Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with Clear Future Consultants to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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The General Business Conditions Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York jumped to 11.5 in September from -4.7 in August. It as the first positive number since November 2023. A reading of -4.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The percentage of respondents reporting an improvement in business conditions rose to 32.7% from 28.5% in August while the percentage reporting a decline in activity fell to 21.2% from 33.2% last month. The headline index reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity. The survey responses were collected between September 3 and September 10.

Haver Analytics calculates a composite index, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. That index rose to 52.0 in September from 47.2 in August. A level of 50 is the breakeven point between expansion and contraction.

The orders index rose to 9.4, its first positive reading in 12 months, from -7.9 in August. The shipments index jumped to 17.9, its highest reading since June 2023, from 0.3. The unfilled orders index rose to 2.1 from -7.4 in August and -11.2 in July. Delivery times shortened as the index improved to -1.1 from -3.2. Inventories jumped to a break-even level of zero from -10.6 in August.

Labor market conditions improved in September. The employment index of -5.7 compared to -6.7 in August, but was the eleventh consecutive month below zero. A lessened 7.1% of respondents reported increases in employment while a smaller 12.8% reported lower employment. The hours-worked index rebounded to 2.9 after falling to -17.8 in August.

Inflation pressures weakened this month. The prices paid index eased to 23.2 in September after falling to 23.4 in August from 26.5 in July. Thirty-one percent of respondents were paying higher input prices, a bit less than in August, while a steady 7.4% reported paying lower input prices. The prices received index also deteriorated to 7.4 from 8.5 in August. Fifteen percent of respondents reported an increase in prices, up from 13.8% in August, while 7.4% reported a decrease in prices, up from 5.3% in August.

Firms grew more optimistic about the outlook. The index for future business conditions of 30.6 this month compared to 22.9 in August and was the highest level since January 2022. The outlook for new orders & shipments surged, but employment eased slightly after surging in August. The future prices paid index jumped to its highest level since February of last year but capital spending plans weakened sharply.

The headline index reflects the answer to only one question concerning general business conditions and is not calculated from the components. The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Index increases to two-year high.
- New orders & shipments lead increase as employment improves modestly.
- Prices paid & received readings ease.

U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Strengthens in September

Robert Brusca

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The European Monetary Union trade surplus moved lower in July. At €15.46 billion, it is down from €17.02 billion in June. The erosion was due to a larger deficit on nonmanufacturing trade as the manufacturing balance actually improved to €39.1 billion from €37.9 billion. However, on nonmanufacturing trade, the deficit swung to -€23.7 billion from -€20.9 billion.

The chart provides the hint that the move back to surplus may have passed its peak as there is a string of surpluses having swept up to higher levels and now engaged in the process of headed for lower levels.

The trend for exports shows overall exports slowing then declining steadily from a growth rate of 2.5% over 12 months to 0.6% over six months to -8.1% over three months. This transition is driven by the growth rates of manufacturing as well as nonmanufacturing exports; both of which transition from positive growth rates over 12 months to negative growth rates over three months.

On the import side, the patterns are inconsistent although they culminate in weakness over three months. Total imports fall 2.5% year-over-year, advance at an 11.4% annual rate over six months, and then decline at a 3.2% annual rate over three months. Manufacturing imports follow this same progression; however, for nonmanufacturers, growth is at 3.2% over 12 months, that expands to a 15% annual rate over six months, and then collapses to -3.4% over three months. Import trends are chaotic.

Turning to three European countries two of them the largest countries in the European Monetary Union, we find Germany has exports declining progressively and imports doing the same. Both German export and import flows are slowing consistently and declining with imports falling faster than exports. For France, exports are accelerating from 4.3% over 12 months to 5.3% at an annual rate over six months to nearly 12% at an annual rate over three months. French imports, in contrast, don't have a clear trend but they are declining on each of those horizons. The U.K. shows declines in exports and imports year-over-year that are relatively balanced and again declines over six months that are relatively balanced for the two flows. But over three months, U.K. exports advance at an 11.3% annual rate while imports are basically unchanged at a 0.1% annual rate.

Export trends for Finland, Portugal, and Belgium find cross trends, with Finland showing a decline in exports of 17.3% at an annual rate over three months. But Portugal shows exports accelerating from 12-months, to six-months, to three-months, culminating in a 45.9% annual rate pace over three months. Belgium shows an export decline over 12 months that gives way to increases over three months and six months but again without a clear trend.

The trends for the three-month growth rates are positive for the EMU aggregates and for the exports of Finland, Portugal, and Belgium. But trends are negative for exports as well as imports for Germany France and the U.K. Over 12 months, most of the calculations show declines in trade flows, underpinning again the notion that manufacturing has been weak in Europe. That weakness lends itself to weakness in both the exports and imports; European weakness in manufacturing naturally leads to knock-on weakness in trade. That is not surprising. It has been the strength in the services sector that has tended to keep growth alive, especially in Europe.

