Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Sharp drop in China demand for oil helping to limit impact of Middle East conflict on the price

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% m/m to $763.6 billion in July after increases of 0.2% in June (unrevised) and 0.9% in May (+1.0% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed, pointing to a soft start to Q3 2026. A 0.2% m/m July increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The decline interrupted a streak of five straight m/m gains dating back to February. The year-on-year growth rate decelerated to 5.0% in July, the lowest since March, from 6.8% in June (4.1% in July 2025); it remained far below a high of 17.1% in February 2022 and a record-high 51.8% in April 2021.

Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales unexpectedly decreased 0.3% (+5.8% y/y) in July following a 0.2% decline in June and five consecutive m/m gains. A 0.2% m/m July increase had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts fell 1.8% (+1.9% y/y), the first m/m fall since April, reversing a 2.4% June rise; this compared to a 1.0% decline (-1.3% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales after a 2.6% June advance.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, fell 0.4% (+4.6% y/y) in July after a 0.4% increase in June, snapping a string of gains since January. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials slid 0.3% (+4.7% y/y), the first m/m slide since December, following a 0.4% June increase.

Sales by category showed mixed performance in July. To the downside, nonstore retail sales decreased 2.2% (+7.7% y/y) in July, the biggest m/m decline among major categories, after a 0.9% rise in June and a streak of gains dating back to January. Gasoline station sales fell 0.9% (+16.2% y/y) following a 5.8% June drop and four consecutive m/m increases. Electronics & appliance store sales, down for the second time in three months, declined 0.5% (+4.7% y/y) in July after holding steady in June. Meanwhile, sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales were virtually unchanged m/m (+10.1% y/y) after five straight m/m rises.

To the upside, clothing & accessory store sales rebounded 1.9% (5.0% y/y) in July following a 0.7% decline in June. Miscellaneous store sales grew 0.5% (10.7% y/y), the smallest of three successive m/m increases, after a 2.1% June gain. Building materials & garden equipment store sales climbed 0.3% (6.7% y/y), the ninth straight m/m rise, on top of a 1.2% June increase. Furniture & home furnishing store sales grew 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) after a 0.1% June easing. General merchandise store sales rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y) in July after a 0.2% increase in June; within this category, department store sales edged up 0.1% (2.5% y/y) following a flat June reading.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales recovered 0.7% (1.1% y/y) in July, up for the second time in three months, after a 0.4% decline in June. Food & beverage store sales were essentially unchanged m/m (+0.9% y/y) following a 0.1% June dip and three consecutive m/m rises.

Consumers appeared to dine out more frequently in July despite still-high inflation (July CPI +0.1% m/m, +3.4% y/y; core CPI +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y). Restaurant & drinking place sales rose 0.5% (5.0% y/y) in July, the fifth m/m gain in six months, after an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in June (+0.1% initially).

Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total retail sales -0.6% (+5.0% y/y) in July vs. +0.2% (+6.8% y/y) in June.
- Ex-auto sales -0.3% (+5.8% y/y), second successive m/m decline; auto sales -1.8% (+1.9% y/y), first drop since Apr.
- Ex-gas sales -0.6% (+4.2% y/y) and ex-auto & gas sales -0.2% (+4.8% y/y); both up m/m from Jan. to June.
- Retail control group -0.4% (+4.6% y/y) after six consecutive m/m increases.
- Declines m/m: nonstore sales (-2.2%), gasoline stations (-0.9%), electronics stores (-0.5%).
- Gains m/m: clothing stores (+1.9%), health & personal care stores (+0.7%), misc. stores (+0.5%), restaurants (+0.5%).

U.S. Retail Sales Disappoint in July Following Five Straight M/M Gains

Andrew Cates

**AI-related global growth revisions**
The most striking feature of this month's forecasting round is not the level of growth but the pattern of the revisions. Over the past six months Blue Chip forecasters have raised their 2026 growth projections for the economies most exposed to the artificial-intelligence investment cycle and the trade associated with it — Taiwan and South Korea in particular — while lowering them for parts of the West, including Australia, Canada and the euro area. A revision in a single economy reflects local conditions; the same revision across several at once reflects something broader: a cycle tilting towards the producers of AI-related capital goods and away from those more dependent on consumer demand — and on oil (chart 1).

