Global| Jul 15 2020U.S. Industrial Production Ramps Up for Second Consecutive Month
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Manufacturing output gains are broad-based in June. • Auto output is exceptionally strong followed by high-tech production. • Capacity utilization markedly increases. Industrial production increased 5.4% in June (-10.8% y/y) after [...]
• Manufacturing output gains are broad-based in June.
• Auto output is exceptionally strong followed by high-tech production.
• Capacity utilization markedly increases.
Industrial production increased 5.4% in June (-10.8% y/y) after an unrevised 1.4% May gain. The record 12.7% April decline was little-revised. A 4.0% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Survey.
Manufacturing production gained 7.2% in June (-11.1% y/y) after rising 3.8% in May. Output of durable goods jumped 11.7% (-14.3% y/y) led by a 105.0% surge in motor vehicles production. Despite this second straight month of triple-digit increase, motor vehicle output remained down by roughly one-quarter y/y. Capacity utilization in the auto sector was just 59.0%. Computer & electronic product production surged 5.5% (2.0% y/y) while electrical equipment output gained 1.6% (-10.1% y/y). Machinery production rose 6.4% (-15.8% y/y) and furniture output gained 5.3% (-14.0% y/y). Nondurable goods production improved 3.3% (-7.4% y/y) led by a 10.5% rise (-14.9% y/y) in apparel production. Chemical output gained 1.8% (-3.5% y/y) and petroleum & coal production increased 4.3% (-16.8% y/y).
Output of business equipment improved 11.8% (-18.2% y/y) in June after a 7.4% May increase. Information processing equipment production strengthened 7.4% (3.3% y/y) while output of transit equipment jumped by roughly two-thirds (-48.4% y/y).
Capacity utilization rose to 68.6% in June, up from 65.1% in May. The Action Economics Survey expected 67.4%. Factory sector utilization increased to 66.9% of capacity which grew a reduced 0.6% y/y. During all of 2019, manufacturing capacity grew 1.5%
Industrial production and capacity and oil prices are located in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail on production and capacity can be found in the IP database. The expectations figures come from the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 5.4 | 1.4 | -12.7 | -10.8 | 0.9 | 4.0 | 2.3 |
| Manufacturing | 7.2 | 3.8 | -15.9 | -11.1 | -0.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Durable Goods | 11.6 | 6.8 | -21.9 | -14.3 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| Motor Vehicles | 105.0 | 120.0 | -76.3 | -24.7 | -2.3 | 4.1 | -0.0 |
| Selected High Tech | 1.8 | -0.4 | -2.8 | 1.8 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 2.6 |
| Nondurable Goods | 3.4 | 1.4 | -10.0 | -7.4 | -0.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Utilities | 4.2 | -3.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | -0.8 | 4.4 | -0.8 |
| Mining | -2.9 | -6.1 | -6.8 | -16.9 | 7.1 | 12.4 | 7.4 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 68.6 | 65.1 | 64.2 | 77.7 | 77.8 | 78.7 | 76.5 |
| Manufacturing | 66.9 | 62.3 | 60.0 | 75.7 | 75.6 | 76.6 | 75.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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