GlobalThe shift toward a soft landing consensus that had been in vogue since the start of this year has suffered some setbacks over the past two weeks. Last week’s strong US jobs data combined with this week’s firmer-than-expected US CPI report have been the principal challenges to that view. Still-hawkish communications in the meantime from a number of central bankers have additionally thrown some salt onto the wounds. Our first two charts this week home in on the recent evolution of consensus growth forecasts for 2023 and how these contrast with high-frequency indicators of economic activity. China’s re-opening is another closely-watched theme at present and we offer some perspectives on this in our third and fourth charts. Then, returning to the US, we contrast indications about recession risks from a couple of indicators in our fifth chart. And finally we make a nod to this week’s UK labour market report and its suggestion that wage pressures could now be easing, in our sixth chart.
USA| Feb 16 2023U.S. Producer Prices Surprise to Upside in January
- Much larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m increase in the headline index.
- Good prices rebounded sharply; services prices posted same rise as in December.
- Headline and core annual rates fell further to slowest pace since March 2021.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Feb 16 2023U.S. Housing Starts Decline in January
- Single-family and multi-family starts weaken.
- Starts are mixed across the country.
- Building permits are little changed.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Feb 16 2023Philadelphia Fed Factory Index Tumbles in February
- Index plunges to lowest level since 2020.
- New orders, shipments and employment readings weaken.
- Prices paid index remains near recent low.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Feb 16 2023Jobless Claims Hold Steady in Latest Week
- Initial claims indeed nearly steady for last 6 weeks.
- Continued weeks claimed up in latest week, but down from mid-December.
- New Jersey has highest state rate, with Virginia and Alabama the lowest.
In January, Japan's exports fell by 6.3% month-to-month as imports fell by 5.1%. Export and import trends in Japan show a sliding trend. Nominal exports are stronger by 4.2% over 12 months, but they're falling at a 15.3% annual rate over six months and at a 36.7 annual rate over three months. Imports are higher by 14.2% over 12 months, but over six months they're declining at a 17.4% annual rate and over three months they're falling at a 43% annual rate. Over 12 months imports are stronger than exports, but their annual rate of change is weaker than exports over six-month and three-month horizons.
Within the past year, the trends for the yen have shifted. Against the dollar, the yen is lower by 13.6% over 12 months; however, over six months the yen is rising at an 8.9% annual rate and over three months it's rising at a 38% annual rate. The broad trade weighted yen, gauged against multiple currencies, has fallen by 8.9% over 12 months; it's rising at an 8.3% annual rate over six months; it’s up at a 30% annual rate over three months. The yen's movements against the dollar alone are a little bit more extreme, but its movements against the dollar and other currencies are roughly in sync over these periods.
Export and import prices have been through a bit of a roller coaster; both export and import prices have fallen in each of the last three months and January export prices fell by 1.5% as import prices fell by 2.5%. Over 12 months export prices are higher by 9.2%, but they're falling at a 6.2% annual rate over six months and falling at a 20.5% annual rate over three months. For imports, prices are up 18.2% over 12 months, then fall at a 13.9% pace over six months, and fall at a 36.9% annual rate over three months.
Nominal export and import flows, adjusted for price changes to convert them to real terms, show that the trade picture changes slightly for exports, and more substantially for imports compared to nominal trends. Real exports fall by 4.6% over 12 months, fall at a 9.6% annual rate over six months and fall at a 20.4% annual rate over three months. Real imports fall by 3.4% over 12 months, by 4.1% over six months, and by 9.7% over three months.
USA| Feb 15 2023U.S. Retail Sales Surge in January
- Increases are widespread.
- Discretionary outlays lead the upturn.
- Gasoline spending is unchanged.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Feb 15 2023U.S. Industrial Production Disappoints in January
- IP +0.03% in Jan., -1.0% in Dec. (downwardly revised from -0.7%), -0.6% in Nov.
- Manufacturing IP (+1.0% in Jan.; downwardly revised for Dec.) rebounds after two straight m/m drops, w/ durable goods up 0.8% and nondurable goods up 1.1%.
- Utilities output decreases a record 9.9% after two consecutive m/m rises while mining activity increases 2.0% vs. two successive m/m declines.
- Consumer goods output falls for the fourth time in five months, but business equipment rebounds following two straight m/m drops.
- Capacity utilization dips 0.1%-pt. to 78.3%; mfg. capacity utilization rises 0.6%-pt. to 77.7%.
- of2728Go to 361 page