- CFNAI down to -0.08 in July, negative for the second time in three months.
- Three of four CFNAI components down m/m; two make negative contributions.
- CFNAI-MA3 down to -0.04, second negative reading in three mths.; still above -0.70 (recession signal).
- CFNAI Diffusion Index down to +0.05, remaining positive for the fourth time in five mths.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Aug 24 2026Chicago Fed National Activity Index Negative in July After June’s Upwardly Revised Positive Reading
USA| Aug 18 2026U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output Up in July, Extending Growth Trend
- July IP +0.2% (+1.1% y/y), third m/m increase in four months.
- Manufacturing +0.2% (+1.2% y/y), w/ durables +0.7% and nondurables -0.4%.
- Selected high-tech +1.9%, ninth gain in 10 mths.; motor vehicles -2.1%, first m/m drop since March.
- Utilities +0.5% (+0.7% y/y), fourth straight m/m rise, led by a 0.5% gain in electric utilities output.
- Mining +0.2% (+1.0% y/y), up for the third time in four mths.
- Key categories in market groups mostly increase.
- Capacity utilization up to 76.3%, a one-year high; mfg. capacity utilization up to 76.0%, highest since June ’24.
USA| Aug 17 2026U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Surprises to the Upside in August, Highest Since Dec. ’21
- General Business Conditions Index up 5.0 pts. to 20.6 in Aug.; fifth straight expansion.
- New orders (17.3) down 4.9 pts. and shipments (11.7) down 12.7 pts. from a four-year high, both still indicating expansion.
- Unfilled orders (15.5), highest since Apr. ’22; inventories (-5.2), first contraction since Jan.
- Employment (9.3), a three-month low following July’s highest level since Dec. ’22.
- Prices paid (58.6) up 6.3 pts. from July; prices received (22.7), a four-month low.
- Firms remaining optimistic: Future Business Conditions Index up to 32.1, a three-month high; future prices paid rising to 57.7 from a four-month low.
- Total retail sales -0.6% (+5.0% y/y) in July vs. +0.2% (+6.8% y/y) in June.
- Ex-auto sales -0.3% (+5.8% y/y), second successive m/m decline; auto sales -1.8% (+1.9% y/y), first drop since Apr.
- Ex-gas sales -0.6% (+4.2% y/y) and ex-auto & gas sales -0.2% (+4.8% y/y); both up m/m from Jan. to June.
- Retail control group -0.4% (+4.6% y/y) after six consecutive m/m increases.
- Declines m/m: nonstore sales (-2.2%), gasoline stations (-0.9%), electronics stores (-0.5%).
- Gains m/m: clothing stores (+1.9%), health & personal care stores (+0.7%), misc. stores (+0.5%), restaurants (+0.5%).
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Idx up 2.4 pts. to 99.8 in July, above its 52-year avg. of 98.0.
- Uncertainty Idx up 2 pts. to 91, well above the historical avg. of 68.
- Expectations for economy up 2 pts. to 15%, highest since Feb.
- Expected real sales down 2 pts. to 7% from June’s five-month high.
- Plans to expand business up 4 pts. to 12%, a five-month high.
- Hiring plans up 9 pts. to 20%, highest since Oct. ’22.
- Firms raising avg. selling prices down 7 pts. to 31%, a three-month low.
- Top three business concerns: labor quality (27%), taxes (16%), and inflation (14%).
USA| Aug 05 2026U.S. ISM Services PMI Edges Up in July, Indicating Expansion for the 25th Straight Month
- ISM Services PMI slightly up to 54.1 in July, remaining above the 12-month avg. of 53.4.
- Business Activity (59.1) expands for the 25th consecutive mth.; New Orders (57.2) for the 14th straight mth.; Employment (47.4), at a four-month low, contracts in four of five mths.; Supplier Deliveries (52.8 vs. 54.4).
- Prices Index (70.3) elevated and above 70 for the fourth time in five mths., indicating prices rising since June ’17.
USA| Aug 04 2026U.S. Factory Orders Unexpectedly Decline in June
- Factory orders -0.3% (+7.4% y/y) in June, second straight m/m decrease; still 14.0% above the Jan. ’24 low.
- Durable goods orders +0.5%, third m/m gain in four mths.; nondurable goods orders -1.2% and shipments -0.2%, first m/m declines since Nov.
- Mining, oil field & gas field machinery -27.2%, steepest m/m drop since Apr. ’16.
- Transportation orders -0.1%, led by m/m falls of 7.2% in defense aircraft orders and 3.9% in ships & boats.
- Unfilled orders +0.6%, 11th straight m/m rise.
- Inventories +0.1%, eighth consecutive m/m increase.
USA| Aug 03 2026U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at Highest Level Since May ’22; New Orders, Production, and Employment Growing
- ISM Mfg. PMI up to 55.6 in July; seventh straight month above 50.
- Production (58.5) reaches highest level since Nov. ’21 and expands for the ninth consecutive mth.; new orders (56.7) for the seventh successive mth.
- Employment (52.8) above 50 for the first time since Sept. ’23; at highest level since Aug. ’22.
- Prices Index (71.1) at a five-month low, still indicating prices rising for the 22nd straight mth.
- Exports (53.0) highest since Mar. ’22; imports (55.7) highest since June ’21.
- Deficit: $101.46 bil. in June, down $4.43 bil. (-4.2%) from May’s $105.89 bil.
- Exports -1.8%, second straight m/m decline to a five-month low, driven by a 4.4% drop in exports of industrial supplies & materials.
- Imports -2.6%, first m/m decrease since Jan., w/ all end-use import categories down, led by drops of 6.3% in other goods and 3.8% in nonauto consumer goods.
USA| Jul 27 2026U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound Less Than Expected in June
- June headline orders +0.3% m/m, third rise in four mths.; +7.4% y/y, positive since Jan. ’25 except for May (-3.0%).
- Nondefense aircraft & parts +3.7% m/m vs. May’s -51.1%; defense aircraft & parts -7.2% m/m, first drop since Jan.
- Transportation orders -0.2%, second consecutive m/m decline; orders ex transp. +0.6%, 14th straight m/m gain.
- Computers & electronic products +3.1%, ninth increase in 10 mths.
- Core capital goods shipments +1.9%, ninth gain in 10 mths., pointing to a moderate contribution to Q2’26 GDP from business equipt. spending.
- Durable goods shipments +0.7%; unfilled orders +0.6%; inventories +0.3%.
- CFNAI up to -0.02 in June, remaining negative for the third time in four months.
- One of four CFNAI components down m/m; two make negative contributions.
- CFNAI-MA3 slightly up to -0.05, third negative reading in four mths.; above -0.70 (recession signal).
- CFNAI Diffusion Index down to -0.03, lowest since February.
- June IP +0.1% (+1.1% y/y), fourth m/m increase in five months.
- Manufacturing unchanged (+1.1% y/y), w/ durables -0.1% and nondurables +0.2%.
- Selected high-tech +0.5%, eighth gain in nine mths.; motor vehicles +0.7%, sixth rise in seven mths.
- Mining +0.4% (+2.4% y/y), third consecutive m/m increase.
- Utilities +0.4% (+0.3% y/y), led by a 0.9% rebound in electric utilities output.
- Key categories in market groups post mixed results.
- Capacity utilization steady at 76.1%; mfg. capacity utilization marginally down to 75.7%.
- of15Go to 2 page