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With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Sandy Batten

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Nonfarm business productivity (output per hour) continued its robust rise in Q4, increasing 2.8% q/q SAAR following an upwardly revised 5.2% quarterly jump in Q3 (previously 4.9%). A quarterly gain of 1.9% was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Compared to a year ago, productivity rose 2.8% in Q3, up from an upwardly revised 2.4% in Q3 (previously 1.9%). The January employment report contained meaningful downward revisions to employment (and hours) in 2024 and 2025. However, there were no significant revisions to output, meaning that productivity growth was generally revised higher. Since productivity growth began to accelerate at the beginning of 2023, it has grown at a well above trend 2.8% annual rate. Strong productivity is a key factor for boosting real incomes and restraining inflation pressures.

Nonfarm business output increased 2.6% q/q in Q4 on top of unrevised gains of 5.4% q/q in Q3 and 5.2% quarterly in Q2 while hours worked edged down 0.2% q/q in Q4, the first quarterly decline since Q4 2023, versus a 0.2% quarterly increase in Q3 (previously 0.5% q/q). Compensation growth picked up to 5.7% q/q in Q4 from an upwardly revised 3.3% in Q3 (previously 2.9% q/q) in Q3. Compared to a year ago, compensation growth picked up to 4.1% in Q4 from 3.8% in Q3. Accordingly, with the slowdown in productivity and pickup in compensation, unit labor costs increased 2.8% q/q after quarterly decreases of 1.8% and 2.9% in Q3 and Q2, respectively. Compared to a year ago, unit labor cost growth was unchanged at 1.3%, the smallest annual gain since Q3 2023.

Factory output fell 2.2% q/q SAAR in Q4, its first quarterly decline in a year, following a slightly downwardly revised 2.9% in Q3 (previously 3.0%). Hours worked fell 0.3% in Q4, the sixth consecutive quarterly decline, following a 0.6% q/q decline in Q3. Consequently, factory productivity slumped 1.9% q/q, its first quarterly decline since Q3 2024, after having posted solid gains of 3.6% in Q3, 3.2% in Q2 and 4.6% in Q1. Factory compensation growth picked up to 6.4% q/q on top of a 4.8% quarterly jump in Q3. The combination of a decline in productivity and a meaningful rise in compensation led to an 8.3% quarterly surge in manufacturing unit labor costs in Q4, the largest quarterly increase since Q3 2022.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Nonfarm business output per hour rose 2.8% q/q SAAR in Q4 on top of an upward revision to Q3.
- Compensation jumped 5.7% q/q in Q4 resulting in a 2.8% quarterly increase in unit labor costs.

U.S. Productivity Increases More than Expected in Q4

Michael J. Moran

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The headline figure for import prices rose 0.2% in January (annual rate of 2.6%), matching the change in December and continuing a pattern of generally subdued changes. The ups and downs of import prices in the past two years have left little net change, with the year-over-year rate at -0.1% in January.

The flat trend, though, reflected distinctly different patterns in the prices of petroleum products and nonpetroleum goods. Petrol prices have traced an irregular downward path, with notable weakness recently: January marked the sixth consecutive decline. Prices of nonpetroleum products, in contrast, broke from a flat trend most of last year with surges in both December and January.

The distinctly different paths are evident in the chart above (right), which plots the levels of these price indexes rather than the percent changes. (Figures for nonpetroleum prices are not available for October because of the government shutdown.) The break in trend for nonpetroleum import prices is striking. One is tempted to argue that the surge reflects the effects of tariffs, but this is most likely not the case. The figures in this report are based on invoices before the imposition of tariffs, and thus there is no direct effect.

However, one might imagine an indirect effect. If foreign producers wished to absorb the tariff burden to remain competitive in the US market, they could reduce invoiced prices to keep post-tariff prices steady. Indeed, nonpetroleum prices fell in both May and June following the announcement of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs. The subsequent easing of the draconian tariffs announced in April might have led importers to return to original prices in recent months, which would now be picked up as higher prices.

