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**The German industrial sector falters**
German industrial output in January fell for the second month in a row; it has a sequential pattern of growth rates becoming progressively weaker from 12-months to six-months to three-months. This is not a good pattern or development. Orders also fell sharply in January, dropping by 11.1% month-to-month. At least the orders progression is not as clearly negative as it is for industrial output, but over three months real manufacturing orders are declining at a 1.8% annual rate even though the 12-month and six-month growth rates of orders still show solid positive growth results.

These data are up-to-date through January, so they do not contain any effects of the new conflict in the Middle East.

**Sequential output trends**
German industrial output trends show progressively weaker numbers from 12-months to six-months to three-months. Consumer goods output and intermediate goods output show progressively weaker sequential results. Capital goods output shows a skinny rise of 0.1% over 12 months, a 6.6% decline at an annual rate over six months, and then a lesser pace of decline of 2.8% over three months. Capital goods output is not getting progressively weaker; however, it has been weakening and the trend is disappointing.

**German survey results are less dire**
Other indicators of German industrial activity generally show improved monthly results. All four of the metrics in the table show improved survey values in January compared to December, but December had showed weakness relative to November across the board for those 4 metrics. The message from progressive averages in the table, from these other indicators, is that not much has changed that would allow us to discriminate strongly among activity performances reported over 12 months, six months, or three months. In the end, the three-month values are generally slightly stronger than the 12-month values, but not in a way that looks significant, and even that result does not hold for the ZEW current index.

**Industrial production in other Europe**
Industrial production trends for other European reporters show declines in output in January of a fairly substantial magnitude in Spain and in Ireland, against strong increases in Portugal, Sweden, and Norway, and the more modest increase in France. IP in January shows cross-currents and a good deal of extremism in other Europe. The progressive trends for manufacturing production show Spanish and Irish trends deteriorating sharply from 12-months to six-months to three-months France and Portugal report uneven results that do not clarify what the underlying trend is doing. However, in northern Europe, Sweden and Norway are showing sharply accelerating growth from 12-months to six-months to three-months.

**Quarter-to-Date (as of January)**
In the quarter to date, German manufacturing output is falling overall and for all its major components. German real manufacturing orders are falling at a 30.3% annual rate in the quarter to date, which is a nascent statistic since only January data are available now. The other industrial indicators show positive trends for most measures, with the IFO manufacturing expectation being the exception, as it weakens. Industrial production for other Europe shows sharp quarter-to-date declines in Spain and Ireland, with extremely strong quarter-to-date results in Sweden and Norway; there is strong performance from Portugal and a solid increase from France.

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**Summing up**
On balance, the industrial production picture for Germany shows a decline, with a drop in orders raising more eyebrows about what the future may have to offer. The industrial surveys are a counterpoint, showing relatively more strength and stability than German IP trends. Meanwhile, the rest of Europe doesn't give us much to go on, because performance there clearly is bifurcated, with trends operating at cross-purposes. The long and the short of it, is that the long-awaited industrial revival in the wake of COVID and the Russian attack on Ukraine, is still not in gear - certainly not in Germany, and not in Europe.

Germany

German Output Trends in January Break Lower

Sandy Batten

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Nonfarm payroll employment (from the survey of establishments) unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February with downward revisions to December and January, according to today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Action Economics Survey expected payrolls to increase by 63,000. The 130,000 monthly increase previously reported for January was revised down to 126,000 while the 48,000 gain previously reported for December was revised down to a 17,000 decline. Over the past three months, nonfarm payrolls have averaged a 6,000 monthly increase. Over the past six months, payrolls have averaged a 1,000 monthly decline. So, clearly labor market conditions have softened.

The meaningfully weaker payroll report was reinforced by a 203,000 increase in the number unemployed from the **household survey**, which led to a 0.1%-point increase in the unemployment rate. The labor force participation rate continued its downtrend by falling to 62.0% in February, the lowest reading December 2021, from 62.1% in January. Household employment fell by 185,000, its first monthly decline since July. Unseasonably cold weather did not appear to be a meaningful factor behind the drop in employment. The survey reported that 228,000 employed workers could not get to work because of the weather. This not seasonally adjusted figure was not unusually high for this time of the year and in fact was about half the size of the figures reported last January and February.

