U.S. ADP Private Employment Rebounds in December
Summary
- Private payrolls +41K; second m/m increase in three months.
- Hiring increase is driven by medium-sized businesses (+34K).
- Service-sector jobs up (+44K), led by education & health svs. (+39K) and leisure & hosp. (+24K); goods-producing jobs dip (-3K).
- Wage growth accelerates y/y for job changers (6.6%) but steady for job stayers (4.4%).
U.S. nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 41,000 (0.5% y/y) in December following a 29,000 drop in November (-32,000 initially) and a 47,000 gain in October (unrevised), according to the ADP National Employment Report. The three-month average change was +20,000 in December, compared to +24,000 in Q3’25, +22,000 in Q2, and +139,000 in Q1. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 48,000 increase in December.
Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 9,000 (-0.2% y/y) in December—the first m/m rise since July—following a steep 96,000 drop in November (-120,000 initially), the largest of four consecutive m/m decreases. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) gained 34,000 (0.6% y/y) in December after a 45,000 advance in November (+51,000 initially) and three successive m/m declines. Large business hiring (500+ employees) edged up 2,000 (1.8% y/y) after a 36,000 November rise (+39,000 initially), marking the smallest of seven straight m/m increases.
Service-producing jobs rose 44,000 (0.4% y/y) in December after an 11,000 decline in November (-12,000 initially), registering the second m/m increase in three months and the largest since July. December’s gain was led by education & health services (+39,000), followed by leisure & hospitality (+24,000), trade, transportation & utilities (+11,000), financial activities (+6,000), and other services (+5,000). To the downside, m/m employment declined in professional & business services (-29,000) and information (-12,000).
Goods-producing employment fell 3,000 (+0.6% y/y) in December, the third m/m fall in four months, on top of an 18,000 decrease in November (-19,000 initially). December’s fall was led by manufacturing (-5,000), while construction (+1,000) and natural resources & mining (+1,000) both posted small gains.
By region, nonfarm private payroll employment increased m/m in the South (+54,000; +0.4% y/y), the Northeast (+40,000; +0.2% y/y), and the Midwest (+9,000; +0.8% y/y). In contrast, employment fell in the West (-61,000; +0.4% y/y).
Wage growth for job changers accelerated to 6.6% y/y in December from 6.3% y/y in November but remained well below a high of 16.1% in April 2022. Wage growth for job stayers held steady at 4.4% y/y, the same rate as in August and in June 2021. Pay growth also held steady in major industries, including in financial activities (5.2% y/y), manufacturing (4.8% y/y), leisure & hospitality, (4.5%), and education & health services (4.3% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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