Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

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Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Andrew Cates

**Global shipping costs**
The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index has surged to multi-year highs, reflecting a sharp tightening in global oil shipping markets. The primary driver is the escalation in Middle East tensions, particularly the effective disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for roughly a fifth of global oil trade. Heightened security risks, including missile and drone attacks on vessels and port infrastructure, have forced rerouting, increased insurance premia and reduced effective tanker supply. At the same time, longer voyage distances—especially for Gulf exports diverted around the Cape—are tying up capacity and amplifying rate pressures. The result is a classic squeeze: constrained supply of available ships meeting elevated demand for transport, pushing freight costs sharply higher.

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**Supply Chain Bottlenecks**
Flash PMI data point to a renewed build-up of supply chain pressures across the major economies. Supplier delivery times—where readings below 50 indicate slower deliveries—have deteriorated in both the US and UK, with the latter showing a particularly sharp decline. The euro area, while more stable, is also drifting in the same direction. This broad-based softening suggests that the disruptions visible in energy and shipping markets are now feeding into the real economy. Longer delivery times are typically an early indicator of tightening supply conditions, rising input costs and, ultimately, renewed pipeline inflation pressures. While not yet at the extremes seen during the pandemic, the direction of travel is clear: supply chains are becoming less efficient just as geopolitical risks intensify.

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**Policy Uncertainty Versus Market Volatility**
A striking divergence is emerging between policy uncertainty and financial market volatility. The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has risen sharply, reflecting the intensifying geopolitical backdrop, trade disruptions and an increasingly complex policy environment. By contrast, the VIX—while off its lows—remains relatively contained by historical standards. This gap suggests that financial markets may be underpricing the scale and persistence of current risks. Either uncertainty begins to recede, or market volatility has further to rise. For now, the message is clear: policymakers are operating in a far more uncertain world than markets appear to be discounting.

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**Oil Prices and Monetary Policy** 
The sharp rise in oil prices is once again feeding directly into short-term interest rate expectations, with a strong positive correlation evident between WTI and US 2-year Treasury yields. As energy prices surge, markets are reassessing the near-term inflation outlook and the likely policy response, pushing yields higher. This reflects a familiar dynamic: energy shocks tighten financial conditions not just directly, but via expectations of more restrictive monetary policy. That said, there are important caveats. Medium-term market-based inflation expectations remain relatively well contained, suggesting credibility in central banks’ ability to anchor inflation over time. Moreover, recent communication from Fed Chair Powell indicates that the Federal Reserve is in no immediate hurry to raise rates, pointing instead to a more cautious, data-dependent approach in the face of heightened uncertainty.

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**Loose Labour Markets**
Wage growth across the US, UK and euro area continues to moderate, pointing to a gradual loosening in labour market conditions. The sharp post-pandemic surge in wage pressures—particularly pronounced in the US—has clearly faded, with all three regions now on a downward trajectory. This matters in the current context: while the oil shock is pushing headline inflation higher and complicating the near-term outlook, easing wage dynamics reduce the risk of persistent second-round effects. In turn, this lessens the urgency for central banks to respond aggressively with tighter policy. The result is a more nuanced policy backdrop—one where energy-driven inflation pressures are rising, but underlying domestic cost pressures are moving in the opposite direction.

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**Headline Inflation in Advanced Economies**
Despite the recent energy shock, broader inflation dynamics across advanced economies remain relatively well behaved. The euro area HICP flash estimate rose from 1.9% in February to 2.5% in March, driven largely by higher energy prices. However, core inflation edged down to 2.3% from 2.4%, suggesting that pass-through into underlying price pressures remains limited for now. More generally, inflation across many advanced economies continues to hover close to central bank targets—a marked contrast to the peaks seen in 2022. While higher oil prices will almost certainly continue to lift headline inflation in the near term, and the risk is clearly tilted toward further upside, the broader picture for now remains one of relatively contained underlying pressures. This suggests the current shock is more likely to complicate the disinflation process—potentially slowing or interrupting it—rather than decisively reversing it, though the balance of risks has become less favourable.

