U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Rises to a Three-Month High in November

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 99.0 in November, the highest level since August, from 98.2 in October and 98.8 in September, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. This was the seventh consecutive month that the index was above the 52-year average of 98. The index was down from its recent peak of 105.1 in December 2024 and 101.7 in November 2024 but up from a low of 88.5 in March 2024. Six of the 10 index components rose, three fell, and one was unchanged. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index rose to 91 in November following a 12-point plunge to 88 in October, driven primarily by an increase in business owners expressing uncertainty about their capital expenditure plans over the next three to six months. The index, while down from its record high of 110 in October 2024, was above its recent low of 86 in December 2024 and a low of 65 in November 2023.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months remained positive for the 13th straight month in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve fell to 15% in November, the lowest level since April, on top of a three-point decline to 20% in October; these readings were well below their recent high of 52% in December 2024 but significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales rose to a net 15% in November from 6% in October, marking the strongest of seven successive positive readings and the highest level since January 2025. The latest figure was below its recent high of 22% in December 2024 but above a low of -18% in August 2024. A net -9% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up from -13% in October. The latest result remained below the most recent positive reading of 1% in May 2022 and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to expand the business held steady at 13% in November and October, the highest reading since August; the latest figure, while down from its recent high of 20% in December 2024, was up from a low of 2% in March 2023. Plans to make capital outlays fell to 20% in November, the lowest reading since April, from a 10-month-high 23% in October; these numbers were down from their recent high of 28% in November 2024 and a high of 31% in October 2021. Expected credit conditions declined to -5% in November from -3% in October; this result was slightly below its recent high of -2% in December 2024 but above a low of -11% in November 2023. Meanwhile, a net -1% of respondents viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in November, up from -4% in October.

On the labor front, fifty percent of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in November, slightly up from 49% in October. These numbers were up from the recent low of 43% in August but below a high of 56% in August 2024 and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 19% planned to increase employment in November, up from 15% in October and posting the highest reading since December 2024; it was above a low of 11% in March 2024 but below a high of 26% in May 2022 and a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 33% reported positions not able to be filled in November, up slightly from 32% in October and the highest level since July; these figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The measure increased to -23% in November, a still-weak reading, following a nine-point drop to -25% in October. These readings, while up from a low of -37% in August 2024, were below the most recent high of -16% in September and a high of -5% in June 2021.

On the pricing front, actual and expected selling prices, though trending lower, remained at an inflationary level, indicating continued inflationary pressures. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices jumped to 34% in November after a three-point decline to 21% in October, marking the highest reading since March 2023 and the biggest m/m increase in the survey’s history. The latest reading was up from 24% in November 2024 but well below a high of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices held steady at 30% in November following a one-point dip to 30% in October; it was above 28% in November 2024 but below highs of 33% in March 2024 and 52% in March 2022.

Wage inflation remained relatively high in the November survey. A net 26% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, unchanged from October. It was down from a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 24% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, up from 19% reported in October and marking the highest reading since December 2024; this remained below highs of 28% in November 2024, 30% in November 2023, and 32% in October 2022.

The quality of labor was cited as the single most important problem facing small businesses, as reported by 21% of NFIB members in November, down six points from 27% in October. Inflation ranked second and remained a key challenge for small businesses, as reported by 15% of respondents in November—the highest reading since March 2025—compared with 12% in October; these readings were well below a peak of 37% in July 2022. Taxes ranked third as the next most important problem, as reported by 14% of respondents in November—the lowest reading since November 2024—compared with 16% in October. Other concerns (in November vs. October) included insurance cost/availability (10% vs. 8%), government requirements (10% vs. 7%), poor sales (9% vs. 10%), labor costs (8% vs. 8%), and other issues (7% vs. 5%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s SURVEYS database.