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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

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Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

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Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

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Haver partners with Clear Future Consultants to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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Sales of existing homes fell 4.3% (-3.7% y/y) during March to 4.19 (SAAR) million from an unrevised 4.38 million in February. January sales also were unrevised at 4.0 million. Sales remained increased from the low of 3.85 million in October 2023. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected March sales of 4.13 million units. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed in earlier months.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) improved 2.5% (4.8% y/y) to $393,500 after rising to $383,800 in February. Prices remained 4.9% below the June 2022 peak of $413,800. The median price of an existing single-family home in March improved 2.4% (4.7% y/y) to $397,200 after rising 1.3% in February. The median price for condos & co-ops surged 4.2% (5.8%) to $357,400 after rising 1.0% in February.

Single-family home sales fell 4.3% (-2.8% y/y) last month to 3.80 million units after rising 10.3% February. Sales remained 35.0% below their high of 5.85 million in October 2020. Condo and co-op sales declined 4.9% (-11.4% y/y) to 390,000 after rising 2.5% in February. Sales have declined 47.3% since the January 2021 high of 740,000.

Sales declined throughout most of the country last month. Sales in the West fell 8.2% (-3.7% y/y) to 780,000 after rising 16.4% in February. Sales in the Midwest weakened 1.9% (-1.0% y/y) to 1.01 million last month after rising 8.4% in February. Sales in the South declined 5.9% (-5.0% y/y) in March to 1.90 million after rising 9.8% in February. Sales in the Northeast rose 4.2% (-3.8% y/y) to 500,000 after holding steady for three straight months.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 4.7% (14.4% y/y) to 1.1 million in March after rising 5.0% in February. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) rose to 3.2 months from 2.9 months in February. The record low in supply of 1.6 months was reached in January, 2022. These figures date back to January 1999.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales retreat from twelve-month high.
- Home prices rebound to seven-month high.
- Sales decline in much of country.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline in March

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported in its April survey of manufacturing activity that the Current Activity Diffusion Index jumped to 15.5 this month from 3.2 in March and 5.2 in February. An index reading of 0.9 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Philly Fed survey responses were collected from April 8 to April 15.

The ISM-Adjusted Composite Index, calculated by Haver Analytics from the survey results, improved to 49.8 this month from 48.0 in March. It was the highest level since August 2022, but remaining below 50, it still suggests a net contraction in activity. It compared to a March 2023 low of 39.6.

Changes in the individual series were mixed this month. New orders surged to 12.2 from 5.4 in March. An improved 32.5% of respondents reported an increase in new orders while a lessened 20.3% reported a decline. The shipments index rose to 19.1 from 11.4, as a higher 36.5% reported increased shipments and a steady 17.4% reported declines. The delivery time reading rose to -9.4 from -16.7 as 10.0% reported faster delivery speeds, while 19.4% reported slower speeds.

Working lower, the unfilled orders measure eased to 0.8 in April from 1.0 in March. A lessened 13.6% reported an increase in order backlogs while 12.8% reported a decline. The inventories reading dropped to -8.9 from 4.4, negative for the sixth month in the last seven.

Job market conditions deteriorated this month as indicated by an employment reading which fell to -10.7 from -9.6 in March. Six percent of respondents reported more hiring while 16.4% reported less. Also weakening, the average workweek figure declined to -18.7 from -0.2.

The index of prices paid surged this month to 23.0 after a March decline to 3.7. This reflected 25.9% of respondents reporting increased prices and 2.8% reporting a decline. The prices received index improved to 5.5 from 4.6 and remained up from a low of -2.7 in May of last year. A steady 11.6% of respondents reported price increases and a lessened 6.2% reported declines.

Expectations for business conditions in the next six months deteriorated slightly with the April reading of 34.3 down from 38.6 in April. It remained up, however, from -4.0 in January. Expected shipments & new orders eased but employment expectations rose to the highest level in nine months. The expected workweek reading surged to the highest level since October 2021. Expectations for prices paid also strengthened to the highest level since June 2022. The prices received index eased, however, after strengthening in April.

The diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The Philadelphia Fed data can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Composite index moves to highest level in two years as new orders & shipments strengthen.
- Prices paid measure jumps; prices received increases as well.
- Expectations ease slightly but remain positive.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Surges in April

Carol Stone, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance were steady at 212,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ended April 13, with the earlier week revised marginally from 211,000 initially reported. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected the latest week at 215,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 214,500 in the April 13 week, unchanged from the week before. These latest amounts extend a narrow range for initial claims of 187,000 to 261,000 that has prevailed since the middle of 2021.

Insured unemployment, also known as continued weeks claimed, was 1.812 million in the week ended April 6, up slightly from 1.810 million the prior week. The earlier week was revised down from 1.817 million reported before. As with initial claims, these continuing claims have hovered in a narrow range for an extended period; they have run from 1.728 million to 1.829 million since May 2023.

The insured unemployment rate, that is, the amount of insured unemployment as a percentage of covered employment, is yet again 1.2% in the April 6 week. It has been at that amount continually since May 11, 2023.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims maintain tight range for almost 2 years.
- Continuing claims still fairly steady since May 2023.
- Insured unemployment rate holds at 1.2%, also since May 2023.

U.S. Jobless Claims Steady at a Moderate 212,000 in April 13 Week

Robert Brusca

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Registrations for cars in Europe for March fell by 8.8% month-to-month after falling by 1% in February. January, however, had been a strong month for registrations in Europe. The sequential trends are mixed and do not show a clear way forward. The 12-month change in sales/registrations falls 4.7%. Over six months registrations fall harder at an 11.9% annual rate, but then over three months registrations gain at a 7% annual rate. These data are prone to volatility. To adjust for that, I execute the same calculations on three-month average data to smooth out the volatility and let the trend shine through. Unfortunately, this procedure still does not produce a clearer picture of trend.

Chart 1, executed on year-over-year growth rates, shows registrations gradually losing momentum among reporting countries. Sequential growth rates across countries finds Germany and Spain with accelerating sales/registrations. France and Itay with fairly clear trends showing decelerating sales. Meanwhile, the U.K. trend shows confusion with no clear pattern emerging.

Looking very broadly, all reporting countries show registrations lower in March everywhere except for France, in 2024 compared to January 2020 before Covid struck. France is the lone exception that shows registrations in March higher by just 2.2% than they were over four years ago. That is not exactly a stunning success.

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Europe has been struggling. Weakness in vehicle sales is not news. After Covid, vehicle registrations dropped sharply then recovered but dropped again in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In early 2022 registrations bottomed out and rebounded into 2023, but by later in 2023 the rebound had run its course and trends turned flat and since have decayed.

The ECB is set to provide some help if it can follow through. Markets expect an ECB rate cut in June of this year. But U.S. and U.K. experiences might provide some caution or counterpoint as inflation has kicked up its heels in the U.S. and put the Fed’s well-telegraphed plan to ease on the back burner. In the U.K., inflation has simply slowed its progress and seems to be moving sideways.

Global economic conditions have been disrupted and under pressure dating back to the Great Recession. That recovery was drawn out and slow with unemployment rates falling continuously in recovery but slowly in the recession aftermath. Then Covid struck and created a new disruption that since has been magnified by the Ukraine invasion, Hamas’ attack on Irael, Israel’s response to ferret out Hamas, and now Iraq’s attack on Israel has given way to the re-emergence of an active axis of evil with Iran, China and North Korea providing support and arms to Russia in its aggression toward Ukraine. It is not clear when the global economy will ever be the same as these shocks and alliances disrupt global activity and drive wedges between countries that used to trade freely. The global economy is in a very disrupted and dangerous state of play.

Vehicle Registrations Losing Momentum in Europe

Andrew Cates

**The IMF’s global economic outlook**
One of the most notable themes that emerged from the IMF’s latest economic outlook this week is the resilience of the world economy in recent months. This resilience has led to significant upward revisions to its GDP outlook for several large economies compared to the projections made last October (see chart 1). The most notable upgrades were made to the US and to several large emerging market economies, including India and China. These were partially offset, however, by some small downgrades to the outlook for Europe and Japan. The factors driving this global outperformance were diverse but mostly revolve around loose fiscal policy, big drawdowns in household savings, and lower inflation, fostered, in turn, by supply-side improvements.

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**Geopolitical risk and oil**
The extent to which these forecasts are now at risk will hinge on several factors but increasing geopolitical instability in the Middle East is clearly one of them. As chart 2 below indicates, a generic indicator of global geopolitical risk has spiked sharply higher over the past few days, largely thanks to the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran. The most important channel through which this could generate economic instability is higher oil prices. But heightened risk aversion in the Middle East, and more broadly among global investors, could also hamper economic activity.

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**Global oil supply**
Global oil prices have, so far, remained well-behaved against this backdrop. However, there is no assurance that this stability will continue if geopolitical risks escalate. Iran plays a crucial role in the global oil market due to its significant oil reserves and production capacity. More broadly, the Middle East holds nearly half of the world's proven oil reserves (see chart 3) and accounted for 33 percent of global oil production in 2022. Therefore, any disruptions or changes in the region's oil production or exports could significantly affect the global oil market, influencing both supply and prices worldwide.

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**Oil prices, inflation and monetary policy**
While oil prices have remained relatively stable in recent days, they have generally been on the rise since the beginning of the year. This increase has been a major factor in slowing down or even reversing disinflationary trends in many countries. Additionally, it has led to reduced expectations for looser monetary policies, especially in the US. It is certainly no coincidence, against that backdrop, that oil prices appear to have enjoyed a close lead relationship with US Treasury yields over the past few months as well (see chart 4).

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**US financial conditions**
A major challenge for central banks in adjusting monetary policy is the feedback loops between economic activity, financial conditions, and monetary policy itself. For instance, earlier expectations of a more lenient monetary policy contributed to looser financial conditions in the US. This, in turn, may have provided greater support to the US economy than the Federal Reserve had anticipated (see chart 5). This indicates that while many metrics suggest that US monetary policy is stringent, indicators of financial conditions present a more nuanced view.

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**China’s economy**
Finally, and on a more positive note, this week’s dataflow for China has offered a more upbeat take on recent economic developments. For instance, GDP in Q1 2024 grew by 5.3% y/y, up from 5.2% in the Q4 2023, and significantly above expectations which were centered on a growth rate of 4.8%. A closer examination shows that net trade significantly boosted economic growth over the past three months, thanks to robust growth in export volumes during January and February. Whether this strength will be sustained, however, remains to be seen not least against the more risky global economy backdrop discussed above.

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Investors have grown increasingly cautious about the economic outlook in recent days, partly thanks to heightened geopolitical instability in the Middle East. That Fed Chair Powell has also expressed greater concern about the US inflation outlook has not helped, not least as higher oil prices (and the resilience of the US economy) had already been unsettling investors’ inflation expectations. The timing of this week’s publication of a more optimistic economic outlook from the IMF (see chart 1) also appears a little unfortunate. The extent to which those forecasts may be jeopardized will arguably now hinge on the interplay between geopolitical instability, oil prices, inflation and monetary policy (see charts 2, 3, 4 and 5). It is noteworthy, nevertheless, and against these considerations, that China’s economy has also been punching more positively according to some additional data that were published this week (see chart 6).

Charts of the Week: Geopolitics, Oil, the IMF and China

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Latest Releases

Economy in Brief

U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline in March

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Surges in April

U.S. Jobless Claims Steady at a Moderate 212,000 in April 13 Week

Vehicle Registrations Losing Momentum in Europe

Charts of the Week: Geopolitics, Oil, the IMF and China