Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[EViews Econometric Software](https://eviews.com) is a powerful Windows based modeling program that offers a variety of sophisticated regression and forecasting tools.

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EViews

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with Clear Future Consultants to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

 Futures market thinks Fed has reached rate peak, first cut expected in Q3 with another in Q4

Tom Moeller

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New single-family home sales during February rose 1.1% (-19.0% y/y) to 640,000 (SAAR) after increasing 1.8% in January to 633,000, revised from 670,000. December sales were revised to 622,000 from 625,000. Despite three consecutive months of gain, sales remained 38.2% below the August 2020 peak. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 646,000 new homes during last month.

February’s gain in new home sales reflected varied movement amongst the regions of the country. In the West, sales rose 8.1% (-33.2% y/y) to 133,000 after falling 9.6% in January. This increase was accompanied by a 3.0% gain (-8.8% y/y) in sales in the South to 415,000 following a 4.4% rise in January. Offsetting these gains, new home sales in the Northeast collapsed 40.0% (-55.3% y/y) to 21,000 after rising 20.7% in January. Also declining last month, new home sales in the Midwest fell 1.4% (-20.2% y/y) to 71,000 which reversed a 1.4% January increase to 72,000.

The median price of a new home rose 2.7% last month (2.5% y/y) to $438,200 after falling 9.2% in January. The price has fallen 11.8% since its October peak of $496,800. The average sales price of a new home improved 3.9% (-4.5% y/y) to $498,700 following a 15.4% January decline. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market fell 0.7% in February (+10.1% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted 436,000 units, up from a low of 142,000 in July 2012. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale eased minimally m/m to 8.2 months. They remained down from a high of 10.1 months in September, but above its low of 3.3 months in August 2020. The median number of months a new home stayed on the market rose to 2.5 from 2.3 months in January. That remained up from the record low of 1.5 months in both September & October of last year, down from a high of 5.1 in March 2021. These data date back to January 1975.

New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Home sales rise for third straight month.
- Sales changes remain mixed regionally.
- Median sales price gain fails to recoup earlier decline.

U.S. New Home Sales Increase Further in February

Winnie Tapasanun

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The Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite index was at 0 in March and February and at -1 in January, the March Manufacturing Survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City showed, indicating Tenth District manufacturing activity remained essentially flat for the third consecutive month. The March reading was well below a record-high 32 last March. “Nondurable goods plants reported decreased activity in March, especially printing, plastics, and chemical manufacturing, while food manufacturing increased,” the Kansas City Fed reported. The ISM-adjusted index calculated by Haver Analytics rose to 53.2 (NSA) this month from 49.6 in February and 49.7 in January, above the 50 expansion-contraction dividing line for the first time since September and at the highest level since July. These ISM-adjusted readings were below a record-high 68.9 last March.

The new orders index fell back to -13 in March from -6 in February, registering the eighth successive negative reading and down from 22 last March. An increased 32% of respondents (NSA) reported orders gains while 30% reported declines. In contrast, the production index recovered to 3 this month from -9 in February (at negative levels from October to February), but it was significantly down from 42 last March. The employment index rose to 18 in March from 11 in February; it was the highest reading since May and the same level as last March. Twenty-eight percent of respondents (NSA) reported increases in the number of employees while a lessened 12% reported decreases. The shipments index rebounded to 6 this month, the highest reading since July, from -13 in February; nevertheless, remaining down from a record-high 43 last March.

The raw materials inventory index declined to -1 in March, a three-month low, from 1 in February; these readings were well below 29 last March. The order backlog index rebounded to -18 this month, the eighth straight negative reading, from -22 in February, but it was down from 20 last March. The supplier delivery time index fell to -6 in March, the fourth negative reading in five months, after increasing to 2 in February; it was significantly below 50 last March.

The prices received index for finished products fell to 13 in March, the lowest reading since December 2020, after rising to 17 in February. It was well below 48 last March and a record-high 60 in August 2021. Twenty-two percent of respondents (NSA) reported higher prices received while a steady 10% reported price declines. By contrast, the prices paid index for raw materials rose to 30 this month, the highest level since September, from 26 in February; however, it was meaningfully down from a recent-high 77 last April and 75 last March.

