- Results exceed expectations by wide margins.
- Yr/Yr percent changes were the sharpest since December 2022.
Introducing
Michael J. Moran
in:Our Authors
Before joining Haver Analytics in 2025, Michael J. Moran was the chief economist of Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc. He was responsible for preparing the firm’s economic forecast and interest rate outlook. He traveled frequently to visit the clients of Daiwa Capital Markets and wrote weekly economic commentary. Mr. Moran also was involved in the flux of financial markets, as he spent a portion of each day on Daiwa’s trading floor interpreting economic statistics and Federal Reserve activity for traders and salespeople. Mr. Moran is quoted frequently in the financial press, and he appears regularly on cable news shows. He also has published articles in several journals and periodicals. Before joining Daiwa Capital Markets America, Mr. Moran worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C. where he analyzed a broad range of issues dealing with the financial sector of the economy and regularly briefed the Board of Governors. He was on the faculty of Pennsylvania State University from 1979 to 1980 and taught on a part-time basis at George Washington University from 1980 to 1987.
Mr. Moran received his Ph.D. in economics from Pennsylvania State University in 1980 and a B.S. in business administration from the University of Bridgeport in 1975. He was a CFA charter holder from 2002 until 2016.
Publications by Michael J. Moran
USA| Oct 15 2026September PPI: High-Side Readings on Food and Energy; Uncomfortable increase in Core
USA| Oct 06 2026US International Trade: Deficit Surges in July and August
- The past few months have shown strong imports and soft exports
- Net exports are likely to be a substantial drag on GDP growth in Q3
USA| Oct 02 2026September Employment Report
- Disappointing change in nonfarm payrolls
- Marginal increase in unemployment
- Modest increase in average hourly earnings
USA| Sep 30 2026Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in August
- Higher energy prices and still-firm increases in core prices.
- Households spend briskly after a pause in July; Q3 activity appears strong.
USA| Sep 24 2026US Current Account in Q2: Additional Slippage
- A widening in the trade deficit deepened the current account shortfall.
- Both primary and secondary income improved slightly (i.e. became less negative).
- A drop in multi-family activity in August offset a gain in the single-family sector.
- Q3 shaping up to be another soft quarter for housing.
USA| Sep 03 2026Revised Productivity in Q2: No Adjustment to Moderate Growth
- Productivity gains, while still respectable, have lost a bit of vigor in recent quarters.
- The growth of unit labor costs eased slightly from an already moderate pace.
- New orders accounted for most of the easing in the headline index.
- The production index showed a small decline; the employment index posted a moderate drop.
- The prices index was unchanged at an elevated level, but still below recent peaks.
USA| Aug 18 2026Import and Export Prices in July: Petroleum-Led Restraint
- The retreat in the price of crude oil pushed both import and export prices lower.
- Prices of capital goods are under upward pressure on both sides of the trade ledger.
- Both the food and energy components have declined in the past two months.
- Other items have decelerated recently, but the rate of inflation remained uncomfortably high.
USA| Aug 06 2026Productivity: Moderate Growth in Q2
- Productivity gains, while still respectable, have lost a bit of vigor in recent quarters.
- Unit labor costs rose moderately, suggesting little inflation pressure.
USA| Aug 04 2026US International Trade in June: Searching for Normal
- Both exports and imports cool after strong performances in early 2026.
- The US trade balance is moving sideways within a wide range.
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