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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Sandy Batten

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For the second consecutive month, the employment report disappointed. Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July with significant downward revisions to both May and June, according to today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected an increase of 85,000. The 129,000 increase previously reported for May was revised down to 63,000 while the much lower-than-expected 57,000 increase previously reported for June was revised down to 20,000. The average gain over the past three months fell to 20,000 from 77,000 in June while the average increase over the past six months declined to 44,330 from 74,830 in June. Both remain stronger than in the second half of last year but in the past two months have slowed from the pace exhibited in the spring.

In contrast to the headline figure, private-sector payrolls posted a 30,000 increase in July. However, this was still much lower than the expected 79,000 increase, and there were also significant, though smaller than for the headline figure, downward revisions to both May and June (totaling 55,000). Government employment fell 53,000 in July, almost completely accounted for by a surprising 49,600 decline in local government education jobs.

The weaker-than-expected payroll report was once again reinforced by a weak report from the **household survey** for July. While the number of unemployed fell 178,000, the third consecutive monthly decline, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged down to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, the number of employed fell 87,000, the fifth monthly decline in the past six months, on top of a 507,000 plunge in June. The labor force continued its sharp fall, declining 264,000 in July following a 720,000 drop in June. The labor force participation rate decreased to 61.4%, its lowest reading since February 2021.

On a slightly brighter note, wage growth was well behaved. Private sector average hourly earnings, a key variable for the Federal Reserve, edged up a less-than-expected 0.1% m/m in July, the smallest monthly gain since last December. The 3.2% increase from a year ago was the lowest May 2021. Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.3% m/m rise. Wages in private service-producing firms were unchanged and advanced just 2.9% from a year ago, the slowest pace of advance since May 2021. Goods-producing wages rose 0.3% m/m (4.1% y/y) in July, up slightly from a 0.2% monthly increase in June.

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In the **establishment survey**, goods-producing jobs increased a solid 25,000 in July, the largest monthly advance since March, led by a 22,000 rise in construction jobs. Manufacturing jobs rose 5,000 in July, the second consecutive monthly gain. Private-sector service-producing jobs rose only 5,000 in July, the weakest performance since a 127,000 decline in February. Job performance varied significantly across sectors. Surprisingly, leisure and hospitality was the weakest sector with jobs declining 40,000 in July on top of a 43,000 decline in June. There were expectations that the World Cup would generate additional leisure and hospitality jobs, but this obviously has failed to pan out. Retail trade jobs fell 19,400 following a 3,700 decline in June. Financial activities jobs declined 14,000, the fifth consecutive monthly decline. By contrast, private education and healthcare jobs increased 25,000 in Jul, though this was well below the 60,000 monthly increase averaged over the previous four months. Professional and business services jobs rose 18,000, and information jobs gained 11,000, the first monthly increase in four months.

The breadth of private job growth narrowed in July from June with the one-month diffusion index falling to 51.8 from 53.2, though still above the key 50 level that indicates that more industries were adding jobs than losing them. Moreover, the six-month diffusion index rose to 55.0 in July, its highest reading since January 2024.

The length of the workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours in July, where it has been for the past four months. The aggregate weekly hours index was also unchanged in July as it had been in June. The goods-producing workweek edged up to 40.2 hours in July, the highest since January 2023, from 40.1 in June. The private service-producing workweek was unchanged at 33.2 hours in July.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 23,000 in July with meaningful downward revisions to both May and June.
- The market consensus looked for an 85,000 increase.
- The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, its lowest since June 2025, from 4.2%, due mostly to another significant decline in the labor force.
- Average hourly earnings edged up 0.1% m/m (3.2% y/y), meaningfully lower than expectations.

U.S. Payroll Employment Unexpectedly Declined in July

Robert Brusca

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German industrial production rose by 0.2% in June, continuing a string of increases. Production in Germany is on an accelerating path. It is unchanged over 12 months, but it has a 0.9% annual rate increase over six months and a 4.5% annual rate increase over three months, a clear acceleration in the rates of growth over the shorter periods.

That trend is accentuated by consumer goods that grow 2.3% over 12 months; output then steps up to a 3% annual rate over six months and advances to 18.9% at an annual rate over three months. Capital goods and intermediate goods interrupt the pattern to some extent. For capital goods, output falls 2.5% over 12 months, then weakens further, falling by 4.2% annually over six months, but it rebounds to grow at a 0.8% annual rate over three months. That's not an accelerating pattern, but there is a recovery over three months. Intermediate goods show a 0.1% increase in output over 12 months, rising to 1.7% annually over six months but then stepping back to a 1% growth rate over three months.

Manufacturing alone also shows accelerating growth as growth rates improve from 12 months to six months to three months. Real manufacturing orders have a convoluted growth rate, with positive growth over 12 months, a decline over six months, and then a small recovery over three months. The pace of real sales, as we saw in yesterday's durable goods orders and sales report, is on a shrinking path.

Industrial surveys generally show sequential deterioration for the sector from the ZEW and the IFO. The exception is the EU Commission industrial index that shows some slight improvement sequentially.

Industrial production results are presented for five other European countries that have issued IP data as of June. These data show acceleration sequentially in Spain, Sweden, and Norway. France and Portugal have complex patterns that end with negative three-month growth rates.

On balance, Germany shows some hopeful trends, with some rebound being led to some extent by the consumer sector. The survey data on industry are not encouraging. Although the picture for the rest of Europe shows some tendency for acceleration, there’s still a good deal of lingering weakness.

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Germany

German Industrial Output Gathers Strength

Andrew Cates

**A world economy that refuses to buckle**
For all the anxiety in the headlines, the world economy has kept its footing. The gauge in question is the Global Economic Conditions Indicator of Baumeister, Korobilis and Lee, a composite distilled each month from sixteen separate series that among them span the breadth of the global economy: industrial production and leading indicators, consumer confidence and expectations, commodity and energy prices, financial conditions and the dollar, shipping and transport, geopolitical risk, and even the weather, by way of measures of El Niño and energy-related temperatures. Expressed relative to normal trend growth, it fell close to a full percentage point below par during the disruption of 2022. It has since climbed back above zero, leaving global activity running, if anything, a shade faster than its long-run trend.

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**Higher interest rate expectations**
That resilience has had a consequence for interest rates, and not the one markets spent much of the past year anticipating. Rather than the cuts once taken for granted, Blue Chip forecasters have been quietly raising their expectations for where policy rates will sit twelve months hence — and doing so almost everywhere at once, across the United States, the euro area, Japan and Australia alike. The breadth of the revision is what gives it weight. A change confined to a single economy might be put down to a local quirk of politics or the cycle; a shift that spans most of the advanced world at the same moment is far harder to dismiss. It has the look of a collective reassessment of how far, and how fast, rates can now fall — the same conclusion the neutral-rate estimates in the next chart reach by a longer road.

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**A higher resting place**
The reassessment reaches well beyond the coming year. The neutral rate — the real rate that neither stimulates nor restrains an economy running at capacity, and thus the level rates settle at once the cycle has passed — has risen as well. Estimates for eleven advanced economies now put it higher than in 2019 in every economy; Japan's is still below zero but a full point higher than it was, and New Zealand's is above three per cent. This arguably matters more than a rise in current rates. A high policy rate today can be written off as cyclical, to be reversed at the first downturn; a higher resting rate cannot. On these estimates the very low rates of the past decade were not the normal order of things but a phase that is probably now ending, which makes the widespread assumption that rates will eventually drift back to them increasingly hard to defend.

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**Fiscal appetite meets the demand for capital**
Why has the anchor moved? The US Fed’s decomposition points, above all, to governments. The largest single force lifting neutral rates across the advanced world has been the swelling supply of government debt: as safe assets multiply, they can be absorbed only at a higher yield, with a fading premium for their safety adding to the effect. Ranged against that, an ageing population's appetite for safe saving and the slow retreat of the global savings glut have pulled the other way, though not by enough to offset it. What gives the fiscal story its bite is the company it now keeps on the demand side. Wide deficits are competing for savings with an investment cycle that has plainly turned — in artificial intelligence, in defence, in the reshoring of supply chains — and a rising demand for capital meeting a supply that no longer grows freely is the very definition of a more expensive real rate.

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**A boom financed (so far) from profits, not debt**
The character of that investment matters as much as its scale, and there is some reassurance. Set the proportion of American banks tightening their lending standards, drawn from the Federal Reserve's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, against the financial balance of the private sector as a whole, and a comforting picture emerges. Banks turned cautious through the recent cycle, tightening credit conditions appreciably, and yet the private sector has gone on running a healthy surplus, its spending funded in aggregate out of income rather than a build-up of debt. This week's survey, covering the second quarter, suggests that even the credit squeeze is now fading. Banks reported that standards on business loans were little changed over the quarter, while demand for those loans strengthened — a pick-up they attributed, tellingly, to their customers' higher spending on plant and equipment. The distinction between profits and borrowing remains a crucial one. An investment upturn paid for largely from profits is far sturdier than one built on leverage, and far less exposed to the higher cost of borrowing described in the earlier charts; and where firms are now turning to the banks, they appear to be doing so to finance new capacity rather than to plug a hole. It also lends some perspective to the recent jitters over artificial-intelligence spending: for all the noise, the economy-wide accounts show little sign, as yet, of the over-extension that turned earlier booms to bust.

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**Where the boom meets its limits**
The financial foundations look solid; the physical ones are more of a challenge. Copper is the clearest example. An economy cannot electrify, expand its power grid, build data centres or rearm without a great deal of it, and the real price of copper now sits close to its highest in decades. The reason is a straightforward imbalance: demand is rising quickly, while a new mine takes the best part of a decade to come on stream, so supply struggles to keep pace. The strains are not confined to metals. Tensions in the Middle East over the summer have kept markets wary about the security of energy supply, a reminder that the constraints on a fast-investing economy are now as much a matter of geopolitics as of finance.

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The global economy has proved stubbornly resilient this summer, even as the backdrop has grown noisier. A fresh flare-up in the Middle East, reports of official intervention to arrest a slide in the yen, and a bout of nerves over the vast sums now being committed to artificial intelligence have all unsettled sentiment, while central banks — the Federal Reserve among them — have turned markedly more hesitant about cutting rates than they appeared only a few months ago. Yet the incoming data have held up better than feared, with a broad gauge of global activity climbing back above its normal trend and shrugging off the gloom (chart 1). If anything, the pressure on interest rates has been upward rather than down. Forecasters have spent recent months marking up their expectations for policy rates a year ahead across almost every major economy (chart 2), and the shift looks more than cyclical: estimates of the neutral rate, the resting point for real rates, now stand higher than they did in 2019 in every advanced economy (chart 3), lifted above all by the swelling supply of government debt (chart 4). Behind that repricing lies an investment cycle that is quietly gathering pace and, encouragingly, one still financed largely out of profits rather than borrowing (chart 5). It is not without its constraints, however. The real price of copper, the indispensable metal of electrification, sits close to a multi-decade high — a reminder that a capital-hungry world is beginning to strain against physical limits (chart 6).

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/0Zt7Di0z9PXCtH3h3ibLd6?utm_source=generator&si=be24fd3c45b3421c" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: A Resilient World Economy, and Its Price

Michael J. Moran

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Productivity in the nonfarm business sector rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the expected increase of 0.7% but trailing average gains of more than 2.0% in both 2024 and 2025. Results in the prior two quarters also were below 2.0%. In all of the past three quarters, the easing in productivity growth reflected slow advances in output: 1.7% in Q2 and an average of 1.4% in the prior two quarters. Output growth in both 2024 and 2025 averaged 3.0%. Growth of labor input in recent quarters has remained comfortably within the range of recent observations. Productivity growth is approximately equal to output growth less growth of labor hours.

The slowdown in productivity growth in the past three quarters might raise concern about the underlying pace of growth. However, the recent easing is not especially alarming, as productivity often moves erratically; soft patches have occurred in the past only to revive in subsequent quarters. Still, the past three quarters have generated a downward drift in the eight-quarter moving average of growth, which is intended to smooth the random changes in productivity. Despite this drift, it is too early to conclude that productivity growth is fading. The softening in recent quarters should be viewed as disappointing only to those expecting a burst in efficiency gains from artificial intelligence. AI, thus far, does not seem to have generated miracles.

Unit labor costs—hourly labor compensation relative to productivity—rose 1.3% in Q2, matching the increase in the prior quarter and trailing the average results in the prior few years. Labor compensation grew moderately in Q2, at 2.7%, and the offset from 1.4% productivity growth left a restrained advance in unit labor costs.

Fed officials have argued in recent months that the labor market is not a factor pushing inflation above the target of 2.0%. The results on unit labor costs support this view. If labor costs were the only factor driving price changes, the 1.3% growth of unit labor costs would suggest an inflation rate below 2.0%.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

- Productivity gains, while still respectable, have lost a bit of vigor in recent quarters.
- Unit labor costs rose moderately, suggesting little inflation pressure.

Productivity: Moderate Growth in Q2

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German orders in June rose by 3.1%, after a 0.3% crawl higher in May and a sharp 3.2% decline in April. Domestic orders have been gradually building a head of steam after falling 2.4% in April; they rose by 1.3% in May and surged by 7.8% in June. Over the same timeline, there was a 3.8% decline in foreign orders in April; that decline was trimmed to 0.3% in May and became a tiny 0.2% increase in June. In all cases, there was a progression from relatively deep negative numbers in April in the wake of the start of the attacks on Iran. That weakness led to stabilization and a moderate increase in May, and then to a lot more strength in June as markets and economies became hopeful that the Iran war was winding down as both parties seemed to be getting slightly punch-drunk.

**Sequential Growth Patterns**
The progression of orders from 12 months to six months to three months is not clean, with a lack of overall trend for orders. Foreign orders move to progressive weakness from 12 months to six months to three months. Domestic orders are somewhat chaotic in their pattern but show a 13.5% increase over 12 months and an explosive 29.6% annual rate increase over three months. The foreign orders series is weak and somewhat concerning, but the domestic order series maintains quite reassuring growth over 12 months and three months.

**Quarter-to-Date Orders**
In quarter-to-date (QTD), the data are now complete even if they are preliminary, with total orders rising 5.8%, foreign orders rising 6.9%, and domestic orders rising 3.8%, all at annual rates. The queue standings on the levels of orders as of June show strong 85-to-90-percentile levels of activity for total orders and foreign orders, with domestic orders coming in at a milder, but still above-median 64.1 percentile standing. When we rank orders in terms of their year-over-year growth rates, total orders have a 73.0 percentile standing, with foreign orders at a 52.5 percentile standing and domestic orders at a 93.0 percentile mark. The growth performance favors domestic orders, but the level of orders that is being achieved is better for foreign compared to domestic orders using historic comparison standards.

**Sales/Real Sector Sales**
Turning to sales, we find them somewhat more erratic in June, showing a decline for manufacturing overall, with all manufacturing sectors showing month-to-month drops except consumer durables where sales have a 2.5% gain. Manufacturing sales in real terms rose by 0.2%, with mixed sector performance. In April, all sales made a 0.1% gain in real terms amid convoluted sector patterns. The sequential performance of retail sales by sector shows the overall trend is progressively weakening, with all manufacturing sales falling by 0.4% over 12 months, by 0.8% at an annual rate over six months, and by 3.7% at an annual rate over three months. Sales decline for all categories over three months, for most categories over six months, and for all categories over 12 months. The sales picture is not particularly healthy, but fortunately that's a look back at what consumers and businesses have done, while, presumably, the orders data are more robust and looking ahead. The queue standing levels for real sales are quite weak. In fact, for manufacturing, the overall ranking is just above 50% at a 50.9 percentile standing. Capital goods have a very strong 71.8 percentile standing. Intermediate goods have a standing just short of their median at a 45.8 percentile. But real sales for consumer goods, consumer durables, and consumer nondurables are extremely weak, in the bottom 10-percentile standing or even weaker. Turning to rankings based upon the pace of sales on year-over-year data, all of the metrics for real sector sales are below the 50% mark, which means they are below their respective medians for the period. However, the rankings are generally clustered around a 40-percentile standing, which is moderately weak, within roughly 10 percentile points of the median. While not encouraging, it's not devastating.

**Industrial Confidence in Europe**
Industrial confidence measures for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, providing a quick look at the large countries in the European Monetary Union, showed negative readings in June for all the countries, with slight progress made in June compared to May in three of the four countries (France being the exception showing slippage). The averages over 36 months and 12 months again show consistently negative numbers, with very little change over three months compared to 12 months. The rankings of the industrial confidence readings, which are diffusion indexes from the EU, show only Spain with a ranking above its 50-percentile, putting it above its past median. However, France has a 44.3 percentile standing, which is close to the median; Italy has a 37.8 percentile standing; and Germany has the lowest standing at its 32.1 percentile.

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**Summing Up**
The bottom line is that the European industrial data do not show much momentum; they score out as moderately weak. For the most part, German real sales data are also weak; the momentum, gauged by the 12-month growth rate, is below par. However, orders are a relatively bright spot, with growth rankings above the median and in fact quite high, particularly for domestic activity and with strong levels for foreign activity. Momentum is mixed with a choppy domestic number that finishes on a very high note over three months, but that plays against a foreign trend that sees orders consistently weakening. The orders picture for Germany is improving, but for all of Europe conditions are still fairly weak.

German Orders Surge on Domestic Strength

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Construction Output, Building Completions & Starts (Q2)

Industrial Turnover, New Housing CCI (Jun)

International Trade (Jun), Vehicle Registrations (Jul)

IP, Industrial Turnover, Industrial Inventories (Jun)

CPI & HICP, Net Price Indexes (Jul), BOP (Jun)

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