Jobless Claims Hold Steady in Latest Week
Summary
- Initial claims indeed nearly steady for last 6 weeks.
- Continued weeks claimed up in latest week, but down from mid-December.
- New Jersey has highest state rate, with Virginia and Alabama the lowest.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 194,000, seasonally adjusted, in the week ended February 11, down just 1,000 from the prior week and down 7.2% from the comparable week in 2022. The February 4 week was revised to 195,000 from 196,000 initially reported. The latest result was very close to the Action Economics Forecast Survey consensus of 198,000. Over the last four weeks, initial claims averaged 189,500, up slightly from 189,000 in the four weeks ended February 4.
In the week ended February 4, insured unemployment – also called “continued weeks claimed” -- totaled 1.696 million, up from 1.680 million the week before but down from 1.714 million in the year-ago week, or -0.9%. The four-week moving average in the February 4 week was 1.673 million, up from 1.663 million the week before.
The insured unemployment rate was 1.2% in the February 4 week, unchanged from the January 28 week and from the comparable week in 2022. This rate also prevailed during the last few months of 2019, that is, just prior to the onset of the COVID pandemic.
In the week ended January 28, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs rose 0.5% (-5.4% y/y) to 1.953 million from 1.943 million in the prior week. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release, as both programs have expired.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely across the various states. For the week ended January 28, the highest rates are in New Jersey (2.62%), Rhode Island (2.53%), California (2.28%), Minnesota (2.27%) and Massachusetts (2.21%). The lowest rates for that week were in Virginia and Alabama (0.32%), Kansas (0.41%), Florida (0.42%), North Carolina (0.43%) and New Hampshire (0.44%). Rates among other sizable states include Texas (0.95%), Pennsylvania (1.80%), New York (1.94%) and Illinois (2.08%).
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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