Global| Mar 10 2021U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens in February
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Coronavirus relief drives spending. • Revenues begin to rise with economy. U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $310.9 billion during February compared to a deficit of $235.3 billion one year earlier. The [...]
• Coronavirus relief drives spending.
• Revenues begin to rise with economy.
U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $310.9 billion during February compared to a deficit of $235.3 billion one year earlier. The latest result raised the deficit for the first five months of this fiscal year to $1.047 trillion.
Federal government outlays have risen 24.7% y/y so far in FY'21. The increase was driven by a 125.0% surge in income security payments stemming from coronavirus relief, economic stimulus checks and a higher unemployment rate. Spending on health programs increased 2.6% y/y. Medicare payments declined 5.8% y/y and Social Security payments rose 4.1% y/y. Defense outlays rose 2.3% y/y so far in FY'21 but interest payments declined 14.6%.
Overall revenues have improved 5.1% y/y so far this fiscal year. Individual income tax payments rose 5.0% y/y so far in FY'21 due to improved economic growth while corporate tax payments also increased. Social insurance taxes rose 4.7% y/y, but the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 11.6% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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