Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics

Introducing

Sandy Batten

Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia.   Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan.   In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association.   Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.  

Publications by Sandy Batten

    • Retail gasoline prices unchanged in latest week.
    • The price of WTI fell to $61.79, its lowest since the week of May 30.
    • The price of natural gas rose 26 cents to $3.16, the highest since July 25.
    • Job openings edged up 0.3% m/m in August after declining in both June and July.
    • Openings were less than the number of unemployed for the second consecutive month.
    • Hiring declined 2.2% m/m in August, the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
    • Total separations fell 2.1% m/m, reflecting declines in both quits and layoffs.
    • Personal income increased 0.4% m/m but compensation slowed.
    • Real PCE increased 0.3% m/m in August on top of a 0.4% m/m increase in July.
    • July/August real PCE up 2.8% annualized from Q2 average, providing a solid base for Q3 GDP growth.
    • Headline PCE inflation edged up further to the fastest y/y pace since February.
    • Durable goods orders unexpectedly rose 2.9% m/m after declines in both June and July.
    • Aircraft orders rose 27% m/m, their first increase in three months.
    • Orders excluding transportation rose 0.4% m/m in August on top of a solid 1.0% monthly gain in July.
    • Core capital goods orders increased 0.6% following a 0.8% rise in July; shipments fell 0.3% m/m, their first decline in four months.
    • Real GDP advanced at a 3.8% saar in Q3 in the third estimate, up from 3.3% in the second estimate and 3.0% in the advance report.
    • Stronger consumer spending and business fixed investment were the major factors behind the upward revision.
    • Meaningful upward revisions to measures of aggregate demand.
    • Small upward revision to GDP and PCE inflation.
    • Annual benchmark revision benign; annual real GDP growth from 2019 to 2024 was unrevised at 2.4%.
    • Goods deficit narrows to smallest since Q4 2023 as goods imports declined 18.4% q/q, reversing the surge in Q1.
    • Services surplus narrowed slightly from record high in Q1.
    • Balance on primary income remained in deficit, a rare occurrence. Secondary income deficit narrowed marginally.
    • Net financial-account transactions were -$406.9 billion in the second quarter, reflecting net U.S. borrowing from foreign residents.
    • Import prices rose 0.3% m/m in August against expectations of a small decline.
    • The August increase was due to higher prices for nonfuel imports as prices for fuel imports fell for the first time in three months.
    • Export prices also rose 0.3% m/m against expectations of a small decline, reflecting higher prices for nonagricultural exports.
    • Total business inventories increased 0.2% m/m in July with increases across sectors.
    • Total business sales climbed 1.0% m/m in July, their largest monthly gain since February.
    • With sales advancing more than inventories, the inventory/sales ratio fell to 1.37, its lowest reading since July 2022.
    • The trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July from $59.1 billion in June.
    • This was the largest deficit since March.
    • Exports rebounded, increasing by 0.3% m/m after a 0.3% m/m decline in June.
    • Imports surged, rising 5.9% following a 3.6% decline in June.
    • The July import surge was led by imports of industrial supplies.
    • Productivity jumped 3.3% saar in Q2, up markedly from 2.4% in the advance report.
    • This is the largest quarterly rise in productivity since Q4 2023.
    • Growth in nonfarm output was revised up to 4.4% from 3.7% previously while growth of hours worked was revised down to 1.1% from 1.3%.
    • Compensation growth was revised up but the large upward revision to productivity still enabled growth of unit labor costs to be revised down.
    • Index remained (though barely) in positive territory for the second consecutive month, indicating that manufacturing activity was inching up.
    • Prior to last month, the index had been negative for 22 consecutive months.
    • Positive readings across most key components.
    • Durable goods orders fell 2.8% m/m in July on top of a 9.4% monthly drop in June.
    • Once again, weak nondefense aircraft orders were the key factor; nondefense aircraft orders plunged 33% m/m in July on top of a 53% m/m decline in June.
    • In contrast, orders excluding transportation rose a solid 1.1% m/m in July, their largest monthly gain since September 2024.
    • Core capital goods orders rebounded, and shipments posted a solid gain.