On the export side, prices rose 0.59% in December and 0.65% in January (annual rates of 7.3% and 8.0%). The jumps represent a marked deviation from the modest net change seen from March through September last year (October is not available because of the government shutdown). Several components of the headline index remained contained (automobiles, food, industrial supplies), but prices of consumer goods and capital goods surged. The cause of the acceleration is not perfectly clear. Perhaps the soft tone of the foreign exchange value of the dollar in the past year or so offered the opportunity to boost profit margins by raising dollar prices.

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Nonpetroleum import prices break from a flat trend with jumps in both December and January.
- Export prices also accelerate, led by consumer goods and capital goods.

Export and Import Prices: Upward Pressure Points in January

Robert Brusca

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Motor vehicle registrations in January fell by 6.1%, while overall retail sales volume, a separate category, fell by 0.1%. Motor vehicle registrations are notoriously volatile; they increased by 1.8% in December and fell by 3.3% in November. Retail sales, however, have been more chronically flat, with no change in November, a 0.2% increase in December, and now a 0.1% decline in January. These numbers are quite weak because they're already inflation-adjusted, expressed in volume terms.

Sequentially volume sales are weakening in the EMU, with the growth rate slipping from 2.1% over 12 months to a 1.4% pace over six months to just a 0.4% annual rate gain over three months. Food sales have been more stable but have been somewhat more erratically weakened over this same period. Motor vehicle registrations have been imploding, falling by 3% over 12 months, dropping to a 12.4% annual rate over six months and plunging at a 27.1% annual rate over three months.

In the unfolding quarter to date, with one month's data in hand, first quarter retail sales are rising at a 0.2% annual rate; food sales are rising at a 2.7% annual rate. Motor vehicle registrations are declining at a 31.3% annual rate.

We can also inspect these data on a country by country basis. We have Germany and the Netherlands from the European Monetary Union, Sweden and Norway representing Northern Europe, the United Kingdom as a nonaligned former monetary union member, and lastly Denmark as an EU member.

Germany is the largest economy in Europe, and its sales fell in January. More disconcerting, sales in Germany are generally on a decelerating path, growing at a 1.2% pace over 12 months, at a 0.5% pace over six months, and contracting at a 1% annual rate pace over three months. The Netherlands, another monetary union member, is experiencing a very different trend, with sales rising by 3.3% in January and then accelerating from 12 months to six months to three months as growth rates have progressed from 1.4% to 6.1% to 8.8%, respectively. In Denmark, a European Union member but not a monetary union member, sales rose by 0.7% in January, while its sequential sales show growth rates of 3.7% over 12 months and 3.8% over six months, and then suddenly weaken to 0.4% over three months.

The United Kingdom is showing a progression of sales that is fairly firm. In January, sales rose by 1.9%. The annual growth rate is at 4.5% over 12 months, easing slightly to 3% over six months, and then jumping to 7.7% over three months.

Sweden and Norway are fellow Northern European economies but do not share the same trends in retail sales. In January, Swedish sales rose by 0.1%, while Norwegian sales rose by 1.1%. The progression of growth rates in Sweden shows sales over 4% over six months and 12 months, with the growth rate decelerating to 2.1% at an annual rate over three months. In Norway, 12-month and 6-month growth rates for sales are at 3% to 4% and then jump to a 7.3% annual rate over three months.

Monthly data on sales volume growth have been irregular. January was the most consistently strong month of the most recent three, albeit with Germany posting a significantly large drop in retail sales, which is disconcerting for the largest economy in the euro area.

The sequential data show sales accelerations in the Netherlands and in Norway juxtaposed once again to Germany, where sales growth rates are decelerating and culminate in declining growth over the most recent three months. Sequential data also show a clear deceleration in sales volumes for the euro area as a whole. In addition, there is a significant sales implosion for motor vehicle registrations on the same timeline.

The quarter-to-date data for the euro area show weak sales growth, while the country level data show sales increasing for all the countries in the table except Germany in the quarter to date, which is a nascent calculation at this point.

