Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Andrew Cates

**Global growth**
Latest flash PMI readings reveal a widening gap in manufacturing performance across major economies. Europe remains mired in contraction, with both the UK and euro area registering PMI figures below the 50 threshold. The UK’s manufacturing sector is particularly under pressure, with the PMI dropping to a new low not seen in over a year—reflecting weak output and mounting challenges from both domestic uncertainty and external shocks, including the disruptive impact of recent US trade actions. While the euro area shows tentative signs of stabilization, with PMI readings inching higher, the recovery remains fragile. In sharp contrast, India’s manufacturing sector continues to outperform, with PMI figures climbing further and signalling resilient industrial momentum amidst global headwinds.

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**US capex intentions**
The latest reading from the US Philly Fed survey suggests a sharp drop in capex intentions among manufacturers in the Philadelphia region, likely reflecting growing uncertainty in the wake of the US administration’s surprise announcement of sweeping tariffs on April 2nd, 2025. This abrupt policy shift has rattled business confidence, echoing past episodes—such as during the 2008 financial crisis and early stages of the pandemic—when capex sentiment similarly plunged. The downturn underscores how policy-induced trade disruptions can swiftly chill investment appetite, particularly in manufacturing sectors exposed to global supply chains.

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**South Korean trade**
The fallout from President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs and the rapid escalation of the trade dispute with China is also now becoming evident in Asia’s trade data. South Korea’s trade figures for the first 20 days of April—often seen as a bellwether for global trade—fell sharply compared to the same period last year. The drop was led by a steep decline in exports to the United States, where tariffs on Chinese goods have surged to as high as 145%, effectively choking bilateral trade flows outside a narrow band of exemptions for strategic goods like electronics and semiconductors. Even these sectors are feeling the strain: South Korea’s semiconductor exports continued to decelerate in April, highlighting the broader collateral damage of deepening trade tensions.

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**Gold prices**
The latest escalation in US-China trade tensions is reverberating far beyond traditional trade channels. Market sentiment has deteriorated noticeably, weighed down by darkening global growth prospects and deepening uncertainty over the future of relations between the world’s two largest economies. The forced decoupling is also reshaping investor behaviour, particularly among Chinese investors, who are increasingly turning to stateless safe-haven assets like gold. This shift is evident in the surge in trading volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the steady climb in global gold prices—buoyed further by a weakening US dollar. The trend points to rising concern among Chinese investors about the geographic concentration of their wealth, as Washington’s increasingly hawkish posture prompts a reassessment of cross-border financial exposure.

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**The US dollar and market volatility** 
Recent sweeping US-led trade actions and a broader turn toward protectionism have sharply eroded the goodwill and soft power long associated with the US and its financial assets. As Washington becomes an increasingly prominent source of global instability, investor confidence in the US dollar as a safe-haven currency has weakened. This loss of faith is reflected across asset markets, with the dollar’s persistent and more entrenched decline against major currencies standing out as a clear signal of a broader reassessment of the US’s global economic role. Elevated market uncertainty reinforces this shift, as underscored by still-high—albeit slightly moderated—readings on the VIX volatility index.

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**Asia’s consumption**
Viewed in a broader context, the recent actions by the US may signal an effort to rebalance its economy—though whether this strategy is well-calibrated remains highly contested. As the issuer of the world’s dominant reserve currency, the US has long been ensnared in the so-called Triffin dilemma: global demand for dollar-denominated assets has sustained persistent trade deficits, gradually undermining the competitiveness of its domestic manufacturing and other tradable sectors. China, by contrast, grapples with the mirror image of this problem. Its growth model remains heavily anchored in manufacturing and external surpluses, and it is now under mounting pressure to pivot toward consumption-led growth—an imperative sharpened by the latest wave of US measures designed to curb Chinese export strength.

