 20% in December 2024, was up from a low of 2% in March 2023. Plans to make capital outlays fell to 20% in November, the lowest reading since April, from a 10-month-high 23% in October; these numbers were down from their recent high of 28% in November 2024 and a high of 31% in October 2021. Expected credit conditions declined to -5% in November from -3% in October; this result was slightly below its recent high of -2% in December 2024 but above a low of -11% in November 2023. Meanwhile, a net -1% of respondents viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in November, up from -4% in October.

On the labor front, fifty percent of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in November, slightly up from 49% in October. These numbers were up from the recent low of 43% in August but below a high of 56% in August 2024 and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 19% planned to increase employment in November, up from 15% in October and posting the highest reading since December 2024; it was above a low of 11% in March 2024 but below a high of 26% in May 2022 and a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 33% reported positions not able to be filled in November, up slightly from 32% in October and the highest level since July; these figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The measure increased to -23% in November, a still-weak reading, following a nine-point drop to -25% in October. These readings, while up from a low of -37% in August 2024, were below the most recent high of -16% in September and a high of -5% in June 2021.

On the pricing front, actual and expected selling prices, though trending lower, remained at an inflationary level, indicating continued inflationary pressures. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices jumped to 34% in November after a three-point decline to 21% in October, marking the highest reading since March 2023 and the biggest m/m increase in the survey’s history. The latest reading was up from 24% in November 2024 but well below a high of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices held steady at 30% in November following a one-point dip to 30% in October; it was above 28% in November 2024 but below highs of 33% in March 2024 and 52% in March 2022.

Wage inflation remained relatively high in the November survey. A net 26% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, unchanged from October. It was down from a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 24% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, up from 19% reported in October and marking the highest reading since December 2024; this remained below highs of 28% in November 2024, 30% in November 2023, and 32% in October 2022.

The quality of labor was cited as the single most important problem facing small businesses, as reported by 21% of NFIB members in November, down six points from 27% in October. Inflation ranked second and remained a key challenge for small businesses, as reported by 15% of respondents in November—the highest reading since March 2025—compared with 12% in October; these readings were well below a peak of 37% in July 2022. Taxes ranked third as the next most important problem, as reported by 14% of respondents in November—the lowest reading since November 2024—compared with 16% in October. Other concerns (in November vs. October) included insurance cost/availability (10% vs. 8%), government requirements (10% vs. 7%), poor sales (9% vs. 10%), labor costs (8% vs. 8%), and other issues (7% vs. 5%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- NFIB Small Business Optimism Idx up 0.8 pts. to 99.0 in Nov., driven by stronger real sales expectations.
- Uncertainty Idx up 3 pts. to 91, reflecting uncertainty about CapEx plans.
- Expectations for economy down 5 pts. to a 7-month-low 15%.
- Expected real sales up 9 pts. to 15%, highest since Jan. ’25.
- Plans to expand business unchanged at 13%.
- Firms raising avg. selling prices up 13 pts. to 34%, highest since March ’23 and largest m/m increase on record.
- Quality of labor (21%), inflation (15%), and taxes (14%) are the top three business concerns.

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Rises to a Three-Month High in November

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades declined to an average $3.07 per gallon (-1.9% y/y) in the week ended December 8 after falling to $3.12 per gallon during the prior week. It was the lowest price since May 2021. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Their all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. Haver Analytics seasonally adjusts the retail price of regular grade gasoline. That price rose to $3.18 per gallon last week after falling to $3.17 in the previous week. Diesel fuel prices declined to $3.67 per gallon last week (+6.0% y/y) after falling to $3.76 per gallon in the prior week.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to an average $59.33 per barrel (-13.3% y/y) in the week ended December 5, after falling to $58.50 per barrel in the prior week from $59.46. Prices remained under their recent high of $74.17 during the third week of June. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $58.88 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude fell to $63.98 per barrel (-13.5% y/y) last week, after rising to $64.38 in the prior week from $63.64. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in June 2022. Yesterday, the price was $63.30 per barrel.

