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Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

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Inflationary impact of surge in oil prices larger in Europe than in the US

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we cover the latest developments and implications of the Middle East conflict for Asia, while also making space for other important themes, including artificial intelligence (AI). The Middle East conflict remains in a no deal state coming out of the weekend, though some early Monday optimism emerged in Asian markets following Iran’s reported offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (chart 1). Nonetheless, as the Strait closure drags on, so too do the fiscal costs of domestic fossil fuel subsidies across Asia, which have been shown to move closely with crude oil prices (chart 2). While such measures offer direct relief by cushioning household energy costs, they remain difficult to sustain over the long haul.

Over the week, we also saw a further fraying in regional monetary policy trends, with the Philippines hiking its policy rate for the first time in about two years amid inflation concerns, while Indonesia stood pat on rates (chart 3). Investor attention is likely to remain fixed on monetary policy this week, with the Bank of Japan due to decide on policy. Expectations for an April hike have faded amid the persistent Middle East conflict, though yen weakness continues to present a source of concern (chart 4). The week also brings China’s latest PMI readings (chart 5), adding to the recent run of hard data accompanying the Q1 GDP release.

Beyond the Middle East conflict, the evolution of AI continues to demand close attention. Before geopolitical tensions took centre stage, AI was the dominant market narrative — and that enthusiasm has hardly faded. If anything, recent developments suggest the story is broadening: use cases are expanding, scalability is improving, and access is widening beyond large corporates to the mass market — increasingly spilling into the realm of physical AI. It may well be this persistent wave of optimism that is helping to underpin equity valuations, even as the geopolitical backdrop darkens (chart 6).

**The Middle East conflict**
About two months in, we remain stuck in the limbo of the US-Iran conflict, which has left the Strait of Hormuz largely closed and much of the world starved of the critical oil flows needed to power the global economy. The back and forth between the US and Iran has persisted in recent weeks, with both sides again failing to reach a peace deal over the weekend, though Monday’s news of Iran offering to reopen the Strait has revived some hope in markets. In truth, commodity and market valuations do not hinge so much on a peace deal itself, but rather on the resumption of oil flows through the Strait, something that could materialise even in the absence of a formal deal, though any agreement that includes and credibly delivers such a reopening would likely be warmly received by markets. Until then, market gyrations are likely to persist, with prices fluctuating in response to each new snippet of news. And until then, the world will continue both to be starved of, while gradually adapting to, the drip feed of oil flows emerging from the Strait.

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**The fiscal costs of the Middle East conflict**
As the Middle East conflict drags on, so too does the strain on fiscal resources across parts of Asia, as the costs of energy-related subsidy programmes continue to mount. While such programmes have an immediate, direct, and tangible impact in shielding households from surging energy costs, they are far from sustainable, particularly if oil prices remain well above targeted levels or stay elevated for an extended period. As chart 2 illustrates, the costs of these explicit subsidy programmes tend to rise closely with crude oil prices, as seen in India and Indonesia. Other measures adopted elsewhere, such as drawing down oil reserves, may be less fiscally costly, but are similarly difficult to sustain indefinitely. In both respects, the clock is ticking, and the world continues to hold its breath as the conflict drags on.

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**The latest central bank responses to the conflict**
Over the past week, Asia saw two central bank decisions. The Philippines’ (BSP) opted to deliver its first rate hike in about two years, while Indonesia’s (BI) chose to stand pat on policy rates and instead committed to stepped up FX intervention (chart 3). This latest round of decisions points to a further fraying of what had been a broad regional monetary policy consensus, namely that central banks would delay additional easing while maintaining a high bar for outright tightening. Domestic considerations, however, remain paramount. In the Philippines’ case, the central bank has moved to rein in inflation, which is already showing notable signs of price pass through stemming from disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. That said, BSP is not the first in the region to buck the reluctance to tighten. Singapore’s central bank had already tightened policy in mid-April, albeit through its own distinct framework, given its use of the exchange rate rather than policy rates as the primary channel for monetary policy.

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**The week ahead**
Looking to the week ahead, a major central bank decision looms in Japan. Market expectations for the Bank of Japan to deliver a rate hike at its April meeting have ebbed amid the persistence of the Middle East conflict, to which Japan remains particularly vulnerable given its reliance on oil imports flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, inflation in Japan has yet to become a major concern, with recent readings having picked up but not yet entering troubling territory. One potential source of concern, however, lies with the Japanese yen, which has remained on a weakening trend since early last year (chart 4). That depreciation has been one of the key arguments underpinning calls for further rate hikes.

