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Mortgage applications declined 0.8% w/w (-5.6% y/y) in the week ending April 3. The weekly decline eased relative to the prior three weeks, when mortgage applications dropped by 10.4% w/w (+14.2% y/y) in the week ending March 27, and by 10.5% and 10.9% in the March 20 and 13 weeks, respectively, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house rose 1.1% w/w (-6.7% y/y) in the April 3 week, after declining 2.6% w/w (+0.8% y/y) in the week ending March 27.  Applications for loan refinancing dropped by a smaller 2.8% w/w (-4.3% y/y) in the latest week, following weekly declines of 17.3% (+33.2% y/y) in the March 27 week, 14.6% in the March 20 week, and of 18.5% in the week ending March 13.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan declined 8bps to 6.68% in the week ending April 3 from 6.76% in the week ending March 27 and after having risen by 52bps since the February 27 week. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 1bp to 6.09% in the latest week from 6.08% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate declined 6bps to 6.65% in the week ending April 3 from 6.71% in the March 27 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM eased 3bps to 5.85% in the latest week from 5.88% in the week ending March 27.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan declined to 44.3% of total applications in the week of April 3, from 45.3% in the March 27 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.6% in the week ending April 3 from 8.0% in the week ending March 27.

The average size of a mortgage loan edged up 0.2% w/w (-9.1% y/y) to $390,100 in the week ending April 3, after declining 1.3% w/w (-1.9% y/y) to $389,200 in the week ending March 27. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.3% w/w (-0.9% y/y) to $448,100 in the latest week, following a decline of 0.8% w/w (+0.4% y/y) to $449,400 in the March 27 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage edged up 0.1% w/w (-20.7% y/y) to $317,000 in the week ending April 3 after declining 5.5% w/w (+0.3% y/y) to $316,600 in the March 27 week. From the week ending February 27 to the week ending March 27, the average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage had declined 21.8%.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Signs of stabilization in mortgage applications emerged in the latest week.
- Applications for loans to purchase posted a small increase, while applications for loan refinancing posted a small decline in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans eased 8bps to 6.68%. 
- Average loan size edged up.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Edged Down in the April 3 Week

Winnie Tapasanun

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New orders for durable goods fell a more-than-expected 1.4% m/m in February, the fourth monthly fall in five months, after decreases of 0.5% in January (0.0% initially) and 0.9% in December (unrevised), according to today’s advance report by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 1.0% m/m February decline. The year-on-year rate eased to 7.3% in February, the lowest since October, from 9.9% in January, though remaining positive since January 2025. Durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.8% (6.0% y/y) in February, the 10th straight m/m rise, after a 0.3% increase in January. Durable goods orders excluding defense fell 1.2% (+7.3% y/y) following a 0.2% January rebound.

The m/m fall in February durable goods orders was led by a 28.6% m/m plunge in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts following decreases of 1.7% in January and 22.7% in December. Orders for defense aircraft & parts fell 3.8% after a 27.2% January slump and an 11.8% December jump. Orders excluding aircraft rose 1.2% (6.6% y/y), the seventh m/m rise in eight months, after a 0.3% January increase.

Durable goods orders for transportation fell 5.4% (+10.1% y/y) in February, the fourth m/m fall in five months, after a 1.9% decline in January. In addition to February m/m drops in nondefense and defense aircraft orders, motor vehicles & parts orders rose 3.1% (7.6% y/y), the third consecutive m/m rise, after a 0.7% January gain. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances & components slipped 0.1% (+5.0% y/y) following a 1.0% January decline, while orders for primary metals advanced 2.2% (10.2% y/y), the third successive m/m increase, after a 1.1% January rise. Machinery orders climbed 1.5% (9.2% y/y), the 10th straight m/m gain, on top of a 0.6% January increase. Orders for fabricated metal products rose 0.5% (5.4% y/y), the seventh m/m rise in eight months, following a flat January reading. Orders for all other durable goods rose 0.5% (1.3% y/y), up for the sixth consecutive month, after a 0.3% January rise. Meanwhile, orders for computers & electronic products were essentially unchanged (+7.5% y/y) after five straight m/m gains.

Capital goods orders fell 6.6% (+11.5% y/y) in February, the fourth m/m fall in five months, after a 3.0% drop in January. Nondefense capital goods orders slid 7.4% (+9.5% y/y), the fifth m/m slide in six months, after a 1.0% January decrease. Core capital goods orders (i.e., nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft) rebounded 0.6% (5.1% y/y), the seventh m/m rise in eight months, following a 0.4% January decline. Defense capital goods orders fell 1.1% (+25.1% y/y), down for the fourth time in five months, after a 14.2% January drop. Notably, core capital goods shipments (core capex shipments)—a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts—rose 0.9% (5.7% y/y), the fifth m/m increase in six months, after no change in January.