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**Investment-led resilience in the United States**
In the United States, where the headline growth forecast has been trimmed only marginally, the composition of growth has become more investment-led. Business capital spending — directed towards data centres, electrification and the reshoring of supply chains — has been revised progressively higher through the year, even as the overall growth projection has held broadly stable (chart 2). Whether this proves durable will depend on whether the spending raises the economy’s productive capacity or largely defends existing positions; for the present it remains a principal support for the expansion.

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**Inflation and the supply side**
That expansion has so far proceeded without a corresponding rise in inflation. Price data have continued to come in below expectations even as measures of supply-chain pressure have turned higher — a divergence that in previous cycles tended not to persist (chart 3). The most plausible interpretation is that firms are for now absorbing higher input and transport costs within their margins rather than passing them on. It is a benign configuration, and part of the reason markets have been able to look through the geopolitical backdrop, though possibly not a durable one: the gap between cost pressure and consumer prices is precisely what a further energy shock would be likely to close.

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**The role of Chinese demand**
Still, a further energy shock has so far been avoided, and the explanation lies less in Middle Eastern supply than in Chinese demand. Renewed conflict might in other circumstances have pushed crude prices sharply higher; instead, subdued activity in China has reduced its crude imports by several million barrels a day relative to late 2025, limiting the effect of any disruption to supply (chart 4). The composition of those imports has also shifted, with discounted Russian and sanctioned Iranian volumes displacing Gulf supplies, so that the Gulf’s share has fallen even as total imports have declined.

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**Global imbalances and the yen**
The re-widening of global current-account imbalances has acquired fresh significance against the backdrop of Japan’s recent intervention in the currency market. China’s external surplus has returned to near-record levels while the United States’ deficit has widened towards one, leaving the gap between the world’s largest surplus and deficit economies at its widest in more than a decade (chart 5). Large external surpluses are held as large stocks of foreign assets, and the coordinated action to support the yen — financed in part from Japan’s substantial reserves, much of which are invested in US Treasuries — is a reminder that the management of those holdings now carries direct implications for global bond markets. That the surpluses of the major creditors are no longer recycled into Western government debt as readily as in the past is also possibly one reason for why US long-term yields have been elevated.

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**The longer-run energy transition**
A final chart lengthens the horizon well beyond the week. Across thirty-one countries and a quarter of a century, the share of electricity generated by wind and solar has risen from a negligible level at the turn of the century to around a sixth of the world’s total today, and considerably more in the leading economies (chart 6). The progression is barely perceptible from one month to the next but unmistakable over longer periods — a reminder that the more consequential shifts in the global economy tend to occur gradually, and to continue irrespective of the immediate news.

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Global markets kept a composed tone this week even as the backdrop grew more unsettled. Renewed fighting in the Middle East lifted oil prices but left equities largely unmoved, the earlier decline in semiconductor shares having faded as earnings held up; long-term interest rates continued to grind higher, with the increase concentrated in real yields rather than inflation expectations; and the major central banks, having diverged over the course of the year, are now expected to move in different directions. Inflation, for its part, remained subdued. The charts that follow take up these themes. The first two draw on this month’s forecasting round: growth expectations for 2026 have been revised up across the AI-exposed economies of Asia and trimmed across much of the West, pointing to a global cycle growing at two speeds (chart 1), while in the United States the resilience of the expansion increasingly reflects business investment rather than household spending (chart 2). The next two concern the benign inflation backdrop: price data have continued to undershoot forecasts even as supply-chain pressures have edged higher (chart 3), and the oil market has remained well supplied in part because Chinese import demand has fallen sharply (chart 4). The final two look beyond the cycle: the current-account imbalance between the United States and China has widened close to record levels, a theme given fresh salience by Japan’s recent currency intervention (chart 5), while the longer-run shift towards wind and solar power has continued largely irrespective of the week’s events (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: Beneath the Calm

Michael J. Moran

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The Producer Price Index fell for the second consecutive month in July, but the latest change was almost imperceptible (-0.03%), and the drop in June was modest (-0.1%). The dips helped to slow the rate of inflation, but the year-over-year change remained elevated at 4.7%, up from a rate of approximately 3.0% around the turn of the year.

Lower energy prices account for most of the recent softness in the PPI, dropping 3.1% in July after a fall of 6.5% in June. However, restraint from the energy sector could well be short lived, as prices of most grades of gasoline in early August were above averages in July. Food prices also have eased in the past two months, dropping 0.5% in July and 0.9% in June.

