- October total retail sales +0.03% (+3.5% y/y), w/ mixed results across categories.
- Ex-auto sales +0.4% (+4.0% y/y); auto sales -1.6% (+1.2% y/y).
- Sales rebound m/m in department stores (+4.9%) and furniture stores (+2.3%).
- Sales drop m/m in bldg. materials & garden equipt. stores (-0.9%) and gasoline stations (-0.8%).
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
- December General Business Conditions Index down 22.6 pts. to -3.9.
- Unfilled orders (-14.9) and shipments (-5.7) negative; employment (7.3, highest since July) and inventories (4.0) positive; new orders flat (0.0).
- Prices paid at an 11-month-low 37.6 and prices received at a 10-month-low 19.8, still elevated.
- Firms optimistic: Future Business Conditions Index at an 11-month-high 35.7 and future prices paid at an 11-month-low 55.4.
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Idx up 0.8 pts. to 99.0 in Nov., driven by stronger real sales expectations.
- Uncertainty Idx up 3 pts. to 91, reflecting uncertainty about CapEx plans.
- Expectations for economy down 5 pts. to a 7-month-low 15%.
- Expected real sales up 9 pts. to 15%, highest since Jan. ’25.
- Plans to expand business unchanged at 13%.
- Firms raising avg. selling prices up 13 pts. to 34%, highest since March ’23 and largest m/m increase on record.
- Quality of labor (21%), inflation (15%), and taxes (14%) are the top three business concerns.
- Import prices unchanged (+0.3% y/y) in Sept. after two straight m/m rises, largely due to a 1.5% drop in fuel import prices.
- Excluding fuels, import prices up 0.2% (0.8% y/y), the third straight m/m increase.
- Export prices unchanged (+3.8% y/y), reflecting a 0.3% rebound in agricultural exp. prices and no change in nonag exp. prices.
- Purchase applications +2.5% w/w; refinancing loan applications -4.4% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans drops to a four-week-low 6.49%
- Average loan size rises to the highest level since the October 31 week.
USA| Nov 25 2025U.S. Producer Prices Rise in September Led by Energy
- Sept. PPI increases 0.3% m/m (+2.7% y/y), driven by price rises of 3.5% in energy and 1.1% in foods.
- PPI ex foods & energy edges up 0.1%; prices for both services and construction hold steady.
- Core goods prices increase 0.2% (+2.9% y/y) after a 0.3% August gain.
- Intermediate demand processed goods prices up for the fifth time in six months.
USA| Nov 24 2025Texas General Business Activity Remains Negative in November, But Expectations Stay Positive
- General Business Activity down in Nov. to -10.4, lowest level since June.
- Company Outlook (-6.3) negative for the third straight mth. and at a five-month low; Production (20.5) at a four-month high.
- New Orders Growth (-1.3) still negative, but New Orders (4.8) turns positive after two negative readings.
- Employment (1.2) positive for the sixth time in seven mths.
- Prices Received up 3.1 pts. to 10.8; Prices Paid up 1.9 pts. to 35.3.
- Future General Business Activity up to 11.0, a three-month high.
- Purchase applications -0.6% w/w; refinancing loan applications -2.8% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans ticks up to 6.48% despite ongoing downward trend.
- Average loan size rebounds to the highest level since the September 19 week.
- FHFA HPI +0.4% m/m (+2.3% y/y) in August vs. -0.04% m/m (+2.4% y/y) in July.
- House prices up m/m in seven of nine census divisions but down in Pacific (-0.8%) and West South Central (-0.2%).
- House prices up y/y in eight of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in Middle Atlantic (+6.3%) and a drop in Pacific (-0.6%).
USA| Oct 07 2025U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Slows in August After July’s Surge
- Consumer credit growth hits a six-month low.
- Revolving credit sees the first m/m decline since May.
- Nonrevolving credit posts the smallest m/m increase since March.
USA| Sep 25 2025U.S. Existing Home Sales Slip in August After July’s Rebound
- August sales -0.2% (+1.8% y/y) to 4.0 mil., the second m/m decline in three months.
- Sales patterns show mixed results: down in the Northeast and South, but up in the Midwest and West.
- Median sales price -0.7% (+2.0% y/y) to a 4-month-low $422,600.
- Unsold inventory -1.3% (+11.7% y/y) to 1.53 mil. units; 4.6 months' supply.
USA| Sep 25 2025U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows in August After July’s Surge
- Deficit: $85.5 bil. in August, down $17.3 bil. (-16.8%) from July’s $102.8 bil.
- Exports -1.3%, the third m/m fall in four months, led by a 6.8% drop in consumer goods exports.
- Imports -7.0%, down for the fourth month in five, led by an 18.9% plunge in imports of industrial supplies & materials.
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