U.S. Retail Sales Post Limited Rise in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Auto sales decline; rise in nonauto sales is restrained.
- Sales ease in retail control group.
- Clothing & nonstore sales decline.
Total retail sales increased 0.2% (4.3% y/y) in September following an unrevised 0.6% August rise and a 0.6% July improvement, revised from a 1.0% strengthening. The gain compared to a 0.4% increase expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales gains were spotty last month. Sales excluding autos increased 0.3% (4.1% y/y) in September after rising 0.6% in August, revised from 0.7% after gaining an unrevised 0.4% in July. A 0.4% gain had been expected.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline and food services, dipped 0.1% (+4.1% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in August, revised from 0.7% after an unrevised 0.5% July gain. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in the NIPA accounts.
Motor vehicle & parts dealer sales declined 0.3% (+5.1% y/y) during September after rising 0.6% in August and improving 1.6% during July. This compares to unchanged unit sales of motor vehicles last month which followed a 0.6% August decline. Gasoline service station sales rose 2.0% (3.1% y/y) in September after rising 0.4% in August. Gasoline prices rose fell 0.7% (-1.7% y/y) during September after rising 0.8% in August. Sales of building materials & garden equipment edged 0.2% higher (-2.4% y/y) after rising 0.3% in August.
Elsewhere, sales were lackluster in September. Nonstore retail sales declined 0.7% (+6.0% y/y) after increasing 1.6% in August. Clothing store sales were off 0.7% (+6.7% y/y) following a 1.0% increase. Sporting goods & hobby shop sales declined 2.5% (-0.2% y/y) after strengthening 1.0%. Sales at electronics & appliance stores weakened 0.5% (+6.3% y/y) after easing 0.3% in August. General merchandise store sales improved 0.1% (1.6% y/y) as they did in July, while department store sales weakened 0.7% (-3.3% y/y) after falling 0.9%. Furniture & home furnishings store sales rose 0.6% (1.2% y/y) in September following a 2.0% decline. Miscellaneous store sales rose 2.9% (8.2% y/y) and reversed a 2.9% decline in August.
In the nondiscretionary sales sector, food & beverage store sales rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y) during September following a 0.6% August rise. Health & personal care store sales strengthened 1.1% (5.6% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in August.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales rose 0.7% (6.7% y/y) in September after rising 1.0% in August.
Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economic Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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