U.S. ADP Employment Rebounds in July
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Private payrolls increased 104,000 in July after a 23,000 decline in June.
- Goods-producing jobs rose 31,000, and service-producing jobs rose 74,000.
- Job stayer wage growth moderated further.
The ADP National Employment Report reported that nonfarm private sector payrolls rebounded in July, rising 104,000 (+1.2% y/y) after unexpectedly declining a revised 23,000 in June (previously -33,000). The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected an 82,000 increase in July.
Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) increased 12,000 in July after monthly declines in both May and June. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rebounded in July, increasing 46,000 after a 16,000 decline in June. Large business hiring (500+ employees) gained 46,000 in July vs. 32,000 in June.
Goods-producing employment rose 31,000 in July on top of a 34,000 rise in June. Construction jobs increased 15,000, up from an 8,000 gain in June. Manufacturing jobs rose 7,000, down from 18,000 in June. Natural resources and mining jobs increased 9,000 in July vs. 8,000 in June.
Service-producing jobs rebounded in July, advancing 74,000 after a 58,000 decline in June. Every major sector except education and health services (-38,000) posted a rise in jobs in July. This was the fifth monthly decline in education and health services jobs in the past six months. Financial sector jobs gained 28,000 in July after falling 12,000 in June. Professional and business services jobs increased 9,000 after having declined 57,000 in June and 13,000 in May. Leisure and hospitality jobs gained 46,000 in July, up from a 33,000 increase in June.
Jobs declined 18,000 in the Northeast in July, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Jobs rose in the other three major regions, increasing 18,000 in the Midwest, 43,000 in the South and 75,000 in the West.
Wage growth for job stayers continued to moderate in July with the year/year growth rate of the median annual pay slowing to 4.4%, the slowest pace since June 2021, from 4.5% in June. Wage growth for job changers was unchanged at 7.0% y/y for the fourth consecutive month. The slowdown in wage growth for job stayers was widespread across major industries with y/y growth rates falling or unchanged in every major sector.
The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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