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HaverView

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MATLAB

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Stata

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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Even with strong capex, US nonfinancial corporations are generating more cash than they are investing

Michael J. Moran

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Housing activity has been sluggish in the past few years, with private residential construction making negative contributions to GDP growth in seven of the past 10 quarters. The constraints have been small, averaging -0.06 percentage point, but a drag nonetheless (chart, upper left). The third quarter is on track for another negative contribution, as housing starts in July and August trail the average in the prior quarter by 3.9%.

Total housing starts in August were soft, declining 2.6%. The drop occurred from an upward revised reading in July (5.7% firmer than previously believed), but the initial reading was not impressive, and the adjusted level was still in the low portion of the recent range. The drop in August pushed total starts further into the low portion of the range (the fourth lowest since the start of 2023; chart, upper right).

It is tempting to dismiss the decline in August as random volatility, as the change was dominated by a retreat in the volatile multi-family sector (off 21.7%). We have seen similar degrees of multi-family noise in other recent months (-41.4% in May and a rebound of 83.3% in June). As such, there is a good chance that September will show a pickup in multi-family starts. However, a focus on trends still suggests a soft tone in housing.

In seeking to identify housing trends, building permits, because they are less volatile, provide more insight than starts do. Single-family permits trended lower during much of 2024 and early 2025, and they have moved sideways since late last year, signaling little chance of a positive contribution to economic growth (chart, lower left). Multi-family permits drifted upward during 2025, but they have turned a corner so far this year, as shown by the six-month average in the lower right chart. The recent increase in long-term interest rates (up approximately one-half percentage point since June) leads one to worry about a softening in housing trends.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- A drop in multi-family activity in August offset a gain in the single-family sector.
- Q3 shaping up to be another soft quarter for housing.

Housing Starts: Upward Revisions to June & July, but a Drop in August

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped by 10,000 to 196,000 in the week ending September 12 from an unrevised level of 206,000 in the week ending September 5. The four-week average was 203,250 in the September 12 week, down from 206,000 in the September 5 week, also unrevised. Claims have been largely range-bound at historically low levels between 200,000 and 230,000. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 206,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”— dropped 39,000 to 1.730 million in the week ending September 5, down from 1.769 million in the week in the week ending August 29, revised from 1.774 million. The four-week moving average was 1.761 million in the September 5 week, down from 1.778 million in the August 29 week. The insured unemployment rate remained edged down to 1.1% in the September 5 week from 1.2% in the week of August 29, and the first drop since the April 25 week.

The insured unemployment rate varies greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending August 29, the highest unemployment rates were in Massachusetts (2.03%), Puerto Rico (2.57%), and New Jersey (2.58%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.21%), Florida (0.34%), Louisiana (0.34%), Alabama (0.35%), Kentucky (0.36%), North Carolina (0.37%), Arkansas (0.42%), Nebraska (0.43%), Iowa and North Dakota (both 0.44%), Tennessee (0.45%), Kansas (0.46%), Idaho (0.47%), and Wyoming (0.48%). Rates in other notable states include Texas (1.01%), Pennsylvania (1.39%), Illinois (1.41%), New York (1.72%) and California (1.78%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims declined by 10,000 to 196,000 in the week of September 12.
- Continuing claims dropped by 39,000 to 1.730 million in the week ending September 5.
- The insured unemployment rate inched down to 1.1% in the week of September 5, the first drop since April 25.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Dropped in the Week of September 12

Robert Brusca

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Inflation in the euro area rose by 0.4% in August after gaining 0.5% in July on the heels of a 0.1% decline in June. Sequentially, euro area inflation is up by 3.3% over 12 months, accelerates to a 4.5% annual rate over six months, and then settles back to a 3.4% pace over three months. Inflation is more excessive and stubborn than it is threatening.

Inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food rose a skinny 0.1% in August after a 0.3% gain in July and a 0.1% increase in June. This version of core inflation is up by 2.4% over 12 months and six months and then settles down to a 2.3% annual rate over three months. The ex-food, alcohol & tobacco core measure, similarly posted restrained monthly gains, with a sequential profile matching the ex-energy & ex-unprocessed food progression.

