Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

US retail sales accelerate even as consumers remain gloomy

Sandy Batten

260716V8.jpg

260716W8.jpg

Total retail sales rose a slightly smaller-than-expected 0.2% m/m (6.7% y/y) in June following an upwardly revised 1.0% monthly gain in May (previously +0.9% m/m), according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.3% m/m gain. For all of Q2, total sales were up 2.9% q/q versus a 1.3% quarterly gain in Q1. Excluding autos, other sales fell 0.2% m/m (+6.9% y/y) in June after an upwardly revised 1.0% m/m increase in May (previously +0.8% m/m). Expectations were for an unchanged reading in June. For all of Q2, ex-auto sales were up 3.2% q/q versus 1.5% in Q1.

Retail gasoline prices fell markedly in June following the announced MoU between the US and Iran. Accordingly, gasoline sales plummeted 5.3% m/m, the first monthly decline since January, thereby markedly restraining total sales. Sales excluding gasoline were up a solid 0.7% m/m (5.7% y/y) in June following a 0.9% monthly increase in May. For all of Q2, ex-gasoline sales rose 2.1% q/q, up from 1.1% in Q1.

The control group of sales (total sales excluding food services, autos, gasoline and building materials that the BEA uses to construct PCE in the national accounts) posted another solid increase in June, rising 0.5% m/m (6.4% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.8% monthly increase in May (previously 0.7% m/m). For all of Q2, control-group sales rose 2.2% (9.2% annualized) versus a 1.4% quarterly rise in Q1, auguring a Q2 pickup in consumer spending in the national accounts.

Sales across major sectors were mixed in June. Auto sales added to the May rebound with a 1.9% m/m jump in June on top of a 1.1% monthly increase in May. The 1.7% q/q rise in auto sales in Q2 was the strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2024. Electronic and appliance store sales rose 0.8% m/m in June, more than offsetting a 0.2% m/m decline in May. Sales at sporting goods, hobby and music stores jumped 1.3% m/m in June for a strong 4.8% quarterly gain in Q2, the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2021. Sales of nonstore retailers continue their stronger performance rising 1.9% m/m on top of a 1.4% monthly increase in May and a 1.5% monthly gain in April. Over the first six months of this year, nonstore retail sales have risen 9.6% (20.1% annualized).

By contrast, food and beverage store sales fell 0.2% m/m in June, the first monthly decline in four months. Sales at health and personal care stores declined 0.8% m/m, their second monthly decline in the past three months. Clothing sales fell 0.3% m/m in June. And miscellaneous store sales fell 0.3% m/m, the third monthly decline in the past four months. Sales at food services and drinking places, a popular indicator of discretionary spending, edged up only 0.1% m/m in June, down markedly from a 1.2% monthly gain in May and a 1.0% increase in April. And general merchandise store sales edged up 0.1% m/m in June.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

260716X8.jpg

260716Y8.jpg

- Total sales increased 0.2% m/m in June, slightly below expectations, with an upward revision to May.
- Gasoline sales plunged 5.3% m/m, reflecting lower prices.
- Excluding gasoline sales, remaining sales rose a solid 0.7% m/m in June after a 0.9% monthly gain in May.
- Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.5% m/m in June and were up 9.2% at an annual rate in Q2 from Q1.

U.S. Retail Sales in June Slowed by Drop in Gasoline Sales

Winnie Tapasanun

260716N3.jpg

260716O3.jpg

The Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo fell 5.6% m/m (+3.0% y/y) to a slightly lower-than-expected 34 in July following a 2.7% decrease to 36 in June (initially -5.4%; 35) and an 8.8% increase to 37 in May (unrevised). July marked the third m/m decline in four months and a three-month low. A reading of 35 had been expected in the INFORMA Global Markets survey. The HMI had remained below the breakeven 50 level since May 2024. The July index, while slightly above 33 in July 2025, was 39.3% below a high of 56 in July 2023 and 62.2% below a record-high 90 in November 2020.

Notably, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.55% in the July 16 week—the highest since the week of August 28, 2025—from 6.49% in the July 9 week, compared to 6.49% during all of June, according to Freddie Mac. The rate was above its recent low of 5.98% in the February 26 week but below a high of 7.22% in the week of May 2, 2024 and a peak of 7.79% in the week of October 26, 2023.