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The week also brings China’s latest PMIs into focus. March saw a divergence between China’s official PMI readings, which improved, and the unofficial readings from RatingDog, which instead pulled back. Nonetheless, both official and unofficial gauges remained in expansionary territory (chart 5), with investors now watching closely to see whether that resilience can be sustained amid ongoing stresses from the Middle East, or whether offsetting drivers can continue to keep Chinese business sentiment and prospects buoyant.

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**Beyond the strait**
Moving beyond the Middle East conflict, a whole host of developments continue to unfold globally, many of which have in fact helped offset some of the pessimism wrought by the Strait’s chokehold. One such development is artificial intelligence (AI), which had dominated headlines before the outbreak of the conflict and continues to advance at breakneck pace. AI capabilities are still rapidly evolving, while practical applications, such as physical AI embodied in humanoid robots, are beginning to show broader and stronger use cases. Production of such robots is also becoming increasingly scalable and within reach not just for industrial complexes and healthcare, but for the mass market as well. It is perhaps growing optimism around these prospects that has helped keep equity valuations buoyant, even in the face of the festering conflict in the Middle East. Moreover, while concerns over AI-driven job displacement persist, new opportunities are emerging as well, particularly for AI adopters, with a growing share of job postings in Western economies increasingly referencing AI-related skills, as shown in chart 6.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Not Just About the Strait

Robert Brusca

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**The Distributive Trades Survey**

The U.K. Distributive Trades Survey for April 2026 and the look-ahead expectation readings for May paint an extremely soured outlook for the U.K. economy.

**Retail ranking**: Surveys for retail sales compared to a year ago, orders compared to a year ago, and sales evaluated for the time of year all have rankings near zero, which is the worst result on this timeline. This zero distinction applies to retail sales compared to a year ago. The best ranking is 11.6%; that is for sales evaluated for the time of year. Orders compared to a year ago have a 4.2 percentile standing. The stock-to-sales ratio—which is a completely different concept—shows that the inventory-to-sales ratio has a 29.9 percentile standing.

**Retail diffusion**: The raw April diffusion readings (up minus down diffusion) show that sales compared to a year ago slipped to a reading of -68 in April from -52 in March. Orders fell to -46 in April from -26 in March. Sales evaluated for the time of year fell to -32 April from -23 in March. All three measures weakened, and all three weakened decisively, resulting in extremely weak rankings. All of the rankings are executed on data back to 2002.

**Expectations for retailing**: The expectations readings for May show slippage again across all three metrics: expected sales compared to a year ago, expected orders compared to a year ago, and expected sales for the time of year. Expected sales compared to a year ago fell to -60 in May from -49 in April. Orders compared to a year ago declined to -45 in May from -30 in April, and sales for the time of year slipped to -43 from -19. In May, these readings have rankings in a 0.4 percentile standing for sales compared to a year ago, a 1.8 percentile standing for sales evaluated relative to the time of year, and a 4.6 percentile standing for orders compared to a year ago. These two panels on current and expected retail sales volumes are just simply terrible: weak monthly, weak in ranking terms, and showing slipping momentum.

The distributor trade series also provides data on the wholesale sector. While the wholesale sector is not quite as beat up as the retail sector, it's still extremely weak. There is no cause for any kind of hope that things are getting better based on wholesaling trends.

**Wholesaling**: The wholesale survey for sales compared to a year ago edged lower to -32 in April from -31 in March. Orders compared to a year ago remained at a reading of -41 in April. Sales evaluated for the time of year improved to a reading of -20 in April from -39 in March—a significant step up, but still very weak. The percentile standings for these three categories show sales compared to a year ago at the 8.8 percentile, orders compared to a year ago at the 5.6 percentile, and sales evaluated for the time of year at the 14.8 percentile.

**Wholesale Expectations**: The look-ahead observations, which provide expectations for wholesaling in May, show a similar constellation of readings, with sales compared to a year ago falling to -37 in May from -27 in April and orders compared to a year ago falling to -42 from -38, while sales evaluated for the time of year improved to  16 from  37. That category for wholesale sales improved both in April in real time and in May for expectations; however, it continues to have a very weak percentile standing, at the 17.9 percentile in May, while sales for a year ago have a 6.7 percentile standing and orders for a year ago have a 6.0 percentile standing.

