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Nonfarm payrolls rose 115k in April, exceeding an expected gain of 70k. The increase represented the second consecutive advance, ending a nine-month string of up and down shifts. The erratic changes in prior months had left average job growth close to zero, but the new results showed a solid six-month average of 55k.

The soft results in prior months reflected respectable gains in the health-care sector that were largely offset by declines in other areas. However, job growth excluding health care also rose for the second consecutive month, and the six-month average moved into positive territory (although barely so, 1K). The construction industry has done well recently, and employment in wholesale and retail trade has improved as well. Employment in the business-services sector has inched up recently. Employment remained weak in financial services and information (motion pictures, publishing, internet-based services).

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, but when calculated with more precision it showed an increase of almost 0.1 percentage point (4.337% versus 4.258% in March). The steady reading was soft in that both the labor force and employment as measured by the household survey declined, with the drop in employment exceeding the shift in the size of the labor force (-226K and -92k, respectively). The broad unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage point to 8.2%, but it remained below the recent high of 8.7% in November of last year. A jump in the number of individuals working part time for economic reasons dominated a drop in the number of individuals marginally attached to the labor force (those that would like a job but are not actively searching).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published an increase of 0.2% in average hourly earnings, but the change almost rounded down to 0.1% (0.161%). Most monthly changes in the past year have been in a range of 0.2% to 0.4%, with a slight downward drift developing recently. The year-over-year change in April totaled 3.6% versus readings close to 4.0% in most of 2025.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Nonfarm payrolls advance for the second consecutive month.
- Unemployment rate steady; average hourly earnings tame.

April Employment: Signs of Improvement

Andrew Cates

**Resilient Output, Rising Prices**
Against the backdrop of ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the associated rise in energy prices, global manufacturing activity has shown a notable degree of resilience. The latest PMI data suggest that output continues to expand at a steady pace, defying what might typically be expected in the face of a renewed energy shock. Several factors appear to be underpinning this resilience, including continued momentum in AI-related investment, a partial easing of earlier US tariff-related disruptions, and a sustained ramp-up in defence-related production. At the same time, however, the chart highlights a clear firming in output prices, pointing to a re-emergence of cost pressures within the global manufacturing sector. This combination—resilient activity alongside rising price pressures—reinforces the view that the current shock is feeding more into inflation dynamics than into an outright contraction in global output, at least for now.

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**Supply Chains Stir Again**
If the resilience of global manufacturing suggests that activity is holding up, this next chart highlights where the strain is re-emerging—on the supply side. Both the Baltic Dry Index and broader measures of global supply chain pressure have begun to move higher again, pointing to a renewed tightening in shipping capacity and logistics conditions. While nowhere near the extremes seen during the pandemic, the recent upturn is notable in the context of heightened geopolitical risk, particularly given the vulnerability of key shipping routes through the Middle East. Disruptions to energy flows and maritime traffic, alongside rising insurance and freight costs, are feeding through into global trade costs more broadly.

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**Oil Production Constraints**
If the previous chart highlights rising supply chain frictions, this one shows how those pressures are now feeding directly into production decisions. Crude oil output among key producers has begun to adjust in response to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, with countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and the UAE facing growing constraints on their ability to export. With shipping routes impaired, production has increasingly been diverted into storage—but this is not a limitless buffer. As storage capacity tightens, producers are effectively forced to scale back output, not because of weak demand, but due to logistical bottlenecks. This dynamic helps explain the recent softness in aggregate production levels and underscores the supply-driven nature of the current energy shock. Looking ahead, even a reopening of key routes may not immediately normalize flows. Elevated inventories, constrained tanker capacity, and evolving OPEC dynamics—not least the UAE’s departure—suggest that supply adjustment could remain uneven, prolonging upward pressure on energy prices and, by extension, global inflation.

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**A More Hawkish Bias** 
If supply-side pressures are beginning to reassert themselves, the implications for monetary policy are becoming increasingly evident. The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey points to a growing consensus that policy rates are more likely to move higher over the next twelve months across most major economies, with expectations for further tightening particularly evident in Japan, the euro area, Canada and Australia. This reflects a broader reassessment of the inflation outlook, as persistent energy-related pressures raise the risk of more durable price dynamics. That said, the picture is more nuanced in the US and the UK, where the consensus view still leans toward modest easing over the coming year. However, market pricing and broader sentiment appear to be shifting more quickly, with an increasing number of participants questioning whether rate cuts will materialise at all. Indeed, in both the US and the UK, there is a growing sense that further tightening could yet be required if energy-driven inflation proves more persistent, underscoring the increasingly uncertain and finely balanced policy environment facing central banks.

