Global| Aug 12 2020U.S. Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Monthly budget deficit pulls fiscal YTD deficit to $2.807 trillion. • Receipts weaken while outlays surge. The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $63.0 billion budget deficit last month, compared to [...]
• Monthly budget deficit pulls fiscal YTD deficit to $2.807 trillion.
• Receipts weaken while outlays surge.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $63.0 billion budget deficit last month, compared to a $119.7 billion deficit twelve months earlier. The deficit's decline largely reflected an inflow of tax payments, delayed due to the coronavirus outbreak. The Action Economics Survey anticipated an $220.0 billion deficit. Since the start of the fiscal year, which began in October, the cumulative deficit increased to $2.807 trillion versus $867 billion one year ago.
So far this fiscal year, the deficit has surpassed the full fiscal year deficit of $984.2 billion set in 2019. The fiscal year-to-date deficit is roughly 15% of GDP.
On a FY basis, federal government outlays have jumped 51.1% so far this year. The increase in outlays was driven by a 148% jump in income security payments that reflected a higher unemployment rate accompanied by payments for the government's Paycheck Protection Plan. Defense outlays grew a lessened 7.1% y/y and health care outlays rose an accelerated 29.3% y/y in FY20. Medicare payment growth jumped to 27.7% y/y.
Overall revenues have fallen 1.3% so far this year. The recession lowered individual income tax receipts by 5.0% y/y. Corporate tax receipts fell a bit more sharply. Growth in social insurance tax payments was stable at 4.9% y/y and the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 0.6% so far in FY 2020.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts as well as CBO forecasts are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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