Global| Dec 23 2008U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell; Single-Family Sales Lowest Since 1997
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. existing home sales fell 8.6% last month versus October to pull sales down to 4,490 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. The decline during the prior month was revised slightly and the latest was much [...]
U.S. existing home sales fell 8.6% last month versus October to pull sales down to 4,490 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. The decline during the prior month was revised slightly and the latest was much greater than Consensus expectations for sales of 4.93M homes. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
Median home prices fell 2.8% (NSA) last month, about as they did during October and it was the fifth consecutive monthly drop. That pulled the y/y comparison to -13.2%. Prices have fallen 21.0% since their peak in June 2007.
Sales of existing single-family homes followed a similar pattern as the total and fell 8.0% after a revised 4.6% during October. Sales of existing homes are down by one-third from their peak in mid-2005.
The latest drop in single-family home sales was to the lowest since 1997, is from a trend line this year that had been roughly stable and moving sideways.
By region, home sales in the Northeast led last month's decline with a 12.0% drop and they were down nearly twenty percent from last year. In the South sales also were quite weak as they posted a 10.9% drop. In the West sales sales fell about they did during October, by 4.3%. Sales in the Midwest fell 7.4%, like they did during October.
The number of unsold homes (condos & single-family) on the market ticked up 0.1%, about as they did year-to-year. At the current sales rate there as a 11.2 months' supply on the market which was near the series' high.. For single-family homes the inventory rose m/m to a 10.6 months supply at the current sales rate, also near the high.
| Existing Home Sales (Thous) | November | y/y % | October | November '07 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4,490 | -10.6 | 4,910 | 5,020 | 5,672 | 6,508 | 7,076 |
| Northeast | 730 | -18.0 | 830 | 890 | 1,008 | 1,090 | 1,168 |
| Midwest | 1,000 | -16.0 | 1,080 | 1,190 | 1,331 | 1,491 | 1,589 |
| South | 1,640 | -17.6 | 1,840 | 1,990 | 2,240 | 2,576 | 2,704 |
| West | 1,120 | 17.9 | 1,170 | 950 | 1,093 | 1,353 | 1,617 |
| Single-Family | 4,020 | -8.8 | 4,370 | 4,410 | 4,958 | 5,703 | 6,181 |
| Median Price, Total, $ | 181,300 | -13.2 | 186,500 | 208,800 | 216,617 | 222,000 | 218,217 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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