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**US Credit Conditions: Neither Tight Nor Loose**
If the policy outlook is becoming more finely balanced, credit conditions appear to be reflecting a similar sense of equilibrium. The latest US Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) suggests that, in aggregate, bank lending standards are no longer tightening meaningfully but nor are they easing materially either. This is consistent with the chart, where the share of banks tightening standards has moved closer to neutral territory following earlier periods of more pronounced tightening. As a result, the broader credit backdrop does not currently point to strong deleveraging pressures, nor does it suggest a renewed wave of credit expansion. Instead, the private sector appears to be in a holding pattern, with balance sheets broadly stable and credit conditions neither acting as a significant headwind nor a meaningful tailwind to growth.

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**Labouring the point**
If supply-side pressures and policy uncertainty are shaping the near-term outlook, labour market dynamics—and in particular wage growth—remain central to how this ultimately feeds through into inflation. The latest Indeed wage tracker suggests that while wage pressures have eased from their peaks across most major economies, they remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic norms. This is especially evident in the UK, where posted wage growth continues to run at comparatively high levels, underscoring persistent domestic cost pressures. More broadly, the stickiness of wage growth helps explain why central banks remain cautious in declaring victory over inflation. Even as energy-driven price pressures fluctuate, the risk is that tight labour markets and firm wage dynamics sustain underlying inflation at levels above target. In that sense, labour market conditions remain a critical transmission channel—determining whether the current supply shock proves temporary or evolves into a more persistent inflationary regime.

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Recent developments point to the possibility of a peace settlement in the Middle East, which has offered  some tentative relief to energy markets. Financial markets have responded with cautious optimism, but the outlook remains highly uncertain, with much depending on whether any agreement proves durable and supply disruptions are fully unwound. Against this backdrop, our charts this week highlight a global economy that is holding up better than expected but facing renewed cost pressures. Manufacturing activity remains resilient, supported by AI investment, reduced tariff disruption and defence spending, even as output prices firm (chart 1). Supply-side frictions are also still evident: shipping costs have risen, broader supply chain pressures are rebuilding (chart 2), and crude oil production has been curtailed by export and storage constraints among key regional producers (chart 3). These dynamics have reinforced inflation risks and shifted policy expectations in a more hawkish direction (chart 4). Meanwhile, US credit conditions appear broadly neutral, suggesting neither strong deleveraging nor releveraging pressures (chart 5). Finally, wage growth remains central to the outlook, particularly in the UK, where pressures are still comparatively elevated (chart 6). Taken together, the message is one of resilience under strain: growth is holding up, but the balance between inflation and activity is becoming increasingly delicate, leaving policymakers—and markets—navigating a narrow and uncertain path ahead.

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Charts of the Week: Still Standing

Winnie Tapasanun

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Construction spending data for March and February were released today to catch up from delays due to the federal government shutdown in October 2025. The value of construction put in place rose a stronger-than-expected 0.6% m/m in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,185.5 billion, the first monthly rise since December, following declines of 0.2% in February and 1.9% in January (-0.3% initially), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 0.3% m/m March increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 1.6% in March, the fourth consecutive y/y gain, after holding at 0.4% in February and January (-1.1% in March 2025), though remaining well below a high of 12.9% in December 2023 and a peak of 18.4% in April 2022.

Private construction rose 0.8% (1.0% y/y) to $1,659.0 billion in March, the first m/m increase in three months, after decreases of 0.2% in February and 2.6% in January (-0.6% initially). Residential private construction climbed 1.7% (3.6% y/y) to $929.7 billion in March following a 0.1% downtick in February and a 4.6% drop in January (-0.8% initially). Single-family building recovered 2.7% (-4.2% y/y), the third m/m rise in four months, after a 1.4% February decline; it was 44.9% of the residential private construction. Multi-family building grew 0.3% (0.5% y/y) following a 0.2% February increase and two successive m/m falls; it was 12.4% of the residential private construction. Home improvement building rose 0.9% (14.3% y/y), up for the fifth time in six months, on top of a 1.2% February gain; it was 42.7% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction fell 0.2% (-2.1% y/y) to $729.4 billion in March, the fifth m/m decline in six months, after a 0.4% decrease in February and no change in January (-0.4% initially). The March decline reflected m/m drops in several nonresidential private construction categories, driven by manufacturing (-1.2%; -17.0% y/y), followed by commercial (-0.6%; +1.5% y/y), lodging (-0.5%; +4.5% y/y), and communication (-0.4%; +1.9% y/y). To the upside, the following nonresidential private constructions rose m/m in March, led by religious (+3.3%; +14.6% y/y), followed by amusement & recreation (+1.3%; +14.2% y/y), office (+1.1%; +9.1% y/y), transportation (+0.4%; +2.3% y/y), utilities (+0.2%; +4.6% y/y), and educational (+0.1%; +7.3% y/y). Meanwhile, health care private construction was essentially unchanged (+1.2% y/y) after a 0.3% February decline.

