- July NFIB Optimism Index rises 0.9 pts. to 91.9; its 19th straight month below the 49-year average of 98.
- Small Business Uncertainty Index increases to 80; highest since June ’21.
- Outlook for business conditions in the next six months, while improving, remains in negative territory, at -30%; expected real sales up only two pts. to -12%, still a pessimistic perspective.
- Regarding Single Most Important Problem, inflation remains a major business concern as does the quality of labor.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has almost 20 years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (almost 30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Aug 08 2023U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Shows Less Pessimism in July Amid Challenging Economic Environment
- Total June construction +0.5% (3.5% y/y), marginally less than expected.
- Residential private construction increases 0.9% (-10.4% y/y), led by m/m construction gains in single-family and multi-family.
- Nonresidential private construction is virtually unchanged (+20.9% y/y) after a May drop.
- Public sector construction grows 0.3% (13.6% y/y), up for the 10th consecutive month, led by a 0.3% rise (13.8% y/y) in nonresidential public construction.
- Composite Index is at -11 in July, reflecting drops in production to -20 and new orders to -20 and a rebound in employment to a positive 4.
- Price indexes are mixed, w/ prices paid for raw materials rising to 9 and prices received for finished goods falling to -7.
- Expectations for future activity remain mostly flat, w/ employment expected to rise further.
USA| Jul 25 2023U.S. FHFA House Prices Rise for the Fifth Straight Month in May
- FHFA HPI +0.7% m/m in May; +2.8% y/y at an 11-year low.
- House prices rise m/m in eight of nine census divisions; prices in New England fall.
- House prices in the Mountain region and the Pacific region continue to drop y/y.
- IP -0.5% in June; May revised down but April revised up.
- Mfg. IP declines 0.3%, w/ durable goods down 0.1% and nondurable goods down 0.6%.
- Utilities output decreases for the fifth time in six months.
- Mining activity and consumer goods output down for the second successive month.
- Capacity utilization falls 0.5%-pt. to a six-month-low 78.9%; mfg. capacity utilization falls 0.3%-pt. to a three-month-low 78.0%.
- Purchase applications rise for the fourth week in five while applications for loan refinancing fall to a five-week low.
- Effective interest rates rise for all types of mortgages; at a record high for 30-year Jumbo and 5-year ARM.
- The average size of a mortgage loan increases for the third week in four.
- 46.0 in June vs. 46.9 in May; below 50 for the eighth consecutive month.
- New orders contract for the 10th straight month; production contracts for the sixth month in seven.
- Employment contracts following two months of expansion.
- Prices index declines to a six-month low.
- May sales +12.2% m/m to 763,000 units SAAR; the third straight monthly rise.
- Sales gain m/m in all four major regions; sales rise y/y except in the West.
- Median sales price, up for the third time in four months, rebounds to $416,300.
- Supply of new homes for sale falls to the lowest since Feb. ’22.
- LEI down for the 14th consecutive month.
- Coincident Economic Index up for the second straight month.
- Lagging Economic Index rebounds marginally.
USA| Jun 14 2023U.S. Mortgage Applications Rebound to a Four-Week High After Four Straight Weekly Drops
- Following four successive w/w declines, applications for loans to purchase rise to a four-week high and applications for refinancing a loan rise to a three-week high.
- Effective interest rates decline for 30-year FRM but rise for other types of mortgages.
- Average loan size falls for the third consecutive week.
USA| Jun 05 2023U.S. Factory Orders Rise for the Second Straight Month in April
- April new orders (+0.4%) and durable goods orders (+1.1%) both up for the second consecutive month, while nondurable goods orders (-0.1%) and shipments (-0.4%) post their fifth m/m decline in six months.
- Unfilled orders grow 0.8%, the fourth m/m increase in five months and the biggest since Jan. ’22.
- Inventories rebound 0.5%, the first m/m rise since January.
- Total Apr. construction +1.2% (7.2% y/y), higher than expected.
- Residential private construction rises 0.5% (-9.2% y/y), led by m/m construction gains in home improvement and multi-family but partly offset by a 0.8% drop (-24.7% y/y) in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction increases 2.4% (31.2% y/y), up for the 11th time in 12 months.
- Public sector construction grows 1.1% (16.5% y/y), up for the 10th time in 11 months, led by a 1.1% rise (16.8% y/y) in nonresidential public construction.
- of12Go to 2 page