Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Next year's inflation forecasts are on the rise and above target

Robert Brusca

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**PMIs in June mark some progress**
The PMI report from S&P shows modest firming in conditions in June, even with the Middle East situation unresolved.

**Monthly:** The median reading for the 8 reporting countries or regions rose to 50.8 in June from 50.1 in May. Manufacturing improved to 52.7 from 52.4, while the services reading rose to 50.3 from 49.6, leaving a month of mild contraction behind.

**Most show June improvement:** Most countries or regions improved in June; the exceptions were Germany, the United Kingdom, and India, which were weaker. India was dragged down by a weaker service sector reading in June; the U.K. and Germany showed weakening conditions across the board for the composite index, the manufacturing sector, and services. On the other side of the coin, France, Japan, Australia, and the U.S. all showed improvement in each of three sectors: the composite, manufacturing, and services, in June compared to May.

**Sequentially still mixed:** The broader sequential readings show ongoing weakness, but these are derived from hard data and lag the monthly observations in the table that include preliminary flash estimates. All the composite readings weakened based on three-month averages except for India. However, seven of eight reporting areas showed improvement in manufacturing over three months compared to six months; the exception was Australia. Over six months, conditions are mixed, with four composite readings weaker compared to 12 months and with four stronger. However, over six months, all eight manufacturing sectors improved compared to 12 months. The 12-month readings are consistently stronger than their readings of 12 months ago. The only composite that's weaker is the U.S., while the services sectors in the monetary union, Germany, France, and the U.S. are weaker than they were 12 months ago.

**Standings are weak:** The queue percentile standings evaluate the current diffusion index in June compared to where it has been since January 2022, a period of about 4½ years. The queue standings show weakness up and down the line, with the exception of the manufacturing sector; that has the standing above its historic median in the monetary union, Germany, France, the U.K., the U.S., and Japan. Only Australia and India show manufacturing sectors whose current monthly standings are below their medians of the last 4½ years. In addition, Japan has a strong composite reading at its 81st percentile. Overall, the services sectors are weak and below their 50% standing every place, and below that mark by a large margin, except for Japan, where the services sector has a 47th percentile standing, only a few ticks below its median.

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**Summing up: A glimmer of hope but still a lot of weakness**
Manufacturing is stronger sequentially over three months, six months, and 12 months for every reporter except for Australia over three months. The rest of the report is not very impressive. There is some rebound in June, but here we're talking about volatile monthly data. The services sectors still show sequential weakness over 12 months, six months, and three months in the European Monetary Union, Germany, France, and the U.S. The U.K. and Japan showed three-month and six-month weakness as well. That’s too much weakness in the key job creation sector to think that this report is a positive signal.

S&P PMIs in June Firm

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Danish consumer confidence rose to -14 in June from -19.8 in May, a small pickup for a still-negative net reading. In June, the reading has a standing at its 7.9 percentile on data back to 1995. So, this confidence headline still has a lower 8% reading overall.

On the month, all seven component readings improved compared to May, although the environmental assessments were little changed across four components. As for the environment, the most changed reading is the improved favorability of the time to save, a metric that is not always a positive category.

As for the seven categories, the readings on the financial situation, general economy and the unemployment rate all improved month-to-month, while the inflation metrics both backed down sharply.

These changes show the financial situation and general economy gauges all at rankings in the lower 20th percentiles, with the outlook for the next 12 months having a standing in their lower 10th percentiles and lower for both the financial situation and the general economy.

Consumer prices, despite a strong monthly step-back, have a 90.2 percentile standing for prices over the past 12 months and a 94.3 percentile standing for the CPI over the next 12 months. Despite some let-up in concerns about unemployment, the unemployment gauge has an 85.1 percentile standing, still substantially elevated.

The environmental readings are less negative, starting with the ‘favorability of the time to purchase,’ a bit weaker month-to-month but improved on balance over two months. The June reading is slightly better than its 12-month average but still has a ranking only in its 21st percentile. The favorability of the time to purchase over the next 12 months is a tick weaker month-to-month and about a point worse than its 12-month average. Its June ranking is in its lower 10th percentile of its historic queue. The favorability of the time to save has a stronger ranking, but this is a more equivocal category. It is improved month-to-month and only slightly stronger over two months The June reading is stronger than its 12-month average, with a ranking in its 47.6 percentile—improved compared to previous categories but still worse than its historic median since 1995 (the median occurs at a ranking of 50%). The ‘general financial situation of households now’ ticked lower in June from May but is stronger on balance over two months. The June reading is above its 12-month average and has a 59.2 percentile standing—above its median.