The value of public construction fell 0.2% (+3.6% y/y) to $526.4 billion in March following a 0.3% decrease in February and a 0.5% gain in January (+0.6% initially), reflecting drops of 2.3% (+0.9% y/y) in residential public construction and 0.2% (+3.7% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. Many nonresidential public construction categories fell m/m in March, led by conservation & development (-3.4%; +7.2% y/y), followed by commercial (-0.7%; -13.2% y/y), transportation (-0.7%; +2.5% y/y), educational (-0.6%; +0.6% y/y), and office (-0.4%; -4.3% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which accounted for 28.1% of public construction spending, slipped 0.1% (+3.8% y/y), the first m/m decline since October, following a 0.2% February increase. In contrast, the following public constructions rose m/m in March, led by amusement & recreation (+0.8%; +6.3% y/y), followed by utilities (+0.7%; +10.6% y/y), health care (+0.5%; +5.7% y/y), sewage & waste disposal (+0.3%; +9.7% y/y), and public safety (+0.2%; +1.7% y/y). Meanwhile, water supply public construction was virtually unchanged (+5.7% y/y) following a 0.4% February increase and three consecutive m/m decreases.

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Headline +0.6% m/m, first monthly gain in three mths.; +1.6% y/y, fourth straight y/y rise.
- Residential private construction +1.7% m/m, driven by a 2.7% rebound in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.2% m/m, fifth decline in six mths.
- Public construction -0.2% m/m, led by a 2.3% drop in residential public building.

U.S. Construction Spending Rebounds in March, Exceeding Forecasts

Sandy Batten

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Nonfarm business productivity (output per hour) slowed more than expected in Q1 to 0.8% q/q saar from a downwardly revised 1.6% in last year’s fourth quarter (previously 1.8%). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.6% quarterly increase in productivity. Compared to a year ago, productivity rose 2.9% y/y in Q1, up from 2.5% in Q4. Since productivity growth began to accelerate at the beginning of 2023, it has grown at a well above trend 2.6% annual rate, likely a reflection of AI and other technology advances. Strong productivity is a key factor for boosting real incomes and restraining inflation pressures.

Nonfarm business output (not quite the same as real GDP) increased 1.5% q/q saar in Q1 versus a downwardly revised 1.3% in Q4 (previously 1.5%). By contrast, real GDP grew 2.0% q/q in Q1. Hours worked rebounded in Q1, rising 0.7% after falling an unrevised 0.2% in Q4. Compensation growth slowed to 3.1% in Q1 from an unrevised 6.3% in Q4. Compared to a year ago, compensation growth slowed to 4.2% y/y from 5.0%. On a quarterly basis, compensation growth slowed much more than did productivity growth. Consequently, growth of unit labor costs slowed markedly to 2.3% q/q in Q1 from 4.6% in Q4. The y/y rate of advance for unit labor costs also slowed, to 1.2% y/y, its slowest annual pace since Q3 2023, from 2.4% in Q4.

Manufacturing productivity rebounded in Q1, jumping 3.6% q/q saar following a downwardly revised 3.2% quarterly decline in Q4 (previously -2.5%). Factory output increased 3.3% q/q in Q1 following a downwardly revised 3.4% quarterly decline in Q4 (previously -2.8%). Hours worked fell 0.4% q/q in Q1, the seventh consecutive quarterly decline. Factory compensation remained elevated but slowed to 6.1% in Q1 from an unrevised 6.3% in Q4. With the rebound in productivity growth and the slowdown in compensation growth, unit labor cost growth slowed markedly to 2.4% q/q in Q1 from an upwardly revised 9.8% in Q4 (previously 9.1%). However, the y/y pace of unit labor cost growth increased further to 3.7% y/y in Q1 from 3.1% in Q4 and 1.4% in Q3.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Output per hour growth slowed to 0.8% q/q saar in Q1 from 1.6%.
- However, longer-term productivity growth remained solidly well above trend.
- Compensation growth slowed to 3.1% q/q resulting in a slowdown in unit labor cost growth to 2.3% from 4.6% in Q4.

U.S. Productivity Growth Slowed in Q1 2026

Robert Brusca

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Retail sales in the European monetary area fell in March by 0.1%, continuing a streak of declines in retail sales volumes since the beginning of 2026. Motor vehicle sales, however, as a separate category, showed recovery in registrations and sales from January to February to March.

Among six early reporting monetary union and other European countries, Germany and Norway showed sales declines in March, while Denmark, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Sweden recorded month to month increases. However, these March data belie the weakness in February, when sales declined month-to-month in all six of these areas. Prior to that, January sales had increased month-to-month in all these countries except Germany; Germany posted a 1.1% decline in retail sales in January.

**Sequential trends**
Sequential trends for these countries show that retail sales in Germany have been slipping more rapidly, falling 2% over 12 months, at a 3.9% annual rate of decline over six months, and at an accelerated 13.1% annual rate of decline over three months. Norway also has seen increasing weakness in retail sales, rising by 0.9% over 12 months, gaining at only a 0.4% annual rate over six months, and then falling at a 1.2% annual rate over three months. However, Denmark, the Netherlands, the U.K., and Sweden each show retail sales accelerating from their 12-month growth rate to their six-month growth rate and to their three-month growth rate. Only the Netherlands is an EMU member country. These data pool together monetary union and non-monetary union countries.

Looking at the headline for the monetary union, we see sales are clearly slipping and decelerating, with total sales volume up 1.1% over 12 months, up at a 0.2% annual rate over six months, and then falling at a 1.9% annual rate over three months. Sales in the monetary union are weak and getting weaker.

In the quarter-to-date (the now-completed first quarter), monetary union sales fell by 0.5% at an annual rate. Among the other countries in the table, only Germany—the largest economy in the monetary union—shows a quarterly decline at a 4.3% annual rate. All the other reporters in the table show increases, ranging from 0.1% at an annual rate in Norway to a 6.3% annual rate in the United Kingdom.

Looking at the sales gains back to January 2020, before COVID, in the euro area total retail sales volume is up by 6.3% over that broad period. U.K. sales volumes are actually lower by 0.6% over that same span. Germany, the largest euro area economy, shows a 2% increase since January 2020, implying a very slow gain for retail sales over that period. The strongest gains since January 2020 are logged by Denmark, with a 12% gain, followed by the Netherlands with a 6.4% gain and Sweden with a 5.6% gain. Since we're looking at a broad six-year period, on that time horizon these are all relatively weak numbers, with the exception of Denmark.

Activity in the monetary union has been weak, with the service sector having been quite weak during the period since COVID ended—especially on the back of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Recently, manufacturing and goods sector data have shown a little bit of life, even as service sector data continue to be very touch and go. We see that again in this retail sales report. Now oil prices are jumping, and there is a new ‘hot’ situation in the Middle East; the Strait of Hormuz is showing either impeded or shuttered traffic conditions. The outlook remains very uncertain. Consumer confidence measures continue to show consumers as somewhat off balance and concerned about circumstances and the outlook. This means we'll continue to watch all these trends closely. In the meantime, these retail sales trends indicate caution on the part of consumers as to their willingness to spend—even though they appear to have opened their pocketbooks to spend on vehicles in recent months and even sequentially. In context, the rebound in auto sales still leaves total vehicle registrations 5% lower than they were in January 2020—six years ago. There is nothing there to indicate that the consumer is out of the woods and back to normal.

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Europe

EMU Retail Sales Recede in April

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CPI, Avg Fuel Price, Gov Fin (Apr), Foreign Trade (Mar)

Retail Sales, Industrial Turnover, Construction Production (Mar), Consumer Confidence Survey (Q2)

IP, Production Value Index, Industrial Orders/Turnover, Household Consumption Indicators, Service Production (Mar)

IP, Industrial New Orders, Industrial Turnover (Mar)

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International Trade, Retail & Wholesale Trade (Mar)