Global| Aug 22 2008Euro Area Export Trends are Lagging
Summary
Import growth in the Euro Area is still firm while export growth is fading. Import growth is of course is supported by strength in oil imports, much of that on the price side. For manufactured goods both exports and imports are weak [...]
Import growth in the Euro Area is still firm while export growth is fading. Import growth is of course is supported by strength in oil imports, much of that on the price side. For manufactured goods both exports and imports are weak over 12 months with imports falling by 1.8% and exports up by a scant 0.8%.
The accompanying chart tells the story of the trends with trade deficits posted in five of the past seven months. Europe is slowing down. Europe’s exports are slowing down. It’s a strong euro, weak domestic growth and a weakening global economy at work that is producing these results.
| Euro Area 15-Trade Trends for Goods | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m/m% | % Saar | |||||
| Jun-08 | May-08 | 3M | 6M | 12M | 12M Ago | |
| Balance* | €€ (2,954) | €€ (1,035) | €€ (861) | €€ (440) | €€ 1,543 | €€ (1,610) |
| Exports | ||||||
| All exports | 1.4% | -4.7% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 4.2% | 10.1% |
| Food and drinks | -0.4% | -0.7% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 11.4% |
| Raw materials | 2.4% | -1.1% | 23.4% | 31.3% | 10.4% | 11.1% |
| Other | 1.5% | -5.1% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 9.9% |
| MFG | 1.1% | -3.8% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 0.8% | 13.3% |
| Imports | ||||||
| All imports | 2.9% | -3.0% | 14.8% | 14.1% | 10.6% | 3.8% |
| Food and drinks | 0.6% | 0.2% | 7.9% | -2.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% |
| Raw materials | -1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 15.5% |
| Other | 3.2% | -3.3% | 16.0% | 15.6% | 11.2% | 3.0% |
| MFG | 0.3% | -1.3% | -0.3% | 3.8% | -1.7% | 9.9% |
| *Millions of Euros; mo or period average | ||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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