Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

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DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with Clear Future Consultants to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

Tom Moeller

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Wholesale trade inventories increased 0.2% (0.9% y/y) during October after an unrevised 0.2% September decline and a 0.2% August rise. The increase compared to a 0.2% rise expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey and compared to no change in the advance report issued two weeks ago.

Durable goods inventories rose 0.1% in October (2.0% y/y) after falling 0.6% in September. Machinery inventories, the largest sector, fell 0.2% (+7.9% y/y) while motor vehicles & parts, the second largest grouping, edged 0.1% lower (+6.0% y/y). Furniture inventories rose 2.7% (2.4% y/y) while electrical equipment inventories declined 1.0% (-3.3% y/y). Inventories of nondurable goods rose 0.3% (-0.8% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Petroleum inventories fell 2.5% (-15.7% y/y). Drug inventories, which make up one-quarter of nondurable inventories, advanced 1.1% (7.9% y/y). Grocery inventories, the second largest category, rose 1.6% (2.5% y/y). Apparel inventories rose 0.3% (-11.3% y/y) and chemical inventories eased 0.2% (-3.8% y/y).

Sales at the wholesale level slipped 0.1% (+0.9% y/y) in October after rising 0.5% in September and falling 0.2% in August. A 0.2% October rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Durable goods sales held steady in October (4.5% y/y) after rising 0.6% in September. Sales of electrical equipment & electronic goods, the largest sector, rose 1.9% (13.7% y/y), after a 0.4% gain. Professional and commercial equipment sales, which includes computers, declined 2.8% (+5.1% y/y), while vehicle sales improved 0.4% (5.9% y/y). Sales of machinery edged 0.1% higher (2.3% y/y). Nondurable product sales weakened 0.3% (-2.2% y/y) after rising 0.4% in September. Petroleum product sales tumbled fell 0.6% (-14.8% y/y). Drug store sales, the largest category, weakened 1.1% (+5.4% y/y), while grocery store sales gained 0.9% (4.7% y/y). Sales of apparel weakened 2.6% (+4.0% y/y). Paper sales fell 0.5% (-1.2% y/y).

The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio at the wholesale level held steady at 1.34 in October but has been moving lower for the last year.

The wholesale I/S ratio for durable goods edged up to 1.76 but also has been trending lower. The machinery ratio declined to 3.01 while motor vehicles eased to 1.81. The I/S ratio for nondurable goods held at 0.95 but remained down from 1.04 early last year. The petroleum industry I/S ratio eased to 0.31, and the drug industry ratio moved up to 1.00. Apparel's I/S ratio of 2.10 remained below its 2.46 level one year earlier.

The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the **MMSAMER** database. Expectations for sales are from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Inventories trend higher y/y.
- Sales edge lower m/m, but trend is up.
- Inventory-to-sales ratio moves lower.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise Modestly in October but Sales Ease

Robert Brusca

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Japan's economy watcher index improved in November. The future index also improved in November; however, both the current and the future indexes continued to produce readings below 50 indicating that contraction remains the order of the day.

**Economy watchers indexes remain weak**
These indexes have been skimming below the level of 50 for some time (3-month, current; 9-month, future). Weaker, yes, however, not by much. There is mild contraction indicated in both the current state of the economy and the expected future state of the economy. However, this is not an entirely unusual situation because the ranking of the current index is a 64-percentile standing which indicates the diffusion index is above its median which also sends home the message that a below-50 reading has some sense of normalcy to it for Japan (evaluated on data since 2003). The same is true for the future index, at 49.4, is below 50 and has a queue percentile standing at its 56.5 percentile, above its median for this same period.

**Current Index**
The current index has month-to-month index changes that are mid-range for a diffusion score of 50%. But October and September have diffusion scores below 50, showing more indexes are weakening month-to-month than are strengthening. Sequentially, the readings are compared on a period-average-to-period-average basis. The 12-months average improves in 90% of the components compared to the average of 12-months ago. Comparing the 6-month average to the average over 12 months shows that no sector improved. Comparing the 3-month average to the six-month average across line items, 60 percent of the sectors improved.

**Future Index**
The future index improved broadly month-to-month in November with a diffusion reading in November at 80%, up from only 10% in October and 30% in September. The diffusion reading on the future index over 12 months, 6 months, and 3 months, are similar to the pattern of the current indexes. There is strong breadth over 12 months, no improvement over 6 months compared to 12-months, and a reading showing 60% improvement over 3 months compared to 6 months. Note that these metrics are different from the period-to-period change in the table that is constructed from point-to-point data (not averages). But the signals really are quite similar (except for the 12-month point-to-point results, that show broad weakness in contrast the broad strength signal by comparing averages).

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**Manufacturing**
In the Tankan index, the manufacturing readings for large firms get the greatest weighting. In this index, manufacturing had improved in October, but it dipped in November with a reading even below its September value. In contrast, the future index sees manufacturing better in November than in October but still slightly below its September reading that had edged above 50.

**Weak-to-sideways assessments**
The current index has only three-line items out of nine with readings below a ranking of 50%: housing, nonmanufacturing corporations, and employment. The same three items are the only ones to rank below 50% in the future survey as well. The greatest strength in the current index is led by eating and drinking places, retailing and households. The future index shows its greatest strength in the ranking for services and eating and drinking places. Manufacturing ranks below the current index rank but ranks stronger than the headline future index. Both the current and future indexes have readings at or close to a rank standing of 40% on a measure that counts the proportion of observations above 50% ranked over time. Overall, this is a reading that shows little change and keeps the readings moving sides ways showing moderate contraction in the current and future surveys.

Japan

Japan: Economy Watchers

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Consumer credit outstanding increased $19.2 billion (2.3% y/y) during October after rising $3.2 in September, revised from $6.0 billion and $4.6 billion in August, revised from $7.6 billion. A $10.0 billion increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to disposable personal income was little changed at 23.4% in October, a ratio that has drifted lower the last two years.

Revolving credit outstanding, which includes credit cards, jumped $15.7 billion in October (5.7% y/y) following a $1.6 billion September increase and a $1.8 billion August fall. Revolving credit outstanding held by depository institutions rose 6.4% y/y, down from a high of 17.0% y/y growth in August 2022. Revolving credit held by finance companies fell 11.7% y/y while revolving credit held by credit unions rose a diminished 5.3% y/y in October.

Nonrevolving credit outstanding increased $3.5 billion (1.0% y/y) in October after increasing $1.6 billion in September and $6.4 billion in August. Nonrevolving credit held by banks fell 1.8% y/y, down from a +11.0% y/y high in April 2022, while finance company nonrevolving credit rose 2.7% y/y, less than half the increase early this year. Credit union nonrevolving balances declined 2.2% y/y in October, off from 20.3% y/y growth in January 2023. Federal government balances surged 3.5% y/y to $1.51 trillion in October.

The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Revolving credit strength leads upturn.
- Nonrevolving credit usage improves.

U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Picks Up in October

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 227,000 (1.4% y/y) in November after rising 36,000 in October, revised from 12,000, and 255,000 in September, revised from 223,000. Expectations had been for a 215,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The improvement pulled the three-month average change to 173,000 from 123,000 in October, though that remained below the recent high of 267,000 in March of this year.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% last month following an unrevised 0.4% October gain and a 0.3% September rise. Earnings growth of 4.0% y/y remained up from 3.6% in July, but remained below the 5.9% high in March 2022. A 0.3% November increase had been expected.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, rose to an expected 4.2% in November from 4.1% in both October & September. It reached a low of 3.4% in April of 2023. Household employment fell 355,000 after declining 368,000 in October. The labor force declined 193,000 after a 220,000 October weakening. The overall unemployment rate, including workers who were marginally attached & working part-time for economic reasons, rose to 7.8% from 7.7%.

In the **payroll survey**, private-sector employment rose 194,000 in November (1.3% y/y) following a 2,000 decline in October, revised from -28,000. Construction sector employment increased 10,000 (2.5% y/y) last month after rising 2,000 in October. Factory sector payrolls gained 22,000 (-0.5% y/y) after falling 48,000 in October.

Private service-producing employment improved 160,000 (1.4% y/y) after increasing 42,000 in October, revised from 9,000. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health service jobs rose 79,000 (3.7% y/y) and leisure & hospitality employment gained 53,000 (1.6% y/y). Professional & business service jobs rose 26,000 (0.3% y/y). Within that category, the number of temporary jobs increased 1,600 (-5.2% y/y). Financial activities jobs rose 17,000 (0.6% y/y). Information sector employment held steady last month (-0.5% y/y) while trade, transportation & utilities employment fell 23,000 (+0.6% y/y).

Government sector payrolls increased 33,000 in November (2.1% y/y) after rising 38,000 in October. Local government jobs improved 15,000 last month (2.0% y/y) while state government employment rose 20,000 (2.8% y/y). The number of federal government jobs fell 2,000 (+1.5% y/y).

The 0.4% November rise in private-sector average hourly earnings reflected a 0.1% gain (4.3% y/y) in the goods-producing sector. Earnings in construction improved 0.1% last month (4.1% y/y) while factory sector earnings also rose 0.1% (4.3% y/y). In the services sector, earnings rose 0.4% in November (4.0% y/y) while trade, transportation and utilities pay jumped 0.6% (3.5% y/y). Information sector earnings increased 0.4% (4.8% y/y) as professional & business service-sector earnings increased 0.6% (5.2% y/y). Leisure & hospitality earnings rose 0.4% (3.9% y/y). Financial sector earnings increased 0.4% (4.2% y/y). Private education & health services earnings increased 0.2% (3.3% y/y).

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The length of the average workweek in the private sector edged up to 34.3 hours last month from 34.2 hours in October. The workweek in the goods-producing sector held October’s 39.7 hours, compared to 39.8 hours in the previous two months. The construction sector average workweek fell to 38.9 hours from 39.1 hours. The factory sector workweek edged up to 40.0 hours while average weekly overtime hours edged up to 2.9. The average workweek in the private service sector was steady at 33.2 hours. The aggregate weekly hours index in the private sector, a key indicator of production and income, increased 0.4% last month (1.0% y/y) after a 0.3% October decline.

In the **household survey**, the higher 4.2% jobless rate occurred as employment fell 0.2% and the size of the labor force eased 0.1%. The labor force participation rate dropped to 62.5% in November, down from the high of 62.8% twelve months earlier. The rate for teenagers increased to 36.2%, but was below the 38.2% high in March, while for individuals aged 20-24 the rate eased to 71.5%. The participation rate for workers aged 25-54 held at 83.5%, down from a high of 84.0% in July, but for workers 55 and over it fell to 38.4 hours after three months at 38.6 hours.

The employment/population ratio for all workers eased to 59.8% in November from 60.0% in October. It remained below its high of 61.1% in February 2020, just prior to the pandemic. Growth in the population has been steady at 0.6% y/y all this year, but below the 1.2% y/y high this past December.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Job gains are broad-based.
- Earnings extend pattern of improved growth.
- Overall trend in jobless rate since early-2024 is up.

U.S. Payroll Employment Bounces Back in November After Storms & Strike; Earnings Growth Steadies & Jobless Rate Edges Up

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German IP fell by 1% in October, led by declines of 1% in consumer goods output, a 0.4% decline in capital goods output, and a 0.4% gain in intermediate goods. Output had fallen and fallen sharply across the board in September. That fall was one of the main reasons that expectations this month were slated for a bounce-back.

Despite this, the pace of decline has slowed over three months. German IP falls by 4.7% over 12 months; it drops at an annual rate of 9.1% over six months and then drops at a three-month annualized rate of 1.8%. Consumer goods output comes closer to having an ongoing accelerating decline in progress. Capital goods output declines at a 4.9% pace over 12 months and declines at an 8.1% annual rate over six months then shifts to log a strong 9.8% increase at an annual rate over three months. In contrast, intermediate goods output shows declines on all horizons without and clear trend beyond that.

Surveys for German industrial performance generally get weaker from 12-month to 6-month to 3-month, except for IFO manufacturing expectations that fluctuate and side-slip. France, Spain, Portugal, and Norway report early IP data for October. Sequentially, only Spain has a pattern and that is accelerating. The rest show fluctuation but three of the European countries (exception, Norway) show IP rising over three months.

Still, the queue standings for the various metrics in the table are uniformly low. Among the 18-rankings in the table, only three of them stand above their 50-percentile which puts them above their respective historic median year-over-year gains. Spain and Portugal show historical strong manufacturing IP gains while for Germany real orders have a standing above their historic median.

On balance, it is another disappointing economic report for Germany. The manufacturing sector remains under pressure although there is some evidence of slightly better growth in other European economies. For the most part, the quarter-to-date readings show ongoing weakness.

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Germany

German IP Drops, Unexpectedly

Andrew Cates

**The growth consensus for 2024**
One of the defining features of the global economic landscape this year has been the resilience of the US economy. The Blue Chip consensus for US GDP growth in 2024 has been steadily climbing for over a year, notwithstanding tight monetary policy from the Fed this year and a weakening global backdrop. To that last point, and in contrast to the US, growth expectations for Japan have steadily declined over the past 12 months while those for the euro area have remained notably lower compared with they stood through much of 2023. Finally, China’s growth outlook has been lifted a little over the last few months but that follows a succession of downward revisions to its GDP forecasts during the course of last year as well.

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**The inflation consensus for 2025**
Just as growth expectations for 2024 for the world’s major economies diverged, inflation expectations for 2025 have diverged as well. Against a backdrop of resilient growth and a still-tight labour market, US inflation forecasts for 2025 have remain fairly elevated. That’s clearly now generating some uncertainty about the leeway for the Fed to further ease monetary policy next year. Meanwhile, China’s inflation outlook has declined sharply, reflecting weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures stemming from property market instability and high levels of indebtedness. The euro area, in the meantime, has seen relatively stable and more subdued inflation forecasts for next year, consistent with its sluggish pace of economic growth. Finally Japan's inflation expectations, while increasing, have remained modest. This too has generated some uncertainty about the scope for the BoJ to further normalise monetary policy next year, not least as growth expectations, as noted, have been declining in recent months as well.

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**US outperformance and global imbalances**
A resilient US economy has had a number of broader implications for the world economy, not least via savings and investment imbalances, and capital flows. As chart 3 below suggests, heightened optimism about the prospects for the US economy have accompanied forecasts suggesting that current account balances in other major economies – the gap between their investment and savings – will be larger than had been previously assumed. With most major economies already running large current account surpluses that implies larger reservoirs of global savings that need to be re-channelled, either for domestic investment purposes, or, more likely, into global – and particularly US - financial markets.

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**Safety, alternatives and US assets outperform**
That widening imbalance between savings and investment in other (non-US) economies offers a good explanation for why US financial assets – including the US dollar – outperformed non-US assets in 2024. The US dollar’s role as a reserve currency and the relative liquidity and stability of US financial markets are key considerations for this. That gold also posted solid gains was possibly a reflection of its appeal as a safe-haven asset against a backdrop of persistent uncertainty in most major economies. However, as chart 4 below also suggests, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin experienced even more impressive gains so far this year, thanks to growing interest in decentralized finance and possibly because of its role as an additional hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty as well.

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**AI optimism**
The US equity market also delivered robust returns this year because of heightened enthusiasm for technology stocks, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector. US leadership in the AI space is certainly suggested by the IMF’s readings for its AI Preparedness Index (AIPI), as evidenced in chart 5 below. The AIPI is, for the record, derived from assessments about four key dimensions deemed to be relevant for smooth AI adoption and specifically digital infrastructure, human capital, technological innovation, and legal frameworks.

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**Global trade concerns** 
Optimism about AI, however, clearly contrasts at present with growing uncertainty about the prospects for the world economy next year. Potential shifts in US trade policy could, in particular, have amplified anxiety. That’s certainly the suggestion in chart 6 below by the sharp increase of late in an index for world trade uncertainty. If that increase foreshadows disruptions in world trade flows and broader global supply chain challenges that could clearly destabilise the world economy and threaten financial stability over the next few months. We will focus more on the key global macroeconomic issues and themes for 2025 in our publication next week.

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This year, the narrative in financial markets has been defined by the unexpected resilience of the US economy. This resilience has stood in stark contrast to Europe, China and Japan, where growth outcomes have frequently fallen short of expectations (see chart 1). These growth considerations have also yielded important consequences for inflation (chart 2) and monetary policy. But feedback loops via savings imbalances have been significant too for shaping financial markets, particularly as the US has continued to attract substantial capital inflows (chart 3). Those inflows have amplified US asset market performance and generated enthusiasm for alternative assets, such as Bitcoin, and safe assets, such as gold, at the same time (chart 4). In the background to this there has been heightened enthusiasm about the productivity-potential of AI, further supporting demand – via its technology leadership - for US assets (chart 5). However, there has equally, and more recently, been heightened concern about the potential trade policy consequences of a new US administration (chart 6). We will be discussing the outlook for the year ahead in more detail in next week’s publication.

Charts of the Week: The Year in Review

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) narrowed to $73.8 billion during October after deepening to $83.8 billion in September, revised from $84.4 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A $75.2 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports declined 1.6% (+1.9% y/y) during October after a 1.0% September fall. Imports weakened 4.0% (+4.4% y/y) after rising 3.1% in September.