All three HMI components declined this month. The index of present single-family sales conditions fell 2.6% (+2.8% y/y) to 37 in July, the third m/m fall in four months, after a 5.0% decrease to 38 in June. The index was 40.3% below a high of 62 in July 2023 and 61.5% below a record-high 96 in November 2020. The index of expected single-family sales for the next six months slid 4.4% (0.0% y/y) to 43 in July after being unchanged m/m at 45 in June. The index was 34.8% below a high of 66 in December 2024 and 51.7% below a peak of 89 in November 2020. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers dropped 8.0% (+15.0% y/y) to 23 in July after holding steady m/m at 25 in June. The index was 42.5% below a high of 40 in July 2023 and 70.1% below a record-high 77 in November 2020. These three HMI components posted their lowest levels since April.

By region, the HMIs were down m/m in the Northeast and West this month, while up in the Midwest and flat in the South. The index for the Northeast plunged 18.0% (-14.6% y/y) to 41 in July, the first m/m decline since April and a three-month low, following a 13.6% advance to 50 in June. The index for the West fell 7.4% (0.0% y/y) to 25, the lowest level since July 2025, after registering at 27 in June and May. In contrast, the index for the Midwest rose 2.2% (7.0% y/y) to 46, the highest level since December, after holding at 45 in June and May. Meanwhile, the index for the South was unchanged at 31 (+6.9% y/y) in July and June following a 5.9% rebound to 36 in May.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low". The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The regional indexes run back to December 2004.

These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The Informa Global Markets survey is in Haver's **MMSAMER** database.

260716P3.jpg

260716Q3.jpg

- HMI weakens m/m in July, indicating most builders remain pessimistic about the current and near-term housing outlook.
- All three HMI components down, w/ the steepest m/m drop in prospective buyer traffic (-8.0%).
- Mixed regional performance m/m: down in the Northeast (-18.0%) and West (-7.4%); up in the Midwest (+2.2%); flat in the South.

U.S. Housing Market Index Falls in July; Third M/M Decline in Four Months

260716N2.jpg

260716O2.jpg

The Current Activity Diffusion Index from the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia jumped to 41.4 in July, its highest reading since November 2021, from 10.3 in June. The survey covers the third Federal Reserve District. A reading of 12.0 for July was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. More than 53% of respondents reported increases (up from 32% last month), far exceeding the 12% reporting decreases (down from 22%); 24% of respondents reported no change in current activity (down from 45%). Survey responses were collected from July 6 to July 13.

The headline index is the answer to just one question: whether activity increased, decreased or was unchanged from the previous month. Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from the five key components using the methodology employed to construct the national ISM index. This figure rose to 58.1 in July, the highest reading in a year and a half, from 53.1 in June and well above the critical 50 value that separates contraction from expansion.

For the component indexes, the new orders index rose to 37.0 in July, a nearly five-year high, from 27.3 in June with 50.4% of respondents reporting an increase in orders. The shipments index jumped to 33.7 in July from 14.9 in June with 44.7% of respondents reporting an increase. Delivery times lengthened meaningfully to 9.6 in July from -2.6 in June and -10.4 in May, pointing to incipient supply chain problems stemming from the escalated US-Iran conflict. Employment indicators strengthened in July with the number of employees index rising to 10.0, the highest reading since last December, from 7.9 in June. The average workweek index jumped to 14.0 in July from -6.5 in June.

Respondents continued to report elevated prices, both paid and received. The prices paid index edged up to 53.9 in July from 53.2 in June with 53.9% of respondents reporting paying higher input prices and none reporting a decrease. The prices received index rose to 27.4 in July from 20.3 in July but was still below the 33.5 reading in April just after the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Twenty-seven percent of respondents reported receiving higher prices while none reported receiving lower prices.

The survey’s broad indicators for future activity continued to point to expectations for growth over the next six months, although readings moderated. The diffusion index for future general activity fell 16 points this month to 34.4. The future new orders index fell 26 points to 35.1, and the future shipments index decreased 21 points to 39.3. The firms continue to expect increases in employment over the next six months, but the future employment index inched down 1 point to 29.5. Both future price indexes declined but remained above their long-run averages: The future prices paid index moved down from 63.2 to 56.7, and the future prices received index dropped 26 points to 41.4. The index for future capital expenditures remained elevated but fell 11 points to 30.1.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The indexes range from -100 to +100 with positive values indicating an increase in activity. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

260716P2.jpg

260716Q2.jpg

- The headline index jumped to 41.4 in July, much larger than expected and the highest reading since November 2021.
- The outsized increase was widespread across components with the ISM-adjusted index rising to 58.1, its highest reading since January 2025.
- Prices remained elevated but were little changed in July from June.
- Delivery times lengthened meaningfully, indicating some incipient supply chain problems.
- The survey’s broad indicators for future activity continued to suggest expectations for growth over the next six months, although most readings fell meaningfully.


