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With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Robert Brusca

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Inflation in the United Kingdom measured by the CPI-H measure rose by 0.1% in May as the core excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco also decelerated by increasing 0.1% on the month. These slower May increases follow accelerated increases in April for both the headline and core and more modest increases in March. The sequential growth rates in the headline CPI-H show a gain of 4% over 12 months, a rise at a 4.3% annual rate over 6 months, and a 3.4% annual rate rise over 3 months. The core for the CPI-H shows a 4.2% increase over 12 months, a 4.1% annual rate increase over 6 months and another slight deceleration to 3.6% at an annual rate over 3 months. These data for the headline and the core both show that U.K. inflation has plateaued and begun to edge lower; however, the deceleration is quite slight for both the headline and for the core measures.

Inflation diffusion that measures the breadth of inflation shows a reading of 54.5% over both 12 months and 6 months, with 3-month diffusion much lower at 36.4%. Diffusion readings of 50% show inflation accelerating and decelerating with equal tendencies from period-to-period. Diffusion above 50% shows more accelerating inflation while diffusion below 50% finds more deceleration for inflation. Diffusion readings show that for 3-months compared to 6-months diffusion is significantly lower but that diffusion over 6 months (compared to 12-months) and for 12-months (compared to 12-months ago) is slightly accelerating.

The HICP measure parallels the results for the headline CPI-H with a slight inflation bulge over 6 months and significant slowing of inflation over 3 months. The agreement across the headline, and core CPI-H measures compared to the HICP is reassuring that these trends are true and not simply mercurial or the results of a particular inflation weighting scheme (since CPI-H and HICP use different weights).

Meanwhile unemployment in the U.K. has risen only slightly over the past 12 to 24 months. The recent U.K. monthly GDP reading showed a sharp slowing, but year-over-year growth is still positive headline.

The sequential chart that depicts the growth rates sequentially for timeseries of 3-month, 6-month and 12-month inflation (above) shows that part from a one month slice of those rates (which is what the table provides) the timeseries reveal that the tendency for inflation peaked across these three frequencies back in January and has since been reduced to its lowest pace since October 2024 for both 6-month and 12-month CPI-H core inflation. For the 3-month version, inflation at 3.6% is the slowest since January 2024. Three-month core inflation has slowed without increasing for four months in a row as has 12-month core inflation.

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Inflation in the United Kingdom is still broadly overshooting its 2% target. But the economy has slowed, and the labor market is softening, both signs that inflation pressures - in all likelihood - are not accumulating. Slack conditions usually create more upward price pressures. And we see downward pressures are in train. Still, U.K. headline inflation is at 4% and the core is at 4.2% over 12 months. The best performing statistic is over 3 months, a less trustable reading and that horizon only has the headline at 3.4% and the core at 3.6%. These may still be rates that are too high to give the BOE true comfort about hitting its target, but these nonetheless are signs of inflation progress underway. It may still not be enough to prompt rate cutting but rate cutting may now seem a more viable option in the months ahead. However, the months ahead are a fog for forecasters because of international tariff disputes, growth uncertainties, warfare, the risk to oil prices and changing geopolitical defense burdens that a spurring economic activity ahead faster in Europe, especially in Germany.

United Kingdom

U.K. Inflation Moderates

Tom Moeller

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The Housing Market Index, compiled by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo, fell 5.9% (-25.6% y/y) to 32 in June after declining 15.0% in May. It was well below the break-even point of 50, where it’s been since May of last year. The index remains below a July 2023 high of 56 and a November 2020 peak of 90.

The rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.85% in the first two weeks of June versus 6.82% during all of May. It remained below the high of 7.79% in the last week of October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.

The single-family sales measure declined 5.4% (-27.1% y/y) this month to 35 after falling 17.8% in May. The prospective sales index in six months declined 4.8% (-14.9% y/y) to 40 after falling 2.3% in May. It was the lowest level since November 2023. The traffic of prospective buyers’ index fell 8.7% (-25.0% y/y) to 21 in June after declining 8.0% in May.

