Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics

Economy in Brief

  • General business activity slips; expectations deteriorate.
  • Shipments & hours-worked drop, but employment & production improve.
  • Pricing & wage pressures diminish.

More Commentaries

    • Home sales rise for third straight month.
    • Sales changes remain mixed regionally.
    • Median sales price gain fails to recoup earlier decline.
    • Composite Index stays at 0 in March, led by a drop in new orders to -13.
    • Employment rises to 18, its highest level since May ’22; production rebounds to 3 after being in negative territory for five straight months.
    • Price indexes show mixed results, with a rise to a six-month high in prices paid for raw materials but a slight decline in prices received for finished goods.
    • Expectations for future activity improve slightly.
    • Q4 deficit was smallest in six quarters.
    • Goods deficit widened in Q4 as both exports and imports fell.
    • Services surplus widened and deficit on secondary income narrowed in Q4.
    • Reading is below zero for fourth month in last five.
    • All four components are negative.
    • Recent trend roughly stabilizes.
    • Initial claims edge downward 1,000, remain just under 200,000.
    • Insured unemployment rate steady at 1.2%, holding in historically low range.
    • Highest state rates at 2.7%, lowest at 0.3%-0.4%.
  • Consumer confidence in Denmark in March improved slightly, moving up to -23.1 from -25.1 in February after logging a -26.1 in January. These improvements are not strong, but they are movements toward ‘better’ rather than toward ‘worse.’ The absolute reading is extremely weak with the ranking of 2.7% on data since 1995. That means that since 1995 readings have been this weak or weaker only 2.7% of the time.

    The past year… The data assessing conditions over the last 12 months are generally quite weak; the financial situation for the last 12 months has a 0.6 percentile standing. The general economy reading for the last 12 months has a 3.3 percentile standing. The assessment of consumer prices over the last 12 months, of course, has a high 97-percentile standing telling us that inflation had been higher historically only about 3% of the time. That's not surprising and it's not good news. That summary sets the stage for the responses for this month.

    Looking ahead The look-ahead responses from March show the financial situation for the next 12 months slightly stronger at a net 0.4 reading, up from -0.3 in February, but still with only a 3.6 percentile standing. The outlook for the general economy improved to -0.7 in March from a -6.4 reading in February, logged at a 38.8 percentile standing much better than the other standings noted to date; however, it is substantially below the 50% break even mark. Consumer prices over the next 12 months have a -8.5 assessment for March below the -8 assessment for February; the standing for this metric is the 27th percentile which is certainly a lot weaker than the 97th percentile standing for the previous twelve months. There is some expectation that inflation is going to be coming down; it is hard to tell from this whether that sort of decline is sufficient or not. The unemployment trend expected for the next 12 months has a lower net 18.6 reading in March, down from 28.4 in February (which had a small uptick compared to January). The standing still has an 87-percentile mark which is relatively high.

    The environment Assessments of the environment in March change very little from February. All responses have rankings below historic midpoints (below 50%). The favorability of the time to purchase improved slightly to -39.6 in March from -41.8 in February; the favorability the time to purchase over the next 12 months improved to -15.5 from -17.9. The favorability of the time to save ticked ever so slightly higher to 64.4 from 64.3; the March favorability of the time to save over the next 12 months eroded to 22 from 23.8 logging a lower 10-percentile standing. The general financial situation of households is unchanged at 19.8, a 2.4 percentile standing. The environment is weak.

    • The FOMC raised the targeted Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00%.
    • Today’s decision was endorsed by each member of the FOMC.
    • Refinancing & purchase loans both rise.
    • Interest rates decline again.