Shipments of all manufactured goods advanced 1.4% (3.5% y/y) in February, the fourth m/m gain in five months, after a 0.7% increase in January. Durable goods shipments rose 1.3% (6.8% y/y), up for the fifth time in six months, after a 0.9% January gain. Nondurable goods shipments climbed 1.4% (0.1% y/y), the third straight m/m rise, after a 0.5% January increase.

Unfilled orders of durable goods edged up 0.1% (11.1% y/y) in February, the seventh straight m/m gain, after a 0.6% rise in January. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders increased 0.2% (1.9% y/y), also up for the seventh consecutive month, following a 0.3% January rise.

Manufacturing inventories inched up 0.1% (0.8% y/y) in February, the fourth straight m/m increase, after a 0.1% uptick in January. Durable goods inventories edged up 0.1% (1.8% y/y) in February, the fifth consecutive m/m increase, after a 0.2% rise in January, while nondurable goods inventories were virtually unchanged (-0.8% y/y) following two successive m/m declines.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Headline orders -1.4% (+7.3% y/y) in Feb., fourth m/m decline in five mths.
- Nondefense aircraft & parts -28.6% m/m following January’s -1.7%.
- Transportation orders -5.4%, down for the fourth time in five mths.; orders ex transportation +0.8%, 10th straight m/m rise.
- Core capital goods shipments +0.9%, fifth m/m gain in six mths.
- Durable goods shipments +1.3%; unfilled orders +0.1%; inventories +0.1%.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall in February, Led by a Plunge in Nondefense Aircraft Orders

Robert Brusca

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The S&P composite PMIs in March weakened decisively across the board, with only four of 25 reporters showing an improvement in March compared to February. February had been a strong month, with only 10 of 25 monthly composite indicators weaker on a month-to-month basis. In January, 11 of the composite indicators weakened month-to-month. So, between January and March, the proportion of countries showing composite indicators as weaker month-to-month went up from 40% to 44% and then all the way up to 80%, a huge shift for the worse.

**Sequential trends**
Sequentially, looking at 12-months compared to 12-months ago, six-months compared to 12-months, and three-months compared to six-months, we see a similar progression. Over 12 months, 43.5% of the reporters were weaker; over six months, 39.1% of them were weaker period-to-period. And then over three months, that proportion jumped to 65.2% that were weaker month-to-month.

The war in Iran has been reflected in these numbers. We see it very clearly for the March data, the first full month after the attack. The average and median total PMI readings deteriorated from February to March: the average readings fell from 52.6 in February to 50.7 in March, and the median readings fell from 52.1 to 51.4.

The number of reporters with PMI values below 50, indicating contraction, jumped to 9 in March from 4 in February and 5 in January.

The data show that there has been broad weakening among these reporters. In addition, there has been a sharp rise in the number of them reporting outright economic contraction. The composite indexes are showing not just weakness month-to-month, but actual stepped-up contraction.

The queue percentile standings are also substantially degraded, with only eight of the 25 queue metrics that are reported above their historic medians on data back to January 2022. And the countries that are reporting good performance are often very small countries. Ghana and Zambia show very strong queue percentile standings. Sweden shows a high percentile standing. However, Japan and Hong Kong also show percentile standings in their 90th percentile, and Germany's standing has gotten to its 70th percentile. However, if oil prices climb and shortages in a variety of supply chains begin to be impacted because of the lack of oil, and in some cases, fertilizer and other commodities, we are going to start to see weakness spread.

In some developing countries, there's already a more generalized economic weakness being caused by fuel rationing because prices are so high. If the Strait of Hormuz is not open soon, these conditions are going to get demonstrably worse. Even though the U.S. economy has done relatively well and is unaffected by oil supply shortages—although prices in the U.S. certainly have risen—the U.S. composite PMI index has only a 19.6 percentile standing, not a terribly good place to say that the economy is largely unaffected by these events. The U.S. composite PMI has fallen for two months in a row.

Not surprisingly, three countries have reported the lowest composite PMI readings since 2022 when these rankings began. They are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, all of whom are in the middle of this Middle East conflict.

The European Monetary Union posted a queue standing above its 50th percentile, at 54.9. And its diffusion reading on the month at 50.5 is similar to the U.S. at 50.3, indicating that economic activity is still expanding in the community—but barely. Both France and Italy logged composite PMI readings below 50; France has generated three sub-50 diffusion readings in a row, and in addition, three more of them sequentially over three months, six months, and 12 months. The queue standings may overstate the case for resiliency in some instances. There was plenty of weakness to go around across economies in March.

