Economy in Brief

Twelve of the earliest EMU members had reported IP for January. Only three of them showed a decline in January output month-to-month (Germany, Spain and Portugal). Sweden, a non-EMU country, also had an output decline. In December [...]

• Both the job openings rate & the number of openings improve slightly. • Hiring activity continues to weaken. • Layoffs & quits ease. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that on the last business day of January, the total job [...]

• Initial claims fall to lowest level in four months. • Continuing claims also post sharp decline. • Insured jobless rate drops again. The job market continues to exhibit signs of healing. Initial claims for unemployment insurance [...]

• Coronavirus relief drives spending. • Revenues begin to rise with economy. U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $310.9 billion during February compared to a deficit of $235.3 billion one year earlier. The [...]

• Refinancing applications decline as mortgage interest rates move higher. • Purchase applications continue to strengthen. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index declined 1.3% (-32.3% y/y) in the week ended [...]

• Energy prices again are strong. • Services prices heat up. • Core goods prices decline. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% (1.7% y/y) during February following an unrevised 0.3% January increase. The gain matched expectations in the [...]

Oil prices are leading inflation higher in the EMU as well a globally. Oil and other commodities are gaining pace as growth looks to be more established, as virus-fighting seems to be more effective, as vaccination progresses on a [...]

The OECD LEI continues to claw its way to higher ground. It has now risen month-to-month for eight months in a row. The LEI rose by one tick in February, by two ticks in January, and by one tick in December. While this is a steady [...]