Today’s report contained the annual population adjustments for the household survey figures. These adjustments are usually released with the January figures that are released in February. However, the shutdown of the federal government in October and early November last year delayed that release. As widely expected, the population adjustment this year was extremely large and negative (-1.4 million for the labor force), reflecting the marked decrease in immigration that has occurred over the past year with the changes in immigration policy. Note that this adjustment is only made on 2026 household data. So, any comparison of current household data with that in previous years would be an apples-to-oranges comparison. However, Haver Analytics calculates population-adjusted household data for the major aggregates. They are in the USECON database.

Growth of average hourly earnings (AHE), a key variable for the Federal Reserve, picked up slightly in February. AHE increased 0.4% m/m, slightly above the expected 0.3% monthly gain. The y/y rate of advance edged up to 3.8% in February from 3.7% in January. Wage growth in private service-producing firms was unchanged at 3.7% y/y while goods-producing wage growth rose to 4.2% y/y, the highest rate since May, from 4.0% y/y in January. The current pace of total AHE growth is likely to be still a little too fast to be consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target, although continued solid productivity growth could restrain some of the inflationary impact of the current pace of wage growth.

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In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment fell 86,000 in February, the weakest reading since December 2020. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for an 85,000 increase. Moreover, figures for both December and January were revised lower. The 172,000 increase previously reported for January was revised to 146,000 while the 64,000 rise previously reported for December was revised to a 7,000 decrease. Government employment fell 6,000, the fifth consecutive monthly decline.

Goods-producing employment declined 25,000 in February following a 51,000 jump in January. Construction employment slumped 11,000, likely adversely affected by the unseasonably cold weather, after a surprising 48,000 jump in January. Manufacturing jobs fell 12,000 in February following a 5,000 gain in January. Manufacturing employment fell in each month in 2025, not the result that the Trump Administration new tariff policy had intended. Private service-producing employment fell 61,000, its first monthly decline since last June. Healthcare and social assistance employment, which had previously been a major support for overall employment, fell 18,600 in February, its first monthly decline since January 2022. However, part of the February decrease reflected 31,000 striking nurses in California during the survey period. Monthly declines were widespread across the service-producing sector while any gain was extremely small. Leisure and hospitality employment fell 27,000 in February on top of a 12,000 decline in the previous month.

The length of the workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours in February. Also, aggregate weekly hours were unchanged in February. The goods-producing workweek edged up to 40.1 hours, the highest since January 2023, while the private service-producing workweek was unchanged at 33.2 hours in February.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 in February with downward revisions to both December and January
- Private sector payrolls fell 86,000 in February.
- Average hourly earnings annual growth increased to 3.8% from 3.7% in both December and January.
- Unemployment in the household survey increased 203,000, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4% from 4.3% in January.
- The delayed population adjustment to the household data was a very large negative as had been expected given the observed declines in immigration.

U.S. Employment Unexpectedly Fell in February

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total retail sales fell an expected 0.2% in January after no change in December (unrevised) and a 0.5% rebound in November (+0.6% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed, pointing to a subdued start to Q1 2026. A 0.2% m/m January decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate picked up to 3.2% in January from 2.4% in December (the lowest since September 2024); this compared with 4.5% in January 2025 and remained far below a high of 17.1% in February 2022 and a record-high 51.8% in April 2021.

Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales were virtually unchanged (+3.9% y/y) in January and December following six consecutive m/m gains. A 0.1% m/m January increase had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts fell 0.9% (+0.1% y/y), down for the third time in four months, after a 0.2% December decline; this compared to an 8.9% drop (-3.8% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales after a 2.8% December increase.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.3% (4.9% y/y) in January, the third m/m rise in four months, after being unchanged in December. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials increased 0.2% (4.7% y/y), also up for the third time in four months, following December’s flat reading.

