Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Andrew Cates

**The Blue Chip interest rate consensus**
The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey suggests that monetary policy across most major advanced economies is expected to loosen modestly over the next six months. Central banks in the US, Canada, UK, Australia, and the euro area are all forecast to cut rates to varying degrees, with Australia expected to deliver the largest reduction. In contrast, Japan continues to stand out as the only major economy where forecasters see scope for a slight increase in rates, highlighting its unique position in the global policy cycle. Overall, the chart reflects a broad but uneven tilt towards monetary easing as policymakers respond to softer inflation and growth signals.

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**The US dollar and data surprises** 
This next chart shows that the recent bout of US dollar weakness has coincided with a period in which US economic data surprises have turned more negative relative to the euro area. The surprise index differential between the US and euro area —measuring US growth surprises minus euro surprises—has declined, pointing to a run of weaker-than-expected US data and stronger euro area outturns. Historically, this has tended to pull the euro higher relative to the dollar. However, the scale of the dollar’s recent slide appears larger than the data surprises alone would imply, suggesting that other forces are potentially weighing on the currency as well.

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**US stagflation risk**
Latest ISM manufacturing survey data highlight a worrying decoupling between input costs and underlying demand that points to potential stagflation pressures in the US economy. Historically, the ISM New Orders Index and the Prices Paid Index have tended to move broadly in sync, reflecting cycles where stronger demand drives both production and cost pressures higher. However, the chart shows that while prices paid have recently rebounded sharply, new orders have remained subdued and stuck near contractionary territory. This breakdown suggests that firms are facing rising input costs without a corresponding pickup in demand—an imbalance that could be amplified by US tariff measures, which tend to push up costs for imported materials and components while weighing on new orders through weaker trade flows.

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**US Supply Chain Risks** 
Added to this, the number of vessels queuing at the Los Angeles and Long Beach harbours has climbed to elevated levels in recent weeks, highlighting supply chain bottlenecks on the US West Coast. While various factors may be driving this congestion—including seasonal trade patterns and shifts in global shipping routes—recent tariff measures could be contributing as well. New or increased tariffs sometimes distort normal trade flows by prompting importers to front-load shipments ahead of cost increases or reroute sourcing strategies in ways that strain particular ports.

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**Global warming** 
Pivoting to more structural issues, the next chart highlights the persistent upward trend in global surface temperature anomalies over the past century, with both land and ocean temperatures now averaging well over one degree Celsius. This long-term warming signal continues to manifest in extreme weather events and record-breaking heat waves, including the unusually high temperatures that have swept parts of Europe in recent days, pushing June readings to historic highs in several regions.

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**Climate change and productivity** 
This final chart illustrates the projected impact of heat stress on labour productivity in Europe under current climate policy scenarios, highlighting how rising temperatures could steadily erode worker efficiency over the coming decades. As shown, the median estimates from the Climate Analytics group suggest that productivity losses could deepen from around 0.3 percentage points today to nearly 0.9 percentage points by mid-century if climate conditions remain unchanged. These figures reflect the physical limits of the human body’s capacity to perform work in increasingly hot and humid environments, a challenge that will become more acute if climate change continues on its current path. With recent record-high June temperatures across parts of Europe underscoring the reality of more frequent heat extremes, these projections serve as a clear reminder of the economic stakes involved in addressing climate risks and investing in adaptation measures to protect labour productivity and economic resilience.

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Financial markets have remained generally buoyant in recent days, with global equity indices advancing on the back of relatively upbeat global growth data, benign European inflation readings and the prospect of further policy easing from major central banks. At the same time, the US dollar has continued to weaken, reflecting a run of disappointing US economic data and rising investor concerns about the fiscal outlook, even as European growth surprises have turned more positive. This divergence, combined with the prospect of lower US policy rates relative to some (though not all) peers, has added to the dollar’s drift lower (charts 1 and 2). Supply chain strains—highlighted by elevated vessel queues at US West Coast ports—also feed into the narrative that US tariff measures may be contributing to sticky input costs and stagflation risks (charts 3 and 4). Meanwhile, record temperatures in parts of Europe this week have reinforced the climate challenge facing policymakers, with the final two charts illustrating how rising global temperatures and heat stress could increasingly weigh on productivity and growth potential if left unchecked. With trading volumes light ahead of the July 4th holiday and markets awaiting tomorrow’s US non-farm payrolls report, the interplay between softer US data, resilient equities, a weaker dollar, and climate-related risks remains firmly in focus.

