Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081223j.jpg" width="353">
New single-family homes fell 2.9% m/m during November to 407,000 after a downwardly revised 5.2% October decline. The level of sales in November was off by 71% from the July 2005 peak and sales fell short of Consensus expectations for 415,000.
The m/m change in sales continued mixed by region. Sales in the West rose 11.0% and reversed their October decline. Sales in the Northeast also were up by 14.3% for the second consecutive monthly increase. Working the other way were sales in the Midwest which fell 16.4% to a new low and sales in the South also fell 7.1%, also to a new low.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081223k.jpg" width="353">
The median price for a new single-family home gained back more than half of an October decline. The rise to $220,400, nevertheless, left them still off 11.5% y/y. For October, the decline in home prices about matched the 7.5% drop reported by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (FHFA). The FHFA figures, (formerly the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), as well as the Census Dept. figures, are available in Haver&#39;s USECON database. 
The number of new homes for purchase again fell sharply, by 7.0% (-25.5% y/y). That reduced the inventory of unsold homes to the lowest level since early-2004. In each of the country&#39;s regions, the inventory is down 20% to 30% during the last year.
The month&#39;s supply of new homes for sale was about unchanged m/m at 11.5.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">US New Homes</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y (%)</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Sales (SAAR, 000s)</td>
<td>407</td>
<td>419</td>
<td>-35.3</td>
<td>768</td>
<td>1,049</td>
<td>1,279</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>35</td>
<td>&nbsp;-27.3</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>81</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>-34.9</td>
<td>118</td>
<td>161</td>
<td>203</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>210</td>
<td>226</td>
<td>-38.1</td>
<td>408</td>
<td>559</td>
<td>638</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>101</td>
<td>91</td>
<td>-32.2</td>
<td>178</td>
<td>266</td>
<td>356</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Median Price (NSA, $)</td>
<td>220,400</td>
<td>214,600</td>
<td>-11.5</td>
<td>243,742</td>
<td>243,067</td>
<td>234,208</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

New single-family homes fell 2.9% m/m during November to 407,000 after a downwardly revised 5.2% October decline. The level of sales in November was off by 71% from the July 2005 peak and sales fell short of Consensus expectations for [...]

U.S. New-Home Sales Fell During October; Lowest Since 1991

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081223h.jpg" width="353">
U.S. existing home sales fell 8.6% last month versus October to pull sales down to 4,490 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. The decline during the prior month was revised slightly and the latest was much greater than Consensus expectations for sales of 4.93M homes. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
Median home prices fell 2.8% (NSA) last month, about as they did during October and it was the fifth consecutive monthly drop. That pulled the y/y comparison to -13.2%. Prices have fallen 21.0% since their peak in June 2007.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081223i.jpg" width="353">
Sales of existing single-family homes followed a similar pattern as the total and fell 8.0% after a revised 4.6% during October. Sales of existing homes are down by one-third from their peak in mid-2005.
The latest drop in single-family home sales was to the lowest since 1997, is from a trend line this year that had been roughly stable and moving sideways.
By region, home sales in the Northeast led last month&#39;s decline with a 12.0% drop and they were down nearly twenty percent from last year. In the South sales also were quite weak as they posted a 10.9% drop. In the West sales sales fell about they did during October, by 4.3%. Sales in the Midwest fell 7.4%, like they did during October.
The number of unsold homes (condos &amp; single-family) on the market ticked up 0.1%, about as they did year-to-year. At the current sales rate there as a 11.2 months&#39; supply on the market which was near the series&#39; high.. For single-family homes the inventory rose m/m to a 10.6 months supply at the current sales rate, also near the high.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Existing Home Sales (Thous)</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">y/y %</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">November &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>4,490</td>
<td>-10.6</td>
<td>4,910</td>
<td>5,020</td>
<td>5,672</td>
<td>6,508</td>
<td>7,076</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>730</td>
<td>-18.0</td>
<td>830</td>
<td>890</td>
<td>1,008</td>
<td>1,090</td>
<td>1,168</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>1,000</td>
<td>-16.0</td>
<td>1,080</td>
<td>1,190</td>
<td>1,331</td>
<td>1,491</td>
<td>1,589</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>1,640</td>
<td>-17.6</td>
<td>1,840</td>
<td>1,990</td>
<td>2,240</td>
<td>2,576</td>
<td>2,704</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>1,120</td>
<td>17.9</td>
<td>1,170</td>
<td>950</td>
<td>1,093</td>
<td>1,353</td>
<td>1,617</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Single-Family</td>
<td>4,020</td>
<td>-8.8</td>
<td>4,370</td>
<td>4,410</td>
<td>4,958</td>
<td>5,703</td>
<td>6,181</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Median Price, Total, $</td>
<td>181,300</td>
<td>-13.2</td>
<td>186,500</td>
<td>208,800</td>
<td>216,617</td>
<td>222,000</td>
<td>218,217</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

