Introducing

Robert Brusca

Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.

Publications by Robert Brusca

Europe| Jul 02 2026
Unemployment Remains Quite Low in Europe
Unemployment rates in the European Monetary Union (EMU) were steady in May at 6.2%, the same level as in April, after April had fallen to 6.2% from 6.3%. The 6.2% reading is the lowest for the community since it was formed. Meanwhile, for the larger community, the EU, the unemployment rate has stabilized at 5.9%, the same as in April, again, a tick lower than it was in March. This 5.9% reading is a tick above the historic low for the European Union (EU). In both cases, the performance of these two economic conglomerations is quite excellent.

Monthly The table looks at 12 of the most senior members of the monetary union, including an observation for the United Kingdom based on its claimant-count unemployment rate, presented at the bottom of the table. In May, the monetary union saw 4 of 12 members in the table with lower unemployment rates than they had in April. In April, five members had lower unemployment rates than in March. In March, seven members had lower unemployment rates than they posted in February. The progression to lower unemployment rates has slowed based on monthly data.

Sequentially Looking at changes in the unemployment rates over broader sequential periods—three months, six months, and 12 months—6 out of 12 reporters have lower unemployment rates over three months; 7 have lower unemployment rates over six months; only 4 report unemployment rates that are lower over 12 months. The broader periods for comparison show changes in the unemployment rates that report more declines over the shorter and more recent periods compared to the longer/older periods. This is not the same trend leaning that we get from the last three months of data. It'll be good to watch these developments in the coming months to see if the tendency to lower unemployment rates is slowing or whether dropping unemployment is continuing in force.

Rankings The ranking of unemployment rates since 1990 finds only three of these 12 monetary union members with unemployment rates above their medians. Those are Luxembourg, with a 98.2 percentile standing, Finland with an 81.9 percentile standing, and Austria with a 76.6 percentile standing. Italy, on the other hand, is reporting the lowest unemployment rate that it has seen during this period. The Greek unemployment rate has been this low or lower only about 3% of the time, while in Spain the unemployment rate has been this low or lower 11% of the time. For Portugal, the unemployment ranking figure has been weaker 13% of the time. The monetary union continues to report excellent labor market results even though economic growth has been relatively disappointing.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Jul 01 2026
Mixed but Broad Backtrack in Global Manufacturing in June
The manufacturing PMI values for June showed more worsening than improving, with 10 of 18 reporters showing conditions unchanged or getting worse on a month-to-month basis. However, taking into account the size of the changes across the various reporters, the median PMI rating for manufacturing in June improved to 51.4, an increase of 0.5 points from the month before. The month-to-month deterioration is relatively broad; however, it's also relatively mixed, and when taking the size of the changes into account, there's actually a monthly improvement.

The chart shows that manufacturing has been undergoing improvements generally since late last year, although in the last few months, there has been a topping, a capping, and in some cases a backtracking from the recent high readings. That action reflects the onset of hostilities between the United States and Iran and the on-again, off-again situation with the Strait of Hormuz being open or closed.

Over three months compared to six months ago, the average readings show deterioration in only 5 of 18 reporters. This clearly reflects what we see in the chart, which is a recent improvement over three months compared to six months. The next comparison of 6-month averages to 12-month averages finds that only four reporters are worse off over six months than they were over 12 months. Those four are Mexico, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Over 12 months compared to 12 months ago, conditions are better everywhere except in India.

In addition, we can evaluate the manufacturing performance by ranking the current month's observation in a queue of data back to January 2022, a period of about 4½ years. Viewed over that span, only four countries have readings in June below their period medians. Those are Indonesia, India, Turkey, and Russia. All the rest have readings above the 50th percentile, putting them above their historic medians. Japan has an exceptionally strong reading in June relative to its history, posting a 95.4 percentile standing. Mexico, China, Malaysia, and Taiwan also post strong standings, in their 80th percentile.

The median queue standing for the entire group is a 69.2 percentile standing, which is still quite strong. Other summary measures of sequential diffusion show that the proportion of reporters improving over 12 months is 94.4%, compared to 72.2% over 6 months and 61.1% over 3 months. The breadth of this improvement is shrinking over the near-term horizons; however, the tendency for improvement is unmistakable.