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From here on out, the outlook encounters more cross currents since inflation in the euro area appears to be tamer but continues to run at a pace slightly excessive relative to target. Now with a new conflict in the Middle East and concern about oil being able to squeeze through the Strait of Hormuz, there's a more significant question about how much further oil prices might rise, further stoking inflation that is already mildly excessive in most countries that target inflation. There is an additional facet about uncertainty and the impact it will have on growth, although at this point the war in the Middle East appears to be exceptionally well conducted and appears to be quite contained. However, we know that conditions like this can change quickly, although it's not out of the question that this could be an exception.

These factors infuse the outlook with additional elements of uncertainty. Central banks are going to be faced with the question of whether they are going to allow themselves to continue overshooting their targets as they have been doing for some time, or whether they are going to take even mild steps to try to contain what could be spreading inflation pressures.

In Asia, Japan is facing more extreme questions, with its exchange rate having moved strongly and its Prime Minister wanting to put monetary tightening on hold to solidify an economic expansion despite the fact that inflation has been running on the hot side. And in the United States, political pressures continue to tear at the political fabric, and it faces midterm elections at the end of the year; both parties are preparing for and posturing for that event. The year ahead could prove to be interesting in either a desirable or an undesirable way - stay tuned.

Europe

European Retail Sales Dither While Auto Registrations Weaken

Andrew Cates

**Geopolitical risk**
The escalation in Middle East tensions has already been reflected in a sharp rise in the Caldara–Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index, shown in the first chart below. This index—based on the frequency of geopolitical risk references in major international newspapers—has jumped to levels typically associated with periods of acute international tension. For the global economy, the immediate concern is less the direct economic damage and more the uncertainty generated by the conflict. The Middle East remains central to the global energy system, and concerns over potential disruption to oil infrastructure or shipping routes—particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—have already contributed to a sharp rise in energy prices, with knock-on effects for financial markets and the broader outlook for global growth.

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**The Strait of Hormuz**
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is highlighted in the next chart below, which shows tanker transit calls through the strait. After rising through February, tanker movements have dropped sharply in the wake of the recent escalation in regional tensions. This narrow maritime corridor is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, with roughly a fifth of global oil supply and a large share of LNG exports passing through it each day. But its importance extends beyond hydrocarbons: the Gulf is also a major exporter of petrochemicals and fertilizers such as ammonia and urea, key inputs for global agriculture. Any sustained disruption to traffic through Hormuz would therefore have implications not only for energy markets but also for broader global supply chains.

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**Oil and Natural Gas**
As noted, the sensitivity of energy markets to developments in the Gulf has been evident in the behaviour of both oil and gas prices. The next chart below shows a sharp move higher in Brent crude alongside a pronounced spike in natural gas futures in recent days. While oil understandably attracts most of the attention given the volume that transits through the Strait of Hormuz, natural gas is equally important from a macroeconomic perspective. The Gulf region is a major supplier of LNG to Europe and Asia, and disruptions to shipping routes or regional infrastructure can quickly tighten global gas markets. For Europe in particular—still structurally more exposed to imported LNG following the loss of Russian pipeline supply—higher gas prices feed directly into electricity costs, industrial input prices and household energy bills. In short, the latest escalation is not simply an oil story; it is an energy story more broadly, with implications for inflation, real incomes and growth across the global economy.

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**Global shipping costs and supply chain pressures**
Beyond energy markets, and as also noted above, developments in the Middle East also have the potential to reverberate through global trade and supply chains. The next chart below illustrates this link by comparing the Baltic Exchange Panamax Index—a key benchmark for dry bulk shipping costs—with the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. The Panamax index tracks freight rates for vessels typically used to transport bulk commodities such as grains, coal and fertilizers, cargoes that frequently move through or originate from the Gulf region. As such, it provides a useful barometer of shipping conditions that are particularly relevant for the Middle East. Historically, spikes in shipping costs have tended to coincide with periods of heightened supply chain stress, as seen most clearly during the pandemic. Should tensions in the region more forcefully disrupt maritime traffic or insurance conditions for vessels operating near the Strait of Hormuz, freight rates could rise again, potentially amplifying broader supply chain pressures and adding another layer of uncertainty to the global economic outlook.

