Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics

Introducing

Sandy Batten

Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia.   Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan.   In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association.   Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.  

Publications by Sandy Batten

    • The deficit in goods and services widened to $77.6 billion in May from $54.6 billion in April.
    • Exports slumped 3.2% m/m, led by an outsized fall in exports of nonmonetary gold and other precious metals.
    • Imports increased by 3.3% m/m with increases in each major end-use category.
    • The goods deficit widened to $106.5 billion, while the services surplus widened to $28.9 billion.
    • U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 57,000 in June with meaningful downward revisions to both April and May.
    • The market consensus looked for a 115,000 increase.
    • The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% from 4.3%, due mostly to a large decrease in the labor force.
    • Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m (3.5% y/y), in line with expectations.
    • Openings edged up 9,000 but to the highest level since May 2024.
    • However, hiring fell 45,000 for the third monthly decline in the past four months.
    • Separations rose 63,000 with increases in both quits and layoffs.
    • Q1 GDP growth was unexpectedly revised up to 2.1% q/q saar in the third estimate, up from 1.6% in the second estimate and inching past the 2.0% advance estimate.
    • A meaningful downward revision to imports was the primary factor behind the upward revision, leading to a much smaller subtraction from net exports.
    • Personal consumption expenditures growth was revised down to 0.5% q/q saar, the slowest pace since Q1 2022, due mostly to a downward revision to household spending on financial services and insurance.
    • With the downward revision to import demand and PCE, domestic demand growth was revised down meaningfully to 1.7% q/q from 2.4%.
    • Total sales increased 0.9% m/m in May, nearly twice expectations.
    • Auto sales rebounded, rising 1.2% m/m in May, more than reversing a 0.9% monthly decline in April.
    • Gasoline sales rose 3.4% m/m in May.
    • Excluding auto and gasoline sales, remaining sales increased by a solid 0.5% m/m in May, the same monthly increase as in April.
    • Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.7% m/m in May and are 8.6% annualized above the Q1 average.
    • Housing starts plunged 15.4% m/m in May to the lowest level since May 2020 with a significant downward revision to the previously reported April decline.
    • Single family starts fell 1.9% m/m while multi-family starts plummeted 40.2% m/m to their lowest level since November 2024.
    • Less volatile permits slid 0.7% m/m in May with a slight rise (+0.6% m/m) in single-family permits and a 2.8% monthly drop in multi-family permits.
    • The deficit in goods and services narrowed to $55.9 billion in April from a downwardly revised $56.6 billion in March.
    • Exports rose 2.6% m/m, led by a 33% monthly jump in petroleum exports.
    • Imports increased by 2.0% m/m, led by a 5.8% m/m rise in capital goods imports.
    • The goods deficit narrowed to $83.7 billion, and the services surplus narrowed to $27.8 billion.
    • Q1 output per hour growth was revised down to 0.3% q/q saar in the second estimate from 0.8% in the first, reflecting a downward revision to output.
    • However, longer-term productivity growth remained solidly well above trend.
    • Compensation growth was revised down meaningfully, resulting in a downward revision to unit labor cost growth to 1.8% from 2.3% previously.
    • Initial claims rose more than expected to 225k in the week ending May 30.
    • This is the largest weekly claims figure since February 7.
    • However, continuing claims continued to trend down, falling to 1.777 million in the week ending May 23 from 1.785 million in the previous week.
    • Openings increased to their highest level since May 2024.
    • However, hiring slumped, reversing most of the March increase.
    • Separations fell with declines in quits, layoffs and other separations.
    • Q1 GDP growth was unexpectedly revised down to 1.6% saar from 2.0% in the advance estimate.
    • There was little revision to the major expenditure components with almost all of the total downward revision due to a larger decline in inventories than previously estimated.
    • Domestic demand growth was revised down a tick but was still a solid, above-trend 2.4%.
    • This report provided the first look at Q1 corporate profits. Profit growth slowed to 0.9% q/q not annualized but this was on top of a 10.7% jump in the previous two quarters.
    • Total industrial output increased a much larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m in April with a small upward revision to March.
    • Manufacturing output increased 0.6% m/m, led by a 5.3% m/m rebound in vehicle production.
    • Mining output edged down 0.1% m/m, while utilities production rose 1.9% m/m.
    • The headline rate of capacity utilization rose to 76.1% in April, its highest reading since last August but still well below its long-term average.