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Benchmark revision shows less worrisome US inflation

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total retail sales rose a larger-than-expected 0.8% m/m to $745.02 billion in September, the seventh m/m rise in eight months, following a 1.3% gain in August (+1.1% previously reported on Sept. 28 and +1.2% on Sept. 16) and a 0.4% decline in July (-0.5% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed, suggesting resilient consumer spending and continued domestic demand in Q3 2026. A 0.3% m/m September increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 6.3% in September, the highest since May, from 5.6% in August (3.7% in September 2025), while remaining well below a high of 17.5% in February 2022 and a record high of 51.5% in April 2021. On a quarterly basis, retail sales rose 1.2% q/q in Q3 ’26 (5.5% y/y), slowing from 2.8% q/q in Q2 ’26 (5.6% y/y), suggesting a cooler pace of nominal consumer spending growth in Q3 ’26. (**Note**: On September 28, the Census Bureau released annual Retail Trade revisions – no new observations were reported; revised data reflected the introduction of new seasonal factors and the results of the 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey; data were revised back to 1992.)

Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales grew a greater-than-expected 0.9% (7.2% y/y) in September after a 1.4% gain in August (+1.3% previously reported on Sept. 28 and +1.4% on Sept. 16). A 0.5% m/m September rise had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts edged up 0.2% (2.5% y/y), the fourth m/m increase in five months, after a 0.7% August rebound; this compared to a 3.8% drop (-3.5% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales following a 2.2% August gain.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, ticked up 0.1% (4.7% y/y) in September, the seventh m/m rise in eight months, following a 1.2% rebound in August, capping a firm Q3 2026 for underlying consumer demand. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials rose 0.3% (5.1% y/y), up for the seventh time in eight months, after a 1.2% August increase.

Sales by category were mixed in September. Posting the biggest m/m gain among major categories, gasoline station sales surged 6.4% (28.1% y/y) in September, the largest since March, after a 4.0% recovery in August, as the September CPI showed gasoline prices up 9.1% (34.2% y/y); gasoline stations accounted for 71.4% of the $5.7 billion increase in total retail sales. Furniture & home furnishing store sales advanced 1.3% (4.9% y/y) following a 0.2% August increase. Electronics & appliance store sales climbed 0.6% (9.4% y/y), the fourth straight m/m gain and the 11th in 12 months, on top of a 2.1% August rise. Nonstore retail sales grew 0.3% (8.2% y/y), up for the 11th time in 12 months, following a 2.0% August increase. In contrast, miscellaneous store sales dropped 3.0% (+10.9% y/y), the first m/m decline since April and the steepest since August 2025, after a 3.6% August jump. Building materials & garden equipment store sales fell 0.6% (+4.5% y/y) after a 0.2% August increase, and sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales slid 0.5% (+9.6% y/y) after a 1.0% August rise; both decreased for the second time in three months. General merchandise store sales slipped 0.1% (+4.2% y/y) in September, the first m/m easing since April, after a 0.8% gain in August; within this category, department store sales recovered 1.6% (6.4% y/y), the largest m/m gain since March, following a 0.6% August decline. Meanwhile, clothing & accessory store sales were virtually unchanged m/m (+5.0% y/y) after rises of 0.6% in August and 1.3% in July.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales rose 0.7% (-1.2% y/y) in September, the fourth m/m rise in five months, after a 1.2% increase in August. Food & beverage store sales climbed 0.4% (0.9% y/y) after a 0.2% August gain and declines of 0.2% in July and June.

Consumers appeared to dine out more frequently in September despite still-elevated inflation (September CPI +0.6% m/m, +3.7% y/y; core CPI +0.3% m/m, +2.6% y/y). Restaurant & drinking place sales gained 1.1% (7.0% y/y) in September, the eighth straight m/m rise, after an upwardly revised 1.4% increase in August.

Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total retail sales +0.8% (+6.3% y/y) in Sept.; seventh m/m increase in eight mths.
- Ex-auto sales +0.9% (+7.2% y/y), second straight m/m rise; auto sales +0.2% (+2.5% y/y), fourth gain in five mths.
- Ex-gas sales +0.2% (+4.5% y/y) and ex-auto & gas sales +0.2% (+5.0% y/y); both up m/m from Feb. through Sept. except July.
- Retail control group +0.1% (+4.7% y/y), seventh m/m rise in eight mths., capping a firm Q3 ’26 for underlying consumer demand.
- Gains m/m: gasoline stations (+6.4%), department stores (+1.6%), furniture stores (+1.3%), food svcs. (+1.1%).
- Declines m/m: misc. stores (-3.0%), building materials & garden equipt. (-0.6%), sporting goods (-0.5%), general merch. (-0.1%).

