Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Robert Brusca

260303E.jpg

Inflation in the European Monetary Union picked up in February, ahead of the beginning of new hostilities in the Middle East. The increase in the harmonized index of consumer prices moved up to 0.3% in February from 0.1% to January. Progression on the annual rate of price increase moved up to 1.9% over 12 months, to a 2.1% annual rate over six months, and to a 2.4% annual rate over three months.

This is a modest acceleration and not something to get particularly excited about, except that with new hostilities in the Middle East, oil prices have begun to rise significantly, and there will be apprehension about how much more there is to come. However, the initial oil price reaction was muted, and the follow-up price reaction has also been relatively muted so these will translate into a nontrivial impact on inflation and in the harmonized index for consumer prices in the monetary union, as well as in the key prices watched by central banks globally.

**Big Four Economies**
The Big Four economies in the monetary union produced scattered results in February. Germany produced no increase in its February HICP. The HICP for France jumped by 0.4% month-to-month. Spain showed an increase of 0.2%; Italy reported an outsized increase of 0.7% in February. Still, the January and February data for this group of countries show prices mostly very well behaved. If we simply multiply these 12 increases (four countries over three months) together we get prices rising at a 2.2% annual rate across all the countries over the three months. That is close to target. 

**Annual and Sequential Big Four Inflation**
Inflation for the Big Four economies ranges from a top pace of 2.4% in Spain to the lowest pace of 1.1% in France with Italy's 1.6% and Germany's on-target 2% making up middle cases. Even the biggest price increase from Spain at 2.4% is not particularly frightening. Inside of 12 months looking at the six- and 3-month trends, Germany's trends move up to 2.6% over six months and then down to 1.2%. France's 6-month inflation remains at 1.1% over six months but then moves up to a 1.9% annual rate over three months. Italy's 12-month pace of 1.6% holds in place over six months, but then the 3-month inflation rate jumps to a 4.1% annual rate. For Spain, the 2.4% 12 month rate rises to a 3% annual rate over six months and then falls sharply to a 1.6% annual rate over three months.

**Headline vs. Core Inflation**
Headline inflation rates, of course, are mercurial because of the impact of oil prices on them. Two early reporters gave us core inflation or ex-energy inflation rates. In the case of Spain, core inflation is stuck at 2.7% on all horizons. Germany's index excluding energy is at 2.4% over 12 months, but then Germany’s six-month pace falls to 2.2%, and its three-month pace falls again to 1.7%. In the case of Germany, 12-month ex-energy inflation is mildly acceptable, but progressing to the three-month horizon, the inflation rate drops back well into place. For Spain, the 2.7% 12-month inflation rate persists across all horizons and is unacceptably high.

**Longer Trends**
Inflation is generally behaving and riding downtrends in the monetary union, with 12- month inflation generally lower than 12-month inflation was a year ago. That is true for all the major metrics in the table except two. The first exception is France when the 12-month inflation rate is 1.1% compared to 0.9% over 12 months a year ago (still, obviously very well behaved). In the case of Spain, core inflation moves up to 2.7% over 12 months after being at 2.2% just a year ago.

260303.jpg

**Events**
The inflation data this month show results we would more or less take in stride if it weren't for conflicts in the Middle East that are having a fresh upward effect on energy prices. We expect that to be reflected in next month’s inflation reports. Next month’s anticipated bad reaction will stack on top of this month when results came in worse than expected. For the most part, headline inflation is very close to its mark; however, core inflation shows signs of being stubborn and stuck at levels that are either slightly or more decidedly too high. This, of course, is a phenomenon we see in the United States with inflation stuck close to the 3% level, a percentage point above the Fed’s target. Europe’s situation is not unique.

