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Mortgage applications dropped 8.5% w/w (+10.1% y/y) in the week ending May 22, after having declined 2.3% w/w (+18.9% y/y) in the week ending May 15, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house edged down 0.4% w/w (+4.7% y/y) in the latest week, after dropping 4.1% w/w (+8.0% y/y) in the May 15 week.  Applications for loan refinancing plunged 18.1% w/w (+18.9% y/y) in the May 22 week, following a small decline of 0.1% w/w (+34.8% y/y) in the May 15 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 11bps to 6.84% in the week ending May 22 from 6.73% in the week ending May 15. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 7bps to 6.18% in the May 22 week from 6.11% in the May 15 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 11bps to 6.80% in the latest week from 6.69% in the May 15 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose 4bps to 6.11% in the May 22 week from 6.07% in the May 15 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan dropped to 37.5% of total applications in the week of May 22 from 41.9% in the May 15 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity edged down to 9.4% in the May 22 week from 9.6% in the May 15 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan rose 3.8% w/w (8.4% y/y) to $418,400 in the week ending May 22, following a decline of 1.4% w/w (+3.5% y/y) to $403,200 in the week ending May 15. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.4% w/w (7.3% y/y) to $473,600 in the latest week, after edging down 0.1% w/w (+4.6% y/y) to $466,900 in the May 15 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 3.7% w/w (15.8% y/y) to $326,400 in the week ending May 22, after declining 3.0% w/w (+8.1% y/y) to $314,700 in the May 15 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose 11bps to 6.73%, after rising 9bps in the prior week. 
- Average loan size rose.

U.S. Mortgage Applications dropped in the May 22 Week

Robert Brusca

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The French manufacturing climate index improved in May, rising to 102.3 after climbing to 100.4 in April from 99.4 in March.

Despite the improvement, the standing of the climate index is only at its 50.4 percentile, leaving it just slightly above its historic median on data back to 2001. Industry climate now is still slightly lower than it was in January 2020, just before COVID hit.

The survey components tell a mixed story about prospects for industry in France. Manufacturing production expectations improved slightly in May, moving to -17.0 from -17.4 in April; however, both readings were sharply weaker than the value in March. The standing of production expectations in May is at its 25.4 percentile, marking it as just a hair above its lower quartile when ranked on data back to 2001. This is a weak and uninspiring showing.

The recent trend of production is much more upbeat, rising to 14.3 in May from 3.6 in April. It also shows a sharp improvement compared to a year ago, when the value was 3.7. Its standing is significantly above its historic mean, and the ranking for this May observation is at its 82nd percentile—a solid showing. It is the strongest response in the survey among demand and activity variables. But can that trend hold?

The personal likely trend, in which survey respondents respond to prospects for their own firms and industries, shows much less ebullience, with the May reading of 4.4 and a steadily diminishing trend from March to April to May. The personal likely trend is still stronger than a year ago, when it was -3.1, although it is significantly below its historic mean, with a ranking at its 28th percentile. It is a reading that is nearly completely decoupled from the recent trend responses in this same survey.

Orders and demand in May improved to -14.1 from -15 in April; in April, the index had improved from -18.2 in March. There is a similar trend and improvement for foreign orders and demand as well. Both overall and foreign demand are improved compared to a year ago; both are stronger than their historic means, and each of the series has a ranking in its 61st percentile—above their respective historic medians with some margin, enough to say the responses look firm. Yet, there is not enough to say they look strong. Both readings are still below their levels in January 2020, before COVID struck.

The INSEE survey also includes two observations on prices: the own-likely price trend and the manufacturing price trend. Both have been moving up sharply from March to April to May; both are significantly above their year-ago levels and relatively strong compared to their historic means. Both series also have high percentile rankings, with the own-likely price trend at a 90.2 percentile ranking and the manufacturing price level at an 88.5 percentile ranking. Both are also substantially above their levels of January in 2020, before COVID struck.