The declines in food and energy prices are certainly welcome, but they do not signal the end of inflation as an issue, as underlying price pressure remained evident in the July PPI. The Bureau of Labor Statistics monitors producer prices excluding food, energy, and trade services to assess the underlying rate of inflation. This measure rose noticeably in the early months of the year, pulling the year-over-year inflation rate to 5.0% in May. It has improved slightly in the past two months, but it remained elevated at 4.7%.

The upward pressure on this “core” measure in the early months of the year was evident in both goods and services. The prices of goods excluding energy rose at an average rate of 0.5% in the first five months of the year. Goods prices ex-energy have barely changed in the  past two months, but the year-over-year change still totaled 3.8%. Prices of services rose at an average rate of 0.6% in the first four months of the year before easing to an average rate of only 0.1% in the past three months, but the year-over-year change remained brisk at 3.9%.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Both the food and energy components have declined in the past two months.
- Other items have decelerated recently, but the rate of inflation remained uncomfortably high.

July PPI: Restrained by Volatile Items; Underlying Inflation Remained Rapid

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 9,000 to 209,000 in the week ending August 8 from 200,000 in the week ending August 1, revised from 199,000. The four-week average was 199,000 in the August 8 week, unchanged from the prior week. Claims have been largely range-bound for most of the year between 200,000 and 220,000. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 203,000 claims to have been filed. 

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”— declined by 22,000 to 1. 777 million in the week of August 1 from 1.799 million in the week of July 25, revised from 1.801 million. The four-week moving average declined to 1.786 million in the August 1 week, from 1.791 million in the July 25 week. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2% in the week of July 25. 

The insured unemployment rate varies greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending July 25, the highest unemployment rates were in Oregon (2.03%), Minnesota (2.05%), Massachusetts (2.15%), Rhode Island (2.26%), New Jersey (2.61%), and Puerto Rico (2.65%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.29%), Florida (0.37%), North Carolina (0.41%), Alabama (0.42%), Louisiana (0.43%), and Arkansas (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.94%), New York (1.71%), Pennsylvania (1.68%), Illinois (1.57%), and Texas (1.10%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.


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- New claims rose by 9,000 to 209,000 in the week of August 8.
- Continuing claims declined by 22,000 to 1.777 million in the week ending August 1.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of August 1.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Edged Up in the Week of August 8

Robert Brusca

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Industrial production in the euro area was flat in June, interrupting a four-month string of increases that had been in place. Despite the flatness and the decline in manufacturing output in the month, trends still show that output is on an expanding path. Consumer goods output was particularly strong in June, up 2.7% month-to-month, led by a 3% increase in nondurable goods output. However, intermediate goods output fell by 0.8%, and capital goods output fell by 1.4%. Growth is a matter for the weighting-game more than a statement about breadth.

The sequential calculations that give us a look at trend show that output is accelerating overall, barely growing at a 0.1% pace over 12 months, edging up to a 0.6% annual rate over six months, and culminating at a 2.5% annual rate over three months. Manufacturing output similarly has a slow start but builds a head of steam to grow at a 2% pace over three months. Consumer goods output ramps up very sharply. Although it declines by 0.8% over 12 months, over three months it is up at a 38.3% annual rate, led by strong expansion in consumer nondurables with output surging at a 43.9% annual rate over three months. However, consumer durable goods are still lagging, with output falling by 2.7% over 12 months, although it is rebounding at a 1.8% annual rate over three months.

The story across countries is varied with many European economies showing output declines in June. Of the 14 early-reporting European economies in June, nine showed declines in output in the month. For individual European economies, Germany and Spain are on accelerating paths, while Italy, Luxembourg, and Greece are posting decelerating output patterns.

In the quarter to date, output is rising for most industrial categories across the monetary union. The exception is consumer durables, the only category showing a decline on a quarterly basis with the second-quarter results now in. Manufacturing output is up at a 4.6% annual rate in the quarter. Consumer goods output is up to a 12.3% annual rate. Intermediate goods output is up at a 4.2% annual rate, and capital goods output is advancing at a 3.4% annual rate. Of the 14 European countries summarized in the table, Austria, Malta, Greece, and Portugal are the only countries showing quarter-to-date declines in the second quarter.

For the most part, these readings are upbeat, showing acceleration in most of the overall European manufacturing categories. However, when we evaluate annual growth rates compared to historic norms, all of the industrial categories for the monetary union are below their historic medians except for intermediate goods output. Across the European economies reporting in this table, only five have output speeds taking them above their historic medians. Those are Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Greece. All the rest of the reporters are below the 50% mark. The median ranking across the monetary union economies is at its 44.5 percentile.