Housing performance weakened across most of the country during June. In the South, the index dropped 6.3% (-30.2% y/y) to 30 this month, after falling 15.8% in May. The index for the Midwest declined 2.5% both m/m and y/y to 39 after falling 7.0% in May. The index in the West dove 18.5% (-42.1% y/y) to 22 after plunging 25.0% in May. Moving higher, the Northeast index rose 4.8% (-29.0% y/y) to 44, after falling 2.3% in May.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low." The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The regional indexes run back to December 2004.

These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- Overall reading stands at lowest level since December 2022.
- All component measures fall.
- Most regional indexes retreat.

U.S. Home Builders Index Declines in June

Winnie Tapasanun

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Industrial production (IP) fell 0.2% m/m in May following an upwardly revised 0.1% increase in April (0.0% initially) and an upwardly revised 0.2% decline in March (-0.3% previously), data from the Federal Reserve Board showed. A 0.0% m/m for May had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate of increase decelerated to 0.6% in May, the lowest since December, from 1.5% in April; nevertheless, it was an improvement from +0.1% y/y in May 2024. The May IP index was at 103.6, slightly down from its recent high of 104.0 in February; however, having remained 2.1% above its recent low of 101.5 in January 2024.

By **industry groups**, manufacturing production edged up 0.1% (0.5% y/y) in May, the third m/m increase in four months, after a downwardly revised 0.5% drop in April (-0.4% initially). Durable goods production rose 0.4% (0.9% y/y) in May, up for the third month in four, reversing a 0.4% decline in April. This reflected m/m output rises of 4.9% (0.9% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts, 1.1% (5.7% y/y) in aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, 0.9% (2.4% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 0.9% (-1.2% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.9% (4.1% y/y) in wood products, and 0.2% (-1.5% y/y) in primary metals. Notably, aircraft & parts production rose 2.0% (9.9% y/y) in May, the seventh straight m/m rise, on top of a 1.4% increase in April. To the downside, the following durable goods categories fell m/m in May, including output drops of 1.6% (+1.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 1.2% (-2.2% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 1.0% (+1.0% y/y) in machinery, 0.4% (-3.9% y/y) in miscellaneous durables goods, and 0.2% (+4.8% y/y) in computer & electronic products.

Nondurable goods production fell 0.2% (+0.4% y/y) in May following a 0.6% decrease in April and two successive m/m increases. The May fall reflected m/m output declines of 1.7% (-0.9% y/y) in printing & related support activities, 1.4% (-2.7% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, and 0.3% (-0.9% y/y) in food, beverages & tobacco. To the upside, the following nondurable goods categories rose m/m in May, including output rises of 2.2% (-3.7% y/y) in apparel & leather goods, 0.8% (-1.6% y/y) in textiles & product mills, 0.6% (-0.5% y/y) in paper, 0.1% (4.1% y/y) in chemicals, and 0.1% (-2.4% y/y) in plastics & rubber products.

Utilities output declined 2.9% (-1.6% y/y) in May, the third m/m decrease in four months, following an upwardly revised 4.9% gain in April (+3.3% initially). In contrast, mining activity ticked up 0.1% (2.9% y/y), up for the third month in four, after a 0.3% April decline (unrevised).

By **market groups**, construction supplies production slid 0.7% (+1.6% y/y) in May after a 1.2% drop in April and two consecutive m/m rises. Consumer goods output fell 0.2% (-0.5% y/y) in May, the third successive m/m fall, after a 0.3% decline in April, reflecting a 2.0% rebound (-1.9% y/y) in durable consumer goods and a 0.8% drop (-0.1% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods. Materials production declined 0.2% (+0.9% y/y), down for the second month in three, following a 0.5% April gain. To the upside, business equipment output grew 0.8% (2.7% y/y) in May, the seventh straight m/m rise, on top of a 0.2% increase in April.

In **special classifications**, factory output of selected high-tech industries rose 0.4% (9.8% y/y) in May, the fifth m/m rise in six months, after an upwardly revised 2.8% gain in April (+1.4% initially). Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech industries inched up 0.1% (0.2% y/y) in May, the third m/m increase in four months, following a 0.6% drop in April, while manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts fell 0.3% (+0.2% y/y) following a 0.5% April decline and two consecutive m/m gains.

