- Expectations improved slightly in April, but are still subdued relative to norms.
- Moderately favorable view of current conditions.
Introducing
Michael J. Moran
in:Our Authors
Before joining Haver Analytics in 2025, Michael J. Moran was the chief economist of Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc. He was responsible for preparing the firm’s economic forecast and interest rate outlook. He traveled frequently to visit the clients of Daiwa Capital Markets and wrote weekly economic commentary. Mr. Moran also was involved in the flux of financial markets, as he spent a portion of each day on Daiwa’s trading floor interpreting economic statistics and Federal Reserve activity for traders and salespeople. Mr. Moran is quoted frequently in the financial press, and he appears regularly on cable news shows. He also has published articles in several journals and periodicals. Before joining Daiwa Capital Markets America, Mr. Moran worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C. where he analyzed a broad range of issues dealing with the financial sector of the economy and regularly briefed the Board of Governors. He was on the faculty of Pennsylvania State University from 1979 to 1980 and taught on a part-time basis at George Washington University from 1980 to 1987.
Mr. Moran received his Ph.D. in economics from Pennsylvania State University in 1980 and a B.S. in business administration from the University of Bridgeport in 1975. He was a CFA charter holder from 2002 until 2016.
Publications by Michael J. Moran
USA| Apr 28 2026Consumer Confidence: Modest Change in April
USA| Apr 16 2026Industrial Production: Soft in March
- Downward noise in utility output; slow activity in manufacturing and mining.
- Flat underlying trend in recent months.
USA| Apr 14 2026March PPI: Tame Excluding Energy
- Energy prices surged in March, but most other items showed modest changes.
- Tame readings were a relief from hints of upward pressure in prior months.
USA| Apr 10 2026March CPI: Pressure in the Energy Sector (as Expected); Tame Elsewhere (Surprisingly)
- Gasoline prices drove the energy component higher; electricity prices also contributed.
- Food prices provided a surprise by posting a fractional decline.
- Core prices rose less than expected; both goods and services components were contained.
- The energy component contributed to a high-side reading on the price index for personal consumption expenditures; the core component was firm as well.
- Consumer spending showed signs of slowing.
- The jump of 178,000 in payroll employment in March easily exceeded the expected gain of 51,000.
- Following a net gain in January and February, the employment setting seems to have brightened slightly.
- A dip in the unemployment rate continued the recent pattern of marginal changes.
USA| Mar 25 2026Current Account: Notable Improvement in Q4
- Firm exports boosted the trade component.
- Primary income flows rebounded from soft showings in prior quarters.
USA| Mar 24 2026Productivity Growth: Downward Revision in Q4
- Productivity growth was a percentage point slower than previously believed, but still respectable.
- A notable upward revision in unit labor cost is more concerning.
USA| Mar 18 2026February PPI: Troubling Inflation Figures
- The volatile food and energy components jumped...
- ...But other items also showed upward pressure.
USA| Mar 13 2026Revised Q4 GDP: Downward Adjustment Leaves Modest Growth
- Consumer spending and business investment in structures accounted for most of the adjustment.
- Although growth was slow, the results were not alarming.
USA| Mar 13 2026Personal Income and Consumption
- The inflation rate for personal consumption expenditures remains uncomfortably high.
- Solid income growth, but cautious spending by households.
USA| Mar 11 2026February CPI: Moderate Increase Despite Jumps in Volatile Areas
- Food and energy post above-average price increases.
- Ex food and energy, apparel and airfares misbehave...
- ...but most other areas showed modest price changes.
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