Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

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All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

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DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 73,000 during July after rising 14,000 in June, revised from 147,000, and 19,000 in May, revised from 144,000. Expectations had been for a 102,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average change in payrolls of 35,000 compared to 64,000 in June. The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates.

Average hourly earnings rose an expected 0.3% during July after unrevised gains of 0.2% and 0.4% in June & May. Earnings growth of 3.9% y/y is little changed over twelve months, but has been trending lower from its 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, edged up m/m to an expected 4.2% from 4.1% and compared to 4.2% in the previous three months. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, rose to 7.9% last month from 7.7% In June. It was 6.6% in April 2023.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment in July rose 83,000, factory sector jobs declined 11,000, off for the third straight month. Construction sector employment increased 2,000, after rising 3,000 in June. The number of mining & logging industry jobs declined 4,000 after falling in both of the prior two months. 

Private service sector employment increased 96,000 July after improving 16,000 in June. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 79,000 last month, following a 52,000 increase in June. The number of trade, transportation & utilities jobs gained 11,000, following a 22,000 decline and financial activities employment improved 15,000 after a 2,000 drop, while leisure & hospitality employment rose just 5,000 after a 4,000 gain. The number of professional & business services jobs fell 14,000, down for the third straight month.  Information sector employment fell 2,000, after holding steady in June.

Government sector payrolls declined 10,000 last month and revered June’s 11,000 rise. Federal government employment weakened 12,000 and has fallen for six straight months. Local government employment eased 3,000 after rising 10,000 in June while state government payrolls rose 5,000 after increasing 10,000.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y) in July. Earnings in the goods-producing sector edged up 0.1% (3.6% y/y). In construction, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) following a 0.4% rise, but factory sector earnings eased 0.1% (+3.6% y/y). In the service sector, earnings rose 0.4% (4.0% y/y) in July after increasing 0.2% in June.

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The length of the average workweek rose to 34.3 hours in July from 34.2 hours in June. The workweek in the goods-producing sector lengthened to 39.9 hours from 39.7 hours. The construction sector average workweek rose to 39.1 hours from 38.9 while the factory sector workweek held steady at 40.1 hours. The average workweek in the private service sector edged up to 33.2 hours from 33.1 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% in July after falling to 4.1% as employment fell 260,000 after rising 93,000 in June and the size of the labor force declined 38,000, off for the third straight month. The labor force participation rate eased to 62.2% last month from 62.3% and remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers declined to 35.0%, after plunging to 35.1%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate declined to 70.9%. For workers aged 25-54, the participation rate eased to 83.4%. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved slightly to 38.1% but remained near a 20-year low of 38.0% in June.

The employment/population ratio for all workers slipped to 59.6% last month. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic. For men, the rate fell to 64.7% in July from 64.9% and for women, the rate eased to 54.7% from 54.8% in June.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Recent job growth reduced by fewer factory & government jobs.
- Earnings gain remains steady y/y.
- Jobless rate reverses June decline.

U.S. Employment Report Shows Weakness in July, While Revisions Reduce Earlier Gains; Jobless Rate Picks Up

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U.S. light vehicle sales increased 7.6% (6.0% y/y) to 16.87 million units (SAAR) in July after falling 0.3% to 15.68 million units in June. The gain followed three straight months of decline. The improvement in July vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through June, which compared to 2.1% growth last year.

Increases in sales were broad-based last month. Light truck sales rose 7.7% (10.0% y/y) in July to 14.02 million units, after easing 0.2% to 13.02 million in June and weakening 8.7% in May to 13.04 million. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks improved 7.1% (12.0% y/y) to 10.79 million units, after falling 1.0% in June to 10.07 million. Sales of imported light trucks rose 9.8% (3.8% y/y) to 3.24 million units, following a 3.9% rise in June.

Trucks’ record 83.1% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 83.0% in June and 80.1% in July of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales rose 6.4% last month, down 9.8% y/y, to 2.84 million units (SAAR) following a 0.4% June decline. Purchases of domestically-produced cars rebounded 10.1% (-6.4% y/y) last month to 2.18 million units, after declining 2.5% in June. Sales of imported autos fell 2.9% (-20.5% y/y) to 0.66 million units, after a 4.6% June gain.

Imports' 23.1% share of the U.S. light vehicle market edged down from 23.2% in June. These compare to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market fell to 23.2% last month and compared to 26.4% in July of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market rose to 23.1% last month after rising to 22.7% in June.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

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- Both light truck and auto sales recover.
- Domestic and imports each increase.
- Imports' market share steadies.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Rebound in July

Winnie Tapasanun

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The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0 in July from 49.0 in June and 48.5 in May, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The July manufacturing PMI, below the 50 expansion-contraction dividing line, indicated that the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth consecutive month and to the lowest level since October 2024. The July reading, while slightly higher than a low of 46.9 in October and 47.0 in July of last year, was below its recent high of 50.9 in January and a peak of 63.8 in March 2021. A reading of 49.5 for July had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The production index rose to 51.4 in July after rising to 50.3 in June, suggesting production expanded for the second successive month and to the highest level since January; it was up from its most recent low of 44.0 in April but slightly below a high of 53.7 in March 2024. Twenty percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher production in July while 19.2% reported lower.

The new orders index increased to 47.1 in July after falling to 46.4 in June, indicating new orders contracted for the sixth straight month but at a slightly less severe pace. The Index, while below its recent high of 55.1 in January, was up from a low of 42.7 in January 2023. Nearly nineteen percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders in July while 25.9% reported declines. The inventories index, however, fell to 48.9 in July after rising to 49.2 in June, showing inventories contracted for the third consecutive month. The index was down from its recent high of 53.4 in March and a high of 56.5 in July 2022. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index fell to 49.3 in July from 54.2 in June, indicating faster delivery performance following seven straight months in slower territory. An 8.7% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds in July while an increased 10.2% reported faster speeds.

On the labor front, the employment index fell to 43.4 in July after falling to 45.0 in June, indicating employment contracted for the sixth straight month and to the lowest level since June 2020. The index was down from its recent high of 50.3 in January and a high of 56.5 in March 2022. A 12.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment in July while an increased 25.0% reported less hiring.

On the pricing front, the prices paid index declined to 64.8 (NSA) in July after rising to 69.7 in June, indicating raw materials prices rose for the 10th straight month but at the slowest rising rate since February. The July index remained well above a low of 39.4 in December 2022 but meaningfully below a high of 87.1 in March 2022 and a peak of 92.1 in June 2021. A decreased 35.4% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices in July while 5.8% reported price declines.

In other ISM series not included in the composite index, the new export orders index slipped to 46.1 in July after increasing to 46.3 in June, indicating new export orders contracted for the fifth straight month. It was down from its recent high of 52.4 in January and a high of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index edged up to 47.6 in July after rising to 47.4 in June, remaining at a contraction level for the fourth consecutive month; it was down from its recent high of 52.6 in February and a high of 55.4 in February 2022. The order backlog index increased to 46.8 (NSA) in July after declining to 44.3 in June, indicating falling backlog levels since October 2022. It was up from a low of 37.5 in May 2023 but down from a peak of 70.6 in May 2021.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- 48.0 in July vs. 49.0 in June; the fifth consecutive month of contraction.
- Production (51.4) expands to a six-month high.
- New orders (47.1) contract for the sixth successive month.
- Employment (43.4) contracts to the lowest level since June ’20.
- Prices Index (64.8) indicates prices rise for the 10th straight month; exports & imports contracting.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Contracts in July to a Nine-Month Low

Michael J. Moran

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Total construction activity fell 0.4 percent in June, continuing a soft trend that began in the middle of last year. After peaking in May 2024, total outlays have declined 3.6%. The retreat was modest at first, but the softness began to intensify last fall. Activity has now declined in nine of the past ten months, with the drop over this span totaling 3.1%. The private sector accounts for nearly all of the softness, with both residential and nonresidential contributing; public construction has continued to advance, although gains in recent months have been modest.

Private residential construction fell 0.7% in June, marking the 12th decline in the past 13 months and leaving activity 7.3% below the peak in May 2024. Hints of softness in private residential construction first appeared in mid-2023, when multi-family construction first stalled and then moved notably downward throughout 2024. Following the swoon in 2024, multi-family activity has stabilized in recent months.

However, single family building has taken the lead in pulling activity lower, declining for four consecutive months with pronounced retreats in the past three (average of -1.8%). Prospects for single-family construction do not seem bright, as the ups and downs in single-family housing starts have left little net growth in the past year; the past four months have been especially soft.

Improvements to existing structures contributed to weakness with sharp declines early in the year, but this area has posted small gains in the past three months. Home improvements (i.e. additions and renovations) should not be ignored in assessing residential construction, as they typically represent 35 to 40 percent of private activity.

Private nonresidential construction fell 0.3 percent in June, reinforcing the downward drift that has been in place since the start of 2024. This sector has posted 11 declines in the past 18 months. While activity grew in several months over this span, most of the increases were minuscule. The net effect of the ups and downs was a drop of 6.6% (annual rate of 4.4%). Total nonresidential activity has several components, and some have advanced in the past year or so, but none has posted an impressive performance. Two areas, lodging (hotel, motels, resorts) and commercial (retail and wholesale), have been notably soft.

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The public sector has started to sputter after two years of strong activity. Building was vigorous in 2023, growing 21.8% (December to December), and activity advanced an additional 2.4% in 2024. Growth so far this year has been modest on balance. Most months have registered gains, but they offset declines in the closing months of last year by only a small margin. Activity in June was 0.1% above the reading in October (the high point in 2024). Both state and Local governments and the federal sector have posted similar performances: robust in 2023, moderate in 2024, and hesitating this year.

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

- Private building, both residential and nonresidential, drifting lower.
- Public construction hesitating after two strong years.

U.S. Construction: Sluggish in June

Robert Brusca

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Manufacturing PMIs in the S&P framework were mixed in July. However, the median reading edged slightly higher rising to 48.6 in July from 48.5 in June. But both of these are significantly weaker than the 49.1 reading in May. Manufacturing continues to post PMI readings that are below 50 indicating sector contraction on a fairly broad basis in July among the 17 reporting countries in the table plus the euro area. Only India and Vietnam reported PMI readings above 50 indicating sector expansion in July. In June, three of these jurisdictions showed readings above 50; in May, only three had readings above 50 as well. It remains a difficult time for manufacturing globally.

The readings for the manufacturing PMIs also show slippage in the medians from 12-months to six-months to three-months. The 12-month median is 49.2, the six-month median at 48.8, and the three-month median at 48.7. The bottom line is that most manufacturing sectors show contraction, and the contractions are generally getting slightly worse.

However, on an individual basis over three months about two-thirds of the reporters showed an improvement. Over six months just under 40% showed improvement and over a year about 44% of them showed improvement compared to the year before. Only the three-month versus six-month comparison shows a majority of reporters indicating better performance in July.

The ranked or queue standings metrics that place these individual readings for July in their queue of data over the last 4 ½ years, show standings above 50% which put the individual readings above their medians for this period. And only six of these eighteen reporting jurisdictions sported readings above 50%. Those were for the euro area, Germany, France, and India. India has a rating well above 50% at its 96th percentile; Malaysia has a reading above 50% and Vietnam has a reading well above 50% at its 74th percentile.

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The global economy has been put through the ringer with shocks from a war in Ukraine, stepped up military action in the Middle East, threats in the Straits of Hormuz, and an aggressive tariff policy from the United States, affecting global trade- a significant factor for manufacturing. These events have wrong-footed manufacturing globally. During this period, the inflation threat has dissipated; however, in most countries, inflation still slightly overshoots its target where central banks have such targets.

The U.S. has a particularly large number of policy changes afoot. Its manufacturing sector is still struggling. And recent employment data there indicate what appears to be a broader slowdown in the economy. Job growth in the U.S. has slowed and U.S. trends now show consumer spending slowing along with weaker and downwardly revised job growth. Put together, these are signals to watch closely.

Manufacturing PMIs Rank Low and Show Ongoing Weakness

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Nonresidential Construction by State & Census Region (2024)

Construction (Jun), Employment Situation (Jul)

India, Netherlands, Pakistan, Russia, Romania, Poland, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Spain, Czechia, Italy, France, Euro Area, European Union, Greece, UK, Brazil, US, Canada, Global, Mexico, Colombia (Jul)

GDP by Industry, Payroll Employment, Earnings & Hours (May)

PPI, Construction Material Price Indexes (Jun)