Capacity utilization fell to 77.4% in May, the lowest since January, from 77.7% in both April (unrevised) and March (77.8% previously). The Action Economics Forecast Survey forecasted 77.7%. The May reading was 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization held at 76.7% in May and April (76.8% initially); the May rate was 1.5 percentage points below its long-run average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- May IP -0.2% (+0.6% y/y), led by a 2.9% m/m decrease in utilities output.
- Mfg. IP +0.1%, reflecting m/m gains of 4.9% in auto production and 1.1% in aerospace & misc. transp. equipt. (w/ durable goods up 0.4% and nondurable goods down 0.2%).
- Mining activity edges up 0.1%, the third m/m increase in four months.
- Key categories in market groups mostly drop.
- Capacity utilization down 0.3%pt. to a four-month-low 77.4%; mfg. capacity utilization unchanged at 76.7%.

U.S. Industrial Production Declines in May, the Second M/M Fall in Three Months

Sandy Batten

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Total retail sales slumped 0.9% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in May following a downwardly revised 0.1% monthly decline in April (previously +0.1% m/m). The May decline was led by a 3.5% m/m (+2.5% y/y) drop in motor vehicle and parts sales and a 2.0% m/m (-6.9% y/y) price-related decline in sales at gasoline stations. This was the fourth consecutive monthly decline in gasoline sales. Sales excluding autos fell 0.3% m/m (+3.5% y/y) in May after a downwardly revised unchanged reading in April (previously +0.1% m/m). The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for total sales to fall 0.6% m/m in May and for sales ex autos to rise 0.2% m/m. Sales excluding autos and gasoline slipped 0.1% m/m in May after a 0.1% m/m increase in April.

On a more positive note, sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline and food services, rebounded 0.4% m/m (5.0% y/y) in May after an upwardly revised 0.1% m/m decline in April (previously -0.2% m/m). These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in the NIPA accounts. While these sales slowed in April and May from a relatively strong February and March, the April/May average is still 2.9% at an annual rate above the Q1 average, providing a solid foundation for Q2 PCE.

By category, in addition to declines in auto and gasoline sales, building material and garden equipment sales slumped 2.7% m/m, their first monthly decline in three months. Sales at food service and drinking places declined 0.9% m/m, their first monthly decline in three months. Sales at electronics and appliance stores fell 0.6% m/m, their first decline in four months. In contrast, sales at furniture stores continued to rise, increasing 1.2% m/m, their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Sales at sporting goods, etc. stores rose 1.3% m/m but failed to offset a 3.0% m/m decline in April. Sales at nonstore retailers rose 0.9% m/m in May for their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Miscellaneous store sales jumped 2.9% m/m.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economic Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Sales fell a more-than-expected 0.9% m/m, led by a 3.5% decline in motor vehicle sales and a 2.0% drop in gasoline store sales.
- Sales excluding autos unexpectedly fell 0.3% m/m.
- In contrast, sales in the control group (used to estimate PCE) rebounded 0.4% m/m.

U.S. Retail Sales Fell More than Expected in May 2025

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Import prices were unchanged during May after rising 0.1% in April, and falling 0.4% in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.3% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year increase picked up to 0.2% but remained below the recent high of 2.2% in December. Export prices fell 0.9% during May after an unrevised 0.1% April gain. A 0.2% decline had been expected. The y/y rise eased to 1.7% from 1.9% in April and was the slowest gain since November.

The steady import price index in May included a 4.0% drop (-15.8% y/y) in imported fuel prices, the third consecutive month of sharp decline. The decline in imported fuel costs reflected a 9.0% fall (+88.4% y/y) in natural gas, a 2.7% drop (-18.8% y/y) in fuel oil costs, a 3.7% decline (-17.4% y/y) in petroleum & petroleum products and a 5.4% drop (-17.1% y/y) in crude oil prices. Nonfuel import prices fell 0.2% (+7.7% y/y) in May following a 17% April increase. Import prices for nonfuel industrial supplies & materials rose 1.3% (5.4% y/y) and capital goods rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y), but foods, feeds & beverages prices declined 0.3% (+6.9% y/y). Import prices for automotive vehicles & parts edged 0.1% higher (1.1% y/y) and consumer goods excluding autos increased 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) after rising 0.3% in April.

