Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Elevated energy prices putting intense upward pressure on input prices around the globe

Sandy Batten

260602X5.jpg

260602Y5.jpg

Total job openings jumped 10.6% m/m (7.3% y/y) to 7.618 million in April, the highest level since May 2024, from a slightly upwardly revised 6.887 million in March (previously 6.866 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Accordingly, the job openings rate (the ratio of openings to nonfarm employment plus openings) rose to 4.6% in April, its highest reading since November 2024, from an upwardly revised 4.2% in March (previously 4.1%). In April, while both the number of job openings and the number of unemployed both rose, the number of openings rose much more, leaving the number of openings above the number of unemployed for the first time in ten months, another sign that previously observed softening of labor market conditions may be stabilizing.

An 11.1% m/m jump (8.9% y/y) in private sector openings to 6.841 million, the highest level since March 2024, led the overall rise. The private sector openings rate to 4.8% in April from 4.4% in March. Gains in openings were widespread across major industries with only accommodation and food services (-74k, their third consecutive monthly decline) experiencing a monthly decline in April. Leading the rise was a 668k jump in professional and business openings, by far the largest monthly gain in the series history, more than offsetting an outsized 256k decline in March. Construction and manufacturing openings rose for the second consecutive month. Total government openings increased 47K to 777k in April, their fourth monthly increase in the past five months, with a 30k increase in state and local government openings.

In contrast to the surge in openings, total hiring fell 7.6% m/m (-419k) to 5.116 million in April from a slightly downwardly revised 5.535 million in March (previously 5.554 million). The hiring rate slumped to 3.2% in April from 3.5% in March. Private sector hiring declined 423k to 4.794 million with the private sector hiring rate falling to 3.5% from 3.9% in March. Declines were widespread across major industries with only construction (+17k) and arts and entertainment (+25k, the first monthly gain in five months) posting increases. Government hiring increased 5k following a 15k decline in March.

Total separations fell 7.4% m/m (-399k) to 4.978 million in April, the lowest level since August 2020, with declines in quits (-183k), layoffs (-192k) and other separations (-23k). The separation rate fell to 3.1%, the lowest since March 2013, from 3.4% in March. Private separations plunged 413k in April, the largest monthly decline since January 2021, reflecting a 204k drop in private quits and a 194k decline in private layoffs. The decline in layoffs was concentrated in retail trade (-88k, the first monthly decline in three months) and in professional and business services (-112k). The April decline in private quits was rather widely spread across major industries, led by an 83k decrease in trade, transportation and utilities with only construction (+6k) posting a monthly increase. One implication of the widespread decline in quits is that workers do not feel comfortable with their employment prospects and hence are choosing to remain in their current job.

On the whole, employers remain cautious in hiring. Furthermore, workers are sufficiently unsure of their alternative employment prospects that they are refraining from leaving their current position. Amid all this caution on the part of both employers and workers, openings have gradually risen since the end of last year.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. 

- Openings increased to their highest level since May 2024.
- However, hiring slumped, reversing most of the March increase.
- Separations fell with declines in quits, layoffs and other separations.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings Rose and Hires Fell in April

Robert Brusca

260602E.jpg

The chart shows European Monetary Union inflation using seasonally adjusted data to produce 12-month, 6-month, and 3-month compounded annual rates of change for the core, yielding a clear picture of acceleration. The core rate is supposed to be relatively less affected when energy prices spurt. However, in this case, the increase in energy prices is so large that it is being passed on across commodity classes because of its impact on transportation costs, an effect that is ubiquitous.

Every product must be brought to market, and apart from that, products have different intrinsic exposures to energy as a direct or indirect input, either because it's a chemical, it uses plastic, or it's more insulated as a service. However, the impact on transportation costs is broad.

The table shows year-over-year inflation monthly, and there you can see that the headline is moving up more than the core. However, the core rate is moving up, and at 2.5%, it's far enough above the ECB's 2% target for it to be considered too strong. The headline rate in May at 3.2% is considerably higher and stronger, but it's also more affected by energy prices and therefore it may represent something the ECB could view with a bit more flexibility. However, the strength in the core is going to cause the ECB more problems.