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Financial market volatility has remained elevated over the past several days as investors attempted to weigh a modest improvement in sentiment—driven by a potential, if partial, retreat by the US administration from its aggressive tariff stance—against a still-cloudy global outlook. Signals from flash PMI surveys on global growth remain mixed: Europe continues to stagnate, with the UK particularly weak, while India stands out with resilient and rising manufacturing activity (chart 1). In the US, most of the incoming data suggest that business confidence has faltered, with capital expenditure intentions plunging particularly sharply in the wake of the April 2nd tariff announcement (chart 2). The drag from trade tensions is, moreover, becoming more evident: South Korea’s exports have slumped, especially to the US, and even sectors granted exemptions—like semiconductors—are showing signs of strain (chart 3). These pressures are reverberating through financial markets as well, where Chinese investors are shifting into gold as a hedge, fuelling record trading volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and lifting global gold prices (chart 4). Meanwhile, a broadly-based decline in the US dollar and persistently high readings on the VIX index arguably reflect a deeper reassessment of US assets as reliable safe havens amid mounting policy unpredictability (chart 5). Beneath these short-term ripples lie more entrenched structural challenges: the US is seeking to rebalance away from external deficits linked to its reserve currency role, while China is under growing pressure to pivot toward consumption-led growth—an imperative sharpened by American efforts to choke off its export strength (chart 6). In short, the latest softening in US trade rhetoric may offer brief relief, but the underlying economic, geopolitical, and structural crosswinds remain very much in play.

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/2IjMlHRbWf4hxzucxtpZJg?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Dollar Dips and Trade Trips

Tom Moeller

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of manufacturing sector activity declined to -4 during April from -2 in March, indicating a continued decline in factory sector activity. The index has been at zero or below since October 2022. This survey was taken between April 16-21.

Haver Analytics calculates an index based on the Kansas City results which is comparable to the ISM series. This index eased to 50.0 (NSA) from 51.4 in March. It compared to a low of 43.7 last July.

The new orders index of -11 this month compared to -12 in March. Thirty percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher orders while 37% reported a decline. Shipments improved to -2 from -4 and remained above -12 in December. Thirty-three percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher shipments while 28% reported a decline. Employment fell to -11 this month from -4 In March. It has been negative for three straight months. Thirteen percent (NSA) of respondents reported more hiring while 25% reported less. The average workweek index fell to -6 from +6 in March. Supplier delivery times surged to 13 from -1 as a higher 18% (NSA) of respondents reported a quickening of delivery speeds and a lessened 2% indicated a slowdown. Finished goods inventories rose to +5 from -8 in March, indicating the greatest rate of inventory accumulation in four months. Materials inventories weakened to -5 in April from +4 in March.

Inflation indicators strengthened in April. The prices paid index for finished products jumped to 29 from 15 in March. It was the highest reading in almost three years, up from a low of -3 in July 2023. Thirty-four percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while none paid less. The raw materials index held at 42, up from a low of -1 in October 2023.

The composite index of expectations six months ahead fell to 6 in April from 10 in March. It was below a high of 17 in December. Expectations for future shipments fell to 9 this month, down from 31 in December. Orders expectations also weakened significantly, with the index falling to a minimal 3 from 20 in March. The employment reading of 1 compared to zero in March and 19 in December. Expectations continue to be for higher prices. The expectations index for finished goods prices jumped to 59, a roughly three-year high, from 39 in March. Raw material prices jumped to 71 in April, also a three-year high, from 57 in March.

The latest survey was conducted between April 16-21, 2024 and included 97 responses from factories in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and western Missouri.

The series dates back to July 2001. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

The Fed’s latest **Beige Book** covering regional economic conditions is available [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdf).

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- Index has moved sideways for over two years.
- Most components remain negative.
- Prices paid reading surges.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index Declines in April; Expectations Diminish

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Existing home sales declined 5.9% (-2.4% y/y) during March to 4.02 million units after rising 4.4% to 4.270 million units in February, revised from 4.26 million, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 4.15 million unit sales. The March sales decline accompanied an easing in the effective 30-year mortgage interest rate to an average 6.65% in March from 6.84% in February. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales in March declined 6.4% (-2.2% y/y) to 3.64 million units after a 5.7% increase to 3.89 million in February. Sales of condos and co-ops held steady (-5.0% y/y) at 380,000, following a 7.3% February decline.

Sales declined in all regions in March. Sales in the West fell 9.4% (+1.3% y/y) to 770,000 after a 13.3% strengthening in February. Sales in the South declined 5.7% (-4.2% y/y) to 1.81 million after a 4.9% February increase. Sales in the Northeast were off 2.0%, unchanged y/y to 490,000, down for the third straight month. Sales in the Midwest declined 5.0% (-3.1% y/y) to 950,000 units after holding steady in February.