Average readings for certain groups at the bottom of the table show that the United States, the United Kingdom, EMU countries, Canada, and Japan, on an unweighted basis, have steady improvements in place from 12 months to six months to three months, with a one-month reading even stronger. The BRIC countries have readings that are marginally stronger but are staying in a tight low range around 50.8 to 51.5. The Asian average shows an improvement from 12 months to 6 months and then backtracking, with the current 3-month diffusion values just slightly above 51, around 51.5.

The global economy has shown some significant improvement recently in the manufacturing sector, and this has occurred despite the ongoing war in Ukraine and stepped-up hostilities involving Iran, including the on-again, off-again closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have spiked and have since come down substantially. However, the outlook for peace remains clouded as both sides continue to talk positively about an agreement and a ceasefire, then turn around and violate near-term conditions they have set. This makes it very difficult to handicap the future.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Jun 30 2026
Large EU Economies Show Some Inflation Cooling
Some inflation progress, but not enough: The headline HICP in June for the largest monetary union economies have largely broken lower, with the exception of Spain. The German headline HICP fell by 0.1% in June after being flat in May. In France, the price index fell by 0.5% in June after growing by 0.3% in May. In Italy, the June index rose by 0.1% after rising by 0.3% in May. In Spain, June brought a 0.3% increase after a 0.2% increase in May.

Core or ex-energy (Germany): The core inflation readings are available for Germany, Italy, and Spain. In the case of Germany, it's an index excluding energy only. June brought a 0.1% increase for the German index, a 0.1% decline for Italy's core index, and a 0.2% increase for Spain’s core measure. On balance, these are a good collection of results from the standpoint of the ECB that has an inflation target of 2% for the European Monetary Union as a whole, but no guidance for individual countries.

Sequentially: Sequentially, the headline inflation rate shows progress in Germany and France, while excesses are stubborn in Italy and Spain. Over 12 months, all the inflation rates are excessive, but France is only technically excessive and probably acceptable at 2.1% year-over-year. Germany's increase over 12 months is 2.4%, Italy's is 3.1%, and Spain’s is 3.6%. The progression of inflation from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months shows accelerations over six months compared to 12 months for France and Italy, while Germany and Spain show decelerations. However, Spain's six-month inflation rate is still 3.3%. Germany has dropped to 2.2%, France is at 3.3%, and Italy has jumped up to 5.5%. Over three months, the German headline inflation rate is zero and France has fallen to 2%, but in Italy’s headline pace has accelerated to 6.9% and Spain remains at 3.3%. These are all compounded rates of change over three months.

Three-month trends are mixed: None of this is really surprising since oil prices have been surging over the period and are now starting to decline. Over 12 months, the oil price is down by 22.6%; over six months, it’s down by 37% at an annual rate; and over three months, the oil price is flat. Much of this price action is still quite recent. These figures are for Brent crude measured in euros. Over three months, German inflation is flat for the headline HICP, while France’s inflation rate is down to 2%. In Italy, the three-month pace is 6.9%; in Spain it’s at 3.3%. Headline inflation still has a somewhat erratic performance over three months, although it's quite acceptable in Germany and France and quite not acceptable in Italy and Spain.

Core inflation is lower but still too high: Core inflation shows much more moderation because the behavior of energy prices leaves core inflation largely unaffected. If the core is affected, it occurs only after a more substantial knock-on effects from other industries. German ex-energy inflation is at 2.3% over 12 months and then settles down to a 2% annualized pace over six months and three months. Italian core inflation is golden on all three periods, at 1.5% over 12 months, down to 1.4% over six months, and down to 1.2% over three months. Spain's core inflation is excessive, although it is making progress toward a more agreeable rate from a European standpoint. Spain’s core inflation is 2.9% over 12 months, remains at 2.9% over six months, then decelerates to a 2.4% annualized rate over three months.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Jun 29 2026
EU Indexes Show European Improvement in June
Headline indexes for the European Monetary Union improved in June to a reading of 95.0 from 93.7 in May. The index had been stronger at 96.4 in March; however, it fell to 93.3 in April, recovered slightly to 93.7 in May, and has now reached 95.0. While still below its March high, the index has made progress in the wake of the outbreak of war-like conditions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Sector performance The industrial reading for the sector, at -8, has a 36.3 percentile standing, which better than the headline index for the Monetary Union with a 25.4 percentile standing. The EMU-wide sector index, consumer confidence, improved to a net diffusion reading of -17.7 in June from -19 in May, but that still leaves it with a very weak 8.1 percentile standing, the lowest among sector readings. Retailing improved to a net diffusion reading of -10 in June from -11 in May and posted a 38.1 percentile standing. The construction sector deteriorated, falling back to -5 from -4 in May; it has been undergoing steady degradation since at least March, but it still has a 68.4 percentile standing. It is the only sector with a percentile standing above 50, placing it above its historic median. The services sector had a net diffusion reading of +3, identical to its May reading and has a 24-percentile standing.

