Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Sandy Batten

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) narrowed to $59.6 billion in August from a slightly downwardly revised $78.1 billion in July (previously $78.3 billion), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The release had been delayed by the more than one-month long federal government shutdown. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a deficit of $60.5 billion. The goods deficit fell to $85.6 billion in August from $103.7 billion in July, while the services surplus widened to $26.1 billion from $25.6 billion in July. The real (inflation-adjusted) trade deficit narrowed to $83.6 billion (2017$) in August from $100.7 billion in July. Even with the July surge, the sharp narrowing of the real deficit in August puts the trade balance on course to be relatively neutral for Q3 real GDP growth after contributing nearly 5%-points in Q2.

Exports edged up 0.1% m/m (+1.9% y/y) in August following a 0.3% m/m increase in July. Goods exports fell 0.3% m/m while services exports rose a solid 0.8% m/m. For goods, capital goods exports excluding autos increased 4.0% m/m while exports of consumer goods excluding autos slumped 6.8% m/m. Exports of industrial supplies fell 1.0% m/m, their fourth consecutive monthly decline, and auto exports declined 3.0% m/m. For services, exports of maintenance and service repairs jumped 5.6% m/m, exports of government goods and services rose 3.6% m/m, and travel exports increased 1.8% m/m, their first monthly gain in four months.

Imports slumped 5.1% m/m (-1.9% y/y) in August, their fourth monthly decline in the past five months, after jumping 5.9% m/m in July. Both the July jump and the August fall were dominated by swings in imports of nonmonetary gold, which surged $9.6 billion in July and fell $9.3 billion in August. Goods imports fell 6.6% while service imports edged up 0.4% m/m. While the August decline in goods imports was largest in industrial supplies (-18.6% m/m), it was rather widespread across other major categories. Food imports slumped 8.6% m/m, capital goods ex auto imports declined 3.5% m/m, and consumer goods imports fell 6.3% m/m. For services, gains were small but widely spread. Construction service imports increased 2.2% m/m, travel was up 0.5% m/m.

The goods trade deficit with China widened to $15.4 billion in August from $14.7 billion in July. Exports to China slumped 14.0% m/m while imports from China slipped 3.0% m/m. The trade deficit with the European Union narrowed further to $8.1 billion in August from $8.6 billion in July. The deficit with Japan widened to $5.7 billion in August from $4.8 billion in July.

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.



The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found[ here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251119a.htm).


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- Release delayed by the more than one-month federal government shutdown.
- The trade deficit narrowed to $59.6 billion in August from $78.1 billion in July.
- Exports were little changed with a 4% jump in capital goods exports offset by declines in most other major categories.
- Imports fell 5.1% m/m, reflecting a $9 billion monthly decline in nonmonetary gold imports.
- The services surplus edged up in August.

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed in August

Robert Brusca

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UK inflation gives the BOE a greenlight on rate cuts. UK inflation is still excessive at 3.8% over 12-months for the CPI-H and its core metric. But over six-months both of those drop; the headline drops to a pace of 2.9% and the Core drops to 3.0%. Over three-months inflation drops even lower to a headline pace of 2.3% and a care pace of 2.7%. Both are still above the 2% target but look much less dangerous.

Stauch inflation fighters still will not like the results. But with the unemployment rate a year ago at 4.2% and now up to 5% (as of August) and with a one-half-of-one percentage point rise in the unemployment rate in the last six-months it becomes hard to hold the line on monetary policy. The BOE’s rate changes have mirrored those of the Fed in the US, but with the official; unemployment rate at 4% now and short-term inflation readings around 2 ½ percent and unemployment rising it would be hard for the central bank, especially given the turbulent UK political scene, to squeeze the economy further. IN the UK inflation is deflation whereas in the US inflation is stuck, possibly rising and facing the potential of pressure form tariffs. 

 Inflation diffusion checks in below 50% (the level that marks equal tendencies for inflation to accelerate or decelerate across broad categories) for 12-months, 6-months, and 3-months. Over recent months, month-to-month inflation has been contained in terms of broad categories with two of three months showing monthly diffusion below 50%.

It is hard to make any optimistic case for economic activity and if UK activity is going to slow, it is much easier to make a case for inflation containment to progress further. While the more up to date claimant count unemployment rate has been steady, the lagging overall rate has a clear uptrend that has to be viewed as worrisome.

Like the Fed I would surely like to see more progress on inflation in the UK and I do not view current circumstances as optimal to cut rates. But the situation is simply slippery. And monetary policy is made in the real world under conditions or uncertainty. And real-world conditions surely pave the way for some continued rate cutting unless data and trends shift.

In October, the CPI and Core rose by just 0.2% month-to-month with inflation rising in six of ten major categories month-to-month and after seeing only one category accelerate month –to- month in September and a split of five/five in August.

Still, make no mistake about it, inflation is still too high. The question of the bet by the central bank will be on the future. When UK inflation is ranked on Year-over-year monthly observations back to early 2000, inflation is below its median year-to-year rise in only two of ten categories and ranked on the same period the freshest unemployment rate has been lower about 46% of the time marking the current (rising) rate of unemployment as slightly below its median for this period. But the claimant rate that has stabilized at a lower level is nonetheless higher on this period, less than 30% of the time, which means the stability in the claimant rate is not as reassuring as it seems. It would appear that policy dialogue in the UK is about to shift. 




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United Kingdom

UK Inflation Drifts Lower as Unemployment Rises 

Tom Moeller

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The number of weekly mortgage loans declined 5.2% (+62.0% y/y) during the week ended November 14 after edging 0.6% higher during the prior week, and falling 1.9% one week earlier.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 6.55% last week after rising to 6.52% during the prior week. The rate on a 15-year fixed rate loan increased to 6.00% from 5.86% while interest rates on a 30-year JUMBO loan eased to 6.51% from 6.52%. Rates on a 5-year ARM increased to 5.95% from 5.82%. It was the highest rate since the first week of September.

Purchase loan applications declined last week by 2.3% (+24.0% y/y) after rising 5.8% in the prior week, and easing 0.6% one week earlier. Applications to refinance an existing loan declined 7.3% (+124.7% y/y) following a 3.4% decline in the prior week, and falling 2.8% one week earlier.

Loans to refinance an existing mortgage fell to 55.4% of total applications from 55.6% in the prior week. The percentage of total loans that were ARMs declined to 7.5% from 7.8% one week earlier.

The average loan size declined to $394,900 last week from $396,500. The size of conventional purchase loans rose to $433,400 from $431,400 while the size of refinanced loans declined to $363,900 from $368,700 one week earlier.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.






- Purchase and refinancing loans decline.
- Interest rates move to highest level in five weeks.
- Average loan size declines to lowest level since August


U.S. Weekly Mortgage Applications Fall as Interest Rates Edge Higher

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Canadian growth has been in its own trajectory with some solid consumer spending in gear and some slight slowing in GDP growth. Housing has begun to show some wear and tear in this environment even as mortgage rates have remained well off peak and have begun to stabilize around the 5% mark for 5-year mortgage financing.   

Canada has been cutting its policy target rate faster than the Fed has been reducing the Fed funds rate. Canada’s unemployment rate has hovered above the rate for the US and it has been rising; rising - not quickly - but with a bit more purpose than in the US. This may have encouraged the Bank of Canada to cut rates more aggressively with inflation fluctuating is the desired range set by the back of Canada.

Canadian housing starts show the ‘signature slowing’ during Covid and the strong post-Covid recovery that actually has boosts starts well above the average it had maintained for the five-year previous to Covid. Even not with new episode of weakness in train Housing starts are above the pre-Covid average in Canada- and facing higher financing rates than before. 

Canada, like the US, is going through some difficult fiscal times.  In addition, there is an ongoing Trump-Carney spat that is a heavy overlay on the bilateral relations so important to both economies.  Canadian PM Mark Carney just survived a confidence vote over his budget. The Carney budget aims to pump funds into the Canadian provinces to boost infrastructure and house-building.  In Canada builders also face development fees that some want altered but the offer of reducing them has not been put on the table. Not surprisingly Canada is under some of the same pressure as the US for the government to act and supply answers for the housing shortage that has emerged. Carney’s platform on which he was elected had made some substantial promises and they still are not coming to fruition.

Covid seems to have upset a number of apple carts many of them related to housing. Prior to Covid housing demand had not been so vigorous. But Covid may have triggered something that reminded people how important housing can be especially in a crisis when you become house-bound. In the wake of Covid US and Canadian housing demand strengthened. And since the bank of Canada made the same policy mistake as the Fed driving interest rates to the brink of the zero bound during Covid it also created a period of super low mortgage rates which now has the effect of trapping people in their own homes- a form of "golden-handcuffs" that keep people in a house because of cheap financing.  While mortgage rates are nearly 150bp below their post Covid peaks, they are still more than 100bps above their pre-Covid averages.  The housing market remains under duress. 


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Canada

Canadian Housing Starts Show Erosion 

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades remained at an average $3.19 per gallon (+0.7% y/y) in the week ended November 17 after rising from $3.15 in the first week of November. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Their all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. Haver Analytics seasonally adjusts the retail price of regular grade gasoline. That price rose to $3.15 last week from $3.10 in the previous week. Diesel fuel prices rose to $3.87 per gallon last week (10.8% y/y) after increasing to $3.84 per gallon in the prior week.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to an average $59.69 per barrel (-12.3% y/y) in the week ended November 14 after easing to $60.08 per barrel in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $74.17 during the third week of June. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $59.91 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude declined to $62.87 per barrel (-13.7% y/y) in the week of November 14 after falling to $64.30 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in June 2022. Yesterday, the price was $63.16	 per barrel.

Natural gas prices edged higher to an average $3.62/mmbtu (102.2% y/y) in the week ended November 14 after rising to $3.54/mmbtu in the prior week. The increase left prices at the highest level since the second week of April and well above the low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024. Yesterday, the price was $3.71 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand declined 2.6% y/y in the four weeks ending November 7, after falling 2.1% y/y in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 0.9% y/y in the four weeks ending November 7, after falling 1.2% y/y in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries declined 4.3% y/y in the four weeks ending November 7, after falling 4.5% y/y in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories fell 0.9% y/y in the week ending November 7 following a 2.5% y/y decline in the prior week. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 2.6% y/y in the November 7 week after falling 7.1% y/y in the prior week. Working higher, crude oil inventories rose 2.5% y/y in the week of November 7 after increasing 1.9% y/y in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell to 23.3 days in the week of November 7 from 23.7 days in the prior week. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 7, 2024. The supply of crude oil held w/w at 27.5 days in the week of November 7. The supply remained below a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** and **USENERGY** databases.

 


- Gasoline prices hold steady week-to-week.
- Crude oil prices decline.
- Natural gas prices move to highest level since April.
- Demand for gasoline & all petroleum products declines.


U.S. Energy Prices Remain Mixed in Latest Week

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Latest Releases

Economy in Brief

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed in August

UK Inflation Drifts Lower as Unemployment Rises

U.S. Weekly Mortgage Applications Fall as Interest Rates Edge Higher

Canadian Housing Starts Show Erosion

U.S. Energy Prices Remain Mixed in Latest Week