U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in July

Robert Brusca

260716E.jpg

**Global trade volumes continue to expand**
Despite military actions around various geopolitical hotspots, war zones, and other geopolitical tensions, plus the imposition of tariffs, World Trade volumes in dry goods have continued to expand significantly since early 2025.

Exports from the European monetary Union have grown over the past year by 5.5%, while imports have surged ahead at a 14.3% annual rate. The growth in trade is driven mostly by nonmanufactured goods, and this is largely a pricing effect as inflation has remained high and oil prices during this period have risen sharply.

**The trade balance and its dynamics**
The euro area trade balance in May slipped into a deficit of €4.97 billion after having a surplus of only €836 million in April. Over the last 12 months, the surplus averaged €5.7 billion per month. We can build up the trade balance several different ways to explain it. One way to understand it is that there are certain tensions between manufactured and nonmanufactured goods. The balance on manufactured goods trade 12 months ago was an average €36 billion over the previous 12 months, whereas it's currently showing a 12-month average that has fallen to a €26 billion surplus. However, all of the trend changes appear to have occurred between a year ago and earlier this past year, since the 12-month, six-month, and three-month averages, as well as the stand-alone reading for May, show manufacturing surpluses in the neighborhood of €25 billion. For nonmanufactured goods, 12 months ago the average monthly deficit was €22.8 billion, whereas over the last 12 months the average has been about €20.2 billion; that's a slightly smaller deficit. The sequential nonmanufacturing deficit balance, however, crept up through the course of the last 12 months, and in May it registered a €30.95 billion deficit. Erosion in the deficit position of the euro area is significantly based on an increased deficit in nonmanufactured goods.

Aggregate trade flows show exports accelerating from 12-months to six-months to three-months, with the same progression for imports, except that the import growth rates are substantially higher than for exports. Exports of manufactured goods accelerate from 12-months to six-months to three-months, but the exports of nonmanufactured goods are stronger and accelerate much more on that same timeline. Imports show manufactured goods in a relatively weak acceleration mode from 12-months to three-months as well. For nonmanufactured goods, the import growth rates post incredible results; they're extremely strong. This, of course, is mostly a pricing effect reflecting the impact of oil prices.

The table includes a few bilateral comparisons. Germany shows accelerating imports, and while there's steady growth in exports, they're not accelerating the same as imports. For France, exports accelerate quite strongly while imports accelerated, but with much less vigor. Much of this has to do with France’s greater reliance on nuclear power as France gets about 65% or more of its electricity from nuclear energy compared to only 11% for Germany, which has cut back and is transitioning away from nuclear power, making it more dependence on other energy sources and boosting energy imports. U.K. exports and imports are both showing growth, but there is no clear trend.

The table also presents export data for five European nations. Exports accelerate for each of them except for Italy, where exports are in a markedly different and decelerating pattern.

On balance, trade trends are in flux although manufacturing trends seem to be quite stable. Volatile oil and other commodity prices are causing severe swings in trade flows across Europe and certainly globally as well. With the situation in the Strait of Hormuz still unresolved, the outlook for trade will continue to expect volatility.

260716.jpg

Europe

EMU Trade Balance Swings to Deficit in May

260715J5.jpg

260715K5.jpg

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.3% m/m (+5.5% y/y) in June following a downwardly revised 0.6% (6.0%y/y) gain in May (previously 1.1% m/m, 6.5% y/y) according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This was the first monthly decline in the headline index since August 2025 and the largest decline since April 2025. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected an unchanged reading in June. Producer prices excluding food, energy and trade services edged up 0.1% m/m (+5.1% y/y) in June after having jumped 0.8% m/m (5.1% y/y) in May. The PPI excluding food and energy (the previous core index) rose 0.2% m/m (4.7% y/y) in June versus a 0.1% m/m (4.6% y/y) increase in May. A 0.1% m/m increase was expected.

