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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

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Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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The PCE chain price index edged 0.1% higher in June after holding steady in May and rising 0.3% for three consecutive months. The 2.5% y/y rise is a three-year low for the measure and compares to its 7.1% y/y peak in June 2022. The price index excluding food and energy improved 0.2% last month after a 0.1% May gain, and also following three consecutive 0.3% increases. The steady 2.6% y/y increase remained the weakest since March 2021 and below the 5.6% peak in February 2022. Durable goods prices were unchanged (-2.9% y/y) after declining 0.8% in May and 0.2% in April. They were helped by a 0.6% decline (-3.6% y/y) in motor vehicle prices. Nondurable goods prices fell 0.3% (+1.2% y/y) after a 0.2% May slip, both held back by 0.3% declines (+0.2% y/y) in clothing prices. Services prices rose 0.2% (3.9% y/y) for the second consecutive month, the gain held back by the third consecutive decline (+2.8% y/y) in transportation costs. Services prices excluding energy & healthcare increased 0.2% (4.2% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. Food prices edged 0.1% higher in June (1.4% y/y) for a second consecutive month. Energy goods & services prices weakened 2.1% (+2.0% y/y) for the second consecutive month.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.3% (5.2% y/y) during June following a 0.4% May rise, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. When adjusted for price changes, PCE rose 0.2% last month (2.6% y/y) after increasing 0.4% during May.

Real spending on durable goods fell 0.2% last month (+2.9% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in May. Real spending on motor vehicles weakened 2.6% (-2.8% y/y) and reversed the prior month’s increase. Real outlays on home furnishings & appliances strengthened 1.1% (3.6% y/y) after improving 1.2% in May while real spending on recreational goods & vehicles strengthened 1.3% (7.1% y/y) and added to the 2.9% surge May. Spending on other durable goods eased 0.1% (+6.9% y/y) after strengthening 1.4% in May.

Real spending on nondurable goods rose 0.5% (2.0% y/y) last month after edging 0.1% higher in May. Real clothing and footwear purchases jumped 1.1% (3.8% y/y), roughly repeating its May gain. These increases followed three straight months of decline. Real food & beverage purchases rose 0.3% (1.0% y/y) after easing slightly in May. Real outlays on gasoline & other energy products increased 1.1% (-0.9% y/y) after little change during the prior two months. Real spending on other nondurable goods rose 0.4% (3.0% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in May.

Real spending on services improved 0.2% (2.8% y/y) in June for the second consecutive month. Real spending on housing & utilities rose 0.3% (1.7% y/y) after a 0.1% rise while real healthcare spending edged 0.1% higher (5.4% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Real spending on food services & accommodations eased 0.1% (+2.2% y/y) and reversed the May gain while real spending on financial services & insurance rose 0.4% last month (1.0% y/y) after easing 0.1% in May. Real spending on transportation services increased 0.2% in June (3.4% y/y) after rising 1.9% in May.

Personal income rose 0.2% (4.5% y/y) during June after increasing 0.4% in May, revised from 0.5%. A 0.4% gain was expected. Wages & salaries rose 0.3% (4.7% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. Rental income declined 0.7% (+6.0% y/y) for the third consecutive month while proprietors’ income was little-changed (+3.5% y/y) for the fourth consecutive month. Income from assets improved 0.1% (3.3% y/y) after two straight 0.4% increases and current transfer receipts rose 0.3% (5.1% y/y) for the second straight month. Government social benefits rose 0.3% (5.1% y/y) after rising 0.5% in May.

Disposable personal income increased 0.2% (3.6% y/y) in June following a 0.4% May rise. After adjusting for price changes, disposable income improved 0.1% (1.0% y/y) last month after rising 0.3% in May.

