Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

261021A1.jpg

261021B1.jpg

Mortgage applications fell 5.3% w/w (-40.4% y/y) in the week ending October 16, the 7th consecutive weekly decline and after declining 2.7% w/w (-37.2% y/y) in the week ending October 9, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 7.3% w/w (-17.9% y/y) in the latest week, after declining 4.0% w/w (-16.1% y/y) in the October 9 week. Applications for loan refinancing fell 2.0% w/w (-58.6% y/y) in the October 16 week following a decline of 0.4% w/w (-56.0% y/y) in the October 9 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 12bps to 7.63% in the week ending October 16 from 7.75% in the week ending October 9, and after rising for 8 consecutive weeks. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell 18bps to 6.91% in the October 16 week from 7.09% in the October 9 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate fell 19bps to 7.50% in the latest week from 7.69% in the October 9 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM declined 9bps to 6.87% in the October 16 week from 6.96% in the October 9 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 39.0% of total applications in the week of October 16 from 37.7% in the week ending October 9. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity was unchanged at 10.5% in the latest week.

The average size of a mortgage rose 0.5% w/w (-10.3% y/y) to $372,100 in the week ending October 16, after declining 2.0% w/w (-7.5% y/y) to $370,200 in the week ending October 9. The average size of a purchase loan was unchanged at $444,700 in the October 16 week after declining 0.8% w/w in the October 9 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 4.5% w/w to $258,400 in the week ending October 16 after declining 3.9% w/w to $247,200 in the October 9 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing both declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans fell 12bps to 7.63%, the first decline in 8 weeks.
- Average loan size rose slightly in the October 16 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fell in the October 16 Week

Robert Brusca

261021E.jpg

Inflation in the United Kingdom is back to misbehaving in September. The HICP rendition of inflation posted a 0.5% increase, its second in a row, following a 0.6% increase in July. The CPIH, however, performed exactly the same, with a 0.5% increase in September and August, after a 0.6% gain in July. This is going to put the Bank of England's back up against the wall when it comes to making its next interest rate decision.

**Hot, hot, hot**: Inflation runs hot in the United Kingdom. The CPIH version shows a 6.6% annual rate over three months, a 4.2% pace over six months, and 3.6% over 12 months. This is a clear accelerating profile with inflation clearly over the 2% mark over each one of those horizons. A year ago, inflation was rising 4.1% year-over-year. There's very little here to provide any escape from the conclusion that interest rates need to go up and inflation is a problem that needs some strict attention.

**Core inflation is rising as well**: Core inflation in the U.K. under the CPIH measure rose 0.4% in September after rising 0.2% in August and 0.4% in July. The sequence of core inflation rates from 12 months inward shows a 12-month pace of 3.1%, a six-month pace of 3.2%, and a three-month pace of 4.1%. These increases are faster-paced step by step as horizons shorten. However, like the headline, all three of these metrics are above 2% and once again there is this accelerating trend in place, even for the core, and that has to be an even more difficult pill for the Bank of England to swallow.

**Inflation acceleration:** If we look at the tendency to accelerate, acceleration occurred in 58.3% of the categories in July; that proportion fell to 41.7% in August, and it was back up to 50% in September. So, as of September, the proportion of these categories showing acceleration is split pretty much 50/50, making it less of a clear acceleration imperative on volatile monthly data. However, over three months compared to six months, 75% of the categories are accelerating; over six months compared to 12 months, again 75% of the categories are accelerating; over 12 months compared to 12 months ago, that proportion drops to 41.7%. But the drop in the breadth of inflation is also related to the fact that the 12-month inflation rate had dropped from a year ago at 3.8% to 3.5%; it dropped more, from 4% to 3.1%, in the case of the core CPIH. In other words, inflation has fallen from a very excessive pace to a still excessive pace, and that drop is ‘endorsed’ by a drop in breadth. Breadth can reinforce direction. And now inflation and breadth both are rising – a bad sign.

**Inflation ranking**: We also can look at how inflation ranks compared to where it's been and on this basis that we wind up with another troubling finding. The HICP version of inflation has an 82nd percentile standing; the CPIH version also has an 82nd percentile standing and the CPIH core measure has a slightly higher 82.7 percentile standing. So, inflation is high even by historic experience; that compares current year-over-year inflation in September to inflation rates back to the year 2000. On that timeline, in fact, the median for inflation has a 77th percentile standing and the average pace for inflation has a 72nd percentile standing across categories. Now both of these are slightly lower than the actual CPIH version at a ranking of 82%. What that tells us is that inflation has been even more virulent in those categories that have a higher weight in the CPI.

**Summing up**
On balance, this is a poor report; it will probably put the Bank of England's back up against the wall to enforce another rate hike. It's hard to see how the central bank can look at these various measures of inflation and their path and decide to pass on a rate hike at its next meeting, so brace yourself.

