GlobalThe median reading for the 18 early reporting manufacturing sectors in the table (17 countries plus the euro area) is lower in March at 48.7 from 49.5 in February. Also, in March the diffusion (breadth) of reporters showing month-to-month improvement fell to 33.3% from 66.7% in February and 61.1% in January. However, diffusion over broader periods (3-mo vs. 6-mo; 6-mo vs. 12-mo and 12-mo vs. 12-mo ago) shows diffusion has been steadily at and above the 60% mark (them as point-to-point diffusion changes). And on those timelines, the median reading for the 12-month average is at 49.8, the 6-month average is at 49.3, and the 3-month average is at 48.7. Despite improving diffusion, the median reading has been slipping, but the slippage has been extremely slow. For the United States, France, Germany and the euro area - as a block - these three, blocs of time show diffusion improving in 10 of the twelve segments, the two deteriorating segments are for comparison with a year ago in the U.S. and comparisons between the 6-month average and the 12-month average for France. All four reporters show improvement in three-months compared to six-months, based on average data. By comparison, the four BRIC countries show only two improvements among the 12 possibilities, and only India shows improvement in three-months compared to six-months.
According to breath, this is ongoing improvement. But median data are not confirming the trend. It’s just another example of how small the current changes are and how the data can show small changes over periods as long as a year, when in reality all we are experiencing are gyrations, and little change in an essentially static environment.
The queue standings (rankings) show only seven of 18 reporters at or above the 50% mark; this is the demarcation line for the median on these ranked data. So, over the last four years data, are arrayed with slightly less than half above and slightly more than half below their respective medians. However, the median reading of these rankings makes it clear that data tilt to the weak side at a 45-percentile standing. On data from January 2021 to date, all March 2025 readings are lower on balance (except India-and that exception is on a small margin, +0.3 points).
In that table, I look at various groups: BRICS, Asia, and a group of the more advanced countries (U.S., U.K., EMU, Canada & Japan); each of them shows very little movement.
However, we have a world with a great deal of change in train, especially changes thrust on Europe by changing U.S. policy to put more of Europe’s own security provision in Europe’s on hands. This is going to ramp up spending and should cause economies to heat up in the year ahead or more. Such a change could spur PMI values, economic growth, stimulate the inflation environment, and alter monetary policy itself. There is change in progress that we can see coming but has not been reflected in this month’s report.