The June decline in the index for final demand was attributable to a 1.4% m/m decline (+7.9% y/y) in prices for final demand goods following a 2.3% monthly rise in May. The index for final demand services increased 0.2% m/m (4.6% y/y) in June after a 0.1% monthly decline in May.

The 1.4% m/m decline in final demand goods prices was the largest since July 2022. Leading the decline in June, prices for final demand energy dropped 6.4% m/m. A 12.0% m/m decline in gasoline prices accounted for two-thirds of the decline in final demand goods prices in June. The index for final demand foods moved down 0.6% m/m, the first monthly decline in three months. Conversely, prices for final demand goods less food and energy increased 0.2% m/m (+5.1% y/y). The indexes for diesel fuel, jet fuel, fresh vegetables (except potatoes), crude petroleum, and thermoplastic resins and materials fell. In contrast, prices for plastic products advanced 1.6% m/m. The indexes for residential electric power and for potatoes also increased.

The index for final demand services rose 0.2% m/m (4.6% y/y) in June after falling 0.1% m/m in May. Over 60% of the advance in June can be attributed to margins for final demand trade services, which moved up 0.4% m/m after a 2.3% m/m decline in May. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing increased 0.1% m/m. Conversely, the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services declined 0.1% m/m. The indexes for securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice; furniture retailing; apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing; loan services (partial); and inpatient care rose. In contrast, margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling declined 8.4%. The indexes for food and alcohol wholesaling and for deposit services (partial) also fell.

Final demand construction costs edged up 0.1% m/m (3.5% y/y) in June, the same monthly increase as in May. Construction prices for private capital investment also edged up 0.1% (3.4% y/y) in June, the same monthly gain as in May.

Prices for intermediate demand processed goods fell 1.2% m/m (+11.1% y/y) in June, the first monthly decline since October 2025 and the largest monthly decline since December 2022. Processed energy goods prices slumped 7.3% m/m, the first monthly decline since January. Processed foods prices edged up 0.1% m/m following a 0.6% m/m jump in May. Prices of processed goods excluding foods and energy rose 0.6% m/m, down markedly from 1.7% monthly gains in both April and May.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260715L5.jpg

260715M5.jpg

- Led by a 6.4% m/m decline in energy prices, the PPI for final demand fell 0.3% m/m in June.
- Goods prices fell 1.4% m/m, the first monthly decline since January, while services prices rose 0.2% m/m.
- Excluding food, energy and trade margins, the new core measure edged up 0.1% m/m while the old core (excluding just food and energy) rose 0.2% m/m in June.

U.S. Producer Prices Fell in June

260715J53.jpg

260715K53.jpg

The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to a higher-than-expected 15.6 in July following a 13.9-point drop to 5.7 in June, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. A reading of 8.6 for July had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The positive July figure indicated that the business activity in New York State expanded for the fourth consecutive month and at a faster pace; it was a sharp improvement from 3.1 in July 2025 and a low of -29.7 in January 2024, though still below its most recent high of 19.6 in May and a high of 16.8 in November 2024. The percentage of respondents reporting an increase in general business conditions was 39.0% in July, up from 28.9% in June; the percentage reporting a decrease was 23.4%, up from June’s 23.2%. The latest survey was conducted between July 2 and July 10.

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity and is not calculated from the components. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. This calculated index increased to 57.5 in July following a 4.6-point decline to 53.4 in June, representing the seventh straight expansion; it was modestly up from 54.1 in July 2025 and well above a low of 43.0 in January 2024. The index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories, with equal weights (20% each).

In the latest survey, the new orders index jumped to 22.2 in July after a 19.2-point drop to 3.5 in June, marking the seventh consecutive expansion and a sharp improvement from a low of -30.7 in January 2024. The shipments index advanced to 24.4 in July, the highest level since April 2022, following a 10.3-point decrease to 8.6 in June; it was well above a low of -21.7 in April 2024. The unfilled orders index held at 5.0 in July and June after 4.9 in May, indicating unfilled orders expanded for the sixth straight month; the index reached its recent high of 10.8 in March and a low of -24.2 in January 2024. The inventories index increased to 4.0 in July following a 9.7-point decline to 0.0 in June, signaling inventories rose slightly this month after being unchanged. Meanwhile, the delivery times index rose to 13.0 in July from 11.9 in June, with 20.0% of respondents reporting longer delivery times and 7.0% reporting shorter times, indicating that delivery times continued to lengthen.

