Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we review the key outcomes from last week’s US–China summit, which, while largely symbolic as a reset in bilateral relations, also yielded several notable trade-related agreements (chart 1). We also examine China’s latest monthly data releases, which extended last month’s moderation in growth and further highlighted the increasingly two-speed nature of its economy (chart 2). Turning to Japan, we look ahead to this week’s key data releases. Q1 GDP growth appears likely to be supported by resilient exports, while the domestic picture—reflected in indicators such as household spending—continues to lag (chart 3). On the inflation front, upcoming CPI readings will be closely watched; if price pressures accelerate further alongside continued yen weakness, this could revive a policy dilemma for the Bank of Japan (chart 4). Zooming out, inflation appears to have reasserted itself as the dominant market driver, with nominal yields rising across markets (chart 5). At the same time, AI-related optimism has taken a back seat for now, as equity markets pull back from recent rallies (chart 6).

**The US-China summit**
The highly anticipated US–China summit concluded last week, with few details released immediately afterward. More information emerged early this week, as the White House outlined several key developments. Perhaps most importantly, though largely symbolic at this stage, the two sides agreed to build a “constructive relationship of strategic stability.” While the phrase does not imply any concrete policy actions, it may signal a shift away from the repeated tensions and frictions that have characterized recent interactions. The US and China also agreed that the Strait of Hormuz should be reopened, although no specific measures were announced to achieve this. On more tangible outcomes, the White House said China approved an initial purchase of 200 Boeing aircraft for Chinese airlines and committed to buying at least $17 billion of US agricultural products annually from 2026 to 2028. China also restored market access for US beef by renewing expired registrations for more than 400 US beef facilities and adding new listings, while resuming imports of US poultry.

260518T1.jpg

**China’s latest data releases**
Overall, the US–China summit signalled a more conciliatory tone between the world’s two largest economies, with the initially announced agreements broadly reinforcing that shift, including plans to establish two new boards focused on trade and investment. Meanwhile, China’s latest data releases offered further insight into the economy’s performance amid the ongoing oil supply squeeze linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Extending the slowdown already evident in March, April data showed weaker growth in retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment, as illustrated in chart 2. In the case of fixed asset investment, year-to-date growth slipped into contraction territory. The increasingly two-speed nature of China’s economy is becoming more apparent. On one hand, robust exports and still-solid manufacturing activity continue to support overall growth. On the other, softer retail sales and broader domestic demand remain a persistent drag on the economy.

260518T2.jpg

**Japan**
Beyond China, Japan will also be in focus this week, with several key indicators on growth and inflation due for release. Most notably, Japan’s preliminary Q1 GDP reading, due Tuesday, will provide the first comprehensive snapshot of the economy after incorporating the initial effects of the Middle East conflict. As with China, Japan’s economy exhibits a two-speed dynamic. Strong export growth is likely to have supported Q1 activity, reflecting resilient external demand. However, domestic indicators such as household spending continue to point to a fragile underlying picture (chart 3). This leaves Japan exposed to a similar risk as China: If external demand weakens under the weight of rising oil prices and broader uncertainty stemming from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, growth could come under significant pressure in the absence of secondary growth drivers.

260518T3.jpg

Inflation will also be a key focus in Japan this week, given its implications for household purchasing power, real economic growth, and monetary policy. While inflation is not yet showing a full resurgence, nationwide consumer price inflation picked up in March (chart 4), and Tokyo CPI data pointed to a modest firming in price pressures in April. These developments have coincided with a prolonged weakening of the yen, which, while supportive of exports, also raises inflationary pressures by increasing the cost of imported goods. If inflation were to return to the peaks seen in previous years, the Bank of Japan could once again face a policy dilemma, particularly if economic growth slows at the same time. In that scenario, the BoJ would need to balance the risks of persistent inflation against the need to support a weakening economy.

