Global| Dec 23 2008U.S. New-Home Sales Fell During October; Lowest Since 1991
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New single-family homes fell 2.9% m/m during November to 407,000 after a downwardly revised 5.2% October decline. The level of sales in November was off by 71% from the July 2005 peak and sales fell short of Consensus expectations for [...]
New single-family homes fell 2.9% m/m during November to 407,000 after a downwardly revised 5.2% October decline. The level of sales in November was off by 71% from the July 2005 peak and sales fell short of Consensus expectations for 415,000.
The m/m change in sales continued mixed by region. Sales in the West rose 11.0% and reversed their October decline. Sales in the Northeast also were up by 14.3% for the second consecutive monthly increase. Working the other way were sales in the Midwest which fell 16.4% to a new low and sales in the South also fell 7.1%, also to a new low.
The median price for a new single-family home gained back more than half of an October decline. The rise to $220,400, nevertheless, left them still off 11.5% y/y. For October, the decline in home prices about matched the 7.5% drop reported by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (FHFA). The FHFA figures, (formerly the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), as well as the Census Dept. figures, are available in Haver's USECON database.
The number of new homes for purchase again fell sharply, by 7.0% (-25.5% y/y). That reduced the inventory of unsold homes to the lowest level since early-2004. In each of the country's regions, the inventory is down 20% to 30% during the last year.
The month's supply of new homes for sale was about unchanged m/m at 11.5.
| US New Homes | November | October | Y/Y (%) | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales (SAAR, 000s) | 407 | 419 | -35.3 | 768 | 1,049 | 1,279 |
| Northeast | 40 | 35 | -27.3 | 64 | 64 | 81 |
| Midwest | 56 | 67 | -34.9 | 118 | 161 | 203 |
| South | 210 | 226 | -38.1 | 408 | 559 | 638 |
| West | 101 | 91 | -32.2 | 178 | 266 | 356 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 220,400 | 214,600 | -11.5 | 243,742 | 243,067 | 234,208 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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