Global| Oct 23 2008European Orders Head Sharply Lower In August
Summary
Industrial orders in the e-zone fell by a relatively sharp 1.2% in August. Still there has been enough strength recently for the 3-mo growth rate of e-Zone orders to stand at a positive 5.3%. Over six months and 12-months orders are [...]
Industrial orders in the e-zone fell by a relatively sharp
1.2% in August. Still there has been enough strength recently for the
3-mo growth rate of e-Zone orders to stand at a positive 5.3%. Over six
months and 12-months orders are still declining. And in the quarter-to
date orders are falling as well at a sharp -6% pace. Order weakness
continues to be led by orders from abroad (see table). Domestic orders
are not so much stronger (see chart) as they are more volatile.
The selected country level reports in the table shows weakness
of a significant magnitude across the group albeit there are timing
differences and volatility in orders within this group. But in
Q3-to-date only Italy shows an order rise. The UK shows an annual rate
of decline at a -40% rate. Italy is posting a gain in the quarter at
nearly a 10% pace. Germany and France are showing quarter-to-date order
drops on the order of 6% to 7%.
| E-zone and UK Industrial Orders & Sales Trends | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | % m/m | Aug 08 |
Aug 08 |
Aug 08 |
Aug 07 |
Aug 06 |
Qtr-2 Date |
||
| Ezone Detail | Aug 08 |
Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
3-Mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | 12-mo | 12-mo | Saar |
| MFG Sales | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 4.5% |
| Consumer | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 2.9% |
| Capital | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% |
| Intermediate | -0.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 11.8% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% |
| MFG Orders | |||||||||
| Total Orders | -1.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 5.3% | -5.1% | -1.5% | 5.1% | 11.6% | -1.5% |
| E-13 Domestic MFG orders | -0.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 11.8% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 7.6% | 2.5% |
| E-13 Foreign MFG orders | -2.1% | 1.9% | -0.3% | -2.4% | -11.9% | -4.0% | 7.1% | 16.4% | -5.5% |
| Countries: | Aug 08 |
Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
3-Mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | 12-mo | 12-mo | Qtr-2 Date |
| Germany: | 3.3% | -0.7% | -2.5% | -0.3% | -6.4% | 0.1% | 5.5% | 17.0% | -6.0% |
| France: | -7.2% | 4.3% | 1.4% | -6.9% | -18.5% | -7.8% | 8.6% | -5.3% | -7.4% |
| Italy | -0.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 13.2% | -1.4% | 1.1% | -0.6% | 18.2% | 9.8% |
| UK(EU) | -15.2% | 2.4% | -5.0% | -53.6% | -37.2% | -16.4% | 4.2% | -3.3% | -40.7% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