**A cautious ECB**
On balance, headline inflation is too high largely because of energy, and this is not a surprise. However, core inflation is much closer to being in target. Still, it is excessive over 12 months, six months, and three months, but it's not even 1/2 of one percentage point too high at an annualized rate. Still, it is consistently higher by 0.3% to 0.4% on an annual rate. With energy prices flaring, the ECB is being careful.

**Inflation pressure is not growing in breadth**
The details of inflation for the EMU 21-member inflation measure are similar to those headlines in the core inflation progressions. The details on inflation show that inflation is not broadly accelerating. Diffusion measures, which chronicle the proportion of categories with inflation accelerating, showed very restrained sub-50% readings for August and June, even though July’s relatively hotter increase showed inflation accelerating in nearly 85% of the categories. However, that bad-news month was sandwiched in between two good-news months. Looking at inflation over 12 months, six months, and three months, the diffusion progressions step down from 69.2% over 12 months to 53.8% over six months and to 30.8% over three months.  Inflation's breadth has been pulling back progressively.

Inflation is consistently accelerating for furnishings, household equipment & maintenance, healthcare, and communications. However, those are the only three categories that show inflation consistently higher over 12 months, six months, and three months. Inflation is consistently lower over those three periods for alcoholic beverages & tobacco and for recreation & culture.

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**Summing up**
On balance, the ECB seems to be in a pretty good place with inflation growth in the monetary union, while economic growth has been somewhat irregular, with the recent industrial production report slightly disappointing. Globally, oil prices are still high and possibly even firmer. There isn’t much evidence in the monetary union that inflation pressures have spread to other prices. But one reason that's true is that the central bank is being vigilant. Interest rate hikes will never roll back oil prices, but interest rate hikes are a way to remind businesses that the central bank is watching and trying to limit the impact of oil prices when they rise and stop them from mushrooming across industries. The ECB is doing a good job of that.

Europe

EMU Inflation Pressure Remain over the Top but Not Intensifying

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total retail sales rose a larger-than-expected 1.2% m/m to $773.9 billion in August, the sixth monthly gain in seven months, after a 0.5% decline in July (-0.6% initially) and a 0.3% increase in June (+0.2% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed, pointing to resilient consumer spending and solid domestic demand in Q3 2026. A 0.8% m/m August rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 6.0% in August from 5.0% in July (4.7% in August 2025), while remaining well below a high of 17.1% in February 2022 and a record high of 51.8% in April 2021.

Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales grew a greater-than-expected 1.4% (6.9% y/y) in August, the first m/m rise since May, following a 0.2% decline in July (-0.3% initially). A 0.5% m/m August increase had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts rose 0.6% (2.1% y/y), up for the third time in four months, after a 1.8% July drop; this compared to a 2.0% gain (1.3% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales following a 1.0% July decrease.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rebounded 1.4% (5.6% y/y) in August, the seventh m/m gain in eight months, following a 0.4% decline in July, pointing to solid underlying consumer demand in Q3 2026. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials climbed 1.3% (5.7% y/y), up for the seventh time in eight months, after a 0.2% July decline.

Sales by category mostly increased in August. Posting the largest m/m gain among major categories, gasoline station sales jumped 3.1% (21.0% y/y) in August, the first m/m increase since May, after a 0.2% decrease in July. Nonstore retail sales recovered 2.6% (9.9% y/y), the seventh rise in eight months, following a 1.7% July drop. Miscellaneous store sales rebounded 1.9% (14.0% y/y), the third m/m gain in four months, after a 0.6% July slide. Electronics & appliance store sales rose 1.6% (7.8% y/y), the second m/m increase in three months, following a 0.1% July slip. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales advanced 1.2% (10.7% y/y), the seventh consecutive m/m gain, on top of a 0.2% July increase. Furniture & home furnishing store sales grew 0.9% (1.9% y/y), the first m/m rise in three months, after a 0.2% July decline. Clothing & accessory store sales rose 0.7% (4.3% y/y), up for the third time in four months, following a 1.3% July gain. Meanwhile, general merchandise store sales climbed 0.7% (4.5% y/y) in August after a 0.5% increase in July; within this category, department store sales fell 0.8% (+1.9% y/y) following a flat July reading. Building materials & garden equipment store sales decreased 0.2% (+5.1% y/y) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline in July (+0.3% initially) and eight straight m/m gains.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales rose 0.9% (+1.9% y/y) in August, the third m/m rise in four months, after a 0.3% increase in July. Food & beverage store sales recovered 0.4% (0.5% y/y) after declining 0.2% in July and June.