260518T4.jpg

**Market shifts**
Zooming out to broader market developments, and taking into account the recent US–China summit, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and earlier AI-driven optimism, it appears that AI enthusiasm has, for now, ceded its role as the dominant market driver. In its place, renewed inflation concerns have taken centre stage, weighing on bond prices and pushing yields higher, as shown in chart 5. This dynamic is particularly evident in some economies, such as Japan. While nominal government bond yields have risen sharply, real yields have edged lower, implying that inflation expectations have increased. These rising inflation expectations likely reflect the continued apparent impasse in US–Iran negotiations, along with the absence of concrete actions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease pressure on global energy markets.

260518T5.jpg

At the same time, AI optimism—which had previously underpinned equity market performance—has appeared to lose some momentum as a dominant price driver, with inflation concerns moving to the forefront. As shown in chart 6, after months of seemingly uninterrupted gains, equity indices in advanced Asian economies—typically heavy in technology and semiconductor exposure—pulled back last Friday, with further declines observed in Monday’s trading session. This shift has coincided with firmer crude oil prices, reinforcing the narrative that inflation risks and supply-side pressures linked to the Strait of Hormuz disruption are now firmly back in focus.

260518T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: After the Summit

Sandy Batten

260515r1.jpg

260515s1.jpg

Industrial production (IP) rose a much larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m in April, rebounding from an upwardly revised 0.3% m/m decline in March (previously -0.5% m/m), according to data released by the Federal Reserve Board. The Action Economics Survey looked for a 0.2% monthly gain. The y/y rate also rebounded in April, rising to 1.4% y/y after having fallen to 0.7% in March. IP has clearly trended up since late last year. Since November 2025, it has grown at a 3.6% annual rate. The current level of output is the highest since August 2019 but is still 1.5% below the November 2018 series peak.

Manufacturing output led the April rebound, rising 0.6% m/m (1.3% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.1% monthly increase in March (previously -0.1% m/m). Mining output fell in April for the second consecutive month, edging down 0.1% m/m (+0.2% y/y) after a 1.6% monthly drop in March (revised down from -1.2% m/m). Utilities production rebounded in April, jumping 1.6% m/m (2.7% y/y) and more than offsetting a 1.4% monthly decline in March (revised up from -2.3% previously). The rebound in utilities output reflected a 1.1% rise in electricity production and a 7.3% monthly jump in natural gas distribution, the first monthly gain in four months.

Within manufacturing, durable goods production jumped 1.2% m/m (3.2% y/y) in April after having been unchanged in March. A 3.7% m/m rebound in motor vehicles and parts production, the largest monthly gain since May 2025, led the April increase. Motor vehicles and parts production had fallen 2.4% m/m in March. Production of computers and electronic products increased 1.5% m/m, the fourth consecutive monthly rise. Aerospace output rose 1.6% m/m in April, the third consecutive monthly gain and the largest since July 2025. By contrast, furniture production fell 1.8% m/m, the third consecutive monthly decline. 

Output of nondurable manufactured goods edged down 0.1% m/m (-0.6% y/y) in April, the first monthly decline in four months. Production of apparel and leather goods slumped 2.2% m/m on top of a 2.0% monthly fall in March. Chemical output fell 0.9% m/m in April, its first monthly decline in four months. Output of plastics and rubber products fell 0.9% m/m, the first monthly fall in four months. By contrast, production of petroleum and coal products rose 1.0% m/m in April, the same monthly increase as in March.

By market group, output of consumer goods rebounded in April, increasing 0.9% m/m (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.8% m/m decline in March. Production of business equipment surged 1.5% m/m (+6.0% y/y) in April, the largest monthly gain since March 2025. Output of construction supplies was unchanged in April from March (+1.2% y/y) following a 0.9% m/m gain in March. Materials production rebounded in April, rising 0.5% m/m (1.2% y/y) after a 0.4% m/m decline in March.