The May decline in export prices reflected a 1.0% (1.7% y/y) drop in nonagricultural prices following a 0.1% dip. Petroleum & petroleum product prices fell 3.8% (-11.4% y/y). Industrial supplies & materials export prices dropped 2.9% (+1.0% y/y) in May, down for the third straight month. In contrast, agricultural export prices rose 0.2% (1.8%) following a 0.4% gain in April. The cost of capital goods rose 0.4% (1.9% y/y) after two straight 0.3% increases. Prices of consumer goods excluding autos rose 0.2% (1.4% y/y) after a 0.7% rise, while automotive vehicles & parts prices rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y) following a 0.9% April gain. Foods, feeds & beverages prices rose 0.3% (3.1% y/y) after increasing 0.4% in April.

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sharp decline in imported fuel costs is offset by increases in other products.
- Export price decline reflects lower petroleum prices.

U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady in May While Export Prices Decline

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Total business inventories were unchanged in April from March (+2.2% y/y) after having inched up 0.1% m/m in March. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had anticipated an unchanged reading. Manufacturing inventories edged down 0.1% m/m (+0.9% y/y) following five consecutive monthly gains. Retail inventories were essentially unchanged (-0.03% m/m) after having declined in three of the four previous months. In contrast, wholesale inventories rose 0.2% m/m (2.3% y/y) in April for their fourth consecutive monthly gain.

Drilling down into retail inventories, auto inventories declined 0.8% m/m in April for their sixth consecutive monthly fall. Retail inventories excluding autos increased 0.3% m/m for their fourth consecutive monthly gain. General merchandise store inventories fell 0.3% m/m, their second decline in the past three months. Inventories increased in all other major retail categories, led by a 1.0% m/m increase in food and beverage store inventories. Inventories at building materials and garden equipment stores rose 0.8% m/m following two consecutive monthly declines. Furniture store inventories increased 0.4% m/m, their third monthly increase in the past four months.

Total business sales slipped 0.1% m/m (+3.8% y/y) in April, their first monthly decline in three months. Wholesale sales edged up 0.1% (6.0% y/y), their third consecutive monthly rise. Factory sales fell 0.3% m/m (+0.6% y/y) on top of a 0.2% monthly decline in March. Retail sales decreased 0.2% m/m (+4.7% y/y) in April though in a separate report also released today, retail sales slumped 0.9% m/m in May, led by declines in auto and gasoline sales.

With the little change in both sales and inventories in April, the inventory/sales (I/S) ratio was unchanged after having fallen in four of the five previous months. The 1.38 reading in April tied the reading in the previous month as the lowest one since September 2023. The I/S ratios for retailers and wholesalers were also unchanged in April from March while the manufacturing I/S ratio increased 0.6% m/m.

The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total inventories were unchanged in April from March.
- Wholesale inventories rose for the fourth consecutive month while retail and factory inventories slipped.
- Sales edged down 0.1% m/m, the first monthly decline in three months, with declines in both factory and retail sales.
- With little change in both sales and inventories, the inventories/sales ratio was unchanged in April following two consecutive monthly declines.

U.S. Business Inventories Unchanged in April as Sales Slipped

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**Economic situation-** The ZEW index for June 2025 showed significant improvement in the euro area with the index moving up to -30.7 from -42.4 in May. At that level, the queue percentile standing on data back to 1992 is at its 47.5 percentile, close to its median for the period (median occurs at a ranking of 50%). For Germany, there was an improvement from -82 in May to -72 in June; this sets its standing at about its 20th percentile, much weaker than for the euro area overall. For the United States, there was a more modest improvement in June to -17.3 from May’s -25.4; June marks a 25.8 percentile standing, roughly in the lower quartile of its historic queue of data over the last 13 years. Economic assessments for these three reporters range from quite weak to just slightly below ‘normal.’

