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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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Moderate growth describes the November job market report. Nonfarm payrolls increased 199,000 (1.8% y/y) after rising an unrevised 150,000 in October and 262,000 in September, revised from 297,000. So far this year, payrolls have risen an average 232,000 per month after an average 399,000 in 2022. The latest increase compared to expectations for a 190,000 gain in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in November following an unrevised 0.2% October gain and a 0.3% September increase, revised from 0.2%. The 4.0% y/y earnings increase remains well below a high of 5.9% y/y in March 2022. A 0.3% November gain had been expected.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, declined to 3.7% in November from 3.9% in October. It was the lowest rate since July but was higher than its 3.4% April low. Expectations had been for a 3.9% rate. Household employment rose 747,000 after declining 348,000 in October. The labor force increased 532,000 following a 201,000 decline. The overall unemployment rate, including workers who were marginally attached & working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 7.0% last month and reversed its October increase to 7.2%. The rate has been trending higher since its 6.5% December 2022 low.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment increased 150,000 (1.6% y/y) after increasing 85,000 in October. Factory sector jobs rose 28,000 (2.2% y/y) after a 35,000 October decline. Construction sector employment rose 2,000 (2.6% y/y) after a 25,000 October increase.

Private service-producing employment improved 121,000 (1.7% y/y) after rising 95,000 in October. Industry performance remained mixed. Trade, transportation & utilities employment fell 35,000 (+0.3% y/y) but leisure & hospitality payrolls rose 40,000 (3.2% y/y). Education & health care jobs gained 99,000 (4.2% y/y) while professional & business jobs fell 9,000 (+0.9% /y), including a 13,600 decline (-5.1% y/y) in temporary help employment. Financial sector employment improved 4,000 (0.6% y/y) and information sector payrolls rose 10,000 (-3.1% y/y) following six straight months of decline.

Government sector payrolls rose 49,000 (2.9% y/y) after a 65,000 October gain. Local government payrolls rose 32,000 (2.3% y/y) and state government jobs increased 17,000 (4.5% y/y). The number of federal government jobs held steady (+2.9% y/y).

The 0.4% gain in private-sector average hourly earnings reflected a 0.5% rise (5.3% y/y) in goods-producing earnings. Construction sector earnings rose 0.5% (4.9% y/y) and factory sector earnings strengthened 0.6% (5.3% y/y). In the private services sector, earnings rose 0.3%. The 3.6% y/y increase remained well below its high of 6.1% in March 2022. Leisure & hospitality earnings increased 0.6% and 4.6% y/y, still well below the 14.0% y/y peak in December 2021. Information sector pay rose 0.5% (2.3% y/y). Financial activities earnings surged 0.5% (5.5% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities sector pay rose 0.3% (4.2% y/y) last month. Professional & business sector earnings improved 0.4% (4.1% y/y) while private education and health services pay edged up 0.1% (2.5% y/y) after two consecutive 0.2% monthly increases.

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The length of the average workweek improved to 34.4 hours in November but remained below a peak of 35.0 hours in January 2021. The workweek in the goods-producing sector held steady at 39.9 hours. The construction sector workweek improved to 39.3 hours, while the factory sector workweek held at 40.0 hours. The average workweek in the private service sector was steady at 33.3 hours for the ninth straight month but remained below the 34.0 hour high early in 2021. Financial sector hours have been unchanged at 37.4 hours but information services hours slipped to 36.0 hours. Professional & business service hours rose to 36.5 hours while leisure & hospitality hours were unchanged at 25.5 hours in November.

The private sector’s aggregate weekly hours index, a key indicator of production and income, rose 1.3% (+0.9% y/y) in November but has risen only 0.3% on average so far in the fourth quarter.

In the **household survey**, the lower 3.7% unemployment rate in November was accompanied by a higher 62.8% labor force participation rate. It has been trending higher from a low of 61.3% in January 2021. The participation rate for teenagers fell to 37.5% from a 14-year high of 37.9% in October. For workers aged 20-24, the rate eased to 71.6% and compared to a high of 72.0% in February & March. For workers aged 25-54, the rate held steady at 83.3% in November, but was increased from 81.9% two years earlier. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved to 38.8% in November but remained well below its 40.5% peak in July 2019.

The employment/population ratio for all workers rose to 60.5% from a low of 51.3% in April 2020. It remained below its reading of 61.1% in February 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The average duration of unemployment fell sharply to 19.4 weeks in November	from 21.6 weeks in the prior month. The median duration of unemployment rose, however, to 9.2 weeks and reversed October’s decline. It remained below the 19.9-week high in June 2021.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Moderate October jobs gain is unrevised; September strength lessened.
- Earnings growth edges up, exceeding expectations.
- Lower jobless rate accompanies strong employment & labor force gains.

U.S. Payroll & Earnings Growth Improve in November; Unemployment Rate Declines

Carol Stone, CBE

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The Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts report for the third quarter was published yesterday, December 7. It shows that credit demand in the U.S. totaled $3,269.1 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q3, which amounted to 11.8% of GDP. This was down slightly from the $3,419.0 billion in Q2, which was 12.6% of GDP. Note that the GDP amount is in current dollars, the same measurement scale as credit demand.  Note that the quarterly data are at annual rates, so they can be compared to the yearly data and also to GDP and to the disposable personal income data we mention. The credit demand measures in both of these most recent quarters are down from the sizable $5,105.3 billion in Q1, which was a more substantial 19.0% of GDP.

Nonfinancial sectors borrowed $3,775 billion saar in Q3, down from $4,445 billion in Q2. The federal government was yet again the largest borrower, with $2,968 billion in Q3 after $3,440 billion in Q2.

Households were the next largest borrowing sector, although their borrowing in Q2 and Q3 was much smaller than the federal government’s with $495 billion in Q3 and $528 billion in Q2. This household borrowing was just 2.4% of disposable income in Q3 and 2.6% in Q2. People borrowed $323 billion in home mortgages in Q3, very similar to $368 billion in Q2 and $348 billion in Q1; their use of consumer credit was $52 billion in Q3, just over half of the $103 billion in Q2.

Nonfinancial businesses borrowed $323 billion in Q3, slightly less than the $388 billion they borrowed in Q2 and noticeably less than the $957 billion in Q1. In fact, these Q3 and Q2 amounts are the smallest business borrowing since the second half of 2020. The two major types of business borrowing were both relatively modest. The amounts of credit raised through debt securities were only $94 billion in Q3 and $143 billion in Q2, which followed $562 billion in Q1. Borrowing by loans was $249 billion in Q3 and $245 billion in Q2, both annual rates; these are moderate amounts, although loans had been quite strong in 2022, totaling $1,058 billion.

Foreign borrowing in U.S. markets and institutions was modest in Q3, just $15 billion at an annual rate, after $206 billion in Q2 and $86 billion in Q1; these followed a total of $290 billion during 2022.

Financial institutions in the U.S. had paid down $1.232 trillion in debt in Q2, and they paid down another $520 billion in Q3. They paid down $13 billion in debt securities in Q3 after paying down $258 billion in Q2. In contrast, they had raised $1.538 trillion in debt securities in Q1 and $1.275 trillion during all of 2022. The same quarterly pattern applied to financial institutions’ use of loans in recent periods. In Q3 they paid down $520 billion after paying down $1.232 trillion in Q2. But in Q1, they had raised $2.367 trillion, and during all of 2022, they raised $1.623 trillion.

Net wealth in the U.S. economy decreased in Q3, as it fell $761.6 billion after an increase of $6.171 trillion in Q2. These data are quoted at actual, not annualized or seasonally adjusted amounts. On September 30, net wealth stood at $141.9 trillion, down from $142.6 trillion at the end of Q2, which was the all-time high. Household net worth was $151.0 trillion on September 30, down slightly from $152.3 trillion on June 30, which was also the all-time high.

The Financial Accounts data are in Haver's **FFUNDS** database. The Federal Reserve is the main source, while associated information is compiled in the Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts produced jointly with the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); those nonfinancial data are carried in Haver's **USNA** database as well as in **FFUNDS**. Note that revisions are common throughout the accounts with every quarterly release.

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- U.S. and foreign borrowing totaled 11.8% of GDP in Q3, down from 12.6% in Q2.
- Federal government again largest borrowing sector by far in Q3, although down a bit from Q2.
- Business borrowers reduced credit use in Q3 to just one-third of Q1 amount.

Credit Demand in U.S. Markets Eased Slightly in Q3

Robert Brusca

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The inflation picture in Germany is improving rapidly. In November the HIPC measure fell by 0.1%; in October it fell by 0.2%; and in September it was flat. This is an impressive string of month-to-month weakness in prices. During the same period, the core HICP fell by 0.2% in November compared to October, it rose by 0.2% in October, while in September the core declined by 0.2%. Again, that's an impressive string of weakness in prices – this time in the less-volatile core prices.

**Sequential trends-** Looking at sequential headline price trends from 12-months, to six-months, to three-months - at annual rates of change- inflation logged a 2.2% gain over 12 months, it edged up to a 2.7% pace over six months and then, over three months, prices fell at a 1.3% annual rate. Core inflation rose by 3.9% over 12 months, the six-month annual rate fell to 2.8%, and the core rate over three months annualizes to a minus 0.6% change. Inflation is controlled and largely falling. Will this trend remain in place?

**A year-on-year focus-** Central banks tend to emphasize the year-over-year rates of change in prices to be sure they are reacting to the trend and not to transient volatility. The year-on-year gain in the headline HICP for Germany is at 2.2%, the core is nearly double that at 3.9%. While there are no targets for country level inflation in the European Monetary Union, the German economy is a large economy and gets a very large weight in the statistics for the EMU. Germany's progression to lower rates of inflation is going to have an important and impressive impact on the EMU community.

**The German domestic inflation gauge-** The current domestic version of inflation has not been quite as favorable but the headline fell by 0.1% in November, was flat in October, and rose by 0.3% in September. The domestic German CPI excluding energy rose by 0.2% in November, rose by 0.1% in October, and rose by 0.2% in September. Its sequential annual rates for headline inflation, however, fall steadily from 3.2% over 12 months, to a 2.4% pace over six months, to a 0.7% pace over three months. That’s clearer deceleration than for the HICP headline measure. The German CPI excluding energy also shows a steady deceleration but logs inflation rates higher than those for the core HICP. The CPI excluding energy rises at a 4.1% annual rate over 12 months, at a 3% annual rate over six months and then decelerates to a 1.8% pace over three-months - still a nice progression of prices behaving- but not the same as the -0.6% three-month pace that the core HICP posts.

**Diffusion signals are encouraging-** Diffusion measures the breadth of the change in inflation across categories over the various periods. Over 12 months, the diffusion measure registers 45%, which tells us that inflation is accelerating in only 45% of the categories. Over six months, diffusion is 18%, which tells us that inflation accelerated over six months compared to 12 months in only 18% of the categories. Over three months, diffusion stood at 36%, telling us that inflation accelerated in only 36% of the categories over three months compared to six months.

**Inflation signals showing progress reinforce one-another-** Breadth statistics back up what's going on with headline and core inflation. Inflation is broadly falling and not accelerating; we see that both headline and core inflation rates are decelerating. These trends echo trends that we see in the United Kingdom and in the United States. Inflation progress is being aided by weakness in global oil prices. OPEC as well as OPEC-plus have not been able to cut back output fast enough to stabilize oil prices.  Measured in euros, the Brent oil price is down by 15% over 12 months; it rises at an 18.3% annual rate over six months, but then it’s falling at a 9.4% annual rate over three months. Brent prices expressed in euros fell by 9.2% month-to-month in November after falling 2.9% month-to-month in October; those progressions followed a 10.7% increase in September. Oil’s contribution is erratic.

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**Global forces are in play-** Weakening global growth appears to be having an impact on global commodity prices and oil prices as well as the general effect on national price levels. However, the measure for inflation that central banks emphasize is the 12-month inflation rate. The progression for inflation over shorter periods is showing a clear -and in some cases - dramatic decline in the rate of inflation. Central banks have been slow to embrace the recent inflation decline having made one inflation mistake in this cycle already; some of them don't think they can afford to make a second inflation mistake, so they're waiting to make sure that this short-term price weakness reduces the pace of inflation on a year-over-year basis to their target or at least much closer to their target before they reverse policies and take their foot off the brake.

**The Road Ahead-** Still, we have to consider central bank policies in the U.S., in the EMU, and in the United Kingdom as being difficult to characterize since central banks contributed so much to the inflation. They were so slow to raise rates and did not raise them as much as they did in the past when inflation emerged. Now that inflation is falling, they hardly have any choice but to make sure that inflation is going to be under control before they start cutting interest rates. Central bank credibility has taken a huge hit in this cycle as banks joined too vigorously to buffer the economies from the effects of Covid. As a result, the combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus, in addition to the unexpected impact of war, created a huge inflation rate that central banks have had a hard time getting in front of. They may now be in front of it. But they seem to be playing a much more careful game when it comes to their own perception of how much in control they really are.

Germany

German Inflation Sinks Lower

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Consumer credit increased $5.2 billion during October (3.1% y/y) after rising $12.2 billion in September, revised from $9.1 billion. A $9.3 billion rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to disposable personal income held steady at 24.4% but has been declining since a 25.4% December 2022 high.

Nonrevolving credit balances, which reflect secured and unsecured credit for big-ticket items, such as autos, mobile homes, trailers, durable goods and vacations, rose $2.2 billion (1.0% y/y) in October following a $7.8 billion September gain. Bank borrowing fell 1.7% y/y while finance company loans rose 6.2% y/y. Credit union loans rose 6.4% y/y while Federal government loans declined 1.4% y/y.

Revolving credit improved $2.9 billion (9.3% y/y) in October after rising $4.4 billion in September. Credit card balance growth continued to slow, rising 9.9% y/y versus 17.0% y/y growth in October 2022. Revolving loans at finance companies fell 6.8% y/y while credit union borrowing gained 13.0% y/y.

The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the **AS1REPA** database.

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- Nonrevolving & revolving credit usage both slow.
- Nonrevolving bank borrowing & revolving finance company loans decline y/y.

Consumer Credit Growth Ebbs in October

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Wholesale inventories declined 0.4% (-2.3% y/y) during October after holding steady in September, revised from a 0.2% increase. The Informa Global Markets Survey expected a 0.2% decline. Wholesale inventories have been declining since November of last year in contrast to a 17.3% accumulation during 2022.

Durable goods inventories rose 0.1% in October (2.0% y/y) after a 0.2% September rise. Automotive inventories were fairly steady (+12.8% y/y). Machinery inventories rose 0.4% (16.1% y/y) and electrical equipment inventories increased 0.9% (-3.3% y/y). To the downside, inventories of lumber & other construction materials were off 0.3% (-8.3% y/y). Hardware & plumbing product inventories declined 0.7% (-4.9% y/y) while furniture & appliance inventories fell 0.5% (-15.2% y/y) after two straight 1.7% declines. Metals and minerals inventories were off 0.3% (-5.7% y/y). Professional & commercial equipment inventories weakened 0.2% (-7.1% y/y).

Nondurable goods inventories moved 1.0% lower (-8.9% y/y) following ten consecutive monthly declines. Most categories showed inventory decumulation. The value of petroleum inventories fell 6.8% (-15.3% y/y) and grocery inventories eased 0.6% (-4.5 y/y). Apparel inventories were off 0.6% (-20.3% y/y) while chemical inventories declined 1.0% (-13.2% y/y). Paper & paper product inventories fell 0.5% (-19.3% y/y) but farm product inventories rose 1.7% (-25.1% y/y).

Wholesale sales declined 1.3% (-0.4% y/y) in October following three straight monthly increases. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.7% increase. Durable goods sales fell 0.5% (-2.2% y/y) as motor vehicle sales weakened 2.6% (+1.2% y/y) and electrical equipment sales were off 0.7% (-1.3% y/y). Furniture sales were off 3.5% (-6.9%) while machinery sales fell 0.9% (+0.7% y/y). Working higher, professional equipment sales rose 0.4% (-3.1% y/y).

Nondurable goods sales fell 2.0% (+1.2% y/y) as petroleum sales declined 5.9% (-1.4% y/y). Apparel sales fell 2.5% (-8.1% y/y) and chemical sales moved 2.9% lower (-9.6% y/y). Paper products sales weakened 1.0% (-10.0% y/y) and farm product sales fell 3.8% (-4.6% y/y). Purchases of grocery products declined 1.0% (+0.8% y/y).

The wholesale inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio edged up to 1.34 in October from 1.33 in September. It remained down from a June high of 1.41. The I/S ratio for durable goods rose to	1.83 from 1.82 while the ratio for nondurable goods rose to 0.93 from 0.92, the lowest level since November 2014.

The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the **MMSAMER** database. Expectations for sales are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Inventories fall with lower oil prices.
- Sales weaken sharply.
- Inventory-to-sales ratio edges higher.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories & Sales Decline in October

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Consumer Sentiment (Dec-final), Employment Situation (Nov)

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