Global| Oct 10 2019U.S. CPI Holds Steady; Core Prices Edge Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Consumer Price Index remained unchanged during September (1.7% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick in August. Expectations had been for a 0.1% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy rose 0.1% (2.4% [...]
The Consumer Price Index remained unchanged during September (1.7% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick in August. Expectations had been for a 0.1% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y) following three straight months of 0.3% increase. A 0.2% m/m gain had been expected.
Holding back consumer price inflation last month was a 1.4% decline (-4.8% y/y) in energy costs. It was the fourth decline in five months. Gasoline prices fell 2.4% (-8.2% y/y), also the fourth decline in five months. Fuel oil prices eased 0.8% (-8.5% y/y) after a 0.9% decline. Electricity prices held steady (0.7% y/y) after falling 0.3%. Natural gas prices fell 0.7% and were off 2.7% y/y.
Consumer goods prices excluding food & energy also were weak and declined 0.3% following two months of 0.2% increase. The y/y rise of 0.7% compared to a low of -1.0% during October 2017. Education & communications goods prices declined 1.2% (-4.7% y/y) after a 0.9% rise. Medical care goods prices fell 0.6% (-0.3% y/y) and reversed the prior two months' gain. Apparel prices fell 0.4% after a 0.2% rise. The y/y rise eased to -0.3%. Prices of new vehicles eased 0.1% (+0.1% y/y), off slightly for the third consecutive month. To the upside, household appliance prices surged 1.3%, but the 1.0% y/y rise compared to 6.8% y/y in February. Used car & truck prices rose 0.5% (4.1% y/y), strong for the fourth straight month. Furniture & bedding prices improved 0.3%. The 2.3% y/y increase compared to -0.7% y/y as of August last year. Recreation goods prices rose 0.2% for a second straight month. Their -0.2% y/y change compared to -4.0% y/y in October 2016.
Services prices increased 0.3% (2.9% y/y) for the fourth consecutive month. The cost of shelter rose 0.3% (3.5% y/y). The owners' equivalent rent of primary residences also rose 0.3% and a steady 3.4% y/y. Rents of primary residences strengthened 0.4% (3.8% y/y), the largest gain in three months. The cost of lodging away from home rebounded 2.1% (5.0% y/y) and reversed the August decline. Medical care services prices strengthened 0.4% (4.4% y/y) following a 0.9% gain. Recreation services costs held steady (1.6% y/y), though video & audio services prices gained 0.5% (1.6% y/y). Education & communication costs rose 0.1% and an easier 0.9% y/y. The cost of public transportation rose 0.2%. The 1.7% y/y increase compared to a 1.7% decline in prices last year.
Food prices rose 0.1% (1.8% y/y) in September after holding steady for three straight months. Dairy product prices increased 0.2% (1.4% y/y) but meat, poultry & fish prices eased 0.1% (+0.9% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices declined 1.0% (-0.4% y/y) while cereal & bakery product costs improved 0.5% (1.3% y/y). Egg prices surged 6.5% (-8.1% y/y). Nonalcoholic beverage prices edged 0.1% higher (1.3% y/y).
The consumer price data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (% chg) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.5 |
| Services less Energy | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Food | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Energy | -1.4 | -1.9 | 1.3 | -4.8 | 7.5 | 7.9 | -6.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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