The personal saving rate fell to 3.4% last month from 3.5% in May, revised from 3.9%. The rate was down from a May 2023 high of 5.3%. Personal saving fell 3.0% (-28.3% y/y) after falling 1.2% in May.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price index held down by continuing weakness in goods prices.
- Real spending increases modestly m/m; trend growth is slightly higher.
- Spendable income growth after inflation remains stable & low.

U.S. PCE Price Index Growth Remains Modest in June; Spending Growth Steadies

Robert Brusca

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The INSEE manufacturing survey and services survey for France both took a considerable step lower in July in the wake of some turbulent French elections and on the doorstep of France hosting the Summer Olympics. As I write this, there are reports of acts of sabotage on French railway lines intended to disrupt the Olympics. None of those actions is reflected in the data presented here today. But they may emerge in subsequent reports. The monthly drops reported here are the seventh largest for services back to 2000 and for manufacturing the ninth largest month-to-month drop.

Industry climate in France fell to 95.5 in July from 98.9 in June. Climate has a ranking at its 16.7 percentile which means it has been lower less than 17% of the time.

**Manufacturing**
Manufacturing production expectations fell sharply to a reading of -18 in July from a reading of -11.6 in June. The standing for the reading is in its 19.8 percentile, implying that expectations have been lower less than 20% of the time.

The recent trend of production also slipped to -5.4 in July from -2 in June; survey respondents reported that their own industries personal likely trend slipped to -4.9 in July from +1.8 in June. The overall recent trend assessment for industry has a 15-percentile standing, while the personal likely trend standing has a 7.3 percentile standing; both are still extremely low readings.

Overall orders and demand slipped in July to -19.9 from-18.4 in June. That series has a standing at its 35.6 percentile. Foreign orders and demand slipped by more, dropping to -18.5 in July from a reading of -8.6 in June; that series has a 27.1 percentile standing.

Inventory levels rose in July to 8.8 from 8.4 in June and have a 44.5 percentile standing, closer to their historic median; the median occurs at a reading of 50%.

Prices show some lift in July with the own likely price trend rising to +7.0 from +3.7 in June and logging a 62.8 percentile standing, above its historic median. The manufacturing price level indicator rose to +6.9 in July from +2.9 in June, logging or below median 42-percentile standing.

The far-right hand column shows that most of these survey entries are lower than they were in January 2020 before COVID struck. Inventories are slight exception, and prices are an exception as well, showing more pressure now than there had been prior to COVID.

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**The Services Sector**
The services survey that is summarized in the chart shows a sharp drop in climate to 95.2 in July from 101 in June; the climate ranking is at its 29.6 percentile for the services sector. As is the case for manufacturing, the outlook in July slipped to -10 from -5 in June and has a 32 percentile standing. Observed sales improved in services to -1 from -4 but have a 32-percentile rank standing. Expected sales over the next three months, however, turn negative posting a -3 reading, compared to +1 in June, for 29.6 percentile standing. The services sector is seeing some price pressures as well although the observed prices of the last three months and the expected prices over the next three months both showed a slight step down in July compared to June. Both, however, still display rankings of the responses that are high.  The ‘observed trend’ is at an 82.2 percentile standing, and the ‘expected trend’ has an 80.6 percentile standing. Employment expectations in the services sector, which are important since this is the main job sector for the economy, remained weak, improving by just one point in assessing conditions over the last three months, rising from -8 to -7. Expectations fell sharply to -10 in July from +1 in June; the percentile standing for the observed result is a 14.6 percentile standing while the expected job market condition has only a 9.1 percentile standing. Both are quite weak.

France’s manufacturing and service sectors both are showing weakness in July in the wake of election shocks that have occurred in France. At this point, it's not clear if we are looking at reactions to political changes or if the economic changes are already occurring on the ground. France may have been expecting a boost to activity from the Olympics, but instead these disruptions - reported as sabotage- on French railway lines, may impede the progress of the Olympic Games and could damp what could otherwise be stimulus from hosting them. France remains in a difficult spot, with economic growth not doing very well and waiting like the rest of Europe to see what the European Central Bank will do in the months ahead with monetary policy as a new set of elected representatives gets ready to set policy under President Macron.

