Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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DLXVG3

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Winnie Tapasanun

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Industrial production (IP) edged up a slightly less-than-expected 0.1% m/m in June, the fourth monthly gain in five months, following a 0.1% increase in May (unrevised) and a downwardly revised 0.8% rise in April (+0.9% previously), according to data from the Federal Reserve Board. A 0.2% m/m June increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate decelerated to 1.1% in June, the lowest since March, from 1.7% in May (0.7% in June 2025). The June IP index at 102.6 was 3.3% above a low of 99.3 in November 2024 and 3.4% above a low of 99.2 in January 2024. IP rose 1.0% q/q in Q2 2026 after a 0.3% q/q rebound in Q1 2026, rising at a 4.0% annualized rate following a 1.1% Q1’26 annualized pace.

By **industry groups**, manufacturing production was virtually unchanged m/m (+1.1% y/y) in June after increases of 0.1% in May (0.0% initially) and 0.7% in April (unrevised). Durable goods production dipped 0.1% (+3.2% y/y) in June, the first m/m easing since March, following a 1.0% rise in May. Within durables, most categories fell m/m in June, led by a 0.8% drop (-1.1% y/y) in wood products, followed by declines of 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) in machinery, 0.6% (+5.7% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 0.6% (+3.3% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.2% (+5.0% y/y) in aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, 0.2% (+2.1% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.2% (+1.9% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods. To the upside, the following durable goods categories rose m/m in June, including output rises of 0.7% (1.2% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts, 0.3% (-5.0% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.2% (1.5% y/y) in primary metals, and 0.1% (9.2% y/y) in computer & electronic products. Notably, aircraft & parts production climbed 0.3% (9.1% y/y), the fifth straight m/m rise, after a 1.0% May increase.

Nondurable goods production rose 0.2% (-1.1% y/y) in June, the fourth m/m gain in five months, following a 0.9% decrease in May. The June output rise was led by a 2.1% rebound (-0.9% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, followed by increases of 1.9% (2.1% y/y) in apparel & leather goods, 0.4% (-1.9% y/y) in printing & related support activities, 0.1% (-0.7% y/y) in food, beverages & tobacco, and 0.1% (0.7% y/y) in plastics & rubber products. To the downside, the following nondurable goods categories fell m/m in June, including output declines of 0.4% (-4.6% y/y) in paper, 0.3% (-4.7% y/y) in textiles & product mills, and 0.2% (-1.3% y/y) in chemicals.

Mining activity grew 0.4% (2.4% y/y) in June, the third successive m/m gain and the fourth in five months, after a 1.1% increase in May (+1.3% initially). Utilities output, up for the second time in three months, rose 0.4% (0.3% y/y) following a 0.7% May decline (-0.4% initially), reflecting a 0.9% rebound (1.3% y/y) in electric utilities output and a 3.3% decline (-6.7% y/y) in natural gas utilities output.

By **market groups**, consumer goods output rebounded 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) in June after a 0.6% decline in May, reflecting gains of 0.4% (-0.9% y/y) in durable consumer goods and 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods. Materials production inched up 0.1% (1.3% y/y), the fourth m/m increase in five months, after a 0.3% May rise. In contrast, business equipment output fell 0.4% (+5.4% y/y), the first m/m fall since March, following a 0.9% May gain. Construction supplies production slid 0.4% (+1.5% y/y), the second m/m decline in three months, after a 1.0% May increase.

In **special classifications**, factory output of selected high-tech industries rose 0.5% (11.0% y/y) in June on top of a 1.8% advance in May, marking the third consecutive m/m gain and the eighth in nine months. Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech industries held steady m/m (+0.8% y/y) in June after four straight m/m gains, while manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts dipped 0.1% (+0.8% y/y) for the second successive month.

Capacity utilization held at 76.1% for the third consecutive month in June (with May’s reading revised down from 76.2%). The Action Economics Forecast Survey forecasted 76.2%. The June reading was 3.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization slipped to 75.7% in June from an upwardly revised 75.8% in May (the highest since September 2025; 75.7% initially). The June rate was 2.5 percentage points below its long-run average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- June IP +0.1% (+1.1% y/y), fourth m/m increase in five months.
- Manufacturing unchanged (+1.1% y/y), w/ durables -0.1% and nondurables +0.2%.
- Selected high-tech +0.5%, eighth gain in nine mths.; motor vehicles +0.7%, sixth rise in seven mths.
- Mining +0.4% (+2.4% y/y), third consecutive m/m increase.
- Utilities +0.4% (+0.3% y/y), led by a 0.9% rebound in electric utilities output.
- Key categories in market groups post mixed results.
- Capacity utilization steady at 76.1%; mfg. capacity utilization marginally down to 75.7%.