U.S. Retail Sales Rise in September, Above Forecasts

Michael J. Moran

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The consumer price index for September (published yesterday) made for unpleasant reading (up 0.6% overall and 0.3% excluding food and energy), but the producer price index was downright nasty. The headline index rose 1.3%, a far cry from the expectation of 0.5%, and prices excluding food and energy rose 0.7% (versus an expectation of 0.3%). The latest changes left the year-over-year increase in the headline measure at 6.3% and the index excluding food and energy at 5.0%. Both measures posted their sharpest year-over-year changes since December 2022, when inflation was decelerating from the burst in 2021–22.

Analysts were expecting pressure on energy prices, but they probably got more than they bargained for, as this component jumped 10.8%. The surge exceeded the jump of 10.5% in March, when the initial effects of the war with Iran became evident. As in other recent months, changes in petroleum-based energy prices (gasoline, diesel, heating oil) accounted for most of the increase, but prices for natural gas liquids and residential electricity added to the mix with jumps of 14.6% and 1.4%, respectively.

Food prices provided a surprise with an increase of 1.2%. However, this change was not especially troubling, as most of the pressure was the result of food destined for export (4.3%). Consumer food prices also rose sharply in September (0.8%), but this area has been calm for some time, with the year-over-year change showing a decline of 0.9% even with the latest jump.

Producer prices excluding food and energy (0.7%) reflected pressure in both the goods and services sectors. Core goods prices rose 0.3% in September, a reading comfortably within the recent range, but that range has involved several high-side readings. The year-over-year increase of 5.1% was unsettling. This pace is a touch lower than the recent highs of 5.2% in May and June, but otherwise it is the fastest since February 2023, when inflation was decelerating.

The service component of the PPI is volatile, and thus interpretation can be difficult. Recent readings, though, involve noticeable pressure. The September change totaled 0.8%, a reading at the upper end of the recent range. The frequent high-side readings left a year-over-year increase of 4.9%, a touch below the recent high of 5.0% in April, but otherwise the highest since 5.2% in December 2022.

The CPI and the price index for personal consumption expenditures will most likely dominate the discussion of inflation at the Federal Reserve, but the PPI is not irrelevant. Recent results suggest that an inflation impulse is evident in the economy.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Results exceed expectations by wide margins.
- Yr/Yr percent changes were the sharpest since December 2022.

September PPI: High-Side Readings on Food and Energy; Uncomfortable increase in Core

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up 1,000 to 199,000 in the week ending October 10, from 198,000 in the week ending October 3, revised from 197,000. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 200,000 claims to have been filed. The four-week moving average was 198,500 in the October 10 week, up from 198,250 in the October 3 week, revised from 198,000.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—fell by 4,000 to 1.710 million in the week ending October 3, from 1.714 million in the week of September 26, revised down from 1.716 million. The four-week moving average was 1.709 million in the October 3 week versus 1.711 million in the prior week. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.1% in the week of October 3.

In the week ending September 26, no state had an insured unemployment rate above 2.00%; the highest was in New Jersey (1.99%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.21%), Louisiana (0.29%), Florida (0.32%), Alabama (0.33%), North Carolina and North Dakota (both 0.35%), Arkansas (0.38%), Kentucky (0.41%), Iowa and Tennessee (both 0.42%), Kansas (0.43%), Nebraska (0.45%), Idaho and Wyoming (both 0.46%), Georgia and New Hampshire (both 0.48%), and Virginia (0.49%). Among other notable states, the rate was 0.96% in Texas, 1.20% in Pennsylvania, 1.32% in Illinois, 1.42% in New York, and 1.73% in California. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims rose by 1,000 to 199,000 in the week of October 10.
- Continuing claims fell by 4,000 to 1.710 million in the week ending October 3.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.1% in the week of October 3.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Rose in the Week of October 10

Robert Brusca

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Industrial and manufacturing output in the European Monetary Union remains under intense downward pressure. The chart that plots the individual sectors highlights year-over-year growth rates. It shows that consumer goods output continues to contract at a pace that is not healthy. Intermediate goods output has basically been at a point of stasis for the last year. Capital goods output continues to be the only robust part of the industrial economy; it shows persistent increases in output since the first quarter of 2025.

**Monthly output**
The monthly changes showed declines in overall industrial production of 0.5% in August. The decline in manufacturing was 0.4% in August; by sector, consumer goods output declined by 2.4% month-to-month, intermediate goods output declined by 0.8%, while capital goods increased 0.4%. Within the consumer sector, consumer durables had a small output increase of 0.2%, with nondurables output falling by 0.8% month-to-month.

**Sequential growth**
The sequential growth rates delineate growth over 12 months, six months, and three months, showing some weakness over each of those spans, with output falling by 1.2% over 12 months, being flat over six months, and declining at a 3.6% annual rate over three months. Manufacturing shows a similar trend, with a decline of 1.6% over 12 months, a decline at a 0.2% annual rate over six months, and a decline at a 4% annual rate over three months.

**By sector**: The sequential growth rates show declines in consumer output over 12 months, six months, and three months, with weaker growth over three months than over 12 months. For the subsector, consumer nondurables follow the same pattern and trend; so, do intermediate goods. Capital goods are a departure. They show a 1.9% increase over 12 months, a 1.6% annualized increase over six months, and a 2.6% annual rate decline over three months. Next, the only sector showing persisting increases is durable goods within the consumer sector. It shows output up 0.2% over 12 months, rising at a 2.4% annual rate over six months, and accelerating to a 5.3% annual rate over three months. The trends that we see in the headline are echoed in most of the components, which tend to show output declines over 12 months, some moderation over six months, and then an acceleration of weakness over three months. Capital goods also break that pattern by showing persisting deceleration in output growth trends from 12 months to six months to three months.

**Quarter-to-date output**: QTD output is falling in all sectors except for consumer durables. The headline shows a 2.7% annual rate decline; manufacturing is at a 3.5% annual rate drop. There is still one month’s worth of data needed to fill out the third quarter.

**Annual growth rate ranking**: Growth rates generally are weak. We rank the growth rates on a 20-year timeline back to 2006. The headline series—total industrial production excluding construction and manufacturing—have rankings for year-over-year output growth in their 28th and 25th percentiles, respectively. Consumer goods output for the entire sector has been weaker only 1.7% of the time on this timeline, with most of that weakness due to consumer nondurables output, which has been weaker only 1.3% of the time. Consumer durable goods output is above its median with a 55.5 percentile standing. Capital goods are the only other sector above the 50th percentile, with a 51.7 percentile standing. Intermediate goods come close, with a 48.3 percentile standing, annual growth that is barely below its historic median on this timeline.

**Member country trends**
The table also presents results for 13 European monetary union member countries and for the United Kingdom and Sweden, as fellow European economies. EMU members show an unweighted average decline across this group of countries of 0.5% for output in August, a weakening from a 0.2% median increase in July and weaker than a 0.1% median gain in June. These countries have median declines of 0.1% over 12 months, 1.5% over six months, and 5.6% over three months. Quarter-to-date, the unweighted average for the group is a 7.5% decline for manufacturing output. Also, the average rank standing for EMU manufacturing growth on the timeline from 2006, as an unweighted average, has a 44.5 percentile standing, below its historic median, which puts it below median by about 6 percentage points. The only countries above their respective medians for year-over-year growth on that timeline are the Netherlands with a 97.5 percentile standing, Greece with an 86.1 percentile standing, Malta with a 69.3 percentile standing, and Spain, whose result is right on top of its median with a 50th percentile standing. There are additional five countries with percentile standings in their 40th percentile, including Finland, Italy, France, Germany, and Austria.

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**Summing up**
On balance, this is a weak report with output on weakening trends in most countries. In August, output is accelerating in only 38.5% of the countries. Compared to one year ago, output is accelerating at 61.5% of the member countries. Over six months compared to 12 months, there is acceleration in only 15.4% of the countries. Over three months compared to six months, there is acceleration in 23.1% of these reporting countries. Inflation, for the most part, remains high. The ECB appears to be still raising interest rates, and energy prices remain high amid the Middle East war. It shows no signs of increased predictability, let alone any hints of good news.

Europe

EMU IP Weakness Intensifies

Jonathan Basile

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The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% month-over-month (MoM) in September. Historically speaking, how rare is a 0.6% MoM increase? Monthly gains of 0.6% or larger took place about 15% of the time in the postwar period; that number drops to a 3% hit rate since 2000. More recently, there were twelve occurrences in 2021 (after the COVID-19 pandemic) and 2022 (after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine). For 2026, besides September, there were two others at the onset of the Iran War in March and April 2026.

Energy was a big part of the sequential performance, while food was not. The CPI for energy increased 5.2% in September following a 2.1% rise in August. Gasoline was a significant mover, posted a 9.1% MoM advance. This accounted “for over half of the monthly all items increase,” according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The CPI food index registered a flat reading in September, the first unchanged reading since March. The tame showing was generated by a 0.1% MoM decrease in Food at home, the second monthly drop in the last three months, while Food away from home rose at a lesser 0.2% MoM after back-to-back 0.3% gains.

Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% MoM in September matching August’s rise. Price pressures were propped up by both core goods (up 0.3% MoM from 0.1%) and core services (up 0.4% MoM versus 0.3%). The 0.3% core beat market expectations for a 0.2% increase and lifted probably for a Fed rate hike at the October 28th meeting to 44% from last Friday’s low of 17%.

On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, CPI inflation came in at 3.7%, up from the prior month’s 3.4%. CPI has posted a YoY inflation rate above 3% for the last seven months ended September. This hasn’t happened since the seven months ended May 2024. Core CPI inflation edged up to 2.6% YoY in September from 2.4% YoY in August. While core remains in a down channel of lower highs and lower lows, it remained above the key 2% level for the 65th month running. The last time core CPI inflation had a string above 2% for a similar duration, it was the latter half of the 1990s.

Core services inflation is to blame as it stubbornly stayed north of the 3% mark in September (at 3.1% YoY). After persistent easing from the post-pandemic peak to the 2.9% YoY rates in January/February 2026, no further progress has been made to the downside. Core goods inflation, on the other hand, has grinded lower to 0.7% YoY rates in both August and September, less than half the 1.5% YoY figures reported in August and September 2025.

Shelter is a key reason why core CPI inflation isn’t back in line with the Fed’s target rate. When shelter is excluded from the core, the underlying inflation picture is tepid. September’s 2.0% YoY rate echoed August’s, and June’s and July’s respective 2.1% and 1.9% YoY rates averaged 2.0%. These non-threatening results present a compelling argument against Fed tightening over the balance of the year.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Energy drives headline gain.
- Food prices tame.
- Core shows underlying price pressures in both goods and services.

U.S. Consumer Price Index: Energy and Core Pressures Keep Fed Tightening Debate Active

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Mortgage applications fell 2.7% w/w (-37.2% y/y) in the week ending October 9 for the sixth consecutive week, after declining 4.2% w/w (-36.6% y/y) in the week ending October 2, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 4.0% w/w (-16.1% y/y) in the latest week, after declining 2.1% w/w (-14.9% y/y) in the October 2 week. Applications for loan refinancing edged down 0.4% w/w (-56.0% y/y) in the October 9 week following a decline of 7.5% w/w (-56.3% y/y) in the October 2 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged up 2bps to 7.75% in the week ending October 9 from 7.73% in the week ending October 2, remaining at its highest level since November 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 12bps to 7.09% in the October 9 week from 6.97% in the October 2 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate increased 15bps to 7.69% in the latest week from 7.54% in the October 2 week, while the rate on a 5-year ARM declined 9bps to 6.96% in the October 9 week from 7.05% in the October 2 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 37.7% of total applications in the week of October 9 from 37.0% in the week ending October 2. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 10.5% in the latest week from 10.3% in the October 2 week.

The average size of a mortgage fell 2.0% w/w (-7.5% y/y) to $370,200 in the week ending October 9, after declining 1.7% w/w (-5.1% y/y) to $377,700 in the week ending October 2. The average size of a purchase loan declined 0.8% w/w to $444,700 in the October 9 week after falling 0.6% w/w to $448,400 in the October 2 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage fell 3.9% w/w to $247,200 in the week ending October 9 after declining 7.0% w/w to $257,200 in the October 2 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing both declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans edged up 2bps to 7.75%.
- Average loan size fell moderately in the October 9 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fell in the October 9 Week

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The inflation chart and the table are unanimous on the inflation verdict for the European Monetary Union in September. No matter how you twist and turn it, unless you turn the chart upside down, there's no good news here on the inflation front.

**A really bad month for inflation, but not a surprise, part of a trend**
The monthly news is bad for the aggregate data. The monetary union inflation level, for both the headline and the core readings, looks worrying. Across the four largest economies, the monthly data are quite bad for the headline figures and not very good for the core or the ex-energy readings either.

**Trending higher**
The chart just sticks to year-over-year percentage changes. It doesn't get knee-deep in different sequential measures, but it's clear from the chart that year-over-year inflation is once again engaged in an upswing, and the year-over-year gains for each of the four largest countries are above the 2% mark that the European Central Bank has set for the community. While the ECB target is for the whole community, not for any individual country, with all four of the largest economies showing this kind of an excess, it clearly indicates bad news for the community at large.

**Sequential pressure**
The data in the table provide information on the sequential development of inflation. There we see the headline from 12 months to six months to three months, as we shorten the horizon, with accelerating trends from 3.8% over 12 months to 4% over six months to 6.5% over three months, all annualized rates. The core is better behaved but still shows acceleration from 2.5% over 12 months to 2.7% over six months to 3% over three months. Acceleration is the watchword.

**Large economies adverse trends**
Looking at individual members, the four largest economies show us excessive increases in September month to month, ranging from a 1% gain in Italy to a 0.5% gain in Germany. Sequential inflation shows acceleration for each of the large foreign economies, which is by itself rather disturbing, but the year-over-year rates are as low as 3.3% for Germany and as high as 5% for Spain, and with the three-month rates as low as, and let me repeat this–as low as–a 5.5% annual rate over three months in Italy and as high as a 9.1% annual rate for Spain. This is a very painful habitat for inflation over three months to range from 5.5% to 9.1% when the target is 2%.

**Inflation metrics**
There are three metrics for inflation: headline, core inflation, and ex-energy inflation. These numbers are a little more subdued but still over the top in terms of the ECB target of 2%. The month-to-month numbers are not as chilling, with Germany showing an ex-energy increase of just 0.2% and Spain showing 0.4% at the high end in September. But the sequential numbers show 12-month gains of 2.2% inflation in Germany ex-energy, a 1.5% gain in Italy, which leaves it below the ECB’s desired pace, and a 3.1% increase over 12 months in Spain. These core or ex-energy speeds step up over six months and then step up again over three months. Acceleration is broad-based. Over three months, we see a low pace of 2.4% for Italy, a high pace of 3.7% for Spain, with Germany at 2.6%. Progressing from 12 months to six months to three months, we lose the temperate inflation in Italy, which over three months moves up over the 2% mark, and we log inflation rates of 2.6% in Germany and 3.7% in Spain. The core inflation is lower than headline inflation by a good solid margin. In each of these cases, headline inflation over three months is at least twice the core (or ex-energy) three-month pace. However, core inflation is generally more stubborn and harder to get rid of. In the case of Germany, ex-energy inflation is at 2.6%; Italy logs a 2.4% pace. Those two are not too far above the 2% target, but Spain at 3.7% is much more troublesome.

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**Ubiquitous inflation**
These figures come out at the same time that the U.S. CPI has given us another unpleasant surprise and has shown more pressure in its headline and in its core as the Federal Reserve is getting prepared to meet later this month. Inflation clearly has become a global problem, and that can't help but make us wonder what the underlying cause is.

**The Blame Game**
The simple knee-jerk reaction is to blame it on oil prices, and that's certainly a good amount of it. Brent oil prices measured in euros rose by 3.3% in September, and year-over-year Brent oil prices are up by 31.6%. Clearly, oil has been cooking in the background. That's going to increase the headline inflation rates everywhere and in some cases by more depending on the exchange rate effect of translating oil from dollars into local currency units. But it's not just as simple as that. Unemployment rates globally are low, fiscal deficits are high, and the levels of fiscal debt are generally high and troubling. That's true in the United States, that's true in Japan, it's true in France, and it's true in the United Kingdom and other places. Germany has managed to keep its debt and deficits more restrained. But when we talk about inflation, we're talking about not just the forces that are currently at work, but we also have to talk about expectations for the future. One problem is that the oil prices relate to the war in the Middle East, and that remains as unsettled as ever. There are also some knock-on effects on the war between Ukraine and Russia where the U.S. has tried to bully Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil facilities. Still, there's no assurance about the future or about oil prices. When are they going to transmit something more favorable to inflation in the future? There are also supply chain effects and then of course the concerns about the large fiscal deficits and not only the funding pressure that deficits put on markets and the load that places on interest rates but also the potential risk that it creates for central banks to step back to inflate their debt burdens away.

**The Future**
It's pretty clear this month that inflation has become a problem. It's a problem with legs, and it's a problem that's severe enough, and supported by various causes and themes, enough to make us worry about the impact on expectations and therefore of inflation on future inflation. Unless central bankers or fiscal authorities do things to eradicate inflation and the factors that are raising concerns about inflation in the future, we face some difficult times ahead.

Inflation in EMU Spikes. Yikes!

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Existing home sales rose 1.5% m/m (-2.2% y/y) to 3.99 million units (SAAR) in September, the first monthly increase since May, after a 3.2% decline to 3.93 million in August (previously -2.0%; 3.98 mil.), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Despite the latest m/m gain, August and September marked the two slowest months for home sales in 2026. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected September sales of 3.96 million units. Sales were 2.3% above a low of 3.90 million in September 2024 but 37.9% below a high of 6.43 million in January 2022 and 39.5% below a peak of 6.60 million in January 2021. The September gain coincided with a rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.86%, the highest since January 2025, after increasing to 6.67% in August, according to Freddie Mac. The sales figures are based on closings of sales contracts signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales rebounded 2.0% (-1.9% y/y) to 3.64 million units in September, the first m/m rise in four months, following a 3.3% decrease to 3.57 million in August, still 36.1% below a high of 5.70 million in January 2022. Sales of condos and co-ops fell 2.8% (-5.4% y/y) to 350,000 in September, matching the lowest level since May 2020, after registering at 360,000 in August and at 370,000 from February through July, remaining 52.1% below a high of 730,000 in January 2022.

Regionally, September existing home sales showed a mixed performance. Sales in the South rose 2.8% (-0.5% y/y) to 1.86 million in September, the first m/m increase since May, after a 3.2% decline in August. Sales in the West grew 2.8% (-5.2% y/y) to 730,000, the highest level since June, after falling 1.4% in August and July. Sales in the Northeast fell 2.1% (-4.1% y/y) to 470,000, the lowest level since May, on top of a 4.0% August slide. Meanwhile, sales in the Midwest held steady m/m (-2.1% y/y) at 930,000 after a 4.1% August drop, matching the lowest reading since March. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 46.6% of total U.S. existing home sales.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) fell 2.4% (+1.3% y/y) to $417,500 in September, the lowest since April, after a 2.0% decrease to $427,700 in August ($429,100 previously). Prices remained 15.7% above a low of $360,800 in January 2023. The median price of an existing single-family home slid 2.5% (+1.2% y/y) to $422,700 in September following a 2.0% decline to $433,600 in August. Both prices posted the third successive m/m fall and the lowest level since April. The median price of condos and co-ops, down for the third consecutive month, slipped 1.7% (+1.2% y/y) to $363,700, the lowest since February, after a 1.3% August decrease to $370,000. Regionally, overall prices fell m/m in September in the Midwest (-3.9%; +3.1% y/y), Northeast (-3.4%; +4.7% y/y), South (-1.4%; +0.2% y/y), and West (-0.9%; -0.3% y/y).

Inventories of homes for sale advanced to the highest level since November 2019. The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) climbed 1.9% (4.6% y/y) to 1.60 million units in September after registering at 1.57 million during the May to August period. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) held at 4.8 months in September and August, the highest level since November 2015, up from 4.6 months in July and June. A record low in supply of 1.6 months was in January 2022.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- September sales +1.5% m/m to 3.99 mil., first m/m rise since May; -2.2% y/y, second straight y/y drop.
- Sales m/m up in the South (+2.8%) and West (+2.8%); down in the Northeast (-2.1%); flat in the Midwest.
- Sales y/y down in all four regions, w/ the steepest decline in the West (-5.2%).
- Median sales price -2.4% (+1.3% y/y) to $417,500, lowest since April.
- Unsold inventory +1.9% (+4.6% y/y) to 1.60 mil. units, highest level since Nov. ’19; 4.8 months' supply, highest since Nov. ’15.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Rebound in September

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The Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo fell 9.4% m/m to 29 in October following an 8.6% decrease to 32 in September (unrevised) and a 2.9% increase to 35 in August (unrevised), indicating a further deterioration in homebuilder sentiment and overall housing-market conditions. October marked the fourth m/m fall in five months and the lowest level since June 2012. The year-on-year rate decelerated to -21.6% in October, the deepest y/y decline since September 2025, from 0.0% in September (-14.0% in October 2025). The HMI had remained below the breakeven 50 level since May 2024. The October index, lower than 37 in October 2025, was 48.2% below a high of 56 in July 2023 and 67.8% below a record-high 90 in November 2020.

Notably, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate held at 7.40% in the weeks of October 15 and October 8, remaining the highest since the week of November 16, 2023, compared to 6.86% during all of September, according to Freddie Mac. The rate was above its recent low of 5.98% in the February 26 week but below a peak of 7.79% in the week of October 26, 2023.

All three HMI components declined this month. The index of present single-family sales conditions slid 5.7% (-15.4% y/y) to 33 in October, the fourth m/m slide in five months and the lowest level since June 2012, after a 10.3% decrease to 35 in September. The index was 46.8% below a high of 62 in July 2023 and 65.6% below a record-high 96 in November 2020. The index of expected single-family sales for the next six months dropped 13.5% (-40.7% y/y) to 32, the third m/m fall in four months and the weakest level since November 2022, after a 14.0% September drop to 37. The index was 51.5% below a high of 66 in December 2024 and 64.0% below a record-high 89 in November 2020. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers plunged 21.7% (-28.0% y/y) to 18, the lowest reading since April 2020, after holding at 23 in September, August and July. The index was 55.0% below a high of 40 in July 2023 and 76.6% below a record-high 77 in November 2020.

By region, the HMIs were down m/m in the West, Midwest and South this month, while up in the Northeast. The index for the West plummeted 33.3% (-35.5% y/y) to 20 in October, the first m/m decline since July and the lowest level since December 2011, reversing a 7.1% rise to 30 in September. The index for the Midwest tumbled 12.5% (-16.7% y/y) to 35, the lowest level since January 2024, after an 11.1% September fall to 40. The index for the South fell 6.9% (-22.9% y/y) to 27, matching its weakest level since June 2012, following a 12.1% September slide to 29. In contrast, the index for the Northeast rebounded 5.7% (-32.7% y/y) to 37 in October following a 16.7% drop to 35 in September.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low". The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The regional indexes run back to December 2004.

These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The Informa Global Markets survey is in Haver's **MMSAMER** database.

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- HMI weakens m/m for the fourth time in five mths. in Oct., indicating most builders remain pessimistic about the current and near-term housing outlook.
- All three HMI components down, w/ the steepest m/m drop in prospective buyer traffic (-21.7%).
- Mixed regional performance m/m: down in the West (-33.3%), Midwest (-12.5%) and South (-6.9%); up in the Northeast (+5.7%).

U.S. Housing Market Index Drops in October to Lowest Level Since June 2012

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**TRANSPRT** → Port Statistics by Country → **South Korea** → Trade by Port

Port statistics for South Korea were added to the **TRANSPRT** database. Nearly all trade in South Korea moves by sea, as it is effectively an island economy since North Korea closes off all land routes. Exports and imports in USD and in metric tons were added for 44 ports around the country. Monthly data sourced from the Korea International Trade Association start as early as January 1988.

Chart: Busan is Korea’s oldest, largest and one of the busiest container ports in the world. By the 1990s, container volumes and ship sizes were outgrowing its terminals. Korea needed more modern, larger-scale capacity if it was to reach its goal of becoming a NE Asian transshipment hub. Busan New Port was developed with its deep water, large modern terminals and better road and rail connections. Some capacity did move from the old to the new port, but the net effect was increased capacity of roughly 15-20% in value terms. Approximately 30 billion USD worth of goods currently flow in and out of the Busan Port complex on a monthly basis.

- The RPLS were added for the US to **USECON** and by state in **REGIONAL**.
- Port statistics for South Korea were added to the **TRANSPRT** database.
- Iron and steel production statistics for Argentina were added to the **GLSECTOR** database.

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