**Macro-expectations-** Macroeconomic expectations became sharply stronger for Germany in June; they moved up to a +47.5 reading in June from +25.2 in May, a reading that already had improved from -14 in April. Germany is on a very hot run in terms of expectations that are improving at a much faster pace than the current economic situation. Germany’s macroeconomic expectations have a 72-percentile standing, in the top 30% of their historic queue of data, quite a solid result. This contrasts sharply with the United States where there was also an improvement in June to -41.9 from -48.2 in May. The U.S., like Germany, had undergone a substantial improvement in May compared to April since April's reading had been -71.5. However, the June reading for the U.S. improved month-to-month by only a modest amount and has only an 8.5 percentile standing, the lower 10% of its historic queue of data.

**Inflation expectations-** Inflation expectations remain weak in the euro area and in Germany in June while they've grown to be quite strong in the United States. Germany saw slight increases in inflation expectations in the month, but they are still at weak levels and the 20- to 25-percentile region on a queue-standing basis. For the U.S., inflation expectations have cooled slightly from a reading of 75.8 in April to 70.7 in May, to 60 in June, a clear de-escalation of inflation expectations; however, still leaving a high 81.1 percentile standing for inflation expectations in the U.S.

**Short-term rate expectations-** Short-term interest rate expectations in the euro area rose after falling back in May; in the U.S., they edged only slightly higher after also having stepped back in May. However, both the U.S. and the euro area have extremely weak queue standings, both of them in the lower 15-percentile of their respective ranges. Short-term interest rates simply are not expected to rise, and they obviously are more likely to be cut on readings like these.

**Long-term rate expectations-** Long-term expectations for Germany and the United States show German expectations have waffled, moving from 23.3 in April, down to 6.9 in May and bouncing back to 16.8 in June to produce a queue standing in its 22nd percentile. In the U.S., long-term rate expectations were at 48.5 in April; they fell to 32.1 in May and rebounded to 39.0 in June to reach a queue standing at its 43.6 percentile, slightly below its median standing for the period (remember that median standings occur at a queue percentile standing of 50%).

**Stock market outlooks remain weak-** Stock market expectations show weak standings everywhere. The euro area saw a marginal technical improvement in June compared to May; Germany saw a small improvement in June compared to May, whereas May had seen a more significant increase compared to April. The U.S. continues to log negative readings for equities. Germany and the euro area show standings for the stock market in their respective 15-percentile ranges, whereas the United States’ reading is in its 7th percentile. All of those readings are weak.


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**Summing up**
These readings all presaged the attack on Iran by Israel. I'm sure that attack should be a significant policy event, but so far, the impact on oil prices has been relatively muted, but, of course, that's something that could change. Quite apart from any destruction of oil fields that might occur there's also the potential for Iraq and its Houthi ally could attempt to block or disrupt the flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz where a large share of global exports enters the global distribution system. So, it's hardly sufficient to say, ‘so far so good,’ or to argue that the war has not affected anything. It's really not clear where this conflict is going to go except that right now Iran is really being beat up very badly; it has no air defenses. Israel is clearly in the driver's seat and, one press report I saw, described the Israeli air campaign as only about half-over. While Iran is looking to slow down or stop the attack, it looks like Israel has a much grander plan underway and that's likely related to its desire to have a much more substantial negative impact on Iran's nuclear capabilities and its developmental and research site that is housed under a very inaccessible mountain. That also suggests that Iran's desire to quickly end the hostilities is an act to try to protect its existent nuclear operations rather than a call for mercy.

Germany

Germany’s ZEW Survey Respondents Improve Their Assessments

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The National Association for Business Economics expects that following a 2.8% gain in 2024, real GDP growth will slow to 1.3% this year, revised from 1.9% in the June survey and 1.4% in 2026, revised from 2.0%. Growth from Q4-to-Q4 is expected to slow to 0.7% in 2025 from 2.5% in 2024, then rise a minimally changed 1.9% next year. Quarterly GDP is expected to grow 0.6% in Q3’25 and 0.9% in Q4. In the first two quarters of 2026, real growth of 1.6% followed by 1.8% is expected, followed by 2.0% in both Q3’26 and Q4’26.

