Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080826a.jpg" width="353">
The pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell another six cents last week to $3.69 per gallon, according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey. The price has now fallen by 43 cents, or 10.4%, from the peak in early July. Nevertheless, gasoline prices still are one-third higher than last summer. For all grades of gasoline the average price fell six cents to $3.74 per gallon.
Yesterday the spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell to $2.82 per gallon. That was versus last week&#39;s average of $2.86.
Weekly gasoline prices can be found in Haver&#39;s WEEKLY database, daily prices are in the DAILY database.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080826b.jpg" width="353">
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the demand for gasoline rose a slight 0.2% during the last four weeks but remained down 1.9% from a year earlier.
The DOE figures are available in Haver&#39;s OILWKLY database.
The price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil ticked up last week to an average $115.60 per barrel. That&#39;s down from the high early last month of $142.46. The price was, however, still up by two-thirds from last summer.
Prices for natural gas fell again w/w to an average $7.93 per mmbtu (+33.6% y/y). The high for natural gas prices was in early-July at $13.19/mmbtu.
Fueling Expected Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20080901/cover.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W4/@W4.HTM">Weekly Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">08/25/08</th>
<th scope="col">08/18/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon)</td>
<td>3.69</td>
<td>3.74</td>
<td>34.0%</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>2.57</td>
<td>2.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI&nbsp; ($ per bbl.)</td>
<td>115.60</td>
<td>114.45</td>
<td>64.5%</td>
<td>72.25</td>
<td>66.12</td>
<td>56.60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell another six cents last week to $3.69 per gallon, according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey. The price has now fallen by 43 cents, or 10.4%, from the peak in early July. [...]

U.S. Gasoline Prices Fell Further

The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose a surprising 9.6% this month after a moderate 1.8% July gain. The rise contrasted with Consensus expectations for just a modest increase. The increase was fueled by a 23.7% [...]

Consumer Confidence Up in August

Robert Brusca

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825g.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Not that SPAIN is an inflation
bellwether but a 23-year high is a
23-year high -- Soaring energy costs sent Spanish producer
price inflation to a 23 ½ year high of 10.1 percent in July. Many are
calling this the peak in inflation. With energy prices as the culprit
and world energy prices having moved off-peak, that bet seems a good
one. Inflation in Spain, as in the rest of Europe, has been propelled
by a 30 percent rise in energy prices. In July the headline rate was
the greatest annual increase since November 1984 and it compared with a
9 percent rate of increase in June. Producer
prices rose 1.3 percent month on month, compared to 1.4 percent in
June. Since July lower consumer goods demand and a housing and credit
crisis add to lower world oil prices as reasons for Spain&#8217;s inflation
rate to abate.
Still e-Zoners have their lingering concerns. In Jackson Hole
Wyoming as the KC Fed&#8217;s conference disbanded, Italy&#8217;s central back head
Mario Draghi warned that if central banks became too preoccupied with
financial stability they could lose their grip on inflation. Draghi
argued that price stability was the true key to getting economies back
on track. Clearly central bankers have a lot on their minds in addition
to what is on their plates.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="col"> Spain PPI</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">m/m</td>
<td colspan="4">Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">SPAIN</td>
<td>Jul-08</td>
<td>Jun-08</td>
<td>May-08</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-Mo</td>
<td>Yr/Yr</td>
<td>Y/Y Yr Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>15.4%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Investment</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">HIPPXConstruction</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Not that SPAIN is an inflation bellwether but a 23-year high is a 23-year high -- Soaring energy costs sent Spanish producer price inflation to a 23 ˝ year high of 10.1 percent in July. Many are calling this the peak in inflation. [...]

Spain's PPI Surges

Louise Curley

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825e.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reported that real GDP in
the United Kingdom in the second quarter of this year was unchanged
from the first quarter. Consumption expenditures were little changed as
household consumption expenditures were down slightly by 0.06% and
government consumption expenditures up slightly by 0.4%. A substantial
improvement in the balance of trade in goods and services and a
increase in inventories were offset by an equally large decline in
gross fixed capital formation as a result of the declines in
investments in dwellings and in business and government capital
outlays. The first chart shows the quarter-to-quarter and the
year-to-year changes in GDP.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
In terms of business activity, the production industries declined
0.8% in the second quarter, following a 0.2% decline in the first
quarter. Construction was down 1.1%. The service industries managed a
slight increase of 0.2%. The second chart shows the changes in the
production and the services areas.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">UNITED KINGDOM&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2008</th>
<th scope="col">Q1&nbsp;2008&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q4&nbsp;2007&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q4&nbsp;2007&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Real GDP Q/Q Change</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>3.06</td>
<td>2.92</td>
<td>1.84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Y/Y Change</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Real &nbsp;GVA&nbsp; Q/Q Change</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>2.99</td>
<td>2.97</td>
<td>1.90</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Production</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Construction</td>
<td>-1.1</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reported that real GDP in the United Kingdom in the second quarter of this year was unchanged from the first quarter. Consumption expenditures were little changed as household consumption [...]