Expectations for future activity increased slightly in March. The expectations index for six months ahead rose to 3 this month after falling to 1 in February. The expectations indexes for employment (15), shipments (11), new orders (3), and raw materials inventories (-7) increased in March, while expected production and supplier delivery time were unchanged at 13 and -11, respectively. Expectations for future raw materials prices declined to 40 in March after jumping to 42 in February, but expected finished goods prices increased further this month to 41, the highest level since October, from 40 in February.

The latest survey was conducted for a five-day period from March 15-20, 2023 and included 95 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and western Missouri.

The series dates back to July 2001. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- Composite Index stays at 0 in March, led by a drop in new orders to -13.
- Employment rises to 18, its highest level since May ’22; production rebounds to 3 after being in negative territory for five straight months.
- Price indexes show mixed results, with a rise to a six-month high in prices paid for raw materials but a slight decline in prices received for finished goods.
- Expectations for future activity improve slightly.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Remains Flat in March

Sandy Batten

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The U.S. current account deficit narrowed more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year to a seasonally adjusted $206.8 billion in Q4 from $219.0 billion in Q3, revised from $217.1 billion. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a $214.0 billion deficit. It was the smallest deficit since Q2 2021. As a percent of GDP, the Q4 deficit decreased to 3.16%, the lowest since Q2 2020, from 3.41% in Q3. Exports of goods and services fell 3.2% q/q following a 1.9% quarterly gain in Q3. Imports of goods and services fell 2.7% q/q on top of a 3.0% q/q decline in Q3.

For all of 2022, the current account deficit set another new record of $943.8 billion versus $846.4 billion in 2021. The widening of the goods trade deficit more than accounted for the widening of the overall deficit in 2022. The services surplus was little changed while the increase in the surplus in primary income was almost completely offset by an increase in the deficit in secondary income,

In Q4, the deficit in goods trade widened to $272.4 billion from $269.3 billion in Q3, revised from $271.1 billion. Exports of goods fell 5.7% q/q, their first quarterly decline since Q2 2020, following a 1.4% quarterly increase in Q3. Quarterly declines were widespread across major end-use categories with auto exports the only category to post a meaningful increase (+6.0% q/q).

Imports of goods decreased 3.4% q/q on top of a 3.8% quarterly decline in Q3. Again, the decline was widespread across end-use categories. By contrast, the catch-all “other” category jumped 10.8% q/q, its first gain in four quarters. Auto imports edged up 0.6% q/q, their fifth consecutive quarterly gain.

The surplus on services trade widened $5 billion to $67.3 billion in Q4 from an upwardly revised $62.3 billion in Q3 (previously $60.5 billion). Exports of services rose 2.6% q/q following a 3.2% q/q increase in Q3. The gains were widely spread, led by transport (+6.3% q/q), travel (+8.1% q/q) and construction (+8.1% q/q). Services imports edged up 0.6% q/q after a 1.2% quarterly increase in Q3. Quarterly increases in travel, financial services, charges for intellectual property, and personal, cultural and recreational services were largely offset by declines in transport, construction, telecommunications, and other business services.

The surplus on primary income fell to $39.3 billion in Q4 from a downwardly revised $41.8 billion in Q3 (previously $45.6 billion). Primary income receipts rose 5.0% q/q while primary income payments increased a larger 6.7% q/q. The deficit on secondary income narrowed markedly to $41.1 billion in Q4 from $53.8 billion in Q3. Secondary income receipts jumped 19.2% q/q while secondary income payments fell 4.6% q/q.

On the capital flow side of the ledger, the net US acquisition of foreign financial assets fell $264.6 billion in Q4 following a downwardly revised $339.0 increase in Q3 (previously +$411.0 billion). The net incurrence of foreign financial liabilities also fell in Q4, declining $144.1 billion following a $487.3 billion increase in Q3.

Balance of Payments data are in Haver’s **USINT** database, with summaries available in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Q4 deficit was smallest in six quarters.
- Goods deficit widened in Q4 as both exports and imports fell.
- Services surplus widened and deficit on secondary income narrowed in Q4.

U.S. Current Account Deficit Narrowed Again in Q4 but Set New Record for 2022

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.19 during February from an unrevised +0.23 in January, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The figure was improved from its most negative reading a -0.62 in November. An unchanged index had been expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey.

The index's three-month moving average, which smooths out volatility, edged up to -0.13 last month from -0.27 in January. The reading was higher than a low of -0.38 in December. During the last 10 years, there has been a 71% correlation between the change in the Chicago Fed Index and quarterly growth in real GDP.

