U.S. Factory Orders Unexpectedly Increase in September

New orders to all manufacturing industries rose 0.2% (3.6% y/y) during September after increasing 1.3% in August. A 0.8% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

As in the advance report, new orders for durable goods rose 0.5% (7.2% y/y) in September after a 3.0% August jump, which followed a 2.8% July decline. A 0.4% rise (15.9% y/y) in transportation sector orders followed an 8.0% August surge, which was led by commercial aircraft orders. Motor vehicle & parts orders rose 0.2% (4.3% y/y) after falling 0.3% in August. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.2% (1.2% y/y) after a 0.1% decline. Machinery orders eased slightly (+5.9% y/y) in September after a 2.1% rise. Total orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.5% (3.3% y/y) following a 1.1% decline while electrical equipment & appliance orders strengthened 1.7% (6.8% y/y), the strongest of six consecutive increases.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, eased 0.1% both m/m and y/y. Food product shipments rose 0.1% (0.5% y/y) after easing 0.1%. Textile product shipments rose 0.3% (1.9% y/y) following a 0.2% gain. Apparel shipments held steady (-0.4% y/y) after rising 0.6% in August. Paper product shipments rose 0.3% both m/m and y/y. Chemical shipments held steady (3.1% y/y) after a 0.2% gain while shipments from petroleum refineries fell 1.1% (-6.8% y/y) following a 2.2% decline.

Shipments of all manufacturing industries were little changed in September (+2.3% y/y) after falling 0.3% in August. Shipments of durable goods edged 0.1% higher (4.8% y/y) after easing 0.1%. Machinery shipments increased 1.3% (4.5% y/y) after easing 0.1% while computer & electronic product shipments were off 0.1% (+4.9% y/y) following a 0.2% dip. Electronic equipment, appliances & components shipments rose 0.6% (4.3% y/y) after rising 0.1%.

Unfilled durable goods orders increased 0.7% (8.2% y/y) in September for the second month in a row. Excluding a 1.0% increase in transportation, unfilled orders increased a steady 0.2% (0.9% y/y). Unfilled machinery orders edged 0.1% higher (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. Unfilled orders for computers & electronic products eased 0.1% (-0.9% y/y) for the second straight month. Unfilled orders for electrical equipment & appliances rose 0.6% (2.1% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Unfilled orders for furniture rose 0.2% (1.3% y/y) after rising 0.4% in August.

Total factory sector inventories slipped 0.1% (+1.4% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Excluding transportation, inventories rose 0.1% (1.5% y/y) also for a second month. Durable goods inventories slipped 0.1% (+1.9% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Machinery inventories rose 0.4% (3.2% y/y) after easing 0.1%. Computer & electronic product inventories rose 0.2% (1.0% y/y) after gaining 0.1%. Electrical equipment & appliance inventories rose 0.2% (2.8% y/y), the same as in August.

Nondurable goods inventories eased 0.1% (+0.5% y/y) after holding steady in August. Food product inventories eased 0.2% (-1.6% y/y) for a second month. Textile product inventories rose 0.3% (3.2% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Apparel inventories rose 0.7% (-0.8% y/y) after rising 0.3%. Paper product inventories rose 0.3% (3.2% y/y) following a 0.4% gain. Chemical product inventories eased 0.1% (+1.1% y/y) after holding steady in August while petroleum inventories held steady (-0.5% y/y) after rising 0.3%.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.