Global| Feb 10 2010U.S. Trade Deficit Hits 12-Month High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Higher oil prices and economic recovery were December's double-punch to the U.S. trade accounts. Together, they raised imports and increased the international trade deficit to $40.2B which was the highest level in twelve months. The [...]
Higher
oil prices and economic recovery were December's double-punch to the
U.S. trade accounts. Together, they raised imports and increased the
international trade deficit to $40.2B which was the highest level in
twelve months. The rise was from November's unrevised deficit of
$36.4B. The latest figure was quite a bit higher than Consensus
expectations for a deficit of $35.5B.
Imports rose 4.8% in part due to a rise in crude oil prices to $73.20 per barrel which was the highest price since October of 2008. In addition the quantity of crude oil imports jumped 14.3% (-17.5% y/y) to the highest level since March. U.S. economic recovery also was evident in a 3.3% increase (3.0% y/y) in real nonoil imports which was the fifth increase in six months. Real non-auto capital goods imports jumped 4.6% (2.5% y/y) after a 3.9% November increase. Real automotive vehicles & parts imports also were strong with a 9.6% increase (18.9% y/y) and have nearly doubled since May. Real nonauto consumer goods imports were unchanged (3.4% y/y) following earlier strength since June. Finally, services imports jumped 1.1% (-1.5% y/y) and have risen a firm 6.5% since March. U.S. travels abroad rose 1.8% (-5.4% y/y recouping the November decline while passenger fares jumped 2.9% (-20.5% y/y).
Again reflecting the competitive value of the dollar, nominal exports jumped 3.3% m/m and by 17.3% from the April low. More impressive was the 4.4% monthly increase in real merchandise exports which are up 18.7% from their low. Real capital goods exports jumped 5.2% in December (0.6% y/y) and have risen 14.9% from their low. Real exports of non-auto consumer goods also posted a firm 2.1% gain and have risen 16.2% from the January low. Real automotive exports surged 10.2% in December and by 17.4% during the last twelve months. Exports of services slipped 0.1% (-0.3% y/y).
By country, the trade deficit with mainland China lessened to $18.1B, its least since April. The deficit has narrowed from its peak of $27.9B in October of 2008. Exports to China rose nearly two-thirds y/y while imports rose just 5.7%. With Japan, the trade deficit improved modestly to $4.6B from $5.3B one year earlier as exports rose 9.7% and imports fell 2.7%. With the European Union, the trade deficit was stable m/m at $6.4B as exports declined 3.7% y/y and imports fell 4.5%.
The
international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database.
Detailed figures are available in the USINT
database.
Is the International Role of the Dollar Changing? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| Foreign Trade | December | November | October | Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $40.2B | $36.4B | $33.2B | $41.9B (12/08) | $380.7B | $695.9B | $701.4B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | 3.3% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 7.4% | -15.0% | 11.2% | 13.2% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 4.6 | -23.3 | 7.6 | 6.0 |
| Petroleum | 14.8 | 0.3 | -10.6 | 24.5 | -44.1 | 37.0 | 9.4 |
| Nonpetroleum Goods | 3.8 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | -21.0 | 1.5 | 4.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