Along the bottom of the table, we look at the details on inflation to see the incidence of acceleration of inflation over three-month and six-month periods to give trends a bit of breathing room to develop. For both the headline and the core, the breadth of inflation is rising. Headline and core measures both are rising in nearly two-thirds of the categories (62.5%).

We take a broader look to see where inflation ranks historically on data back to 2001. The headline measure has inflation at the 88.5 percentile, while core is at the 86.2 percentile. Both demonstrate considerable strength in May. Looking at the details by category by stepping back one month to April, we find that one of the highest standings for inflation is in transportation, which is no surprise given what's going on with energy prices. Communications products, however, have a high inflation at their 98.7 percentile. Personal care products have a standing on their 92nd percentile, another high standing. Inflation for recreation and culture has a relatively low standing in its 36th percentile, and house furniture and maintenance prices have only a 16.4 percentile standing.

There are differences in inflation rates and inflation pass-throughs from energy effects. But the dispersion of inflation is only about a top one-third phenomenon—high but not extreme. That suggests that the impact on inflation, while significant, is not—at least not yet—dominant. We'll be watching indicators like this to get some idea of how impactful and broad the effects of inflation from the Middle East conflict are and how they will develop. For now, the impact is substantial and still seems to be in full swing.

260602.jpg

Europe

EMU Inflation Accelerates 

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we examine a tale of two halves between China and India, highlighting the contrasting relationship between economic fundamentals and currency performance in Asia’s two largest emerging economies. In China, a recent run of softer economic data has pointed to slowing growth (chart 1), yet the Chinese yuan has remained one of the region’s strongest-performing currencies this year (chart 2). India presents the opposite picture: economic growth prospects remain among the brightest in Asia, but the Indian rupee has continued to face downward pressure amid persistent foreign investor outflows and a marked decline in central bank foreign exchange reserves (chart 3).

Beyond China and India, the broader region is also confronting emerging inflation risks. In addition to elevated energy prices stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, concerns are growing over the potential development of a “Super El Niño” event, which could weaken agricultural output and add further inflationary pressure through the food channel (chart 4). At the same time, the battle between inflation concerns and AI-driven optimism continues to shape market sentiment. Equity markets in major AI beneficiaries such as Taiwan and South Korea have seen their market capitalisations surpass those of several larger developed markets, including Germany (chart 5). 

Moreover, the benefits of the current AI investment cycle are not confined to the region’s technology leaders. Economies such as Thailand are also seeing positive spillovers from the current AI investment cycle. In particular, Thailand has recorded a surge in FDI linked to investments in digital infrastructure and AI-related industries (chart 6). Countries across the region are increasingly positioning themselves to participate in the ongoing buildout phase.

**China**
China’s unofficial manufacturing PMI was released earlier in the week, showing a pullback to 51.8 in May (chart 1), though it remained in expansionary territory. The decline mirrors the weakness seen in the official PMI readings and was accompanied by a sharp drop in new export orders, which fell into contractionary territory for the first time in months. These developments come amid a run of disappointing economic data from China, with growth slowing even in the export-oriented industrial sector, generally regarded as a stronger driver of activity than more domestically focused sectors. This perhaps suggests that while China may be relatively insulated from the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure compared with other Asian economies, such insulation is not complete, and some adverse spillovers are nonetheless becoming apparent.

260602T1.jpg

Yet despite signs of slowing growth in China’s recent data releases, the yuan has continued to trend higher (chart 2), making it the best-performing Asian currency year-to-date. Observers have attributed the yuan’s relative strength to several factors. These include resilient export growth, particularly in higher-value-added goods, as well as possible safe-haven inflows amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Some have also pointed to weakness in the currencies of several of China’s major trading partners as a contributing factor. In contrast, the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah have been among the region’s weakest performers this year. For the rupiah, much of the depreciation has been linked to concerns over Indonesia’s economic outlook, particularly on the fiscal front, as authorities pursue costly policy initiatives alongside broader policy changes that may have unsettled investors. India’s situation is examined in greater detail in the next section.

