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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

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[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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The **Industrial Materials Price Index** from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 1.6% (0.4% y/y) during the last four-week period after rising 2.3% in the prior four weeks.

Prices in the **Metals** group jumped 2.9% (-3.4% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Price strength was broad-based. Aluminum prices rose 4.3% in four weeks (5.1% y/y) while lead prices also gained 4.3% (-5.9% y/y). Since mid-June, tin prices increased 3.0% (-2.7% y/y) while the cost a zinc rose 2.9% (-7.2% y/y). Steel scrap costs gained 2.4% (-11.1% y/y) over four weeks while copper scrap prices rose 0.9% (1.4% y/y).

**Crude Oil & Benzene** group prices moved 1.9% higher (-14.3% y/y) in the latest four week period. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 2.2% to $67.65 per barrel but remained 17.8% lower y/y. It fell to a low of $58.50 per barrel in the second week of May. The cost of the petrol-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, strengthened 5.6% (-34.2% y/y). Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index rose 1.5% (1.6% y/y) during the last four weeks.

**Miscellaneous** group prices increased 1.3% (10.6% y/y) in the latest four week period. The price of tallow (used in the soap industry) rose 7.8% (15.7% y/y) in four weeks. Framing lumber prices gained 5.4% (37.2% y/y) but natural rubber prices fell 2.9% (+19.0% y/y) in four weeks.

Prices in the **Textile** group edged 0.3% higher (1.9% y/y) during the last four weeks. Cotton prices rose 1.7% in that same period and 5.5% y/y. Burlap costs improved 0.7% in four weeks and 10.0% y/y.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Prices increase broadly after earlier declines.
- Metals price strength is accompanied by higher oil costs.
- Lumber prices surge but natural rubber prices decline.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen in Latest Four Weeks

Robert Brusca

Japan's industrial production continues to be weak with output falling by 0.2% in May after falling by 1% in April and coming up lame - at flat - in March. Sequential growth rates are not telling an upbeat story either, with 12-month industrial production lower by 0.8%; over six months the decline is only 0.2% at an annual rate, but then over three months the annual rate of decline is 4.6%.

Manufacturing shows similar weakness to the trend for overall industry, but the three-month growth rate is at -5.7% at an annual rate.

Two key industries for Japan, textiles and transportation, show up with the declines over all three horizons. And for transportation, the decline over the last three months is 11.1% at an annual rate.

Manufacturing industries in Japan show a great deal of variation with consumer goods output on a more or less accelerating path, growing 3.2% over 12 months and then up to a 12% annual rate over three months. Intermediate goods output is in a significant decelerating phase, falling 3% over 12 months, falling at a 1.2% annual rate over six months and then stepping up the pace of decline to -6.6% at an annual rate over three months. Investment goods show a good deal more life, falling only 0.1% over 12 months, then growing at a 3.9% annual rate over six months and surging at a very vibrant 8.3% annual rate over three months.

Mining activity in Japan is recovering, showing a 6.8% annual rate decline over 12 months, a 5% annual rate decline over six months, and an 11% annual rate increase over three months.

Utilities output from gas and electric utilities shows a decline of 1% over 12 months, growth of 2.3% over six months. and then output declined at a 19.2% annual rate over the last three months.

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I plot Japan's output in terms of output levels rather than in terms of growth rates because growth rates are so specific to comparison with the particular point in time. I think looking at the levels of industrial production for Japan clarifies its weakness a lot more because you can see that output levels have generally been declining for quite a long time without a significant improvement; that includes some recent weakening from what we're already relatively weak levels of output.

In addition to these trend issues, is the fact that the Bank of Japan continues to fight inflation, domestically. Japan also is dealing with its two main trade partners and there are special issues. China, its largest trade partner, has been struggling trying to reinstate growth in an economy that has been hamstrung by an overbuilt property market and other challenges. Japan’s second biggest trading partner, the United States, continues to log growth, but tariffs are being threatened and tariffs that are relatively high. Japan is having a hard time coming to terms with U.S. demands. Japan has always been willing to play ball with the U.S. on tariff issues and in terms of setting up things like orderly marketing agreements to limit access to the U.S. market while still preserving access of some sort. And while we don't know how the Trump tariff negotiations will end (and that is partly by his design), at the moment Japan seems to be facing the potential for some relatively large tariff barriers, something that has thrown a pall across the domestic economy.

In the past, the U.S. has used exchange rate movements and threats in order to try to curtail competitive threats from Japan. Those tactics largely failed because Japanese firms held on firmly to their market share and were willing to increase efficiency and productivity in various ways including moving production out of Japan to offshore facilities where their competitiveness was even further enhanced. The U.S. program to push the yen up which resulted in the yen breaking the value of 100 and hitting an exchange rate at its peak of around 85 to the dollar did not redress the problems that the U.S. had with its trade deficit and in fact it may have deepened those problems by spreading Japanese manufacturing know how to Pacific Rim countries with lower production costs.

However, Japan has outsourced a lot, and it clearly is looking to maintain the domestic production that it still has. It's unclear how the recent Trump threats and tariffs are going to play out, especially at the time that the Pacific Rim is in play for geopolitical reasons and the U.S. needs a strong ally in the Pacific Rim. This is going to be an important relationship to watch.

Japan

Japan’s IP Is Still Waffling and Weak

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The U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget surplus of $27.0 billion during June, which compared to a deficit of $71.0 billion twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $43.5 deficit. During the first nine months of the current fiscal year, the government ran a budget deficit of $1.337 trillion versus a deficit of $1.273 trillion in the first nine months of FY’24.

Overall revenues in the first nine months of FY’25 increased 6.8% y/y compared to a 10.0% y/y rise in the first nine months of last year. Customs duties surged 94.3% y/y in the first nine months of FY’25 after an 8.0% y/y decline last fiscal year. Individual income tax receipts rose 9.2% y/y compared to last year’s 11.3% y/y gain. The level of corporate tax receipts fell 6.7% y/y so far this year after a 28.4% y/y rise in the first nine months of FY’24. Social insurance revenues increased 3.1% y/y after a 5.2% y/y rise in the first nine months of FY’24, while excise taxes rose 17.3% y/y so far in FY’25 compared to an 8.1% gain in the first nine months of last fiscal year.

Federal government outlays grew 6.3% y/y so far in FY’25 versus a 4.6% y/y rise in the first nine months of FY’24. Defense spending rose 6.0% y/y after a 5.5% y/y rise in the first nine months of last fiscal year. Social Security outlays rose 8.4% y/y in the first nine months of FY’25 versus an 8.2% increase last fiscal year. Interest payments rose 9.7% y/y so far in FY’25 after a 38.1% rise in the first nine months of last fiscal year. Health program spending rose 6.7% y/y after falling 0.5% in the first nine months of FY’24 while Medicare payments surged 15.0% y/y versus a 1.0% y/y decline last year. Income security outlays rose 9.2% y/y in the first nine months of this year compared to an 18.5% y/y decline last year.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Federal receipts strengthen while outlays decline.
- Customs duties increase but interest payments slow.
- Year-to-date deficit increases.

U.S. Federal Government Posts Budget Surplus in June

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The National Association of Realtors' Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index (HAI) declined 3.8% (+5.3% y/y) during May to 97.2 after falling an unrevised 2.3% in April to 101.0, following moderate gains in each of the prior four months. The recent high was 104.9 in September of last year. The level of home affordability remained 8.1% higher than its low of 89.9 in October 2023. The latest level was 45.8% below the high of 179.2 in April 2020.

The decline in affordability in May occurred as the median price of an existing single-family home rose 2.3% (1.3% y/y) to $427,800, and mortgage rates rose to 6.90% from 6.81% in April. The price compared to the record $432,900 in June 2024. The rise in mortgage rates left them above their a low of 6.26% in September of last year, though below a 7.70% high in October of 2023. They remained well above a December 2020 low of 2.73%. In May, the principal & interest payments rose 3.3% (-1.1% y/y) to $2,254 per month, well above the most recent low of $984 in February 2020. Monthly mortgage payments averaged a higher 25.7% of income during May, up from a low of 14.0% of income in April 2020.

The rise in housing costs in May was accompanied by a deterioration in median family income. It fell 0.6% (+4.1% y/y) to $105,204 after rising 1.0% in April. Qualifying income rose 3.3% (-1.1% y/y) to $108,192 after rising 3.5% in April.

Housing affordability declined m/m across the country in May. The index fell 5.7% (+3.1% y/y) to 122.7 in the Midwest, though it remains the most affordable region of the country. In the South, the index declined 2.5% (+7.5% y/y) to 103.0 and the affordability index in the Northeast declined 6.4% (-1.3% y/y) to 86.1. In the West, where homes are the least affordable, the index fell 2.4% (+5.6% y/y) to 69.3 in May.