The median price averaged by all existing homes (NSA) rose 1.7% (2.7% y/y) to $403,700 in March after a 0.9% February increase. Prices remained below a high of $426,900 in June 2024. The median price of an existing single-family home rose 1.8% (2.9% y/y) to $408,000 in March and the median price of condos and co-ops increased 2.3% (1.5% y/y) to $363,000 last month. Prices for all homes rose 2.3% (+3.5 y/y) in the Midwest to $302,100. In the South, prices rose 1.2% (0.6% y/y) to $360,400. Prices in the Northeast prices increased 0.8% (7.7% y/y) to $468,000 while in the West prices rose 1.1% (2.6% y/y) to $621,200.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 8.1% (19.8% y/y) to 1.33 million units in March following a 4.2% February increase. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) increased to 4.0 months. A high of 4.2 months occurred in September 2024. The record low in supply of 1.6 months occurred in January 2022.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales are lowest since September.
- Decline extends throughout the country.
- Median sales price increases.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall Sharply in March

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New orders for durable manufactured goods jumped 9.2% (11.9% y/y) during March after increasing 0.9% in February, revised from 1.0%. A 2.0% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 27.0% rise (31.2% y/y) in transportation sector orders accounted for the rise, following a 1.2% gain. Excluding the transportation sector, new orders for durable goods held steady (+2.2% y/y), after a 0.7% rise during February.

The March rise in transportation orders was driven by a more-than-doubling of aircraft & parts orders and a 2.3% increase (0.6% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts, coming on the heels of a 5.1% February gain. Primary metals orders rose 0.7% (4.6% y/y) after rising 1.3% while fabricated metals orders increased 0.2% (2.7% y/y) after a 1.2% rise. Machinery orders edged 0.1% higher (1.1% y/y) after increasing 0.8% in February. Elsewhere, orders declined. Computer & electronic product orders fell 1.2% (+2.7% y/y) following a 0.1% easing while electrical equipment, appliance & component orders declined 0.5% (5.2% y/y) after rising 0.6% in February.

Nondefense capital goods orders surged 29.4% (32.3% y/y), while nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft improved 0.1% (1.8% y/y) in March after falling 0.3% in February. Defense capital goods orders fell 9.4% (+3.5% y/y), the sixth straight month of sharp decline.

Factory shipments of durable goods edged 0.1% higher (3.7% y/y) in March following a 1.3% February rise. Transportation sector shipments fell 0.5% (+7.3% y/y) after a 2.4% gain. Shipments excluding the transportation sector improved 0.4% (2.1% y/y) following a 0.8% rise. Machinery shipments gained 0.5% (0.3% y/y) following a 0.9% rise while computer & electronic product shipments eased 0.2% (+4.0% y/y) after rising 1.6%. Shipments of electronics & appliances rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y) after a 0.3% decline. Shipments of all manufactured products eased 0.1% (+2.1% y/y) in March after improving 0.7% in February. Shipments of nondefense capital goods less aircraft rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) after rising 0.7% in February.

Unfilled orders of durable goods rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) during March after a 0.1% February gain. Excluding transportation, backlogs eased 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) after no change in February. Inventories of durable goods edged 0.1% higher (1.0% y/y) following no change during both of the prior two months. Less transportation, durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (0.3% y/y) after holding steady in February. Inventories of all manufactured products rose 0.1% (1.0% y/y) during March for the third month in a row.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Increase exceeds expectations after moderate February rise.
- Transportation orders account for all of last month’s gain.
- Nondefense capital goods less aircraft orders are minimally higher.

U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Surge During March

Winnie Tapasanun

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was at -0.03 in March, down from +0.24 in February (+0.18 initially) and up from -0.26 in January (-0.08 previously), today’s report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed, indicating U.S. economic growth decreased for the month. The March CFNAI registered the second negative reading in three months and the eighth negative in 10 months; it was up from -0.20 in March 2024 but below a high of +0.38 in February 2024.

The index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, dropped to -0.01 in March after rising to +0.12 in February (+0.15 initially), posting the first negative reading since December; nevertheless, it was an improvement from -0.21 in March 2024. The CFNAI-MA3 is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the Chicago Fed indicates that an average reading of -0.70 or below is consistent with the economy being in a recession. Thus, the March reading suggests that the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession.