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**Summing up**
What we're seeing in this survey is some signs of strength from the recent production trend; however, pessimism by respondents about their own industry is an offset to that. There is some firmness in overall orders & demand and foreign orders & demand, but it's not yet strong and the outlook for prices and inflation is a considerable negative. With rising oil prices, the outlook for inflation is not surprising, and we're going to have to wait and see what tactics the European Central Bank takes in order to have an idea how hard this might hit the economy. Industry climate and order demand have been creeping up, but the weakness in manufacturing production expectations is a sharp counterpoint to keep in mind. In short, the INSEE manufacturing survey has a number of contradictions and significant question marks that should make us wary about the outlook.

France

INSEE: French Manufacturing Rebounds Amid Weakness

Michael J. Moran

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The Conference Board’s index of Consumer Confidence inched lower in May (off 0.7%), but the change occurred from an upward revised level in April (firmer by 1.1%). These changes continued the recent pattern of modest month-to-month shifts, although the headline index lost noticeable ground during 2025, leaving recent readings in the low end of the range for the current expansion. From a long-term perspective, the current index value of 93.1 was nearly equal to the average of 92.9 from 2000-2025.

A drop in assessments of the present situation led the decline in May, with this component falling 2.6%. The expectations index improved slightly, increasing 1.4%. This pattern matches the usual cyclical shifts, as the index for the present situation shows wide swings between peaks and troughs. Usually, however, the pronounced declines do not occur until the economy has entered a recession. The change in the past year or so has been large for an economy still in a business expansion.

The uncomfortable inflation setting has most likely influenced the views of consumers, which is evident in the inflation expectations question in the survey. The median view on inflation 12 months hence totaled 5.2% in May, down 0.1 percentage point from April, but well above readings near 4% in 2024 and in the calmer environment before the pandemic. Inflation concerns were more intense last year when tariffs were in the news (median inflation expectation of 5.9% in April 2025), but 5.2% is still hefty.

The labor market does not have the vigor it did in 2024 and early 2025, and that change has probably influenced assessments of the present situation. However, individuals still have a slightly favorable view of the job market. The share of respondents viewing jobs as plentiful totaled 25.5% in May, while 18.6% viewed jobs as hard to get. The differential of 6.9 percentage points, like the present-situation index, is low for an expanding economy, but it is far above readings seen in past recessions.

The results from the Conference Board survey of consumers differ markedly from those of the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. The Michigan results show consumer sentiment at a record low, while the Conference Board index essentially matches its long-run average. The difference most likely reflects the nature of the questions in the surveys. The Conference Board focuses on business and employment conditions, while Michigan emphasizes personal finances. The focus on finances, along with questions on inflation, probably picks up concerns about affordability.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Assessments of the present situation slipped, but views were still above long-run norms.
- Expectations improved slightly in April, but they are still below the long-run average.

Consumer Confidence: Slightly Lower in May

Winnie Tapasanun

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.14 in April from -0.15 in March (-0.20 initially) and +0.09 in February (+0.03 previously), today’s report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed, indicating economic growth increased to its highest level since March 2025. The April CFNAI marked the third positive reading in four months and the first m/m rise since January; it was above a low of -0.49 in October 2025 and a reading of -0.36 in April 2025 but below a high of +0.39 in February 2025.

The index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, inched up to +0.03 in April from +0.02 in March (-0.03 initially), marking the third consecutive positive reading following nine straight negative figures. However, it was slightly below +0.06 in April 2025 and a high of +0.07 in February 2025. The CFNAI-MA3 is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the Chicago Fed indicates that an average reading of -0.70 or below is consistent with the economy being in a recession. Therefore, the April reading confirmed that the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession.