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Composite PMIs Retreat Broadly

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The U.S. ISM Services PMI decreased to 54.0 in March following a 2.3-point rise to 56.1 in February (the highest reading since July 2022), according to today’s report by the Institute for Supply Management, indicating expansion in the services sector for the 21st consecutive month but at a slower pace. The March index, while above 50.8 in March 2025 and a low of 49.4 in June 2024, remained below a high of 55.5 in October 2024 and a record-high 67.5 in November 2021. The 12-month average was 52.3, pointing to continued growth in the U.S. services sector. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 54.9 for March.

Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing reading. This index fell to 53.8 in March after a 2.0-point increase to 55.7 in February, signaling expansion for the 10th straight month, albeit at a slower rate. The latest reading was above 50.6 in March 2025 and a low of 49.3 in June 2024, while remaining below a record-high 66.7 in November 2021. These series date back to July 1997.

In the latest services survey, the business activity index declined to 53.9 in March after rising to 59.9 in February, indicating continued expansion in business activity for 21 consecutive months, though at the slowest pace since September. The index was above a low of 50.0 in June 2024 but below a record-high 70.9 in November 2021. In March, 22.8% of respondents (NSA) reported higher activity while 14.6% reported an activity decline. The new orders index rose to 60.6 in March after increasing to 58.6 in February, reflecting expansion in new orders for the 10th straight month and the highest level since February 2023. The index was above its recent low of 47.2 in May 2025 but below a high of 61.0 in February 2023 and a record-high 69.2 in October 2021. In March, 32.0% of respondents (NSA) reported higher new orders while a lessened 12.6% reported declines. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index (NSA) increased to 56.2 in March from 53.9 in February, indicating slower supplier delivery performance for the 16th straight month after one month in faster territory in November 2024.

On the labor front, the employment index fell to 45.2 in March after rising to 51.8 in February, showing employment activity in the services sector contracted for the first time since November and at the lowest level since December 2023. The latest reading was above a low of 43.5 in December 2023 but below a high of 54.1 in June 2023 and a high of 58.9 in April 2021. A reduced 10.7% of respondents (NSA) indicated higher employment in March while an increased 18.4% reported declines.

On the inflation front, the prices index jumped to 70.7 in March from 63.0 in February, indicating prices paid by services organizations for materials and services had risen (i.e., above 50) since June 2017 and at the fastest pace since October 2022. The index was above a low of 53.9 in March 2024 and a low of 55.1 in June 2023 but significantly below a peak of 83.7 in March 2022. An increased 45.7% of respondents (NSA) reported higher prices in March while only 1.2% reported price declines.

Additionally, the new export orders index dropped to 50.7 in March from 57.2 in February, showing new export orders expanded for the third time in four months but at a slower rate. The imports index rose to 55.2 in March from 51.8 in February, registering the third expansion in four months and the highest level since January 2024. The inventories index declined to 54.8 in March from 56.4 in February, indicating inventories expanded for the fourth time in five months but at a slower pace. The inventory sentiment index slipped to 54.3 in March from 55.3 in February, showing continued expansion since May 2023. The backlog of orders index fell to 53.6 in March from 55.9 in February, marking the second successive month of expansion following 11 straight months of contraction. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector; below 50 suggests contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- ISM Services PMI at 54.0 in Mar., down 2.1 pts. from Feb.; below forecasts but above the 12-month avg. of 52.3.
- Business Activity (53.9, 21st straight month of expansion); New Orders (60.6, 10th consecutive month of expansion and fastest since Feb. ’23); Employment (45.2, first contraction since Nov.); Supplier Deliveries (56.2 vs. 53.9).
- Prices Index (70.7) indicates prices rising since June ’17, the fastest pace since Oct. ’22.

U.S. ISM Services PMI Slips in March, Still Indicating Expansion for the 21st Straight Month

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we examine the first-round price impacts of the surge in oil prices stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict in Asia. Despite recent rhetoric and reports suggesting a potentially swift resolution, the conflict continues to unfold, with a ceasefire hanging in the balance, and with some measures of shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz still reduced to a trickle. At the same time, crude oil prices have been whipsawing amid shifting market perceptions about the persistence of the current supply shock (chart 1). The initial effects of higher oil prices are already showing up in hard data, particularly in energy- and fuel-related inflation across Indonesia, South Korea, and Vietnam (chart 2). In response, several governments have rolled out sizeable subsidy programmes to cushion rising energy costs, though these measures come with significant fiscal strain.

We also assess recent consumer inflation expectations in South Korea and Taiwan, which show early signs of edging higher (chart 3), although there is as yet no clear evidence of a meaningful unanchoring. To add further nuance, our latest Blue Chip survey suggests that most panellists expect only a limited and temporary pass-through from higher energy prices to core inflation, though a non-trivial minority anticipate a more persistent effect (chart 4). On the policy front, respondents broadly expect central banks to delay easing while avoiding outright tightening, with outcomes likely to diverge across regions (chart 5). In the near term, upcoming policy decisions in India, New Zealand, and South Korea—alongside other key data releases—will provide a useful test of these expectations (chart 6).

**The Middle East conflict**
The Middle East conflict continues to rage, with IMF-tracked shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz still reduced to a trickle. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remain volatile, gyrating alongside shifting perceptions over how soon normal oil flows might resume. In reality, there is still little sign of a substantive resolution, and no agreement to fully reopen the strait appears imminent, suggesting that oil flows are likely to remain constrained at low levels in the near term. That said, some investors are closely monitoring developments following reports of discussions around a potential 45-day ceasefire, which could pave the way toward a more lasting resolution. Until then, and absent any meaningful supply relief, crude oil prices—and by extension, energy-related inflation—are likely to face continued upward pressure, particularly for oil-dependent, importing economies.

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**Initial price impacts**
The initial inflation concerns among policymakers and investors stemming from the surge in oil prices are now beginning to show up in the data, as illustrated in chart 2. The latest March readings—capturing the period after the onset of the Middle East conflict—already point to a sharp acceleration in energy-related prices on a year-ago basis. Indonesia’s energy CPI basket has risen by around 9%, while diesel prices in South Korea have jumped 17%. Vietnam’s retail gasoline prices have seen an even more pronounced increase, at roughly 25.6%. Given the scale of these price surges, and their direct impact on everyday essentials—particularly fuel for daily commutes and broader economic activity—governments across Asia have begun rolling out sizeable subsidy programmes. These measures, often implemented at significant fiscal cost, aim to cushion the burden on households and firms. For instance, South Korea’s finance ministry proposed a supplementary budget of around $17.3 billion in late March to support low-income households, youth, and businesses amid higher oil prices, with approval expected by April 10. Meanwhile, Indonesia has allocated approximately $22.4 billion toward energy subsidies and support for selected energy and utilities firms to help keep prices affordable.

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**Consumer inflation expectations**
What policymakers are likely to focus on—beyond the immediate price impacts—is how the recent surge in oil prices feeds into inflation expectations. If left unanchored, these expectations could pose a far greater challenge than the supply-driven price shock itself, including reduced monetary policy effectiveness in reining in inflation and the risk of a self-fulfilling inflation cycle—though it is worth noting that such dynamics are not yet close to materialising. So far, there are some early, albeit inconclusive, signs that near-term consumer inflation expectations are beginning to drift higher in certain economies. As shown in chart 3, one-year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 2.7% in March, while in Taiwan, consumer sentiment regarding domestic price trends over the next six months has turned notably more pessimistic relative to overall confidence.

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**The latest Blue Chip survey**
Turning to investor perspectives on how higher energy prices may feed into inflation, our special questions in the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts (BCFF) survey offer some useful nuance. As shown in chart 4, around two-thirds of panellists expect only a limited and temporary pass-through from higher oil prices to core inflation. That said, a non-trivial minority (31%) anticipate a more moderate and persistent pass-through. This is notable given the focus on core inflation, and underscores how energy prices can generate second-round effects even in typically non-energy components, reflecting the pervasive role of energy in everyday economic activity—from manufacturing to the upkeep of a wide range of goods and services.

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Delving deeper, we also asked panellists about their views on the prospective path of central bank policy should energy-driven inflation prove persistent. As shown in chart 5, responses broadly coalesce around two themes: central banks are likely to delay easing rather than tighten, and policy responses will vary meaningfully across regions. The former is already playing out to some extent in recent central bank decisions across Asia, with several explicitly citing the ongoing Middle East conflict as a reason to remain vigilant on inflation and refrain from easing policy prematurely. As for the latter, there are already signs of divergence in how different central banks are approaching the situation.

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**The week ahead**
Looking to the week ahead, there will be ample opportunities to assess whether investor expectations for central bank policy moves play out across Asia, with several rate decisions due—most notably in India, New Zealand, and South Korea. Also on the docket are China’s March CPI print and a range of Japan-related releases. Policymakers are likely to remain focused on balancing inflation control with supporting growth and maintaining currency stability. For now, and absent offsetting domestic factors, expectations for further near-term easing have been tempered by rising inflation risks. In China, recent CPI readings point to a modest pickup, while producer price deflation has begun to ease after a prolonged period of weak or negative inflation.

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Economic Letter from Asia: First-Round Effects

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