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Tom Moeller

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Manufacturing activity in Texas continued to weaken this month, according to the  Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The general business activity index of –15.7  compared to -13.5 in February; it’s been negative since last May. The latest reading compared to a low of -23.7 in July of last year.  A slightly improved 12.6% of respondents reported improved business activity in March, down from 17.2% in January. An increased 28.3% of respondents reported a worsening of business conditions, the most in three months. The company outlook index improved slightly to -13.3 in March from -17.5 in February, but it has been negative since March, 2022. Data were collected from March 14-22 from 92 Texas manufacturers.

The shipments index fell to -10.5 from -5.0 and stood at its lowest level since May 2020, down from 26.1 in November 2021. A greatly lessened 19.1% of respondents reported more shipments while a fairly steady 29.6% reported a decline. The hours-worked measure declined to 2.6 from 4.9. It was the weakest measure in four months.

To the upside, the employment index rose to 10.4 from -1.0 as a greatly increased 24.1% of respondents reported a rise in hiring, while a lessened 13.7% reported a decline. The production index improved to 2.5 in March from -2.8 in February. A slightly lessened 23.3% of respondents reported higher production while a greatly fewer 20.8% reported a decline. The growth rate of orders index rose this month to -15.2 from -16.9 in February, but has been negative since May of last year. The unfilled orders reading rose to -9.4 from -13.3.

Inflation indicators fell this month. The index for prices received for finished goods declined to 7.0 from 15.8. It was the lowest reading since November 2020. It was down from a high of  51.3 high in October 2021. A lessened 17.7% of respondents reported raising prices while an increased 10.7% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials weakened to 20.3 this month, the lowest level since July 2020, significantly below 73.4 last March and an 84.1 high in November 2021.

Expectations for future manufacturing activity deteriorated this month. The future general business activity index stood at -11.2 in March, its 11th consecutive negative reading. The future production index fell to 13 .5 from 21.3  as the future employment index also dropped sharply to its lowest level in five months. The future shipments index weakened as did the hours-worked measure. Showing improvement, the future capital spending measure rose to its highest level since July of last year.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- General business activity slips; expectations deteriorate.
- Shipments & hours-worked drop, but employment & production improve.
- Pricing & wage pressures diminish.

Texas Manufacturing Activity Indexes Remain Negative in March

Robert Brusca

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A Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey has produced significantly and broadly better data in its March survey, both for sales and orders in March and for expectations for the month ahead in April.

Comparing sales to a year ago in March, the reading relative to February was slightly weaker ticking down to a +1 from +2; however, both readings are leagues better than the January reading of -23 for sales performance relative to a year ago. 

Orders compared to a year ago improved sharply in March to -2 from -25 in February and -32 in January.

Sales for the time of year in March moved up to a +12 reading from +6 in February and -3 in January.

The performance of stocks of goods relative to sales showed inventories at a + 10 in March compared to +8 in February and that compared to +23 in January. The stock-sales ratios data have to be analyzed in conjunction with the performance of sales trends. The notion that inventories are still improving and sales are improving can regarded as a positive development. The stronger increase in inventories back in January when sales were declining probably referred to unintended increases in inventories and that was not a positive or a strong reading at that time.

Looking ahead, expected April sales compared to a year ago have a + 9 reading compared to -18 in March and readings of -15 and -17 in the two earlier months.

Orders compared to a year ago have a net zero assessment in April; that compares to a -23 reading for March, -19 for February, and -23 for January. Once again, we see significant improving trends even though the net reading for April is only zero.

Expected sales adjusted for the time of year are at +13 for April, up from +11 in March and much stronger than -2 in February and +2 in January.

Stock sales ratios have a +6 reading for April, below 23 for March, 12 for February and 8 for January. But significantly, the reading is still positive and it's occurring at a time when sales are advancing more strongly and when orders are no longer falling.

In the far-right hand column, we can vet these readings for March for current data and for April for expected data compared to their historic trends. Even though we are looking at improvement, the state of the current readings is still relatively weak. Sales compared to a year ago have a 34-percentile standing, meaning that they have been weaker 34% of the time and stronger nearly 2/3 of the time. Orders compared to a year ago have a 41.6 percentile standing, closer to their median reading which occurs at a value of 50%. The time period being studied in this case is back to June 1998. Sales for the time of year are actually quite strong on this timeline; they have an 83.9 percentile standing indicating they are stronger less than 17% of the time. The stock sales ratio has an 18.5 percentile standing indicating that although positive it's still relatively low.

