U.S. Import Prices Rebounded in July

Import prices unexpectedly increased 0.4% m/m (-0.2% y/y) in July after declines of 0.1% m/m in June and 0.4% m/m in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. An unchanged reading had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Export prices edged up 0.1% m/m (2.2% y/y) in July following a 0.5% monthly gain in June. The Action Economic Forecast Survey had also looked for an unchanged reading.

For imports, prices for imported fuel advanced 2.7% m/m in July following an increase of 0.8% m/m in June and a decrease of 5.0% m/m in May. The July increase was the largest monthly advance since the index rose 3.0% m/m in January 2025. Higher prices for imported petroleum and natural gas drove the July increase, advancing 2.4% m/m and 4.7% m/m, respectively. Imported fuel prices fell 12.1% y/y in July 2025 with imported petroleum prices down 13.7% y/y while imported natural gas prices soared 62.2% y/y.

Apart from imported fuel, prices for nonfuel imports advanced 0.3% m/m percent in July, following a decrease of 0.3% m/m in June. Higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials (1.0% m/m), consumer goods (0.4% m/m), and capital goods (0.1% m/m) more than offset lower prices for automotive vehicles (-0.2% m/m) and foods, feeds, and beverages (-0.1% m/m). Nonfuel import prices increased 0.9% y/y in July and have not declined on an over-the-year basis since a 0.6% decrease in February 2024. Higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials; capital goods; and foods, feeds, and beverages contributed to the year-over-year advance.

Higher prices for nonagricultural exports drove the July increase in overall export prices. The price index for agricultural exports was unchanged in July following a 0.8% m/m increase in June. Higher prices for meat (1.1% m/m) and vegetables (3.4% m/m) lower prices for corn (-1.9% m/m) and animal feeds (-1.6% m/m). The price index for agricultural exports increased 3.4% y/y in July, the largest 12-month rise since a 5.3% y/y advance in January 2023. Nonagricultural export prices ticked up 0.1% m/m in July, after rising 0.5% m/m in June and falling 0.8% m/m in May. Higher prices for automotive vehicles (0.7% m/m), capital goods (0.2% m/m), and consumer goods (0.2% m/m) more than offset lower prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials (-0.1% m/m). Prices for nonagricultural exports increased 2.0% y/y in July. Higher prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials, capital goods, and automotive vehicles drove the year-over-year advance.

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.