U.S. Factory Orders Rebound in November; Third M/M Gain in Four Months
Summary
- Factory orders +2.7% m/m in Nov.; +5.4% y/y, largest y/y increase since June.
- Durable goods +5.3% m/m; nondurable goods orders flat; shipments marginally down.
- Transportation orders +14.7% m/m, led by a 97.6% surge in nondefense aircraft orders.
- Unfilled orders +1.4%, biggest of four straight m/m gains.
- Inventories +0.1% after October’s flat reading.
Total factory orders rose a more-than-expected 2.7% m/m in November after a 1.2% drop in October and a 0.2% increase in September, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. November registered the third m/m rise in four months following m/m declines in July and June. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.6% m/m November increase. The year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 5.4% in November, the fastest pace since June, up from 2.3% in October and -0.9% in November 2024, while remaining well below a peak of 39.6% in April 2021. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts surged 97.6% m/m in November after falling 17.9% in October and 6.8% in September. Factory orders excluding defense rebounded 3.2% (5.3% y/y), the first m/m increase since August, after a 0.8% October decline. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector grew 0.2% (1.0% y/y), the second m/m increase in three months, after a 0.1% October easing.
Durable goods orders rose 5.3% (12.3% y/y) in November, up for the third time in four months, following a 2.1% decline in October (matching +5.3% m/m in the advance report on January 26). The November rise reflected m/m increases across nearly all major categories, led by a 14.7% rebound in transportation equipment (the third m/m rise in four months and the largest since May; +29.1% y/y), followed by increases of 1.0% (6.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 0.9% (5.2% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.4% (1.4% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.3% (7.7% y/y) in machinery, and 0.1% (4.4% y/y) in primary metals. Meanwhile, orders for computers & electronic products were virtually unchanged (+5.1% y/y) after two consecutive m/m rises.
Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, held steady (-1.3% y/y) in November following a 0.3% decline in October. The flat November reading reflected m/m increases of 5.0% (-9.3% y/y) in leather & allied products, 0.8% (3.6% y/y) in chemical products, 0.5% (-1.5% y/y) in textile mills, 0.3% (1.3% y/y) in apparel, 0.3% (-0.4% y/y) in printing, 0.2% (0.3% y/y) in paper products, and 0.2% (0.6% y/y) in plastics & rubber products. To the downside, the following nondurable goods shipments declined m/m in November: textile products (-1.7%; -0.1% y/y), petroleum & coal products (-1.1%; -12.2% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (-0.6%; +3.8% y/y), and food products (-0.1%; -0.3% y/y).
Total shipments dipped 0.1% (+2.1% y/y) in November following a 0.1% uptick in October and two successive m/m declines. Excluding transportation, shipments rose 0.2% (0.6% y/y), the second m/m rise in three months, after a 0.1% October dip. Shipments of durable goods industries fell 0.3% (+5.6% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after a 0.5% October increase. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments declines of 1.7% (+10.3% y/y) in transportation equipment, 0.1% (+3.7% y/y) in primary metals, and 0.1% (-3.3% y/y) in wood products. In contrast, the following durable goods shipments rose m/m in November: furniture & related products (1.3%; 2.6% y/y), computers & electronic products (0.9%; 4.9% y/y), fabricated metal products (0.9%; 3.5% y/y), miscellaneous durable goods (0.6%; 2.6% y/y), nonmetallic mineral products (0.5%; 1.0% y/y), and machinery (0.2%; 5.8% y/y). Meanwhile, durable goods shipments for electrical equipment, appliances & components were essentially unchanged (4.2% y/y) in November after five straight m/m rises.
Unfilled orders advanced 1.4% (9.3% y/y) in November, the largest of four consecutive m/m gains, on top of a 0.2% increase in October. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.3% (1.3% y/y), up for the fourth straight month, after a 0.3% October rise. Backlogs of durable goods increased 1.4% (9.3% y/y) in November, led by m/m gains of 2.0% (14.7% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.7% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, partially offset by a 0.1% decline (-0.8% y/y) in computers & electronic products.
Inventories edged up 0.1% (1.1% y/y) in November after holding steady in October and declining 0.1% in both September and August. Excluding transportation, inventories ticked up 0.1% (1.2% y/y), the sixth m/m increase in seven months, after no change in October. Durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (1.5% y/y) following a 0.2% October rise and two successive 0.1% declines, while nondurable goods inventories inched up 0.1% (0.3% y/y) after a 0.2% October decrease.
The factory sector data are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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