Sales by category showed mixed performance in January. To the downside, gasoline station sales dropped 2.9% (-3.7% y/y) in January after a 0.1% easing in December, marking the third m/m decline in four months and the largest since November 2023. Clothing & accessory store sales fell 1.7% (+3.0% y/y) after a 0.7% December decrease; sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales slid 1.2% (+3.2% y/y) following a 0.5% December slide; and electronics & appliance store sales declined 0.6% (+2.0% y/y) after 0.1% December downtick—all three series posted m/m increases in November and October.

To the upside, miscellaneous store sales rose 2.0% (10.8% y/y) in January, the fourth m/m rise in five months, after no change in December. Nonstore retail sales advanced 1.9% (10.9% y/y), the strongest of four straight m/m gains, after a 0.2% December increase. Furniture & home furnishing store sales rebounded 0.7% (-3.5% y/y), the first m/m rise since October, after a 1.5% December decrease. Building materials & garden equipment store sales rose 0.6% (4.3% y/y), the third consecutive m/m gain, after a 1.2% December increase. General merchandise store sales were up 0.4% (1.5% y/y) in January after virtually unchanged in December and November; within this category, department store sales fell 6.0% (-8.3% y/y), the sharpest of three successive m/m falls, after a 3.9% December decline.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales dropped 3.0% (+2.9% y/y) in January on top of a 0.3% decrease in December, registering the deepest of four straight m/m declines and the fifth in six months. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.2% (1.4% y/y) after a 0.3% December rebound.

Consumers appeared to dine out less frequently in January amid still-high inflation (January CPI +0.2% m/m, +2.4% y/y; core CPI +0.3% m/m, +2.5% y/y). Restaurant & drinking place sales fell 0.2% (+3.9% y/y) in January, the third m/m decline in four months, after falling at the same rate in December (-0.1% initially).

Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total retail sales -0.2% (+3.2% y/y) in Jan.; 0.0% (+2.4% y/y) in Dec.
- Ex-auto sales flat for a second month (+3.9% y/y); auto sales -0.9% (+0.1% y/y), third m/m fall in four months.
- Declines m/m: gasoline stations (-2.9%), clothing stores (-1.7%), sporting goods (-1.2%), electronics stores (-0.6%).
- Gains m/m: misc. stores (+2.0%), nonstore sales (+1.9%), furniture stores (+0.7%), bldg. materials (+0.6%).

U.S. Retail Sales Decline in January After Flat December

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Industrial output in Norway rose by 1% in January after gaining 0.9% in December. Utilities output rose briskly, mining and quarrying output rose extremely sharply, while manufacturing output showed its second decline in a row.

The sequential growth rates show that the headline series for industrial production is decelerating, with nearly 7% growth over 12 months, nearly 5% growth over six months, and the growth over three months is down to zero.

On that same progression, utilities output has accelerated from 12 months to six months to three months, while mining and quarrying has a more complicated pattern—rising 1.5% over 12 month, falling at a 3.8% pace over six months, then rising at a 9.2% annual rate over three months.

In manufacturing, the trends are also complicated but with an upbeat ending. Manufacturing output is up by 2.2% over 12 months; the growth rate shows a decline, falling at a 0.4% annual rate over six months, with output then picking up and growing at a 5.9% annual rate over three months. Despite the setback in the middle, manufacturing has a positive year-over-year growth rate and shows strength over three months. This pattern is followed by food and also by textiles, with the exception that textiles are still showing a year-over-year decline of 0.9%. However, textile output is now growing briskly at a 7.4% annual rate over three months.

Norway is also experiencing a pickup in inflation. Its HICP inflation rate is 3.5% over 12 months, stays pretty much there with a 3.4% annual rate over six months, and then jumps up to a 4.9% annual rate over three months. However, that acceleration is tempered by a core inflation rate that is unchanged at 3.2% in each horizon. These growth rates are still excessive, with the central bank having a target of 2%; however, the inflation rate isn't getting any worse.

