Robert Brusca

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026h.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Germany&#8217;s GFK survey rose in October. It was a month-to-month
rise of 0.4 for the third month in a row. The economic index rose by
5.2 points its smallest rise since May but on the heels of a 10.9 point
spurt in September. Income expectations fell by 3.1 points, the first
drop in five months but after two large gains. The propensity to buy
dropped back by 10.4 points a huge drop and the largest since a drop of
15.7 in May 2008. 

Still the Climate index at +4.2 is above its average of 3.3.
All of these components are above their average values since 2002. The
&#8216;income&#8217; and &#8216;propensity to buy&#8217; percentiles are stronger for the count
percentiles than for the range percentiles; the standing among past
observations is stronger than their range standing between the highs
and lows. This means that while the current readings are still well off
peak they are in the upper part of the distribution of readings and in
the upper region of normal. 

The GFK index shows that confidence is still improving in
Germany. Germans are relatively more worried about the economy in
generally than they are impacted by expectations for income or buying
power problems. Still the fact of the matter is that German consumption
has not been very strong. And Germany&#8217;s Chancellor is out warning that
in 2011 there will be another crisis and that unemployment will rise
from current levels. I guess that Obama&#8217;s pessimistic approach to
assessing the economy is spreading abroad.

 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" colspan="5">
 Germany Consumer Climate Survey GFK</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td> Climate</td>
<td colspan="2"> Expectations</td>
<td> Propensity to</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td> Economic</td>
<td>Income</td>
<td>Buy</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Oct-09</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>8.7</td>
<td>12.9</td>
<td>26.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Sep-09</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>16.0</td>
<td>36.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Aug-09</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>-7.5</td>
<td>8.8</td>
<td>31.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Jul-09</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>-14.0</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>25.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Jun-09</td>
<td>2.7</td>
<td>-22.6</td>
<td>-3.3</td>
<td>14.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="5">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Average</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-3.8</td>
<td>-9.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Max</td>
<td>9.1</td>
<td>69.5</td>
<td>33.6</td>
<td>64.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Min</td>
<td>-3.5</td>
<td>-32.9</td>
<td>-24.5</td>
<td>-55.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">% range</td>
<td>61.1%</td>
<td>40.6%</td>
<td>64.4%</td>
<td>68.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Count%</td>
<td>59.6%</td>
<td>66.0%</td>
<td>92.6%</td>
<td>87.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">% range is
current reading as a
percentile of Hi/Low range</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">Count % is
current reading ranked as
a %-tile among all readings</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">GFK survey
dates from January 2002</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Germany’s GFK survey rose in October. It was a month-to-month rise of 0.4 for the third month in a row. The economic index rose by 5.2 points its smallest rise since May but on the heels of a 10.9 point spurt in September. Income [...]

Germany’s Consumer Climate Improves

Tom Moeller

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The National Association For Business Economics (NABE)
indicated in its latest Industry Survey that U.S. economic conditions
showed broad-based improvement during the last three months. That gain
was paced by improvement in unit demand and profit margins.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The net percentage of firms reporting higher demand rose to
23.4% which was the highest level in over one year. The improvement
came as 44.2% of firms indicated higher demand but only 20.8% showed
demand falling during 3Q. That was down from nearly half reporting
lower demand at the end of last year. Overall economic growth
through the end of next year is expected to average 3%.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Higher net-profit margins were indicated by firms for the
first time since the fourth quarter of 2007. Thirty-six percent of
firms indicated higher margins, up from 10% during 4Q08, while a
reduced 27% reported lower margins.
While still negative, net-employment improved materially as
12% of firms reported higher employment, double the low of last
quarter, and a much-reduced 31% reported lower hiring.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026g.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
With the improvement in economic conditions, NABE indicated
that pricing power improved. The net-reading of 12% was the highest
level in one year as 23% reported higher prices and a reduced 11%
reported lower prices. Rising capital spending was indicated by firms
for the first time in one year as 26% showed higher spending while a
reduced 22% reported lower spending. 
 

The NABE Industry Survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS
database. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Nat'l
Assn. For Business Economics 3Q Industry Survey (Net Rising Index, %)</th>
<th scope="col">3Q09</th>
<th scope="col">2Q09</th>
<th scope="col">1Q09</th>
<th scope="col">4Q08</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unit Demand</td>
<td>23.4</td>
<td>-5.0</td>
<td>-14.3</td>
<td>-27.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Profit Margins</td>
<td>8.7</td>
<td>-17.0</td>
<td>-30.4</td>
<td>-41.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment</td>
<td>-19.2</td>
<td>-30.0</td>
<td>-25.0</td>
<td>-29.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Charged</td>
<td>12.2</td>
<td>-12.9</td>
<td>-2.0</td>
<td>-9.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Capital Spending</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>-23.6</td>
<td>-15.8</td>
<td>-26.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The National Association For Business Economics (NABE) indicated in its latest Industry Survey that U.S. economic conditions showed broad-based improvement during the last three months. That gain was paced by improvement in unit [...]

National Association For Business Economics Indicates Demand, Profits and Employment Improved

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">The Chicago Federal Reserve
Bank indicated that while the U.S.
economy had improved, growth was still below the historic trend. For
September, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) slipped m/m
after having improved sharply from the January low. The reading of
-0.90 was down from -0.56 during August yet both readings were up
sharply from the series' low of -4.13 reached this past January. Since
1970 there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the index
and the q/q change in real GDP but during the last ten years that
correlation has risen to 80%.
The three-month moving average which smoothes out
some of the volatility of the index improved to its highest level since
June of '08.
An index level at or below -0.70 typically has indicated
negative U.S. economic growth. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that
the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth of
roughly 3%. The complete CFNAI report is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_october2009.pdf">here</a>.
The Chicago Fed indicated that 32 of the series' individual
indicators made positive contributions to the September index while 53
made negative contributions. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85
indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the
following categories: production &amp; income, the labor market,
personal consumption &amp; housing, manufacturing &amp; trade
sales, and inventories &amp; orders.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
In a separate survey, the Chicago Fed indicated that its
Midwest manufacturing index slipped during August but remained near its
lowest since late-1993. Indicators for the steel, machinery and
resource sectors improved modestly, however, that was outweighed by
deterioration in the auto sector. The Chicago Federal Reserve figures
are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
International Perspective on the Crisis and Response is
the title of Friday's speech by Fed Vice-Chairman Donald L. Kohn and it
can be found here <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20091023a.htm">here</a>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">Chicago
Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">August '08</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>-0.90</td>
<td>-0.56</td>
<td>-1.82</td>
<td>-2.01</td>
<td>-1.77</td>
<td>-0.35</td>
<td>0.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">3-Month Moving Average</td>
<td>-1.09</td>
<td>-1.61</td>
<td>-2.15</td>
<td>-1.42</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank indicated that while the U.S. economy had improved, growth was still below the historic trend. For September, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) slipped m/m after having improved sharply [...]

