Chicago Fed National Activity Index Up in June but Still Negative
Summary
- CFNAI up to -0.02 in June, remaining negative for the third time in four months.
- One of four CFNAI components down m/m; two make negative contributions.
- CFNAI-MA3 slightly up to -0.05, third negative reading in four mths.; above -0.70 (recession signal).
- CFNAI Diffusion Index down to -0.03, lowest since February.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was at -0.02 in June, up from -0.19 in May (-0.10 initially) and down from +0.05 in April (+0.19 previously), today’s report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed, indicating that economic activity remained slightly below its historical trend in June but improved from May. The latest CFNAI marked the third negative reading in four months. It was above a low of -0.50 in October 2025 and a reading of -0.09 in June 2025 but below a high of +0.39 in February 2025.
The index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, inched up to -0.05 in June from -0.10 in May (-0.03 initially), registering the third negative reading in four months. It was above a low of -0.39 in October 2025 and -0.25 in June 2025 but below a high of +0.07 in February 2025. The CFNAI-MA3 is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the Chicago Fed indicates that an average reading of -0.70 or below is consistent with the economy being in a recession. Thus, the June reading suggested that the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession.
The June reading reflected a m/m decline in one of the four CFNAI key components and two negative contributions. The contribution of the Production & Income index to the CFNAI dipped to -0.05 in June, a three-month low, from -0.03 in May; it was below +0.04 in June 2025 and a high of +0.36 in February 2025 but above a low of -0.61 in January 2024. The contribution of the Sales, Orders & Inventories index increased to +0.01 in June, the first positive reading since February, from -0.09 in May; it was above a low of -0.20 in April 2025 and -0.06 in June 2025 but below a high of +0.16 in March 2025. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours index contributed -0.04 in June, unchanged from May; it was above its recent low of -0.13 in February and -0.07 in June 2025 but below its recent high of +0.05 in January. The contribution of the Personal Consumption & Housing index rose to +0.05 in June, the highest level since March 2025, from -0.03 in May; it was above a neutral value (0.00) in June 2025.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index—which measures the breadth of change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average—slipped to -0.03 in June, a four-month low, from -0.01 in May (unrevised). A string of negative readings was posted during the March 2023 to February 2026 period. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. The June reading was above a low of -0.56 in October 2025 and -0.39 in June 2025 but below a high of +0.14 in September 2022.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
These figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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