Consumers appeared to dine out more frequently in August despite still-elevated inflation (August CPI +0.4% m/m, +3.4% y/y; core CPI +0.3% m/m, +2.4% y/y). Restaurant & drinking place sales advanced 1.2% (+5.8% y/y) in August, the fifth successive m/m gain, after a 0.5% increase in July.

**Note**: The Federal Reserve unanimously voted to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The statement issued following today's FOMC meeting is available [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm).

Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total retail sales +1.2% (+6.0% y/y) in August; sixth m/m increase in seven mths.
- Ex-auto sales +1.4% (+6.9% y/y), first m/m rise since May; auto sales +0.6% (+2.1% y/y), third rise in four mths.
- Ex-gas sales +1.1% (+4.9% y/y) and ex-auto & gas sales +1.2% (+5.6% y/y); both up m/m from Jan. through Aug. except July.
- Retail control group +1.4% (+5.6% y/y), seventh m/m gain in eight mths., pointing to solid underlying consumer demand in Q3 ’26.
- Gains m/m: gasoline stations (+3.1%), nonstore sales (+2.6%), misc. stores (+1.9%), electronics stores (+1.6%).
- Declines m/m: department stores (-0.8%), building materials & garden equipt. stores (-0.2%).

U.S. Retail Sales Rebound in August, Exceeding Forecasts

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The monetary union graphic seems to show some very gradual longer-term progress underway based on looking at the year-over-year trends by sector. However, the shorter-term trends in the table, for a year and under, are not quite so supportive of optimism.

**Monthly**
Monthly data show that industrial production has really been fluctuating around a zero-growth rate for the last three months, with a July and June drop of 0.1% versus a May increase of 0.2%. Looking at manufacturing alone, there was a drop in July of 0.3%, a June drop of 0.3%, and a flat performance in May. None of this speaks of growing optimism.

**Sectors**
The consolidated monthly sector results show output gains in May and June for consumer goods but a substantial 1.5% drop in July. Intermediate goods output declined in May and June versus a small increase in July. Capital goods output was simply ragged, with a 0.4% increase in May, a 1.8% decline in June, and a 0.5% increase in July; it's hard to know what to make of that choppy performance.

**Sequential growth in output**
Switching over to look at the sequential trends, that is, the pattern of growth rates from 12 months to six months to three months, what you see for the headline series is output falling by 0.2% over 12 months, rising at a 2.3% annual rate over six months, and then going flat over three months. Manufacturing industrial production shows an erratic loss and gain, and then a loss over three months. Consumer goods are encouraging on this timeline, with output falling by 4.4% over 12 months, rising by 5.9% at an annual rate over six months, and accelerating to a 13% annual rate over three months. Both consumer durables and nondurables output show acceleration; this is a rare bright spot in this report. Intermediate goods output shows acceleration from 12 months to six months and then a step back from a six-month growth rate of 2.5% to a 4% decline at an annual rate. Capital goods have the same characteristics, with a 12-month and six-month gain on the books and then a 3.8% annual rate decline over three months.

**Quarter-to-date trends**
Quarter-to-date data, which is a nascent calculation since this report is for July, show declines underway for overall output, manufacturing, intermediate goods, and capital goods. The consumer goods categories are all showing increases in the quarter to date to offset the weakness in intermediate and capital goods, but still not enough to put an increase into the headlines.

**Percentile standings**
The percentile standings, which rate the growth rates in a historic context since late 2006, show that only intermediate goods have an annual growth rate that registers above its median, and even then, it only has a 54.2 percentile standing. Capital goods come close to a neutral standing with a 46.2 percentile standing but consumer goods’ annual growth rate is very weak and logs a bottom-10-percentile standing.

**Country detail monthly**
Country detail is not very reassuring, with six monetary union countries showing declines in July, the same as in June, compared to seven showing declines in May. This is for a small group of 12 countries that we track in the table. The medians for this group show declines in May, June, and July.

