Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

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Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

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Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

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Timely Updates

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Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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The PCE chain price index increased 0.3% in September after rising 0.3% in August. The y/y gain rose to 2.8 from 2.7% in August and was the largest gain since April 2024, up from 2.3% growth in April of this year. The PCE price index excluding food and energy prices rose 0.2% for the third straight month. The y/y rise eased to 2.8% from 2.9%.

Goods prices increased 0.5% (1.4% y/y) after a 0.1% rise but durable goods eased 0.1% (+0.9% y/y) for the third straight month. Home furnishings prices rose 0.4% (2.2% y/y) but recreational goods & vehicle prices fell 0.4% (-1.8% y/y). Nondurable goods prices strengthened 0.7% (1.7% y/y) Gasoline & other energy goods prices jumped 3.6% (-0.2% y/y), the largest increase since December of last year, while clothing prices surged 0.8% (-0.2% y/y). Prices of services increased 0.2% (3.4% y/y) after rising 0.3% for two months. Transportation services prices strengthened 1.0% (4.2% y/y) while housing & utility costs edged 0.1% higher, 4.0% y/y. Prices of services excluding energy & healthcare, increased 0.2% (3.6% y/y) in September.

Personal consumption expenditures in September improved 0.3% (5.0% y/y) after increasing 0.5% for three consecutive months. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. After adjusting for inflation, PCE held steady, the weakest increase in four months. Real PCE growth of 2.1% y/y compared to a 3.6% rise during 2024.

Real spending on durable goods fell 0.6% (+2.1% y/y) during September as real sales of motor vehicles declined 1.1% (-0.6% y/y) after falling 1.6% in August. Home furnishings sales, adjusted for inflation, declined 0.3% (+0.3% y/y) while real sales of recreational & vehicles fell 0.5% (+6.7% y/y). Constant dollar sales of nondurable goods eased 0.3% (+2.1% y/y) in September as apparel spending fell 1.5% (+6.6% y/y). Real consumption of services gained 0.2% (2.2% y/y) for the fourth month in the last five. Spending on housing & utilities rose 0.3% (1.0% y/y) while real outlays on recreation services declined 0.4% (+1.4% y/y).

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Personal income increased an expected 0.4% (5.2% y/y) in September, the same as in August. Growth of wages & salaries also was steady at 0.4% (5.0% y/y). Proprietors income eased 0.1% (+3.7% y/y) but asset earnings rose 0.6% (2.6% y/y). Disposable personal income increased 0.3% (4.8% y/y) in September following two months of 0.4% increase. Real disposable income rose 0.1% (1.9% y/y) for a second straight month. The saving rate held steady m/m at 4.7%, below the 5.7% high this past April. Personal saving rose 2.1% y/y.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total PCE price index drifts up even as core price gain dips.
- Real PCE gain slips as goods outlays fall.
- Personal income gain steadies.

U.S. PCE Core Price Index Gain Eases; Personal Spending Growth Slows & Income Steadies in September

Robert Brusca

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Growth in the euro area came in a little bit stronger in the third quarter as growth is up 1.1% compared to 0.6% in the second quarter and 2.3% in the first quarter. These are annualized quarter-to-quarter results. Ranked on growth rate data back to 1997, the EMU 1.4% GDP growth rate has a 41.3 percentile standing which puts it below its median growth rate for this period. 

Among the countries in the table that includes 16 European countries, Japan, as well as the European Monetary Union aggregate, only 6 countries have growth rates above their medians in 2025-Q3. One of them, Denmark, is not a monetary union member; it has a standing in its 90.2 percentile. Ireland has a rank standing in its 83.7 percentile. Portugal has a growth standing in its 66.3 percentile. Greece's growth rate is in its 60.9 percentile. Cyprus’ standing is in its 57.6 percentile. The median growth rate among reporting members has year-over-year growth at 2.0% and that's a 41.3 percentile standing.

Quarterly growth in the third quarter decelerates in four of the reporting monetary union countries. This is down from 9 decelerations in the second quarter. Growth also decelerates in the third quarter in six countries when measured on a year-over-year basis. Monetary union growth decelerates year-over-year as well.

There's not a particular pattern to the median growth rate, which was at 2.2% on the fourth quarter of 2024, slipped to 1.7% in 2025-Q1 and then to 1.6% in in 2025-Q2, and it has picked up to a 2% pace in the third quarter of 2025. The monetary union overall growth rate which is weighted for the size of the underlying economies, shows 1.3% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, stepping up to 1.6% in the first quarter, remaining at 1.6% in the second quarter, and then slipping slightly to 1.4% in the third quarter of 2025.

Growth is favored in the smaller economies in the European Monetary Union as the four largest economies have a year-on-year growth rate that is below the growth rate for the rest of the European Monetary Union in each of the last four quarters. The year-over-year growth rate for the third quarter shows the largest four EMU economies are growing at a 0.9% year-over-year pace compared with 2.7% pace for the rest of the monetary union. This strength is also reflected in the growth standings with the four largest economies having a growth rate standing at their 37th percentile, compared to a 57.6 percentile for the rest of the monetary union.

We have no comparison for the United States right now because U.S. GDP has been delayed by the U.S. shutdown dynamics. But both Japan and Switzerland are logging relatively weak growth rates in the third quarter of 2025, with Japan at 1.1% year-over-year and Switzerland at 0.5%. Japan's growth rate is still a 50th percentile ranking while Switzerland's growth rate is a 13.6 percentile ranking against its historic results.

The growth rate for the monetary union is revised lightly higher than it was; still, it shows growth slowing quarter-to-quarter on an annualized basis. Only three of the monetary union reporting countries in the third quarter show quarterly growth actually falling; German growth is dead flat at zero. The overall monetary union growth rate is still quite moderate on a quarterly as well as annual basis. However, growth is still in train; inflation remains moderate. Growth in the monetary union is generally supported more by the smaller countries than by the large countries.

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Europe

GDP in EMU Is Firmer Quarter-to-Quarter, But Slowing

Andrew Cates

**The global policy rate consensus**
Blue Chip forecasters continue to mark down the path for global policy rates over the next twelve months, but with a striking divergence at the core. The US remains the standout on the downside: expectations for the Fed have shifted decisively toward deeper easing amid cooling inflation readings, softer labour-market signals, and a meaningful tightening in financial conditions as equity markets have turned choppier and long-term yields have retreated. Japan sits firmly at the opposite end of the spectrum. Markets now anticipate further incremental tightening by the Bank of Japan as it continues its slow-motion normalisation—supported by firmer wage settlements, persistent services inflation, and a strategic push to lock in a durable exit from the deflationary era. Elsewhere, the modest expected cuts for the euro area and Australia and the absence of any change from Canada largely reflect the fact that much of the heavy lifting has already been done. Policy rates in these economies are no longer meaningfully restrictive, and in some cases are arguably drifting toward neutral or even slightly loose territory. The result is a global policy map that is gently tilting toward accommodation, but with one unmistakable fault line: a widening Fed–BoJ divergence that looks set to define the macro narrative over the coming year.

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**The US labour market**
US labour-market conditions continue to soften at the margin, and this week’s latest ADP data offer an even more critical guide than usual given the US government’s recent shutdown and the absence of official payroll numbers. November’s ADP report specifically showed a 32,000 decline in private employment—far weaker than expectations, which were centred on a modest 5,000 gain. Both ADP’s three-month change in private employment and the BLS series have eased markedly from last year’s highs, underscoring a loss of hiring momentum across private industries. In the near term—and with the official BLS data for November unavailable until December 16th—the ADP numbers will carry disproportionate weight in shaping market expectations and the narrative around the Fed’s next steps.

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**Inflation in the euro area**
The euro area’s disinflation trend has continued to progress, but the latest data underline why the ECB remains cautious about endorsing a more aggressive easing path. Composite output price pressures from the PMI survey have settled into a narrow band consistent with only modest disinflation, while the flash HICP estimate, though dramatically lower than its 2022 peak, appears to be levelling off rather than pushing decisively back toward target. This combination of sticky underlying inflation and still-fragile growth keeps the ECB in a delicate position: policy is no longer restrictive, but not clearly loose either, and the Governing Council has been careful to stress that further meaningful rate cuts will require clearer evidence that price dynamics are on a sustained downward trajectory. For now, the data suggest a eurozone economy that has stabilised, but with inflation still just firm enough to prevent the ECB from moving more decisively.

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**Japan’s JGB yields**
Japan’s upward drift in government bond yields has become one of the more consequential global market developments in recent weeks, and this chart helps explain why. While nominal JGB yields have been rising, the underlying driver is increasingly real yields rather than inflation expectations. That shift reflects a meaningful pickup in private non-residential investment, which has gained momentum alongside stronger corporate balance sheets, tighter labour markets, and an improving outlook for productivity-enhancing capex. The new prime minister has reinforced this narrative by signalling policy continuity on structural reforms and a renewed focus on incentivising domestic investment, helping to anchor expectations that the recent rise in real rates is part of a more durable normalisation process. For global capital markets, the implications are significant: higher real JGB yields increase Japan’s relative appeal as a destination for domestic savings, potentially reducing outward capital flows and exerting upward pressure on global real rates at the margin. After years in which Japan exported excess savings to the rest of the world, even a modest reversal of that pattern is being watched closely.

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**UK government debt**
The spread between 10-year UK gilts and US Treasuries has narrowed notably in recent weeks, unwinding part of the sharp premium that had built up through the summer and early autumn. This spread effectively represents the additional compensation investors demand for holding UK sovereign debt, and its further modest decline since the UK Budget last week suggests some easing of the political and fiscal risk premia that had accumulated earlier in the year. However, rather than reflecting improved confidence or clearer fiscal signalling, this move arguably appears driven more by the Budget’s explicit fiscal tightening and the associated downgrade to the UK’s growth prospects. Markets have interpreted the consolidation package—mainly through higher taxes—as dampening future demand, reducing inflationary pressure at the margin, and thereby lowering the expected path for UK gilt yields relative to Treasuries.

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**South Korea’s trade**
South Korea’s semiconductor export rebound continues to highlight how strongly the AI investment boom is feeding into global manufacturing. Chip exports, long a bellwether for the broader tech cycle, have swung firmly back into positive territory, historically a sign of improving global factory activity. The global manufacturing PMI has edged higher alongside this upswing, but it is worth noting that the PMI is still only pointing to very mediocre growth overall. In that context, the resurgence of semiconductor trade stands out even more clearly as one of the few genuine tailwinds in an otherwise subdued industrial landscape. For export-oriented Asian economies in particular, the AI-driven demand for advanced processors and memory chips is providing an important counterweight to broader global softness.

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Global financial markets have been navigating a more unsettled backdrop in recent weeks, with choppier risk sentiment and shifting rate expectations reshaping the macro narrative. US assets have been particularly sensitive to signs of cooling labour-market momentum and the temporary loss of official payroll data during the government shutdown, while rising real yields in Japan and renewed fiscal tightening in the UK have added further cross-currents. Against this backdrop, Blue Chip forecasts point to a world edging gradually toward easier monetary policy, but with a striking divergence between a more dovish Fed and a still-normalising Bank of Japan (chart 1). The softening in US private payroll growth, captured by the ADP data, reinforces the case for Fed easing at a time when official data are unavailable (chart 2). In the euro area, sticky underlying inflation could leave the ECB wary of further meaningful cuts (Chart 3). Japan’s climb in real JGB yields, underpinned by stronger capex and supportive policy signals, continues to reverberate through global rate markets (chart 4). In the UK, the gilt–Treasury spread has widened over the year but narrowed slightly post-Budget as investors priced the growth-dampening effects of fiscal tightening (chart 5). And in the global goods sector, while the manufacturing PMI still points to only mediocre growth, the revival in South Korean semiconductor exports underscores the extent to which AI-related demand remains one of the few clear bright spots in an otherwise subdued industrial landscape (chart 6).

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/2j2VZSImVD31Psz5shi4Sy?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Diverging Paths, Converging Risks

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New orders to all manufacturing industries rose 0.2% (3.6% y/y) during September after increasing 1.3% in August. A 0.8% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

As in the advance report, new orders for durable goods rose 0.5% (7.2% y/y) in September after a 3.0% August jump, which followed a 2.8% July decline. A 0.4% rise (15.9% y/y) in transportation sector orders followed an 8.0% August surge, which was led by commercial aircraft orders. Motor vehicle & parts orders rose 0.2% (4.3% y/y) after falling 0.3% in August. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.2% (1.2% y/y) after a 0.1% decline. Machinery orders eased slightly (+5.9% y/y) in September after a 2.1% rise. Total orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.5% (3.3% y/y) following a 1.1% decline while electrical equipment & appliance orders strengthened 1.7% (6.8% y/y), the strongest of six consecutive increases.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, eased 0.1% both m/m and y/y. Food product shipments rose 0.1% (0.5% y/y) after easing 0.1%. Textile product shipments rose 0.3% (1.9% y/y) following a 0.2% gain. Apparel shipments held steady (-0.4% y/y) after rising 0.6% in August. Paper product shipments rose 0.3% both m/m and y/y. Chemical shipments held steady (3.1% y/y) after a 0.2% gain while shipments from petroleum refineries fell 1.1% (-6.8% y/y) following a 2.2% decline.

Shipments of all manufacturing industries were little changed in September (+2.3% y/y) after falling 0.3% in August. Shipments of durable goods edged 0.1% higher (4.8% y/y) after easing 0.1%. Machinery shipments increased 1.3% (4.5% y/y) after easing 0.1% while computer & electronic product shipments were off 0.1% (+4.9% y/y) following a 0.2% dip. Electronic equipment, appliances & components shipments rose 0.6% (4.3% y/y) after rising 0.1%.

Unfilled durable goods orders increased 0.7% (8.2% y/y) in September for the second month in a row. Excluding a 1.0% increase in transportation, unfilled orders increased a steady 0.2% (0.9% y/y). Unfilled machinery orders edged 0.1% higher (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. Unfilled orders for computers & electronic products eased 0.1% (-0.9% y/y) for the second straight month. Unfilled orders for electrical equipment & appliances rose 0.6% (2.1% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Unfilled orders for furniture rose 0.2% (1.3% y/y) after rising 0.4% in August.

Total factory sector inventories slipped 0.1% (+1.4% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Excluding transportation, inventories rose 0.1% (1.5% y/y) also for a second month. Durable goods inventories slipped 0.1% (+1.9% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Machinery inventories rose 0.4% (3.2% y/y) after easing 0.1%. Computer & electronic product inventories rose 0.2% (1.0% y/y) after gaining 0.1%. Electrical equipment & appliance inventories rose 0.2% (2.8% y/y), the same as in August.  

Nondurable goods inventories eased 0.1% (+0.5% y/y) after holding steady in August. Food product inventories eased 0.2% (-1.6% y/y) for a second month. Textile product inventories rose 0.3% (3.2% y/y) following a 0.4% rise.  Apparel inventories rose 0.7% (-0.8% y/y) after rising 0.3%. Paper product inventories rose 0.3% (3.2% y/y) following a 0.4% gain. Chemical product inventories eased 0.1% (+1.1% y/y) after holding steady in August while petroleum inventories held steady (-0.5% y/y) after rising 0.3%.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Shipments are steady.
- Order backlogs post firm increase.
- Both durable & nondurable goods inventories slip.

U.S. Factory Orders Unexpectedly Increase in September

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 191,000 (-15.1% y/y) during the week of November 29 after easing to 218,000 during the prior week, revised from 216,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 214,750 from 224,250. It was the lowest level since January 2025, down from a high of 245,750 in the second week of June.

Federal government employees initially filed 1,125 (NSA) jobless insurance claims in the week ended November 22 after 1,724 in the prior week. These figures are increased from 588 at the end of September.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance eased to 1.939 million (+3.6% y/y) in the week ended November 22 from 1.943 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average fell to 1.945 million from 1.951 million. It was the lowest level in five weeks.

Federal government employees continuing benefits fell to 17,851 in the week ended November 15 from 33,085 in the prior week. These figures are increased from 8,678 at the end of September.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ended November 15, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.26%) and Washington (2.26%), California (2.01%), Massachusetts (1.98%), the District of Columbia (1.76%) and Connecticut (1.75%). The lowest were in South Dakota (0.32%), Florida (0.33%), Louisiana (0.42%), Nebraska (0.46%) and Virginia (0.48%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.65%), Illinois (1.53%), Pennsylvania (1.45%), and Texas (1.12%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- Decline in initial claims at lowest level since January.
- Continuing claims edge lower; jobless rate steadies.
- State unemployment rates vary.

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall Sharply in Latest Week

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Economy in Brief

U.S. PCE Core Price Index Gain Eases; Personal Spending Growth Slows & Income Steadies in September

GDP in EMU Is Firmer Quarter-to-Quarter, But Slowing

Charts of the Week: Diverging Paths, Converging Risks

U.S. Factory Orders Unexpectedly Increase in September

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall Sharply in Latest Week