The deficit in goods trade (BOP basis) narrowed to $98.7 billion in October after widening sharply to $109.0 billion in September, which was the largest deficit since March 2022. Goods exports (Customs Value) slide 3.1% (-1.3% y/y) in October after declining 2.0% in September. Exports of foods & beverages declined 4.1% (-0.1% y/y) while industrial supplies & materials dropped 4.2% (-9.2% y/y). Exports of capital goods were off 7.0% (+1.4% y/y). Auto exports plunged 18.6% (-20.6% y/y) while nonauto consumer goods exports fell 6.0% (-3.9% y/y). Other goods exports surged 68.3% (+93.3% y/y) in October.

Imports of goods declined 5.5% during October (+3.3% y/y) after rising 4.0% in September. Imports of foods, fees & beverages declined 3.4% (+8.7% y/y) while industrial supplies & materials imports weakened 5.8% (-4.5% y/y). Capital goods imports declined 8.7% (+8.2% y/y). Auto exports weakened 4.0% (-3.6% y/y) while nonauto consumer goods imports fell 2.8% (8.1% y/y). Imports of other goods declined 5.8% (-1.5% y/y) in October.

Imports of petroleum products fell 8.5% during October (-17.5% y/y) after a 1.9% decline as the cost of crude petroleum fell to $68.38 per barrel (-13.0% y/y) from $71.44 per barrel in September. The value of nonpetroleum imports weakened 5.3% (+5.1% y/y) in October after rising 4.4% in September.

The services trade surplus fell to $24.8 billion in October from $25.2 billion in September which had been the largest surplus since November 2019. Services exports rose 1.1% (8.8% y/y) following a 0.6% September rise. Transport exports rose 1.6% (6.5% y/y) while travel exports gained 1.6% (8.3% y/y). Insurance exports rose 2.0% (15.4% y/y) while charges for the use on intellectual property improved 1.1% (7.9% y/y). Services imports increased 2.1% (9.9% y/y) in October following a 0.4% slip. Transport services rose 1.3% (11.2% y/y) while travel imports rose 5.1% (10.2% y/y). Insurance imports gained 2.4% (20.8% y/y) while charges for the use of intellectual property rose 3.3% (26.8% y/y).

The inflation-adjusted goods trade deficit (customs value) narrowed to $92.4 billion in October after widening sharply to $99.7 billion in September. Real exports declined 4.2% (-1.1% y/y) while real imports rose 5.5% (2.2% y/y).

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $25.5 billion in October after widening to $26.9 billion in September. Exports fell 6.0% (-14.5% y/y) while imports fell 5.4% (-0.8% y/y). The goods trade deficit with the European Union narrowed to $17.1 billion in October from a record $23.8 billion in September. Exports improved 0.2% (2.6% y/y) and imports declined 12.2% (-1.3% y/y). The trade shortfall with Japan increased to $6.5 billion in October after deepening to $5.3 billion in the previous month. Exports fell 5.7% (+0.4% y/y) while imports increased 6.5% (1.8% y/y).

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Both exports and imports post declines.	
- Lower oil prices help push imports sharply lower. 
- Goods trade deficit with China narrows but with Japan it deepens.

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply in October

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 9,000 in the week ended November 30 to 224,000 seasonally adjusted, from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week was revised from 213,000 to 215,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected the latest week to be 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,250, up 750 from the November 23 week of 217,500, revised from 217,000.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries was 1.871 million in the week ended November 23, down 25,000 from the November 16 week revised level. That week’s level was revised down 11,000 from 1.907 million to 1.896 million. This total number of beneficiaries is also known as “continuing claims.” The 4-week moving average was 1.884 million in the week ended November 23, a decrease of 3,250 from 1.888 million in the week ended November 16, revised from 1.890 million.

The insured unemployment rate, that is, the total number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment, was 1.2% in the week ended November 23, after two weeks at 1.3%. Prior to these two weeks at 1.3%, the insured unemployment rate had been for 20 continuous months at 1.2%.

Economic conditions vary widely across areas of the country. The Labor Department reports that for the week ended November 16, the insured unemployment rate for New Jersey was 2.30%, in California 2.04%, Washington State 1.97%, Puerto Rico 1.95%, Alaska 1.90%, Rhode Island 1.72%, Nevada 1.67%, New York 1.57%, Massachusetts and Minnesota each 1.56%, and Illinois 1.54%. The lowest rates were in South Dakota 0.32%, Florida 0.36%, Virginia 0.41%, Alabama 0.43%, Kentucky 0.44%, Nebraska and New Hampshire each 0.46%, Tennessee 0.48%, Mississippi 0.53%, North Dakota 0.54%, and Arkansas and Oklahoma each 0.58%. These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims up slightly in last two weeks.
- Continued claims down moderately in mid-November.
- Insured unemployment rate back to 1.2%.

U.S. Jobless Claims Rose by 9,000 in November 30 Week

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The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% during November, up from four consecutive months of 0.2% gain. Expectations had been for a 0.2% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y increase picked up to 2.7% from 2.6% in October and was the quickest rise in four months. The three-month increase rose to 3.0% (AR) from 2.5% but remained below the 4.6% high in April of this year. Prices excluding food & energy rose an expected 0.3% for the fourth consecutive month. Core consumer prices increased 3.7% (AR) during the last three months, up from 1.6% in July, and 3.3% y/y. Food prices rose 0.4% last month (2.4% y/y) after a 0.2% gain while energy prices rose 0.2% (-3.2% y/y) after holding steady in October.

The CPI less food, energy and shelter, another measure of core pricing power, rose 0.3% after a 0.2% gain. The 2.2% y/y rise was increased from a July low of 1.7% but remained below the 7.6% y/y peak in February 2022. It compared to a low of 0.3% y/y in May 2020.

Services costs less energy rose a steady 0.3% in November (4.6% y/y). Shelter costs rose 0.3% following a 0.4% rise in October. Its 4.7% y/y rise compares to an 8.2% peak in March 2023. Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.2% (4.9% y/y), following a 0.4% rise and was the weakest increase since April 2021. Rents of primary residences rose a similarly depressed 0.2% (4.4% y/y) after two consecutive months of 0.3% rise, but the cost of lodging away from home surged 3.2% (3.7% y/y) following a 0.4% October gain. Transportation service prices held steady last month (+7.1% y/y) after rising 0.4% in October, as public transportation prices also were unchanged (2.9% y/y) after a 2.4% October surge. Medical care service costs rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) the same as in October. Education & communication prices eased 0.2% (+1.8% y/y) for the second straight month. Recreation services prices rose 0.7% (3.5% y/y), the same as in October.

During November, the CPI for goods less food & energy increased 0.3% (-0.6% y/y) after holding steady in October. Home furnishings prices rose 0.7% (-1.0% y/y), as appliance costs also rose 0.7% (-1.0% y/y).  Apparel costs rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y) after a 1.5% decline. Education & communication product costs fell 1.1% (-5.4% y/y) the same as in October while medical care product prices declined 0.1% (NSA, +0.4% y/y) in November. Prices for recreation products weakened 0.5% (-1.5% y/y), the fourth decline in five months. Transportation product prices rose 0.9% (-1.4% y/y) after improving 0.8%. New vehicle prices rose 0.6% (-0.7% y/y) after holding steady while used car & truck prices strengthened 2.0% (-3.4% y/y) after a 2.7% rise.

Food prices rose 0.4% (2.4% y/y) in November following a 0.2% October increase. Egg prices rebounded 8.2% (37.5% y/y) after a 6.4% decline. Meat, poultry & fish prices rebounded 1.1% (1.5% y/y) after falling 0.8% while cereal & bakery product prices weakened 1.1% (-0.5% y/y) after a 1.0% rise. Fruit & vegetable prices rose 0.2% (1.1	% y/y) after increasing 0.4%, while dairy prices eased 0.1% (+1.2% y/y) after rising 1.0% in October. Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 1.5% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.4% October rise.

Energy prices rose 0.2% (-3.2% y/y) in November after holding steady in October. Gasoline prices rose 0.6	% (-8.1% y/y) after three straight monthly declines. Amongst other energy products, fuel oil & propane prices rose 0.4% (-10.7% y/y) after declining 2.2%. Electricity prices eased 0.4% (3.1% y/y) after a 1.2% gain, while natural gas prices jumped 1.0% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.3% October gain.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Food prices pick up.
- Services price gains remain steady.
- Core goods prices pick up.

U.S. CPI Picks Up Modestly in November; Core Prices Rise Steadily

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