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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

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[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

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Haver partners with Clear Future Consultants to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Andrew Cates

**World trade**
This week’s data from the monthly CPB World Trade Monitor suggest the outlook for the world economy is darkening. World trade volumes specifically fell by 0.6% m/m in July to lie 3.2% lower than last year. This monthly decline was driven to a large extent by a fall in China’s trade volumes but activity in other parts of Asia (e.g. Japan) was also quite weak.

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**Consumer confidence**
This week’s data additionally revealed that the upward momentum seen in consumer confidence in the US and euro area over the last months has been checked over the last few weeks. The Conference Board gauge of US consumer confidence and the EC’s gauge of euro area confidence slipped back in September (and August).  That stands in contrast to the UK where consumer confidence has continued to climb. Energy price gyrations have arguably been a key driver of these global trends.

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**Broad money supply growth in the euro area**
That the euro area economy is now feeling great strain from tighter monetary policy was another message from this week’s data for the broad money supply. Euro area M3 is now contracting by 1.3%y/y in August after -0.4% y/y-July. This is the weakest performance on record. Underlying details revealed that these contractions were driven by weaker credit to both the private and government sectors. In short, the wheels of credit are moving into reverse, largely thanks to higher interest rates and weaker demand.

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**The burden of higher interest rates on US households**
The US economy does not yet appear to be facing the same burden from tighter monetary policy as the euro area. The relatively easy stance of fiscal policy (compared with Europe) is arguably one reason for this. But another concerns the structure of household and corporate balance sheets and differing methods of debt finance. In the US, for example, a relatively high proportion of US homeowners hold long-maturity 30 year fixed rate mortgages. That’s a key reason for why the US mortgage debt service ratio and the effective interest rate on US mortgage debt has barely risen in recent months notwithstanding the Fed’s relatively aggressive hikes in policy-controlled interest rates.

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**US corporate debt – long-term and short-term debt burdens**
Equally the proportion of company debt that is long-maturity is relatively high in the US as well. The proportion of long-term bank loans and long-term debt securities compared with short-term lending and debt has typically been quite high, as evidenced in chart 5 below. But relative to, say, the 1980s and 1990s it is higher than it used to be, and particularly the proportion of long-term debt financing.

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**Female labour force participation in the world economy**
According to recent updates for 2022 from the World Bank only 45 percent of women are active in the world’s labour market markets at present. That compares with 68 percent of men. The IMF has recently noted that unfair laws, unequal access to services, discriminatory attitudes and other barriers that prevent women from working are to blame. This is a big brake on many countries’ potential growth rates. In Asia’s big economies, however, this is not a big problem for China. It is, however, a problem in India.

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Financial markets have been roiled over the past few weeks largely thanks to a “tighter for longer” narrative from the Fed and a related - and steep - climb in US Treasury yields. That narrative has been amplified by recent comments from Fed officials, by a batch of stronger-than-expected US growth data, as well as by heightened concern that firmer oil prices could re-ignite inflationary pressures. Against that backdrop our charts this week focus on the more downbeat messages that have emerged of late from the global economic dataflow (charts 1, 2 and 3). As noted, the relative resilience of the US economy, nevertheless, has continued to surprise forecasters, and some potential reasons for this are subsequently highlighted (in charts 4 and 5). Away from these near-term cyclical matters we look at another more structurally-rooted reason for global growth concern, namely still-low levels of female labour force participation in the world economy, and in India in particular (in chart 6).

Charts of the Week (Sep 29, 2023)

Tom Moeller

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The third estimate of real GDP growth in the second quarter was unrevised at 2.1% (SAAR). That was down from the advance estimate of a 2.4% gain and followed a 2.2% first quarter rise. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 2.3% gain. Weakened growth in consumer spending was offset by raised estimates of business & residential investment. Moderated GDP price inflation was unchanged. The estimate of Q2 corporate profits was raised slightly.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.0% (1.8% y/y), revised from 2.3%, following a 3.8% rise. Personal consumption expenditures growth was revised down to 0.8% (1.8% y/y) from 1.7% as durable goods spending eased an unrevised 0.3% (+3.2% y/y) and nondurable goods outlays improved a lessened 0.9% (0.1% y/y), revised from 1.2%. Spending growth on services was revised to 1.0% (2.2% y/y) from 2.2%. Business fixed investment growth was revised to 7.4% (4.9% y/y) from 6.1% reflecting a 16.1% increase (12.3% y/y) in spending on nonresidential structures, revised from 11.2%, and an unrevised 7.7% rise (0.9% y/y) in spending on equipment. Residential structures investment fell 2.2% last quarter (-15.4% y/y), revised from -3.6%, following a 5.3% drop. It was the ninth consecutive quarterly decline. Government spending growth was left unchanged at 3.3% (4.1% y/y) as state & local government spending grew an unrevised 4.7% (4.0% y/y).