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Amid tentative signs of de-escalation from the US administration over the past 48 hours—including suggestions that the conflict with Iran could conclude relatively quickly—financial markets have begun to retrace some of last week’s sharp repricing of Middle East risk. Oil prices have come off their highs, while equities and bonds have rallied as risk premia ease. That said, the earlier phase of the week saw a decisive adjustment: oil surged, front-end yields moved higher, and uncertainty rose as investors grappled with the implications of disrupted energy flows. Even now, the overall adjustment has been uneven—volatility has picked up, but not to levels typically associated with sustained geopolitical stress—raising questions about how fully markets are internalising both the risks and the rapidly shifting outlook. Our charts this week capture these cross-currents. Tanker rates have spiked as shipping routes are disrupted and capacity tightens (chart 1), while PMI delivery times point to early signs of supply chain strain feeding into the real economy (chart 2). At the same time, the divergence between elevated policy uncertainty and relatively contained market volatility suggests there could have been a degree of complacency (chart 3). The rise in oil prices is already feeding into higher short-term yields, though this is being tempered by cooling labour markets, anchored inflation expectations and more cautious central bank signalling (charts 4 and 5). Meanwhile, euro area flash CPI has picked up, but core inflation remains relatively benign, suggesting underlying price pressures are still contained for now (chart 6).

Charts of the Week: Strait Stress

Sandy Batten

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Total retail sales rebounded in February, rising a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m (+3.7% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.1% monthly decline in January (previously -0.2% m/m), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.4% monthly increase. Excluding autos, other sales were up 0.5% m/m (+3.6% y/y), the first monthly increase in three months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.3% m/m increase.

The control group of sales (those categories that the BEA uses to construct PCE in the national accounts) increased 0.5% m/m in February following a 0.2% increase in January. The January/February average for this variable is 2.1% annualized above the Q4 average. In Q4, the control group rose 2.8% saar from Q3. So, today’s figures point to a slight slowdown in PCE growth in the first quarter. Note, however, that the data released today predates the escalation of the conflict between the US/Israel and Iran which has led to a marked rise in gasoline/energy prices. The increase in energy prices to date, if maintained, could stress household finances and thereby significantly slow consumer spending ahead.

Sales of motor vehicles and parts jumped 1.2% m/m in February, their first monthly gain in three months and their largest monthly increase since last July. Furniture sales declined 1.0% m/m in February while sales of electronics and appliances rose 0.5% m/m. Sales of building materials increased 0.4% m/m, their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Sales at health and personal care stores jumped 2.3% m/m, their first monthly gain in five months. Sales at gasoline stations rose 0.9% m/m in February, their third monthly gain in the past four months, ahead of the sharp price increases that occurred in March. Clothing store sales jumped 2.0% m/m, their first monthly increase in three months. Department store sales gained 3.0% m/m, their first monthly increase in four months. Food sales slumped 1.0% m/m in February, their first monthly decline in three months. Sales of nonstore retailers increased 0.7% m/m in February on top of a 1.4% m/m jump in January. Eating out sales rose 0.4% m/m, their first monthly gain in three months.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total sales increased 0.6% m/m after a 0.1% m/m decline in January
- Excluding autos, sales increase 0.5% m/m in February after having been unchanged in January.
- Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.5% m/m in February.

U.S. Retail Sales Rebounded in February

Winnie Tapasanun

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U.S. nonfarm private sector payrolls rose a larger-than-expected 62,000 (0.3% y/y) in March after increases of 66,000 in February (+63,000 initially) and 11,000 in January (unrevised), according to the ADP National Employment Report. The three-month average change was +46,000 in March, up from +38,000 in February and +41,000 in January. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 40,000 increase in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) climbed a solid 85,000 (0.7% y/y) in March—the ninth straight m/m increase and the largest since August—after a 61,000 gain in February (+60,000 initially), with employment in very small firms (1-19 employees) surging 112,000, the strongest m/m rise since February 2024, and employment in small firms (20-49 employees) down 27,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) fell 20,000 (-0.4% y/y) in March following a 6,000 decline in February (-7,000 initially) and two consecutive m/m increases. Large business hiring (500+ employees) slipped 4,000 (+1.0% y/y) after an 11,000 February rebound (+10,000 initially).

Service-producing jobs rose 32,000 (0.5% y/y) in March, the 10th straight m/m gain, on top of a 50,000 advance in February (+47,000 initially). March’s rise was led by education & health services (+58,000), followed by information (+16,000), leisure & hospitality (+7,000), financial activities (+4,000), other services (+4,000), and professional & business services (+1,000). To the downside, m/m employment fell in trade, transportation & utilities (-58,000).