GDP in the United Kingdom Flat in the Second Quarter

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825c.jpg" width="353">
For July, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank indicated that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) weakened slightly. The reading of -0.67 was lower than the revised figure of -0.59 in June.
The three-month moving average of the index, however, improved somewhat to -0.80 from -0.94 during the prior month. The figures were the least negative since January.
An index level at or below -0.70 typically has indicated negative U.S. economic growth. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth of roughly 3%. During the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The complete CFNAI report is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_august2008.pdf">here</a> and the historical data are available in Haver&#39;s SURVEYS database.
The components of the July index were mostly unchanged from June.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825d.jpg" width="353">
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production &amp; income, the labor market, personal consumption &amp; housing, manufacturing &amp; trade sales, and inventories &amp; orders.
In a separate survey, the Chicago Fed indicated that its Midwest manufacturing index improved in June to its best level since March. A rise in the auto sector sub-component was offset by deterioration the steel, machinery and resource sector indexes.
Reducing Systemic Risk is Friday&#39;s speech by Fed ChairmanBen S. Bernanke at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City&#39;s Annual Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming and it can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20080822a.htm">here</a>.
Creating value-based competition in heath care from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflseptember2008_254a.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">Chicago Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">July &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>-0.67</td>
<td>-0.59</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>-0.43</td>
<td>-0.04</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; 3-Month Average</td>
<td>-0.80</td>
<td>-0.94</td>
<td>-0.13</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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For July, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank indicated that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) weakened slightly. The reading of -0.67 was lower than the revised figure of -0.59 in June. The three-month moving average of the index, [...]

Chicago Fed Index Slightly Weaker in July

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825a.jpg" width="353">
The level of existing homes rose 3.1% last month to 5.00 million. The figure, reported by the National Association of Realtors, more than made up a 2.8% decline during June and the rise lifted sales to the highest level since February. The figure was firmer than Consensus expectations for a selling rate of 4.91M homes. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
Sales of existing single-family homes also made up (most) of their June decline and rose 3.1%. These sales (which have a longer history than the total) were still near the lowest level since early-1998.
By region, home sales in the West rose a sharp 9.7% (+0.9% y/y). They were up by more than one-quarter from last October&#39;s low. Sales in the Northeast also were firm and rose 5.9%. In the Midwest, however, sales posted only a modest 0.9% increase and in the South sales ticked 0.5% lower. These sales remained near the lowest level since 2000.
Median home prices last month reversed just some of their June rise with a 1.3% decline. Nevertheless, prices were up 8.6% from the February low.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825b.jpg" width="353">
The number of unsold homes (condos &amp; single-family) on the market rose 3.9% from June (2.4% y/y). At the current sales rate the inventory rose slightly to an 11.2 months supply which is the record high for this series. For single-family homes, however, the inventory was unchanged m/m (1.8% y/y) and that amounted to 10.6 months supply at the current sales rate. That was still near the highest supply since 1985.
Divorcing Money from Monetary Policy from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/forthcoming/0808keis.pdf">here</a>.
Signal or Noise? Implications of the Term Premium for Recession Forecasting, also from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is available <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/08v14n1/0807rose.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Existing Home Sales (Thous)</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">y/y %</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">July &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>5,000</td>
<td>-13.2</td>
<td>4,850</td>
<td>5,760</td>
<td>5,672</td>
<td>6,508</td>
<td>7,076</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>900</td>
<td>-11.8</td>
<td>850</td>
<td>1,020</td>
<td>1,008</td>
<td>1,090</td>
<td>1,168</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>1,120</td>
<td>-17.0</td>
<td>1,110</td>
<td>1,350</td>
<td>1,331</td>
<td>1,491</td>
<td>1,589</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>1,850</td>
<td>-18.1</td>
<td>1,860</td>
<td>2,260</td>
<td>2,240</td>
<td>2,576</td>
<td>2,704</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>1,130</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>1,030</td>
<td>1,120</td>
<td>1,093</td>
<td>1,353</td>
<td>1,617</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Single-Family</td>
<td>4,390</td>
<td>-12.4</td>
<td>4,260</td>
<td>5,010</td>
<td>4,958</td>
<td>5,703</td>
<td>6,181</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Median Price, Total, $</td>
<td>212,400</td>
<td>-7.1</td>
<td>215,100</td>
<td>228,600</td>
<td>216,617</td>
<td>222,000</td>
<td>218,217</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The level of existing homes rose 3.1% last month to 5.00 million. The figure, reported by the National Association of Realtors, more than made up a 2.8% decline during June and the rise lifted sales to the highest level since [...]

U.S. Existing Home Sales Highest Since February

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
For July, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank indicated that its
National Activity Index (CFNAI) weakened slightly. The reading of -0.67
was lower than the revised figure of -0.59 in June.
The three-month moving average of the index, however, improved
somewhat to -0.80 from -0.94 during the prior month. The figures were
the least negative since January.
An index level at or below -0.70 typically has indicated
negative U.S. economic growth. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that
the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth of
roughly 3%. During the last twenty years there has been a 68%
correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The complete CFNAI report is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_august2008.pdf">here</a>
and the historical data are available in Haver's SURVEYS
database.
The components of the July index were mostly unchanged from
June.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic
activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories:
production &amp; income, the labor market, personal consumption
&amp; housing, manufacturing &amp; trade sales, and inventories
&amp; orders.
In a separate survey, the Chicago Fed indicated that its
Midwest manufacturing index improved in June to its best level since
March. A rise in the auto sector sub-component was offset by
deterioration the steel, machinery and resource sector indexes.
Reducing Systemic Risk is Friday's speech
by Fed ChairmanBen S. Bernanke at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas
City's Annual Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming and it can be
found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20080822a.htm">here</a>.
Creating value-based competition in heath care
from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflseptember2008_254a.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">Chicago
Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">July '07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>-0.67</td>
<td>-0.59</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>-0.43</td>
<td>-0.04</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; 3-Month Average</td>
<td>-0.80</td>
<td>-0.94</td>
<td>-0.13</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Existing Home Sales Highest
Since February 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> August 25, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The level of existing homes rose 3.1% last
month to 5.00 million. The figure, reported by the National Association
of Realtors, more than made up a 2.8% decline during June and the rise
lifted sales to the highest level since February. The figure was firmer
than Consensus expectations for a selling rate of 4.91M homes. Total
sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
Sales of existing single-family homes also made up (most) of
their June decline and rose 3.1%. These sales (which have a longer
history than the total) were still near the lowest level since
early-1998.
By region, home sales in the West rose a sharp 9.7% (+0.9%
y/y). They were up by more than one-quarter from last October's low.
Sales in the Northeast also were firm and rose 5.9%. In the Midwest,
however, sales posted only a modest 0.9% increase and in the South
sales ticked 0.5% lower. These sales remained near the lowest level
since 2000.
Median home prices last month reversed
just some of their June rise with a 1.3% decline. Nevertheless, prices
were up 8.6% from the February low.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The number of unsold homes (condos &amp; single-family) on
the market rose 3.9% from June (2.4% y/y). At the current sales rate
the inventory rose slightly to an 11.2 months supply which is the
record high for this series. For single-family homes, however, the
inventory was unchanged m/m (1.8% y/y) and that amounted to 10.6 months
supply at the current sales rate. That was still near the highest
supply since 1985.
Divorcing Money from Monetary Policy from
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/forthcoming/0808keis.pdf">here</a>.
Signal or Noise? Implications of the Term Premium for
Recession Forecasting, also from the Federal Reserve Bank of
New York, is available <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/08v14n1/0807rose.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Existing
Home Sales (Thous)</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">y/y %</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">July '07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>5,000</td>
<td>-13.2</td>
<td>4,850</td>
<td>5,760</td>
<td>5,672</td>
<td>6,508</td>
<td>7,076</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>900</td>
<td>-11.8</td>
<td>850</td>
<td>1,020</td>
<td>1,008</td>
<td>1,090</td>
<td>1,168</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>1,120</td>
<td>-17.0</td>
<td>1,110</td>
<td>1,350</td>
<td>1,331</td>
<td>1,491</td>
<td>1,589</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>1,850</td>
<td>-18.1</td>
<td>1,860</td>
<td>2,260</td>
<td>2,240</td>
<td>2,576</td>
<td>2,704</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>1,130</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>1,030</td>
<td>1,120</td>
<td>1,093</td>
<td>1,353</td>
<td>1,617</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Single-Family</td>
<td>4,390</td>
<td>-12.4</td>
<td>4,260</td>
<td>5,010</td>
<td>4,958</td>
<td>5,703</td>
<td>6,181</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Median Price, Total, $</td>
<td>212,400</td>
<td>-7.1</td>
<td>215,100</td>
<td>228,600</td>
<td>216,617</td>
<td>222,000</td>
<td>218,217</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
GDP in the United Kingdom Flat in
the Second Quarter 
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise
Curley</a> August 25, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825e.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reported that real GDP
in the United Kingdom in the second quarter of this year was unchanged
from the first quarter. Consumption expenditures were little changed as
household consumption expenditures were down slightly by 0.06% and
government consumption expenditures up slightly by 0.4%. A substantial
improvement in the balance of trade in goods and services and a
increase in inventories were offset by an equally large decline in
gross fixed capital formation as a result of the declines in
investments in dwellings and in business and government capital
outlays. The first chart shows the quarter-to-quarter and the
year-to-year changes in GDP.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
In terms of business activity, the production industries
declined 0.8% in the second quarter, following a 0.2% decline in the
first quarter. Construction was down 1.1%. The service industries
managed a slight increase of 0.2%. The second chart shows the changes
in the production and the services areas.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">UNITED
KINGDOM&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2008</th>
<th scope="col">Q1&nbsp;2008&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q4&nbsp;2007&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q4&nbsp;2007&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Real GDP Q/Q Change</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>3.06</td>
<td>2.92</td>
<td>1.84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Y/Y Change</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Real
&nbsp;GVA&nbsp; Q/Q Change</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>2.99</td>
<td>2.97</td>
<td>1.90</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Production</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Construction</td>
<td>-1.1</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Spain&#8217;s PPI Surges 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> August 25, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825g.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Not that SPAIN is an inflation
bellwether but a 23-year high is a 23-year high -- Soaring
energy costs sent Spanish producer price inflation to a 23 ½ year high
of 10.1 percent in July. Many are calling this the peak in inflation.
With energy prices as the culprit and world energy prices having moved
off-peak, that bet seems a good one. Inflation in Spain, as in the rest
of Europe, has been propelled by a 30 percent rise in energy prices. In
July the headline rate was the greatest annual increase since November
1984 and it compared with a 9 percent rate of increase in June. Producer prices rose 1.3 percent month
on month, compared to 1.4 percent in June. Since July lower consumer
goods demand and a housing and credit crisis add to lower world oil
prices as reasons for Spain&#8217;s inflation rate to abate.
Still e-Zoners have their lingering concerns. In Jackson Hole
Wyoming as the KC Fed&#8217;s conference disbanded, Italy&#8217;s central back head
Mario Draghi warned that if central banks became too preoccupied with
financial stability they could lose their grip on inflation. Draghi
argued that price stability was the true key to getting economies back
on track. Clearly central bankers have a lot on their minds in addition
to what is on their plates.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="col"> Spain PPI</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">m/m</td>
<td colspan="4">Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">SPAIN</td>
<td>Jul-08</td>
<td>Jun-08</td>
<td>May-08</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-Mo</td>
<td>Yr/Yr</td>
<td>Y/Y Yr Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>15.4%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Investment</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">HIPPXConstruction</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080822b.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Import growth in the Euro Area is still firm while export
growth is fading. Import growth is of course is supported by strength
in oil imports, much of that on the price side. For manufactured goods
both exports and imports are weak over 12 months with imports falling
by 1.8% and exports up by a scant 0.8%.
The accompanying chart tells the story of the trends with
trade deficits posted in five of the past seven months. Europe is
slowing down. Europe&#8217;s exports are slowing down. It&#8217;s a strong euro,
weak domestic growth and a weakening global economy at work that is
producing these results.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="7" scope="col">Euro Area
15-Trade Trends for Goods </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="2">m/m%</td>
<td colspan="4">% Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Jun-08</td>
<td>May-08</td>
<td>3M</td>
<td>6M</td>
<td>12M</td>
<td>12M Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance*</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; (2,954)</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; (1,035)</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; (861)</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; (440)</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; 1,543</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; (1,610)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="7">Exports</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All exports</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>-4.7%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>11.3%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Food and drinks</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>13.5%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>11.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Raw materials</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>23.4%</td>
<td>31.3%</td>
<td>10.4%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Other</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>-5.1%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>9.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">MFG</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>11.2%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>13.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="7">Imports</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All imports</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
<td>14.8%</td>
<td>14.1%</td>
<td>10.6%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Food and drinks</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>-2.1%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Raw materials</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>15.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Other</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>16.0%</td>
<td>15.6%</td>
<td>11.2%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">MFG</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>9.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">*Millions of
Euros; mo or period
average</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Import growth in the Euro Area is still firm while export growth is fading. Import growth is of course is supported by strength in oil imports, much of that on the price side. For manufactured goods both exports and imports are weak [...]

Euro Area Export Trends are Lagging

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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250430Q1.jpg

Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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250430S1.jpg

- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

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High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: August 2008

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U.S. Gasoline Prices Fell Further

Consumer Confidence Up in August

Spain's PPI Surges

GDP in the United Kingdom Flat in the Second Quarter

Chicago Fed Index Slightly Weaker in July

U.S. Existing Home Sales Highest Since February

Chicago Fed Index Slightly Weaker in July

Euro Area Export Trends are Lagging