260602T2.jpg

**India**
In contrast to the Chinese yuan, India’s rupee has depreciated. While the yuan has strengthened this year despite recent signs of slowing growth in China, the rupee has remained under pressure despite robust actual and expected growth in the Indian economy. In fact, the rupee’s weakness has been relatively persistent, dating back to the period when US tariff announcements—and the broader threat of escalating trade tensions—first began unsettling financial markets. The currency has remained weak despite a range of measures introduced by Indian authorities, including suspected stabilisation interventions in the foreign exchange market and restrictions on gold imports, among other steps. Even so, continued investor outflows throughout the year (chart 3) have contributed to sustained downward pressure on the rupee. Meanwhile, the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves have fallen markedly from the peaks reached earlier in the year.

260602T3.jpg

**Possible El Nino effects**
While the world continues to grapple with the inflationary consequences of the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, new inflation risks are already emerging on the horizon. In particular, concerns have recently grown over the potential development of a “Super El Niño” event in the coming months. Should such an event materialise, higher temperatures and reduced rainfall could weigh on agricultural production across parts of Asia. This would create an additional supply-side shock for the region, exerting upward pressure on food prices at a time when inflation concerns are already elevated. Indeed, food price pressures are beginning to emerge even before any material impact on crop production has been observed, as anticipatory buying has started to lift prices. As shown in chart 4, previous El Niño episodes have been associated with weaker agricultural output in parts of Asia, including lower rice production in Thailand. However, the effects have varied considerably across countries and crops, extending well beyond Thailand and rice alone.

260602T4.jpg

**AI optimism**
Inflationary risks continue to build, whether from elevated oil prices linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure, the prospect of weaker crop yields, or other factors. Yet the tug-of-war between inflation concerns on one side and AI optimism on the other remains ongoing. In some Asian equity markets, notably South Korea and Taiwan, AI-driven enthusiasm has fuelled substantial capital gains, lifting overall market capitalisation to levels that have already surpassed those of several major markets, including Germany’s (chart 5). Much of this rise has been driven by capital appreciation alone, underscoring the sheer scale of the current AI-driven rally and highlighting its potential macroeconomic implications, including possible wealth effects on consumption and investment.

260602T5.jpg

Nor are the benefits of AI-driven optimism confined to the sector’s largest players and producers. Other parts of Asia, including Southeast Asia, are also benefiting from the ongoing AI investment cycle and infrastructure buildout. As shown in chart 6, Thailand’s Board of Investment recorded a sharp increase in approved foreign direct investment (FDI) last year, driven primarily by digital industries. These investments were concentrated in areas such as data centres and cloud services, underscoring Thailand’s efforts to expand its AI-related infrastructure and increase its exposure to a rapidly growing sector. Notably, investment approvals in digital industries far exceeded those directed towards most other sectors. Thailand is not alone in this regard. Similar AI-related infrastructure buildouts are underway, albeit at different scales and stages of development, across several Southeast Asian economies, including Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

260602T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Two Halves, Emerging Risks

Winnie Tapasanun

260601N49.jpg

260601O49.jpg

The value of construction put in place rose a more-than-expected 0.4% m/m in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,172.4 billion following a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in March (+0.6% initially) and a downwardly revised 0.8% decline in February (-0.2% previously), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. A 0.3% m/m April increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 0.9% in April, the strongest since December, from 0.6% in March (-2.4% in April 2025), though remaining well below a high of 12.9% in December 2023 and a peak of 18.4% in April 2022.