Charts of the Week: Headwinds and Heatwaves

Tom Moeller

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The ADP National Employment Report reported that nonfarm private sector payrolls declined 33,000 (+1.1% y/y) during June after rising 29,000 in May, revised from 37,000 and increasing an unrevised 60,000 in April. It was the first monthly decline since March 2023. A 110,000 June rise had been expected in the in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) declined 47,000 (+0.4% y/y), after falling 13,000 in May. These were the first back-to-back monthly declines since the end of 2023. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) declined 15,000 (1.1% y/y), after rising 46,000 in May, revised from 49,000. Large business hiring (500+ employees) increased 30,000 (2.7% y/y) after easing 4,000 in May.

Goods-producing employment rose 32,000 (1.4% y/y) in June after falling a minimally revised 3,000 in May. Manufacturing jobs increased 15,000, unchanged y/y, following a 6,000 decline in May. The number of construction sector jobs rose 9,000 (2.8% y/y) after increasing 6,000 in May. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 8,000 (4.3% y/y) in June after falling 3,000 in May.

The decline in payrolls overall reflected weakness in the service sector where the number of service-producing jobs declined 66,000 last month (+1.1% y/y) after increasing 32,000 in May, revised from 36,000. Professional & business services employment fell 56,000 (+0.2% y/y), after declining 13,000 in May. These weak readings came after a 1,000 April gain and a 46,000 March increase. Education & health services employment declined 52,000 (+0.8% y/y), the third consecutive month of decline. Employment in the financial industry weakened 14,000 (+1.8% y/y) last month, after rising 17,000 in May.

Offsetting these declines, leisure & hospitality employment increased 32,000 in June (3.2% y/y), following a 43,000 May gain. Monthly increases have averaged 36,000 this year. Trade, transportation & utilities employment increased 14,000 (0.3% y/y) after falling 8,000 in May. Information sector employment rose 5,000 (0.2% y/y) after a 4,000 May increase and a 10,000 April decline. Employment in “other” services sectors rose 5,000 in June (2.9% y/y), the same as in May.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" slipped to 4.4% y/y in June, down from a high of 7.8% in September 2022. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y, steady with May. Construction sector pay also rose a steady 4.6% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.5% y/y last month. Financial sector earnings rose an improved 5.2% y/y, while education & health services pay rose a lessened 4.6% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay increased 4.7% y/y in June. Professional & business service sector pay increased a lessened 4.2% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay, up 4.2% y/y. Information pay rose a lessened 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.8% y/y in June, down from a high of 16.1% y/y in April 2022.

By region, employment in the Midwest declined 24,000 (+1.3% y/y) to 28,761 million after a 17,000 rise in May. Employment in the West, declined 20,000 to 31,363 million (+0.5% y/y) last month, and reversed a 31,000 rise during May. Employment in the Northeast fell 3,000 to 24,116 million (+1.4% y/y) in June, following a 23,000 decline in May. Partially offsetting these declines, in the South employment increased 13,000 to 50,092 million (1.0% y/y) in June, after rising 2,000 in May.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment declines in several service industries; factory & building industry jobs rise.
- Wage growth moderates further.
- Small- & medium-sized shed jobs.

U.S. ADP Payroll Employment Unexpectedly Declines in June

Winnie Tapasanun

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Mortgage applications rose 2.7% w/w (24.7% y/y) in the week ending June 27 after a 1.1% rise in the week ending June 20, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the third w/w rise in four weeks to the index level of 257.5, the highest since the April 11 week. Applications for loans to purchase a house inched up 0.1% (15.7% y/y) in the June 27 week, the first w/w increase in three weeks, following a 0.4% decline in the June 20 week. Applications for loan refinancing advanced 6.5% (39.6% y/y) in the June 27 week, up for the third week in four, after a 3.0% rebound in the previous week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 9bps to 6.97% in the week ending June 27 after rising to 7.06% in the week ending June 20; it was up from a low of 6.29% in the September 20 week but down from a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages declined 6bps to 6.23% in the June 27 week after easing to 6.29% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the September 20 week but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans dropped 16bps to 6.89% in the June 27 week after rising to 7.05% in the prior week; it was up from a low of 6.57% in the September 13 week but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. These mentioned three rates were at the lowest since the April 4 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM decreased 15bps to 6.21% in the June 27 week, the lowest since the May 2 week, after rising to 6.36% in the previous week; it was above a low of 5.84% in the September 13 week but below a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 40.1% of total applications in the week ending June 27 from 38.4% in the week ending June 20, registering the fifth consecutive w/w rise and the highest since the April 11 week; nevertheless, that was well below a peak of 55.7% in the September 20 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity, up for the first week in three, increased to 7.8% in the June 27 week, the highest since the May 2 week, after declining to 6.9% in the prior week; it was up from a low of 4.7% in the January 3 week but below its recent high of 9.6% in the April 11 week and a high of 10.7% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The average size of a mortgage loan, up for the first time in three weeks, rose 3.5% w/w (4.4% y/y) to $391,500 in the June 27 week, the highest level since the May 9 week, after a 0.5% decline to $378,300 in the June 20 week. The average size of a purchase loan recovered 1.7% (2.1% y/y) to $443,500 in the June 27 week, the highest level since the May 16 week, reversing a 0.6% decrease to $436,300 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage, up for the third week in four, jumped 10.0% (17.1% y/y) to $313,700 in the June 27 week, the highest level since the May 2 week, on top of a 1.2% rebound to $285,100 in the previous week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications edge up 0.1% w/w; refinancing loan applications jump 6.5% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans drops to 6.97%, the lowest since the Apr. 4 week.
- Average loan size rebounds to the highest level since the May 9 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise 2.7% in the June 27 Week