Real growth in personal consumption expenditures was reduced. Expected PCE growth in 2025 was shaved to 2.3% from 2.8%, and reduced to 1.4% from 2.8% in 2026. The projection for business fixed investment growth was little-changed at 1.6% this year followed by 0.9% in 2026. An expected 0.5% gain in residential fixed investment this year has been reduced from 1.1%, followed by 0.9% growth in 2026, reduced substantially from 2.4%. Government spending growth of 1.3% this year compares to 1.7% projected earlier, and 0.5% growth in 2026 lessened from 0.8%.

The net export deficit is expected to widen to $1.204 trillion in 2025, revised from $1.118, then narrow to $1.085 trillion in 2026, revised from $1.150 trillion expected earlier. Exports should increase 1.1% this year, revised from 2.3% expected earlier, then 1.6% in 2026, revised from 2.0%. Imports are projected to rise 4.7% in 2025, revised from 4.0%, then fall 0.9% in 2026, down sharply from up 1.7% as expected earlier. Inventory accumulation should rise this year to little-revised $55.0 from $39 billion in 2024, then ease to $40.0 billion in 2026, revised from $52.0 billion expected earlier.

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Housing starts are expected to steady at 1.36 million, then rise to 1.39 million in 2026, revised from 1.40 million. They have been trending lower since the 2021 peak of 1.60 million. Light vehicle sales should ease to 15.5 million units, revised from 16.0. then improve to 15.5 million next year, revised from 16.2 million. The average gain in payroll employment should soften to 91 million per month in the current year, revised from 115,000, then increase to 99,000 in 2026, revised from 125,000. Payrolls increased 216,000 in 2023. The unemployment rate in 2025 has been nudged up to 4.4% from 4.3% projected earlier. The jobless rate is now expected to rise to 4.7% in 2026, revised from 4.3%.

Inflation pressures are expected to eventually abate. After falling in 2024 to 2.7% (Q4/Q4), the increase in the CPI is forecast to first rise to 3.4% this year, revised from 3.0%, then fall to 2.6% in 2026, revised from 2.5% a 2.7%. These increases compare to a 7.1% rise in 2022. Price inflation, as measured by the PCE chain price index, is expected to rise to 3.1% in 2025, revised from 2.3%, then fall to an unrevised 2.3% in 2026. It hit 6.0% in 2022. The gain in the chain PCE price index excluding food & energy is projected to rise to 3.1% this year, revised from 2.8%, then fall to 2.4% in 2026. The index rose to its high of 5.2% in 2022. The projected cost of crude oil of $65 per barrel compares to $70 projected earlier. The $68 per barrel at the end of next year compares to $66 expected earlier, and $70 per barrel at the end of 2024.

Long-term interest rates are expected to ease. The forecast of 4.19% at the end of this year compares to 4.23% expected earlier, with 4.00% forecast at the end of next year compared to 4.06% previously projected. The Fed is expected to continue its easing of monetary policy. The Federal funds rate is forecast to decline to 3.88% at the end of 2025 from 4.37% at the end of 2024, then fall to an unrevised 3.38% by the end of 2026. After-tax corporate profits are predicted to rise 2.1% this year, revised from 2.7%, and a minimally-changed 3.3% next year.

The figures from the latest NABE report can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- Consumer spend growth is reduced.
- Business investment growth unchanged.
- Price inflation is forecast to pick up, then moderate.

NABE Forecasts Sharply Reduced Growth for 2025 & 2026

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The Current Activity Diffusion Index from the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, held steady in June at -4.0, though that was increased from a larger rate of decline in May when the index stood at -26.4. The survey covers the third Federal Reserve District. A reading of 0.0 for June had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A higher 24.5% (NSA) of firms reported increases in general activity in June, while an increased 28.4% reported decreases reported declines. Responses to this month's survey were collected from June 9 to June 16.

Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-adjusted current activity diffusion index from five key components using the methodology along the lines of the national ISM index. The index rose to 51.4 in June from 50.7 in May.

In the latest survey, the new orders index fell to 2.3 in June after falling sharply to 7.5 in May. Twenty six percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 23.8% reported declines. The shipments index rose to 8.3 after falling to -13.0 as 28.4% of respondents reported higher shipments and 20.0% indicated declines. The unfilled orders measure rose to 9.3 from 4.9, its highest level since January. The delivery times index rose to -13.6 after falling to -9.2 in May. Meanwhile, the inventories index fell to 3.6 in June, as 16.1% of respondents reported as increases and 12.5% reported decline.

