- Productivity gains, while still respectable, have lost a bit of vigor in recent quarters.
- Unit labor costs rose moderately, suggesting little inflation pressure.
Introducing
Michael J. Moran
in:Our Authors
Before joining Haver Analytics in 2025, Michael J. Moran was the chief economist of Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc. He was responsible for preparing the firm’s economic forecast and interest rate outlook. He traveled frequently to visit the clients of Daiwa Capital Markets and wrote weekly economic commentary. Mr. Moran also was involved in the flux of financial markets, as he spent a portion of each day on Daiwa’s trading floor interpreting economic statistics and Federal Reserve activity for traders and salespeople. Mr. Moran is quoted frequently in the financial press, and he appears regularly on cable news shows. He also has published articles in several journals and periodicals. Before joining Daiwa Capital Markets America, Mr. Moran worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C. where he analyzed a broad range of issues dealing with the financial sector of the economy and regularly briefed the Board of Governors. He was on the faculty of Pennsylvania State University from 1979 to 1980 and taught on a part-time basis at George Washington University from 1980 to 1987.
Mr. Moran received his Ph.D. in economics from Pennsylvania State University in 1980 and a B.S. in business administration from the University of Bridgeport in 1975. He was a CFA charter holder from 2002 until 2016.
Publications by Michael J. Moran
USA| Aug 06 2026Productivity: Moderate Growth in Q2
USA| Aug 04 2026US International Trade in June: Searching for Normal
- Both exports and imports cool after strong performances in early 2026.
- The US trade balance is moving sideways within a wide range.
USA| Jul 30 2026Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in June
- (Temporary?) relief on price pressures
- Respectable income gain and active spending by consumers
- Respectable advance in the latest month…
- …and net upward revisions in the prior three months
- …but still trailing results in the prior three months
- Multi-Family starts rebounded from a soft reading in May.
- Single-family activity dipped from upwardly revised levels; softish trend overall.
USA| Jul 14 2026June CPI: Cooling Energy Prices and a Restrained Core Component
- The energy component retraced a portion of its surge in the prior three months.
- Prices excluding food and energy provided a surprise by posting a rare decline.
USA| Jul 01 2026Construction in May: Another Soft Reading
- Building activity in the US was firm in 2023 and 2024, but it has lost ground since then.
- Government-related construction and private residential building have been little changed in the past year or so.
- Private nonresidential construction has been notably weak, despite robust activity in the building of data centers.
USA| Jun 25 2026Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in May
- Energy prices rose sharply for the third consecutive month; core prices were unsettling as well.
- A jump in nominal income translated to a modest advance in real terms, allowing consumers to remain reasonably active.
USA| Jun 24 2026Q1 Current Account: Modest Slippage in Early 2026
- Improvement in the trade balance offset by weaker net investment income.
- Annual revision showed wider deficit in 2025.
USA| Jun 16 2026Import and Export Prices: Firm in May
- Petroleum products led import prices higher, but capital goods also had an influence.
- Petroleum was also a factor on the export side; some stirring in food and capital goods.
USA| Jun 10 2026May CPI: Another Jump in Energy Prices; Core Contained
- Gasoline prices drove the energy component higher again, but June might bring some relief.
- Little apparent pass through from energy to core.
USA| Jun 05 2026May Employment Report: Revival in the Labor Market
- Nonfarm payrolls post their third consecutive firm advance.
- Unemployment showed marginal improvement.
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