Robert Brusca

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The EU unemployment rate fell to within a tick of its all-time low in April at 5.9% and stayed there in May. In the European Monetary Union (EMU), the unemployment rate in April fell from 6.4% in March to 6.2% in April, its all-time low; then in May it ticked up to 6.3%. This can hardly be construed as a weakening of the European labor market.

At the same time, the EMU HICP has registered 2% growth year-over-year in June. In May it was at 1.9% with the core up at a 2.4% rise year-over-year. In June, Italian and Spanish core readings are 2.1% and 2.2%, respectively. In Germany, ex-energy inflation is at 2.5%. The core for the EMU is not yet available but clearly inflation, broadly considered, is very close to touching all the bases the ECB wants it to touch. And at the same time, Europe’s rate of unemployment is at or near all-time lows at least since the EMU was formed. That looks almost like policy nirvana.

The Monetary Union is experiencing low inflation rates even for those countries (largely Mediterranean countries) that had stubbornly high inflation rates in the past. Interestingly, those formerly high-inflation countries have substantially reduced their rates of unemployment. In the U.S., it was the long low, extra-low, inflation span after the Great recession that brought the inflation rate down slowly but eventually to 50–60-year lows. The U.S. rate got to 3.5% under Trump and briefly to 3.4% under Biden. Now with similar inflation progress -and for the EMU, there is a long train of progress not looking just since Covid but looking at the collective progress since the EMU was formed.

Among the 12 EMU members listed in the table, only three Luxembourg, Finland, and Austria have unemployment rates above their median rate compared to data since 1994. Spain’s unemployment rate is still in double digits at 10.8% but is much lower than it used to be. The Greek unemployment rate is at 7.9%; Portugal’s is at 6.3%. Spain’s unemployment rate is in the 15th percentile of its ordered queue of rates; the Greek rate has been lower only 3% of the time; in Portugal, the current rate has been lower less than 20% of the time. Low inflation and low unemployment go hand in hand. But when they diverge, the solution is not to coddle unemployment. It is to backdown inflation to allow the economy to move forward thereafter and prosper with lower inflation and lower unemployment in the future. I don’t think this lesson has been broadly enough learned, but looking at Europe and the U.S. the lesson simply presents itself with exceptional clarity.

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Unemployment Rates Remain Low, Stable

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U.S. light vehicle sales dipped 0.5% (+2.4% y/y) to 15.65 million units (SAAR) in June after falling 8.8% to 15.73 million units in May. The retreat in June vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through May, which compared to 2.1% growth last year.

Sales declines were mixed last month. Light truck sales fell 0.4% (+4.9% y/y) during June to 12.97 million units (SAAR), after falling 8.9% to 13.02 million in May and weakening 1.7% in April to 14.29 million. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.8% (+4.6% y/y) to 9.99 million units, after falling 7.5% in May. Sales of imported light trucks rose 4.6% (5.7% y/y) to 2.97 million units, following a 14.5% fall during May.

Trucks’ record 83.0% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 82.8% in May and 80.8% in June of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales rose a slight 0.4% last month, down 8.5% y/y, to 2.69 million units (SAAR) following an 8.8% May decline. Purchases of domestically-produced cars were off 2.5% (-9.2% y/y) last month to 1.98 million units, after declining 8.6% in May. Sales of imported autos rose 9.2% (-6.6% y/y) to 0.71 million units, following a 12.2% May decline.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was increased from 22.2% in May. It compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market rose to 26.4% last month and compared to 25.9% in June of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market rose to 22.9% last month after falling to 21.8% in May.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales ease while auto sales improve.
- Domestic sales tumble but imports increase.
- Imports' market share recovers May decline.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Slip in June

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