U.S. Personal Spending & Income Growth Slow
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Spending slowdown includes fewer durable goods outlays.
- Core price inflation remains strong.
- Wage & salary growth moderates.
Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.6% (13.5% y/y) during November after surging 1.4% in October, revised from 1.3%. A 0.6% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Adjusted for price inflation, spending held steady (7.4% y/y) after rising 0.7% in October.
Real spending on durable goods declined 1.0% in November (+7.7% y/y) led by a 2.4% fall (-2.3% y/y) in spending on autos, while furniture & appliance purchases eased 0.7% (+7.5% y/y). Real purchases of recreational goods & vehicles weakened 0.6% (+13.8% y/y). Real nondurable goods fell 0.6% (+8.1% y/y), reflecting a 2.3% decline (+17.8% y/y) in clothing outlays. Real gasoline & oil spending weakened 1.2% (+12.9% y/y), while food & beverage expenditures held steady (+4.8% y/y). Real outlays on services posted a 0.5% November gain (7.1% y/y) after two months of 0.4% increase. Real recreation services outlays surged 1.2% (27.4% y/y) while spending at hotels and restaurants rose 0.6% (27.2% y/y). Real health care outlays edged 0.3% higher (3.3% y/y) while housing & utilities spending rose 0.6% (1.7% y/y) in November. Real transportation service outlays held steady (29.1% y/y) after rising 0.5% in October.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.6% last month (5.7% y/y) following a 0.7% gain. The price index excluding food and energy rose 0.5% in November raising the y/y increase to 4.7%, the strongest gain since February 1989. Durable goods prices rose 0.4% (9.7% y/y) owing to a 1.7% surge (20.6% y/y) in motor vehicle prices. Nondurable goods prices gained 1.2% (7.9% y/y) for the second straight month reflecting a 5.8% rise in gasoline prices (56.7% y/y). The services price index rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y), the quickest increase since March of this year. Energy prices overall jumped 3.6% (34.0% y/y), the sixth straight month of strong increase. Food & beverage prices rose 0.7% (5.6% y/y).
Personal income rose 0.4% (7.4% y/y) in November. A 0.4% rise had been expected. Wages & salaries rose 0.5% last month (8.9% y/y) and rental income strengthened 1.0% (5.9% y/y). Earnings on assets improved 0.3% (2.6% y/y) as dividend income increased 0.2% (3.1% y/y) and interest income rose 0.3% (2.3% y/y). Proprietors earnings declined 0.3% (+9.7% y/y). Disposable personal income increased 0.4% (5.8% y/y) in November for the second straight month. Adjusted for price inflation, disposable income declined 0.2% (0.0% y/y), down for the fourth straight month.
The personal savings rate fell to 6.9% in November from 7.1% in October. It was down from a high of 33.8% in April of last year. The level of personal savings fell 2.8% last month and has fallen 44.2% during the last twelve months.
The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