On balance, Denmark shows improving confidence, progressing slowly but on the right path. There is a sharp downward adjustment in inflation, especially over the next 12 months, despite global conditions. Still, the ranking of the confidence metrics are uniformly weak.

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Denmark

Danish Confidence Improves As Inflation Expectations Pull Back Sharply

Andrew Cates

**US Outperformance Holds; Europe and China Continue to Disappoint**
One of the most persistent features of the global macro landscape in 2026 has been the widening divergence between growth outcomes in the United States and those in Europe and China. Citigroup’s global growth surprise indices—which measure the gap between actual economic releases and consensus expectations—capture this divergence with unusual clarity. US data have continued to surprise on the upside, supported by resilient consumer spending, a stronger-than-expected labour market and the ongoing AI-driven capital spending boom. The picture elsewhere is less encouraging. Growth surprises have turned negative across the euro area, reflecting the cumulative toll of elevated energy costs, weak industrial activity and subdued business confidence. And China's growth surprise index has also fallen sharply in recent weeks, with weaker-than-expected retail sales and fixed asset investment data for May this week reinforcing concerns that domestic demand remains fragile and that policy support is yet to gain meaningful traction.

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**The Oil Risk Premium in the UK Has Been Fading**
One of the more notable features of UK markets this year has been the close relationship between oil prices and two-year gilt yields. The link is not mechanical, but in an economy heavily exposed to imported energy, swings in oil prices can materially alter the inflation outlook and, by extension, expectations for Bank of England policy. That relationship was on display again this week. A softer-than-expected UK CPI reading for May—helped in part by easing energy price pressures—led investors to scale back expectations that inflation would remain persistently above target, pushing two-year gilt yields to their lowest level in six weeks. The question now is whether this marks the start of a more sustained easing in inflation pressures or merely a temporary reprieve. Much will depend on whether the recent decline in oil prices following the US-Iran ceasefire agreement proves durable.

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**The AI Investment Boom Is Rewriting the Rule Book for the Chip Industry**
If the divergence in global growth surprises noted above tells a story of a world economy under strain, the semiconductor sales data tell a very different one — of a technology-driven investment cycle that is accelerating almost regardless of the broader macro environment. Global semiconductor sales have surged to record levels over the past twelve months, driven primarily by insatiable demand for the chips that underpin AI infrastructure: graphics processing units, high-bandwidth memory, and advanced logic chips. Data centre capital expenditure from the hyperscalers continues to exceed even the most optimistic forecasts from a year ago, and the investment pipeline shows no sign of moderating. The gains are concentrated in AI-adjacent products; legacy chips for consumer electronics and industrial applications remain relatively soft.

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**Copper Holds Firm As Oil Retreats**
The commodity markets are telling two quite different stories this week, and the contrast is instructive. Oil has moved sharply lower on the US-Iran MoU news as investors trim the conflict risk premium that has been embedded in energy markets since March — a welcome development for inflation and central bank optionality alike. But the three commodities shown in this chart tell a different story. Copper, one of the most reliable proxies for global electricity infrastructure investment, remains near multi-year highs, reflecting the extraordinary volume of data centre construction, grid expansion and electrification spending flowing through the global economy. Aluminium — energy-intensive to produce and increasingly in demand for the structural components of both data centres and electric vehicles — has, until quite recently, held its ground. Lithium hydroxide, the battery-grade refining product that sits at the heart of the energy storage supply chain, has seen some cyclical softness but remains structurally underpinned by the scale of demand being projected for grid-scale storage and electric mobility over the next decade.

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**Is Energy Availability a Binding Constraint on Growth?**
This next chart is a scatter plot that maps electricity generation per capita against GDP growth per capita across a broad sample of countries over the past five years. The positive relationship is striking. Economies with higher electricity generation per capita, including the United States, have generally delivered stronger GDP growth, while those with more constrained electricity systems have tended to lag. The obvious objection is reverse causality: richer economies generate more electricity because they have more to power. That is partly true. But the broader evidence is difficult to dismiss. The US shale revolution delivered an abundance of cheap energy that supported a sustained period of industrial outperformance relative to many advanced economies. Mainstream commentary often attributed this advantage to factors such as labour market flexibility or technological innovation, but energy costs were arguably at least as important.

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**Corporate America Is Investing from a Position of Unusual Financial Strength**
The surge in US corporate investment—particularly in AI infrastructure, data centres and semiconductors—has inevitably drawn comparisons with the late-1990s dot-com boom. Yet the financial balance data suggest an important difference. During the dot-com era, US non-financial corporates moved into a financial deficit approaching 4% of GDP, relying heavily on external financing to fund investment. Today, despite another ambitious investment cycle, the sector remains in surplus, currently around 1.8% of GDP. Corporate America is investing aggressively, but it is still generating more cash than it is spending. The boom is being financed largely through profits rather than debt. Risks remain—not least the growing fiscal burden on the federal government—but the balance-sheet fragilities that turned previous investment booms into systemic crises appear far less pronounced. If a major constraint emerges in the years ahead, it may be energy and resources rather than leverage.

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The signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran earlier this week has offered financial markets their most significant moment of geopolitical relief since the Middle East conflict escalated in early March. Oil prices fell sharply on the news, short-dated bond yields moved lower across several major economies, and risk assets recovered ground. But relief, as investors have learnt repeatedly over the past three months, is arguably not the same as resolution. The MoU sets a framework for negotiations rather than a final settlement, and the history of US-Iran diplomacy is not one that encourages complacency. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve — concluding its June meeting yesterday under new chair Kevin Warsh — held rates steady but delivered a distinctly hawkish dot plot that shifted the median year-end projection from a cut to a hike, a reminder that the easing cycle the market had been pricing is no longer the base case. Against this backdrop, this week's charts take stock of where the global economy presently stands — and what the underlying data, beneath the geopolitical noise, are telling us. The picture that emerges is one of divergence. The United States continues to outperform consensus growth expectations while Europe and China disappoint (chart 1). UK short-dated yields have tracked oil prices with unusual consistency this year, and today's softer-than-expected CPI print for May — arriving just as the MoU has knocked crude lower — potentially changes the policy calculus for the Bank of England (chart 2). Global semiconductor sales, meanwhile, are storming ahead regardless of the geopolitical noise, powered by AI infrastructure spending that shows no sign of fatigue (chart 3). A cross-section of commodity prices tells two stories simultaneously: the geopolitical risk premium is draining out of oil, but the metals and materials the AI economy actually needs — copper, uranium, critical minerals — are holding firm (chart 4). Meanwhile a cross-country scatter of electricity generation and GDP growth over the past five years raises a question that deserves more attention than it typically gets: is energy availability a constraint on growth, or merely a consequence of it? The evidence, we would argue, points firmly in one direction (chart 5). And finally, for all the comparisons being drawn between the current investment boom and the late 1990s, the financial balance of the US corporate sector tells a rather different story — one that matters for how any correction might unfold (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: Between Relief and Reality

Winnie Tapasanun

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The current general activity diffusion index rebounded to a slightly stronger-than-expected 10.3 in June following a 27.1-point drop to -0.4 in May, the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed, indicating a return to expansion in manufacturing activity in the Third Federal Reserve District this month. A reading of 10.0 for June had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. June marked the fifth m/m increase in six months, showing a sharp improvement from -1.4 in June 2025. In June, 32.1% of firms reported increases in current general activity (up from 22.5% in May), while 21.9% reported decreases (down from 22.9%); 45.4% reported no change (down from 54.6%). Survey responses were collected from June 8 to June 15.

Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from five key components using the methodology along the lines of the national ISM index. The index rose to 53.1 in June after a 4.8-point decline to a contraction-level 49.7 in May, indicating manufacturing activity expanded for the third time in four months; it was slightly above 51.0 in June 2025.

In the latest survey, the new orders index surged to 27.3 in June following a 34.7-point plunge to -1.7 in May, signaling new orders expanded for the sixth time in seven months. The shipments index rebounded to 14.9 this month from 4.9 in May, registering the seventh consecutive expansion. The unfilled orders index advanced to 10.5 from -2.5, indicating expansion for the first time since July 2025 and the highest level since January 2025. In contrast, the inventories index dropped to -8.5 in June from 6.6 in May, showing inventories contracted for the second time in three months and at the lowest level since July 2024. Meanwhile, the delivery times index increased to -2.6 this month from -10.4 in May (the lowest reading since March 2024).

On the labor front, the number of employees index climbed to 7.9 in June from -2.8 in May, indicating employment expanded for the first time in three months and at the highest level since January. In June, a higher 17.0% of respondents reported increases in employment, while 9.2% reported declines; 73.8% reported no change in employment levels. The average employee workweek index fell to -6.5 this month, the first negative reading and lowest since February, from 1.2 in May.

Inflation indicators were mixed in June. The prices paid index rose to 53.2 this month following an 11.4-point drop to 47.9 in May. A higher 53.5% of respondents reported increases in input prices in June, while only 0.4% reported decreases. The prices received index fell to 20.3, a four-month low, after a 7.2-point May decline to 26.3. In June, 20.3% of respondents reported increases in prices received, while 0.0% reported decreases.

The future indexes remained in positive territory, signaling continued overall growth over the next six months, with most future indicators rising. The future general activity diffusion index edged down to 50.2 in June from 53.2 in May, staying positive since February 2024. Future indexes for new orders (60.8 vs. 53.5) and shipments (60.3 vs. 45.7) increased in June (vs. May) and remained positive. Notably, the future capital expenditures index rose to 41.2 this month, the highest level since June 2021, from 30.9 in May. The following future indexes slipped in June (vs. May) but stayed in positive territory: employment (30.8 vs. 31.7), unfilled orders (17.3 vs. 19.2), and inventories (10.0 vs. 11.8). Prices continued to increase, with the future prices paid index easing to a still-elevated 63.2 in June from 70.0 in May and the future prices received index rising to 67.2, the highest level since August 2021, from 60.5.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The indexes range from -100 to +100 with positive values indicating an increase in activity. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Current General Activity Index up 10.7 pts. to 10.3 in June; fifth rise in six months.
- New Orders (27.3), sixth expansion in seven mths.; Shipments (14.9), seventh straight expansion; Unfilled Orders (10.5), first expansion since July ’25.
- Employment (7.9), a five-month high after two mths. of contraction.
- Inflation indicators: Prices Paid up (53.2); Prices Received down (20.3, a four-month low).
- Future General Activity Index down to a still-expansion-level 50.2; most subindexes up and positive; future price indexes remaining above long-run avgs.

U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Returns to Positive Territory in June

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Unemployment in the European Monetary Union stayed at 6.3% in April, just a tick above its all-time low. In the more inclusive EU, the unemployment rate hovered at 6%, just two tenths of a percentage point above its all-time low. Unemployment conditions in the monetary union remain low without many signs of acceleration.

The unemployment rate in April fell in Italy, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, and the Netherlands. The unemployment rate increased month-to-month in Finland.

In March, the unemployment rate declined in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Finland, Italy, and the Netherlands. It rose month-to-month in Greece and Luxembourg.

Over three months, the unemployment rate in these 12-early reporting monetary union members fell in five countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, Ireland, and the Netherlands. In contrast, unemployment rose in five countries: Portugal, Greece, France, Finland, and Austria.

Over six months, unemployment rates fell in six countries: the Netherlands, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Belgium, and Austria. This was against increases in six countries: Greece, Finland, France, Luxembourg, Spain, and Ireland.

Year over year, the degree of inflation progress is much thinner, with the unemployment rates falling in only three countries Italy, Spain, and Portugal with increases in unemployment for all the other countries in the table.

Unemployment rates continue to rank low in the monetary union, with only three monetary union countries having their unemployment rates ranked above 50%, putting them above their respective medians on data back to the year 2000. Those three countries are Luxembourg, Finland, and Austria. For the remaining countries, the rankings of their unemployment rates over this period are not even as high as their 30th percentiles. Italy, at present, is experiencing its lowest unemployment rate of the period.

Unemployment conditions in the monetary union remain solid. The past two weeks were significant for monetary policy and global economics, with the ECB raising rates, Japan raising rates, and the United States keeping rates unchanged but moving away from an easing bias in policy that had been in effect for quite a number of months. Today the Bank of England, after experiencing some significant inflation progress, decided to keep its policy on hold for another session. An agreement between the U.S. and Iran securing an opening of the Strait of Hormuz was signed, paving the way for potentially improved oil flows, lower inflation, and less uncertainty in the period ahead.

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Europe

EMU Unemployment Remains Low

Sandy Batten

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Total retail sales rose a much larger-than-expected 0.9% m/m (6.9%y/y) in May following a slightly downwardly revised 0.4% monthly gain in April (previously 0.5% m/m), according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.5% m/m gain. Excluding autos, other sales increased 0.8% m/m (7.5% y/y) after an unrevised 0.7% m/m increase in April. Expectations were for a 0.5% monthly rise.

Elevated retail gasoline prices continued to boost the value of gasoline sales in May. Gasoline sales increased 3.4% m/m (26.5% y/y) in May on top of a 2.8% m/m increase in April. However, both monthly increases were slower than the 14.2% monthly jump reported in March. Gasoline sales accounted for 31% of total sales in May. However, sales were solid even without gasoline sales. Total sales excluding gasoline rose 0.7% m/m in April, up from 0.2% m/m in April. Sales excluding both autos and gasoline increased 0.5% m/m in May, the same monthly gain as in April.

The control group of sales (total sales excluding food services, autos, gasoline and building materials that the BEA uses to construct PCE in the national accounts) posted another solid increase in May, rising 0.7% m/m (6.3% y/y) following an unrevised 0.5% monthly increase in April. The strong performance at the end of Q1 followed by solid gains in April and May put the April-May level of control group sales up 8.6% at an annual rate from the Q1 average, pointing to another solid contribution by consumption to overall GDP growth in Q2. Consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient notwithstanding the recent hit to disposable income from the marked increase in energy prices.

Sales generally increased across major sectors in May. Auto sales rebounded, rising 1.2% m/m in May and more than reversing the 0.9% monthly decline in April. This was the third gain in auto sales in the past four months. Furniture sales rose 1.0% m/m but sales at electronics and appliance stores slipped 0.5% m/m. Building material sales gained 1.0% m/m on top of a 1.1% monthly increase in April. Clothing sales rose 0.3% m/m. Sales at general merchandise stores gained 0.4% m/m in May. Miscellaneous sales jumped 2.3% m/m in May, their first monthly gain in three months. Sales by nonstore retailers continued their strong performance, increasing 1.5% m/m in May on top of a 1.1% monthly rise in April. Over the first five months of this year, nonstore retail sales have risen 7.2%, not annualized. By contrast, food sales were unchanged in May from April while sales at restaurants edged down 0.1% m/m in May, their first monthly decline in four months.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total sales increased 0.9% m/m in May, nearly twice expectations.
- Auto sales rebounded, rising 1.2% m/m in May, more than reversing a 0.9% monthly decline in April. 
- Gasoline sales rose 3.4% m/m in May.
- Excluding auto and gasoline sales, remaining sales increased by a solid 0.5% m/m in May, the same monthly increase as in April.
- Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.7% m/m in May and are 8.6% annualized above the Q1 average.

U.S. Retail Sales Jumped More than Expected in May

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Mortgage applications fell 3.8% w/w (+8.6% y/y) in the week ending June 12 following a 10.8% rebound in the week ending June 5, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the fourth w/w fall in five weeks, lowering the index to 269.5. Applications for loans to purchase a house slid 3.4% (+3.0% y/y) in the June 12 week, down for the fourth time in five weeks, after a 7.3% rise in the previous week. Applications for loan refinancing dropped 4.5% (+17.0% y/y) in the June 12 week, the seventh w/w decline in eight weeks, following a 15.3% jump in the June 5 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan was unchanged at 6.78% in the week ending June 12; it was above a low of 6.24% in the February 27 week but below a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages edged up 2bps to 6.18% in the June 12 week, the highest in three weeks, from 6.16% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the week of September 20, 2024 but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. Meanwhile, the rate on 30-year jumbo loans declined 4bps to 6.78% in the June 12 week from 6.82% in the prior week; it was above a low of 6.25% in the February 27 week but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on a 5-year ARM fell 7bps to 6.16% in the June 12 week, the first w/w decline in six weeks, from 6.23% in the previous week (the highest since the week of August 15, 2025); it was above a low of 5.38% in the February 20 week but below a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan edged up to 40.3% of total applications in the week ending June 12—the fourth w/w increase in five weeks and the highest level since the May 15 week—after rising to 40.2% in the week ending June 5; it remained below a peak of 61.9% in the January 16 week but above a low of 34.6% in the week of May 23, 2025. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity slipped to 8.5% in the June 12 week from 8.6% in the prior week; it was below a peak of 12.9% in the week of September 12, 2025 but above a low of 4.7% in the week of January 3, 2025.

The average size of a mortgage loan fell 1.5% w/w (+3.7% y/y) to $394,100 in the June 12 week, the lowest level since the April 3 week, after a 0.4% rebound to $399,900 in the June 5 week. The average size of a purchase loan dropped 1.9% (+4.0% y/y) to $456,600 in the June 12 week following a 2.8% recovery to $465,300 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage fell 0.4% (+7.0% y/y) to $301,400 in the June 12 week on top of a 2.3% decline to $302,500 in the previous week, marking the third consecutive w/w fall, the sixth decline in seven weeks, and the lowest level since the week of July 25, 2025.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications -3.4% w/w, down for fourth time in five weeks; refinance applications -4.5% w/w, seventh fall in eight weeks.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans unchanged at 6.78%, up from a late-February low of 6.24%.
- Average loan size down for the second time in three weeks, lowest since the April 3 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Down 3.8% in the June 12 Week, Fourth Drop in Five Weeks

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It's an interesting time for the Bank of England to be meeting; it has its next policy meeting on June 18. Top money center central banks have been meeting, and the European Central Bank delivered a rate hike, with what is believed to be a likelihood of another hike before the end of the year. The Bank of Japan as just met and executed a 25-basis-point rate hike that brought the overnight interest rate up to 1% for the first time in 31 years. The Federal Reserve meets today and although the Fed is not expected to make an interest rate change, it is widely expected to remove the language that implies the next rate change is likely to be a reduction. Against that background, there is a pending deal to be signed on Friday between the United States and Iran to end the hostilities, to open the Strait of Hormuz, and to allow a normalization—or at least a transition toward normalization—of traffic flow through the Strait of Hormuz and the restoration of the delivery of the world's oil supplies.

Against this background, the Bank of England will be making its rate decision. Part of this background shows other central banks having taken steps to become less accommodative or more vigilant against inflation risks and what have been ongoing overshoots of inflation targets by monetary policy globally. The Bank of England is part of this phenomenon as its rate of inflation, measured by the CPIH, is 3% year-over-year, a full percentage point above where it's supposed to be. However, both the CPIH and the HICP treatments for measuring U.K. inflation show inflation edging slightly lower—from 3% for the CPIH over 12 months to 2.7% over three months annualized. For the HICP, it moves from 2.9% over 12 months to a 2.7% annual rate over three months. Both of these are small moves but in the right direction. In addition, the CPIH core measure, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, shows inflation declining from 2.9% over 12 months to 2.6% at an annual rate over six months, and to 1.7% at an annual rate over three months.

In short, inflation progress in the U.K. is very much in gear for the headline; inflation is quite moderately easing, however. For the core, the move lower is impressive and considerable. The question is whether the MPC at the Bank of England will find these movements sufficient in and of themselves to stay their hand and hold interest rate policy, or whether the Committee will join the ranks of central banks hiking interest rates to make sure that inflation makes that turn lower.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is hopeful, but not definitive, and there have been a number of ceasefires in the Middle East that have been called and then broken up relatively quickly. This time, markets are reacting to this particular announcement much more decisively and treating it as if this one is the ‘Real McCoy’ with oil prices having fallen down into the mid $70/barrel range and other indicators showing that markets are convinced that prices are moving lower too. Are the Bank of England's MPC members buying onto this as well? Or are they going to treat this as perhaps one last opportunity to get interest rates up and to make sure that the inflation rate goes down?

U.K. inflation on a monthly basis shows a slight tendency to accelerate in May, with inflation diffusion measuring inflation acceleration month-to-month at 58.3%, above the neutral reading of 50. However, diffusion had been at 50% in April and at 41.7% in March. Acceleration has been broadly blunted. In addition, the May increase in the CPIH was only 0.1%, the same as in April, with March having posted a much stronger increase of 0.4%.

Looking at trends sequentially over 12 months, six months and three months, diffusion is only 25% over 12 months; it is 50% over six months and 25% over three months. These metrics reinforce the view that inflation is not broadly accelerating but rather decelerating and moving back into line.

Taking the year-over-year inflation rate, it's a ranking of overall inflation rates back to January 2000. The headline CPIH is still high at a 74.4 percentile standing; that means it has been higher than 3% about 25% of the time and lower about 75% of the time. The average ranking across the various metrics in the table is 61%. That's above a ranking of 50% that delineates the median for the period. And despite the fast fall in the CPIH core rate, the year-over-year core is at 2.9% and has an 81.2 percentile ranking, meaning it has been higher since January 2000, less than 20% of the time. However, that 12-month rate of 2.9% is now down to 1.7% over three months. There are too many ways to look at inflation, at the environment, at what other central banks have done, and at trends to know with any certainty what the BOE will do.

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The Bank of England has had a long period of overshooting its inflation target. It certainly will want to make sure that it's on a clear path toward getting inflation back to 2%. There's a question here about how much the Bank of England will want to trust the trend that it sees, how much it wants to trust the fast drop in the core rate, and then how much it wants to believe that the deal struck with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz is going to prove durable. There are no real answers to these questions; they're going to be based upon opinions and perceptions, and they're also going to be based upon the pressure that the Bank of England feels about needing to make sure that it gets inflation back to 2% after its long period of intransigence. We'll find this out tomorrow.

United Kingdom

U.K. Inflation Dips and Shows Progress

Michael J. Moran

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The price index for personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% in May, although the measure almost rounded up to 0.5% (0.4498%). May marked the sixth consecutive month with headline prices increasing 0.3% or more. This series of changes has pulled the year-over-year inflation rate to 4.1%, up from 2.3% just over one year ago (April 2025). Energy prices, of course, have been the most important factor behind the acceleration in inflation, and they remained an issue in May, increasing 4.0% after advances of 3.9% and 11.6% in the prior two months. Food prices have moved erratically in the past year, with jumps and lulls leaving an average monthly increase of 0.2%. The noise was evident in recent months, with food prices increasing only 0.1% in May after a jump of 0.5% in April.

Core prices also have contributed to the pickup in inflation. After averaging monthly increases of 0.24% during 2025, core prices have increased at an average rate of 0.34% so far this year. The year-over-year increase in core inflation totaled 3.4% in May, up from a recent low of 2.6% in April of last year. Both the headline and core inflation rates are uncomfortably above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%.

Total personal income rose briskly in May (0.7%). A surge in farm income played an important role (up 125% month-to-month, most likely reflecting government support payments), but nominal results also were firm elsewhere (up 0.5% ex farm income). Inflation reduced the purchasing power of this income gain, but aggregate income still advanced slightly in real terms (0.2%).

Given the recent surge in energy-driven inflation, May marked only the second monthly increase in real income so far this year. Tight budgets have dampened consumer spending, but individuals have not pulled to the sidelines. Real consumption expenditures rose 0.5% (annual rate) in the first quarter, and results for April and May suggest that real PCE is on track to increase 1.5% to 2.0% in the second quarter.

Households have managed to remain moderately active in their spending by limiting their saving. The saving rate has drifted lower since early 2024 moving to 3.0% in May (chart, below right). The erosion in saving perhaps seems reckless, but some of the reduction could be a response to the strength in the equity market, where wealth gains have possibly limited the incentive to save. Also, larger-than-normal tax refunds this year because of tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Budget Act have allowed many households to spend actively despite modest increases in real income.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Energy prices rose sharply for the third consecutive month; core prices were unsettling as well.
- A jump in nominal income translated to a modest advance in real terms, allowing consumers to remain reasonably active.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in May

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