Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

251117j11.jpg

251117K11.jpg

The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions Index increased to 18.7 in November after rising to 10.7 in October and falling to -8.7 during September, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The latest was the highest reading in twelve months, holding above the break-even level of zero for four of the past five months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 6.0 for November. The percentage of respondents reporting an increase in general business conditions rose to 38.7% in November after increasing to 36.6% in October. The percentage reporting a decline in activity fell to 20.0% after weakening to 26.0% in October. The latest survey was conducted between November 3 and November 10. The headline reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity and is not calculated from the components.

Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. It rose to a nearly three-year high of 55.4 from 52.7 in October. The index is an average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories, each with equal weights of 20% each.

The increase in the Empire State readings this month was paced by a surge in the new orders index to 15.9 from 3.7 in October. A higher thirty-eight percent of respondents reported an increase in order, while the percentage reporting a decline in orders fell to 22.1%. The shipments index strengthened to 16.8, a twelve month-high. Inventories jumped to 6.7 after three straight negative readings. The delivery times measure increased to 7.7 from 3.9. On the labor front, the employment reading strengthened to 6.6, a four-month high. Fourteen percent of survey respondents reported higher employment while 7.2% reported less. The average workweek reading surged to 7.7, after two straight negative readings, climbing to the highest level since May 2022. Moving lower, the unfilled orders index in November fell to -5.8, after improving to -3.9 in October. 

Inflation readings weakened in 	November. The prices paid index fell to 49.0 after rising to 52.4 in October. A lessened 51.9% of respondents reported higher prices while an increased 2.9% indicated a decline. The prices received index eased to 24.0 after rising to 27.2 October. Both prices paid & prices received indexes, however, remain significantly higher than early last year.

Optimism amongst survey respondents about business during the next six months weakened in November. The index for future general business conditions fell to 19.1 from 30.3 in October. Expected new orders, shipments, unfilled orders and delivery time declined. The future workweek reading also declined but the expected employment reading rose to the highest level since January. The future prices paid declined after rising to the highest level since May while prices received in six months fell to a three-month low. The expected capital spending plans reading surged this month to the highest level since January.

The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.



251117L11.jpg

251117M11.jpg

- New orders, shipments, employment & hours rise.
- Prices paid & received decline.
- Six-month outlook deteriorates.


Empire State Manufacturing Index Continues to Strengthen in November

251114A2.jpg

251114D2.jpg

The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended November 14, 2025 after easing 0.1% in the prior four-week period. The index increased 1.5% y/y last week following a 0.5% y/y gain in the first week of the month.

**Textile** group prices increased 2.3% during the last four weeks, about the same as they did in the prior four weeks, and rose 3.1% y/y. The cost of burlap surged 23.4% in the last four weeks while rising a steady 48.1% over the last year. Showing a second week of modest improvement, cotton prices rose 0.4% in four weeks but declined 7.1% y/y.

**Metals** sector prices increased 2.7% (9.9% y/y) in the last four weeks after a 1.5% rise in the prior four weeks, as the cost of aluminum rose 3.2% (12.4% y/y). Zinc prices strengthened 3.1% (9.0% y/y) and the cost of steel scrap rose 1.2% (-3.1% y/y). Lead prices increased 4.7% (3.5% y/y) in four weeks and the cost of copper scrap rose 1.7% (19.3% y/y). Reversing earlier declines, tin prices rose 2.7% (20.5% y/y) in four weeks.

**Crude oil & benzene** prices improved 0.9% (-8.7% y/y) in the last four weeks, following a 1.6% decline in the previous four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 2.0% in four weeks to $59.63 per barrel but declined 13.3% y/y. The price was increased from a low of $58.47 in the third week of last month. The price of the petro-chemical benzene rose 0.9% (-17.8% y/y) in four weeks.

**Excluding crude oil**, the industrial commodity price index increased 0.8% (2.4% y/y) over the last four weeks, after holding steady during the prior four weeks.

