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Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Robert Brusca

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The Belgian consumer may be on the edge of a sudden deterioration based on responses to the National Bank of Belgium Consumer Survey for March. The consumer confidence reading registered at -6 in March compared to +1 in February. And on data back to 1991, this gives the consumer confidence metric a ranking in its 53rd percentile, slightly above the median for this span. For ranked data, the median occurs at the 50th percentile.

However, the response by consumers to the current situation appraisal gives them an extremely high 94.9 percentile ranking which suggests that the Belgian consumer is quite happy; however, the financial situation for households as appraised over the next 12 months has a reading of -3 in March, with a queue percentile standing at a 23.9 percentile mark in the lower quartile of its ranked responses since 1991. It's clearly a very difficult situation to be extremely happy with the current situation but to be concerned about your financial situation over the next 12 months.

Households rate the next 12 months as relatively inhospitable to make major household purchases as well. The reading at -17 in March is just a tick higher than -18 in February and has a rank standing in its 39.5 percentile. Despite the upbeat ranking of the current situation, households do not rank the current situation as a good time to buy as the favorability to purchase goods at present has a ranking in its 13.8 percentile. Clearly, the Belgian consumer is facing cross-currents and a deteriorating trend.

Among those cross-currents, however, is not a great concern about unemployment. The unemployment reading did rise month-to-month to -3 in March from -11 in February and from -20 in January. Concerns about unemployment have been rising; however, they still have a very low 5.5 percentile standing.

One of the concerns percolating in the background is about inflation. Price trends over the last 12 months had eased to some extent, to 66.2 percentile standing. However, over the next 12 months the reading has picked up to 53 from 31 previously, to a 99.5 percentile standing; concerns about inflation have turned around and now are extremely high.

Consumers rate the economic situation at a -45 in March compared to -25 in February looking ahead to the next 12 months. The queue standing for this reading is in its 0.7 percentile, one of the lowest ratings that we have seen since 1991. The assessment for the previous 12 months has a raw diffusion net score of -42, with the standing in its 23rd percentile. Conditions have deteriorated extremely rapidly in terms of the outlook for the economic situation.

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The survey by the National Bank of Belgium shows the Belgian consumer is going through a significant transition. Concerns about unemployment are not high, but they are deteriorating. Concerns about inflation, however, have ramped up. And concerns about the economic situation ahead have deteriorated to an extreme level. Consumers view their current financial situation as quite good at the moment, but they expect it to deteriorate over the next 12 months. These assessments set a very difficult table for policy for the period ahead.

Belgium

Belgian Consumer on the Edge?

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we take stock of the ongoing Iran conflict, review key developments across Asia, and assess consumer sentiment in the region. The conflict continues to weigh on markets, with oil prices remaining elevated (chart 1). At the same time, global pressure is building against the continued disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, though concrete actions to restore shipments remain uncertain.

Amid this backdrop, several Asian central banks delivered policy decisions last week (chart 2), with the Middle East conflict explicitly cited as a key consideration. In effect, higher oil prices have either reinforced existing tightening biases or reduced the likelihood of rate cuts, reflecting mounting inflation concerns. On the domestic front, Thailand stood out, where Prime Minister Anutin’s decisive parliamentary re-election has eased lingering political uncertainty. Attention now shifts to how the new government will address longstanding challenges, particularly elevated debt levels (chart 3), alongside broader economic reforms. Looking ahead, the regional calendar remains active. Beyond flash PMI releases, focus will turn to Japan’s latest inflation print (chart 4) and China’s industrial profit data.

Turning to the Asian consumer, sentiment in China and Japan has improved in recent months (chart 5), supported in part by government policy and expectations of further consumer-focused measures. However, the Iran conflict poses downside risks, particularly through higher energy prices. Elsewhere in Asia, consumer confidence has stabilised (chart 6), though it remains exposed to similar risks, with the ongoing conflict threatening to weigh on sentiment across the region.

**Iran conflict and energy prices**
The Iran conflict continues to rage, with shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz still heavily constrained. This has kept a tight lid on crude supply, leaving oil prices significantly elevated (chart 1) relative to recent history. The resulting supply drag and price surge are adding upward pressure on inflation and, potentially, weighing on growth—particularly for oil-importing economies across Asia. That said, momentum is building on the diplomatic front. More than 20 countries have now backed a joint statement calling for safe navigation through the strait. Still, it remains unclear how this will translate into concrete actions, or—crucially from an economic perspective—how quickly it might restore disrupted oil flows.

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**Recent central bank decisions in Asia**
As discussed previously, persistently elevated oil prices are likely prompting Asian central banks to reassess their policy stance amid rising inflation risks. This shift was evident in three decisions last week as the Iran conflict continued. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered its second rate hike of the year, explicitly citing the Middle East conflict and warning that short-term inflation expectations have already edged higher (chart 2). Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia—previously expected to ease—held its policy rate steady, pointing to deteriorating global conditions linked to the conflict. In Taiwan, the central bank also kept rates unchanged, citing the Iran conflict and surging energy prices as upside risks to inflation. Taken together, the spillover effects of the Iran conflict are already showing up in policy decisions and are likely to become increasingly evident in upcoming economic data.

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**Thailand’s re-elected Prime Minister**
Turning to Southeast Asia—specifically Thailand—Prime Minister Anutin last week secured a landmark re-election in parliament, winning the backing of 293 out of 499 members. With his party’s recent electoral victory and now firm parliamentary support, a period of relative political stability is in sight, allowing policymakers to refocus on pressing domestic challenges. Attention now turns to how Anutin will steer the economy beyond years of underperformance and tackle longstanding issues, including elevated government and household debt (chart 3), as well as how he navigates external risks stemming from the Middle East conflict—particularly via channels such as higher energy prices and inflation.

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**The week ahead**
Looking to the week ahead, Asia faces a comparatively busier data calendar, with flash PMIs due alongside February releases for Japan’s CPI and China’s industrial profits. In Japan, CPI inflation has eased sharply in recent months (chart 4), with headline inflation dipping below the 2% threshold for the first time in years in January. However, the combination of recent yen weakness and the surge in oil prices could reintroduce inflationary pressures going forward. In China, attention will focus on whether industrial profit growth can build on the recent run of better-than-expected February data, adding further momentum to signs of a stabilising economic backdrop.

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**Asia and consumption**
Amid a fragile global backdrop shaped by the ongoing Iran conflict, the outlook for consumers in Asia remains cautious—particularly for younger cohorts without significant intergenerational wealth buffers. This is compounded by a challenging labour market, where the rise of AI capabilities is, in some cases, weighing on lower- to mid-level white-collar roles. That said, this caution is not yet fully reflected in aggregate consumer confidence readings for China and Japan (chart 5). One reason may be timing, as late-February to March data—when the Iran conflict intensified—are likely not yet captured. In addition, AI-related effects are still gradually feeding through these economies. In China, recent government measures to support consumption may provide a partial offset to these headwinds. In Japan, some of the drag may be mitigated by improving labour market conditions, alongside a degree of optimism surrounding the policies of new Prime Minister Takaichi.

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Beyond the risks discussed above, similar pressures are evident across other Asian economies—albeit to varying degrees, depending on factors such as reliance on imported oil and the health of the labour market. As shown in chart 6, consumer confidence remains uneven across the region. While readings have broadly stabilised in recent months, they remain vulnerable to downside risks, particularly from price pressures linked to the ongoing Iran conflict. Among the economies highlighted, confidence remains relatively weak in Taiwan and Thailand, while South Korea and Indonesia appear more resilient, supported by their respective growth dynamics. Another key metric to watch—where available—is consumers’ price expectations. As awareness of the Iran conflict’s impact deepens, inflation expectations may begin to drift higher, posing additional risks to the regional outlook.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: A Crude Awakening

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Manufacturing output in Japan rose by 4.3% in January after rising by 0.7% in December. Total industrial production rose by 2.8% in January after a flat performance in December. By major sector, consumer goods output, intermediate goods output, and investment goods output all increased in January; each had a strong pace in January after two of three sectors experienced output declines in December and November. However, the output recovery in January is strong and solid, putting the trend for industrial output and manufacturing back on solid footing.

Sequential growth rates in Japan show overall manufacturing is growing over 12 months, six months and three months, without any particular increase or decrease in the underlying trend. The 12-month growth rate is 2.5%, the six month pace is at a 3.6% annual rate, and the three month pace has eased back to 2%.

Sequential growth rates for manufacturing are much more upbeat, with manufacturing up by 2.5% over 12 months, running at an 8.3% annualized pace over six months, and accelerating further to 12.3% at an annual rate over three months.

The main manufacturing sectors also are very upbeat, with consumer goods output rising 1.2% over 12 months, accelerating to a 3.8% pace over six months, and accelerating further to a 6.5% annual rate over three months. Intermediate goods output shows a tendency for acceleration that later calms down over three months. The 12-month pace is 3.1%, the six-month pace rises to 5.7%, and over three months the pace is back down to 4%, which is cooling from the six-month pace, but still an increase from the 12-month rate.

For investment goods, the 12-month growth rate is 3%; it rises to a 9.8% annual rate over six months and accelerates further to a 17.3% annual rate over three months. Investment goods profile is reassuring and even eye-popping, showing significant strength at a time that yen weakness is helping to make production in Japan much more profitable.

Japan is experiencing this improved performance after a long period of underperformance going back to the pre-COVID period. Industry output is 88.2% of its January 2020 level; manufacturing output is 89.4% of what it was in January 2020. By sector, consumer goods output is 87.7% of its January 2020 level, intermediate goods output is 86.5%, and investment goods production is 88.7% of what it was in January 2020.

The quarter-to-date, which is a very nascent figure since this reflects only January data, shows total industry output rising at a 12.7% annual rate, with manufacturing growing at a 27.1% annual rate, supported by double-digit increases in the growth rates of consumer goods, intermediate goods, and investment goods output.

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Although there are concerns about what lies ahead because of the sharp increase in oil prices and the ongoing war in Iran, as of January—before the war broke out—economic data in Japan were solid and strong, with competitiveness underpinned by a weak yen in the face of tariffs imposed by the U.S. as well as pressure by the U.S. for Japan to be somewhat less successful in exporting to the United States.

However, the U.S. and Japan are continuing to form a closer alliance, with new Prime Minister Takaichi gaining newfound support after the snap elections, which gave her a huge boost. The war in Iran is a clear game changer and will be grounds for us to continue to watch with increasing skepticism what the data show in the months ahead. For the moment, Japan looks mighty good.

Japan

Japan’s Manufacturing IP Accelerates

Andrew Cates

**Oil and geopolitical risk**
Our first chart this week highlights the close relationship between geopolitical developments and oil prices, with both series moving sharply higher in recent weeks. The Caldara and Iacoviello geopolitical risk index has surged to levels not seen for some time, reflecting the escalation in tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude prices have responded, rising sharply above recent trading ranges as markets price in the risk of supply disruptions. The speed of the adjustment is notable and consistent with previous episodes where geopolitical shocks have fed rapidly into energy markets. What remains less clear at this stage is whether this represents a temporary spike or the beginning of a more persistent shift in the risk premium embedded in oil prices. Historically, short-lived geopolitical shocks have tended to fade relatively quickly, while more prolonged disruptions—particularly those affecting production or shipping routes—have had more lasting macroeconomic consequences.

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**The structure of global energy demand**
The second chart places the current episode in a longer-term structural context. Despite decades of policy focus on decarbonisation, the global energy mix remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Oil, natural gas and coal continue to account for the majority of primary energy consumption, with renewables increasing their share but from a relatively low base. Nuclear energy has remained broadly stable as a share of the total over the past 10 years. This composition matters because it implies that the global economy remains highly sensitive to disruptions in hydrocarbon supply. While the energy transition is progressing, it has not yet materially reduced exposure to oil price shocks. In practical terms, this means that geopolitical instability in key producing regions—particularly the Middle East—continues to carry significant macroeconomic implications. The persistence of fossil fuel dependence therefore acts as a key transmission mechanism through which geopolitical shocks can influence inflation, growth and financial markets.

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**Energy prices and consumption** 
The third chart highlights an equally important structural backdrop to the current oil shock. Global energy consumption per capita has trended higher over time, driven in large part by the industrialisation and urbanisation of China and, more broadly, the rising energy intensity associated with rapid growth in large emerging economies. At the same time, real consumer energy prices (OECD consumer energy prices deflated by core consumer prices) have also moved higher. The relationship between the two is not accidental. Strong growth in global energy demand—especially from heavy industry and construction—has helped place upward pressure on the real cost of energy over time. This matters because the recent rise in oil prices is not occurring in an environment of weak or stagnant underlying demand. Rather, it is hitting a global system in which energy demand has already been pushed higher by structural forces, while supply has often struggled to expand at the same pace. In that sense, the current geopolitical shock is amplifying an existing pressure point in the world economy.

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**Oil prices and interest rates**
The fourth chart illustrates how movements in energy prices are beginning to influence financial markets, particularly expectations for monetary policy. Short-dated government bond yields in the US, UK and Canada (and other major economies) have moved higher in recent weeks, reflecting a partial repricing of the expected path of policy rates. Markets have priced out much (if not all) of the easing that had previously been anticipated later this year. Historically, oil price increases have tended to affect monetary policy expectations through their impact on inflation. Higher energy prices can push up headline inflation and, if persistent, feed into broader price pressures. However, the adjustment in yields so far has been relatively modest compared with the scale of the move in oil prices. This potentially suggests that markets are not yet fully incorporating a more persistent inflationary shock and may still be assuming that the current rise in energy prices will prove temporary. If that assumption were to change, a more pronounced repricing of interest rate expectations could follow.

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**Sentiment and expectations**
The fifth chart turns to sentiment indicators, focusing in particular on the ZEW economic expectations survey, which often provides an early signal of shifts in the economic outlook. Euro area expectations have shown renewed volatility, with the latest ZEW readings pointing to a deterioration in forward-looking sentiment after a period of gradual improvement. This shift likely reflects rising concerns about the external environment, including higher energy prices and increased geopolitical uncertainty.

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**China and the global backdrop**
The final chart highlights recent developments in China’s investment cycle, where the latest data have surprised modestly to the upside. Fixed asset investment has returned to positive growth in early 2026, driven primarily by a strong pickup in infrastructure spending linked to the early implementation of the new Five-Year Plan. This marks a notable shift from the contraction seen late last year and suggests that policy support could now be gaining traction. Within this, there are tentative signs of stabilisation in the property sector at the margin. While real estate investment remains weak in level terms and house prices continue to decline, the pace of contraction has shown some signs of easing. This is important given the central role that housing has historically played in driving domestic demand.

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The past few weeks have seen a sharp escalation in tensions in the Middle East, triggering a rapid repricing across energy markets and a rise in geopolitical risk (chart 1). This comes at a time when the global economy is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels, leaving it structurally exposed to such shocks (chart 2), while longer-run increases in energy use per capita—driven in large part by industrialisation in China and elsewhere—have contributed to a rise in real energy prices over time (chart 3). Financial markets have been responding, with short-dated bond yields edging higher as expectations of monetary easing are reassessed (chart 4), and forward-looking sentiment indicators are showing early signs of softening (chart 5). At the same time, and of note, there are some tentative signs of stabilisation in parts of the global economy, notably in China where investment has picked up at the margin, supported by policy-led infrastructure spending (chart 6). Even so, it remains early days, and the balance of risks continues to tilt toward a more fragile outlook should the instability in the Middle East persist.

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Charts of the Week: Energy Shock — Early Signals, Uncertain Fallout

Winnie Tapasanun

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New single-family home sales dropped 17.6% m/m (-11.3% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000 units in January—below expectations—following a downwardly revised 6.8% decline to 712,000 in December (initially -1.7%, 745,000) and an upwardly revised 17.5% jump to 764,000 in November (previously +15.5%, 758,000), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected January sales of 725,000. January marked the third m/m decrease in four months, the deepest m/m fall since July 2013, and the lowest level since October 2022, though sales remained 13.1% above the July 2022 low of 519,000. The January m/m sales drop occurred alongside a decline in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.11%, the lowest since September 2022, down from 6.20% in December and 6.96% in January 2025; the rate had subsequently continued trending downward, according to Freddie Mac.

Regionally, January new home sales fell across all four regions. Sales in the Northeast plummeted 44.7% (0.0% y/y) to a six-month-low 26,000 in January, the steepest m/m decrease since February 2023, on top of a 19.0% drop in December. Sales in the Midwest plunged 33.9% (+18.0% y/y) to 72,000, the third m/m decline in four months and the lowest level since March 2025, after a 31.3% December rebound. Sales in the West slumped 21.6% (-28.7% y/y) to a three-month-low 127,000, the first m/m fall since October, following a 1.3% December increase. Sales in the South slid 8.1% (-8.8% y/y) to 362,000, the fourth m/m slide in five months and the lowest level since October 2024, after a 14.9% December drop. The South remained the dominant region, accounting for 61.7% of total U.S. new home sales.

The median sales price of a new home fell 4.5% (-6.8% y/y) to $400,500 in January, the first m/m fall in three months and the lowest level since July 2025, after a 3.6% advance to $419,200 in December. The median sales price was 13.0% below its record high of $460,300 in October 2022. The average sales price of a new home dropped 5.9% (-3.6% y/y) to a six-month-low $499,500 following a 0.8% December decline to $530,900 and two consecutive m/m increases. The average price was 7.7% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 0.4% (-4.0% y/y) to 476,000 in January, the first m/m rise since October, following a 2.1% decline to 474,000 in December (the lowest level since September 2024). The latest figure was 11.7% above a low of 426,000 in July 2023. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.7 months in January, the highest reading since October 2022, after rising to 8.0 months in December. The latest reading, while above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023, remained below a high of 10.6 months in July 2022.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market increased to 3.2 months in January, the highest since April 2022, after rising to 2.9 months in December. The latest number was above its record low of 1.5 months in September and October 2022 but well below a peak of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- January sales -17.6% m/m (-11.3% y/y) to 587,000, third m/m fall in four months.
- Sales m/m down in all four regions; sales y/y down in the West (-28.7% y/y) and South (-8.8% y/y).
- Median sales price down to $400,500; avg. price down to $499,500—both at six-month lows.
- Months' supply rises to 9.7 mths., highest since Oct. ’22.

U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in January to Lowest Level Since Oct. ’22

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 8,000 to 205,000 in the week ending March 14, from an unrevised level of 213,000 in the week ending March 7. The four-week average declined 750 to 210,750 in the March 14 week from 211,500 in the prior week, revised from 212,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for 215,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—increased by 10,000 to 1.857 million in the week ending March 7, from 1.847 million in the week ending February 28, revised from 1.850 million. The four-week moving average stood at 1.850 million, a decline of 2,000 from the previous week’s average of 1.852 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of March 7. It has remained at that level since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending February 28, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (3.38%), New Jersey (2.95%), Massachusetts (2.83%), Washington (2.48%), Minnesota (2.44%), California (2.25%), New York (2.15%), Illinois and Montana (both 2.07%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), Louisiana (0.34%), Arkansas (0.38%), Alabama (0.40%) and North Carolina (0.41%). Rates in other notable states include Connecticut (2.00%), Pennsylvania (1.89%), and Texas (1.08%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

_**Note from the DOL:** This week's release reflects the annual revision to the weekly unemployment claims seasonal adjustment factors. The seasonal adjustment factors used for the UI Weekly Claims data from 2021 forward, along with the resulting seasonally adjusted values for initial claims and continuing claims, have been revised._

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims declined by 8,000 to 205,000.
- Continuing claims rose by 10,000 to 1.857 million
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%.
- The annual revision to the claims seasonal factors reflects minor changes in the claims series over the past year, with one notable upward revision to the November 29 week, when claims were revised from 192,000 to 216,000.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Declined in the Week of March 14

Michael J. Moran

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The producer price index for February rose 0.7%, decidedly faster than the expected increase of 0.3%. The latest change followed noticeable increases in the prior three months, leaving a picture of a burgeoning upward trend. The year-over-year increase totaled 3.4%, a reading near the top of the recent range.

 Some of the surge in February was the result of sharp increases in the food and energy components, and their jumps might be attributed to normal random volatility. For example, the surge of 2.4% in food prices could be viewed as an offset to a drop of 1.4% in the prior month; food prices in the past 12 months are down 0.2% despite the February jump. Energy prices also are down on a year-over-year basis (-0.8%) despite a surge of 2.3% in February.
 
However. more than random volatility was in play in February (and other recent months), as core measures also have stirred. Prices excluding food and energy rose 0.5% in February, matching the average advance in the prior three months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics avoids the use of the term “core” inflation, but it offers another measure designed to smooth the effects of prices that often move erratically (prices excluding food, energy, and trade services). The preferred measure of the BLS also rose 0.5 percent in February after an average increase of 0.3% in the prior three months. The traditional measure of core inflation rose 3.9% on a year-over-year basis, while the BLS measure advanced 3.5%.

Upward price pressure in recent months has been evident on both the goods and service sides. Prices of goods other than food and energy rose 0.3% in February following an average advance of 0.5% in the prior three months. Service prices rose 0.5% in February, matching the average increase in the November-January period. The year-over-year changes were brisk for both groupings: 4.3% for core goods and 3.8% for services.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- The volatile food and energy components jumped...
- ...But other items also showed upward pressure.

February PPI: Troubling Inflation Figures

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Total factory orders increased a less-than-expected 0.1% m/m in January following a 0.4% decline in December and a 2.7% gain in November, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.3% m/m January increase. The year-on-year growth rate eased to a three-month-low 4.4% in January from 4.5% in December (+3.2% in January 2025), remaining far below a peak of 39.6% in April 2021. Notably, orders for defense aircraft & parts plunged 23.8% m/m in January following an 11.8% jump in December and a 3.5% increase in November, while orders for nondefense aircraft & parts rose 3.8% after a 22.7% December drop and a 98.2% November surge. Factory orders excluding defense rebounded 0.4% (3.8% y/y), the second m/m gain in three months, following a 0.9% December decline. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.4% (1.4% y/y), the third successive m/m rise, after a 0.6% December increase.

Durable goods orders were unchanged (+10.3% y/y) in January after a 0.9% decline in December (matching 0.0% m/m in the advance report on March 13). The flat January reading reflected a 0.8% orders decrease (+20.1% y/y) in transportation equipment after a 4.6% December drop, alongside m/m declines of 0.6% (+7.6% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components and 0.4% (+3.7% y/y) in furniture & related products. Other major durable goods orders categories rose m/m in January, led by a 1.3% gain (8.3% y/y) in computers & electronic products, followed by m/m increases of 0.7% (8.7% y/y) in primary metals, 0.5% (5.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.2% (6.1% y/y) in machinery.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, increased 0.3% (-1.4% y/y) in January following a 0.1% uptick in December and four straight m/m declines. The January m/m rise was led by a 1.3% rebound (-12.8% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, followed by gains of 1.1% (-0.2% y/y) in printing, 1.0% (4.2% y/y) in apparel, 0.6% (2.8% y/y) in textile products, 0.4% (0.0% y/y) in food products, and 0.1% (0.1% y/y) in paper products. To the downside, the following nondurable goods shipments declined m/m in January: textile mills (-2.1%; -1.3% y/y), leather & allied products (-1.2%; -10.2% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (-0.5%; +3.2% y/y), and plastics & rubber products (-0.3%; +0.4% y/y). Meanwhile, shipments for chemical products were virtually unchanged (+3.5% y/y) in January following three consecutive m/m increases.

Total shipments rose 0.5% (2.4% y/y) in January, the third m/m rise in four months, following a 0.7% rebound in December. Excluding transportation, shipments increased 0.4% (1.1% y/y), the fourth m/m gain in five months, after a 0.5% December rise. Shipments of durable goods industries grew 0.6% (6.3% y/y), also up for the fourth time in five months, after a 1.2% December gain. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 1.6% (6.4% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 1.0% (9.4% y/y) in transportation equipment, 0.9% (3.9% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.6% (4.7% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.4% (8.6% y/y) in primary metals, 0.3% (4.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, and 0.3% (-3.0% y/y) in wood products. By contrast, durable goods shipments for furniture & related products (-0.7%; +1.4% y/y) and machinery (-0.4%; +6.9% y/y) fell m/m in January, while shipments for miscellaneous durable goods were flat (+2.1% y/y) following six straight m/m gains.

Unfilled orders grew 0.8% (11.1% y/y) in January, the sixth consecutive m/m increase, on top of a 0.9% rise in December. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y), also up for the sixth straight month, after a matching 0.4% December rise. Backlogs of durable goods climbed 0.8% (11.1% y/y) in January, reflecting m/m increases across nearly all categories of durable goods unfilled orders, led by rises of 1.0% (17.4% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.9% (5.1% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, partially offset by a flat reading (+2.1% y/y) in primary metals.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y) in January, the third successive m/m increase, after a 0.1% uptick in December. Excluding transportation, inventories were unchanged (+1.0% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Durable goods inventories grew 0.2% (1.7% y/y) for the fourth straight month, while nondurable goods inventories fell 0.2% (-0.6% y/y), the fourth m/m fall in five months, after a 0.3% December decline.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- January factory orders +0.1% m/m (+4.4% y/y); second m/m gain in three months and 7.7% above the Jan. ’24 low.
- Durable goods flat; nondurable goods orders +0.3% m/m; shipments +0.5% m/m.
- Transportation orders -0.8% m/m, led by a 23.8% plunge in defense aircraft orders.
- Unfilled orders +0.8%, the sixth straight m/m rise.
- Inventories +0.1%, the third consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Up Marginally in January on Weak Defense Aircraft Orders

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Import prices rose a more-than-expected 1.3% m/m in February, the largest monthly increase since March 2022, after upwardly revised rises of 0.6% in January (+0.2% initially) and 0.1% in December (+0.2% previously), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 1.3% in February, the highest since February 2025, from 0.3% in January. Export prices advanced a higher-than-expected 1.5% m/m in February, the fastest monthly pace since May 2022, after unrevised increases of 0.6% in both January and December. The y/y rate quickened to 3.5% in February, the highest since September, from 2.6% in January (2.7% in February 2025). The Action Economics Forecast survey had expected m/m rises of 0.4% in import prices and 0.5% in export prices for February. _(**Note**: Import and export price indexes are not directly affected by tariffs because they measure the prices of goods before taxes. Tariffs are classified as taxes and therefore are excluded from these calculations. October 2025 data were unavailable due to the U.S. federal government shutdown.)_

The m/m rise in February import prices reflected a 3.8% rebound (-10.6% y/y) in imported fuel prices after a 1.2% decline in January (-2.2% initially). The fuel price rebound was led by a 24.7% jump (+57.9% y/y) in natural gas, followed by rises of 6.3% (-6.2% y/y) in other petroleum products, 4.6% (-10.5% y/y) in fuel oil, 3.1% (-21.3% y/y) in liquefied petroleum gases, 2.5% (-14.8% y/y) in petroleum & petroleum products, and 1.1% (-17.4% y/y) in crude oil. Nonfuel import prices rose 1.1% (2.5% y/y) in February after a 0.8% increase in January (+0.5% initially). Import prices for the following categories all rose m/m in February: nonfuel industrial supplies & materials (+2.6%; +9.6% y/y), capital goods (+1.3%; +3.9% y/y), foods, feeds & beverages (+0.8%; -3.4% y/y), consumer goods excluding autos (+0.5%; +0.6% y/y), and automotive vehicles & parts (+0.2%; -0.9% y/y).

The February advance in export prices reflected m/m gains in both agricultural and nonagricultural export prices. Agricultural export prices rose 0.7% (2.2% y/y) in February, the fourth m/m rise in five months, on top of a 0.2% increase in January (unrevised). Nongricultural export prices climbed 1.7% (3.8% y/y) after rising 0.7% in January and December. Export prices for industrial supplies & materials (+3.5%; +4.4% y/y), foods, feeds & beverages (+0.9%; +2.8% y/y), consumer goods excluding autos (+0.7%; +4.0% y/y), capital goods (+0.2%; +3.0% y/y), and automotive vehicles & parts (+0.1%; +2.6% y/y) all increased m/m in February.

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Import prices +1.3% m/m (+1.3% y/y) in Feb., led by a 3.8% rebound in fuel import prices.
- Excluding fuels, import prices +1.1% m/m (+2.5% y/y) after a 0.8% Jan. increase.
- Export prices +1.5% m/m (+3.5% y/y), driven by a 1.7% gain in nonagricultural exp. prices.

U.S. Import and Export Prices Jump in February, Exceeding Expectations

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