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**Energy prices and inflation**
Developments in energy markets also matter because of their close connection with inflation dynamics and monetary policy. The fifth chart below compares year-on-year changes in Brent crude oil prices with the Citigroup Global Inflation Surprise Index, which measures whether inflation outcomes are coming in above or below economists’ expectations. Historically, periods of sharply rising oil prices have often coincided with upside inflation surprises, most notably during the pandemic recovery when energy prices surged and global inflation pressures intensified. This relationship highlights why events in the Middle East are being watched so closely by policymakers. A sustained rise in energy prices would risk complicating the disinflation process that many central banks have been trying to engineer. In turn, this could delay or limit the scope for interest rate cuts and tighten financial conditions more broadly, adding another potential headwind to the global economic outlook.

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**Natural gas and electricity generation**
The importance of natural gas to the global economy is further illustrated in the final chart, which shows global per capita electricity generation by source. While renewable energy has expanded rapidly in recent years, fossil fuels continue to play a dominant role in meeting rising electricity demand. In particular, natural gas has become an increasingly important component of the global power mix, reflecting its flexibility, relatively lower carbon intensity compared with coal and oil, and its ability to provide reliable baseload and balancing power. Oil, by contrast, now plays only a very limited role in electricity generation in most economies. This backdrop is especially relevant given the rapid expansion of energy demand associated with artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. Data centres, cloud computing networks and the broader digital economy require vast and reliable supplies of electricity. While renewables are likely to account for a growing share of new capacity, natural gas is expected to remain a critical bridging fuel in ensuring system stability and meeting peak demand. As a result, disruptions to global energy markets—particularly those affecting natural gas and LNG flows from the Middle East—could have implications that extend well beyond traditional energy markets, potentially affecting the pace at which new digital and AI-related infrastructure can be deployed.

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated sharply following joint air strikes by Israel and the United States on strategic targets in Iran. While the ultimate trajectory of the conflict remains highly uncertain, the episode highlights the potential for geopolitical shocks to ripple through multiple channels of the global economy—from energy markets and shipping routes to supply chains, inflation dynamics and monetary policy. In this week’s _Charts of the Week_, we present six charts that illustrate some of the key issues, implications and points to watch, including movements in geopolitical risk (chart 1), shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz (chart 2), energy prices (chart 3), global supply chain pressures (chart 4), inflation surprises (chart 5) and the evolving structure of global electricity generation (chart 6). Together they provide a framework for thinking about how events in the region could shape the outlook for the world economy in the months ahead.

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Charts of the Week: Shockwaves from the Gulf

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The services index published by the Institute for Supply Management rose 2.3 index points in February to 56.1, signaling solid expansion in the service sectors of the economy. February marked the 20th consecutive month with a reading above the 50 threshold (which separates expansion from contraction), and it was the firmest reading since mid-2022. The increase in the index was broadly based, as three of the four components contributed positively, and all were above the 50 threshold.

The supplier delivery index was the only component that did not boost the headline measure, and its monthly change was minuscule (off 0.3 index point to 53.9). The dip, and the relatively low reading on this measure, could be viewed in a positive light, as the new information suggests that supply-chain problems are not an issue at this time.

The new orders index made the largest contribution to the advance in the headline measure, jumping 5.5 points to 58.6, moving to the upper end of the range of the past few years. With order flows firm, business activity remained brisk, as this component rose 2.5 points to 59.9. Business activity recovered quickly from the pandemic and has been above 50 since June 2020. The latest reading was in the upper portion of the range in place since 2022. The employment index was a bit of a laggard, as it rose only 1.5 points, and its level of 51.8 was light relative to the other components. Still, the latest reading was encouraging, as it marked the third consecutive month above 50, representing a break from the sub-50 results that were common in 2024 and 2025.

