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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

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Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Winnie Tapasanun

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New single-family home sales fell 1.7% m/m (+3.8% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 745,000 units in December—above expectations—following a 15.5% jump to 758,000 in November and a downwardly revised 8.8% drop to 656,000 in October (previously -0.1%, 737,000), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected sales of 733,000 for December. The December figure was the second m/m decline in three months, though sales remained 43.5% above the July 2022 low of 519,000. For all of 2025, new home sales declined 0.5% after gains of 3.0% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2023. The December m/m sales fall occurred alongside a decrease in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.20%, the lowest since September 2024, down from 6.24% in November and 6.72% in December 2024; the rate had subsequently continued trending downward, according to Freddie Mac.

By region, December new home sales delivered a mixed performance. Sales in the Northeast plunged 37.3% (+12.1% y/y) to 37,000 in December following a 37.2% gain in November, registering the lowest level since September and the steepest m/m decline since February 2023. Sales in the South fell 6.7% (-1.1% y/y) to 430,000, the first m/m fall in three months, after a 10.0% November gain. To the upside, sales in the Midwest jumped 31.7% (30.1% y/y) to 108,000 after a 2.4% November decline, marking the largest m/m gain since January 2024 and the highest level since December 2020. Sales in the West, up for the fourth time in five months, rose 9.0% (1.8% y/y) to a three-month-high 170,000 on top of a 41.8% November surge. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 57.7% of total U.S. new home sales.

The median sales price of a new home rose 4.2% (-2.0% y/y) to a three-month-high $414,400 in December, the first m/m rise in four months, following a 1.4% decline to $397,600 in November (the lowest since July 2025). The median sales price was 10.0% below its record high of $460,300 in October 2022. The average sales price of a new home, up for the third straight month, rose 0.5% (4.7% y/y) to $532,600, the highest since July 2022, after a 1.7% November increase to $530,200. The average price was 1.6% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market fell 2.7% (-3.5% y/y) to 472,000 in December after a 1.0% decline to 485,000 in November, representing the sixth m/m fall in seven months and the lowest level since August 2024. The latest figure was 10.8% above a low of 426,000 in July 2023. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale dipped to 7.6 months in December—the lowest reading since July 2023—after falling to 7.7 months in November. The latest reading, while above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023, remained below a high of 10.6 months in July 2022.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market rose to 3.0 months in December, the highest since April 2022, after rising to 2.9 months in November. The latest number was above its record low of 1.5 months in September and October 2022 but well below a peak of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- December sales -1.7% m/m (+3.8% y/y) to 745,000; still 43.5% above the July ’22 low.
- Sales m/m down the Northeast (-37.3%) and South (-6.7%), but up in the Midwest (+31.7%) and West (+9.0%).
- Median sales price up to a three-month-high $414,400; avg. price up to $532,600, highest since July ’22.
- Months' supply eases to 7.6 mths., lowest since July ’23.

U.S. New Home Sales Decline in December After November’s Jump

Robert Brusca

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PMI data for February, issued by S&P on a flash basis, show relatively broad improvement PMI performance in February, with the exception of Australia, India, and the United States. The European Monetary Union shows improvement in its composite index as well as for manufacturing and services. This pushed to higher ratings, supported by Germany and France with the exception that French manufacturing took a step back in February. In the United Kingdom, the composite and manufacturing indexes moved ahead but services weakened. In Japan, the composite, manufacturing and services all improved on a month-to-month basis. However, Australia saw a step back in all three sectors after several months of continued strengthening. India also saw a step back in the composite and services after a recent string of improvements being reported. The United States shows uneven conditions, with a weakening across the board month-to-month in February vs. an across-the-board rebound in January, and then across-the-board weakening in December. This leaves the U.S. in a weakening and volatile situation

An unweighted average of the monthly composite, manufacturing, and services indexes shows a one-tick step back for the composite, a small step up for manufacturing, and a small step back in services for February compared to January.  January had made across the board improvements relative to December.

Sequential comparisons where data are lagged by one month and the calculations are made only off of hard data (not off of flash or preliminary data) show mixed economic conditions and unclear trends. EMU shows sequential strengthening in the composite as do France and Japan; Japan also shows persistent strengthening in manufacturing, as the yen has been dropping. And while there is a lot of weakening sequentially, there is no persistent weakening reported for 12-months to 6-months to 3-months.

Over three months, there's a split in what is reported with 12 of the 24 sectors weakening compared to six months ago and 12 of them strengthening. Over six months, only six of the sectors are weakening; the remainder strengthening over 12 months; eight of the sectors are weakening over 12 months compared to a year ago, with the remainder strengthening. While it's not a clear path to deterioration, there is a clear tendency to deterioration over three months compared to six months. However, an unweighted comparison of the three sectors shows that composite manufacturing and services still demonstrate a bit of muddy water with the composites weakening over three months only by a tick to 52.9 compared to 53 while manufacturing improves slightly and services weakens slightly compared to six months. Over six months, there's only a slight step back from the statistics reported over 12 months.

**Not a lot of shifting, but some good news and bad news**
The bottom line is there's not a whole lot of change going on according to the PMI data. On a breadth basis, there has been some improvement, but the magnitudes involved seem to wash out some of that improvement, neutralizing when expressing as average comparisons. However, one place where there does appear to be evidence of more solid performance is in the queue percentile standings. Among these 8 reporters involving 24 sectors, only four sectors report current standings below their median on data back to January 2022. One of those countries is India, with a weaker composite and services sector; the other is the United States, with a weaker composite and services sector. The U.S. composite has a queue percentile standing at its 42nd percentile, below its neutral position of 50%. The U.S. services sector is even weaker with a 36-percentile standing, close to the lower third of all the U.S. PMI values that have shown for services since 2022 on a monthly basis.

U.S. economy has been cranking out some reasonably strong economic numbers across the board including consumer spending and GDP figures, allowing for a disappointing fourth quarter that is being attributed to the government shutdown. However, what's been lacking on the U.S. side has been strong job market performance and, of course, because of mortgage rates being high, there has been a weak construction sector in the U.S. economy. Still, the queue standing across the board for other countries should be reassuring. The average composite ranking for this group of countries is in the 70th percentile, with manufacturing in the 75th percentile and services in their 61st percentile. These are relatively firm readings and should be reassuring. At the same time, central banks have made progress on inflation and tightening cycles have not been engaged or easing cycles are being extended for all central banks except for the Bank of Japan, which has been experiencing growth and inflation in different measures from the rest of the G7 countries. On balance, however, global growth appears to be moving forward and now we'll have to see what happens with the U.S. Supreme Court having overthrown the imposition of tariffs that the Trump administration put in place without Congressional backing. We could see some considerable shifting in the months ahead.

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S&P PMIs Are Mostly Stronger in February

Andrew Cates

**The US risk premium** 
Over the past three months, global equities excluding the US have outperformed the S&P 500, while the broad US dollar index has edged lower — a subtle but potentially meaningful shift in market dynamics. After several years of US exceptionalism driven heavily by a narrow group of AI-exposed mega-cap stocks, investors appear increasingly sensitive to elevated US valuations, geopolitical noise and questions about how much of the AI upside is already priced in. The combination of relative US equity underperformance and a softer dollar suggests a modest rise in the US risk premium and a gradual rotation of capital toward the rest of the world. It is far from a wholesale reversal, but it does hint that the automatic bid for US assets may no longer be quite as unquestioned as it once was.

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**Bank lending growth**
A key pillar underpinning the still-upbeat tone in global equity markets is the turn in the monetary cycle. As this chart shows, bank lending growth has begun to firm again across several major economies, most notably in the US and Japan, while the euro area has stabilised after last year’s contraction. Recent and prospective rate cuts — alongside earlier liquidity support — are now feeding through into credit creation. Stronger bank lending flows suggest that financial conditions are no longer tightening and may, in fact, be becoming more supportive of activity. For equity investors, this matters: improving credit momentum reinforces the view that the global economy can avoid a hard landing and that policy easing will cushion growth, helping to justify still-elevated valuations.

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**US productivity growth and AI**
Turning to productivity, the recent improvement in US labour productivity is striking — but its composition matters. As the chart shows, much of the acceleration has coincided with a sharp rise in capital input, reflecting the surge in AI-related infrastructure spending: data centres, semiconductors and high-performance computing. In other words, what we are seeing is primarily a capital-deepening effect — the production of AI — rather than clear evidence that the widespread use of AI is yet transforming efficiency across the broader economy. Total factor productivity, the cleaner measure of underlying technological progress, has not exhibited a sustained breakout. That does not invalidate the AI story — diffusion lags are typical with general-purpose technologies — but it does suggest that markets may be extrapolating productivity gains that have yet to show up convincingly in the data.

