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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

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Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 10,000 to 214,000 in the week of December 20, from 224,000 during the week of December 13. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 216,750, a decrease of 750 from the prior week’s unrevised 217,500.

Federal government employees initially filed 805 (NSA) jobless insurance claims in the week ended December 13, after filing 1091 claims in the week ended December 6.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 38,000 to 1.923 million in the week ending December 13, after rising 55,000 to 1.885 million, revised from 1.897 million in the week ending December 6. The four-week moving average was 1.894 million in the week ending December 13, down 5,250 from 1.899 million, revised from 1,902,000 in the week ending December 6. The insured unemployment rate stood at 1.3% in the week of December 13, up from 1.2% in the week of December 6.

Federal government employees’ continuing benefits claims were 12,887 (NSA) in the week ending December 6, from 14,077 (NSA) in the week of November 29. 

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending December 6, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey and Washington (both 2.40%), Massachusetts and Minnesota (both 2.10%), California and Rhode Island (both 2.00%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), and Alabama, Louisiana, North Carolina (all 0.40%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.80%), Illinois and Pennsylvania (both 1.70%), and Texas (1.10%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.


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- Initial claims declined from the prior week.
- Continuing claims rose from the prior week.
- The insured unemployment rate edged up.


U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Dropped in Latest Week

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Mortgage applications dropped 5.0% w/w (+49.8% y/y) in the week of December 19, after a drop of 3.8% w/w (+40.9% y/y) in the week of December 12, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 3.7% w/w (+15.9% y/y) in the latest week, the third consecutive weekly decline, following a drop of 2.8% w/w (+12.3% y/y) in the December 12 week. Applications for loan refinancing dropped 5.6% w/w (+110.1% y/y) in the December 19 week after a decline of 3.6% w/w (+86.0% y/y) in the week of December 12. 

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 8bps to 6.48% in the week ending December 19 from 6.56% in the week ending December 12. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped 5bps to 5.86% in the latest week from 5.91% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 8bps to 6.63% in the December 19 week from 6.55% in the December 12 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM jumped 20bps to 5.96% in the latest week from 5.76% in the December 12 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan edged up to 59.1% of total applications in the December19 week from 59.0% in the week ending December 12. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.1% in the latest week from 7.2% in the December 12 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan edged down 0.1% w/w (+7.8% y/y) to $399,700 in the week ending December 19, following a rise of 1.5% w/w (6.4% y/y) to $400,000 in the December 12 week. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.0% w/w (1.1% y/y) to $428,600 in the latest week, after rising 0.6% w/w (-0.3% y/y) to $424,200 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 0.9% w/w (+24.9% y/y) to $379,700 in the December 19 week, following a rise of 2.3% w/w (19.8% y/y) to $383,300 in the week ending December 12.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.


- Both purchase applications and refinancing loan applications fell in the latest week.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans fell to 6.48%.
- Average loan size edged down.


U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped in the Week of December 19

Tom Moeller

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Real GDP grew 4.3% (SAAR) during the third quarter following a 3.8% Q2 gain, revised from 3.3% reported initially. These increases followed a minimally revised 0.6% decline in Q1. A 3.0% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Growth during the last four quarters of 2.3% compared to 2.1% y/y in Q2 and remained below its most recent high of 3.4% in Q4 2023.

After-tax corporate profits without IVA & CCA adjustment surged 7.0% (4.2% y/y) last quarter after edging 0.6% higher in Q2. Before-tax earnings with IVA & CCA rose 4.2% (9.1% y/y) after improving 0.2% in Q2. Financial sector earnings rose 6.2% (21.1% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q2. Nonfinancial corporate profits rose 2.5% (3.3% y/y) after edging 0.5% higher in Q2. Earnings from abroad jumped 10.6% (26.3% y/y) following a 2.9% Q2  decline.

Foreign trade balance improvement added 1.59 percentage points to growth last quarter after adding 4.83 percentage points in Q2. Real exports increased 2.1% (1.5% y/y) after falling 0.5% in Q2. Real imports declined 1.2% (-1.8% y/y) after declining 8.3% in Q2. Inventories subtracted 0.22 percentage points from growth after subtracting 3.44 percentage point from Q2 growth.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 3.0% (2.6% y/y) last quartter after rising 2.9% in Q2, revised from 1.6%. Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.5% (2.6% y/y) after a 2.5% rise, revised from 1.6%. Durable goods spending rose 1.6% (3.2% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q2. Motor vehicle purchases declined 6.7% (+1.6% y/y) after strengthening 9.7% in Q2. Spending on home furnishings & appliances weakened 4.2% (+0.7% y/y) following a 2.0% fall. Recreational goods & vehicle buying surged 15.7% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after falling 2.5% in Q2.

Nondurable goods outlays in constant dollars rose 3.9% (3.0% y/y) last quarter following 2.2% growth in Q2. Apparel spending strengthened 6.7% (7.0% y/y) following a 5.8% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.0% (1.3% y/y) after edging 0.2% higher. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases improved 1.3% (-0.2% y/y) after falling 2.8% in Q2.



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Real spending on services increased 3.7% (2.4% y/y) in Q3 after a 2.6% Q2 gain. Outlays on housing & utilities edged 0.3% higher (1.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q2. Health care expenditures surged 6.8% (4.5% y/y) after a 4.8% increase. Transportation outlays gained 3.1% both  q/q and y/y after a 7.0% rise, while recreation spending jumped 6.6% (2.4% y/y) following a 3.9% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures increased 1.2% (2.0% y/y) after strengthening 5.9% in Q2. Financial services expenditures rose 2.6% both q/q and y/y following a 4.8% Q2 increase.

Business fixed investment in constant dollars increased 2.8% (3.9% y/y) last  quarter following a 7.3% Q2 rise, revised from 5.7%. Expenditures on structures declined 6.3% both q/q and y/y, after falling for six consecutive quarters. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment increased 5.4% (7.4% y/y), after strengthening 8.5% in Q2. Outlays on information processing equipment rose 8.4% (18.6% y/y), after strengthening 11.7% during Q2. Industrial equipment investment rose 2.0% (3.4% y/y) after a 6.5% rise. Transportation equipment investment fell  2.7% (+3.0% y/y) after strengthening 25.2%. Intellectual property product spending rose 5.4% last quarter (6.4% y/y), after surging 15.0% in Q2.

Residential structures investment in real terms declined 5.1% (-1.8% y/y), the same as in Q2. It was the third consecutive quartly decline.

Government spending rose 2.2% (1.1% y/y) during the third quarter after an unrevised 0.1% easing in Q2. Federal government expenditures rose 2.9% (-1.0% y/y) after falling 5.3% in Q2. National defense expenditures increased 5.8% (1.0% y/y) after rising 0.9% in Q2. State & local government spending rose 1.8% (2.4% y/y) following a 3.1% rise.

The GDP chain price index rose 3.8% (3.0% y/y) last quarter vs. 2.1% in Q2. The PCE chain price index increased 2.8% (2.7% y/y) following a 2.1% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 2.9% (2.9% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q2. The business fixed investment price index rose 5.2% (1.5% y/y) in Q3 after a 0.4% decline. The residential price index rose 4.5% (3.3% y/y) last quarter after a 2.2% rise, while the government price index increased 4.4% (3.5% y/y) following a 3.3% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.



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- Consumer spending strengthens; growth in business investment decelerates.
- Corporate profit growth led by earnings abroad.
- Rise in chain price index accelerates.


U.S. GDP Growth is Strong in Q3; Profits Jump

Sandy Batten

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Industrial production fell 0.1% m/m in October but rose 0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y) in November. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 0.1% monthly gains in both months. Manufacturing activity was tepid with manufacturing production falling 0.4% m/m in October and unchanged in November. Manufacturing output has not posted a monthly gain since July. Mining output fell 0.8% m/m in October but rebounded 1.7% m/m in November. Utilities output surged 2.6% m/m in October but fell 0.4% m/m in November. Compared to a year ago, manufacturing production is up 1.9%; mining output is up 3.9%; and utilities output is up 4.8%.

By market group, output of durable consumer goods plunged 2.6% m/m in October and fell another 0.2% in November. Production of durable consumer goods has declined in five of the previous six months. Production of nondurable consumer goods rose 0.5% m/m in both October and November. Compared to a year ago, durable consumer goods production has fallen 5.9% while nondurable consumer goods output has risen 2.7%. Business equipment production fell 0.3% m/m in October but rebounded 0.3% m/m in November and is up 11.2% y/y. Production of nonindustrial supplies fell 0.3% m/m in both October and November.

By industry group, output of durable goods fell 0.5% m/m in October and declined 0.1% m/m in November but were up 3.2% from a year ago. Motor vehicle and parts production slumped 5.1% m/m in October and declined 1.0% m/m in November to be down 5.6% from a year ago. Monthly motor vehicle output has declined in five of the previous six months. In contrast, production of computers and electronic products increased 1.5% m/m in October and rose 0.8% m/m in November. Aerospace production continued to rise, increasing 2.0% m/m in October and 1.1% m/m in November to be up 25.2% from a year ago. Output of nondurable goods fell 0.2% m/m in October and edged up 0.1% m/m in November. Their output is up 0.9% from a year ago. Apparel output fell 1.3% m/m in October but recovered in November, rising 2.3% m/m. Food and beverage output rose 0.3% m/m in October and another 1.2% in November.

Output of selected high-technology industries rebounded in October and November. After having declined 1.0% m/m in both August and September, production jumped 1.9% m/m in October and 1.1% m/m in November to stand 11.8% higher than a year ago. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries fell 0.4% m/m in October and was unchanged in November. It has risen only 1.6% over the past year. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicle production was unchanged in October and edged up 0.1% m/m in November; it is up 2.6% y/y.

Total industry capacity utilization edged down to 75.9% in October from 76.0% in September and then recovered the decline in November, edging up to 76.0%. In the manufacturing sector, the utilization rate slumped to 75.4% in October from 75.8% in September and remained at 75.4% in November. The October/November reading is the lowest since January.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Today’s release contained figures for both October and November that had been delayed by the federal government shutdown.
- IP fell in October but recovered in November.
- Manufacturing output was tepid, falling in October and unchanged in November.
- A surge in utilities output in October prevented a larger decline in total production.
- A jump in mining output in November accounted for all of the increase in total production.


U.S. Industrial Production Fell in October and Recovered in November

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New orders for durable goods fell a more-than-expected 2.2% (+4.8% y/y) in October following an upwardly revised 0.7% m/m rise in September (previously +0.5% m/m) and a 3.0% monthly jump in August. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.5% m/m decline. A 23.7% m/m drop in aircraft orders more than accounted for the overall decline. Orders excluding aircraft increased 0.2% m/m (4.0% y/y) in October on top of a 0.5% monthly increase in September.

More generally, transportation orders fell 6.5% m/m (+7.3% y/y) in October following a 0.6% m/m increase in September and an 8.0% monthly jump in August. In addition to the drop in aircraft orders, orders for motor vehicles and parts edged up 0.1% m/m in October, their sixth consecutive monthly increase. Across other sectors, orders for primary metals fell 0.7% m/m, their first monthly decline in ten months. Orders for electrical equipment and appliances slumped 1.5% m/m, their first monthly decline in seven months. In contrast, orders for fabricated metal products rose 0.5% m/m, their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Machinery orders increased 0.8% m/m, their eighth consecutive monthly rise. Orders for computers and electronic products increased a solid 1.0% m/m on top of a 1.2% monthly increase in September.

Shipments of core capital goods (nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft) are a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts. They rose 0.7% m/m in October following an upwardly revised 1.2% monthly gain in September (previously +0.9%). The was the second consecutive monthly increase and the fifth in the past six months. The strong end to Q3 and the continued rise in the first month of Q4 provides a solid starting point for all of Q4. The October shipments figure was 5.9% at an annual rate above the Q3 average. Core capital goods orders rose 0.5% m/m in October on top of an upwardly revised 1.1% m/m increase in September (previously +0.9%). This was the fourth consecutive monthly rise.

Total manufacturing shipments edged up 0.1% m/m (+2.8% y/y) in October after having been essentially unchanged in September. Shipments of durable goods increased 0.6% m/m (5.9% y/y), led by 1.4% monthly jump in transportation shipments. However, apart from a 0.1% m/m decline in shipments of other durable goods, all of the other major sectors posted monthly gains in October. In contrast, shipments of nondurable goods fell 0.4% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October for their third consecutive monthly decline. The monthly decline was led by a 2.4% m/m fall in shipments of petroleum and coal products although it was relatively widely spread across major sectors. The one exception was a 2.1% m/m increase in leather product shipments, but this came after four consecutive sizeable monthly declines.

Unfilled durable goods orders increased 0.2% m/m (7.9% y/y) in October for their third consecutive monthly gain following a 0.8% m/m rise in September and a 0.7% m/m increase in August. Total factory inventories were unchanged in October (+1.4% y/y) following 0.1% monthly declines in both August and September. Durable goods inventories edged up 0.1% m/m in October while inventories of nondurable goods fell 0.2% m/m, the third consecutive monthly decline.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- New orders for durable goods slumped 2.2% m/m in October following increases in both August and September
- A 24% monthly drop in aircraft orders drove the overall decline
- Orders excluding aircraft rose 0.2% m/m in October
- Core capital goods shipments and orders continued to rise in October with small upward revisions to September


Weak Aircraft Orders Pushed Down U.S. Durable Goods Orders in October

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External Trade Index (Oct), Turnover in Services (Oct)