Turning to expectations for April, we once again find a slew of relatively weak readings with standings below their 50th percentile in all cases except for once again sales for time of year. Expected sales for time of year in April have an 84.6 percentile standing, quite similar to the standing for current performance in March. Sales compared to a year ago have 38.5 percentile standing and orders compared to a year ago have a 42.1 percentile standing; both of these are about equally weak below their key neutrality value of a 50 percentile standing. The stock sales ratio has a 13.7 percentile standing for its April expectations, slightly weaker than its current standing in March.

U.K. reports actual retail sales volume data through February; as of February, sales we're falling year-over-year by 3.5%, less weakness than the 5.1% 12-month decline logged in January. The 12-month percent change over the last 12 months has been on the order of 5% so U.K. real retail sales have been weak for some time. The queue standing for the U.K. retail sales series evaluates the year-over-year growth in sales volumes as at a 5.4 percentile standing – an extremely weak reading. This reading has been weaker only about 5% of the time. The CBI survey data are showing a lot more strength than that.

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The improvement of the U.K. sales and expected sales and orders data is a surprise and, of course, comes at a time when there are all kinds of challenges to the U.K. and global economies. Inflation is still running extremely hot in the U.K., where the central bank is raising rates. The Bank of England still has a good deal of work to do because inflation in the U.K. continues to be high. While the U.K. does not display any particular vulnerabilities to the new banking sector problems that have arisen, that's something that also mixes in with this environment and could complicate policymaking in the period ahead. This report from the Confederation of British Industry on retailing is a surprise and is a breath of fresh air. Still, the queue standings in the table remind us that retailing is hardly out of the woods. It has made some significant progress from earlier months, and sales for the time of year are especially buoyant. But that's not enough for us to shift to full blown optimism.

United Kingdom

U.K. CBI Survey - Retail Deterioration Reverses in March 

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In this Advance Report, Durable Goods Orders declined 1.0% (+2.2% y/y) in February after a 5.0% weakening in January, revised from -4.5%. Expectations had been for a 1.0% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

A 2.8% decline (+3.4% y/y) in transportation sector orders led last month’s orders decline, following a 14.0% January drop. Orders for nondefense aircraft & parts dropped 6.6% last month after plummeting 56.3% in January. Orders for defense aircraft also weakened 11.1%. It followed a 2.6% in January gain. Elsewhere in the transportation sector, motor vehicle & parts orders weakened 0.9% (+11.6% y/y) after holding roughly steady in January.  Subtracting transportation sector orders altogether, durable goods orders held steady (+1.7% y/y) after rising 0.4% in January.

Machinery orders weakened 0.5% in February (+3.0% y/y) after rising 0.7% in January. Computer & electronic product orders slipped 0.1% (3.6% y/y) after a 0.2% January improvement. Improving by 1.0% (8.3% y/y) were electrical equipment & appliance orders, which added to a 2.1% jump in January. Fabricated metals orders improved 0.4% (-1.0% y/y) after easing for six consecutive months. Primary metals orders rose 0.3% (0.5% y/y), following a 1.0% rise.

Capital goods orders fell 2.2% (-1.3% y/y) after a 13.7% decline as nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft improved 0.2% (4.3% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. Defense capital goods orders fell 7.4% (+1.1% y/y) following a 2.8% January gain.

Shipments of durable goods fell 0.6% (+5.6% y/y) after weakening 0.4% in January. Shipments of nondurable goods fell 0.5% (+3.2% y/y) after a 1.0% January gain. Total manufacturing shipments declined 0.5% (+4.4% y/y) in February, reversing the 0.3% January rise. Transportation equipment shipments declined 1.4% (+12.1% y/y) last month after a 2.5% drop. Excluding transportation, shipments of durable goods eased 0.1% (+2.7% y/y) following a 0.6% January rise. Core capital goods shipments held steady (+5.5% y/y) after increasing 0.9% in January.

Unfilled durable goods orders eased 0.1% last month (+5.5% y/y) after holding roughly steady in January. Manufacturing inventories slipped 0.1% (+4.6% y/y) in February after a like decline in January. Durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (4.7% y/y) while nondurable goods inventories fell 0.5% (+4.4% y/y) during February.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable goods, as well as nondurable goods, are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Unfilled orders and inventories are also included. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total orders fall for third month in last four.
- Orders are mixed across categories.
- Shipments & order backlogs ease; inventories rise.


U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline in February, as Aircraft Orders Tumble

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The S&P Global flash PMIs are continuing to show some resilience in the face of what have been some significant challenges. Commodity prices and inflation have been rising and high and in response central banks have been raising rates for about one year. The Russia-Ukraine war has been in progress for a year casting a pall of uncertainty across geopolitics as well as over the economic outlook. A more recent development is banking problems that have emerged, particularly in the United States and Europe and specifically in Switzerland. And, of course, it's too soon to see the impact of any banking sector problems in these data.

What we do see is stronger PMI readings across the board, except for the U.K.  We see stronger readings for the services sector everywhere, once again except the U.K.  There are weakening manufacturing responses for the European Monetary Union overall, for Germany, and for the U.K. in March. However, there is a widening count of sector or overall readings of weakness in progress and a surprising period of strengthening that came well into the rate hike cycle. In January, only three of the 18 readings registered month-to-month weakening. In February, there are four indications of month-to-month weakening. In March, there are five indications of month-to-month weakening. However, with 18 sectors represented in the table, the number recording weakness has only risen to five in March from three in January. In terms of changes in PMI data, it doesn't appear that tightening monetary policies are having all that much impact, certainly not a rapid impact on these economies.

If we look at the strengthening versus weakening responses over 12-month, 6-month and 3-month periods, we find overwhelming evidence of weakening over 12 months and over 6 months, not so much over 3 months. Over 3 months, Germany and the European Monetary Union show strengthening in all their measures along with the U.K.  France and Japan show weakening over 3 months compared to 6 months in two sectors with manufacturing strengthening in France and services strengthening in Japan. The U.S. is the exception to all these rules with 3-month, 6-month and 12-month weakness in all the sectors on all the horizons. Let me point out again that the 3-month, 6-month and 12-month averages are applied only to hard data and so they are applied to data beginning in February not the data from March.

If we set aside our obsession with the changes and look instead up the levels of the PMI data where the nomenclature focuses on values above 50 showing expansion and below 50 showing contraction, we find that services sectors in all six of these reporting units in March and in February show expansion. In contrast, manufacturing shows contraction - that is levels below 50 for the diffusion indexes- in March and February in all six cases. Regardless of whether manufacturing did a little bit better or worse on the month than the month before, manufacturing broadly is declining while services broadly are showing ongoing expansion.

The queue percentile standing is presented in the table. These readings measure the standings of the March PMI values across all values reported since January 2019. They show percentile readings below the 50% mark in manufacturing for all reporting entities in the table. The 50% mark in ranking represents the median for the period over which data are ranked. So what we are seeing is below median values for manufacturing everywhere with rankings clustered around the 20% mark although with France below the 10% level and the U.S. at the 13.7% level. Services rank above their 50th percentile everywhere with an extremely strong reading at the 98th percentile in Japan and a strong 82nd percentile in the European Monetary Union. Those compare to a relatively weak standing for services at about the 53% level in the U.S. and a 55th percentile standing in the U.K.

The table also presents diffusion point changes month-to-month and over 3 months as well as the change versus January 2020 before COVID struck. These data show that all manufacturing readings are weaker than they were in January 2020 while most service sector readings are stronger; however, the U.K. and Germany are exceptions with small service scepter decrements to their January 2020 levels in March. The U.S. has a service sector gain of only 0.3 points on that timeline. However, over 3 months, we see service sector readings mostly better, stronger by 2.3 to 8.4 points over that span. Japan shows the smallest composite increase at 2.3 points while the U.S. shows the largest composite increase over 3 months of 8.4 points.

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**Recent actions…**
These results do raise some questions about monetary policy and what it's going to be able to do. With banking sector problems evident, we have seen the European Central Bank continue to raise rates by 50 basis points. In the U.S. and the U.K., the central banks raised rates by only one quarter of one percentage point. The U.K. reported a worse than expected inflation number ahead of its policy meeting and still only raised rates by 25 basis points, while in the U.S. it appears that banking sector problems stayed the Fed's hand from a larger move. 

**The future**
The banking sector problems are being portrayed as causing central banks to walk a tightrope between fighting inflation and pursuing financial stability. I believe this dichotomy makes for good reading but bad economics. If we do have a banking crisis, we can expect that it's going to have an adverse impact on growth so that whatever central banks needed to do in terms of tightening interest rates before they need to do less now. That means that to the extent that central banks have muted their rate hikes in deference to potential banking sector problems it's likely that they are not running worse monetary policy relative to their inflation objective. But only time will tell on that. If banking sector issues don't appear to be dominant, central banks may need to go back to seeking higher levels of short-term interest rates. However, if the banking sector problem mushrooms, central banks may be unable to raise rates more and could even be forced into rate reductions. Until we see the nature of the banking problems, it's hard to know what monetary policy needs to do. For the time being, banks are flying blind. However, the regulatory authorities should have a pretty good grasp on the actual conditions that financial institutions face after the rapid policy tightening that we've seen in interest rates around the world. Central banks may not know the future, but they know more about the situation of banks than we do.