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The change in inventories had no effect on GDP growth last quarter, revised from a 0.09%-point subtraction in the second estimate. Trade deficit narrowing added 0.04 percentage points to growth, revised from -0.22 points estimated last month. Exports fell 9.3% (+2.1% y/y), revised from -10.6%, after increasing 6.8%	 while imports declined 7.6% (-3.9% y/y, revised from -7.0%, following a 1.3% Q1 increase.

Corporate profits with inventory valuation & capital consumption adjustments rose 0.2% before tax (-2.7% y/y), revised from -0.4%, following a 2.6% decline in Q1. Domestic profits fell 0.6% (-4.4% y/y) after a 2.7% Q1 decrease. By contrast, foreign profits rebounded 4.5% (7.4% y/y) after a 1.6% quarterly decline in Q1.

Price inflation moderated last quarter. The GDP price index rose 1.7% (3.5% y/y), revised from 2.0%, following a 3.9% Q1 rise. A 2.0% gain had been expected. It was the weakest increase in three years. The PCE price index increased an unrevised 2.5% (3.9% y/y) after a 4.2% gain. The PCE price index excluding food and energy prices rose an unrevised 3.7% (4.6% y/y) following a 5.0% Q1 rise. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.2%, revised from 1.1%, after a 6.4% rise. The residential investment price index increased 0.2% (3.9% y/y), revised from a 1.2% decline.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Consumer spending growth is shaved, business investment raised.
- Price inflation is lowered.
- Corporate profits increase negligibly.

U.S. GDP Growth Is Unrevised; Price Gain Lowered in Q2

Winnie Tapasanun

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings, fell 7.1% m/m (-18.7% y/y) to 71.8 in August after rises of 0.5% in July (+0.9% initially) and 0.4% in June (unrevised), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The August m/m fall was the first in three months and the deepest since September, with the PHSI at the lowest level since April 2020 (also 71.8). The year-on-year rate of decline deepened to -18.7% in August, the worst since May, from -14.3% in July. The PHSI has fallen 43.9% since its August 2020 high of 128.0.

The slump in sales occurred as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 7.07% in August from 6.84% in July. That was the highest monthly average since 7.07% in March 2002. Notably, the 30-year mortgage rate increased to 7.19% in the September 21 week, a four-week high, from 7.18% in the September 14 week.

Pending home sales decreased in August in all the major regions in the country. Sales in the South tumbled 9.1% (-17.6% y/y) in August after a 1.9% rebound in July, registering the fourth m/m decline in five months and the deepest since April 2020. Sales in the West slid 7.7% (-21.4% y/y) following a 5.7% July gain and sales in the Midwest fell 7.0% (-19.1% y/y) after a 1.4% July drop, posting the third m/m slide in four months and the worst since March. Sales in the Northeast declined 0.9% (-18.2% y/y) following a 5.8% July drop and two consecutive m/m increases.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **SURVEYW** database.

- PHSI -7.1% (-18.7% y/y) in August; first m/m decline since May.
- Lowest index level since April 2020.
- Widespread m/m drops in all the major regions, w/ double-digit y/y falling rates.
- With mortgage rates rising above 7%, home-buying activity will likely continue to slow.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Slump in August

Carol Stone, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up to 204,000 (+12.1% y/y) in the week ended September 23 from 202,000 the week before, which was revised marginally from 201,000 initially reported. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 215,000 in the latest week. The four-week moving average through the September 23 week was 211,000, down from 217,250 the week before and the lowest since 207,250 in the four weeks ended February 11. These data are seasonally adjusted and reported by the Department of Labor, that is, the main Department of Labor, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics which compiles most employment statistics.

The total number of insured unemployment, also called “continued weeks claimed,” was 1.67 million in the week ended September 16, up from 1.658 million in the September 9 week. The September 9 number was revised from 1.662 million reported a week ago. The four-week moving average of insured unemployment was 1.674 million in the September 16 week, down from the prior week’s average of 1.686 million. The latest week had the smallest average since the end of January.

The insured rate of unemployment in the September 16 week remained at 1.1% for a fourth consecutive week; this is the number of continued weeks claimed as a percent of covered employment. As previously noted here, this is just slightly larger than the lowest rate of 0.9%, reached in August and September of 2022; the series dates back to 1971.

The total number of insured unemployment in all programs was 1.670 million in the week ended September 9, down marginally from 1.679 million in the September 2 week. This total is not seasonally adjusted. Its smallest amount was 1.222 million in the week ended October 8, 2022. The total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs. Claims in the discontinued Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release.

Labor market conditions vary widely across the whole country, and so do insured rates of unemployment. In the week ended September 9, the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.33%), California (2.15%), New York (1.75%), Massachusetts (1.63%) and Rhode Island (1.62%).  The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.19%), North Dakota (0.28%), Kansas (0.32%), Virginia (0.36%) and New Hampshire (0.39%). Rates in other large states include Pennsylvania (1.42%), Illinois (1.37%), Texas 1.04%) and Florida (0.45%).  These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver's **WEEKLY** database; they are summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial unemployment claims rise just 2,000 from prior week.
- Continuing claims have lowest 4-week average since January.
- Insured rate of unemployment still 1.1%, close to all-time low of 0.9%.