The prices index, which is not a component of the headline index, fell 3.6 points to 63.0. The elevated level is a concern, but it is not a shocking result, as this measure runs high relative to the other indexes in this report. Observations above 70 have occurred several times in years past, and the index was above 80 for most months during the inflation burst of 2021-22. Although still elevated, the prices index seems to be easing, as February marked the third decline in the past four months, and the measure is now noticeably shy of the 69.5 reading in October of last year.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector; below 50 suggests contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Headline index for February jumped to a multi-year high.
- Three of the four components contributed positively.
- The prices index, although still elevated, eased.

ISM Services: Favorable News from Every Perspective

Winnie Tapasanun

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U.S. nonfarm private sector payrolls rose a larger-than-expected 63,000 (0.2% y/y) in February after increases of 11,000 in January (+22,000 initially) and 37,000 in December (unrevised), according to the ADP National Employment Report. February’s m/m gain was the biggest since November. The three-month average change was +37,000 in February, smaller than +41,000 in January and +44,000 in December. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 43,000 increase in February.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) climbed a solid 60,000 (0.5% y/y) in February—the largest m/m rise in four months—following a modest 1,000 increase in January (no change initially), with employment in very small firms (1-19 employees) up 58,000, the strongest m/m gain since October, and employment in small firms (20-49 employees) up 2,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) fell 7,000 (-0.5% y/y) in February, the first m/m fall in three months, after a 29,000 rise in January (+41,000 initially). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rebounded 10,000 (1.0% y/y), the eighth m/m increase in nine months, following a 19,000 January drop (-18,000 initially).

Service-producing jobs advanced 47,000 (0.4% y/y) in February after an 11,000 gain in January (+21,000 initially), marking the ninth straight m/m increase and the largest in three months. February’s rise was led by education & health services (+58,000), followed by information (+11,000), other services (+6,000), financial activities (+2,000), and leisure & hospitality (+1,000). To the downside, m/m employment fell in professional & business services (-30,000) and trade, transportation & utilities (-1,000).

Goods-producing employment rose 16,000 (-0.5% y/y) in February, the first m/m rise in 10 months, after no change in January (+1,000 initially). February’s gain was driven by construction (+19,000) and natural resources & mining (+2,000), while manufacturing (-5,000) continued to decline.

By region, nonfarm private payroll employment increased m/m in the South (+37,000; +0.3% y/y), West (+19,000; +0.3% y/y), and Northeast (+11,000; +0.5% y/y). In contrast, employment fell m/m in the Midwest (-4,000; -0.1% y/y).

Wage growth for job changers eased to a three-month-low 6.3% y/y in February from 6.4% y/y in January, remaining far below a high of 16.1% in April 2022. Wage growth for job stayers held steady at 4.5% y/y in February, holding in a narrow 4.4%-4.5% range since April 2025. Pay growth also remained steady in major industries, including financial activities (5.2% y/y), construction (4.7% y/y), professional & business services (4.3% y/y), and other services (4.1% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Private payrolls +63K, eighth straight m/m gain and largest in three months.
- Hiring increase is driven by small businesses (+60K, strongest in four months).
- Service-sector jobs up (+47K), led by education & health svs. (+58K) and information (+11K).
- Goods-producing jobs up (+16K), driven by construction (+19K).
- Wage growth eases y/y for job changers (6.3%) but steady for job stayers (4.5%).

U.S. ADP Private Employment Growth Accelerates in February, Exceeding Expectations

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The composite PMIs showed modest increases on their full sample average and a modest step-back in the full sample median calculation in February. However, the number of areas below 50 fell to 4 in February; that count was only 5 in January, and there were none showing declines in December, so there's a great sense of progress in place. The proportion of reporters in February that were getting worse was only 40%, compared to 44% in January and 76% in December. So there has been a change for the better in terms of the proportion of these 25 reporters who are registering better growth month to month in the last two months, in particular.

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**U.S. data are a curve ball to this month’s readings**
However, the United States, the largest economy globally, also issued a competitor report in the last few days, the ISM. Its manufacturing sector reading made a small step-back in February but is still on a rising trend. The U.S. ISM services index was up strongly in February, a very different reading from that in the S&P (see the comparisons below).

