Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

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Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

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Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with Clear Future Consultants to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades slipped to $3.27 per gallon (-10.7% y/y) in the week ended October 21 from $3.29 in the prior week, the lowest price since the first week of February. These compare to a high of $3.79 per gallon in the fourth week of April. The all-time high was $5.11 in the second week of June 2022. The prices of on-highway diesel fuel declined to an average $3.55 per gallon (-21.8% y/y) last week versus $3.63 per gallon in the prior week. A recent low of $3.77 per gallon occurred in the week ended July 3, 2023 while the high was $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June 2022.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $70.94 per barrel (-19.4% y/y) in the week ended October 18 from an average $75.07 in the prior week. It remained well above its low of $69.37 per barrel in the week of June 30, 2023, but below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The all-time high was reached in the week of July 4, 2008 at $142.46 per barrel. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $70.56 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil declined to $74.58 per barrel (-19.3% y/y) in the week ended October 18 from $79.34 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $73.29 per barrel.

Natural gas prices declined to an average of $2.15/mmbtu (-24.8% y/y) in the week ended October 18 compared to $2.40/mmbtu in the prior week. These were up from a mid-March low of $1.40 and a high of $3.20 averaged in the week of October 13, 2023. Yesterday, the price of natural gas stood at $1.76/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand rose 5.4% y/y in the four weeks ended October 11 after rising 5.4% y/y in the four weeks ended October 4. Demand for all petroleum products rose 2.8% y/y after improving 2.9% y/y in the prior four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 1.8% y/y in the four weeks ended October 11 after rising 1.5% y/y in the previous four-week period.

Gasoline inventories fell 4.7% y/y in the week of October 11 following a 4.8% y/y drop in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 8.9% y/y after declining 12.9% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased 4.3% y/y in the week of October 11 following a 3.9% y/y decline one week earlier.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories dipped to 23.6 days in the week of October 11 versus 23.8 days in the prior week. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories were little changed at 26.5 days of supply in the week of October 11 versus 26.4 days in the prior week. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERG**Y database.

- Gasoline prices are lowest since early this year.
- Crude oil price reverses two-week gain.
- Natural gas prices drop sharply.

U.S. Energy Prices Weaken in Latest Week

Robert Brusca

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European vehicle registrations fell by 6% in September, partly unwinding a drop of 9.7% logged in August. Registrations continued to be in a weak patch, falling at a 27% annual rate over three months and acceleration from a 2.9% rate of decline over six months. Over 12 months sales are lower, falling at a 7.7% annual rate. The problem is not just weakness in the month because the data on the three-month moving average show a decline and have fallen for several months in a row; based on three-month moving averages, the three-month 6-month and 12-month moving averages show declines at double-digit rates. Registrations are weak in Europe.

By country, registrations rose in the five countries that report sales: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Gain to the sharpest in Spain at 14.5% gains were weakest in the U.K. at 3%. Except for the U.K., all these reporting countries showed declines in registrations for two months in a row; the U.K. posted an increase in registrations in July.

Germany shows the weakest progression for registrations among the individual countries although on a year-over-year basis the weakest sales are in France where they fall 12.3%, in Italy where they fall 11%, compared to Germany where registrations year-over-year fall by only 6.7%. The U.K. has registrations up by 0.5% over 12 months while Spain has registrations up by 6.2%.

The progression of sales from 12-months to six-months to three-months shows growth rates in Germany escalating negatively from -6.7% over 12 months to a -20.2% pace over six months to a -56.9% annual rate over three months. This extreme weakness is challenged to some extent by Italy where there's an 11% drop over 12 months, a 3.5% drop, at an annual rate, over six months, and a three-month drop of 38.8% annualized. France shows consistent negative numbers across these horizons, falling by 12.3% over 12 months, a 19.1% annual rate drop over six months and a 14.2% annual rate drop over three months. Spain’s 6.2% year-over-year gain becomes a 17.6% annual rate drop over six months but then recovers to a 17.3% annual rate increase over three months. Spain's data are more volatile than they are weak. The U.K. is the only country to show increases on all horizons; it's showing accelerating increases with a gain of 0.5% over 12 months, progressing to a 2.6% annual rate rise over six months and elevating to an 18.5% annual rate over three months.

The United Kingdom is the only country that has a true positive story to tell. Spain has a story of some volatility with an increase over three months. The other countries have these isolated gains in September that are part of negative progressions. In Europe, conditions are weak; the auto sales data tell us they continue to be weak and there's no evidence that broadly tells us that things are getting better. In fact, the overview seems to be that conditions continue to be quite weak and might be getting worse. European car registration data today are not reassuring.

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Europe

European Car Registrations Rise on Month, Fall Year-on-Year

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The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell 0.5% (-4.8% y/y) during September following a 0.3% decline during August, revised from -0.2%. A 0.3% decline in the September index had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The index has been declining since a peak in December 2021. It is comprised of 10 components which tend to precede changes in overall economic activity.

Putting negative pressure on the Leading Index last month were a decline in ISM new orders, fewer building permits, the interest rate yield curve and weaker consumer expectations for business/economic conditions. Component increases in the Leading Indicators index included fewer unemployment insurance claims, factory orders for consumer goods, nondefense capital goods orders, the S&P 500 stock price index and the leading credit index. The length of the average workweek held steady. 