France

France: The Olympics Come and Growth Goes?

Andrew Cates

**Financial markets are still dancing with economic data**
Financial markets have continued to dance with the incoming economic data over the last few months. Chart 1 below specifically suggests that equity investors have responded favourably to positive global growth surprises and negative inflation surprises, while negative growth and higher inflation have dampened their enthusiasm. Given this pattern, the bullish momentum seen in equity markets during the first half of 2024 seems increasingly at odds with the recent slew of disappointing global growth data.

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**Households have started to rebuild savings buffers**
Digging into the numbers reveals that incoming data for labour market activity have been disappointing expectations much more frequently in recent weeks, most notably in the US. Unemployment rates, for instance, have been climbing, job vacancies have been falling and employment growth has been slowing. And this, in turn, has coincided with a greater desire by households in several economies to rebuild their savings buffers (see chart 2).

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**Credit impulses are negative**
It is arguably no coincidence that at the same time as this, evidence has been accumulating to suggest that higher interest rates and less accommodative fiscal policy settings are taking a toll. Haver’s calculations for the impulse that’s being provided to the world economy from credit growth to the private sector, for example, has now been waning since the end of 2022 and negative in the 4 quarters to Q1 2024 (see chart 3).

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**Still-high service sector inflation**
There are, nevertheless, no guarantees that this restraint will now generate a more coordinated response from the world’s central banks to ease monetary policy in the immediate weeks ahead. Service sector inflation in many major economies is still worryingly high for example (see chart 4). And notwithstanding looser labour markets, wage inflation is still pretty high as well.

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**Firming global shipping costs**
There are also now heightened concerns that goods price inflation could start climbing more forcibly. Measured with respect to the Drewry Container Index, global shipping rates have nearly doubled since late April. The main reason concerns some further disruption in the Red Sea, which has stretched global shipping capacity, with more shipping needed to service European and Asian routes. As chart 5 below suggests, this could now generate more upward pressure on producer price inflation in the period ahead.

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**Roaring semiconductor trade in South Korea**
Global traded goods price inflation has already begun to stir, however, partly thanks to stronger global demand for some goods in some economies. As this final chart suggests, this week’s data from South Korea revealed still-firm demand for semiconductors, and firmer pricing power in that sector as well.

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Politics has continued to dominate the headlines in recent days and will doubtless remain a big focus in the immediate weeks ahead. In the background, however, incoming data have suggested the outlook for the world economy has been darkening (chart 1) probably because more restrictive policy settings are now more forcibly weighing on aggregate demand (charts 2 and 3). However, still-sticky service sector inflation (chart 4) could postpone any moves to (further) ease the stance of monetary policy not least if traded goods price inflation now begins to stir (chart 5). This week’s evidence suggesting robust demand for semiconductors has continued to support global trade also serves as a reminder that there are some tailwinds behind the world economy at present that are countering policy-related headwinds (chart 6).

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/0y6FnVcYRgcpz0kd80zp1L?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: It’s the Economy, Stupid!

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Real GDP grew 2.8% (SAAR) in Q2’24 in the second quarter of 2024. The gain followed unrevised increases of 1.4% in Q1’24 and 3.4% in Q4’23. A 1.9% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Real GDP grew 3.1% y/y, roughly the same as during the prior three quarters.

The contributions to GDP growth from business inventories and international trade produced offsetting influences on growth last quarter. The change in inventories added 0.82 percentage point to growth last quarter following a 0.42 subtraction in Q1 and a 0.47 subtraction in Q4. Offsetting the latest influence, net exports subtracted 0.72 percentage point from growth after subtracting 0.65 percentage point in Q1. Exports of goods & services grew 2.0% (3.5% y/y) following a 1.6% rise in Q1. Imports jumped 6.9% (4.9% y/y) after rising 6.1% in Q1.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.7% (3.0% y/y) in Q2 following a 2.4% Q1 gain. Government sector spending increased 3.1% (3.8% y/y) after rising 1.8%. Federal government spending growth paced the gain with a 3.9% rise (3.2% y/y) after a 0.2% easing in Q1. National defense investment grew 5.2% (3.2% y/y) after falling 0.9%. State & local government spending improved 2.6% (4.1% y/y) after a 3.0% rise.

Private sector final demand growth held steady last quarter at 2.6% (2.9% y/y). Personal consumption expenditures rose 2.3% (2.5% y/y) after increasing 1.5% in Q1, adding 1.6 percentage point to Q2 growth. Durable goods spending posted a 4.7% rise (2.4% y/y) last quarter and recovered the 4.4% decline in Q1. Motor vehicle expenditures rose 4.8% (-3.3% y/y) after declining 14.0%. Furniture & appliance buying rose 7.0% (3.6% y/y) after a 0.3% gain in Q1. Recreational goods & vehicle purchases increased 4.8% (6.5% y/y) after falling 2.4% in Q1. Spending on other durable goods rose 0.5% (6.8% y/y) after rising 10.8% in Q1.

Nondurable goods outlays increased 1.4% (1.7% y/y) after falling 1.1% in the first quarter. Apparel outlays declined 3.0% (+2.5% y/y) after a 3.4% increase while food & beverage spending rose 1.8% (1.1% y/y) following a 0.2% slip. Outlays on gasoline & other energy products increased 6.1% (-0.8% y/y) after declining 11.5% in Q1. Spending on other nondurable goods rose 1.1% (2.9% y/y) after no change in the first quarter.

Spending on services increased 2.2% last quarter (2.8% y/y) after a 3.3% gain. Housing & utilities outlays rose 1.5% (1.4% y/y) after a 1.0% Q1 improvement. Health care purchases increased 4.0% (5.4% y/y) following a 7.2% gain. Transportation services outlays growth of 3.9% (2.3% y/y) compared to 0.3% in the previous quarter. Spending at restaurants & on hotel accommodations gained 1.0% (2.7% y/y) after falling 3.3% while growth in recreation outlays jumped 4.1% (2.4% y/y) after a 2.8% Q1 gain.

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Business fixed investment increased 5.2% (3.7% y/y) last quarter following a 4.4% Q1 rise. It accounted for 0.7 percentage point of GDP growth. Spending on nonresidential structures declined 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after a 3.4% Q1 rise. Equipment investment strengthened 11.6% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.6% in Q1. Transportation equipment spending surged 49.8% (-1.4% y/y) after an 18.1% decline. Information processing investment strengthened 10.2% (5.1% y/y) after a 6.8% rise, while industrial equipment outlays fell 3.2% (+0.8% y/y) after strengthening 12.8% in Q1. Investment in intellectual property products increased 4.5% (4.6% y/y) after a 7.7% Q1 rise.

Residential structures investment declined 1.4% (+5.8% y/y) in Q2 following three consecutive quarters of strong increase.

The GDP chain price index rose 2.3% (2.6% y/y) last quarter after a 3.1% Q1 gain. The rise compared to an expected 2.6%. The PCE price index increased 2.6% both q/q and y/y, after a 3.4% rise in Q1. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 2.9% (2.7% y/y) after increasing 3.7%. The PCE goods price index rose 0.7% (-0.1% y/y) after falling in both of the prior two quarters while the services price index rose 3.6% (4.0% y/y) after a 5.4% rise. The PCE services price index less energy & housing rose 3.3% (3.5% y/y) after a 5.1% rise.

The business fixed investment price index rose 1.4% (1.5% y/y) following a 1.8% gain. The residential investment price index improved 3.1% (3.0% y/y) following no change. The government spending price index rose 1.8% (3.2% y/y) after rising 3.9% in the first quarter.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Growth doubles the Q1 increase.
- Inventories & government spending lead growth.
- Consumer spending & business investment gains improve.
- Price increase moderates.

U.S. GDP Growth Strengthens in Q2’24; Rise in Price Index Slows

Winnie Tapasanun

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New orders for durable goods unexpectedly fell 6.6% m/m (-10.3% y/y) in June after unrevised increases of 0.1% in May and 0.2% in April, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.6% m/m June rise. The June reading was the first m/m fall since January and the deepest since April 2020. Durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector grew 0.5% (1.2% y/y), the second m/m gain in three months, after a 0.1% May downtick. Durable goods orders excluding defense fell 7.0% (-11.3% y/y) in June after holding steady in May.

The sharp m/m fall in June durable goods orders was led by a 127.2% m/m plummet in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts following a 2.0% rebound in May. Orders for defense aircraft & parts fell 10.0% m/m after a 14.6% May gain. Orders excluding aircraft, however, rose 0.7% in June, the fifth m/m rise in six months, following a 0.2% decline in May.

Durable goods orders for transportation generally plunged 20.5% (-30.1% y/y) in June, the second m/m decline in three months and the deepest since April 2020, following a 0.6% increase in May. Orders for motor vehicles & parts dipped 0.1% (+3.6% y/y) in June after holding steady in May and six straight m/m rises. Orders for primary metals edged down 0.1% (-0.8% y/y) following a 0.3% May decline and three consecutive m/m increases. To the upside, the following durable goods orders rose m/m in June: machinery (1.6%; 1.8% y/y), electrical equipment, appliances & components (1.3%; 0.7% y/y), computers & electronic products (0.8%; 2.4% y/y), and fabricated metal products (0.2%; 2.3% y/y). Meanwhile, orders for all other durable goods were virtually unchanged (+0.6% y/y) in June after a 0.1% downtick in May and April.

Capital goods orders dropped 18.4% (-29.1% y/y) in June after holding steading in May. Nondefense capital goods orders slid 22.4% (-34.6% y/y), the third straight m/m slide and the deepest since March 2020, after a 0.4% May decline. Core capital goods orders (i.e., nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft) rebounded 1.0% (0.3% y/y), up for the second month in three, after a 0.9% May decrease. Defense capital goods orders rose 6.1% (13.3% y/y) on top of a 2.1% May increase and a 14.3% April jump. Notably, core capital goods shipments (core capex shipments), a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts, increased a marginal 0.1% (-0.2% y/y) in June following a 0.7% drop in May and a 0.3% rebound in April.

Shipments of all manufactured goods rose 0.6% (2.6% y/y) in June, the fourth m/m rise in five months, after a 0.7% decrease in May. Durable goods shipments increased 1.2% (1.9% y/y), up for the fourth month in five, after a 0.4% May decline. Nondurable goods shipments slipped 0.1% (+3.3% y/y) following a 1.0% May drop and three straight m/m increases.

Unfilled orders of durable goods fell 1.3% (+4.7% y/y) in June, the first m/m fall since July 2020, reversing a 0.2% increase in May. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders ticked up 0.1% (-0.6% y/y) in June after no change in May and a string of declines during the January to April period.

Manufacturing inventories were essentially unchanged (+0.9% y/y) in June after increasing 0.1% in May and April. Durable goods inventories held steady (+1.3% y/y) after a 0.2% May rise. Nondurable goods inventories were virtually unchanged (0.3% y/y) in June following a string of modest increases from February to May.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- A sharp 6.6% m/m fall in June following four straight m/m rises.
- Nondefense aircraft orders plummet 127.2% m/m.
- Transportation orders plunge 20.5% m/m; excluding transportation, orders rise 0.5% m/m.
- Core capital goods shipments up only 0.1% m/m vs. a 0.7% May decline.
- Durable goods shipments up, unfilled orders down, and inventories unchanged.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Drop in June

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