- PHSI -6.3% (-2.5% y/y) in April vs. +5.5% (-1.2% y/y) in March.
- Widespread m/m falls in home sales, w/ the deepest decline in the West (-8.9%).
- Home sales down y/y in the West (-6.5%), Northeast (-3.0%), and South (-3.0%) but up y/y in the Midwest (+2.2%).
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
- Headline: -6.3% (+3.2% y/y) in April vs. +7.6% (+10.0% y/y) in March.
- Nondefense aircraft orders plunge 51.5% m/m vs. a 158.5% March surge.
- Transportation orders slump 17.1% m/m; excluding transportation, orders rebound 0.2% m/m.
- Core capital goods shipments dip 0.1%, the first m/m easing since October.
- Durable goods shipments +0.4% m/m, unfilled orders unchanged, and inventories +0.1% m/m.
USA| May 13 2025U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Falls to a Six-month Low in April Amid Continued Uncertainty
- Apr. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index down 1.6 pts. to 95.8; the fourth straight m/m fall.
- Uncertainty Index down 4 pts. to 92, the lowest since Dec.
- Expectations for economy down 6 pts. to 15%, the lowest since Oct.
- Expected real sales down 4 pts. to -1%, the first negative reading since Oct.
- Net percent of firms raising avg. selling prices down 1 pt. to a 3-month-low 25%.
- Quality of labor (19%), taxes (16%), and inflation (14%) are the top three business concerns.
- March manufacturers’ new orders +4.3% m/m; +6.0% y/y, highest since Nov. ’22.
- Durable goods orders (+9.2%) jump m/m, while nondurable goods orders (-0.3%) and shipments (-0.1%) decline m/m.
- Transportation equipt. orders +27.1% m/m, w/ a 139.0% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft & parts orders.
- Unfilled orders +2.0%, the eighth m/m rise in nine months.
- Inventories +0.1%, the fifth consecutive m/m increase.
USA| May 01 2025U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Drops in March, the First M/M Fall Since September
- March construction spending -0.5% m/m; +2.8% y/y, the lowest y/y rate since May ’19.
- Residential private construction -0.4% m/m, led by a 1.2% drop in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.8% m/m, down for the second month in three.
- Public sector construction -0.2% m/m, reflecting a 0.2% decline in nonresidential public building.
USA| Apr 29 2025U.S. FHFA House Price Growth Continues to Decelerate in February
- Feb. FHFA HPI +0.1% m/m (+3.9% y/y, lowest since June ’23); +0.3% m/m (+5.0% y/y) in Jan.
- House prices up m/m in six of nine census divisions but down in Pacific, Mountain, and West South Central.
- House prices up y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in Middle Atlantic (7.0%) and the lowest rate in Pacific (0.9%).
- CFNAI -0.03 in March vs. +0.24 in February.
- Two of four CFNAI components fall m/m and three make negative contributions.
- Personal Consumption & Housing index rises to the highest since Jan. ’23.
- CFNAI-MA3 declines to -0.01, the first negative reading since Dec.; still above -0.70 (recession signal).
- March IP -0.3% (+1.3% y/y), led by a 5.8% m/m drop in utilities output.
- Mfg. IP +0.3%, reflecting m/m rises of 1.8% in aerospace & misc. transp. equipt. and 1.2% in auto production (w/ durable goods up 0.6% and nondurable goods unchanged).
- Mining activity rises 0.6%, the third m/m gain in four months.
- Key categories in market groups post mixed results.
- Capacity utilization down 0.4%pt. to 77.8%; mfg. capacity utilization up 0.2%pt. to 77.3%, the highest since May ’24.
USA| Apr 15 2025U.S. Import Prices Ease in March While Export Prices Hold Steady
- Import prices -0.1% (+0.9% y/y) in Mar. vs. +0.2% (+1.6% y/y) in Feb., reflecting a 2.3% drop in imported fuel prices.
- Excluding fuels, import prices up 0.1% (1.5% y/y) for the second straight month.
- Export prices unchanged (+2.4% y/y), reflecting no change in agricultural exp. prices and a 0.1% dip in nonag exp. prices.
- Manufacturers’ new orders +0.6% (+2.5% y/y) in Feb.; +1.8% (+3.3% y/y) in Jan.
- Durable goods orders (+1.0%), nondurable goods orders (+0.3%), and shipments (+0.7%) all increase m/m.
- Unfilled orders up 0.1%, the seventh m/m rise in eight months.
- Inventories up 0.1%, the fourth straight m/m increase.
- Construction spending +0.7% m/m (+2.9% y/y) in Feb. vs. -0.5% m/m (+2.7% y/y) in Jan.
- Residential private construction recovers 1.3% m/m, up for the fourth month in five, led by a 2.0% gain in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction rebounds 0.4% m/m, up for the third month in four.
- Public sector construction increases 0.2% m/m, reflecting a 0.2% rise in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.
USA| Mar 27 2025U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows in February to $147.9 Billion after January’s Record High
- First narrowing in goods trade deficit since October.
- Exports rise 4.1% m/m, up for the third month in four, led by a 12.7% rebound in auto exports.
- Imports fall 0.2% m/m after three straight m/m rises, led by a 4.9% drop in imports of industrial supplies & materials.
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