Sector index ranking The sector readings clearly show that the monetary union is exhibiting a number of sectors with subpar growth; beyond ‘subpar,’ many are quite weak. The exception is—and has been for some time—the construction sector, which continues to perform above average and post an above-median metric. It is, perhaps surprising that we often think of consumer confidence as being relatively forward-looking, but in this schematic, consumer confidence is the weakest of the sectors; in fact, like statistics from the U.S., we find the same prevailing situation with consumer readings exceptionally weak. These weak consumer readings coexist with much stronger retailing readings and stronger industrial readings, although both of those are below their historic medians in Europe. This report is a sort of gut check for what consumer confidence means; it may not be as important as we used to think it was. Although the business cycle at this juncture seems to be concentrated more on the supply side and on recovery in the business community, that effect compounded by the influence of AI is much stronger in the U.S. than in Europe.

Country detail – Large economies The country detail shows 16 of 20 early reporting countries with only one of the top four countries showing a decline month-to-month, and that's France. France recorded a 0.2% decline in June, while Germany posted a 1.9% increase, Italy gained 1.3%, and Spain rose 0.7%. Spain had the lone small decrease in May, while in April all of the large countries showed significant monthly declines in their overall indexes in the wake of the onset of the war with Iran.

Smaller economies in EMU Apart from the Big Four economies, 12 other EMU members report in June; of those, 5 showed month-to-month declines in their country level indexes. This was up from three showing declines in May, although it was a vast improvement from April, when all of the country indexes turned negative and generated substantial month-to-month declines, except for Slovakia and Lithuania.

Big Four economy rankings Among the Big Four economies, the strongest ranking reading in June is Spain at a 52.3 percentile standing, followed by Italy at a 41.6 percentile standing, France at a 22.7 percentile standing, and Germany at an 18.7 percentile standing.

Other economy rankings Among the other 12 countries, the percentile standing readings range from a high of 76.1% for Greece to a low of 9.3% for Austria. Five of 12 of the smaller EMU members have percentile standings of 50% or greater, putting them above their historic medians, while the other 7 have rankings that range from a high of 44.6% in Portugal to a low of 9.3% in Austria.

Summing up Conditions in the monetary union have improved over the last two months after a substantial stumble in the wake of the war in the Middle East with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the rebound in the European recovery is in gear; it is slow and measured. Conditions are still weak on balance.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
France| Jun 26 2026
French Industry and Services Confidence Diverge in June
In June, there's a slight divergence in the performance of industry climate and service sector climate, although broadly the two sectors have seen their composite indexes moving in more or less the same direction. Since 2024, the industry survey has moved up slightly after falling faster than the services gauge. The services survey has been locked in a slow trend of deterioration, largely since it reached a peak in 2021 in the wake of COVID.

The industry climate gauge has a 30.8 percentile standing, but the recent production trend, while declining, logs a more substantial 42.8 percentile standing. Contributing survey members find their own industry ‘likely trend’ much weaker, at a 21.2 percentile standing. Demand overall, however, has standings above the 50th percentile, putting overall and foreign orders & demand each above their respective medians for this period of ranking back to 2001. Inventories have a strong 81-percentile ranking. Prices are extremely strong, with 87-percentile and 86-percentile standings for respondents for their personal industry trend for prices as well as for the overarching manufacturing sector estimate of prices. Higher prices seem to be the one thing that everyone can agree on by a large margin.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Germany| Jun 25 2026
German Confidence Edges Up but Remains in Deep Doldrums
German consumer climate, as measured by the GfK survey for the month ahead of July, posted a reading of -29.2, a slight improvement from -29.7 in June. This is the second consecutive monthly improvement, slight though it may be, in the reading for climate. The ranking of this reading on data back to 2002 finds that it has been weaker only about 4% of the time on this timeline. The reading for climate remains extremely weak in Germany, despite the slight up-creep over the past couple of months.