On the labor front, the number of employees index rose to 11.4 in July after a 1.3-point rebound to 9.6 in June, indicating that employment expanded for the sixth successive month and reached its highest level since December 2022. The index remained well above a low of -9.3 in December 2023 but below a peak of 24.9 in February 2022. In July, a higher 20.9% of respondents reported an increase in employment while 9.6% reported a decline. The average workweek index fell to 2.8 in July from 5.1 in June, remaining positive for the sixth straight month, albeit at a four-month low.

Inflation pressures eased in July but remained elevated. The prices paid index fell to 52.3 in July, the lowest level since April, after a 1.6-point decline to 61.0 in June. Although well below a peak of 84.9 in April 2022, the index remained above a low of 25.9 in December 2024 and a low of 20.8 in December 2023. In July, 55.4% of respondents reported higher prices paid while only 3.1% reported lower prices paid. The prices received index slid to 27.6 in July, a three-month low, from 31.4 in June. The index was above a low of 7.5 in December 2024 and a low of 7.7 in July 2023 but far below a high of 51.9 in March 2022. In July, 31.3% of respondents reported higher prices received while 3.6% reported lower prices received.

Firms remained fairly optimistic about the future business outlook in the latest survey. The index for future business conditions eased to 27.9 in July, the lowest level since April, after a 3.4-point decrease to 30.1 in June, with 49.9% of respondents expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months. Future new orders edged up to 33.2 in July, the highest level since February, from 32.5 in June, while future shipments slipped to 30.6 from 32.2. Growth in future employment slowed to 14.4, the lowest reading since December, from June’s 20.9. Capital spending plans remained positive for the ninth consecutive month in July, with the future capital expenditures index rising to 15.0 from June’s 10.9. Expected prices paid fell to 53.0 in July, the lowest level since March, from 59.4 in June, and expected prices received fell to 41.9, the lowest level since April, from 51.6.

The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

260715L53.jpg

260715M53.jpg

- General Business Conditions Index up 9.9 pts. to 15.6 in July; fourth straight expansion.
- Shipments (24.4), highest since Apr. ’22; new orders (22.2); unfilled orders (5.0); inventories (4.0).
- Employment (11.4), a solid reading and highest since Dec. ’22.
- Prices paid (52.3) and prices received (27.6) both at three-month lows.
- Firms fairly optimistic: Future Business Conditions Index down to a still-positive 27.9; future prices paid at a four-month-low 53.0.

U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Rebounds Strongly in July

260715E.jpg

Industrial production in the European Monetary Union (EMU) shows only a very minor and idiosyncratic sector acceleration in the nondurable goods sector. Other sectors show trends that are not focused and drift into random variability. Nondurable goods output shows growth of -10.9% over 12 months, improving to a pace of -9.9% over six months annualized and improving further to -8.7% annualized over three months. The irony is that nondurable output is contracting over all these periods, but the contractions are becoming slightly less virulent. It is nothing to base any optimism on despite the technically ‘improving’ trend.

Total output and manufacturing output in the EMU each show strong gains annualized over three months after declines on balance over six months and 12 months. 

While the secular trends are not clear in showing persistent accelerations or decelerations for the most part, it's true that output across the consumer industries continues to show contraction on all timelines. When we move to intermediate goods and capital goods, we're looking at output showing increases over 12 months, six months, and three months. Even if there are not clear progressions, the persistence of output gains is notable. This again underscores the extent to which expansion is being carried ahead by business and not by the consumer, even in Europe.

On a quarter-to-date (QTD) basis (two months into the second quarter), output is generally showing increases, with the exception of consumer durable goods showing an output decline at a 2.4% annual rate. Top-line growth is still very unimpressive, with total industrial production at a 0.6% annual growth rate and manufacturing alone at a 0.4% annual growth rate; neither of these is strong, solid, or impressive.

Turning to the percentile standing data that evaluate the strength of year-over-year growth on a historic timeline, we see that manufacturing and total output growth log percentile standings just below the 30th percentile. Consumer goods, as an aggregate category, have a 1.3% standing, which is extremely weak. That standing consists of a 29% standing for consumer durables and a 1.3 percentile standing for consumer nondurables output.

