U.S. Housing Starts Rebound in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Increase recovers half of prior month’s drop.
- Multi-family starts surge but single-family starts fall.
- Building permits rise negligibly after two months of decline.
Total housing starts increased 4.6% (-0.5% y/y) in June to 1.321 million units (SAAR) after falling a little-revised 9.7% in May to 1.263 million, revised from 1.256 million, and rising 3.2% in April to 1.398 million, revised from 1.392, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Total starts in June were 27.4% below their peak of 1.820 million units reached in April 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.30 million starts in June.
Single-family starts in June fell 4.6% (-10.0% y/y) to 883,000 after declining 2.3% in May to 926,000, revised from 924,000, and holding steady at 948,000 in April, revised from 920,000. Multi-family starts rebounded 30.0% in June (26.6% y/y) to 438,000 after declining 25.1% in May to 337,000, revised from 332,000, and increasing 10.6% to 450,000 in April, revised from 472,000.
All of the increase in starts last month was due to a 73.3% surge (52.9% y/y) in the Northeast to 182,000 units, following a decline of 42.6% in May. Offsetting this increase, starts in the South weakened 0.7% (-9.0% y/y) to 674,000 after falling 9.0% in May. Starts in the West declined 1.4% (-1.7% y/y) to 286,000 after rising 22.4% in May. Housing starts in the Midwest declined 5.3% (+1.7% y/y) to 179,000 after falling 18.5% in May.
Building permits improved 0.2% (-4.4% y/y) last month to 1.397 million after falling 2.0% in May and declining 4.0% in April. Single-family permits fell 3.7% (-8.4% y/y) in June to 866,000 after weakening 2.6% in May. Multi-family permits rose 7.3% (+2.9% y/y) after easing 0.8% in May. Building permits fell 11.4% (-7.6% y/y) in the Northeast and in the West, permits fell 5.1% (-9.2% y/y). In the South, building permits rose 4.4% (-4.2% y/y), while in the Midwest, building permits held steady (+4.1% y/y).
The housing starts and building permits figures can be found in Haver’s USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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