**Countries sequentially**
Tracking the sequential trends for these 12 countries produces eight declines over three months, six declines over six-months, and seven declines over 12 months. The medians for each span are negative growth rates, and the negative growth rates get larger from 12 months to six months to three months, not a reassuring development. Also, statistics on the percent of reporters accelerating are below 50% for all periods. Over three-months, 18.2% of the countries are showing acceleration compared to six months, while over 12 months only 9.1% of the reporters are showing acceleration compared to the previous 12-month period.

**Percentile standing by countries: weakness prevails**
Among the countries, only four show industrial production with year-over-year growth rates above their historic medians. The Netherlands leads the pack with a 93.3 percentile standing, followed by Finland with an 81.9 percentile standing, Malta with a 55.5 percentile standing, and Spain with a 52.9 percentile. The three largest monetary union economies have industrial production with annual growth rates ranking in the 20th percentile for Germany and France, while Italy is in its 47th percentile.

**Summing up**
The weak showing in the latest data embodies weak trends. Recent months are weak as well, but more in a floundering way than in a deteriorating way. But the three-month growth rates taken together show more weakness than floundering. It’s not a reassuring report.

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IP in EMU Shows Weakness Persists

Sandy Batten

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Import prices increased 0.7% m/m (7.0% y/y) in August after a revised 0.3% m/m decline in July (previously -0.4% m/m). The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.1% m/m decline. Export prices increased 0.6% m/m (8.6% y/y) in August following monthly declines in both June and July. The Action Economics Survey expected a 0.5% m/m decline. Note that import and export price indexes are not directly affected by tariffs because they measure the prices of goods before taxes. Tariffs are classified as taxes and therefore are excluded from these calculations.

Declines in petroleum prices led to monthly declines in the overall import and export prices in both June and July. However, petroleum prices edged up 0.1% m/m in August. Import prices excluding petroleum jumped 0.8% m/m (5.5% y/y) in August, the largest monthly increase in four months and the highest y/y rate since May 2022. Higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials (2.0% m/m, the largest monthly increase since February), capital goods (0.9% m/m) and consumer goods excluding automotives (0.5% m/m) drove the increase in August.

Agricultural export prices rose 0.5% m/m (5.8% y/y) in August while nonagricultural export prices jumped 0.7% m/m (8.9% y/y), the first monthly increase in three months. Agricultural export prices have not declined on a monthly basis since December 2025. Higher prices for corn and animal feeds more than offset lower prices for meat. Nonagricultural export prices had fallen in both June and July, aided by falling petroleum prices. Higher prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials (1.4% m/m after declines in both June and July), capital goods (0.2% m/m) and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines (0.3% m/m) drove the increase.

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Counter to market expectations for small declines, both import and export prices rose meaningfully in August.
- Import prices increased 0.7% m/m while export prices rose 0.6% m/m. Both had fallen in June and July, helped by falling petroleum prices.
- Petroleum prices edged up 0.1% m/m in August.
- Price increases were relatively widespread across end-use categories.

U.S. Import and Export Prices Jump in August

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Mortgage applications fell 4.1% w/w (-40.2% y/y) in the week ending September 11, after declining 2.7% w/w (-19.2% y/y) in the week ending September 4, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 0.8% w/w (-10.2% y/y) in the latest week, after edging down 0.2% w/w (-6.9% y/y) in the September 4 week. Applications for loan refinancing fell 8.8% w/w (-60.7% y/y) in the September 11 week following a decline of 6.2% w/w (-32.1% y/y) in the September 4 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 13bps to 7.18% in the week ending September 11 from 7.05% in the week ending September 4, reaching its highest level since late January 2025. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 15bps to 6.55% in the September 11 week from 6.40% in the September 4 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 27bps to 7.20% in the latest week from 6.93% in the September 4 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM soared 46bps to 6.59% in the September 11 week from 6.13% in the September 4 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 39.4% of total applications in the week of September 11 from 40.9% in the week ending September 4. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity fell to 8.4% in the latest week from 8.5% in the September 4 week.