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While some of the global PMI data have improved, these survey data for the U.K. are particularly dour. The war in Ukraine drags on, and there's a new conflict in Iran that has shut the Strait of Hormuz, creating energy problems for much of Europe. More broadly, supply chains have been harmed. In addition, the U.K. is undergoing a bout of political instability, as its Prime Minister is under pressure and a good deal of political uncertainty is being worsened by deteriorating economic performance.

Both the U.K. and the European Monetary Union had been showing some progress on inflation until the Iran war hit. Now, as the oil prices are up so sharply, headline inflation is going to be worse everywhere and there will probably be a bit more attention directed to the core inflation rate. However, the U.K. has had inflation too hot for a while, and it has failed to settle down. At its last meeting, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee warned that if the war was still ongoing at the next meeting, there would be a risk of a rate hike. So, it would seem that a rate hike is going to be in play unless the economy falls off a cliff first, which, based on the distributive trades data, is also something that could happen. The U.K. economy appears to be on very unsound footing, and what happens next is just about anybody's guess.

United Kingdom

U.K. Retail Sales: Worse Than During Covid

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The onset of the war in Iran appears to have hit the German economy extremely hard as the Ifo survey shows very substantial and broad-based decline across its survey in April. The Ifo survey features readings for five sectors as well as an aggregate reading, and it surveys them for climate, current conditions, and expectations. The decline in the Ifo survey is present for all three concepts and across all five sectors, marking the weakening in April as a highly significant and extremely disturbing development. Only manufacturing in the current conditions survey escapes a month-to-month decline.

**The Ifo sequences**: The **climate** reading fell both overall and across each of the five sectors. **Current conditions** declined for the overall and for four of the five sectors, with manufacturing the sole exception. **Expectations** declined for the overall and for all sectors. Several of the sector declines were for a very substantial magnitude, especially when compared to historic changes in these indexes.

**Monthly changes in readings—severe broad deterioration**
The month-to-month change in the climate reading has weakened more month-to-month 19% of the time. That overall result, however, is boosted by manufacturing where the monthly change has been weaker 35% of the time (on data back to 2011). However, all other sectors have seen climate weaker m/m only 2.3% to 6.3% of the time! The current situation readings weakened, with the headline weakening more m/m 11% of the time. This was boosted by manufacturing, the only sector that improved on the month; its ranking on change was in its 85th percentile—quite good and truly stand-alone good news. The other current changes by sector ranged from construction being weaker 1.7% of the time, to retailing that has been weaker about 30% of the time in terms of m/m changes. Expectation changes were uniformly terrible, with the headline drop weaker only 6.3% of the time and sector change month-to-month weaker between 9% and 1.7% of the time. The monthly weakening was uniform and substantial. I document it with these calculations, but you can also see it on the chart above.

**Climate**: The bottom line is that the all-sector index for climate fell to -20.3 in April from -18 in March, placing it at a 10.5 percentile standing on data since 1993. The sector ranking is the highest for construction with a 42.2 percentile standing and the weakness for services at a 1.1 percentile standing—weaker than the table reading nearly 99% of the time. In terms of percentile standing levels or monthly changes, conditions are closing in on grim.

**Current conditions**: Current conditions saw the all-sector index slip to -5.3 in April from -2.4 in March. The headline ranking stands at a 9.8 percentile mark, making it—like the climate reading—weaker than its current reading only about 10% of the time. The strongest reading under current conditions is for construction which has a 60.6 percentile standing; it is the only ranking in the table above its historic median. Manufacturing, the only sector in the survey that improved month-to-month, has a 22.5 percentile standing, while services record the weakest percentile standing under current conditions, at an 8.4 percentile standing.

**Expectations:** The all-sector index for expectations fell to -25.3 in April from -19.9 in March, placing it at a 6.3 percentile standing. The percentile standings across sectors range from a high of 9.5% for manufacturing to a low of 1.5% for retailing. Up until earlier this year, the Ifo was showing signs of improvement; however, all of that has simply collapsed in the last month. Weakness is across economic concepts and sectors, as documented above. For reference, the table also gives a separate set of rankings on where the various indexes stand since the invasion of Ukraine, since that was another marked event that drove the index, that had been improving after Covid, down to lower levels.  Ranked even on this reduced scale looking at conditions only since the invasion of Ukraine, when conditions have generally been weaker, the current rankings across the Ifo survey remained extremely weak. This is a very disturbing survey for the German economy.

