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[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Sharp drop in China demand for oil helping to limit impact of Middle East conflict on the price

Winnie Tapasanun

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Industrial production (IP) rose a slightly less-than-expected 0.2% m/m in July, the third monthly rise in four months, following an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in June (+0.1% initially) and no change in May (+0.1% previously), according to data from the Federal Reserve Board. A 0.3% m/m July increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate held at 1.1% in July and June (1.4% in July 2025). The July IP index at 103.0 was 3.7% above a low of 99.3 in November 2024 and 3.8% above a low of 99.2 in January 2024.

By **industry groups**, manufacturing production grew 0.2% (1.2% y/y) in July, the fifth m/m gain in six months, after an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in June (0.0% initially) and a flat reading in May (+0.1% previously). Durable goods production advanced 0.7% (3.9% y/y) in July, the seventh consecutive m/m rise, adding to a 0.2% increase in June. Within durables, almost all categories rose m/m in July, led by a 2.4% rebound (0.6% y/y) in wood products, followed by rises of 1.9% (9.9% y/y) in computer & electronic products, 1.4% (4.5% y/y) in aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, 1.4% (1.6% y/y) in primary metals, 1.3% (6.2% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 1.2% (2.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.8% (4.4% y/y) in machinery, 0.7% (-5.0% y/y) in furniture & related products, and 0.4% (2.8% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods. Notably, aircraft & parts production climbed 1.6% (8.2% y/y), the sixth successive m/m rise, after a 1.0% June increase. To the downside, durable goods categories for motor vehicles & parts (-2.1%; +2.1% y/y) and nonmetallic mineral products (-0.2%; +3.8% y/y) posted m/m decreases in July.

Nondurable goods production fell 0.4% (-1.6% y/y) in July, the second m/m fall in three months, following a 0.5% increase in June. The July output decline was led by a 2.5% drop (-2.5% y/y) in printing & related support activities, followed by decreases of 1.9% (+0.5% y/y) in apparel & leather goods, 0.7% (-1.6% y/y) in food, beverages & tobacco, 0.7% (-3.5% y/y) in paper, and 0.2% (-2.9% y/y) in chemicals. To the upside, the following nondurable goods categories rose m/m in July, including output rises of 0.8% (-0.1% y/y) in textiles & product mills, 0.2% (0.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, and 0.2% (2.2% y/y) in plastics & rubber products.

Utilities output rose 0.5% (0.7% y/y), the fourth consecutive m/m gain and the fifth in six months, following a 0.1% uptick in June (+0.4% initially), reflecting a 0.5% increase (1.3% y/y) in electric utilities output and a 0.4% rebound (-3.0% y/y) in natural gas utilities output. Mining activity grew 0.2% (1.0% y/y), the third m/m rise in four months, after a 0.3% June increase (+0.4% initially).

By **market groups**, business equipment output rose 0.8% (6.6% y/y), the eighth straight m/m rise, on top of a 0.4% increase in June. Construction supplies production advanced 0.8% (2.4% y/y), the fourth m/m gain in five months, after a 0.1% June uptick. Materials production increased 0.3% (1.0% y/y), up for the third time in four months, after a 0.2% June rise. In contrast, consumer goods output fell 0.4% (-1.8% y/y) in July after a 0.3% rebound in June, reflecting declines of 1.4% (-1.6% y/y) in durable consumer goods and 0.1% (-1.8% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods.

In **special classifications**, factory output of selected high-tech industries strengthened 1.9% (11.8% y/y) in July after a 1.6% increase in June, marking the fourth successive m/m gain and the ninth in 10 months. Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech industries edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y) in July after a 0.3% rise in June, and manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts rose 0.3% (0.7% y/y) after a 0.2% increase; both registered the fifth m/m gain in six months.

