- General Business Conditions Index -14.3 in Apr. vs. -20.9 in Mar., showing contraction for the fifth straight month.
- Negative numbers for new orders (-16.2), shipments (-14.4), unfilled orders (-10.1), and employment (-5.1), but positive reading for inventories (3.4), the first positive since Nov. ’23.
- Inflation pressures increase, w/ prices paid rising to 33.7, the highest since May ’23.
- Optimism on the six-month outlook remains positive but subdued, w/ Future Business Conditions Index down to a four-month-low 16.7.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has ~20 years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
- February manufacturers’ new orders +1.4% (1.0% y/y), larger than expected.
- Rebounds in durable goods orders (1.3%), nondurable goods orders (1.6%), and shipments (1.4%).
- Unfilled orders hold steady for the second consecutive month.
- Inventories rise 0.3%, the first m/m increase since September.
USA| Apr 01 2024U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Declines for the Second Straight Month in February
- Construction spending -0.3% m/m in Feb.; +10.7% y/y, the lowest since Sept. ’23.
- Residential private construction rises 0.7% m/m, led by a 1.4% gain in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction drops 0.9% m/m, down for the second consecutive month.
- Public sector construction falls 1.2% m/m, w/ both residential & nonresidential public construction down 1.2% m/m.
- $91.84 billion deficit in Feb., larger than expected.
- Exports gain 2.8%, up for the third straight month.
- Imports increase 2.3%, up for the fifth month in six.
- FHFA HPI -0.1% (+6.3% y/y) in Jan. vs. +0.1% (+6.7% y/y) in Dec.
- House prices drop m/m in four of nine census divisions but rise m/m in West North Central and New England.
- House prices gain y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in East North Central (8.7%).
USA| Mar 21 2024U.S. Leading Economic Index Edges Up in February, the First M/M Increase in Two Years
- February LEI increases marginally following 23 straight m/m declines.
- Coincident Economic Index up for the seventh time in eight months.
- Lagging Economic Index up for the fourth time in five months.
- Import prices +0.3% (-0.8% y/y) in Feb. after +0.8 (-1.3% y/y) in Jan., led by a 1.8% m/m rise in imported fuel prices.
- Excluding fuels, import prices +0.2%, the fourth consecutive m/m gain.
- Export prices +0.8% (-1.8% y/y), reflecting rises of 0.8% m/m in both agricultural & nonagricultural export prices.
- Year-on-year import & export prices decline for the 13th straight month.
- Feb. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index falls 0.5 pt. to 89.4, below its long-term avg. of 98.
- Expected real sales rebound to -10% after plunging to -16%, still indicating pessimism.
- Business conditions in the next six months drop 1 pt. to -39%, a three-month low.
- Inflation (23%) replaces quality of labor (16%, the lowest since Apr. ’20) as top business problem.
- Deficit rises more than expected in Jan., widening for the fourth time in five months.
- Exports and imports both up for the second straight month.
- Real goods trade deficit widens to a three-month-high $86.00 billion.
- Goods trade deficits w/ China and EU rise to a three-month high; trade shortfall w/ Japan widens to a record high.
USA| Mar 05 2024U.S. Factory Orders Decline More Than Expected in January
- Jan. manufacturers’ new orders -3.6% (-2.0% y/y); Dec. revised down to -0.3% (+1.8% y/y).
- Continued m/m declines in durable goods orders (-6.2%), nondurable goods orders (-1.1%), and shipments (-1.0%).
- Unfilled orders rise 0.2%, the 13th m/m increase in 14 months.
- Inventories dip 0.1% after holding steady for three straight months.
USA| Mar 01 2024U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Eases in January
- Construction spending down 0.2% m/m in Jan., the first fall since Dec. ’22; +11.7% y/y, the lowest since Sept. ’23.
- Residential private construction up 0.2% m/m, led by a 0.6% rise in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction dips 0.1% m/m following six straight monthly rises.
- Public sector construction down 0.9% m/m, the first drop since Aug. ’22, led by a 1.0% fall in nonresidential public construction.
- FHFA HPI +0.1% (+6.6% y/y) in Dec., the smallest m/m gain in 11 months.
- House prices rise m/m in four of nine census divisions but fall m/m in West North Central, New England, and Pacific.
- House prices gain y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in New England (10.1%).
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