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Germany

German Ifo Plunges Everywhere

Andrew Cates

**Energy shock lifts inflation, trims growth**
The IMF’s latest WEO revisions for 2026 broadly reflect the classic stagflationary impact of the recent Middle East energy shock, with growth downgraded and inflation revised higher across most major economies. Higher energy prices act as a tax on real incomes while simultaneously pushing up costs. That said, the picture is not uniform: a number of economies—notably the US, China and India—have seen growth upgrades, reflecting stronger-than-expected momentum so far in 2026. By contrast, the UK stands out at the stagflationary extreme, combining one of the largest growth downgrades with a relatively strong inflation uplift—consistent with its weaker underlying momentum, greater energy sensitivity and more persistent domestic inflation dynamics. More broadly, while the global revisions remain modest—pointing to resilience in activity—the message is that disinflation is no longer a smooth glide back to target but increasingly contingent on energy prices and geopolitical developments.

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**Markets largely shrug off rising economic pessimism**
Notwithstanding a more downbeat assessment from economists—including the IMF’s stagflationary tilt to the outlook—there has been remarkably little follow-through into financial markets. Measures of systemic stress in both the US and UK remain low by historical standards, suggesting that investors are, for now, largely looking through the Middle East conflict. There are several possible explanations: corporate profits remain resilient, the AI-driven investment narrative continues to dominate market thinking, and markets may be assuming that any energy shock will be temporary and contained. In effect, investors appear to be pricing a benign baseline in which geopolitical risks do not materially disrupt growth, inflation expectations or policy. The UK is a partial exception, with a somewhat more visible uptick in stress, which aligns more closely with the IMF’s more challenging growth-inflation trade-off and the economy’s greater sensitivity to energy prices.

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**Volatility falls despite deteriorating growth surprises**
Market optimism is also increasingly at odds with the incoming data flow. Typically, equity volatility declines when growth surprises are positive and inflation surprises are benign. However, the recent pattern has broken that relationship. Growth surprises across the G10 have turned increasingly negative (our series is inverted in the chart below), yet volatility has continued to fall. In other words, markets are becoming less sensitive to weakening macro data, continuing to price a benign outlook even as the data deteriorate. This divergence reinforces the broader theme: investors are, for now, looking through both geopolitical risks and softer economic momentum, placing greater weight on resilience in earnings, the AI-driven narrative and the assumption that policy will remain supportive.

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**Inflation Nowcasts Have Jumped**
Incoming data suggest that headline inflation has moved higher in recent weeks, broadly in line with expectations given the rise in energy prices following the Middle East shock. Nowcasts for CPI across the major economies show a clear rebound in March and April from the lows seen at the start of 2026, with the move occurring in a relatively synchronised fashion. This reinforces the view that the recent pickup in inflation is being driven primarily by a common external factor—energy.

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**Energy shock not yet feeding into underlying inflation**
However, the detailed breakdown of March inflation outcomes suggests that this remains, for now, a largely headline-driven phenomenon. While headline CPI prints were firm across most economies, core inflation—stripping out energy and food—was more subdued and in some cases weaker. This indicates that there has been very limited pass-through from higher energy prices into broader goods and services inflation at this early stage. In other words, the shock is still being absorbed rather than propagated. That distinction is critical for policy and markets alike: as long as second-round effects remain contained, central banks may be able to look through the near-term rise in inflation, even as headline rates move higher.

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**Inflation Expectations Rising as Growth Sentiment Falters**
It remains early days, and much will hinge on how inflation expectations evolve from here. The latest ZEW survey for Germany already conveys the hallmarks of a classic stagflationary shock, with macroeconomic expectations weakening even as inflation expectations have ratcheted sharply higher. This shift is important: while the recent rise in headline inflation has so far shown limited pass-through into core, a sustained increase in expectations would raise the risk of second-round effects and make the inflation process more persistent. In that sense, the ZEW data highlight the key fault line in the current environment—whether the energy-driven shock remains contained, or begins to embed itself more broadly through expectations and pricing behaviour.

