Economy in Brief: 2019

The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions for October rose to 4.0 after falling to 2.0 in September. A reading of 1.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A slightly improved 30% of [...]

The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) declined 1.4% during the last four weeks. The price index was down 11.1% y/y and remained at the lowest level since [...]

Germany is renowned for its aversion to inflation. It suffered hyper-inflation in the 1920s and this experience made an indelible mark on the German psyche. That experience was extreme. And it has left Germany averse to even a whiff [...]

The National Association of Realtors reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index increased 3.3% to 160.4 during August (12.6% y/y), the third consecutive month of increase. Despite the rise, affordability [...]

Import prices increased 0.2% (-1.6% y/y) during September following a 0.2% August decline, revised from -0.5%. A 0.1% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted and do [...]

Is it possible for a policy recession to occur when successive rounds of policy-stimulus have worked to extend the economic cycle and the policy-fuel runs out or cannot be provided in the same scale? We may soon find out. The current [...]

Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased to 210,000 (-0.9% y/y) during the week ended October 5 from 220,000 in the previous week, revised from 219,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 217,000. The four-week [...]

In today's trade report, Germany logged a drop in exports of 1.8% month-to-month and of -1.1% year-on-year for August. German imports edged higher by 0.5% month-to-month while falling by 1% year-on-year. Germany's trade deficit fell [...]