U.S. JOLTS—Openings Edged Up, Hiring and Layoffs Fell in August
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Job openings edged up 0.3% m/m in August after declining in both June and July.
- Openings were less than the number of unemployed for the second consecutive month.
- Hiring declined 2.2% m/m in August, the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
- Total separations fell 2.1% m/m, reflecting declines in both quits and layoffs.
Job openings edged up 19,000 (+0.3% m/m, -5.5% y/y) to 7.227 million in August from an upwardly revised 7.208 million in July (previously 7.181 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. This was the first monthly increase in three months. The job openings rate was unchanged at 4.3%, tying its lowest value since June 2020 and well below its record of 7.4% reached in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings. In August, the number of unemployed rose even more did the number of openings. So, the number of openings was less than the number unemployed for the second consecutive month. Apart from July and August, the last time openings exceeded unemployment was April 2021.
Private sector openings rose 56,000 (+0.9% m/m, -2.7% y/y) to 6.457 million in August, the first monthly increase in three months, versus 6.401 million in July. The private openings rate was unchanged at 4.5%. Openings in construction fell 115K in August, the first decline in three months. Manufacturing openings declined 29K, and professional and business services opening slid 39K, the third decline in the past four months. By contrast, leisure/hospitality openings increased 97K, their first increase in three months. Openings in private education and healthcare rebounded, rising 94K in August after having declined 342K in June and July. Government openings fell 37K in August, their sixth decline in the past seven months. The August decline reflected a 62K decline in federal government openings.
Total hiring fell 114,000 (-2.2% m/m, -2.0% y/y) to 5.126 million in August from 5.240 million in July. This was the fourth consecutive monthly decline and its lowest reading in over a year. The total hiring rate edged down to 3.2%, tying its lowest reading since April 2020 and well below rates that existed prior to the pandemic. Private sector hiring fell 113K (-2.3% m/m) in August to 4.805 million. This was also its fourth consecutive monthly decline to its lowest level in more than a year. The weakness was concentrated in a 91K decline in trade and transport hiring. Of the major sectors, only construction (+22K) and manufacturing (+4K) posted hiring gains in August. There were no hires in either the federal or state and local governments in August.
Total separations fell 110,000 (-2.1% m/m, -1.1% y/y) to 5.111 million in August from 5.221 million in July. The total separation rate slipped to 3.2%, tying its lowest reading since 2013. Private separations fell 126K (-2.6% m/m) to 4.781 million from 4.907 million in July, while government sector separations increased 16K, the first monthly rise in three months. Total quits declined 75K, the fourth monthly decline in five months. Private sector quits fell 76K, also the fourth monthly decline in the past five months. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. The persistent decline in quits recently indicates that the labor market is becoming less dynamic and that general conditions are softening. In contrast, layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Layoffs and discharges fell 62K to 1.725 million in August, the third decline in the past four months. Falling quits indicate that there is more difficulty finding a new job, while falling layoffs indicate that firms are less willing to layoff existing workers.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s USECON database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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