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Financial markets have remained notably calm in recent weeks despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a more downbeat macroeconomic narrative and elevated uncertainty. Measures of financial stress and volatility remain low, and equity markets continue to look through both the conflict and softer data. That resilience sits alongside a more nuanced macro backdrop. The IMF’s latest WEO revisions point to a classic stagflationary energy shock—growth downgraded and inflation revised higher—although the global impact remains modest and uneven, with some economies still benefiting from stronger momentum (chart 1). At the same time, market pricing appears increasingly detached from the data flow, with volatility declining even as growth surprises have turned more negative relative to inflation (charts 2 and 3). Incoming inflation data reinforce the idea of a largely headline-driven shock, with nowcasts rising in line with higher energy prices but only limited pass-through into core inflation so far (charts 4 and 5). However, it remains early days. Survey evidence, such as the latest ZEW release, suggests that inflation expectations may already be responding in a more concerning way, with a marked rise alongside weakening growth sentiment (chart 6). Taken together, the key question for markets is whether this remains a contained, energy-driven shock that can be looked through—or whether it begins to embed more persistently via expectations, forcing a reassessment of the currently benign outlook.

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Charts of the Week: Risks Build, Markets Shrug

Sandy Batten

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The National Activity Index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (CFNAI) slipped to -0.20 in March from an upwardly revised +0.03 in February (previously (-0.11). This is the lowest monthly reading since last November. Smoothing out the monthly volatility, the index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) declined to -0.03 in March from an upwardly revised +0.03 in February (previously -0.01).

This index is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the FRB Chicago indicates that readings on the 3-month average of -0.70 or below are consistent with the economy being in a recession. Therefore, even though the March reading on the 3-month average was negative, it indicates that the US economy is still growing, just slightly slower than trend, and is well away from recessionary conditions. The 3-month average would be much deeper in negative territory if the economy was at risk of contracting.

The National Activity Index is a composite of 85 economic indicators, grouped into four major categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours worked; personal consumption and housing; sales, orders, and inventories. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from February, and three categories made negative contributions in March. Production-related indicators contributed –0.20 to the CFNAI in March, down from +0.13 in February. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in March, down from +0.05 in February. Employment-related indicators contributed +0.02 to the CFNAI in March, up from –0.15 in February. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in March, down from a neutral value in February.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of the change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average, increased to –0.04 in March from –0.08 in February. This is the highest reading since February 2025. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. If all of the underlying indicators in a given month are below their long-run averages, the diffusion index will equal -1. If all of the indicators are above their long-run averages, it will equal +1. Thirty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 51 made negative contributions. Forty-three indicators improved from February to March, while 40 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- The monthly reading fell to -0.20 in March from an upwardly revised +0.03 in February.
- The three-month average slipped from +0.03 to -0.03.
- Despite the slip in March, the index points to near-trend economic growth and is well above recession territory.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Slipped in March

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 6,000 to 214,000 in the week ending April 18, from 208,000 in the week ending April 11, revised from 207,000. The four-week average rose 750 to 210,750 in the week ending April 18, from 210,000 the April 11 week, revised from 209,750. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 210,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 12,000 to 1.821 million in the week ending April 11, from 1.809 million in the week ending April 4. The four-week moving average rose to 1.812 million in the latest week from 1.811 million in the March 28 week. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of April 11. It has remained at that level since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending April 4, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.51%), Massachusetts (2.37%), Rhode Island (2.31%), Washington (2.25%), Minnesota (2.11%), and California (2.02%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), Louisiana (0.31%), Arkansas (0.35%), Alabama (0.36%), North Carolina (0.39%), Tennessee (0.46%), South Dakota (0.47%), Kansas and Virginia (both 0.49%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.92%), Illinois (1.82%), Pennsylvania (1.52%), and Texas (1.04%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims rose by 6,000 to 214,000.
- Continuing claims rose by 12,000 to 1.821 million.
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%.


U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Rose in the Week of April 18

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**Manufacturing looks strong while service sectors weaken**
S&P's April flash PMI readings show some very mixed results. For the United States, India, Australia, and the United Kingdom, there is a strengthening in the readings month-to-month for services, manufacturing, and the composite.

For Japan, France, and the European Monetary Union as a whole, there is improvement in the manufacturing sector on the month but a weaker services reading and a weaker composite overall.

Germany is the only responding area in the table showing weakness all around—in all three sectors—a weaker composite, a weaker manufacturing sector, and a weaker services sector in April. For Germany, this follows a weaker composite and service sector in March as well.

