Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

US is big leader in global surge in private AI investment

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 3,000 to 209,000 in the week ending May 16, from 212,000 in the week ending May 9, revised from 211,000. The four-week average declined by 1,500 to 202,500 in the week ending May 16, from 204,000 the May 9 week, revised marginally from 203,750. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 210,000 claims to have been filed. 

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 6,000 to 1.782 million in the week ending May 9, from 1.776 million in the week ending May 2, revised from 1.782 million. The four-week moving average declined to 1.773 million in the latest week from 1.780 in the May 2 week, revised from 1.781 million. The four-week moving average reached the lowest level since January 2024. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of May 9. Except for a one-week dip to 1.1% in the week of April 25, the insured unemployment rate has been at 1.2% since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending May 2, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.17%) and Washington (2.11%). The lowest rates were in Florida and South Dakota (both 0.30%), Louisiana (0.32%), Alabama (0.35%), Arkansas (0.37%), North Carolina (0.38%), Tennessee (0.47%) and Iowa, Kansas, Virginia and Virgin Islands (all 0.48%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.97%), New York (1.61%), Illinois (1.51%), Pennsylvania (1.26%), and Texas (1.01%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.



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- New claims declined by 3,000 to 209,000 in the week ending May 16.
- Continuing claims rose by 6,000 to 1.782 million.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of May 9.


U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Declined in the Week of May 16

Robert Brusca

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CPI inflation in the UK eased sharply in April with the headline making no change at all and the core rising by only 0.1%. The headline is a marked departures from March when the UK CPI rose by 0.4% as the core put in another good month, rising 0.1%. Sequentially, UK inflation as measured by the CPIH has been relatively stable with a 3% growth rate over 12 months, a 3% annual rate over three-months, and a gain of 2.9% annualized over six-months; it's about as steady as you can get. The core (CPH excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) rises 2.9% over 12 months, eases to a 2.7% annual rate over six-months, then rises at a 2% annual rate over three-months.

**Low inflation amid a global surge in oil prices**
The core is showing significant temperance and sequential improvement. Meanwhile, globally oil prices are flaring sharply, and most countries are seeing inflation rates rise. An energy cap in the UK is holding energy costs down and helping to keep the headline rate of inflation low. However, the cap can only work its magic for so long, eventually persisting strength in oil prices are going to show through into the headline index.

**Acceleration tendencies abate**
In April, 50% of the categories of the CPI H showed acceleration compared to March; in March only 41% had accelerated compared to February; in February only 41% had accelerated compared to January. On a broad basis, inflation acceleration has been substantially neutralized or controlled. Sequential calculations show that over three-months acceleration has occurred in 50% of the categories, over six-months and 12-months, however, acceleration has occurred in only 33% of the categories, indicating that there has been a relatively long-lived environment of inflation temperance.

**Still Too high**
However, inflation in the UK remains relatively high. The HICP measure, which is comparable to the measures used on the continent by the European Central Bank, has a 69th-percentile standing when ranked on data back to 2000. The CPIH has a 75.1-percentile standing and the CPIH-core has an 81.5 percentile standing. These are based on year-over-year percent changes and the two inflation gauges.

Inflation rankings tell us that inflation in the UK is still relatively high compared to how it has performed over the last 25 years. However, what's most important is inflation relative to the target of 2%. At 3% the inflation rate is too high and at 2.9% the core inflation rate is too-high as well. However, we see the shorter-term inflation rates particularly for the core have come down. The core rate over three-months has even reached the 2% mark, which is both encouraging and surprising. The UK economy has been performing poorly. The Bank of England will certainly be making its next monetary policy decision based on the performance of inflation with some assessment and how the trend is faring as well as with reference to economic performance which has been marginal. We will have to see how the BOE looks at the effect of the energy cap. At the same time there's a great deal of political turmoil in the UK to pair with difficult global geopolitical conditions


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United Kingdom

UK CPIH Eases Amid Global Oil Price Shock 

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Mortgage applications declined 2.3% w/w (+18.9% y/y) in the week ending May 15, after rising 1.7% w/w (15.5% y/y) in the week ending May 8, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house dropped 4.1% w/w (+8.0% y/y) in the May 15 week, following a rise of 3.9% w/w (6.7% y/y) in the May 8 week.  Applications for loan refinancing edged down 0.1% w/w (+34.8% y/y) in the latest week after declining 0.8% w/w (+28.3% y/y) in the May 8 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 9bps to 6.73% in the week ending May 15 from 6.64% in the week ending May 8. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 12bps to 6.11% in the latest week from 5.99% in the week ending May 8. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 5bps to 6.69% in the May 15 week from 6.64% in the May 8 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM also rose 5bps to 6.07% in the latest week from 6.02% in the week ending May 8.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 41.9% of total applications in the week of May 15 from 40.8% in the May 8 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 9.6% in the May 15 week from 8.8% in the week ending May 8.

