- Total retail sales -0.6% (+5.0% y/y) in July vs. +0.2% (+6.8% y/y) in June.
- Ex-auto sales -0.3% (+5.8% y/y), second successive m/m decline; auto sales -1.8% (+1.9% y/y), first drop since Apr.
- Ex-gas sales -0.6% (+4.2% y/y) and ex-auto & gas sales -0.2% (+4.8% y/y); both up m/m from Jan. to June.
- Retail control group -0.4% (+4.6% y/y) after six consecutive m/m increases.
- Declines m/m: nonstore sales (-2.2%), gasoline stations (-0.9%), electronics stores (-0.5%).
- Gains m/m: clothing stores (+1.9%), health & personal care stores (+0.7%), misc. stores (+0.5%), restaurants (+0.5%).
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Idx up 2.4 pts. to 99.8 in July, above its 52-year avg. of 98.0.
- Uncertainty Idx up 2 pts. to 91, well above the historical avg. of 68.
- Expectations for economy up 2 pts. to 15%, highest since Feb.
- Expected real sales down 2 pts. to 7% from June’s five-month high.
- Plans to expand business up 4 pts. to 12%, a five-month high.
- Hiring plans up 9 pts. to 20%, highest since Oct. ’22.
- Firms raising avg. selling prices down 7 pts. to 31%, a three-month low.
- Top three business concerns: labor quality (27%), taxes (16%), and inflation (14%).
USA| Aug 05 2026U.S. ISM Services PMI Edges Up in July, Indicating Expansion for the 25th Straight Month
- ISM Services PMI slightly up to 54.1 in July, remaining above the 12-month avg. of 53.4.
- Business Activity (59.1) expands for the 25th consecutive mth.; New Orders (57.2) for the 14th straight mth.; Employment (47.4), at a four-month low, contracts in four of five mths.; Supplier Deliveries (52.8 vs. 54.4).
- Prices Index (70.3) elevated and above 70 for the fourth time in five mths., indicating prices rising since June ’17.
USA| Aug 04 2026U.S. Factory Orders Unexpectedly Decline in June
- Factory orders -0.3% (+7.4% y/y) in June, second straight m/m decrease; still 14.0% above the Jan. ’24 low.
- Durable goods orders +0.5%, third m/m gain in four mths.; nondurable goods orders -1.2% and shipments -0.2%, first m/m declines since Nov.
- Mining, oil field & gas field machinery -27.2%, steepest m/m drop since Apr. ’16.
- Transportation orders -0.1%, led by m/m falls of 7.2% in defense aircraft orders and 3.9% in ships & boats.
- Unfilled orders +0.6%, 11th straight m/m rise.
- Inventories +0.1%, eighth consecutive m/m increase.
USA| Aug 03 2026U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at Highest Level Since May ’22; New Orders, Production, and Employment Growing
- ISM Mfg. PMI up to 55.6 in July; seventh straight month above 50.
- Production (58.5) reaches highest level since Nov. ’21 and expands for the ninth consecutive mth.; new orders (56.7) for the seventh successive mth.
- Employment (52.8) above 50 for the first time since Sept. ’23; at highest level since Aug. ’22.
- Prices Index (71.1) at a five-month low, still indicating prices rising for the 22nd straight mth.
- Exports (53.0) highest since Mar. ’22; imports (55.7) highest since June ’21.
- Deficit: $101.46 bil. in June, down $4.43 bil. (-4.2%) from May’s $105.89 bil.
- Exports -1.8%, second straight m/m decline to a five-month low, driven by a 4.4% drop in exports of industrial supplies & materials.
- Imports -2.6%, first m/m decrease since Jan., w/ all end-use import categories down, led by drops of 6.3% in other goods and 3.8% in nonauto consumer goods.
USA| Jul 27 2026U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound Less Than Expected in June
- June headline orders +0.3% m/m, third rise in four mths.; +7.4% y/y, positive since Jan. ’25 except for May (-3.0%).
- Nondefense aircraft & parts +3.7% m/m vs. May’s -51.1%; defense aircraft & parts -7.2% m/m, first drop since Jan.
- Transportation orders -0.2%, second consecutive m/m decline; orders ex transp. +0.6%, 14th straight m/m gain.
- Computers & electronic products +3.1%, ninth increase in 10 mths.
- Core capital goods shipments +1.9%, ninth gain in 10 mths., pointing to a moderate contribution to Q2’26 GDP from business equipt. spending.
- Durable goods shipments +0.7%; unfilled orders +0.6%; inventories +0.3%.
- CFNAI up to -0.02 in June, remaining negative for the third time in four months.
- One of four CFNAI components down m/m; two make negative contributions.
- CFNAI-MA3 slightly up to -0.05, third negative reading in four mths.; above -0.70 (recession signal).
- CFNAI Diffusion Index down to -0.03, lowest since February.
- June IP +0.1% (+1.1% y/y), fourth m/m increase in five months.
- Manufacturing unchanged (+1.1% y/y), w/ durables -0.1% and nondurables +0.2%.
- Selected high-tech +0.5%, eighth gain in nine mths.; motor vehicles +0.7%, sixth rise in seven mths.
- Mining +0.4% (+2.4% y/y), third consecutive m/m increase.
- Utilities +0.4% (+0.3% y/y), led by a 0.9% rebound in electric utilities output.
- Key categories in market groups post mixed results.
- Capacity utilization steady at 76.1%; mfg. capacity utilization marginally down to 75.7%.
- HMI weakens m/m in July, indicating most builders remain pessimistic about the current and near-term housing outlook.
- All three HMI components down, w/ the steepest m/m drop in prospective buyer traffic (-8.0%).
- Mixed regional performance m/m: down in the Northeast (-18.0%) and West (-7.4%); up in the Midwest (+2.2%); flat in the South.
USA| Jul 15 2026U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Rebounds Strongly in July
- General Business Conditions Index up 9.9 pts. to 15.6 in July; fourth straight expansion.
- Shipments (24.4), highest since Apr. ’22; new orders (22.2); unfilled orders (5.0); inventories (4.0).
- Employment (11.4), a solid reading and highest since Dec. ’22.
- Prices paid (52.3) and prices received (27.6) both at three-month lows.
- Firms fairly optimistic: Future Business Conditions Index down to a still-positive 27.9; future prices paid at a four-month-low 53.0.
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Idx up 2.1 pts. to 97.4 in June, slightly below its 52-year avg. of 98.0.
- Uncertainty Idx down 2 pts. to 89, remaining well above the historical avg. of 68.
- Expectations for economy up 10 pts. to 13%, a four-month high.
- Expected real sales up 8 pts. to 9%, a five-month high.
- Plans to expand business up 1 pt. to 8%, highest in three mths.
- Firms raising avg. selling prices up 2 pts. to 38%, highest since Feb. ’23.
- Top three business concerns: inflation (21%), taxes (19%), and labor quality (19%).
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