The Production & Income index fell to -0.08 in February from +0.15 in January. It compared to -0.66 in December. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours index declined to -0.02 from +0.10 in January. The Personal Consumption & Housing index weakened to -0.08 from +0.10 in January, which was a 12-month high. The Sales, Orders & Inventories index of -0.02 compared to -0.12 in January and was the sixth straight negative reading.

The CFNAI diffusion index, which measures the breadth of movement in the component series, improved to 0.02 in February from -0.07 in January. It was the first positive figure in four months. Thirty-eight of the 85 component series contributed positively to the index while 47 made negative contributions to the index overall.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity moves toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of February 21, 2023. January data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published at that time. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index.

The index is constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- Reading is below zero for fourth month in last five.
- All four components are negative.
- Recent trend roughly stabilizes.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Is Negative in February

Carol Stone, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked down to 191,000 (+15.1% y/y) during the week ended March 18 from 192,000 in the prior week, which was unrevised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey for the March 18 week had been for 197,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 196,250 in the March 18 week, just barely below the prior week’s 196,500.

In the week ended March 11, the number of continuing weeks claimed for unemployment insurance increased 14,000 to 1.694 million (+9.9% y/y) from 1.680 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average of continuing claims was 1.684 million, up somewhat from 1.676 million in the four weeks ended March 4.

The insured rate of unemployment was again 1.2% for a third consecutive week after two weeks at 1.1%. This rate is thus still hovering between 1.1% and 1.2%, where it has been since mid-November and remains just above the record low range of 0.9%-to-1.0% in place from April through October of last year.

In the week ended March 4, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs decreased 3.1% (+4.4% y/y) to 1.939 million from 2.000 million in the prior week. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release, as both programs have expired.

The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary across states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 4 were in New Jersey (2.69%), Rhode Island (2.50%), Massachusetts (2.37%), California (2.34%) and Minnesota (2.29%). The lowest rates were in Virginia (0.32%), Kansas (0.40%) North Carolina and Florida (0.41%), Tennessee (0.46%) and Alabama (0.47%). Other major state rates include Illinois (1.95%), New York (1.94%, Pennsylvania (1.72%) and Texas (0.91%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's **WEEKLY** database, and they are summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW**. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims edge downward 1,000, remain just under 200,000.
- Insured unemployment rate steady at 1.2%, holding in historically low range.
- Highest state rates at 2.7%, lowest at 0.3%-0.4%.

Unemployment Insurance Claims Hold Steady in March 18 Week

Robert Brusca

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Consumer confidence in Denmark in March improved slightly, moving up to -23.1 from -25.1 in February after logging a -26.1 in January. These improvements are not strong, but they are movements toward ‘better’ rather than toward ‘worse.’ The absolute reading is extremely weak with the ranking of 2.7% on data since 1995. That means that since 1995 readings have been this weak or weaker only 2.7% of the time. 


**The past year…**
The data assessing conditions over the last 12 months are generally quite weak; the financial situation for the last 12 months has a 0.6 percentile standing. The general economy reading for the last 12 months has a 3.3 percentile standing. The assessment of consumer prices over the last 12 months, of course, has a high 97-percentile standing telling us that inflation had been higher historically only about 3% of the time. That's not surprising and it's not good news. That summary sets the stage for the responses for this month.

**Looking ahead**
The look-ahead responses from March show the financial situation for the next 12 months slightly stronger at a net 0.4 reading, up from -0.3 in February, but still with only a 3.6 percentile standing. The outlook for the general economy improved to -0.7 in March from a -6.4 reading in February, logged at a 38.8 percentile standing much better than the other standings noted to date; however, it is substantially below the 50% break even mark. Consumer prices over the next 12 months have a -8.5 assessment for March below the -8 assessment for February; the standing for this metric is the 27th percentile which is certainly a lot weaker than the 97th percentile standing for the previous twelve months. There is some expectation that inflation is going to be coming down; it is hard to tell from this whether that sort of decline is sufficient or not. The unemployment trend expected for the next 12 months has a lower net 18.6 reading in March, down from 28.4 in February (which had a small uptick compared to January). The standing still has an 87-percentile mark which is relatively high.

**The environment**
Assessments of the environment in March change very little from February. All responses have rankings below historic midpoints (below 50%). The favorability of the time to purchase improved slightly to -39.6 in March from -41.8 in February; the favorability the time to purchase over the next 12 months improved to -15.5 from -17.9. The favorability of the time to save ticked ever so slightly higher to 64.4 from 64.3; the March favorability of the time to save over the next 12 months eroded to 22 from 23.8 logging a lower 10-percentile standing. The general financial situation of households is unchanged at 19.8, a 2.4 percentile standing. The environment is weak.