Most reporters—France, the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, and India—had weaker readings for all three metrics in March: the composite, services, and manufacturing. The March exceptions were the United States, Germany, and the European Monetary Union; in each case, the exception was that the manufacturing sector improved month-to-month, while the composite and services both weakened.

This has been a period of weakening—in March and April—since the war in Iran began. The 48 separate sector readings produced 30 readings that were weaker month-to-month in March and April. Among the 16 composite readings, 12 reported weaker conditions month-to-month. In March, the immediate aftermath of the outbreak of war brought instantaneous step backs across the PMI readings, while April, responding to at least a military success in the area, has shown a significant bounce back that is now more common than further weakness.

The sequential data over three months, six months, and 12 months are based only on completed data; therefore, they're up to date through March. On that basis, we have triple sector weakness in the U.S., India, and Australia, with only Japan and the United Kingdom showing triple-sector improvement over three months. However, if we look at six months compared to 12 months, we have triple sector strength in the Monetary Union, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Australia. India and the U.S. each show only one stronger sector over that comparison—services in India’s case and manufacturing in the U.S. case.

**Ranking Peculiarity**
The ranking data take the current flash data and compare them to the history of observations back to January 2022. What is quite surprising is that, on that timeline, the manufacturing sectors of all the countries in the table—except for Australia and India—show manufacturing standings in their respective 80th to 90th percentiles. Meanwhile, services standings are typically in the 30th percentile or lower.

**Odd Impact of War**
If the war in Iran has an impact on something, we would expect that to fall on the goods trade sector. We would expect this to have an impact on manufacturing although it's the opposite thing that's happening. Manufacturing is showing a revival, while services sectors are showing weaker performance across these countries generally. India is an interesting case, with manufacturing only in its 32nd percentile; however, India’s raw diffusion reading for manufacturing is the strongest raw diffusion reading in the table. What India's ranking is telling us is that India had been extremely strong over the period since 2022, and now compared to that past standard, it's relatively weaker. However, it's still strong in absolute terms, showing a great deal of strength based on its pure diffusion value, just not in comparison to historic performance.

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**Next?**
At this point, it's not clear to me at least what these PMI data are telling us since the strength in manufacturing is a curiosity as is the weakness in the services sector. You see these two phenomena displayed in the chart above, in the case of the European Monetary Union’s flash readings as well.

**War breeds negative effects**
It's not a surprise that war would take some toll on consumer confidence or that it would be reflected in the services sector. However, seeing the kind of weakness being portrayed now in services against the strength in manufacturing is simply a bit hard to rationalize and understand. So, I think we're going to have to keep an eye on these readings as well as other readings in the months ahead to try to discern how global events, the war, conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, inflation currency shifts, and central bank policy are playing out across these various countries. None of what is happening is obvious to me. Japan clearly continues to benefit from a weak yen as its manufacturing sector is flying high, at its best reading since January 2022.

S&P PMIs Show Mixed Fortunes

Winnie Tapasanun

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Mortgage applications rose 7.9% w/w (29.9% y/y) in the week ending April 17 following a 1.8% rebound in the week ending April 10, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the second successive w/w gain and the largest since the February 27 week, lifting the index to 303.3, its highest level since the March 20 week. Applications for loans to purchase a house jumped 10.1% (14.5% y/y) in the April 17 week, the biggest w/w increase since the January 9 week, after a 1.0% decline in the previous week. Applications for loan refinancing rose 5.8% (51.9% y/y) in the April 17 week following a 5.1% rebound in the April 10 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 7bps to 6.53% in the week ending April 17 from 6.60% in the week ending April 10; it was above a low of 6.29% in the week of September 20, 2024 but below a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped 12bps to 5.92% in the April 17 week from 6.04% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the week of September 20, 2024 but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans declined 5bps to 6.56% in the April 17 week from 6.61% in the prior week; it was above its most recent low of 6.25% in the February 27 week but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. These three rates hit their lowest levels since the March 13 week. Meanwhile, the rate on a 5-year ARM edged up to 5.81% in the April 17 week, the first w/w increase in four weeks, from 5.80% in the previous week (the lowest since the March 6 week); it was above its most recent low of 5.38% in the February 20 week but below a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 44.2% of total applications in the week ending April 17—the sixth w/w fall in seven weeks and the lowest level since the week of August 1, 2025—after rising to 45.5% in the week ending April 10; those numbers remained below a peak of 61.9% in the January 16 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity declined to a three-week-low 8.0% in the April 17 week from 8.4% in the prior week; it was below a peak of 12.9% in the week of September 12, 2025 but above a low of 4.7% in the week of January 3, 2025.