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Manufacturing in the monetary union hits a bit of a flat spot in June; however, it still continues to carry momentum from its earlier months, especially over three months. Obviously, conditions in the Middle East and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz are overhanging the industrial sector, and they will be important factors in how the sector performs from here through the rest of the year. As of June, conditions are carrying momentum, but that could change. The overview for Europe is an industrial sector that is expanding, mostly accelerating with more varied results across countries. Individual members show considerable variance in their performance. Compared to historic norms, year-over-year growth rates are mostly weaker than their median pace has been.

Europe

EMU IP Flat to Lower on the Month

Sandy Batten

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CPI increased 0.1% m/m (3.4% y/y) following a 0.4% monthly decline in June. The core index (excluding food and energy prices) rose 0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y) after having been unchanged in June. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% monthly gain for the headline index and a 0.2% monthly increase for the core index. The 3-month rate for the headline index fell to 0.5% annualized in July from 2.8% in June while the 3-month rate for the core index slipped to 1.6% from 2.3% in June.

Combined with the weaker than expected employment report released last week, today’s in line with expectations inflation figures were generally interpreted as assuaging some of Fed’s inflation concerns. However, there is still another CPI report and another employment report before the next FOMC meeting in the middle of September.

Energy prices continued to play a major role in July. Seasonally adjusted energy prices fell 1.5% m/m in July on top of a 5.7% monthly decline in June. Prices of energy commodities declined 2.9% m/m in July with the seasonally adjusted price of gasoline also falling 2.9% m/m while prices of energy services rose 0.3% m/m. Prices of goods other than energy increased 0.2% m/m (0.8% y/y) after 0.1% monthly declines in both May and June. Prices of services excluding energy also increased 0.2% m/m (3.0% y/y) after having been unchanged in June. Food prices edged up 0.1% m/m (3.0% y/y) in July, the smallest monthly increase in four months, down from 0.2% m/m in June.

There was a whole laundry list of price declines in June that held down the core index that many analysts felt were unsustainable. Consequently, how much these prices rebounded in July was thought to be key to the overall July outcome. Indeed, most of the declines highlighted in June were reversed in July but only modestly. The price of cell phone service plunged 3.3% m/m in June but rose 0.6% m/m in July. Apparel prices fell 0.6% m/m in June but edged up 0.1% m/m in July. Prices of medical care services slipped 0.1% m/m in June but rose 0.6% m/m in July. Used vehicle prices, which declined 0.2% m/m in June, rebounded 0.4% m/m in July. In contrast, hotel prices dropped 2.8% m/m in June and declined 3.3% m/m in July. Prices of vehicle insurance decreased 2.0% m/m in June and added a 0.3% m/m decline in July.

The second consecutive outsized decline in hotel prices held down the rise in shelter costs in July, which increased just 0.1% m/m (3.2% y/y), the same monthly gain as in June. Still, this modest rise in shelter costs accounted for 2/3 of the monthly increase in the overall CPI. However, rent and owners’ equivalent rent were not as tame as overall shelter costs. Rent of primary residence increased 0.3% m/m (2.9% y/y) following a 0.1% monthly increase in June. Owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.3% m/m (3.2% y/y) versus a 0.2% monthly gain in June.

CPI services prices less energy services and the two rent measures is a relatively new core measure that is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve. It increased 0.2% m/m in July after having fallen 0.2% m/m in June with the y/y rate declining to 2.8% from 3.1% in June. Somewhat encouraging, the July y/y reading is almost at the top of the range in which this measure fluctuated prior to the pandemic.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- The headline CPI increased 0.1% m/m in July with the core index rising 0.2% m/m, both in line with expectations.
- Y/Y rates for each index edged down 0.1%-point.
- Seasonally adjusted energy prices fell for the second consecutive month.
- Shelter prices rose only 0.1% m/m, but this was mostly due to a 3.3% m/m decline in hotel prices.