U.S. Jobless Claims Remain Low in Latest Week

Robert Brusca

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The European Commission indexes of overall confidence and sector assessments for September slipped lower and the European Monetary Union (EMU) with the overall gauge dropping to 93.3 from 93.6 in August. At that level, the overall index has a ranking among historical observations back to 1990 in its lower 24th percentile, an extremely weak reading.

**Component or sector readings for EMU**
The component readings for the index show slippage or unchanged values for all components except the industrial sector where there was a month-to-month improvement in September to -9 from a -10 reading in August. The service sector assessment was unchanged in September at a level of 4.0. The retail and construction indexes each slipped to a reading of -6 in September from a reading of -5 in August. Consumer confidence in the EMU fell to -17.8 in September from -16 in August; it has the lowest component ranking among the five components at a 14.1 percentile standing in September. Confidence in the EMU is doing very badly. The industrial and services assessments also have standings below their 50th percentiles. Retailing and construction have percentile standings above their historic medians (which means they're above the 50th percentile). Construction has a relatively firm standing at a 70th percentile standing; retailing has a 58.7 percentile queue standing.

**Country level performance in September**
18 of 19 members report country level confidence readings for September; 8 of 19 members show month-to-month declines, the same number as in August and one more than July. Among the largest countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), Italy and Spain showed declines in September while Germany, France, and Italy showed declines in August. Germany and France showed declines in July as well. The large countries have consistently been showing weakness. Because the overall European monetary union gauge is weighted for economic size, this weakness among the largest economies weighs on the overall index.

**Standings show broad and intense weakness**
The monetary union gauge itself has a 24.2 queue percentile standing; this compares to a 15.9 percentile standing in Germany, the largest economy in the EMU. France, the second largest economy, has a standing at its 37.5 percentile. Italy, the third largest economy, logs a 41.1 percentile standing. Spain, the fourth largest economy, has a 39.5 percentile standing. Among the remaining 14 countries, only three have queue percentile standings above their 50% mark. Those are Malta with a 99.6 percentile standing, Greece with the 71.5 percentile standing, and Cyprus with a 62.7 percentile standing. Most countries large or small have overall sentiment standings below their 50th percentile and generally substantially below their 50th percentiles. Among the largest four economies, the highest percentile standing is from Italy with a 41.1 percentile standing; among the other 14 in the table, setting aside the three that have readings above the 50% mark, the highest percentile standing is 39.2% in Lithuania, followed by 33.6% in Slovakia, 29% in Latvia, and 28.5% in Luxembourg.

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**Large economy sector assessments-** Table two presents the percentile standings by sector for each of the four largest monetary union member countries. These standings rank the position of the sector in each country against its historic values on data back to 1990. The table makes it clear that the overall standings for the monetary union are pretty much consistent across the board for the large countries on average. The table presents the EMU sector rankings across the top and at the bottom of the table it presents unweighted averages of the four largest economies for a simple rule of thumb comparison.

**Large economy differences-** The two smallest of the four largest economies have the strongest readings in the table on a consistent basis; both Italy and Spain have three index components above their historic medians (which means that they rank above their 50th percentile mark). Italy has three quite strong readings with a 97.6 percentile standing in construction, an 88-percentile standing in retail, and a very firm 76-percentile standing for services. The overall Italian reading is dragged down by a 23-percentile standing for industry and a 31.5 percentile standing for consumer confidence. Similarly Spain has above 50-percentile standings in retailing, services, and construction and has an overall queue standing close to Italy's largely because its industry and confidence readings are not quite as weak as the two sectors reported by Italy. In the EMU, only one sector rates a standing above the 50% mark; that's construction. It is below its 50-percentile reading only in Germany. Germany shows extreme weakness for all the metrics, with construction being its relative strongest sector reading. Germany, the largest EMU member, has the weakest standing for every sector except for industry, where Italy manages to be several percentile standing points below Germany. The German economy is consistently the relative worst among the ‘Big Four’ economies.

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**Smaller country standings**
Among the eighteen countries reported on the table, only Austria, Estonia, Finland, and Belgium have weaker percentile standings than Germany. The impact of inflation coupled with the sanctions on Russia and trade limitations with China have hit the export-oriented German economy hard as it had significant trade connections with both of those countries. The war dragging on in Ukraine, and with inflation proving to be stubborn, and now in the face of a new increase in oil prices, the outlook for policy in the monetary union will continue to foresee high rates and continue to see economic activity under pressure – a difficult balance.

Europe

EC Commission Indexes for EMU Slide Lower Again

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Household Formation, Wholesale & Retail Trade, Financial Institutions Accounts, Regional Banking Accounts, Trading Volume of Bond with Options (Aug), Industrial Production (Aug-Prelim)

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