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The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI dipped to 52.4 in February, the fourth m/m decline in five months, after a 4.7-point rebound to 52.6 in January, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed. The February reading, above the 50 expansion-contraction dividing line, indicated the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the second successive month and only the third in 40 months. A reading of 51.8 for February had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The February manufacturing PMI, while above 50.0 in February 2025 and a low of 47.0 in October 2024, remained below a peak of 63.8 in March 2021.

The production index fell to 53.5 in February from 55.9 in January (the highest level since February 2022), indicating production expanded for the fourth consecutive month but at a slower pace. The index was above its recent low of 44.8 in April 2025 but below a peak of 66.5 in March 2021. In February, 25.2% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while 16.0% reported lower production. The new orders index declined to 55.8 in February from 57.1 in January (also the highest level since February 2022), signaling new orders expanded for the second straight month following four successive months of contraction. The index remained well above a low of 41.8 in January 2023. In February, 30.3% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while a reduced 12.8% reported declines. The inventories index increased to 48.8 in February from 47.6 in January, marking the 10th straight month of contraction. The index was below its recent high of 52.7 in March 2025 but above a low of 43.8 in October 2024. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index rose to 55.1 in February from 54.4 in January, indicating slower delivery performance for the third consecutive month after faster deliveries in November. In February, 14.0% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while 3.8% reported faster speeds.

On the labor front, the employment index increased to 48.8 in February from 48.1 in January, showing that employment contracted for the 29th straight month after a brief expansion in September 2023; however, February’s contraction was the slowest since January 2025. The index was above its recent low of 44.1 in November 2025 but below its recent high of 49.7 in January 2025 and a high of 56.5 in March 2022. In February, 18.8% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 20.4% reported less hiring.

On the pricing front, the prices paid index jumped to 70.5 (NSA) in February from 59.0 in January, indicating raw materials prices rose for the 17th consecutive month and at the fastest pace since June 2022. The index remained well above a low of 39.4 in December 2022 but significantly below a high of 87.1 in March 2022 and a peak of 92.1 in June 2021. An increased 45.4% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices in February while only 4.4% reported price declines.

In other ISM series not included in the composite index, the new export orders index edged up to 50.3 in February from 50.2 in January, indicating new export orders expanded for the second successive month following 10 months of contraction. The index was up from a low of 40.1 in May 2025 but down from its recent high of 52.4 in January 2025 and a high of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index rose to 54.9 in February from 50.0 in January, suggesting imports expanded the first time since March 2025 and reached the highest level since February 2022. The index was above a low of 39.9 in May 2025. The order backlog index advanced to 56.6 (NSA) in February from 51.6 in January, showing that backlog levels expanded for the second straight month and hit the highest level since May 2022. The index was well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023 but far below a peak of 70.6 in May 2021.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- ISM Mfg. PMI at 52.4 in Feb.; second consecutive month of expansion and only the third in 40 mths.
- Production (53.5) expands for the fourth straight mth.; new orders (55.8) expand for the second successive mth.
- Employment (48.8) contracts for the 29th straight mth. but at the slowest pace since Jan. ’25.
- Prices Index (70.5) hits its highest since June ’22, w/ prices rising for the 17th consecutive mth.
- Exports (50.3) expand for the second straight mth.; imports (54.9) reach the highest level since Feb. ’22.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Slips in February, Still Indicating Expansion

Robert Brusca

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The S&P manufacturing PMI readings for February 2026 continued to show improvement, particularly on a sequential basis.

The chart shows a clear upward tendency for the United States, Japan, and the European Monetary Union where the manufacturing PMIs have been on an increasing track for some time. Japan just surpassed the U.S. this month where the manufacturing PMI reading surged above 50. The U.S. has been steady at that level for a number of months; Japan has just moved up while the euro area reading is starting to show some upward trend.

The table takes the underlying diffusion levels reported by these 18 early reporters and shuffles them into six different cohorts to summarize their performance over different periods.

