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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Winnie Tapasanun

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The U.S. ISM Services PMI declined to a lower-than-expected 54.5 in October from 54.9 in September and 55.4 in August, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed, indicating expansion in the services sector for the 28th straight month but at the slowest pace since July. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 54.7 for October. The latest reading was above 52.0 in October 2025 and a low of 49.4 in June 2024, while remaining below its recent high of 56.1 in February and a record-high 67.5 in November 2021. The 12-month average was 54.3, pointing to continued growth in the U.S. services sector.

Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing reading. This index slipped to 54.6 in October from 54.9 in September and 55.3 in August, signaling expansion for the 17th consecutive month but at the weakest pace since July. The latest result was above 51.6 in October 2025 and a low of 49.3 in June 2024, albeit remaining below a high of 55.7 in February and a record-high 66.7 in November 2021. These series date back to July 1997.

In the latest services survey, the business activity index fell to 53.8 in October from 56.5 in September and 61.7 in August, indicating continued expansion in business activity for 28 months in a row but at the slowest rate since September 2025. The index was above a low of 50.0 in June 2024 but below a peak of 70.9 in November 2021. In October, 20.8% of respondents (NSA) reported higher activity while 11.4% reported an activity decline. The new orders index decreased to 55.9 in October from 59.8 in September and 60.9 in August, reflecting expansion in new orders for the 17th successive month but at the slowest pace since June. The index was above a low of 47.2 in May 2025 but below a high of 61.0 in February 2023 and a record-high 69.2 in October 2021. In October, 26.1% of respondents (NSA) reported higher new orders while 9.0% reported declines. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index (NSA) rose to 56.7 in October from 53.2 in September, indicating slower performance in supplier deliveries for the 23rd straight month, following one month in faster territory in November 2024.

On the labor front, the employment index advanced to 51.4 in October from 50.1 in September, showing employment activity in the services sector expanded for the second straight month after contracting in August and July. The latest reading was above a low of 43.5 in December 2023 but below a high of 54.1 in June 2023 and a peak of 58.9 in April 2021. In October, an increased 16.6% of respondents (NSA) indicated higher employment while a lessened 13.5% reported declines.

On the inflation front, the prices index, above 70 for the seventh time in eight months, edged down to a still-elevated 73.0 in October from 74.0 in September, indicating prices paid by services organizations for materials and services had risen (i.e., above 50) since June 2017. The index was well above a low of 53.9 in March 2024 but below a peak of 83.7 in March 2022. In October, 48.6% of respondents (NSA) reported higher prices while only 4.0% reported price declines.

Additionally, the new export orders index rebounded to 55.2 in October from 46.9 in September, showing new export orders expanded for the fourth time in five months. The imports index climbed to 54.2 in October from 52.9 in September, marking the eighth expansion in nine months. The inventories index slid to 55.4 in October from 57.8 in September, indicating inventories expanded for the ninth consecutive month but at the weakest pace since July, while the inventory sentiment index edged up to 52.1 from 51.7, showing continued expansion since May 2023. The backlog of orders index increased to 58.0 in October from 56.6 in September, marking the fastest pace of expansion since July 2022, following an 11-month period of contraction from March 2025 through January 2026. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector; below 50 suggests contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- ISM Services PMI down slightly to 54.5 in Oct., still above the 12-month avg. of 54.3.
- Business Activity (53.8) lowest since Sept. ’25; expanding for the 28th consecutive mth.
- New Orders (55.9) lowest since June; growing for 17 mths. running. 
- Employment (51.4) highest since February; second successive mth. above 50.
- Prices Index (73.0) down modestly but above 70 for the seventh time in eight mths., indicating prices rising since June ’17.

U.S. ISM Services PMI at a Three-Month Low, Still Indicating Expansion for the 28th Straight Month

Sandy Batten

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) narrowed slightly to $105.0 billion in September from an upwardly revised $105.7 billion in August (previously -$105.6 billion), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a deficit of $107.9 billion. The goods deficit narrowed to $135.9 billion in September from $136.6 billion in August while the services surplus was essentially unchanged at +$30.9 billion.

The real (inflation-adjusted) trade deficit in goods widened to $119.5 billion (2017$) in September from $116.0 billion in August. For all of Q3, the real deficit totaled $341.6 billion versus $277.8 billion in August. This marked widening in the real deficit was already noted in the release of the first estimate of real GDP for Q3 where it was reported that the widening of the trade deficit subtracted 3.3%-points from overall real GDP growth in Q3.

Exports of goods and services increased 1.9% m/m (+10.0% y/y) in September on top of a 1.6% monthly gain in August. These two consecutive months of increased exports followed three consecutive monthly declines. Goods exports (Census basis) rose 2.5% m/m (12.6% y/y) in September, the largest monthly gain since April. Increases were widely spread across major end-use categories. Exports of food and feeds jumped 13.3% m/m, the largest monthly increase since October 2021. Exports of capital goods excluding autos increased 5.5% m/m, the third consecutive monthly rise. Exports of consumer goods ex autos increased 3.7% m/m, the third increase in the past four months. By contrast, auto exports slumped 5.6% m/m, the third consecutive monthly decline and the fifth decline in the past six months. Services exports increased 0.7% m/m (+4.4% y/y) in September following a 0.3% monthly rise in August. Transport exports increased 0.8% m/m; travel was up 1.8% m/m; charges for the use of intellectual property rose 0.6% m/m, the fourth consecutive monthly gain.

Imports of goods and services increased 1.2% m/m (21.3% y/y) in September, a slowdown from a 4.4% monthly gain in August. Goods imports (Census basis) increased 2.4% m/m (28.2% y/y) in September but were generally weak apart from imports of capital goods with goods imports declining in four of the six major end-use categories. The importance of AI-related investment continued to dominate with imports of capital goods ex autos up 7.9% m/m (77.8% y/y). In the past three months, capital goods imports have risen 25.5%. Excluding capital goods imports, the remainder of imports fell 1.9% m/m, the third monthly decline in the past four months. Imports of consumer goods ex autos rose 4.1% m/m in September, more than offsetting a 0.8% monthly decline in August. Service imports increased 1.0% m/m (3.0% y/y) in September following a 0.5% m/m increase in August. The September increase was led by a 1.8% m/m gain in transport imports and a 3.4% m/m gain in travel imports.

By country, the goods trade deficit with China widened to $17.9 billion in September from $16.4 billion in August. This was the widest deficit with China since April 2025. The trade deficit with the European Union widened to $14.2 billion in September from $11.0 billion in August. The trade deficit with Japan increased to $4.8 billion in September from $3.7 billion in August.

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The deficit in goods and services narrowed to $105.0 billion in September from $105.7 billion in August.
- This capped off a quarter in which the trade deficit widened markedly, subtracting 3.3%-points from overall GDP.
- The goods deficit narrowed to $135.9 billion in September, while the services surplus was essentially unchanged at $30.9 billion.
- Exports rose 1.9% m/m, led by strong increases in exports of food and feeds and of capital goods.
- Imports increased by 1.2% m/m, once again dominated by increased AI-related capital goods imports.

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in September

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications fell 1.2% w/w (-42.0% y/y) in the week ending October 30, after rising 3.4% w/w (-42.4% y/y) in the week ending October 23, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 2.0% w/w (-19.5% y/y) in the latest week, after rising 3.8% w/w (-18.4% y/y) in the October 23 week. Applications for loan refinancing edged up 0.1% w/w (-59.9% y/y) in the October 30 week following a rise of 2.7% w/w (-61.1% y/y) in the October 23 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 7bps to 7.52% in the week ending October 30 from 7.59% in the week ending October 23, its third consecutive weekly decline from 7.75% in the October 9 week. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 9bps to 7.00% in the October 30 week from 6.91% in the October 23 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate fell 12bps to 7.34% in the latest week from 7.46% in the October 23 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped by 20bps to 6.66% in the October 30 week from 6.86% in the October 23 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 39.8% of total applications in the week of October 30 from 38.9% in the week ending October 23. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity edged up to 11.4% in the latest week from 11.3% in the October 23 week.

The average size of a mortgage fell 0.3% w/w (-9.0% y/y) to $377,400 in the week ending October 30, after rising 1.7% w/w (-8.2% y/y) to $378,600 in the week ending October 23. The average size of a purchase loan edged up 0.1% w/w to $452,600 in the October 30 week after rising 1.7% w/w to $452,100 in the October 23 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 0.2% w/w to $263,500 in the week ending October 30 after increasing 1.7% w/w to $262,900 in the October 23 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications for loans to purchase declined and applications for loan refinancing edged up in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans fell 7bps to 7.52%.
- Average loan size edged down in the October 30 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fell in the October 30 Week

Robert Brusca

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The S&P Global PMI data for October show a very broad worsening, with only 6 of 25 reporting countries logging month-to-month improvement. However, the average PMI reading for the total PMIs on an unweighted basis in October yields a value of 52.1 compared to 52.8 in September, a modest drop for such broad weakening. The group median, however, was unchanged at 52.3 in October compared to 52.3 in September. The number of jurisdictions contracting in October rose to 7 from 5 in September, back to where it was in August and back to its six-month average for the number of reporters contracting.

There is no single number that can adequately pin down exactly how this diverse group of countries is performing; no single metric can characterize the global economy adequately. However, we can see from the various metrics that there's a good deal of irregularity, and the deterioration itself may not have been large. There's a fairly broad-based deterioration that occurred from September to October. Even so, the average reading in October is slightly below the three-month average of 52.4, which is stronger than its six-month and 12-month readings for the pooled group average. The group median, at 52.3, is nearly the same as the 52.4 reading for the last three months, which is a reading above its six-month and 12-month values. In short, there appears to be some mixing around and oscillation of the performance metrics by some of the reporting countries, but not so clear erosion.

The average reading for the group consisting of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Monetary Union shows 52.1 for the 12-month average, 52.4 for the six-month average, and then a rise to 53.9 for the three-month average. The October reading for this group at 53.6 is below the three-month average. But the October reading is still above the six-month and 12-month averages.

The shaded areas in the table identify periods when the readings are below 50, indicating a decline in activity in PMI terms. There are five reporting areas that have this characteristic over three months, six months, and 12 months. They are France, Brazil, Zambia, Egypt, and Qatar.

Despite various degrees of improving or deteriorating, there are 17 reporters that record total PMI values above 50 over three months, six months, and 12 months. And there are 16 that show expansion over each of the last three months. Growth rules.

At least growth has been the rule. It's not clear that there's been a lot of strength. To assess strength, we look at the queue percentile standings that rank the current October readings against all previous values back to January 2021. Queue percentile standings have an average value of 52.1% and a median of 48%. The average is about two percentile points above the neutral diffusion reading of 50, while the median across these reporters is about two percentile points below the neutral reading, indicating no change in output. There are 11 reporters with queue standings below their 50th percentile, putting them below their medians for the period. Among the weakest reporters are Qatar at a 4.3% standing and Brazil at a 7.2% standing; Australia and Zambia have standings at their respective 17th percentiles. That leaves 14 countries above their 50% mark and, therefore, above their historic medians. Only two countries log standings in their 90th percentiles, Kenya and Nigeria. Other than these two, the highest standings are in the 70th percentile, such as the U.S. (at a 79.7 percentile), Spain, Germany, Singapore, and Japan. The more advanced countries have standings at higher percentile markers; however, France and Italy are exceptions with readings that are in their respective 30th percentiles.

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The global economy is in a period of significant transition with countries fighting off inflation stemming from war in the Middle East owing to substantially higher oil prices, but also from the interruption of other supply lines, and the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. All of this, of course, is occurring in the aftermath of COVID; the main COVID disruption ended slightly less than five years ago. It has been a difficult period. And it is leading now to some significant political displacements, with Europe seeing significant domestic discord particularly over fiscal positions. And the U.S. just recently witnessed a significant loss of support for the Republican Party in power, paving the way for some new and unknown policy tilts in the period ahead as Democrats will rule in the Senate and the House for the next two years.

Composite Global PMIs Lose Breadth but Not Much Strength

Jonathan Basile

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The September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) portrayed optimism for the U.S. labor demand picture as the third quarter came to an end. On the surface, total nonfarm job openings rose 333,000 in September, following August’s 145,000 decline. This left the current level of 7.523 million up 4.9% compared to a year ago. Looking closer in, however, job openings have yet to reattain the April 2026 high (7.585 million), running 2.0% annualized below this point. Large one-month industry gains were notable in Professional & Business Services (106,000) and State and Local Excluding Education (104,000).

Total nonfarm hires did not have the same feel as job openings. Despite rising back-to-back in August (125,000) and September (131,000), the current 5.402 million rate stood 4.7% annualized below the March 2026 high (5.535 million). Granted, the year-over-year trend was up 3.0%, but this didn’t shake hires out of the 4.9-5.6 million range that has been in place since mid-2024. Moreover, one industry – accommodation & food services (up 158,000) – was responsible for more than the entire gain in September nonfarm hires. This questions the sustainability of the rise.

Total nonfarm quits advanced 321,000 to 3.365 million in September, reaching the highest level since March 2025’s 3.456 million. The 12.5% year-over-year rise bucked the prior trend that had seen just three trailing 12-month increases in the previous 48 months. From a technical standpoint, September’s gain was the fifth largest on record, suggesting a high hurdle to improve from the end of the third quarter. Like with hires, accommodation & food services (up 197,000) had a sizable influence, questioning the strength of the aggregate signal. To be sure, September’s quits ran counter to the 173,000-drop in job leavers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Household Survey’s sister quits gauge, that fell to a 16-month low of 10.5% of the total unemployed in September.

Nonfarm layoffs fell in September by 127,000 to 1.641 million. This left the YoY comparison at -9.6% for September. While this reinforced the wider “low fire” narrative, the current level of layoffs remained in the wider 1.6-1.9 million range that has been in place since July 2024. Since bottoming in 2022, nonfarm layoffs have moved in a similar manner to the higher frequency series, weekly continuing claims. JOLTS layoffs are reported with a lag relative to continuing claims. The latter’s sideways movement in September (1.709 million) and October (1.709 million month-to-date average) suggests no further improvement in the near-term pink slip picture.

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The nonfarm hires-separations spread acts as a channel check for the monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment (NFP). The JOLTS report points to mixed results for NFP revisions in this Friday’s U.S. Employment report. The hires-separations spread in August was revised down to 96,000 from the previous 122,000; the -26,000 difference translates to the direction of the NFP revision. For September, the hires-separations spread came in at 83,000 versus the 29,000 initial NFP gain for that month, implying a +54,000 adjustment. Taken together, the net two-month revision would be +28,000.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Large industry gains drove September increases in job openings and hires.
- Quits jump ran counter to alternative job leavers.
- Hires-Separations point to mixed nonfarm payroll revisions.

U.S. JOLTS: Labor Demand Improved in September

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Labor Force Survey (Q3), Turnover Index for Service Activities, Index of Production for Services (Sep)

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