In special classifications, output of selected high-tech industries increased 1.0% m/m (+9.2% y/y) in April following a 0.5% monthly gain in March. The rebound in motor vehicles and parts production reflected a 5.3% monthly surge in vehicle output, the largest monthly gain since May 2025. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries rose 0.6% m/m in April, the largest increase since February 2025, following a 0.1% m/m increase in March. Manufacturing output excluding both selected high-tech industries and motor vehicles and parts advanced 0.3% m/m in April, the same monthly gain as in March.

Capacity utilization rose to 76.1% in April from 75.7% in March. The April reading was the highest since last August but was still 3.3%-points below its long-term (1972-2025) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization increased to 75.8% in April from 75.4% in March, 2.4%-points below its long-term average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.



260515t1.jpg

260515u1.jpg

- Total industrial output increased a much larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m in April with a small upward revision to March.
- Manufacturing output increased 0.6% m/m, led by a 5.3% m/m rebound in vehicle production.
- Mining output edged down 0.1% m/m, while utilities production rose 1.9% m/m.
- The headline rate of capacity utilization rose to 76.1% in April, its highest reading since last August but still well below its long-term average.


U.S. Industrial Production Jumped in April

Robert Brusca

260515e.jpg

Industrial orders in Canada are back on an expansion path with orders growing 4.7% in March on top of a 6.9% gain in February. These statistics chronicle Canadian orders digging out from a hole they fell into early in 2026. Now the data show emerging sequential growth in Canadian orders, which are advancing 3.6% over 12 months at a 14.9% annual rate over six-months, and a 26.7% annual rate over three-months. Still, on the chart that plots the year-over-year growth rates these recent accelerated rates of growth appear as mere recoveries from what had been earlier weakness. It remains to be seen how much acceleration the Canadian economy will actually undergo.

Unfilled orders expanded in March for the second month in a row, growing 2.4% after growing 1.4% in February once again following the recovery theme.

Manufacturing shipments grew by 3% in March after growing 3.4% in February and after dropping sharply in January - again echoing the recovery theme. Durable goods show two months of increases with the March increase weak after a very strong rise in February. Motor vehicle output recovered very strongly in February, after falling at a 37.1% annual rate in January; motor vehicle output is up by 15% in March, a hefty growth rate but short of what was posted in February. Once again, we see an echo of the theme of recovery. However, shipments of durable goods excluding motor vehicles are less robust, after dropping 1.8% in January output rose by 3.8% in February and has fallen back, dropping by 1.1% in March, a small fly in the ointment of this recovery theme for Canada. And nondurable goods shipments saw a small increase in January of 0.2%, a flat February, and now an extremely strong, 5.6% month-to-month gain in March.

Canada's sequential growth rates are on the verge of showing broad acceleration. Orders clearly do accelerate from 12-months to six-months to three-months. Unfilled orders, however, accelerate over six-months compared to 12-months and then take a small step back over three-months to an annualized growth rate of 13.4% - a very small step back that is still far above the 12-month growth pace. Manufacturing shipments, too, show a small flaw in acceleration as the 6-month pace dips ever so slightly before logging a very strong 3-month pace. Durable goods then are an exception to the acceleration theme; however, nondurable goods get back on board with the strong acceleration move.

**Rankings**
The rank standings for these categories are based on annual growth rates and comparison with data extend back approximately 25 years. Orders have a 58-percentile standing, unfilled orders have a 57-percentile standing, while manufacturing shipments have a 62-percentile standing. Shipments for durable goods durables excluding motor vehicles and from motor vehicles as a stand-alone have rankings in their 30th- to 40th-percentiles, below their historic medians. (medians occur at a ranking of 50). However, nondurables have an extremely strong 80.5 percentile standing. The data are consistent, the recovery and progress with the exception that durable goods shipments that are not fully on board and languish below their historic median results. Ranking the data over six-month growth rates improves the results somewhat and brings motor vehicles on board for a growth rate that is above its historic median.