U.S. existing home sales fell 8.6% last month versus October to pull sales down to 4,490 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. The decline during the prior month was revised slightly and the latest was much [...]

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell; Single-Family Sales Lowest Since 1997

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081223e.jpg" width="353">
Regular gasoline prices were roughly unchanged last week at $1.65 per gallon, according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey. Yesterday, the spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell sharply to $0.88 per gallon.
Weekly gasoline prices can be found in Haver&#39;s WEEKLY database. Daily prices are in the DAILY database.
Though gasoline prices are down, that has done little to drive up product demand. The U.S. Department of Energy reported that the demand for gasoline fell by 3.5% y/y, nearly the fastest rate of decline since late-1995 (the latest four weeks versus the same four weeks last year). The demand for all petroleum products also fell 4.9% y/y.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081223f.jpg" width="353">
These DOE figures are available in Haver&#39;s OILWKLY database.
The price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell last week by five dollars from the prior week&#39;s average to $39.65 per barrel, down by two-thirds since the peak in July of $145.66. In futures trading yesterday, the one-month price for crude oil was $39.91.
Last week, prices for natural gas were unchanged w/w at $5.67 per mmbtu (-20.7% y/y). The latest average price was 50% below natural gas prices in early-July of $13.19/mmbtu.
The Yield Curve from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available <a href="http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2009/0109/01monpol.cfm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W4/@W4.HTM">Weekly Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/22/08</th>
<th scope="col">12/15/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon)</td>
<td>1.65</td>
<td>1.66</td>
<td>-44.5%</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>2.57</td>
<td>2.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI&nbsp; ($ per bbl.)</td>
<td>39.65</td>
<td>44.71</td>
<td>-56.6%</td>
<td>72.25</td>
<td>66.12</td>
<td>56.60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Regular gasoline prices were roughly unchanged last week at $1.65 per gallon, according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey. Yesterday, the spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell sharply to $0.88 per gallon. [...]

