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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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DLXVG3

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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Stata

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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

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Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 1.0% during the four weeks ended November 21, 2025 after rising 0.9% in the prior four-week period. The index increased 1.9% y/y last week following a 1.5% y/y gain in the second week of November.

**Textile** group prices increased 2.4% during the last four weeks, about the same as they did in both of the two prior four-week periods, and they strengthened 3.4% y/y. The cost of burlap surged 23.2% in the last four weeks while rising a sizable 49.6% over the last year. Cotton prices, however, rose a modest 1.0% in four weeks but declined 5.9% y/y.

**Metals** sector prices increased 1.7% (10.4% y/y) in the last four weeks after a 2.7% rise in the prior four week-period. Tin prices rose 4.9% (28.3% y/y) in four weeks. Lead prices strengthened 3.4% (3.0% y/y) and the cost of steel scrap rose 1.9% (-0.8% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of copper scrap increased 1.4% (20.3% y/y). Moving lower, the cost of aluminum eased 0.5% (+7.0% y/y) and zinc prices fell 0.6% (+8.0% y/y) in four weeks.

**Crude oil & benzene** costs rose 2.4% (-7.6% y/y) in the last four weeks, following a 0.9% rise in the previous period. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 2.3% in four weeks to $59.83 per barrel but declined 13.2% y/y. The price was increased from a low of $58.47 in the third week of last month. The price of the petro-chemical benzene rose 8.4% (-12.5% y/y) in four weeks.

**Excluding crude oil**, the industrial commodity price index increased 0.9% (2.9% y/y) over the last four weeks, after rising 0.8% during the prior four-week period.

**Miscellaneous** sector prices declined 1.7% in the last four weeks and fell 1.8% y/y, after falling 2.0% in the prior period. Framing lumber prices weakened 10.3% (-10.1% y/y). The cost of tallow, used for frying & baking, declined 2.8% (+12.3% y/y) in four weeks. Offsetting this weakness, natural rubber prices rose 5.9% in four weeks, but declined 4.4% y/y.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

Navigating Unpredictable Terrain by John C. Williams, President & Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available [here](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil251121).
   




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- Textile and metals prices continue to strengthen.
- Crude oil prices rise.
- Framing lumber costs decline again.


FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Rise Further in Latest Four Weeks

Robert Brusca

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The month-to-month changes in the S&P PMI indices are mixed in November with slightly more of them weakening than strengthening but still quite a significant mix and the European monetary union the composite index weakened, dragged lower by a weakening in manufacturing while the services index improved. The services in EMU improved for three months in a row but manufacturing deteriorated for two months in a row before sinking in November.

Germany and France separately report early from the monetary union. Germany shows weakening across the board for all three sectors while France shows strengthening in the composite and in services only showing a weakening in manufacturing.

The United Kingdom shows weakening the composite and in services with strengthening in manufacturing. That pattern is repeated in Australia.

Japan shows improvement in all three sectors and shows consecutive improvement only in the composite index.

India shows weakening in the composite and in manufacturing with only services strengthening in November after all three sectors weakened in October.

The US, after seeing all three sectors weaken in September, then strengthen in October, shows the stronger composite and stronger services in November juxtaposed to a weaker manufacturing reading.

The monthly data create a great deal of turbulence and create a picture that's hard to pin down in terms of trends and generalities. However, the three-month, six-month, and 12-month average data provide a much more solid and stronger framework. That sequence is not only stronger but it's much more solid in terms of the message that it sends. The period averages which are calculated only on completed data (so these are data through October) show only three-sectors (out of 24) weakening that's France for the composite, and France for services, and Japan for manufacturing; the other six countries or areas all show sector readings improve for the three-month average compared to the six-month average.  Six-month averages compared to 12-month averages show only a weakening in Australia for manufacturing. 12-month averages compared to 12-months ago show weakening in only 8 separate sectors involving five different regions. Year-over-year comparisons show the UK is weaker in all sectors, Japan is weaker for the composite and for services, the European Monetary Union, Germany, and France are weaker on their 12-month average only for the services sector.

**Percentile standing**
The queue percentile standings for the eight countries in the table reveal readings below the 50% mark for only three of 24 sectors those 3 sectors are the UK composite, UK services, and manufacturing in Japan. All the rest have standings above the 50% mark which puts them above their historic medians on data back to January of 2021.

The standing data are substantially improved from what we're seeing just a few months ago there is a general improvement in the global economy as is clear from the average data although the monthly data are still quite touch and go. 

**Summing up**
The November report is disappointing because prior to its release there had been relatively solid trends in place. It's now going to be important to keep an eye on the monthly data to see if this improving trend remains or if we've entered a period where signals are going to get mixed again. There's some evidence of some scattered weaknesses, particularly in the UK economy, that's performing poorly, there, the central bank is likely to deliver another rate reduction soon. The situation in the European monetary union is much more in flux. The US is also in ‘no-man’s-land’ on jobs and inflation, but in the United States the difference is that GDP growth has been strong and appears to continue to be strong on the back of investment an artificial intelligence and in data centers. The US continues to report out weak job growth, essentially because of special factors related to structural demographic conditions, a closed border, deportations, legacy effects from a closed government, (which have now been reversed) and what may be ongoing weakness caused by a transition from firms that are phasing in their artificial intelligence investment. Every economy has a story. The US story may stave off rate cuts through year-end.



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S&P PMI Gauges are Mixed but Improving 

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 119,000 in September after falling 4,000 in August, revised from a 22,000 increase and rising 72,000 during July, revised from 79,000. Expectations had been for a 45,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average change in payrolls of 62,000 compared to 18,000 in August, but stood far below its high of 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in September after increasing 0.4% in August, revised from 0.3% and an unrevised 0.3% in July. Earnings growth of 3.8% y/y equals that in August. It has been trending lower from its 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, edged up to 4.4% from 4.3% in August and 4.2% in July. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 8.0% after rising to 8.1% in August. It was 6.6% in April 2023.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment in September increased 97,000 after rising 18,000 in August. Construction sector employment strengthened 19,000 after falling for three consecutive months. Elsewhere employment fell. Factory sector jobs declined 6,000, off for the fifth straight month. Durable goods employment weakened 4,000 in September following a 21,000 decline. Nondurables employment fell 2,000 after a 6,000 August increase. The number of mining & logging industry jobs declined 3,000, the fifth consecutive monthly shortfall.



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Private service-sector employment increased 87,000 during September after improving 50,000 in August. Employment increases occurred in just three service-sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 59,000 in September, following a 43,000 August increase. The number of leisure & hospitality jobs rose 47,000 after a 32,000 gain while financial activities employment improved 5,000 after falling 15,000 in August. Elsewhere, employment was weak. The number of professional & business services jobs fell 20,000, down for the fifth straight month as temporary help employment declined 15,900, also off for the fifth month in a row. Trade, transportation & utilities employment eased 2,000, off for the seventh consecutive month. Information services employment held steady after falling for three consecutive months. 

Offsetting some of this weakness, government sector payrolls rose 22,000 in September and reversed the 22,000 August drop. State government payrolls increased 16,000 after falling in each of the prior four months. Local government hiring rose 9,000 following a 14,000 August increase. Continuing to decline, federal government employment weakened 3,000 in September and has fallen in all but one month this year. 

Private-sector average hourly earnings improved 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in September after rising 0.4% in August, revised from 0.3%. Earnings in the goods-producing sector increased 0.3% in September after two straight 0.4% gains, although the 4.0% y/y increase is below the 5.4% high early last year. In construction, earnings rose 0.3% (3.8% y/y) following a 0.6% rise, while factory sector earnings improved 0.4% (4.2% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. In the private service sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in September after a 0.4% gain. Information earnings improved 0.3% (5.2% y/y) after rising 0.7% in August. Professional & business services pay increased 0.3% (4.8% y/y) after four straight months of 0.5% increase while leisure & hospitality earnings rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y) after rising 0.4%. Private education & health services earnings eased 0.2% (+2.5% y/y) following a 0.1% gain. 

The length of the average workweek held at 34.2 hours in September after falling from 34.3 hours in July. The workweek in the goods-producing sector fell to 39.7 hours from 39.8 hours in August. The construction sector average workweek was 39.0 hours for the third straight month while the factory sector workweek eased to 39.9 hours, the weakest since October of last year. The average workweek in the private service sector was 33.2 hours for the third straight month. Information sector hours surged to 37.5, the most in five years. Financial activities hours held at 37.6. Private education & health services hours steadied at 32.7 in August.



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In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September after rising to 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July. A 251,000 rise in employment lagged the 288,000 August gain. Labor force growth picked up to 470,000 in September from 436,000 in August. It was the highest jobless rate since October 2021, up from a 3.4% low in April 2023. 

The labor force participation rate rose to 62.4% in September from 62.3%, remaining well below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers jumped to 36.3%, a five-month high. For workers aged 20-24, the rate rose to 71.1% after plunging to a four-year low of 70.2%. For workers aged 25-54, the participation rate held at 83.7% after increasing from 83.4% in July. For individuals 55 and over, the rate held steady at 38.1% but remained near a 20-year low of 38.0% in June.

The employment/population ratio for all workers edged up to 59.7% in September. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic. For men, the rate slipped to 64.8% from 65.0% in August and for women, the rate increased to 54.8% after slipping to 54.5% in July.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.



- Hiring improves broadly.
- Construction, private services & government jobs rise, but factory employment declines.
- Earnings improvement is steady y/y, but slows m/m.
- Unemployment rate moves higher as job growth lags labor force gain.


U.S. Payroll Employment is Unexpectedly Firm in September; Earnings Rise Steadily, but Jobless Rate Edges Up

Michael J. Moran

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Sales of existing homes rose 1.2% in October, marking the third increase in the past four months and leaving a net gain of 4.3% over this span. Although activity has advanced in the past few months, sales remain low by historical standards. They dramatically trail the robust activity that unfolded in response to the low interest rate environment during the pandemic, and they lag noticeably behind the level of sales before Covid.

Interest rates seem to explain both the recent mild stirring in home sales and the still-low level of activity relative to historic norms. An easing in mortgage rates from approximately 7% in the early months of the year to 6.25% more recently undoubtedly gave a boost to the housing market. However, mortgage rates are still approximately 1.4 percentage points above the high in 2018 and almost 2.6 percentage points above the low in 2019, easily enough to keep many potential homebuyers on the sidelines.

The National Association of Realtors, the source of data on existing home sales, cited a lack of inventory for the slow pace of sales when activity started to soften in 2022. That seems to be less of a problem now. The number of homes on the market has recently climbed to slightly more than 1.5 million, up from a range of 0.85 to 1.3 million from 2021 through much of 2024. When measured relative to the pace of sales (so-called months’ supply) the current level of 4.5 months is comfortable by historical standards. (Months’ supply is the time required to clear housing inventory at the current sales pace.)

The subdued pace of demand has led to cooling in price appreciation. The median price of existing homes is still increasing, but at a slow pace. The latest year-over-year increase of 2.9% pales in comparison to the double-digit increases seen during the low interest rate environment of 2020-22 and trails the increase of 4.5% last year and the average of 4.7% in 2018-19.



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-Sales rose for the third time in the past four months…
-…but activity remains low by historical standards


Existing Home Sales: A (Faint) Pulse

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After a seven-week hiatus because of the government shutdown, the Department of Labor this week resumed the publication of data on claims for unemployment insurance. The newly available figures for initial claims showed essentially no change in the comfortable underlying trend. Continued claims (i.e. the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits) took a small step higher and added to an upward drift that began in the spring. Although continued claims have drifted higher, they are not at an alarming level relative to historical standards.

Initial claims totaled 220,000 in the week ended November 15, a reading that is comfortably within the range of the past three years and low by historical norms. Indeed, the latest reading and the average of 228,000 for the year to date is close to the pre-pandemic average of 219,000 in 2018 and 2019, when the labor market was viewed as strong. The range of observations from this year might strike some observers as wide, but initial claims carry a strong random element, and fluctuation this year were within the normal range of volatility. The standard deviation so far this year has totaled 11, essentially identical to results in 2018 and 2019 and a bit lighter than the average in the prior two years.

Steady trends in initial claims seem out of step with announcements of layoffs by major corporations in recent weeks and with slow net job growth in recent months (average payroll growth of 39,000 in the past five months). Announced layoffs by corporations often are implemented gradually, and thus the layoffs would affect claims with a lag. Soft payroll figures are perhaps reflective of cautious hiring by businesses rather than a jump in separations.

A reluctance to hire is evident in the upward drift in continued claims for unemployment insurance. The strong recovery after the pandemic pushed this measure to the low end of its historical range in 2022. The increase in 2023 and 2024 was not especially troubling, as the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits was still comfortable by historical standards. The upward drift since the spring could be viewed as a shift in the tone of the labor market, but the rate of change and the level are not suggestive of marked weakening. The latest reading of 1.974 million exceeds the average of 1.718 during the strong labor market of 2018-19, but it is still in the low end of the historical range and far below results seen during recessions. The measure has reached levels of approximately 4.0 million in most past recessions and it exceeded 6.5 million in the depth of the Great Recession in 2009.


- Initial claims remain range bound at a low level
- Continued clams are drifting upward


Unemployment Claims: Modest Changes

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