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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Sandy Batten

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Nonfarm business productivity (output per hour) continued its robust rise in Q4, increasing 2.8% q/q SAAR following an upwardly revised 5.2% quarterly jump in Q3 (previously 4.9%). A quarterly gain of 1.9% was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Compared to a year ago, productivity rose 2.8% in Q3, up from an upwardly revised 2.4% in Q3 (previously 1.9%). The January employment report contained meaningful downward revisions to employment (and hours) in 2024 and 2025. However, there were no significant revisions to output, meaning that productivity growth was generally revised higher. Since productivity growth began to accelerate at the beginning of 2023, it has grown at a well above trend 2.8% annual rate. Strong productivity is a key factor for boosting real incomes and restraining inflation pressures.

Nonfarm business output increased 2.6% q/q in Q4 on top of unrevised gains of 5.4% q/q in Q3 and 5.2% quarterly in Q2 while hours worked edged down 0.2% q/q in Q4, the first quarterly decline since Q4 2023, versus a 0.2% quarterly increase in Q3 (previously 0.5% q/q). Compensation growth picked up to 5.7% q/q in Q4 from an upwardly revised 3.3% in Q3 (previously 2.9% q/q) in Q3. Compared to a year ago, compensation growth picked up to 4.1% in Q4 from 3.8% in Q3. Accordingly, with the slowdown in productivity and pickup in compensation, unit labor costs increased 2.8% q/q after quarterly decreases of 1.8% and 2.9% in Q3 and Q2, respectively. Compared to a year ago, unit labor cost growth was unchanged at 1.3%, the smallest annual gain since Q3 2023.

Factory output fell 2.2% q/q SAAR in Q4, its first quarterly decline in a year, following a slightly downwardly revised 2.9% in Q3 (previously 3.0%). Hours worked fell 0.3% in Q4, the sixth consecutive quarterly decline, following a 0.6% q/q decline in Q3. Consequently, factory productivity slumped 1.9% q/q, its first quarterly decline since Q3 2024, after having posted solid gains of 3.6% in Q3, 3.2% in Q2 and 4.6% in Q1. Factory compensation growth picked up to 6.4% q/q on top of a 4.8% quarterly jump in Q3. The combination of a decline in productivity and a meaningful rise in compensation led to an 8.3% quarterly surge in manufacturing unit labor costs in Q4, the largest quarterly increase since Q3 2022.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Nonfarm business output per hour rose 2.8% q/q SAAR in Q4 on top of an upward revision to Q3.
- Compensation jumped 5.7% q/q in Q4 resulting in a 2.8% quarterly increase in unit labor costs.

U.S. Productivity Increases More than Expected in Q4

Michael J. Moran

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The headline figure for import prices rose 0.2% in January (annual rate of 2.6%), matching the change in December and continuing a pattern of generally subdued changes. The ups and downs of import prices in the past two years have left little net change, with the year-over-year rate at -0.1% in January.

The flat trend, though, reflected distinctly different patterns in the prices of petroleum products and nonpetroleum goods. Petrol prices have traced an irregular downward path, with notable weakness recently: January marked the sixth consecutive decline. Prices of nonpetroleum products, in contrast, broke from a flat trend most of last year with surges in both December and January.

The distinctly different paths are evident in the chart above (right), which plots the levels of these price indexes rather than the percent changes. (Figures for nonpetroleum prices are not available for October because of the government shutdown.) The break in trend for nonpetroleum import prices is striking. One is tempted to argue that the surge reflects the effects of tariffs, but this is most likely not the case. The figures in this report are based on invoices before the imposition of tariffs, and thus there is no direct effect.

However, one might imagine an indirect effect. If foreign producers wished to absorb the tariff burden to remain competitive in the US market, they could reduce invoiced prices to keep post-tariff prices steady. Indeed, nonpetroleum prices fell in both May and June following the announcement of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs. The subsequent easing of the draconian tariffs announced in April might have led importers to return to original prices in recent months, which would now be picked up as higher prices.

On the export side, prices rose 0.59% in December and 0.65% in January (annual rates of 7.3% and 8.0%). The jumps represent a marked deviation from the modest net change seen from March through September last year (October is not available because of the government shutdown). Several components of the headline index remained contained (automobiles, food, industrial supplies), but prices of consumer goods and capital goods surged. The cause of the acceleration is not perfectly clear. Perhaps the soft tone of the foreign exchange value of the dollar in the past year or so offered the opportunity to boost profit margins by raising dollar prices.

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Nonpetroleum import prices break from a flat trend with jumps in both December and January.
- Export prices also accelerate, led by consumer goods and capital goods.

Export and Import Prices: Upward Pressure Points in January

Robert Brusca

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Motor vehicle registrations in January fell by 6.1%, while overall retail sales volume, a separate category, fell by 0.1%. Motor vehicle registrations are notoriously volatile; they increased by 1.8% in December and fell by 3.3% in November. Retail sales, however, have been more chronically flat, with no change in November, a 0.2% increase in December, and now a 0.1% decline in January. These numbers are quite weak because they're already inflation-adjusted, expressed in volume terms.

Sequentially volume sales are weakening in the EMU, with the growth rate slipping from 2.1% over 12 months to a 1.4% pace over six months to just a 0.4% annual rate gain over three months. Food sales have been more stable but have been somewhat more erratically weakened over this same period. Motor vehicle registrations have been imploding, falling by 3% over 12 months, dropping to a 12.4% annual rate over six months and plunging at a 27.1% annual rate over three months.

In the unfolding quarter to date, with one month's data in hand, first quarter retail sales are rising at a 0.2% annual rate; food sales are rising at a 2.7% annual rate. Motor vehicle registrations are declining at a 31.3% annual rate.

We can also inspect these data on a country by country basis. We have Germany and the Netherlands from the European Monetary Union, Sweden and Norway representing Northern Europe, the United Kingdom as a nonaligned former monetary union member, and lastly Denmark as an EU member.

Germany is the largest economy in Europe, and its sales fell in January. More disconcerting, sales in Germany are generally on a decelerating path, growing at a 1.2% pace over 12 months, at a 0.5% pace over six months, and contracting at a 1% annual rate pace over three months. The Netherlands, another monetary union member, is experiencing a very different trend, with sales rising by 3.3% in January and then accelerating from 12 months to six months to three months as growth rates have progressed from 1.4% to 6.1% to 8.8%, respectively. In Denmark, a European Union member but not a monetary union member, sales rose by 0.7% in January, while its sequential sales show growth rates of 3.7% over 12 months and 3.8% over six months, and then suddenly weaken to 0.4% over three months.

The United Kingdom is showing a progression of sales that is fairly firm. In January, sales rose by 1.9%. The annual growth rate is at 4.5% over 12 months, easing slightly to 3% over six months, and then jumping to 7.7% over three months.

Sweden and Norway are fellow Northern European economies but do not share the same trends in retail sales. In January, Swedish sales rose by 0.1%, while Norwegian sales rose by 1.1%. The progression of growth rates in Sweden shows sales over 4% over six months and 12 months, with the growth rate decelerating to 2.1% at an annual rate over three months. In Norway, 12-month and 6-month growth rates for sales are at 3% to 4% and then jump to a 7.3% annual rate over three months.

Monthly data on sales volume growth have been irregular. January was the most consistently strong month of the most recent three, albeit with Germany posting a significantly large drop in retail sales, which is disconcerting for the largest economy in the euro area.

The sequential data show sales accelerations in the Netherlands and in Norway juxtaposed once again to Germany, where sales growth rates are decelerating and culminate in declining growth over the most recent three months. Sequential data also show a clear deceleration in sales volumes for the euro area as a whole. In addition, there is a significant sales implosion for motor vehicle registrations on the same timeline.

The quarter-to-date data for the euro area show weak sales growth, while the country level data show sales increasing for all the countries in the table except Germany in the quarter to date, which is a nascent calculation at this point.

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From here on out, the outlook encounters more cross currents since inflation in the euro area appears to be tamer but continues to run at a pace slightly excessive relative to target. Now with a new conflict in the Middle East and concern about oil being able to squeeze through the Strait of Hormuz, there's a more significant question about how much further oil prices might rise, further stoking inflation that is already mildly excessive in most countries that target inflation. There is an additional facet about uncertainty and the impact it will have on growth, although at this point the war in the Middle East appears to be exceptionally well conducted and appears to be quite contained. However, we know that conditions like this can change quickly, although it's not out of the question that this could be an exception.

These factors infuse the outlook with additional elements of uncertainty. Central banks are going to be faced with the question of whether they are going to allow themselves to continue overshooting their targets as they have been doing for some time, or whether they are going to take even mild steps to try to contain what could be spreading inflation pressures.

In Asia, Japan is facing more extreme questions, with its exchange rate having moved strongly and its Prime Minister wanting to put monetary tightening on hold to solidify an economic expansion despite the fact that inflation has been running on the hot side. And in the United States, political pressures continue to tear at the political fabric, and it faces midterm elections at the end of the year; both parties are preparing for and posturing for that event. The year ahead could prove to be interesting in either a desirable or an undesirable way - stay tuned.

Europe

European Retail Sales Dither While Auto Registrations Weaken

Andrew Cates

**Geopolitical risk**
The escalation in Middle East tensions has already been reflected in a sharp rise in the Caldara–Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index, shown in the first chart below. This index—based on the frequency of geopolitical risk references in major international newspapers—has jumped to levels typically associated with periods of acute international tension. For the global economy, the immediate concern is less the direct economic damage and more the uncertainty generated by the conflict. The Middle East remains central to the global energy system, and concerns over potential disruption to oil infrastructure or shipping routes—particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—have already contributed to a sharp rise in energy prices, with knock-on effects for financial markets and the broader outlook for global growth.

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**The Strait of Hormuz**
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is highlighted in the next chart below, which shows tanker transit calls through the strait. After rising through February, tanker movements have dropped sharply in the wake of the recent escalation in regional tensions. This narrow maritime corridor is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, with roughly a fifth of global oil supply and a large share of LNG exports passing through it each day. But its importance extends beyond hydrocarbons: the Gulf is also a major exporter of petrochemicals and fertilizers such as ammonia and urea, key inputs for global agriculture. Any sustained disruption to traffic through Hormuz would therefore have implications not only for energy markets but also for broader global supply chains.

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**Oil and Natural Gas**
As noted, the sensitivity of energy markets to developments in the Gulf has been evident in the behaviour of both oil and gas prices. The next chart below shows a sharp move higher in Brent crude alongside a pronounced spike in natural gas futures in recent days. While oil understandably attracts most of the attention given the volume that transits through the Strait of Hormuz, natural gas is equally important from a macroeconomic perspective. The Gulf region is a major supplier of LNG to Europe and Asia, and disruptions to shipping routes or regional infrastructure can quickly tighten global gas markets. For Europe in particular—still structurally more exposed to imported LNG following the loss of Russian pipeline supply—higher gas prices feed directly into electricity costs, industrial input prices and household energy bills. In short, the latest escalation is not simply an oil story; it is an energy story more broadly, with implications for inflation, real incomes and growth across the global economy.

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**Global shipping costs and supply chain pressures**
Beyond energy markets, and as also noted above, developments in the Middle East also have the potential to reverberate through global trade and supply chains. The next chart below illustrates this link by comparing the Baltic Exchange Panamax Index—a key benchmark for dry bulk shipping costs—with the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. The Panamax index tracks freight rates for vessels typically used to transport bulk commodities such as grains, coal and fertilizers, cargoes that frequently move through or originate from the Gulf region. As such, it provides a useful barometer of shipping conditions that are particularly relevant for the Middle East. Historically, spikes in shipping costs have tended to coincide with periods of heightened supply chain stress, as seen most clearly during the pandemic. Should tensions in the region more forcefully disrupt maritime traffic or insurance conditions for vessels operating near the Strait of Hormuz, freight rates could rise again, potentially amplifying broader supply chain pressures and adding another layer of uncertainty to the global economic outlook.

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**Energy prices and inflation**
Developments in energy markets also matter because of their close connection with inflation dynamics and monetary policy. The fifth chart below compares year-on-year changes in Brent crude oil prices with the Citigroup Global Inflation Surprise Index, which measures whether inflation outcomes are coming in above or below economists’ expectations. Historically, periods of sharply rising oil prices have often coincided with upside inflation surprises, most notably during the pandemic recovery when energy prices surged and global inflation pressures intensified. This relationship highlights why events in the Middle East are being watched so closely by policymakers. A sustained rise in energy prices would risk complicating the disinflation process that many central banks have been trying to engineer. In turn, this could delay or limit the scope for interest rate cuts and tighten financial conditions more broadly, adding another potential headwind to the global economic outlook.

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**Natural gas and electricity generation**
The importance of natural gas to the global economy is further illustrated in the final chart, which shows global per capita electricity generation by source. While renewable energy has expanded rapidly in recent years, fossil fuels continue to play a dominant role in meeting rising electricity demand. In particular, natural gas has become an increasingly important component of the global power mix, reflecting its flexibility, relatively lower carbon intensity compared with coal and oil, and its ability to provide reliable baseload and balancing power. Oil, by contrast, now plays only a very limited role in electricity generation in most economies. This backdrop is especially relevant given the rapid expansion of energy demand associated with artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. Data centres, cloud computing networks and the broader digital economy require vast and reliable supplies of electricity. While renewables are likely to account for a growing share of new capacity, natural gas is expected to remain a critical bridging fuel in ensuring system stability and meeting peak demand. As a result, disruptions to global energy markets—particularly those affecting natural gas and LNG flows from the Middle East—could have implications that extend well beyond traditional energy markets, potentially affecting the pace at which new digital and AI-related infrastructure can be deployed.

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated sharply following joint air strikes by Israel and the United States on strategic targets in Iran. While the ultimate trajectory of the conflict remains highly uncertain, the episode highlights the potential for geopolitical shocks to ripple through multiple channels of the global economy—from energy markets and shipping routes to supply chains, inflation dynamics and monetary policy. In this week’s _Charts of the Week_, we present six charts that illustrate some of the key issues, implications and points to watch, including movements in geopolitical risk (chart 1), shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz (chart 2), energy prices (chart 3), global supply chain pressures (chart 4), inflation surprises (chart 5) and the evolving structure of global electricity generation (chart 6). Together they provide a framework for thinking about how events in the region could shape the outlook for the world economy in the months ahead.

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Charts of the Week: Shockwaves from the Gulf

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The services index published by the Institute for Supply Management rose 2.3 index points in February to 56.1, signaling solid expansion in the service sectors of the economy. February marked the 20th consecutive month with a reading above the 50 threshold (which separates expansion from contraction), and it was the firmest reading since mid-2022. The increase in the index was broadly based, as three of the four components contributed positively, and all were above the 50 threshold.

The supplier delivery index was the only component that did not boost the headline measure, and its monthly change was minuscule (off 0.3 index point to 53.9). The dip, and the relatively low reading on this measure, could be viewed in a positive light, as the new information suggests that supply-chain problems are not an issue at this time.

The new orders index made the largest contribution to the advance in the headline measure, jumping 5.5 points to 58.6, moving to the upper end of the range of the past few years. With order flows firm, business activity remained brisk, as this component rose 2.5 points to 59.9. Business activity recovered quickly from the pandemic and has been above 50 since June 2020. The latest reading was in the upper portion of the range in place since 2022. The employment index was a bit of a laggard, as it rose only 1.5 points, and its level of 51.8 was light relative to the other components. Still, the latest reading was encouraging, as it marked the third consecutive month above 50, representing a break from the sub-50 results that were common in 2024 and 2025.

The prices index, which is not a component of the headline index, fell 3.6 points to 63.0. The elevated level is a concern, but it is not a shocking result, as this measure runs high relative to the other indexes in this report. Observations above 70 have occurred several times in years past, and the index was above 80 for most months during the inflation burst of 2021-22. Although still elevated, the prices index seems to be easing, as February marked the third decline in the past four months, and the measure is now noticeably shy of the 69.5 reading in October of last year.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector; below 50 suggests contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Headline index for February jumped to a multi-year high.
- Three of the four components contributed positively.
- The prices index, although still elevated, eased.

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Latest Releases

Economy in Brief

U.S. Productivity Increases More than Expected in Q4

Export and Import Prices: Upward Pressure Points in January

European Retail Sales Dither While Auto Registrations Weaken

Charts of the Week: Shockwaves from the Gulf

ISM Services: Favorable News from Every Perspective