The average size of a mortgage fell 0.5% w/w (-16.3% y/y) to $378,400 in the week ending September 11, after rising 2.1% w/w (-5.2% y/y) to $380,200 in the week ending September 4. The average size of a purchase loan declined 0.7% w/w to $442,500 in the September 11 week after rising 1.5% w/w to $445,600 in the September 4 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage fell 2.1% w/w to $279,800 in the week ending September 11 after rising 2.1% w/w to $285,800 in the September 4 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase a house and applications for loan refinancing both declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose 13bp to 7.18%.
- Average loan size fell moderately in the September 11 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Declined in the September 11 Week

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The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions fell sharply to a lower-than-expected 7.6 in September following a 5.0-point increase to 20.6 in August, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. A reading of 14.1 for September had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The positive September figure indicated that business activity in New York State expanded for the sixth straight month but at the slowest pace since June and well below August’s level (the highest since December 2021). Nevertheless, it was a sharp improvement from -7.0 in September 2025 and a low of -29.7 in January 2024. The percentage of respondents reporting an increase in general business conditions was 33.9% in September, down from 43.8% in August; the percentage reporting a decrease was 26.3%, up from August’s 23.1%. The latest survey was conducted between September 2 and September 10.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity and is not calculated from the components. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. This calculated index eased to 53.7 in September following a 2.1-point decline to 55.4 in August, representing the ninth consecutive expansion but at the slowest pace in three months; it was up from 46.1 in September 2025 and well above a low of 43.0 in January 2024. The index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories, with equal weights (20% each).

In the latest survey, the new orders index fell to 2.0 in September after a 4.9-point decrease to 17.3 in August, marking the weakest of nine successive months of expansion; it was a sharp improvement from a low of -30.7 in January 2024 but a drop from a high of 19.6 in April 2023. The shipments index plunged to -3.2 in September following a 12.7-point fall to 11.7 in August, representing the first negative shipments reading since March; it was well above a low of -21.7 in April 2024 but below a high of 21.0 in June 2023. The unfilled orders index fell to 5.9 in September after a 10.5-point jump to 15.5 in August, indicating unfilled orders expanded for the eighth straight month but at a slower pace; the index reached a low of -24.2 in January 2024. The inventories index rebounded to 8.9 in September following a 9.2-point slide to -5.2 in August, signaling inventory growth at the strongest rate since May. Meanwhile, the delivery times index slipped to 18.8 in September from 20.6 in August (the highest reading since April 2022), with 25.7% of respondents reporting longer delivery times and 6.9% reporting shorter times, indicating that delivery times continued to lengthen.

On the labor front, the number of employees index rose to 10.6 in September after a 2.1-point decline to 9.3 in August, indicating employment expanded for the eighth straight month. The index remained well above a low of -9.3 in December 2023 but below a peak of 24.9 in February 2022. In September, 19.0% of respondents reported an increase in employment while 8.4% reported a decline. The average workweek index jumped to 17.0 in September from 6.9 in August, remaining positive for the eighth month running and at the strongest level since November 2021.

Inflation pressures remained elevated in September. The prices paid index advanced to 63.1 in September, the highest level since July 2022, after a 6.3-point rise to 58.6 in August. The index was above a low of 25.9 in December 2024 and a low of 19.9 in July 2023, albeit remaining well below a peak of 84.9 in April 2022. In September, 63.7% of respondents reported higher prices paid while only 0.6% reported lower prices paid. The prices received index increased to 28.1 in September, a three-month high, from 22.7 in August. The index was above a low of 7.5 in December 2024 and a low of 7.7 in July 2023 but far below a high of 51.9 in March 2022. In September, 30.6% of respondents reported higher prices received while 2.6% reported lower prices received.

Firms remained optimistic about the future business outlook in the latest survey. The index for future business conditions eased to 29.0 in September, the 17th straight month of positive readings, after a 4.2-point gain to 32.1 in August, with 50.5% of respondents expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months. Future new orders pulled back to 25.3 in September, the lowest level since April, from 37.1 in August; future shipments slid to 25.5, a five-month low, from 33.7. Growth in future employment decelerated to 20.0 in September from 28.2 in August (the strongest reading since March 2022). Capital spending plans remained positive for the 11th consecutive month in September, with the future capital expenditures index easing to 14.9, a three-month low, from August’s 16.5. Expected prices paid climbed to 67.3 in September, the highest level since June 2022, from 57.7 in August, while expected prices received declined to 42.3 from 48.7.

The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- General Business Conditions Index down 13.0 pts. to 7.6 in Sept.; sixth straight expansion.
- New orders (2.0), down 15.3 pts.; weakest level since Dec. ’25, still indicating expansion.
- Shipments (-3.2), down 14.9 pts.; first negative reading since March.
- Unfilled orders (5.9), down 9.6 pts. but staying positive; inventories (8.9), highest since May.
- Employment (10.6), up 1.3 pts.; eighth consecutive expansion.
- Prices paid (63.1), highest since July '22; prices received (28.1), a three-month high.
- Firms still optimistic: Future Business Conditions Index down to a still-expansionary 29.0; future prices paid rising to 67.3, highest since June ’22.

U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Cools Sharply in September

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.04 in August from an upwardly revised +0.08 in July (-0.08 initially) and a downwardly revised -0.01 in June (+0.06 previously), today’s report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed, indicating that economic activity was below its historical trend for the third time in four months in August after slightly above the historical trend in July. The latest CFNAI was above a low of -0.50 in October 2025 and a reading of -0.36 in August 2025 but below a high of +0.39 in February 2025.

The index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, increased to +0.01 in August from an upwardly revised -0.01 in July (-0.04 initially), registering the second positive reading in three months. It was above a low of -0.39 in October 2025 and -0.14 in August 2025 but below a recent high of +0.08 in April. The CFNAI-MA3 is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the Chicago Fed indicates that an average reading of -0.70 or below is consistent with the economy being in a recession. Thus, the August reading suggested that the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession.

The August reading reflected m/m declines in two of the four CFNAI key components and one negative contribution. The contribution of the Production & Income index to the CFNAI decreased to -0.07 in August, the lowest reading since January, from a neutral value (0.00) in July and June; it was below a high of +0.37 in February 2025 but above -0.13 in August 2025 and a low of -0.61 in January 2024. The contribution of the Sales, Orders & Inventories index fell to a neutral 0.00 in August, matching the lowest level since May, from +0.15 in July; it was below a high of +0.16 in March 2025 but above -0.08 in August 2025 and a low of -0.20 in April 2025. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours index contributed +0.01 in August, the highest reading since April, up from -0.01 in July; it was above a low of -0.13 in February 2026 and -0.12 in August 2025 but below a high of +0.05 in January 2026. The contribution of the Personal Consumption & Housing index rose to +0.01 in August, the second positive reading in three months, from -0.06 in July; it was above -0.03 in August 2025 and a low of -0.14 in January 2025 but below a high of +0.10 in March 2025.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index—which measures the breadth of change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average—slipped to +0.02 in August, the sixth consecutive positive reading, from a downwardly revised +0.04 in July (+0.05 initially). A string of negative readings was posted during the March 2023 to February 2026 period. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. The August reading was above a low of -0.56 in October 2025 and -0.18 in August 2025 but below a high of +0.15 in September 2022.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- CFNAI down to -0.04 in Aug., negative for the third time in four mths.
- Two of four CFNAI components down m/m; one makes a negative contribution.
- CFNAI-MA3 up to +0.01, second positive reading in three mths.; above -0.70 (recession signal).
- CFNAI Diffusion Index down to +0.02, still positive for the sixth straight mth.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Negative in August After July’s Upwardly Revised Positive Level

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**TRANSPRT** → Passenger Statistics → Comunidad de **Madrid** Public Transport Ridership

Public transportation ridership data for Madrid was added to the **TRANSPRT** database. These data cover the four major transit modes operating across Madrid — the Metro, the public city bus, interurban bus and commuter rail - along with an aggregate for total ridership. Daily data are sourced from Consorcio Regional de Transportes de Madrid and start as early as January 2010.

Chart: Madrid achieved an all-time record in 2025 with over 1.75 billion passengers across its entire public transport system, representing a 3.75% increase over 2024 – and the momentum continues into 2026 where the YTD figures are currently higher than in 2025. The Metro is the clear workhorse with 45.3% of all trips in the region being made on the Madrid underground. Metro ridership grew 3% to reach 736.9 million passengers in 2025. The overall ridership story in Madrid is one of strong urban mobility expansion, particularly centered on its Metro system.

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**ENERGY** → Petroleum → Petroleum Product Prices Including Pump Prices → **Latvia**

Retail fuel prices for Latvia were added to the **ENERGY** database. Series reported in EUR per liter are available for 95 and 98 octane petrol, diesel and autogas which is LPG primarily used as an alternative fuel for vehicles. Monthly data are sourced from the Central Statistics Bureau and start in January 2005.

Chart: Fuel prices in Latvia hit historic lows in May 2020, reflecting the global economic shock from the pandemic and collapsed oil demand. Prices then surged dramatically, with the peak reaching 2.117 EUR/liter for petrol 98 in mid-2022 driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This was a watershed moment that permanently shifted prices to a higher baseline. Prices again spiked in May 2026 caused by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Latvia is especially exposed to these global supply disruptions since it has no domestic production of crude oil or petroleum products.

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- Number of enterprises by age of owner and revenue threshold for Canada were added to **CANADA** and **CANADAR**. 
- Public transportation ridership data for Madrid was added to the **TRANSPRT** database.
- Retail fuel prices for Latvia were added to the **ENERGY** database.

Featured Data Additions, September 2, 2026

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we assess whether Asia is really moving away from the dollar by examining its US asset holdings, reserves, gold purchases and trade settlement. We then turn to Japan’s monetary normalisation. Asia’s presence in US portfolio markets has declined since the early 2010s (chart 1). Japan's share of foreign holdings of US long-term securities has halved, and mainland China's has fallen further still. The euro area and the UK have absorbed most of that ground. Even so, Japan is still the largest foreign holder of Treasuries, and a reshuffling among creditors need not mean an exit from dollar assets. Official reserves tell a similar story (chart 2). The dollar's share is down close to 6 percentage points over eight years, to 57.1%, yet no single currency has picked up all of it. The residual group of other currencies gained most, which points to diversification rather than substitution. Gold fits that reading (chart 3), with Singapore, India, Thailand and China all adding heavily in volume terms. Reserve growth alone may explain part of the rise. Trade settlement has moved least of all (chart 4). South Korea still settles about 84% of exports and 79% of imports in dollars, and broader studies point the same way. Moving to Japan, the central bank raised its policy rate to 1.25% last week, with Governor Ueda striking a hawkish note (chart 5). The spread to Fed, ECB and Bank of England policy rates has narrowed to about 2 percentage points. The yen, meanwhile, has rebounded from a record low after coordinated intervention, while the 10-year JGB yield has touched 3% (chart 6).

**Gold, the US, and the US dollar**
Asia's footprint in US portfolio markets has thinned considerably since the early 2010s (chart 1). Japan's share of overall foreign holdings of US long-term securities has roughly halved, from a peak near 14.5% in 2012 to about 8% in July 2026. Mainland China's slide is starker, from 13.4% at the start of 2012 to roughly 3%. The euro area has absorbed most of that ground, rising from about 19% to around 26%, while the UK sits at a record 10.6%. Japan nonetheless remains the largest foreign holder of Treasuries at USD 1.1tn, while China's holdings have slipped to USD 618bn, the lowest since September 2008. A reshuffling among creditors is not always the same as an exit from dollar assets. Japan also remains Asia's largest holder on both sides of the ledger, accounting for about 8.6% of US holdings of foreign securities.

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The de-dollarisation debate has a second front in the currency composition of official reserves (chart 2). The dollar's share has fallen by close to 6 percentage points over the past eight years, to 57.1% in the first quarter of 2026. The more revealing question is where that share went. No single currency has picked up all of it. The yen gained less than 1 percentage point, the Canadian dollar and the renminbi around half a point each, while the euro barely moved. The largest beneficiary was the residual group of other currencies, up some 3.7 points. That looks like diversification rather than a search for one alternative, and the renminbi's 2.0% share underlines the point.

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The same message shows up in gold, where volumes rather than values are the cleaner measure (chart 3). In volume terms, Singapore has added more than 60% to its holdings over the past eight years. India and Thailand are up by more than half, and China by close to 30%. Japan, Indonesia and Malaysia have made smaller additions, while the Philippines has cut its stock by about a third over two major bouts. Exceptions aside, and given the seemingly concerted accumulation of gold among Asian central banks, diversification is one reading. A simpler explanation, which may hold at the same time, is that reserves have grown overall, and gold holdings have had to rise in proportion.

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