Once again, it is intermediate and capital goods that are the backbone of support for output. Intermediate goods’ annual growth rate has a 63-percentile standing, and the year-over-year growth rate for capital goods has a 52.9 percentile standing. Both being above the 50% mark puts them above their median for the period of analysis; that period extends back to August 2006, roughly a 20-year period.

I previously reported on the country detail. The country detail shows accelerating manufacturing output in Ireland, Portugal, and Sweden (Sweden that is not a monetary union member). Austria, a monetary union member, shows persistent deceleration, while the rest of the countries in the group show somewhat chaotic patterns.

While the percentile standing for year-over-year growth in manufacturing is at the 27th percentile mark for the whole of the monetary union, that amalgamation includes size weighting for that evaluation. If we take the unweighted averages for the percentile standings for 11 of the oldest monetary union members, their average individual ranking is much higher at a 48.3 percentile mark. Clearly, there are great differences by country across the monetary union, and this gives the ECB an additional headache in trying to make one monetary policy for such a varied group of economies.

260715.jpg

IP in EMU Remains Weak

Michael J. Moran

260714A.jpg

260714B.jpg

Most analysts were looking for a dip in the CPI because of a likely retreat in gasoline prices, but the published decline of 0.4% in the headline index was noticeably softer than the consensus estimate of -0.1%. Gasoline prices did not disappoint, with a drop of 9.7% offsetting approximately one-quarter of the cumulative surge in the prior three months. Prices of fuel oil fell almost as much as gasoline prices, and electricity charges contributed to the softness with a decline of 1.0%. The price of natural gas services was the only major energy item to increase in June (0.5%). All told, the energy component of the CPI fell 5.7% after climbing 19.6% in the prior three months.

The drop in energy prices was notable, but the core component provided a bigger surprise by posting a decline, the first since a series of three consecutive decreases during the pandemic. Before the pandemic-related retreat, the core component fell only twice from 1990 to 2019. The drop in June was minuscule (-0.02%), but the fact that it carried a minus sign was striking.

Both the goods and services components of the core index contributed to the restraint. Prices of goods other than food and energy fell 0.1%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes six key subcategories of core goods, and five of them fell in June. Apparel prices stood out with a decline of 0.6%. Prices of core services were nearly unchanged at 0.03%, restrained by declines in medical services and motor vehicle insurance. Airfares, which showed upward pressure from rising fuel prices in the prior three months, posted a nondescript increase of 0.2%. The modest increase in the prices of core services led to a dip in the 12-month average increase after stepping up in April and May. The trend in core goods prices continued its gradual deceleration (chart, below right).

Food prices in June rose 0.2%, a reading comfortably within the range of the past few years.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260714C.jpg

260714D.jpg

- The energy component retraced a portion of its surge in the prior three months.
- Prices excluding food and energy provided a surprise by posting a rare decline.

June CPI: Cooling Energy Prices and a Restrained Core Component

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

large_260722A5.jpg

medium_260722A5.jpg

small_260722A5.jpg

thumbnail_260722A5.jpg

260722A5.jpg

large_260722B5.jpg

medium_260722B5.jpg

small_260722B5.jpg

thumbnail_260722B5.jpg

260722B5.jpg

Mortgage applications rose 1.9% w/w (3.3% y/y) in the week ending July 17, following a decline of 2.7% (+2.2%) in the week ending July 10, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house rose 5.5% w/w (0.4% y/y) in the latest week, after declining 7.3% w/w (-1.5% y/y) in the July 10 week.  Applications for loan refinancing declined 2.4% w/w (+7.3% y/y) in the week ending July 17, after rising 3.5% w/w (7.3% y/y) in the July 10 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 2bps to 6.87% in the week ending July 17 from 6.85% in the week ending July 10. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages edged down 1bp to 6.26% in the July 17 week from 6.27% in the July 10 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate dropped 20bps to 6.57% in the latest week from 6.77% in the July 10 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose 29bps to 6.38% in the July 17 week from 6.09% in the July 10 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan declined to 41.2% of total applications in the week of July 17 from 43.2% in the July 10 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 7.7% in the July 17 week from 7.1% in the July 10 week.

