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Andrew Cates

**A kinder mix**
The October Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey showed upward revisions to this year’s growth forecasts for fourteen of the sixteen economies the panel covers, and lower inflation forecasts for eleven. In eleven cases the two moved together, with stronger growth and lower inflation. The euro area, Canada and Taiwan were marked up on growth and inflation. France is the only economy with growth marked down and inflation up, while China is the only economy marked lower on both. Three months is a short window and some of this will prove to be noise. Faster growth with slower inflation is consistent with better supply rather than stronger demand, and the panel has rarely leaned this consistently in one direction.

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**Little change at the horizon**
The October release also includes the semiannual long-range survey, and here the US panel has proved markedly less generous. Its estimate of American trend growth over the next five years has risen to 2.1 per cent, two tenths above a year ago, while its long-run inflation view slipped a tenth to 2.2 per cent. Directionally that is the same supply story. The scale of the revisions, however, is modest. Trend growth fell by a full percentage point between 2012 and 2018, and this year's move recovers a fifth of it; 2.1 per cent is precisely where the panel sat in 2016, 2017 and 2021. The long-run inflation estimate, for its part, has not left a 0.2 percentage point band since 2014 and offers little evidence of a change in expectations. Whatever forecasters expect of artificial intelligence, they have yet to write much of it into their long-term outlook.

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**One sector doing the lifting**
US construction spending offers a plainer account of the same phenomenon. Data centres added $36 billion to annual spending in the year to August, power a further $15 billion and public works $13 billion. Against that, residential building fell by $45 billion, manufacturing structures by $42 billion and commercial construction by $7 billion. The expanding categories are precisely those the AI investment narrative celebrates; the contracting ones are larger, and together they more than offset those gains. An economy may run an investment boom in one sector while the remainder of its building activity declines, and the aggregate will appear unremarkable. That is roughly what the figures now describe, and it helps explain why a concentrated investment boom need not imply a large increase in economy-wide growth.

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**What China now sells**
The September trade figures from China, published this week, offered further evidence of the changing composition of demand. Exports rose at their fastest pace since February, and integrated circuits alone accounted for close to a quarter of the increase. Chips now constitute 10% of all Chinese merchandise exports, against roughly 4% through 2021. Motor vehicles have reached 4.6% and lithium-ion batteries 2.4%. Solar cells have travelled in the opposite direction, falling from a peak above 1.8% in early 2023 to little more than 0.5%, with August volumes down almost 40% on the year. The familiar grouping of electric vehicles, batteries and panels no longer moves in unison: two are climbing and the third is in retreat.

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**Europe's widening trade deficit**
For Brussels the arithmetic is uncomfortable. Over the 12 months to September, China sold the European Union $628 billion of goods and bought $279 billion, leaving a bilateral surplus of $349 billion against $285 billion a year earlier. In September alone, Chinese exports to the EU rose 25.3% while its imports rose 0.7%. European sales to China have been flat in nominal dollars for five years. That is the backdrop to this month’s restrictions on hybrid vehicles and to the pressure for rebalancing, although the September data offer little evidence that European measures have yet narrowed the imbalance.

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**Words and pictures**
This leaves the question of what the technology is being used for. Among European enterprises reporting artificial-intelligence use last year, the most common applications were text mining, the generation of images, video and audio, and natural language generation. Applications with a more direct connection to operational efficiency sit lower down the list: process automation, production processes, logistics, autonomous movement. These are 2025 figures, and in a field moving this fast a year is a long time; the survey tells us where adoption had reached, not where it is heading. Even so, capital is flowing into data centres and the chips that fill them, and the chips are moving in volume, while adoption at the level of the firm appears concentrated in the production of content rather than the running of operations. Content generation can itself raise productivity. But until adoption spreads more widely across business operations, the Blue Chip panel has reason to remain cautious about the scale of the gains over the next five years.

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The past week saw investors begin to question the AI optimism that has sustained equity markets all year. Asian technology stocks fell sharply, the Nasdaq retreated to its weakest level this month, and government bonds attracted a defensive bid. The reappraisal arguably concerned positioning in the artificial-intelligence complex rather than the macroeconomic backdrop, which, if anything, improved. The October Blue Chip survey delivered growth upgrades across almost the entire panel alongside lower inflation forecasts for this year (chart 1), a combination consistent with an improvement in supply. The same US forecasters, however, made only modest changes to their view of the coming five years (chart 2). Chinese customs figures for September highlighted the growing importance of chips: exports rose 36.3 per cent on the year and the monthly surplus reached 133.5 billion dollars, with semiconductors furnishing close to a quarter of the increase (chart 4). For the European Union, the bilateral deficit with China has widened by more than $60 billion in 12 months (chart 5). Yet the composition of American construction spending (chart 3) and the uses to which European firms actually put AI technology (chart 6) suggest an expansion narrower than the headline figures imply.

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Charts of the Week: The Narrow Boom

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total retail sales rose a larger-than-expected 0.8% m/m to $745.02 billion in September, the seventh m/m rise in eight months, following a 1.3% gain in August (+1.1% previously reported on Sept. 28 and +1.2% on Sept. 16) and a 0.4% decline in July (-0.5% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed, suggesting resilient consumer spending and continued domestic demand in Q3 2026. A 0.3% m/m September increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 6.3% in September, the highest since May, from 5.6% in August (3.7% in September 2025), while remaining well below a high of 17.5% in February 2022 and a record high of 51.5% in April 2021. On a quarterly basis, retail sales rose 1.2% q/q in Q3 ’26 (5.5% y/y), slowing from 2.8% q/q in Q2 ’26 (5.6% y/y), suggesting a cooler pace of nominal consumer spending growth in Q3 ’26. (**Note**: On September 28, the Census Bureau released annual Retail Trade revisions – no new observations were reported; revised data reflected the introduction of new seasonal factors and the results of the 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey; data were revised back to 1992.)

Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales grew a greater-than-expected 0.9% (7.2% y/y) in September after a 1.4% gain in August (+1.3% previously reported on Sept. 28 and +1.4% on Sept. 16). A 0.5% m/m September rise had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts edged up 0.2% (2.5% y/y), the fourth m/m increase in five months, after a 0.7% August rebound; this compared to a 3.8% drop (-3.5% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales following a 2.2% August gain.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, ticked up 0.1% (4.7% y/y) in September, the seventh m/m rise in eight months, following a 1.2% rebound in August, capping a firm Q3 2026 for underlying consumer demand. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials rose 0.3% (5.1% y/y), up for the seventh time in eight months, after a 1.2% August increase.

Sales by category were mixed in September. Posting the biggest m/m gain among major categories, gasoline station sales surged 6.4% (28.1% y/y) in September, the largest since March, after a 4.0% recovery in August, as the September CPI showed gasoline prices up 9.1% (34.2% y/y); gasoline stations accounted for 71.4% of the $5.7 billion increase in total retail sales. Furniture & home furnishing store sales advanced 1.3% (4.9% y/y) following a 0.2% August increase. Electronics & appliance store sales climbed 0.6% (9.4% y/y), the fourth straight m/m gain and the 11th in 12 months, on top of a 2.1% August rise. Nonstore retail sales grew 0.3% (8.2% y/y), up for the 11th time in 12 months, following a 2.0% August increase. In contrast, miscellaneous store sales dropped 3.0% (+10.9% y/y), the first m/m decline since April and the steepest since August 2025, after a 3.6% August jump. Building materials & garden equipment store sales fell 0.6% (+4.5% y/y) after a 0.2% August increase, and sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales slid 0.5% (+9.6% y/y) after a 1.0% August rise; both decreased for the second time in three months. General merchandise store sales slipped 0.1% (+4.2% y/y) in September, the first m/m easing since April, after a 0.8% gain in August; within this category, department store sales recovered 1.6% (6.4% y/y), the largest m/m gain since March, following a 0.6% August decline. Meanwhile, clothing & accessory store sales were virtually unchanged m/m (+5.0% y/y) after rises of 0.6% in August and 1.3% in July.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales rose 0.7% (-1.2% y/y) in September, the fourth m/m rise in five months, after a 1.2% increase in August. Food & beverage store sales climbed 0.4% (0.9% y/y) after a 0.2% August gain and declines of 0.2% in July and June.

Consumers appeared to dine out more frequently in September despite still-elevated inflation (September CPI +0.6% m/m, +3.7% y/y; core CPI +0.3% m/m, +2.6% y/y). Restaurant & drinking place sales gained 1.1% (7.0% y/y) in September, the eighth straight m/m rise, after an upwardly revised 1.4% increase in August.

Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Total retail sales +0.8% (+6.3% y/y) in Sept.; seventh m/m increase in eight mths.
- Ex-auto sales +0.9% (+7.2% y/y), second straight m/m rise; auto sales +0.2% (+2.5% y/y), fourth gain in five mths.
- Ex-gas sales +0.2% (+4.5% y/y) and ex-auto & gas sales +0.2% (+5.0% y/y); both up m/m from Feb. through Sept. except July.
- Retail control group +0.1% (+4.7% y/y), seventh m/m rise in eight mths., capping a firm Q3 ’26 for underlying consumer demand.
- Gains m/m: gasoline stations (+6.4%), department stores (+1.6%), furniture stores (+1.3%), food svcs. (+1.1%).
- Declines m/m: misc. stores (-3.0%), building materials & garden equipt. (-0.6%), sporting goods (-0.5%), general merch. (-0.1%).

U.S. Retail Sales Rise in September, Above Forecasts

Michael J. Moran

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The consumer price index for September (published yesterday) made for unpleasant reading (up 0.6% overall and 0.3% excluding food and energy), but the producer price index was downright nasty. The headline index rose 1.3%, a far cry from the expectation of 0.5%, and prices excluding food and energy rose 0.7% (versus an expectation of 0.3%). The latest changes left the year-over-year increase in the headline measure at 6.3% and the index excluding food and energy at 5.0%. Both measures posted their sharpest year-over-year changes since December 2022, when inflation was decelerating from the burst in 2021–22.

Analysts were expecting pressure on energy prices, but they probably got more than they bargained for, as this component jumped 10.8%. The surge exceeded the jump of 10.5% in March, when the initial effects of the war with Iran became evident. As in other recent months, changes in petroleum-based energy prices (gasoline, diesel, heating oil) accounted for most of the increase, but prices for natural gas liquids and residential electricity added to the mix with jumps of 14.6% and 1.4%, respectively.

Food prices provided a surprise with an increase of 1.2%. However, this change was not especially troubling, as most of the pressure was the result of food destined for export (4.3%). Consumer food prices also rose sharply in September (0.8%), but this area has been calm for some time, with the year-over-year change showing a decline of 0.9% even with the latest jump.

Producer prices excluding food and energy (0.7%) reflected pressure in both the goods and services sectors. Core goods prices rose 0.3% in September, a reading comfortably within the recent range, but that range has involved several high-side readings. The year-over-year increase of 5.1% was unsettling. This pace is a touch lower than the recent highs of 5.2% in May and June, but otherwise it is the fastest since February 2023, when inflation was decelerating.

The service component of the PPI is volatile, and thus interpretation can be difficult. Recent readings, though, involve noticeable pressure. The September change totaled 0.8%, a reading at the upper end of the recent range. The frequent high-side readings left a year-over-year increase of 4.9%, a touch below the recent high of 5.0% in April, but otherwise the highest since 5.2% in December 2022.

The CPI and the price index for personal consumption expenditures will most likely dominate the discussion of inflation at the Federal Reserve, but the PPI is not irrelevant. Recent results suggest that an inflation impulse is evident in the economy.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Results exceed expectations by wide margins.
- Yr/Yr percent changes were the sharpest since December 2022.

September PPI: High-Side Readings on Food and Energy; Uncomfortable increase in Core

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up 1,000 to 199,000 in the week ending October 10, from 198,000 in the week ending October 3, revised from 197,000. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 200,000 claims to have been filed. The four-week moving average was 198,500 in the October 10 week, up from 198,250 in the October 3 week, revised from 198,000.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—fell by 4,000 to 1.710 million in the week ending October 3, from 1.714 million in the week of September 26, revised down from 1.716 million. The four-week moving average was 1.709 million in the October 3 week versus 1.711 million in the prior week. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.1% in the week of October 3.

In the week ending September 26, no state had an insured unemployment rate above 2.00%; the highest was in New Jersey (1.99%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.21%), Louisiana (0.29%), Florida (0.32%), Alabama (0.33%), North Carolina and North Dakota (both 0.35%), Arkansas (0.38%), Kentucky (0.41%), Iowa and Tennessee (both 0.42%), Kansas (0.43%), Nebraska (0.45%), Idaho and Wyoming (both 0.46%), Georgia and New Hampshire (both 0.48%), and Virginia (0.49%). Among other notable states, the rate was 0.96% in Texas, 1.20% in Pennsylvania, 1.32% in Illinois, 1.42% in New York, and 1.73% in California. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims rose by 1,000 to 199,000 in the week of October 10.
- Continuing claims fell by 4,000 to 1.710 million in the week ending October 3.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.1% in the week of October 3.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Rose in the Week of October 10

Robert Brusca

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Industrial and manufacturing output in the European Monetary Union remains under intense downward pressure. The chart that plots the individual sectors highlights year-over-year growth rates. It shows that consumer goods output continues to contract at a pace that is not healthy. Intermediate goods output has basically been at a point of stasis for the last year. Capital goods output continues to be the only robust part of the industrial economy; it shows persistent increases in output since the first quarter of 2025.

**Monthly output**
The monthly changes showed declines in overall industrial production of 0.5% in August. The decline in manufacturing was 0.4% in August; by sector, consumer goods output declined by 2.4% month-to-month, intermediate goods output declined by 0.8%, while capital goods increased 0.4%. Within the consumer sector, consumer durables had a small output increase of 0.2%, with nondurables output falling by 0.8% month-to-month.

**Sequential growth**
The sequential growth rates delineate growth over 12 months, six months, and three months, showing some weakness over each of those spans, with output falling by 1.2% over 12 months, being flat over six months, and declining at a 3.6% annual rate over three months. Manufacturing shows a similar trend, with a decline of 1.6% over 12 months, a decline at a 0.2% annual rate over six months, and a decline at a 4% annual rate over three months.

**By sector**: The sequential growth rates show declines in consumer output over 12 months, six months, and three months, with weaker growth over three months than over 12 months. For the subsector, consumer nondurables follow the same pattern and trend; so, do intermediate goods. Capital goods are a departure. They show a 1.9% increase over 12 months, a 1.6% annualized increase over six months, and a 2.6% annual rate decline over three months. Next, the only sector showing persisting increases is durable goods within the consumer sector. It shows output up 0.2% over 12 months, rising at a 2.4% annual rate over six months, and accelerating to a 5.3% annual rate over three months. The trends that we see in the headline are echoed in most of the components, which tend to show output declines over 12 months, some moderation over six months, and then an acceleration of weakness over three months. Capital goods also break that pattern by showing persisting deceleration in output growth trends from 12 months to six months to three months.

**Quarter-to-date output**: QTD output is falling in all sectors except for consumer durables. The headline shows a 2.7% annual rate decline; manufacturing is at a 3.5% annual rate drop. There is still one month’s worth of data needed to fill out the third quarter.

**Annual growth rate ranking**: Growth rates generally are weak. We rank the growth rates on a 20-year timeline back to 2006. The headline series—total industrial production excluding construction and manufacturing—have rankings for year-over-year output growth in their 28th and 25th percentiles, respectively. Consumer goods output for the entire sector has been weaker only 1.7% of the time on this timeline, with most of that weakness due to consumer nondurables output, which has been weaker only 1.3% of the time. Consumer durable goods output is above its median with a 55.5 percentile standing. Capital goods are the only other sector above the 50th percentile, with a 51.7 percentile standing. Intermediate goods come close, with a 48.3 percentile standing, annual growth that is barely below its historic median on this timeline.

**Member country trends**
The table also presents results for 13 European monetary union member countries and for the United Kingdom and Sweden, as fellow European economies. EMU members show an unweighted average decline across this group of countries of 0.5% for output in August, a weakening from a 0.2% median increase in July and weaker than a 0.1% median gain in June. These countries have median declines of 0.1% over 12 months, 1.5% over six months, and 5.6% over three months. Quarter-to-date, the unweighted average for the group is a 7.5% decline for manufacturing output. Also, the average rank standing for EMU manufacturing growth on the timeline from 2006, as an unweighted average, has a 44.5 percentile standing, below its historic median, which puts it below median by about 6 percentage points. The only countries above their respective medians for year-over-year growth on that timeline are the Netherlands with a 97.5 percentile standing, Greece with an 86.1 percentile standing, Malta with a 69.3 percentile standing, and Spain, whose result is right on top of its median with a 50th percentile standing. There are additional five countries with percentile standings in their 40th percentile, including Finland, Italy, France, Germany, and Austria.

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**Summing up**
On balance, this is a weak report with output on weakening trends in most countries. In August, output is accelerating in only 38.5% of the countries. Compared to one year ago, output is accelerating at 61.5% of the member countries. Over six months compared to 12 months, there is acceleration in only 15.4% of the countries. Over three months compared to six months, there is acceleration in 23.1% of these reporting countries. Inflation, for the most part, remains high. The ECB appears to be still raising interest rates, and energy prices remain high amid the Middle East war. It shows no signs of increased predictability, let alone any hints of good news.

Europe

EMU IP Weakness Intensifies

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