Private construction rose 0.4% (0.0% y/y) to $1,639.7 billion in April following a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in March (+0.8% initially) and two consecutive m/m declines. Residential private construction climbed 0.8% (1.7% y/y) to $909.9 billion in April after a downwardly revised 0.6% gain in March (+1.7% initially). Single-family building grew 1.4% (-2.9% y/y), the fourth m/m increase in five months, after a 2.1% March rebound; it was 45.7% of the residential private construction. Home improvement building rose 0.4% (7.5% y/y), the first m/m rise in four months, after a 0.8% March drop; it was 41.5% of the residential private construction. Multi-family building, however, fell 0.3% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m fall since January, reversing a 0.2% March increase; it was 12.7% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction declined 0.2% (-2.1% y/y) to $729.8 billion in April following a 0.4% decrease in March (-0.2% initially) and little change in the prior two months. The April decline reflected m/m drops in nonresidential private construction categories for manufacturing (-1.2%; -18.5% y/y), commercial (-0.7%; +1.5% y/y), and amusement & recreation (-0.6%; +11.0% y/y). To the upside, several nonresidential private constructions rose m/m in April, led by office (+1.0%; +9.4% y/y), followed by transportation (+0.7%; +4.7% y/y), utilities (+0.6%; +6.0% y/y), educational (+0.5%; +6.3% y/y), religious (+0.5%; +20.3% y/y), lodging (+0.3%; +5.4% y/y), communication (+0.1%; +2.6% y/y), and health care (+0.1%; +1.9% y/y).

The value of public construction rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) to $532.7 billion in April, the fourth successive m/m rise, after an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in March (-0.2% initially), reflecting gains of 0.7% (1.3% y/y) in residential public construction and 0.4% (3.7% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. Several nonresidential public construction categories rose m/m in April, led by conservation & development (+5.0%; +17.5 y/y), followed by commercial (+2.8%; -10.9% y/y), public safety (+1.8%; +2.9% y/y), health care (+1.4%; +6.0% y/y), office (+1.3%; -2.9% y/y), utilities (+1.1%; +13.9% y/y), and educational (+0.6%; +1.2% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which accounted for 28.1% of public construction spending, advanced 0.4% (3.9% y/y), the sixth straight m/m gain, following a 0.1% March uptick. In contrast, the following public constructions fell m/m in April, led by amusement & recreation (-1.1%; +5.0% y/y), followed by transportation (-0.8%; +2.4% y/y), sewage & waste disposal (-0.7%; +6.1% y/y), and water supply (-0.2%; +4.8% y/y).

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

260601P49.jpg

260601Q49.jpg

- Headline +0.4% m/m in Apr., second straight monthly rise; +0.9% y/y, highest since Dec.
- Residential private construction +0.8% m/m, driven by a 1.4% gain in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.2% m/m, second consecutive monthly decline.
- Public construction +0.4% m/m, led by a 0.7% rebound in residential public building.

U.S. Construction Spending Up for Second Straight Month After Two Prior Monthly Declines

260601E.jpg

Manufacturing PMIs continue to show an uptrend in place. The median estimate for the 18 early reporting countries of manufacturing data is 51.6. It shows expansion at a relatively weak pace, with a slight month-to-month backtracking in the overall median reading for the 18 countries. That median fell by 0.8 points month-to-month. However, the broader readings over three months, six months, and 12 months each are above 50, and each of them shows an increase compared to the previous period. So, while there was a minor monthly setback, the overall reading shows conditions are broadly improving, and output is advancing, in manufacturing. Over a longer time horizon, changes over three months, six months and 12 months are on an improving path.

Diffusion statistics that show that proportion of readings that are getting better reveal a split of 50/50 month-to-month. However, over three months, 66.7% of reporters are improving; over six months compared to 12 months, 72.2% are improving; and over 12 months compared to a year ago, 77.8% are improving. Momentum remains in an upward direction over various horizons even in the face of month-to-month volatility in readings.

The bottom of the table shows grouped results for different batches of countries. The developed country group—the U.S., the U.K., the European Monetary Union, Canada, and Japan—show an improvement over 12 months, six months, and three months. The Asian average shows the same conditions holds with continued improvements in train. However, the BRIC countries show more stasis, with their PMI readings not clearly advancing and hovering just short of an average value of 51 on their pooled diffusion gauge.

The ranked percentile standings have made a great deal of progress over recent months. Currently, the median standing of the full-period medians for the 18 countries in the table shows an 84.7 percentile standing, which is quite impressive. Only five countries—Russia, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Mexico—have ranked standings below their medians on data back to 2022.

The PMIs remain relatively upbeat this month despite the ongoing war in Ukraine and in the Middle East, and the constraint on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The manufacturing sector is showing surprising resiliency in the face of these hurdles for data up to date through May.