Capacity utilization inched up to 76.3% in July, the highest since July 2025, from an upwardly revised 76.2% in June (76.1% initially). The result matched the forecast by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The July reading was 3.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization edged up to 76.0% in July, the highest since June 2024, from an upwardly revised 75.9% in June (75.7% previously). The July rate was 2.2 percentage points below its long-run average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- July IP +0.2% (+1.1% y/y), third m/m increase in four months.
- Manufacturing +0.2% (+1.2% y/y), w/ durables +0.7% and nondurables -0.4%.
- Selected high-tech +1.9%, ninth gain in 10 mths.; motor vehicles -2.1%, first m/m drop since March.
- Utilities +0.5% (+0.7% y/y), fourth straight m/m rise, led by a 0.5% gain in electric utilities output.
- Mining +0.2% (+1.0% y/y), up for the third time in four mths.
- Key categories in market groups mostly increase.
- Capacity utilization up to 76.3%, a one-year high; mfg. capacity utilization up to 76.0%, highest since June ’24.

U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output Up in July, Extending Growth Trend

Michael J. Moran

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Import prices fell 0.4% in July, led by a drop of 3.2% in industrial supplies and materials, which, in turn, was heavily influenced by prices of petroleum products. July marked the second consecutive decline in the industrial supply category (off 1.4% in June), but these changes followed pronounced increases in the preceding three months. Prices of industrial supplies were still noticeably higher than readings before the start of the conflict with Iran (up 15.7% yr/yr).

Excluding petroleum products, import prices rose 0.3%, with a jump of 0.9% in the prices of capital goods standing out. Prices of imported capital goods have climbed steadily throughout the year, with the year-over-year increase totaling 6.6%. The pressure was no doubt led by tech investment.

Other categories of import prices were generally contained. Prices of imported food jumped 0.9% in July, but they had declined in the prior two months and were well contained in preceding months. The year-over-year change in the prices of imported food totaled only 0.2%. Motor vehicles also have been restrained in the past year. They rose 0.2% in July, but softness in prior months left a year-over-year change of -0.1%. Prices of imported consumer goods were unchanged in July, and they were well behaved in most prior months. However, the latest report brought an upward revision of 1.1 percentage points in April, which was followed by an increase of 0.4% in May. The consumer goods category rose 2.3% in the past 12 months.

Some observers might be seeking clues to the effects of tariffs on import prices. The upward revision to consumer goods prices in April might stir thoughts of a tariff effect. However, prices in this report are based on invoices before the imposition of tariffs. If a foreign business was absorbing the effect of a tariff, that would be reflected in a lower price or a smaller increase than would have occurred otherwise. Such unpacking is difficult with these figures.

On the export side, prices fell 1.3%, with a drop of 4.0% in the industrial supplies category generating all of the decline. The industrial supply category also fell in June (off 2.0%), but was up 15.7% in the past year. Capital goods prices, like those on the import side, have been under upward pressure, although the degree of pressure has been less intense. Prices rose 0.5% in July and were up 3.6% in the past year. Prices of exported food have moved erratically, but they are trending noticeably higher on balance. An increase of 1.0% in July, along with spikes in other recent months, has left a year-over-year increase of 5.7% in food exports. Prices of motor vehicles jumped 0.7% in July, but they have been subdued in many recent months, resulting in a year-over-year advance of 2.3%. Prices of exported consumer goods rose 3.5% in the past year, but most of the increase occurred in late 2025 and early this year; this category has been quiet in recent months (averaging increases of 0.1% in the past three months).

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- The retreat in the price of crude oil pushed both import and export prices lower.
- Prices of capital goods are under upward pressure on both sides of the trade ledger.

Import and Export Prices in July: Petroleum-Led Restraint

Sandy Batten

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Weighed down by further rises in longer-term interest rates and elevated inventories, housing construction fell markedly in July, declining a larger-than-expected 12.4% m/m (-13.5% y/y) to 1.239 million units at an annual rate following a surprising 19.7% monthly surge in June. This is the second lowest level of starts since the economy was shut down during the COVID pandemic in 2020. The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 5.4% m/m decline in July. Residential investment has been a persistent drag on real GDP growth recently but surprisingly added 0.05%-point to overall GDP growth in Q2 after having subtracted from overall growth in each of the previous five quarters. However, today’s report indicates that residential investment could return to being a drag in Q3.

Single-family starts plunged 9.9% m/m (-15.7% y/y) in July, the third monthly decline in the past four months, to the lowest level since November 2022. They had edged up 0.9% m/m in June. Usually volatile multi-family starts have been even more erratic over the past few months. They plummeted 16.8% m/m (-8.9% y/y) in July after a 76.8% monthly surge in June but a 41.4% monthly decline in May.

Starts fell in three of the four major geographic regions. Starts rose 17.1% m/m (62.4% y/y) in the Northeast in July on top of a 27.3% monthly gain in June. By contrast, starts fell 27.6% m/m (-27.0% y/y) in the Midwest, nearly reversing a 28.5% m/m jump in June. Starts declined 12.6% m/m (-24.1% y/y) in the South, the third monthly decline in the past four months. Starts decreased 13.8% m/m (+5.3% y/y) in the West, also the third monthly decline in the past four months.

In contrast to the marked decline in housing starts, housing permits rose 5.0% m/m (+3.1% y/y) in July, the first monthly increase in three months, to the highest level (1.443 million units) since February. Expectations were for little change in permits in July. Single-family permits rebounded, rising 2.5% m/m (+1.1% y/y) in July following a 2.2% monthly decline in June. Multi-family permits jumped 9.4% m/m (+6.4% y/y) in July, the first monthly increase in three months.

Reversing the regional performance of starts, permits fell in the Northeast (-2.6% m/m, +16.2% y/y), the first monthly decline in four months, but rose in each of the other three regions. Permits jumped 12.3% m/m (+2.7% y/y) in the Midwest, rose 6.6% m/m (-0.9% y/y) in the South and edged up 0.3% m/m (+8.0% y/y) in the West. 

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Housing starts plunged 12.4% m/m in July after a 19.7% monthly surge in June.
- Single family starts fell 9.9% m/m to their lowest level since November 2022 while multi-family starts plummeted 16.8% m/m.
- Less volatile permits increased 5.0% m/m in July, the first monthly increase in three months, with a 2.5% monthly gain in single-family permits and a 9.4% monthly jump in multi-family permits.

U.S. Housing Starts Fell Markedly in July

Robert Brusca

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**The Economic Situation**: This month the ZEW series from German financial experts shows improving economic situations. Two of the four featured economies improve: the euro area improves to a reading of -21.5 in August from -37.7 in July, and the German economy advances to -61.1 from -77.6. The U.S. worsens to a reading of 12.9 in August from 14.9 in July, and the Chinese assessment is nearly unchanged at -25.1 in August compared to -25.2 in July. Apart from these diffusion readings and quite different from the diffusion readings is the Chinese ranking in a top position with a 73.8 percentile standing. The euro area has a 56.6 percentile standing. The U.S. has a 41.7 percentile standing. Germany has a 30.9 percentile standing. Only China and the euro area have standings above the 50th mark, which place them above their historic medians for their respective periods.

**Macroeconomic expectations**: Macroeconomic expectations are provided for the country-level readings for Germany, the U.S., and China. All three countries make an improvement in August, with the largest improvement coming from Germany and the smallest improvement coming in China. The standings show that, in terms of macroeconomic expectations, Germany’s economy has a 58.8 percentile standing, the U.S. has a 48.2 percentile standing, close to its median but below it, and China has a 41.5 percentile standing.

**Inflation expectations**: The inflation expectations poll in August compared to July shows all countries with a drop off, including large drop-offs, in inflation concerns. Euro area expectations fall to 2.4 in August from 10.4 in July. In Germany, that expectation falls to a net diffusion reading of 1.8 from 14.9 in July. There is a sizeable drop off in China too, which logs 5.3 in August compared to 12.9 in July. The U.S. improvement is smaller at 11.8, down from 15.0 in July. While the diffusion readings are different across these countries, the percentile standings are fairly similar. The euro area, Germany, and China all have percentile standings in the range of roughly 36th to 38th percentile, while the U.S. percentile standing is lower at its 26th percentile. Despite what we are seeing in markets, the ZEW experts are undeterred in their inflation outlooks.

**Expectations for short-term rates**: Short-term interest rate expectations don't change in the euro area. There is some further backing off in the U.S. and substantial downshifting in China where there's a sign change to -2.1 in August from plus 8.8 in July. In August, the euro area has a nearly 80th percentile standing for its diffusion value. The U.S. has a slightly below-median 48th percentile standing, and China has a slightly above median standing at its 52nd percentile.

**Long-term rates moderate**: Long-term interest rate expectations show some moderation in August to pair with moderate queue standings. Germany falls to 24.2 in August from 27.7 in July, the U.S. steps back to 27.7 from 30.8 in July, and China backs down to a diffusion value of 12.3 from 17.0 in July. Germany and the U.S. have rankings around their 33rd percentile mark, while China has a ranking around its 55th percentile mark. Despite the lower diffusion reading, Chinese long-term rate expectations are high relative to historic experience in relation to the U.S. and Germany.

**Upbeat on Stocks**: One interesting feature is the positive outlook on stocks in August, with all four responding areas, the euro area, Germany, the U.S., and China, logging diffusion values close to 40. These are up from readings that were bunched around the 20 to 25 diffusion mark in July. Despite the clustering of the diffusion values, the queue percentile standings vary quite a lot. For China, the current reading, which is the weakest diffusion reading for stocks in the table of the four, has a 92.3 percentile standing. The U.S. has a 74.4 percentile standing, and the euro area has a 59.3 percentile standing. Germany has the lowest percentile standing, just below its median at a 49.7 percentile mark.

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The ZEW experts seem to be expecting a greater prospect of short-term interest rate increases based on the queue standings they report this month. Inflation expectations are relatively low by historic standards; however, that doesn't mean that interest rates can't or won't increase. Long-term interest rates seem to be in a pretty good spot, with 33rd percentile standings, except for the higher standing in China. All around, the ZEW experts are quite upbeat on the prospects for stocks that are well-supported by the low queue standings for things like short-term rate expectations, inflation expectations, and stable readings particularly in Germany and the U.S. for long-term interest rates. These expectations are particularly helpful in terms of the outlook for the stock market.

ZEW Survey Shows Some Stability and Improvement

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The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions unexpectedly rose to 20.6 in August following a 9.9-point rebound to 15.6 in July, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. A reading of 10.0 for August had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The positive August figure indicated that business activity in New York State expanded for the fifth consecutive month and at the fastest pace since December 2021; it was a sharp improvement from 9.1 in August 2025 and a low of -29.7 in January 2024. The percentage of respondents reporting an increase in general business conditions was 43.8% in August, up from 39.0% in July; the percentage reporting a decrease was 23.1%, down from July’s 23.4%. The latest survey was conducted between August 3 and August 10.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity and is not calculated from the components. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. This calculated index declined to 55.4 in August following a 4.1-point gain to 57.5 in July, representing the eighth straight expansion but at a slightly slower pace; it was modestly up from 53.8 in August 2025 and well above a low of 43.0 in January 2024. The index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories, with equal weights (20% each).

In the latest survey, the new orders index fell to 17.3 in August after an 18.7-point jump to 22.2 in July, marking the eighth consecutive expansion but at a slower pace; it was a sharp improvement from a low of -30.7 in January 2024 but a decline from a high of 19.6 in April 2023. The shipments index dropped to 11.7 in August following a 15.8-point recovery to 24.4 in July, representing the fifth successive expansion; it was well above a low of -21.7 in April 2024 but below a high of 21.0 in June 2023. The unfilled orders index jumped to 15.5 in August after holding at 5.0 in July and June, indicating unfilled orders expanded for the seventh straight month and at the highest level since April 2022; the index reached a low of -24.2 in January 2024. The inventories index fell to -5.2 in August following a 4.0-point increase to 4.0 in July, signaling inventories contracted for the first time since January and at the lowest level since August 2025. Meanwhile, the delivery times index rose to 20.6 in August, the highest reading since April 2022, from 13.0 in July, with 26.8% of respondents reporting longer delivery times and 6.2% reporting shorter times, indicating that delivery times continued to lengthen substantially.

On the labor front, the number of employees index decreased to 9.3 in August after a 1.8-point increase to 11.4 in July (the highest level since December 2022), indicating that employment expanded for the seventh consecutive month but at the slowest rate since May. The index remained well above a low of -9.3 in December 2023 but below a peak of 24.9 in February 2022. In August, 14.8% of respondents reported an increase in employment while 5.5% reported a decline. The average workweek index rebounded to 6.9 in August, a three-month high, from 2.8 in July (the lowest level since March), remaining positive for the seventh successive month.

Inflation pressures remained elevated in August. The prices paid index rose to 58.6 in August after an 8.7-point drop to 52.3 in July. The index was above a low of 25.9 in December 2024 and a low of 20.8 in December 2023, albeit remaining well below a peak of 84.9 in April 2022. In August, 59.4% of respondents reported higher prices paid while only 0.8% reported lower prices paid. The prices received index slid to 22.7 in August, a four-month low, from 27.6 in July. The index was above a low of 7.5 in December 2024 and a low of 7.7 in July 2023 but far below a high of 51.9 in March 2022. In August, 26.6% of respondents reported higher prices received while 3.8% reported lower prices received.

Firms remained optimistic about the future business outlook in the latest survey. The index for future business conditions increased to 32.1 in August, the highest level since May, after a 2.2-point easing to 27.9 in July, with 47.0% of respondents expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months. Future new orders climbed to 37.1 in August, the highest level since March 2022, from 33.2 in July, and future shipments rose to 33.7, a seven-month high, from 30.6. Growth in future employment accelerated to 28.2, the highest reading since March 2022, from July’s 14.4. Capital spending plans remained positive for the 10th straight month in August, with the future capital expenditures index rising to 16.5, a five-month high, from July’s 15.0. Expected prices paid rose to 57.7 in August from a four-month-low 53.0 in July, and expected prices received increased to 48.7 from a three-month-low 41.9.

The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- General Business Conditions Index up 5.0 pts. to 20.6 in Aug.; fifth straight expansion.
- New orders (17.3) down 4.9 pts. and shipments (11.7) down 12.7 pts. from a four-year high, both still indicating expansion.
- Unfilled orders (15.5), highest since Apr. ’22; inventories (-5.2), first contraction since Jan.
- Employment (9.3), a three-month low following July’s highest level since Dec. ’22.
- Prices paid (58.6) up 6.3 pts. from July; prices received (22.7), a four-month low.
- Firms remaining optimistic: Future Business Conditions Index up to 32.1, a three-month high; future prices paid rising to 57.7 from a four-month low.

U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Surprises to the Upside in August, Highest Since Dec. ’21

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Japan's industrial production was revised up to show a 2.2% gain in June after falling by 0.5% in May. Industrial production in Japan is accelerating, showing a 2.5% growth rate over 12 months, a 7.9% annual rate over six months, rising to a 9.8% annual rate over three months. Manufacturing is accelerating in step with the total industry measure.

Key industries like textiles and transportation show acceleration underway or something close to it. In the case of transportation equipment, a 6.4% growth rate over 12 months rises to 14.7% over six months, although it steps back to a 12% growth rate over three months. That's still a great acceleration over its growth rate for the full 12 months, doubling that pace.

Japan's mining industry shows all negative numbers, with declines in each of the last three months and with sequential growth rates showing sharper and faster declines in output over shorter periods.

Utilities delivering gas and electric services showed a sharp decline of 4.7% in June. Sequential growth rates for this sector are negative as well but equivocally decelerating. We see a -7.1% pace over 12 months, which improves to -6.4% over 6 months, and then worsens sharply to a -14.4% annualized rate over three months.

The just-ended quarter (quarter-to-date) shows industrial production up 2.4%, with manufacturing up only 0.8%, both at annual rates. Consumer goods output is up with a sharp 5.4% annual rate in the quarter, and intermediate goods output is up by 1.2%. Investment goods output is declining at a 1.1% annual rate, and mining is falling at a 16.5% annual rate. Electricity and gas utilities show growth rates in the quarter as negative as well.

Japan has had a difficult run since COVID struck. All of the industry breakdowns in the table show declines compared to their levels of activity in January 2020, five and a half years ago. That is stunning and widespread weakness. The economy is adapting. Manufacturing is showing some encouraging acceleration over the past year despite challenges aided by yen weakness. Global conditions are still touch-and-go with such high oil prices and turbulent conditions in the Middle East.

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Japan

Japan’s IP Emerges as Stronger

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Total retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% m/m to $763.6 billion in July after increases of 0.2% in June (unrevised) and 0.9% in May (+1.0% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed, pointing to a soft start to Q3 2026. A 0.2% m/m July increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The decline interrupted a streak of five straight m/m gains dating back to February. The year-on-year growth rate decelerated to 5.0% in July, the lowest since March, from 6.8% in June (4.1% in July 2025); it remained far below a high of 17.1% in February 2022 and a record-high 51.8% in April 2021.

Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales unexpectedly decreased 0.3% (+5.8% y/y) in July following a 0.2% decline in June and five consecutive m/m gains. A 0.2% m/m July increase had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts fell 1.8% (+1.9% y/y), the first m/m fall since April, reversing a 2.4% June rise; this compared to a 1.0% decline (-1.3% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales after a 2.6% June advance.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, fell 0.4% (+4.6% y/y) in July after a 0.4% increase in June, snapping a string of gains since January. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials slid 0.3% (+4.7% y/y), the first m/m slide since December, following a 0.4% June increase.

Sales by category showed mixed performance in July. To the downside, nonstore retail sales decreased 2.2% (+7.7% y/y) in July, the biggest m/m decline among major categories, after a 0.9% rise in June and a streak of gains dating back to January. Gasoline station sales fell 0.9% (+16.2% y/y) following a 5.8% June drop and four consecutive m/m increases. Electronics & appliance store sales, down for the second time in three months, declined 0.5% (+4.7% y/y) in July after holding steady in June. Meanwhile, sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales were virtually unchanged m/m (+10.1% y/y) after five straight m/m rises.

To the upside, clothing & accessory store sales rebounded 1.9% (5.0% y/y) in July following a 0.7% decline in June. Miscellaneous store sales grew 0.5% (10.7% y/y), the smallest of three successive m/m increases, after a 2.1% June gain. Building materials & garden equipment store sales climbed 0.3% (6.7% y/y), the ninth straight m/m rise, on top of a 1.2% June increase. Furniture & home furnishing store sales grew 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) after a 0.1% June easing. General merchandise store sales rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y) in July after a 0.2% increase in June; within this category, department store sales edged up 0.1% (2.5% y/y) following a flat June reading.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales recovered 0.7% (1.1% y/y) in July, up for the second time in three months, after a 0.4% decline in June. Food & beverage store sales were essentially unchanged m/m (+0.9% y/y) following a 0.1% June dip and three consecutive m/m rises.

Consumers appeared to dine out more frequently in July despite still-high inflation (July CPI +0.1% m/m, +3.4% y/y; core CPI +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y). Restaurant & drinking place sales rose 0.5% (5.0% y/y) in July, the fifth m/m gain in six months, after an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in June (+0.1% initially).

Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total retail sales -0.6% (+5.0% y/y) in July vs. +0.2% (+6.8% y/y) in June.
- Ex-auto sales -0.3% (+5.8% y/y), second successive m/m decline; auto sales -1.8% (+1.9% y/y), first drop since Apr.
- Ex-gas sales -0.6% (+4.2% y/y) and ex-auto & gas sales -0.2% (+4.8% y/y); both up m/m from Jan. to June.
- Retail control group -0.4% (+4.6% y/y) after six consecutive m/m increases.
- Declines m/m: nonstore sales (-2.2%), gasoline stations (-0.9%), electronics stores (-0.5%).
- Gains m/m: clothing stores (+1.9%), health & personal care stores (+0.7%), misc. stores (+0.5%), restaurants (+0.5%).

U.S. Retail Sales Disappoint in July Following Five Straight M/M Gains

Andrew Cates

**AI-related global growth revisions**
The most striking feature of this month's forecasting round is not the level of growth but the pattern of the revisions. Over the past six months Blue Chip forecasters have raised their 2026 growth projections for the economies most exposed to the artificial-intelligence investment cycle and the trade associated with it — Taiwan and South Korea in particular — while lowering them for parts of the West, including Australia, Canada and the euro area. A revision in a single economy reflects local conditions; the same revision across several at once reflects something broader: a cycle tilting towards the producers of AI-related capital goods and away from those more dependent on consumer demand — and on oil (chart 1).

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**Investment-led resilience in the United States**
In the United States, where the headline growth forecast has been trimmed only marginally, the composition of growth has become more investment-led. Business capital spending — directed towards data centres, electrification and the reshoring of supply chains — has been revised progressively higher through the year, even as the overall growth projection has held broadly stable (chart 2). Whether this proves durable will depend on whether the spending raises the economy’s productive capacity or largely defends existing positions; for the present it remains a principal support for the expansion.

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**Inflation and the supply side**
That expansion has so far proceeded without a corresponding rise in inflation. Price data have continued to come in below expectations even as measures of supply-chain pressure have turned higher — a divergence that in previous cycles tended not to persist (chart 3). The most plausible interpretation is that firms are for now absorbing higher input and transport costs within their margins rather than passing them on. It is a benign configuration, and part of the reason markets have been able to look through the geopolitical backdrop, though possibly not a durable one: the gap between cost pressure and consumer prices is precisely what a further energy shock would be likely to close.

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**The role of Chinese demand**
Still, a further energy shock has so far been avoided, and the explanation lies less in Middle Eastern supply than in Chinese demand. Renewed conflict might in other circumstances have pushed crude prices sharply higher; instead, subdued activity in China has reduced its crude imports by several million barrels a day relative to late 2025, limiting the effect of any disruption to supply (chart 4). The composition of those imports has also shifted, with discounted Russian and sanctioned Iranian volumes displacing Gulf supplies, so that the Gulf’s share has fallen even as total imports have declined.

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**Global imbalances and the yen**
The re-widening of global current-account imbalances has acquired fresh significance against the backdrop of Japan’s recent intervention in the currency market. China’s external surplus has returned to near-record levels while the United States’ deficit has widened towards one, leaving the gap between the world’s largest surplus and deficit economies at its widest in more than a decade (chart 5). Large external surpluses are held as large stocks of foreign assets, and the coordinated action to support the yen — financed in part from Japan’s substantial reserves, much of which are invested in US Treasuries — is a reminder that the management of those holdings now carries direct implications for global bond markets. That the surpluses of the major creditors are no longer recycled into Western government debt as readily as in the past is also possibly one reason for why US long-term yields have been elevated.

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**The longer-run energy transition**
A final chart lengthens the horizon well beyond the week. Across thirty-one countries and a quarter of a century, the share of electricity generated by wind and solar has risen from a negligible level at the turn of the century to around a sixth of the world’s total today, and considerably more in the leading economies (chart 6). The progression is barely perceptible from one month to the next but unmistakable over longer periods — a reminder that the more consequential shifts in the global economy tend to occur gradually, and to continue irrespective of the immediate news.

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Global markets kept a composed tone this week even as the backdrop grew more unsettled. Renewed fighting in the Middle East lifted oil prices but left equities largely unmoved, the earlier decline in semiconductor shares having faded as earnings held up; long-term interest rates continued to grind higher, with the increase concentrated in real yields rather than inflation expectations; and the major central banks, having diverged over the course of the year, are now expected to move in different directions. Inflation, for its part, remained subdued. The charts that follow take up these themes. The first two draw on this month’s forecasting round: growth expectations for 2026 have been revised up across the AI-exposed economies of Asia and trimmed across much of the West, pointing to a global cycle growing at two speeds (chart 1), while in the United States the resilience of the expansion increasingly reflects business investment rather than household spending (chart 2). The next two concern the benign inflation backdrop: price data have continued to undershoot forecasts even as supply-chain pressures have edged higher (chart 3), and the oil market has remained well supplied in part because Chinese import demand has fallen sharply (chart 4). The final two look beyond the cycle: the current-account imbalance between the United States and China has widened close to record levels, a theme given fresh salience by Japan’s recent currency intervention (chart 5), while the longer-run shift towards wind and solar power has continued largely irrespective of the week’s events (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: Beneath the Calm

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The Current Activity Diffusion Index from the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia rose further to 47.4 in August, a five-year high, after having jumped to 41.4 in July from 10.3 in June. A reading of 25.0 for August was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Almost 57% of respondents reported increases in current activity (up from 53% in July and 32% in June), far exceeding the 9.6% reporting decreases (down from 11.7% in July and 21.9%); 28.8% of respondents reported no change in current activity (up from 24.% in July). Survey responses were collected from August 10- August 17.

The headline index is the answer to just one question: whether activity increased, decreased or was unchanged from the previous month. Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from the five key component indexes using the methodology employed to construct the national ISM index. This figure slipped to 57.5 in August from 58.1 in July but was still well above the critical 50 value that separates contraction from expansion.

For the component indexes, the current new orders and shipments indexes both declined in August but remained above their long-run non-recession averages. The new orders index fell 7 points to 30.1. Almost 46% of respondents reported an increase in new orders, 16% reported a decrease, and 36% reported no change. The shipments index declined from 33.7 to 27.7 in August with 41% of respondents reporting an increase (down from 45% in July) and 12% reporting a decrease versus 9% in July. Delivery times continued to lengthen in August but at a slower pace than in July with the index slipping to 3.7 in August from 9.6 in July.

The August survey showed tighter labor market conditions. The employment index rose 18 points to 27.9, its highest reading since April 2022. Nearly 33% of respondents reported an increase in employment levels (up from 13% in July), 5% reported decreases (up from 3% in July), and 62 percent reported no change (down from 83%), the lowest reading in two years. The average workweek index rose from 14.0 to 26.5, the highest reading since December 2021.

Both price indexes declined in August to their lowest readings since February but remained above their long-run non-recession averages. The prices paid index fell 13 points to 40.9 in August. Nearly 41% of respondents reported increases in input prices (down from 54% in July), while none reported decreases (unchanged); 59% reported no change (up from 46%). The current prices received index declined 10 points to 17.7. More than 21% of respondents reported increases in the prices of their own goods, 3% reported decreases, and 74% reported no change.

The diffusion index for future general activity jumped 39 points to 73.6 in August, its highest reading since August 1983. The future new orders index increased 31 points to 66.0, and the future shipments index rose 24 points to 63.5, each reaching its highest reading in more than five years. Firms continue to expect increases in employment over the next six months. The future employment index rose 6 points to 35.4, after having declined for four consecutive months. Both future price indexes moved further above their long-run averages, mostly offsetting last month’s declines. The future prices paid index rose 6 points to 62.9, and the future prices received index increased 18 points to 59.8. The index for future capital expenditures increased 18 points to 48.2, its highest reading in 53 years.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The indexes range from -100 to +100 with positive values indicating an increase in activity. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The headline index increased to 47.4 in August, a five-year high, after having jumped to 41.4 in July. Expectations were for a meaningful decline to 25.0.
- However, the ISM-adjusted index edged down to 57.5 in August from 58.1 in July but was still well above the critical 50 level.
- Price indexes declined in August but remained elevated.
- Delivery times continued to lengthen but at a slower pace than in July.
- The diffusion index for future general activity climbed 39 points to 73.6 this month, its highest reading since August 1983.

U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Rose to Five-Year High in August

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