U.S. Industrial Production Up Slightly in June; Manufacturing Flat

Michael J. Moran

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Total housing starts jumped 19.0% in June, but the sharp advance was less impressive than it might appear. The increase reflected a striking gain of 76.2% in the multi-family sector, but the surge followed a soft month in May. Moreover, single-family building lost a bit of ground (off 0.2%).

The increase in multi-family starts was the fourth largest in the history of the series (data available from 1959). The change involved a large dose of random volatility, as it followed a drop of 39.6% in the prior month, which pushed the level of multi-family starts to the low end of the recent range. Still, the surge in June moved multi-family starts to the upper end of the range from the current cycle and reinforced the upward trend in multi-family activity.

The dip in single-family starts occurred from upwardly revised readings in both April and May (1.7% firmer than previously believed in both months). The revisions, although notable, were not strong enough to have a marked influence on the generally soft performance in the single-family sector. After trending lower during most of 2024 and 2025, single-family building has changed modestly in recent months. The upward revision in April and May gave an upward bump to single-family starts, but the underlying trend is still close to flat.

Building permits are less volatile than starts, and the higher degree of stability usually provides a clearer view of underlying trends. Overall, permits drifted lower during 2024 and 2025 before inching up in the first half of this year. The upward nudge in 2026 primarily reflects planned activity in multi-family building; single-family permits have been tracing a largely sideways trend (charts below).

In general, the housing sector has been soft in the past few years. Activity slowed noticeably in 2022 and 2023 in response to higher interest rates. (Mortgage rates rose from the neighborhood of 3.0% in 2021 to a peak of more than 8.0% in late 2023.) With higher interest rates generating affordability challenges, residential construction has constrained GDP growth in most recent quarters (negative contributions to GDP growth in 12 of the past 17 quarters; an average drag of 0.2 percentage point).

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Multi-Family starts rebounded from a soft reading in May.
- Single-family activity dipped from upwardly revised levels; softish trend overall.

June Housing Starts: Contrasting Movements in Multi-Family and Single-Family

Robert Brusca

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**Inflation in EMU**
The recent inflation data in the European Monetary Union is emblematic of the kind of issues that central banks typically have to deal with. Casual central bank observers think of central banks as “leaning against the wind,” meaning that they raise rates when inflation is high and then cut rates when the economy gets weak. Indeed, this is largely what central banks do. However, they also try to be anticipatory when they can, seeking to get ahead of surges in inflation and periods when the economy is going to weaken. It's very hard to forecast those shifts in the best of circumstances, and so a great deal of the judgment that central banks form comes from the near-term trends, even though central banks are aware that the most recent data can also be some of the most volatile and prone to revision. With these sorts of caveats, we look at the recent inflation data from the European Monetary Union, and we see less than straightforward trends.

At its last meeting, the European Central Bank got out in front of events and started raising rates ahead of any action by the Federal Reserve. In June, its year-over-year HICP and core HICP rates both decelerated compared to their May values, with the headline easing to 2.8% from 3.2% and the core to 2.4% from 2.6%. Having inflation rates move in the opposite direction of policy, even in the short run, can create rough sledding for a central bank that is, in any event, trying to look at the broader trend rather than the most recent wiggle in the inflation rate. 

**The good, the bad, and the unexpected**
If we go back to December, we see the HICP in the monetary union at 2%, followed by 1.7% in January and 1.9% in February. At that point, things seemed to be well in hand. The problem was that the core inflation rate in December was 2.3%; while it fell to 2.2% in January, it popped back up to 2.4% in February. So, February was one of those uncomfortable months where both the headline and core rates were popping up, but the headline rate was still below the 2% target that the ECB seeks to attain. After February, of course, the world changed; the war in Iran spiked up oil prices and that's when inflation rate in the monetary union rose to 2.6% in March, 3% in April, and 3.2% in May. June inflation has backed down from those higher rates of change; however, conditions in the Middle East that had prompted some release of air from the inflation balloon in June have reversed, and so, the outlook once again is for oil prices to remain high and for inflation to remain troublesome.

**Inflation still percolates**
At the bottom of the table, I show the percentage of categories with inflation accelerating over three months, and since February, that percentage is over 50% in each month. The percentage of categories with inflation accelerating over six months strings out to three months in a row. The decision by the ECB to raise rates is entirely understandable given these trends. In addition, and perhaps less tethered to any particular monetary rule, included in the right-hand column, the inflation ranking in June is compared to data back to the year 2001, a roughly 25-year period. Over this timeline, the headline HICP ranks in the 83rd percentile and the core rate in the 82nd percentile. In both cases, we're looking at inflation being higher only 17% or 18% of the time during this span, which once again marks this as a strong inflation period.

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**Haunted by their legacy**
In addition, central banks are coming off a period where they had missed their inflation targets quite a lot. While the ECB had been able to land its inflation rate inside its target zone for a while, the Federal Reserve has not been able to accomplish that at all; the Bank of England is still struggling with that, and the Bank of Japan, after dueling with deflation, now has an excess of inflation. Globally, there is this environment that's looking a lot more fundamentally inflationary rather than disinflationary and certainly not deflationary, thanks to oil and war. 

**Complex circumstances but a clear objective**
Central banks certainly have to set their policies for their own domestic conditions, but global conditions do matter. The war or warlike conditions continue in Ukraine and Iran. Although the United States and Israel were able to deal Iran a potentially crippling blow to its nuclear operations, Iran tenaciously clings to its ambition to eventually nuclearize and it has added to that a claim to control traffic at the Strait of Hormuz, which most countries find to be unacceptable and which is also in violation of international law. At the same time, Ukraine has been able to penetrate Russian defenses to make strikes deep into Russia against Russian energy resources, so the war in Ukraine is going a lot better for the Ukrainians, although it also is putting the energy sector under greater peril and pressure. These days circumstances are so complicated that sometimes even good news can play out as bad news. One might think that after the evisceration that Iran got in the hands of the United States and Israel, it would be more contrite. But it has not and has only hardened its resistance. Iran is using its advantage over a peculiar piece of geography in the Strait of Hormuz to try to become a global power despite having been stripped of almost all of its military might. As it turns out, the Strait of Hormuz is so delicate that it doesn't take much for Iran to be able to create a good deal of chaos with tanker traffic using missiles, drones, and mines. All of this makes the inflation outlook so much harder to pin down. Monetary policy should not require central bankers to be military strategists, but we have, in some sense, been relegated to that sort of situation.

Europe

HICP Detail in EMU Shows Inflation Lurking

Sandy Batten

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Total retail sales rose a slightly smaller-than-expected 0.2% m/m (6.7% y/y) in June following an upwardly revised 1.0% monthly gain in May (previously +0.9% m/m), according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.3% m/m gain. For all of Q2, total sales were up 2.9% q/q versus a 1.3% quarterly gain in Q1. Excluding autos, other sales fell 0.2% m/m (+6.9% y/y) in June after an upwardly revised 1.0% m/m increase in May (previously +0.8% m/m). Expectations were for an unchanged reading in June. For all of Q2, ex-auto sales were up 3.2% q/q versus 1.5% in Q1.

Retail gasoline prices fell markedly in June following the announced MoU between the US and Iran. Accordingly, gasoline sales plummeted 5.3% m/m, the first monthly decline since January, thereby markedly restraining total sales. Sales excluding gasoline were up a solid 0.7% m/m (5.7% y/y) in June following a 0.9% monthly increase in May. For all of Q2, ex-gasoline sales rose 2.1% q/q, up from 1.1% in Q1.

The control group of sales (total sales excluding food services, autos, gasoline and building materials that the BEA uses to construct PCE in the national accounts) posted another solid increase in June, rising 0.5% m/m (6.4% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.8% monthly increase in May (previously 0.7% m/m). For all of Q2, control-group sales rose 2.2% (9.2% annualized) versus a 1.4% quarterly rise in Q1, auguring a Q2 pickup in consumer spending in the national accounts.

Sales across major sectors were mixed in June. Auto sales added to the May rebound with a 1.9% m/m jump in June on top of a 1.1% monthly increase in May. The 1.7% q/q rise in auto sales in Q2 was the strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2024. Electronic and appliance store sales rose 0.8% m/m in June, more than offsetting a 0.2% m/m decline in May. Sales at sporting goods, hobby and music stores jumped 1.3% m/m in June for a strong 4.8% quarterly gain in Q2, the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2021. Sales of nonstore retailers continue their stronger performance rising 1.9% m/m on top of a 1.4% monthly increase in May and a 1.5% monthly gain in April. Over the first six months of this year, nonstore retail sales have risen 9.6% (20.1% annualized).

By contrast, food and beverage store sales fell 0.2% m/m in June, the first monthly decline in four months. Sales at health and personal care stores declined 0.8% m/m, their second monthly decline in the past three months. Clothing sales fell 0.3% m/m in June. And miscellaneous store sales fell 0.3% m/m, the third monthly decline in the past four months. Sales at food services and drinking places, a popular indicator of discretionary spending, edged up only 0.1% m/m in June, down markedly from a 1.2% monthly gain in May and a 1.0% increase in April. And general merchandise store sales edged up 0.1% m/m in June.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total sales increased 0.2% m/m in June, slightly below expectations, with an upward revision to May.
- Gasoline sales plunged 5.3% m/m, reflecting lower prices.
- Excluding gasoline sales, remaining sales rose a solid 0.7% m/m in June after a 0.9% monthly gain in May.
- Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.5% m/m in June and were up 9.2% at an annual rate in Q2 from Q1.

U.S. Retail Sales in June Slowed by Drop in Gasoline Sales

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The Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo fell 5.6% m/m (+3.0% y/y) to a slightly lower-than-expected 34 in July following a 2.7% decrease to 36 in June (initially -5.4%; 35) and an 8.8% increase to 37 in May (unrevised). July marked the third m/m decline in four months and a three-month low. A reading of 35 had been expected in the INFORMA Global Markets survey. The HMI had remained below the breakeven 50 level since May 2024. The July index, while slightly above 33 in July 2025, was 39.3% below a high of 56 in July 2023 and 62.2% below a record-high 90 in November 2020.

Notably, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.55% in the July 16 week—the highest since the week of August 28, 2025—from 6.49% in the July 9 week, compared to 6.49% during all of June, according to Freddie Mac. The rate was above its recent low of 5.98% in the February 26 week but below a high of 7.22% in the week of May 2, 2024 and a peak of 7.79% in the week of October 26, 2023.

All three HMI components declined this month. The index of present single-family sales conditions fell 2.6% (+2.8% y/y) to 37 in July, the third m/m fall in four months, after a 5.0% decrease to 38 in June. The index was 40.3% below a high of 62 in July 2023 and 61.5% below a record-high 96 in November 2020. The index of expected single-family sales for the next six months slid 4.4% (0.0% y/y) to 43 in July after being unchanged m/m at 45 in June. The index was 34.8% below a high of 66 in December 2024 and 51.7% below a peak of 89 in November 2020. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers dropped 8.0% (+15.0% y/y) to 23 in July after holding steady m/m at 25 in June. The index was 42.5% below a high of 40 in July 2023 and 70.1% below a record-high 77 in November 2020. These three HMI components posted their lowest levels since April.

By region, the HMIs were down m/m in the Northeast and West this month, while up in the Midwest and flat in the South. The index for the Northeast plunged 18.0% (-14.6% y/y) to 41 in July, the first m/m decline since April and a three-month low, following a 13.6% advance to 50 in June. The index for the West fell 7.4% (0.0% y/y) to 25, the lowest level since July 2025, after registering at 27 in June and May. In contrast, the index for the Midwest rose 2.2% (7.0% y/y) to 46, the highest level since December, after holding at 45 in June and May. Meanwhile, the index for the South was unchanged at 31 (+6.9% y/y) in July and June following a 5.9% rebound to 36 in May.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low". The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The regional indexes run back to December 2004.

These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The Informa Global Markets survey is in Haver's **MMSAMER** database.

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- HMI weakens m/m in July, indicating most builders remain pessimistic about the current and near-term housing outlook.
- All three HMI components down, w/ the steepest m/m drop in prospective buyer traffic (-8.0%).
- Mixed regional performance m/m: down in the Northeast (-18.0%) and West (-7.4%); up in the Midwest (+2.2%); flat in the South.

U.S. Housing Market Index Falls in July; Third M/M Decline in Four Months

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