FOMC Lowers Fed Funds Rate Target as Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Rate target lowered by quarter point for third time this year.
- The decision was mixed amongst FOMC voters.
At today’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the target range for the Fed funds rate was reduced to 3.50%-to-3.75% from 3.75%-to-4.00%. The current range compares to a high of 5.25%-to-5.50% in mid-September 2024. Today’s target range matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The following statement was released after today’s meeting: “Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.
The Fed will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis.”
At this meeting, new economic projections were offered by FOMC members.
Real GDP growth Q4/Q4 in 2026 was raised to 2.3% from 1.8%; was raised to 2.0% from 1.9% in 2027; and was raised to 1.9% from 1.8% in 2028.
Unemployment rate in Q4 2026 was unchanged at 4.4%; was lowered to 4.2% from 4.3% in Q4 2027; and left unchanged at 4.2% in Q4 2028.
PCE inflation Q4/Q4 in 2026 was lowered to 2.4% from 2.6%; left unchanged at 2.1% in 2027; and left unchanged at 2.0% in 2028.
Core PCE inflation Q4/Q4 in 2026 was lowered to 2.5% from 2.6%; left unchanged at 2.1% in 2027; and left unchanged at 2.0% in 2028.
U.S. economic figures can be found in Haver’s USECON database & interest rate data are in the WEEKLY & DAILY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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