Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics

Introducing

Sandy Batten

Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia.   Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan.   In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association.   Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.  

Publications by Sandy Batten

    • Counter to market expectations for small declines, both import and export prices rose meaningfully in August.
    • Import prices increased 0.7% m/m while export prices rose 0.6% m/m. Both had fallen in June and July, helped by falling petroleum prices.
    • Petroleum prices edged up 0.1% m/m in August.
    • Price increases were relatively widespread across end-use categories.
    • The PPI increased 0.4% m/m (5.4% y/y) in August, in line with expectations, reflecting a 4.2% m/m rebound in energy prices.
    • The core PPI rose 0.3% m/m (4.7% y/y).
    • Final demand goods prices jumped 1.1% m/m, largely due to higher energy prices, following a 0.4% m/m decline in July.
    • Final demand services prices edged up 0.1% m/m in August, the slowest monthly gain in three months.
    • U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000 in August with upward revisions to both June and July.
    • The market consensus looked for a 52,000 increase.
    • The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, the lowest rate since June 2025.
    • In the household survey, employment jumped 569,000, its largest population-adjusted increase since November 2023.
    • Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m, but the y/y rate continued to trend down, sliding to 3.1%, the lowest since May 2021.
    • The 1.5% q/q saar increase in real GDP reported in the advance report was not revised in the second estimate.
    • Inventory investment and net exports continued to be meaningful drags on overall growth.
    • The strong domestic demand growth reported in the advance report was revised even stronger.
    • Corporate profits surged 9.1% q/q not annualized in Q2, the fastest quarterly advance since Q2 2021.
    • The headline index increased to 47.4 in August, a five-year high, after having jumped to 41.4 in July. Expectations were for a meaningful decline to 25.0.
    • However, the ISM-adjusted index edged down to 57.5 in August from 58.1 in July but was still well above the critical 50 level.
    • Price indexes declined in August but remained elevated.
    • Delivery times continued to lengthen but at a slower pace than in July.
    • The diffusion index for future general activity climbed 39 points to 73.6 this month, its highest reading since August 1983.
    • Housing starts plunged 12.4% m/m in July after a 19.7% monthly surge in June.
    • Single family starts fell 9.9% m/m to their lowest level since November 2022 while multi-family starts plummeted 16.8% m/m.
    • Less volatile permits increased 5.0% m/m in July, the first monthly increase in three months, with a 2.5% monthly gain in single-family permits and a 9.4% monthly jump in multi-family permits.
    • The headline CPI increased 0.1% m/m in July with the core index rising 0.2% m/m, both in line with expectations.
    • Y/Y rates for each index edged down 0.1%-point.
    • Seasonally adjusted energy prices fell for the second consecutive month.
    • Shelter prices rose only 0.1% m/m, but this was mostly due to a 3.3% m/m decline in hotel prices.
    • Total sales fell 1.7% m/m to 4.06 million units at an annual rate in July after a 1.4% monthly decline in June but were up 0.7% from a year ago.
    • Monthly sales increased in the Northeast, held steady in the West, and declined in the Midwest and South.
    • Year-over-year sales rose in the Midwest and West and were unchanged in the Northeast and South.
    • The median sales price fell 2.0% m/m NSA in July but rose 2.0% from a year ago.
    • U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 23,000 in July with meaningful downward revisions to both May and June.
    • The market consensus looked for an 85,000 increase.
    • The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, its lowest since June 2025, from 4.2%, due mostly to another significant decline in the labor force.
    • Average hourly earnings edged up 0.1% m/m (3.2% y/y), meaningfully lower than expectations.
    • Private sector jobs rose only 44,000 in July versus 95,000 in June.
    • Goods-producing jobs fell 3,000, the first monthly decline in seven months.
    • Service-producing jobs rose 47,000, the smallest monthly increase in four months.
    • Wage growth for job changers picked up for the second consecutive month.
    • The quarterly gain was led by personal consumption and business spending on equipment and intellectual property.
    • Inventory investment and net exports were meaningful drags on overall growth.
    • Domestic demand growth accelerated to well above trend.
    • Reflecting the jump in energy prices after the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, GDP inflation accelerated markedly.
    • The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence fell to 90.8 in July from 92.2 in June, continuing its downtrend since early last year.
    • The Present Situation index fell to 114.9, its lowest reading since February 2021. The Expectations index was unchanged at 74.7.
    • Inflation expectations one year ahead fell to 4.5% in July from 4.9%.
    • The labor market differential fell to 3.1% in July, its lowest level since February 2021, from 3.8%, pointing to further softening of labor market conditions.