Economy in Brief

• Consumer spending continues to strengthen. • Discretionary spending growth remains firm. Total retail sales, including food service establishments, increased 7.5% during June following a record 18.2% May increase, revised from [...]

• State initial jobless claims edged down to a still extremely-elevated 1.300 million in the week ending July 11. • Federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance new filers decline to 928,488. • Continuing claims for state programs decline [...]

• Higher oil prices add to earlier gains. • Nonoil prices improve again. • Export prices strengthen. Import prices improved 1.4% last month following a 0.8% gain during May, revised from 1.0%. A 1.0% rise had been expected in the [...]

After a sharp fall in April and a plunge in March, Canadian factory orders sprang back to life in May. The 9.4% gain is sharp by historic standards, but it comes in the wake of the declines orders have seen in previous months and the [...]

• Manufacturing output gains are broad-based in June. • Auto output is exceptionally strong followed by high-tech production. • Capacity utilization markedly increases. Industrial production increased 5.4% in June (-10.8% y/y) after [...]

• 15-year fixed rate mortgage rate eased to another record low. • Home purchase apps fall back in the week. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index increased 5.1% (61.1% y/y) during the [...]

Economic activity in New York rose in July for the first time in five months. The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions increased 17.2 in July from -0.2 in June, -48.5 in May and a record low -78.2 in April. [...]

The three exhibits serve to summarize the thinking, assessments, and history of the ZEW financial experts on the global situation. These exhibits, beginning with the graph, show an extended period of weakening expectations, [...]