**Signs of improvement**
Goods-based industry shows signs of picking up even in March as oil prices were rising and industry was facing greater challenges. The US industrial production report for April, similarly, shows acceleration across the board, even as the economy continued to deal with the difficulties of rising oil prices. Of course, the Canadian US economies are closely linked; we would expect the manufacturing sectors to be performing with some degree of synchronization. However, there's no reason to be complacent about the outlook. Oil prices have continued to rise, the challenge to consumers is strong and across all countries. In the US special tax cuts enacted last year, which went into effect earlier this year, have helped to deliver extra money to consumers that have helped them deal with the oil price shock. But these were funds that were supposed to help stimulate the economy to higher growth and were planned by the President to help him with midterm elections coming later in the year. The US economy still has to deal with those realities with sharply divided political reality as well.

**Outlook**
The US acrimony with Canada has taken a back burner for a while. And as that has happened the Canadian economy has come back to life. However, Canada still has some problems with inflation although it also has a broader inflation target to accommodate some flexibility. And the prospect for more inflation because of global oil prices continues to hang in the balance. The results for March are encouraging but certainly not definitive. Canada has mounted a nice recovery after a period of difficulty earlier in the year but it's still hard to say what comes next.



260515e1.jpg

Canada

Canadian Industry Perks Up

Andrew Cates

**A Tug of War Between AI Hope and Geopolitical Shock**
The latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey highlights a growing divergence between economies benefiting from AI-driven optimism and those more exposed to the inflationary consequences of renewed geopolitical instability. Taiwan stands out as the clearest AI beneficiary, with growth forecasts revised sharply higher while inflation expectations have risen only modestly, reflecting surging semiconductor demand and continued investment in global technology supply chains. China also remains relatively resilient, supported by ongoing AI-related capital spending and stronger technology sectors. By contrast, the euro area and UK have seen much larger upward revisions to inflation forecasts alongside weaker or declining growth expectations, underscoring their greater vulnerability to the recent Middle East shock and higher energy costs. Korea sits somewhere in between: benefiting from the AI hardware cycle but still exposed to trade and energy headwinds. Overall, the chart illustrates the increasingly important push-and-pull shaping the global outlook: AI optimism and productivity hopes on one side, and geopolitical fragmentation, energy insecurity and supply-side inflation pressures on the other.

260513Z1.jpg

**Forecasters See Contained Pass-Through**
Against this backdrop, our latest Blue Chip special question sought to gauge whether economists believe the recent rise in energy prices will remain largely contained — or whether it risks spilling more meaningfully into underlying global inflation dynamics. The results suggest forecasters have become somewhat less concerned about a broad and persistent inflationary impulse since April. A larger share of respondents in the May survey now expect only a “limited and temporary” pass-through into core inflation, while the proportion anticipating “moderate and persistent” effects has declined noticeably. Very few panelists expect significant second-round effects, implying that most still believe inflation expectations and wage-setting behaviour remain relatively well anchored. In part, this reflects confidence in central bank credibility and the view that softer global demand conditions will constrain firms’ pricing power. Yet the persistence of a sizeable minority still expecting moderate pass-through underscores the uncomfortable tension facing policymakers. 

260513Z2.jpg

**Energy Reawakens as a US Inflation Driver**
While survey respondents generally expect only limited pass-through from higher energy prices into broader inflation, the latest US CPI data provide a reminder that the process may already be underway at the margin. April’s CPI report showed core inflation coming in slightly firmer than expected, suggesting underlying price pressures remain more persistent than many policymakers had hoped. The decomposition of CPI inflation highlights that services continue to dominate overall inflation dynamics, reflecting still-elevated wage and labour-intensive price pressures across the economy. However, the more notable recent development has been the renewed contribution from energy prices, which had previously acted as a disinflationary force through much of 2025. Food inflation has also remained comparatively steady, while non-energy goods prices continue to exert only modest upward pressure despite ongoing tariff and supply-chain concerns. Taken together, the data reinforce the idea that the US economy is not facing a classic demand collapse, but rather a more uncomfortable supply-side environment in which geopolitical energy shocks risk colliding with still-resilient domestic demand, AI-related investment spending and sticky service-sector inflation.

