Economy in Brief

The EMU PMI has a 90.6 percentile queue standing which tells us that the May composite value has been this high or higher 9.4% of the time since December of 2016. The percentile column places this month’s value in the high-low range [...]

• Existing home sales decline to lowest level in almost a year. • Inventory of unsold homes rose seasonally, but generally remains low. • Prices surge to record high. Sales of existing homes weakened during April for the third [...]

• Leaders' improvement is broad-based. • Coincident indicators increase. • Lagging indicators suggest less economic slack. The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators strengthened 1.6% (17.0% y/y) during [...]

• Headline index reverses two months of increase. • Components are mixed m/m but continue to indicate expansion. • Prices paid continue to strengthen. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Factory Sector Business Conditions Index [...]

CBI overview and Orders The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey for the industrial sector in the UK saw its total orders reading push up to a +17 net reading in May. This net index (a plus/minus diffusion index) is at its [...]

• Initial claims fall to yet another pandemic low. • But state continuing claims and insured unemployment rate rise. • PUA and PEUC continuing claims turn back down. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 34,000 in the week [...]

The chart above on auto registration really makes all the points you need on this month’s report. While we are schooled to look at percentage changes because they are fairer comparisons over time and free us of some the biases of [...]

• The volume of all applications remains well below January highs. • Refinancings increase, but purchase applications decline. • Mortgage interest rates edge higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Loan Applications Index increased [...]