U.S. Retail Sales Hold Steady in October Following Four Straight M/M Gains
Summary
- October total retail sales +0.03% (+3.5% y/y), w/ mixed results across categories.
- Ex-auto sales +0.4% (+4.0% y/y); auto sales -1.6% (+1.2% y/y).
- Sales rebound m/m in department stores (+4.9%) and furniture stores (+2.3%).
- Sales drop m/m in bldg. materials & garden equipt. stores (-0.9%) and gasoline stations (-0.8%).
Total retail sales were virtually unchanged m/m in October after downwardly revised increases of 0.1% in September (+0.2% initially) and 0.5% in August (+0.6% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The October flat reading followed four consecutive m/m rises and declines in May and April. A 0.1% m/m October increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate decelerated to 3.5% in October, the lowest since May, from 4.2% in September; this compared with 3.2% in October 2024 and remained far below a high of 17.1% in February 2022 and a peak of 51.8% in April 2021.
Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales rose 0.4% (4.0% y/y) in October, the fifth straight m/m rise, after a 0.1% uptick in September (+0.3% initially). A 0.2% m/m October increase had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts fell 1.6% (+1.2% y/y) following a 0.1% September downtick and three successive m/m increases; this compared to a 6.9% drop (-4.6% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales following no change in September.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.8% (5.1% y/y) in October, the fifth m/m rise in six months, following a 0.1% dip in September. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials advanced 0.6% (4.9% y/y), also up for the fifth time in six months, following a flat September reading.
Sales by category were mixed in October. To the upside, general merchandise store sales rose 0.5% (2.0% y/y), the fifth consecutive m/m rise, after a 0.1% uptick in September; within this grouping, department store sales surged 4.9% (4.6% y/y)—the third m/m increase in four months and the largest since February 2022—following a 0.3% September decline. Furniture & home furnishing store sales rebounded 2.3% (0.5% y/y), the first m/m gain since July, after a 2.4% September decrease. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales climbed 1.9% (4.6% y/y), up for the third time in four months, reversing a 1.7% September decrease. Nonstore retail sales recovered 1.8% (9.0% y/y), the eighth m/m gain in nine months, after falling 0.4% in September. Miscellaneous store sales rose 1.5% (9.5% y/y) following a 2.2% September increase and two successive m/m decreases. Clothing & accessory store sales grew 0.9% (5.7% y/y), the seventh m/m rise in eight months, reversing a 0.9% September drop. Electronics & appliance store sales increased 0.7% (4.9% y/y) after holding steady in September.
To the downside, building materials & garden equipment store sales slid 0.9% (-4.5% y/y) in October, the third m/m slide in four months, after a 0.1% downtick in September. Gasoline station sales fell 0.8% (+1.9% y/y), the first m/m fall since May, after a 1.9% September advance.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales fell 0.6% (+5.7% y/y) in October, down for the second month in three, following a 1.3% gain in September. Food & beverage store sales, however, rose 0.3% (2.2% y/y), the fourth m/m rise in five months, following a 0.1% September easing.
Consumers appeared to dine out less frequently in October amid still-high inflation (September CPI +0.3% m/m, +3.0% y/y; core CPI +0.2% m/m, +3.0% y/y). Restaurant & drinking place sales fell 0.4% (+4.1% y/y) in October, the first m/m fall since May, following a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in September (+0.7% initially).
Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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