The March negative reading reflected m/m drops in two of the four CFNAI key components and three negative contributions. The contribution of the Production & Income index decreased to -0.09 in March from +0.25 in February; however, it was up from -0.10 in March 2024 and a low of -0.59 in December 2022. The contribution of the Sales, Orders & Inventories index fell to -0.03 in March from +0.01 in February, but it was up from -0.05 in March 2024 and a low of -0.23 in January 2024. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours index contributed -0.01 in March, slightly up from -0.02 in February and improved from -0.04 in March 2024. Meanwhile, the contribution of the Personal Consumption & Housing index to the CFNAI rose to +0.11 in March, the highest reading since January 2023, after rebounding to a neutral value (0.00) in February; it was also up from -0.01 in March 2024.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average, fell to -0.01 in March after posting +0.12 in February (+0.16 initially) and +0.07 in January (+0.08 previously) and a string of negative readings from March 2023 to December 2024. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. The March reading was up from -0.18 in March 2024 and a low of -0.35 in October 2023; however, having remained below a high of +0.25 in September 2022.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- CFNAI -0.03 in March vs. +0.24 in February.
- Two of four CFNAI components fall m/m and three make negative contributions.
- Personal Consumption & Housing index rises to the highest since Jan. ’23.
- CFNAI-MA3 declines to -0.01, the first negative reading since Dec.; still above -0.70 (recession signal).

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls Back to a Negative Reading in March

Carol Stone, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 222,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ended April 19, up modestly from 216,000 the week before. That previous week was just marginally revised from 215,000. The latest week was exactly equal to the forecast survey amount of 222,000, as in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries -- also known as “continuing claims”—in the week ended April 12 was 1.841 million, down from 1.878 million in the prior week; that was revised from 1.885 million. The four-week moving average was 1,864,000, modestly lower than the 1,865,500 in the prior week.

The insured unemployment rate, that is, the number of beneficiaries as a percentage of covered employment, remained at 1.2%. This rate has been stable at that amount since the week of January 6, 2024, when it dipped to 1.1%.

Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended April 5, the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.49%), Rhode Island (2.34%), California (2.29%), Washington (2.22%) and Minnesota (2.17%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.34%), Alabama (0.40%), Virginia (0.47%), South Dakota (0.51%) and North Carolina and Nebraska (both 0.52%). Rates in other noteworthy states include New York (1.75%), Pennsylvania (1.57%), Illinois (1.96%) and Texas (1.11%).

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims equal the 222,000 forecast amount
- Continuing claims ease modestly; prior week revised down somewhat
- Insured unemployment rate maintains longstanding 1.2%

U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Hold Fairly Steady

Robert Brusca

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Household confidence in France has steadied after along climb up from an historically weak level. Still, confidence has only a 36.5 percentile standing.

Living standards show mixed changes this month. Standards compared to the past 12 months are a bit better month-to-month, while looking ahead, they are weaker and fall by 3 survey points.

However, unemployment expectations have moved sharply higher for the month, rising to 51 in April from 47 in March, to a very high percentile standing at the 70.4 percentile mark.

Price developments are moderating with weaker readings compared to 12 months ago. The percentile standings for prices, however, are modest, below the 50-percentile mark, showing these are below median readings both looking backward and looking ahead.

The savings environment has worsened both on backward-looking and forward-looking savings responses. And the rankings for these environments are both very high.

The saving environments dove-tails with a spending environment that did improve on the month, remains weak, and has a ranking at its 34th percentile. The environment is very favorable to save and not very favorable to spend.

The financial situation is little-changed in the month either looking-forward or looking-backward. That is a rather odd result, given the uncertainty over tariffs; but then maybe when policy causes uncertainty viewpoints freeze. On a month-to-month comparison, we see stronger financial situation ranking looking back 12-months that has an above median percentile standing at 65.4; but looking ahead there is a below median standing at the 44.2 percentile.

The table also presents two columns tracking the economic shock from before Covid to before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and secondly from that point to date. What this shows generally is that at the time of the invasion, most of the survey items had improved upon their pre-Covid readings. One exception is that unemployment concerns were still further elevated. But then from pre-invasion forward, most readings are substantially weaker. But in comparison, the change in unemployment is strikingly higher.

On balance, France’s household responses seem to exhibit some stickiness that may be a product of uncertainly. The overall readings remain weak.

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France

French Household Sentiment Marks Time

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New single-family home sales increased 7.4% (6.0% y/y) to 724,000 (SAAR) during March after increasing 3.1% in February to 674,000, revised from 676,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 686,000. The sales rise in March occurred as the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to an average 6.65% last month from 6.84% in February, according to Freddie Mac. It compares to a low of 6.18% averaged in September.

By region, home sales varied across the country last month. New home sales in the Northeast declined 22.2% (-33.3% y/y) to 28,000 in March, after rising 33.3% in February. Sales in the Midwest rose 3.0% (-15.9% y/y) to 69,000, after rising 8.1% in February. In the South, new home sales increased 13.6% (22.3% y/y) to 483,000, following a 7.6% February rise. New home sales in the West declined 1.4% (-12.2% y/y) to 144,000, after falling 14.1% in February.

The median sales price of a new home fell 1.9% (-7.5% y/y) to $403,600 in March after falling 4.6% to $411,500 in February. The average sales price of a new home improved 1.0% (-4.7% y/y) to $497,700 in March, following a 3.6% February decline. The average price was 8.0% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 0.6% (7.9% y/y) to 503,000 in March, after a 0.8% February increase. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale fell to 8.3 months in March after falling to 8.9 months in February. The latest reading remained above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023.	

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market increased to 3.1 months in March, up from a June 2024 low of 2.1 months. It was the highest level since April 2022. The latest number stood well above its record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022, but remained below a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales rise to highest level in six months.
- Changes in sales are mixed across the country.
- Median sales price falls to four-month low.

U.S. New Home Sales Improve in March; Prices Weaken

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The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence fell 8.4% (-11.8% y/y) to 86.0 after a 6.2% decline in March to 93.9, revised from down 7.2%. A reading of 87.2 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The April figure was 23.8% below its November 2024 high. Weakness in confidence is widespread amongst components in this latest report.

The Expectations Index plunged 18.7% (-20.9% y/y) to 54.4, after falling 10.6% in March, revised from a 12.8% decline. This latest figure was the weakest since October 2011. The Present Situation index fell 0.7% (-5.0% y/y) to 133.5, after declining 2.7% in March and 1.3% in February. The reading was the lowest in seven months.

The percentage of respondents assessing business conditions as “good” rose to 19.2% this month after declining to 18.3% in March. The index hit a high of 22.0% in October. The percentage assessing conditions as “bad” eased to 16.1% after rising to 16.5% in March. The appraisal of labor market conditions dipped m/m in April as 31.7% of respondents thought jobs were plentiful, down from 33.6% in March. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 16.6% of respondents this month, up from 16.1% in March. This measure has risen from 11.0% in January 2024. The labor market differential calculated by Haver Analytics (the percentage of consumers who think jobs are plentiful minus the percentage who believe that jobs are currently hard to get) fell to 15.1% compared to 17.5% in March and remained below a high of 47.1% in March 2022. This series has a 60% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years.

Expectations for business conditions deteriorated in April. A lessened 15.7% of respondents expect conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 20.8% in both February and January, while a higher 34.8% expect them to deteriorate, up from 25.5% in February. On employment, a lessened 13.7% expect the number of jobs to increase over the next six months. The percentage expecting the number of jobs to decline in the next six months rose to 32.1% after surging to 26.6% in February. A lessened 15.0% expect income to increase in six months. That remained down from a high of 20.7% in November and compares to a higher 18.2% who expect income to decrease, up from 11.8% in October.

The expected rate of price inflation over the next twelve months jumped to 7.0% in April after increasing to 6.0% in March. This compares to a low of 5.0% in November. Interest rates are expected to rise this year by a higher 56.1% of respondents, up from a 45.5% low in November 2024. The percentage of respondents expecting equity prices to increase over the next twelve months declined to 36.1% after dropping from 57.2% in November, while the percentage expecting a decline in stock prices jumped to 48.5% from a 21.7 low in November.

The percentage of respondents planning to buy a home fell in April to 4.5% from 5.6% in March. Plans to purchase an automobile eased to 10.5% this month, down from 10.7% in March and February.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Confidence weakens to lowest level since May 2020.
- Expectations reading plummets to 2011 low; present situation reading eases.
- Inflation and interest rate expectations rise further.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slides Again in April; Inflation Expectations Strengthen

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