Natural gas prices increased to an average $4.97/mmbtu (71.4% y/y) in the week ended December 5 after rising to $4.36/mmbtu in the prior week. The increase left prices at the highest level since the third week of February and well above the low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024. Yesterday, the price was $5.02/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand declined 1.2% y/y in the four weeks ending November 28, after edging 0.1% higher y/y in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products fell 0.5% y/y after holding steady y/y in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries declined 0.6% y/y in the four weeks ending November 28, after falling 2.2% y/y in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories eased 0.1% y/y in the week ending November 28 following a 1.1% y/y decline in the prior week. Residual fuel oil inventories slipped 0.3% y/y in the November 28 week after falling 1.3% y/y in the prior week. Working higher, crude oil inventories rose 2.9% y/y in the week of November 28 after increasing 2.4% y/y in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories rose to 24.8 days in the week ended November 28, a six-week high, from 23.9 days in the prior week. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 7, 2024. The supply of crude oil slipped w/w to 26.1 days in the week of November 28 from 26.7 days in the prior week. The supply remained below a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** and **USENERGY** databases.

- Gasoline prices fall sharply to four-year low.
- Crude oil prices reverse prior week’s decline.
- Natural gas prices move to highest level since February.
- Gasoline demand falls sharply y/y.

U.S. Energy Prices Remain Mixed in Latest Week

Robert Brusca

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Japan's economy watchers index stepped back in November after making some strong strides in October. But the current index and the future index retained stronger values in November than in September even with the backtracking compared to October so that the October improvement actually continues to hold merit. However, there is no follow-through on the October gain.

In November, the current index declined in the headline as well as in six components, with only three components showing improvement month-to-month. The three showing improvement were retailing, services, and nonmanufacturers.  

Over three months and point-to-point comparison, the headline improves and seven of nine components improve. Over six months, the headline improves and 8 of 9 components improve. However over 12 months, the headline barely ticks higher and only three components improve compared to 12 months ago.

The queue standing for the current index headline is that 60.9%, leaving it above its historic median. All the components have readings above their 50th percentile except for eating and drinking establishments, housing, manufacturing, and employment. Unfortunately, the employment standing at 26.9% is the weakest of the lot. And despite the breath and other categories, that's concerning.

The future index in November showed month-to-month declines across the board for the headline as well as for all of the components. In October there were increases across the board for the headline and all components while in September there were increases in the headline and all components except two with the lagging components being services and employment. Over three months the future headline increases and all the components increase except for housing. Over six months the future index increases and all the components increase. Over 12 months the future headline increases and all the components improve except for housing, manufacturers, and employment. The standing for the future index in November is at its 68.8 percentile and all the components have standings above their 50th percentile except housing and employment. All the components that have standings above the 50th percentile have standings that are pretty much at the 60th percentile or higher except for manufacturing with a rating of 55.7 percentile.

These findings show that both the current and the future indexes are relatively strong with solid breadth. However, there's even stronger readings and breadth across the future index than for the current index. While the current index and the future index have stepped down relative to October, both show solid and strong momentum over three and six months; however, over 12 months the future index shows better momentum than the current index. This is interesting because Japan has recently installed a new Prime Minister and the Bank of Japan is being looked at more closely; it is beginning to more seriously consider rate hikes as inflation looks to be a more entrenched problem that the central bank is getting ready to turn its attention to.

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Japan

Japan’s Economy Watchers Index Backs Off

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 1.1% during the four weeks ended December 5, 2025 after rising 0.3% in the prior four-week period. The index increased 2.1% y/y last week following a 1.6% y/y gain in the last week of November.

**Metals** sector prices increased 2.8% (12.6% y/y) in the last four weeks after a 0.3% slip in the prior four week-period. Tin prices surged 9.6% (38.9% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of copper scrap surged 5.2% (26.3% y/y) and the cost of steel scrap rose 2.9% (5.2% y/y) in four weeks. Zinc prices rose 2.6% (6.2% y/y) in four weeks but lead prices weakened 2.0% (-4.4% y/y. Also moving lower, the cost of aluminum eased 0.6% (+10.3% y/y).