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**S&P Global data**
Beyond the monthly data, the sequential data show the full-sample averages getting better from 12 months to 6 months and then slightly weaker from 6 months to 3 months. However, the all-sample median shows an improvement in 6 months compared to 12 months, and another small improvement in 3 months compared to 6 months.

The bottom line on this is that there's a lot of mixed performance, and conditions are broadly in flux; in terms of better or worse, overall conditions are not particularly changed from 12 months to 6 months to 3 months. The monthly data show a better sense that there's progress underway, and this is perhaps a very interesting phenomenon, especially because these are data through February, before the attack on Iran was consummated. 

**War Intrudes on Economics**
The execution of war generally isn’t good for economies; however, in this case, the strike was quick, and although there had been a buildup in U.S. armaments—which, in some sense, meant it was expected—the specific timing of the attack was a surprise. It caught Iran completely off guard and made the strike exceptionally successful. Since Iran had lost most of its air cover and its previous war with Israel, its facilities were pretty well laid bare and very quickly the U.S. and Israel claimed air superiority. They have used that to continue to advance their attacks on strategic targets in an effort to achieve the results that the U.S. has said it wants which are (1) to stop Iran's nuclear program, (2) to stop its development of long and intermediate range missiles, and (3) to stop Iran in its role as a sponsor of terror in the Middle East. It may well be that none of these objectives can really be achieved by an air war, and it's not clear that there are any plans to put boots on the ground. However, the air attacks are also aimed at degrading the hold of the ruling party over its citizenry, making it possible for them to rise up and replace the government with one of their choice.

**An Untried Strategy**
This strategy is, as far as I can tell, completely untested. In the past, when a major power interfered in the affairs of a country, it would generally sweep in with the ground attack, make sure that the existing government was fragmented, and basically install the government of their choice even though they would also characterize it as ‘the government of the people.’ This does not seem to be the strategy this time, and it follows more or less the script that the U.S. put in place for Venezuela, where it seized the president who had been sought for various crimes in America and pulled him out of the country. After a brief attack that was necessary to make that capture successful, the U.S. simply left Venezuela behind to settle its own affairs.

**Market impact is muted**
As a result of this unusual tactic, we see some increase in oil prices, but they have not spiked tremendously, and the U.S. is currently offering to provide protection for ships that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Newspapers report how there is a broadening of the conflict, but I don't see it that way, because it's hard to imagine a war of this nature in the Middle East that wouldn't draw most of the Middle East participants into it as at least collateral damage. What we are seeing is that Iran is desperately trying to shoot at any of its Arab neighbors in an effort to harm them and get them to put pressure on the U.S. to stop its attack. Most recently, Iran launched an ‘attempted attack’ on Turkey, which is a NATO member. But there doesn't seem to be much chance that the actual hostilities are spilling out of the Middle East or that Iran has much of a reach to do more than what it's been doing; its capabilities seem to be narrowing every single day.

**Where the PMI Data Stand**
The PMI data for February also showed that only nine of the twenty-five members have queue percentile standings of their composite indexes that are below the 50% mark, indicating there was economic contraction in play. Quite a number of countries are showing queue percentile standings of their composite PMIs that are above their 70th percentiles. And we want to take these totals with a grain of salt partly because the U.S. has just reported out such strong data.

**Summing up**
On balance, it appears that the war being conducted in Iran has caught the global economy on a bit of an economic upswing, and we'll have to see to what extent that is affected or interrupted by the conduct of war, especially since this combat appears to be so well contained. A number of analysts talk about how this war is increasing uncertainty in the area. In my opinion, this is a knee-jerk improper reading of the situation. It seems to me that a successful attack that successfully reduces the impact of Iran in the Middle East as a sponsor of terror, as the developer of a nuclear program, and as a possessor of long range and intermediate range missiles—and that creates the potential for a different civilian government to take over—has actually increased certainty - and the prospect of peace - quite a lot. The view that uncertainty has been elevated is an extremely short-term view that I think will quickly be dominated by the notion that uncertainty has actually been reduced and that world conditions have been improved.

