Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Andrew Cates

**AI bubble concerns**
Valuation concerns around AI-related stocks have intensified in recent weeks, and this chart provides some clear context for why. The Technology sector is trading at a price-to-sales ratio of nearly 10 — far higher than any other sector in the S&P 500 — and well above its own historical averages. By contrast, sectors such as Energy, Health, and Consumer Staples are clustered around a far more modest ratio of 1–2. This extreme dispersion highlights how much investor optimism — or speculation — has concentrated in technology and AI-linked companies. For many in financial markets, this pattern echoes previous episodes of overvaluation, raising fears that the current AI enthusiasm may be starting to resemble bubble dynamics rather than simply reflecting future earnings potential.


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**Non-US equity markets and macro data surprises** 
By contrast, outside the US the picture looks more old-fashioned: equity swings have hugged the macro tape. The Dow Jones Global ex-US index’s 90-day moves track closely with the G10 “growth surprise minus inflation surprise” gauge. When growth data beat expectations, ex-US markets tend to rise; when inflation surprises on the upside, they falter. That pattern implies fundamentals—not narrative—have been doing the heavy lifting abroad, with macro impulses (real activity up, inflation pressure down) explaining far more of the equity gyrations than theme-driven factors.


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**Oil prices and interest rates**
One often overlooked reason for why the global economy has out-performed expectations in recent months concerns oil prices. Brent crude has drifted lower for much of the past year, and the chart below shows it moving broadly in step with the decline in US 2-year yield. Cheaper crude acts like a tax cut for consumers and energy-intensive firms, easing headline inflation and cushioning real incomes just as tariff noise has picked up. The softer energy bill has also reduced second-round cost pressures, helping inflation cool without a collapse in demand. In short, calmer oil prices have quietly underwritten the “soft-landing” mix: steadier growth with disinflation, and a bit more room for central banks to ease.


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**China’s credit growth** 
Another overlooked prop for global growth has been China’s quiet turn in credit. The next chart shows a modest but clear positive credit impulse (the change in the flow of China’s social financing), which—alongside this week’s Q3 GDP upside surprise—has arguably given a lift to sentiment on global growth. As Beijing eased financing constraints and nudged bank lending and bond issuance higher, Citigroup’s EM-weighted economic surprise index has also moved back into positive territory. That said, the impact has been uneven. The credit surge has done little so far to revive China’s ailing property market, which remains a key drag on domestic demand and a key source of uncertainty for the global economic outlook.


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**US wage inflation**
With official government data delayed by the shutdown, investors have been paying closer attention to private-sector sources to gauge inflation and labor market trends. These wage inflation figures in the chart below from the Indeed Hiring Lab are a case in point. Posted wage growth has continued to ease steadily, slipping from its post-pandemic highs above 8% to just over 2% y/y. This softening in wage pressures reinforces the message from the previous oil-price chart: inflation concerns are ebbing.


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**UK inflation** 
Turning to the UK, this week’s CPI inflation data for September came in softer than expected, helped by weaker food and energy inflation. That’s welcome—but the mix was less comforting beneath the surface. As the chart below shows, services CPI inflation remains stubbornly elevated. At the same time, PPI output price inflation has turned higher again, hinting at a rebuild in upstream cost momentum. Together, sticky services inflation and a re-firming producer-price pulse temper the headline good news and argue for caution about how quickly UK inflation can glide back to the BoE’s 2% target.


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Financial markets have been caught between conflicting crosscurrents in recent days. On the one hand, risk sentiment has been weighed down by mounting concerns over US lenders and broader credit conditions, renewed tariff worries, the ongoing government shutdown, and growing unease about a potential AI-driven valuation bubble (chart 1). On the other, expectations have strengthened that major central banks will continue to ease policy in the face of softer growth and moderating inflation, fueling hopes of a soft landing (chart 2). Supporting that view, oil prices have declined off easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (chart 3), and China’s credit impulse—together with stronger-than-expected GDP—has provided a quiet but important lift to global growth momentum (chart 4), even if property market weakness persists. US wage growth also continues to cool according to some private sector surveys (chart 5), helping to ease inflation concerns, while in the UK, softer headline inflation has been welcomed, though sticky services CPI and rising producer prices have tempered the good news (chart 6). Taken together, the macro narrative is one of lingering risks offset by moderating inflation pressures and easing hopes—an uneasy equilibrium that has left financial markets more volatile but still resilient.

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Charts of the Week: Risks and Relief

Tom Moeller

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance, calculated by Haver Analytics by summing state claims, declined 14,839 to 220,271 in the week ended October 11. The decline reversed earlier week’s increase of 10,841 and left claims at the lowest level since late-July. Nevertheless, initial claims have trended higher this year after weakening late in 2024, suggesting some softening in the job market since the beginning of the year.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance, also calculated by Haver Analytics by summing state claims, fell to 1.928 million in the week ended October 4 after rising to 1.929 million in the prior week. Their trend tells the same story as initial claims; that is, labor market conditions are uneven. Still, continuing claims have risen 3.1% y/y, which is less than half the peak rate of 7.7% this past April. 

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ended October 4, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.415%), Washington (1.96%) and Connecticut (1.71%). The lowest were in South Dakota (0.23%), Florida (0.36%), and North Carolina (0.41%).  Rates in other notable states include New York (1.45%), Illinois (1.48%), Pennsylvania (1.37%), and Texas (1.05%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.



- Initial claims decline, reversing earlier increase.
- Continuing claims move lower.
- State unemployment rates vary.


U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Ease in Latest Week

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Existing home sales rose 1.5% (4.1% y/y) to 4.06 million (SAAR) in September after easing 0.2% in August to an unrevised 4.00 million and rising 2.0% to 4.01 million in July, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). It was the highest level of sales since February and matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Last month’s sales rise accompanied a decline in the effective 30-year mortgage interest rate to an average 6.35% from 6.59% in August. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales rose 1.7% (4.5% y/y) during September to 3.69 million units after a 0.3% decline to 3.63 million in August and a 2.0% July rise to 3.64 million. Sales of condos & co-ops held steady m/m at 370,000, and were unchanged y/y, for the second consecutive month.

Sales were mixed across the country last month. Sales in the West rose 5.5% (unchanged y/y) to 770,000 after a 1.4% August gain. In the Northeast, sales increased 2.1% (4.3% y/y) to 490,000 following a 4.0% August decline. Sales in the South improved 1.6% (6.9% y/y) to 1.86 million, after falling 1.1% in August. Falling by 2.1% (+2.2% y/y) to 940,000 were sales in the Midwest after rising 2.1% in August.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) in September declined 1.7% (+2.1% y/y) to $415,200. The median price of an existing single-family home fell 1.6% (+2.3% y/y) to $420,700 in September, and the median price of condos & co-ops declined 1.6% (-0.6% y/y) to $360,300 last month. Prices for homes in the West eased 0.2% (+0.4% y/y) to $619,100 while prices in the Northeast fell 6.3% (+4.1% y/y) to $500,300. In the South, prices edged 0.1% higher (+1.2% y/y) to $364,500 while in the Midwest, home prices fell 2.6% (+4.7% y/y) to $320,800.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 1.3% (14.0% y/y) to 1.55 million units in September. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) held steady at 4.6 months, still nearly the highest level in nine years, up from a low of 1.6 months in January 2022.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Home sales reach their highest level in seven months.
- Sales are slightly higher m/m in most of country.
- Median sales price falls in most of country.


U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise in September; Prices Decline

Robert Brusca

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Industrial orders in the United Kingdom fell to a reading of -38 in October from -27 in September this compares also to a level of -33 and August. The 12-months to 6-months to 3-month average progression shows steady deterioration for orders with the 12-month average at a -31 reading, compared to the October reading of -38. Dated back to 1991 the current orders reading ranks in the lower 8% of its historic queue of data, among the observations on that timeline marking this as an exceptionally weak reading on the month and, underpinning the notion, that growth in the UK is weakening and perhaps providing for the Bank of England a way to avoid raising rates in the face of what continues to be excessive inflation.

Export orders also slipped in the month to -46 compared to a reading of -32 in September and -33 in August. Export orders also have deteriorated steadily as the 12-month, the six-month, and the three-month averages are becoming sequentially weaker. Comparisons show the 612-month average at -33 to this month's -46 reading. The percentile standing for export orders is similarly weak to overall orders at a 7-percentile standing.

Looking ahead, the output volume for the next three months finds the index at -19, down from -14 in September and -13 in August. The sequential reading on this metric weakens as well from readings of -9 over 12-months to -12 over 6-months to -15 over 3 months. All that compares to the current October reading of -19. The deterioration there is clearly in place; the queue percentile standing of the October level is at 6%, marking it, once again, as exceptionally weak.

Looking at the prices over the next three months brings an unfortunate increase to 16 from 4 in September and 9 in August. However, the expected inflation results are not on the same deteriorating path as orders trend and expected output. Despite the monthly jump in October, the 12-month average of ‘expected inflation’ is 18, that's reduced to 16 over 6-months and further reduced to 10 over 3 months. The jump in October is a jump that is away from trend, and I suppose we will have to wait to see where it settles in. The trending results for inflation are somewhat more encouraging. The jump in October is quite discouraging although it does come against the background of weakening economic data which simply puts the central bank in a more difficult position to make a policy decision. Price expectations for 3-months ahead have a ranking in their 73rd percentile meaning that they have been stronger a little more than 25% of the time on data back to 1991.

The PMI industrial indicator is up to date through September; here we have a comparison of the manufacturing PMI to the CBI survey. The manufacturing PMI eased to 46.2 from 47 in September. The manufacturing PMI on averages over 12-months, 6-months and 3-months is without a clear trend and has been fluctuating. The manufacturing PMI on data back to 2021 has a 12-percentile standing. The clear message is that conditions in manufacturing in the UK are very weak as the CBI and PMI percentile standings agree. Combined with the CBI inflation outlook, it leaves the BOE in a difficult place.



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United Kingdom

UK CBI Industrial Orders Drop as Prospects Fade

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Mortgage applications dipped 0.3% (+47.2% y/y) in the week ended October 17 following a 1.8% decline during the previous week. It was the smallest of four consecutive weekly declines, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Purchase applications fell 5.2% (+19.8% y/y) following a 2.7% decline in the previous week. Applications for refinancing rose 4.0% (80.6% y/y) in the October 17 week after declining 1.0% in the previous week.

Mortgage interest rates edged lower last week. The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan eased to 6.54% in the week ending October 17 after holding steady at 6.60% while the 15-year rate slipped to 5.91% after falling to 5.94%. The rate on a 30-year Jumbo mortgage declined to 6.50% from 6.62% while the rate on a 5-year ARM fell to 5.78% from 5.85%.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 55.9% after edging up to 53.6% in the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rebounded to 10.8% in the week of October 17, the highest share in five weeks.

The average size of a mortgage loan rose 3.6% (8.2% y/y) to $414,700 in the week ended October 17 after rising 0.5% in the prior week. It remained below the high of $452,000 in the week of September 12. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.0% (-1.7% y/y) to $438,900 after two consecutive weekly declines. The average size of a refinanced loan increased 6.8% (28.3% y/y) to $395,500 in the week ended October 17 after rising 1.9% one week earlier.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

**The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890-2006** from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available [here](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/the-economy/regional-economics/the-price-of-housing-in-the-united-states-1890-2006) 


- Mortgage applications decline for fourth straight week.
- Purchase applications fall sharply as refinancing increases.
- Mortgage interest rates fall.


U.S. Mortgage Applications & Interest Rates Edge Lower in Latest Week

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