U.S. Gasoline Prices Down Again

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081223a.jpg" width="353">
As roughly indicated in the prior two reports, 3Q08 U.S. real GDP growth slipped 0.5%. The latest figure matched Consensus expectations. The y/y rate of growth of 0.7% continued as the weakest since the end of the 2001 recession.
Corporate profits also were little revised and they posted a 1.2% drop and were down 9.2% y/y. Last quarter&#39;s decline was the seventh drop of the last eight quarters and the y/y change was the weakest since the 2001 recession. The financial sector&#39;s travails continued to lead profits lower. They were revised weaker and down by roughly one-third from the year ago level. Domestic nonfinancial corporations fell a little-revised 4.3% y/y. Finally, repatriated earnings from abroad rose 6.2% y/y which was slightly better than reported initially.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081223b.jpg" width="353">
Real U.S. final sales to domestic purchasers were little revised and they posted a 2.2% drop. That remained the largest quarterly decline since the end of the 1990-91 recession. The year-to-year dip of 0.2% was the first decline since 1991.
Personal consumption expenditures fell at a 3.8% annual rate (-0.2% y/y). Spending on autos &amp; light trucks collapsed at a 26.6% annual rate (-15.0% y/y). Real spending on furniture &amp; other household equipment fell at an 8.2% rate but they were still up 2.6% y/y. Real spending on apparel fell at a 13.3% clip (-1.1% y/y) and that more than reversed a 2Q jump. Spending on consumer services slipped 0.1% and the y/y gain of 1.1% was the weakest since 1981.
Residential construction fell a little revised 16.1% (-20.6% y/y) and subtracted 0.7% points from GDP growth. <img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081223c.jpg" width="353">
The 1.7% decline in business fixed investment was little revised (+1.6% y/y). Equipment investment fell at a 7.5% rate (-3.1% y/y), the third consecutive quarter of decline while structures investment was firm again and rose at an upwardly revised 9.6% annual rate (11.2% y/y).
Inventory accumulation was little revised and added 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth after three consecutive quarters of subtraction.
An improved foreign trade deficit added the same 1.1 percentage points to U.S. growth as estimated last month and it remained the main source of lift to GDP growth. The addition was, however, almost one third of that in 2Q. Exports grew at a slower 3.0% annual rate (6.1% y/y), half that in 2Q. Growth in imports weakened with the slowdown in overall economic growth and they fell at a 3.5% annual rate (-3.5% y/y). It was the fifth quarterly decline in the last six.
Spending by governments was strong again and rose 5.8% (3.1% y/y). That was little revised and the quickest since early 2003.
The estimate of the GDP chain price index was lowered to a still-strong 3.9% (AR) gain. The downward revision was due to a lowered jump in the PCE price index to 4.3%. Capital spending prices rose at an accelerated 4.2% rate (2.2% y/y) while the residential investment price deflator was revised downward and declined at a 2.4% rate; down for the fourth straight quarter (-2.4% y/y).
Agricultural Markets and Food Price Inflation - A conference summary from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cfljanuary2009_258a.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM">Chained 2000$, % AR</a></th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;08 (Final)</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;08 (Preliminary)</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;08 (Advance)</th>
<th scope="col">2Q &#39;08</th>
<th scope="col">3Q Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>-1.5</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Final Sales</td>
<td>-1.3</td>
<td>-1.4</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Foreign Trade Effect</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Final Demand</td>
<td>-2.2</td>
<td>-2.3</td>
<td>-1.8</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chained GDP Price Index</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>2.7</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>3.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

As roughly indicated in the prior two reports, 3Q08 U.S. real GDP growth slipped 0.5%. The latest figure matched Consensus expectations. The y/y rate of growth of 0.7% continued as the weakest since the end of the 2001 recession. [...]

U.S. 3Q'08 GDP Growth Unrevised; Profit's Fall Little Changed

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081222e.jpg">
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank for November continued on a downtrend and remained in recession territory. The latest reading of -2.47 followed a short-lived October bounce back from two hurricanes. Since 1970 there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the index and the q/q change in real GDP.
The three-month moving average of the index of -2.49 was at its lowest level since January of 1982.
An index level at or below -0.70 typically has indicated negative U.S. economic growth. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth of roughly 3%.
The complete CFNAI report is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_december2008.pdf">here</a> and the historical data are available in Haver&#39;s SURVEYS database.<img align="right" border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081222f.jpg">
Each category of the index including employment, production, income, consumption &amp; housing made a negative contribution to the November index.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production &amp; income, the labor market, personal consumption &amp; housing, manufacturing &amp; trade sales, and inventories &amp; orders.
In a separate survey, the Chicago Fed indicated that its Midwest manufacturing index fell during October to its lowest level since 1997. The auto sector continued to lead the weakness but the steel and machinery components also were weak.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">Chicago Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">November &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>-2.47</td>
<td>-1.27</td>
<td>-0.44</td>
<td>-0.40</td>
<td>-0.01</td>
<td>0.28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; 3-Month Average</td>
<td>-2.49</td>
<td>-2.40</td>
<td>-0.49</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>&nbsp;--</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank for November continued on a downtrend and remained in recession territory. The latest reading of -2.47 followed a short-lived October bounce back from two [...]

Chicago Fed Index Well Into Recession Territory

Robert Brusca

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081222c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
A rapid deceleration&#8230;The sharp drop in the growth rate for
orders in the current quarter is telling of the rapidity with which
this slowdown has struck Europe. Orders in the fourth quarter are
falling at annual rates of 50% in Germany, 57% in France, 37% in Italy
and nearly 70% in the United Kingdom. This obvious bespeaks of a sharp
slowing for growth in 2008-Q4. 
 

Severe real sector hit&#8230; While the headlines have focused on
the financial sector and banking problems and, although German consumer
sentiment has been supported, the hit to EMU MFG has been severe. Both
the EMU MFG and Services PMIs have taken sharp drops. These barometers
precede the availability of authentic activity measures. The purchaser
type surveys are merely &#8216;indicators&#8217; While variables such as industrial
output and retail sales are the actual results. 
 

Orders are an actual forward-looking series&#8230; The orders series
is also an actual result and not simply an &#8216;indicator&#8217;. Orders, while
not actual activity are true figures corresponding to activity that
been contracted ahead. The orders data are available for October but
PMI data for December already are in hand &#8211;and they continue to be weak. 
 

The recognition lag... It has taken some time but Germany
seems to have come around to the idea of more stimulus. The drop in the
HICP for the Zone (bringing the Yr/Yr headline pace to 2.1%) may also
free up the ECB to become less tentative. Both orders and sales are all
falling and orders are falling with uniform and shocking weakness
across EMU. The dramatic policy moves and in the US have been rekindles
euro FX strength. Is that a good sign or a signal how far behind Europe
is in adopting needed stimulus? There should be no question about the
severity of the weakness in Europe. It&#8217;s not just a banking problem. 
 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr><th colspan="10" scope="col"> E-zone and UK Industrial Orders &amp; Sales Trends</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol"> Saar except m/m</td>
<td colspan="3">% m/m</td>
<td> Oct 08</td>
<td> Oct 08</td>
<td> Oct 08</td>
<td> Oct 07</td>
<td> Oct 06</td>
<td>Qtr-2 Date</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol"> Ezone Detail</td>
<td>Oct 08</td>
<td> Sep 08</td>
<td> Aug 08</td>
<td> 3-Mo</td>
<td> 6-mo</td>
<td> 12-mo</td>
<td> 12-mo</td>
<td> 12-mo</td>
<td> Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol"> MFG Sales</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-13.7%</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>-14.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">Capital</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>-4.1%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>-4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-5.6%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>-15.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="10">MFG Orders</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol"> Total Orders</td>
<td>-4.7%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>-38.1%</td>
<td>-26.1%</td>
<td>-14.4%</td>
<td>8.8%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
<td>-42.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol"> Countries:</td>
<td>Oct 08</td>
<td> Sep 08</td>
<td> Aug 08</td>
<td> 3-Mo</td>
<td> 6-mo</td>
<td> 12-mo</td>
<td> 12-mo</td>
<td> 12-mo</td>
<td> Qtr-2 Date</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Germany:</td>
<td>-6.8%</td>
<td>-8.0%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>-38.9%</td>
<td>-29.1%</td>
<td>-16.4%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>9.1%</td>
<td>-50.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">France:</td>
<td>-11.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-7.7%</td>
<td>-54.3%</td>
<td>-37.7%</td>
<td>-18.3%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
<td>-58.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>-33.1%</td>
<td>-18.6%</td>
<td>-10.1%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>12.7%</td>
<td>-37.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">UK(EU)</td>
<td>-28.3%</td>
<td>28.7%</td>
<td>-8.6%</td>
<td>-49.5%</td>
<td>-42.4%</td>
<td>-14.2%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>-69.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

A rapid deceleration…The sharp drop in the growth rate for orders in the current quarter is telling of the rapidity with which this slowdown has struck Europe. Orders in the fourth quarter are falling at annual rates of 50% in [...]

Orders Make Record Drop in Euro During October

Louise Curley

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081222a.jpg" width="353">
Japan announced today a 233 billion yen deficit in its foreign trade for the month of November. Monthly deficits in foreign trade are rare in Japan and this was the third deficit in the last four months. On a three month moving average of the seasonally unadjusted data, the results of the last few months are even more dramatic as can be seen in the first chart. These deficits of recent months are the first to have occurred since the late seventies and early eighties.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081222b.jpg" width="353">
Exports were 27% below November 2008 due in part to the slowing of world demand and also to the rise in the yen. The rise in the yen over the past few months is compared with the performance of the dollar, the euro and the U.K. pound in the second chart. Between August 7 and December 19 (The recent low for the yen and the most recent), the broad trade weighted yen appreciated 32%, while the euro was virtually unchanged, the dollar was up 10% and the pound was down 18%. While a higher yen might ordinarily lead to higher imports, the current low level of the propensity to consume in Japan has actually resulted in a decline of 14% in imports from a year ago.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">JAPAN&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 08</th>
<th scope="col">Oct&nbsp;&nbsp; 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Sep&nbsp; 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 08&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Trade Balance Total (Bil Yen)</td>
<td>-233</td>
<td>-68</td>
<td>86</td>
<td>-332</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Trade Balance USA&nbsp; (Bil Yen)</td>
<td>-696</td>
<td>-528</td>
<td>-764</td>
<td>-720</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Exports&nbsp; (Bil Yen)</td>
<td>5327</td>
<td>6924</td>
<td>7364</td>
<td>7050</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Imports&nbsp; (Bil Yen)</td>
<td>6660</td>
<td>6992</td>
<td>7278</td>
<td>7386</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Trade Weighted Exchange Rates (2000=100)</td>
<td>Aug&nbsp; 7</td>
<td>Dec&nbsp; 18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>% Chg&nbsp;</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">US Dollar</td>
<td>82.6</td>
<td>90.7</td>
<td>9.8</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro</td>
<td>139.3</td>
<td>139.6</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">UK Pound&nbsp;</td>
<td>94.5</td>
<td>77.9</td>
<td>-17.6</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Yen</td>
<td>83.9</td>
<td>110.4</td>
<td>31.8</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Japan announced today a 233 billion yen deficit in its foreign trade for the month of November. Monthly deficits in foreign trade are rare in Japan and this was the third deficit in the last four months. On a three month moving [...]

A Strong Yen And Falling World Demand Lead To Deficit In Japanese Foreign Trade

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250430N1.jpg

250430O1.jpg

Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

250430P1.jpg

250430Q1.jpg

Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

250430R1.jpg

250430S1.jpg

- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

250430A.jpg

250430B.jpg

High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

250430C.jpg

250430D.jpg

- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

250430F20.jpg

250430G20.jpg

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

250430F5.jpg

250430G5.jpg

The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

250430H5.jpg

250430I5.jpg

- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

250430J4.jpg

250430K4.jpg

The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

250430L4.jpg

250430M4.jpg

- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: 2008

Jump to:

U.S. New-Home Sales Fell During October; Lowest Since 1991

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell; Single-Family Sales Lowest Since 1997

U.S. Gasoline Prices Down Again

U.S. 3Q'08 GDP Growth Unrevised; Profit's Fall Little Changed

U.S. 3Q'08 GDP Growth Unrevised; Profit's Fall Little Changed

Chicago Fed Index Well Into Recession Territory

Orders Make Record Drop in Euro During October

A Strong Yen And Falling World Demand Lead To Deficit In Japanese Foreign Trade