The average size of a mortgage rose 1.1% w/w (3.2% y/y) to $383,700 in the week ending July 17, after declining 3.1% w/w (+1.1% y/y) to $379,500 in the week ending July 10. The average size of a purchase loan edged up 0.4% w/w (4.0% y/y) to $443,800 in the latest week, after declining 2.0% w/w to $442,200 in the July 10 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage edged up 0.2% w/w (3.5% y/y) to $297,900 in the week ending July 17, after declining 2.4% w/w to $297,200 in the July 10 week. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase rose in the latest week, while applications for loan refinancing declined.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose 2bps to 6.87%. 
- Average loan size rose.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose in the July 17 Week

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

Tokyo

London

Singapore

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

#### Academic Data Scope
National Account (GDP), Production, Labour Market, Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Policy & International Trade. High-frequency data covering financial variables and drivers of the real economy, and key ESG environmental indicators. Plus, time series from the IMF on 190+ countries to aid cross comparison.

University

#### Move Back through Time
Terabytes of time series from primary sourced databases available in monthly snapshots as early as 2000, in weekly snapshots as early as 2007 or the point of inception of the database. 

#### True DLX Database Snapshots
The data are true snapshots of DLX databases unrevised from the point in time of update.  Easily view our archive data in HaverView with thousands of monthly archives currently available for over 60 unique databases. 

260716DA1.jpg

<br></br>

**CMDTY** → Spot Prices → **Brazil** Agricultural Prices → Tilapia Prices

Tilapia prices for Brazil were added to the **CMDTY** database. Pricing series reported in USD per kilograms are available for five tilapia-producing regions. Prices represent amounts paid to fish farmers. Weekly data are sourced from the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics and start in August 2021.

Chart: Brazil is the 4th largest tilapia producer in the world, trailing China, Indonesia and Egypt - driving an aquaculture sector that generates over $2.5 bil in annual revenue and supports an estimated 3 million direct and indirect jobs. Shortages of juvenile fish and adverse weather conditions caused tilapia prices to hit record highs in May 2026. Since then, a sudden surge of tilapia imports from Vietnam resulting from a trade agreement is driving down prices, raising alarms for local producers.

260716DA2.jpg

<br></br>

**ENERGY** → Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) → Global Energy Security

Global energy security statistics were added to **ENERGY**. Tables include strategic oil inventories by country and energy product flows by chokepoint. The chokepoint table includes series for crude oil, petroleum products, and LNG for major chokepoints such as the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca, and the Suez and Panama canals. Quarterly data are sourced from the Energy Information Administration and start as early as Q1 2025.

Chart: The Straits of Hormuz and Malacca are major interdependent global maritime chokepoints connected by the energy supply chain. 80-90% of the oil flowing eastward through the Strait of Malacca originates from the Strait of Hormuz, so a crisis in one strait directly impacts the other. In Q1 2026 (early into the Mideast conflict), Hormuz handled 14.6 mb/d of oil, down 29.5% QoQ. Malacca handled 20.9 mb/d in Q1, down 12.9% - affecting energy-hungry economies like China, Japan and South Korea.

260716DA3.jpg

Featured Data Additions, July 16, 2026

260721E.jpg

The ZEW survey, assessing the opinions of German financial experts for July, showed continuing weak but improving conditions in the euro area, Germany, and the United States, with a slight step back in China. Economic expectations improved month-to-month for Germany and China, while posting a slight setback in the United States. Inflation expectations weakened month-to-month sharply and significantly across the board in all four economic units. Short-term interest rates are broadly expected to fall, while long-term interest rates are also expected to ease, with the exception of China, where some small increases are anticipated. Stock markets are showing weaker performance, with moderate step backs across all four areas.

The average of the percentile standings for the four economic units surveyed is a standing in the 44th percentile. That average reflects China as the only survey member above its median observation. Germany has the lowest reading at a 17.8 percentile standing. Next, economic expectations have a 44-percentile average as Germany is the only one above its 50th percentile mark, putting it above its median. The U.S. and China show weaker level standings around their respective 40th percentiles. Inflation expectations have a midstream ranking at their 47th percentile, below their historic medians, with China above its historic median, Germany very close to its historic median, and the euro area and the U.S. posting more moderate standings. Short-term rate expectations have an average standing in their 68th percentile; all of the readings are above their 50th percentile mark, marginally so for the U.S. but more substantially for China and the euro area. Long-rate expectations have a 46.4 percentile average standing, with China well above its median on a ranking above the 50th percentile and with rankings between the 35th and 40th percentiles for Germany and the U.S. Stock market expectations average a 36.9 percentile standing for the four economic units, with the U.S. and China above their 50th percentile mark and the euro area and Germany, substantially weaker.