The industrial pattern for Norway is somewhat complicated by the fact that the headline measure for industrial production is showing a clear deceleration, while manufacturing is showing a more complicated pattern with some near-term acceleration over three months.

And for the quarter to date, which is a nascent comparison since the data are only available through January, we have overall industrial production growing at a 2.7% annual rate and manufacturing growing at a 2.2% annual rate. The quarter also shows inflation flying at a 3.9% annual rate, although core inflation is more tempered at a 2.6% annual rate pace.

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**Policy Choices**
Norway's policy choices are a little bit complicated, with inflation being undesirable, manufacturing showing growth pushing ahead but perhaps not in a strong enough fashion to be dependable, while overall industrial output is showing a tendency to slip. With global economic conditions being touch and go given the new developments in the Middle East and a likely push-up in inflation from oil prices, it will be important to watch the central bank and see what choices it makes—and whether it thinks it can look through the oil price increase that we're going to experience or whether it's time to put the hammer down on inflation.

Norway

Norway: Output Advances in January

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Nonfarm business productivity (output per hour) continued its robust rise in Q4, increasing 2.8% q/q SAAR following an upwardly revised 5.2% quarterly jump in Q3 (previously 4.9%). A quarterly gain of 1.9% was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Compared to a year ago, productivity rose 2.8% in Q3, up from an upwardly revised 2.4% in Q3 (previously 1.9%). The January employment report contained meaningful downward revisions to employment (and hours) in 2024 and 2025. However, there were no significant revisions to output, meaning that productivity growth was generally revised higher. Since productivity growth began to accelerate at the beginning of 2023, it has grown at a well above trend 2.8% annual rate. Strong productivity is a key factor for boosting real incomes and restraining inflation pressures.

Nonfarm business output increased 2.6% q/q in Q4 on top of unrevised gains of 5.4% q/q in Q3 and 5.2% quarterly in Q2 while hours worked edged down 0.2% q/q in Q4, the first quarterly decline since Q4 2023, versus a 0.2% quarterly increase in Q3 (previously 0.5% q/q). Compensation growth picked up to 5.7% q/q in Q4 from an upwardly revised 3.3% in Q3 (previously 2.9% q/q) in Q3. Compared to a year ago, compensation growth picked up to 4.1% in Q4 from 3.8% in Q3. Accordingly, with the slowdown in productivity and pickup in compensation, unit labor costs increased 2.8% q/q after quarterly decreases of 1.8% and 2.9% in Q3 and Q2, respectively. Compared to a year ago, unit labor cost growth was unchanged at 1.3%, the smallest annual gain since Q3 2023.

Factory output fell 2.2% q/q SAAR in Q4, its first quarterly decline in a year, following a slightly downwardly revised 2.9% in Q3 (previously 3.0%). Hours worked fell 0.3% in Q4, the sixth consecutive quarterly decline, following a 0.6% q/q decline in Q3. Consequently, factory productivity slumped 1.9% q/q, its first quarterly decline since Q3 2024, after having posted solid gains of 3.6% in Q3, 3.2% in Q2 and 4.6% in Q1. Factory compensation growth picked up to 6.4% q/q on top of a 4.8% quarterly jump in Q3. The combination of a decline in productivity and a meaningful rise in compensation led to an 8.3% quarterly surge in manufacturing unit labor costs in Q4, the largest quarterly increase since Q3 2022.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Nonfarm business output per hour rose 2.8% q/q SAAR in Q4 on top of an upward revision to Q3.
- Compensation jumped 5.7% q/q in Q4 resulting in a 2.8% quarterly increase in unit labor costs.

U.S. Productivity Increases More than Expected in Q4

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IP, Monthly GDP, Production Value Index, Industrial Turnover, Household Consumption (Jan)

New Orders, IP, Turnover (Jan), Productivity (Dec)

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Tourism (Jan), Consumer Sentiment Indicator (Feb)