In February, we see twice as many reporters in the cohort between 55 and 60 as we saw in January; that proportion moved up to 11.1% from 5.6%. The proportion in the 50 to 55 diffusion category (mild improvement) was unchanged at 55.6%; the proportion showing mild below median performance declined to 33.3% in February from 38.9% in January. The other cohorts showed no membership.

If we look at the data grouped into sequential categories of three-months, six-months, and 12-months, we see the neutral to mildly positive category of 50% to 55% moving from 28.2% of total membership over 12 months to 39.8% of membership over 6 months to 55.6% membership over 3 months. This is a clear improvement in performance over this timeline for the category indicating moderate expansion. The stronger expansion category of 55 to 60 shows a membership of 5.6% for all three-time horizons. The category showing weak declines in the 40 to 50 range for diffusion declined steadily from 66.2% over 12 months to 54.6% over 6 months to only 38.9% over 3 months. Over the last three months, fewer than 40% of the reporters were showing mild declines, 55% of the reporters were showing unchanged-to-moderate increases, while relatively larger increases have been posted by 5.6% of the reporters.

Looking back to the right of the table, we can compare the recent 12-month figures to the previous 12-months and to the 12-months before that to get a sense of the smoothed trend. There what we see is the 50 to 55 category three years ago was at 28.2% of the reporting membership; it moved up to 38% of the membership over just a year ago whereas over the past year that membership had slipped to 28% in an environment where tariffs were imposed. Although, as we see from the sequential data, it has over the shorter periods of six months and three months been seeing an increase in membership in that category.

Over the earlier years, there was also stronger membership in the stronger growth category of 55 to 60 percentile. Three years ago, it registered 8.3%, then fell to 6.4% and now sits at 5.6% over the recent 12 months. Over the recent shorter periods of three months and six months, there has yet to be an improvement in that category. As for the weaker category the cohort from 40 to 50%, we see 62% of the membership in that category three years ago, and two years ago that had fallen back to 55.6%, but then over the past year it had moved up to average 66% of the membership: fully 2/3 of the reporting membership over the last year has been in the 40 to 50 the diffusion category though that membership proportion has been falling over the last six and three months.

The grouped statistics show that there is general progress in place and in line with what we see reported in the chart. In addition, we track the number of reporters That are improving period to period. From 12 months to six months to three months, we see that percentage of reporters showing higher diffusion readings steadily improving from 50% to 61.1% to 77.8%. We also track the number of reporters with diffusion below 50 (that is those that are showing contraction) and that number hasn't changed very much; it's at 13 over 12 months and over 6 months while falling only to 12 over 3 months.

However, if we step away from averaging and we look at the raw scores for the last three months, we see the number of countries reporting output that's contracting at 8 in December, at 7 in January and at 6 in February, a clearer sense of progress. Meanwhile, on the monthly timeline, there's also a sense of improvement - not in a monotonic sense – but there is a hint of better general tendency for the percent of reporters that are showing the tendency for higher diffusion to be reported to rise.

The diffusion statistics are up to date, and they basically describe the proportion of the reporters that are seeing activity improve or decline in the reporting area. Diffusion data don’t tell us how strong that improvement is, just whether it's present. Diffusion data tend to be sensitive. They tend to quickly be able to identify changes in trends and right now we're seeing an uptick, an improvement, in the levels of diffusion being reported in this 18-country sample for manufacturing. The results are not decisive, but they are encouraging.

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S&P Manufacturing PMIs Show Improvement

Michael J. Moran

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The headline PPI and its components sometimes move erratically, and that was certainly the case in January. The headline index (so-called final demand PPI) jumped 0.5%, one of the firmer readings of the past few years. However, a quick review of the detail in the report shows that marked changes in frequently noisy areas accounted for most of the pressure. Without such noise, the headline measure would have increased moderately, perhaps 0.1% or 0.2%.

