Global| Aug 25 2008Chicago Fed Index Slightly Weaker in July
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
For July, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank indicated that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) weakened slightly. The reading of -0.67 was lower than the revised figure of -0.59 in June. The three-month moving average of the index, [...]
For July, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank indicated that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) weakened slightly. The reading of -0.67 was lower than the revised figure of -0.59 in June.
The three-month moving average of the index, however, improved somewhat to -0.80 from -0.94 during the prior month. The figures were the least negative since January.
An index level at or below -0.70 typically has indicated negative U.S. economic growth. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth of roughly 3%. During the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The complete CFNAI report is available here and the historical data are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
The components of the July index were mostly unchanged from June.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production & income, the labor market, personal consumption & housing, manufacturing & trade sales, and inventories & orders.
In a separate survey, the Chicago Fed indicated that its Midwest manufacturing index improved in June to its best level since March. A rise in the auto sector sub-component was offset by deterioration the steel, machinery and resource sector indexes.Reducing Systemic Risk is Friday's speech by Fed ChairmanBen S. Bernanke at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Annual Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming and it can be found here.
Creating value-based competition in heath care from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
| Chicago Fed | July | June | July '07 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.67 | -0.59 | 0.09 | -0.43 | -0.04 | 0.27 |
| 3-Month Average | -0.80 | -0.94 | -0.13 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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