The employment index declined to -9.8 after rising to 16.5 in May. It was the lowest level since May 2020. Eleven percent of respondents reported increases in employment in June while 20.3% reported declines. The average workweek index fell to 1.6 in last month after rising to 2.0 in May. Ten percent of respondents reported longer hours while 12.0% reported a decline.

Inflation measures eased in June. The prices paid index declined to 41.4 after surging to a three-year high of 59.8 in May. A lessened 41.4% of respondents reported increases in input prices in June while no respondents reported a decline. The prices received index fell to 29.5 after surging to 43.6 in May. A lessened 32.2% of respondents reported increases in prices received while only 2.6% reported declines.

The Future Activity Index over the next six months declined sharply to 18.3 in June after surging to 47.2 in May. A lessened 45.1% of respondents expected an increase in activity while an increased 26.8% expected a decline. Component declines were mixed including new orders & shipments which roughly halved and the hours worked and inventory index which fell. To the upside, the employment index rose slightly after surging in May. The unfilled orders & delivery tines readings also strengthened. The future prices paid index rose to the highest level since January 2022 and the expected prices received reading edged higher.

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS), conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The diffusion indexes in the MBOS represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The series from the survey dating back to May 1968 can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.	

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- Current General Activity Index indicates less of a weakening in factory sector activity.
- Inflation reading increases sharply.
- Future General Activity Index falls to three-month low.

U.S. Philadelphia Fed Factory Index Holds Steady in June; Price Reading Declines

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Japan’s inflation measures excluding fresh food are showing significant pressure as the ‘all items ex fresh food’ metric soared at a 5.6% annual rate over 3 months while the measure excluding fresh food & energy rose at 3.7% pace over 3 months. The two gauges also rose by 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively, over a span of 12 months. The performance of the measure excluding fresh food & energy sequentially is plotted in the chart. It shows clear ongoing inflation pressure and acceleration.

This, of course, puts the Bank of Japan in a difficult position. Midyear elections are in prospect and sharp rise in rates could prove politically intrusive. At the same time, Japan’s largest trading partner, China, is struggling and its second largest trading parting, the United States, is embroiled in negotiations with Japan over tariffs. There is a great deal of uncertainty for Japan right now surrounding the policy process and that includes a large dose of geopolitical issues.

At the same time, there has been a kerfuffle in Japan’s bond market in the super-long end as purchaser demand has proved less solid and less stable than it was. The BOJ has had a scheduled taper of its purchases in place, one that the BOJ at its last meeting agreed to reduce in order to retain better demand in the long end of the JGB market. However, Japan does face some uncertain times for policy.

The inflation metrics with fresh food show the strongest growth rates for inflation. A traditional core measure that subtracts all food and energy shows less pressure at only 1.5% over 12 months, compared to core readings of 3.3% and 3.7% for the core measures that subtract out fresh food.

Looking across components, among the eight major categories only two have inflation easing over 12 months compared to 12-months ago; those two are ‘education’ where inflation is - and prices- are falling sharply, and ‘reading and recreation’ where inflation is at 2.9% but lower than it was 12-months ago.  Over 6 months, only two of five categories show inflation acceleration (compared to the 12-month pace) and the 3-month annualized inflation across categories shows acceleration in half and deceleration in half compared to the paces over 6 months. Only education shows sequential deceleration – where the fall off is sharp. Only housing shows sequential acceleration, and the ramp up there is more moderate.

**QTD (quarter-to-date)**
Quarter-to-data inflation (May & April over the Q1 average then compounded) shows a headline pace at 2%; ‘all items ex fresh food’ inflation is at a 4.7% pace; ‘all items ex fresh food & energy’ is at 3.3%, while the traditional core ‘excluding all food & energy’ is at 1.4%. So, again, we see on the QTD horizon the measures with fresh food subtracted – the BOJ’s preferred gauges- are showing the most pressure. By component, QTD pressure is lodged in ‘reading & recreation’ and in ‘transportation & communication;’ and ‘housing’ (without subtractions) flies below the 2% target at 1.8%.

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