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**Industrial production in Advanced Asian economies versus the RoW**
If the productivity story in the US is being driven by the production of AI infrastructure, the industrial production data show where much of the early stages of that production process is physically taking place. Advanced Asia excluding Japan has clearly outperformed, with industrial output rising markedly relative to both the US and the euro area. This divergence neatly reflects the region’s central role in the semiconductor and electronics supply chain — from advanced chip fabrication in Taiwan and Korea to high-end components across the broader region. As AI-related capital expenditure has surged, demand for chips, servers and related hardware has provided a powerful cyclical boost to manufacturing activity in these economies. In that sense, Asia is not merely a passive beneficiary of the AI boom; it sits at its industrial core, supplying the physical backbone of the global AI build-out.

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**US manufacturing orders of high-tech products**
The strength in advanced Asia’s industrial production is mirrored by developments in the United States, where new orders for computers and electronic products have continued to climb steadily. As the chart shows, US manufacturers’ orders for high-tech goods — a category that includes semiconductors, communications equipment and other AI-related hardware — have risen to fresh highs in recent months. This reinforces the view that the AI investment cycle remains firmly intact, with strong upstream demand for chips and electronic components feeding through both sides of the Pacific supply chain.

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**Portfolio flows in Emerging Markets**
Capital flows are beginning to reflect that same industrial divergence. Emerging market equity inflows have turned more supportive in recent months, with Emerging Asia accounting for a meaningful share of the rebound. This aligns closely with the strength in industrial production across advanced Asia ex Japan, where AI-related demand for semiconductors and hardware has lifted manufacturing momentum. Investors appear increasingly willing to allocate capital toward economies most directly embedded in the AI supply chain. In that sense, the AI infrastructure cycle is not only reshaping trade and production patterns — it is also influencing global portfolio flows, reinforcing Asia’s central role in the current technology-driven upswing.

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Recent weeks have seen renewed market swings — a softer US dollar, rotation within equities and shifting rate expectations — as investors reassess valuations, policy risks and the durability of US exceptionalism. Yet a consistent macro thread runs through our charts this week. Global equities continued to outperform the US, hinting at a modest rise in the US risk premium alongside AI-valuation concerns (chart 1). At the same time, firmer bank lending growth across major economies reflects looser monetary policy and arguably helps explain why risk assets remain broadly supported despite volatility (chart 2). On productivity, a US pickup is evident but likely reflects capital deepening from AI infrastructure rather than a decisive surge in total factor productivity (chart 3). Industrial production in advanced Asia reinforces where that build-out is concentrated — at the heart of the semiconductor supply chain (chart 4) — while strong US orders for computers and electronic products underline the intensity of domestic demand for high-tech and AI-related equipment (chart 5). Finally, renewed equity inflows into Emerging Asia show investors positioning around this AI-centric growth dynamic (chart 6). In short, easier policy and AI-driven investment are sustaining momentum — but the breadth and durability of the productivity dividend remain a key open question.

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Charts of the Week: AI, Policy Easing and a Shifting Risk Premium

Sandy Batten

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) widened to $70.3 billion in December from a downwardly revised $53.0 billion in November (previously $56.8 billion), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The goods deficit increased markedly to $99.3 billion from a downwardly revised $83.6 billion in November (previously $86.9 billion) while the services surplus narrowed slightly to $29.0 billion from $30.6 billion (previously $30.1 billion). The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a deficit of $55.5 billion.

The real (inflation-adjusted) trade deficit in goods widened to $97.1 billion (2017$) in December from $84.5 billion in November (previously $87.1 billion). However, for all of the fourth quarter, the real deficit narrowed to $245.0 billion from $261.6 billion in Q3. This suggests that trade contributed around 0.5%-point to overall GDP growth in Q4. Q4 GDP will be released tomorrow, December 20.

Exports of goods and services fell 1.7% m/m (+6.3% y/y) in December on top of a 3.4% monthly decline in November. Goods exports (Census basis) dropped 3.0% m/m in December following a 5.2% m/m decline in November. The December decline was led by a 14.5% m/m fall in exports of “other goods,” the fourth monthly decline in five months. Exports of industrial supplies and materials slumped 12.3% m/m on top of an 8.0% m/m decline in November. The $8.7-billion December drop in industrial supplies exports was almost completely accounted for by a $7.1 billion decline in nonmonetary gold exports. By contrast, exports of nonfood consumer goods excluding autos jumped 8.4% m/m in December and capital goods exports gained 4.2% m/m. Exports of services increased 0.4% m/m in December after a 0.2% monthly decline in November. The December gain was led by a 2.5% m/m increase in travel exports and a 1.6% m/m rise in transport exports.

Imports of goods and services increased 3.6% m/m (-2.6% y/y) in December on top of a 4.2% monthly jump in November. Goods imports (Census basis) rose 3.8% m/m on top of a 5.8% monthly jump in November. Imports of industrial supplies surged 15.9% m/m in December, more than reversing a 5.6% m/m decline in November. Capital goods imports increased 5.5% m/m, their third consecutive solid monthly gain. Auto imports rose 3.9% m/m in December, the first monthly increase in four months. By contrast, imports of nonfood consumer goods excluding autos fell 5.9% m/m, but this was after a 15.6% m/m surge in November. Imports of services rebounded in December, rising 2.7% m/m following a 1.3% m/m decline in November. Transport imports jumped 12.1% m/m, their first monthly gain in three months. Travel imports rose 2.4% m/m following a 1.6% monthly decline in November.

By country, the goods trade deficit with China narrowed to $12.4 billion in December from $14.4 billion in November. Exports to China rebounded in December, surging 26.5% m/m after slumping 20.1% m/m in November. Imports from China declined 2.0% m/m in December on top of 4.1% monthly decline in November. This was their fourth monthly decline in the past five months. The trade deficit with the European Union narrowed to $11.1 billion from $14.3 billion in November. The deficit with Japan widened to $5.3 billion from $4.7 billion in November.

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The overall deficit widened to $70.3 billion in December from $53.0 billion in November.
- The goods deficit widened markedly to $99.3 billion from $83.6 billion in November.
- The services surplus narrowed slightly to $29.0 billion from $30.6 billion in November.
- Exports fell 1.7% m/m on top of a 3.4% monthly decline in November while imports rose 3.6% m/m following a 4.2% gain in November.
- For all of Q4, the real goods trade balance narrowed, suggesting that trade contributed to overall GDP growth.

U.S. Trade Deficit Widened Much More Than Expected in December

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 23,000 to 206,000 in the week of February 14, from 229,000 in the week of February 7, revised from 227,000. The four-week average edged down 1,000 to 219,000 in the latest week from 220,000 in the prior week, revised from 219,500. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for 225,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—increased by 17,000 to 1.869 million in the week ending February 7 from 1.852 million in the week ending January 31, revised down 10,000 from 1.862 million. The four-week moving average stood at 1.845 million in the February 7 week, from 1.844 million in the January 31 week, revised from 1.847 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of February 7, unchanged from the previous ten weeks.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending January 31, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (3.01%), New Jersey (2.90%), Massachusetts (2.74%), Minnesota (2.60%), Washington (2.56%), Montana (2.18%), California (2.15%), Michigan (2.04%) and Oregon (2.01%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), Louisiana (0.39%), North Carolina (0.43%), Alabama (0.45%), Arkansas (0.46%), and Arizona (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include New York (2.24%), Illinois (2.17%), Pennsylvania (2.10%), and Texas (1.10%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims dropped by 23,000 to 206,000.
- Continuing claims rose by 17,000 to 1.869 million.
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% for the 11th consecutive week.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Declined in Latest Week

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Belgian consumer confidence slipped in February. But it has made a long climb back to positive territory and that reading is holding on at +1 in February, down from +4 in January.

Belgian consumer confidence has been slowing progressing from a reading of -4 twelve-months ago to -2 six-months ago and to +2 just three-months ago. This progression shows a trend of improvement under way for the Belgian consumer.

Also, importantly, the queue reading of the consumer index in February is at a standing of 85.3, a top 15-percentile reading on data since 1991.

The economic situation is not as robust. It has improved for the next 12 months to -25 from a reading of -29 in January. There is a slight weakening in readings from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months, and the current February reading of -25 diffusion has a 15-percentile standing on data back to 1991. This concept carries a larger negative value over the next 12 months than under the last 12 months. However, that reading nonetheless has a stronger standing at its 24.9 percentile than the outlook for the 12 months ahead. The economic situation is clearly suppressed compared to the confidence reading.

Prices show a slight weakening for the next 12 months compared to the January reading. However, the 12-month to 6-month to 3-month readings show a move up to stronger price levels. The ranking of the February price reading is a top 16-percentile reading; inflation in Belgium is still on the hot side.

However, prospects for unemployment have shifted sharply to show a much lower expectation of unemployment; unemployment expectations increased from -20 in January to a diffusion reading of -11 in February, with a ranking in its lower two percentile.
   
The environment for making a major household purchase over the next 12 months has eroded over the past few months, although it shows a trend toward improvement from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months. Still, the February reading has a 29.7 percentile standing, well below its historical median (represented by a 50 percentile standing).

The ‘favorable to spend at present’ index weakened quite sharply in February and has been slipping from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months. It registered in February a standing in only its 10th percentile, extremely weak. The consumer is not leading Belgium into recovery on the back of spending.

The financial situation expected over the next 12 months has been relatively static month-to-month as well as across the last 12 months. The ranking for expected conditions is weak at a 34th percentile reading. But the current financial situation, while stepping back on the month, has an 82.7 percentile standing. The financial situation reading appears to be in some flux, but the actual current readings have been firm in relatively strong territory for some time.

Household savings for the next 12 months backed down in February but had been strengthening over the past year. The February reading is quite high, a top 9-percentile reading. The favorability to save has not changed much over the past year but has eroded slightly in February. The February current assessment for savings is at a 62.2 percentile reading, much weaker than its 12-month outlook reading.

The Belgian consumer is experiencing some crosscurrents. Consumer readings are underpinned by low expectations for unemployment and by a solid current situation appraisal. However, the economic situation remains weak and is not trending higher and inflation readings are still uncomfortably high.

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Belgium

Belgian Consumer Confidence Clings to a Positive Reading

Michael J. Moran

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New orders for durable goods fell 1.4% in December, but the change followed a strong advance in the prior month, leaving little damage to the upward trend that began early last year. The improvement in 2025 ended a period of little net change in the prior two years and left year-over-year growth of 10.0% in December.

As is often the case, the decline in headline bookings was influenced by the volatile aircraft and parts component, which fell 19.7%. Excluding aircraft, durable orders rose 1.3% month-to-month. Moreover, the advance was broadly based, with five of the six non-transportation categories contributing to the gain (only the miscellaneous category fell and the decline was modest at 0.2%).

With order flows trending up, manufacturers have started to register increases in unfilled orders. The backlog outside of transportation has increased for five consecutive months, averaging 0.3% per month. The aircraft industry, although not experiencing robust new orders, also has built up a backlog because of the long gestation period in building aircraft. Total unfilled orders have increased 10.2% in the past 12months.

New orders for nondefense capital goods other than aircraft is a component worthy of special attention because of the insight it provides into investment spending by businesses. This measure rose 0.6% in December, marking the sixth consecutive monthly advance. As with the headline figure, the improvement in 2025 ended a lethargic performance in the prior two years.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- A broad-based advance in December offset a drop in aircraft bookings.
- Unfilled orders are beginning to build.
- Orders for nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft remain on a solid path.

Durable Goods Orders: Irregular Upward Trend Continues

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Industrial production (IP) rose a larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m (2.3% y/y) in January following downwardly revised readings for both December (0.2% m/m versus 0.4% m/m previously) and November (0.1% m/m versus 0.4% m/m previously) according to data released by the Federal Reserve Board. The Action Economics Survey looked for a 0.4% monthly gain. The 2.3% annual increase was the second highest since September 2022.

Manufacturing output increased 0.6% y/y (2.4% y/y) in January following a downwardly revised unchanged reading in December (previously +0.2% m/m). Weakness in mining output continued with a 0.2% m/m decline (+2.5%y/y) in January after a downwardly revised 0.9% monthly drop in December (previously -0.7% m/m). This was fourth monthly decline in mining output in the past five months. Reflecting continued unseasonably cold temperatures, utilities output jumped 2.1% m/m (1.1% y/y) in January on top of an upwardly revised 3.0% monthly gain in December (previously 2.6% m/m). This reflected 2.1% monthly gains in both electricity and natural gas distribution.

Within manufacturing, durable goods production rose 0.8% m/m (3.7% y/y) in January after a 0.2% monthly increase in December. Gains were widespread across sectors. Production of nonmetallic mineral products increased 2.2% m/m, the first monthly gain in four months. Machinery output increased 1.2% m/m; computer production gained 1.0% m/m; output of motor vehicles rose 1.3% m/m. By contrast, production of aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment slipped 0.2% m/m, the second monthly decline in the past three months. Output of nondurable goods increased 0.4% m/m (1.3% y/y) in January, more than reversing a 0.2% monthly decline in December. Performance by sector was varied. Output of plastics and rubber products rose 1.3% m/m in January; chemical production increased 1.1% m/m; paper production gained 0.8% m/m. By contrast, output of apparel and leather goods fell 0.7% m/m, their first monthly decline in three months; food output fell 0.4% m/m; textile output declined 0.3% m/m.

By market groups, output of consumer goods increased 0.7% m/m (1.3% y/y) in January on top of a 0.8% monthly gain in December. Production of business equipment gained 0.9% m/m (9.3% y/y) in January, the same monthly advance as in December. Output of construction supplies rose 0.5% m/m (1.2% y/y) in January, more than reversing the 0.4% monthly decline in December. Output of material increased 0.6% m/m (1.9% y/y) in January after having been unchanged in December from November.

In special classifications, output of selected high-tech industries jumped 1.9% m/m (8.9% y/y) in January, the fourth consecutive monthly gain, following a 0.2% monthly increase in December. Output of motor vehicles and parts rose 1.3% m/m (5.5% y/y) in January after having been unchanged in December. The January gain was led by a 1.9% monthly jump in motor vehicle production. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries was up 0.6% m/m (2.2% y/y) in January following an unchanged monthly reading in December. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries and motor vehicles and parts increased 0.5% m/m (2.0% y/y) in January versus unchanged in December.

Capacity utilization rose to 76.2% in January, 3.2%-points below its long-term (1972-2025) average, from a downwardly revised 75.7% in December (previously 76.3%). The January reading was the highest since July. Manufacturing capacity utilization increased to 75.6% in January, 2.6%-points below its long-term (1972-2025) average, from 75.2% in December.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total industrial output increased a larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m in January.
- However, there were meaningful downward revisions to the previous two months.
- Manufacturing output increased 0.6% m/m, mining declined 0.2% m/m, and utilities production jumped 2.1% m/m.
- Rates of capacity utilization edged up in January but remained well below their long-term averages.

U.S. Industrial Production Jumped in January

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The index of consumer confidence published by the Conference Board rose 2.2 index points in February to 91.2, with the change coming from an upward revised level in January (now 89.0 rather than 84.5). The improvement is certainly welcome, but it does not meaningfully alter the picture of gloomy moods in the household sector. The preliminary index in January was below the low seen during the pandemic, and the new reading is only slightly above that trough.

The month-to month change in January was driven by the expectations component of the headline measure, which rose 4.8 index points to 72.0 (7.1%) from a revised level that was 3.2% firmer than previously believed. Individuals, though, are not especially optimistic about the future. The expectations measure still trails readings generally above 100 before the pandemic and it is light by historical norms (the measure is typically above 80 in non-recessionary periods or their aftermaths).

Assessments of the present situation naturally improved from the lows seen during the pandemic, but they never returned to pre-Covid levels and they have slipped considerably since early 2024. The latest figures did not meaningfully alter the picture. Although January results were revised 7.1% higher, the February index offset a portion of that gain by slipping. 1.5%. The measure is not at a recession-like level, but it seems low or an economy that has low unemployment and is growing at a rate close to its potential.

The detail of the Conference Board report provides insight into factors that are fueling the sour moods of individuals. The loss of vigor in the labor market is perhaps the most important consideration. The monthly survey of consumers asks if jobs are plentiful or hard to get, and the difference in the in the shares responding optimistically and pessimistically has shifted markedly. After touching a record high of 47.1% in in 2022 (sharer saying jobs are plentiful less share saying Jobs are hard to get) the differential has eased to 6.8% in January before edging up to 7.4% in February. Like the assessment of the present situation, the job differential is not recession-like, as it has moved below 040% at times and the record low is 58.7% in 1982. Still, it shows that individuals very much sense a deterioration in the labor market.

Politicians have seized on affordability as a key campaign issue, and the Conference Board survey shows that individuals are sensitive to inflation. After the inflation burst in 2022, expectations of inflation one year hence cooled to 5% in late 2024. However, inflation views picked up in 2025, briefly touching 7% before easing to 5.5% in February – still a above the 2024 low and most readings in the years before the pandemic.

One factor that has not dampened the moods of individuals is the performance of the equity market. The survey asks if stock prices are likely to be higher, lower , or the same 12 month hence. Here, optimism reigns, with 53.1% of respondents in February looking for higher prices. Only 23.5% expect the stock market to lose ground.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Firmer expectations offset dimmer views on the present situation.
- Although views on the present situation dipped, assessments of the labor market picked up.

Consumer Confidence: Improvement in February from Upward Revised Levels in January, but Individuals Are Still Unhappy

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