Goods-producing employment advanced 30,000 (-0.4% y/y) in March, the biggest m/m increase since October 2022, after a 16,000 rise in February (unrevised). March’s gain was led by construction (+30,000) and natural resources & mining (+11,000), while manufacturing (-11,000) continued to decline.

By region, nonfarm private payroll employment rose m/m in March in the South (+101,000; +0.5% y/y) and West (+16,000; +0.4% y/y). In contrast, employment fell m/m in the Northeast (-29,000; +0.4% y/y) and Midwest (-26,000; -0.1% y/y).

Wage growth for job changers accelerated to a three-month-high 6.6% y/y in March from 6.3% y/y in February, remaining well below a high of 16.1% in April 2022. Wage growth for job stayers held steady at 4.5% y/y for the third consecutive month in March, holding in a narrow 4.4%-4.5% range since April 2025. Pay growth also remained steady in major industries, including financial activities (5.2% y/y), manufacturing (4.9% y/y), construction (4.7% y/y), leisure & hospitality (4.6% y/y), education & health services (4.3% y/y), and professional & business services (4.3% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Private payrolls +62K in March, ninth straight m/m gain.
- Hiring increase driven by small businesses (+85K), strongest since August.
- Service-sector jobs up (+32K), led by education & health svs. (+58K) and information (+16K), partly offset by trade, transp. & utilities (-58K).
- Goods-producing jobs up (+30K), driven by construction (+30K).
- Wage growth accelerates y/y for job changers (6.6%, a three-month high) but steady for job stayers (4.5%).

U.S. ADP Private Employment Growth in March Above Forecasts

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications dropped 10.4% w/w (+14.2% y/y) in the week ending March 27, after declining 10.5% w/w (+25.5% y/y) in the week ending March 20, and by 10.9% w/w in the week ending March 13, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 2.6% w/w (+0.8% y/y) in the latest week, after dropping 5.4% w/w (+5.0% y/y) in the week ending March 20.  Applications for loan refinancing plunged 17.3% w/w (+33.2% y/y) in the March 27 week, following a drop of 14.6% w/w (+52.2% y/y) in the week ending March 20, and a decline of 18.5% w/w in the week ending March 13.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 14bps to 6.76% in the week ending March 27 from 6.62% in the week ending March 20. The rate on the 30-year fixed-rate loan has risen 52bps since the February 27 week. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 5bps to 6.08% in the latest week from 6.03% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 10bps to 6.71% in the March 27 week from 6.61% in the week ending March 20. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped 12bps to 5.88% in the latest week from 6.00% in the week ending March 20.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan dropped to 45.3% of total applications in the week of March 27 from 49.6% in the March 20 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity eased to 8.0% in the week ending March 27 from 8.1% in the week ending March 20.

The average size of a mortgage loan declined 1.3% w/w (-1.9% y/y) to $389,200 in the week ending March 27, after declining 2.4% w/w (-0.9% y/y) to $394,500 in the week ending March 20. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.8% w/w (+0.4% y/y) to $449,400 in the latest week, after declining 0.5% w/w (+2.3% y/y) to $453,200 in the March 20 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 5.5% w/w (+0.3% y/y) to $316,600 in the March 27 week following a drop of 6.3% w/w (+1.0% y/y) to $334,900 in the March 20 week. Since the week of February 27, the average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage has declined 21.8%.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and for loan refinancing dropped in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose 14bps to 6.76% 
- Average loan size declined.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped in the March 27 Week

Robert Brusca

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The unemployment rate in the European monetary union picked up to 6.2% in February from 6.1% in January, when it had declined from 6.2% in December. The 6.1% reading is the all-time low, so at 6.2% the unemployment rate remains extremely low in the monetary union.

The number of unemployed in February rose by about 1% in both the EU and the monetary union; however, over broader spans of three months, six months, and 12 months, the number of unemployed is still falling.

February is a low month for the number of reporters on the table showing a decline in the unemployment rate. Among the 12 member reporters listed in the table, only Spain had a lower unemployment rate in February than in January, and Spain continues to show declines in unemployment as it also saw its unemployment rate drop in January and December, as well as on balance over three months, six months, and 12 months. Spain is the only country in the monetary union showing this kind of ongoing progress in reducing unemployment.