U.S. CPI in Line with Expectations in July

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Mortgage applications rose 3.6% w/w (-11.6% y/y) in the week ending August 7 after declining by 2.9% w/w (-5.3% y/y) in the week ending July 31, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house rose 2.5% (-1.4% y/y) in the latest week following a decline of 3.6% w/w (-2.5% y/y) in the prior week.  Applications for loan refinancing rose 5.0% w/w (-22.2% y/y) in the August 7 week after a decline of 1.9% w/w (-8.8% y/y) in the July 31 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged down 3bps to 6.96% in the week ending August 7 from 6.99% in the week ending July 31, still remaining at levels not seen since July/August 2025. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages inched up 1bp to 6.33% in the August 7 week from 6.32% in the July 31 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate edged down 4ps to 6.83% in the latest week from 6.87% in the July 31 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM declined by 10bps to 6.30% in the August 7 week from 6.40% in the July 31 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 40.7% of total applications in the week of August 7 from 39.9% in the week ending July 31. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity stayed unchanged at 7.9% in the latest week from the July 31 week.

The average size of a mortgage edged down 0.7% w/w (-4.9% y/y) to $379,300 in the week ending August 7 after declining 0.8% w/w (+0.1% y/y) to $381,800 in the week ending July 31. The average size of a purchase loan inched down 0.2% w/w (+3.4% y/y) to $441,300 in the August 7 week after declining 0.7% w/w (+2.3% y/y) to $442,100 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 0.7% w/w (-21.1% y/y) in the August 7 week to $289,200 following a slight decline of 0.2% w/w (-6.0% y/y) to $291,100 in the July 31 week. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing rose in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans edged down 3bps to 6.96%, still at levels not seen since July/August 2025.
- Average loan size edged down.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose in the August 7 Week

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Inflation in Italy rose 0.1% in July after being flat in June and rising 0.3% in May. The core HICP was not quite so lucky, rising 0.3% in July after declining 0.2% in June and rising 0.4% in May. The domestic inflation data from Italy show the headline rising 0.1% in July, flat in June, and rising 0.4% in May. The Italian core on its domestic measure rose 0.3% in July, was flat in June, and rose 0.3% in May.

HICP inflation has gotten unruly in Italy, rising 2.9% over 12 months, accelerating to a 5.2% annual rate over six months but then rising by only 1.6% at an annual rate over three months. Core inflation remains much better behaved but has seen some increasing pressure, rising 1.5% over 12 months, posting a 1.4% annual rate over six months, and rising at a 2% annual rate over three months.

The domestic measures of inflation show the headline is quite similar to the HICP headline, rising 2.9% over 12 months, accelerating to a 5.7% annual rate over six months, and posting a 2% annual rate over three months. The Italian core rate, however, accelerates steadily from 1.6% over 12 months to 2.2% annualized over six months and to 2.4% annualized over three months. It's not a terrible ramping up, but it is an acceleration; it takes the Italian core to a level above what the ECB projects as its target for the euro area as a whole.

Inflation diffusion in Italy over three months, six months, and 12 months is relatively well behaved at 53.8% over 12 months and over six months. There's a modest tendency to have more acceleration than deceleration; however, over three months the diffusion measure falls to 46.2%, indicating net deceleration. The net deceleration over three months is reassuring, with moderate three-month inflation rates having been posted on the various metrics cited above. However, even the slight acceleration tendencies are a little more disturbing, with the high headline inflation posted over six months and uncomfortably high near a 3% pace over 12 months.

On a quarter-to-date basis, inflation in the third quarter is off to a slow start, at 1.2% for the HICP and 1.4% for the domestic measure. Both the HICP and the domestic measures show core inflation higher at 1.8% for the HICP and at a 2.4% annual rate for the domestic metric.

The inflation problem in Italy isn't simply something that comes because of oil. Year-over-year, the headline for the HICP and the domestic measure are both under 2% in the quarter to date (QTD). But both measures are running at or above 2% in most of the sequential developments of inflation from 12 months to six months to three months. Core inflation is showing pressure for both the HICP and domestic measures sequentially as well as QTD. The Italian inflation report for July by itself is not so good as the monthly headline is well-behaved, but the cores are uncomfortable in both the HICP and domestic measures. Inflation clearly is not dead. It remains something to keep an eye on even in Italy where inflation trends had been better behaved.

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Italy

Italian Inflation Gets Prickly

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Industrial production (IP) rose a slightly less-than-expected 0.2% m/m in July, the third monthly rise in four months, following an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in June (+0.1% initially) and no change in May (+0.1% previously), according to data from the Federal Reserve Board. A 0.3% m/m July increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate held at 1.1% in July and June (1.4% in July 2025). The July IP index at 103.0 was 3.7% above a low of 99.3 in November 2024 and 3.8% above a low of 99.2 in January 2024.

