Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics

Introducing

Sandy Batten

Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia.   Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan.   In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association.   Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.  

Publications by Sandy Batten

    • Output per hour growth slowed to 0.8% q/q saar in Q1 from 1.6%.
    • However, longer-term productivity growth remained solidly well above trend.
    • Compensation growth slowed to 3.1% q/q resulting in a slowdown in unit labor cost growth to 2.3% from 4.6% in Q4.
    • Private-sector payrolls rose 109,000 led by a pickup in service-producing employment.
    • Services employment increased by 94,000 while the rise in goods employment slowed to 15,000.
    • April job gains continued to be dominated by job increases at small firms.
    • Wage growth was little changed but remained elevated for job stayers.
    • The deficit in goods and services widened to $60.3 billion in March from $57.8 billion in February,
    • Exports rose 2.0% m/m, led by a 33% monthly jump in petroleum exports.
    • Imports increased 2.3% m/m, led by an 11.2% m/m jump in auto imports.
    • The goods deficit widened to $88.7 billion while the services surplus widened to $28.4 billion.
    • The PCE price index jumped 0.7%, reflecting an 11.6% m/m surge in energy prices.
    • The core index was up 0.3%, in line with expectations but still well above the Fed’s target.
    • Personal income increased 0.6% m/m, led by a 0.4% m/m rise in compensation.
    • Personal consumption jumped 0.9% m/m with a slight upward revision to February.
    • However, much of the March gain in nominal consumption also reflected the jump in energy prices.
    • Real consumption rose by a more modest 0.2% m/m.
    • Data for both February and March were included in today’s report to catch up from delays due to the federal government shutdown last October.
    • Starts fell 3.0% m/m in February but rebounded 10.8% m/m in March.
    • The 7.2% q/q increase in Q1 was the largest quarterly gain since the economy reopened after the pandemic shutdown in 2020.
    • In contrast, permits jumped 11.0% m/m in February but fell 10.8% m/m in March and were up only 1.0% q/q in Q1.
    • The monthly reading fell to -0.20 in March from an upwardly revised +0.03 in February.
    • The three-month average slipped from +0.03 to -0.03.
    • Despite the slip in March, the index points to near-trend economic growth and is well above recession territory.
    • Total sales jumped 1.7% m/m in March with small upward revisions to January and February.
    • Gasoline sales surged 15.5% m/m in March, but even excluding that increase, the remainder of retail sales rose 0.6% m/m.
    • Excluding autos, sales soared 1.9% m/m in March with small upward revisions to January and February.
    • Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.7% m/m in March and 1.2% q/q for all of Q1.
    • New claims fell by 11,000 to 207,000.
    • Continuing claims jumped 31,000 to 1.818 million.
    • The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2%.
    • Despite a 9.4% m/m jump in imported petroleum prices, import prices rose a less-than-expected 0.8% in March with a small downward revision to February.
    • Export prices increased more than did import prices, rising 1.6% m/m in March, but this was also less than expected.
    • Q4 GDP growth revised to 0.5% q/q saar from 0.7% in the second estimate and 1.4% in the advance report.
    • The shutdown of the federal government still played a critical role in the slowdown, subtracting 1.0%-point from Q4 growth.
    • Domestic demand slowed further with final sales to private domestic purchasers revised down to 1.8% from 1.9% in the first revision and 2.4% in the advance report.
    • Total sales increased 0.6% m/m after a 0.1% m/m decline in January
    • Excluding autos, sales increase 0.5% m/m in February after having been unchanged in January.
    • Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.5% m/m in February.
    • Openings fell 4.9% m/m to 6.882 million from an upwardly revised 7.240 million in January.
    • Hiring plummeted 9.3% m/m to 4.849 million, the lowest reading since April 2020.
    • Separations fell 3.4%% m/m to 4.971 million with a decline in Quits and an increase in Layoffs.