261021.jpg

United Kingdom

U.K. CPI Goes Off the Rails Ahead of BOE Meeting

Winnie Tapasanun

261020F.jpg

261020G.jpg

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings, dropped 7.3% m/m to 66.0 in September following a 0.3% increase in August (unrevised) and a 2.6% decline in July (unrevised), data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed, indicating a marked weakening in homebuying demand amid high mortgage rates and worsening housing affordability. September was the third m/m decrease in four months and the lowest PHSI level on record. The year-on-year rate decelerated to -11.3% in September, the deepest y/y fall since August 2023, from -4.7% in August (-0.8% in September 2025). The index had fallen 47.2% since its October 2021 high of 125.1.

The m/m drop in September pending home sales coincided with an increase in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.86%, the highest since January 2025, after a 13-bps rise to 6.67% in August, according to Freddie Mac. These rates, while below a peak of 7.62% in October 2023, had remained above a low of 5.22% in August 2022 and more than double a record-low 2.68% in December 2020.

By region, September pending home sales showed a widespread decline, with the steepest m/m and y/y drop in the West. Sales in the West tumbled 9.2% (-15.0% y/y) in September after a 3.0% rebound in August, and sales in the South slumped 8.2% (-12.0% y/y) following a 2.4% August increase; both regions fell m/m for the third time in four months. Sales in the Midwest decreased 6.5% (-8.7% y/y) on top of a 1.8% August slide, and sales in the Northeast fell 4.2% (-9.4% y/y) after falling at the same pace in August; both regions declined m/m for the fourth straight month.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

These PHSI data date back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Monthly and weekly mortgage interest rates can be found in the **USECON**, **WEEKLY**, and **SURVEYS** databases.

- PHSI -7.3% m/m (-11.3% y/y) to an all-time index low of 66.0 in Sept; third decline in four mths.
- Home sales down m/m and y/y in all four regions, w/ the steepest drop in the West (-9.2% m/m, -15.0% y/y).
- 30-year mortgage rate up to 6.86% in Sept., highest since Jan. ’25, weighing on homebuying demand and affordability.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall to Record Low in September Amid High Mortgage Rates

Sandy Batten

261020F4.jpg

261020G4.jpg

Weighed down by further rises in longer-term interest rates, housing construction fell markedly in September, declining an unexpected 5.2% m/m (-7.4% y/y) to 1.221 million units at an annual rate following a 5.9% monthly drop in August and a 4.9% monthly decline in July. The September level is the second lowest since the economy was emerging from the COVID shutdown in the spring of 2020. The Action Economics Forecast survey looked for a 2.0% monthly gain. Residential investment has been a persistent drag on real GDP growth recently, subtracting from quarterly real GDP growth in seven of the previous nine quarters. Today’s release shows total housing starts in Q3 to be meaningfully lower than in Q2, indicating that residential investment will be a drag on GDP growth in Q3.

Single-family starts fell 4.6% m/m (+2.6% y/y) in September, the second monthly decline in the past three months, following a 2.9% monthly increase in August. Usually volatile multi-family starts have been even weaker recently. They fell 6.7% m/m (-24.9% y/y) in September, their fifth monthly decline in the past six months, on top of a 21.5% monthly drop in August.

Looking at the four major geographic regions, starts rose 6.1% m/m (+11.0% y/y) in the South. They were unchanged from August (-30.9% y/y) in the Northeast after a 43.3% monthly plunge in August. Starts in the Midwest posted the third consecutive double-digit monthly decline in September, falling 19.0% m/m (-19.4% y/y). Starts were even weaker in the West in September, plunging 23.2% m/m (-25.4% y/y) but this was after a 25.4% monthly surge in August.

In comparison to the marked decline in housing starts in September, housing permits edged down only 0.2% m/m (-3.0% y/y) to 1.400 million units at an annual rate. This was the fourth monthly decline in the past five months. Expectations were for a small decline in September. Single-family permits fell 4.0% m/m (-4.8% y/y), their third monthly decline in the past four months. More volatile multi-family permits rose 6.1% m/m (-0.2% y/y), more than offsetting a 3.0% monthly decline in August.

Permits increased in three of the four major regions in September. They jumped 13.3% m/m (-2.0% y/y) in the Northeast but this increase failed to offset a 15.8% monthly drop in August. Permits rose a more moderate 1.5% m/m (-1.8% y/y) in the South after having been unchanged in August. They edged up 0.5% m/m (+4.4% y/y) in the Midwest, the third monthly gain in the past four months. By contrast, permits plunged 10.2% m/m (-11.3% y/y) in the West, the first monthly decline in the past three months.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

261020H4.jpg

261020I4.jpg

- Housing starts fell 5.2% m/m in September to their second lowest level since the COVID pandemic shutdown with upward revisions to both July and August.
- Both single-family and multi-family starts declined in September.
- Permits were little changed in September with a sharp rise in muti-family permits nearly offsetting a meaningful decline in single-family permits.