260601.jpg

Manufacturing PMIs Show Continued Resilience

260529H15.jpg

260529I15.jpg

The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods unexpectedly narrowed to $82.40 billion in April after widening to a three-month-high $85.27 billion in March, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The April reading, the first narrowing in the goods trade deficit in three months, was smaller than a $85.71 billion shortfall in April 2025. A deficit of $88.2 billion for April had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a recent low of $57.95 billion in October 2025 (the smallest since March 2016) and a record-high $161.50 billion in March 2025.

In Q1'26, the goods trade deficit widened to $247.94 billion after narrowing to $239.27 billion in Q4'25; the monthly deficit averaged $82.65 billion in Q1'26, up from $79.76 billion in Q4'25. In real terms, the goods trade deficit subtracted 1.20%-point from real GDP growth in Q1'26 after having added 0.13%-point in Q4'25.

Total goods exports, up for the fourth straight month, advanced 4.0% m/m (15.6% y/y) to a record-high $219.67 billion in April, on top of a 2.9% increase to $211.20 billion in March. Exports were up 35.2% from a June 2023 low. The m/m gain in exports in April reflected m/m rises of 7.8% (6.8% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 7.5% (20.6% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, 4.5% (8.2% y/y) in other goods, and 2.1% (17.8% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials. To the downside, exports of automotive vehicles & parts (-2.8%; +5.6% y/y) and foods, feeds & beverages (-0.3%; +9.5% y/y) declined m/m in April.

Total goods imports, up for the third consecutive month, rose 1.9% m/m (9.6% y/y) to $302.07 billion in April, after a 3.3% rise to $296.47 billion in March, marking the highest level since the March 2025 record high of $343.82 billion. Imports were up 20.1% from a June 2023 low. The m/m rise in imports in April reflected m/m increases of 7.5% (19.6% y/y) in other goods, 5.6% (40.1% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 0.3% (-5.5% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages. In contrast, imports of industrial supplies & materials (-1.9%; +2.2% y/y), automotive vehicles & parts (-1.5%; +4.6% y/y), and nonfood consumer goods excluding autos (-1.0%; -19.8% y/y) fell m/m in April.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Deficit: $82.4 bil. in April, down $2.9 bil. (-3.4%) from March’s $85.3 bil.
- Exports +4.0%, fourth straight m/m gain to a record level, driven by a 7.8% rebound in nonauto consumer goods exports.
- Imports +1.9%, third consecutive m/m rise to highest level since Mar. ’25, led by a 7.5% recovery in imports of other goods.

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows in April After March Widening

260529E.jpg

In the post-COVID cycle, inflation in Italy hit its low point early in 2023 and then again late in 2024. However, for the other large monetary union economies, France, for example, inflation hit its low point early in 2026 at a pace of about 1.1%. Germany, the traditional low-inflation country in the monetary union, has had more difficult times with inflation post-COVID. For this reason, the low point for German inflation came early in 2026 (and in mid-2025 at 1.9%). For France and Italy, headline inflation began escalating very early in 2026. For Germany, the escalation was a little later, and the spiky part of inflation was blunted on the early side; inflation has actually tipped slightly lower now, in May. However, despite these differences in timing, the overpowering sense is that inflation in the large countries has turned higher early in the year, and the European Central Bank will have some decisions to make.

**Month-to-month price changes**
In May, inflation decelerated in Germany, with the month-to-month observation going unchanged. Headline prices in Spain rose by 0.2%, in France by 0.3%, and in Italy by 0.4%. German prices excluding energy have been making steady gains for the last several months, rising by 0.2% in May; Italian core prices rose by 0.4% after being flat in April and declining sharply in March; in Spain, the core CPI rose by 0.2% for the second month in a row.

The monthly statistics on inflation from the headlines and core rates for these countries are not off-the-charts or particularly troublesome. However, when put in context in terms of 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month inflation rates, the headlines and the cores trace more disturbing patterns.