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Rate cuts by central banks are back in the picture despite somewhat mixed inflation news. This week the Federal Reserve is expected to join the rate cut club even though U.S. economic data are hardly as weak as in other countries. The Fed in the U.S. is preparing to cut rates in the quest to pull a rabbit out of its hat and create a soft landing. It's an interesting choice for the Federal Reserve to cut rates when economic conditions are not greatly calling for it and with inflation still over target for 40-plus months running. And gutsy to do it with a presidential election coming up in November. The Fed rate cut is sure to be controversial although with some people calling for rate cuts as large as 50 basis points and even 75 basis points, it seems one of the strategies is for the Fed to deliver a smaller rate reduction and to have that masquerade as temperance. The calls and forecasts of large cuts may take the attention away from the fact that the Fed actually is going to cut rates going into the election under marginally accommodating conditions.

Europe

EMU Trade Surplus Erodes

Tian Yong Woon

In this week's newsletter, we examine China and highlight growing economic concerns. Investors had already expressed scepticism about China’s growth prospects even before the recent data were released (Chart 1). But this scepticism has been further validated by the latest figures, which show ongoing – and often worse than expected - deterioration (Chart 2). However, there is a hint of optimism: China's exports surpassed expectations in August, although import figures were disappointing (Chart 3). Consumer price pressures are increasing, but not severely, while producer prices continue to decline (Chart 4). As for the labour market, youth unemployment remains in double digits, with a significant rise in July, but potentially due to seasonal factors (Chart 5). Lastly, investor sentiment remains cautious, as indicated by continued outflows from Chinese equities, falling stock prices, and a generally negative market mood (Chart 6).

**The China outlook**
China’s recovery remains uneven, with GDP growth slowing significantly to 4.7% y/y in Q2 versus 5.3% in Q1 (Chart 1). And pockets of instability persist. The property sector, for example, continues to struggle, with house prices having fallen more sharply in recent months despite numerous efforts by the authorities to address excess supply and stimulate demand. China continues to face external challenges as well, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector, among others. Major economies, including the EU and Canada, have recently followed the US in imposing tariffs on imports of China-made EVs. Against this backdrop, Blue Chip Economic Indicators (BCEI) panelists downgraded their outlook for China this month. They now forecast GDP growth of 4.7% for 2024 and 4.3% for 2025, down from respective projections of 4.8% and 4.4% last month. These adjustments suggest that China is now seen unlikely to achieve its 5% growth target for this year. 

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**China’s latest dataflow**
China’s latest economic data have been less than reassuring, as key indicators for August have both shown declines and fallen short of expectations. As illustrated in Chart 2, the growth rates for China’s industrial production and retail sales dropped more than anticipated, to 4.5% and 2.1% y/y, respectively, from 5.1% and 2.7% in July. Additionally, fixed asset investment growth eased to 3.4% ytd y/y, and the headline unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3%. In the property sector, house prices for both new and existing residential buildings have experienced even sharper y/y declines. Overall, August’s data reinforces the view that China’s economy is slowing, raising concerns about the feasibility of achieving the 5% growth target with only a few months remaining in the year.

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Next, we turn to the latest developments in China’s trade. In August, the trade balance unexpectedly widened as exports surged beyond expectations, while import growth slowed considerably (Chart 3). Notably, the increase in exports was driven by strong growth to regions like the EU, although growth to other markets, such as the US, was more subdued. This robust export performance occurred despite declining export prices and recent trade actions against China, including those related to EV imports. Conversely, import growth showed minimal change compared to a year ago, with significant slowdowns in imports from major trading partners, including the US, the EU, and ASEAN countries. While not entirely conclusive, the slowdown in China’s import growth could suggest weaker domestic demand, especially when considered alongside the recent underwhelming economic data.

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We move next to touch on latest developments in China's price dynamics. Consumer inflation in China has been gradually increasing, reaching 0.6% y/y in August (Chart 4). However, this rate remains low relative to inflation rates in other major economies, indicating very subdued price pressures in China. This persistent low inflation aligns with the broader narrative of weak domestic conditions, where insufficient demand fails to drive significant increases in prices. Moreover, China’s producer prices continue to decline, with decreases accelerating to 1.8% y/y in August. This deflationary trend in producer prices is likely contributing to the low inflation in traded goods and consumer prices. Falling producer prices not only impact the local market but also affect global economies that import from China, given its significant role as a major supplier. Historically, there has been a strong positive correlation between China’s producer price inflation and its export price inflation, with producer price inflation trends typically leading export price changes by a few months. 

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**Youth unemployment in China**
Delving deeper into China’s labour market situation, we focus on the segment that continues to draw significant concern from investors and economists: youth unemployment. This issue has been a persistent challenge in China, with the old measure of youth unemployment having surged to 21.3% before the publication of this statistic was halted after the June 2023 reading (Chart 5). Since then, China has introduced a new measure of youth unemployment, which excludes students, starting from December 2023. Although this new measure has reported rates significantly lower than those of the old measure, there was a notable spike to 17.1% in July this year, re-igniting prior concerns. It is worth noting that the old measure of youth unemployment typically showed a rising trend leading up to and peaking around July, suggesting that seasonality may be influencing the latest figures. Whether the July spike in the new measure reflects a deeper, underlying deterioration in the labour market for China's youth remains to be seen.

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**China’s portfolio flows**
Lastly, we touch on developments in China’s portfolio flows. Portfolio outflows have continued to affect Chinese equities in recent months, with approximately $3.4 billion in net selloffs recorded for the three months ending in July, according to IIF data (Chart 6). Contributing to this trend are concerns about the Chinese economy, including weak consumer sentiment, a struggling property market, and overall weak demand as reflected in recent growth readings. In contrast, China’s bond market has experienced strong portfolio inflows throughout the year, driven by low rate expectations, weak inflation readings, and anticipation of further rate cuts by authorities. However, recent efforts by Chinese authorities to curb excessive buying may have led to negative debt flows in July. Looking ahead, assessing the true extent of foreign investment flows into and out of Chinese equities may become more challenging. This is due to the authorities' decision to halt the publication of daily flow data effective August 18 this year.

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Asia

Economic Letter From Asia: Concerning China

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Import prices declined 0.3% (NSA, +0.8% y/y) during August after rising an unrevised 0.1% in August. Expectations had been for a 0.1% decline in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Export prices fell 0.7% both m/m and y/y. The previously reported 0.7% increase in July was revised to +0.5%. The Action Economic Forecast Survey had looked for export prices to ease 0.1% in August.

The August decline in import prices was led by a 3.0% weakening (-4.6% y/y) in fuel & lubricant prices which followed a 1.1% July increase. Excluding this decline, import prices edged 0.1% lower (+1.3% y/y) after a 0.1% July improvement. Foods, feeds & beverages prices eased 0.1% (+4.8% y/y) after strengthening 1.5% in July and 1.1% in June. Motor vehicle & parts prices held steady (+2.3% y/y) following a 0.4% gain. Nonauto consumer goods prices slipped 0.1% in August (+0.5% y/y) after falling 0.2% in both of the prior two months. Capital goods prices inched 0.1% higher (0.3% y/y) after holding steady in July.

The August weakening in export prices reflected 1.8% decline (-5.8% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages prices which came after falling 1.7% in July. Industrial supplies and materials fell 1.1% (-2.0% y/y), following a 1.8% rise. Capital goods prices slipped 0.2% (+1.4% y/y) after holding steady, while auto export prices improved 0.1% (4.0% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. Nonauto consumer goods prices rose 0.1% (-1.5% y/y) and reversed the July decline. Overall, agricultural export prices fell 2.0% (-6.9% y/y), the same as in July. Prices of nonagricultural exports declined 0.6% (-0.1% y/y) following a 0.8% rise in July.

The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Import price weakness is led by lower oil prices.
- Price declines of other imported goods are widespread.
- Export price decline reflects lower food prices.

U.S. Import and Export Prices Drop in August

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The National Association of Realtors' Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index (HAI) increased 1.8% (1.2% y/y) in July to 95.0 after falling 0.2% to 93.3 in June. The level of home affordability has plunged 46.9% from a peak of 179.0 in April 2020.

The rise in affordability reflected a 1.0% decline (+4.2% y/y) in the median price of an existing single-family home to $428,500. This followed five straight monthly increases to a record $432,900 in June. The price weakening accompanied a drop in the average mortgage rate to 6.93% from 7.00% in June. It remained up sharply from the December 2020 low of 2.73%. The declines lowered the principal & interest payment by 1.7% (+4.3% y/y) to $2,265. That was increased from the most recent low of $984 in February 2020. Monthly mortgage payments averaged 26.3% of income during July versus 26.8% in June. It remained up from a recent low of 14.0% in April 2020.

The decline in housing costs was accompanied by improvement in median family income which increased 0.1% in July (5.5% y/y) to a record $103,278 after rising 0.8% in June.

Housing affordability increased across the country in July. The affordability index rose 4.3% (-3.8% y/y) in the Northeast to 87.9. The index increased 2.5% (1.0% y/y) to 122.3 in the Midwest and it remained the most affordable region of the country to live. In the South, the index rose 1.0% (3.5% y/y) to 98.8 and in the West, where homes are the least affordable, the index rose 0.7% (2.7% y/y) to 69.1.

The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) equals 100 when a median-income borrower qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home. The HAI had exceeded 100 in each month since July 1990 and reached its all-time high of 213.3 in January 2013; since then, it fell below 100 for the first time in June 2022 (98.8).

Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver’s **REALTOR** database. Median home sales prices are also available in **USECON**. Higher frequency interest rate data are found in **SURVEYS**, **WEEKLY**, and **DAILY**.

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- Home prices slip & mortgage rates decline.
- Median income edges up.
- Affordability increases throughout the country.	

U.S. Housing Affordability Index Improves in July

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Latest Releases

Economy in Brief

U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Strengthens in September

EMU Trade Surplus Erodes

Economic Letter From Asia: Concerning China

U.S. Import and Export Prices Drop in August

U.S. Housing Affordability Index Improves in July