The April reading reflected m/m increases in two of the four CFNAI key components and two positive contributions. The contribution of the Production & Income index to the CFNAI rose to +0.18 in April, the highest reading since February 2025, from -0.13 in March; it was above -0.11 in April 2025 and a low of -0.61 in January 2024. The contribution of the Sales, Orders & Inventories index increased to +0.02 in April, the fourth positive reading in five months, from -0.03 in March; it was above its recent low of -0.17 in September 2025 and a low of -0.20 in April 2025. Meanwhile, the Employment, Unemployment & Hours index contributed -0.02 in April, down from a neutral value (0.00) in March but marginally above -0.03 in April 2025. The contribution of the Personal Consumption & Housing index fell to -0.04 in April, a three-month low, from 0.00 in March; it was below -0.03 in April 2025 and a high of +0.10 in March 2025.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index—which measures the breadth of change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average—improved to +0.06 in April, the highest reading since October 2022, following +0.03 in March (-0.04 initially) and negative readings during the March 2023 to February 2026 period. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. The April reading was above a low of -0.55 in October 2025 and -0.13 in April 2025 but below a high of +0.14 in September 2022.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- CFNAI +0.14 in April, highest since March ’25; -0.15 in March.
- Two of four CFNAI components up m/m; two make positive contributions.
- CFNAI-MA3 edges up to +0.03, third straight positive reading; above -0.70 (recession signal).
- CFNAI Diffusion Index rises to +0.06, highest since Oct. ’22.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Turns Positive in April

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The U.K. distributive trades survey in retaliating for the second quarter of 2026 shows some improvement in the business situation expected over the next six months as that reading rose to -15 from -34 in the first quarter, putting it only slightly weaker than its third-quarter 2025 reading of -10. Still, it is a very weak reading.

The employment reading also improved in the second quarter to -30 from -40 in the first quarter. That reading, however, is still lower than its -19 reading in the fourth quarter and its -14 reading on the third quarters of 2025.

Capital spending plans on the quarter for the year ahead registered -52 in the second quarter, compared to -46 in the first quarter; this reading has steadily deteriorated.

Imports have improved slightly in the second quarter, with the reading at  7 compared to  10 in the first quarter and  13 in the fourth quarter.

The expected selling price compared to what it registered a year ago is at 42, compared to 40 in the first quarter; they compared to even stronger values at the end of last year. Expected employment in the second quarter fell sharply to -44 from -23 in the first quarter, and this reading has steadily and strongly deteriorated, particularly in the second quarter itself.

Comparing the trailing 4-quarter to 8-quarter averages shows clear deterioration across the board, except for prices. That clarifies the overall story and trend for retailing. 

The retail rankings are uniformly weak, with the exception that the selling price has a 43.6 percentile standing, which is still below its historic median ranking. However, the standings for imports, capital spending, and employment are all below the 10th percentile, with the business situation coming in an 11.4 percentile standing. The expected selling price has a 63.6 percentile standing, well above its historic median (the median occurs at a ranking of 50%). Meanwhile, employment, looking ahead, has only a 2.9 percentile standing, clearly not much of a vote of confidence in the outlook for the economy.

The wholesaling portion of the distributive trades report also registers weak standings, but they are higher than those seen in retailing, with the business situation at an 18.6 percentile standing, imports at a 25.7 percentile standing, and employment at a 17.1 percentile standing, while capital spending plans are at a very weak 5.7 percentile standing. All these metrics are generally stronger than for retailing; they're still poor readings and generally below their respective medians. The only exception is the selling price with a 77.9 percentile standing, which is only a vote of confidence for inflation. The expected selling price compared to a year ago has a 44.3 percentile standing, while employment expectations compared to a year ago are at a 35-percentile standing.

Similarly, in wholesaling as for retailing, the comparison of 4-quarter to 8-quarter averages shows across the board deterioration, except for prices. The distributive trades sector for retailing as well as for wholesaling is fading.

**Summing up**
The United Kingdom distributive trades survey is telling us clearly that it is a weak environment for the distributive trades. The standings of the current readings are weak, and the outlook and forward-looking portions of the survey are weak as well. The economy continues to fight inflation that has been over the top for some time, and inflation is still above target, keeping the BOE inflation-vigilant. Global conditions are mixed with the cutoff of goods shipments through the Straits of Hormuz impacting economies globally. The second quarter survey is a depressing statement on the state of the outlook for the U.K. economy.

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United Kingdom

U.K. Distributive Trades Survey Is Broadly Weak

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Statistics of Liquidations (Apr), Motor Trade Sales (Mar)

Employment, Unemployment & Vacancies (Apr), Consumer & Business Confidence (May)

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Labor Force Survey, Employment & Earnings, Credit Measures, Monetary Aggregates (Apr), Services PPI (Q1)