For the most part, unemployment rates seem to be stuck at relatively low levels among these 12 monetary union reporters. Four show net declines over 12 months, while six show declines over six months and four show declines over three months. Only three—Austria, Finland, and Luxembourg—report unemployment rates that rank above their respective medians, above a ranking of 50% on data back to 2000.

Although the EMU unemployment rate ticked up in February, it remains exceptionally low. Unemployment in Italy also ticked higher and has the exceptionally low ranking of 0.2%, having just moved up from its all-time low. Country-reported unemployment rates are in the bottom 10 percentile of their range over this period in Spain and Greece. You will remember these as the countries with the structurally highest unemployment rates typically in double digits prior to the formation of the European Union; now the Greek unemployment rate is 8.5% and the Spanish unemployment rate is 9.8%, and they are gradually folding into the community norms.

Despite the uptick in the unemployment rate, it's another excellent unemployment report for the monetary union, with unemployment rates below the medians up and down the line with few exceptions and with both countries brandishing unemployment rates that are substantially below their historic medians. Inflation rate in the monetary union remains broadly controlled, and the progress on the unemployment rate has been spectacular. Despite the other problems that the monetary union has encountered, these are true successes of the formation of the monetary union.

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Europe

EMU Unemployment Rate Ticks Up; Still Near All-Time Low

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Total job openings declined 4.9% m/m (-5.0% y/y) to 6.882 million in February from an upwardly revised 7.240 million in January (previously 6.946 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The job openings rate (the ratio of openings to nonfarm employment plus openings) fell to 4.2% in February from an upwardly revised 4.4% in January (previously 4.2%). In February, the number of unemployed increased while openings declined, meaning that the excess of unemployment over openings rose. The number of unemployed has exceeded the number of openings for seven consecutive months, highlighting the softening of labor market conditions over that period.

Private sector openings fell 3.7% m/m (-307k) in February to 6.181 million in January. Accordingly, the private sector openings rate declined to 4.4% from an upwardly revised 4.6% in January (previously 4.4%). Declines were widespread across major industries, led by 213k decline in leisure and hospitality openings. Manufacturing openings fell 71k, the first decline in three months. Construction openings dropped 28k, their third consecutive monthly decline. Private education and healthcare openings declined 78k, their second decline in the past three months. By contrast, professional and business services openings rose 64k in February, their fifth monthly gain in the past six months. Government openings declined 51k, their first monthly decline in three months, led by a 48k drop in state and local government openings.

Total hiring plunged 9.3% m/m (-498k) to 4.849 million in February, the lowest level since April 2020, from 5.347 million in January (previously 5.294 million). The hiring rate slumped to 3.1%, also the lowest since April 2020, from 3.4% in January. Private sector hiring plummeted 503k to 4.523 million with the private sector hiring rate falling to 3.3% from 3.7%. Declines were widespread across major sectors, led by a 185k drop in hiring in leisure and hospitality, a 154k decline in professional and business services hiring, a 103k drop in private education and healthcare hiring and a 88k decline in construction hiring. By contrast, financial activities hiring rose 40k. Government hiring edged up 5k, accounted completely by an 8k increase in state and local government hiring.

Total separations fell 3.4% m/m (-173k) to 4.971 million in February from 5.144 million in January (previously 5.203 million). The separation rate slipped to 3.1% from 3.2%. The February reading was the lowest separation rate since March 2013. Private separations declined 3.4% m/m (-163k) in February to 4.657 million with the private separation rate falling to 3.4% from 3.6%. Separations varied across major sectors. Separations in professional and business services fell 112k while leisure separations declined 111k. By contrast, separations in trade and transportation rose 66k while private education and healthcare separations increased 15k.

Within private sector separations, quits declined 157k, layoffs rose 62k and other separations fell 67k. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Amid the volatility, quits stabilized somewhat last year after having trended down since early 2022. However, they have fallen markedly for two consecutive months, pointing to some recent further softening in labor market conditions. In contrast, layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Even though layoffs have risen in each of the past two months, they have moved little since last fall. Low levels of quits indicate that there is more difficulty finding a new job, while flattish layoffs indicate that firms are less willing to lay off existing workers, a general theme of the current economic environment.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. 

- Openings fell 4.9% m/m to 6.882 million from an upwardly revised 7.240 million in January.
- Hiring plummeted 9.3% m/m to 4.849 million, the lowest reading since April 2020.
- Separations fell 3.4%% m/m to 4.971 million with a decline in Quits and an increase in Layoffs.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings and Hiring Fell in February

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U.S. house prices inched up 0.1% m/m in January after rises of 0.3% in December (+0.1% initially) and 0.6% in November (+0.7% previously), according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. January marked the fifth m/m increase in six months and the smallest of four consecutive m/m gains. The HPI reached a record high of 440.99 in January, up 14.6% from its August 2022 low of 384.71. The year-on-year growth rate decelerated to 1.6% in January—the lowest since February 2012 (-0.2%)—from 1.9% in December (+5.2% in January 2025), remaining down from a high of 6.9% in February 2024 and well below a peak of 18.5% in February 2022.

House prices rose m/m in January (vs. December) in six of the nine census divisions. Gains were led by East South Central (+1.7% vs. -0.2%), followed by Mountain (+0.5% vs. +0.7%), New England (+0.5% vs. +0.3%), West North Central (+0.4% vs. +0.3%), Middle Atlantic (+0.3% vs. +0.8%), and Pacific (+0.2% vs. -0.1%). In contrast, house prices fell m/m in three census divisions in January (vs. December): West South Central (-0.7% vs. -0.4%), South Atlantic (-0.4% vs. +0.3%), and East North Central (-0.1% vs. +0.8%).

Year-on-year house prices continued to rise in January across most regions, except West South Central and Pacific. The y/y pace accelerated in January (vs. December) in three of the nine census divisions: East South Central (+3.5% vs. +2.1%), New England (+3.4% vs. +3.2%), and Mountain (+0.1% vs. -0.5%). Meanwhile, house price growth decelerated y/y in January (vs. December) in West North Central (+3.8% vs. +3.9%), Middle Atlantic (+4.3% vs. +4.6%), and East North Central (+4.4% vs. +5.4%). House prices in South Atlantic were unchanged y/y in January. To the downside, West South Central (-0.8% vs. +0.7%) and Pacific (-0.5% vs. -0.4%) posted y/y declines in January.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

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- FHFA HPI +0.1% (+1.6% y/y) in Jan., the smallest of four straight m/m gains.
- House prices up m/m in six of nine census divisions, led by East South Central (+1.7%), but down in West South Central (-0.7%), South Atlantic (-0.4%), and East North Central (-0.1%).
- House prices up y/y in six of nine regions, led by East North Central (+4.4%), but down in West South Central (-0.8%) and Pacific (-0.5%).

U.S. FHFA House Price Growth Continues to Decelerate in January

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Inflation has begun to flash higher in the euro area as the early inflation indicators in March show an increase of 0.7% month-to-month, even as the core sticks to a low reading of 0.1% in March.

**Large economy HICP headlines show pressure**
The month-to-month increases in the large economies and the monetary union are giving off uncomfortable readings, with Germany posting a 0.9% increase month-to-month, France 0.7%, Italy a more subdued 0.3%, and Spain 0.6%. These numbers help to produce excessive 3-month inflation rates of 4.4% annualized for Germany, 4.5% for France, 3.6% for Italy, and 2.7% for Spain—all of them over the top (that expression, of course, refers to European Central Bank’s inflation objective of 2%).

**Year-on-year trends**
What I listed above are the three-month annualized inflation rates. What the ECB is more interested in is the more-subdued and better-behaved year-over-year rate. On that score, the year-over-year rate is 2.8% for Germany, 2% for France, 1.5% for Italy, and 3.2% for Spain. For the European Monetary Union as a whole, it is 2.5%, while for the EMU core, inflation is 2.2%.

In terms of the year-over-year inflation rates, Germany and Spain are clearly excessive. France is basically on the money for target, while Italian inflation is running cool. GDP-weighted inflation in the monetary union is too high at 2.5%, and on a core basis, it is at what is probably an acceptable 2.2% pace—above target but not demonstrably so.

**Core inflation**
Core inflation or ex-energy inflation, for the three countries that report early show the ex-energy inflation rate for Germany at 2.3% over 12 months; in Italy it is 1.8%, and for Spain it is 2.7%. The core inflation rates are on the high side—not extraordinary, but nevertheless elevated—and the headline inflation rates themselves are accelerating. Looking at the 3-month, 6-month and 12-month inflation rates, we see acceleration in play for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, as well as, for the monetary union as a whole where the 3-month inflation rate has reached 5% annualized (yikes!).

**Oil…no! Don’t blame oil yet—that lies ahead**
We know that oil prices are spurting, but on this timeline ending in March, Brent oil prices measured in euros fell by 2.3%, and year-over-year Brent oil prices are down by 22.6%. So these results are yet to be clobbered by events in the Middle East—events that have lifted oil prices and other energy costs quite dramatically.

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**ECB is on Guard — Christine Lagarde**
It's not surprising that amid these pressures the European Central Bank, as well as the Bank of England, have said that if the war continues at the time of their next meeting, it's likely that they'll hike rates. However, in the United States, the Fed continues to be coy and to give us no guidance and to talk in terms that suggest it is still, in some sense, ‘data dependent’ although this does not seem to be a time to be data dependent. Policymaking now is really a bet on how the war in the Middle East progresses and whether the Strait of Hormuz is going to be opened, and that has very little to do with looking back at past data.

**A new frontier…for some**
Policymaking seems to have moved into a new frontier although it seems clear that all the policymakers have realized this. The Federal Reserve, which usually likes to fancy itself as being on the frontier of what makes good monetary policy, appears to not yet have grasped the realities of this situation. What we have is a situation where a Fed chair has been pursuing a certain policy for a prolonged period—prioritizing the labor market <soft-landing> and downplaying the actual inflation result while portraying himself as following a policy based upon the central bank's forecast for inflation and growth in the future.

**Consistent error and bias**
This unfortunate constellation of events of communication and of poor forecasting has led to five continuous years of inflation overshooting by the Federal Reserve and most other central banks. Let’s admit that when the anchor currency’s policies are adrift, it is harder for others to control their own inflation, rather than giving the Fed ‘a pass’ because global inflation has been high.

**OK…blame events—but blame inaction, too**
While the Fed can look back and blame COVID, blame tariffs, blame the war in Ukraine, and blame problems in the Middle East, it can also look in the mirror and blame itself—time and time again. Through all of these distractions, the Federal Reserve never took its eye off of the job market, always putting priority on jobs while diverting attention from the overshoot of the inflation target. All through this time, the Fed tried to characterize itself as weighting both sides of the dual mandate equally, although with the unemployment rate in the U.S. so low and basically still at a level that could be deemed full employment, and with five years of consistent inflation overshooting and oil prices spurting, the Federal Reserve still isn't ready to say that it's prepared to put its neck on the line to control inflation, or even lean against the wind. What we may be seeing is a replay of the early 1970s, when the Europeans decided that oil price inflation was something they should not ignore, and with the Bundesbank leading the way as interest rates went up, while the Federal Reserve dallied and tried to soften the blow on the economy by raising interest rates less and cutting interest rates early in the process and thereby sealing its own doom in the tomb of excessive inflation.

**Not again**
Christine Lagarde at the ECB has said she does not plan on making the same mistake again. By that, she's referring to the slow rate hikes that the ECB delivered during COVID. To some extent at that time, the ECB, like other central banks, was following the lead of the Federal Reserve that really dragged its feet. Now there is very little evidence that the Fed has learned from that experience.

**The manipulation game**
Between the central bank in the U.S. and the U.S. Treasury, there are serious attempts to try to manipulate inflation expectations to keep them in line and then call them ‘controlled.’ Meanwhile, surveys of inflation expectations, like those from the University of Michigan, show that in some quarters inflation expectations are running wild. Part of the reason for that is noting that central bankers have allowed inflation to overshoot for such a long period of time. So why should they trust the Fed or the ECB over the next 5 or 10 years? They could continue to act this same way for the next five or ten years. The Fed engaged in asset purchases to bring down long-term rates and continues that with ‘QE.’ Now the Treasury has stopped issuing new long-term bonds. This is manipulation.

**What’s next**
Central bankers have a lot to pay attention to, and like the time of the last oil shock in the early 1970s, it looks like—once again—it's the Europeans who want to lead the way toward price stability—not the Americans.

EMU Inflation Surges; Core Clings to Old Trend

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New orders for durable goods fell a more-than-expected 1.4% m/m in February, the fourth monthly fall in five months, after decreases of 0.5% in January (0.0% initially) and 0.9% in December (unrevised), according to today’s advance report by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 1.0% m/m February decline. The year-on-year rate eased to 7.3% in February, the lowest since October, from 9.9% in January, though remaining positive since January 2025. Durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.8% (6.0% y/y) in February, the 10th straight m/m rise, after a 0.3% increase in January. Durable goods orders excluding defense fell 1.2% (+7.3% y/y) following a 0.2% January rebound.

The m/m fall in February durable goods orders was led by a 28.6% m/m plunge in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts following decreases of 1.7% in January and 22.7% in December. Orders for defense aircraft & parts fell 3.8% after a 27.2% January slump and an 11.8% December jump. Orders excluding aircraft rose 1.2% (6.6% y/y), the seventh m/m rise in eight months, after a 0.3% January increase.

Durable goods orders for transportation generally fell 5.4% (+10.1% y/y) in February, the fourth m/m fall in five months, after a 1.9% decline in January. In addition to the drops in nondefense and defense aircraft orders, orders for motor vehicles & parts rose 3.1% (7.6% y/y), the third consecutive m/m rise, after a 0.7% January increase. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances & components slipped 0.1% (+5.0% y/y) following a 1.0% January decline, while orders for primary metals advanced 2.2% (10.2% y/y), the third successive m/m increase, after a 1.1% January rise. Machinery orders climbed 1.5% (9.2% y/y), the 10th straight m/m gain, on top of a 0.6% January increase. Orders for fabricated metal products rose 0.5% (5.4% y/y), the seventh m/m rise in eight months, following a flat January reading. Orders for all other durable goods rose 0.5% (1.3% y/y), up for the sixth consecutive month, after a 0.3% January increase. Meanwhile, orders for computers & electronic products were essentially unchanged (+7.5% y/y) after five straight m/m gains.

Capital goods orders fell 6.6% (+11.5% y/y) in February, the fourth m/m fall in five months, after a 3.0% drop in January. Nondefense capital goods orders slid 7.4% (+9.5% y/y), the fifth m/m slide in six months, after a 1.0% January decrease. Core capital goods orders (i.e., nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft) rebounded 0.6% (5.1% y/y), the seventh m/m rise in eight months, following a 0.4% January decline. Defense capital goods orders fell 1.1% (+25.1% y/y), down for the fourth time in five months, after a 14.2% January drop. Notably, core capital goods shipments (core capex shipments)—a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts—rose 0.9% (5.7% y/y), the fifth m/m increase in six months, after no change in January.

Shipments of all manufactured goods advanced 1.4% (3.5% y/y) in February, the fourth m/m gain in five months, after a 0.7% increase in January. Durable goods shipments rose 1.3% (6.8% y/y), up for the fifth time in six months, after a 0.9% January gain. Nondurable goods shipments climbed 1.4% (0.1% y/y), the third straight m/m rise, after a 0.5% January increase.

Unfilled orders of durable goods edged up 0.1% (11.1% y/y) in February, the seventh straight m/m gain, after a 0.6% rise in January. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders increased 0.2% (1.9% y/y), also up for the seventh consecutive month, following a 0.3% January rise.

Manufacturing inventories inched up 0.1% (0.8% y/y) in February, the fourth straight m/m increase, after a 0.1% uptick in December. Durable goods inventories edged up 0.1% (1.8% y/y) in February, the fifth consecutive m/m increase, after a 0.2% rise in January, while nondurable goods inventories were virtually unchanged (-0.8% y/y) following two successive m/m declines.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Headline orders -1.4% (+7.3% y/y) in Feb., fourth m/m decline in five mths.
- Nondefense aircraft & parts -28.6% m/m following January’s -1.7%.
- Transportation orders -5.4%, down for the fourth time in five mths.; orders ex transportation +0.8%, 10th straight m/m rise.
- Core capital goods shipments +0.9%, fifth m/m gain in six mths.
- Durable goods shipments +1.3%; unfilled orders +0.1%; inventories +0.1%.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall in February, Led by a Plunge in Nondefense Aircraft Orders

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