**Oil and War: A Nasty Combination**
Since we're mostly talking about oil, it's highly likely that the European Central Bank is not going to be very concerned about these numbers because they're coming out of a state of warfare, and because, generally speaking, the inflation numbers are relatively close to target. Moreover, GDP growth rates right now are not particularly impressive. Unemployment rates are low across the euro area despite weak growth; there's no problem with the employment side of the equation. Monetary policy in an environment like this is going to be the product of the discretion of central bankers who are going to show us what they're worried about most and whether they're worried about disturbing the already weak rate of growth in their economy. Or are they going to be more committed to getting inflation down to target, a target they've been at least mildly missing for some time? Having war as the active ingredient in the inflation mix may be the deciding factor to keep the central bank on the sidelines. However, central bankers also know that ignoring an upturn in inflation whether it's caused by commodity prices, oil or something else is not a recipe for good monetary policy. For that reason, markets should be on alert in the coming months.

Inflation in Europe Picks Up – Ahead of Hostilities

Winnie Tapasanun

260302A44.jpg

260302B44.jpg

The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI dipped to 52.4 in February, the fourth m/m decline in five months, after a 4.7-point rebound to 52.6 in January, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed. The February reading, above the 50 expansion-contraction dividing line, indicated the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the second successive month and only the third in 40 months. A reading of 51.8 for February had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The February manufacturing PMI, while above 50.0 in February 2025 and a low of 47.0 in October 2024, remained below a peak of 63.8 in March 2021.

The production index fell to 53.5 in February from 55.9 in January (the highest level since February 2022), indicating production expanded for the fourth consecutive month but at a slower pace. The index was above its recent low of 44.8 in April 2025 but below a peak of 66.5 in March 2021. In February, 25.2% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while 16.0% reported lower production. The new orders index declined to 55.8 in February from 57.1 in January (also the highest level since February 2022), signaling new orders expanded for the second straight month following four successive months of contraction. The index remained well above a low of 41.8 in January 2023. In February, 30.3% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while a reduced 12.8% reported declines. The inventories index increased to 48.8 in February from 47.6 in January, marking the 10th straight month of contraction. The index was below its recent high of 52.7 in March 2025 but above a low of 43.8 in October 2024. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index rose to 55.1 in February from 54.4 in January, indicating slower delivery performance for the third consecutive month after faster deliveries in November. In February, 14.0% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while 3.8% reported faster speeds.

On the labor front, the employment index increased to 48.8 in February from 48.1 in January, showing that employment contracted for the 29th straight month after a brief expansion in September 2023; however, February’s contraction was the slowest since January 2025. The index was above its recent low of 44.1 in November 2025 but below its recent high of 49.7 in January 2025 and a high of 56.5 in March 2022. In February, 18.8% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 20.4% reported less hiring.

On the pricing front, the prices paid index jumped to 70.5 (NSA) in February from 59.0 in January, indicating raw materials prices rose for the 17th consecutive month and at the fastest pace since June 2022. The index remained well above a low of 39.4 in December 2022 but significantly below a high of 87.1 in March 2022 and a peak of 92.1 in June 2021. An increased 45.4% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices in February while only 4.4% reported price declines.

In other ISM series not included in the composite index, the new export orders index edged up to 50.3 in February from 50.2 in January, indicating new export orders expanded for the second successive month following 10 months of contraction. The index was up from a low of 40.1 in May 2025 but down from its recent high of 52.4 in January 2025 and a high of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index rose to 54.9 in February from 50.0 in January, suggesting imports expanded the first time since March 2025 and reached the highest level since February 2022. The index was above a low of 39.9 in May 2025. The order backlog index advanced to 56.6 (NSA) in February from 51.6 in January, showing that backlog levels expanded for the second straight month and hit the highest level since May 2022. The index was well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023 but far below a peak of 70.6 in May 2021.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

260302C44.jpg

260302D44.jpg

- ISM Mfg. PMI at 52.4 in Feb.; second consecutive month of expansion and only the third in 40 mths.
- Production (53.5) expands for the fourth straight mth.; new orders (55.8) expand for the second successive mth.
- Employment (48.8) contracts for the 29th straight mth. but at the slowest pace since Jan. ’25.
- Prices Index (70.5) hits its highest since June ’22, w/ prices rising for the 17th consecutive mth.
- Exports (50.3) expand for the second straight mth.; imports (54.9) reach the highest level since Feb. ’22.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Slips in February, Still Indicating Expansion

260302E.jpg

The S&P manufacturing PMI readings for February 2026 continued to show improvement, particularly on a sequential basis.