**Miscellaneous** sector prices declined 2.0% in the last four weeks and fell 1.9% y/y, after falling 2.9% in the prior four weeks. Framing lumber prices fell 7.0% (-5.2% y/y). The cost of tallow, used for frying & baking, declined 6.9% (+10.5% y/y) in four weeks. Offsetting this weakness, natural rubber prices rose 3.1% in four weeks, but declined 9.3% y/y.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

**Why Inflation Expectations Are Important to Policymakers** from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found [here](https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2025/nov/why-inflation-expectations-are-important-to-policymakers).

251114B2.jpg

251114C2.jpg

- Textile and metals prices continue to strengthen. 
- Crude oil prices increase.
- Framing lumber costs decline again.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Increase in Latest Four Weeks

Robert Brusca

251114E.jpg

The European Monetary Union released an uneventful GDP report with GDP rising by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in 2025 Q3 compared to an increase of 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in the second quarter of 2015.

At an annual rate, overall GDP rises at a 0.9% pace in the third quarter, up from 0.5% in the second quarter; that acceleration masks a deceleration in the year-over-year growth as Q3 growth is at 1.4% year-over-year compared to an increase of 1.5% year-over-year in the second quarter.

The table shows eight early-reporting monetary union members and among these eight only two of them show GDP slowing in the third quarter compared to the second quarter on quarter-to-quarter changes. Ireland slows to -0.4% after gaining by 0.9% in the second quarter. Spain’s annual rate in the third quarter falls to 2.6% compared to a 3% pace in the second quarter.

Looking at year-over-year growth rates, there are decelerations that are much more common. In fact, there are accelerations in only three of the countries: Belgium, France, and Portugal. Belgium’s GDP growth in the third quarter moves up to 1.1% from 1% in the second quarter, growth in France is at 0.9% in the third quarter compared to 0.7% in the second, while Portugal logs an increase of 2.4% compared to 1.8% year-over-year gain in the second quarter.

Looking at growth in terms of the four largest EMU economies versus the rest, large economy growth notched 0.9% in the third quarter in terms of quarter-to-quarter changes compared to 0.4% in the second quarter. Euro area growth for the large economies was unchanged 0.8% in the third quarter; in fact, it has grown by 0.8% year-over-year in the first quarter, second quarter, and third quarter of 2025. The rest of the monetary union shows growth accelerating in the third quarter to 1.1% from 0.7% in the second quarter. However, the year-over-year growth rate for the rest of the monetary union drops down to 2.8% in the third quarter from 3.4% in the second quarter and that compares to 3.8% in the first quarter. 

The median growth rate, which is the growth rate among these eight countries and is unweighted, rises to 1.4% in the third quarter from 1% in the second quarter while the year-over-year growth rate has a median of 1.1% compared to 1.3% in the second quarter.

The quarter-to-quarter growth rates favor slightly the smaller countries in terms of the growth rate being logged although both large and small countries show a stepup in growth from the second quarter to the third quarter. Year-over-year growth rates also show much stronger growth in the rest of the monetary union compared to the four largest EMU economies on a consistent basis in fact for each of the four quarterly year-over-year growth rates in the table.

The rankings of growth give us some idea why we face these statistics, since three of the four largest monetary union economies log growth rates that are below their respective median growth rates since the late 1990s. Only three countries have growth rates above their medians on this timeline; those are Ireland, Portugal, and Spain. Germany, the largest monetary union economy, has a 30.4 percentile ranking for its year-on-year growth rate, France has a 28.3 percentile ranking, and Italy has a 35.9 percentile ranking.

The numbers posted today are in line with preliminary results and what markets had expected. Growth in the euro area continues to be positive and to move ahead. The signs in this report are that there's more progress than regress quarter-to-quarter although the progress remains slow, it's also relatively broad. This is a positive report but not a glowing report.