**Sequential trends in the HICPs**
Headline inflation for these countries shows over three months that inflation has a rate excessive relative to the ECB's target for the European Monetary Union as a whole. There are no country-by-country targets from the ECB, only an objective for the union-wide result. German inflation over three months is the weakest, as it logs a 4% annual rate. Italian inflation is the strongest, rising at an 8.6% annual rate. Over six months, inflation is excessive in all four of these countries. The weakest gain is in Germany at 2.4% at an annual rate; the strongest is in Italy at a 5.9% annual rate. Over 12 months, inflation is also excessive across the board relative to the ECB's overall monetary union target of 2%. The weakest gain in 12-month inflation is Germany at 2.6%, while the strongest is Spain at 3.6%. Additionally, inflation is accelerating from 12-months to six-months to three-months in both France and Italy. Although inflation is not accelerating in that three-period sequence for Germany and Spain, it is not far from doing so. All of these are going to be uncomfortable metrics for the European Central Bank to navigate. These are the headline rates for the large EMU countries, and they are clearly being pushed up by energy prices on the constriction of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

**Core and ex-energy inflation trends**
Three of the four largest EMU economies give us either core inflation or inflation excluding energy metrics. On that basis, two of three economies, Germany and Spain, show excessive inflation over three months annualized, at 2.7% for Germany and 3.4%, for Spain. We compare them to the target set by the ECB for the European Union overall. Italy is the exception, with core inflation falling 0.4% at an annual rate over three months. Over six months, Germany, Italy, and Spain all have core inflation rates at or above 2%. Italy's rate comes in at 2%, Germany's ex-energy rate is at 2.2% annualized, while Spain’s CPI core checks in at 3% inflation. Over 12 months, inflation in Germany excluding energy is 2.3%, in Spain the CPI core runs 2.9%, while in Italy, inflation is still restrained for the core measure at a 1.8% annual rate.

Headline inflation and rising energy prices clearly are generating pressures such that even the core conditions aren't looking good. Core inflation rates above 3%, as we see in Spain across nearly all three timelines, are disturbing to the monetary authority. German inflation is moderate at 2.2% over six months and 2.3% over 12 months, but then it rises to a more disturbing 2.7% over three months. So far, Italian inflation is not an issue, at 1.8% over 12 months, 2% over six months, and even declining at a 0.4% annual rate over three months.

260529.jpg

**Summing up**
The ECB, of course, makes policy for the whole of the area, so these individual country results are inputs that the ECB will look at, but it is much more concerned with what happens to inflation for the euro area as a whole. We can see from these large countries that there is a considerable amount of inflation percolating and that the energy price increases have not been confined to impacting the headline. Also, since the ECB has been overshooting its inflation target, it has to be careful about cutting any slack for dealing with inflation when it becomes excessive. Inflation has started to accelerate in France and in Italy, at least at the headline level; the core shows accelerating inflation only for Spain. These are conditions the ECB is going to have to be sensitive to.

EMU Early Inflation Readings Rise in Large Countries

Andrew Cates

**Europe’s vulnerability to high energy prices**
The latest flash PMI data continue to highlight a highly uneven global economy. India remains exceptionally strong, while the US and Japan continue to outperform most other advanced economies. By contrast, much of Europe remains considerably weaker, with France particularly soft and both Germany and the broader euro area struggling. In many respects, this divergence increasingly reflects Europe’s heightened sensitivity to elevated energy prices and, probably, its weaker exposure to the global AI investment boom currently supporting activity elsewhere. Europe remains far more vulnerable to higher imported energy costs, while the US and parts of Asia continue benefiting from stronger technology investment cycles, semiconductor demand and AI-related infrastructure spending.

260528Z1.jpg

**Higher energy prices continue to squeeze US consumers**
That said, rising gasoline prices in the US are clearly weighing on household sentiment. Consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan survey, has fallen sharply even as labour markets remain relatively resilient, underscoring how sensitive households might be to renewed energy-related inflation fears. Yet this also reinforces an important counterpoint to the current inflation narrative. Unlike during the immediate post-pandemic period — when households were benefiting from extraordinary fiscal transfers, ultra-loose monetary policy and strong nominal income growth — consumers today appear more cautious and demand conditions far less exuberant.

