Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

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Data Link Express

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

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MATLAB

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Sharp drop in China demand for oil helping to limit impact of Middle East conflict on the price

Sandy Batten

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CPI increased 0.1% m/m (3.4% y/y) following a 0.4% monthly decline in June. The core index (excluding food and energy prices) rose 0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y) after having been unchanged in June. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% monthly gain for the headline index and a 0.2% monthly increase for the core index. The 3-month rate for the headline index fell to 0.5% annualized in July from 2.8% in June while the 3-month rate for the core index slipped to 1.6% from 2.3% in June.

Combined with the weaker than expected employment report released last week, today’s in line with expectations inflation figures were generally interpreted as assuaging some of Fed’s inflation concerns. However, there is still another CPI report and another employment report before the next FOMC meeting in the middle of September.

Energy prices continued to play a major role in July. Seasonally adjusted energy prices fell 1.5% m/m in July on top of a 5.7% monthly decline in June. Prices of energy commodities declined 2.9% m/m in July with the seasonally adjusted price of gasoline also falling 2.9% m/m while prices of energy services rose 0.3% m/m. Prices of goods other than energy increased 0.2% m/m (0.8% y/y) after 0.1% monthly declines in both May and June. Prices of services excluding energy also increased 0.2% m/m (3.0% y/y) after having been unchanged in June. Food prices edged up 0.1% m/m (3.0% y/y) in July, the smallest monthly increase in four months, down from 0.2% m/m in June.

There was a whole laundry list of price declines in June that held down the core index that many analysts felt were unsustainable. Consequently, how much these prices rebounded in July was thought to be key to the overall July outcome. Indeed, most of the declines highlighted in June were reversed in July but only modestly. The price of cell phone service plunged 3.3% m/m in June but rose 0.6% m/m in July. Apparel prices fell 0.6% m/m in June but edged up 0.1% m/m in July. Prices of medical care services slipped 0.1% m/m in June but rose 0.6% m/m in July. Used vehicle prices, which declined 0.2% m/m in June, rebounded 0.4% m/m in July. In contrast, hotel prices dropped 2.8% m/m in June and declined 3.3% m/m in July. Prices of vehicle insurance decreased 2.0% m/m in June and added a 0.3% m/m decline in July.

The second consecutive outsized decline in hotel prices held down the rise in shelter costs in July, which increased just 0.1% m/m (3.2% y/y), the same monthly gain as in June. Still, this modest rise in shelter costs accounted for 2/3 of the monthly increase in the overall CPI. However, rent and owners’ equivalent rent were not as tame as overall shelter costs. Rent of primary residence increased 0.3% m/m (2.9% y/y) following a 0.1% monthly increase in June. Owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.3% m/m (3.2% y/y) versus a 0.2% monthly gain in June.

CPI services prices less energy services and the two rent measures is a relatively new core measure that is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve. It increased 0.2% m/m in July after having fallen 0.2% m/m in June with the y/y rate declining to 2.8% from 3.1% in June. Somewhat encouraging, the July y/y reading is almost at the top of the range in which this measure fluctuated prior to the pandemic.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- The headline CPI increased 0.1% m/m in July with the core index rising 0.2% m/m, both in line with expectations.
- Y/Y rates for each index edged down 0.1%-point.
- Seasonally adjusted energy prices fell for the second consecutive month.
- Shelter prices rose only 0.1% m/m, but this was mostly due to a 3.3% m/m decline in hotel prices.

U.S. CPI in Line with Expectations in July

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications rose 3.6% w/w (-11.6% y/y) in the week ending August 7 after declining by 2.9% w/w (-5.3% y/y) in the week ending July 31, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house rose 2.5% (-1.4% y/y) in the latest week following a decline of 3.6% w/w (-2.5% y/y) in the prior week.  Applications for loan refinancing rose 5.0% w/w (-22.2% y/y) in the August 7 week after a decline of 1.9% w/w (-8.8% y/y) in the July 31 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged down 3bps to 6.96% in the week ending August 7 from 6.99% in the week ending July 31, still remaining at levels not seen since July/August 2025. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages inched up 1bp to 6.33% in the August 7 week from 6.32% in the July 31 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate edged down 4ps to 6.83% in the latest week from 6.87% in the July 31 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM declined by 10bps to 6.30% in the August 7 week from 6.40% in the July 31 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 40.7% of total applications in the week of August 7 from 39.9% in the week ending July 31. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity stayed unchanged at 7.9% in the latest week from the July 31 week.

The average size of a mortgage edged down 0.7% w/w (-4.9% y/y) to $379,300 in the week ending August 7 after declining 0.8% w/w (+0.1% y/y) to $381,800 in the week ending July 31. The average size of a purchase loan inched down 0.2% w/w (+3.4% y/y) to $441,300 in the August 7 week after declining 0.7% w/w (+2.3% y/y) to $442,100 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 0.7% w/w (-21.1% y/y) in the August 7 week to $289,200 following a slight decline of 0.2% w/w (-6.0% y/y) to $291,100 in the July 31 week. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing rose in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans edged down 3bps to 6.96%, still at levels not seen since July/August 2025.
- Average loan size edged down.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose in the August 7 Week

Robert Brusca

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Inflation in Italy rose 0.1% in July after being flat in June and rising 0.3% in May. The core HICP was not quite so lucky, rising 0.3% in July after declining 0.2% in June and rising 0.4% in May. The domestic inflation data from Italy show the headline rising 0.1% in July, flat in June, and rising 0.4% in May. The Italian core on its domestic measure rose 0.3% in July, was flat in June, and rose 0.3% in May.

HICP inflation has gotten unruly in Italy, rising 2.9% over 12 months, accelerating to a 5.2% annual rate over six months but then rising by only 1.6% at an annual rate over three months. Core inflation remains much better behaved but has seen some increasing pressure, rising 1.5% over 12 months, posting a 1.4% annual rate over six months, and rising at a 2% annual rate over three months.

The domestic measures of inflation show the headline is quite similar to the HICP headline, rising 2.9% over 12 months, accelerating to a 5.7% annual rate over six months, and posting a 2% annual rate over three months. The Italian core rate, however, accelerates steadily from 1.6% over 12 months to 2.2% annualized over six months and to 2.4% annualized over three months. It's not a terrible ramping up, but it is an acceleration; it takes the Italian core to a level above what the ECB projects as its target for the euro area as a whole.

Inflation diffusion in Italy over three months, six months, and 12 months is relatively well behaved at 53.8% over 12 months and over six months. There's a modest tendency to have more acceleration than deceleration; however, over three months the diffusion measure falls to 46.2%, indicating net deceleration. The net deceleration over three months is reassuring, with moderate three-month inflation rates having been posted on the various metrics cited above. However, even the slight acceleration tendencies are a little more disturbing, with the high headline inflation posted over six months and uncomfortably high near a 3% pace over 12 months.

On a quarter-to-date basis, inflation in the third quarter is off to a slow start, at 1.2% for the HICP and 1.4% for the domestic measure. Both the HICP and the domestic measures show core inflation higher at 1.8% for the HICP and at a 2.4% annual rate for the domestic metric.

The inflation problem in Italy isn't simply something that comes because of oil. Year-over-year, the headline for the HICP and the domestic measure are both under 2% in the quarter to date (QTD). But both measures are running at or above 2% in most of the sequential developments of inflation from 12 months to six months to three months. Core inflation is showing pressure for both the HICP and domestic measures sequentially as well as QTD. The Italian inflation report for July by itself is not so good as the monthly headline is well-behaved, but the cores are uncomfortable in both the HICP and domestic measures. Inflation clearly is not dead. It remains something to keep an eye on even in Italy where inflation trends had been better behaved.

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Italy

Italian Inflation Gets Prickly

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Existing home sales fell 1.7% m/m (+0.7% y/y) to 4.06 million units at an annual rate in July after a downwardly revised 1.4% monthly decline in June (previously -2.4% m/m), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The July level of sales was the lowest in three months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.0% m/m decline in July. The interest rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continued its ascent in July, rising to 6.89% from 6.78% in June. This rate has risen 59 basis points since its recent low in February, a rise that continues to restrain home sales. The sales figures are based on closings of sales contracts signed over the past couple of months.

Sales of existing single-family homes fell 1.9% m/m (+0.8% y/y) in July on top of a 1.6% monthly decline in June. Sales of condos and co-ops were unchanged in July from June and also unchanged from a year ago.

Regionally, monthly sales increased in the Northeast (2.0% m/m, the third consecutive monthly increase), were unchanged in the West, and declined in the Midwest (-2.0% m/m) and South (-3.1% m/m). Year-over-year sales rose in the Midwest (2.1% y/y) and West (1.4% y/y) and were unchanged in the Northeast and South.

The nationwide median sales price fell 2.0% m/m NSA (+2.0% y/y) to $434,100 in July. After trending down during 2025, the y/y rate of advance of the median price has trended up slightly so far in 2026. The median sales prices of single-family home declined 1.9% m/m NSA (+1.9% y/y) in July while the median price of a condo/co-op fell 2.7% m/m NSA (+2.2% y/y). Regionally, the median sales price declined in all four major regions in July from June but rose from a year ago in each region.

There were 1.54 million homes NSA available for sale at the end of July, down 1.9% from June and 0.6% from a year ago. At the current selling pace, this level amounted to 4.6 months of unsold inventory, unchanged from both last month and July 2025.

The Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index edged up to 103.3 in July from 101.8 in June but is still well below the recent peak of 116.5 reached in January. Housing affordability slipped slightly in the Northeast but rose in the Midwest, South and West in July from June. The affordability index measures whether a median income family income qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced single-family home. Rising values above 100 indicate that more buyers can afford this mortgage.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total sales fell 1.7% m/m to 4.06 million units at an annual rate in July after a 1.4% monthly decline in June but were up 0.7% from a year ago.
- Monthly sales increased in the Northeast, held steady in the West, and declined in the Midwest and South.
- Year-over-year sales rose in the Midwest and West and were unchanged in the Northeast and South.
- The median sales price fell 2.0% m/m NSA in July but rose 2.0% from a year ago.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell Again in July

Winnie Tapasanun

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 99.8 in July after a 2.1-point rebound to 97.4 in June, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey from the National Federation of Independent Business, indicating small business sentiment improved to the highest level since August 2025. The index was above its 52-year average of 98.0 for the first time since February and above a low of 88.5 in March 2024, albeit below 100.3 in July 2025 and a peak of 105.1 in December 2024. Eight of the 10 index components rose, while two fell. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index improved to 91 in July following a two-point decline to 89 in June, remaining well above its historical average of 68. The index was up from its recent low of 84 in December 2025 and a low of 65 in November 2023, while below its record high of 110 in October 2024.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months remained positive for the 21st straight month in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve increased to 15% in July, a five-month high, following a 10-point recovery to 13% in June; these readings were far below a high of 52% in December 2024 but significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales declined to a net 7% in July from a five-month high of 9% in June; the latest figure was below a high of 22% in December 2024 but above a low of -18% in August 2024. A net -4% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, unchanged from June; the latest result remained above a low of -20% in October 2024 but below the recent positive reading of 1% in February and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to expand the business advanced to 12% in July, a five-month high, from 8% in June; the latest figure was down from a high of 20% in December 2024 but up from a low of 2% in March 2023. Plans to make capital outlays rose to 25% in July, the highest reading since December 2024, from 20% in June; these numbers were still below a high of 28% in November 2024 and a peak of 31% in October 2021. Expected credit conditions edged up to -4% in July from -5% in June; this result was slightly below a high of -2% in December 2024 but above a low of -11% in November 2023. Meanwhile, a net -2% of respondents viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in July, down from 0% in June (matching the highest reading since August 2025); the positive reading of 1% was recorded in May 2025.

On the labor front, 51% of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in July, unchanged from June and registering the highest level since September 2024. These numbers were above a low of 43% in August 2025 but below a high of 56% in August 2024 and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 20% planned to increase employment in July, up from 11% in June and matching the highest level since October 2022; it remained above a low of 11% in March 2024 but below a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 36% reported positions not able to be filled in July, up from 32% in June and matching the highest reading since June 2025; these figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The measure increased to -16% in July following a five-point decline to -20% in June. These readings were below the most recent high of -14% in February and a high of -5% in June 2021 but above a low of -37% in August 2024.

On the pricing front, actual and expected selling prices remained at an inflationary level, indicating continued inflationary pressures, albeit at slower rising paces. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices fell to a still-elevated 31% in July, the lowest level since April and the first m/m decline since February, after a two-point increase to 38% in June. The latest reading was up from a low of 20% in August 2024 but well below a peak of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices eased to 28% in July, a three-month low, following a two-point decline to 32% in June; these readings remained above a low of 21% in April 2023.

Wage inflation remained relatively high in the July survey. A net 31% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, up from 28% in June and equaling May’s reading. It was above a low of 26% in November 2025 but below a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 19% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, up from 17% in June and registering the highest level since February; this remained below highs of 28% in November 2024, 30% in November 2023, and 32% in October 2022.

Labor quality was cited as the single most important problem facing small businesses, as reported by 27% of NFIB members in July, up from 19% in June and matching the highest since October 2025. Taxes ranked second as the next most important problem, as reported by 16% of respondents in July, down from 19% in June and May and representing the lowest since November 2025. Inflation also remained a key challenge for small businesses, as reported by 14% of respondents in July, matching the lowest since March, compared to 21% in May (the highest since October 2024); these readings were well below a peak of 37% in July 2022. Other concerns (in July vs. June) included labor costs (8% vs. 8%), insurance cost/availability (8% vs. 8%), poor sales (8% vs. 7%), government requirements (7% vs. 8%), and competition from large businesses (7% vs. 5%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- NFIB Small Business Optimism Idx up 2.4 pts. to 99.8 in July, above its 52-year avg. of 98.0.
- Uncertainty Idx up 2 pts. to 91, well above the historical avg. of 68.
- Expectations for economy up 2 pts. to 15%, highest since Feb.
- Expected real sales down 2 pts. to 7% from June’s five-month high.
- Plans to expand business up 4 pts. to 12%, a five-month high.
- Hiring plans up 9 pts. to 20%, highest since Oct. ’22.
- Firms raising avg. selling prices down 7 pts. to 31%, a three-month low.
- Top three business concerns: labor quality (27%), taxes (16%), and inflation (14%).

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Climbs in July to an 11-Month High

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Inflation in the Netherlands picked up in July compared to June. Both the June HICP and the domestic inflation index had shown declines. In July, the HICP posted an increase of 0.7% month-to-month while the domestic CPI gained 0.5%, both easily showing accelerations compared to June. Monthly inflation rates increased in July the same or greater than previously in May.

Sequentially inflation is not exactly busting out; however, the legacy of inflation is still a bitter pill for the ECB to try to swallow even for this small European economy. The total HICP is up at a 2.9% annual rate over 12 months; that rises to a 4% annual rate over six months and settles back down to 2.1% over three months. That deflation is mostly on the strength of the weak showing in June. The domestic inflation rate rises 3.1% over 12 months; it accelerates to 4.3% annualized over six months and then only backs down to 2.8% at an annual rate over three months, largely on the back of the decline posted in June.

The domestic components show inflation accelerating in all but three categories in July; eight of thirteen showed declines in June. Only two categories showed declines in May.

Sequentially, looking at the percentage changes from 12 months to six months to three months, the components are showing mixed results. However, for food and for alcoholic beverages & tobacco, inflation steadily decelerates from 12 months to six months to three months. Only recreation & culture show inflation accelerating over 12 months, six months and three months. However, if we look at inflation trends over three months compared to six months, and six months compared to 12 months, acceleration is present for housing & utilities, for healthcare, for recreation & culture, and for personal care & miscellaneous categories. The not-named categories have more complex patterns, not necessarily good or bad, just complex. The line on the table for diffusion shows us that over 12 months inflation is accelerating in 38.5% of the categories compared to what it had done a year ago. However, over six months, the category inflation rates are higher compared to 12 months in 61.5% of the categories. Over three months compared to six months, inflation is higher in 46% of the categories. By these diffusion calculations, inflation is accelerating over six months compared to 12 months but otherwise it is decelerating over three months and over 12 months.

As an overview, the 2.1% inflation rate for the HICP over three months looks excellent; however, in context, it's result of three months, two of which were terrible, one of which was excellent, and so that's not much to go on. The HICP progressive inflation rates other than three months are all too high at 4% and 2.9%; for the domestic CPI, the same statements are true, except that the three-month rate at 2.8% is even worse than for the HICP over three months. The inflation diffusion statistics by themselves are not bad over three months, showing inflation accelerating in only 46.2% of the categories. That's a pretty good result and inflation accelerating over 12 months in only 38.5% of the categories. But the six-month pace is too high, and the question is where the three-month number is going to settle in once we move down the road; the good June inflation statistic beginning to fade and drop out is another issue. June increasing is looking like an outlier.

So that's a significant question on the outlook for inflation, and it's basically a question that we ask for every country because we had that break because of the hopeful situation that had arisen around the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of oil prices going back down. Now that prospect appears to have passed and we're not quite sure where we stand. That puts the outlook and all the trends in a danger zone.

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Netherlands

Dutch Inflation Picks Up

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For the second consecutive month, the employment report disappointed. Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July with significant downward revisions to both May and June, according to today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected an increase of 85,000. The 129,000 increase previously reported for May was revised down to 63,000 while the much lower-than-expected 57,000 increase previously reported for June was revised down to 20,000. The average gain over the past three months fell to 20,000 from 77,000 in June while the average increase over the past six months declined to 44,330 from 74,830 in June. Both remain stronger than in the second half of last year but in the past two months have slowed from the pace exhibited in the spring.

In contrast to the headline figure, private-sector payrolls posted a 30,000 increase in July. However, this was still much lower than the expected 79,000 increase, and there were also significant, though smaller than for the headline figure, downward revisions to both May and June (totaling 55,000). Government employment fell 53,000 in July, almost completely accounted for by a surprising 49,600 decline in local government education jobs.

The weaker-than-expected payroll report was once again reinforced by a weak report from the **household survey** for July. While the number of unemployed fell 178,000, the third consecutive monthly decline, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged down to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, the number of employed fell 87,000, the fifth monthly decline in the past six months, on top of a 507,000 plunge in June. The labor force continued its sharp fall, declining 264,000 in July following a 720,000 drop in June. The labor force participation rate decreased to 61.4%, its lowest reading since February 2021.

On a slightly brighter note, wage growth was well behaved. Private sector average hourly earnings, a key variable for the Federal Reserve, edged up a less-than-expected 0.1% m/m in July, the smallest monthly gain since last December. The 3.2% increase from a year ago was the lowest May 2021. Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.3% m/m rise. Wages in private service-producing firms were unchanged and advanced just 2.9% from a year ago, the slowest pace of advance since May 2021. Goods-producing wages rose 0.3% m/m (4.1% y/y) in July, up slightly from a 0.2% monthly increase in June.

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In the **establishment survey**, goods-producing jobs increased a solid 25,000 in July, the largest monthly advance since March, led by a 22,000 rise in construction jobs. Manufacturing jobs rose 5,000 in July, the second consecutive monthly gain. Private-sector service-producing jobs rose only 5,000 in July, the weakest performance since a 127,000 decline in February. Job performance varied significantly across sectors. Surprisingly, leisure and hospitality was the weakest sector with jobs declining 40,000 in July on top of a 43,000 decline in June. There were expectations that the World Cup would generate additional leisure and hospitality jobs, but this obviously has failed to pan out. Retail trade jobs fell 19,400 following a 3,700 decline in June. Financial activities jobs declined 14,000, the fifth consecutive monthly decline. By contrast, private education and healthcare jobs increased 25,000 in Jul, though this was well below the 60,000 monthly increase averaged over the previous four months. Professional and business services jobs rose 18,000, and information jobs gained 11,000, the first monthly increase in four months.

The breadth of private job growth narrowed in July from June with the one-month diffusion index falling to 51.8 from 53.2, though still above the key 50 level that indicates that more industries were adding jobs than losing them. Moreover, the six-month diffusion index rose to 55.0 in July, its highest reading since January 2024.

The length of the workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours in July, where it has been for the past four months. The aggregate weekly hours index was also unchanged in July as it had been in June. The goods-producing workweek edged up to 40.2 hours in July, the highest since January 2023, from 40.1 in June. The private service-producing workweek was unchanged at 33.2 hours in July.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 23,000 in July with meaningful downward revisions to both May and June.
- The market consensus looked for an 85,000 increase.
- The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, its lowest since June 2025, from 4.2%, due mostly to another significant decline in the labor force.
- Average hourly earnings edged up 0.1% m/m (3.2% y/y), meaningfully lower than expectations.

U.S. Payroll Employment Unexpectedly Declined in July

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German industrial production rose by 0.2% in June, continuing a string of increases. Production in Germany is on an accelerating path. It is unchanged over 12 months, but it has a 0.9% annual rate increase over six months and a 4.5% annual rate increase over three months, a clear acceleration in the rates of growth over the shorter periods.

That trend is accentuated by consumer goods that grow 2.3% over 12 months; output then steps up to a 3% annual rate over six months and advances to 18.9% at an annual rate over three months. Capital goods and intermediate goods interrupt the pattern to some extent. For capital goods, output falls 2.5% over 12 months, then weakens further, falling by 4.2% annually over six months, but it rebounds to grow at a 0.8% annual rate over three months. That's not an accelerating pattern, but there is a recovery over three months. Intermediate goods show a 0.1% increase in output over 12 months, rising to 1.7% annually over six months but then stepping back to a 1% growth rate over three months.

Manufacturing alone also shows accelerating growth as growth rates improve from 12 months to six months to three months. Real manufacturing orders have a convoluted growth rate, with positive growth over 12 months, a decline over six months, and then a small recovery over three months. The pace of real sales, as we saw in yesterday's durable goods orders and sales report, is on a shrinking path.

Industrial surveys generally show sequential deterioration for the sector from the ZEW and the IFO. The exception is the EU Commission industrial index that shows some slight improvement sequentially.

Industrial production results are presented for five other European countries that have issued IP data as of June. These data show acceleration sequentially in Spain, Sweden, and Norway. France and Portugal have complex patterns that end with negative three-month growth rates.

On balance, Germany shows some hopeful trends, with some rebound being led to some extent by the consumer sector. The survey data on industry are not encouraging. Although the picture for the rest of Europe shows some tendency for acceleration, there’s still a good deal of lingering weakness.

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Germany

German Industrial Output Gathers Strength

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The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions unexpectedly rose to 20.6 in August following a 9.9-point rebound to 15.6 in July, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. A reading of 10.0 for August had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The positive August figure indicated that business activity in New York State expanded for the fifth consecutive month and at the fastest pace since December 2021; it was a sharp improvement from 9.1 in August 2025 and a low of -29.7 in January 2024. The percentage of respondents reporting an increase in general business conditions was 43.8% in August, up from 39.0% in July; the percentage reporting a decrease was 23.1%, down from July’s 23.4%. The latest survey was conducted between August 3 and August 10.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity and is not calculated from the components. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. This calculated index declined to 55.4 in August following a 4.1-point gain to 57.5 in July, representing the eighth straight expansion but at a slightly slower pace; it was modestly up from 53.8 in August 2025 and well above a low of 43.0 in January 2024. The index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories, with equal weights (20% each).

In the latest survey, the new orders index fell to 17.3 in August after an 18.7-point jump to 22.2 in July, marking the eighth consecutive expansion but at a slower pace; it was a sharp improvement from a low of -30.7 in January 2024 but a decline from a high of 19.6 in April 2023. The shipments index dropped to 11.7 in August following a 15.8-point recovery to 24.4 in July, representing the fifth successive expansion; it was well above a low of -21.7 in April 2024 but below a high of 21.0 in June 2023. The unfilled orders index jumped to 15.5 in August after holding at 5.0 in July and June, indicating unfilled orders expanded for the seventh straight month and at the highest level since April 2022; the index reached a low of -24.2 in January 2024. The inventories index fell to -5.2 in August following a 4.0-point increase to 4.0 in July, signaling inventories contracted for the first time since January and at the lowest level since August 2025. Meanwhile, the delivery times index rose to 20.6 in August, the highest reading since April 2022, from 13.0 in July, with 26.8% of respondents reporting longer delivery times and 6.2% reporting shorter times, indicating that delivery times continued to lengthen substantially.

On the labor front, the number of employees index decreased to 9.3 in August after a 1.8-point increase to 11.4 in July (the highest level since December 2022), indicating that employment expanded for the seventh consecutive month but at the slowest rate since May. The index remained well above a low of -9.3 in December 2023 but below a peak of 24.9 in February 2022. In August, 14.8% of respondents reported an increase in employment while 5.5% reported a decline. The average workweek index rebounded to 6.9 in August, a three-month high, from 2.8 in July (the lowest level since March), remaining positive for the seventh successive month.

Inflation pressures remained elevated in August. The prices paid index rose to 58.6 in August after an 8.7-point drop to 52.3 in July. The index was above a low of 25.9 in December 2024 and a low of 20.8 in December 2023, albeit remaining well below a peak of 84.9 in April 2022. In August, 59.4% of respondents reported higher prices paid while only 0.8% reported lower prices paid. The prices received index slid to 22.7 in August, a four-month low, from 27.6 in July. The index was above a low of 7.5 in December 2024 and a low of 7.7 in July 2023 but far below a high of 51.9 in March 2022. In August, 26.6% of respondents reported higher prices received while 3.8% reported lower prices received.

Firms remained optimistic about the future business outlook in the latest survey. The index for future business conditions increased to 32.1 in August, the highest level since May, after a 2.2-point easing to 27.9 in July, with 47.0% of respondents expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months. Future new orders climbed to 37.1 in August, the highest level since March 2022, from 33.2 in July, and future shipments rose to 33.7, a seven-month high, from 30.6. Growth in future employment accelerated to 28.2, the highest reading since March 2022, from July’s 14.4. Capital spending plans remained positive for the 10th straight month in August, with the future capital expenditures index rising to 16.5, a five-month high, from July’s 15.0. Expected prices paid rose to 57.7 in August from a four-month-low 53.0 in July, and expected prices received increased to 48.7 from a three-month-low 41.9.

The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- General Business Conditions Index up 5.0 pts. to 20.6 in Aug.; fifth straight expansion.
- New orders (17.3) down 4.9 pts. and shipments (11.7) down 12.7 pts. from a four-year high, both still indicating expansion.
- Unfilled orders (15.5), highest since Apr. ’22; inventories (-5.2), first contraction since Jan.
- Employment (9.3), a three-month low following July’s highest level since Dec. ’22.
- Prices paid (58.6) up 6.3 pts. from July; prices received (22.7), a four-month low.
- Firms remaining optimistic: Future Business Conditions Index up to 32.1, a three-month high; future prices paid rising to 57.7 from a four-month low.

U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Surprises to the Upside in August, Highest Since Dec. ’21

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**INTWKLY** → World and Regional Indicators → Risk-On Risk-Off Index (RORO)

The RORO index was added to **INTDAILY** and **INTWKLY**. This index is a multifaceted measure designed to capture the realized variation in global investor risk appetite. It uses daily data from asset markets in the US and the euro area. It presents an aggregation of risk-on risk-off states of the world based on four broad categories reflecting variation in advanced economy credit risk, equity market volatility, funding conditions and currencies and gold. Data are sourced from FRB KC and start in May 2003.

Chart: The period of the Global Financial Crisis (fall 2008) and the early days of the COVID pandemic (3/2020) display some of the biggest risk-off movements, peaking above 10 standard deviations. The S&P downgrade of the US credit rating (8/2011), the collapse of Credit Suisse (3/2023), and liberation day (4/2025) also illustrate noteworthy examples of significant risk-off dates, reaching 5.8, 3.6 and 4.6 standard deviations, respectively.

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