The components for the climate index are up to date only through June. On that basis, there was a small increase in economic expectations, a small increase in income expectations, and a smaller decline in the rating for the propensity to buy, a consumer spending metric. The reading for economic expectations in June has a 22.4 percentile standing, the reading for income has a 14.6 percentile standing, and the reading for the propensity to buy has a 23.8 percentile standing. All three of these metrics have readings that are in the lower quartile of their range of readings back to 2002. The headline reading is substantially weaker in its ranking than the three components; however, these are for different timelines—the headline is for July, while the components are for June. The weaker climate standing may simply reflect the confluence of the weak readings for these three components, marking that as a more unusual event than the stand-alone rankings of each one by itself. In any event, there is little in the German survey to give much confidence that conditions in Germany are significantly improving, let alone getting better.

The table also includes consumer confidence readings for other EU members, specifically Italy and France, as well as for the nonaligned United Kingdom. Italy's reading is up to date as of May, while the French and U.K. readings are up to date as of June. The recent Italian reading ticked up slightly, from 90.8 in April to 93.4 in May. The May reading for Italy has a 60.3 percentile standing, much better than the readings for the German headline, France, or the U.K. The French reading, at 84, is improved from 82.4 in June but still has only a 6.8 percentile standing, an extremely weak standing comparable to the headline standing for German climate. The U.K. reading is stuck at -23 for two months in a row, which produces a 26.9 percentile standing, another weak reading and a near 25-percentile low reading for the U.K.

These various readings span months ending in May, June, or July; the signals they emit are consistent that consumer confidence is quite weak in Europe—extremely weak in Germany and France, quite weak in the U.K., and only Italy produces a number where the ranking is above its 50th percentile, putting it above its historic mean of readings over data back to the year 2002. Italian consumer confidence readings have tended to be more resilient than those of other countries recently.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Jun 23 2026
S&P PMIs in June Firm
PMIs in June mark some progress The PMI report from S&P shows modest firming in conditions in June, even with the Middle East situation unresolved.

Monthly: The median reading for the 8 reporting countries or regions rose to 50.8 in June from 50.1 in May. Manufacturing improved to 52.7 from 52.4, while the services reading rose to 50.3 from 49.6, leaving a month of mild contraction behind.

Most show June improvement: Most countries or regions improved in June; the exceptions were Germany, the United Kingdom, and India, which were weaker. India was dragged down by a weaker service sector reading in June; the U.K. and Germany showed weakening conditions across the board for the composite index, the manufacturing sector, and services. On the other side of the coin, France, Japan, Australia, and the U.S. all showed improvement in each of three sectors: the composite, manufacturing, and services, in June compared to May.

Sequentially still mixed: The broader sequential readings show ongoing weakness, but these are derived from hard data and lag the monthly observations in the table that include preliminary flash estimates. All the composite readings weakened based on three-month averages except for India. However, seven of eight reporting areas showed improvement in manufacturing over three months compared to six months; the exception was Australia. Over six months, conditions are mixed, with four composite readings weaker compared to 12 months and with four stronger. However, over six months, all eight manufacturing sectors improved compared to 12 months. The 12-month readings are consistently stronger than their readings of 12 months ago. The only composite that's weaker is the U.S., while the services sectors in the monetary union, Germany, France, and the U.S. are weaker than they were 12 months ago.

Standings are weak: The queue percentile standings evaluate the current diffusion index in June compared to where it has been since January 2022, a period of about 4½ years. The queue standings show weakness up and down the line, with the exception of the manufacturing sector; that has the standing above its historic median in the monetary union, Germany, France, the U.K., the U.S., and Japan. Only Australia and India show manufacturing sectors whose current monthly standings are below their medians of the last 4½ years. In addition, Japan has a strong composite reading at its 81st percentile. Overall, the services sectors are weak and below their 50% standing every place, and below that mark by a large margin, except for Japan, where the services sector has a 47th percentile standing, only a few ticks below its median.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Denmark| Jun 22 2026
Danish Confidence Improves As Inflation Expectations Pull Back Sharply
Danish consumer confidence rose to -14 in June from -19.8 in May, a small pickup for a still-negative net reading. In June, the reading has a standing at its 7.9 percentile on data back to 1995. So, this confidence headline still has a lower 8% reading overall.