**Crude oil & benzene** costs rose 1.7% (-6.4% y/y) in the last four weeks, following a 0.8% rise in the previous period. The price of the petro-chemical benzene surged 13.9% (-4.8% y/y) in four weeks. Moving down, the cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 2.2% in four weeks to $59.01 per barrel and declined 14.0% y/y. The price remained increased from a low of $58.47 in the third week of last month.

**Excluding crude oil**, the industrial commodity price index increased 1.3% (3.1% y/y) over the last four weeks after rising 0.6% during the prior four-week period.

**Miscellaneous** sector prices improved 0.8% in the last four weeks, down 2.9% y/y, after rising 0.3% in the prior period. The cost of tallow, used for frying & baking, rose 8.4% (14.4% y/y) in four weeks. Natural rubber prices rose 1.3% in four weeks, but declined 13.0% y/y. Framing lumber prices eased 0.6% (-8.9% y/y) in four weeks.

**Textile** group prices eased 0.4% during the last four weeks after rising 0.7% in the prior four-week periods. They strengthened 2.7% y/y. The cost of burlap declined 4.0% in the last four weeks while soaring 43.2% over the last year. Cotton prices improved 0.5% in four weeks but declined 7.2% y/y.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Higher metals prices lead upturn.
- Crude oil & framing lumber prices also rise.
- Textile prices ease.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Post Broad-Based Gains in Latest Four Weeks

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German growth brought a surprise to the upside in October when industrial production rose by 1.8% after rising 1.1% in September and falling by 3.7% in August. German output saw gains of 2.1% in consumer goods output, 2.1% in capital goods output, and 0.6% in intermediate goods output on a month-to-month basis in October. Each of these categories saw output increase in the last two months in a row. However, for most of these sectors’ output declined and fell rather sharply in August.

As a result, of these monthly gyrations, we're staring at somewhat unusual and mixed trends. The monthly trends are encouraging. However, the sequential trends from 12-months, 6-months and 3-months show a steady deceleration in total industrial production growth, a steady deceleration in consumer goods production’s pace, a steady deceleration in the output of the capital goods sector as well, all of those contrasted to a mixed sequential performance with a strong three-month gain for intermediate goods output. The manufacturing sector as a whole, apart from total industrial production, also shows output on a decelerating path from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months. Near-term strength has not been able to override a negative overall trend.

Industrial orders are showing a mixed performance with some strength tagged on at the end over three months. Real manufacturing orders fall by 0.5% over 12 months. They fall by a slightly faster 0.9% annual rate over six months, but then they rise at a 13.3% annual rate over three months. The three-month pickup is reassuring, but it's still not strong enough to drive the year-over-year change into positive territory.

Real sales of manufactured goods are also weak, falling by 1.6% over 12 months, falling to a 6.8% annual rate over six months and then accelerating their drop to a 10.5% annual rate decline over three months. The decline in inflation-adjusted sales growth pace is a disturbing trend, and it mirrors the underlying decline in manufacturing output.

Industrial indicators from the ZEW group, the IFO, and the EU Commission send a somewhat mixed picture monthly. Three of these metrics the IFO manufacturing survey, IFO expectations and the EU Commission index improved in October although the ZEW current index fell relatively sharply in October compared to September. Sequentially the analysis changes with both of the IFO readings for manufacturing and for manufacturing expectations showing progressive improvement from 12-months to six-months to 3-months. However, for the ZEW current index and for the EU Commission survey, the patterns remain mixed although there is improvement in the sense that the 3-month readings are stronger than the 12-month readings.

Turning back to industrial output data, we have readings from five European economies, three of them are monetary union-even countries. Spain, Portugal, Sweden, and Norway, each show progressive improvement in industrial output as the expansion rate for output improves from 12-months to 6-months and from 6-months to 3-months. In France, output increases over 12 months, even steps up its growth pace over six months but then it logs a decline over three months.

Quarter-to-date all industrial output metrics are showing gains of sone sort for the German sectors and for the European economies. German real orders are rising strongly early in the new quarter while real sales are falling. As for the indicators, the ZEW current index is dropping in Q4 compared to Q3, but the other industrial metrics show gains.

For more perspective, the queue rankings of indicators are generally below their midpoints. However, German sector industrial production and the country-level production in manufacturing are generally showing year-on-year growth rate above their historic medians on data back to 2006. Exceptions are that capital goods output is below its median pace, while German total IP is above its median; the growth rate for Germany manufacturing is not. France, Spain, Sweden, and Norway show year-on-year growth above their historic median pace, but in Portugal the ranking is at its 47th percentile, slightly below its historic median.

The bottom line is that October is an upside-disturbing surprise. It dove-tails with the better performance from the Baltic dry goods index. But the longer-term trends in Germany are still negative, with output in the other European countries in the table is generally on an upswing. Germany is not out of the woods yet.

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Germany

German Output Scores Unexpectedly Strong Gains in October

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The PCE chain price index increased 0.3% in September after rising 0.3% in August. The y/y gain rose to 2.8 from 2.7% in August and was the largest gain since April 2024, up from 2.3% growth in April of this year. The PCE price index excluding food and energy prices rose 0.2% for the third straight month. The y/y rise eased to 2.8% from 2.9%.

Goods prices increased 0.5% (1.4% y/y) after a 0.1% rise but durable goods eased 0.1% (+0.9% y/y) for the third straight month. Home furnishings prices rose 0.4% (2.2% y/y) but recreational goods & vehicle prices fell 0.4% (-1.8% y/y). Nondurable goods prices strengthened 0.7% (1.7% y/y) Gasoline & other energy goods prices jumped 3.6% (-0.2% y/y), the largest increase since December of last year, while clothing prices surged 0.8% (-0.2% y/y). Prices of services increased 0.2% (3.4% y/y) after rising 0.3% for two months. Transportation services prices strengthened 1.0% (4.2% y/y) while housing & utility costs edged 0.1% higher, 4.0% y/y. Prices of services excluding energy & healthcare, increased 0.2% (3.6% y/y) in September.

Personal consumption expenditures in September improved 0.3% (5.0% y/y) after increasing 0.5% for three consecutive months. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. After adjusting for inflation, PCE held steady, the weakest increase in four months. Real PCE growth of 2.1% y/y compared to a 3.6% rise during 2024.

Real spending on durable goods fell 0.6% (+2.1% y/y) during September as real sales of motor vehicles declined 1.1% (-0.6% y/y) after falling 1.6% in August. Home furnishings sales, adjusted for inflation, declined 0.3% (+0.3% y/y) while real sales of recreational & vehicles fell 0.5% (+6.7% y/y). Constant dollar sales of nondurable goods eased 0.3% (+2.1% y/y) in September as apparel spending fell 1.5% (+6.6% y/y). Real consumption of services gained 0.2% (2.2% y/y) for the fourth month in the last five. Spending on housing & utilities rose 0.3% (1.0% y/y) while real outlays on recreation services declined 0.4% (+1.4% y/y).

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Personal income increased an expected 0.4% (5.2% y/y) in September, the same as in August. Growth of wages & salaries also was steady at 0.4% (5.0% y/y). Proprietors income eased 0.1% (+3.7% y/y) but asset earnings rose 0.6% (2.6% y/y). Disposable personal income increased 0.3% (4.8% y/y) in September following two months of 0.4% increase. Real disposable income rose 0.1% (1.9% y/y) for a second straight month. The saving rate held steady m/m at 4.7%, below the 5.7% high this past April. Personal saving rose 2.1% y/y.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total PCE price index drifts up even as core price gain dips.
- Real PCE gain slips as goods outlays fall.
- Personal income gain steadies.

U.S. PCE Core Price Index Gain Eases; Personal Spending Growth Slows & Income Steadies in September

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Growth in the euro area came in a little bit stronger in the third quarter as growth is up 1.1% compared to 0.6% in the second quarter and 2.3% in the first quarter. These are annualized quarter-to-quarter results. Ranked on growth rate data back to 1997, the EMU 1.4% GDP growth rate has a 41.3 percentile standing which puts it below its median growth rate for this period. 

Among the countries in the table that includes 16 European countries, Japan, as well as the European Monetary Union aggregate, only 6 countries have growth rates above their medians in 2025-Q3. One of them, Denmark, is not a monetary union member; it has a standing in its 90.2 percentile. Ireland has a rank standing in its 83.7 percentile. Portugal has a growth standing in its 66.3 percentile. Greece's growth rate is in its 60.9 percentile. Cyprus’ standing is in its 57.6 percentile. The median growth rate among reporting members has year-over-year growth at 2.0% and that's a 41.3 percentile standing.

Quarterly growth in the third quarter decelerates in four of the reporting monetary union countries. This is down from 9 decelerations in the second quarter. Growth also decelerates in the third quarter in six countries when measured on a year-over-year basis. Monetary union growth decelerates year-over-year as well.

There's not a particular pattern to the median growth rate, which was at 2.2% on the fourth quarter of 2024, slipped to 1.7% in 2025-Q1 and then to 1.6% in in 2025-Q2, and it has picked up to a 2% pace in the third quarter of 2025. The monetary union overall growth rate which is weighted for the size of the underlying economies, shows 1.3% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, stepping up to 1.6% in the first quarter, remaining at 1.6% in the second quarter, and then slipping slightly to 1.4% in the third quarter of 2025.

Growth is favored in the smaller economies in the European Monetary Union as the four largest economies have a year-on-year growth rate that is below the growth rate for the rest of the European Monetary Union in each of the last four quarters. The year-over-year growth rate for the third quarter shows the largest four EMU economies are growing at a 0.9% year-over-year pace compared with 2.7% pace for the rest of the monetary union. This strength is also reflected in the growth standings with the four largest economies having a growth rate standing at their 37th percentile, compared to a 57.6 percentile for the rest of the monetary union.

We have no comparison for the United States right now because U.S. GDP has been delayed by the U.S. shutdown dynamics. But both Japan and Switzerland are logging relatively weak growth rates in the third quarter of 2025, with Japan at 1.1% year-over-year and Switzerland at 0.5%. Japan's growth rate is still a 50th percentile ranking while Switzerland's growth rate is a 13.6 percentile ranking against its historic results.

The growth rate for the monetary union is revised lightly higher than it was; still, it shows growth slowing quarter-to-quarter on an annualized basis. Only three of the monetary union reporting countries in the third quarter show quarterly growth actually falling; German growth is dead flat at zero. The overall monetary union growth rate is still quite moderate on a quarterly as well as annual basis. However, growth is still in train; inflation remains moderate. Growth in the monetary union is generally supported more by the smaller countries than by the large countries.

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Europe

GDP in EMU Is Firmer Quarter-to-Quarter, But Slowing

Andrew Cates

**The Blue Chip Consensus**
Before turning to the risks that could unsettle the global outlook in 2026, it’s worth noting the backdrop against which those risks are emerging. The first chart shows that forecasters have, if anything, become more optimistic in recent months, raising their 2026 GDP projections across many major economies. The upgrades are most visible in Asia’s tech-focused economies, where the semiconductor and AI upturn is lifting expectations, but the US has also benefited from stronger-than-expected momentum and fading concerns that tariffs would deliver a major growth hit. In short, the starting point for the global outlook has improved—making the downside scenarios explored in the next few charts all the more important to test.

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**Policy divergence**
The second chart highlights one of the central risks to the 2026 outlook: monetary-policy calibration. Even as growth expectations have firmed, forecasters remain convinced that the major central banks still have a little further to go in their easing cycles. For both the Fed and the Bank of England, respondents expect additional rate cuts in early 2026, albeit with growing uncertainty about the exact timing and pace. The broader message is that the heavy lifting on disinflation is now largely done, and what remains are finer calibration risks—where cutting too slowly risks choking momentum, while cutting too aggressively risks undoing progress on inflation. The ECB outlook is far more fragmented. A large share of forecasters sees the next step as a cut—though not necessarily soon—but a meaningful minority lean toward a possible hike. At the opposite pole is the Bank of Japan. Unlike its peers, the BoJ is still expected to tighten policy, reflecting Japan’s firmer growth foundation and a more durable inflation process. This creates a notable US–Japan policy divergence, which has already influenced currency and bond-market behaviour and could become a larger global shock-transmission channel in 2026.

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**Financial market stress**
The third chart highlights another source of downside risk: the widening gap between financial-market calm and real-economy anxiety. The US VIX has spent most of the past year hovering near multi-decade lows, consistent with rich valuations, abundant liquidity and a broadly optimistic macro narrative. Yet measured global economic policy uncertainty remains unusually elevated, reflecting geopolitical fragmentation, shifting trade regimes, and highly uncertain fiscal trajectories. This disconnect matters. Periods in which markets price near-perfection while the policy environment deteriorates have often been precursors to sharp repricing episodes. With valuations stretched and volatility compressed, it would not take much—a policy misstep, a geopolitical shock, or a rapid shift in rate expectations—to trigger a correction big enough to destabilise confidence in 2026.

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**AI expectations**
Against that backdrop, our next chart highlights a more subtle but no less important vulnerability: expectations around AI-driven growth. While AI has undoubtedly been a powerful tailwind for market sentiment—and arguably a key reason why forecasters have nudged up 2026 growth projections—our survey suggests that most respondents believe financial markets are overestimating the likely economic gains. Only around a third think current expectations are broadly accurate; almost nobody believes markets are underestimating AI’s impact. This imbalance matters. When valuations are rich and optimism is heavily front-loaded, any disappointment in AI adoption, productivity gains or investment payoffs could unwind a meaningful chunk of the recent market strength. In other words, the same force lifting the outlook today could become a meaningful downside catalyst in 2026 if reality fails to keep pace with expectation.

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**Trade disruption** 
A further downside risk comes from the latent fragilities in global trade and logistics. The Baltic Dry Index has climbed sharply in recent months, hinting at firmer shipping demand and rising transport costs, even as the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has edged lower. That combination is telling: headline congestion may not yet be building, but underlying pressures—tight vessel availability, shifting trade routes, selective port bottlenecks and stronger goods flows—are quietly re-accumulating beneath the surface. None of this resembles the acute disruptions of 2021–22, but the risk is that a seemingly contained system can tighten very quickly. For a global economy that remains vulnerable to cost shocks and production delays, any renewed squeeze in trade logistics would add another meaningful downside risk as we look toward 2026.

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**Geopolitical shocks** 
Geopolitical risk has eased from the extremes seen during the early stages of the Israel–Gaza conflict, but the broader backdrop remains far from settled. The global Geopolitical Risk Index is still running well above its pre-pandemic norm, and volatility is now being driven less by any single flashpoint and more by a crowded field of simmering risks. These range from an unstable Russia–Ukraine stalemate and intensifying U.S.–China strategic rivalry to ongoing tensions across the Taiwan Strait, a fragile security environment in the South China Sea, periodic flare-ups in the Caucasus and Sahel, and rising political strain ahead of multiple major elections in 2026. Venezuela’s increasing instability—both domestically and in relation to its border dispute with Guyana—adds another potential source of disruption, particularly for energy markets. While none of these risks is dominating headlines at present, history shows that geopolitical shocks rarely give advance warning. A sudden escalation in any of these theatres could easily unsettle trade flows, energy prices or investor sentiment—another meaningful downside risk as we approach 2026.

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As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy enters 2026 with a surprisingly resilient backdrop: equity markets are still trading near cycle highs, volatility is subdued, and consensus forecasts have been drifting upward in recent months—helped by a robust US economy, firmer momentum across Asia, and optimism that AI-related investment will continue to lift the medium-term outlook (chart 1). Against this relatively constructive starting point, we focus this week on the key downside risks that could challenge the consensus narrative next year: the possibility of monetary-policy miscalibration (chart 2); the gap between elevated policy uncertainty and unusually calm financial markets (chart 3); the risk that financial markets may be overestimating the gains from AI (chart 4); renewed strain in global trade (chart 5); and geopolitical tensions (chart 6). These risks do not dominate the baseline outlook, but they help frame the vulnerabilities that could matter if global conditions deteriorate. Next week, we will turn to the upside risks—the forces that could allow the world economy to outperform again in 2026.

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Charts of the Week: The Downside Risks

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