Economy in Brief

Seemingly, no one is worried about inflation. The ratcheting up in oil prices is not having an impact on headline prices. In Germany, the HICP fell by 0.8% in July after rising by 0.5% in June, driving the year-on-year HICP to a flat [...]

• Oil prices improve again. • Nonoil prices increase steadily. Import prices increased 0.7% (-3.3% y/y) during July following an unrevised 1.4% June gain. A 0.5% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During [...]

• State initial jobless claims declined to 963,000 in the week ending August 8, the lowest level since March 14. • Federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance new filers decreased to 488,622. • Continuing claims for state programs down [...]

• Monthly budget deficit pulls fiscal YTD deficit to $2.807 trillion. • Receipts weaken while outlays surge. The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $63.0 billion budget deficit last month, compared to [...]

• Core goods & services pricing power firms. • Energy prices continue to strengthen. • Food prices ease. Pricing power at the retail level picked up last month as economic activity overall recovered in the spring. The Consumer Price [...]

There are at least two views of the ongoing European recovery in production. One is expressed by the chart. It shows a relatively strong V-shaped rebound but one that leaves output still declining on balance in each major sector [...]

• Mortgage applications rose 6.8% in week ending August 7. • A 9.1% increase in refinance applications led the increase. Purchase applications were up 2.0%. • Major mortgage interest rates fell to new lows for the history of the [...]

ZEW expectations have been high for several months. They were last negative in March then swung about 75 points in one month to hold to a positive reading in April. Despite different country and area experiences, the positive readings [...]