The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) equals 100 when a median-income borrower qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home. The HAI had exceeded 100 in each month since July 1990 and reached its all-time high of 213.3 in January 2013.

Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver’s **REALTOR** database. Median home sales prices are also available in **USECON**. Higher frequency interest rate data are found in **SURVEYS**, **WEEKLY**, and **DAILY**.

**Demystifying the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet** from Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20250710a.htm).

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- Home prices & mortgage rates continue to rise.
- Median income declines.
- Affordability falls across country.

U.S. Housing Affordability Weakens in May

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French inflation jumped in June, rising by 0.4% in the month on the HICP metric, the same as the monthly rise for France’s CPI and its CPI excluding energy. Not surprisingly the monthly diffusion reading tracks the breadth of inflation rise monthly to 72.7% in June affirming that the breadth of the gain in monthly inflation was substantial. Breadth is sharply higher in June after looking very weak at 18.2% in May. But the month of May followed a broad acceleration with breadth at 90.9% in April. Monthly breadth reading can be quite unstable. Diffusion values above 50% revel inflation acceleration period a period in which inflation acceleration is more common than deceleration.

However, breadth over the sequential periods 3-months, 6-months and 12-months shows inflation acceleration is creeping up as the breadth reading advances on the timeline from 36.4% over 12 months, to 54.5% over 6 months, and to 63.6% over 3 months.

France has been an inflation success story and a growth failure story. The HICP headline inflation last higher than 2% in August 2024 and the domestic CPI excluding energy was over 2% for its 12-month gain in March of 2024. And while the HICP has signs of ongoing slowing, the domestic CPI excluding energy has been relatively stable since September 2024. The CPI excluding energy inflation is running at a weak and well contained pace of 1.6% over 12 months and the weakening HICP undoubtedly has benefited from the ongoing drop in energy prices where Brent costs in euro-terms show an 18.5% drop over 12 months.

The headline HICP for France shows a mixed trend from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months. The domestic CPI is closer to showing steady acceleration. The CPI excluding energy shows persistent acceleration. But the domestic CPI gauge also shows inflation at a pace of just 2.2% over 6 months and 2.6% over 3 months compared to a low 12-month pace of 1.6%. The acceleration in French inflation is mild and the pace of inflation is really controlled.

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France does not look like a percolating pot of inflation, but it may be migrating more to a 2% mode. Much of the improved inflation performance has been on the back of weak economic conditions. France has logged S&P composite PMI readings below 50%, indicating private sector contraction in the economy, since May 2023.

France is the weakest of the big four EMU economies on the PMI metric and on GDP especially since early 2023. Italy, and Spain have PMI readings over 50% going back five-months; for Spain reading is over 50% back to the end of 2023. Germany has posted five composite PMI readings above 50 over the last six months. Even the U.K. that has been struggling has PMI readings above 50% back to 2023 with just one exception.

The EU Commission indexes have Germany as the weakens EMU economy among the Big Four since late 2023; however, that survey has France worsening sharply in weakening in the current month and showing a weaker reading than German in June.

Now that growth in Europe is set to take root, we will see where fundamental inflation progress is able to persist. The Trump tariff threats are still out here and the deadline for imposition is approaching. Trump seems willing to put relatively large tariffs in place. Trump tariffs are going to be a big factor in how all of this will shake out. And a good part of that is going to be how much other countries want to retaliate. The U.S. is simply a huge source of demand for the global economy. If the U.S. current account deficit were a county it would be the 13th largest country in the world; if its imports were a county, they would be the fifth or sixth largest country in the world. The U.S. is a massive source of global demand. And the international community has leaned on the U.S. to provide demand and export markets and jobs for them. But the U.S. now finds itself with massive current account deficit- one that has existed for 33 years in a row. And the U.S. also faces large fiscal deficits. It is in a position where the goose needs to attend its own diet if it is to continue to produce golden eggs. So, the evolution of U.S. tariffs, global growth, and future inflation, all are intertwined. The future remains obscure.

France

French Inflation Moves Up But Stays Low

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Latest Releases

Economy in Brief

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen in Latest Four Weeks

Japan’s IP Is Still Waffling and Weak

U.S. Federal Government Posts Budget Surplus in June

U.S. Housing Affordability Weakens in May

French Inflation Moves Up But Stays Low