Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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New orders for durable goods rose 0.5% (7.2% y/y) in September after a 3.0% jump, which followed a 2.8% July decline. A 1.0% shortfall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

A 0.4% (15.8% y/y) rise in transportation sector orders followed an 8.0% August surge, led by commercial aircraft orders. Motor vehicle & parts orders rose 0.4% (4.0% y/y) after increasing 0.8% in August. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.6% (3.1% y/y) after a 0.5% gain. Machinery orders edged 0.1% higher (6.1% y/y) in September after a 2.2% rise. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.5% (3.3% y/y) following a 1.1% decline while electrical equipment & appliance orders strengthened 1.5% (6.6% y/y), the strongest of six consecutive increases. Orders for fabricated metal products increased 0.5% (0.8% y/y) for a second month while primary metals orders surged 1.4% (5.4% y/y) after a 0.5% rise.

Shipments of all manufacturing industries eased 0.1% in September (+2.3% y/y) after falling 0.3% in August. Shipments of durable goods edged 0.1% higher (4.8% y/y) after easing 0.1%. Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft, an indicator of equipment investment in the national accounts, rose 0.9% (4.1% y/y) in September after falling 0.1% in August. Machinery shipments increased 1.4% (4.6% y/y) after easing 0.1% while computer & electronic product shipments were off 0.1% (+4.9% y/y) following a 0.2% dip. Electronic equipment, appliances & components shipments rose 0.4% (4.1% y/y) after rising 0.1%. Motor vehicle & parts shipments rose 0.5% (3.9% y/y) during September following a 0.6% rise. Nondurable goods shipments eased 0.2% (-0.1% y/y) after 0.4% decline.

Unfilled durable goods orders increased 0.7% (8.2% y/y) in September for the second month in a row. Excluding a 1.0% surge in transportation, unfilled increased a steady 0.2% (0.9% y/y). Total factory sector inventories eased 0.1% (+1.4% y/y). Durable goods inventories slipped 0.1% (+1.9% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Excluding the transportation sector, durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories were roughly stable (+0.6% y/y) for the second straight month.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Broad-based orders improvement follows August jump.
- Durable shipments gain reverses prior month’s dip.
- Order backlogs grow for second month; inventories ease.

U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Increase in September

Sandy Batten

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 216,000 (unchanged y/y) in the week ended November 22 from a slightly upwardly revised 222,000 in the prior week (previously 220,000). This was the lowest weekly reading since April and was tied for the lowest since February. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 226,000 initial claims for last week. The four-week moving average of initial claims edged down to 223,750 from 224,750.

Federal government workers filed 1,724 claims in the week ended November 15, the fourth consecutive weekly decline from a recent high of 10,062 in the week of October 18.

Continuing claims (previous claims filers who are still receiving unemployment benefits) continued to edge higher, rising to 1.960 million in the week of November 15 from a downwardly revised 1.953 million in the prior week (previously 1.974 million). While new claims have been well contained recently, continuing claims have risen persistently since midyear, indicating that while the pace of layoffs has not increased meaningfully, hiring has slowed. Consequently, those unemployed are having more difficulty finding new jobs and hence are receiving unemployment benefits for longer, a sign that labor market conditions are softening.

Federal government employees continuing benefits fell to 33,083 in the week of November 8, the first weekly decline since the end of August, from 38,867 in the previous week.

In the week ending November 15, the insured rate of unemployment (the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment) was unchanged at 1.3%. It has been at this rate since the end of May.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ended November 8, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.30%), Washington (2.20%), Massachusetts (1.90%), District of Columbia (1.90%), and California (1.80%). The lowest were in South Dakota (0.30%), Florida (0.30%), North Carolina (0.40%), and Louisiana (0.40%). Rates in other notable states include Pennsylvania (1.40%), Illinois (1.50%), New York (1.60%), Texas (1.10%), Michigan (1.40%) and Ohio (0.80%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial unemployment claims fell to 216,000, the lowest weekly figure since April.
- Continued claims edged up to 1.96 million, indicating that the unemployed are still having increasing difficulty finding a job.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fell in Latest Week

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The number of weekly mortgage loans rose 0.2% (52.7% y/y) during the week ended November 21 after declining 5.2% (+62.0% y/y) during the week ended November 14, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house surged 7.6% (18.8% y/y) in the latest week after declining 2.3% (+24.0% y/y) in the prior week. Applications for loan refinancing declined 5.7% (+117.3% y/y) in the week ended November 21, following a decline of 7.3% (+124.7% y/y) in the week ended November 14.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased 3bps to 6.58% in the week ended November 21 from 6.55% during the prior week. The rate on a 15-year fixed rate loan eased 2bps to 5.98% in the latest week from 6.00%, while interest rates on a 30-year JUMBO loan rose 14bps to 6.65% from 6.51%. Rates on a 5-year ARM dropped 31bps to 5.64% from 5.95%. The November 14 rate was the highest rate since the first week of September.

Loans to refinance an existing mortgage fell to 53.4% of total applications in the week ended November 21 from 55.4% in the prior week. The percentage of total loans that were ARMs rose to 7.9% from 7.5% one week earlier.

The average loan size rose 0.2% w/w to $395,600 in the week ended November 21 from $394,900 the prior week. The size of conventional purchase loans declined 1.4% w/w to $427,200 from $433,400, while the size of refinanced loans rose 1.1% w/w to $368,000 from $363,900 one week earlier.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase surged, while those for refinancing declined.
- Interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inched up for the fourth consecutive week.
- Average loan size rose in the latest week.

U.S. Weekly Mortgage Applications Inched Up in The Latest Week

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The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence fell 7.1% in November to 88.7. A level of 92.5 had been expected this month in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The decline in Consumer Confidence was the fourth consecutive monthly drop. It followed a 0.1% October easing (revised -1.0%) and an unrevised 2.2% September shortfall. The index was 21.4% below its peak last November.

The Present Situation index declined 3.3% (-10.3% y/y) after rising 2.9% in October, revised from 1.4%, and falling an unrevised 3.7% in September. The Expectations Index weakened 12.0% (-32.6% y/y) after falling 3.5% in October, revised from -3.9%, after easing an unrevised 0.4% in September.

The percentage of respondents assessing business conditions as “good” fell to 20.1% in November after rising to 20.7% in October. It was the weakest reading since April. The percentage assessing conditions as “bad” rose to 16.9% from 14.5% in October, the most in over a year. The appraisal of labor market conditions weakened as a lessened 27.6% described “jobs plentiful” versus 28.6% in October. That remained below a high of 56.7% in March of 2022. Jobs were viewed as “hard to get” by a lessened 17.9% of respondents this month, but that was increased from a low of 10.5% in February 2023. The labor market differential calculated by Haver Analytics (the percentage of consumers who think jobs are plentiful minus the percentage who believe that jobs are currently hard to get) declined to 9.7% compared to 10.3% in October and 8.7% in September. This measure remained below a high of 47.1% in March 2022. It has a 60% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years.

Expectations for business conditions continued to deteriorate this month as a lessened 15.9% of respondents expect conditions to improve over the next six months, after 18.9% did so in October. A higher 27.7% expect them to worsen, after rising from 22.2% in October. On employment, 14.6% expect the number of jobs to increase over the next six months versus 15.8% in October. The percentage expecting the number of jobs to decline in the next six months fell to 27.5% after rising to 28.8% in October	. A lessened 15.3% of respondents expect income to increase in six months, down from 18.2% in October. That remained off a high of 20.7% in November of last year and compares to a 13.8% who expect income to decrease, up from 11.8% in October.

The expected rate of price inflation over the next twelve months held steady at 5.7% after falling from 5.8% in September and 6.1% in August. These remain up from a low of 5.0% last November. Fifty percent of respondents expect interest rates to rise this year, up from a low of 47.2% October of 2024. The percentage of respondents expecting equity prices to increase over the next twelve months declined to 48.1%, down from 50.3% in October. The percentage expecting a decline in stock prices eased to 28.5% after falling to 28.8% in October.

The percentage of respondents planning to buy a home fell to 4.9% this month down from a high of 6.7% in May. Plans to purchase an automobile declined sharply to 10.9% of respondents this month, down from 13.15 averaged in the fourth quarter of last year. These readings, nevertheless, remain up from a low of 10.6% in April.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Confidence level moves to lowest since April.
- Present situation index and expectations decline.
- Inflation expectations are contained.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Weakens in November; Inflation Expectations Steady

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Total retail sales increased 0.2% (4.3% y/y) in September following an unrevised 0.6% August rise and a 0.6% July improvement. The gain compared to a 0.4% increase expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales gains were spotty last month. Sales excluding autos increased 0.3% (4.1% y/y) in September after rising 0.6% in August, revised from 0.7% after gaining an unrevised 0.4% in July. A 0.4% gain had been expected.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline and food services, dipped 0.1% (+4.1% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in August, revised from 0.7% after an unrevised 0.5% July gain. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in the NIPA accounts.

Motor vehicle & parts dealer sales declined 0.3% (+5.1% y/y) during September after rising 0.6% in August and improving 1.6% during July. This compares to unchanged unit sales of motor vehicles last month which followed a 0.6% August decline. Gasoline service station sales rose 2.0% (3.1% y/y) in September after rising 0.4% in August. Gasoline prices rose fell 0.7% (-1.7% y/y) during September after rising 0.8% in August. Sales of building materials & garden equipment edged 0.2% higher (-2.4% y/y) after rising 0.3% in August.

Elsewhere, sales were lackluster in September. Nonstore retail sales declined 0.7% (+6.0% y/y) after increasing 1.6% in August. Clothing store sales were off 0.7% (+6.7% y/y) following a 1.0% increase. Sporting goods & hobby shop sales declined 2.5% (-0.2% y/y) after strengthening 1.0%. Sales at electronics & appliance stores weakened 0.5% (+6.3% y/y) after easing 0.3% in August. General merchandise store sales improved 0.1% (1.6% y/y) as they did in July, while department store sales weakened 0.7% (-3.3% y/y) after falling 0.9%. Furniture & home furnishings store sales rose 0.6% (1.2% y/y) in September following a 2.0% decline. Miscellaneous store sales rose 2.9% (8.2% y/y) and reversed a 2.9% decline in August.

In the nondiscretionary sales sector, food & beverage store sales rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y) during September following a 0.6% August rise. Health & personal care store sales strengthened 1.1% (5.6% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in August.

Restaurant & drinking establishment sales rose 0.7% (6.7% y/y) in September after rising 1.0% in August.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economic Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Auto sales decline; rise in nonauto sales is restrained.
- Sales ease in retail control group.
- Clothing & nonstore sales decline.

U.S. Retail Sales Post Limited Rise in September

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