The Coincident Economic Index improved 0.1% (1.4% y/y) during September after rising 0.2% in August, revised from 0.3%. Three of the four component series contributed positively to the September gain including nonfarm payroll employment, real personal income less transfers and real manufacturing & trade sales. Contributing negatively to the coincident index change, for the second month in the last three, was the change in industrial production.

The Lagging Economic Index suggested a growing amount of economic slack by declining 0.3% in September (+0.9% y/y) after holding steady (unrevised) in August. It was the second decline in the last three months. A longer duration of unemployment, the 6-month change in unit labor costs, the prime rate charged by banks, the level of C&I loans and the 6-month change in the services CPI contributed negatively to the index change. The inventory-to-sales ratio and the consumer installment credit/income ratio contributed positively to the lagging index change.

The ratio of the Coincident-to-Lagging indicators, considered another leading economic indicator, rose last month to the highest level since May 2022.

The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's **BCI** database; the components are available there, and most are also in **USECON**. The expectations are in the **AS1REPNA** database. Visit the Conference Board's [website](https://www.conference-board.org/us/) for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.

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- Component movement in leading index remains mixed.
- Coincident indicators edge higher.
- Lagging indicators weaken further.

U.S. Leading Economic Index Extends Decline into September

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The German PPI in September fell by 0.5% as the ex-energy PII fell by 0.1%.

Year-on-year Germany’s PPI fell by 1.4% but the ex-energy PPI rose by 1.3% providing ‘some breathing space’ on the inflation front. The PPI, of course, is not targeted by the ECB nor are any national pricing results. However, Germany is the largest economy in the EMU and its results matter. What we see in the PPI is evidence of better price discipline overall- but overstated in the PPI headline.

Sequentially the German headline PPI gains 0.6% at an annual rate over six months and is flat over three months- compared to its 12-mont drop of 1.4%. The ex-energy PPI rises at a 1.9% annual rate over six months and runs at a 0.7% annual rate over three months. PPI prices are more closely linked to the manufacturing sector when global economic conditions have remained weak.

German sector results show mixed gains/losses from July to September monthly. Sector results taken sequentially show German consumer goods prices (at the PPI level) up by 1.5% over 12 months, gaining at a 1.8% pace over six months and rising at a 0.6% pace over three months. That’s a relatively subdued profile. Investment goods prices rise by 2% over 12 months, rise at a 1.2% annual rate over six months, and tick higher over three months at a 0.3% annual rate. Intermediate goods prices are up by only 0.5% over 12 months, rise at a 1.0% annual rate over six months, and fall at a 1.0% annual rate over three months.

The table shows German CPI prices for comparison. They are closer to the HICP that the ECB targets EMU-wide than the PPI. The profile of headline CPI prices in Germany runs under the EMU 2% target on all three sequential periods. But the CPI excluding energy is hot, running at a pace North of 2% over 12 months, 6 months and 3 months at an annual rate and showing its hottest pace over 3 months.

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On balance, German inflation is not exorbitant. The CPI is slightly hot, but still posting such a number in an economy where growth is struggling. That suggests inflation is still demonstrating staying power. Germany’s inflation performance is unlikely to raise any eyebrows or to console any of the inflation-fearing public. The report is simply another unconvincing reading on inflation at a time of difficulty for policymakers.

Germany

Germany’s PPI Runs Slow

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Total housing starts slipped 0.5% (-0.7% y/y) during September to 1.354 million (SAAR) after rising 7.8% in August to 1.361 million, revised from 1.356 million. July starts fell 5.0% to a 1.262 million, revised from 1.237 million. Starts remained 25.9% below the most recent peak of 1.828 million in April 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.349 million starts in September.

Multi-family starts dropped 9.4% (-16.2% y/y) to 327,000 last month, following a 10.0% August shortfall to 361,000. They reached a high of 624,000 units in November 2022. Offsetting this decline, single-family starts rose 2.7% (5.5% y/y) to 1.027 million after rising 16.1% in August. Single-family starts stood at the highest level since April.

Starts were down in most parts of the country. Starts in the Midwest fell 9.1% (-6.3% y/y) to 179,000 following a 9.4% August increase. Starts in the South weakened 3.4% (-6.6% y/y) to 738,000 after rising 19.7% in August. Also falling were starts in the West which weakened 10.1% (-13.2% y/y) to 257,000 after rising 5.5% in August. Starts in the Northeast surged 57.9% (109.3% y/y) to 180,000 units after falling 34.1% in August.

Building permits weakened 2.9% (-5.7% y/y) in September to 1.428 million units after rising 4.6% in August. Single-family permits edged 0.3% higher (-1.2% y/y) to 970,000 last month after rising 2.8% in August. Multi-family permits declined 8.9% (-14.1% y/y) to 458,000, after increasing 8.2% in August.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Multi-family starts fall sharply but single-family starts rise to five-month high.
- Starts decline in three out of four regions of country.
- Building permits sideways trend continues.

U.S. Housing Starts and Permits Move Lower in September

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National Bank Balance Sheet, State Budget, International Trade by Country, Trade by HS (Aug)

Household Employment for States and Regions (Sep)

Central Bank Balance Sheet (Sep), Deposits (Sep)

Retail Sales (Sep), Business Tendency Survey (Oct)

Public Debt (Sep), Services Sector Production (Aug)

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Building Permits (Aug), Hours Worked, Vacancies (Sep)

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Residents' Foreign Deposits by Currency, PPI (Sep)