Chicago Fed Index Dipped Last Month But Trend Level Still Rising

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">The Chicago Federal Reserve
Bank indicated that while the U.S.
economy had improved, growth was still below the historic trend. For
September, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) slipped m/m
after having improved sharply from the January low. The reading of
-0.90 was down from -0.56 during August yet both readings were up
sharply from the series' low of -4.13 reached this past January. Since
1970 there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the index
and the q/q change in real GDP but during the last ten years that
correlation has risen to 80%.
The three-month moving average which smoothes out
some of the volatility of the index improved to its highest level since
June of '08.
An index level at or below -0.70 typically has indicated
negative U.S. economic growth. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that
the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth of
roughly 3%. The complete CFNAI report is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_october2009.pdf">here</a>.
The Chicago Fed indicated that 32 of the series' individual
indicators made positive contributions to the September index while 53
made negative contributions. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85
indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the
following categories: production &amp; income, the labor market,
personal consumption &amp; housing, manufacturing &amp; trade
sales, and inventories &amp; orders.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
In a separate survey, the Chicago Fed indicated that its
Midwest manufacturing index slipped during August but remained near its
lowest since late-1993. Indicators for the steel, machinery and
resource sectors improved modestly, however, that was outweighed by
deterioration in the auto sector. The Chicago Federal Reserve figures
are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
International Perspective on the Crisis and Response is
the title of Friday's speech by Fed Vice-Chairman Donald L. Kohn and it
can be found here <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20091023a.htm">here</a>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">Chicago
Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">August '08</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>-0.90</td>
<td>-0.56</td>
<td>-1.82</td>
<td>-2.01</td>
<td>-1.77</td>
<td>-0.35</td>
<td>0.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">3-Month Moving Average</td>
<td>-1.09</td>
<td>-1.61</td>
<td>-2.15</td>
<td>-1.42</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

National Association For Business
Economics Indicates Demand, Profits and Employment Improved 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> October 26, 2009


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The National Association For Business Economics (NABE)
indicated in its latest Industry Survey that U.S. economic conditions
showed broad-based improvement during the last three months. That gain
was paced by improvement in unit demand and profit margins.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The net percentage of firms reporting higher demand rose to
23.4% which was the highest level in over one year. The improvement
came as 44.2% of firms indicated higher demand but only 20.8% showed
demand falling during 3Q. That was down from nearly half reporting
lower demand at the end of last year. Overall economic growth
through the end of next year is expected to average 3%.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Higher net-profit margins were indicated by firms for the
first time since the fourth quarter of 2007. Thirty-six percent of
firms indicated higher margins, up from 10% during 4Q08, while a
reduced 27% reported lower margins.
While still negative, net-employment improved materially as
12% of firms reported higher employment, double the low of last
quarter, and a much-reduced 31% reported lower hiring.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026g.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
With the improvement in economic conditions, NABE indicated
that pricing power improved. The net-reading of 12% was the highest
level in one year as 23% reported higher prices and a reduced 11%
reported lower prices. Rising capital spending was indicated by firms
for the first time in one year as 26% showed higher spending while a
reduced 22% reported lower spending. 
 

The NABE Industry Survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS
database. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Nat'l
Assn. For Business Economics 3Q Industry Survey (Net Rising Index, %)</th>
<th scope="col">3Q09</th>
<th scope="col">2Q09</th>
<th scope="col">1Q09</th>
<th scope="col">4Q08</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unit Demand</td>
<td>23.4</td>
<td>-5.0</td>
<td>-14.3</td>
<td>-27.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Profit Margins</td>
<td>8.7</td>
<td>-17.0</td>
<td>-30.4</td>
<td>-41.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment</td>
<td>-19.2</td>
<td>-30.0</td>
<td>-25.0</td>
<td>-29.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Charged</td>
<td>12.2</td>
<td>-12.9</td>
<td>-2.0</td>
<td>-9.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Capital Spending</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>-23.6</td>
<td>-15.8</td>
<td>-26.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Germany&#8217;s Consumer Climate
Improves 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> October
26, 2009


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026h.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Germany&#8217;s GFK survey rose in October. It was a month-to-month
rise of 0.4 for the third month in a row. The economic index rose by
5.2 points its smallest rise since May but on the heels of a 10.9 point
spurt in September. Income expectations fell by 3.1 points, the first
drop in five months but after two large gains. The propensity to buy
dropped back by 10.4 points a huge drop and the largest since a drop of
15.7 in May 2008. 

Still the Climate index at +4.2 is above its average of 3.3.
All of these components are above their average values since 2002. The
&#8216;income&#8217; and &#8216;propensity to buy&#8217; percentiles are stronger for the count
percentiles than for the range percentiles; the standing among past
observations is stronger than their range standing between the highs
and lows. This means that while the current readings are still well off
peak they are in the upper part of the distribution of readings and in
the upper region of normal. 

The GFK index shows that confidence is still improving in
Germany. Germans are relatively more worried about the economy in
generally than they are impacted by expectations for income or buying
power problems. Still the fact of the matter is that German consumption
has not been very strong. And Germany&#8217;s Chancellor is out warning that
in 2011 there will be another crisis and that unemployment will rise
from current levels. I guess that Obama&#8217;s pessimistic approach to
assessing the economy is spreading abroad.

 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" colspan="5">
 Germany Consumer Climate Survey GFK</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td> Climate</td>
<td colspan="2"> Expectations</td>
<td> Propensity to</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td> Economic</td>
<td>Income</td>
<td>Buy</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Oct-09</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>8.7</td>
<td>12.9</td>
<td>26.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Sep-09</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>16.0</td>
<td>36.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Aug-09</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>-7.5</td>
<td>8.8</td>
<td>31.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Jul-09</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>-14.0</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>25.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Jun-09</td>
<td>2.7</td>
<td>-22.6</td>
<td>-3.3</td>
<td>14.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="5">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Average</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-3.8</td>
<td>-9.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Max</td>
<td>9.1</td>
<td>69.5</td>
<td>33.6</td>
<td>64.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Min</td>
<td>-3.5</td>
<td>-32.9</td>
<td>-24.5</td>
<td>-55.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">% range</td>
<td>61.1%</td>
<td>40.6%</td>
<td>64.4%</td>
<td>68.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Count%</td>
<td>59.6%</td>
<td>66.0%</td>
<td>92.6%</td>
<td>87.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">% range is
current reading as a
percentile of Hi/Low range</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">Count % is
current reading ranked as
a %-tile among all readings</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">GFK survey
dates from January 2002</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
 South Korea Reports 3Q GDP 
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise
Curley</a> October 26, 2009



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026i.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">South Korean
joins China and Singapore among the emerging economies of the Pacific
Rim to report third quarter GDP.&nbsp; GDP growth in the three
countries is shown in the first chart.&nbsp; The declines in the
economies of Korea and Singapore have been much more severe than those
in China.&nbsp; China has not experienced a year to year decline in
GDP, merely a deceleration of growth.&nbsp; At their low points in
the first quarter of this year, GDP in Singapore was 9.5% below the
year ago figure and GDP in Korea, 4.3% below.
Korea reported that GDP
grew 2.9% in the third quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared
with 2.7% in the second quarter.&nbsp; On a seasonally unadjusted
basis, GDP was 0.6% above the year ago figure, the first positive
figure since the third quarter of 2008.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026j.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">A swing in
inventories from a liquidation of 4,506 million won* in the
second quarter to an accumulation of 6,486 won in the third quarter was
the main factor in the third quarter strength.&nbsp; However, this
should not be a cause of concern at this point in the business
cycle.&nbsp; The rise follows three successive quarters of big
liquidations, beginning in the fourth quarter of 2008--7,290 million
won 6,788 million won and 4,506 million wan.&nbsp; The inventory to
shipments ratio for manufacturing at the end of the second quarter was
.97 down from 1.25 at the end of 2008.&nbsp; As can be seen in the
second chart, the I/S ratio for manufacturing was somewhat below normal
at the end of the second quarter so that a build up in the third
quarter is not unexpected.
 <img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026k.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">The
performance of the other components of
GDP was generally typical of that seen in the early stages of
recovery--some increases and some retrenchments.&nbsp; The one
notable exception was a greater decline in exports of goods and
services, than that in imports of goods and services, with the result
that the balance on goods and services declined from 20.3 billion won
in the second quarter to 19.1 billion won .&nbsp; In the past,
exports have been a dynamic element in the growth of the Korean economy
and generally quick to respond to improvements in the world economy.
Private consumption increased by 3,524.7 million won in the third
quarter compared with an increase of 1,367.1, this could be an sign
that Korea is beginning to shift away from its policy of export led
growth but it is probably not too wise to base a conclusion on one
quarter's evidence. See the third chart.&nbsp; There were small
declines in construction,&nbsp; fixed investment in intangible
assets and government consumption and the change in business investment
in plant and equipment was essentially unchanged at 1,778 million won
in the third quarter, compared with a rise of 1,846 million won in the
second quarter.
*The won in all cases is the 2005
chained won.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">
SOUTH KOREA</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 09</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 09</th>
<th scope="col">Q1&nbsp; 09</th>
<th scope="col">Q4 08</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="10"> GDP </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Q/Q Change (SA)</td>
<td>2.93</td>
<td>2.65</td>
<td>0.12</td>
<td>-5.07</td>
<td>0.22</td>
<td>0.43</td>
<td>1.00</td>
<td>2.22</td>
<td>5.11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Y/Y Change&nbsp; (NSA)</td>
<td>0.58</td>
<td>-2.16</td>
<td>-425</td>
<td>-3.40</td>
<td>3.11</td>
<td>4.35</td>
<td>5.46</td>
<td>2.22</td>
<td>5.11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Change in New Exports (Mil.
2005 Chained Won)</td>
<td>-1263</td>
<td>3572</td>
<td>3175</td>
<td>4876</td>
<td>-1590</td>
<td>48</td>
<td>756</td>
<td>10019</td>
<td>6577</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Change in Inventory Change "</td>
<td>6487</td>
<td>-4506</td>
<td>-6788</td>
<td>-7290</td>
<td>1396</td>
<td>467</td>
<td>2004</td>
<td>7752</td>
<td>-2815</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Change in Private
Consumption&nbsp; "</td>
<td>3525</td>
<td>1367</td>
<td>-880</td>
<td>-3189</td>
<td>1648</td>
<td>-3364</td>
<td>-25</td>
<td>4703</td>
<td>24655</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

</body></html>

Chicago Fed Index Dipped LastMonth But Trend Level Still Rising

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The EMU economy continues to spin off better economic signals.
Orders rose by 2% in August after a 3% rise in July and a 4.2% gain in
June. As a result the sequential growth rates are showing explosive
growth in orders- up at a 43% annual rate over three months - still
orders are lower Yr/Yr by over 20%. EMU MFG sales were up in August,
too, and they show sequential growth rates are improving. 
Orders rose in two of the four largest economies as Italy and
the UK took order setbacks in August. 
Italy and the UK also show dropping orders over three months.
The UK took a set back in growth as GDP dropped 0.4% Q/Q in Q3
(a 1.6% annualized rate of decline) an unexpected result that extends
the UK recession that was thought to have ended.
 Italy &#8217;s sharper drop in orders of 8.6% raises some
questions there. The UK GDP drop has brought pressure on sterling as
one might well have expected, but the weakness in Italy is another
matter as it is safely cocooned within the euro area. We do not know
how badly Italy &#8217;s orders drop will affect the economy but retail sales
have faltered recently. Consumers and businesses are seeing and
expecting totally different trends there. The hardest thing for EMU
policymakers is to have countries within the Zone moving in different
directions.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="10" scope="col">Euro Area
and UK Industrial Orders &amp; Sales Trends</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Saar except m/m</td>
<td colspan="3">% m/m</td>
<td>Aug 
09</td>
<td>Aug 
09</td>
<td>Aug 
09</td>
<td>Aug 
08</td>
<td>Aug 
07</td>
<td>Qtr 
2 
Date</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro Area</td>
<td>Aug 
09</td>
<td>Jul 
09</td>
<td>Jun 
09</td>
<td>3
Mo</td>
<td>6
mo</td>
<td>12
mo</td>
<td>12
mo</td>
<td>12
mo</td>
<td>Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing Sales</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>-19.6%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>11.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Intermediate</td>
<td>-3.7%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>34.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-21.4%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>9.0%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing Orders</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>43.7%</td>
<td>20.4%</td>
<td>-21.8%</td>
<td>-2.1%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>37.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Countries:</td>
<td>Aug 09</td>
<td>Jul 09</td>
<td>Jun 09</td>
<td>3Mo</td>
<td>6mo</td>
<td>12mo</td>
<td>12mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Qtr 2 Date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany:</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>36.9%</td>
<td>33.2%</td>
<td>-24.7%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>30.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France:</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>39.8%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>-13.8%</td>
<td>-7.7%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>43.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>-8.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-19.0%</td>
<td>-18.8%</td>
<td>-29.8%</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>-34.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK(EU)</td>
<td>-15.6%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>-22.5%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>-11.1%</td>
<td>-12.6%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>-48.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


 
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/0910231.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_s1026" align="left" height="258" hspace="12" width="203">
Markit PMIS are up-beat - The
goods news for EMU was that the Markit monthly look-ahead PMI reading
for October improved overall and for each of MFG and Services. The MFG
reading actually showed expansion for the first time since May of 2008.
Overall the EMU area seems to be continuing its progress despite Italy
&#8217;s troubles. 

Adding to the sense of good news in the face of the UK &#8217;s
ominous GDP drop was an improvement in Germany &#8217;s IFO index as business
climate improved along with current conditions and
expectations.
A background report from the OECD demonstrated that world
trade flows had stabilized in 2009-Q2. To
be sure it remains a day of mixed data but putting the UK &#8217;s GDP report
aside the news elsewhere was pretty upbeat. Dropping UK GDP is a big
fly in the ointment, but on the whole the signals from the UK economy
have not turned uniformly glum. Until GDP was reported, based on data
in hand, economists had expected a rise in GDP. Sometimes GDP
accounting can have this effect. While GDP is the best comprehensive
measure of how an economy is doing, around economic turning points
oddities with trade and inventories can send mixed the signals more
than they should. While we need to be wary of the UK economy&#8217;s
performance, on the whole the global economy seems to be in an upswing
and doing better. Ultimately that will help the UK too.

</body></html>

The EMU economy continues to spin off better economic signals. Orders rose by 2% in August after a 3% rise in July and a 4.2% gain in June. As a result the sequential growth rates are showing explosive growth in orders- up at a 43% [...]

EMU Orders Continue to Rise and Cut Year/Year Drop

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&nbsp;

<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091023c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The decline in home prices continued to moderate according the
U.S. House Price Index from the Federal Housing and Finance Agency
(FHFA). The Purchase Only Index for August fell 0.3% and reversed its
July increase. Nevertheless, the year-to-year decline in the nationwide
average of home prices eased to -3.6% from its worst reading of -8.8%
last November. Since their peak in early-2007 home prices nationwide
have fallen 10.7%. The FHFA uses data provided by Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac and is not value-weighted.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091023d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">

Notable monthly declines in home prices during August were
logged in the South Atlantic and the New England regions of the
country, though the y/y declines have moderated significantly.
Conversely, prices in the Mountain and in the Pacific regions recovered
m/m but remain down the most of the country's regions versus last
August. <img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091023e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Prices in the Middle Atlantic and in the East North Central
Regions also fell moderately during August but the y/y declines have
moderated significantly this year.
In the populous East North Central region prices slipped
another 0.6% during August but they were flat year-to-date. Prices also
slipped in the West South Central region but have risen slightly since
December.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091023f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Mideast Oil Exporters Face the Crisis Ahead from
the International Monetary Fund can be found <a href="http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2009/10/11/mideast-oil-exporters/">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">FHFA
U.S. House Price Index Purchase Only (%)</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>-3.6</td>
<td>-5.8</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>6.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; New England</td>
<td>-1.1</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>-3.4</td>
<td>-4.6</td>
<td>-1.7</td>
<td>1.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Middle Atlantic</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-2.8</td>
<td>-2.3</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>6.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; East North Central</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>-3.4</td>
<td>-4.4</td>
<td>-1.3</td>
<td>1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West North Central</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>-2.8</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>3.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South Atlantic</td>
<td>-1.6</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>-5.5</td>
<td>-7.1</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>7.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; East South Central</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>-1.1</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>-1.4</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West South Central</td>
<td>-0.0</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>4.7</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Mountain</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>-0.0</td>
<td>-7.8</td>
<td>-6.0</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>10.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Pacific</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-6.5</td>
<td>-17.3</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>9.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The decline in home prices continued to moderate according the U.S. House Price Index from the Federal Housing and Finance Agency (FHFA). The Purchase Only Index for August fell 0.3% and reversed its July increase. Nevertheless, the [...]

FHFA Home Price Index Reverses Monthly Gain While Y/Y Loss Eases

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091023a.jpg" width="353">
Home sales continue to recover, helped by lower prices. The National Association of Realtors reported that September sales of existing homes rose sharply to the highest level since July 2007. The 9.4% m/m increase to 5.570M units (SAAR) followed a 2.9% July decline that was little revised. Moreover, the increase in September home sales outpaced Consensus expectations for a rise to 5.35M. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
Sales of existing single-family homes alone similarly increased a sharp 9.4% to 4.890M last month and were up 20.7% from the January low. (These data have a longer history than the total sales series).
Recent sales have been helped by a tax credit for first-time home buyers. The credit of up to $8,000 extends though the end of this year. The full details of the home-buyer tax credit can be found <a href="http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/faq.php">here</a>.
The median price of an existing home fell for the third straight month, to $174,900. Though prices were still lower than the year-ago level, they have risen 6.1% from the January low. The median price for a single-family home was $174,900 (-8.1% y/y). These price declines have sharply raised home affordability. During August, the composite index of home affordability reversed all of its July decline and rose 2.3%. It was up 26.5% from August of last year but down 10.1% from its January peak due to a limited decline in interest rates.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091023b.jpg" width="353">
Perhaps due to lower prices, potential sellers put fewer homes on the market. The number of unsold homes (condos &amp; single-family) for sale fell 7.5% (-15.0% y/y) during September to near the lowest level since January 2007. Year-to-year inventories were down 15.0%. At the current sales rate there was a 7.8 months&#39; supply on the market which was near the lowest since early-2007. The latest figure was down from a high of 11.3 months early last year. For single-family homes the inventory fell 9.1% m/m (-16.7% y/y). At the current sales rate there was a 7.6 month&#39;s supply of homes on the market, the lowest since early-2007.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver&#39;s USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data is available in the REALTOR database.
Financial Regulation and Supervision after the Crisis: The Role of the Federal Reserve is the title of this morning&#39;s speech by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and it is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20091023a.htm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Existing Home Sales (Thous, SAAR)</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>5,570</td>
<td>5,090</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>4,893</td>
<td>5,674</td>
<td>6,516</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>950</td>
<td>910</td>
<td>11.8</td>
<td>845</td>
<td>1,010</td>
<td>1,093</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>1,250</td>
<td>1,140</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>1,130</td>
<td>1,331</td>
<td>1,494</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>2,060</td>
<td>1,890</td>
<td>10.8</td>
<td>1,860</td>
<td>2,243</td>
<td>2,577</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>1,300</td>
<td>1,150</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>1,064</td>
<td>1,095</td>
<td>1,357</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Single-Family</td>
<td>4,890</td>
<td>4,470</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>4,341</td>
<td>4,960</td>
<td>5,712</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Median Price, Total, $</td>
<td>174,900</td>
<td>177,300</td>
<td>-8.5</td>
<td>197,250</td>
<td>216,633</td>
<td>222,042</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Home sales continue to recover, helped by lower prices. The National Association of Realtors reported that September sales of existing homes rose sharply to the highest level since July 2007. The 9.4% m/m increase to 5.570M units [...]

U.S. Existing Home Sales Jump But Prices Decline Again

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091023a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Home sales continue to recover, helped by lower prices. The
National Association of Realtors reported that September sales of
existing homes rose sharply to the highest level since July
2007. The 9.4% m/m increase to 5.570M units (SAAR) followed a 2.9% July
decline that was little revised. Moreover, the increase in September
home sales outpaced Consensus expectations for a rise to 5.35M. Total
sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
Sales of existing single-family homes alone similarly
increased a sharp 9.4% to 4.890M last month and were up 20.7% from the
January low. (These data have a longer history than the total sales
series).
Recent sales have been helped by a tax credit for first-time
home buyers. The credit of up to $8,000 extends though the end of this
year. The full details of the home-buyer tax credit can be found <a href="http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/faq.php">here</a>.
The median price of an existing home fell for the third
straight month, to $174,900. Though prices were still lower than the
year-ago level, they have risen 6.1% from the January low. The median
price for a single-family home was $174,900 (-8.1% y/y). These price
declines have sharply raised home affordability. During August, the
composite index of home affordability reversed all of its July decline
and rose 2.3%. It was up 26.5% from August of last year but down 10.1%
from its January peak due to a limited decline in interest rates.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091023b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Perhaps due to lower prices, potential sellers put fewer homes
on the market. The number of unsold homes (condos &amp;
single-family) for sale fell 7.5% (-15.0% y/y) during September to near
the lowest level since January 2007. Year-to-year inventories were down
15.0%. At the current sales rate there was a 7.8 months' supply on the
market which was near the lowest since early-2007. The latest figure
was down from a high of 11.3 months early last year. For single-family
homes the inventory fell 9.1% m/m (-16.7% y/y). At the current sales
rate there was a 7.6 month's supply of homes on the market, the lowest
since early-2007.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can
be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional
price, affordability and inventory data is available in the REALTOR
database.
Financial Regulation and Supervision after the
Crisis: The Role of the Federal Reserve is the title of this
morning's speech by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and it is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20091023a.htm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Existing
Home Sales (Thous, SAAR)</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>5,570</td>
<td>5,090</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>4,893</td>
<td>5,674</td>
<td>6,516</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>950</td>
<td>910</td>
<td>11.8</td>
<td>845</td>
<td>1,010</td>
<td>1,093</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>1,250</td>
<td>1,140</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>1,130</td>
<td>1,331</td>
<td>1,494</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>2,060</td>
<td>1,890</td>
<td>10.8</td>
<td>1,860</td>
<td>2,243</td>
<td>2,577</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>1,300</td>
<td>1,150</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>1,064</td>
<td>1,095</td>
<td>1,357</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Single-Family</td>
<td>4,890</td>
<td>4,470</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>4,341</td>
<td>4,960</td>
<td>5,712</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Median Price, Total, $</td>
<td>174,900</td>
<td>177,300</td>
<td>-8.5</td>
<td>197,250</td>
<td>216,633</td>
<td>222,042</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
FHFA Home Price Index Reverses
Monthly Gain While Y/Y Loss Eases&nbsp; 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller&nbsp;</a> October 23, 2009&nbsp;

<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091023c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The decline in home prices continued to moderate according the
U.S. House Price Index from the Federal Housing and Finance Agency
(FHFA). The Purchase Only Index for August fell 0.3% and reversed its
July increase. Nevertheless, the year-to-year decline in the nationwide
average of home prices eased to -3.6% from its worst reading of -8.8%
last November. Since their peak in early-2007 home prices nationwide
have fallen 10.7%. The FHFA uses data provided by Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac and is not value-weighted.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091023d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">

Notable monthly declines in home prices during August were
logged in the South Atlantic and the New England regions of the
country, though the y/y declines have moderated significantly.
Conversely, prices in the Mountain and in the Pacific regions recovered
m/m but remain down the most of the country's regions versus last
August. <img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091023e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Prices in the Middle Atlantic and in the East North Central
Regions also fell moderately during August but the y/y declines have
moderated significantly this year.
In the populous East North Central region prices slipped
another 0.6% during August but they were flat year-to-date. Prices also
slipped in the West South Central region but have risen slightly since
December.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091023f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Mideast Oil Exporters Face the Crisis Ahead from
the International Monetary Fund can be found <a href="http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2009/10/11/mideast-oil-exporters/">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">FHFA
U.S. House Price Index Purchase Only (%)</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>-3.6</td>
<td>-5.8</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>6.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; New England</td>
<td>-1.1</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>-3.4</td>
<td>-4.6</td>
<td>-1.7</td>
<td>1.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Middle Atlantic</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-2.8</td>
<td>-2.3</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>6.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; East North Central</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>-3.4</td>
<td>-4.4</td>
<td>-1.3</td>
<td>1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West North Central</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>-2.8</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>3.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South Atlantic</td>
<td>-1.6</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>-5.5</td>
<td>-7.1</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>7.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; East South Central</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>-1.1</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>-1.4</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West South Central</td>
<td>-0.0</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>4.7</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Mountain</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>-0.0</td>
<td>-7.8</td>
<td>-6.0</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>10.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Pacific</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-6.5</td>
<td>-17.3</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>9.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
EMU Orders Continue to Rise and
Cut Year/Year Drop 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> October 23, 2009


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091026a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The EMU economy continues to spin off better economic signals.
Orders rose by 2% in August after a 3% rise in July and a 4.2% gain in
June. As a result the sequential growth rates are showing explosive
growth in orders- up at a 43% annual rate over three months - still
orders are lower Yr/Yr by over 20%. EMU MFG sales were up in August,
too, and they show sequential growth rates are improving. 
Orders rose in two of the four largest economies as Italy and
the UK took order setbacks in August. 
Italy and the UK also show dropping orders over three months.
The UK took a set back in growth as GDP dropped 0.4% Q/Q in Q3
(a 1.6% annualized rate of decline) an unexpected result that extends
the UK recession that was thought to have ended.
 Italy &#8217;s sharper drop in orders of 8.6% raises some
questions there. The UK GDP drop has brought pressure on sterling as
one might well have expected, but the weakness in Italy is another
matter as it is safely cocooned within the euro area. We do not know
how badly Italy &#8217;s orders drop will affect the economy but retail sales
have faltered recently. Consumers and businesses are seeing and
expecting totally different trends there. The hardest thing for EMU
policymakers is to have countries within the Zone moving in different
directions.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="10" scope="col">Euro Area
and UK Industrial Orders &amp; Sales Trends</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Saar except m/m</td>
<td colspan="3">% m/m</td>
<td>Aug 
09</td>
<td>Aug 
09</td>
<td>Aug 
09</td>
<td>Aug 
08</td>
<td>Aug 
07</td>
<td>Qtr 
2 
Date</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro Area</td>
<td>Aug 
09</td>
<td>Jul 
09</td>
<td>Jun 
09</td>
<td>3
Mo</td>
<td>6
mo</td>
<td>12
mo</td>
<td>12
mo</td>
<td>12
mo</td>
<td>Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing Sales</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>-19.6%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>11.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Intermediate</td>
<td>-3.7%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>34.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-21.4%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>9.0%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing Orders</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>43.7%</td>
<td>20.4%</td>
<td>-21.8%</td>
<td>-2.1%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>37.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Countries:</td>
<td>Aug 
09</td>
<td>Jul 
09</td>
<td>Jun 
09</td>
<td>3Mo</td>
<td>6mo</td>
<td>12mo</td>
<td>12mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Qtr 
2 
Date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany:</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>36.9%</td>
<td>33.2%</td>
<td>-24.7%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>30.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France:</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>39.8%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>-13.8%</td>
<td>-7.7%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>43.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>-8.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-19.0%</td>
<td>-18.8%</td>
<td>-29.8%</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>-34.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK(EU)</td>
<td>-15.6%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>-22.5%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>-11.1%</td>
<td>-12.6%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>-48.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


 
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/0910231.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_s1026" align="left" height="258" hspace="12" width="203">
Markit PMIS are up-beat - The
goods news for EMU was that the Markit monthly look-ahead PMI reading
for October improved overall and for each of MFG and Services. The MFG
reading actually showed expansion for the first time since May of 2008.
Overall the EMU area seems to be continuing its progress despite Italy
&#8217;s troubles. 

Adding to the sense of good news in the face of the UK &#8217;s
ominous GDP drop was an improvement in Germany &#8217;s IFO index as business
climate improved along with current conditions and
expectations.
A background report from the OECD demonstrated that world
trade flows had stabilized in 2009-Q2. To
be sure it remains a day of mixed data but putting the UK &#8217;s GDP report
aside the news elsewhere was pretty upbeat. Dropping UK GDP is a big
fly in the ointment, but on the whole the signals from the UK economy
have not turned uniformly glum. Until GDP was reported, based on data
in hand, economists had expected a rise in GDP. Sometimes GDP
accounting can have this effect. While GDP is the best comprehensive
measure of how an economy is doing, around economic turning points
oddities with trade and inventories can send mixed the signals more
than they should. While we need to be wary of the UK economy&#8217;s
performance, on the whole the global economy seems to be in an upswing
and doing better. Ultimately that will help the UK too.

</body></html>

U.S. Existing Home Sales Jump ButPrices Decline Again

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

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Winnie Tapasanun

260113F29.jpg

260113G29.jpg

New single-family home sales dipped 0.1% m/m (+18.7% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 737,000 units in October following rises of 3.8% to 738,000 in September and 11.3% to 711,000 in August (+20.5%, 800,000 previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected sales of 710,000 for October. The October figure was the first m/m decline since July, though sales remained 42.0% up from the July 2022 low of 519,000. The sales dip occurred alongside a drop in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.25% in October, the lowest since September 2024, after declining to 6.35% in September; it had subsequently continued trending downward, according to Freddie Mac.

By region, October new home sales fell m/m in all major regions except the South. Sales in the West plunged 36.3% (-24.8% y/y) to 109,000 in October, the lowest level since July 2022, after a 9.6% increase in September. Sales in the Northeast dropped 14.3% (-40.0% y/y) to 24,000 after holding steady at 28,000 in September and August. Sales in the Midwest fell 9.0% (+21.3% y/y) to 91,000 following a strong 25.0% September gain. For these three regions, October marked the first m/m decline since July. In contrast, sales in the South surged 16.9% (42.1% y/y) to 513,000, the highest level since March 2021, after a 1.8% September decline. The South remained the dominant region, accounting for 69.6% of total U.S. new home sales.

The median sales price of a new home fell 3.3% (-8.0% y/y) to $392,300 in October on top of a 3.4% decline to $405,800 in September, marking the fourth m/m fall in five months and the lowest level since July 2021. The median sales price had fallen 14.8% since its record high of $460,300 in October 2022. Meanwhile, the average sales price of a new home rose 3.0% (-4.6% y/y) to $498,000 in October after an 8.1% drop to $483,500. The average price was 8.0% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market held steady at 488,000 (+1.7% y/y) in October after four straight m/m declines. The latest figure was 14.6% above a low of 426,000 in July 2023. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale remained at 7.9 months in October and September—the lowest reading since September 2024—after falling to 8.3 months in August. The latest reading, while above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023, remained below a high of 10.6 months in July 2022.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market rose to 2.7 months in October, the highest since March 2025, after registering at 2.4 months in September and August. The latest number was above its record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022 but well below a peak of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260113H29.jpg

260113I29.jpg

- October sales -0.1% (+18.7% y/y) to 737,000; still 42.0% above the July ’22 low.
- Sales fall m/m in all major regions except the South (+16.9%).
- Median sales price down to $392,300, lowest since July ’21; avg. price up to $498,000.
- Months' supply of new homes for sale holds steady at 7.9 mths., lowest since Sept. '24.

U.S. New Home Sales Ease in October After Two Straight M/M Increases

Michael J. Moran

260113L.jpg

260113M.jpg

The consumer price index rose 0.3% in December, while the core index (prices excluding food and energy) rose 0.2%. Both measures were faster than the averages of 0.1 percent in the prior two months. (The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish a CPI for October because of the government shutdown. Both the headline and core indexes showed increases of 0.2% for the two-month period from September to November.)

The December results were not pronounced enough to suggest that the restraint in October and November reflected distortions triggered by the government shutdown. At the same time, they were not soft enough to suggest that October and November were signaling faster deceleration in inflation. The past three months seemed to be showing the same degree of random volatility seen in the prior two years, with the underlying trends showing a slight degree of deceleration. The year-over-year increase in headline CPI totaled 2.7%, only slightly slower than 3.0% in mid-2024. The Core has eased a bit more: 2.6% in December versus 3.3% in mid 2024.

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Prices of core goods and services have been following different paths in the past few years, and they carried different signals in December. Prices of core goods showed no month-to-month change in December, which kept the year-over-year trajectory moving sideways. The flat pattern is encouraging in that it suggests that core goods inflation is perhaps steadying after trending upward since mid-2024. Core service prices rose 0.3 percent in December, in line with the recent average. Core service inflation showed little easing in the early part of 2025, but hints of slowing emerged from September to November. December results, though, raised questions about faster deceleration in service inflation.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

- Not by enough to suggest that restraint in October and November reflected distortions from the government shutdown
- But by enough to suggest that October and November reflected normal volatility rather than the beginning of a slower trend.

December CPI: Price Increases Quickened After Two Slow Months

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Swiss consumer confidence at end-2025 (in Q4) fell to -34.5 from -32.7 in 2025-Q3. The average level for the confidence reading on data back to 1982 is -16.7 and the current queue standing is 13.9%. The Q4 reading is clearly weak- well below its own average and weaker than this month, less than 15% of the time.

Outlook confidence in Q4 fell to -44.9 from -38.0 in Q3, registering a 15.6 percentile standing. The past confidence reading at -61.2 at end-2025 is down from -43.5 at the end of the third quarter. The standing for this reading is in its 19th percentile. All of these are extremely weak readings.

People provide a job security response in Q4 that eases to -50.1, still well above its historic average of -58.2 for a queue ranking at its 57th percentile.

Personal financial readings are moderate to weak across the board. However, current financial conditions rose to 38.4 in Q4 from 35.2 at the end of Q3 and a queue standing above its median at its 56th percentile. But the outlook for financial conditions is much weaker and also weakened quarter-to-quarter to -31.4 in Q4 from a level of -28.6 in Q3 to a queue ranking in its 8.7 percentile. The evaluation of past financial conditions improved by a very small margin, rising to -38.3 in Q4 from -38.7 in Q3, and to a queue standing at the 11.6 percentile.

The spending environment in Switzerland improved slightly but remained weak, rising to -23.3 in Q4 from -25.5 in Q3 to a standing at their 23.1 percentile standing.

The best part of the report is that the perception of job security is above average, and the current financial situation is above its median. After that, all the individual assessment metrics are weak including overall confidence – everything except assessments for inflation.

On the inflation front, the price outlook is high, rising to a reading of 97.7 in Q4 from 95.8 in Q3 but is still below the second quarter reading at 113.1. The price outlook has a moderately high standing at its 70.5 percentile. This standing is slightly below the standing for prices past which is at 76.3%. The past metric was still rising in the fourth quarter but was weaker than its reading in both Q1 and Q2 of 2025.

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**Summing up**
Inflation fears appear to still linger, but they are not as intense as they once were. Confidence overall is weak, but the most important aspects of job security and assessment of financial conditions have the strongest readings; yet, the environment for major purchases is still at a weak position. In Switzerland, people do not feel threatened or financially unstable, but they are not positive enough to spend freely either. And inflation fears are creeping up again all key trends to watch.

Switzerland

Swiss Confidence Sags at End-2025

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we highlight several pertinent developments that have shaped the start of the year and may carry longer-lasting implications. To begin with, the recent capture of former Venezuelan President Maduro by the US authorities and the subsequent crude oil trade deal could have far-reaching effects—potentially altering China’s imports of Venezuelan crude and broader bilateral trade dynamics (chart 1), as well as global energy supply considerations (chart 2).

In Japan, Prime Minister Takaichi’s reported consideration of early snap elections, if enacted, would likely inject near-term political uncertainty (chart 3). However, should her gambit succeed, it could reduce  policy uncertainty and pave the way for more fiscal policy activism. Against this backdrop, it is unsurprising that investors remain divided over the timing of the Bank of Japan’s next policy tightening, although the upcoming Spring wage negotiations (chart 4) ought to provide clearer signals for the monetary policy outlook.

Turning to investor expectations from the latest Blue Chip survey, India is once again seen as the growth leader among major Asian economies, while also poised to record the highest inflation (chart 5). China, by contrast, is expected to deliver sub-5% growth this year alongside muted inflation. Lastly, in Southeast Asia, pockets of geopolitical tension persist—notably between Thailand and Cambodia (chart 6)—as Thailand prepares for snap elections next month.

**The US, Venezuela, and China**
2026 got off to a turbulent start following a recent US military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of former President Maduro and his transfer to the US to face drug-related charges. In the aftermath, Venezuela’s former vice president (Delcy Rodriguez) was sworn in as interim leader, while US and Venezuelan authorities have reportedly already reached a new crude oil deal. Under the agreement, Venezuela would sell 30–50 million barrels of crude to the US at market prices, with the proceeds controlled by the US. These developments have several potential implications. First, some Venezuelan crude initially destined for China would likely be diverted to the US. China has been the main buyer of Venezuelan oil in recent years, although this is likely underreported in official data (chart 1), which would tighten conditions for the crude-import-dependent country. Second, an eventual increase in Venezuelan crude supply—previously constrained by heavy US sanctions—would likely exert downward pressure on global oil prices, all else equal, although significant challenges remain, as discussed below.

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To illustrate the potential significance of Venezuela’s crude oil industry, chart 2 shows that the country holds nearly a fifth of the world’s proved crude oil reserves. However, output remains disproportionately low relative to reserves, possibly reflecting years of US sanctions as well as mismanagement and chronic underinvestment. Given the current state of the industry, substantial investment will likely be required for Venezuela to restore production to historically high levels and to more fully tap its deep proved reserves. As a result, any meaningful surge in Venezuelan crude output is likely to take time, which may help explain the muted market response to recent US–Venezuelan developments. Also of note, China has been a major lender to Venezuela, including through “oil-for-loan” arrangements in which repayments are made in crude oil. It remains to be seen how these existing and future agreements may be affected by recent developments.

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**Japan**
Setting aside the interplay between the US, Venezuela, and China, another economy worth watching early this year is Japan. Developments continue to unfold following renewed China–Japan tensions after Prime Minister Takaichi assumed office. With her approval ratings having remained consistently high since taking the helm, Takaichi is reportedly considering snap elections as early as next month to strengthen her ruling coalition’s parliamentary position. While a stronger mandate could reduce policy uncertainty, near-term political uncertainty would be the likely case. This interim uncertainty may be weighing on the yen. It is being compounded by expectations of upcoming pro-growth measures, including the $118 million supplementary budget passed last December and the prospect of additional fiscal stimulus next fiscal year, contingent on an electoral win (chart 3).

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Turning back to Japan and the monetary policy outlook, investors remain divided over the timing of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next policy move following its December rate hike. This uncertainty is understandable given the multiple moving parts shaping the BoJ’s path, including the factors discussed above. Looking ahead, the upcoming annual wage negotiations and broader trends in wage growth (chart 4) will be closely watched by the BoJ as key preconditions for further rate hikes. Reflecting this uncertainty, our latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey shows investors split between expectations for a hike in March and views that the next move will only come after April.

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**Blue Chip Economic Indicators**
Delving into the latest Blue Chip survey results, chart 5 summarizes panellists’ expectations for growth and inflation this year. Focusing on major Asian economies, and as in 2025, India is seen to be leading the pack in terms of both real GDP growth and CPI inflation. That said, the inflation outlook may be subject to further revisions should India’s currently muted inflation—driven by falling food prices—persist for longer. For China, panellists currently expect sub-5% growth this year, implying a likely miss should a 5% growth target again be pursued. Inflation in China is once again expected to remain subdued. Japan, meanwhile, is forecast to post sub-1% real GDP growth, while CPI inflation is expected to hover around the authorities’ preferred 2% level. Looking ahead, attention will also turn to the IMF’s upcoming World Economic Outlook forecasts, due later this month.

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**Southeast Asia**
Last but not least, turning to Southeast Asia, promising AI- and tech-related growth continues in economies such as Malaysia and Vietnam. However, pockets of geopolitical tension persist, notably between Thailand and Cambodia, where border clashes have occurred despite previous attempts at peace, including one co-brokered by US President Trump. Against this backdrop, Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin is preparing for snap elections in early February, amid a reported rise in nationalist sentiment linked to the ongoing clashes. These developments create latent risks for both Thailand and Cambodia (chart 6), while the uncertainty surrounding the elections also clouds the implementation of longer-term policies aimed at addressing Thailand’s deeper structural challenges.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: A Bumpy Start

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Nonfarm payrolls rose 50,000 in December, continuing a pattern of modest increases that began in early 2025 and intensified last spring. The December results were constrained by an outright decline in the goods-producing sector, with both construction companies and manufacturers shedding workers. The private service sector was in the plus column, but the gain of 58,000 was not especially impressive. The retail trade sector was notably soft (-25,000), and a drop of 9,000 among firms in the business-service area was disappointing.

Revisions to results in October and November were more notable than the new figures for December, as downward adjustments of 76,000 more than offset the gain in December and left a net decline in the fourth quarter. Several areas contributed to the revisions (retail trade, construction, health care, transportation & warehousing, business services).

Not only were the recent job numbers soft, but the average workweek among those employed eased 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours. The reading was still within the range of observations from the past two years, but it moved to the bottom of the range. A dip of 0.1 hour might seem trivial, but when applied to 160 million workers, it represents a constraint on production. This decline added to the soft tone of the report.

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Although the payroll numbers were soft, the unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%. The drop reflected a jump of 232,000 in employment as measured by the survey of households. This employment measure is more volatile than the payroll figures from the survey of business establishments, and thus the gain might contain a healthy dose of random volatility. Still, it offered encouragement in that December marked the fifth consecutive gain, perhaps signaling that the bottom was not falling out of the labor market. 

Average hourly earnings also suggested that the labor market still had a pulse. December showed an increase of 0.3% in average hourly earnings, and results in the prior month were firmer than previously estimated (0.2% growth rather than 0.1%). The underlying trend is still cooling, but the year-over-year advance of 3.8% still represents a gain in real earnings.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

- Modest job growth in December, and downward revisions in October & November.
- The unemployment rate, though, inched lower.