Flash PMIs Are Mostly Firmer in March

Andrew Cates

**US banks and the Fed**
Recent instability in the global banking sector has some regional and national nuances but the roots lie in the tightening campaigns that have been enacted by the world’s major central banks. Higher levels of policy rates, for example, have placed downward pressure on deposits as banks now need to compete for funds against the higher rates that are offered in money markets (see chart 1 below). These campaigns, however, have also raised funding difficulties from the heightened risk of losses on banks’ financial assets (e.g., government bonds and other securities) that also stem from higher rates.

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**US lending standards and private savings**
Fed Chairman Powell made a nod to the broader macroeconomic contagion this week from these issues by citing the recent tightening in bank lending standards. The Fed’s senior loan officer survey, that was published for Q1 in early February, had already revealed that a marked tightening in those standards has been underway in recent months. As chart 2 below further suggests, a tightening on this scale has typically invoked a de-leveraging phase in the US private sector, which stifles capital market activity, hampers consumption and investment growth, and often hastens the arrival of a recession as well.

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**Profitability in the German banking sector**
Another factor that’s magnified the latest spate of financial instability concerns the banking sector’s potential profitability. The flattening (and, in some cases, the inversion) of yield curves from the trend toward tighter monetary policy tends to increase bank funding costs relative to revenues that stem from longer-term lending. But while it was notable in the March ZEW survey of investment professionals this week that expectations for the banks (and the economy more generally) were marked down, the majority of respondents still expected an improvement in banking profitability over the next 6 months (see chart 3 below).

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**UK inflation relative to other major economies**
A key concern for policymakers now of course stems from the trade-off between bearing down on inflation on the one hand and preserving financial stability on the other. That trade-off is clearly easier to manage if a trend toward lower inflation has already become established. But while that may be true for some major economies it is not as obvious for others. And this was neatly demonstrated by this week’s much firmer-than-expected CPI inflation data for February from the UK (see chart 4 below) and the subsequent hike of 25bps in policy rates from the BoE - that was not universally voted for - that this positive surprise helped to cement.

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**Asia’s trade**
Aside from banking stress and the policy response another big theme that’s being closely monitored concerns China’s re-opening. At present, however, there is only patchy evidence to suggest this is generating a big impact. This week’s trade data from Asia, for example, and specifically from South Korea and Taiwan painted a still-bleak picture about the pace of global trade growth (see chart 5 below). Haver’s new seasonally-adjusted and working-day adjusted data for South Korea, for example, suggest that exports fell by 18.5% y/y in the first 20 days of March, after -6.5% y/y in February. Taiwan’s export orders, in the meantime, fell by 20.5% in February, after -1.7% y/y in January.

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**China’s air passenger traffic**
As for China itself, latest data for air passenger traffic suggest that domestic airline routes saw much larger passenger numbers in February following `a highly volatile phase from the periodic lockdowns over the last few years as well as the Lunar New Year holidays. International passenger numbers, in contrast, while recovering, are still some 90% below pre-pandemic levels.

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Financial market sentiment has improved over the last few days thanks to reassuring communications and targeted policy support from central banks together with a high profile acquisition of a troubled institution in the Swiss banking sector. Although the Fed has subsequently enacted a 25bps rate hike, Chairman Powell has further assuaged market fears by suggesting the US tightening cycle is nearly complete. Against that backdrop our first three charts this week dwell on financial instability and how this can be traced, in part, to central banks’ tightening campaigns. The trade-offs for policymakers, however, are now far more challenging, not least as inflation is proving to be far more sticky in some major economies (e.g. the UK) than expected (see chart 4). In the meantime, there remains little evidence yet of a revival in the world economy, notwithstanding the pick-up that might have been expected in some areas by now from China’s re-opening (see charts 5 and 6).

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Charts of the Week (Mar 24, 2023)

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New Business Loans, HH & Nonfin New Term Deposit (Feb)

Retail Trade Headlines (Feb), Retail Trade Detail (Jan)

Roy Morgan Cons Confidence (Mar), Retail Trade (Feb)

Official Reserve Assets (Feb), NEER (Feb-Prelim)

Pension Accumulation, Bank Loans, Lending and Deposits Rates (Feb)

Capital Issuance (Feb), CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Mar)

New Loans to HHs and Nonfinancial Corps (Feb)

Financial Accounts (Q4), Balance Sheet of Credit Institutions (Feb)

Construction Cost Index, MFI Balance Sheet (Feb), Macroeconomic Projections (Q1)