260513Z3.jpg

**AI: The Powerful Counterweight to Geopolitical Headwinds**
If rising energy prices and geopolitical instability represent one major force shaping the current macroeconomic outlook, the extraordinary surge in AI-related investment represents the other. The latest data from Our World in Data show global private investment in AI accelerating sharply again in 2025, reaching close to $300 billion — more than double the level seen just two years earlier. The United States continues to dominate the global AI landscape, accounting for the overwhelming majority of private investment spending, while China and Europe remain considerably smaller contributors despite continued growth. The scale and speed of the 2025 increase is particularly striking given the broader backdrop of elevated policy uncertainty, trade fragmentation and concerns about slowing global productivity growth. In effect, the global economy is now being pulled in two competing directions: on one side, geopolitical tensions, supply-chain fragilities and more recent energy shocks are weighing on confidence and raising supply-side costs; on the other, AI enthusiasm is driving an enormous wave of capital expenditure, infrastructure build-out and technology-related demand. This helps explain why growth expectations — particularly in the US and parts of Asia — have remained comparatively resilient despite an increasingly uncertain global environment.

260513Z4.jpg

**Industrial Winners and Losers in a Fragmenting Global Economy**
The divergence in industrial performance across advanced economies has become increasingly striking. Taiwan has emerged as one of the clearest beneficiaries of the global AI boom, with industrial production surging as semiconductor demand, data-centre investment and advanced electronics exports continue to accelerate. Denmark has also significantly outperformed, though for very different reasons, with the extraordinary global success of its pharmaceutical sector — particularly weight-loss and diabetes drugs — driving a powerful expansion in manufacturing output. By contrast, the UK and Germany have experienced a far weaker industrial recovery. In both cases, elevated energy costs and greater dependence on imported energy have weighed heavily on industrial competitiveness since the post-pandemic energy shock. Germany’s large manufacturing sector has been particularly exposed to higher natural gas prices and weaker external demand, while the UK has continued to struggle with a combination of high energy costs, weak productivity growth and subdued business investment. The chart highlights an increasingly important feature of the global economy: countries exposed to powerful structural growth themes such as AI or pharmaceuticals are pulling away from those still burdened by energy dependence and deteriorating industrial competitiveness.

260513Z5.jpg

**China’s Pulse Is Picking Up Again**
China’s economic backdrop has shown clearer signs of improvement in recent months, with both the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and the Yicai High Frequency Economic Activity Index moving higher. The rebound suggests that incoming data have begun consistently outperforming expectations after a prolonged period of disappointment. Part of the recent improvement likely reflects the cumulative effects of policy easing, including targeted fiscal support, infrastructure spending and further efforts to stabilise the property sector. Export demand has also remained more resilient than many expected, helped in part by the continued strength of global technology and AI-related supply chains. At the same time, improving domestic mobility and energy usage indicators point to firmer underlying activity momentum. The Yicai index itself is designed to provide a near real-time pulse of the Chinese economy using a basket of high-frequency indicators including subway usage, air pollution, coal consumption, freight activity, unemployment and bankruptcy trends. While China still faces significant structural headwinds — including weak household confidence, property-sector fragilities and deflationary pressures — the recent pickup suggests that growth momentum may be stabilising at a time when several other major economies are becoming more vulnerable to geopolitical and energy-related shocks.

260513Z6.jpg

The global economy is still caught between two powerful and competing forces. On one side, the AI investment boom continues to support growth, industrial activity and equity markets, particularly in the US and parts of Asia. On the other, renewed Middle East tensions and higher energy prices are adding to inflation risks and broader policy uncertainty. The latest Blue Chip survey reflects this divide clearly: growth expectations have generally held up best in economies tied to AI-related investment and technology supply chains, while inflation forecasts have risen more sharply in more energy-exposed economies such as the UK and euro area (chart 1). Forecasters still largely expect only limited pass-through from higher energy prices into core inflation, although recent US CPI data suggest underlying price pressures remain somewhat sticky (charts 2 and 3). At the same time, the extraordinary continued surge in global AI investment — now approaching $300 billion annually — highlights the sheer scale of capital being deployed into semiconductors, data centres and digital infrastructure, particularly in the United States (chart 4). The divergence in industrial production trends also reinforces the growing gap between economies benefiting from structural growth drivers — such as Taiwan’s semiconductor sector and Denmark’s pharmaceutical industry — and those struggling with higher energy costs and weaker competitiveness, notably Germany and the UK (chart 5). Meanwhile, improving Chinese activity indicators suggest policy support and stronger technology demand may finally be helping to stabilise growth (chart 6). Overall, the world economy remains resilient, but increasingly uneven, with AI-related investment continuing to offset — though not eliminate — the drag from geopolitical fragmentation and rising energy insecurity.

Charts of the Week: The Tug of War

260514v5.jpg

260514w5.jpg

Total retail sales rose a solid 0.5% m/m (4.9% y/y) in April on top of a slightly downwardly revised 1.6% monthly jump in March (previously 1.7%), according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 05% m/m gain. Excluding autos, other sales increased 0.7% m/m (6.3% y/y) in April following an unrevised 1.9% monthly jump in March. Expectations were for a 0.6% monthly increase. The strong performance in March and the additional solid gain in April put the April level up 7.8% at an annual rate from the Q1 average, providing a very solid start for Q2.

As expected, the continued rise in retail gasoline prices boosted gasoline sales further in April. Gasoline sales increased 2.8% m/m in April following a 13.7% m/m surge in March and accounted for more than 40% of the April increase in total sales. However, sales were solid even without gasoline sales. Total sales excluding gasoline rose 0.3% m/m in April versus a 0.7% monthly gain in March. Sales excluding both autos and gasoline increased 0.5% m/m in April following a 0.7% m/m rise in March.

The control group of sales (total sales excluding food services, autos, gasoline and building materials that the BEA uses to construct PCE in the national accounts) posted another solid increase in March, rising 0.5% m/m in April following an upwardly revised 0.8% m/m increase in March (previously (0.7% m/m). The solid performances of the control group sales in March and April provide a strong start to Q2. April control-group sales are 5.4% at an annual rate above the Q1 average, in line with the 5.7% annualized increase in Q1. Consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient notwithstanding the recent hit to disposable income from the marked increase in energy prices.

Sales across major sectors were varied in April. Consumers clearly spent more on necessities, owing largely to higher prices. Food sales increased 0.8% m/m in April on top of a 1.0% m/m rise in March. And as already noted, gasoline sales posted another outsized monthly increase. By contrast, department store sales slumped 3.2% m/m, clothing sales fell 1.5% m/m, auto sales declined 0.4% m/m and furniture sales fell 2.0% m/m. More encouragingly, sales of nonstore retailers rose 1.1% m/m, their fourth consecutive solid monthly gain. And sales at restaurants increased 0.6% m/m in April, their third consecutive monthly rise. Analysts frequently use restaurant sales as a barometer of consumer attitudes, believing that consumers would not eat out regularly if they were under serious financial stress.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.


260514x5.jpg

260514y5.jpg

- Total sales increase 0.5% m/m in April after a 1.6% monthly jump in March.
- Gasoline sales rose 2.8% m/m in April on top of a 13.7% surge in March.
- Auto sales fell 0.4% m/m after a 0.6% m/m rise in March.
- Excluding auto and gasoline sales, remaining sales increased by a solid 0.5% m/m in April versus a 0.7% m/m rise in March.
- Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.5% m/m in April and are 5.4% annualized above the Q1 average, providing a good start to Q2.


U.S. Retail Sales Slowed in April But Remained Solid

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

PAYE RTI Employment & Earnings, LFS Claims (Apr), UK Finance Debit & Credit Card Spending (Feb), Flash Productivity (Q1)

International Trade, Synthetic Indicators (Mar)

Building Permits, Prices of Dwellings (Mar)

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (May)