260528Z2.jpg

**Not yet another pandemic-era liquidity shock**
Indeed, and as noted above, one of the most important differences between today’s inflation fears and the post-pandemic inflation surge concerns the underlying monetary backdrop. During the Covid pandemic, central banks massively expanded their balance sheets while governments simultaneously delivered extraordinary fiscal stimulus. That combination arguably helped fuel excess liquidity, surging demand and ultimately broad-based inflationary pressures. Today, however, the picture looks fundamentally different. Central bank balance sheets across the US, euro area and Japan are no longer expanding at anything like the pace seen during the pandemic period, with reduced asset purchases contributing to a much less supportive global liquidity backdrop.The global economy is therefore entering this latest energy shock against a backdrop of greater monetary restraint, or, at the least, far less extreme monetary accommodation.

260528Z3.jpg

**Broad money supply growth is not (yet) amplifying inflation concerns**
The contrast becomes even more striking when looking at broad money growth. Broad money growth across the major economies has slowed dramatically from the extraordinary rates seen during the pandemic period. In both the US and euro area, monetary growth remains subdued, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a much less supportive liquidity backdrop. This matters because periods of sustained inflation persistence have historically been associated not simply with commodity price spikes, but with strong underlying money and credit growth supporting broader demand conditions. Today’s monetary backdrop looks – for the time being - far less consistent with the kind of prolonged inflation spiral feared by many investors.

260528Z4.jpg

**AI investment is becoming a full-scale infrastructure cycle**
At the same time, however, the global growth outlook is not being shaped solely by cyclical weakness and tighter monetary conditions. There remains one extraordinarily important countervailing force: the ongoing AI infrastructure boom. The scale of investment associated with artificial intelligence increasingly resembles a modern industrial boom rather than a conventional software cycle. Real US private investment in data centres has surged dramatically as hyperscalers race to build computational capacity, cloud infrastructure and AI training systems. Yet perhaps equally striking is the parallel surge in water supply construction spending. One of the great misconceptions surrounding AI is that it somehow belongs to a virtual economy detached from physical resource constraints. In reality, AI infrastructure is extraordinarily resource intensive, requiring vast quantities of electricity, cooling systems, water infrastructure and industrial-scale construction. Increasingly, the AI boom is colliding directly with broader questions surrounding energy systems, utility capacity and physical infrastructure constraints.

260528Z5.jpg

**The AI cycle continues to drive global trade and investment**
Finally, the implications of this infrastructure boom are increasingly becoming visible globally through the semiconductor supply chain. South Korea’s semiconductor sector continues to provide one of the clearest real-time indicators of the scale and intensity of AI-related investment demand. Semiconductor export growth has accelerated sharply, while producer prices for semiconductors have also surged, reflecting exceptionally strong global demand for advanced chips, memory systems and computational infrastructure. In many respects, this remains the key counterweight supporting global equity markets and broader investor optimism despite ongoing geopolitical and inflation concerns. Even as parts of the global economy slow under the weight of higher energy prices, the AI-driven capex cycle continues to fuel trade, infrastructure spending and corporate earnings. Increasingly, markets appear willing to tolerate elevated bond yields, geopolitical tensions and energy volatility because investors remain convinced that AI-related productivity gains and infrastructure investment could ultimately transform the medium-term growth outlook. The result is a global economy increasingly caught between two competing forces: old-world supply-side inflation risks and one of the largest technology-driven investment booms in modern history.

260528Z6.jpg

The global macro backdrop remains dominated by instability in the Middle East and the lingering inflation concerns associated with elevated energy prices. Yet recent days have at least offered some tentative relief. Oil prices have softened amid heightened hopes that negotiations between the US and Iran could eventually ease tensions and help stabilise energy markets, even if the broader geopolitical situation remains fragile and key shipping routes continue to face disruption. Against this backdrop, the latest survey data continue to highlight an uneven global economy, with Europe looking particularly vulnerable given its greater sensitivity to higher energy costs and its weaker links to the global AI investment boom (chart 1). At the same time, rising gasoline prices continue to weigh heavily on US household confidence (the Michigan measure), raising concerns about the resilience of consumer demand (chart 2). An important question confronting markets in the meantime is whether inflation fears are now becoming overstated. Unlike during the post-pandemic inflation shock, central bank balance sheets are now shrinking rather than expanding aggressively, while money supply growth remains relatively weak across many major economies (charts 3 and 4). Meanwhile, the extraordinary boom in AI-related infrastructure spending — spanning data centres, utilities, water systems and semiconductors — continues to provide a major offset to broader macroeconomic weakness and remains a key pillar supporting global equity markets despite elevated geopolitical and inflation concerns (charts 5 and 6).

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/6tVWe2AWqCqzYCfc0lU2qB?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: The AI Boom Meets Inflation Angst

large_260604N4.jpg

medium_260604N4.jpg

small_260604N4.jpg

thumbnail_260604N4.jpg

260604N4.jpg

large_260604O4.jpg

medium_260604O4.jpg

small_260604O4.jpg

thumbnail_260604O4.jpg

260604O4.jpg

Growth of nonfarm business productivity (output per hour) was revised down more than expected in Q1 to 0.3% q/q saar from 0.8% previously and 1.6% in Q4. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.7% quarterly increase in productivity. Compared to a year ago, productivity rose 2.8% y/y in Q1 (revised down from 2.9% previously), up from 2.5% in Q4. Since productivity growth began to accelerate at the beginning of 2023, it has grown at a well above trend 2.6% annual rate, likely a reflection of AI and other technology advances. Strong productivity is a key factor for boosting real incomes and restraining inflation pressures.

Growth in nonfarm business output (not quite the same as real GDP) was revised down to 1.0% q/q saar in Q1 from 1.5% in the previous estimate. This was in line with the previously announced downward revision in Q1 real GDP growth to 1.6% from 2.0% in the first estimate. Growth in hours worked was not revised at 0.7%. However, compensation growth was revised down markedly in both Q1 and last year’s Q4. For Q1, compensation growth was revised down to 2.1% from 3.1% in the first estimate. The revision for Q4 was even larger with compensation growth revised to 3.7% from 6.3% previously. These revisions in compensation led to similarly large downward revisions to growth of unit labor costs. Unit labor costs rose 1.8% in Q1 versus 2.3% in the first estimate and 2.1% in Q4 versus 4.6% in the previous estimate. Accordingly, the annual rate of growth of unit labor costs slowed to 0.5% y/y in Q1, the slowest annual pace since Q3 2019 and generally supports what former Fed Chair Powell has noted several times: that the labor market is not a source of the recent rise in US inflation.

Manufacturing productivity growth in Q1 was also revised down, to 3.2% q/q saar from 3.6% in the first estimate. However, in contrast to the revision to nonfarm productivity, the downward revision to manufacturing productivity was due to an upward revision in hours worked with no revision to manufacturing output (up 3.3% in both estimates). Hours worked were revised to unchanged from a 0.4% decline in the first estimate. Growth in manufacturing compensation was also revised down to 5.5% from 6.1%. The larger downward revision to compensation than to productivity resulted in the growth in manufacturing unit labor cost being revised down to 2.2% from 2.4% previously. This was down sharply from 8.8% unit labor cost growth reported for Q4, revised down 9.8%.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

large_260604P4.jpg

medium_260604P4.jpg

small_260604P4.jpg

thumbnail_260604P4.jpg

260604P4.jpg

large_260604Q4.jpg

medium_260604Q4.jpg

small_260604Q4.jpg

thumbnail_260604Q4.jpg

260604Q4.jpg

- Q1 output per hour growth was revised down to 0.3% q/q saar in the second estimate from 0.8% in the first, reflecting a downward revision to output.
- However, longer-term productivity growth remained solidly well above trend.
- Compensation growth was revised down meaningfully, resulting in a downward revision to unit labor cost growth to 1.8% from 2.3% previously.

U.S. Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Cost Growth Revised Down

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

U.S. Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Cost Growth Revised Down

Recent Commentaries

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Jumped in Latest Week

Charts of the Week: Inflation Fears, AI Cheers

Factory Orders: Lots of Noise, but Also Firm Trends in Recent Months

U.S. ADP Private Employment Growth in May Strongest Since Jan. ’25

Composite PMIs Ride Weakening Trend

Featured Data Additions, June 3, 2026

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Elevated energy prices putting intense upward pressure on input prices around the globe

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints