Tom Moeller

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091112a.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
U.S. job
market continues to improve. That's the message from the Labor
Department's report of another decline last week in initial claims for
jobless insurance. They're down to 502,000 from 514,000 during the
prior week which was revised up from 512,000. The latest figures are
the lowest of this year and are down sharply from the March peak of
674,000 claims. The four-week moving average of claims fell to 519,750
and the latest weekly figure was lower than Consensus expectations for
510,000.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091112b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the
latest week fell a sharp 139,000 to the lowest level since mid-March.
The decline reflects the improved job market but may also be a function
of the exhaustion of benefits. Continuing claims provide an indication
of workers' ability to find employment. The four-week average of
continuing claims fell modestly to 5,790,750 and have fallen 14.5% from
their peak. This series dates back to 1966.&nbsp;Extended benefits
for unemployment insurance fell and reversed the prior week's increase.
Through late-October extended benefits averaged 523,061.The insured
rate of unemployment slipped 4.3%, the lowest since mid-March. The rate
reached a high of 5.2% during late-June. During the last ten years,
there has been a 93% correlation between the level of the insured
unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091112c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The highest insured unemployment
rates in the week ending October 24 were in Puerto Rico (6.4%), Oregon
(5.4), Nevada (5.2), Pennsylvania (4.9), California (4.8), Arkansas
(4.8), Wisconsin (4.8), Alaska (4.8), Michigan (4.5), North Carolina
(4.5), and South Carolina (4.5). The lowest insured unemployment rates
were in North Dakota (1.1%), South Dakota (1.1), Virginia (2.0),
Wyoming (2.6), Maine (2.5), Texas (2.5), Colorado (2.9), Maryland
(3.2), Mississippi (3.5), New York (3.5), Georgia (3.7) and Florida
(3.8).The unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY
database and the state data is in the REGIONW
database.The Exchange Rate: What's in It for Prices? from
the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/business-review/2009/q3/brq309_exchange-rate.pdf">here</a>.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment
Insurance (000s)</a>&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">11/07/09</th>
<th scope="col">10/31/09</th>
<th scope="col">10/24/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>502</td>
<td>514</td>
<td>532</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>420</td>
<td>321</td>
<td>313</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>5,631</td>
<td>5,770</td>
<td>43.2%</td>
<td>3,342</td>
<td>2,552</td>
<td>2,459</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Insured Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>3.1 (11/'08)</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>1.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

U.S. job market continues to improve. That's the message from the Labor Department's report of another decline last week in initial claims for jobless insurance. They're down to 502,000 from 514,000 during the prior week which was [...]

U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fall Again To 2009 Low

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091112a.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">U.S. job
market continues to improve. That's the message from the Labor
Department's report of another decline last week in initial claims for
jobless insurance. They're down to 502,000 from 514,000 during the
prior week which was revised up from 512,000. The latest figures are
the lowest of this year and are down sharply from the March peak of
674,000 claims. The four-week moving average of claims fell to 519,750
and the latest weekly figure was lower than Consensus expectations for
510,000.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091112b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Continuing
claims for unemployment insurance during the
latest week fell a sharp 139,000 to the lowest level since mid-March.
The decline reflects the improved job market but may also be a function
of the exhaustion of benefits. Continuing claims provide an indication
of workers' ability to find employment. The four-week average of
continuing claims fell modestly to 5,790,750 and have fallen 14.5% from
their peak. This series dates back to 1966.&nbsp;Extended benefits
for unemployment insurance fell and reversed the prior week's increase.
Through late-October extended benefits averaged 523,061.
The insured
rate of unemployment slipped 4.3%, the lowest since mid-March. The rate
reached a high of 5.2% during late-June. During the last ten years,
there has been a 93% correlation between the level of the insured
unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091112c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">The
highest insured unemployment
rates in the week ending October 24 were in Puerto Rico (6.4%), Oregon
(5.4), Nevada (5.2), Pennsylvania (4.9), California (4.8), Arkansas
(4.8), Wisconsin (4.8), Alaska (4.8), Michigan (4.5), North Carolina
(4.5), and South Carolina (4.5). The lowest insured unemployment rates
were in North Dakota (1.1%), South Dakota (1.1), Virginia (2.0),
Wyoming (2.6), Maine (2.5), Texas (2.5), Colorado (2.9), Maryland
(3.2), Mississippi (3.5), New York (3.5), Georgia (3.7) and Florida
(3.8).
The unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's
WEEKLY
database and the state data is in the REGIONW
database.
The Exchange Rate: What's in It for Prices? from
the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/business-review/2009/q3/brq309_exchange-rate.pdf">here</a>.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment
Insurance (000s)</a>&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">11/07/09</th>
<th scope="col">10/31/09</th>
<th scope="col">10/24/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>502</td>
<td>514</td>
<td>532</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>420</td>
<td>321</td>
<td>313</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>5,631</td>
<td>5,770</td>
<td>43.2%</td>
<td>3,342</td>
<td>2,552</td>
<td>2,459</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Insured Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>3.1 (11/'08)</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>1.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

 U.S. Weekly Mortgage Applications
Rise Overall But Purchases Slacken 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> November 12, 2009


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091112e.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The Mortgage Bankers Association indicated that mortgage
applications rose 3.2% last week and remained up by nearly one-half
from last year. But the overall figure masks conflicting trends between
mortgage applications for purchase (down) and for refinance (up).
Applications to purchase a home fell hard
for the fifth consecutive week and they are down by one-quarter during
the period. The decline, no doubt, partially reflects the expiration of
an up-to $8,000 Federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers. The
credit, however, was recently extended to April of next year. During
the last ten years there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y
change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing
single family home sales. The correlation has lessened recently.
Applications to refinance mortgages rose solidly
last week and were up by one-half from the June low due to declines in
interest rates.
The effective interest rate on conventional 15-year mortgages
fell last week to 4.61% which is near the recent low and down from the
June average of 5.21%. For 30-year mortgages, the rate also fell last
week to 5.11% after reaching a high of 5.79% in early-June. Interest
rates on 15-year and 30-year mortgages are closely correlated
(&gt;90%) with the rate on 10-year Treasury securities. Rates on
adjustable one-year mortgages rose to 6.94% last week which was the
highest level since November of last year.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091112f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
During the last twelve months, the number of fixed-rate
mortgage applications has risen 43.0% while the number of
adjustable-rate mortgage applications has roughly tripled.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of
the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance,
purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of
all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by
mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. Visit the Mortgage
Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.The figures for weekly mortgage
applications are available in Haver's SURVEYW
database.
Unequal We Stand: An Empirical Analysis of
Economic Inequality in the United States, 1967&#8211;2006 from
the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis can be found <a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/SR/SR436.pdf">here</a>. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA
Mortgage Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/06/09</th>
<th scope="col">10/30/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>627.5</td>
<td>608.3</td>
<td>47.6%</td>
<td>642.9</td>
<td>652.6</td>
<td>584.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>220.9</td>
<td>250.3</td>
<td>-22.3</td>
<td>345.4</td>
<td>424.9</td>
<td>406.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,998.2</td>
<td>2,693.7</td>
<td>140.2</td>
<td>2,394.1</td>
<td>1,997.9</td>
<td>1,634.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">15-Year Effective Interest Rate
(%)</td>
<td>4.61%</td>
<td>4.67%</td>
<td>5.98% (11/08)</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
 EMU MFG Still Digging Its Way Out 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca </a> November 12, 2009


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091112d.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
MFG IP in the e-Zone rose in September laying a foundation for
continued economic recovery. Over three months the annual rate of IP
growth is now 1.9% compared to flat over six months and lower by 13.8%
over 12-months. 
 

To be sure the lift off in IP is less than in indicators such
as the Markit MFG PMI index or the jump in orders. But it takes longer
for actual output to be put to work than for indicators of improvement
to show progress. The large countries are showing more rapid increases
in growth than is EMU as a whole. 
 

For Germany three-month growth is up at an 18.7% annual rate;
that is surpassed by the ever volatile results from Spain that
skyrocketed at a 29% pace over three months. France is up at an 8%
pace; Italy is up at a 4% pace. EU member the UK is lagging as it has
MFG IP up at a tiny 0.5% pace over three-months. For this group
six-month growth rates are all positive and the three-month results
show acceleration compared to six months. Over 12-months IP in all
countries still is falling rapidly, at a double-digit pace. 
 

By industry the consumer sector continues to lag. Consumer
durables output is off on the month and over three months it is down by
-2.1% countered by a three-month rise of 1.6% in consumer nondurables
output. Capital goods output is up at a 6.6% pace over three-months.
Intermediate goods output is flying at a 13% annual rate of expansion
as commodities and raw goods lead the cycle 
 

These figures confirm the trend we already have seen.
Consumers are lagging and raw goods are rising strongly. Investment is
picking up. Still consumer sentiment is one of the stronger barometers
for EMU even though consumer spending and the output of consumer goods
has been lagging. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" colspan="11">
E-zone
MFG IP</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="grey5">
<td class="firstcol">Saar
except m/m</td>
<td colspan="3">Mo/Mo</td>
<td>Sep 
09</td>
<td>Aug 
09</td>
<td>Sep 
09</td>
<td>Aug 
09</td>
<td>Sep 
09</td>
<td>Aug 
09</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol" style="white-space: nowrap;">Ezone
Detail</td>
<td>Sep 
09</td>
<td>Aug 
09</td>
<td>Jul 
09</td>
<td>3Mo</td>
<td>3Mo</td>
<td>6Mo</td>
<td>6Mo</td>
<td>12Mo</td>
<td>12Mo</td>
<td>Q-3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">MFG</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>-13.8%</td>
<td>-16.5%</td>
<td> 0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer</td>
<td ="">0.3%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-3.2%</td>
<td>-4.9%</td>
<td> 1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">C-Durables</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>-2.1%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>-10.7%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
<td>-19.2%</td>
<td>-15.0%</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">C-Non-durables</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>13.0%</td>
<td>13.4%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>-16.6%</td>
<td>-19.6%</td>
<td> 14.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Capital</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-18.7%</td>
<td>-22.2%</td>
<td> 2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td colspan="11" class="firstcol">Main
E-zone Countries and UK IP in MFG</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey5">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">
Mo/Mo</td>
<td> Sep 
09</td>
<td> Aug 
09</td>
<td> Sep 
09</td>
<td> Aug 
09</td>
<td> Sep 
09</td>
<td> Aug 
09</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">MFG
Only</td>
<td>Sep 
09</td>
<td>Aug 
09</td>
<td>Jul 
09</td>
<td>3Mo</td>
<td>3Mo</td>
<td>6Mo</td>
<td>6Mo</td>
<td>12Mo</td>
<td>12Mo</td>
<td>Q:3 
Date</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Germany:</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>18.4%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>14.9%</td>
<td>9.6%</td>
<td>-14.3%</td>
<td>-19.2%</td>
<td> 15.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol" style="">France:IPx
Construct'n</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>15.5%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>-10.4%</td>
<td>-10.0%</td>
<td> 12.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>32.7%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>-16.9%</td>
<td>-13.5%</td>
<td> 12.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
<td>9.1%</td>
<td>29.2%</td>
<td>47.0%</td>
<td>19.5%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>-12.4%</td>
<td>-10.6%</td>
<td> 33.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">UK:
EU
member</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
<td>-9.4%</td>
<td>-11.6%</td>
<td> -0.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

U.S. Weekly Initial JoblessInsurance Claims Fall Again To 2009 Low

Robert Brusca

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111g.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Japan&#8217;s machinery orders rose by 6% in September. Core
machinery orders spurted by 10.5%. Foreign demand is the whole of the
pickup as domestic orders fell by 5.4% while foreign orders rose by
25.9% both in September.
The three month metrics show that core orders are still not
out of the woods; their three month growth rate is just 2.9% annualized
the same as their six month growth rate. Still these two horizon growth
rates are better than the -21.8% Year-over-year performance. Core
machinery orders are no longer falling but they are not rising very
rapidly.
The same sort of shortfalls exist across countries
Moreover Japan like Germany is benefiting from external
growth. Over three months, foreign demand is up at a 180% annual rate
that is an acceleration from a 60.4% annual rate over six months and
those numbers reverse the 42% drop in foreign demand Yr/Yr. Still,
domestic demand is wanting. Over three months it is up at a 19.9% pace,
better than the -1% rate over six months, and that is an improvement
from the drop of 14.9% Yr/Yr.
On balance Japan&#8217;s orders are on the mend. Even domestic
orders are showing a push into positive territory. But these series are
very volatile and given the volatility the recent domestic growth
figures are not very impressive. Much more impressive is the growth in
foreign orders that seems to be jumpstarting Japan as a whole. 

As the global economy turns to recovery one key challenge is
going to be to see if surplus and deficit countries begin to make
adjustments. Note that Japan and Germany, traditional exporting powers,
continue to get a lot of their stimulus from overseas. China&#8217;s trade
surplus was up this month. How is the US going to keep the lid on its
deficit if everyone else is running surpluses? Large structural trade
imbalances and the persisting investment flows they imply was one of
the main sources of instability in this past cycle. Is anything going
to change?

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" colspan="8">Japan
Machinery Orders</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">m/m %</td>
<td colspan="4">Saar %</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">SA</td>
<td>Sep-09</td>
<td>Aug-09</td>
<td>Jul-09</td>
<td>3-Mos</td>
<td>6-Mos</td>
<td>12-Mos</td>
<td>12-Mo Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>56.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-26.5%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Core Orders*</td>
<td>10.5%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>-9.3%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>-21.8%</td>
<td>-3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Total Orders</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Foreign Demand</td>
<td>25.9%</td>
<td>-15.7%</td>
<td>21.8%</td>
<td>180.0%</td>
<td>60.4%</td>
<td>-42.2%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic demand</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>19.9%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-14.9%</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">* Excl ships and electric power</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Japan’s machinery orders rose by 6% in September. Core machinery orders spurted by 10.5%. Foreign demand is the whole of the pickup as domestic orders fell by 5.4% while foreign orders rose by 25.9% both in September. The three month [...]

Japan Machinery Orders Dig Out

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings
&amp; Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that job availability improved
during September by 2.4% from August. The rise in the number
of job openings followed a 0.6% August uptick that was
revised from the initial report of a slight decline. Despite these
improvements, however, openings were off 25.9% from September of last
year. The series dates back to December 2000.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">

Factory sector job openings rose sharply for the second
consecutive month but they
remained down 42.4% y/y. The recent rise in the actual
number of construction sector job openings paused last month. Though
still down 59.2% y/y in September, openings were roughly double the
series' low reached in February. The
level of professional &amp; business services job openings posted
its second consecutive monthly gain (-25.2% y/y) and education
&amp; health sectors job openings (-12.3% y/y) reversed most of an
August decline. Openings in retail trade have risen slightly from their
April low (-9.8% y/y) while government sector job openings reflected
reduced tax revenues and fell to a new series' low (-38.1% y/y.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">

The job openings rate rose slightly from
the series' low reached this summer to 1.9%. These rates were down from
more than 3% in 2007. Recent gains have been led by the factory
&amp; construction sectors. The job openings rate is the
number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a
percent of total employment plus job openings.
The hires rate held steady at 3.1%, up
slightly from the May-June low of 3.0%, and still was nearly the lowest
in the series' short eight year history.The hires rate is the
number of hires during the month divided by employment.The
actual number of hires also was off its low but was still down by 11.0%
year-to-year. Factory sector hiring recently has picked up slightly but
remains off 14.1% y/y while construction sector hiring has moved
sideways since the winter (-3.3% y/y). Leisure &amp; hospitality
industry jobs fell 6.0% to a new series' low (19.8%) as did retail
sector hiring (-19.1%). In the professional &amp; business services
industry hires slipped after two strong monthly gains (-11.2% y/y)
while jobs in the education &amp; health services jobs gave back
the July increase but remained up 3.6% y/y.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The job separations rate remained at the
series' low of 3.3% with the actual number of separations off 11.2%
year-to-year. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges,
and other separations as well as retirements.
The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 but has followed
the movement in nonfarm payrolls, though the actual correlation between
the two series is low.
A description of the Jolts survey and the latest release from
the U.S. Department of Labor is available <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf">here</a>
and the figures are available in Haver's USECON
database.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB14/@EB14.HTM" style="color: white;">JOLTS (Job Openings &amp; Labor
&nbsp;Turnover Survey)</a> </th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Sept. '08</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="7">Job Openings, Total&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Rate (%)</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>3.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Total (000s)</td>
<td>2,480</td>
<td>2,423</td>
<td>3,346</td>
<td>3,224</td>
<td>4,382</td>
<td>4,606</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7">Hires, Total</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Rate (%)</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>41.1</td>
<td>46.1</td>
<td>47.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Total (000s)</td>
<td>4,010</td>
<td>4,040</td>
<td>4,505</td>
<td>56,486</td>
<td>63,666</td>
<td>64,879</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that job availability improved during September by 2.4% from August. The rise in the number of job openings followed a 0.6% August uptick that [...]

JOLTS: U.S. Job Openings Improved While Hiring Remains Steady

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111a.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">It appears
that consumer malaise continued early this month. During the latest
week, chain store sales slipped 0.1% after having been roughly
unchanged during October and down moderately in September.
Nevertheless, the sharp down-trend in sales of earlier this year
appears over.
The
ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using
the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores
of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney,
Sears and Wal-Mart.
 During the last ten
years there has been a 69% correlation between the year-to-year growth
in chain store sales and the growth in general merchandise retail sales.
The weekly figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">

Prospects for an improvement in sales continue to appear limited. The
leading indicator of sales has been roughly unchanged since the spring
of this year. On the other hand, a backslide in spending also seems
unlikely. The sharp declines of the leading indicator of sales from
2007 to early-2009 are over.
 This composite leading economic indicator
is compiled from four series: (1) the MBA's volume index of mortgage
applications 
for home purchase (2) the ABC News/Money magazine's survey of consumer
buying conditions (3) new filings for jobless benefits and (4) the
30-year government bond yield.
Employment growth: Cyclical
movements or structural change from the Federal Reserve Bank
of Chicago is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economicperspectives/ep_4qtr2009_part3_rissman.pdf">here
</a>.
The
Current State of the Economy and a Look to the Future (With Reference
to William &#8216;Sidestroke&#8217; Miles, W. Somerset Maugham, Don Ameche and
Kenneth Arrow) is the title of yesterday's speech by Dallas
Fed Governor Richard W. Fisher and it can be found <a href="http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2009/fs091110.cfm">here</a>


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">ICSC-UBS (SA,
1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/07/09</th>
<th scope="col">10/31/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain
Store Sales</td>
<td>490.9</td>
<td>491.3</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

It appears that consumer malaise continued early this month. During the latest week, chain store sales slipped 0.1% after having been roughly unchanged during October and down moderately in September. Nevertheless, the sharp down- [...]

Weekly Chain Store Sales Slip Following Several Lackluster Weeks

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111a.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">It appears
that consumer malaise continued early this month. During the latest
week, chain store sales slipped 0.1% after having been roughly
unchanged during October and down moderately in September.
Nevertheless, the sharp down-trend in sales of earlier this year
appears over.
The
ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using
the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores
of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney,
Sears and Wal-Mart.
 During the last ten
years there has been a 69% correlation between the year-to-year growth
in chain store sales and the growth in general merchandise retail
sales.
The weekly figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Prospects
for an improvement in sales continue to appear limited. The
leading indicator of sales has been roughly unchanged since the spring
of this year. On the other hand, a backslide in spending also seems
unlikely. The sharp declines of the leading indicator of sales from
2007 to early-2009 are over.
 This composite leading economic indicator
is compiled from four series: (1) the MBA's volume index of mortgage
applications 
for home purchase (2) the ABC News/Money magazine's survey of consumer
buying conditions (3) new filings for jobless benefits and (4) the
30-year government bond yield.
Employment growth: Cyclical
movements or structural change from the Federal Reserve Bank
of Chicago is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economicperspectives/ep_4qtr2009_part3_rissman.pdf">here
</a>.
The
Current State of the Economy and a Look to the Future (With Reference
to William &#8216;Sidestroke&#8217; Miles, W. Somerset Maugham, Don Ameche and
Kenneth Arrow) is the title of yesterday's speech by Dallas
Fed Governor Richard W. Fisher and it can be found <a href="http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2009/fs091110.cfm">here</a>


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">ICSC-UBS (SA,
1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/07/09</th>
<th scope="col">10/31/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain
Store Sales</td>
<td>490.9</td>
<td>491.3</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
JOLTS: U.S. Job Openings Improved
While Hiring Remains Steady 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> November 11, 2009


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings
&amp; Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that job availability improved
during September by 2.4% from August. The rise in the number
of job openings followed a 0.6% August uptick that was
revised from the initial report of a slight decline. Despite these
improvements, however, openings were off 25.9% from September of last
year. The series dates back to December 2000.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">

Factory sector job openings rose sharply for the second
consecutive month but they
remained down 42.4% y/y. The recent rise in the actual
number of construction sector job openings paused last month. Though
still down 59.2% y/y in September, openings were roughly double the
series' low reached in February. The
level of professional &amp; business services job openings posted
its second consecutive monthly gain (-25.2% y/y) and education
&amp; health sectors job openings (-12.3% y/y) reversed most of an
August decline. Openings in retail trade have risen slightly from their
April low (-9.8% y/y) while government sector job openings reflected
reduced tax revenues and fell to a new series' low (-38.1% y/y.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">

The job openings rate rose slightly from
the series' low reached this summer to 1.9%. These rates were down from
more than 3% in 2007. Recent gains have been led by the factory
&amp; construction sectors. The job openings rate is the
number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a
percent of total employment plus job openings.
The hires rate held steady at 3.1%, up
slightly from the May-June low of 3.0%, and still was nearly the lowest
in the series' short eight year history.The hires rate is the
number of hires during the month divided by employment.The
actual number of hires also was off its low but was still down by 11.0%
year-to-year. Factory sector hiring recently has picked up slightly but
remains off 14.1% y/y while construction sector hiring has moved
sideways since the winter (-3.3% y/y). Leisure &amp; hospitality
industry jobs fell 6.0% to a new series' low (19.8%) as did retail
sector hiring (-19.1%). In the professional &amp; business services
industry hires slipped after two strong monthly gains (-11.2% y/y)
while jobs in the education &amp; health services jobs gave back
the July increase but remained up 3.6% y/y.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The job separations rate remained at the
series' low of 3.3% with the actual number of separations off 11.2%
year-to-year. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges,
and other separations as well as retirements.
The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 but has followed
the movement in nonfarm payrolls, though the actual correlation between
the two series is low.
A description of the Jolts survey and the latest release from
the U.S. Department of Labor is available <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf">here</a>
and the figures are available in Haver's USECON
database.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB14/@EB14.HTM" style="color: white;">JOLTS (Job Openings &amp; Labor
&nbsp;Turnover Survey)</a> </th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Sept. '08</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="7">Job Openings, Total&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Rate (%)</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>3.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Total (000s)</td>
<td>2,480</td>
<td>2,423</td>
<td>3,346</td>
<td>3,224</td>
<td>4,382</td>
<td>4,606</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7">Hires, Total</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Rate (%)</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>41.1</td>
<td>46.1</td>
<td>47.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Total (000s)</td>
<td>4,010</td>
<td>4,040</td>
<td>4,505</td>
<td>56,486</td>
<td>63,666</td>
<td>64,879</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Japan Machinery Orders Dig Out 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> November 11, 2009


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111g.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Japan&#8217;s machinery orders rose by 6% in September. Core
machinery orders spurted by 10.5%. Foreign demand is the whole of the
pickup as domestic orders fell by 5.4% while foreign orders rose by
25.9% both in September.
The three month metrics show that core orders are still not
out of the woods; their three month growth rate is just 2.9% annualized
the same as their six month growth rate. Still these two horizon growth
rates are better than the -21.8% Year-over-year performance. Core
machinery orders are no longer falling but they are not rising very
rapidly.
The same sort of shortfalls exist across countries
Moreover Japan like Germany is benefiting from external
growth. Over three months, foreign demand is up at a 180% annual rate
that is an acceleration from a 60.4% annual rate over six months and
those numbers reverse the 42% drop in foreign demand Yr/Yr. Still,
domestic demand is wanting. Over three months it is up at a 19.9% pace,
better than the -1% rate over six months, and that is an improvement
from the drop of 14.9% Yr/Yr.
On balance Japan&#8217;s orders are on the mend. Even domestic
orders are showing a push into positive territory. But these series are
very volatile and given the volatility the recent domestic growth
figures are not very impressive. Much more impressive is the growth in
foreign orders that seems to be jumpstarting Japan as a whole. 

As the global economy turns to recovery one key challenge is
going to be to see if surplus and deficit countries begin to make
adjustments. Note that Japan and Germany, traditional exporting powers,
continue to get a lot of their stimulus from overseas. China&#8217;s trade
surplus was up this month. How is the US going to keep the lid on its
deficit if everyone else is running surpluses? Large structural trade
imbalances and the persisting investment flows they imply was one of
the main sources of instability in this past cycle. Is anything going
to change?

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" colspan="8">Japan
Machinery Orders</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">m/m %</td>
<td colspan="4">Saar %</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">SA</td>
<td>Sep-09</td>
<td>Aug-09</td>
<td>Jul-09</td>
<td>3-Mos</td>
<td>6-Mos</td>
<td>12-Mos</td>
<td>12-Mo Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>56.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-26.5%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Core Orders*</td>
<td>10.5%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>-9.3%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>-21.8%</td>
<td>-3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Total
Orders</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Foreign Demand</td>
<td>25.9%</td>
<td>-15.7%</td>
<td>21.8%</td>
<td>180.0%</td>
<td>60.4%</td>
<td>-42.2%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic demand</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>19.9%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-14.9%</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">* Excl ships
and electric power</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Weekly Chain Store Sales SlipFollowing Several Lackluster Weeks

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110g.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
There's
little to suggest that current inflation is a problem for the U.S.
economy as consumer &amp; producer prices remain weak.
Nevertheless, market signals suggest a future problem may be
developing. Higher gold prices are one of the more visible indicators
of pending inflationary power with its rise yesterday to an all-time
high of $1,107 per ounce. That strength has been accompanied by a drop
in the trade-weighted value of the U.S. dollar to its lowest level
since the summer of last year.U.S. monetary &amp; fiscal
stimulus has done much to generate this inflationary scenario. Low
interest rates and the propping up of the banking system have combined
to generate an excessive 60% y/y rise in the monetary base and 12% y/y
growth in the money supply (M1). Fiscal stimulus is more-than-evident
in the budget deficit which ballooned last year to $680 billion and is
projected by OMB to be around $1 trillion for the next ten years. Of
course, monetization of this deficit is the
worry.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110h.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The end of the U.S. recession
and of the recessions abroad have given rise to energy prices which
potentially could fuel higher inflation. Though they are down slightly
from the early-October high, crude oil prices at
an average $79.43 per barrel yesterday were up sharply from the
December low of $32.37. For all of last week the spot market price for
light sweet crude oil averaged $79.04 per barrel.Consumers have seen
this pricing strength, and worries abound. The pump price for
regular gasoline slipped last week to $2.67 per gallon which
was slightly below the June high. However, prices remain up from the
December low of $1.61 and this week the wholesale gasoline price
remained firm at $1.97. Though gas prices were down slightly from the
October high of $2.10, worries abound about the future for pricing
power. <img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110i.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The expected rate of inflation for the next year has risen to
3.2%, roughly double the December low according to the University of
Michigan's survey. Finally, higher gasoline prices have prompted a
cutback in driving. Following earlier strength, the demand for motor
gasoline fell slightly last week from one year earlier. The energy
price figures are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be
found in Haver's WEEKLY &amp; DAILY databases.
The gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY.
Natural gas prices also have strengthened ahead of the winter heating
season. They slipped last week to an average of $4.27 per mmbtu (-36.6%
y/y). Though they remained down by two-thirds from the high of
$13.19/mmbtu reached in early-July of last year, they are more than
double the low reached early last month.&nbsp; A bit of good news
for the pricing outlook occurred yesterday. Prices natural gas slipped
further to $3.87/mmbtu. 
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W4/@W4.HTM" style="color: black;">Weekly Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/09/09</th>
<th scope="col">10/19/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per
Gallon, Regular)</td>
<td>2.67</td>
<td>2.69</td>
<td>19.9%</td>
<td>3.25</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>2.57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Light Sweet Crude Oil,
WTI&nbsp; ($ per bbl.)</td>
<td>79.04</td>
<td>78.51</td>
<td>22.9%</td>
<td>100.16</td>
<td>72.25</td>
<td>66.12</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

There's little to suggest that current inflation is a problem for the U.S. economy as consumer & producer prices remain weak. Nevertheless, market signals suggest a future problem may be developing. Higher gold prices are one of the [...]

Inflationary Signals Abound;Gold & Oil Prices Strengthen While Dollar Weakens

Louise Curley

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">The
ZEW measure of confidence among German institutional investors and
analysts in the macroeconomic outlook six months ahead declined in
November to 51.1 from 56.0 in October.&nbsp; While the extent of
the decline was greater than expected, the optimists on the outlook
still outweigh the pessimists by 51.1%.&nbsp; A year ago the
pessimists outweighed the optimists by 53.5%.&nbsp; Moreover, the
current reading is well above the long term average of
26.9%.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Although
there has been some improvement in the
appraisal of current conditions, the majority of investors and analysts
still view current conditions negatively.&nbsp; The excess of
pessimists over optimists among the respondents declined to 65.6% in
November from 72.2% in October.&nbsp; The first chart shows the two
indicators:&nbsp; the macroeconomic outlook and current
conditions.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Some of
the reasons why the respondents have
become more cautious about the outlook&nbsp; may be found in their
appraisal of the profit prospects in the thirteen industries regularly
canvassed.&nbsp; In November, the respondents expected declines in
profits in seven of the industries and increases in six.&nbsp;
Declines in profits are expected in Banking, Insurance, Steel and
Metal, Consumption/Trade, Utilities, Telecommunication and Information
Technology.&nbsp; Increases in profits are expected in
Vehicles/Automotive, Chemicals/Pharmaceuticals, Electronics, Machinery,
Construction and Services.&nbsp; Selected industries where profits
are expected to decline are shown in the second chart and selected
industries where profits are expected to increase are shown in the
third chart.&nbsp; Profit expectations in the Banking and Insurance
industries have been declining since August and appear to have had the
biggest negative reappraisal.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">ZEW
INDICATORS (% Bal.)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 09</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 09</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 08</th>
<th scope="col">M/M Chg</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y Chg</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Macroeconomic Expectations 6
Months Ahead</td>
<td>51.1</td>
<td>56.0</td>
<td>-53.5</td>
<td>-4.9</td>
<td>104.6</td>
<td>-47.5</td>
<td>-3.0</td>
<td>22.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Current Conditions</td>
<td>-65.6</td>
<td>-72.2</td>
<td>-50.5</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>-15.2</td>
<td>7.3</td>
<td>75.9</td>
<td>18.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="9">PROFIT EXPECTATIONS</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Banking</td>
<td>24.7</td>
<td>31.1</td>
<td>-64.9</td>
<td>-9.4</td>
<td>89.6</td>
<td>-59.5</td>
<td>-3.5</td>
<td>47.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Insurance</td>
<td>16.4</td>
<td>19.8</td>
<td>-70.1</td>
<td>-3.4</td>
<td>86.5</td>
<td>-45.4</td>
<td>9.7</td>
<td>46.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Chemicals/Pharmaceuticals</td>
<td>34.8</td>
<td>31.6</td>
<td>-41.6</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>76.4</td>
<td>-8.6</td>
<td>35.3</td>
<td>48.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Vehicles/Automotive</td>
<td>-33.9</td>
<td>-40.9</td>
<td>-94.2</td>
<td>7.0</td>
<td>60.7</td>
<td>-55.6</td>
<td>8.6</td>
<td>16.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