The average size of a mortgage loan declined 1.4% w/w (+3.5% y/y) to $403,200 in the week ending May 15, after retrenching 0.5% w/w (+2.9% y/y) to $409,000 in the week ending May 8. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.1% w/w (+4.6% y/y) to $466,900 in the latest week from $467,200 in the May 8 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 3.0% w/w (+8.1% y/y) to $314,700 in the May 15 week from $324,500 in the May 8 week. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.


- Both applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose 9bps to 6.73%. 
- Average loan size declined.


U.S. Mortgage Applications dropped in the May 15 Week 

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Japan’s GDP rose 2.1% annualized in 2026-Q1. The gain beat expectations for the quarter. The 2.1% rise was the largest gain since a 2.7% rise in 2024-Q3. However, it still leaves the year-on-year gain for GDP at 0.4%, the same as for 2025-Q4. And these are the weakest growth rates since Q1 and Q2 of 2024 when Japan’s GDP was declining. 

Private consumption in 2026-Q1 rose by 1.1% quarterly at an annualized rate, its strongest gain in a year. Still, the year-on-year rise in private consumption slowed to 1% from 1.4% in 2025 Q4. Growth in private consumption on a year-on-year basis is the weakest it has been since 2024-Q4. 

Despite some signs of GDP/Consumption stirring, the quarterly performance is not enough to boost the year-on-year growth rates to a position of strength, let alone firmness. Japan has simply been struggling for a while. And now with inflation bulging the BoJ has been super careful to move rates exceptionally slowly so that real interest rates in Japan remain exceptionally low (negative, still) and the prospect of rate normalization in Japan still seems to be a distant dream. 

New PM Sanae Takaichi called her snap election and improved her grip on government and is still looking to stimulate the economy, but Japan’s fiscal position is now so precarious that even the usual incantation that Japan owns most of its debt to itself (its own residents) has not been reassuring. Japan has become wary of is debt-to-GDP ratio. The time for a fiscal surge has passed and there is talk instead of a new industrialization policy to try to stimulate the economy within the realm of current spending trends by offering improved incentives for growth. 

Capital formation in GDP grew by 2.1% in 2026-Q1, a down shift for 2025-Q4, but capital spending is in a period of some volatility. The year-on-year gains show a step up in Q1 spending to a pace of 1.5% from 1.2% in the previous quarter. The five-year growth rate for capital spending is only 0.8% per year. Still there is not much here to build economic revival on. 

Plant and equipment spending has weakened in Q1, showing an annualized Q/Q gain of 1.1% and that compares to five-year annualized growth of 1.8%. Year-on-year plant and equipment growth is at 2.8%. 

Spending on housing turned sharply higher in Q4 with a smaller continued gain Q/Q in 2026-Q1. Still, after some considerable weakness quarterly, the year-on-year gain in housing spending in Japan in 2026-Q1 is -3.1% marking the third quarter in a row of declining spending on housing year-over-year. 

Net exports in Japan turned sharply higher in 2026-Q1 and year-on-year the change in the GDP-net exports balance swung from negative to positive. The annual improvement in the net export position is still only half of what it had been over the last five years. Export growth spiked while import growth stepped up in 2025-Q1. Exports and imports over the past year both growth more slowly than their 5-year averages.

Domestic demand picked up a bit Q/Q in 2026, but the year-on-year growth slipped to 0.3% compared to a gain of 1.2% in the previous quarter. 

Japanese officials are engaged in active market talk to try to restrain further slippage in the yen. Markets buzz with rumors of intervention that has not happened for over a month. Japan’s decision on interest rate is also caught up in its concerns about the yen. Meanwhile, as Japan imports all its fuel and rising energy prices are a concern in Japan. Yet the concern is about the future more than anything else since Japan tends to sign long-dated energy contracts and likely has locked up its oil price costs for this year. Still, the ongoing pressure has put conditions in doubt for the year ahead. 

On balance Japan growth in 2026-Q1 was somewhat better than expected but it has done nothing to assuage concerns about the way forward. Ongoing inflation and a reticence to hike rates to address inflation continue to stalk the policy outlook as PM Takaichi looks for a way out of Japan’s weak growth trap. 









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Japan

Japan GDP Outperforms Expectations

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we review the key outcomes from last week’s US–China summit, which, while largely symbolic as a reset in bilateral relations, also yielded several notable trade-related agreements (chart 1). We also examine China’s latest monthly data releases, which extended last month’s moderation in growth and further highlighted the increasingly two-speed nature of its economy (chart 2). Turning to Japan, we look ahead to this week’s key data releases. Q1 GDP growth appears likely to be supported by resilient exports, while the domestic picture—reflected in indicators such as household spending—continues to lag (chart 3). On the inflation front, upcoming CPI readings will be closely watched; if price pressures accelerate further alongside continued yen weakness, this could revive a policy dilemma for the Bank of Japan (chart 4). Zooming out, inflation appears to have reasserted itself as the dominant market driver, with nominal yields rising across markets (chart 5). At the same time, AI-related optimism has taken a back seat for now, as equity markets pull back from recent rallies (chart 6).

**The US-China summit**
The highly anticipated US–China summit concluded last week, with few details released immediately afterward. More information emerged early this week, as the White House outlined several key developments. Perhaps most importantly, though largely symbolic at this stage, the two sides agreed to build a “constructive relationship of strategic stability.” While the phrase does not imply any concrete policy actions, it may signal a shift away from the repeated tensions and frictions that have characterized recent interactions. The US and China also agreed that the Strait of Hormuz should be reopened, although no specific measures were announced to achieve this. On more tangible outcomes, the White House said China approved an initial purchase of 200 Boeing aircraft for Chinese airlines and committed to buying at least $17 billion of US agricultural products annually from 2026 to 2028. China also restored market access for US beef by renewing expired registrations for more than 400 US beef facilities and adding new listings, while resuming imports of US poultry.

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**China’s latest data releases**
Overall, the US–China summit signalled a more conciliatory tone between the world’s two largest economies, with the initially announced agreements broadly reinforcing that shift, including plans to establish two new boards focused on trade and investment. Meanwhile, China’s latest data releases offered further insight into the economy’s performance amid the ongoing oil supply squeeze linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Extending the slowdown already evident in March, April data showed weaker growth in retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment, as illustrated in chart 2. In the case of fixed asset investment, year-to-date growth slipped into contraction territory. The increasingly two-speed nature of China’s economy is becoming more apparent. On one hand, robust exports and still-solid manufacturing activity continue to support overall growth. On the other, softer retail sales and broader domestic demand remain a persistent drag on the economy.

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**Japan**
Beyond China, Japan will also be in focus this week, with several key indicators on growth and inflation due for release. Most notably, Japan’s preliminary Q1 GDP reading, due Tuesday, will provide the first comprehensive snapshot of the economy after incorporating the initial effects of the Middle East conflict. As with China, Japan’s economy exhibits a two-speed dynamic. Strong export growth is likely to have supported Q1 activity, reflecting resilient external demand. However, domestic indicators such as household spending continue to point to a fragile underlying picture (chart 3). This leaves Japan exposed to a similar risk as China: If external demand weakens under the weight of rising oil prices and broader uncertainty stemming from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, growth could come under significant pressure in the absence of secondary growth drivers.

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Inflation will also be a key focus in Japan this week, given its implications for household purchasing power, real economic growth, and monetary policy. While inflation is not yet showing a full resurgence, nationwide consumer price inflation picked up in March (chart 4), and Tokyo CPI data pointed to a modest firming in price pressures in April. These developments have coincided with a prolonged weakening of the yen, which, while supportive of exports, also raises inflationary pressures by increasing the cost of imported goods. If inflation were to return to the peaks seen in previous years, the Bank of Japan could once again face a policy dilemma, particularly if economic growth slows at the same time. In that scenario, the BoJ would need to balance the risks of persistent inflation against the need to support a weakening economy.

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**Market shifts**
Zooming out to broader market developments, and taking into account the recent US–China summit, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and earlier AI-driven optimism, it appears that AI enthusiasm has, for now, ceded its role as the dominant market driver. In its place, renewed inflation concerns have taken centre stage, weighing on bond prices and pushing yields higher, as shown in chart 5. This dynamic is particularly evident in some economies, such as Japan. While nominal government bond yields have risen sharply, real yields have edged lower, implying that inflation expectations have increased. These rising inflation expectations likely reflect the continued apparent impasse in US–Iran negotiations, along with the absence of concrete actions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease pressure on global energy markets.

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At the same time, AI optimism—which had previously underpinned equity market performance—has appeared to lose some momentum as a dominant price driver, with inflation concerns moving to the forefront. As shown in chart 6, after months of seemingly uninterrupted gains, equity indices in advanced Asian economies—typically heavy in technology and semiconductor exposure—pulled back last Friday, with further declines observed in Monday’s trading session. This shift has coincided with firmer crude oil prices, reinforcing the narrative that inflation risks and supply-side pressures linked to the Strait of Hormuz disruption are now firmly back in focus.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: After the Summit

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Confidence for Turkey in April improved rising by 1.5% month-to-month to an index value of 96.42.  Services and retail confidence both rose on the month as confidence in Construction fell by a sharp 3.6%, partly reversing an even sharper gain form a month ago. 

The sequential performance of confidence in Turkey finds overall, services and retail sector confidence accelerating. Construction confidence is stronger over 3-months than over 12-months but its six-month gain shows slowing. Performance is still getting settled and the service and retail sector readings are still lower on balance over 12-months, even as they show acceleration and growth in train. Turky is a work in progress. 

The individual sector standings of the confidence metrics by sector are surprisingly similar and cluster around the 20-percentile mark. Overall confidence at 22.7% has the strongest reading while the weakest sector reading is 17.4-percent and it finds construction and services in a tie for the lowest index rank standing. 

The table also ranks confidence by growth rates, comparing growth over the past year across the sector readings. The growth sectors have relatively strong reading that the sector index standings. That is an admission that conditions currently have, when compared back to 2012, ranked weaker than the level of economic conditions (as proxied by confidence, of course) evaluated over the same period. It is evidence that some improvement in conditions (perceived improvement) is underway. The growth rate rankings stretch from the 32nd percentile to the 53rd percentile- all the growth standings exceed the index standings. 

The growth in construction at a 53.5-perntiel standing is above its median growth rate since January 2012. Overall confidence still has a growth rate below its median at a 41.9 percentile standing; the shortfall is significant but not severe. Services and retail are more significant laggard with growth rate standings in their respective 32nd- and 33rd-percentiles – historically, reading that are higher about two-thirds of the time on the timeline back to early 2012.

Turkey continues to experience high inflation at 33% over the last year, a small deceleration from the month before. With global energy price pressures rising, Turkey’s central bank has recently lifted its outlook for inflation hear as well. The economy grew about 3.6% this year; it is on track for about 3% growth. Confidence readings suggest some ambivalence to these conditions. By this time, the population has gotten used to the high inflation. But growth has not stepped up significantly. That could be the key driver for improved expectations and confidence. But it is not yet a reality. Turkey is still, affected, of course, by the war-time conditions in Iran that is right on its border. 


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Turkey

Confidence in Turkey Advances 

Sandy Batten

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Industrial production (IP) rose a much larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m in April, rebounding from an upwardly revised 0.3% m/m decline in March (previously -0.5% m/m), according to data released by the Federal Reserve Board. The Action Economics Survey looked for a 0.2% monthly gain. The y/y rate also rebounded in April, rising to 1.4% y/y after having fallen to 0.7% in March. IP has clearly trended up since late last year. Since November 2025, it has grown at a 3.6% annual rate. The current level of output is the highest since August 2019 but is still 1.5% below the November 2018 series peak.

Manufacturing output led the April rebound, rising 0.6% m/m (1.3% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.1% monthly increase in March (previously -0.1% m/m). Mining output fell in April for the second consecutive month, edging down 0.1% m/m (+0.2% y/y) after a 1.6% monthly drop in March (revised down from -1.2% m/m). Utilities production rebounded in April, jumping 1.6% m/m (2.7% y/y) and more than offsetting a 1.4% monthly decline in March (revised up from -2.3% previously). The rebound in utilities output reflected a 1.1% rise in electricity production and a 7.3% monthly jump in natural gas distribution, the first monthly gain in four months.

Within manufacturing, durable goods production jumped 1.2% m/m (3.2% y/y) in April after having been unchanged in March. A 3.7% m/m rebound in motor vehicles and parts production, the largest monthly gain since May 2025, led the April increase. Motor vehicles and parts production had fallen 2.4% m/m in March. Production of computers and electronic products increased 1.5% m/m, the fourth consecutive monthly rise. Aerospace output rose 1.6% m/m in April, the third consecutive monthly gain and the largest since July 2025. By contrast, furniture production fell 1.8% m/m, the third consecutive monthly decline. 

Output of nondurable manufactured goods edged down 0.1% m/m (-0.6% y/y) in April, the first monthly decline in four months. Production of apparel and leather goods slumped 2.2% m/m on top of a 2.0% monthly fall in March. Chemical output fell 0.9% m/m in April, its first monthly decline in four months. Output of plastics and rubber products fell 0.9% m/m, the first monthly fall in four months. By contrast, production of petroleum and coal products rose 1.0% m/m in April, the same monthly increase as in March.

By market group, output of consumer goods rebounded in April, increasing 0.9% m/m (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.8% m/m decline in March. Production of business equipment surged 1.5% m/m (+6.0% y/y) in April, the largest monthly gain since March 2025. Output of construction supplies was unchanged in April from March (+1.2% y/y) following a 0.9% m/m gain in March. Materials production rebounded in April, rising 0.5% m/m (1.2% y/y) after a 0.4% m/m decline in March.

In special classifications, output of selected high-tech industries increased 1.0% m/m (+9.2% y/y) in April following a 0.5% monthly gain in March. The rebound in motor vehicles and parts production reflected a 5.3% monthly surge in vehicle output, the largest monthly gain since May 2025. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries rose 0.6% m/m in April, the largest increase since February 2025, following a 0.1% m/m increase in March. Manufacturing output excluding both selected high-tech industries and motor vehicles and parts advanced 0.3% m/m in April, the same monthly gain as in March.

Capacity utilization rose to 76.1% in April from 75.7% in March. The April reading was the highest since last August but was still 3.3%-points below its long-term (1972-2025) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization increased to 75.8% in April from 75.4% in March, 2.4%-points below its long-term average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Total industrial output increased a much larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m in April with a small upward revision to March.
- Manufacturing output increased 0.6% m/m, led by a 5.3% m/m rebound in vehicle production.
- Mining output edged down 0.1% m/m, while utilities production rose 1.9% m/m.
- The headline rate of capacity utilization rose to 76.1% in April, its highest reading since last August but still well below its long-term average.


U.S. Industrial Production Jumped in April

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Industrial orders in Canada are back on an expansion path with orders growing 4.7% in March on top of a 6.9% gain in February. These statistics chronicle Canadian orders digging out from a hole they fell into early in 2026. Now the data show emerging sequential growth in Canadian orders, which are advancing 3.6% over 12 months at a 14.9% annual rate over six-months, and a 26.7% annual rate over three-months. Still, on the chart that plots the year-over-year growth rates these recent accelerated rates of growth appear as mere recoveries from what had been earlier weakness. It remains to be seen how much acceleration the Canadian economy will actually undergo.

Unfilled orders expanded in March for the second month in a row, growing 2.4% after growing 1.4% in February once again following the recovery theme.

Manufacturing shipments grew by 3% in March after growing 3.4% in February and after dropping sharply in January - again echoing the recovery theme. Durable goods show two months of increases with the March increase weak after a very strong rise in February. Motor vehicle output recovered very strongly in February, after falling at a 37.1% annual rate in January; motor vehicle output is up by 15% in March, a hefty growth rate but short of what was posted in February. Once again, we see an echo of the theme of recovery. However, shipments of durable goods excluding motor vehicles are less robust, after dropping 1.8% in January output rose by 3.8% in February and has fallen back, dropping by 1.1% in March, a small fly in the ointment of this recovery theme for Canada. And nondurable goods shipments saw a small increase in January of 0.2%, a flat February, and now an extremely strong, 5.6% month-to-month gain in March.

Canada's sequential growth rates are on the verge of showing broad acceleration. Orders clearly do accelerate from 12-months to six-months to three-months. Unfilled orders, however, accelerate over six-months compared to 12-months and then take a small step back over three-months to an annualized growth rate of 13.4% - a very small step back that is still far above the 12-month growth pace. Manufacturing shipments, too, show a small flaw in acceleration as the 6-month pace dips ever so slightly before logging a very strong 3-month pace. Durable goods then are an exception to the acceleration theme; however, nondurable goods get back on board with the strong acceleration move.

**Rankings**
The rank standings for these categories are based on annual growth rates and comparison with data extend back approximately 25 years. Orders have a 58-percentile standing, unfilled orders have a 57-percentile standing, while manufacturing shipments have a 62-percentile standing. Shipments for durable goods durables excluding motor vehicles and from motor vehicles as a stand-alone have rankings in their 30th- to 40th-percentiles, below their historic medians. (medians occur at a ranking of 50). However, nondurables have an extremely strong 80.5 percentile standing. The data are consistent, the recovery and progress with the exception that durable goods shipments that are not fully on board and languish below their historic median results. Ranking the data over six-month growth rates improves the results somewhat and brings motor vehicles on board for a growth rate that is above its historic median.

**Signs of improvement**
Goods-based industry shows signs of picking up even in March as oil prices were rising and industry was facing greater challenges. The US industrial production report for April, similarly, shows acceleration across the board, even as the economy continued to deal with the difficulties of rising oil prices. Of course, the Canadian US economies are closely linked; we would expect the manufacturing sectors to be performing with some degree of synchronization. However, there's no reason to be complacent about the outlook. Oil prices have continued to rise, the challenge to consumers is strong and across all countries. In the US special tax cuts enacted last year, which went into effect earlier this year, have helped to deliver extra money to consumers that have helped them deal with the oil price shock. But these were funds that were supposed to help stimulate the economy to higher growth and were planned by the President to help him with midterm elections coming later in the year. The US economy still has to deal with those realities with sharply divided political reality as well.

**Outlook**
The US acrimony with Canada has taken a back burner for a while. And as that has happened the Canadian economy has come back to life. However, Canada still has some problems with inflation although it also has a broader inflation target to accommodate some flexibility. And the prospect for more inflation because of global oil prices continues to hang in the balance. The results for March are encouraging but certainly not definitive. Canada has mounted a nice recovery after a period of difficulty earlier in the year but it's still hard to say what comes next.



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Canada

Canadian Industry Perks Up

Winnie Tapasanun

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.14 in April from -0.15 in March (-0.20 initially) and +0.09 in February (+0.03 previously), today’s report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed, indicating economic growth increased to its highest level since March 2025. The April CFNAI marked the third positive reading in four months and the first m/m rise since January; it was above a low of -0.49 in October 2025 and a reading of -0.36 in April 2025 but below a high of +0.39 in February 2025.

The index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, inched up to +0.03 in April from +0.02 in March (-0.03 initially), marking the third consecutive positive reading following nine straight negative figures. However, it was slightly below +0.06 in April 2025 and a high of +0.07 in February 2025. The CFNAI-MA3 is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the Chicago Fed indicates that an average reading of -0.70 or below is consistent with the economy being in a recession. Therefore, the April reading confirmed that the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession.

The April reading reflected m/m increases in two of the four CFNAI key components and two positive contributions. The contribution of the Production & Income index to the CFNAI rose to +0.18 in April, the highest reading since February 2025, from -0.13 in March; it was above -0.11 in April 2025 and a low of -0.61 in January 2024. The contribution of the Sales, Orders & Inventories index increased to +0.02 in April, the fourth positive reading in five months, from -0.03 in March; it was above its recent low of -0.17 in September 2025 and a low of -0.20 in April 2025. Meanwhile, the Employment, Unemployment & Hours index contributed -0.02 in April, down from a neutral value (0.00) in March but marginally above -0.03 in April 2025. The contribution of the Personal Consumption & Housing index fell to -0.04 in April, a three-month low, from 0.00 in March; it was below -0.03 in April 2025 and a high of +0.10 in March 2025.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index—which measures the breadth of change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average—improved to +0.06 in April, the highest reading since October 2022, following +0.03 in March (-0.04 initially) and negative readings during the March 2023 to February 2026 period. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. The April reading was above a low of -0.55 in October 2025 and -0.13 in April 2025 but below a high of +0.14 in September 2022.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- CFNAI +0.14 in April, highest since March ’25; -0.15 in March.
- Two of four CFNAI components up m/m; two make positive contributions.
- CFNAI-MA3 edges up to +0.03, third straight positive reading; above -0.70 (recession signal).
- CFNAI Diffusion Index rises to +0.06, highest since Oct. ’22.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Turns Positive in April

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**ENERGY** → Petroleum → Petroleum Product Prices Including Pump Prices → Nepal

Retail fuel prices for Nepal were added to the **ENERGY**, **INTDAILY** and **INTWKLY** databases. Fuels included in this table are petrol, diesel, kerosene, liquefied petroleum gas and jet fuel. These 7-day daily data are sourced from the Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) and start in November 2017.

Chart: Arguably, nowhere has felt the effects of the war in Iran more than Asia, as nearly 90% of the oil and gas passing through the Strait of Hormuz is bound for Asian countries. Nepal imports all its fuel from India – and thus these disruptions have caused steep price hikes, widespread shortages, and has forced the state-owned NOC into massive financial losses as they absorb some of the blow to consumers through subsidies. In the past two months, the price of petrol has increased by 36%, diesel by 53% and jet fuel by 102%. Natural gas, which is considered an essential household utility, has only seen a 4% increase primarily due to subsidies.

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**GLSECTOR** → Selected Indicators by Country → Angola → Mining → Diamond Mining

Diamond mining statistics for Angola have been added to the **GLSECTOR** database. Series include carats of diamonds produced, average price per carat, and industrial taxes and royalties collected. These monthly data are sourced from the Angola Ministry of Finance and start in January 2001.

Chart: Despite fragile global demand and competition from synthetic diamonds, Angola continues to break production records, mining 16.7 million carats in 2025, an increase of 33.9% YoY following a 40.2% increase in 2024. These gains have made Angola one of the world’s top diamond producers by value. It has deliberately traded volume for value by offloading large inventories of diamonds onto the global market. However, this has driven the average price per carat down 39% YoY to $123.21 – and further down to $85.33 in Feb 2026.

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**INTDAILY** → Americas → United States → US Surprise Indexes

Haver-calculated US Economic Surprise Indexes were added to **INTDAILY** and **DAILY**. The series are based on the Action Economics median forecasts relative to the corresponding as first reported figures. The series cover key economic concepts and sectors including GDP, production and capacity, current account and trade, consumers, housing, labor and inflation. Economic growth, hard and soft data aggregates are also available. Daily data start in May 2004.

Chart: A 10-year snapshot of the inflation surprise index (red) plotted against the differences between as reported and expected values for the underlying inflation indicators. In this case, they are CPI, PPI, import prices, and the ECI. The surprise index is in positive territory during times when the concentration of instances when actual inflation exceeds expectations is greater.

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Featured Data Additions, May 20, 2026

In this week’s Letter, we examine the ongoing Middle East situation through another lens — namely, the fiscal costs it has imposed on Asian economies and the strains that are already beginning to emerge. While the recent surge in bond yields has largely been attributed to inflation-related concerns, yield spikes in some Asian economies have also arguably been driven by fiscal concerns, as governments step up bond issuance to finance support measures (chart 1).

In India, cracks are beginning to show in its fuel subsidy programme, with fuel prices now being raised as previously subsidised rates appear increasingly unsustainable, underscoring the inherently finite nature of such measures (chart 2). While Indonesia continues to hold the line by keeping Pertalite fuel prices unchanged, hikes in more premium fuel grades, coupled with the government’s broader slate of spending initiatives, have left investors increasingly on edge over the country’s fiscal sustainability (chart 3). In Japan, the cabinet is reportedly seeking to put together an additional budget to help cushion inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict. Although the Prime Minister has sought to allay concerns over additional bond issuance, broader fiscal concerns remain (chart 4).

Against this backdrop of fiscal strain , inflation risks, and geopolitical instability, it is also important to keep in mind the growth-supportive factors still in place across parts of Asia. In particular, the ongoing AI upcycle continues to support exports in several regional economies (chart 5). Taking these crosscurrents into account, we then turn to the week ahead, where central banks will continue to navigate the trade-off between growth and inflation amid a heavy slate of upcoming data releases, particularly across East Asia (chart 6).

**Bond markets**
Global yields have remained elevated, although some pullback has been seen in recent days (chart 1). Inflation-related concerns arising from elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict remain front and centre and are still widely cited as the main driver of the recent spike in nominal yields. However, other factors are also at play, particularly in certain economies. Contributing to the rise in yields in some economies are fiscal concerns. Regarding the US-Iran situation, hopes for a peace deal have once again been raised in recent days, only to be subsequently dampened, underscoring how little concrete progress has ultimately been made. In addition, fresh US strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats highlight the continued fragility of the situation. On balance, the world remains stuck in a state of limbo, holding its breath for a positive peace outcome — particularly the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — while the economic effects of its closure continue to weigh on the global economy.

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