Most notably, inflation expectations fell sharply in July across the board. But that was probably earlier in the month and reflected a belief that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire would hold. Now that is largely reversed as the hot war is back in Iran. So, we will expect to see backtracking in this survey next month. Of course, that means that the interest rate portion of the survey might also be in for a rehash. That will be something to watch for.

260721.jpg

ZEW Shows Mixed Gains in July

260720E.jpg

The German PPI excluding construction fell by 0.3% in June following three months of increases. Sequentially, the PPI is accelerating, with a 1.8% rise over 12 months, a gain at a 4.3% annual rate over six months, and a gain at a 4.8% annual rate over three months. They are joined by PPI excluding energy index, which also shows an accelerating pattern, rising 2.4% over 12 months, at a 4.4% annual rate over six months, and then at a 6.4% annual rate over three months.

The inflation picture for in June is fine if you restrict your view to the headline, where it dropped by 0.3%. However, the PPI excluding energy rose by 0.3% in June after rising by 0.7% in May and by 0.5% in April, definitely a string of unruly increases for producer prices in Germany.

**Sector trends**: The sector inflation metrics are not seasonally adjusted; as a result, a sequential trend may not be as reliable. On the other hand, when data aren't seasonally adjusted, it's often because the statistical authorities haven't detected stable patterns of seasonality and so they present the data as not seasonally adjusted. Let’s look at the sector trends, NSA. For consumer goods, prices fall by 1.7% over 12 months, followed by a 0.2% annualized fall over six months and at a 0.3% annual drop over three months. The pattern is not particularly reassuring as the pace of decline is waning sequentially, although consumer goods are producing declines and showing price weakness. Investment goods, on the other hand, show prices steadily expanding, by 2.1% over 12 months, by 3.2% annually over six months but then stepping back slightly toward a 2.4% annual gain over three months. Not surprisingly, the inflation fire is really cooking under intermediate goods, where raw materials have a bigger role. Intermediate goods prices are up by 5.1% over 12 months; unadjusted prices are up at a 10.9% annual rate over six months and then at a 13.8% annual rate over three months. This is clearly the source of the price pressure in the PPI.

**Energy prices**: Energy prices are only part of the problem, however, and we can see in the energy prices at the bottom of the table that they are producing some strange and unstable price trends. Brent oil prices measured in euros fell 17% month-to-month in June after rising by 0.8% in May and by 1.6% in April. Sequentially, Brent prices are up by 20.2% over 12 months and up at a 94.1% annual rate over six months, but then they fall to a 47.6% annual rate over three months. Against that background, prices in the second quarter compared to the first quarter show an increase at a 141.3% annual rate. These metrics explain why it's hard to pin down the oil-price impact on the PPI. The quarter-to-quarter changes are enormous, the three-month change is extremely weak, but that follows an extraordinary annualized gain over six months, and in June alone oil prices fell sharply by 17%. It is hard to keep track of the oil-price passthrough cycle. So, we're going to have to wait for these trends to sort themselves out to get a better fix on the impact of oil and energy prices. However, we know that the recent good news on oil has since been rescinded as the Strait of Hormuz, which was briefly open, is shut again and the U.S. and Iran have scrapped their fledgling ceasefire agreement.

**Euro area—what matters**: Policy in the euro area is made based upon inflation for the whole union, not just for Germany, but it pays closer attention to the CPI than the PPI. Germany is still the largest economy in the monetary union, and its CPI is up 2.3% over 12 months, up at a 2.5% annual rate over six months, and rising at a 0.3% annual rate over three months. The CPI excluding energy for Germany is considerably more stable, up by 2.3% over 12 months and then rising at a 2% annual rate over both six months and three months. German ex-energy CPI prices appear to be calm, with inflation arrested; however, we can't say the same thing for the PPI ex-energy, with the inflation rate in a clear accelerating mode.

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose in the July 17 Week

Recent Commentaries

ZEW Shows Mixed Gains in July

German PPI Shows Pressure but Backs Off in June

Economic Letter from Asia: Two Speed Ahead

U.S. Industrial Production Up Slightly in June; Manufacturing Flat

June Housing Starts: Contrasting Movements in Multi-Family and Single-Family

HICP Detail in EMU Shows Inflation Lurking

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

US retail sales accelerate even as consumers remain gloomy

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints