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[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Jonathan Basile

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The U.S. Income and Spending report revealed headline inflation trends cooling in the last couple of months relative to higher price pressures in the immediate aftermath of the Iran War. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in July after a 0.1% MoM decline in June. This is a noticeable contrast relative to the prior monthly run rates in March (0.7%), April (0.4%) and May (0.5%) and the MoM average over the previous five years (0.3%). Shorter-run PCE price trends have decelerated sharply: two-month annualized from April’s 6.7% to July’s 0.4% and three-month annualized from May’s 6.4% to July’s 2.2%. However, the smoother six-month annualized rate remained at an elevated 4.1%, and the year-over-year (YoY) rate was steady at 3.7% for a second straight month.

The underlying core PCE price index showed the same pattern as the headline figure in the last two months. July’s 0.2% MoM gain after June’s 0.1% MoM advance was in stark contrast to the 0.3-0.4% run rates exhibited from December 2025 to May 2026 and the 0.3% average over the previous five years. Given the recent core cooling, the two-month annualized rate eased to a 2.4% pace, less than half February’s 5.2% local high and the lowest level since April 2025. While this is the best progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target in over a year, other inflation trends continue to have 3-handles: 3.0% three-month annualized; 3.5% six-month annualized; 3.3% YoY rate. Moreover, the annual core PCE inflation rate has been above the Fed’s 2% target for 65 months in a row.

The consumer spending picture stalled in volume terms at the beginning of the third quarter. Real personal consumption expenditures were unchanged MoM in July. This marked the softest consumer performance since January’s 0.2% MoM decline. To be sure, real consumer spending was revised up slightly in the second quarter from a 3.2% quarter-over-quarter annualized rate to 3.4%. With one month on the books, the third quarter-to-date annualized rate is starting out at 1.7%, half that of the prior three-month period.

Nominal consumer spending rose 0.2% MoM, less than the 0.5% sequential increase in nominal disposable personal income (DPI). In dollar terms, spending underperformed DPI by about $89 billion, the same amount of the increase in personal saving from June to July. These dynamics produced a four-tenth rise in the saving rate to 3.0% from 2.6% in the previous period.

The July saving rate uptick should be viewed as a brief pause in an otherwise downward sloping path. To maintain spending in the last few years, consumers have whittled down the saving rate over time from the January 2024 high of 6.4% to the current level that is less than half that figure. Historically, a falling saving rate usually is a reflection of buoyant consumer confidence and optimistic income expectations. Neither were on display in Tuesday’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence report for August. This suggests that the lower trend in savings likely is not voluntary.

Forward-looking Consumer Expectations fell to 68.2, remaining below the 80 level for a 19th consecutive month. Conference Board considers this threshold a warning flag that points to heightened consumer pessimism and elevated risk of a near-term economic downturn. Conference Board’s Income Expectations, a subcomponent of Consumer Expectations, provides a focused viewpoint on the outlook for consumer spending. August’s 3.1-point fall to a net 3.8 fully arrested the improvement in the 15 months ended June 2026. This suggests a more cautious near-term spending outlook should be warranted.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Headline and Core PCE price measures cooled in the last two months.
- Real spending stalled in July.
- Saving uptick should be viewed as a pause in the downtrend.

U.S. Income and Spending: Inflation Progress Amid Spending Stall

Sandy Batten

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In the second estimate, real GDP grew 1.5% q/q saar in Q2, the same as the advance estimate, following a 2.1% increase in Q1, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for an unrevised 1.5% quarterly gain. Compared with a year ago, GDP was up 2.1%, also unrevised from the advance estimate. The slightly subpar performance in the second quarter continued to be due mostly to significant drags exerted by trade and inventory investment. An upwardly revised 12.5% q/q surge in imports (previously 11.5%) widened the trade deficit further resulting in net exports subtracting 1.1%-points from overall growth (previously -1.0%-point). Inventory investment declined a little more than previously estimated to $53.1 billion (2017$) in Q2 (previously -$50.8 billion) but still subtracted 0.7%-point as in the advance report. This was the fifth consecutive quarter in which inventories declined, a very unusual occurrence when the economy is not in a recession.

The second estimate of GDP contains the first estimate of corporate profits. They continued to soar in Q2, increasing 9.1% q/q not annualized following a 1.7% quarterly gain in Q1. Over the past four quarters, corporate profits have risen 22.8%, the fastest four-quarter growth since Q4 2021. In Q2, domestic profits jumped 9.9%, the fifth consecutive quarterly increase. Foreign profits rebounded 3.5% in Q2 after a 10.4% quarterly decline in Q1. Also, with an estimate of profits, gross domestic income (a second measure of total output in an economy) can be estimated. Real gross domestic income increased 2.2% q/q saar in Q2, up from 1.2% in Q1 and well above the 1.5% increase in GDP.

Personal consumption expenditures and business spending on equipment and intellectual property provided much of the boost to overall GDP growth in Q2 in the second estimate, as they had in the advance report. PCE grew 3.4% q/q saar in Q2 (previously +3.2%), accounting for 2.3%-points of overall GDP growth (previously 2.1%-points). Growth of spending on goods was revised down to 4.3% from 5.2% while spending on services was revised up to 3.1% from 2.2%.

The second consecutive double-digit increase in business spending on equipment was revised down to 13.6% q/q saar from 15.2% in the advance report. However, the previously reported 5.0% quarterly decline in spending on nonresidential structures was revised up to -1.8%. Consequently, growth in nonresidential fixed investment was revised up slightly to 8.5% from 8.4% in the advance report. The 1.5% increase previously reported for residential investment was revised down to a 1.2% gain.

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The 0.8% q/q saar previously reported for total government spending was revised down to -1.0% in the second estimate. Federal nondefense spending fell 3.5% versus -3.4% previously. Growth of spending by state and local governments slowed to 0.9% from 1.1% in the advance report. Accordingly, the drag from government spending increased to 0.2%-point from 0.1%-point in the advance report.

Reflecting the upward revision to personal consumption and the increased drag from the trade deficit, real domestic demand growth, already strong in the advance report, was revised even stronger. Real final sales to domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory investment and net exports) increased a well above trend 3.3% q/q saar in Q2 versus 3.1% in the advance report. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers (the Fed’s preferred measure of domestic demand) jumped 4.2% q/q in Q2, its largest quarterly gain since Q1 2023, up from 3.9% in the advance report.

GDP inflation measures for Q2 were generally revised slightly faster in the second estimate. GDP price inflation was revised up to 6.4% q/q saar from 6.2% in the advance report, still due mostly to the surge in energy prices that occurred in Q2. The core GDP price index rose 4.4% in the second estimate, the same as in the advance report. PCE price inflation was also revised up to 5.3% from 5.1% in the advance report with core PCE inflation revised up to 3.6% from 3.4% previously.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The 1.5% q/q saar increase in real GDP reported in the advance report was not revised in the second estimate.
- Inventory investment and net exports continued to be meaningful drags on overall growth.
- The strong domestic demand growth reported in the advance report was revised even stronger.
- Corporate profits surged 9.1% q/q not annualized in Q2, the fastest quarterly advance since Q2 2021.

U.S. GDP Growth in Q2 Unrevised in Second Estimate; Corporate Profits Surged

Andrew Cates

**Global Growth Held Up in Q2**
For all the forecasts of a slowdown, the world economy has refused to oblige. Through a year of tariffs, war and the lagged bite of tighter money, global growth held up well in Q2 at close to its long-run pace (chart below). That resilience is noteworthy. Consumer and companies have absorbed shocks that might once have tipped it over and a reminder that the pressures bearing on some financial markets are coming less from a faltering economy than from somewhere else entirely.

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**The Flash PMIs Concur**
The timelier survey evidence only reinforces the point: the expansion is broad, and in most of the major economies gathering pace (chart below). What matters for the argument that follows is where that momentum originates. This is not just a consumer-led, services-driven upswing that had been the norm of recent years. It is being driven, in many parts of the world, by industry — the goods-producing side of the economy that builds, equips and invests. Manufacturing has moved to the front of a global revival, with services accompanying— and, in Europe, lagging — rather than setting the pace. That is arguably the signature of a capital-spending cycle taking hold, and a clear real-economy sign that an investment wave is under way.

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**South Korea Flags the Same Resilience — and the AI Boom**
South Korea is often regarded as the world economy’s early-warning system, wired as it is into the circuitry of global trade. Its exports confirm that demand is holding up. But the arresting part is semiconductors, where growth has gone almost vertical (chart below). This is the artificial-intelligence boom ceasing to be a story about valuations and becoming one about real, tradable demand: the capital being poured into data centres and computing power is now showing up, in hard numbers, in the trade of the economies that make the chips.

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**The Market’s Eye Stays on US Yields — and the Real Rate Leads**
Against so resilient a backdrop, the market’s fixation on US long-term yields can look overwrought. It may not be. What arguably matters is why they are rising: the climb is almost entirely driven by the real rate, not in any great fear (yet) of inflation (chart 4 below). This is not a market fretting too much about inflation; it is a market repricing the cost of capital.

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**Behind It, the World Funds Less of America’s Debt**
That shift is, in part, about who is willing to fund the United States. For two decades the world’s surplus savers — foreign central banks above all — recycled their reserves into Treasuries almost automatically, and asked little in return. That era is now passing (chart below). As the official buyer steps back, the task of financing an ever-larger debt falls to private investors who will hold it only if paid to, and (as now), possibly paid more.

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**And the Surplus Nations Turn to Gold**
If not into American debt, where is the world's surplus going? Increasingly into gold, and our final chart shows the scale of the shift already under way. The motive is straightforward: the freezing of Russia's reserves in 2022 demonstrated that dollar claims carry a political risk that gold does not — a reserve is secure only so long as its holder remains on good terms with the issuing government. The accumulation of gold and the retreat from Treasuries are two aspects of a single reallocation, as reserve managers move their surpluses out of assets they no longer regard as unconditionally safe. For the cost of Western capital, it is a further and durable source of upward pressure.

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A dominant anxiety in financial markets remains the level of long-term interest rates. It is worth beginning, though, with the real economy, where the news of recent days has been more reassuring. Haver’s proprietary calculation of world GDP growth suggests the global economy held up well in the second quarter, expanding at close to its long-run average pace and defying the sharper slowdown many had feared (chart 1). The August flash purchasing managers’ indices tell a similar story, with most of the major economies both in expansion and still improving — though, as ever, the composite readings conceal a more uneven picture beneath (chart 2). From South Korea, whose trade figures are among the world’s most timely, comes the same message, and a pointed one about the artificial-intelligence boom: semiconductor exports have continued to surge (chart 3). Yet the market’s gaze stays fixed on US yields, and a decomposition explains why they are being watched so closely — the rise has come overwhelmingly from the real component, not from any meaningful revival of inflation expectations (chart 4). That, one might argue, is not a passing technical matter but a structural one, rooted in who is willing to fund the US government. The rest of the world now funds a steadily shrinking share of its debt (chart 5), and the surplus nations that once recycled their savings into Treasuries are turning, instead, to gold (chart 6). It is against this backdrop that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent remarks that the government may intervene in the market to support its debt have drawn attention.

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Charts of the Week: Resilient Growth, Restless Yields

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications fell 1.0% w/w (-11.1% y/y) in the week ending August 21 after falling 0.4% w/w (-10.6% y/y) in the week ending August 14, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house edged down 0.3% w/w (-5.7% y/y) in the latest week, following a decline of 2.0% w/w (-3.4% y/y) in the prior week.  Applications for loan refinancing fell 2.0% w/w (-17.1% y/y) in the August 21 week after rising 1.5% w/w (-18.4% y/y) in the August 14 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged up 1bp to 6.97% in the week ending August 21 from 6.96% in the week ending August 14, remaining at levels not seen since July/August 2025. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 3bps to 6.32% in the August 21 week from 6.29% in the August 14 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 3bps to 6.88% in the latest week from 6.85% in the August 14 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose by 4bps to 6.30% in the August 21 week from 6.26% in the August 14 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 42.0% of total applications in the week of August 21 from 41.9% in the week ending August 14. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 7.9% in the latest week from 7.7% in the August 14 week.

The average size of a mortgage edged up 0.5% w/w (-1.8% y/y) to $376,000 in the week ending August 21 after declining 1.4% w/w (-3.5% y/y) to $374,100 in the week ending August 14. The average size of a purchase loan rose 0.8% w/w to $444,100 in the August 21 week after declining 0.2% w/w to $440,500 in the August 14 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage edged down 0.1% w/w to $282,000 in the August 21 week following a decline of 2.4% w/w to $282,200 in the August 14 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans edged up 1bp to 6.97%.
- Average loan size inched up in the August 21 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fell in the August 21 Week

Winnie Tapasanun

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New single-family home sales fell 10.5% m/m (-6.3% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 units in July, below expectations, following an upwardly revised 7.6% gain to 678,000 in June (initially +1.6%, 628,000) and an upwardly revised 1.7% decrease to 630,000 in May (previously -4.3%, 618,000), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected July sales of 620,000. July marked the third m/m decline in four months and the lowest level since January, down 19.8% from a high of 757,000 in November 2025 but up 13.5% from a low of 535,000 in July 2022. The July fall coincided with a rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.54%, the highest since August 2025, from 6.49% in June, according to Freddie Mac.

Regionally, July new home sales showed a mixed performance. Sales in the Midwest plunged 42.7% (-50.6% y/y) to 43,000 in July, the third m/m drop in four months and the lowest level since September 2012, after an 8.5% decrease to 75,000 in June. Sales in the South fell 13.0% (-5.2% y/y) to 383,000, down for the third time in four months, following a 15.2% June recovery to 440,000. To the upside, sales in the Northeast surged 30.3% (95.5% y/y) to 43,000, the fourth m/m gain in five months and the highest level since December 2025, following a 10.0% June increase to 33,000. Sales in the West rebounded 6.2% (2.2% y/y) to 138,000, the strongest reading since April, reversing a 4.4% June decline to 130,000. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 63.1% of total U.S. new home sales.

The median sales price of a new home fell 2.3% (-0.9% y/y) to $393,800 in July, the lowest since July 2021, following a 3.2% decline to $403,100 in June and two consecutive m/m increases. The median sales price was 14.4% below its record high of $460,300 in October 2022 but 9.1% above a low of $361,100 in June 2021. The average sales price of a new home, up for the second time in three months, rose 4.1% (5.4% y/y) to $508,800 following a 7.3% June drop to $488,900 (the lowest since July 2025). The average price was 7.0% above a low of $475,600 in August 2024 but 6.0% below a peak of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market rebounded 1.9% (-1.6% y/y) to 488,000 in July, the third m/m increase in four months and the highest level since October 2025, after a 1.4% decline to 479,000 in June. The latest figure was 15.1% above a low of 424,000 in May 2023. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.6 months in July, the highest since January, from 8.5 months in June, remaining above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023 but below a high of 10.3 months in July 2022.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market fell to 3.2 months in July, the lowest since January and the first m/m decline since August 2025, after registering at 3.5 months for four straight months. The latest reading was above its record low of 1.5 months in September and October 2022 but well below a peak of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales -10.5% m/m (-6.3% y/y) to 607,000 in July; down 19.8% from a November high.
- Sales m/m down in the Midwest (-42.7%) and South (-13.0%); up in the Northeast (+30.3%) and West (+6.2%).
- Sales y/y plunging in the Midwest (-50.6%); surging in the Northeast (+95.5%).
- Median sales price -2.3% m/m to $393,800, a five-year low; avg. price +4.1% m/m to $508,800.
- Unsold inventory +1.9% m/m (-1.6% y/y) to 488,000, highest since Oct. '25.
- Months' supply up to 9.6 mths., a six-month high.

U.S. New Home Sales Hit a Six-Month Low in July

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