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**Summing up**
Looking across the sequential changes in categories from 12-months to a year-ago, six-months compared to 12-months and 3-months compared to 6-months, the only surveyed category that improves consistently is the favorability of the time to save. And that, generally speaking, is not a very bullish category. On the other hand, consumer prices are weaker over all these timelines, which is good news because it suggests that expected inflation has been steadily falling. Only two categories show consistent improvements over 3-months compared to 6-months and over 6-months compared to 12-months and that's the expected financial situation over the next 12 months and the assessment of the economy over the next 12 months. Those are both good things to see, that the financial situation is consistently expected to improve and the economy as well. 

The readings for the Danish index remain weak. There are some positive trends and the negative trends that exist are not getting worse. However, the sense of improvement is not very strong and, for the most part, what we have here is an absence of further deterioration. Response standings continue to be extremely low. Consumer confidence in Denmark continues to be adversely impacted and weak.

Denmark

Danish Confidence Bottoms and Stabilizes

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At today’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the targeted Federal Funds Rate was raised by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00%. The increase followed a similar action at the last meeting, one 50 basis point increase at the prior meeting and four consecutive 75 basis point increases. The rate was set to the highest level since September 2007.

Following the meeting, the Fed stated,  “The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”

“In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”

In the aftermath of recent financial market events, the statement also indicated that “The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals.”
 
In addition, “The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously released plans.”

Today’s action was endorsed by each member of the FOMC.

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The Fed also updated its economic projections as follows:

FOMC Projections

- The FOMC raised the targeted Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00%. 
- Today’s decision was endorsed by each member of the FOMC.

FOMC Gradually Lifts Funds Rate

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Mortgage applications increased 3.0% (-51.6% y/y) in the week ended March 17 following a 6.5% advance in the prior week. It was the third consecutive weekly gain. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

Applications to refinance an existing loan increased 4.9% (-68.4% y/y) following a 4.8% gain. It also was the third straight weekly rise. Purchase loan applications improved for the third straight month. The 2.2% gain (-36.2% y/y) followed a 7.3% increase.

The percentage of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 28.6% in the week ended March 17 from 28.2% in the previous week. The percentage of ARM loan applications edged higher to 8.6% from 8.5% in the prior week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan eased to 6.67% last week from 6.94% in the week previous. This compares to an average of 6.68% for the four weeks of February. The effective rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages declined to 6.17% from 6.33% in the prior week. It was the lowest rate in five weeks, down from a 6.77% high in the third week of October. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans fell to 6.46% from 6.56% in the week of March 10. The rate on a 5-year ARM fell to 5.86%, down from a 6.21% high early in November.

The average loan size rose 1.8% (0.4% y/y) to $389,000 in the week ended March 17. The series high of $401,900 was reached in the week ended May 6, 2022. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.6% (-4.9%) in the latest week to $437,700. The average loan size to refinance a mortgage gained 3.8% (-10.2% y/y) to $267,700.

The Mortgage Bankers Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- Refinancing & purchase loans both rise.
- Interest rates decline again.

Mortgage Applications Continue to Increase

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Manufacturing activity in Texas continued to weaken this month, according to the  Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The general business activity index of –15.7  compared to -13.5 in February; it’s been negative since last May. The latest reading compared to a low of -23.7 in July of last year.  A slightly improved 12.6% of respondents reported improved business activity in March, down from 17.2% in January. An increased 28.3% of respondents reported a worsening of business conditions, the most in three months. The company outlook index improved slightly to -13.3 in March from -17.5 in February, but it has been negative since March, 2022. Data were collected from March 14-22 from 92 Texas manufacturers.

The shipments index fell to -10.5 from -5.0 and stood at its lowest level since May 2020, down from 26.1 in November 2021. A greatly lessened 19.1% of respondents reported more shipments while a fairly steady 29.6% reported a decline. The hours-worked measure declined to 2.6 from 4.9. It was the weakest measure in four months.

To the upside, the employment index rose to 10.4 from -1.0 as a greatly increased 24.1% of respondents reported a rise in hiring, while a lessened 13.7% reported a decline. The production index improved to 2.5 in March from -2.8 in February. A slightly lessened 23.3% of respondents reported higher production while a greatly fewer 20.8% reported a decline. The growth rate of orders index rose this month to -15.2 from -16.9 in February, but has been negative since May of last year. The unfilled orders reading rose to -9.4 from -13.3.

Inflation indicators fell this month. The index for prices received for finished goods declined to 7.0 from 15.8. It was the lowest reading since November 2020. It was down from a high of  51.3 high in October 2021. A lessened 17.7% of respondents reported raising prices while an increased 10.7% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials weakened to 20.3 this month, the lowest level since July 2020, significantly below 73.4 last March and an 84.1 high in November 2021.

Expectations for future manufacturing activity deteriorated this month. The future general business activity index stood at -11.2 in March, its 11th consecutive negative reading. The future production index fell to 13 .5 from 21.3  as the future employment index also dropped sharply to its lowest level in five months. The future shipments index weakened as did the hours-worked measure. Showing improvement, the future capital spending measure rose to its highest level since July of last year.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- General business activity slips; expectations deteriorate.
- Shipments & hours-worked drop, but employment & production improve.
- Pricing & wage pressures diminish.

Texas Manufacturing Activity Indexes Remain Negative in March

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A Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey has produced significantly and broadly better data in its March survey, both for sales and orders in March and for expectations for the month ahead in April.

Comparing sales to a year ago in March, the reading relative to February was slightly weaker ticking down to a +1 from +2; however, both readings are leagues better than the January reading of -23 for sales performance relative to a year ago. 

Orders compared to a year ago improved sharply in March to -2 from -25 in February and -32 in January.

Sales for the time of year in March moved up to a +12 reading from +6 in February and -3 in January.

The performance of stocks of goods relative to sales showed inventories at a + 10 in March compared to +8 in February and that compared to +23 in January. The stock-sales ratios data have to be analyzed in conjunction with the performance of sales trends. The notion that inventories are still improving and sales are improving can regarded as a positive development. The stronger increase in inventories back in January when sales were declining probably referred to unintended increases in inventories and that was not a positive or a strong reading at that time.

Looking ahead, expected April sales compared to a year ago have a + 9 reading compared to -18 in March and readings of -15 and -17 in the two earlier months.

Orders compared to a year ago have a net zero assessment in April; that compares to a -23 reading for March, -19 for February, and -23 for January. Once again, we see significant improving trends even though the net reading for April is only zero.

Expected sales adjusted for the time of year are at +13 for April, up from +11 in March and much stronger than -2 in February and +2 in January.

Stock sales ratios have a +6 reading for April, below 23 for March, 12 for February and 8 for January. But significantly, the reading is still positive and it's occurring at a time when sales are advancing more strongly and when orders are no longer falling.

In the far-right hand column, we can vet these readings for March for current data and for April for expected data compared to their historic trends. Even though we are looking at improvement, the state of the current readings is still relatively weak. Sales compared to a year ago have a 34-percentile standing, meaning that they have been weaker 34% of the time and stronger nearly 2/3 of the time. Orders compared to a year ago have a 41.6 percentile standing, closer to their median reading which occurs at a value of 50%. The time period being studied in this case is back to June 1998. Sales for the time of year are actually quite strong on this timeline; they have an 83.9 percentile standing indicating they are stronger less than 17% of the time. The stock sales ratio has an 18.5 percentile standing indicating that although positive it's still relatively low.

Turning to expectations for April, we once again find a slew of relatively weak readings with standings below their 50th percentile in all cases except for once again sales for time of year. Expected sales for time of year in April have an 84.6 percentile standing, quite similar to the standing for current performance in March. Sales compared to a year ago have 38.5 percentile standing and orders compared to a year ago have a 42.1 percentile standing; both of these are about equally weak below their key neutrality value of a 50 percentile standing. The stock sales ratio has a 13.7 percentile standing for its April expectations, slightly weaker than its current standing in March.

U.K. reports actual retail sales volume data through February; as of February, sales we're falling year-over-year by 3.5%, less weakness than the 5.1% 12-month decline logged in January. The 12-month percent change over the last 12 months has been on the order of 5% so U.K. real retail sales have been weak for some time. The queue standing for the U.K. retail sales series evaluates the year-over-year growth in sales volumes as at a 5.4 percentile standing – an extremely weak reading. This reading has been weaker only about 5% of the time. The CBI survey data are showing a lot more strength than that.

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