U.S. JOLTS—Openings Rise Slightly; Hiring Declines in October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Minimal rise in job openings follows sharp September increase.
- Sizable hiring decline reverses earlier increase.
- Separations fall sharply as quits plunge and layoffs rise.
Job openings edged up 0.2% (0.7% y/y) to 7.670 million in October, after surging to 7.658 million in September, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The job openings rate held steady at 4.6%. It remained below its record of 7.4% reached in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.
Private sector openings rose 0.3% (2.7% y/y) to 6.894 million in October, after surging 6.4% in September. The private openings rate held steady at 4.8%. Job openings in construction fell 7.8% (-14.5% y/y), after rising 22.9%, while manufacturing openings rose 6.5% (-9.9% y/y) following a 5.9% shortfall. Professional & business services openings fell 7.6% (+2.2% y/y), after surging 21.6% in September. Leisure/hospitality openings declined 1.9% (-0.6% y/y) after strong increases in the prior two months. Openings in private education & healthcare rose 3.0% (-3.0% y/y), after easing 0.7% in September. Financial sector openings plummeted 20.0% (-22.0% y/y), after increasing 15.1% in September. Government openings fell 1.5% (-13.9% y/y) in October, after rising 2.2% in September.
Private sector hiring declined 4.5% (-3.8% y/y) to 4.796 million in October, after a 4.5% September Increase. This was the fifth shortfall in six months and nearly the lowest reading in over a year. The total hiring rate fell to 3.2%, equaling its lowest reading since April 2020. Construction jobs declined 11 .8% (-3.1% y/y), following a 0.6% rise while manufacturing employment declined 4.4% both m/m and y/y, after rising 4.9%. Hiring in trade, transportation & utilities rose 1.5% (-8.9% y/y), after a 3.2% increase. Financial services hiring fell 5.5% (+11.9% y/y), after rising 3.3%. Professional & business services declined 7.7% (-1.8% y/y), after a 1.5% rise. Private educational & health services employment declined 10.5% (-4.4% y/y), after a 17.5% strengthening. Government jobs rose 2.0% (-2.5% y/y), after strengthening 7.8% in September.
Total separations fell 4.1% (-4.4% y/y) to 5.050 million in October, after a 3.0% September rise. The total separations rate slipped to 3.2%. Private separations fell 3.9% (-5.4% y/y) to 4.708 million, while government sector separations weakened 6.3% (+10.3% y/y). Total quits declined 6.0% (-8.6% y/y), the eighth monthly drop this year. Private sector quits fell 5.2% (-9.1% y/y), the fourth monthly decline in the past five months. Layoffs and discharges rose 4.1% (3.7% y/y) to 1.854 million in October, after a 3.2% September rise. Private sector layoffs rose 3.1% (2.9% y/y) in October.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s USECON database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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