September U.S. Housing Starts Hit by Rising Interest Rates

261020E.jpg

**The current situation assessment is mixed**
To the ZEW experts, economic assessments of the current situation in October are split, with slight deterioration reported for the euro area as a whole and a two-point step-back for China. However, for Germany and the United States, there were significant improvements with the month-to-month diffusion indexes improving by 6 points in the U.S. and by 11 points in Germany. Ironically, both of the weakening areas, the euro area and China, have percentile standings above their historic medians, with China at a 76.1 percentile standing and the euro area at a 58.7 percentile standing. Germany and the U.S. show some strengthening month-to-month, but their standings are still below their historic medians. The German standing is at a 42.5 percentile and the U.S. standing is at a 46.2 percentile.

**Economic expectations ease broadly**
Economic expectations, however, are unequivocally weaker across the reporting countries. There were declines in expectations in Germany of 6.6 points, in the U.S. of 5.3 points, and in China of 4.2 points; each of these three reporters shows a measurable slippage in October. Among the three countries showing slippage, only Germany continues to report economic expectations ranking above its historic median, at a standing of its 53rd percentile (a ranking above 50 means above median).

**Inflation makes a sharp step back**
The real story of the ZEW survey this month, however, is on inflation where the inflation expectations dropped sharply across the board. For the euro area, expectations dropped 26 diffusion points; in Germany, they dropped 24 diffusion points; in the U.S., they dropped 22 diffusion points; and in China, they dropped by 15 diffusion points. Inflation expectations are above their median now only in China, with a 62nd percentile standing. In the U.S., inflation expectations have dropped to a 28th percentile standing.

**Rising short-term rates continue as inflation is expected to abate**
With the decline in inflation expectations, however, short-term interest rate expectations rose by 2 points in the euro area and by 5.2 points in the United States, while in China there was a step-back of 4.1 diffusion points. All three areas, however, have short-term rate expectations well above the historic median levels.

**Low inflation expectations boost bond values**
The reduction in inflation expectations has had the biggest impact on long-term interest rate expectations. Those have fallen in Germany by 13.2 diffusion points; they've fallen in the U.S. by 18.3 diffusion points; and they've fallen in China by 5.0 diffusion points. The ZEW experts apparently think that central banks are going to continue to raise interest rates and the impact is going to be to flatten yield curves globally.

**ZEW experts’ outlook for stocks**
The final market expectation of the ZEW experts is that stock markets generally are seen improving in this environment. For the euro area, there's a 4.1-point improvement; for Germany, a 5.8-point improvement; and for China, the diffusion index is 4.9 points higher. Only the U.S. has a slightly weaker outlook as the outlook falls by 2.3 diffusion points. All the stock market expectations are above their historic medians, generally ranging between readings above 50, at the 54th percentile to the 57th percentile, except for China, where the stock market expectation is in its 83rd percentile, extremely strong.

261020.jpg

**What the consolidated outlook implies**
To sum up, the outlook of the ZEW officials this month sees current conditions as mixed, economic expectations as lower, inflation expectations as much lower, and short-term interest rates generally creeping a little bit higher, with the impact being to reduce long-term interest rates significantly and allow stock markets to improve in most places except in the U.S. The most significant thing about these expectations is a sharp step-back in inflation expectations for the overall inflation expectation across the euro area, in Germany, and the United States. Those readings average less than a 40th percentile standing at a time that the economic expectations are slightly stronger than that in percentile levels. While both show contraction, inflation expectation rankings are weaker than growth rankings. The outlook for short-term interest rates is much stronger in percentile terms, but the outlook for long-term interest rates is weaker in percentile terms. That is the focus of stimulus.

ZEW forecasters seem to be not very concerned about the short term, but apparently they are hedging their bets about the long term, as economic expectations are weaker and long-term rates are easing and logging weak levels on a historic ranking basis. The one element about this outlook that may seem a bit incongruent is that stock markets continue to post above-median results as economic expectations and long-term interest rates fall significantly. I suppose the message from the ZEW experts is that they expect the drop in the interest rates to help stock markets more than the weakness in the future economic conditions will hurt them.

ZEW Survey Shows a Sharp Reduction in Inflation Concerns

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

Tokyo

London

Singapore

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

GKI-Erste Economic Sentiment Index (Oct) Central Government Debt (Sep)

Wages & Earnings (Aug), Consumer Confidence (Oct)

Textkernel New Online Job Adverts, VAT Flash Estimates (Sep) CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Oct, Q4)

INSEE Business, Services, Construction & Retail Trade Survey (Sep), Quarterly Business Survey (Q4)

Business Tendency Survey (Q3), Labor Force Survey, Monthly Number of Employments & Earnings (Sep)

Invest NonRes Building Construction (Aug)

CPI, RPI, PPI, Public Sector Finances, Price Index of Private Private Rents (Sep), HM Land Registry HPI (Aug), SPPI (Q3)

URSSAF Employment Survey (Sep), Retail & MV Trade (Aug)

Construction Cost Index for Road Construction (Q3)