The average size of a mortgage loan, up for the third consecutive week, rose 1.2% w/w (3.4% y/y) to $399,900 in the April 17 week, the highest level since the March 13 week, after a 1.3% increase to $395,000 in the April 10 week. The average size of a purchase loan eased 0.1% (+3.6% y/y) to $455,600 in the April 17 week, the fourth w/w decline in five weeks, following a 1.8% rebound to $456,100 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage climbed 2.4% (10.7% y/y) to $329,500 in the April 17 week after a 1.5% rise to $321,800 in the previous week, marking the third successive w/w increase and the highest level since the March 20 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications +10.1% w/w, biggest increase since the Jan. 9 week; refinancing loan applications +5.8% w/w, second consecutive rise.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans down 7bps to 6.53%, a five-week low.
- Average loan size up for the third straight week, highest level since the March 13 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Up 7.9% in the April 17 Week, Largest Gain Since Late February

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Housing starts and permits data were released for both February and March today. Release of these data has been delayed by the federal government shutdown in October 2025. Total starts fell 3.0% m/m in February to 1.356 million units from a downwardly revised 1.398 million in January (previously 1.487 million) but then rebounded to 1.502 million (+10.8% m/m) in March. The March level was the highest since December 2024 and 10.8% higher than a year earlier. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 5.9% decline in March from January to a level of 1.4 million units. The 7.2% q/q increase in starts in Q1 is the first quarterly increase since Q1 2025. Residential investment has been a drag on overall GDP growth over the past year. The sharp Q1 increase raises hope that residential investment could make a small contribution to Q1 GDP growth in tomorrow’s report.

Single-family starts rose 4.8% m/m in February and 9.7% m/m in March to be 8.9% higher than a year ago. Multi-family starts plunged 17.0% m/m in February following an 18.2% monthly surge in January. They rebounded in March, rising 13.2% m/m to be up 15.5% y/y. The strong performance of starts in March following weakness earlier this year most likely reflects some catch-up as building conditions improved in March after having been very challenging in January and February.

Across the four major geographic regions, starts in the Northeast increased 24.8% m/m in March but fell 21.2% m/m in February. They were up 18.9% y/y. In the Midwest, starts increased 12.2% m/m in Mach on top of a 20.9% monthly gain in February. The March figure was down 0.9% from a year ago. In the South, starts rose 9.1% m/m in March but fell 3.6% m/m in February. In March they were up 14.1% from a year ago. In the West, starts rose 7.2% m/m in March after monthly declines of 7.7% in January and 3.7% in February. Compared with a year ago, they were up 8.0%.

The performance of building permits in February and March mirrored that of starts. Total permits rose 11.0% m/m in February but fell 10.8% m/m in March to be down 7.4% from a year ago. Single-family permits rose 6.2% m/m in February and then fell 3.8% m/m in March. They were 7.9% lower than a year ago. Multi-family permits rebounded 19.2% m/m in February after an 11.1% m/m fall in January. In March, they plunged 21.5% m/m and were down 6.3% from a year earlier.

In March, permits fell in each of the four major regions. In the Northeast, permits plunged 29.0% m/m in March following a 5.9% monthly gain in February. In the Midwest, permits declined 3.1% m/m in February and another 2.3% m/m in March. In the South, permits slumped 7.7% m/m in March but this following a 11.8% monthly jump in February. The March decline was the third in the past four months. In the West, permits fell 14.2% m/m in March following a 21.8% monthly surge in February and a 13.8% m/m slump in January.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Data for both February and March were included in today’s report to catch up from delays due to the federal government shutdown last October.
- Starts fell 3.0% m/m in February but rebounded 10.8% m/m in March.
- The 7.2% q/q increase in Q1 was the largest quarterly gain since the economy reopened after the pandemic shutdown in 2020.
- In contrast, permits jumped 11.0% m/m in February but fell 10.8% m/m in March and were up only 1.0% q/q in Q1.

U.S. Housing Starts Fell in February but Rebounded in March

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