By **industry groups**, manufacturing production grew 0.2% (1.2% y/y) in July, the fifth m/m gain in six months, after an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in June (0.0% initially) and a flat reading in May (+0.1% previously). Durable goods production advanced 0.7% (3.9% y/y) in July, the seventh consecutive m/m rise, adding to a 0.2% increase in June. Within durables, almost all categories rose m/m in July, led by a 2.4% rebound (0.6% y/y) in wood products, followed by rises of 1.9% (9.9% y/y) in computer & electronic products, 1.4% (4.5% y/y) in aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, 1.4% (1.6% y/y) in primary metals, 1.3% (6.2% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 1.2% (2.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.8% (4.4% y/y) in machinery, 0.7% (-5.0% y/y) in furniture & related products, and 0.4% (2.8% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods. Notably, aircraft & parts production climbed 1.6% (8.2% y/y), the sixth successive m/m rise, after a 1.0% June increase. To the downside, durable goods categories for motor vehicles & parts (-2.1%; +2.1% y/y) and nonmetallic mineral products (-0.2%; +3.8% y/y) posted m/m decreases in July.

Nondurable goods production fell 0.4% (-1.6% y/y) in July, the second m/m fall in three months, following a 0.5% increase in June. The July output decline was led by a 2.5% drop (-2.5% y/y) in printing & related support activities, followed by decreases of 1.9% (+0.5% y/y) in apparel & leather goods, 0.7% (-1.6% y/y) in food, beverages & tobacco, 0.7% (-3.5% y/y) in paper, and 0.2% (-2.9% y/y) in chemicals. To the upside, the following nondurable goods categories rose m/m in July, including output rises of 0.8% (-0.1% y/y) in textiles & product mills, 0.2% (0.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, and 0.2% (2.2% y/y) in plastics & rubber products.

Utilities output rose 0.5% (0.7% y/y), the fourth consecutive m/m gain and the fifth in six months, following a 0.1% uptick in June (+0.4% initially), reflecting a 0.5% increase (1.3% y/y) in electric utilities output and a 0.4% rebound (-3.0% y/y) in natural gas utilities output. Mining activity grew 0.2% (1.0% y/y), the third m/m rise in four months, after a 0.3% June increase (+0.4% initially).

By **market groups**, business equipment output rose 0.8% (6.6% y/y), the eighth straight m/m rise, on top of a 0.4% increase in June. Construction supplies production advanced 0.8% (2.4% y/y), the fourth m/m gain in five months, after a 0.1% June uptick. Materials production increased 0.3% (1.0% y/y), up for the third time in four months, after a 0.2% June rise. In contrast, consumer goods output fell 0.4% (-1.8% y/y) in July after a 0.3% rebound in June, reflecting declines of 1.4% (-1.6% y/y) in durable consumer goods and 0.1% (-1.8% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods.

In **special classifications**, factory output of selected high-tech industries strengthened 1.9% (11.8% y/y) in July after a 1.6% increase in June, marking the fourth successive m/m gain and the ninth in 10 months. Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech industries edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y) in July after a 0.3% rise in June, and manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts rose 0.3% (0.7% y/y) after a 0.2% increase; both registered the fifth m/m gain in six months.

Capacity utilization inched up to 76.3% in July, the highest since July 2025, from an upwardly revised 76.2% in June (76.1% initially). The result matched the forecast by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The July reading was 3.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization edged up to 76.0% in July, the highest since June 2024, from an upwardly revised 75.9% in June (75.7% previously). The July rate was 2.2 percentage points below its long-run average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- July IP +0.2% (+1.1% y/y), third m/m increase in four months.
- Manufacturing +0.2% (+1.2% y/y), w/ durables +0.7% and nondurables -0.4%.
- Selected high-tech +1.9%, ninth gain in 10 mths.; motor vehicles -2.1%, first m/m drop since March.
- Utilities +0.5% (+0.7% y/y), fourth straight m/m rise, led by a 0.5% gain in electric utilities output.
- Mining +0.2% (+1.0% y/y), up for the third time in four mths.
- Key categories in market groups mostly increase.
- Capacity utilization up to 76.3%, a one-year high; mfg. capacity utilization up to 76.0%, highest since June ’24.

U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output Up in July, Extending Growth Trend

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