French Household Confidence Remains Weak

French household confidence ticked higher to 88.4 in June from 88.3 in May, retaining most of the drop from April to May.

June confidence has a 24.8 percentile ranking near the upper border of its bottom 25 percentile on a ranked basis. The standings are coded nearly uniformly in red, indicating bad economic results. While price diffusion below 50 is good news, weak prices like that also suggest ongoing weak economic activity. For most the survey indicates a standing below the 50th percentile that implies a reading below its median on this timeline back to 2001. Unemployment has a high 81 percentile standing and is coded read because a high standing for unemployment is bad news.

The favorability to save is strong. The standings had coded black. But often when the favorability and ability to save is high, it is because the spending environment is poor, and it is true here with the spending environment with a 26.5 percentile standing.

Living standards for the next 12 months have an extremely low 6.5 percentile standing.

Two columns to the right chronical changes in the survey value over two periods for Covid and to the invasion of Ukraine and then from the date of Ukraine’s invasion to the current observation. Among the increases in readings since Ukraine’s invasion is a sharp increase in expectation of unemployment and an increase in the favorability to save.

Not only is confidence net lower since the invasion but inflation assessments are lower as well.

The favorability to spend has increased since Covid struck but then after Ukraine was invaded the favorability to spend fell, unwinding most of its recovery since Covid struck.

On balance, the INSEE survey remains weak and French consumers are troubled. There had been some recovery in train, through mid-2024. But since then, the recovery has eroded as the chart at the top of this report shows.

However, perhaps the quick end to the Middle East war and the prospect of less risk to oil markets can help restore confidence. Ukraine’s war with Russia is still in progress. But with the Middle East war stalled- at least for a while, perhaps attention can be shifted to Ukraine with a meaningful positive impact.