- NFIB Small Business Optimism Index up 2.2 pts. to 93.7 in July.
- Business conditions in the next six months up 18 pts. to -7%, the highest level since Nov. ’20.
- Expected real sales improve 4 pts. to a 7-month-high -9%, still indicating pessimism.
- Inflation (25%) remains top business problem, followed by Quality of Labor (19%).
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Aug 13 2024U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Rises in July to the Highest Level Since Feb. ’22
- 51.4 in July vs. 48.8 in June, higher than expected; 0.5 pts. below the 12-month avg. of 51.9.
- Business Activity (54.5, the 49th expansion in 50 mths.), New Orders (52.4, the 48th expansion in 50 mths.), Employment (51.1, the first expansion since January), and Supplier Deliveries (47.6 vs. 52.2).
- Prices Index rises 0.7 pts. to 57.0, remaining above 50 since June ’17.
USA| Aug 01 2024U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Drops in June; Down for the Second Straight Month
- June construction spending -0.3% m/m; +6.2% y/y, the lowest since July ’23.
- Residential private construction -0.3% m/m, led by a 1.2% decrease in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.1% m/m, the fourth m/m decline in five months.
- Public sector construction -0.4% m/m, reflecting m/m drops in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.
- PHSI +4.8% in June vs. -1.9% in May; the first m/m rise since March.
- Home sales gain m/m in all four regions, w/ the highest m/m rate in the South (6.3%)
- Home sales decrease y/y in the Northeast, Midwest and South, but rebound y/y in the West (1.0%).
USA| Jul 30 2024U.S. FHFA House Prices Virtually Unchanged M/M in May
- May FHFA HPI -0.03% (+5.7% y/y, lowest since July ’23) vs. +0.3% (+6.5% y/y) in April.
- House prices up m/m in five of nine census divisions, w/ the highest rate in New England (0.3%).
- House prices up y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in New England (9.2%).
USA| Jul 25 2024U.S. Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Drop in June
- A sharp 6.6% m/m fall in June following four straight m/m rises.
- Nondefense aircraft orders plummet 127.2% m/m.
- Transportation orders plunge 20.5% m/m; excluding transportation, orders rise 0.5% m/m.
- Core capital goods shipments up only 0.1% m/m vs. a 0.7% May decline.
- Durable goods shipments up, unfilled orders down, and inventories unchanged.
USA| Jul 24 2024U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows to $96.84 Billion in June
- A three-month low and the first narrowing since December.
- Exports rebound 2.5% in June, the second m/m gain in three months.
- Imports rise 0.7% m/m vs. a 0.7% May drop.
- Import prices 0.0% (1.6% y/y) in June vs. -0.2% (+1.4% y/y) in May, reflecting a 1.0% m/m drop in imported fuel prices.
- Excluding fuels, import prices rise 0.2%, up for the seventh time in eight months.
- Export prices fall 0.5% (+0.7% y/y), led by a 0.6% m/m decline in nonag export prices.
- Year-on-year import & export price growth rates rise modestly.
- Affordability continues to fall, w/ HAI down for four straight months.
- Median sales price of a home rises for the fourth consecutive month to a record high.
- Mortgage rates up to a six-month-high 7.14%; mortgage payments up to a record high.
- Median family income rises to a record-high $102,364 (+5.3% y/y).
- 48.8 in June vs. 53.8 in May; 3.3 pts. below the 12-month average of 52.1.
- Business Activity (49.6, the first contraction since May ’20), New Orders (47.3, the first contraction since Dec. ’22), Employment (46.1, the fifth straight contraction), and Supplier Deliveries (52.2, above 50 for the second successive month).
- Prices Index falls to a three-month-low 56.3, albeit remaining above 50 since June ’17.
- May construction spending -0.1% m/m; +6.4% y/y, the lowest since July ’23.
- Residential private construction down 0.2% m/m, led by a 0.7% drop in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction down 0.3% m/m, the fourth straight m/m fall.
- Public sector construction up 0.5% m/m, reflecting m/m gains in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.
- 47.4 in June vs. 35.4 in May; 5.4 pts. above the year-to-date average of 42.0.
- All the five subindexes increase in June but three remain below 50.
- New Orders (45.6, the 9th contraction in 10 mths.), Employment (44.1, the 7th straight contraction), Order Backlogs (40.5, the highest reading since Nov.), Production (54.6, the first expansion since Dec.), and Supplier Deliveries (50.7, the first above 50 since Jan.).
- Prices paid index falls 11.9 pts. to 56.5, a one-year low.
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