251114.jpg

Europe

EMU GDP Ticks High a Bit Faster

Andrew Cates

**Upbeat investors**
Despite a year marked by major headwinds — from renewed US tariffs and persistent geopolitical strains to shifting interest-rate expectations — incoming global economic data have consistently outperformed forecasters’ expectations. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has remained in positive territory for most of 2025, indicating that growth, labour, and spending indicators have been “less bad” or outright stronger than consensus predicted. That resilience has helped to underpin market sentiment: while bouts of concern have occasionally lifted the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), volatility has stayed relatively subdued, and equity markets have remained buoyant. In effect, 2025 has been a year in which the real economy has quietly outpaced the gloom, keeping risk appetite supported even as the macro narrative remained fraught with shocks and uncertainty.

251113Z1.jpg

**Less restriction from monetary policy**
Another key source of support for investors through 2025 has been the steady easing in both inflation and monetary policy across the major advanced economies. Core CPI has continued to trend lower from its 2022–23 highs, reflecting softer goods prices, moderating wage growth, and the lagged effects of tighter policy. With inflation now back within sight of central bank targets, policy rates have been edging down for the first time in several years. That shift has eased financial conditions, lowered real borrowing costs, and helped sustain asset valuations even as growth expectations have moderated. In effect, 2025 has marked the transition from a phase of inflation anxiety and policy restraint to one of gentle disinflation and tentative monetary normalisation—an environment that has kept liquidity abundant and risk assets well supported.

251113Z2.jpg

**A thrust from fiscal policy**
A further policy tailwind in 2025 has come from the fiscal side, where governments in the major advanced economies have largely resisted meaningful consolidation despite earlier pledges to rebuild buffers. Across the US, Europe, and Japan, the cyclically adjusted primary balance remains firmly expansionary, helping to sustain demand at a time when private investment and trade have softened. In the United States, spending linked to industrial policy, energy transition, and defence has continued to underpin activity; in Europe, fiscal policy has remained loose as governments balance social pressures and investment needs; and in Japan, the new prime minister has signalled further stimulus to support household income and productivity growth. Yet this persistent fiscal support has also had a side effect: it has kept longer-term real yields unusually elevated, reflecting both heavy sovereign issuance and investor recognition that governments are still running structural deficits even in a low-growth environment. In other words, fiscal policy has been a crucial prop for near-term growth—but also one reason why the “new normal” for real yields now looks higher than in the pre-pandemic decade.

251113Z3.jpg

**The AI Boom**
One of the defining features of 2025 has been the AI investment boom, centred on the extraordinary surge in spending on US data centres and digital infrastructure. Real private investment in this sector has soared to record highs as firms race to expand computing capacity, driven by optimism about artificial intelligence and its potential to transform productivity. The pickup in utilisation-adjusted total factor productivity suggests that some efficiency gains may already be materialising, though it remains too early to tell whether these effects will endure. Investors have largely welcomed this capital deepening as a sign of renewed US dynamism, but it also carries familiar late-cycle risks — from valuation bubbles in AI-related equities to mounting energy demands and strain on power grids. The key question for 2026 and beyond is whether this unprecedented capex wave will deliver the sustained productivity lift needed to justify its scale, or whether it proves another costly technological exuberance.

251113Z4.jpg

**Global trade fragmentation** 
Global trade came under renewed strain in 2025 as President Trump moved quickly in his second term to escalate tariff actions against China and several key trading partners. The US effective tariff rate has surged from below 8% at the end of 2024 to around 21% by mid-2025, marking the most aggressive trade tightening since the late 2010s. The back-and-forth imposition of tariff and non-tariff barriers between Washington and Beijing has led to a sharp pullback in bilateral trade flows, with US imports from China falling markedly and Chinese imports from the US also sliding. The broader ripple effects have been significant: global supply chains are once again being re-routed, firms are diversifying production toward third-country hubs, and world trade growth has slowed. This latest round of protectionism has reinforced the trend toward strategic fragmentation — a more regional, politically filtered form of globalisation — that continues to reshape the post-pandemic trading landscape.

251113Z5.jpg

**Lingering uncertainties**
If there has been one constant through 2025, it has been uncertainty itself. Both global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk indices have remained at historically high levels, underscoring an environment shaped by unpredictable policy shifts, heightened conflict risks, and volatile leadership transitions. Trade tensions between the US and China, renewed instability in the Middle East, and political fragmentation across Europe have all contributed to a pervasive sense of unease. For businesses and investors, this has meant navigating a world where the policy outlook can change overnight — from tariffs and fiscal surprises to shifting regulatory regimes. Yet despite this turbulence, financial markets have shown remarkable resilience, helped by disinflation, easier monetary policy, and continued technological investment. In short, 2025 has been a year in which uncertainty has become the new normal — less an episodic shock, more a defining structural feature of the global economic landscape.


251113Z6.jpg

The global economic story of 2025 has been one of resilience amid disruption. Despite a succession of shocks — from a renewed U.S.–China trade confrontation and elevated geopolitical risks, to a sharp rise in fiscal activism and the energy-intensive AI investment boom — the world economy has held up better than many feared. Activity data have consistently surprised on the upside, supporting buoyant equity markets and keeping volatility contained. Meanwhile, inflation has continued to ease and central banks have cautiously shifted toward easier policy, even as large government deficits have kept longer-term real yields elevated. At the same time, US tariff policies have re-emerged as a defining force in global trade, with steep new duties on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican goods disrupting supply chains and prompting renewed fragmentation in world commerce. These measures have cooled bilateral trade flows and added another layer of uncertainty to an already unsettled policy environment. Yet uncertainty itself remains the dominant feature of 2025 — geopolitical tension, technological exuberance, and diverging fiscal and monetary paths have left investors navigating a world where optimism and fragility coexist.

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/2maIAQuAmTWSmhhZOnQDq3?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: The Year in Review

251113F5.jpg

251113G5.jpg

The National Association of Realtors' Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index (HAI) increased 3.9% (-0.3% y/y) during September to 104.5 after rising 2.8% in August and 2.9% in July. The index roughly equaled the recent high of 104.8 in September of 2024. The level of home affordability was 16.2% higher than its low of 89.9 in October 2023, but remained 41.6% below the high of 179.0 in April 2020.

The rise in September affordability occurred as the median price of an existing single-family home fell 1.6% (+2.3% y/y) to $420,700. The price compared to the record $438,600 in June 2025. Mortgage rates fell to 6.43% after declining to 6.67% in August. The fall in mortgage rates left them above their low of 6.26% in September of last year, though below a 7.70% high in October of 2023. They remained well above a December 2020 low of 2.73%.

In September, the principal plus interest payment fell 4.0% (+4.1% y/y) to $2,112 per month, down 8.6% from June’s record high of $2,311, but still well above the most recent low of $984 in February 2020. Monthly mortgage payments averaged a lessened 23.9% of income during September, down from 24.9% in August, but increased from a low of 14.0% of income in April 2020.

The decline in housing costs in September was accompanied by a 0.3% decline (+3.8% y/y) in median family income to $105,946 after rising 0.3% in both August and July. Qualifying income declined 4.0% (+4.1% y/y) to $101,376, the third straight month of sharp decline.

Housing affordability improved m/m across the country in September. The index rose in the Midwest, the country’s most affordable region, by 5.1% (-2.8% y/y) to 131.9. In the South, the index increased 2.2% (0.6% y/y) to 109.9, while the affordability index in the Northeast jumped 9.4% (-2.8% y/y) to 92.7. In the West, where homes are the least affordable, the index improved 2.3% (1.1% y/y) to 75.0 in September.

The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) equals 100 when a median-income borrower qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home. The HAI had exceeded 100 in each month since July 1990. It reached an all-time high of 213.3 in January 2013.

Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver’s **REALTOR** database. Median home sales prices are also available in **USECON**. Higher frequency interest rate data are found in **SURVEYS**, **WEEKLY**, and **DAILY**.

251113H5.jpg

251113I5.jpg

- Home prices & mortgage rates continue to decline.
- Median income edges lower.
- Affordability increases across country.

U.S. Housing Affordability Increases in September

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Latest Releases

Economy in Brief

Empire State Manufacturing Index Continues to Strengthen in November

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Increase in Latest Four Weeks

EMU GDP Ticks High a Bit Faster

Charts of the Week: The Year in Review

U.S. Housing Affordability Increases in September