On the month, all seven component readings improved compared to May, although the environmental assessments were little changed across four components. As for the environment, the most changed reading is the improved favorability of the time to save, a metric that is not always a positive category.

As for the seven categories, the readings on the financial situation, general economy and the unemployment rate all improved month-to-month, while the inflation metrics both backed down sharply.

These changes show the financial situation and general economy gauges all at rankings in the lower 20th percentiles, with the outlook for the next 12 months having a standing in their lower 10th percentiles and lower for both the financial situation and the general economy.

Consumer prices, despite a strong monthly step-back, have a 90.2 percentile standing for prices over the past 12 months and a 94.3 percentile standing for the CPI over the next 12 months. Despite some let-up in concerns about unemployment, the unemployment gauge has an 85.1 percentile standing, still substantially elevated.

The environmental readings are less negative, starting with the ‘favorability of the time to purchase,’ a bit weaker month-to-month but improved on balance over two months. The June reading is slightly better than its 12-month average but still has a ranking only in its 21st percentile. The favorability of the time to purchase over the next 12 months is a tick weaker month-to-month and about a point worse than its 12-month average. Its June ranking is in its lower 10th percentile of its historic queue. The favorability of the time to save has a stronger ranking, but this is a more equivocal category. It is improved month-to-month and only slightly stronger over two months The June reading is stronger than its 12-month average, with a ranking in its 47.6 percentile—improved compared to previous categories but still worse than its historic median since 1995 (the median occurs at a ranking of 50%). The ‘general financial situation of households now’ ticked lower in June from May but is stronger on balance over two months. The June reading is above its 12-month average and has a 59.2 percentile standing—above its median.

On balance, Denmark shows improving confidence, progressing slowly but on the right path. There is a sharp downward adjustment in inflation, especially over the next 12 months, despite global conditions. Still, the ranking of the confidence metrics are uniformly weak.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Jun 18 2026
EMU Unemployment Remains Low
Unemployment in the European Monetary Union stayed at 6.3% in April, just a tick above its all-time low. In the more inclusive EU, the unemployment rate hovered at 6%, just two tenths of a percentage point above its all-time low. Unemployment conditions in the monetary union remain low without many signs of acceleration.

The unemployment rate in April fell in Italy, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, and the Netherlands. The unemployment rate increased month-to-month in Finland.

In March, the unemployment rate declined in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Finland, Italy, and the Netherlands. It rose month-to-month in Greece and Luxembourg.

Over three months, the unemployment rate in these 12-early reporting monetary union members fell in five countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, Ireland, and the Netherlands. In contrast, unemployment rose in five countries: Portugal, Greece, France, Finland, and Austria.

Over six months, unemployment rates fell in six countries: the Netherlands, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Belgium, and Austria. This was against increases in six countries: Greece, Finland, France, Luxembourg, Spain, and Ireland.

Year over year, the degree of inflation progress is much thinner, with the unemployment rates falling in only three countries Italy, Spain, and Portugal with increases in unemployment for all the other countries in the table.

Unemployment rates continue to rank low in the monetary union, with only three monetary union countries having their unemployment rates ranked above 50%, putting them above their respective medians on data back to the year 2000. Those three countries are Luxembourg, Finland, and Austria. For the remaining countries, the rankings of their unemployment rates over this period are not even as high as their 30th percentiles. Italy, at present, is experiencing its lowest unemployment rate of the period.

Unemployment conditions in the monetary union remain solid. The past two weeks were significant for monetary policy and global economics, with the ECB raising rates, Japan raising rates, and the United States keeping rates unchanged but moving away from an easing bias in policy that had been in effect for quite a number of months. Today the Bank of England, after experiencing some significant inflation progress, decided to keep its policy on hold for another session. An agreement between the U.S. and Iran securing an opening of the Strait of Hormuz was signed, paving the way for potentially improved oil flows, lower inflation, and less uncertainty in the period ahead.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
United Kingdom| Jun 17 2026
U.K. Inflation Dips and Shows Progress
It's an interesting time for the Bank of England to be meeting; it has its next policy meeting on June 18. Top money center central banks have been meeting, and the European Central Bank delivered a rate hike, with what is believed to be a likelihood of another hike before the end of the year. The Bank of Japan as just met and executed a 25-basis-point rate hike that brought the overnight interest rate up to 1% for the first time in 31 years. The Federal Reserve meets today and although the Fed is not expected to make an interest rate change, it is widely expected to remove the language that implies the next rate change is likely to be a reduction. Against that background, there is a pending deal to be signed on Friday between the United States and Iran to end the hostilities, to open the Strait of Hormuz, and to allow a normalization—or at least a transition toward normalization—of traffic flow through the Strait of Hormuz and the restoration of the delivery of the world's oil supplies.

Against this background, the Bank of England will be making its rate decision. Part of this background shows other central banks having taken steps to become less accommodative or more vigilant against inflation risks and what have been ongoing overshoots of inflation targets by monetary policy globally. The Bank of England is part of this phenomenon as its rate of inflation, measured by the CPIH, is 3% year-over-year, a full percentage point above where it's supposed to be. However, both the CPIH and the HICP treatments for measuring U.K. inflation show inflation edging slightly lower—from 3% for the CPIH over 12 months to 2.7% over three months annualized. For the HICP, it moves from 2.9% over 12 months to a 2.7% annual rate over three months. Both of these are small moves but in the right direction. In addition, the CPIH core measure, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, shows inflation declining from 2.9% over 12 months to 2.6% at an annual rate over six months, and to 1.7% at an annual rate over three months.

In short, inflation progress in the U.K. is very much in gear for the headline; inflation is quite moderately easing, however. For the core, the move lower is impressive and considerable. The question is whether the MPC at the Bank of England will find these movements sufficient in and of themselves to stay their hand and hold interest rate policy, or whether the Committee will join the ranks of central banks hiking interest rates to make sure that inflation makes that turn lower.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is hopeful, but not definitive, and there have been a number of ceasefires in the Middle East that have been called and then broken up relatively quickly. This time, markets are reacting to this particular announcement much more decisively and treating it as if this one is the ‘Real McCoy’ with oil prices having fallen down into the mid $70/barrel range and other indicators showing that markets are convinced that prices are moving lower too. Are the Bank of England's MPC members buying onto this as well? Or are they going to treat this as perhaps one last opportunity to get interest rates up and to make sure that the inflation rate goes down?

U.K. inflation on a monthly basis shows a slight tendency to accelerate in May, with inflation diffusion measuring inflation acceleration month-to-month at 58.3%, above the neutral reading of 50. However, diffusion had been at 50% in April and at 41.7% in March. Acceleration has been broadly blunted. In addition, the May increase in the CPIH was only 0.1%, the same as in April, with March having posted a much stronger increase of 0.4%.

Looking at trends sequentially over 12 months, six months and three months, diffusion is only 25% over 12 months; it is 50% over six months and 25% over three months. These metrics reinforce the view that inflation is not broadly accelerating but rather decelerating and moving back into line.

Taking the year-over-year inflation rate, it's a ranking of overall inflation rates back to January 2000. The headline CPIH is still high at a 74.4 percentile standing; that means it has been higher than 3% about 25% of the time and lower about 75% of the time. The average ranking across the various metrics in the table is 61%. That's above a ranking of 50% that delineates the median for the period. And despite the fast fall in the CPIH core rate, the year-over-year core is at 2.9% and has an 81.2 percentile ranking, meaning it has been higher since January 2000, less than 20% of the time. However, that 12-month rate of 2.9% is now down to 1.7% over three months. There are too many ways to look at inflation, at the environment, at what other central banks have done, and at trends to know with any certainty what the BOE will do.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Jun 16 2026
ZEW Shows Mixed Conditions and an Expectations Rebound
The ZEW diffusion survey (an up-minus-down survey) showed mixed improvements in the economic situation and improvements for macroeconomic expectations in June. The report shows the economic situation improving in the United States and China, with the euro area taking a small step back (to -43.4 in June from -41.4 in May), while Germany also saw a step back in the economic situation (to -81.0 from -77.8). The ranking metrics show the German reading as lower only 13.8% of the time—the weakest showing among the four. The EMU ranking is at a 36.7 percentile, with the U.S. ranking close to that at a 42.5 percentile. China has a 76.2 percentile ranking over a shorter timeline.

Macro expectations show solid improvements reported in Germany, the U.S., and China. Macroeconomic rankings all are muted, with the U.S. at a 39.9 percentile standing as the strongest, followed by Germany at a 35.2 percentile standing and China at a 22.2 percentile standing.

Inflation expectations are still high across the board, ranging from a low percentile standing for the EMU, Germany, and China—from a euro area low of 78.6 to a high standing for this group at 85.7 for China. In contrast, the U.S. ranking is still high, but only at its 61.8 percentile. And all the inflation expectations readings fell in June as optimism on opening the Strait of Hormuz has been growing.

Nonetheless, expectations for short-term rates have been rising. They rose solidly in the EMU and China, and strongly in the U.S., from 10.5 in May to 38.5 in June.

In contrast, long-term rate expectations rose across the board as well but by modest amounts. The rankings for short-term expectations are stronger for all three countries compared to the ranking on long-term rate expectations. I suppose we can understand that as expectations of anti-inflation medicine.

Stock markets are assessed as higher month-to-month in the EMU and in all three countries. China has a strong ranking for its stock market assessment at its 81st percentile. The U.S. standing is above its median at its 51.5 percentile; the euro area expectation is at its 34.2 percentile, with German stock market expectations still weak at its 23.6 percentile.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Japan| Jun 15 2026
Japan’s Surveys Mixed in April but Mostly Weak
The economy watchers survey, along with other surveys, was doing fine until about March in the wake of the Iran war and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. With that action, the economy watchers index dove sharply from a level of 48.9 in February to 42.2 in March and slipped further to 40.8 in April. The various sector gauges for the retail sector, eating & drinking places, the service sector, and employment are all lower. The only improvement in April came from the future index, where there was some minor optimism about the potential for conditions to improve ahead. And, of course, over the weekend, there is the announcement of a U.S.-Iran deal to end the hostilities between the two countries. That is expected to be signed on Friday and then will put the war into a pause phase for the next 60 days, with the hope that the two sides can come to agreement on some of the stickier elements, including Iran's access to nuclear materials, which has yet to be hammered out.

That omission makes the announcement of this arrangement as a conflict ending deal hugely speculative. Another sticking point is that Israel is not on board and is still engaged in fighting with Hezbollah.

The Teikoku survey, another survey using diffusion indexes that describes Japanese sectors, weakened sharply in March and weakened across the board again in April. Manufacturing, retailing, wholesaling, services, and construction sectors all are posting weaker numbers in April than in March.

The percentile rankings for the economy watchers survey and the Teikoku surveys are both very weak, with the economy watchers standings in the 10th percentile range or lower; the Teikoku rankings are generally higher, around the 30th percentile or perhaps as low as the 20th percentile, as seen in construction. These are still very weak readings. All the raw diffusion readings are below 50, indicating contraction.

The sector indexes from METI on manufacturing and services, which both weakened in March, rebounded in April; in both cases, the April readings were above the February readings. Standings of these indexes based on growth rates are around the 80th percentile; at the 79th percentile for industry and at the 82.5 percentile for the tertiary or services index. Based on the value of the index itself, the tertiary index has a standing at its 98.9 percentile, which we would expect over time for an index that simply grows, as is the case for the METI indexes that are not diffusion indexes. However, the industrial index for Japan has only a 19.9 percentile standing, indicating the stress that Japan's industrial sector has been through, although the current ranking based on the growth rate shows that there is some recovery in progress. The industry level index is 6.3% below its January 2020 level, while the tertiary index is 3.1% above its January 2020 level.

The leading economic index has continued to rise during all these times. It rose in February compared to January, and it rose again in March compared to February; now in April compared to March, it was up again to 115.9, from the March reading of 115.4. Based on year-over-year growth, the leading economic index has a 95.1 percentile standing, which is relatively strong. Based on the index level, we get another strong reading at the 93.2 percentile mark. The leading index is also up 12.9% from its January 2020 level.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief