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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications dropped 6.4% w/w (+0.6% y/y) in the week ending July 24, after rising 1.9% w/w (3.3% y/y) in the week ending July 17, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 3.6% w/w (+2.7% y/y) in the latest week, after rising 5.5% w/w (0.4% y/y) in the July 17 week.  Applications for loan refinancing plummeted another 9.9% w/w (-2.2% y/y) in the July 24 week, following a decline of 2.4% w/w (+7.3% y/y) in the week ending July 17.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 9bps to 6.96% in the week ending July 24 from 6.87% in the week ending July 17. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 10bps to 6.36% in the July 24 week from 6.26% in the July 17 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate jumped 28bps to 6.85% in the latest week after dropping 20bps to 6.57% in the July 17 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose 6bps to 6.44% in the July 24 week from 6.38% in the July 17 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan declined to 39.5% of total applications in the week of July 24 from 41.2% in the July 17 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.1% in the July 24 week from 7.7% in the July 17 week.

The average size of a mortgage edged up 0.3% w/w (2.8% y/y) to $384,700 in the week of July 24, after rising 1.1% w/w to $383,700 in the week ending July 17. The average size of a purchase loan edged up 0.4% w/w (3.8% y/y) to $445,400 in the July 24 week, after rising 0.4% w/w to $443,800 in the July 17 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 2.0% w/w (-0.9% y/y) to $291,800 in the week ended July 24, following a small rise of 0.2% w/w to $297,900 in the week ending July 17. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose 9bps to 6.96%. 
- Average loan size edged up.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Declined in the July 24 Week

Sandy Batten

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The Conference Board’s index of Consumer Confidence fell 1.4 points to 90.8 in July from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June (previously 91.2). The overall index has generally trended down from a reading of 112.8 in November 2024. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a reading of 92.3 in July. The July decline was due entirely to a gloomier view of present conditions. The Present Situation index fell to 114.9 in July from 118.5 in June, the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since February 2021. By contrast, the Expectations index was unchanged at 74.7. The survey period for today’s report was July 1-22.

The pessimism over the state of the economy was markedly larger in the under 35 years age group with confidence dropping to 100.7 in July, the lowest reading since January 2021, from 114.1 in June. Confidence also fell in the over 55 years age group, but by much less, slipping to 76.8 from 79.7. By contrast, confidence in the 35-55 years age group jumped up to 97.6 from 90.4 in June, the highest reading since last October.

Notwithstanding the breakdown of the Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran during July, inflation expectations for the year ahead fell for the third consecutive month to 4.5% in July from 4.9% in June and 5.3% in April, which had reflected the initial escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Inflation expectations had soared to a recent high of 5.9% in April 2025 after significant tariff increases were announced. Prior to the pandemic, inflation expectations were generally around 4%.

Assessment of labor market conditions softened further in July as indicated by a further decline in the labor market differential (the percentage of respondents who think that jobs are plentiful minus the percentage who think that jobs are hard to get). Respondents still have a slightly favorable view of the labor market as the percentage thinking jobs are plentiful (24.6%) still exceeds the percentage thinking that jobs are hard to get (21.5%). However, that differential slumped to 3.1% in July from 3.8% in June and 5.0% in May. This was the lowest reading since February 2021. The correlation between the labor market differential and the BLS’s unemployment rate over the past 15 years has been -0.78. Thus, the recent decline in the labor market differential points to increases in the overall unemployment rate.

Respondents generally felt that business conditions had deteriorated in July with the percentage considering conditions to be good falling to 18.9% from 20.2% in June while the percentage considering conditions to be bad increasing to 17.8% from 16.5% in June. Furthermore, the respondents expressed similar feelings about the coming six months with the percentage expecting business conditions to improve falling to 17.8% from 18.9% in June while the percentage expecting conditions to worsen rose to 21.1% from 20.7%.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence fell to 90.8 in July from 92.2 in June, continuing its downtrend since early last year.
- The Present Situation index fell to 114.9, its lowest reading since February 2021. The Expectations index was unchanged at 74.7.
- Inflation expectations one year ahead fell to 4.5% in July from 4.9%.
- The labor market differential fell to 3.1% in July, its lowest level since February 2021, from 3.8%, pointing to further softening of labor market conditions.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Continues Downtrend in July

Winnie Tapasanun

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The U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to a larger-than-expected $101.46 billion in June after widening to $105.89 billion in May (the largest since March 2025), according to the advance estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau. The June reading marked the second narrowing in the goods trade deficit in three months, still exceeding an $84.17 billion shortfall in June 2025. A deficit of $99.0 billion for June had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a low of $61.44 billion in October 2025 (the smallest since February 2020) and a record high of $158.73 billion in March 2025. On a quarterly basis, the deficit averaged $96.53 billion in Q2'26, the largest since Q1'25, versus $81.96 billion in Q1'26.

Total goods exports declined 1.8% m/m (+14.8% y/y) to $204.70 billion in June, the lowest level since January, following a 5.3% drop to $208.50 billion in May and a 4.1% gain to a record-high $220.11 billion in April. However, exports were up 25.9% from a June 2023 low. The m/m decline in exports in June reflected drops of 4.4% (+31.3% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 3.1% (+11.5% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, 2.8% (+12.3% y/y) in other goods, and 1.1% (+10.9% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos. To the upside, exports of automotive vehicles & parts (+5.1%; -0.5% y/y) and nonfood consumer goods excluding autos (+3.2%; -7.2% y/y) rose m/m in June.

Total goods imports fell 2.6% m/m (+16.6% y/y) to $306.17 billion in June, the first monthly fall since January, after a 4.0% rise to $314.40 billion in May (the highest level since the March 2025 record high of $340.11 billion). Nevertheless, imports were up 22.1% from a March 2023 low. The m/m fall in imports in June was broad-based across all end-use categories, led by a 6.3% drop (+16.3% y/y) in other goods, followed by declines of 3.8% (-0.3% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 2.5% (+1.9% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, 2.5% (-1.3% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, 2.0% (+37.4% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 1.9% (+15.0% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Deficit: $101.46 bil. in June, down $4.43 bil. (-4.2%) from May’s $105.89 bil.
- Exports -1.8%, second straight m/m decline to a five-month low, driven by a 4.4% drop in exports of industrial supplies & materials.
- Imports -2.6%, first m/m decrease since Jan., w/ all end-use import categories down, led by drops of 6.3% in other goods and 3.8% in nonauto consumer goods.

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows in June from May’s 14-Month High

Robert Brusca

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Household confidence in France improved in July, rising to 86.4 from 84.3 in June. Confidence was last higher in March, and the average for confidence over the last 12 months is 87.7. The July value, despite its climb, is still below that average; confidence is still weak in a historic context. According to data back to 2001, the current confidence metric in July has a 16.2 percentile ranking, an extremely weak reading. The mean of confidence readings back to 2001 is 95.1. The July reading is nearly nine points below that.

**Weak but improved living standards readings**: Living standards in July improved slightly compared to June. The assessment of the last 12 months is -79 compared to -81 previously. However, the 12-month average is a rating of -74; the July reading is still short of that. Looking to the next 12 months, living standards are expected to improve; the reading of -59 in July compares to -65 logged a month ago. It compares to a 12-month average of -61. The expectation for living standards over the next 12 months is higher than it has been on average for the last 12 months, although the reading itself is still quite weak. The standing in its 10th percentile for a current rating at -59 is below its full-period average of -38.

**Fewer unemployment worries**: Unemployment over the next 12 months is expected to be less of a concern, but the reading in July drops to 55 from 61 in June; however, the July reading is still above the 12-month average of 52. The ranking for unemployment concerns has a 72nd percentile standing, putting it in the top third of its historic range of readings.

**Inflation fears drop, comparatively**: Price developments show that over the past 12 months inflation has been a concern, with the July reading falling relative to June to 17 from 22, but this reading is much higher than its 12-month average of +2. However, looking to the next 12 months, the July reading is -33 compared to -15 in June, and it compares to -20 on average over the last 12 months. Inflation expectations are for conditions to show weaker inflation pressures. The ranking of the July reading is at its 44th percentile, below its historic median; the medians on rankings occur at a ranking of 50. Of course, all these readings will be dependent on how oil prices evolve.

**Saving/spending**: Both the favorability and the ability to save improved in July compared to June; both readings in July are above their respective 12-month averages. The rankings of these observations are around their high 90th percentiles; for the favorability to save, the reading is the highest in the whole period back to June 2001. The ability to save is often not a good reading but rather one that reflects consumer defensiveness, and we see that as we move to the next metric, the favorability to make a major purchase. In July, that reading improved to -36 from -38 in June, but it's weaker than its 12-month average of -31.8. In historic context, it's extremely weak and has an 8.3 percentile standing. So, the favorability to make a major purchase is in the lower 10th percentile of all monthly observations back to June 2001, indicating considerable consumer defensiveness.

**Financial situation**: The financial situations over the past 12 months and projected over the next 12 months show slightly improved readings compared to June. The past 12 months reading is weaker than its 12-month average, while the expectation for the next 12 months is the same as its 12-month average. The rankings of the two financial situations are just below their respective 40th percentiles, placing them about 10 percentile points below their historic medians.

**Summing up**
The consumer in France sees some improvement in July, and conditions remain mixed across these various components. But most of the rankings for the components are quite weak, with the exception being concerns about unemployment and the favorability to save, which was a defensive reading. The weighting scheme for this survey gives us a slightly more positive read on the month, but it's clear that the French consumers are still concerned about economic conditions and the future.

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France

French Household Confidence Improves

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New orders for durable goods increased a weaker-than-expected 0.3% m/m in June, the third monthly gain in four months, following an upwardly revised 4.0% decline in May (-4.5% initially) and an 8.5% advance in April (unrevised), according to today’s advance report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 2.1% m/m June increase. The year-on-year rate accelerated to +7.4% in June from -3.0% in May (+10.9% in June 2025), remaining positive since January 2025 except for May. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.6% (11.0% y/y) in June, the 14th straight m/m rise, after a 1.8% increase in May. Durable goods orders excluding defense grew 0.3% (5.7% y/y) following a 4.3% May drop.

The m/m increase in June durable goods orders was driven by a 3.7% m/m rebound in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts, following a 51.1% plunge in May and a 167.4% surge in April. Orders for defense aircraft & parts fell 7.2% (+46.8% y/y), the first m/m decline since January, after gains of 8.9% in May and 2.4% in April. Orders excluding aircraft climbed 0.3% (11.0% y/y), the seventh consecutive m/m rise and the 11th in 12 months, on top of a 1.4% May increase.

Durable goods orders for transportation declined 0.2% (+1.1% y/y) in June following a 13.5% drop in May and two successive m/m gains. In addition to June’s m/m rebound in nondefense aircraft orders and decline in defense aircraft orders, motor vehicles & parts orders slid 0.6% (+10.3% y/y), the first m/m slide since November, after a 1.1% May increase. Orders for computers & electronic products advanced 3.1% (16.7% y/y), the ninth m/m gain in 10 months, building on a 1.2% May rebound. Orders for primary metals rose 1.1% (17.6% y/y), the seventh straight m/m increase, after a 4.2% May gain. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances & components rose 0.9% (6.7% y/y), the fourth consecutive m/m rise, following a 0.2% May increase. Orders for all other durable goods grew 0.2% (3.4% y/y), the 10th straight m/m gain, after a 0.7% May rise. Meanwhile, orders for fabricated metal products fell 0.5% (+10.6% y/y) in June after two successive m/m increases. Machinery orders dipped 0.1% (+14.4% y/y), the first m/m easing since February 2025, following a 2.8% May gain.

Capital goods orders rebounded 1.1% (3.8% y/y) in June, the third m/m rise in four months, following a 13.0% decrease in May. Nondefense capital goods orders rose 1.2% (-1.1% y/y), the second m/m gain in three months, after a 15.3% May drop. Core capital goods orders (i.e., nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft) rose 0.9% (12.5% y/y), the fourth m/m gain in five months, following a 1.9% May recovery. Defense capital goods orders increased 0.5% (31.6% y/y), up for the fourth time in five months, after a 1.6% May decline. Notably, core capital goods shipments (core capex shipments)—a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts—rose 1.9% (9.3% y/y), the ninth m/m rise in 10 months, after a 0.2% May increase.

Shipments of all manufactured goods fell 0.3% (+8.0% y/y) in June, the first m/m fall since November, following a 1.6% gain in May. Durable goods shipments rose 0.7% (9.0% y/y), the seventh straight m/m rise, after a 1.1% May increase. Nondurable goods shipments declined 1.3% (+7.0% y/y), the first m/m decrease in seven months, following a 2.1% May gain.

Unfilled orders of durable goods increased 0.6% (8.2% y/y) in June after a 0.7% rise in May. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.9% (5.3% y/y) following a 1.0% May advance. Both series posted the 11th consecutive m/m increase.

Manufacturing inventories edged up 0.1% (1.8% y/y) in June, the eighth successive m/m gain, after a 0.2% rise in May. Durable goods inventories grew 0.3% (2.2% y/y), the ninth straight m/m increase, after a 0.1% uptick in May. Nondurable goods inventories, however, fell 0.3% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m decline since January, after rising 0.4% in May and April.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- June headline orders +0.3% m/m, third rise in four mths.; +7.4% y/y, positive since Jan. ’25 except for May (-3.0%).
- Nondefense aircraft & parts +3.7% m/m vs. May’s -51.1%; defense aircraft & parts -7.2% m/m, first drop since Jan.
- Transportation orders -0.2%, second consecutive m/m decline; orders ex transp. +0.6%, 14th straight m/m gain.
- Computers & electronic products +3.1%, ninth increase in 10 mths.
- Core capital goods shipments +1.9%, ninth gain in 10 mths., pointing to a moderate contribution to Q2’26 GDP from business equipt. spending.
- Durable goods shipments +0.7%; unfilled orders +0.6%; inventories +0.3%.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound Less Than Expected in June

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