</body></html>

The ZEW measure of confidence among German institutional investors and analysts in the macroeconomic outlook six months ahead declined in November to 51.1 from 56.0 in October. While the extent of the decline was greater than [...]

Inflationary Signals Abound;Gold& Oil Prices Strengthen While Dollar Weakens

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Andrew Cates

**The Global Monetary Policy Consensus**
The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey points to a notably more balanced global monetary policy outlook over the coming year. In contrast to the pronounced easing bias that dominated much of the past two years, expectations are now more symmetric, with a similar number of central banks projected to raise rates as to ease policy. Japan is seen delivering further tightening, while Canada is expected to initiate an interest rate hike in coming months. In Australia’s case, this tightening guidance was reinforced this week, with the Reserve Bank lifting its policy rate by 25 basis points. Elsewhere, and in contrast, the euro area, UK and US are expected to move in the opposite direction.

260205Z1.jpg

**US manufacturing activity**
The second chart underscores the recent improvement in US economic momentum, highlighted by an unexpected surge in the January ISM manufacturing PMI. After spending much of the past year hovering below the 50 threshold consistent with stagnation, the index jumped sharply back into expansionary territory, signalling a renewed pickup in industrial activity. This rebound has coincided with a broader run of stronger-than-anticipated US economic data, as reflected in the upswing in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index. Together, these developments point to a US economy that continues to display notable resilience, complicating expectations of monetary easing in the near term.

260205Z2.jpg

**US Bank Lending Standards and Financial Stress** 
The next chart turns to US financial conditions, highlighting the latest readings from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. The net proportion of banks tightening lending standards on corporate loans and mortgages is now more modest by historical standards, and well below the extremes seen during past episodes of financial stress. Some easing in credit headwinds has occurred alongside relatively subdued readings on the OFR Financial Stress Index, which continues to hover below its long-run average. Together, these indicators suggest that the US financial system has continued to avoid the kind of acute stress typically associated with sharp slowdowns in credit availability—helping to underpin the recent resilience in economic activity.

260205Z3.jpg

**Semiconductor Sales**
The fourth chart highlights the renewed surge in global semiconductor sales, with momentum strengthening sharply over recent months across the Americas, China and the broader Asia-Pacific region. After the cyclical downturn in 2022–23, sales have rebounded to fresh highs, reflecting a powerful revival in demand for advanced chips and related technologies. This upswing has taken place amid intense investor preoccupation with artificial intelligence, with expectations that AI adoption will drive a sustained wave of capital spending on data centres, cloud infrastructure and high-performance computing. In contrast, semiconductor sales in Europe remain comparatively subdued, reflecting the region’s smaller footprint in high-end chip manufacturing, weaker industrial demand, and the ongoing impact of slower economic growth. While semiconductors are inherently cyclical, markets have increasingly interpreted the current rebound elsewhere as structural rather than purely cyclical—underpinned by the belief that AI represents a transformative and durable source of demand growth.

260205Z4.jpg

**Large-Scale AI Models**
The next chart illustrates the rapid proliferation of large-scale AI models globally, with newly updated data for 2025 pointing to a further sharp acceleration in development activity. The United States continues to lead by a wide margin, while China has also seen a steep rise in model deployment in recent years, underscoring the intensifying technological competition between the two economies. Growth in the UK and other regions has been more modest by comparison, highlighting the increasingly concentrated nature of AI innovation. Taken together with the surge in semiconductor sales, these trends help explain the market’s strong preoccupation with AI as a potential driver of future productivity and investment cycles—although the geographic concentration of activity also raises questions about the uneven distribution of any resulting economic gains.

260205Z5.jpg

**An AI Bubble?** 
The final chart draws on the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts special questions, highlighting market participants’ perceptions of the economic gains likely to be delivered by artificial intelligence. While a sizeable share of respondents still believe that financial markets may be overestimating AI’s potential benefits, an increasing proportion now judge current expectations to be broadly accurate, with only a small minority viewing the gains as underestimated. Notably, this represents a softening in scepticism compared with the survey results from last month, when concerns about excessive market optimism were more pronounced. The shift suggests a growing acceptance that AI-related investment and innovation could translate into meaningful economic impacts—though uncertainty remains high around the scale, timing and distribution of these gains.

260205Z6.jpg

Financial markets have experienced renewed gyrations in recent weeks, as shifting geopolitical risks, questions around Federal Reserve independence, renewed talk of US dollar “debasement,” and ongoing enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence have combined to drive volatility across asset classes. These cross-currents have also contributed to a degree of rotation away from high-flying technology stocks, as investors reassess valuations and the timing of anticipated AI-driven gains. Against this backdrop, the charts in this week’s COTW highlight several important themes. Policy rate expectations now appear more balanced globally, marking a clear shift away from the one-sided easing bias of the past two years (chart 1), even as resilient US data—underscored by the unexpected jump in the January ISM index and a run of positive economic surprises—continues to complicate the outlook for monetary easing (chart 2). At the same time, US financial conditions remain relatively benign, with limited evidence of widespread credit stress or aggressive tightening in lending standards (chart 3). Meanwhile, the sharp rebound in semiconductor sales and the accelerating rollout of large-scale AI models underscore why investors remain so focused on the AI narrative, even as Europe lags behind due to weaker industrial momentum and a smaller footprint in advanced chip production (charts 4 and 5). Finally, while some scepticism about AI’s ultimate economic impact persists, the latest survey results suggest a moderation in concerns that markets are materially overestimating its gains (chart 6). Taken together, these developments paint a picture of a US economy that remains more resilient than many had anticipated, set against a financial landscape increasingly shaped by powerful—if sometimes competing—narratives around geopolitics, policy, and technological transformation.

Charts of the Week: Balanced Policy, Resilient Data and AI Narratives

260206E.jpg

With the December report, Germany’s production and some of the early European industrial production data reveal a good deal of chaos in terms of the embedded trends. On the month, German industrial production fell by 1.9%, with consumer goods output up by 0.5%, capital goods output falling by 5.3%, and intermediate goods output falling by 1.2%. Among the early reporters in the monetary union—France, Spain, and Portugal—only Spain showed an increase in manufacturing IP in December; however, Spanish industrial production is notoriously volatile.

**Broader IP trends in Germany and elsewhere in Europe**
As for other early industrial production reporters, both Sweden and Norway showed strong-to-solid gains in December and each of them showed two-months of gains in a row. Beyond that, sequential growth rates from 12-months to six-months to three-months show accelerating growth in German consumer goods output against decelerating growth for intermediate goods. Real manufacturing output and real sales show mixed results- no clear trends; however, real manufacturing orders in Germany are off the map strong. 

**German manufacturing/industrial Surveys**
German industrial surveys from the IFO for manufacturing shows persistent weakening as well as for IFO manufacturing expectations, and in the EU Commission industrial index in the last three months. More broadly, Germany shows some modest but ongoing step up all of these based on average levels from 12-months to six-months to three-months for IFO expectations and the EU Commission industrial readings with mixed results for other survey readings.

**IP trends in Europe**
For the early reporting EMU members France, Spain, and Portugal, who report industrial production trends, each show mixed monthly trends against ongoing decelerations for manufacturing output over the broader sequential periods (12-month, to 6-month, to 3-month). However, for other Europe, Sweden and Norway, manufacturing trends are steadily accelerating on this broader timeline.

**A feeling of ‘Deja- What?’**
These combinations of opposed trends mixed with a lack of trends leave us with this sense of confusion about what's going on in manufacturing. For Germany, the extreme strength in orders is reassuring since orders should be forward-looking rather than backward-looking or even contemporaneous. But orders can also be a fickle series and so we'll have to watch it to see if the trends for German orders hold up.

**Current quarter-What’s been happening now**
In addition, current quarter growth for Germany actually looks quite good with industrial production up 3.7% at an annual rate in the current quarter, led by output increases in manufacturing against a decline in the intermediate goods output. Real orders in the quarter are surging at a 44% growth rate, while real sales in manufacturing only had a 0.1% uptick at an annual rate. The industrial indicators for Germany in the quarter show weakness or flatness with the only exception being IFO manufacturing expectations that advanced by a small amount. The three EMU members who report industrial production data show positive growth in the just-completed quarter except for Portugal where industrial production is falling at a 2.9% rate in the fourth quarter. Sweden and Norway, European countries but not monetary union members, show a strong 22% annual rate gain in Sweden against the 3% annual rate decline in Norway.

260206.jpg

**Rankings**
**How growth rates stack up…**
Moving away from short-term trends, the rankings of growth rates of these various metrics using 12-month growth rates on data back to 2006, show below-median growth rates for German industrial production and all three of its major sectors. All of them have rankings below the 50% mark where the median resides. Germany’s manufacturing output growth rate is below its median as is the growth of real sales; and once again real manufacturing orders break out and show a stunning 90th percentile standing, extremely strong compared to other growth rates on this period.

**Indicator rankings are poor**
However, the survey based industrial indicators for Germany, ranked based on their index levels, are all extremely weak and much weaker than German sector or other German metrics. The strongest indicator reading is the 29th percentile standing for IFO manufacturing expectations while the current ZEW index, IFO manufacturing index, and the EU Commission industrial readings, all reside below their 15th percentile. The survey rankings suggest that industrial sentiment is in much worse shape than activity and growth.

**IP elsewhere in Europe**
However, the growth ranking of manufacturing industrial production for the reporting EMU members and other European members are all quite solid, with percentile standings ranging from the 66th up to the 93rd percentile.

**Summing up**
From these data, Germany emerges as the weak economy compared with historic norms based on industrial production growth and indicator readings. However, there's a glimpse of positivity from the growth of real orders, and at the same time, some concern about ongoing sentiment for manufacturing in Germany as distinct from actual performance.

Germany

German IP Reveals Chaotic Trends

Winnie Tapasanun

260205X15.jpg

260205Y15.jpg

**Total job openings** fell 5.6% m/m (-12.9% y/y) to 6.542 million in December after a downwardly revised 7.0% decline to 6.928 million in November (previously -4.1% m/m; 7.146 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. December marked the third consecutive m/m fall and the lowest level since September 2020. The job openings rate declined to 3.9% in December, the lowest since April 2020, from 4.2% in November, remaining below a record-high 7.4% in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings. Significantly, the drop in job openings also lowered the **ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals** to 0.872 in December—the lowest since March 2021—from 0.890 in November, down from 1.085 in December 2024 and a pre-pandemic 1.211 in February 2020. A reading of 0.872 implies there were about 0.87 open jobs per unemployed person—indicating fewer openings than unemployed workers. December was the fifth time in six months that this ratio remained below 1.0.

**Private sector job openings** fell 6.8% (-12.5% y/y) to 5.804 million in December after a 6.6% fall to 6.227 million in November, registering the third successive m/m decline and the lowest level since September 2020. The private sector job openings rate fell to 4.1% in December, the lowest since April 2020, from 4.4% in November. The December m/m decline in private sector openings reflected drops of 27.7% (-36.9% y/y) in financial activities, 20.2% (-25.5% y/y) in professional & business services, 14.4% (-5.1% y/y) in trade, transportation & utilities, and 5.2% (-12.4% y/y) in private educational & health services. To the upside, private sector openings in the following categories rose m/m in December: other services (21.1%; 11.0% y/y), mining & lodging (17.6%; 0.0% y/y), information (13.5%; -4.7% y/y), manufacturing (8.5%; 0.5% y/y), leisure & hospitality (7.5%; -17.2% y/y), and construction (2.8%; 42.4% y/y). Meanwhile, government job openings rose 5.3% (-15.6% y/y) in December, the first m/m rise in three months, after a 10.6% drop in November.

**Total hiring** rebounded 3.4% (-1.5% y/y) to 5.293 million in December, the first m/m increase since September, following a 4.6% decrease to 5.121 million in November. The hiring rate edged up to 3.3% in December from 3.2% in November, though it remained below pre-pandemic levels. **Private sector hiring** rose 3.1% (-0.4% y/y) to 4.978 million in December, the third m/m rise in four months, after a 4.0% decline to 4.826 million in November. The private sector hiring rate rose to 3.7% in December from 3.5% in November, the same as in October and September. The December m/m increase in private sector hiring was led by a 32.1% jump (42.3% y/y) in information, followed by gains of 24.0% (-4.6% y/y) in financial activities, 23.5% (0.0% y/y) in mining & lodging, 6.5% (-4.8% y/y) in private educational & health services, 4.2% (-4.9% y/y) in trade, transportation & utilities, 3.6% (6.1% y/y) in construction, 3.4% (7.9% y/y) in leisure & hospitality, and 1.8% (-4.3% y/y) in manufacturing. To the downside, private sector hiring in professional & business services (-5.2%; +0.5% y/y) and other services (-4.3%; -16.5% y/y) declined m/m in December. Meanwhile, government hiring rebounded 6.4% (-16.3% y/y) in December, the first m/m rise since September, following a 13.5% drop in November.

**Total separations** rose 2.1% (3.3% y/y) to 5.251 million in December after a 1.5% rise to 5.144 million in November, marking the third m/m increase in four months and the highest level since September. The total separations rate edged up to 3.3% after holding at 3.2% in November and October. Private sector separations rose 1.6% (4.2% y/y) to 4.932 million in December, the highest level since June, while government sector separations jumped 10.4% (-9.1% y/y) to 319,000 following two consecutive m/m declines. **Total quits** (voluntary separations initiated by the employee) increased 0.3% (3.5% y/y) to 3.204 million in December, the third m/m rise in four months and the highest level since June, after a 7.4% rebound in November. The quits rate (a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs) held at 2.0% in December and November, slightly below 2.3% in February 2020. Private sector quits eased 0.2% (+4.5% y/y) following an 8.4% November rebound. **Layoffs and discharges** (involuntary separations initiated by the employer) increased 3.6% (5.6% y/y) to 1.762 million in December, up for the third time in four months, after an 8.1% drop in November. The layoffs & discharges rate remained at 1.1% in December and November, marginally below 1.3% in February 2020. Private sector layoffs grew 4.3% (7.8% y/y) following a 7.3% November decrease.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

260205C15.jpg

260205D15.jpg

- Job openings down 5.6% (-12.9% y/y) to 6.542 mil., third straight m/m decline.
- Hiring up 3.4% (-1.5% y/y) to 5.293 mil., first m/m increase since September.
- Separations rise to a three-month high; quits reach a six-month high; layoffs rebound.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings Drop to Lowest Level Since Sept. ’20; Hiring Rebounds in December

Sandy Batten

260205A2.jpg

260205B2.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped 22,000 to 231,000 in the week ended January 31 following an unrevised 209,000 in the prior week. The four-week average rose to 212,250 from 206,250. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for 213,000 claims to have been filed. Winter Storm Fern and the accompanying very cold temperatures could have provided a temporary boost. Historically speaking, claims remain at low levels.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—increased by 25,000 to 1.844 million in the week ending January 24, from a downwardly revised 1.819 million in the prior week (previously 1.827 million). The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of January 24, unchanged from the previous eight weeks.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending January 17, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (2.83%), New Jersey (2.77%), Massachusetts (2.67%), Washington (2.54%), and Minnesota (2.45%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), North Carolina (0.42%), Louisiana (0.43%), Alabama (0.46%), and Arkansas (0.47). Rates in other notable states include Illinois (2.15%), California, (2.08%), New York (2.02%), Pennsylvania (1.91%), and Texas (1.09%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

260205C2.jpg

260205D2.jpg

- New claims jumped 22,000 to 231,000, the highest level since December 6.
- Continuing claims rose to 1.844 million from 1.819 million.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Surged in Latest Week

260205E.jpg

German real orders in December adjusted for inflation rose strongly again, gaining 7.8% month-to-month after rising 5.7% month-to-month in November. Foreign orders were up by 5.6% in December compared to 5.2% in November. Domestic orders surged by 10.7% in December after rising 6.4% in November and 10% in October.

**Real sales**
Real sales were mixed in December with overall sales falling 1.4% month-to-month mostly on weakness in capital goods sales.

**Broad categorical acceleration**
Many flows are accelerating this month. Sequential growth rates show acceleration. Total real orders accelerate from a year ago, to the current year, to six-months, and to three-months. Sales growth rates for consumer goods, consumer nondurables, and intermediate goods all show accelerations in gear. The exceptions are foreign orders that are not as strong over six months compared to their 12-month growth. And on the sales side, consumer durables sales and capital goods sales are weak.

**Quarter-to-quarter**
Quarterly annualized growth is complete for Q4 with this report. Foreign orders are the ‘weak flow’ expanding at a 13.6% annual rate – certainly not a weak growth rate. But domestic real orders are up at an astounding 101.9% annual rate. The net impact on the total real orders growth is to lift it to a pace of 44.1%. 

**Order ranking is very strong**
The table provides two rankings: one based on the level of variables and the other based on its year-on-year growth. The rankings this month for real orders overall, foreign, and domestic orders all reside in their top 80th to 90th percentiles- extremely strong based on level or growth. Sales do not follow suit. This gives us some reason to suspect that there is some lumpiness involved in the manufacturing data as distinct from strength. That will be something to watch. Overall mining and manufacturing sales growth is essentially at its historic median at a rank of 49.8. However, capital goods, intermediate goods and manufacturing sales all have rankings at or above their medians - as high as a 61-percentile standing for capital goods.

**Industrial confidence**
Industrial confidence for Germany, France, Italy and Spain (the EU’s big-four economies) show rankings based on these survey levels that are much lower at the 11th percentile for Germany, the 42nd and 36th percentiles, for France and Italy, respectively. Spain scores better with a 61.8 percentile standing on its industrial confidence measure. 

On balance, there is now an accelerating profile that is broad in sales trends and especially strong order trends. Perhaps Europe, under the pressure to stimulate its miliary capabilities, has a core of demand to help drive output ahead more consistently. This is something to watch in the coming months.