S&P Composite PMIs Show Recovery Progresses

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Inflation in the European Monetary Union picked up in February, ahead of the beginning of new hostilities in the Middle East. The increase in the harmonized index of consumer prices moved up to 0.3% in February from 0.1% to January. Progression on the annual rate of price increase moved up to 1.9% over 12 months, to a 2.1% annual rate over six months, and to a 2.4% annual rate over three months.

This is a modest acceleration and not something to get particularly excited about, except that with new hostilities in the Middle East, oil prices have begun to rise significantly, and there will be apprehension about how much more there is to come. However, the initial oil price reaction was muted, and the follow-up price reaction has also been relatively muted so these will translate into a nontrivial impact on inflation and in the harmonized index for consumer prices in the monetary union, as well as in the key prices watched by central banks globally.

**Big Four Economies**
The Big Four economies in the monetary union produced scattered results in February. Germany produced no increase in its February HICP. The HICP for France jumped by 0.4% month-to-month. Spain showed an increase of 0.2%; Italy reported an outsized increase of 0.7% in February. Still, the January and February data for this group of countries show prices mostly very well behaved. If we simply multiply these 12 increases (four countries over three months) together we get prices rising at a 2.2% annual rate across all the countries over the three months. That is close to target. 

**Annual and Sequential Big Four Inflation**
Inflation for the Big Four economies ranges from a top pace of 2.4% in Spain to the lowest pace of 1.1% in France with Italy's 1.6% and Germany's on-target 2% making up middle cases. Even the biggest price increase from Spain at 2.4% is not particularly frightening. Inside of 12 months looking at the six- and 3-month trends, Germany's trends move up to 2.6% over six months and then down to 1.2%. France's 6-month inflation remains at 1.1% over six months but then moves up to a 1.9% annual rate over three months. Italy's 12-month pace of 1.6% holds in place over six months, but then the 3-month inflation rate jumps to a 4.1% annual rate. For Spain, the 2.4% 12 month rate rises to a 3% annual rate over six months and then falls sharply to a 1.6% annual rate over three months.

**Headline vs. Core Inflation**
Headline inflation rates, of course, are mercurial because of the impact of oil prices on them. Two early reporters gave us core inflation or ex-energy inflation rates. In the case of Spain, core inflation is stuck at 2.7% on all horizons. Germany's index excluding energy is at 2.4% over 12 months, but then Germany’s six-month pace falls to 2.2%, and its three-month pace falls again to 1.7%. In the case of Germany, 12-month ex-energy inflation is mildly acceptable, but progressing to the three-month horizon, the inflation rate drops back well into place. For Spain, the 2.7% 12-month inflation rate persists across all horizons and is unacceptably high.

**Longer Trends**
Inflation is generally behaving and riding downtrends in the monetary union, with 12- month inflation generally lower than 12-month inflation was a year ago. That is true for all the major metrics in the table except two. The first exception is France when the 12-month inflation rate is 1.1% compared to 0.9% over 12 months a year ago (still, obviously very well behaved). In the case of Spain, core inflation moves up to 2.7% over 12 months after being at 2.2% just a year ago.

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**Events**
The inflation data this month show results we would more or less take in stride if it weren't for conflicts in the Middle East that are having a fresh upward effect on energy prices. We expect that to be reflected in next month’s inflation reports. Next month’s anticipated bad reaction will stack on top of this month when results came in worse than expected. For the most part, headline inflation is very close to its mark; however, core inflation shows signs of being stubborn and stuck at levels that are either slightly or more decidedly too high. This, of course, is a phenomenon we see in the United States with inflation stuck close to the 3% level, a percentage point above the Fed’s target. Europe’s situation is not unique.

**Oil and War: A Nasty Combination**
Since we're mostly talking about oil, it's highly likely that the European Central Bank is not going to be very concerned about these numbers because they're coming out of a state of warfare, and because, generally speaking, the inflation numbers are relatively close to target. Moreover, GDP growth rates right now are not particularly impressive. Unemployment rates are low across the euro area despite weak growth; there's no problem with the employment side of the equation. Monetary policy in an environment like this is going to be the product of the discretion of central bankers who are going to show us what they're worried about most and whether they're worried about disturbing the already weak rate of growth in their economy. Or are they going to be more committed to getting inflation down to target, a target they've been at least mildly missing for some time? Having war as the active ingredient in the inflation mix may be the deciding factor to keep the central bank on the sidelines. However, central bankers also know that ignoring an upturn in inflation whether it's caused by commodity prices, oil or something else is not a recipe for good monetary policy. For that reason, markets should be on alert in the coming months.

Inflation in Europe Picks Up – Ahead of Hostilities

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Existing home sales rose 1.7% m/m (-1.4% y/y) to 4.09 million units (SAAR) in February, the second m/m rise in three months, following an upwardly revised 5.9% decline to 4.02 million in January (previously -8.4%; 3.91 mil.), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected February sales of 3.90 million units. Despite the m/m rebound, sales remained 36.4% below a high of 6.43 million in January 2022 and 38.0% below a peak of 6.60 million in January 2021. February’s recovery coincided with a drop in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.05% in February, the lowest since August 2022, after declining to 6.11% in January, according to Freddie Mac. The sales figures are based on closings of sales contracts signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales increased 2.5% (-1.1% y/y) to 3.73 million units in February, the second m/m gain in three months, after a 6.2% drop to 3.64 million in January. Sales of condos and co-ops fell 5.3% (-5.3% y/y) to 360,000 after a 2.6% January decline to 380,000, marking the third m/m fall in four months and the lowest level since May 2025.

By region, February existing home sales mostly increased m/m. Sales in the West jumped 8.2% (-1.3% y/y) to a one-year-high 790,000 in February, reversing a 6.4% decrease in January. Sales in the South rose 1.6% (0.5% y/y) to 1.89 million after a 6.5% January drop. Sales in the Midwest grew 1.1% (-4.1% y/y) to 940,000 following a 6.1% January fall. These three regions posted the second m/m increase in three months. Sales in the Northeast, however, fell 6.0% (-4.1% y/y) to 470,000, the lowest level since October 2024, following a 2.0% January decline and two consecutive m/m increases. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 46.2% of total U.S. existing home sales.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) rose 0.8% (0.3% y/y) to $398,000 in February, the first m/m rise in four months, after a 2.5% decline to $395,000 in January ($396,800 initially). Prices remained 8.0% below a high of $432,700 in June 2025. The median price of an existing single-family home, up for the first time since October, increased 0.9% (0.2% y/y) to $401,800 in February after a 2.8% decline to $398,200 in January (the lowest level since January 2025). The median price of condos and co-ops fell 1.9% (+0.9% y/y) to a one-year-low $358,100, the first m/m fall since November, following a 1.1% January increase to $365,000. Regionally, overall prices rebounded m/m in the West (+3.0%; -1.9% y/y), South (+1.7%; +0.2% y/y), and Midwest (+1.3%; +2.3% y/y) in February, but fell m/m in the Northeast (-4.8%; +3.3% y/y).

Inventories of homes for sale increased for the second successive month in February. The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 2.4% (4.9% y/y) to 1.29 million units, the highest level since November, following a 2.4% January rise to 1.26 million and three straight m/m declines. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) held at 3.8 months in February and January after falling to 3.5 months in December (the lowest since January 2025). The recent high of 4.6 months was in August 2025, while a record low in supply of 1.6 months was in January 2022.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- February sales +1.7% to 4.09 mil.; -1.4% y/y, fourth straight y/y decline.
- Sales m/m up in the West (8.2%), South (1.6%), and Midwest (1.1%), but down in the Northeast (-6.0%).
- Median sales price +0.8% (+0.3% y/y) to $398,000, first m/m increase since October.
- Unsold inventory +2.4% (+4.9% y/y) to three-month-high 1.29 mil. units; 3.8 months' supply.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Rebound in February

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