Prices of food and energy are well known to move erratically, and they showed noticeable downside changes in January (off 1.5% and 2.7%, respectively). However, the highly volatile trade services category provided an offset with a surge of 2.5%, the sharpest monthly increase on record (data back to 2010). The Bureau of Labor Services is well aware of the volatile nature of these areas and offers an index excluding food, energy, and trade services to provide a perspective on underlying trends. This measure rose 0.3% in January, in line with other recent month-to-month changes. The year-over-year increase of 2.9% was comfortably within the recent range of observations (2.7% to 3.2% since mid-2025).

The change in prices excluding food, energy, and trade services seems tolerable in that it is comparable to other recent readings. However, some observers will highlight the uncomfortable rate of increase (3.0% versus a benchmark of 2.0% in the minds of many). Also, the sideways nature of the year-over-year change suggests little prospect of deceleration.

These points are well taken, but additional detail in the report offered a hint of softness. Another volatile item in the service category (transportation and warehouse services) rose 1.0% in January. This measure does not match the volatility in trade services, but it often shifts erratically. For example, last year this component rose 1.4% in one month and more than 0.5% in four other months, yet the average for the year was 0.2%. Future readings are likely to be well shy of the January advance.

An increase of 1.2% in the construction component also looks suspicious. This figure is reported to be seasonally adjusted, but there is a strong tendency to post high-side increases in the first month of a quarter. Observations in the next two months are likely to be noticeably softer, and the average for the year most likely will be well shy of 1.2%. The average increase last year was 0.2%.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Prices of food and energy fell sharply, while prices of trade services surged.
- Other noisy areas (transportation & warehouse services, construction) posted high-side increases.
- Excluding the (apparently) random shifts, results were tame.

January PPI: Wild Swings in Volatile Areas

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The value of construction put in place rose a slightly-more-than-expected 0.3% m/m in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,168.8 billion, reversing declines of 0.2% in November and 0.1% in October (+0.5% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. December marked the first m/m gain since August and the highest level in three months. A 0.2% m/m increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey for both November and December. The year-on-year rate was -0.4% in December following -1.4% in November, registering the 11th consecutive y/y decline. The latest y/y figure compared with a flat y/y reading in December 2024, remaining well below a high of 12.9% in December 2023 and a peak of 18.4% in April 2022. For all of 2025, construction spending fell 1.4% after gains of 5.7% in 2024 and 9.1% in 2023.

Private construction rebounded 0.5% (-1.5% y/y) to $1,647.1 billion in December, the first m/m gain in four months, after decreases of 0.2% in November and 0.1% in October (+0.6% previously). Residential private construction advanced 1.5% (-1.3% y/y) to $916.2 billion in December, the first m/m rise since August, after no change in November. Single-family building climbed 1.6% (-3.6% y/y) following a 0.6% November increase and eight straight m/m declines; it was 45.5% of the residential private construction. Multi-family building edged up 0.1% (2.9% y/y), the sixth m/m increase in seven months, after a 1.1% November rise; it was 12.7% of the residential private construction. Home improvement building recovered 1.8% (0.0% y/y), up the second time in three months, after a 1.0% November drop; it was 41.8% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction fell 0.7% (-1.8% y/y) to $730.9 billion in December, the third successive m/m fall and the fifth in six months, on top of a 0.5% decline in November. The December decrease reflected m/m drops across several nonresidential private construction categories, led by manufacturing (-2.5%; -11.4% y/y), followed by religious (-1.7%; +8.5% y/y), amusement & recreation (-1.1%; +7.9% y/y), health care (-0.8%; -3.7% y/y), commercial (-0.4%; +0.3% y/y), educational (-0.4%; +5.2% y/y), lodging (-0.2%; -1.1% y/y), and communication (-0.1%; -0.8% y/y). To the upside, nonresidential private constructions for utilities (+0.8%; +6.4% y/y) and office (+0.5%; +3.3% y/y) rose m/m in December. Meanwhile, transportation private construction was virtually unchanged (+4.6% y/y) after a 0.4% November decline.

The value of public construction fell 0.5% (+3.5% y/y) to $521.7 billion in December after m/m declines of 0.2% in November and 0.1% in October (+0.1% initially), reflecting drops of 2.7% (+9.1% y/y) in residential public construction and 0.4% (+3.4% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. Several nonresidential public construction categories declined m/m in December, led by water supply (-2.2%; +8.8% y/y), followed by public safety (-1.0%; +3.8% y/y), educational (-0.8%; -1.4% y/y), commercial (-0.6%; +7.3% y/y), transportation (-0.4%; +5.5% y/y), health care (-0.3%; +7.1% y/y), office (-0.3%; -2.6% y/y), and conservation & development (-0.1%; +8.7% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which accounted for 27.1% of public construction spending, slid 0.3% (+0.8% y/y) in December following a 0.4% rebound in November. In contrast, public constructions for utilities (+1.2%; +1.8% y/y), amusement & recreation (+0.5%; +4.6% y/y), and sewage & waste disposal (+0.3%; +14.2% y/y) gained m/m in December. 

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Headline +0.3% m/m, first m/m rise since August; -0.4% y/y, 11th consecutive y/y fall.
- Residential private construction +1.5% m/m, led by a 1.8% rebound in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.7% m/m, fifth m/m decline in six months.
- Public construction -0.5% m/m, reflecting drops in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.

U.S. Construction Spending Rebounds in December After Three Straight M/M Declines

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More countries have reported new results or firmed up their GDP results for 2025Q4. In the EMU, GDP grows by 1.3% year over year in the fourth quarter. The large EMU economies (Big Four) grow by 1% on that horizon, while the rest of the community grows at twice that pace, at 2.1%. U.S. growth on that timeline is 2.2%; Japan’s is 0.2%; and the United Kingdom grows by 0.9%. They are all weak compared to past standards. None of them rank at or above their respective 50th percentile standings on growth rates dating back to 1997.

In Europe, EMU nonmember Denmark’s growth at 3% has an over 50th percentile ranking, at 78.3 percentile mark. Ireland’s growth has a 60.9 percentile standing, while Italy and Portugal have growth rates near their respective 55th percentiles—above their respective medians but not by a lot.

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**The bigger they are, the slower they grow...**
Within the EMU, it is a durable finding that the smaller economies are growing faster than the larger ones. The good news here is that inflation seems to be really much more controlled and near to the target on a relatively broad basis. Headline inflation is broadly close to 2%, but core inflation rates are more stubbornly elevated. For now, the European Central Bank seems content to hold the line on inflation here. That decision is good for growth prospects. This may be because it can see that the community it services has some very different needs. And rather than holding the community’s feet to the fire to get inflation and core inflation to 2%, it has decided to allow some temporary overshooting and a longer glide path to 2%. This has been the U.S. strategy that is now coming under fire. The ECB may have adopted the charts and original targets of the old independent Bundesbank, but EMU-wide policy under the ECB looks very little like Germany policy used to when the Bundesbank results called the shots. This sort of overshoot would not have been tolerated and would not be ‘encouraged to live on’ with the compliant conduct of current policy. But then the ECB has this broader mandate of serving a huge area and with members that are not as inflation-fearing as Germany.

European nations generally have budgetary issues. Germany has been budget-careful. But its preference to pay down debt and stiff the U.S. on its request for Germany to put more money into NATO does not play well in retrospect. It has preserved some fiscal space for itself, and its fiscal house is very much in order…unlike France and nonmember U.K. who both are making policy under fiscal constraints.

For now, GDP growth is cruising along, and the EMU is logging weakish, tolerable, results. The big news so far is that growth has been enough to keep unemployment at an extremely low level. In some sense, the speed of GDP growth does not matter; it is anachronistic at least in the sense that what people think is good or enough draws from past experience, while the unemployment rate is a very here-and-now variable that might be affected by very different circumstances. Going ahead, there is a question of whether AI will be taking job growth away; it is a concern that is more advanced in the U.S. right now than in Europe. But it is still a nagging fear.

Still, we do not hear a lot of complaints about growth rates because the policy filter on GDP growth is employment growth and the unemployment rate. So far, those bells are not ringing out any warnings. So far...

Europe

Weak GDP Growth in Europe and Selected Countries Carries On

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