The chart shows a clear upward tendency for the United States, Japan, and the European Monetary Union where the manufacturing PMIs have been on an increasing track for some time. Japan just surpassed the U.S. this month where the manufacturing PMI reading surged above 50. The U.S. has been steady at that level for a number of months; Japan has just moved up while the euro area reading is starting to show some upward trend.

The table takes the underlying diffusion levels reported by these 18 early reporters and shuffles them into six different cohorts to summarize their performance over different periods.

In February, we see twice as many reporters in the cohort between 55 and 60 as we saw in January; that proportion moved up to 11.1% from 5.6%. The proportion in the 50 to 55 diffusion category (mild improvement) was unchanged at 55.6%; the proportion showing mild below median performance declined to 33.3% in February from 38.9% in January. The other cohorts showed no membership.

If we look at the data grouped into sequential categories of three-months, six-months, and 12-months, we see the neutral to mildly positive category of 50% to 55% moving from 28.2% of total membership over 12 months to 39.8% of membership over 6 months to 55.6% membership over 3 months. This is a clear improvement in performance over this timeline for the category indicating moderate expansion. The stronger expansion category of 55 to 60 shows a membership of 5.6% for all three-time horizons. The category showing weak declines in the 40 to 50 range for diffusion declined steadily from 66.2% over 12 months to 54.6% over 6 months to only 38.9% over 3 months. Over the last three months, fewer than 40% of the reporters were showing mild declines, 55% of the reporters were showing unchanged-to-moderate increases, while relatively larger increases have been posted by 5.6% of the reporters.

Looking back to the right of the table, we can compare the recent 12-month figures to the previous 12-months and to the 12-months before that to get a sense of the smoothed trend. There what we see is the 50 to 55 category three years ago was at 28.2% of the reporting membership; it moved up to 38% of the membership over just a year ago whereas over the past year that membership had slipped to 28% in an environment where tariffs were imposed. Although, as we see from the sequential data, it has over the shorter periods of six months and three months been seeing an increase in membership in that category.

Over the earlier years, there was also stronger membership in the stronger growth category of 55 to 60 percentile. Three years ago, it registered 8.3%, then fell to 6.4% and now sits at 5.6% over the recent 12 months. Over the recent shorter periods of three months and six months, there has yet to be an improvement in that category. As for the weaker category the cohort from 40 to 50%, we see 62% of the membership in that category three years ago, and two years ago that had fallen back to 55.6%, but then over the past year it had moved up to average 66% of the membership: fully 2/3 of the reporting membership over the last year has been in the 40 to 50 the diffusion category though that membership proportion has been falling over the last six and three months.

The grouped statistics show that there is general progress in place and in line with what we see reported in the chart. In addition, we track the number of reporters That are improving period to period. From 12 months to six months to three months, we see that percentage of reporters showing higher diffusion readings steadily improving from 50% to 61.1% to 77.8%. We also track the number of reporters with diffusion below 50 (that is those that are showing contraction) and that number hasn't changed very much; it's at 13 over 12 months and over 6 months while falling only to 12 over 3 months.

However, if we step away from averaging and we look at the raw scores for the last three months, we see the number of countries reporting output that's contracting at 8 in December, at 7 in January and at 6 in February, a clearer sense of progress. Meanwhile, on the monthly timeline, there's also a sense of improvement - not in a monotonic sense – but there is a hint of better general tendency for the percent of reporters that are showing the tendency for higher diffusion to be reported to rise.

The diffusion statistics are up to date, and they basically describe the proportion of the reporters that are seeing activity improve or decline in the reporting area. Diffusion data don’t tell us how strong that improvement is, just whether it's present. Diffusion data tend to be sensitive. They tend to quickly be able to identify changes in trends and right now we're seeing an uptick, an improvement, in the levels of diffusion being reported in this 18-country sample for manufacturing. The results are not decisive, but they are encouraging.

260302.jpg

S&P Manufacturing PMIs Show Improvement

Michael J. Moran

260227J.jpg

260227K.jpg

The headline PPI and its components sometimes move erratically, and that was certainly the case in January. The headline index (so-called final demand PPI) jumped 0.5%, one of the firmer readings of the past few years. However, a quick review of the detail in the report shows that marked changes in frequently noisy areas accounted for most of the pressure. Without such noise, the headline measure would have increased moderately, perhaps 0.1% or 0.2%.

Prices of food and energy are well known to move erratically, and they showed noticeable downside changes in January (off 1.5% and 2.7%, respectively). However, the highly volatile trade services category provided an offset with a surge of 2.5%, the sharpest monthly increase on record (data back to 2010). The Bureau of Labor Services is well aware of the volatile nature of these areas and offers an index excluding food, energy, and trade services to provide a perspective on underlying trends. This measure rose 0.3% in January, in line with other recent month-to-month changes. The year-over-year increase of 2.9% was comfortably within the recent range of observations (2.7% to 3.2% since mid-2025).

The change in prices excluding food, energy, and trade services seems tolerable in that it is comparable to other recent readings. However, some observers will highlight the uncomfortable rate of increase (3.0% versus a benchmark of 2.0% in the minds of many). Also, the sideways nature of the year-over-year change suggests little prospect of deceleration.

These points are well taken, but additional detail in the report offered a hint of softness. Another volatile item in the service category (transportation and warehouse services) rose 1.0% in January. This measure does not match the volatility in trade services, but it often shifts erratically. For example, last year this component rose 1.4% in one month and more than 0.5% in four other months, yet the average for the year was 0.2%. Future readings are likely to be well shy of the January advance.

An increase of 1.2% in the construction component also looks suspicious. This figure is reported to be seasonally adjusted, but there is a strong tendency to post high-side increases in the first month of a quarter. Observations in the next two months are likely to be noticeably softer, and the average for the year most likely will be well shy of 1.2%. The average increase last year was 0.2%.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260227L.jpg

260227M.jpg

- Prices of food and energy fell sharply, while prices of trade services surged.
- Other noisy areas (transportation & warehouse services, construction) posted high-side increases.
- Excluding the (apparently) random shifts, results were tame.

January PPI: Wild Swings in Volatile Areas

260227N.jpg

260227O.jpg

The value of construction put in place rose a slightly-more-than-expected 0.3% m/m in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,168.8 billion, reversing declines of 0.2% in November and 0.1% in October (+0.5% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. December marked the first m/m gain since August and the highest level in three months. A 0.2% m/m increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey for both November and December. The year-on-year rate was -0.4% in December following -1.4% in November, registering the 11th consecutive y/y decline. The latest y/y figure compared with a flat y/y reading in December 2024, remaining well below a high of 12.9% in December 2023 and a peak of 18.4% in April 2022. For all of 2025, construction spending fell 1.4% after gains of 5.7% in 2024 and 9.1% in 2023.

Private construction rebounded 0.5% (-1.5% y/y) to $1,647.1 billion in December, the first m/m gain in four months, after decreases of 0.2% in November and 0.1% in October (+0.6% previously). Residential private construction advanced 1.5% (-1.3% y/y) to $916.2 billion in December, the first m/m rise since August, after no change in November. Single-family building climbed 1.6% (-3.6% y/y) following a 0.6% November increase and eight straight m/m declines; it was 45.5% of the residential private construction. Multi-family building edged up 0.1% (2.9% y/y), the sixth m/m increase in seven months, after a 1.1% November rise; it was 12.7% of the residential private construction. Home improvement building recovered 1.8% (0.0% y/y), up the second time in three months, after a 1.0% November drop; it was 41.8% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction fell 0.7% (-1.8% y/y) to $730.9 billion in December, the third successive m/m fall and the fifth in six months, on top of a 0.5% decline in November. The December decrease reflected m/m drops across several nonresidential private construction categories, led by manufacturing (-2.5%; -11.4% y/y), followed by religious (-1.7%; +8.5% y/y), amusement & recreation (-1.1%; +7.9% y/y), health care (-0.8%; -3.7% y/y), commercial (-0.4%; +0.3% y/y), educational (-0.4%; +5.2% y/y), lodging (-0.2%; -1.1% y/y), and communication (-0.1%; -0.8% y/y). To the upside, nonresidential private constructions for utilities (+0.8%; +6.4% y/y) and office (+0.5%; +3.3% y/y) rose m/m in December. Meanwhile, transportation private construction was virtually unchanged (+4.6% y/y) after a 0.4% November decline.

The value of public construction fell 0.5% (+3.5% y/y) to $521.7 billion in December after m/m declines of 0.2% in November and 0.1% in October (+0.1% initially), reflecting drops of 2.7% (+9.1% y/y) in residential public construction and 0.4% (+3.4% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. Several nonresidential public construction categories declined m/m in December, led by water supply (-2.2%; +8.8% y/y), followed by public safety (-1.0%; +3.8% y/y), educational (-0.8%; -1.4% y/y), commercial (-0.6%; +7.3% y/y), transportation (-0.4%; +5.5% y/y), health care (-0.3%; +7.1% y/y), office (-0.3%; -2.6% y/y), and conservation & development (-0.1%; +8.7% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which accounted for 27.1% of public construction spending, slid 0.3% (+0.8% y/y) in December following a 0.4% rebound in November. In contrast, public constructions for utilities (+1.2%; +1.8% y/y), amusement & recreation (+0.5%; +4.6% y/y), and sewage & waste disposal (+0.3%; +14.2% y/y) gained m/m in December. 

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

260227P.jpg

260227Q.jpg

- Headline +0.3% m/m, first m/m rise since August; -0.4% y/y, 11th consecutive y/y fall.
- Residential private construction +1.5% m/m, led by a 1.8% rebound in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.7% m/m, fifth m/m decline in six months.
- Public construction -0.5% m/m, reflecting drops in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.

U.S. Construction Spending Rebounds in December After Three Straight M/M Declines

260227E.jpg

More countries have reported new results or firmed up their GDP results for 2025Q4. In the EMU, GDP grows by 1.3% year over year in the fourth quarter. The large EMU economies (Big Four) grow by 1% on that horizon, while the rest of the community grows at twice that pace, at 2.1%. U.S. growth on that timeline is 2.2%; Japan’s is 0.2%; and the United Kingdom grows by 0.9%. They are all weak compared to past standards. None of them rank at or above their respective 50th percentile standings on growth rates dating back to 1997.

In Europe, EMU nonmember Denmark’s growth at 3% has an over 50th percentile ranking, at 78.3 percentile mark. Ireland’s growth has a 60.9 percentile standing, while Italy and Portugal have growth rates near their respective 55th percentiles—above their respective medians but not by a lot.

260227.jpg

**The bigger they are, the slower they grow...**
Within the EMU, it is a durable finding that the smaller economies are growing faster than the larger ones. The good news here is that inflation seems to be really much more controlled and near to the target on a relatively broad basis. Headline inflation is broadly close to 2%, but core inflation rates are more stubbornly elevated. For now, the European Central Bank seems content to hold the line on inflation here. That decision is good for growth prospects. This may be because it can see that the community it services has some very different needs. And rather than holding the community’s feet to the fire to get inflation and core inflation to 2%, it has decided to allow some temporary overshooting and a longer glide path to 2%. This has been the U.S. strategy that is now coming under fire. The ECB may have adopted the charts and original targets of the old independent Bundesbank, but EMU-wide policy under the ECB looks very little like Germany policy used to when the Bundesbank results called the shots. This sort of overshoot would not have been tolerated and would not be ‘encouraged to live on’ with the compliant conduct of current policy. But then the ECB has this broader mandate of serving a huge area and with members that are not as inflation-fearing as Germany.

European nations generally have budgetary issues. Germany has been budget-careful. But its preference to pay down debt and stiff the U.S. on its request for Germany to put more money into NATO does not play well in retrospect. It has preserved some fiscal space for itself, and its fiscal house is very much in order…unlike France and nonmember U.K. who both are making policy under fiscal constraints.

For now, GDP growth is cruising along, and the EMU is logging weakish, tolerable, results. The big news so far is that growth has been enough to keep unemployment at an extremely low level. In some sense, the speed of GDP growth does not matter; it is anachronistic at least in the sense that what people think is good or enough draws from past experience, while the unemployment rate is a very here-and-now variable that might be affected by very different circumstances. Going ahead, there is a question of whether AI will be taking job growth away; it is a concern that is more advanced in the U.S. right now than in Europe. But it is still a nagging fear.

Still, we do not hear a lot of complaints about growth rates because the policy filter on GDP growth is employment growth and the unemployment rate. So far, those bells are not ringing out any warnings. So far...

Europe

Weak GDP Growth in Europe and Selected Countries Carries On

Andrew Cates

**The Global Business Cycle**
The latest flash composite PMI readings reinforce the theme of a still-expanding but increasingly uneven global cycle. As the chart shows, activity remained in expansion territory across most major economies in February, with the UK, Japan and Germany all posting solid readings and positive three-month momentum. The United States, by contrast, is positioned to the left of the vertical axis, signalling a modest loss of recent momentum even though the level of activity remains comfortably above the 50 threshold. At the top end, India continues to stand out with both strong levels and firm recent gains, underlining the resilience of its domestic demand cycle. Meanwhile, France sits close to the stagnation line, highlighting ongoing softness within parts of the euro area. For markets, the key takeaway is that global growth has not rolled over — but leadership is broadening and becoming more differentiated across regions.

260226Z1.jpg

**South Korea’s Semiconductor Trade**
One factor helping to sustain global activity may well be the ongoing AI investment cycle, and Korea’s semiconductor exports provide a timely illustration. As the chart shows, shipments in the first 20 days of February have surged to fresh highs, extending the powerful upswing seen over the past year. Given Korea’s central role in the global memory and advanced chip supply chain, this strength is unlikely to be purely cyclical. Instead, it is consistent with continued heavy demand linked to data centres, high-performance computing and broader AI infrastructure build-out. In that sense, while parts of the global economy show signs of cooling, the AI capex cycle appears to be providing an important offset — reinforcing trade flows and helping to keep overall activity on a firmer footing than might otherwise have been expected.

260226Z2.jpg

**US Investment in Data Centres**
The surge in Korea’s semiconductor exports is echoed in the composition of US investment, where AI-related capital spending continues to accelerate. As the chart shows, real private fixed investment in data centres has risen sharply since 2022, significantly outpacing both information processing equipment and overall non-residential business investment. This divergence points to an ongoing, capital-intensive build-out of digital and cloud infrastructure, consistent with strong global demand for computing power. For markets, the key takeaway is that the AI investment cycle remains firmly in expansion mode, helping to underpin activity in both the US and the broader technology supply chain.

260226Z3.jpg

**Germany’s Capex Cycle**
If the US investment story is being powered by AI infrastructure, the latest data suggest Germany may finally be seeing a cyclical turn of its own. As the chart shows, domestic capital goods orders have picked up noticeably in recent months after an extended period of weakness. While the series remains volatile, the recent spikes hint at a tentative revival in investment demand within Europe’s largest manufacturing economy. Part of this improvement may reflect the early effects of easier financial conditions, but there are also signs that increased defence spending and related industrial orders could be beginning to filter through the pipeline. More broadly, the contrast with the US is instructive: whereas America’s capex surge is heavily concentrated in digital and AI infrastructure, Germany’s rebound appears more traditional and policy-driven, potentially marking the early stages of a broader European investment stabilisation.

260226Z4.jpg

**Oil Prices, Policy and Financial Markets**
Shifting focus from investment to markets, the close co-movement between oil prices and short-term Treasury yields remains striking. As the chart highlights, the correlation between WTI and the US 2-year yield has stayed unusually tight, underscoring how energy markets continue to feed directly into macro and policy expectations. Recent weeks have also seen a modest firming in crude, in part reflecting renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the associated risk premium around Middle East supply routes. Oil has hovered near multi-month highs amid rising military and diplomatic strains between Washington and Tehran, even though physical supply has not yet been disrupted. For investors, the key point is that energy-driven inflation risks have not fully faded, meaning oil price volatility could still complicate the timing and extent of policy easing globally.

260226Z5.jpg

**Japan’s 10-year JGB yields and data surprises**
Finally, developments in Japan’s bond market are also worth watching from a global perspective. The chart shows a clear relationship between the three-month change in 10-year JGB yields and the Citi Japan surprise indices, with yields tending to track shifts in the growth and inflation data flow. In recent weeks, the downward drift in JGB yields has been particularly notable. The move appears consistent with a run of softer-than-expected growth and inflation readings, which have tempered near-term tightening expectations. Given Japan’s outsized role in global capital markets and carry dynamics, even modest moves in JGB yields can have broader spillovers. To that extent, the recent pullback may have provided a mild anchoring influence on global bond markets at the margin, even as the broader normalization narrative remains intact.

260226Z6.jpg

Over the past few days, financial markets have been navigating a fresh wave of policy and geopolitical cross-currents, with the US Supreme Court ruling on executive tariff authority adding a new layer of uncertainty to the trade outlook. At the same time, the AI investment boom continues to provide an important cyclical tailwind, even as investors remain alert to valuation risks, while renewed tensions involving Iran have reintroduced an energy risk premium. Against that backdrop, this week’s charts paint a picture of a global economy that is still expanding but becoming more differentiated. Latest flash PMI surveys confirm that global activity remains in growth territory despite some cooling in the US (chart 1). Strong semiconductor exports from Korea (chart 2) and surging US data-centre investment (chart 3) both underscore the continued force of the AI capex cycle, while a strong pickup in German capital goods orders (chart 4) hints at a more traditional, policy-linked investment impulse emerging in Europe. Meanwhile, the tight co-movement between oil prices and US front-end yields highlights (chart 5) the ongoing macro sensitivity to energy markets, and the recent downward drift in Japanese government bond yields — alongside softer data surprises — suggests that global bond markets may be receiving at least a modest anchoring impulse from Japan (chart 6).

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/3OCHFZkR42CAFQ5HGC51Wd?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: The AI Undercurrent

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

260226A4.jpg

260226B4.jpg

from 208,000 in the week ending February 14, revised from 206,000. The four-week average edged up 750 to 220,250 in the February 21 week from 219,500 in the prior week, revised from 219,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for 216,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—declined by 31,000 to 1.833 million in the week ending February 14, from 1.864 million in the week ending February 7, revised from 1.869 million. The four-week moving average stood at 1.847 million, an increase from the previous week’s average of 1.844 million, revised from 1.845 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of February 14, unchanged from the previous eleven weeks.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending February 7, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (3.05%), New Jersey (2.90%), Massachusetts (2.74%), Washington (2.52%), Minnesota (2.46%), California (2.20%), Montana (2.12%), Michigan (2.03%) and Oregon (2.02%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.31%), Louisiana (0.38%), North Carolina (0.43%), Mississippi (0.42%), Alabama (0.44%), and Arkansas (0.46%). Rates in other notable states include Illinois (2.27%), New York (2.24%), Pennsylvania (2.01%), and Texas (1.12%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

260226C4.jpg

260226D4.jpg

- New claims rose by 4,000 to 212,000.
- Continuing claims declined by 31,000 to 1.833 million.
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% for the 12th consecutive week.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Rose in Latest Week

Sandy Batten

large_260305N5.jpg

medium_260305N5.jpg

small_260305N5.jpg

thumbnail_260305N5.jpg

260305N5.jpg

large_260305O5.jpg

medium_260305O5.jpg

small_260305O5.jpg

thumbnail_260305O5.jpg

260305O5.jpg

Nonfarm business productivity (output per hour) continued its robust rise in Q4, increasing 2.8% q/q SAAR following an upwardly revised 5.2% quarterly jump in Q3 (previously 4.9%). A quarterly gain of 1.9% was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Compared to a year ago, productivity rose 2.8% in Q3, up from an upwardly revised 2.4% in Q3 (previously 1.9%). The January employment report contained meaningful downward revisions to employment (and hours) in 2024 and 2025. However, there were no significant revisions to output, meaning that productivity growth was generally revised higher. Since productivity growth began to accelerate at the beginning of 2023, it has grown at a well above trend 2.8% annual rate. Strong productivity is a key factor for boosting real incomes and restraining inflation pressures.

Nonfarm business output increased 2.6% q/q in Q4 on top of unrevised gains of 5.4% q/q in Q3 and 5.2% quarterly in Q2 while hours worked edged down 0.2% q/q in Q4, the first quarterly decline since Q4 2023, versus a 0.2% quarterly increase in Q3 (previously 0.5% q/q). Compensation growth picked up to 5.7% q/q in Q4 from an upwardly revised 3.3% in Q3 (previously 2.9% q/q) in Q3. Compared to a year ago, compensation growth picked up to 4.1% in Q4 from 3.8% in Q3. Accordingly, with the slowdown in productivity and pickup in compensation, unit labor costs increased 2.8% q/q after quarterly decreases of 1.8% and 2.9% in Q3 and Q2, respectively. Compared to a year ago, unit labor cost growth was unchanged at 1.3%, the smallest annual gain since Q3 2023.

Factory output fell 2.2% q/q SAAR in Q4, its first quarterly decline in a year, following a slightly downwardly revised 2.9% in Q3 (previously 3.0%). Hours worked fell 0.3% in Q4, the sixth consecutive quarterly decline, following a 0.6% q/q decline in Q3. Consequently, factory productivity slumped 1.9% q/q, its first quarterly decline since Q3 2024, after having posted solid gains of 3.6% in Q3, 3.2% in Q2 and 4.6% in Q1. Factory compensation growth picked up to 6.4% q/q on top of a 4.8% quarterly jump in Q3. The combination of a decline in productivity and a meaningful rise in compensation led to an 8.3% quarterly surge in manufacturing unit labor costs in Q4, the largest quarterly increase since Q3 2022.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

large_260305P5.jpg

medium_260305P5.jpg

small_260305P5.jpg

thumbnail_260305P5.jpg

260305P5.jpg

large_260305Q5.jpg

medium_260305Q5.jpg

small_260305Q5.jpg

thumbnail_260305Q5.jpg

260305Q5.jpg

- Nonfarm business output per hour rose 2.8% q/q SAAR in Q4 on top of an upward revision to Q3.
- Compensation jumped 5.7% q/q in Q4 resulting in a 2.8% quarterly increase in unit labor costs.

U.S. Productivity Increases More than Expected in Q4

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

#### Academic Data Scope
National Account (GDP), Production, Labour Market, Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Policy & International Trade. High-frequency data covering financial variables and drivers of the real economy, and key ESG environmental indicators. Plus, time series from the IMF on 190+ countries to aid cross comparison.

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

U.S. Productivity Increases More than Expected in Q4

Recent Commentaries

Export and Import Prices: Upward Pressure Points in January

Charts of the Week: Shockwaves from the Gulf

ISM Services: Favorable News from Every Perspective

U.S. ADP Private Employment Growth Accelerates in February, Exceeding Expectations

S&P Composite PMIs Show Recovery Progresses

Featured Data Additions, March 4, 2026

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints