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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Sandy Batten

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CPI increased 0.1% m/m (3.4% y/y) following a 0.4% monthly decline in June. The core index (excluding food and energy prices) rose 0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y) after having been unchanged in June. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% monthly gain for the headline index and a 0.2% monthly increase for the core index. The 3-month rate for the headline index fell to 0.5% annualized in July from 2.8% in June while the 3-month rate for the core index slipped to 1.6% from 2.3% in June.

Combined with the weaker than expected employment report released last week, today’s in line with expectations inflation figures were generally interpreted as assuaging some of Fed’s inflation concerns. However, there is still another CPI report and another employment report before the next FOMC meeting in the middle of September.

Energy prices continued to play a major role in July. Seasonally adjusted energy prices fell 1.5% m/m in July on top of a 5.7% monthly decline in June. Prices of energy commodities declined 2.9% m/m in July with the seasonally adjusted price of gasoline also falling 2.9% m/m while prices of energy services rose 0.3% m/m. Prices of goods other than energy increased 0.2% m/m (0.8% y/y) after 0.1% monthly declines in both May and June. Prices of services excluding energy also increased 0.2% m/m (3.0% y/y) after having been unchanged in June. Food prices edged up 0.1% m/m (3.0% y/y) in July, the smallest monthly increase in four months, down from 0.2% m/m in June.

There was a whole laundry list of price declines in June that held down the core index that many analysts felt were unsustainable. Consequently, how much these prices rebounded in July was thought to be key to the overall July outcome. Indeed, most of the declines highlighted in June were reversed in July but only modestly. The price of cell phone service plunged 3.3% m/m in June but rose 0.6% m/m in July. Apparel prices fell 0.6% m/m in June but edged up 0.1% m/m in July. Prices of medical care services slipped 0.1% m/m in June but rose 0.6% m/m in July. Used vehicle prices, which declined 0.2% m/m in June, rebounded 0.4% m/m in July. In contrast, hotel prices dropped 2.8% m/m in June and declined 3.3% m/m in July. Prices of vehicle insurance decreased 2.0% m/m in June and added a 0.3% m/m decline in July.

The second consecutive outsized decline in hotel prices held down the rise in shelter costs in July, which increased just 0.1% m/m (3.2% y/y), the same monthly gain as in June. Still, this modest rise in shelter costs accounted for 2/3 of the monthly increase in the overall CPI. However, rent and owners’ equivalent rent were not as tame as overall shelter costs. Rent of primary residence increased 0.3% m/m (2.9% y/y) following a 0.1% monthly increase in June. Owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.3% m/m (3.2% y/y) versus a 0.2% monthly gain in June.

CPI services prices less energy services and the two rent measures is a relatively new core measure that is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve. It increased 0.2% m/m in July after having fallen 0.2% m/m in June with the y/y rate declining to 2.8% from 3.1% in June. Somewhat encouraging, the July y/y reading is almost at the top of the range in which this measure fluctuated prior to the pandemic.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- The headline CPI increased 0.1% m/m in July with the core index rising 0.2% m/m, both in line with expectations.
- Y/Y rates for each index edged down 0.1%-point.
- Seasonally adjusted energy prices fell for the second consecutive month.
- Shelter prices rose only 0.1% m/m, but this was mostly due to a 3.3% m/m decline in hotel prices.

U.S. CPI in Line with Expectations in July

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications rose 3.6% w/w (-11.6% y/y) in the week ending August 7 after declining by 2.9% w/w (-5.3% y/y) in the week ending July 31, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house rose 2.5% (-1.4% y/y) in the latest week following a decline of 3.6% w/w (-2.5% y/y) in the prior week.  Applications for loan refinancing rose 5.0% w/w (-22.2% y/y) in the August 7 week after a decline of 1.9% w/w (-8.8% y/y) in the July 31 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged down 3bps to 6.96% in the week ending August 7 from 6.99% in the week ending July 31, still remaining at levels not seen since July/August 2025. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages inched up 1bp to 6.33% in the August 7 week from 6.32% in the July 31 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate edged down 4ps to 6.83% in the latest week from 6.87% in the July 31 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM declined by 10bps to 6.30% in the August 7 week from 6.40% in the July 31 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 40.7% of total applications in the week of August 7 from 39.9% in the week ending July 31. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity stayed unchanged at 7.9% in the latest week from the July 31 week.

The average size of a mortgage edged down 0.7% w/w (-4.9% y/y) to $379,300 in the week ending August 7 after declining 0.8% w/w (+0.1% y/y) to $381,800 in the week ending July 31. The average size of a purchase loan inched down 0.2% w/w (+3.4% y/y) to $441,300 in the August 7 week after declining 0.7% w/w (+2.3% y/y) to $442,100 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 0.7% w/w (-21.1% y/y) in the August 7 week to $289,200 following a slight decline of 0.2% w/w (-6.0% y/y) to $291,100 in the July 31 week. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing rose in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans edged down 3bps to 6.96%, still at levels not seen since July/August 2025.
- Average loan size edged down.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose in the August 7 Week

Robert Brusca

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Inflation in Italy rose 0.1% in July after being flat in June and rising 0.3% in May. The core HICP was not quite so lucky, rising 0.3% in July after declining 0.2% in June and rising 0.4% in May. The domestic inflation data from Italy show the headline rising 0.1% in July, flat in June, and rising 0.4% in May. The Italian core on its domestic measure rose 0.3% in July, was flat in June, and rose 0.3% in May.

HICP inflation has gotten unruly in Italy, rising 2.9% over 12 months, accelerating to a 5.2% annual rate over six months but then rising by only 1.6% at an annual rate over three months. Core inflation remains much better behaved but has seen some increasing pressure, rising 1.5% over 12 months, posting a 1.4% annual rate over six months, and rising at a 2% annual rate over three months.

The domestic measures of inflation show the headline is quite similar to the HICP headline, rising 2.9% over 12 months, accelerating to a 5.7% annual rate over six months, and posting a 2% annual rate over three months. The Italian core rate, however, accelerates steadily from 1.6% over 12 months to 2.2% annualized over six months and to 2.4% annualized over three months. It's not a terrible ramping up, but it is an acceleration; it takes the Italian core to a level above what the ECB projects as its target for the euro area as a whole.

Inflation diffusion in Italy over three months, six months, and 12 months is relatively well behaved at 53.8% over 12 months and over six months. There's a modest tendency to have more acceleration than deceleration; however, over three months the diffusion measure falls to 46.2%, indicating net deceleration. The net deceleration over three months is reassuring, with moderate three-month inflation rates having been posted on the various metrics cited above. However, even the slight acceleration tendencies are a little more disturbing, with the high headline inflation posted over six months and uncomfortably high near a 3% pace over 12 months.

On a quarter-to-date basis, inflation in the third quarter is off to a slow start, at 1.2% for the HICP and 1.4% for the domestic measure. Both the HICP and the domestic measures show core inflation higher at 1.8% for the HICP and at a 2.4% annual rate for the domestic metric.

The inflation problem in Italy isn't simply something that comes because of oil. Year-over-year, the headline for the HICP and the domestic measure are both under 2% in the quarter to date (QTD). But both measures are running at or above 2% in most of the sequential developments of inflation from 12 months to six months to three months. Core inflation is showing pressure for both the HICP and domestic measures sequentially as well as QTD. The Italian inflation report for July by itself is not so good as the monthly headline is well-behaved, but the cores are uncomfortable in both the HICP and domestic measures. Inflation clearly is not dead. It remains something to keep an eye on even in Italy where inflation trends had been better behaved.

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Italy

Italian Inflation Gets Prickly

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Existing home sales fell 1.7% m/m (+0.7% y/y) to 4.06 million units at an annual rate in July after a downwardly revised 1.4% monthly decline in June (previously -2.4% m/m), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The July level of sales was the lowest in three months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.0% m/m decline in July. The interest rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continued its ascent in July, rising to 6.89% from 6.78% in June. This rate has risen 59 basis points since its recent low in February, a rise that continues to restrain home sales. The sales figures are based on closings of sales contracts signed over the past couple of months.

Sales of existing single-family homes fell 1.9% m/m (+0.8% y/y) in July on top of a 1.6% monthly decline in June. Sales of condos and co-ops were unchanged in July from June and also unchanged from a year ago.

Regionally, monthly sales increased in the Northeast (2.0% m/m, the third consecutive monthly increase), were unchanged in the West, and declined in the Midwest (-2.0% m/m) and South (-3.1% m/m). Year-over-year sales rose in the Midwest (2.1% y/y) and West (1.4% y/y) and were unchanged in the Northeast and South.

The nationwide median sales price fell 2.0% m/m NSA (+2.0% y/y) to $434,100 in July. After trending down during 2025, the y/y rate of advance of the median price has trended up slightly so far in 2026. The median sales prices of single-family home declined 1.9% m/m NSA (+1.9% y/y) in July while the median price of a condo/co-op fell 2.7% m/m NSA (+2.2% y/y). Regionally, the median sales price declined in all four major regions in July from June but rose from a year ago in each region.

There were 1.54 million homes NSA available for sale at the end of July, down 1.9% from June and 0.6% from a year ago. At the current selling pace, this level amounted to 4.6 months of unsold inventory, unchanged from both last month and July 2025.

The Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index edged up to 103.3 in July from 101.8 in June but is still well below the recent peak of 116.5 reached in January. Housing affordability slipped slightly in the Northeast but rose in the Midwest, South and West in July from June. The affordability index measures whether a median income family income qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced single-family home. Rising values above 100 indicate that more buyers can afford this mortgage.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total sales fell 1.7% m/m to 4.06 million units at an annual rate in July after a 1.4% monthly decline in June but were up 0.7% from a year ago.
- Monthly sales increased in the Northeast, held steady in the West, and declined in the Midwest and South.
- Year-over-year sales rose in the Midwest and West and were unchanged in the Northeast and South.
- The median sales price fell 2.0% m/m NSA in July but rose 2.0% from a year ago.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell Again in July

Winnie Tapasanun

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 99.8 in July after a 2.1-point rebound to 97.4 in June, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey from the National Federation of Independent Business, indicating small business sentiment improved to the highest level since August 2025. The index was above its 52-year average of 98.0 for the first time since February and above a low of 88.5 in March 2024, albeit below 100.3 in July 2025 and a peak of 105.1 in December 2024. Eight of the 10 index components rose, while two fell. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index improved to 91 in July following a two-point decline to 89 in June, remaining well above its historical average of 68. The index was up from its recent low of 84 in December 2025 and a low of 65 in November 2023, while below its record high of 110 in October 2024.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months remained positive for the 21st straight month in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve increased to 15% in July, a five-month high, following a 10-point recovery to 13% in June; these readings were far below a high of 52% in December 2024 but significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales declined to a net 7% in July from a five-month high of 9% in June; the latest figure was below a high of 22% in December 2024 but above a low of -18% in August 2024. A net -4% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, unchanged from June; the latest result remained above a low of -20% in October 2024 but below the recent positive reading of 1% in February and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to expand the business advanced to 12% in July, a five-month high, from 8% in June; the latest figure was down from a high of 20% in December 2024 but up from a low of 2% in March 2023. Plans to make capital outlays rose to 25% in July, the highest reading since December 2024, from 20% in June; these numbers were still below a high of 28% in November 2024 and a peak of 31% in October 2021. Expected credit conditions edged up to -4% in July from -5% in June; this result was slightly below a high of -2% in December 2024 but above a low of -11% in November 2023. Meanwhile, a net -2% of respondents viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in July, down from 0% in June (matching the highest reading since August 2025); the positive reading of 1% was recorded in May 2025.

On the labor front, 51% of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in July, unchanged from June and registering the highest level since September 2024. These numbers were above a low of 43% in August 2025 but below a high of 56% in August 2024 and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 20% planned to increase employment in July, up from 11% in June and matching the highest level since October 2022; it remained above a low of 11% in March 2024 but below a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 36% reported positions not able to be filled in July, up from 32% in June and matching the highest reading since June 2025; these figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The measure increased to -16% in July following a five-point decline to -20% in June. These readings were below the most recent high of -14% in February and a high of -5% in June 2021 but above a low of -37% in August 2024.

On the pricing front, actual and expected selling prices remained at an inflationary level, indicating continued inflationary pressures, albeit at slower rising paces. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices fell to a still-elevated 31% in July, the lowest level since April and the first m/m decline since February, after a two-point increase to 38% in June. The latest reading was up from a low of 20% in August 2024 but well below a peak of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices eased to 28% in July, a three-month low, following a two-point decline to 32% in June; these readings remained above a low of 21% in April 2023.

Wage inflation remained relatively high in the July survey. A net 31% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, up from 28% in June and equaling May’s reading. It was above a low of 26% in November 2025 but below a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 19% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, up from 17% in June and registering the highest level since February; this remained below highs of 28% in November 2024, 30% in November 2023, and 32% in October 2022.

Labor quality was cited as the single most important problem facing small businesses, as reported by 27% of NFIB members in July, up from 19% in June and matching the highest since October 2025. Taxes ranked second as the next most important problem, as reported by 16% of respondents in July, down from 19% in June and May and representing the lowest since November 2025. Inflation also remained a key challenge for small businesses, as reported by 14% of respondents in July, matching the lowest since March, compared to 21% in May (the highest since October 2024); these readings were well below a peak of 37% in July 2022. Other concerns (in July vs. June) included labor costs (8% vs. 8%), insurance cost/availability (8% vs. 8%), poor sales (8% vs. 7%), government requirements (7% vs. 8%), and competition from large businesses (7% vs. 5%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- NFIB Small Business Optimism Idx up 2.4 pts. to 99.8 in July, above its 52-year avg. of 98.0.
- Uncertainty Idx up 2 pts. to 91, well above the historical avg. of 68.
- Expectations for economy up 2 pts. to 15%, highest since Feb.
- Expected real sales down 2 pts. to 7% from June’s five-month high.
- Plans to expand business up 4 pts. to 12%, a five-month high.
- Hiring plans up 9 pts. to 20%, highest since Oct. ’22.
- Firms raising avg. selling prices down 7 pts. to 31%, a three-month low.
- Top three business concerns: labor quality (27%), taxes (16%), and inflation (14%).

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Climbs in July to an 11-Month High

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